On Monday the 21st of July the Ukrainian Secret Service (SBU) searched offices of the independent anti-corruption police (NABU) and anti-corruption prosecutor office (SAPO) and detained several of its investigators. A day later the Zelenski regime pushed a law through parliament which ended the independence of both entities by putting them under control of the prosecutor general.
The move had been planned for months (in Russian) but was executed in haste after NABU and SAPO had served a notices-of-investigation to people near to the president.
But Zelenski had miscalculated the step. There were highly visible local protests and the EU stepped in by threatening to withhold subsidies on which the Ukrainian state depends.
Two days after his strike against the independent anti-corruption entities Zelenski had to pull back. Today the parliament reestablished the independence of NABU and SAPO.
The Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian parliament) has passed a law restoring powers to Ukraine’s key anti-corruption agencies – the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) and the Specialised Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO).
A total of 331 MPs voted in favour of the presidential bill [..]. No MPs voted against the bill, and no one abstained. Nine MPs did not vote.
Under the new law, SAPO will now independently oversee the procedural supervision of NABU investigations – and is no longer under the control of the Prosecutor General.
The new law was signed by the president and is now in force.
By his misstep and its retraction from it Zelenski demonstrated a fatal weakness which his political enemies will soon use to end his control of the country.
Several additional corruption investigations against Zelenski’s entourage are pending. The most severe one is against Timur Mindich, a longtime business partner of the president nicknamed “Zelenski’s wallet”. NABU had wiretapped Mindich’s apartment which was used by Zelenski and others to discuss ‘businesses’. (Mindich’s bugged luxury apartment in Kiev is said to include a room with a golden toilet.)
With the independence of NABU and SAPO restored, new investigations against Mindich and other people near to Zelenski, and potentially against himself, are likely to soon be published.
They will demonstrate that the president has lost the ability to protect those who work with him.
In consequence the majority of his party in parliament is shrinking (machine translation):
People’s Deputy Dmytro Kostyuk announced from the rostrum of the Verkhovna Rada that he was leaving the Servants of the People faction due to the situation with the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine.
According to him, deputies were forced to vote for the draft law on depriving the NABU and SAPO of their powers, threatening them with criminal cases. He himself also supported this bill a week ago.
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Now the faction formally consists of 231 deputies, which gives “Servant of the People” the rights of a mono-majority coalition. [..] However, if six people leave the faction, its number will be reduced, it will be less than the required 226 votes, and thus the ruling mono-majority will disappear.
The opposition, with former president Petro Poroshenko in the lead, will soon be able to clip the president’s wings.
The political chaos in Kiev is reinforced by the catastrophic situation on the battle field. There are four significant population centers which are likely to fall under Russian control within the next months.
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2. Siversk (pre-war population 10,000) – Russian forces have captured large parts of the woods north of Siversk and are now moving in from all sides.
3. Konstantinivka (pre-war population 8,500) – Russian forces are pushing west from the finally taken Chasiv-Yar agglomeration to cut the northern supply line to Konstantinivka. Russian forces southwest of the city are moving northward for the same purpose.
4. Prokovsk (pre-war population 85,000) – Ukrainian defense lines around and within the city have broken down. Russian forces are already in the city. Supply and exit routes to the north and west are barely passable.
The Ukrainian forces lack infantry. Some Ukrainian brigades have less than 100 people to man several miles long defense lines. There is a severe lack of mortar and artillery ammunition. The Russian side has more and better drones available in higher numbers. The recent re-organization of the Ukrainian army into corps sized structures has only increase the organizational chaos.
The Ukrainian army, like the Ukrainian state, is in the process of falling apart.