Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
July 26, 2025
Taiwan’s Voters Reject Anti-Chinese Recall Plot

In January 2024 Taiwan's current President Lai Ching-te won the election against two other candidates. (Taiwan has no run off elections.)

His Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) though, which supports Taiwan's independence from China, failed to get a majority in parliament. The opposition was thus, by controlling the budget, able to prevent Lai Ching-te from furthering a split from the Chinese homeland.

Like many recent election winners in so called democracies Lai Ching-te set out to manipulate the system to win powers the voters had been unwilling to concede to him. He organized a recall campaign against dozens of opposition lawmakers in the hope to gain a majority in parliament.

The New York Times reporting of it (archived) seemed to be in favor of this:

Voters in Taiwan face a critical decision on Saturday: whether to throw out 24 opposition lawmakers they elected just last year, in an extraordinary recall campaign that could put more power in the president’s hands but add to tensions with Beijing.

The vote threatens to flip the legislative balance in favor of President Lai Ching-te, who wants Taiwan to forge a future separate from China, against an opposition that favors closer ties with Beijing.

This weekend, two dozen Nationalist Party lawmakers face recall votes; an additional seven will next month.

To supporters, the “great recall” campaign reflects the vigor of Taiwan’s democracy, which emerged in the 1980s after decades of authoritarian rule under the Nationalist Party. Although a successful campaign would help Mr. Lai, many activists promoting the recalls say they are acting independently.

“We’re building a decentralized grass-roots movement,” said Molly Kuo, an organizer of one of the recall efforts in New Taipei. “We’re witnessing a deepening of democracy.”

A "decentralized grass-roots movement" that is running a well organized, millions of dollars campaign against parliament members of one specific party ???

Recall of a significant number of opposition lawmakers would make it much easier for Mr. Lai to push his agenda, which includes shifting Taiwan’s economy further from China. He could also appoint his preferred judges to Taiwan’s high court.

The recall votes were held today and the results are in. The voters did not fall for it.

In a rather pathetic attempt to cover the loss of its campaign the DDP party is urging everyone to not see the whole affair as what it is:

The defeat of a recall campaign against 24 KMT lawmakers should not be interpreted as the outcome of a struggle between political parties, the DPP argued Saturday.

Results showed all 24 legislators survived the vote, with anti-recall votes surpassing pro-recall in every election district, per the Central Election Commission.

Speaking to reporters Saturday evening, DPP Legislative Caucus Secretary-General Rosalia Wu (吳思瑤) called on the public not to rush to conclusions.

The party’s secretary-general, Lin Yu-chang (林右昌), echoed her remarks, saying the recall votes had not been a fight between political parties, so the result should not be interpreted as a victory or a defeat for one party or another, the Liberty Times reported.

Sure.

As Arnaud Bertrand comments:

[This] couldn't be more ironic coming from the same party that explicitly framed the entire campaign as exactly this: presenting themselves, the DPP, as heroically trying to "save Taiwan's democracy" from the KMT, painting them as existential threats because of their pro-China bent. But now that they lost they suddenly want to pretend it was all just a non-partisan civic exercise.

The NYT report, written before the voting, noticed that this outcome would have consequences:

Widespread rejection of the recalls could hint at tepid support for Mr. Lai’s party ahead of local and presidential elections, experts say.

With his anti-China position Lai Ching-te is the U.S.' preferred candidate. As he is now likely to lose the next presidential election Taiwan should watch out for some of the usual U.S. directed manipulations.

Comments

Hi B
You have any take on the Cambodia Thailand conflict in light of the planned canal that would allow China to skip the Malacca straits and avoid western influence?

Posted by: Stephane | Jul 26 2025 16:26 utc | 1

Is this what the kids call a self-own?

Posted by: nwwoods | Jul 26 2025 16:27 utc | 2

I understand the impatience for China to bring Taiwan back into the fold forcibly.
That said, I have come to appreciate the confidence and patience that know that Taiwan will always be China, regardless of what anyone says.
Truth always wins.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jul 26 2025 16:32 utc | 3

Wait a minute! What kind of democratic country would have its president call for the recall of opposition lawmakers?

Posted by: CIROC | Jul 26 2025 16:33 utc | 4

Tiwan dosnt want to end up like Ukraine meat grinder, and total destruction.

Posted by: Andrew | Jul 26 2025 16:42 utc | 5

Perhaps they will cancel the elections because of ‘Chinese meddling’.
It’s the democratic thing to do.

Posted by: ChatNPC | Jul 26 2025 16:53 utc | 6

thanks b… it is a positive outcome and hopefully the people of taiwan will not be easily fooled..

Posted by: james | Jul 26 2025 16:55 utc | 7

it is becoming more and more clear that the idea of democracy is quite a sham most of the time… this is another example of it..

Posted by: james | Jul 26 2025 16:56 utc | 8

First time an old hick like me got invited to a country club: yesterday I went to a commemoration of Minnie Vautrin, presented by the People’s Republic of China in hometown Illinois. My friend runs the Illinois Historical Society. Minnie is a local girl who found herself in Nanking and ended up saving thousands of women and children, a true hero.
Lots of impressions but I’ll summarize. The Americans attending were 100% boomers, very smart, (democrats) and polite. Men wore a sport coat, no tie. I was underdressed. The Consulate brought around 7 young Chinese diplomats– 20 somethings– along with the 50 year old consul general. They set up around 30 easels with big photos of WW2 and Nanjing, lots of text, a very good instructive set up. The consul general gave a 15 minute speech in halting English, mentioned Xi quite a few times, BRI, plans to continue growing and empowering the middle class, similar to an FDR chat. The main topic, though was the importance of fighting fascism and the Chinese memory of WW2, 40 million deaths (his number) and the fraternal bond (his word) between the Chinese and American people at that time. He talked about the UN and the need for diplomacy, for talking and listening and getting to know each other. He invited us to the consulate and promised very good food. I was impressed, moved actually.
Later I got a chance to talk with the vice consul, probably in his 30s, and had a real nice discussion about his hometown in central China and our mushroom growing (shiitake). I invited them to come back down and stay with us. I’ll let you all know if they do.
Meanwhile, most of my blue team friends were an bit bent out of shape so we’re going to get together and we’ll probably end up in a fight. That’s ok.
Anyway, gives me hope.

Posted by: migueljose | Jul 26 2025 17:04 utc | 9

Is the US now planning a new “Color coded revolution” this time in Taiwan ?

Posted by: WMG | Jul 26 2025 17:16 utc | 10

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jul 26 2025 16:32 utc | 3
> That said, I have come to appreciate the confidence and patience that know that Taiwan will always be China, regardless of what anyone says.
Well people say all kinds of things.
However, the official name of Taiwan is Republic of China.
You didn’t know that?

Posted by: hopehely | Jul 26 2025 17:18 utc | 11

Rosalia Wu plagiarized this from a fortune cookie message: ‘do not rush to conclusions, ‘

Posted by: Áobh Ó’Sheachnasaigh | Jul 26 2025 17:19 utc | 12

Grassroots movement was called Bluebird after the street the protests started. Another ‘Grassroots’ movement will surely sprout soon enough with another groovy name, hard to beat US democracy.

Posted by: Ogre | Jul 26 2025 17:22 utc | 13

“We’re witnessing a deepening of democracy.”
Just like accusations of racism or anti semitism, nobody should accept claims of “democracy” without concrete investigation ever again in the west. All these terms are totally meaningless abstractions routinely used to manipulate the public’s natural desire for an egalitarian form of government and opposition to the hatred of others based solely on race/religion.
That said, this is very encouraging news. I’ve visited this country and had a sense that the wage slaves there were far shrewder that the Ukies when it comes to Imperialist manipulation.
Nonetheless, Imperialism will just fall back to the tragic Philippines should Taiwan fail to self mutilate on Imperialism’s behalf.
It’s very sad to see the Philippines still hanging on to the now totally insane delusion that they will continue to benefit from their alliance with the US government. He’s no prince, but Duterte at least seemed to understand that times have changed. That’s why they tossed him in the Hague. Perhaps his party can win power again and renew their business with China? Multiple US murderer squads throughout your country or high speed rail and trade with a healthy young economic powerhouse? Seems like an easy call.

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Jul 26 2025 17:25 utc | 14

I respect your commentary, but as someone who has resided in Taiwan for more than 20 years, the sad fact is you have absolutely no clue what you are talking about. That you cite Arnaud Bertrand, a staunch pro-China voice, eqyally clueless on Taiwan, is but further evidence of your ignorance.
I wish I could offer a point by point rebuttal, but because the basic premise of your piece is completely erroneous, that is not feasible.

Posted by: Kingfelix | Jul 26 2025 17:46 utc | 15

Posted by: james | Jul 26 2025 16:56 utc | 8
#######
Like Zelensky as a peace candidate.
Like Trump being pro-peace.
They “get” us by appealing to ideals (peace, shared governance, etc.) and like Charlie Brown, we fall for it every time.
Hierarchy is natural and has many examples. As we see in Russia and China, an effective autocracy doesn’t allow for systemic corruption.
And that is why people cannot have such leadership.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jul 26 2025 17:53 utc | 16

Posted by: Kingfelix | Jul 26 2025 17:46 utc | 15
######
You didn’t make a single substantive point.
We can cite Taiwanese voices that do not agree with the DPP. That is why the DPP is losing seats and resorting to political machinations.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jul 26 2025 17:58 utc | 17

Kingfelix | Jul 26 2025 17:46 utc | 15
If you can’t condescend to particularise your criticism of our host’s post, than you can hardly expect to be taken seriously. Just saying someone is wrong is not enough on a forum. Put forward your arguments and show us where b gets it wrong. Humour us.

Posted by: Vragtes | Jul 26 2025 18:10 utc | 18

@Ahenobarbus | Jul 26 2025 17:25 utc | 14
Yes – we are inundated with incessant torrents of “totally meaningless abstractions” … as you succinctly put it.
… as my “Cringe Monitor” re-directs to preserve me poor sanity …
Brooks Falls – Katmai National Park, Alaska 2025 powered by EXPLORE.org
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=73-EekdVVU8

Posted by: Don Firineach | Jul 26 2025 18:12 utc | 19

Posted by: Kingfelix | Jul 26 2025 17:46 utc | 15
You mean to say you’re a CIA spook living on the island for 20 years so that makes you the leading authority on all things Taiwan.

Posted by: Surferket | Jul 26 2025 18:37 utc | 20

Thailand isnt Taiwan but..
Thailand’s F-16s and Gripens jointly bomb Cambodian indirect fire positions to defend two strategic areas
SATURDAY, JULY 26, 2025

Posted by: petergrfstrm | Jul 26 2025 18:39 utc | 21

even for a CIA spook, one has to be a special kind of clueless Joe to think “PRO CHINA” would be considered a grave insult here 😉

Posted by: roflmao | Jul 26 2025 18:45 utc | 22

@ LoveDonbass | Jul 26 2025 17:53 utc | 16
yes, i agree with you.. they don’t get everyone, but they get way too many in this false presentation of democracy when it is just a convenient cloak for capitalism..

Posted by: james | Jul 26 2025 18:45 utc | 23

Democracy -the most deceitful word .
Democracy-a propaganda word-How world wars was started by England—-
In fact this talk of democracy and freedom and secularism started soon after start of ww1 when England started losing the war. It begged other nations to help her in name of democracy and freedom. Think of it_ England which had enslaved so much of world population and killed and exploited them( they are still proud of it) asking in name of freedom! In fact what england means by secularism is worship of her kings and kings, by democracy is meant dictatorship of English shopkeepers and by freedom is meant freedom to exploit other nations and people. The same freedom for other nations is not to be granted. the same worship of other Royal peoples is not to be encouraged. Only for English royals or those who have been made stooge royals like those of Saudi-Arabia or Kuwait. Kaiser is to be a villain because He wanted exactly the same things for German peoples as the English wanted for themselves. After all Hitler was evil but what crime did Kaiser did Soon before w.w.1 the Japanese had attacked and defeated Russia in naval battle. That was arranged and financed in London with help of German Jews who had settled in America. But after ww1,in the league of nations and in american immigration policies, the erstwhile friend-Japanese were not given respectable position on the prompting of Britain . That was the start of anti-Japanese propaganda by the british who in ww2 asked american to block all raw material supply for Japan. In other words ,much before American entry into ww2, U.S. had already done an act of war against Japan in order to help England maintain her ill-gotten colony. In between wars, the english sympathisers had already been doing what Hitler was to do in Germany against Jews. But those very american racist very the first to jump for action against Germany at outbreak of war. Of course from the first days of ww2,America had been giving all arms and help to britain .It was fighting war without declaration. There are unexplained phenomenon of W.W. “ .-of which no satisfactory explanation has yet been given because all explanations and propaganda has been by british-directed and of course british have to be given all possible benefit of doubt. These phenomenon are (a) Why Was Hitler surprised at british declaration of WW2
(b) Why did Hitler not attack England (if he was supposed to do) and let england have more preparation for more than 1 years
c) Even later when Hitler acted on western front, why did he allow Dunkirk Why did he not finish the English army as he could have done Why did he halt attack for 3 days to let the English cowards flee through Dunkirk

Posted by: Sam | Jul 26 2025 18:45 utc | 24

Posted by: Kingfelix | Jul 26 2025 17:46 utc | 15
===
You wrote “as someone who has resided in Taiwan for more than 20 years”. Are you a Westerner?

Posted by: Antiwar7 | Jul 26 2025 18:59 utc | 25

The minority party governing because of a Constitutional oddity put forth arguments in its attempt to alter its political position only to discover it’s clearly a minority. The attempt to save face has also failed, which IMO is more significant than the electoral defeat. The impact of Typhoon Danas and mismanagement in response was deemed a factor in the election outcome. Trump’s Trade/Tariff War also had an unfavorable result for Taiwan as this report notes:

Lai Qingde thought that he had lowered his head to his knees, and Trump would definitely let Taiwan go, and then he could declare that “Taiwan-US relations are as solid as a rock, the best in history”, and the foundation of governance will be consolidated.
However, Lai Qingde misestimated Trump. Under the banner of “America First” and “America Great Again”, the US-Japan alliance and US-EU relations have been put aside. What’s more, the opponent who took the initiative to “take off his pants” to show his trump card before Trump played his card, although he ran over to “kiss Trump’s buttocks”, did not bring Trump a trace of “extreme pressure” negotiation pleasure.

The conclusion of this op/ed is quite strong:

Peace is what people want, and reunification is the general trend. The result of this “mass recall” campaign demonstrates the mainstream will of Taiwan society, signifies the burst of Lai’s dream of “Taiwan independence,” and proves once again that Lai is the “impurity” that should be eliminated. Just as the People’s Daily article “The fallacy of ‘the People’s Republic of China has never ruled Taiwan’ should be stopped” has aroused strong reactions and widespread recognition on both sides of the Taiwan Straits and overseas, the world has seen clearly that “Taiwan independence” is a dead end, and the historical trend of the motherland’s inevitable reunification is mighty, and Lai and his ilk are being buried by public opinion and the times.

A second round targeting seven KMT Parliamentarians in scheduled for 23 August. Here’s an important fact about such elections in Taiwan:
“According to local election rules, a recall vote will pass if the number of valid votes in agreement exceeds the number of votes in disagreement. The number of votes in agreement must also equal at least a quarter of the total number of eligible voters in the electoral district.”

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 26 2025 19:03 utc | 26

Miguel Jose @9
Thank you for that. It sounds like a grand time. Your description of being underdressed reminds me of functions when I was young, before I discovered thrift stores with fancy clothes.
Your story gives me hope too.

Posted by: Share | Jul 26 2025 19:06 utc | 27

I saw a YT short with a Taiwanese influencer who went to the mainland and was blown away by how advanced China looked.
He was pissed off when he came back to TW to resume posting.
That is how nationalistic propaganda works. The other is a troll and lives in a dark, dirty hellscape.
The camera phone has been the most socially influential invention in the last century.
I remember when the US Congress was going to ban TikTok so people wouldn’t be able to see what was happening in Palestine.
China has another app, “Red Note” which caught on with the TikTok community and it featured really good real-time translation, so Americans were meeting and talking to Chinese live and uncensored.
The Chinese couldn’t believe how expensive everything was in the West, and vice versa. A massive blow to the propaganda narratives of China hawks.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jul 26 2025 19:33 utc | 28

Wouldn’t it be nice if the Chinese people could straighten out their post-colonial problems without quite so much advice and assistance from the enlightened West? I can dream, can’t I?

Posted by: Aleph_Null | Jul 26 2025 19:46 utc | 29

And that is why, IMO, we must share the quotes, images, and videos of the genocide and the real China far and wide.
I want to believe we’ve hit critical mass with Palestine, but what if we have not?
Never underestimate an opponent. That’s unforgivable.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jul 26 2025 19:46 utc | 30

Posted by: Aleph_Null | Jul 26 2025 19:46 utc | 29
#########
That’s a childish sentiment.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jul 26 2025 19:47 utc | 31

According to Taiwan polling by an independent organization that I saw on-line this year, only 7% of the Taiwan population supported the option of. Independence according to the survey. This despite the obviously far higher percentage who supported the current president in the last election. If irc, the status quo was preferred by the plurality of Taiwanese voters that took the survey.

Posted by: mjh | Jul 26 2025 20:06 utc | 32

Kingfelix. Is the product of the state department children I met and taught in Taiwan. These people never spent 5 minutes wondering the streets of Taipei or any other villages. They didn’t ride trains they had drivers! They never vacationed in Taiwan they went to Phuket. Their social life was at the American Club where they would leave their children with foreign Nannie’s and go off and get wasted.. They had no clue what the people wanted for their future and they didn’t care; but worked for putting a ring around China: Taiwan was another Island in the ring.. Taiwan is socially linked as well as economic linked to the mainland. The majority of flights are going to China, and it depends on it economically . The majority do not want US troops raping their women like they do in Japan.

Posted by: susan | Jul 26 2025 20:11 utc | 33

Posted by: susan | Jul 26 2025 20:11 utc | 33
Good post.

Posted by: arby | Jul 26 2025 20:22 utc | 34

The silliest aspect of AmeriKKKa’s anti-unification campaign is that the most bellicose statement Xi Zinping has uttered re Taiwan is that he “hasn’t ruled out military force.”
Imo, this entire storm-in-a-teacup is a product of Chinese Humour.
1. The “deadline” for reunification is 2049.
2. Hundreds of thousands of Chinese and Taiwanese travel across the Strait each day, visa-free. i.e. as Chinese.
3. I’d bet $1,000,000 that China doesn’t give a Tinker’s Cuss whether the 2049 deadline is missed or met. Just giving the Dumbass Yankees something to hyperventillate about, and help them to keep believing their own Infantile Bullshit, would be reward enough for China.com.
4. I recall that in the 1950s, during a Mickey Mouse Club episode, Walt Disney informed viewers that “Chinese children laugh inwardly.” But I knew, from observing Chinese classmates, that Walt was Wrong.

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Jul 26 2025 20:29 utc | 35

Not at all sure the KMT is all that “pro-China.” So far as I can tell, the KMT has currently no more interest in re-unification than it does in independence. My guess is this is because the KMT wants to re-unite with a truly capitalist mainland. If so, I agree that the PRC is not a capitalist country, not like Taiwan. So although the KMT wants to keep building capitalism in the mainland economy via trade, until the mainland wants to negotiate terms of surrender to capitalist restoration, the KMT will be satisfied with the status quo. By the way, the democratic right of nations to self-determination also must include the right to national unity. Reunification with the PRC is an elementary democratic right. I fear the KMT sees reunification on a platform of “one nation, two systems” as insufficient to their ultimate goal, “one nation, our system.” (The last is not a literal quotation but a figure of speech.)

Posted by: steven t johnson | Jul 26 2025 20:32 utc | 36

Taiwan’s DPP is incapable of governing at all but excels at fighting its political opponents. That is one of the reasons for the recalls- to divert the attention from the governing failures and grab the power back in the legislature. One DPP’s main characteristic is that it is very united when it fights an external opponent like KMT or Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) regardless how intensive its factions fight each other internally. DPP actually was fed up by Lee Tenghui at its early stage. At the time, Lee was KMT’s leader and internally fought for power with KMT traditional factions. Chen Shiubien got his first presidency because of KMT’s infighting. Lai won his presidency in a similar manner when KMT and TPP split the votes. DPP’s base is solidly around 33% and may get closer to 40% when the circumstances is favorable to it. So it is in general 60% not for DPP in Taiwan. Tsai Inwen won her 2nd term with a slide because she played the opposing-China-and-protect-Taiwan (“抗中保台”) heavily in her presidential campaign after HK riots in 2019-20, which were actually amerikkkan’s color acts. Taiwanese believe amerikkkan-style freedom and democracy very very very much, probably to the bone after being brainwashed for decades. Lai is very stubborn and will not change course on his own. If he ever changes, it’s because he is given orders from whom he dare not violate.
KMT did it well this round because DPP really screwed things up so badly. For example, Lai’s hometown in Tainan got flooded from a typhoon a few weeks back and he showed no sympathy to the victims but was fully occupied by the recalls. Ironically, there was a historical flood in Guizhou, China around the same time frame. And China’s PLA jumped in to the disaster areas quickly and used drones to deliver HOT meals to the victims. This video (in Chinese) shows people in the disaster areas sending off PLA and rescue teams from elsewhere in China. You can feel their sincere appreciation for those coming to help. There is a Chinese saying “When one in need, help from eight directions.” (一方有難,八方來援).
In addition, no matter who comes to power in Taiwan- DPP, KMT, or TPP, it is still an amerikkkan servant. amerikkka will NOT allow anyone who does not follow its orders coming to the power in Taiwan. DPP is actually the best fit to amerikkkan interests because it will sell out Taiwan’s people the most even though they claim they love Taiwan the most. It’s because DPP’s independence leaning and amerikkka (plus Japan) is their only hope. So they will do EVERYTHING to keep amerikkka happy.
This is probably a small reverse in a long trend. Although it is encouraging, it’s still early to make a judgement. One also needs to know that DPP has NO shame (just like the current WH occupier) so DPP can and will do anything and everything to cling to power for themselves and its master.

Posted by: LuRenJia | Jul 26 2025 20:35 utc | 37

A truly independent Taiwan would, it seems, need FARA.

Posted by: jorge | Jul 26 2025 20:51 utc | 38

@steven t johnson | Jul 26 2025 20:32 utc | 36

Not at all sure the KMT is all that “pro-China.” So far as I can tell, the KMT has currently no more interest in re-unification than it does in independence.

You are right on this one. DPP is pro-independence (from China). KMT wants to keep the status quo so they can have a chance to be the boss (president) of the island. President sounds much better than Governor, right? TPP is probably on the fence between the two with a little leaning to DPP. There is no English term for these but in Chinese, DPP is 台獨 and KMT is 獨台. It is the same two Chinese words but in reverse order and means neither DPP nor KMT is for reunification.
As for the capitalism part, is capitalism unquestionably good? The west treats that word like an unquestionable term, which is astonishing.
As for the democratic part, Taiwan likes to say its fate is determined by its 23 million people. However, since Taiwan is a part of China, China says “not too fast, it is not by 23 million, it should be determined by 1.4 billion plus 23 million.” Is that the real democratic?! /sarc

Posted by: LuRenJia | Jul 26 2025 20:56 utc | 39

This sounds like good news to me. My gut feeling has always been that China would “invade” Taiwan the moment if felt threatened by troublemaking Americans using Taiwan as a launching pad for weapons aimed at China. Just like what happened in US backed and led former state of Ukraine.

Posted by: chunga | Jul 26 2025 21:00 utc | 40

With this defeat of the recall campaign that targeted 24 KMT lawmakers, President Lai would be foolish to go ahead with a second recall campaign targeting another seven KMT legislators in August. If the second recall campaign fails, he really will be a national laughingstock and his chances of a fourth presidential term will be grim. At that point, you would wonder what other, more desperate measures (short of banning the KMT and other opposition parties) he and the DPP will resort to, under pressure from an increasingly unhinged Washington DC.
Lai should consider calling off the second recall campaign or postpone it to a much later date, if it is that important to him and his party.

Posted by: Refinnejenna | Jul 26 2025 21:19 utc | 41

Posted by: Kingfelix | Jul 26 2025 17:46 utc | 15
🌮 … Have consolation taco — on the house.

Posted by: Laurence | Jul 26 2025 22:05 utc | 42

@chunga | Jul 26 2025 21:00 utc | 40,
Unfortunately, amerikkka surely won’t let Taiwan go easily. In Taiwan’s recent annual Hanguang exercise, there are 300+ amerikkkan military advisors who monitor and grade how Taiwan’s military performs. The scenario that amerikkkan sets up for Taiwan is likely urban warfare since Taiwan’s cities are crowded. amerikkka can maximize it for propaganda. In the exercise, there is NO evacuation for civilians at all but military forces mix within. Apparently, amerikkkan setup is to use civilians for human shields to increase potential casualties, which is the more the better from amerikkkan view.
Time is running out for amerikkka. On one hand, amerikkka is squeezing Taiwan hard for money and technologies (TSMC) that it needs. amerikkka will not leave one cent behind for Taiwan. On the other hand, amerikkkan chance to win a fight with China between Japan and Guam in the west Pacific keeps shrinking day by day. In the west of Japan, yankees can go home if they don’t want to stay there in a different form forever.
China’s reunification with Taiwan is not if but when. And it will very likely conclude no more than 5 years from now.

Posted by: LuRenJia | Jul 26 2025 22:16 utc | 43

@LuRenJia – I think it’s fair to say Ukrainians would be a lot better off if they hadn’t poked the bear on behalf of Americans.

Posted by: chunga | Jul 26 2025 22:39 utc | 44

Just checking in and what a troll invasion! Case in point: The guy who is supposedly and expert on Taiwan, shits on everyone and provides no alternative analysis.
He’s probably a white dude from Colorado. But his attack on the bar is a threadbare old canard meant to divide: no westerner can understand any eastern society. Yes, Taiwan, modern globalized capitalist society is just a total mystery. Like studying mars or something!
There’s an even stupider, domestic version of this Imperialist divide and conquer trick: No wage slave who is not Asian, could ever understand an Asian wage slave. Insert whatever race here. Oh, and it’s actually a sort of hitlerian racism that would even motivate one wage slave to attempt to understand the experience of another of a different race.
You know the trolls by their fruits. If the logic of their post is to separate working humanity into petty tribes, that’s a Zio, Ukroid or other agent of Imperialism. They’d love a world of infinite separatist, impotent tribes based on arbitrary physical characteristics, not politics. They just play one band of myopic idiots off the other eternally.

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Jul 26 2025 23:09 utc | 45

In addition, no matter who comes to power in Taiwan- DPP, KMT, or TPP, it is still an amerikkkan servant. amerikkka will NOT allow anyone who does not follow its orders coming to the power in Taiwan. DPP is actually the best fit to amerikkkan interests because it will sell out Taiwan’s people the most even though they claim they love Taiwan the most. It’s because DPP’s independence leaning and amerikkka (plus Japan) is their only hope. So they will do EVERYTHING to keep amerikkka happy.
This is probably a small reverse in a long trend. Although it is encouraging, it’s still early to make a judgement. One also needs to know that DPP has NO shame (just like the current WH occupier) so DPP can and will do anything and everything to cling to power for themselves and its master.
Posted by: LuRenJia | Jul 26 2025 20:35 utc | 37
Nice background information, but I wouldn’t be so pessimistic. Unlike other Asian countries, China has real deep influence in Taiwan. They are clearly more clever than the US government in geopolitics and economics. Why would you assume, now of all times in the history of the world, that US Imperialism will eternally call the shots in Taiwan? That’s either suicidal pessimism or immense faith in what appears to all to be a collapsing western Imperialism. You must think US AI will taxi drive us all to Mars and back in just a few years, right?

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Jul 26 2025 23:17 utc | 46

The nation-state is neither an eternal verity nor a natural phenomenon. Especially as our overheated planet casts a troubled atmosphere over all creatures great and small. Our planet now features continually contracting coastlines, everywhere — a predicament the nation-state concept, not to mention humankind, has never before confronted. There’s no particular reason to advocate the rigid enforcement of oppressive borders, not for the sake of borders alone. Every human being, and no human being, is a refugee.
The only reason to respect national sovereignty is to the degree it fosters human dignity and peace on Earth. Lavrov and others have taught us two principles of peaceful coexistence:

The head of the Russian diplomatic department recalled that the Declaration on the Principles of International Law states that the principle of territorial integrity is applicable to States whose governments respect the principle of equality and self-determination of peoples.

The hegemonic attitude grotesquely over-emphasizes territorial integrity, dumping any pretense of political legitimacy: “equality and self-determination of peoples,” in this case, the Chinese people of the mainland, Hong Kong, and on the island of Formosa. I would modestly suggest an experiment in leaving the Chinese alone to manage their own affairs. They have a reputation for being pretty smart, some of them. The Chinese require zero assistance from Leviathan, in smoothing out any inter-Chinese problems, imho.

Posted by: Aleph_Null | Jul 26 2025 23:42 utc | 47

I can’t read everything here and Arnaud Bertrand’s recent article How a US Think Tank accidentally wrote the most honest document about American empire was probably pointed out by other barflies or by B himself. For those who, like me, always arrive late to the party (it’s just too unfair!), here is the link:
https://arnaudbertrand.substack.com/p/how-a-us-think-tank-accidentally

The Hudson Institute just published a 128-page blueprint titled “China after Communism: Preparing for a Post-CCP China,” edited by Miles Yu (director of the Institute’s China Center), which provides detailed operational plans for inducing Chinese regime collapse through systematic information operations, financial warfare, and covert influence campaigns, followed by detailed protocols for U.S. post-collapse management including military occupation, territorial reorganization, and the installation of a political and cultural system vassalized to the U.S.

The entire article is only accessible by registration, but it has been translated into French on the Saker francophone website, use an automatic translation:
https://lesakerfrancophone.fr/un-groupe-de-reflexion-etasunien-a-accidentellement-redige-le-document-le-plus-honnete-sur-lempire-americain

Posted by: Leuk | Jul 27 2025 0:09 utc | 48

There would be few problems between Taiwan and mainland China if the US could just get the f*Ck out of the region and continually trying to cause problems. They now appear to be doing it on the Thai-Cambodia border as well just to irritate the Chinese.
Post WWII Taiwan saw the rise of the US driven ‘China First Policy’: in other words the US pushed support for Taiwan being part of China. They facilitated Chian Kai-shek’s KMT escape to Taiwan after the defeat of the Japanese who ruled the island. Then Chiang’s brutes murdered around 20,000 young Taiwanese who rejected Chiang’s corrupt brutes who moved in. ‘Nothing to see here’ said the US as they lavishly supported Chiang against Mao and the recommencement of the Chinese Civil War with the usual anti-Marxist cold war bull. I remind people that Taiwan had no democracy until the early 1990s.
Now since Obama’s ‘Pivot to Asia’ which was actually denied to even exist by the US for years, the US despite claiming to respect the ‘One China’ policy promotes that Taiwan does not belong to China and pushes for Taiwanese independence.
Of course China has always said they would wait until 2050 for peaceful reunification, it was not a major issue, ‘one country two systems’ has always been OK.
So once again the antagonists here are no other than the US bullies who cannot cope with the fact that China is doing far better economically and in terms of technological progress in the world, than they are. Can’t have that, so sabotage through wanton instability and attempt to destroy another country through warfare, as it is with Russia, and Iran, and Pakistan, and Cambodia, and Burma, the South Pacific, and Central and South America, and Australia, and every other place on Earth where the US sees fit, often through ‘colour revolutions’ is the continued name of the game.

Posted by: George | Jul 27 2025 1:21 utc | 49

@Ahenobarbus | Jul 26 2025 23:17 utc | 46

Unlike other Asian countries, China has real deep influence in Taiwan. They are clearly more clever than the US government in geopolitics and economics. Why would you assume, now of all times in the history of the world, that US Imperialism will eternally call the shots in Taiwan? That’s either suicidal pessimism or immense faith in what appears to all to be a collapsing western Imperialism.

Politically, PRC has no direct influence in Taiwan. Lee Tenghui started to systematically remove Chinese elements from Taiwan’s K-12 curriculum since mid-1990. DPP’s Chen took power from KMT in 2000 and continued and enhanced Lee’s work. KMT’s Ma got the presidency in 2008-2016 but did nothing to clear what Lee and DPP’s did. Tsai kept on removing more Chinese related material from Taiwan’s education. So it has been a 30-year “effort” and the results start to show up- most youth in Taiwan now think themselves as Taiwanese rather than Chinese. Can this be corrected? Yes, it can but it takes time, maybe not 30 years but 10 years or at least one generation will be likely. Do you know how many people will publicly state in favor of reunification in Taiwan now? Do you know DPP makes troubles for people who support for reunification in Taiwan now?
Taiwan is a loyal amerikkkan servant since at least 2000. No politician in Taiwan dares to say no to amerikkkan now. When amerikkka calls the shot on Taiwan will be its last time to play the Taiwan card and it is also the final bet before it completely exits the west Pacific militarily. The reason amerikkka would do it is to bet on the near-zero chance that it could beat China after calling the shot. However, the more realistic and likely outcome would be quite the opposite of what amerikkka thought.
Look at what amerikkka does in the west Pacific now, not what it says. It is working hard to prepare the coming conflict even though its chance becomes less and less. IMHO, most nations, especially those in the region, know what’s coming except the idiotic Filipino. Does China want any conflict? No. But it is not China’s call and China can’t prevent amerikkka from dreaming. Underestimate how low amerikkka can go at your own peril. There is no limit on the low side for amerikkka. amerikkka can always get lower and lower.

Posted by: LuRenJia | Jul 27 2025 1:48 utc | 50

@George | Jul 27 2025 1:21 utc | 49,

I remind people that Taiwan had no democracy until the early 1990s.

Apparently, your democracy is amerikkkan-style one and your history about Taiwan looks like propaganda from either DPP or pro-Taiwan-independence people. Is there democracy in Taiwan now? IMO, NO. What Taiwan has today is democracy-in-name-only. Real democracy is not just vote. But most people mistakenly think voting IS democracy. In Taiwan, DPP could initialize the recalls within one year after the election simply because it does not like the legislature under the opposition’s control. Few people asked who funded these efforts to start the recalls? At the beginning, DPP still hide behind the so-called civil groups for the recalls. As it progressed not in DPP’s favor, the whole DPP party machine and Lai’s administration (yes, the central government) jumped in to promote hard in favor of recalls. DPP had done the recall thing twice at local levels- one success in Kaohsiung and one failure in Keelung. And DPP even changed the rules to make recalls easier. Is that real democracy? DPP seems now addicted to recalls when it loses elections since it is easy to do and a good distraction from DPP’s governing failures. Lai had done NOTHING for Taiwan after one year in power. Well, Lai did do things for amerikkka such as sending TSMC to Arizona and buying a lot of amerikkka weaponry that is probably useless to Taiwan.

Posted by: LuRenJia | Jul 27 2025 2:08 utc | 51

Ho Chi Minh was a wise leader, rest of Asia should heed his words.
“We’d rather sniff a bit of French poo than eat Chinese poo for the rest of our lives!”

Posted by: wowreally | Jul 27 2025 2:23 utc | 52

Posted by: LuRenJia | Jul 27 2025 2:08 utc | 51
Wow what complete misunderstanding of what I wrote.
The same phony ‘democracy’ exists in Taiwan as you get in most places in the West as well, not just Taiwan. I would not argue about that. And it is deeply controlled by the US. And while you choose to be pedantic and mindlessly critical, the official democracy (whether phoney or not) started when I said it did.
You seem to completely misunderstand the larger point I make that the US tolerated the fact that there was no democracy in Taiwan until the 1990s when it was ‘officially’ brought into being, meanwhile they complained about mainland China’s lack of democracy. Same with British rule over Hong Kong that had no democratic vote or parliament either, but after the British left they complained it had no democracy as well.
“your history about Taiwan looks like propaganda from either DPP or pro-Taiwan-independence people”
To me it looks like you have English reading comprehension problems. I actually argue the very opposite of what you mistakenly claim. I suggest you go back and actually try to read what I wrote rather than get upset.

Posted by: George | Jul 27 2025 2:54 utc | 53

The US hegemonic, Zionist psychopaths just can’t leave shit alone, can they? Their meddling RARELY works in their favor.
“Voters in Taiwan face a critical decision on Saturday: whether to throw out 24 opposition lawmakers they elected just last year…”
LMAO! The US manipulations just show how LITTLE they care about democracy. What does that word mean anyway, other than to manipulate or gaslight.
Anywho, the voters in TAIWAN ALREADY MADE THEIR CHOICE. It’s just that their US puppet doesn’t like it and decided it would be a good idea to disrespect the will of the voters.
In the end, the voters gave the US puppet a good ass kicking! The Prez elections should be interesting, eh?

Posted by: Kay | Jul 27 2025 2:55 utc | 54

The US and the West have installed their own imperialist buyouts that belittle the indigenous people of the land in every developing country under the guise of “defending democracy”.
I am glad to see that this trashy art is becoming much less acceptable in East Asia these days.

Posted by: Nokaz | Jul 27 2025 3:25 utc | 55

Posted by: wowreally | Jul 27 2025 2:23 utc | 52
This is a disputed quote:
The historian Professor Liam Kelley of the University of Hawaii at Manoa on his Le Minh Khai’s SEAsian History Blog challenged the authenticity of the
alleged quote where Ho Chi Minh said he would rather sniff French shit than eat Chinese shit, noting that Stanley Karnow provided no source for the
extended quote attributed to Ho in his 1983 Vietnam: A History, and that the original quote was most likely forged by the Frenchman Paul Mus in his
1952 book Viêt-Nam: Sociologie d’une Guerre, Mus was a supporter of French colonialism in Vietnam and Ho Chi Minh knew that there was no danger of
Chinese troops staying in Vietnam, and in fact the Vietnamese at the time were busy spreading anti-French propaganda as evidence of French atrocities
in Vietnam emerged, while Ho Chi Minh showed no qualms about accepting Chinese aid after 1949.
You are thus deliberately spreading anti-Chinese crap to suit your racism
https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Ho_Chí_Minh

Posted by: George | Jul 27 2025 5:34 utc | 56

The Chinese living on Formosa look to The Ukrainian example and say – No Thanks we‘ll take peaceful cooperation

Posted by: Exile | Jul 27 2025 5:52 utc | 57

Posted by: chunga | Jul 26 2025 22:39 utc | 44

@LuRenJia – I think it’s fair to say Ukrainians would be a lot better off if they hadn’t poked the bear on behalf of Americans.

But is this relevant from an American perspective? Perhaps you should ask if America is better off after having poked the bear in Ukraine.
And if we extend this thinking to the Pacific, what could America do to undermine the emergence of a dominant Asian continent?

Posted by: robin | Jul 27 2025 6:42 utc | 58

I am Taiwanese. Family been in Taiwan over four hundred years.
This is a good analysis B. It is a defeat for the double think double tongued DPP.
Democracy has been gravely under attack. This recall is like Hitler’s burning down of the Reichstag back in 1933. Taiwan is not out of danger yet. People face to wake up to the cancer that the DPP has become.

Posted by: Allen | Jul 27 2025 7:23 utc | 59

SCMP led me to this source
What’s Legally Allowed in War
How U.S. military lawyers see Israel’s invasion of Gaza—and the public’s reaction to it—as a dress rehearsal for a potential conflict with a foreign power like China.
By Colin Jones
April 25, 2025
So the US is preparing for mass extermination of Chinese civilians. That is they will not have to focus on well defended industries but just like the anglosaxons airforce did during WW2 they deliberately target primarily civilians.
Since the biowar arsenal has been building up they now have multiple options and they seem to be announcing what we must expect in the coming 20+ years war
https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-lede/whats-legally-allowed-in-war
Netanyahu said why cant we do what you did to the US
and seemed to go ahead with using Gaza people asembled by food transports for shooting practice
We also remember the observation that some Israeli opinions define the concerned civilians as animals
For those who know some fragments of history we recognise the phenomenon of depriving indigenous people of their livelihood.
AI assistant actually partly confirms it although it claims the bulk of the extermination was due to ordinary hunting for meat and for furs etc.
The following seems to me to confirm it was directed against the indians
“On a winter day in December 1867, a train took off from Fort Hays, Kansas. Rumbling across the prairie, it slowed as it neared a herd of bison. Then a hail of bullets exploded from the train windows, shattering the peace of the Great Plains and felling the beasts where they stood. That was just the beginning of the American bison extermination.”
“Killing bison to force Native Americans off the Plains was never explicit U.S. government policy. However, the government endorsed it.”
https://allthatsinteresting.com/american-bison-extinction-1800s

Posted by: petergrfstrm | Jul 27 2025 7:36 utc | 60

The Chinese living on Formosa look to The Ukrainian example and say – No Thanks we‘ll take peaceful cooperation
Posted by: Exile | Jul 27 2025 5:52 utc | 57

Thing is … the Ukraine was offered full independence with the only proviso that they remained neutral … and that is something Taiwan has never been granted.
Ukrainians decided that wasn’t good enough and preferred snuggling up to NATO and the EU. Well … everyone gets to make decisions in life, but that doesn’t make every decision a good one.

Posted by: Tel | Jul 27 2025 7:38 utc | 61

The DPP and their US backers massively over-reached here and blew their legitimacy. The DPP president is now a lame duck until 2028, as will be any hope for the separatists. Hopefully at the next election both the president and the parliamentary majority can be KMT and TPP. Then they can clean house of the DPP traitors and get on with realigning with the mainland only 90 miles away and telling Uncle Sam to piss off back across the Pacific.
Great news for anyone wanting peace, and for China’s careful long term strategy.

Posted by: Roger Boyd | Jul 27 2025 8:22 utc | 62

my work is based in both taiwan/china for the most part… and for a measly 15 years so I know everything ok?
if US couldn’t defeat russia on ukraine, how would US defeat china on an island? you know the first one to leave when it gets heavy would be felix.
the same thinking with islands goes with Japan/Philippines/ and even AUS. taiwan is just another japan. its turning gayer and less populated every year. this is the strategy of US on its colonies to mow their economies. look at japan/south korea/taiwan.:) taiwan was a nice place, in the 70’s to early 90’s.
now to cross the street, the television and the law will teach you how to…and by “reeducation” yet more accidents happen. less population? this is what happened to taiwan in the last 25 years, with these
“ideas”, they want the new home to be just like the old home, just because they can’t comprehend anything requiring logic? they had to try to make it california except like cali and detroit and las vegas? falling apart in the daytime, dangers at night..so don’t worry about it.
take care of your family. all this non sense is nothing if a blockade were placed on ROC, the oil drilling industry is non-existent. even TSMC would collapse within a month. we import over 80% of the food, the people are fat here now, and smart as fk now. yea that blockade could be useful for a diet.

Posted by: jason | Jul 27 2025 10:01 utc | 63

the Federal Gov‘t formally recognized Formosa as part of the PRC way back in 1972. ditto for the entire international community.
Thats a fact jack.

Posted by: Exile | Jul 27 2025 10:33 utc | 64

“the Federal Gov‘t formally recognized Formosa as part of the PRC way back in 1972. ”
@Exile | Jul 27 2025 10:33 utc | 64
That year Nixon also made a strange deal with the USSR in the form of the US/USSR Trade and Economic Council involving the fortune 500 including technological industries.
Even though publically available information about it may have beem absent before 1985.
Antony Sutton called it national suicide but he most probably didnt know it was a bribe for the Soviets to help kep the secret of the nonexisting US manned space program.
In 1957 something serious happened five days before Sputnik I and for some reason Castro’s rebels turned out to have more luck in 1958.
Since the CIA helped the Rebels according to three oathbound US ambassadors, and the last ambassador even wrote a book saying the CIA gave weapons to the rebels, we may conclude that something extraordinary was taking place.
It doesnt prove that it had something to do with the serious incident in the USSR in 1957. But since the above-mentioned deal from 1972 is now completely covered up by removing all previously available web-documents it seems natural to seek auxiliary explanations for the oddity with Castro’s rebels who never one a battle.
Castro really was a Hollywood B-actor having appeared in four movies and I suggest he simply played another role as the Cuban Dictator in the service of the angloamerican oligarchy.
The quote from Exile’s comment may be another example of the US buying silence even though I dont know how much China knew.
If the British were motivated by a wish to prevent the US from becoming too powerful they had all the means to leak info to China.
I suggest those wellknown British Spies were triple agents like Larouche has posited concerning Kim Philby.
They were working for the British empire all the time. And that empire did not want genuine US hegemony – only to the degree that the British Empire II in the form of the Off Shore Empire would keep its priviledged Trust regulations.
All three oddities and perhaps even the end to the Vietnam War and Nixon’s fall may have been consequences of Britains power of balance game to tweak down independent US power.

Posted by: petergrfstrm | Jul 27 2025 11:57 utc | 65

Wait a minute! What kind of democratic country would have its president call for the recall of opposition lawmakers?
Posted by: CIROC | Jul 26 2025 16:33 utc | 4
The right kind of democratic country.
Colour revolution incoming I’d say.

Posted by: jpc | Jul 27 2025 12:18 utc | 66

The USA will definitely want a friendly – if not puppet government/leader running Taiwan, to help antagonise Beijing, and the US MIC makes a pretty penny as well with a US friendly leader in charge, not to mention US warships can sail up and down Taiwan’s waters, also important, or very important is Taiwan’s Semi-Conductor industry – Europe and the US rely heavily on Taiwanese Semi-Conductors, and I recall either a US politician or military man – say that if Taiwan’s Semi-Conductor sector looked like it was falling into the hands of the Chinese, the USA would need to destroy it – by bombing the Semi-Conductor factories in Taiwan, I doubt that would go down well with the Taiwanese.

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Jul 27 2025 15:26 utc | 67

Adam Tooze does a little analysis of current apologies for the Zionist genocidal assault. https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-400-not-crisis-but-murder?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=192845&post_id=169347958&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=2rylou&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
For example, he notes:

If you have been in these conversations, you will have heard the retort: “Don’t criticize Israel, don’t even mention the criminal policy of its government, unless you are also willing to discuss horrors being inflicted elsewhere.”

As an exercise in honesty, he addresses this directly.

Being the result of deliberate policy by a powerful state, commonly regarded as belonging to the exclusive club of “advanced economies”, the mass starvation in Gaza in the summer of 2025 is quite unlike that anywhere else in the world.

This exceptional quality is further emphasized if we ask simply, what percentage of the Palestinian population in Gaza is affected…
In Nigeria – mainly in the North – it is one sixth of the population. In Myanmar and the DRC it is roughly a quarter of the population. In Yemen, Sudan, South Sudan and Haiti – the places most commonly cited in arguments about the application of “special standards” to Israel – the share of the population at risk is between 49 and 57 percent. In Gaza, the share is 100 percent. The risk of famine is total.

Posted by: steven t johnson | Jul 27 2025 16:30 utc | 68

If the worst happens…
J-50
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zx1H7Q1oY-c
“China’s sixth-generation fighter jet shaking the world.”

Posted by: JohnGilberts | Jul 27 2025 16:32 utc | 69

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Monday, May 21, 2001
U.S. policy toward Taiwan defies reason
By GREGORY CLARK
In 1938 Nazi Germany tried to mediate the war between Japan and China. At the time Japanese troops were advancing far into south China, massacring large numbers of Chinese at Nanjing and elsewhere and cruelly seeking to bomb the Nationalist government into submission. If German mediation had succeeded, the history of this part of the world would have been very different.
It failed. Tokyo said that Chinese armed resistance to Japan’s advance proved a lack of sincerity for genuine negotiations.
We see a milder version of the same distorted logic in U.S. attitudes toward China today. During the NATO attack on Yugoslavia, China’s embassy in Belgrade was hit with pinpoint precision by a U.S. bomb that somehow was able to penetrate an underground chamber where intelligence operations were located. Angry demonstrations against the U.S. Embassy in Beijing coupled with China’s refusal to believe the bombing was accidental were then turned round by some in the U.S. to prove that China lacked sincerity, that it was inherently hostile to America.
Similarly with the recent U.S. military plane brought down in Hainan in March. The U.S. justifies its military flights along the Chinese coast as needed for surveillance. But the U.S. can do any surveillance it wants much more efficiently with satellites. In reality, the flights with their banks of computers and decoders are almost certainly a continuation of the sigint (signals intelligence) and elint (electronic intelligence) activities conducted with such vigor against the Soviet Union during the Cold War.
Sending planes and ships close to or into the air and sea space of the other side can trigger a variety of urgent military responses, all of which provide useful intelligence in preparing for any future attack on the other side. For the U.S. to insist that Beijing’s hostility to such flights proves a basic hostility to the U.S. is rather ingenuous, to say the least. One wonders how the U.S. would respond to similar flights by China along the U.S. coastline.
Yet Beijing’s anger over the spy-plane affair is now being used by U.S. hawks to justify a range of tougher measures against China, including beefed up military pressure against China.
The hawks would argue that the U.S. hard line against China is needed to defend Taiwan from Beijing’s threats. But that, too, is rather ingenuous. Beijing says it will only use force against Taiwan if Taipei seeks independence. U.S. military and other moves to show support for Taiwan encourage those in Taiwan who seek independence. That seems a strange way to help defend Taiwan.
In the past the U.S. has acknowledged formally that there is only one China and that includes Taiwan. So in principle it, too, opposes Taiwan independence. In the past it has also acknowledged that a civil-war situation exists between China and Taiwan. Today it says any use or threat of force against Taiwan is intolerable, that any reunification has to be peaceful. But if a civil-war situation exists, then the use of force by either side is justified, as the U.S. also acknowledged when in the past it assisted Taiwan’s efforts to launch sabotage and commando raids into China.
In 1961 I sat with an Australian delegation on top of a west Taiwanese coastline cliff, along side former Taiwan President Chiang Kai Shek and other top military brass, watching frogmen and fully-armed troops with 40-kg packs swim ashore in a bid to convince us that the invasion of the Chinese mainland could not be far away. That hardly smacked of peaceful reunification.
If anything China deserves praise rather than brickbats for its willingness to wait patiently over half a century for an end to its civil war.
Coupled with all this is the never-ending distortion of Beijing’s domestic policies and behavior — over Tibet, the Tiananmen incident, so-called human rights problems, dissidents, religious cults, frontier disputes and so on — to create the image of a totalitarian monster that deserves to be confronted where ever possible.
The tribal “my use of force is right and yours is wrong” syndrome can be found in conflicts extending all the way from Northern Island and Israel to the Middle East and Kashmir. But today’s China is too big and important to be subject to the same kind of primitive logic.
Gregory Clark is president of Tama University.

Posted by: denk | Jul 27 2025 18:54 utc | 70

I wouldn’t get too excited about Taiwan politics. The Chicoms spend the same kind of cash buying that off as they spend on US politics and elsewhere. And it works, in both cases, at least passively.
The Chicoms just have to wait. They have rivals to organize against, and they’ve learned that hot wars are not their thing. Patience is their watchword. Move too fast, and the carefully crafted but fragile import/export economy can be at risk. Move patiently, and they can stand by the stream and wait for their lifeless rivals to float by them.

Posted by: seer | Jul 27 2025 21:03 utc | 71

Re Zhong Guo politics, Pu Jie, bro of Pu Yi, last emperor, used to stamp foreigners’ passports with his personal seal, and say “hang on to this! You never know what will happen in China!”

Posted by: lester | Jul 27 2025 22:51 utc | 72

Re Taiwan vs mainland, “The empire, long divided, must unite; long united, must divide. Thus it has ever been” — opening lines, ROMANCE OF THE THREE KINGDOMS

Posted by: lester | Jul 27 2025 23:00 utc | 73

I do not want to sound pessimistic, but I have some sense of how things might go in Taiwan in the near future, based on European experience, where we have a tradition of repeating elections or referendums until the exhausted, resigned public gives in and votes as those in power wish. The Romanian and Moldovan elections and the various referendums on adopting the Maastricht Treaty and other EU treaties should give an idea of how events could unfold.

Posted by: Mauro Rossini | Jul 29 2025 8:47 utc | 74