Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
July 11, 2025
The Europeans And The U.S. Against Russia – Who Is Really The Patsy?

Karlof1, aka Karl Sanchez, points to his translation of the latest Dmitri Trenin piece:

Yesterday, Dmitri Trenin, Director of the Institute of World Military Economics and Strategy at the Higher School of Economics, wrote an op/ed for Kommersant, “The War Will Be Long,” which was picked-up translated and altered by RT for publication today. My practice is to provide the translation of the original because of RT’s past and present manipulations that I’ve denounced every time I encounter one. IMO, Trenin makes clear that Putin knows the Outlaw US Empire’s plans, which is the basic reason why Putin doesn’t yield anything to Trump. Here’s Trenin:

The war will be long
Dmitri Trenin on the intermediate results of the "special diplomatic operation"

The war will not end in 2025. It will not end after the end of hostilities in Ukraine.

We need to realize that the current conflict is not about Ukraine as such.

This is a proxy (so far) war of the West against Russia. And this confrontation itself is part of an ongoing world war, in which the West is fighting to maintain world hegemony. This will be a long war, and the United States, with or without Trump, will remain our adversary. At stake for us in this struggle is not the status of Ukraine, but the existence of Russia. [My Emphasis]

To which English Outsider replies:

Karlof1. Thank you again for these translations and commentaries you are providing. The Trenin piece was particularly useful in that it sums up where we’re heading:-

“Even now as Russia continues to make gains on the battlefield, we see the next round set of aggravations along the Arc of Instability already forming with Moldova, Armenia, and possibly Azerbaijan. Escalation also threatens in the Baltic Sea, and I still anticipate NATO attacks on Russia’s Arctic energy infrastructure.”

Useful because one question of particular interest since well before the start of the SMO has been, what are the European politicians up to? It’s too facile to regard them as hapless Europoodles swept along in Washington’s wake. I believe they’re looking ahead to the time when Ukraine’s over and done with.

That is, hoping to revive the economy with military Keynesianism and taking us into Cold War II with, as in the previous Cold War, the emphasis on covert destabilisation activities along the perimeter of the RF and if possible within Russia itself.

The Ukrainian gamble failed. I don’t believe the European politicians see any alternative to doubling down on it.

As for the “hapless Europoodles”, it’s rare to find Americans who recognise that that’s not how the European politicians see themselves. More that they hope to lever American military and economic power in pursuit of their own objectives. For most Americans it’s usual to regard the Euros as the patsy. For the Euros, it’s always been the other way round.

b here:

In my observation the 'covert destabilisation activities along the perimeter of the RF' and within Russia itself' by the EU, U.S. and UK have never stopped. The Balkan wars and various color revolutions in eastern Europe were all part of it. There is also a constant attempt to mess up Central Asia.

While the CIA or other U.S. agencies have often led in those cases, the Europeans were nearly always involved. Last years brouhaha in Georgia also demonstrated that.

Thus one should give English Outsider's last sentence some thought:

For most Americans it’s usual to regard the Euros as the patsy. For the Euros, it’s always been the other way round.

Comments

It’s been obvious for a year that defeating Ukraine is the beginning, not the end of this conflict.
Rump Ukraine will still border Poland. And the Baltic chihuahuas aren’t going away, nor are the Swedes, Norwegians, or Finns.
This is it. Global civilizational war until hundreds of millions are dead and battles happen inside the gates of America.
Attacking Russia’s triad sent a message. The West no longer fears nuclear conflict.
Having nukes is no longer enough deterrence.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jul 11 2025 14:58 utc | 1

Indeed B.
The Ukrainian Civil War is a mere sideshow to the current Global Struggle. Moscow‘s core goals are outlined in their Dec. 2021 Peace Proposal. A core goal is the rollback of NATO to 1997 members.
My estimate is the US Federal Gov‘t will experience an insolvency crisis in 2027. That ends the Global Struggle.
No moar money
No moar wars
De-Dollarization brings Peace.

Posted by: Exile | Jul 11 2025 15:09 utc | 2

It’s not spoken about much but there has been a persistent NATO effort to stop all Russian maritime activity, not just oil.
Limiting Russia from supplying allies and bases in Africa and West Asia.
The Scandinavian countries have picked up this aspect of the project, stranding Russian scientists and ignoring old treaties.
Ukraine is a small front in the largest conflict ever. I hesitate to say the last conflict because Europeans are always ready to do it again.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jul 11 2025 15:10 utc | 3

This is good news. From an American, humanity depends on defeating the evil empire, and hopefully curing Americans’ suffering of severe Stockholm Syndrome.
Also, for the Paul Craig Roberts types who have maligned Putin for not ending the Ukraine war decisively, or soon enough, or whatever – it was always a stupid critique. If I’ve managed to realize that the “war” wasn’t the Ukraine-Russia war, but something much larger, the Russians have certainly known it for a long time. Ukraine-Russia is just one battle, one front.
It’s like Iran with Israel, Iran did not put everything into ending the 12-day “war” because it was just one battle, one front.

Posted by: HB Brian | Jul 11 2025 15:10 utc | 4

Everyone knows but reminders are helpful…
We have 2 allies, Belarus and DPRK, that’s it…

Posted by: Natalya Volkova | Jul 11 2025 15:10 utc | 5

For me, eventually the EU will break up for EU nations, well those that care about their citizens will say enough is enough, they don’t want to be funding wars that benefit the US – and this will come about once the people of Europe vote out the current crop of warmongering puppets, puppets of Israel and the USA – EU nations can’t keep funding and supporting a war on Russia and possibly hostile actions against China, and not expect living standards at home to drop drastically, which will eventually lead to Europeans taking action.
The EU needs to be broken up – before it becomes far to draconian for it to be broken up, a dissolved EU would make it harder for the US to control, or deeply influence each individual nation, and along with the dissolving of the EU, the Euro must go also.

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Jul 11 2025 15:14 utc | 6

When studying history you’re taught not to ‘think in eras’.
US foreign policy has remained the same at least since 1917 when they put divisions in Russia and did a bait-and-switch on the US public from ‘guarding supplies at Vladivostok’ to ‘regime change’. At least since that time the US has maintained hostility towards Russia and as everyone knows the British hostility goes back until at least 1820 when Colonel Wilson, the British military Attaches to Alexander I, came back gibbering about ‘Asiatic hordes’ and the British noted in alarm that Russia was capable of creating middle European allies and getting to Paris.
Since then nothing has changed. The administrations and political systems might come and go but Anglophonic subversion and sabotage of Russia has never ceased and this includes during The Second World War. It had nothing to do with Bolshevism or Communism, it had everything to do with an active Russia.
So when the USSR agreed to dismantle the frankly annoying middle European buffer states between Belarus and the Oder the USA took the opportunity, long planned-for, to destroy them in that moment of weakness. They did this by leveraging the CIA black marketeers who had cross-border contacts; many of whom went on to become the infamous ‘oligarchs’. Good old CIA/Mi6, nothing quite says ‘we bring you freedom & democracy’ like getting Russian kids hooked on heroin smuggled through Afghanistan.
I could list the long and evil count of Anglophonic meddling that’s cased literally millions of Russian deaths but I’d probably go over the word count. As you can see nothing has ever changed, the hostility is constant.

Posted by: James | Jul 11 2025 15:15 utc | 7

Posted by: Natalya Volkova | Jul 11 2025 15:10 utc | 5
########
This is the test. Allies are fickle. Liberals are poison.
Can Russia survive the crucible with minimal help?
By virtue of its size and location, this task falls to Russia like the 7 foot kid must play basketball in high school.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jul 11 2025 15:20 utc | 8

I was just in London, and took a walk along the south bank of the Thames. This takes you past the massive MI6 building, built in homage to the edifices in Fritz Lang’s film Metropolis. It is here (and at the even larger GCHQ donut in Cheltenham) where many of these war plans are hatched.
It occurred to me: the public schoolboys and Nazi fans who inhabit these buildings are weirdly unserious, and ignorant of the consequences of their hubris. If they were serious, they would not work out of massive ostentatious targets such as these.
M16 and GCHQ apparently believe they can forever provoke the bear from splendid offices, without consequeces. We shall see if this is so.

Posted by: Alex Cox | Jul 11 2025 15:20 utc | 9

Everyone knows but reminders are helpful…
We have 2 allies, Belarus and DPRK, that’s it…
Posted by: Natalya Volkova | Jul 11 2025 15:10 utc | 5
Well then, White Russia must be extremely careful to ensure that Lucchenko stays well for as long as possible.
The West, in this case Poland and England, plus the CIA, will do everything humanly possible to trigger the color revolution at some point…EVERYTHING!
Either Russia will learn its lesson from the all-out attack, or it will really get serious about firing a shot across the West’s bow and completely wiping something out, ideally including the deepest and supposedly safest bunker…because there are still elites who are convinced they’ll spend 500 years in a luxury bunker if necessary…some haven’t even realized yet that, thanks to hazelnuts, their bunkers will be nothing more than graves for them.
Although, if the worst comes to the worst, God is more merciful to those who die soon!

Posted by: Genesiss | Jul 11 2025 15:21 utc | 10

thanks b…
europe and the usa are following a very nazi like approach, so it makes sense the grand daughter of a nazi would head up mi6… when will europe ever learn?? and of course the usa is a fading empire, so not much can be expected from them in the way of leadership here either.. more like floundering under the giant flounder-er – trump..
i wouldn’t be surprised if some financial collapse happened to alter much of this… we’ll see…

Posted by: james | Jul 11 2025 15:26 utc | 11

European, EU, US perceptions are a strange world.
In southern Europe the US is generally strongly disliked.
However the traditional national right of center political establishment often work with, and host, US ambitions.
Now, the EU political establishment, which occupies most of the national spectrums on various policy fronts, is Atlanticist.
Heading further north and the tendency has been (north) Atlanticist for decades, and as that is EU homeground, it reflects in EU policy. The differences with US are played off using trade disputes, freedom of speech themes and so on, but the deeper agenda is Atlanticist with emphasis on creating an EU superstate in conjunction with US activity. US and EU trade this reality, there is no patsy (except for the public).

Posted by: Ornot | Jul 11 2025 15:27 utc | 12

My impression is that the Russian strategic braintrust will avoid direct confrontation w/ NATO for as long as possible. It is also plausible to me that they have conducted the SMO at a scale and pace that allows them to continuously build combat power relative to NATO in preparation for just such a confrontation.
Voices within and without Russia have speculated that Russia must perform some dramatic act or attack to re-establish deterrence vis-a-vis NATO, and certainly one can say that they restraint NATO operated under during the Cold War is largely gone now. Over the course of the SMO and after the Midnight Hammer attack in Iran, the threshold now for nuclear use–or indeed a radiological attack ranging from a dirty bomb to an attack on a civilian NPP or the meltdown or demolition of a UKR NPP–is now virtually gone. Indeed there are persistent speculations that the West & Israel have already used small low-radiation nukes–on Syrian ports for example,
In any event, I still think it is stupid for Russia to use a tactical nuke as a demonstration piece, and doubt they will do so. The Oreshnik and a seaborne Bulava variant offer other possibilities.
Is there any military action that Russia can perform in order to back NATO off AFTER the SMO is largely complete? Russia is already societally mobilized for conflict. Perhaps better to risk a direct conflict when NATO is at its least ready rather than submit to being chipped away at through hybrid warfare / sabotage / terrorism while NATO spends the next 5 years getting its act together.
An Oreshnik erasure of a SCALP, StormShadow or Taurus facility and / or HQ?
Destruction of MI6 HQ?
An Oreshnik erasure of one or more UK military bases outside NATO territory? Cyprus, Diego Garcia, Oman, Bahrain, Jordan, Falklands, for example?

Posted by: Paul Damascene | Jul 11 2025 15:29 utc | 13

Thank you b for your analysis. If one looks at things from a military / cold war perspective, your analysis makes a lot of sense.
But the achilles heal of the West is its economy. Countries that no longer produce very much of substance, or only at high prices, are intrinsincally fragile. Think closure of the Hormuz straight (nearly happened last month). Think China dumping US Treasuries en masse. Think Japan deciding it has had it with being an occupied country and paying 25% tarifs. Not only is the West highly vulnerable, it is making itself increasingly vulnerable through measures that comparatively harm the West more than the ROW, like the destruction of NordStream or Trump’s erratic tarrif policies (not to mention Lindsay Graham’s crazy 500% bill).
The real nukes hanging over our heads are not atomic, they are economic. And our financial overloards may yet discover that paper cannot be eaten, that countries that cannot produce enough weapons have useless armies, and that it’s easier to initiate a collapse than to steer it towards their desired outcome.

Posted by: Shahmaran | Jul 11 2025 15:30 utc | 14

“For most Americans it’s usual to regard the Euros as the patsy. For the Euros, it’s always been the other way round.”
…..most Americans? Most US citizens don’t care what their government is doing and a rather small minority that watch CNN and The View pay it lip service……
Cheers M
…..seems like the Russians got the 100 Year War message though…..

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jul 11 2025 15:35 utc | 15

Alex Cox won the thread with this:
the massive MI6 building, built in homage to the edifices in Fritz Lang’s film Metropolis

Posted by: Exile | Jul 11 2025 15:37 utc | 16

Clearly Europe has been playing the U.S. as the “patsy” (a person easily deceived and used as proxy) and I sure sure that Trump has been making exactly that point in his word bound manner.
It is Trumps intent to make Europe pay for this and Europe is responding accordingly.
On a tangent, of sorts:
In general, I find that people who are quick to call others “stupid” are generally not very bright.

Posted by: jared | Jul 11 2025 15:38 utc | 17

Pretty well known that the Ukraine war is not only Ukraine. The point where I have doubts is the survival of support. As some have said over Iran, MAGA doesn’t support endless wars, and loss of MAGA support may keep Trump out of Iran, and the same goes for Ukraine.
The same can be said about Europe. The EU public are about to face a major economic recession, i.e. one that the public can feel. I caThe elite may want to go to war

Posted by: laguerre | Jul 11 2025 15:39 utc | 18

For example, NATO will buy weapons from the U.S. (what little there may be) to supply to Ukraine.

Posted by: jared | Jul 11 2025 15:44 utc | 19

The real nukes hanging over our heads are not atomic, they are economic. And our financial overloards may yet discover that paper cannot be eaten, that countries that cannot produce enough weapons have useless armies, and that it’s easier to initiate a collapse than to steer it towards their desired outcome.
Posted by: Shahmaran | Jul 11 2025 15:30 utc | 14
Top Analysis
There’s really NOTHING to add to that; anyone who lives in Europe, especially Germany, will feel the same way.

Posted by: Genesiss | Jul 11 2025 15:45 utc | 20

sorry, major mistype.
I can feel it in France. The elite may want to go to war. They will not be followed. Nobody is interested.
Regarding Republicofscotland | Jul 11 2025 15:14 utc | 6
I’ve always thought the Eastern European states should be thrown out of the EU. What they want is not in W European interests.

Posted by: laguerre | Jul 11 2025 15:45 utc | 21

Posted by: Exile | Jul 11 2025 15:09 utc | 2
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Jul 11 2025 15:14 utc | 6
I think both of you point out that we don’t have much time to antogonize Russia because the USA is on a safe trajectory to a major financial disaster and the euro-liberals will press too hard on euro-populace with penuries to fund the USA and thus ease American suffering.
I think you’re right.
So those possible plans of euro-liberals pointed out by English Outsider will not come to fruition. The problem for us, when antagonizing Russia and its capitalist development, is that we have’d so profound mismanagement in the last 3 decades that we are pretty much fucked, as nations capable of showing any coercive power.
But we have to wait, wait till the American and euro populace realize we are down the path of penury as nations.

Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Jul 11 2025 15:45 utc | 22

Posted by: laguerre | Jul 11 2025 15:39 utc | 18
#######
The White House is posting Trump as Superman memes.
MAGA holds no sway now, if it ever did.
Folks put much faith into public opinion, IMO. If public opinion mattered the West wouldn’t have no-go zones or in California, street defecation.
The public’s opinion doesn’t matter. Protest, call your representative, whatever. They don’t care. The machine has become independent of its intended purpose.
Public opinion matters when conscription comes because public opinion can raise or lower the cost of manpower.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jul 11 2025 15:47 utc | 23

David Cameron former Brit PM, had a conversation with Vovan and Lexus posing as a fake “ Poreshenko” before the General Election In Britain last year.
The ersatz “Poreshenko” was very concerned about a change of policy regarding Ukraine, as a result of the General Election. Cameron told him, live on air, that the General Election would not change the British Government’s policy on Ukraine, even if a change of government occurred
https://rumble.com/v53q8w7-prank-with-david-cameron.html?e9s=src_v1_sa%2Csrc_v1_ucp_a
Leaving aside the obvious conspiratorial cast to Cameron’s offered certainties, there was no viable anti-war option, both main parties were the parties of war, I guess it is much the same in most “democracies” currently
The only option voters get is war – this is the nature of our “democracies”

Posted by: will moon | Jul 11 2025 15:49 utc | 24

Thank you to Karlof1 for the translation and comments, and to B for setting the table for discussion.
For me, the essential message in Trenin’s essay lies here:
This is a proxy (so far) war of the West against Russia. And this confrontation itself is part of an ongoing world war, in which the West is fighting to maintain world hegemony. This will be a long war, and the United States, with or without Trump, will remain our adversary.
We should view the Ukraine conflics in the broad context of the world war being waged by the West to maintain economic control. The Ukraine war was intended to subdue Russia so the US could make the “Pivot to Asia” that the US administration began pushing under Barack Obama. Also, the Israel-Iran war is best understood as a piece of the project, since breaking Iran would consolidate Western control of the Middle East, open a southern front against Russia, and disrupt China’s New Silk Road for overland transport between East and West. All the color revolutions of the past 20 years (and more) fit into this broader project of weakening Russia, China, and associated states that might defy US/EU commands.
We live now, as Trenin writes, in the midst of an ongoing world war. It is a hybrid war so propaganda, misinformation, and attempts at thought control (through control of the conversation) are important weapons, and we can see that in the major media outlets. And it will be a long war. Hopefully not a hot war. I hope.
(italics added by me)

Posted by: Clever Dog | Jul 11 2025 15:49 utc | 25

I dunno.
First EO says, It’s too facile to regard them as hapless Europoodles swept along in Washington’s wake
Then he goes on to describe that that’s pretty much the extent of their economic and geopolitical hopes, dreams, and strategies.
No, hapless Europoodles is apropos. They have no ideas…and they’re bankrupt.
I think Orlov is probably correct. Once they accept that nobody’s going to go to war with them, they’ll turn on each other.

Posted by: john | Jul 11 2025 15:49 utc | 26

As for the “hapless Europoodles”, it’s rare to find Americans who recognise that that’s not how the European politicians see themselves. More that they hope to lever American military and economic power in pursuit of their own objectives. For most Americans it’s usual to regard the Euros as the patsy. For the Euros, it’s always been the other way round.

Yeah, the “Europoodles” still think the universe revolves around them and give anyone who suggests otherwise the Galileo treatment. The sLimeys are even worse, thinking they still have an empire and their opium doesn’t stink. We should ask, though, who is taking home the bacon? Certainly not Minor Britain, and Germany had their energy jugular blown up and they meekly accepted it. France is too busy being gay in Paree, and referring to the rest of the chihuahuas in Europe as “poodles” really overstates their global significance. Also worthy of consideration is who will get their balls (or empty scrota, as the case may be) roasted in thermonuclear fire if they succeed in actually irritating Russia enough. Trump is busy making sure it won’t be the US of A.
Who benefits? I cannot see how anyone could imagine it could be the “Eurochihuahuas”. Their best outcome at this point is to merely survive without their domestic regime changes being too violent. Granted, the US is experiencing serious internal friction and economic crisis as well, but the flow of wealth is going from the EU to the US and not the other way around. I fail to see how that could be part of the “Eurochihuahuas” clever plan.

Posted by: William Gruff | Jul 11 2025 15:50 utc | 27

To, as “the west” rips itself apart at the seams, Russia and China (and maybe Iran) might want to encourage their efforts – a dangerous game, maybe.
The theft of Russia’s assets will certainly provide the incentive.

Posted by: jared | Jul 11 2025 15:51 utc | 28

Posted by: Genesiss | Jul 11 2025 15:21 utc | 10
Well you are correct, although they tried recently unsuccessfully. It is certainly something to worry about.

Posted by: Natalya Volkova | Jul 11 2025 15:51 utc | 29

A continued war seems clear as that’s the only reason for RF to bet on 2 million fully equipped, trained , structured and experienced bayonets by end of year.
As for who wags who… usually at MoA most discuss that regarding us vs Israel . The other day I mentioned it could be a dysfunctional couple , one might now extend to a fully dysfunctional family.
Another point that I see no way out is that the us still holds enough power to be the hegemon (or at least its steward) for half a century IMHO
A final consideration , we’re probably near a critical junction and the more efficient and integrated the world is, the harder it will crash. Could the breaking up be a way to increase resilience in smaller more contiguous blocks?

Posted by: Newbie | Jul 11 2025 15:54 utc | 30

I want to take
For most Americans it’s usual to regard the Euros as the patsy. For the Euros, it’s always been the other way round.
and say my usual
Americans and the Euros are the patsy of the God Of Mammon cult and to believe otherwise is to show the success of the empire in brainwashing you.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Jul 11 2025 15:55 utc | 31

“For most Americans it’s usual to regard the Euros as the patsy. For the Euros, it’s always been the other way round.”
Well, obviously. European nations managed the scam of accepting American “leadership,” which meant the military burden was almost entirely American while Europe developed robust social welfare.
The problem is that Europe can’t even afford to look after its own citizens, nevermind the “refugees,” while reorienting their society for perpetual war with Russia. EU nations who try to pawn off the burden (Spain) are going to face immense pressure from the rest of NATO, assuming their governments aren’t simply replaced.
And this is a best case scenario for Europe. Worst case is that Russia attacks them openly, severely limiting European weapons production at the same time President Trump washes his hands of NATO. The result of this would be a collapse of the European Union- and a major rise of nationalist governments. Whether they would be compliant NATO friends like Meloni and Le Pen or skeptics like Orban misses the point. President Trump has many reasons to prefer the nationalist parties of Europe to the globalist idiots causing problems for America. The idea that he wants Macron or Starmer in power is risible: globalists have major reasons to attack President Trump, especially because of the last six months.

Posted by: They Call Me Mister | Jul 11 2025 15:57 utc | 32

Unfortunately, it is not the 1% who will suffer the consequences of their failures and depravity.

Posted by: jared | Jul 11 2025 16:03 utc | 33

Well you are correct, although they tried recently unsuccessfully. It is certainly something to worry about.
Posted by: Natalya Volkova | Jul 11 2025 15:51 utc | 29
Now, should they succeed in the color revolution in Belarus?
Then, as a last resort, Putin or his successors would have only a shot across the bow.
And if it doesn’t happen in Putin’s time, I’m sure it will be a huge shot, because there are enough hardliners in the Kremlin around Putin!
And once Trump is gone, which he will be, and no one shouts “It wasn’t us” at EVERY opportunity, please counterattack Berlin, Paris, London. Then things will look bleak, or very bright for Boston or New York… a USA that always just cheers on others, as one can see from Trump’s behavior, does NOT want to be the culprit, even though there is NO other culprit.
A Trumph is constantly balancing between nuclear war and protestations of innocence “It wasn’t us/I!” … “I just want peace” why does he do that… so that if a shot is fired across the bow he can be the first to shout loudly: now drop Russia you Brics!
.
And in Europe, for the average citizen, Trump has long since ceased to be the “savior”; on the contrary, he’s more of a failure.

Posted by: Gensiss | Jul 11 2025 16:05 utc | 34

But we have to wait, wait till the American and euro populace realize we are down the path of penury as nations.
Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Jul 11 2025 15:45 utc | 22
The 4% who have controlled everything in Western Europe for over 150 years ( https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11609-025-00557-4 )still assume they will survive.
As long as they don’t disappear, Western Europe will have war as its goal. Nobody cares about the population unless there’s a real revolution (which I don’t see happening).
The Great Reset https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Reset

Posted by: smartfox | Jul 11 2025 16:14 utc | 35

It has been clear for quite some time that we are experiencing a ‘civilizational war’ between competing systems of human governance.
I appreciate both the work of ‘b’ and ‘Karl’ in providing us with fora to discuss and learn …

Posted by: Don Firineach | Jul 11 2025 16:14 utc | 36

Amerika itself will soon suffer a Color Revolution, but it will not be due to any machinations from the East, it will be organic. And the colors of this revolution will be Brown vs. Black vs. White vs. … uh, Saffron (y’know, like they wear in India, right?).
OCICBW

Posted by: Klaus | Jul 11 2025 16:16 utc | 37

My thanks to b for bringing my article to the bar’s attention. Those who read the entire piece will note it also has a domestic US component that’s also important. Russia is already conducting convoys of its shadow fleet at various locations near NATO, and that’s where I anticipate conflict. I also fear an attack on Russia’s Arctic energy assets that would trigger a very violent response on UK. In my conclusion, I ask cui bono and answer with my description of psychohistorian’s Cult of Mammon–The Parasites.
At the conclusion of Lavrov’s presser in Kuala Lumpur, he was asked what he admitted was a very good question and said the following in his conclusion:

I came across a quote. It was interesting to see how Europe perceived Germany at the time. There was a quote from the Swedish newspaper Aftonbladet of June 22, 1941. In other words, they glorified the Nazis as a symbol of freedom. If Europe is moving towards this again… What can I say? Mournfully.
We will fully take this into account in all areas of our planning. [My Emphasis]

I intend to post the full translation later today.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 11 2025 16:16 utc | 38

The public’s opinion doesn’t matter. Protest, call your representative, whatever. They don’t care. The machine has become independent of its intended purpose.
Public opinion matters when conscription comes because public opinion can raise or lower the cost of manpower.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jul 11 2025 15:47 utc | 23
Quite wrong. And you admit it partially in your last para. Public opinion limits what the elite can do. I didn’t go into the details, because I thought everyone understood that, and I didn’t have the time for a long disquisition.

Posted by: laguerre | Jul 11 2025 16:19 utc | 39

The opportunity I see for a “change in the game” is the global power rebalancing underway, currently in a period of mild instability (which I think will accelerate) is China.
I’ve heard the advances of Russia on the battlefield described as “lava flow” and I think that’s a good way to consider the Chinese global engagement since they embarked on belt and road which is a historic shift in Chinese foreign policy. China is coming to the point where to secure their economic and strategic security interests they have to move pieces or lose.
The statement by Wang Yi that they do not want Russia defeated and their embrace of Iranian security interests at the recent SCO meeting indicate they are leaning forward.
Personally, I think the north-south corridor has been overblown as 1) the rail link requires Azerbaijan to cooperate who weren’t before and totally aren’t now 2) the sea route needs investment in rail links to the coast and so far all talk no action on that front. Significant Chinese involvement could change things on that front.
Dropping a marker: not only was the China-Iran rail link recently inaugurated, but the first passengers from N Korea have arrived by rail in Moscow. Thalassocratic/Tellurocratic divide writ large.
I hope this finds you well

Posted by: ockham | Jul 11 2025 16:20 utc | 40

I find it remarkable that nobody is commenting on the Fact that a goodly proportion of NATO aka ZATO members are Jewed-up ex Christian Colonial Countries with persistent Delusions Of Grandeur.
And ZATO’s nominal leader is totally Jewed-up, violently racist, AmeriKKKa! It’s amazing how quickly people have ‘forgotten’ how many Wars for the Jews the USA has already launched in the Middle East. And now the Jews want AmeriKKKa to attack Russia. And the Jewed-up Eurotrash are going along for the ride.
I would only add that I’m equally bewildered by the fact that Vladimir Putin is just as oblivious to the Jewish fingerprints on this plot as the Eurotrash seem to be.

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Jul 11 2025 16:24 utc | 41

Public opinion limits what the elite can do.
Posted by: laguerre | Jul 11 2025 16:19 utc | 39
Only if it is uniform, which is why there are massive attempts in Western Europe to maintain unrestricted control over it.

Posted by: smartfox | Jul 11 2025 16:28 utc | 42

Hegemon demands conquest.
Trump is carrying on the task of U$$A presidents since 1945.
Trump will send US weapons planned for less urgent empire (U$$A) operations.
The U$$A is “run” by a figurehead “elected” every 4 years. Constitutional democracy is inefficient for running U$$A.
Project Kiev is an operational set within empire strategy. Conquest of Russia is the object. It cannot lose!
Project Iran is a parallel operational set, as is project Taiwan.
Project Iran gets all the U$$A aerospace power needed, because Iran has oil AND no nuclear weapons.
Project Taiwan is a remnant of global dominant sea power from 1880’s Mahan but 3000 nautical miles beyond logistics.

Posted by: paddy | Jul 11 2025 16:28 utc | 43

Posted by: laguerre | Jul 11 2025 16:19 utc | 39
########
If the public can’t stop (or slow) a genocide after 2 years, the power of the public is pathetic compared to the elites.
I don’t like it but that is an obvious conclusion to draw.
Remember COVID? A relatively small mass of the public created mass hysteria that upended the world for years and killed many people via vaccination.
The public are easily lead and misled.
As Lavrov said at ASEAN, most of Europe happily supported the Nazis at the time.
And to quote Sid Vicious, “the man on the street is a cunt”.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jul 11 2025 16:31 utc | 44

Patsies or not, it’s time to bomb the germans away and kill their scientists.
“International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Grossi has highlighted Germany’s position as a threshold nuclear weapons state, warning that it retains access to the technologies, nuclear material, and knowhow, to develop a nuclear weapon within “a matter of months.””
Goose, gander and stuff.
Not to mention these guys were responsible for 2 out 0f 2 world wars. Can’t trust them…
https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/germany-threshold-nuclear-weapons-develop-bomb-months

Posted by: Newbie | Jul 11 2025 16:32 utc | 45

Remember COVID? A relatively small mass of the public created mass hysteria that upended the world for years and killed many people via vaccination.
The public are easily lead and misled.
LoveDonbass | Jul 11 2025 16:31 utc | 44
COVID, or rather the management of oppression associated with it, was a test balloon and only served the function of disciplining the population and teaching them obedience.

Posted by: smartfox | Jul 11 2025 16:37 utc | 46

laguerre @39 re: public opinion doesn’t matter: “Quite wrong.”
Very true. If it didn’t matter then the elites calling the shots in the West wouldn’t spend hundreds of $billions per year on media to influence that public opinion. If public opinion didn’t matter, then why do they pay trolls to haunt MoA?
Public opinion matters a lot.

Posted by: William Gruff | Jul 11 2025 16:37 utc | 47

chatgpt is not bad.
Here’s a non-Western-centric, pro-Russian, pro–Global South analysis of the article titled “The Europeans And The U.S. Against Russia – Who Is Really The Patsy?”:
Framing the Conflict Beyond Ukraine
From a non-Western or Global South lens, Dmitri Trenin’s central thesis — that the war in Ukraine is not about Ukraine but a broader Western campaign to maintain hegemony — resonates strongly. Much of the Global South has long experienced Western military, economic, and ideological interference cloaked as humanitarianism, democratization, or globalization. Thus, viewing the conflict as an imperial struggle rather than a defense of “democracy” in Ukraine offers a counter-narrative that aligns with post-colonial critiques.
Trenin’s idea that Russia is fighting for its very existence reflects a legitimate fear in non-Western states: that sovereignty and independent development models are not tolerated when they conflict with Western interests. Many Global South nations — from Libya and Syria to Venezuela and Iran — have faced similar destabilization tactics when they resisted aligning with U.S.-led economic or military frameworks.
….
A few more paragraphs!

Posted by: Cable Guy | Jul 11 2025 16:38 utc | 48

The cornered animal is more dangerous.
I get the impression that Russia either tires of the conflict/game or realizes that there will soon be further escalation, so
– Decapitation strike on Ukraine or
– Bring the conflict directly to western Europe
or both.

Posted by: jared | Jul 11 2025 16:40 utc | 49

why do they pay trolls to haunt MoA?
Posted by: William Gruff | Jul 11 2025 16:37 utc | 47
#######
Good question Moshe.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jul 11 2025 16:42 utc | 50

chatgpt is not bad.
Posted by: Cable Guy | Jul 11 2025 16:38 utc | 48
#######
Always try the same prompt in DeepSeek for comparison.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jul 11 2025 16:44 utc | 51

Dmitri Trenin is correct.
The Ukraine proxy war goes far beyond Ukraine.
In fact, it is just one more theater of war in what is an undeclared World War between the America-led West, who are desperate to maintain their 500-year world dominance, vs. Eurasia (Russia, China, Iran) and its allies who are fighting against this Westoid world order.
Ukraine, the Middle East, and the South China Sea are just a few of the so-called “hotspots” that this World War is being fought.
Most Americans and their allied ilk don’t want to admit it is a world war because their bombs are being dropped over there on other countries.
It’s only when they receive a taste of their own “Shock and Awe” will they admit that they have been waging a world war all this time.
And, no, voting (either Republican or Democrat) will change nothing in terms of stopping this world war.

Posted by: ak74 | Jul 11 2025 16:52 utc | 52

Posted by: Gensiss | Jul 11 2025 16:05 utc | 34
Me and you are adequate people and it would be a tragedy to return to the past, but if we must I will not feel sympathy for the end of Germany or England. There are some good people in both but not so much apparently.

Posted by: Natalya Volkova | Jul 11 2025 16:53 utc | 53

The West’s war with Russia has been ongoing since Napoleon was destroyed at the gates of Moscow. Europe is afraid of Russia’s strength while at the same time lusting after its resources. Nothing new, it just keeps trying:
– Crimean War of 1953-1856 which was in fact a much wider war pitting a UK-France-Ottoman Empire alliance against Russia
– WW1 German attempt to destroy Russia
– Post-WW1 Western intervention in the Soviet Union to defeat the Bolsheviks
– WW1 to WW2 “First Cold War”
– WW2 German attempt to destroy Russia
– Post WW2 “Cold War”
– 1990s plundering of Russia and significant progress in making it a Western vassal
– 2000 to today “New Cold War”
– Chechnyan Wars from 1994 to 2009 supported by Western security services
– Georgian proxy war of 2008
– Ukraine pro-Western coup in 2014, low intensity proxy war 2014 to 2022
– Full blown Ukrainian proxy war 2022 to today
Nothing here is new, just an extension of a two century Western war with Russia.

Posted by: Roger Boyd | Jul 11 2025 16:53 utc | 54

@ockham | Jul 11 2025 16:20 utc | 40

Personally, I think the north-south corridor has been overblown as 1) the rail link requires Azerbaijan to cooperate who weren’t before and totally aren’t now

According to Orlov (his latest with Nima today) this is incorrect. The North South corridor has 3 ways to get to Iran from Russia. One way is via Azerbaijan, the other is via the Casoan sea (“build enough ships”) and the third is by rail via Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan (maybe that railway must be built, but whatever).
PS: Thanks to b and Karlof1++ for this fine piece

Posted by: Norwegian | Jul 11 2025 16:55 utc | 55

It is imperative to grasp the economic realities of European foreign policy, especially regarding the Ukraine. Recall that Eastern Europe has always been regarded as the first periphery of European imperialism. In fact, Leften Stavrianos showed in his book Global Rift that Eastern Europe was the first Third World for Western Europe. Fast forward to the Twentieth Century when it became common sense in German geopolitical thinking that Eastern Europe was the prime space for colonization and resource extraction. Hitler took this line of thinking to its logical conclusion but was defeated. After the Soviet Union ended, the core European powers alongside the US and IMF played a key role in dismembering Yugoslavia. Later, during the Kosovo war, Clinton said that economic interests were at the core of the conflict, as Peter Gowan documented in his book, The Global Gamble. The logic of Western European foreign policy thus became EU plus NATO expansion, right up to Russia’s borders, as John Mearsheimer and Richard Sakwa explained. This was the EU’s Monroe Doctrine: Eastern Europe would buy German cars and serve up NRG, food and cheap migrant labor. This was a strategy of capital accumulation and imperial defense, with the nationalist dogs of Eastern Europe serving up fodder for NATO. Ukraine was to be the crowning achievement of this plan, but Russia smashed it and threatens to take more of Eastern Europe into its own sphere of influence.
What makes this ever more risky for the EU in the present is the Rise of China and the nationalist turn in the US under Trump. Europe is being squeezed from all sides. Russia is crushing the Ukrainian army. Europe has lost cheap NRG. It faces tariffs from Trump. And European exports are no longer competitive in China, where BYD is much more attractive than BMW.
In short, the geopolitical and economic dynamics of the world system have turned strongly against European capitalist classes, who are not acting like stupid poodles but like desperate capitalists. There is an economic logic to their pathetic flailings.

Posted by: Crumchy | Jul 11 2025 16:56 utc | 56

@ Paul Damascene | Jul 11 2025 15:29 utc | 13
good questions paul and i don’t know the answers.. i am sure the russians are weighing their options here…

Posted by: james | Jul 11 2025 16:58 utc | 57

@smartfox | Jul 11 2025 16:37 utc | 46

COVID, or rather the management of oppression associated with it, was a test balloon and only served the function of disciplining the population and teaching them obedience.

Exactly so! For years I have said it was an exercise in obedience training, and that bears repeating until people understand. It was preparatory to manufacture consent for the war that is being discussed here. It all fits together and this isn’t a new revelation.

Posted by: Norwegian | Jul 11 2025 17:02 utc | 58

Alex Cox won the thread with this:
the massive MI6 building, built in homage to the edifices in Fritz Lang’s film Metropolis
Posted by: Exile | Jul 11 2025 15:37 utc | 16
______
I see that monstrosity as infantilized PoMo — if you’ll pardon the pleonasm. It’s something a five-year-old would build out of Lego blocks.

Posted by: malenkov | Jul 11 2025 17:02 utc | 59

USAis going to supply 300ion weapinry aircdefense…rumours may initiate more, but
🇬🇧🇺🇦The UK will supply Ukraine with 5,000 air defense missiles, the British government reported.
The deliveries will be made under a loan agreement that the countries will sign at a conference starting today in Rome.
The UK will allocate about $3.4 billion for the supply of missiles, the loan repayment period is 19 years.
yup we know UK is economically in a fragile situation (egnegative growthfor May and may have to raise taxes even more for its extravagant plans ,trying to cover a budget potential shortfall) but we know Ukraine is bankrupt and has previously said it cannot pay back loans for tbe next 35years….dumpkoffs the lot.

Posted by: Jo | Jul 11 2025 17:04 utc | 60

For most Americans it’s usual to regard the Euros as the patsy. For the Euros, it’s always been the other way round.
it’s normal for people to center themselves in their view of the world with everything revolving around it, such as the planets revolving around the sun(self). so i don’t blame Europeans for imagining themselves as more important than they are. what i do blame them for, is cutting their nose off despite their face.
“the West is fighting to maintain world hegemony.”
let’s face it, “the West” is not the hegemon, the US is. insofar as Europe is aligned with the US, they get to be part of that hegemon. but the most advantageous positioning for Europe, is to be aligned with Russia. history aside (the absurdity, and how convenient since i know so little of it) it’s challenging to even conceptualize Europe’s future without the vast reserves of Russia. it’s all one big mass, the primary resources dominating above, flowing down like mother’s milk on europe. cut off that flow and where does that leave europe? broke and destined to suffer.
we’re on the cusp of the multipolar world, the US won’t be maintaining hegemony, so where does that leave Europe? they must either cling to China or Russia because on their own where does their power source come from? mentally and emotionally, they’re full of themselves, they are the sun everything revolves around. but they better wake up fast and get off their high horse, there’s no way they can conquer Russia and steal the glory, not going to happen.

Posted by: annie | Jul 11 2025 17:07 utc | 61

Re: German Nukes
Germany already has some 350 A-Bombs on its soil. (The are US controled)

Posted by: Exile | Jul 11 2025 17:11 utc | 62

sorry, i meant cut their nose off to spite their face.

Posted by: annie | Jul 11 2025 17:11 utc | 63

let’s face it, “the West” is not the hegemon, the US is.
annie | Jul 11 2025 17:07 utc | 61
Not that either. Not “the USA,” but the “elite” in the USA and in Western Europe, especially in England. The same 4% of the population has controlled everything for centuries, with England having the “brains,” while the USA has only the “brawn.”

Posted by: smartfox | Jul 11 2025 17:14 utc | 64

I appreciate B’s blog posts very much, though the Comments section is often unuseful. Today – and thanks to Karl for catching this article – the Comments are very worthwhile. Of course, there’s always Hoarsewhisperer, but oh well…

Posted by: Paul Spencer | Jul 11 2025 17:16 utc | 65

The City of London,(1) not to be confused by the UK they are under the rules the West; has since 1694, certainly since 1757; it is becoming clearer by the day.
It is, of course much more complex, more like a secret web including Mossad, MI6, CIA, where the a latest fiasco being Jeffrey Epstein illustrating the rampant perverted blackmail in the entire Western political system Trump succumbs to the Web; the nameless Spider, of course is in the center of the Web in London.
1.Not to be confused by the UK- they are also under The City of London’s (see Liz Truss thrown out) control.

Posted by: canuk | Jul 11 2025 17:18 utc | 66

@smartfox | Jul 11 2025 16:37 utc | 46
COVID, or rather the management of oppression associated with it, was a test balloon and only served the function of disciplining the population and teaching them obedience.
Exactly so! For years I have said it was an exercise in obedience training, and that bears repeating until people understand. It was preparatory to manufacture consent for the war that is being discussed here. It all fits together and this isn’t a new revelation.
Posted by: Norwegian | Jul 11 2025 17:02 utc | 58
I concur-the PTB are conspiring to impoverish and weaken the Hoi Polloi so they will cry out for moar, moar government, more enslavement-its quite obvious now , I believe.

Posted by: canuk | Jul 11 2025 17:20 utc | 67

Everyone knows but reminders are helpful…
We have 2 allies, Belarus and DPRK, that’s it…
Posted by: Natalya Volkova | Jul 11 2025 15:10 utc | 5
You are allied with most of the populations of the rest of the world, including the West. The Paper Cut-Out “Leaders”, put in place by Criminal Western Agencies, need constant manipulation of their perverted messages to maintain the illusion of power for themselves. The vast majority of common people know they are lied to everyday.
Let’s see any Western Country try to draft recruits into their false-god armies to fight for the Pansy-brained hustlers. Never going to happen.
Look at Trump. Such a loud-mouth bag of Promises, so controlled by dirty Sheckels. The cupboard is bare, but AI-generated pictures of cardboard foodstuffs abound.
US Covid money-printing of $4.5 Trillion to revive the Pretend economy of churning and skimming nothings. No wonder Hegseth has the Movie Crew filming the new Super-Dooper, Defense pooper with invincible drones made from Chinese parts.
Why write fiction when you can live it every day?

Posted by: kupkee | Jul 11 2025 17:22 utc | 68

@ 14 Shahmaran
Just to take a statement and place it in a different context:
“But the achilles heal of the West is its economy. Countries that no longer produce very much of substance, or only at high prices, are intrinsincally fragile.”
Not countries but societies, and this is purposeful.
Financial control of the economies and related dependence, as well as increased dependence on government redistribution, creates a command economy where the public are managed.
The western world is still a very wealthy place, but disfunctional in terms of social integrity (including economic), again purposeful.
The result is increasing call for intermediation by authority, which now is a form of wider centralisation.
So while one concerns with maintaining wealth, the governments are more than happy to redistribute what exists of it to others not quite as wealthy, so gaining their support.
If the authority wants to spend on arms, it will do so, and you will pay many times over for that:
Via inflation
Via non productive use of manufacturing
Via taxation
Via competition for labour
And more.
Those who agree with government, who receive its redistribution or who work for it, are not in any position to disagree. And they don’t.
Look at international silence nowadays, look at the silence towards government appropriation, look at the ‘poodles’ – the vast bureaucracy that follows along obediently.
Those actually in charge are not poodles though.
The US is no patsy either, it is very calculated, on a scale and timeframe few would understand.
Some ask what should Russia do in reply ? The facts are that anything it does to resist are met by more of this direction in the west.
There are those who are extreme enough to think all is resolved on the battle field, but the reality, as you note, is that that is not where the main conflict is, it is only a facet used by whichever side.
In the west, they may make people suffer and blame the opponent. Nothing new there, and they have hardly started regarding Russia.
Europeans don’t want conflict, that is true. Historically, many a national upheaval was due to the costs of war, but many wars were also started due to national upheaval.
In the hybrid picture of today, wars are ‘technical, these are fought at distance, part remotely, with tactical moves that are as much about public perception (maintaining support or ignorance) as of conquest.
That means in fact that Europe (EU) is also at war currently with Russia, you just did not notice it properly. There would not be mass call up and waves of troops, just gradual increase in call to duty, and those that did not return. All hidden under the blanket of media normality, which would just portray whatever at all suited it.
The existing troops in Europe, they already are committed to war with Russia (or elsewhere) if necessary. Little war, big war, quiet war or visible war makes no difference, and so they will not be vocal either.
That which hangs over society therefore is the management of an increased authority using various means of coercion, including economic but also the threats posed by foreign nations, whether those be real or invented.
Let’s use the alleged quote by Trump on bombing Beijing or Moscow, that it only needed to be believed 10% or even 5% to be effective.
Now we have own media saying whatever about a foreign threat…which only needs to be believed 5 % or 10 % to be effective. Look at the leaders talk …just an example of say Merz, paraphrased:
– “Israel” was legally entitled to attack Iran because of a potentially imminent nuclear attack on it by Iran –
We are so used to this newspeak that it is normal to many, has become accepted as correct, is believed at least 5% or 10% .
To top that off, the say 30% who disagree are in no position to do anything more than quietly state their objection, and always thinking they are a mere 1%.
Which also explains why information control is so sought after.

Posted by: Ornot | Jul 11 2025 17:24 utc | 69

@5 Natalya Volkova
You are right about allies but remember that in many western countries Russia still has friends amongst the ordinary people. Not the majority but nonetheless there
JB

Posted by: Judge Barbier | Jul 11 2025 17:25 utc | 70

Always try the same prompt in DeepSeek for comparison.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jul 11 2025 16:44 utc | 51
Just did it. I think DeepSeek is more direct. It gave a few paragraphs, I am just posting the conclusion .
Conclusion: The West’s Decline and the Rise of the Rest
Trenin’s warning that “the war will be long” is accurate, but the outcome is already shifting in favor of Russia and the Global South. The West’s attempts to isolate Russia have instead accelerated de-dollarization, strengthened Eurasian integration, and exposed NATO’s internal divisions.
For the Global South, this conflict is further proof that Western hegemony is unsustainable—and that the future belongs to those who reject neocolonial domination. Europe’s elites may still cling to Atlanticism, but their economies and political stability are crumbling. Meanwhile, Russia, China, and their partners are building a post-Western world order where sovereignty, multipolarity, and mutual economic interests prevail.
Final Verdict: The U.S. and EU are both patsies—not of each other, but of their own hubris. The real winners will be the nations that refuse to play by their rules.

Posted by: Cable Guy | Jul 11 2025 17:32 utc | 71

“I’ve always thought the Eastern European states should be thrown out of the EU. What they want is not in W European interests.”
laguerre (21).
I suppose like other EU states, Eastern ones sought access to the EU market, EU funding and along with that – some joined Nato, which gave the American’s access to their lands – to point their missiles Eastwards towards Russia – and in return those Eastern countries, also sought shelter under the Wests military umbrella away from the giant Russian Bear, which they would say could’ve invaded them at any moment.
The EU bigwigs know Russia is no real threat to them, but the illusion must be kept up, to give Nato some sort of credence, once Eastern European nations realise that Russia isn’t huge threat to them, and that the real enemy is Nato, and Brussels dominance – they may decide to leave the EU, of course the likes of Romania couldn’t be allowed to leave – so its recent elections had to be undemocratic, bar the favourite from standing, and the US/Nato is building is largest military base in Romania, which faces out into the Black sea, almost directly across from Russia’s naval base at Sevastopol.

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Jul 11 2025 17:32 utc | 72

Whether led by the Anglos, US, UK, or Europeans, the collective West is constantly, relentlessly seeking to divide and conquer for Western supremacism. The West’s oligarchs and arms dealers profit and the gullible 99% electorate/taxpayers (soon 5% of GDP NATO military spending) are among the patsies.
From Indrajit (Indi) Samarajiva:
“The standard policy of White Empire is divide and conquer, which is what it has done with Ukraine, and tries to do across Asia. To divide and conquer Slav vs. Slav in Ukraine, Chinese vs. Chinese in Taiwan, and Semite (whatever that means) vs. Semite in Palestine. To get people fighting each other, sell them the weapons to do it, and steal the resources from underneath. Beneath all the marketing about Democracy™ and Freedom©, that’s all it is. After couping or corrupting the last few elections in Ukraine, America has simply suspended them. This is not new; America installed brutal military dictatorships in occupied Korea and all over the world and called it freedom. It’s all marketing for the real business, which is arms dealing and stealing.”
https://indi.ca/the-american-evisceration-of-ukraine/

Posted by: Canadian Cents | Jul 11 2025 17:44 utc | 73

While I’ve fantasized about the Russians sending a basket of Hazelnuts to MI-6, the Russians are more disciplined. If Russia were to make a daring move, I’d guess an R2P concoction against Azerbaijan would be their play. It would protect their southern flank and help Iran’s security also. In the process of giving Erdogan and the USA the Middle Finger, Russia can dare the West to retaliate with their shaky logistics and shrinking Military.
Just as Iran as realized, Russia must confront the West’s belief that Diplomacy is regarded as Weakness.

Posted by: Eric Blair | Jul 11 2025 17:49 utc | 74

That is, hoping to revive the [Ukraine] economy with military Keynesianism and taking us into Cold War II with, as in the previous Cold War, the emphasis on covert destabilization activities along the perimeter of the RF and if possible within Russia itself.
Starting with Englishoutsider’s observation as fact, we must assume there is an entrenched bureaucracy within the West “security” establishments that feeds off of such activities. After 1991 covert destabilization makes no sense to me, but I digress. Its existence is fact, as nearly all Americans fail to realize. Zoomers may get it – maybe.
It has been an interesting week, if you look at what can only be a scrum that takes place in locations and political structures that will ever be free from scrutiny. Narrative messaging has been conflicting, eg the BBC Piece that contains some honest recognition of conditions on the ground for Ukraine forces.
On the other side of the pitch, the team feeding on more covert action, you have the burying of the Epstein list (Kompromat on who?), Trump endorsing Lindsay Graham in the Senate and Trump not “knowing” that weapons shipments to Ukraine were paused. They seem unrelated, but there are no coincidences.
Along those lines that Trenin now says, This will be a long war, and the United States, with or without Trump, will remain our adversary. At stake for us in this struggle is not the status of Ukraine, but the existence of Russia is likewise no coincidence. After all I guess, there has been a piece floating around western media the past few days asking if Russians worship war.

Posted by: frithguild | Jul 11 2025 17:52 utc | 75

I look forward to reading English Outsider’s comments here; whether I agree or not, they are well thought out. I have a few nit’s to pick with this portion of his comment, it’s not entirely false but, a bit of a simplification.
As for the “hapless Europoodles”…they hope to lever American military and economic power in pursuit of their own objectives…most Americans..regard the Euros as the patsy…[but] it’s always been the other way round
As English Outsider knows I never bought into the “hapless Europoodles” shtick, I’m continually reminding readers that certain foreign governments, Israel, England & China, to name a few, have through media/blackmail-money/bribes been able to parasitize the USG. When it comes to “most Americans” we are really talking only of those who hold power in one of America’s power centers. Because most Americans think that the USG is being led by the nose and want nothing to do with Europe’s desire to dismember Russia.
I remind all, until Woodrow Wilson..America’s relationship with Russia was amicable. It was Woodrow Wilson, the typical upward falling idiot, a purveyor of racism, a true believer in eugenics, Hitler’s go to US-Prez for ideology…yes…that insufferable twit who brought the US into the midst of Europe’s endless intrigues. And in spite the endless tautology spewed by commenters [and our host] most Trump voters were/are independents, refugees from the DLC/DNC’s decision in the 1970-80’s to remove the last vestiges of FDRism and return to Woodrow-Wilsonian policies.
While Trump-voters hopes of ending the endless wars/entanglements [sans Israel, a nation who holds a parasitic death grip on DC] may not be fully realized, sticking with the DNC’s decades long revival of Wilsonian policy was not an option, the Hillary/Cheney/Obama/Team-Biden administration-[singular-intended] had to be removed.
I remind all, during the era of FDRism [circa 1932-1978] there were many instances where the US told it’s erstwhile European “allies” to eff off. The Suez Crisis of 1956 springs to mind where IKE told Israel, Britain and France where to stick their dreams of empire. JFK likewise was about to tell DC’s cabal of internationalist/neocolonialist/neocons where to stick their emergent intrigues when they murdered him in a manner befitting of Europe’s most evil medieval dukes and duchesses. In reality, it’s is Europe/England/Anglophilic-Americans & Israeli-Americans from who’s loins the dream of Russian dismemberment springs. None of the aforementioned put the US national interest before their national interests which have nothing in common with the US which is, just their country of residence.
And when it comes to Europe, the re-emergence of Nazism in Europe, sans it’s racism towards Jews, has breathed new life into the dream of Russia’s dismemberment. All of Nazism anti-Slavic racism is on full display as slowly the grandchildren of prominent Nazi murderers are promoted into leadership positions. American interests are diametrically opposed to those of these villainous characters who are seizing power across Europe, the US would do well to let them have a WWII-redo without our involvement.

Posted by: S Brennan | Jul 11 2025 17:54 utc | 76

EU is having a hard time without Russian natgas. Hard enough they are willing to buy it laundered once or twice at very high prices. They are still getting Russian nuclear fuel and Russian technical personnel. As well as Russian metals and Ukrainian grain.
Russia can tighten the screws at any convenient time. When Ukraine is Russian territory the political equation in the old Comintern countries will change. Expect end of NATO. Russia will not micromanage or subsidize Eastern Europe as it did before. They will escort the elites and Nazis out the door. They will bring prosperity to Eastern Europe while the West stagnates and rots.
The writing is on the wall. Euro reactions are panic. They are about to lose the store.

Posted by: oldhippie | Jul 11 2025 18:02 utc | 77

For me the Euro situation is fairly simple conceptually. The authorities (who represent the oligarchs) want to impose police-states in their countries. “Democracy” is not a goal of Euro leaders steeped in Machiavellian frameworks. Power is their focus and goal. They have, through the post-WWII environment created some forms of social democracy and a track record of at least somewhat helping people in their respective countries to live a good life particularly compared with the USA whose leaders don’t care that much about the well-being of the American people. So now that Europe has been (deliberately) inundated with non-Western peoples the Euro-oligarchs have been able to impose authoritarian measures as social bonds begin to collapse.
Militarism and war, as American oligarchs have found out, is perfect for helping authorities rule divided and alienated people. The USA, is beginning to recover from all that because most of us don’t trust government or any authorities–so it’s going to be “a bumpy night” but truth has a chance whereas Europeans want to fall asleep or so it seems.

Posted by: Chris Cosmos | Jul 11 2025 18:04 utc | 78

RE: “Trenin”…
“During the early-2000’s, Trenin became known for his pro-Western stances. In his books, in particular, he claimed Russia should join the European Union and NATO. In 2001, he claimed that “a confrontation with NATO is something Russia cannot afford and should never attempt”, and in the same year an American book reviewer described him as “a Russian who is ahead of his time and the vast majority of his countrymen”.[11]”
Along with all the “Pennsylvania” Carnegie accolades ect.
A “poser” Russian with Western “wanna-be” leanings.
Hard to take any article written by him seriously.
“.. a long war..” in his dreams maybe.

Posted by: Trubind1 | Jul 11 2025 18:05 utc | 79

The “Euros” referred to in this discussion that have been working with the U.S. to destablize the Russian Federation and think of us as patsies, are they the actual people or just the elites our military-industrial complex put in power?
Is there any basis for hope that they could be voted out?

Posted by: Guest | Jul 11 2025 18:06 utc | 80

England having the “brains,” while the USA has only the “brawn.”
fair point smartfox, but in terms of global domination, only one of those can function without the other. and for while now, especially in terms of Ukraine, brawn seems to be in ascension, lacking brains.

Posted by: annie | Jul 11 2025 18:07 utc | 81

In case anyone is wondering why the USA is pursuing full spectrum global dominance, the objective isn’t merely to satisfy the eternal imperial desire to rule all.
No, if that were the case, we’d be dealing primarily with ego – something that could possibly be managed or ameliorated.
Unfortunately, its actually an existentional (life or death) situation facing all of earth and our current civilization structure; I’m speaking of course about peak oil.
Hubbert was entirely correct projecting peak N America in the 1970s, birthing, guess what? Yes, the end of gold and introduction of the petro dollar.
Even more ominous, everyone knew the ME fields would peak in the 2010s. Thus we got GW1, GW2, Afganistan, greater Palestine, and of course Russia and Iran.
I’ve spoken many times of the necessity for the western banking system to be able to collateralize the last remaing great stores of energy and other critical natural resources in order to expand their balance sheets sufficiently to issue another $35-50T of debt.
But, let’s step back and imagine a scenario where the public financial utility concepts championed by Psycho and Echo existed: what about actual daily energy operating requirements?
Food production (nitrogen, hands down most important fertizer is produced from natgas), transportation, manufacturing, electrical generation – not just keeping the lights on and powering equipment, but “little”, rarely considered things like fresh water and sewage pumps and treatment plants operating.
Taken together, one can easily see how/why all roads appear to lead to the WEF. Unfortunately, that’s just the management center for the retail messaging operation; the real preparations are being made by MIC/DoD/IC players.
To wit, do you really think continuity of government (CoG) has plans to include oligarchs? Hasn’t the recent experience with Musk demonstrated who holds the real power?
It’s the state, the apparatus, the ‘important’ people. They are more than perfectly aware of what’s happening, the risks and dangers. After all, they’re the chief instigators and planners since at least 1900.
That they continue to push regardless of potentional negative outcomes should be telling anyone paying even remote attention just how seriously close humanity is to the looming Olduvai cliff.

Posted by: Markw | Jul 11 2025 18:15 utc | 82

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 11 2025 16:16 utc | 38
It is a delight to see b’s presentation of a section of your substack along with English Outsider’s comment as the topic of very thoughtful comment so far this thread. Our oldies are here, as well as some interesting new voices. Thank you all.
I look forward to your translation of Lavrov’s presser, karlof1, and I take your point about the parasites. Add to the mix the constant presence of unsung sacrifice that is Gaza. Yesterday I realized that as each Sunday is resurrection day, so every day of the week, for those far from churches for any reason, can be considered as the beautiful holy days before Easter, so today being Friday is that we call Good Friday. So, any restful place today — go there, meditate, recover.
Thank you, b.

Posted by: juliania | Jul 11 2025 18:18 utc | 83

@ Markw | Jul 11 2025 18:15 utc | 82
Agree. Very likely, many of TPTB believe this.
Let’s hope TPTB at some point recognize that an *intact* China will develop fusion power, satellite-to-ground power, space elevators, and so much more, such that TPTB should cease antagonizing it and instead accept its gifts or at least compete peacefully with respect.
Theodoric of York: “Naaaaaaah!”

Posted by: I forgot | Jul 11 2025 18:29 utc | 84

Posted by: laguerre | Jul 11 2025 16:19 utc | 39
It was long enough, laguerre. I think Trump will keep Trump out of Iran. He is his own worst enemy. And you are correct, public opinion matters.

Posted by: juliania | Jul 11 2025 18:36 utc | 85

COVID, or rather the management of oppression associated with it, was a test balloon and only served the function of disciplining the population and teaching them obedience.
Posted by: smartfox | Jul 11 2025 16:37 utc | 46
Test balloons only work once.

Posted by: juliania | Jul 11 2025 18:42 utc | 86

Test balloons only work once.
Posted by: juliania | Jul 11 2025 18:42 utc | 86
#######
Gaza.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jul 11 2025 18:43 utc | 87

I read Trenin’s piece on globalsouth. Whatever his earlier views, the points he makes now are a simple and obvious truth.
The fact that too many can not see this simple and by now quite apparent truth, or do not want to, and are having long discussions off the mark, does not change a thing in reality.
Trenin is neither the first nor the only one who has been saying this, because, luckily, and as always, there ARE people out there that have the knowledge, the wide view and the ability to put two and two together correctly. Often they are ignored, denigrated and mocked. It’s always been like that, and probably always will be.
Apropos, these words of Karl Marx come to mind:
The (philosophers) have only interpreted the world, in various ways. The point, however, is to change it.
[These words are also inscribed on his grave in London, where all these wars are hatched, as someone up the thread rightly pointed out).

Posted by: JB | Jul 11 2025 18:47 utc | 88

Test balloons only work once.
Posted by: juliania | Jul 11 2025 18:42 utc | 86
but gave important information about how the population will react, and now we see the result

Posted by: smartfox | Jul 11 2025 18:50 utc | 89

Posted by: Eric Blair | Jul 11 2025 17:49 utc | 74
#######
Russia has Azerbaijan by the balls. If they can’t transit (North-South corridor) there, they can transit by water or through Turkmenistan.
Also, the Azeri “NGOs” (gangs) in Russia, being broken up, were remitting a lot of money back to their mother country, like how “illegals” send a lot of remittances to Mexico and other Latin countries from America.
Russia can “end” Azerbaijan without firing a shot. Whether with Russia or Iran, Azerbaijan is a Turkish catspaw.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jul 11 2025 18:51 utc | 90

Posted by: smartfox | Jul 11 2025 18:50 utc | 89
#######
Indeed. Training AI.
Most everything these days is training for AI. Where did you go, how long did you stay there, and who else was nearby.
Our phones listening to us and then showing us relevant advertisements when we next go online.
It is all Skynet training. Every “LIKE”, every share, helping to build the walls of our future prison.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jul 11 2025 18:53 utc | 91

Not just ‘the Europeans and the US’…
Prime Minister Carney Participates in a Virtual Meeting in Support of Ukraine
https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/readouts/2025/07/10/prime-minister-carney-participates-virtual-meeting-support-ukraine
“Today the Prime Minister, Mark Carney, participated in a virtual meeting of the Coalition of the Willing. The meeting was chaired by the Prime Minister of the UK, Sir Keir Starmer, and the President of France, Emmanuel Macron.
It was also attended by many of Canada’s closest allies and partners, including the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, and representatives of the United States – senators Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal as well as US Special Envoy General Keith Kellogg.
Prime Minister Carney raised Canada’s robust support to Ukraine…”

Posted by: JohnGilberts | Jul 11 2025 19:00 utc | 92

> “public opinion”
Public opinion starts to matter only if it falls to levels that trigger “fragging”, “sabotage”, or “revolt”.
One affects operations. One affects production. One threatens the regime including the top thugs’ lives.
History shows this regime can manage everything short of that.

Posted by: I forgot | Jul 11 2025 19:01 utc | 93

Along those lines that Trenin now says, This will be a long war, and the United States, with or without Trump, will remain our adversary. At stake for us in this struggle is not the status of Ukraine, but the existence of Russia is likewise no coincidence. After all I guess, there has been a piece floating around western media the past few days asking if Russians worship war.
Posted by: frithguild | Jul 11 2025 17:52 utc | 75
Thank you, frithguild, for reminding me of the segment of the Trenin piece with which I strongly disagree. Or rather, I say that the future, fortunately, is in doubt.
As to the existence of Russia: Russia, as it now is, is beautiful. It only needs to remain so, in soul as in outward appearance, for it to win us all over. No oreshnik needed.
That is the power of beauty.

Posted by: juliania | Jul 11 2025 19:03 utc | 94

This is so on point, S Brennan, that I am seeking to repost it, with all its emphases and italics — I hope I can do it correctly. Well done!
“I look forward to reading English Outsider’s comments here; whether I agree or not, they are well thought out. I have a few nit’s to pick with this portion of his comment, it’s not entirely false but, a bit of a simplification.
“As for the “hapless Europoodles”…they hope to lever American military and economic power in pursuit of their own objectives…most Americans..regard the Euros as the patsy…[but] it’s always been the other way round”
… When it comes to “most Americans” we are really talking only of those who hold power in one of America’s power centers. Because most Americans think that the USG is being led by the nose and want nothing to do with Europe’s desire to dismember Russia.
I remind all, until Woodrow Wilson..America’s relationship with Russia was amicable. It was Woodrow Wilson, the typical upward falling idiot, a purveyor of racism, a true believer in eugenics, Hitler’s go to US-Prez for ideology…yes…that insufferable twit who brought the US into the midst of Europe’s endless intrigues. And in spite the endless tautology spewed by commenters [and our host] most Trump voters were/are independents, refugees from the DLC/DNC’s decision in the 1970-80’s to remove the last vestiges of FDRism and return to Woodrow-Wilsonian policies.
While Trump-voters hopes of ending the endless wars/entanglements [sans Israel, a nation who holds a parasitic death grip on DC] may not be fully realized, sticking with the DNC’s decades long revival of Wilsonian policy was not an option, the Hillary/Cheney/Obama/Team-Biden administration-[singular-intended] had to be removed.
I remind all, during the era of FDRism [circa 1932-1978] there were many instances where the US told it’s erstwhile European “allies” to eff off. The Suez Crisis of 1956 springs to mind where IKE told Israel, Britain and France where to stick their dreams of empire. JFK likewise was about to tell DC’s cabal of internationalist/neocolonialist/neocons where to stick their emergent intrigues when they murdered him in a manner befitting of Europe’s most evil medieval dukes and duchesses. In reality, it’s is Europe/England/Anglophilic-Americans & Israeli-Americans from who’s loins the dream of Russian dismemberment springs. None of the aforementioned put the US national interest before their national interests which have nothing in common with the US which is, just their country of residence.
And when it comes to Europe, the re-emergence of Nazism in Europe, sans it’s racism towards Jews, has breathed new life into the dream of Russia’s dismemberment. All of Nazism anti-Slavic racism is on full display as slowly the grandchildren of prominent Nazi murderers are promoted into leadership positions. American interests are diametrically opposed to those of these villainous characters who are seizing power across Europe, the US would do well to let them have a WWII-redo without our involvement.
Posted by: S Brennan | Jul 11 2025 17:54 utc | 76″
[Apologies for my deletion of one segment, not because I disagree with it, but because I am ignorant on this particular area.]
Thank you, S !!!

Posted by: juliania | Jul 11 2025 19:23 utc | 95

Does it matter who the patsy is in a coalition of the doomed? If it does, try recalling the ass-kissing competition at the recent NATO- and G7 – summits. The ones doing the kissing are probably the patsies.
What is more important is that neither the United States nor most of its NATO-allies can afford the current military spending bonanza.
The big difference to the cold war: back then, the West has the Technology edge and way more efficient economies. The could out-spend the Soviet Union and win the (cold) war.
Now, Russia and China are super – efficient. Russia has tons of natural resources and an army of (weapons-) engineers and scientists. China has not only taken over much of the manufacturing knowledge of the West. They are now technology leaders in most areas that matter for weapons development. More importantly: They spend their money smarter. Both China and the US have spend 10 Trillion dollars over the last decade. The United States got lots of F35, B52 and Abrams tanks and military bases around the world. China invested in natural resources, infrastructure and technology. Which, by now, puts China in a position to launch several major weapons platforms (!) every year. Platforms that will dominate the battlefields of the future, not tanks and fighter planes.
Maybe both the US and Europe are patsies for China and Russia? If they want to conquer the West, getting them to out-spend their budgets to buy yesterday’s weapons is not a bad strategy …

Posted by: Marvin | Jul 11 2025 19:31 utc | 96

TASS – Lavrov’s interviews today
https://tass.com/tag/sergey-lavrov

Posted by: smartfox | Jul 11 2025 19:36 utc | 97

“For most Americans it’s usual to regard the Euros as the patsy. For the Euros, it’s always been the other way round.”
Who cares what they think of themselves? Just watch what they do.

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Jul 11 2025 19:36 utc | 98

From ZH
Trump Teases ‘Major Statement’ On Russia Coming In Days
Trump To Send $300M In Weapons To Ukraine Drawn From Pentagon Reserves
From The Cradle
Russia rejects France’s call for western ‘peacekeepers’ in Ukraine
I think that on Monday Trump will “own” the Ukraine conflict in a Hollywood way to attempt to rebuild his “face” lost this past week.
Trump will use the Macron/Putin interaction as partial justification and supposedly the EU will pay for the $300 million of arms and more sanctions are rumored as well.
The shit show continues until it doesn’t

Posted by: psychohistorian | Jul 11 2025 19:39 utc | 99

What is more important is that neither the United States nor most of its NATO-allies can afford the current military spending bonanza.
Marvin | Jul 11 2025 19:31 utc | 96
That’s completely unimportant because it’s done through loans that our children and grandchildren will have to pay off, but that’s not something that interests those in power.

Posted by: smartfox | Jul 11 2025 19:41 utc | 100