The Russian military has increased its operational tempo in Ukraine. There is (still) no big arrow movement but a rise in activity along the frontline.
On top of this come frequent drone and missile raids deep into the territory of Ukraine. The numbers are mind boggling:
Tatarigami_UA @Tatarigami_UA – 14:49 UTC · Jul 8, 2025
Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Russia has launched 28,743 Shahed/Geran drones at Ukraine – 2,736 of them in June of this year, according to President Zelensky. …
That's nearly 100 long range drones per day which target Kiev and other bigger cities. These are by the way no longer Iran made Shahed drones but a third generation development based on the original design. These drones are now bigger. They have new engines and fly faster and higher. Their load of explosives is now about 90 kilogram, double that of the original version. For each of these drones launched against Ukraine there is an additional decoy drone flying along. The decoys look similar but are not armed and much cheaper. The are to attract the air defenses while the real drones pass through.
Recent targets have been Ukrainian refineries, industrial objects and, during the last days, recruiting offices of the Ukrainian military.
These offices are in public buildings. Their addresses are naturally known as the whole mobilization process for additional soldiers is being run by them. The recruiters are hated by the population. Ukrainians are published the addresses of mobilization offices with requests to Russia to hit them.
At the frontline the area northwest of Donetsk city is the most crucial. The Russian forces are in the process of semi-encircling Pokrovsk and Konstantynivka (see maps below).
The New York Times writes (archived) of the later one:
The city is the southern gateway to a chain of cities that form Ukraine’s last major defensive belt in Donetsk. Should it fall, nearly all cities farther north would come within range of Russian drones. It would bring Moscow closer to its long-sought goal of seizing all of Donetsk.
Russian forces have carved out a 10-mile-deep pocket around the Ukrainian troops defending Kostiantynivka, partly surrounding them from the east, south and west. Practically every movement in that pocket is targeted by Russian drones around the clock, according to a half-dozen Ukrainian soldiers and officers fighting in the area. Troops are often stranded for weeks without rotation or the possibility of evacuating the wounded.
A new class of medium range drones play a big role in this:
Ukrainian soldiers say Russia’s expanded drone strike capacity gives it an edge it did not have during previous assaults.
“Before, they could hit targets within two or three kilometers,” or less than two miles, said the commander of the unit operating crewless vehicles in the 93rd Brigade, who asked to be identified by only his first name, Oleksandr, according to military protocol. “Now, they’re striking every 10 to 20 minutes at a consistent range of 15 kilometers from the front line. Everything within that 15-kilometer zone is being destroyed.”
The progress on the map over the last six months looks slow. But this is a war of attrition and the Russian troops are only moving forward when the resistance is low.
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President Zelenski has begged U.S. President Donald Trump for more means of air defenses. He is especially asking for Patriot missiles which can take down some of the drones and missiles the Russians are using.
But Patriot missiles are scarce:
The United States only has about 25% of the Patriot missile interceptors it needs for all of the Pentagon’s military plans after burning through stockpiles in the Middle East in recent months, an alarming depletion that led to the Trump administration freezing the latest transfer of munitions to Ukraine.
Many Patriots on stock have been given to Ukraine, many have been used in recent weeks to protect Israel from Iranian revenge missiles. Production numbers are only in the hundreds per year while thousands are needed.
Yesterday Trump agreed to again deliver some weapons to Ukraine. The numbers though that can be delivered are laughable and will make no difference:
Trump told Zelensky he wants to help Ukraine's air defenses but stressed that the U.S. had to pause the latest weapons shipment to review its own stockpiles, according to two sources briefed on the call.
Two sources said Trump promised to immediately send 10 Patriot interceptors — fewer than had been planned in the paused shipment — and help to find other means of supply.
Patriot missiles have a success probability of 0.8 to 0.9. One needs to fire (at least) two at a target to be reasonably sure to destroy it. Those 10 interceptor missiles will hardly last half a night.
So no, Trump has not decided (yet) to get fully (re-)engaged in the war on Ukraine. Handing over 10 Patriot missiles is merely covering his retreat.
