Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
June 29, 2025
Ukraine Open Thread 2025-144

News & views related to the war in Ukraine …

Comments

Ukraine Kills Donetsk Woman With British Storm Shadow Missiles (& vid)
https://x.com/RT_com/status/1939771363784331460
“Civilian building in Donetsk destroyed in strike – RIA footage…”
Storm Shadow missiles cannot be operated without British technical assistance. Time for a UK visit by Mr Oreshnik?

Posted by: JohnGilberts | Jul 1 2025 15:07 utc | 201

found this, crudely translated, with regard to the recent azeri lunacy:

If you look at Azerbaijan nonsense towards Russia from another angle, it turns out that refineries in Kremenčug and Drogovarč, which recently stopped existing, worked exclusively at Azerbaijan Oil. The Ali’s family and companies near them transported Azerbaijani light oil in Ukraine.
Refinery in Kremenčugu, which has processed up to 3 million tons of oil per year before the conflict, is now effective outside the use. The Drogobeč factory also left the conversation.
Ali’s never could agree with Russia on this issue. Deliveries are suspended, and the quantities already arrived on processing are frozen. Only the refineries, but also terminal stations for oil loading in the ports of Odessa, have been imported through which, under the control of Socar, to Ukraine, up to 1.5 million tons of Azerbaijan oil.

Posted by: Justpassinby | Jul 1 2025 15:09 utc | 202

from June 25, 2025
The Russian Aerospace Forces received the third batch of Su-35S fighters in 2025

the Russian Aerospace Forces have received the third batch of Su-35S fighters manufactured by the Komsomolsk-on-Amur Aviation Plant named after Yuri Gagarin (KnaAZ) of the United Aircraft Corporation in 2025. According to available data, this batch consists of three aircraft. On the transfer of the first batch of Su-35S fighters to the Russian Aerospace Forces in 2025, the UAC reported on March 29, 2025, and the second batch reported on May 12. As usual, the UAC’s reports since 2022 have not disclosed the number of aircraft delivered, and the fighter’s tail numbers have been retouched in official photos and videos.
Earlier in 2024, KnaAZ delivered four batches of Su-35S fighters to the Russian Ministry of Defense, with a total estimated number of 15 aircraft.

Posted by: ghiwen | Jul 1 2025 15:21 utc | 203

@ Justpassinby, §203:
Erdoğan is plotting a takeover of Azerbaijan (Turkish-speaking) and Russia´s reward for letting him will be the small, northernmost Lezgian-speaking slice (Xizi & Quba) of Azerbaijan.
America will be happy to encourage it because, to do this, Erdoğan would have to seize the intervening Turkish-speaking province of Tabriz from . . . Iran.
Erdoğan would bask in ruling all Turks from the Aegean to the Caspian.
Israel would be happy too . . .

Posted by: John Marks | Jul 1 2025 15:25 utc | 204

@205,
Not entirely true. They are building shelters but not fast enough for all of their existing planes. Which is still bad because it means that either they have some incompetent people somewhere along their chain of command or basically corrupt regional leaders who take the money but drag the process too much.

Posted by: JamesBond | Jul 1 2025 15:44 utc | 205

Corruption is the reason why Russia will only annex the Donbas, the first few months of territory advance was very important, and russian flaws is responsible for Russia not being on the doorsteps of Kiev rn.

Posted by: Digo | Jul 1 2025 15:58 utc | 206

👏👏👏LUHANSK LIBERATED from the Kiev TURDS👏👏👏👏

Posted by: HERMIUS | Jul 1 2025 16:11 utc | 207

👏👏👏LUHANSK LIBERATED from the Kiev TURDS👏👏👏👏
Posted by: HERMIUS | Jul 1 2025 16:11 utc | 210
Yes, yes, yes! Well done vlad putin………donetsk next….no wonder the “turds” attacked lugansk city yesterday

Posted by: Ted from Liverpool | Jul 1 2025 16:17 utc | 208

“Russian military is retarded. 4 years into a war they still can not build shelters for their airplanes.”
Posted by: Neo | Jul 1 2025 15:25 utc | 205
You aren’t very well informed-Russia nor the USA cannot hide their strategic bombers-ie nuclear capable planes (1)
1. “Under the New START treaty, Russia and the United States are required to be transparent about their strategic bombers, meaning they cannot be hidden from satellite surveillance. This treaty, which focuses on limiting strategic offensive arms, includes provisions for data exchanges and on-site inspections to ensure compliance. ”

Posted by: canuk | Jul 1 2025 16:43 utc | 209

Corruption is the reason why Russia will only annex the Donbas, the first few months of territory advance was very important, and russian flaws is responsible for Russia not being on the doorsteps of Kiev rn.
Posted by: Digo | Jul 1 2025 15:58 utc | 208
ahh, i see someone read todays Washington Times Article, and decided to regurgitate it here.

Posted by: UWDude | Jul 1 2025 17:10 utc | 210

Seem to be more trolls than contributors atm.
Serhiy Zakharevych, commander of the Ukrainian 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade, died at the front. His wife and Brigadier General Serhiy Sobko confirmed his death.
https://unn.ua/en/news/commander-of-the-110th-brigade-serhiy-zakharevych-died-at-the-front

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Jul 1 2025 18:01 utc | 211

“In June, the enemy occupied 556 square km of Ukrainian territory, which is the worst indicator in 2025”
https://t.me/DeepStateUA/22101
For comparison, in May, the Russian Armed Forces took 449 square kilometers.

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Jul 1 2025 18:14 utc | 212

Washington Times reports Russia could win, but is corrupt.
Talking point received and relayed by by two minions here today, so far. I am guessing for the next few days we are going to hear about “corruption” being the reason for Russia’s “failures”, until a new talking point memo is released to NAFO et al.

Posted by: UWDude | Jul 1 2025 18:24 utc | 213

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Jul 1 2025 18:14 utc | 216
thanks. i refuse to visit their site, as it spams hundreds of addresses in my history, i am guessing each section of map gets a new web address.

Posted by: UWDude | Jul 1 2025 18:26 utc | 214

Southfront reports Azerbaijan is playing with fire, stirring up trouble in Russia.
Russia and Turkey will do a deal, carving up Azerbaijan.
Turkey will take over Azerbaijan by annexing the Turkish-speaking Tabriz province of Iran.
So they´ll obviously get the okay from America – and Israel.
And Erdoğan will get to rule all the Turks from the Aegean to the Caspian – plus Baku´s oil.
Russia will get the thin sliver north of the Caucasus (Xizi & Quba districts which are Lezgian-speaking) to join the Russian republic of Lezgia/Dagestan, securing the Russian border along the Caucasus watershed. They´ll make it a condition that Erdoğan takes back any Azeri (Turkish) criminals deported from Russia.
It´s a win for America, Israel, Russia and, most of all, Turkey. It´s a big loss for Iran.
And troublesome Azerbaijan vanishes from the map to become a province of Turkey.

Posted by: John Marks | Jul 1 2025 18:41 utc | 215

Posted by: Science Fan | Jul 1 2025 16:59 utc | 213
Name one operational success the Ukrainian ground forces have achieved in the last year, make that 2 years. As for the Su-34’s, there’s a net gain as new batches are being delivered, it’s called attrition, it happens in war, Russia will have calculated for it.
Talking of attrition, the Russian tactic only fails if the Ukrainian’s can inflict a casualty rate on the Russians that exceeds their replacement rate, which they have failed to do, despite the propaganda. Again, warfare 101.

Posted by: Milites | Jul 1 2025 21:07 utc | 216

Posted by: John Marks | Jul 1 2025 18:41 utc | 219
######
Southfront said all of that?
Any citation?

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jul 1 2025 21:25 utc | 217

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jul 1 2025 21:25 utc | 221
Southfront has many contributors who post articles, some of them more authoritative than others. I doubt it was an article from the actual Southfront team. Their articles are more dry and contemporary or historical, rarely do they make such wild prognostications, or use massive amounts of invectives, like some of the contributors.

Posted by: UWDude | Jul 1 2025 22:47 utc | 218

Posted by: Milites | Jul 1 2025 21:07 utc | 220
I’d say Sudza was. I think it stopped a Russian Sumy offensive.
But it also ended up being a defeat later.
But that’s it. Compared to Russias Sudza recapture, Avdeevka, karakhovka, and hundreds of towns and villages.

Posted by: UWDude | Jul 1 2025 22:51 utc | 219

Fuck me!
DS gave ALMOST 60 KM2 (58.8 for picky guys)
On a regular 1.365 casualties day to boost!
And
THE LUGANSK PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC HAS BEEN LIBERATED FROM THE NAZI TROOPS OF THE ARMED FORCES OF UKRAINE
https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/the-lugansk-peoples-republic-has
Now write down what I say. Before the year is over same will be said of Donetsk.

Posted by: Newbie | Jul 2 2025 0:07 utc | 220

Talking of attrition, the Russian tactic only fails if the Ukrainian’s can inflict a casualty rate on the Russians that exceeds their replacement rate, which they have failed to do, despite the propaganda. Again, warfare 101.
Posted by: Milites | Jul 1 2025 21:07 utc | 220
And now weapons are dialed down, men are scarce. AFU is fucked
I’m waiting for kamianske and the drive north by E105
After most of AFU is stuck in east bank and no way home…

Posted by: Newbie | Jul 2 2025 0:11 utc | 221

When I see most Gerans rerouted from strategic targets to immediate front support is when I believe in a real breakthrough attempt. With a night of 400 you could make quite a hole in an 40km front sector to punch through. All those patrolling drones will have a hard time when the control points are routed.

Posted by: SOS | Jul 2 2025 9:57 utc | 222

When I see most Gerans rerouted from strategic targets to immediate front support is when I believe in a real breakthrough attempt. With a night of 400 you could make quite a hole in an 40km front sector to punch through. All those patrolling drones will have a hard time when the control points are routed.
Posted by: SOS | Jul 2 2025 9:57 utc | 222
Just seen such news! video in link
“Geran” on the Front Line📝
New tactics for using strike UAVs
Another video has appeared online showing the combat use of the “Geran-2” UAV to strike a temporary deployment point of the AFU in Raisky.
The drone hit the target at a relatively short distance from the front line, which was an atypical scenario for this type of UAV before.
🖍Until recently, “Geranes” were mainly used to strike rear targets of the AFU – logistics, air defense, and warehouses. However, now they are increasingly being used at the tactical level. The likely reason is the increase in production volumes, which allows partially redistributing these resources to tasks of direct support of the front.
🚩The choice of “Geranes” is explained: the drone carries a powerful warhead capable of effectively destroying weakly fortified strongholds and ground targets of the enemy. The drone can perform the function of a “dismantler” of field fortifications, especially relevant in areas where the use of the Aerospace Forces and army aviation is difficult, and light UAVs do not provide the necessary striking power.
🏳️An additional factor of efficiency is the weakness of the enemy’s system to counter such drones directly on the line of contact. In contrast to the deeply echeloned air defense in the rear, the front-line objects of the AFU remain vulnerable to such raids.
❗️It is obvious that this trend will continue. As production grows, Russian industry will be able not only to increase quantitative indicators, but also to expand the range of “Geranes” – from strike UAVs with an increased warhead to specialized reconnaissance drones.
#UAV #Russia #Ukraine
⭐️ @rybar
https://t.me/rybar/71851

Posted by: Newbie | Jul 2 2025 11:19 utc | 223

the Russian tactic only fails if the Ukrainian’s can inflict a casualty rate on the Russians that exceeds their replacement rate
Posted by: Milites | Jul 1 2025 21:07 utc | 220
How can Ukr inflict a casualty rate that can’t be replaced by Russia? It’s impossible even if the Macaron gives them a few nukes. That was not the goal of what started with Maidan. The goal was to enable conditions to attack any target they wanted, put as many sanctions as they wanted, do anything they want without any dangers for themselves, using the zombie kamikaze proxy. Before that you had to be crazy to say Nato will strike Russian nuclear carriers, npps, beaches, generals and so on and Russia will watch it like a movie. Now it’s the new normal.

Posted by: rk | Jul 2 2025 14:40 utc | 224

Russian Ally Names ‘First Step’ Towards Ukraine Ceasefire
https://www.rt.com/russia/620870-lukashenko-strikes-russia-kellogg/
“Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko says the US could order Zelensky to suspend strikes if it truly seeks to end the conflict.
‘Let them tell their client Zelensky to stop strikes against Russia. Then we could agree,’ Lukashenko stressed.
Kellogg later said on X that ‘at no point did I make comments related to Ukraine’s prosecution of the war outside of a total ceasefire.'”
Which probably means he did.

Posted by: JohnGilberts | Jul 2 2025 16:45 utc | 225

Interesting. Sweden intends to confiscate AR15s from hunters for shipment to UKR.
https://en.topwar.ru/267366-vlasti-shvecii-namereny-konfiskovat-u-ohotnikov-vintovki-ar-15-chtoby-otpravit-ih-na-ukrainu.html

Posted by: UBAH | Jul 2 2025 17:19 utc | 226

Posted by: SOS | Jul 2 2025 9:57 utc | 222
Same as the tank plinking F-111’s in DS, when they’d run out of traditional targets. It might be less of a sign that they are supporting an up and coming offensive and more a case of paucity of targets, or as Newbie says increased production translating to increased scope and scale of targeting.
Other interesting points missed by many, re the poor veteran Swedish AFV, being hunted down by drones.
1. The drones use HE not HEAT or DP, suggesting the relative scarcity of armoured targets, whereas UA drones use chemical, suggesting an abundance of AFV targets. OG drones predominantly Chemical warhead.
2. Hard for FPV drones to get a M-kill by targeting tracks, seemed to try to damage engine instead by shallow dives. OG drones often go for the former kill.
3. Seemingly no coordination between drones, (drones swoops in for kill, only for target to be killed by another) suggesting separate operators converged on a target the way FB’s in ETO pounced on any moving target. Again suggesting limited UA vehicle pool, or few moving.

Posted by: Milites | Jul 2 2025 17:51 utc | 227

Some big bada-boom in Zhytomyr; video clips here, in one clip the shockwave cracks a truck windscreen: https://news-pravda.com/world/2025/07/02/1486176.html
More clips here: https://news-pravda.com/world/2025/07/02/1486178.html
Something big has clearly gone pop, causing secondary damage and fires; initial reports suggested it was an oil terminal associated with links to an Azerbaijan oil export outfit – this remains to be confirmed.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jul 2 2025 17:55 utc | 228

Posted by: rk | Jul 2 2025 14:40 utc | 224
They’ve done all that, now what? Remember Patton’s axiom about ‘dying for one’s country’. If you are not killing them quicker than they can be effectively replaced you can bugger about on the periphery as much as you like. As they say, ‘if you don’t have a chance to take home the trophy, why the fuck are you on the field?’

Posted by: Milites | Jul 2 2025 17:57 utc | 229

More: https://regionews.ua/ukr/news/zhitomirshchina/1751476932-zhahliva-tragediya-na-trasi-kiyiv-zhitomir-zgoriv-avtobus-desyatki-avto-e-zagibli-ta-bagato-poranenih (via translation add-on.)

Near Zhytomyr, an explosion occurred in a warehouse, which caused a fire, burned down a bus and dozens of cars, there are dead and many injured
This is reported by local media, reports RegioNews .
Near Zhytomyr, a large-scale tragedy occurred on the Kiev-Zhytomyr highway due to an explosion in the warehouse of an industrial enterprise. As a result of the incident, a passenger bus and several dozen cars burned down. According to local media and authorities, there are many injured and dead.
About 25 ambulances quickly left for the scene. Rescuers report a critical condition of the victims. The fire caused significant destruction not only in the warehouse area, but also damaged residential and non-residential buildings nearby.
Witnesses describe the situation as a real hell – strong fires engulfed the highway, people with injuries are trying to help each other. Traffic in the direction of Kiev is temporarily stopped to ensure safety and allow rescuers to work.
Units of emergency services continue to eliminate the consequences of the tragedy. The circumstances of the explosion and the full extent of the damage are being determined. Local authorities urge citizens to remain calm and avoid the area of the accident.
In addition, residents of Zhytomyr region are advised to close their windows tightly and stay at home if possible. This recommendation was provided by the regional military administration.
Earlier it was reported that in Zhytomyr there was an explosion at a gas station: two powerful explosions were heard.

Several outlets report there was no air-raid alert in progress at the time.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jul 2 2025 18:15 utc | 230

Holy, the number of Russians thrown into the meat grinder is off the scale, barely any movement on the front but keep feeding Russian people into it like no tomorrow. Will be interesting to see how many Russian lives they wasted for this war to gain nothing and destroy their whole country.

Posted by: Smoky Mo | Jul 2 2025 22:10 utc | 231

Low day 1.235 casualties, DS saying 11.3 km2
S with a new update
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/major-setback-for-ukraine-as-us-cuts
A bit about us cancelling arms but also poor production
advances and encirclement details also

Posted by: Newbie | Jul 2 2025 23:23 utc | 232

Posted by: Smoky Mo | Jul 2 2025 22:10 utc | 231
I think you’re just suffered a bought of transposition there, quite an acute case actually, so best wishes on your speedy recovery. If it helps at a quick reminder, the people whose frontlines are receding are normally the ones losing, the ones whose lines are advancing are normally the ones winning. There are other indicators but transposition syndrome does affect cognition, so I’ll limit myself to just that one.

Posted by: Milites | Jul 2 2025 23:34 utc | 233

Posted by: Smoky Mo | Jul 2 2025 22:10 utc | 231
The Trump DOD is not the Biden DOD, so it will be interesting to see what happens. I also don’t think Simplicius should engage in too much self-back slapping, as every metric of the former administration was a lie.

Posted by: Milites | Jul 2 2025 23:43 utc | 234

Posted by: Milites | Jul 2 2025 23:34 utc | 233
Repeat after me and finish the sentence …
Don’t feed the ______________
Seriously? DS, who always shortchanges, gave more than 70 km2 for these last two days and you lose time aswering a prick saying “barely any movement “?
For something serious, will kamianske (this time) lead to a drive north by E105 ?

Posted by: Newbie | Jul 2 2025 23:47 utc | 235

Posted by: Newbie | Jul 2 2025 23:47 utc | 235
I prefer the term designating, not answering!
As for future movements, I’ve always said watch the K’s, especially the silent ones.

Posted by: Milites | Jul 3 2025 0:14 utc | 236