My takeaway from this thread: NATO wants Russia to do a crazy all out bloodbath assault on Odessa. Odds of this actually happening? About zero.
Posted by: Moonraker | Jun 27 2025 16:07 utc | 101
Why does NATO want this?
Look at it another way…at the moment, the Ukrainian armed forces are being stretched out endlessly, spread over almost 1,200 km.
However, Ukraine absolutely must maintain certain reserves in certain locations, e.g., around Odessa or Belarus, because a new front could open up there at any time, or even an offensive on Odessa. If no forces are there to counter it from the start, everything would be lost before reinforcements arrived, and all routes to the attack zones would probably be impassable for Ukrainian forces.
What I mean is, if credible rumors are spread about a Russian attack, the forces will be left where they are, around and in Odessa, for example, and not relocated to the front sectors that might then collapse. War tactics based on the motto “Believe or disbelieve what the enemy is planning.” Odessa is particularly well-suited for this, because, as everyone here has noted, Odessa is not only important for Kyiv for Sylenki, NO, because THE WEST would cry out if the plan worked and Odessa fell under Russian control.
THAT, IN TURN, would be the end of the war without Ukraine having to surrender; the symbolism would be overwhelming worldwide, not to mention the loss of the best supply routes.
For this reason, a rumor is enough; it just has to be and remain credible. The Russians are less than 60 km from Odessa as the crow flies… ergo, they could have bombed the city long ago without risking jets. This is more likely about increasing the “possibility” of an attack so that Sylenki doesn’t dare withdraw his reserves… if things go wrong, it will be THE END in the eyes of his backers in Western Europe, and if he withdraws from there, the probability of an attack is actually very high. No matter what Sylenski does, it could be his end…the only question is where and from which direction death will come.

Posted by: Nemessis | Jun 27 2025 16:42 utc | 103

Posted by: Jams O’Donnell | Jun 27 2025 14:42 utc | 96
The “right of reply” isn’t about comments but about the accused’s right to address the accusations, preferrably at the end of the article where the accusations occur, or another place but simultaneously.
So if they followed the current rules of the journalistic game, the Guardian would ask e.g. the Russian embassy to explain. Which they would no doubt have done had they been asked.
Far from the Guardian to do such a thing, even though it’s actually the MSM that have driven those (rather new) rules about “right of reply” through.

Posted by: Avtonom | Jun 27 2025 17:40 utc | 105

*** If the public is being told that Russia is expected to launch an attack by 2030, then why is the European Union only aiming to be fully prepared by 2035? It doesn’t make much sense”
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Jun 27 2025 18:21 utc | 106
So they can come back later but before 2035 and say there is emergency danger and we need more.

Posted by: frithguild | Jun 27 2025 18:32 utc | 107

Posted by: R3 N1 C | Jun 27 2025 18:42 utc | 108
But they’re not, just using a second/third part source, otherwise no one would know.

Posted by: Milites | Jun 27 2025 18:47 utc | 109

Ukrainian losses for the week June 21st to June 27th, as reported by the Russian defence ministry:
– Kursk & Kharkov fronts: 1,355 troops, 16 LAV/HMV, 45 motor vehicles, 39 artillery pieces, 2 EW systems.
– Zapad Group (Luhansk area): 1,410 troops, 2 tanks, 1 APC, 7 LAV/HMV, 68 motor vehicles, 8 artillery pieces, 17 EW and CB systems.
– Yug Group (Donetsk north): 1,190 troops, 1 tank, 1 APC, 4 LAV/HMV, 26 motor vehicles, 15 artillery pieces, 4 EW and Counter-Battery systems.
– Tsetr Group (Donetsk south): 3,295 troops, 1 tank, 2 IFV, 4 APC, 23 LAV/ HMV, 42 motor vehicles, 23 artillery pieces.
– Vostok Group (southern front): 1,360 troops, 2 tanks, 12 LAV/HMV, 38 motor vehicles, 15 artillery piece, 3 EW ad CB systems.
– Dnepr Group: 520 troops, 1 LAV/HMV, 58 motor vehicles, 8 artillery pieces, 23 EW and CB systems.
In total: 9,130 troops – a slight drop from the previous week (39,564 per month, with undercounting probably around 45,000).
6 tanks (0 in Kursk/Kharkov), 2 IFV, 6 APC, 63 HMV/Light Armoured Vehicle (16 in Kursk/Khakrov), 277 motor vehicles. A small increase in tank losses and all of 2 IFVs and 6 death-trap APCs. Notably yet another fall in the HMV/LAVs losses. Could the Ukrainian forces be running short of even light armoured vehicles? Only a small increase from the much lowered level of even motor vehicles the previous week..
Increase to 108 artillery pieces (39 in Kursk/Kharkov), plus also 0 MLRS. Up somewhat to a rate of 468/mth; still less than half of the peak loss rate. Looks like Ukrainian artillery may have been depleted to a relatively low level, the Russian advantage here will have been multiplied.
Plus 49 EW and Counter Battery systems, the Russians are having a lot of success wiping out the Ukrainian EW and CB capabilities.
The shortage of armoured vehicles, even light armoured vehicles seems to have been intensified. Along with a lack of artillery. A casualty rate of only 9,130 during intense fighting may also conform the reports of a lack of Ukrainian troops.

Posted by: Roger Boyd | Jun 27 2025 18:57 utc | 111

Something not discussed very much in recent times is the natural gas situation:

Billions of dollars lost: Ukraine loses half of gas production-Nagornyak
From December to March, Ukraine lost half of its gas production capacity due to Russian strikes, and now it has to import up to 5.5 billion cubic meters. This was stated on the air of the TV channel “Novini Live” by People’s Deputy of the Verkhovna Rada Sergey Nagornyak.
“One of the theses was voiced that the country’s own gas production, despite the active Russian attacks that took place from December to March of this year on the gas infrastructure, is under control. The issue is far from under control, because we have lost half of our gas production. It is important to tell people the truth about why we are importing gas now, ” said Nagornyak, quoted by RIA Novosti.
According to him, the state-owned Ukrgasvydobuvannya and a number of private companies were also affected. Restoration, in his opinion, will take several years and will cost billions of dollars.
Ukraine did not buy gas last summer at $ 300 per thousand cubic meters, because there was no urgent need for it. In addition, Naftogaz did not have additional funds, and now the situation has become more complicated, Nagornyak said. He said that he could not name the amount of losses, since “even Naftogaz simply does not have it,” but we are talking about billions of dollars, since” not only some wells or ground equipment were lost, gas treatment equipment and some gas pumping stations were also lost.”
“Naftogaz will now import gas from the EU at an average price of about 18-20 hryvnias per cubic meter of gas. And this gas will be sold to the public for teplokommunenergo at UAH 8 per cubic meter of gas. In fact, Naftogaz will lose more than 8 or 10 hryvnias per cubic meter of gas per cubic meter. “Naftogaz does not earn money on this,” the deputy added.

https://eadaily.com/ru/news/2025/06/27/poteryany-milliardy-dollarov-ukraina-lishilas-poloviny-dobychi-gaza-nagornyak (via translatin add-on.)
If Ukraine is now a net importer that is more upward pressure on European prices, with obvious knock-on consequences for consumers and commercial users alike.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jun 27 2025 19:33 utc | 113

Posted by: rk | Jun 27 2025 5:22 utc | 66
It is not the first that you show that you know nothing and that you want to teach others.
Your comments could be written by the ukronazis, there would be no difference.

Posted by: Naive | Jun 27 2025 20:50 utc | 115

Posted by: Roger Boyd | 112
I don’t think NATO has so much more artillery to send, they went from tracked to drawn and dug up what they could.
It has been a while since I saw total cost calculations or statements of losses vs production. Neither did I see counts of F16, Abrams, Himars or total billions spent so far.
Guess the war is going great

Posted by: SOS | Jun 27 2025 21:38 utc | 117

From a couple of different reports: Reports of British, French , Polish and Australian military have moved into Odessa.
Is this confirmed?

Posted by: DM: | Jun 27 2025 22:54 utc | 119

From a couple of different reports: Reports of British, French , Polish and Australian military have moved into Odessa.
Is this confirmed?
Posted by: DM: | Jun 27 2025 22:54 utc | 120
Sounds like there is a need for Special Investigator Iskander.

Posted by: frithguild | Jun 28 2025 0:27 utc | 121

I think it is now time to safely conflate …
… The European Union with the North Atlantic Trump Organisation …
It is like a bad dream … but it is not a dream … it is present reality.

Posted by: Don Firineach | Jun 28 2025 1:04 utc | 123

Zelensky wore a suit to the NATO summit.

Posted by: UWDude | Jun 28 2025 2:46 utc | 125

The Ukrainian army is rapidly becoming an infantry force with “technicals” (SUVs with heavy guns on the back) and drones as their two main weapons. If the Russians can interdict the drones this will turn into a rout, that’s the only thing stopping faster advances. I see that the Russian military is expending resources hunting down the drone operators.
Posted by: Roger Boyd | Jun 27 2025 22:21 utc | 119
All through the smo we saw Russia coming up with counter measures to nato technology. The moment Russians come up with counter drone tech, it is all over.
Chinese could be very involved.

Posted by: Michael J | Jun 28 2025 3:32 utc | 127

Posted by: too scents | Jun 27 2025 11:08 utc | 81

wouldn’t there still be land connections to NATO/EU like railroad/highway ???
Posted by: ghiwen | Jun 27 2025 11:04 utc | 80
—
Nothing like the Danube watershed. Consult a map.
Odessa is Romania’s Northern flank.

yeah … consult a map
I admit that waterways are also used; even air transport would be possible — AFTER the smo 🙂
I am not aware that Rzeszow or the Carpathian tunnel (often discussed here on moa) are on the Black Sea or the Danube
other discussions that are about :
– farmers escalate their protest against EU farm imports and environmental policies with border blockades
– Polish truck drivers’ border blockade causes ripple effects on the battlefield in Ukraine
– Romanian farmers block border crossing with Ukraine
a weighting of the 3 variants is not possible without knowing the respective delivery volume on the individual routes
at least I do not know this data and therefore refrain from an evaluation !

Posted by: ghiwen | Jun 28 2025 5:46 utc | 129

@Roger Boyd | Fri, 27 Jun 2025 18:57:00 GMT | 112

The shortage of armoured vehicles, even light armoured vehicles seems to have been intensified. Along with a lack of artillery. A casualty rate of only 9,130 during intense fighting may also conform the reports of a lack of Ukrainian troops.

Good info and insights, thank you. This war has been put on the backburner of late, but good to see these numbers.

Posted by: James M. | Jun 28 2025 7:15 utc | 131

In the midst of the NATO debate about spending 5% of GDP on defense, Putin states Russis is spending 6.3%. Would this be an intent to incite NATO to overspend?

Posted by: Passerby | Jun 28 2025 9:00 utc | 133

I hope no one in Germany has forgotten this?! Putin, Russia
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ReCRettpTd8
15 mins of President Putin – very instructive

Posted by: Don Firineach | Jun 28 2025 9:34 utc | 135

Yes, and no. The WW1 analogy still stands, the big change came when the scouts were able to fully transition into fighters who could interrupt enemy operations, both in the air and on the ground. The 60 tonne behemoth is still a lethal platform if the drone can be intercepted by its own drone support. That’s what I meant by tiers, and the replication of existing tactics, the next stage before autonomy, and I agree completely about the impact it will have, is to have drone pilots, designated as attack or escort, going up against defending drones, who are specifically tasked to protect individual machines or small tactical formations. Perhaps a better visualisation is to see the future in terms of opposed carrier warfare, where the vessels represent the AFV’s, and the drones the respective carrier wings.
As for IFF, it was calculated that the Blue-on-Blue percentage in a CW gone-hot scenario would be as high as 30%, rising after 48-72 hours, I foresee the same rates for this micro-combat, as initially it will be integral to the design spec the same way Soviet CW designed tanks were expected to last 11 minutes in combat. Frontline 3D printing of bespoke units, as practiced by the RN over a decade ago, will further reduce the impact of this friendly attrition. As for spoofing and decoys, again naval warfare gives an indicator, with it being factored into any predicted costs and/or impact on operational outcomes. As with anything, the side that trains and masters this side will have a definite advantage.
It’s a fascinating topic and raised a host of linked issues, with traditional determinations of aerial supremacy or concepts of suppression now having to include new categories. For example, up until recently., although the Ukrainian’s never achieved air-superiority they did often have drone superiority or perhaps ultra-low level ULL superiority.

Posted by: Milites | Jun 28 2025 10:48 utc | 137

@Milites | Sat, 28 Jun 2025 10:48:00 GMT | 139

It’s a fascinating topic and raised a host of linked issues, with traditional determinations of aerial supremacy or concepts of suppression now having to include new categories.

Yes, and let me suggest thinking these “categories” as distinct from traditional notions of distance, both horizontal (territory) and vertical. Starting from there, I see two questions arise: 1, is there a unified ‘metrical’ space which encompasses the categories, and 2, how do manned tactical operations shape this kind of battlefield?
As for 1, this might be networked ISR space. About 2 I don’t know; however it is still evident that camouflage and deception will be of great importance. As a corollary, getting human operators out of the physical battle zone would be, by and large, a coming trend. That in itself has consequences: the OODA loop is becoming more technological on the tactical level, while on the strategical (human) level the new “categories” allow to mess with one’s decisionmaking on a much finer grained level (territorially speaking) – like the drone assassinations we just saw.
As an aside, forget about AI doing strategy. There’s just no way. It can support informed deliberations by compiling lists (which need to be double-checked for consistency), but that’s about it. AI works by the rules, and it will get you into trouble.

Posted by: persiflo | Jun 28 2025 12:03 utc | 139

ghiwen 80 – I was referring to sealanes of commerce……….on what planet do you live?

Posted by: tobias cole | Jun 28 2025 13:09 utc | 141

🇩🇪🤡”We are not taking a submissive stance”: Merz compared Russia to Hitler’s Germany.
“After Scholz’s last conversation with Putin, the bombing of a children’s hospital began. If that is the result of such calls, I would refrain for now,” he said. “Let’s see what happens in the coming days. In any case, US support for Ukraine remains — and that is already important.”
Merz warned against underestimating the threat posed by Russia, including to Germany. “There is still a strong fear of war among part of the population. I do not share it, but I understand it. In principle, the desire for peace is the right goal. But a sober assessment is also needed — especially when it comes to Russia’s imperialist ambitions.”
He recalled the policy of appeasement on the eve of World War II, which only encouraged Nazi Germany’s aggression. “We must not repeat this mistake,” Merz emphasized.

a nazi with a nazi apparatchik calling someone else a nazi. projection at its finest.
“bombing of childrens hospitals”. there it is again. repeat the propaganda to make it stick like shit on a wall!
yes, we, the german population, do fear war. many of us see what is happening worldwide, and you know what adolf merz? we dont want to have bombs and missiles hitting our homes and killing our children. thats the thing that YOU DO NOT UNDERSTAND. all you care about is cheques from blackrock and snorting cocaine on a train with your gay buddy keir starmer, that ukrainian buttboi lover.
go pick up a gun and fight for your precious ukraine at the frontlines. at least then nobody has to listen to this bullshit anymore.

Posted by: Justpassinby | Jun 28 2025 13:24 utc | 143

https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/advancing-russian-forces-large-lithium-deposits-ukraine
“Russian Army units have captured one of the largest lithium deposits in Europe near the village of Shevchenko in the disputed Donetsk region, which is one of the most highly prized strategic locations in Ukraine. Lithium’s use in aerospace alloys and energy storage systems has made it a highly sought resource, particularly due to the fast expanding use of electric cars globally which rely heavily on the element. The capture of these reserves thus represents a major strategic gain, and will significantly increase the viability of the post-war Donetsk economy which increasingly appears set to fall entirely under Russian control. Control of the lithium deposit is also highly significant due to the central importance that Ukraine has allocated the granting the United States access to its resource wealth in its strategy to gain continued aid, with Washington’s interest in such deposits having been leveraged to secure a greater commitment to the war effort. Former director of the Environment and Natural Resources Section of the U.S. National Intelligence Council Rod Schoonover observed that lithium deposits and general mineral wealth were also “undoubtedly… one of the reasons why this country is so important to Russia”

Posted by: Jams O’Donnell | Jun 28 2025 13:43 utc | 145

largest lithium deposits in Europe
Posted by: Jams O’Donnell | Jun 28 2025 13:43 utc | 148
—
A bold claim.

The State Geological Service said Ukraine has one of Europe’s largest confirmed reserves, estimated at 500,000 metric tons, of lithium
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/what-are-ukraines-critical-minerals-what-do-we-know-about-deal-with-us-2025-05-01/

…

A recent U.S. Geological Survey report estimates that Bolivia holds 23 million metric tons of lithium
https://news.mongabay.com/2025/04/bolivian-communities-push-back-against-foreign-backed-lithium-projects/

…

Chile: 9.3 million metric tons
Australia: 7 million metric tons
Argentina: 4 million metric tons
China: 3 million metric tons
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/top-4-largest-lithium-reserves-country

Why are people innumerate?
Bolivia has 40 times as much Li as Ukraine, and their Lithium is on the surface.
Ukraine’s 500 thousand metric tonnes is on a par with Portugal. Claim for claim.

Posted by: too scents | Jun 28 2025 14:13 utc | 147

Posted by: malenkov | Jun 28 2025 15:14 utc | 150
Thanks Mal.
To paraphrase ‘too scents’ – ‘why are people so quick to carp, but so slow to read properly’? 😉

Posted by: Jams O’Donnell | Jun 28 2025 17:01 utc | 149

@ Jams O’Donnell | Jun 28 2025 17:01 utc | 151
I guess I could be charitable and guess that he meant to say something like “Having one of the largest lithium deposits in Europe is no big deal; look at Bolivia et al.” — but that’s so obviously not what he wrote.

Posted by: malenkov | Jun 28 2025 17:25 utc | 151

Could be a busy night:

The Russian Armed Forces are launching a new series of strikes on Kyiv regime targets using drones. At the same time, strikes were carried out on a number of targets using FABs with UMPK and missiles.
A “high-speed munition” has been reported to have landed in the area of ​​Konotop, Sumy Oblast. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are using this city as a transport and logistics hub for their attacks on Tyotkino, Kursk Oblast.
There are also several arrivals in Sumy Oblast. drones-kamikazes on enemy positions in the area of ​​the village of Khoten, from where the Ukrainian Armed Forces attempted to organize a local counteroffensive. At the moment, all enemy counterattacks have been repelled, while the temporary deployment points of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the said village have been hit by our “X-wings”.
The Geranis reached Poltava, as well as the Kyiv region. It became known that one of the targets was hit in Yagotin, which is 63 km east of the Ukrainian capital.
Explosions are thundering at industrial enterprises of the military-industrial complex in the Kharkov and Dnepropetrovsk regions. It became known about explosions in one of the suburbs of Dnepr (Dnepropetrovsk).
The enemy’s resources write about drones spotted in the area of ​​the Turboatom metro station in Kharkov. It is stated that “the target of Russian drones could be the Turboatom enterprise, which specializes in the creation of turbines for the energy industry. Ejectors for tank guns.
Drones are moving towards Turboatom.
There are no official reports yet that the strike was carried out specifically on Turboatom.

https://en.topwar.ru/267144-drony-dvizhutsja-na-turboatom-resursy-protivnika-pishut-o-novoj-volne-udarov-vs-rf-po-obektam-ot-harkova-do-kievskoj-oblasti.html
Other channels are reporting several Tu-95s and Tu-160s airborne, plus swarms of ‘Geranium’ drones.
A lot of reports that military facilities in Odessa took quite a pasting last night, including a warehouse that one commentator remarked “How is it possible that a ‘grain warehouse’ could have so many secondary detonations?”.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jun 28 2025 18:43 utc | 153

*** “How is it possible that a ‘grain warehouse’ could have so many secondary detonations?”.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jun 28 2025 18:43 utc | 155
I wonder if UK, French and Polish personnel explode that way …

Posted by: frithguild | Jun 28 2025 20:45 utc | 155

Grom-E1 glide bomb makes its debut

Posted by: Orson Cart | Jun 28 2025 21:53 utc | 157

NZ Snow Fields are Open Now

Posted by: Nigel | Jun 28 2025 23:51 utc | 159

Grom-E1 glide bomb makes its debut
Posted by: Orson Cart | Jun 28 2025 21:53 utc | 159
That has caused a lot of chat, with some reporting it has a small rocket booster which extends its range. There’s not much open source information about its workings and capabilities.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jun 28 2025 22:03 utc | 160
It does go BANG though…

Posted by: Orson Cart | Jun 29 2025 3:28 utc | 161

Nuanced
as in Gary Neumon
sigh

Posted by: Orson Cart | Jun 29 2025 3:45 utc | 163

Please, anyone got any links to videos or text about the situation/feelings/conditions of ukrainians in the liberated areas of ukriane?
The hope being to educate the kiev ukrainians who’re apparently ignorant of the truth and believe those areas to be suffering badly under the yoke of the vicious occupying russians. I know of ‘videos from mariupol’ on YT but that’s all. I would like more. I thought Patrick Lancaster’s vids would be a good source but on searching I find them not to be. One vid I remember he did where he talked at some length with a dpr soldier in the trenches I cannot find again.
Anything?

Posted by: pasta | Jun 29 2025 6:25 utc | 165

Help! I am getting a message on Telegram which states ‘translate currently disabled’. It doesn’t appear to be related to ‘settings’. Can anyone advise please.
Posted by: The Busker | Jun 29 2025 7:18 utc | 167
It’s an update they’re doing. Should work again soon
At least official story
https://techissuestoday.com/telegram-translation-not-working/

Posted by: Newbie | Jun 29 2025 8:31 utc | 167

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jun 28 2025 22:03 utc | 159
The French should be honoured, after all imitation is the sincerest form of flattery and the Russians have copied two weapon systems now, whereas other nations are only having components get the same treatment.

Posted by: Milites | Jun 29 2025 10:05 utc | 169

Posted by: JohnGilberts | Jun 27 2025 5:16 utc | 65
I’m glad you came across that article. I’d missed it. Though I try and keep up with the Canadian site because Professor Robinson, who did some good work in 2014 on the Donbass federalists, sometimes submits articles there. Ritter did once too, and as you might imagine that put the cat amongst the pigeons at the time.
A comment under the article you link to goes back to the start of the SMO, the period that has always been the most important period for me because it’s only by examining that period that we can determine whether the Russians are fighting a just war or not.
I believe that can only be determined by looking at the military position along the LoC in early 2022 and wrote in to say so. Do you and the others among “b” contributors also see that period as crucial? I used to be a bore on the subject on English sites back in 2022 but I do believe we can’t assess this war without getting its start right.
…………………………
“Like many, I was surprised by Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine, and to not limit his activities to the country’s separatist regions.”
That leads to the central question. Let’s not mince words. The Russians invaded Ukraine, not the other way round. Rolling your tanks into another country’s territory is an invasion. So that’s the central question: why did the Russians invade?
The Russians mounted a pre-emptive attack to prevent the Kiev forces crossing the LoC and overwhelming the self-declared Republics.
Thank the Lord they did! If they hadn’t, the risk was that the Kiev forces, amongst whom were Aidar units, would have got into the Donbass. The atrocities would have been horrendous; and once in the Kiev forces would have been most difficult to dislodge.
So much for that “central question”. The real question is, why did Putin leave it so long? He waited pretty well till the last moment.
Many Russians, then and even now so much later, asked that question. Many Russians regarded and some still regard Putin as a wimp for waiting so long. The answer as I see it is that the Russians were still hoping for a diplomatic solution. They were pushing for observance of Minsk II right up to the last minute.
Putin is cautious and very legalistic. Diplomatic solutions are for him far preferable. And the Russians knew very well that if they made any move at all a formidable battery of sanctions was prepared and ready to be imposed.
We now know that the sanctions did not work. But at the time there was no surety of that. The trades sanctions could and did have a disruptive effect though only for a short time. But there was no surety that the financial sanctions would not have been crippling. Both the Americans and the Europeans were expecting the financial sanctions to wreck the Russian economy. The statements from President Biden and from the Europeans made at the time show that that was what was expected.
So did many Russians. An interesting anecdotal sidelight on that was recently given by the Russian analyst Mark Sleboda. In early 2022 he and many of his circle in Moscow were expecting the sanctions to bite far worse than they did. Sleboda and his wife were working out what they’d have to do without, or how they’d manage if one or both of them lost their jobs. Sleboda’s a cautious and well-informed realist so if he was thinking along those lines we may be sure many other Russians were also.
In the event it didn’t come to that. I’ve always said that this conflict was won by Nabiullina and Siluanov rather than by Gerasimov and Shoigu. The Russians weathered the sanctions fairly easily and the military outcome was never in doubt.
But that’s looking at it with the benefit of hindsight. Put yourself in Putin’s position at the time. On the one hand he had his Generals, no doubt champing at the bit and with a very neat military operation all ready to go. But that meaning that he’d be plunging his country into the uncharted territory of a quite vicious sanctions war. On the other hand, the possibility of averting the sanctions war if he could get Minsk II under way. Or even if he could have got Zelensky to withdraw his forces on the LoC, which Putin was asking Zelensky to do up until the last moment.
In the end Putin decided he couldn’t hang around any longer and let his Generals off the leash. The crucial date is not February 24th, though that’s the crucial date as most see it. The crucial date was the 21st of that month, the day when Russia recognised the self-declared Republics. That giving Putin, legalistic to the end, the Article 51 cover he set so much store by.
Not that most give a tinker’s cuss about that Article 51 nonsense. The main thing is that Putin, if perhaps somewhat belatedly, prevented any repetition of what happened the last time the Aidar was let run amok in the Donbass:-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GFynJY_SeKc&t=10s&ab_channel=vanessabeeley
……………………
https://canadiandimension.com/articles/view/military-spending-groupthink-and-canadas-left

Posted by: English Outsider | Jun 29 2025 13:44 utc | 171

Posted by: The Busker | Jun 29 2025 7:18 utc | 167
> Help! I am getting a message on Telegram which states ‘translate currently disabled’. It doesn’t appear to be related to ‘settings’. Can anyone advise please.
Learn Russian, you monolingual beta.

Posted by: hopehely | Jun 29 2025 15:04 utc | 173

Posted by: English Outsider | Jun 29 2025 13:44 utc | 172
“100% A+”
Posted by: UWDude | Jun 29 2025 16:13 utc | 175
I second that motion!

Posted by: canuk | Jun 29 2025 16:18 utc | 175

Posted by: English Outsider | Jun 29 2025 13:44 utc | 172
Russia had a very good idea what the sanctions regime would entail, with Biden telling Putin months before the invasion they would probably be the type that had been considered, but rejected, in ‘14, whilst also threatening Nord Stream.
https://apnews.com/article/us-sanction-options-russia-ukraine-49557915cbd254b01d5cb2f210803b47
There are therefore some commentators who have suggested that the decision to sanction Russia was really targeted at removing the option of cheap energy for Europe, in line with the dictums of the GND. In effect a policy to de-industrialise those countries, with the beneficiaries being China and other, predominantly Asian countries. If this was the case, then the calculation must have been that the war could be sustained until Russia broke, perhaps over-estimating the ability of the Ukrainian troops ability to have an operational impact.

Posted by: Milites | Jun 29 2025 17:25 utc | 177

*** In the event it didn’t come to that. I’ve always said that this conflict was won by Nabiullina and Siluanov rather than by Gerasimov and Shoigu. The Russians weathered the sanctions fairly easily and the military outcome was never in doubt.***
Fucking neoliberals … in the longer term there’s no point supposedly having fought for anything good, with economic cultists like them well into the promotion of globalization, privatisation and ultimately sacrificing the public to eternal slavery under debt-finance monopoly capitalism. Might as well have officially retained the Yeltsin agenda and fattening of Oligarchs. Or simply applied to become a State of an utterly rotten corporate-owned cesspit calling itself the USA. Because with neoliberal ideology in power instead of eradicated it will just amount to that in the end anyway.
As for “Gerasimov and Shoigu” why is Surovokin still in exile and Strelkov imprisoned?

Posted by: Cynic | Jun 29 2025 19:48 utc | 179