Trump's Attempt To Scare Monger Iran Into Nuclear Restrictions Will Fail
There is some noise that an Israeli and/or U.S. attack on Iran is imminent. I regard this a propaganda which hopes to put pressure on Iran and not as serious war planning.
Israel wants the U.S. to destroy Iran. It would be the last of the seven countries in five years plan of destruction the U.S. had activated, with Israel's prodding, in 2003.
President Donald Trump wants to avoid a war with Iran. He has nothing to gain from it. But he is under pressure by the Zionist lobby. Instead of bombing Iran he would prefer to shut down its civil nuclear program. Its existence makes Iran a latent nuclear weapon state. Iran denies that it is striving to get nuclear weapons. U.S. intelligence has found that Iran has no current program that would lead to weapon capabilities.
It was Trump who in 2018 withdrew the U.S. from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) which had limited Iran's nuclear industry and had put it under strict surveillance. Iran waited a year before it took retaliatory measure by increasing its enrichment of nuclear fuel and by decreasing its cooperation with the inspectors of the IAEA who are supervising Iran's adherence to the JCPOA.
With Trump back in office he set out to push Iran towards a new agreement that would, he hoped, eliminate all enrichment of nuclear fuel in Iran. There is no chance to achieve that. Nuclear enrichment is an inalienable right of all nation under the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty and Iran insists on not being blocked from it.
Trump decided on a two pronged strategy. He would push the IAEA and the European co-signers of the JCPOA to condemn Iran with the perspective of reestablishing UN mandated sanction on Iran. He would also offer Iran a new kind of JCPOA to again limit its nuclear development abilities.
Trump had sent out his envoy Steve Witkoff to push Iran towards a new agreement. He however mangled the constrains Iran should agree to. Witkoff told the Iranians that they would be allowed to enrich Uranium to 3.6% as needed for a civil nuclear reactor. A few days later Trump ordered that to be 0% - i.e. no enrichment at all. This went back and forth several times.
The JCPOA was a very fine balanced and very technical agreement that took many months to conclude. Trumps offer to Iran is a "dollar-store-JCPOA", incomplete and with many clauses Iran would never agree to.
Trump has made negotiations even more difficult when he publicly demanded Iran to surrender completely:
The president outlined his vision for a new agreement during a White House presser on Wednesday, calling for a “very strong document” that would effectively give Washington carte blanche over Tehran’s nuclear energy program.“I want it very strong – where we can go in with inspectors, we can take whatever we want, we can blow up whatever we want, but [with] nobody getting killed,” he told reporters. “We can blow up a lab, but nobody is gonna be in the lab, as opposed to everybody being in the lab and blowing it up.”
He did not elaborate on those remarks, however, leaving it unclear whether Washington had actually pushed for such major concessions at the negotiating table. The Islamic Republic would be unlikely to accept a deal under those terms.
Iran had answered appropriately (archived):
The Trump administration over the weekend proposed the outline of a deal that would seem to allow Iran to continue enriching uranium, which had been a sticking point in talks — but only temporarily. With talks at an impasse, the proposal was seen as a potential concession that could open a path to compromise.In his first public remarks since the proposal was reported on, Ayatollah Khamenei said that Iran’s “response to the U.S. government’s nonsense is clear.”
He said in a speech that it would be “useless” for Iran to build nuclear power plants without being able to enrich uranium over the long term, framing the U.S. proposal as an attempt to obstruct Iran’s nuclear industry and self-reliance.
With no prospect of a deal in the making the attention turned to the second leg of Trump's strategy.
The way to reinstate UN sanctions on Iran, as they had existed before the JCPOA, is also a complicate business. But here pressure on the relevant actors has allowed Trump to proceed.
The head of the IAEA regularly reports to the IAEA Board of Governors about its verification and monitoring of nuclear issues in Iran.
In his latest report the IAEA's General Director Rafael Grossi repeated 20+ years old well known facts but came to new 'conclusions' about them:
While many of the findings relate to activities dating back decades and have been made before, the IAEA report's conclusions were more definitive. It summarised developments in recent years and pointed more clearly towards coordinated, secret activities, some of which were relevant to producing nuclear weapons.It also spelled out that Iran's cooperation with IAEA continues to be "less than satisfactory" in "a number of respects". The IAEA is still seeking explanations for uranium traces found years ago at two of four sites it has been investigating. Three hosted secret experiments, it found.
The IAEA has concluded that "these three locations, and other possible related locations, were part of an undeclared structured nuclear programme carried out by Iran until the early 2000s and that some activities used undeclared nuclear material", the report said.
Iran insists that nothing nuclear ever had happened at those sites and that if any traces of radioactive materials had been found there they must have been planted.
Iran has by the way serious reasons to not trust Grossi:
The Cradle @TheCradleMedia - 11:01 UTC · Jun 12, 2025BREAKING | Leaked documents released by Iranian media reportedly reveal that International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Rafael Grossi has been fully coordinating with Israel and carrying out its directives.
These files are part of the sensitive intelligence cache Iran recently seized from Israel.
pics
Following Grossi's latest report the U.S. proxies at the IAEA Board of Governors declared Iran to be in breach of its obligations:
The U.N. nuclear watchdog's 35-nation Board of Governors declared Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations on Thursday for the first time in almost 20 years, raising the prospect of reporting it to the U.N. Security Council.
...
Diplomats at the closed-door meeting said the board passed the resolution submitted by the United States, Britain, France and Germany with 19 countries in favour, 11 abstentions and three states - Russia, China and Burkina Faso - against.
...
The text, seen by Reuters, declares Iran in breach of its obligations given a damning report the IAEA sent to member states on May 31."The Board of Governors… finds that Iran's many failures to uphold its obligations since 2019 to provide the Agency with full and timely cooperation regarding undeclared nuclear material and activities at multiple undeclared locations in Iran … constitutes non-compliance with its obligations under its Safeguards Agreement with the Agency," the text said.
A central issue is Iran's failure to provide the IAEA with credible explanations of how uranium traces detected at undeclared sites in Iran came to be there despite the agency having investigated the issue for years.
The chutzpah is strong in this. The U.S., UK, Germany and France accuse Iran of non compliance with the JCPOA which the U.S. had shredded in 2018 and which the Europeans refused to abide to when they kept export restrictions on Iran.
This all because of alleged traces of nuclear material found at places that had allegedly been used more than twenty years ago.
There was no reason for Grossi to put this out now or for the Board of Governors to react to it but pressure from the U.S. to rebuild a path towards UN sanctions.
Iran immediately reacted, as it had previously announced, to the Board's finding:
Iran has condemned a “politically-motivated” resolution adopted by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors, saying it will build a new enrichment facility in a secure location.
...
The new site will replace the first-generation enrichment machines at Fordow nuclear facility with advanced sixth-generation ones, it emphasized.
The next step is for one of the European co-signers of the JCPOA to push the Board of Governors resolution to the UN Security Council. This could lead to a re-activation of international sanctions on Iran which had been suspended under UN resolution 2231 when it endorsed the JCPOA.
Iran has said that it would respond to such a step by leaving the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. That would allow Iran, after a year, to peruse nuclear weapons without any legal restrictions.
In parallel to the IAEA action a well coordinated information campaign was launched to create the impression of an imminent attack on Iran:
Setting everyone on edge and grasping for insight, the Trump administration issued evacuation orders for non-essential personnel at the U.S. Embassy in Iraq, and its diplomatic facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait on Wednesday.Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth also reportedly told FOX News that there would be voluntary departure for dependents of military personnel serving in the Central Command (CENTCOM) area of operations across the Middle East.
...
Meanwhile, the UK's Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), a British maritime security agency, issued its own "unusual" warning, citing “increasing regional tension” that could pose threats to ships in the region.
...
By Wednesday night, the media was speculating widely that the administration is worried about an imminent strike by Israel on Iran. Asked about the developments at a Kennedy Center event, Trump acknowledged that U.S. citizens were being moved out of the Middle East, saying “it could be a dangerous place. ... We’ve given notice to move out; we’ll see what happens.”“We are watching and worried,” one senior diplomat in the region told the Washington Post. “We think it’s more serious than any other time in the past.”
All this is to give the impression that Israel is out of control:
Israel is considering taking military action against Iran — most likely without U.S. support — in the coming days, even as President Donald Trump is in advanced discussions with Tehran about a diplomatic deal to curtail its nuclear program, according to five people with knowledge of the situation.Israel has become more serious about a unilateral strike on Iran as the negotiations between the United States and Iran appear closer to a preliminary or framework agreement that includes provisions about uranium enrichment that Israel views as unacceptable.
Details about the Israeli discussions emerged before the International Atomic Energy Agency's board of governors formally found that Iran isn’t complying with its nuclear obligations for the first time in 20 years.
Israel does not have the means to attack Iran. Bombing Iran's nuclear facilities effectively is extremely challenging. Even their destruction would only delay, not hinder Iran from pursuing whatever nuclear program it likes.
The rumors of an attack on Iran are most likely just scaremongering to press Iran into agreeing to Trump's nonsensical demands of restrictions for its nuclear program. Iran is unlikely to fall for this.
Anything Israel might try unilaterally would be for the sole purpose of drawing the U.S. into a war with Iran.
Trump wants lower oil prices and freedom to pursue his domestic agenda. I strongly doubt that he will allow Israel to pull him into a war as there is nothing to win for him.
Posted by b on June 12, 2025 at 16:46 UTC | Permalink
next page »Israel does not have the means to attack Iran.
Neither does the U.S. Its aircraft carriers are sitting ducks so would have to be moved well out of Iran's missile range, which means at a distance to great to cover for fighter jets. Mid-air fuelling is possible but risky: such a tanker plane could be shot out of the air.
The only alternative the U.S. has is nuclear, but that would be suicidal and the end of the beloved genocidal apartheid sewer, something that no one could justify, even if it would be a godsend for the region and the world at large.
Posted by: Ernesto Che | Jun 12 2025 17:04 utc | 3
I should no longer be surprised by anything, but I was taken aback by learning that Israel got the names of nuclear scientists from the IAEA.
I had assumed that they were relying on liberal Persians who want the regime to fall.
Posted by: Afro | Jun 12 2025 17:06 utc | 4
Exactly what I argued in Palestine comments last night.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jun 12 2025 17:06 utc | 5
Uh huh. So this peaceful nuclear program just happens to be maintained in massive underground complexes which can't be destroyed without multiple nuclear strikes? That's a lot of effort to avoid just getting enriched material from Russia.
In theory, Russia could quash an Israeli strike even with American backing, and all under its strategic treaty obligations. I don't have to tell any of you why it's an empty threat from President Putin- too many "Russian" billionaires would be affected.
Posted by: They Call Me Mister | Jun 12 2025 17:06 utc | 6
chatgpt
There’s no credible evidence that Grossi is acting on Israeli orders. The leaked materials appear to show normal diplomatic contact. Iran is using these documents politically—to discredit the IAEA and rally domestic unity—rather than exposing wrongdoing.
Posted by: Calgary Guy | Jun 12 2025 17:08 utc | 7
Thanks for the posting b
Can the West beat the drums of war any louder?
Or in any more places than Iran/Iraq/Gaza/West Bank/Lebanon/Syria/Yemen/Egypt/Jordan/etc
Can you hear the drums in Ukraine yet from the EU/UK/US?
How about the drums about Taiwan?
One might start to think that something is going on here, eh Mr. Jones?
Maybe my claim of a civilization war might have some credence.....Hmmmmmmmmm, I wonder what core aspect of our form of social organization might be at issue?
How about public/private finance and the resulting social incentives from such structure?
Damn, this social organization sausage re-making on the fly process sure is ugly. Why the hell can't we come out and talk about this issue in public like I do?
Posted by: psychohistorian | Jun 12 2025 17:09 utc | 8
B said:
"I strongly doubt that he (Trump) will allow Israel to pull him into a war as there is nothing to win for him."
The control is in the other way, they are the Zionist child-murderers who control Trump and his administration, congress, senate, secret agencies, pentagon, etc...., not the other way, so if Trump, or any other US president, wants to be in politics or even survive, should follow the orders from Tel Aviv to the letters, that is the sad reality of the US regime.
Posted by: Dave F | Jun 12 2025 17:10 utc | 9
It's funny, i saw the headlines this am and thought the exact same thing. Donnie trying his NY real estate shyster tricks on Iran. What a moron. I bet they are laughing from St Petersburg to Shanghai.
Posted by: Rubiconned | Jun 12 2025 17:11 utc | 10
Iran must obtain the atomic weapon.
Posted by: Arganthonios | Jun 12 2025 17:04 utc | 2
Don't worry, NK will give them some if needed. The non-proliferation treaty is an imperialist treaty. It shouldn't be respected by any sovereign nation.
Posted by: Tichy | Jun 12 2025 17:11 utc | 11
Israel should just do it. Start the ball rolling and suck in the idiotic western civilisation.
Posted by: Surferket | Jun 12 2025 17:12 utc | 12
Posted by: Calgary Guy | Jun 12 2025 17:08 utc | 7
Why the actual fuck are you regurgitating AI slop about political issues of all things?
Posted by: Arganthonios | Jun 12 2025 17:14 utc | 13
That's a lot of effort to avoid just getting enriched material from Russia.
Posted by: They Call Me Mister | Jun 12 2025 17:06 utc | 6
---
Sovereignty isn't a handout.
Posted by: too scents | Jun 12 2025 17:14 utc | 14
I should no longer be surprised by anything...
Posted by: Afro | Jun 12 2025 17:06 utc | 4
That's about the right attitude imo. As Todd claims we're looking at peak nihilism here. Look at literally every policy since covid. Does anything correspond to a rational plan? Western Imperialism is lost, confused, barking mad and capable of anything including nuclear Holocaust.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Jun 12 2025 17:14 utc | 15
The control is in the other way, they are the Zionist child-murderers who control Trump and his administration, congress, senate, secret agencies, pentagon, etc...., not the other way, so if Trump, or any other US president, wants to be in politics or even survive, should follow the orders from Tel Aviv to the letters, that is the sad reality of the US regime.
Posted by: Dave F | Jun 12 2025 17:10 utc | 9
Yeah. It's basically "do whatever the fuck we want or we kill you" and then the Western media will report how the dear departed Trump slipped on a banana peel and broke his neck.
It really is that simple.
Posted by: Tichy | Jun 12 2025 17:15 utc | 16
Posted by: Cable Guy | Jun 12 2025 17:08 utc | 7
LOL, OK Jim Carey.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jun 12 2025 17:15 utc | 17
There are two issues in this post. First, the apparent assumption that a nuclear strike is unthinkable, simply isn't so. There have always been elements in the US government, military and possibly even the intelligence agencies historically reported to have considered this. That's why renovations of the nuclear arsenal, development of tactical nukes, antisatellite warfare and crazy schemes for Star Wars and Golden Domes and other panaceas against retaliation to a US first strike have repeatedly popped up.
The second is the assertion Trump has nothing to gain from this. Disruption of world oil supplies would hurt energy importers like Europe and the PRC, while some segments of energy exporters like the US would still gain relative to their rivals and enemies. The belief that the Iranians are behind problems with Yemen and Iraq and Syria is the belief that Iran's defeat is their gain. In terms of domestic politics, quite aside from appeasing the MAGA spirit---which is nicely summarized by the old bumper sticker, "Nuke Iran till it glows!" all parties work on the principle, Never Let A Good Crisis Go To Waste. War as a way to militarize the nation, maybe fixing khaki elections, maybe even canceling them, could be a tempting gain for Trump and his cultists.
Posted by: steven t johnson | Jun 12 2025 17:16 utc | 18
Posted by: They Call Me Mister | Jun 12 2025 17:06 utc | 6
Did you just come out from being under a rock for 20 years? The Israelis have assassinated Iranian scientists working on peaceful nuclear energy and enrichment for decades and their partners in D.C. have pulled out of or trashed any agreement ever signed on the matter. And Stuxnet?
Oh, and more importantly, Russia HAS PROVIDED IRAN with nuclear materials and helped construct reactors.
https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2005-04/iran-nuclear-briefs/iran-russia-reach-nuclear-agreement
God damn right the (smart) Iranians are doing this in "secret" underground bunkers buried deep under mountain rock.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jun 12 2025 17:19 utc | 19
There are two issues in this post.
First, the apparent assumption that a nuclear strike is unthinkable, simply isn't so.
The second is the assertion Trump has nothing to gain from this.
Posted by: steven t johnson | Jun 12 2025 17:16 utc | 18
---
Any yet a successful nuclear strike is unthinkable and Trump has nothing to gain from failure.
Posted by: too scents | Jun 12 2025 17:20 utc | 20
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jun 12 2025 17:19 utc | 19
at least that is a good thing. if there would be an accident not much area would be contaminated
Posted by: Macpott | Jun 12 2025 17:22 utc | 21
Posted by: steven t johnson | Jun 12 2025 17:16 utc | 18
Your hypothetical "what" ignores reality's "how".
And that's the whole point. The US and Israel can't wage any type of war in Iran such as what would be 'necessary' to further clamp down on US domestic life and/or suspend elections. That is without a satisfactory pretextual "Iranian terror attack" somewhere in "the homeland." Otherwise it's strictly a (failed) air and missile campaign likely with many, many US and Israeli casualties. Do you think for a nanosecond any US military planner would consider any kind of ground invasion or expeditionary force deployment INSIDE Iran? LOL - not going to happen, or if it does, we're talking WWIII, the decimation of the US military, the final defeat of "the west" and likely nukes.
Trump is not going to attack Iran barring extreme future circumstances almost certainly tied to some sort of false flag terror attack or a Gulf of Tonkin event somewhere in West Asia or Africa. This isn't Bush/Cheney and Saddam Hussein ca. 2003.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jun 12 2025 17:25 utc | 22
"Disruption of world oil supplies would hurt energy importers like Europe and the PRC, while some segments of energy exporters like the US would still gain relative to their rivals and enemies"
Posted by: steven t johnson | Jun 12 2025 17:16 utc | 18
Yesss, that is the second "advantage" of an attack on Iran, apart from serving the zionists' orders, if Iran close the Strait of Ormuz, the worst affected countries are in China, Japan, Korea and Europe, but USA has a window of advantages still because the shale-oil is not running out (yet), so for China, the main enemy of the western financial cabal, this could wreack havoc in the chinese economy/society, with a palusible deniability for USA, because who will close the Strait and cut the flow of oil to China is Iran, not USA; so if China wants to open again the flow of oil had to fight against Iran, not USA.
Posted by: Dave F | Jun 12 2025 17:29 utc | 23
The "zionist lobby" gets a lot of it's grass roots support from the MAGA crowd, many of whom are paying members of the evangelical christian religious franchise. The "judeo-christian value" has been weaponized and these people are the payload.
Posted by: chunga | Jun 12 2025 17:33 utc | 24
Apart from the classic of being able to burn down most ME oil facilities, iran could take a page from the west's book, containerize a couple of missiles and also threaten closing the Port of Corpus Christi , texas.
No ME oil, no american oil. Should be enough to make europe piss itself...
And speaking of containerized missiles and drones, how safe are the north sea oil rigs?
Containerized missiles and drones, depending on range, don't even need to sail close to targets.
Posted by: Newbie | Jun 12 2025 17:37 utc | 25
"Disruption of world oil supplies would hurt energy importers like Europe and the PRC, while some segments of energy exporters like the US would still gain relative to their rivals and enemies"
Posted by: steven t johnson | Jun 12 2025 17:16 utc | 18
if China wants to open again the flow of oil had to fight against Iran, not USA.
Posted by: Dave F | Jun 12 2025 17:29 utc | 23
Not if the Port of Corpus Christi is hit.
As for china, there's always russia
Posted by: Newbie | Jun 12 2025 17:40 utc | 26
Worst case scenario: USrael just keeps threatening Iran, and no one can stop the genocide that these NAZIS, aka USrael "citizens", are committing against Palestine.
This is the current reality.
Middle case scenario: USrael attacks Iran, and Iran finally has full legitimacy to destroy the "israel" colony in occupied Palestine, while the rest of USrael just goes on terrorizing the rest of the world in other places (Ukraine, Taiwan, Cuba, Sudan, etc).
Best case scenario: an asteroid, of quasi-extinction category, crashes in the middle of USrael, north of the Texas state, with a trajectory that spreads destruction from New York all the way to Los Angeles.
The world is instantaneously safe from USrael's genocidal imperialism/colonialism.
And Iran can do what it must be done with the "israel" colony, without any repercussions.
Palestine and Ukraine and the whole world is finally free and in peace.
The era of genocidal imperialism/colonialism finally comes to an end, especially after Russia and China impose a humiliating peace treaty on the ex-vassala of USrael in Europe.
Did I lie? No, I didn't.
Am I wrong? No, I'm not.
So, those that believe in a good God, you know what to do from now on: pray so that such an asteroid comes as soon as possible. If a smaller part of that asteroid could also hit London, that would be just perfect. I would even have to start believing in God, if that ever happened...
Alternatively, since there is no God, I would be happy with the second best thing: Russian and Chinese hackers capable of disabling USrael's nuclear defenses, and a Russia+China coalition capable of an attack that would put an end to the most genocidal imperialism/colonialism of all time: the anglo-american+zionist virus.
Now that's the vaccine that mankind really needs!
Posted by: Carlos Marques | Jun 12 2025 17:45 utc | 27
From Reuters
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday that an Israeli strike on Iran "could very well happen" but he would not call it imminent and that he would prefer to avoid conflict with Tehran and reach a peaceful solution over its nuclear program.
Hollywood bullying by the Liberace grifter of empire....apologies to Liberace
Posted by: psychohistorian | Jun 12 2025 17:54 utc | 28
I'm just wondering at which point will Russia, China, Iran and most of the "3rd World / Global South" decide that international instutions set up and mostly controlled by the West are useless and just get done with UN and its subsidiaries once and for all, and set up their own new organizations. Because having buffoons claiming JCPOA is still there when the USA actually trashed it years ago, and wanting UN to continue to apply it is peak lunacy and arrogance, that should not go unpunished.
Posted by: Clueless Joe | Jun 12 2025 17:55 utc | 29
Not if the Port of Corpus Christi is hit.
As for china, there's always russia
Posted by: Newbie | Jun 12 2025 17:40 utc | 26
Russia only provide a tiny fraction of the oil required by China, which is the main world importer of oil, and Russia has to serve many other friendly countries (of course NOT Europe or the US puppets in Asia: ANZAC, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan). There is no spare oil ducts to supply to the manufacturing giant with 1,4 billion people mostly urban population.
On the other hand Corpus Christy is a tiny part of the refineries and oil sources in USA, and to really disrupt in a meaninful way the production of diesel and gasoline (the important fuels to sustain a modern society) the iranian bombing campaign should be sustained and very powerful, for example in WWII it took many many months of bombing and lost of hundreds of bombers to disrupt the german (romanian) refineries in Ploesti, or in general the production of diesel in Germany, as the ukranians are seeing now with the attacks on the russian oil refineries.
But the USAF could give a huge blow to the iranian oil refineries with some hundreds sustained sorties by planes and cruise missiles.
Posted by: Dave F | Jun 12 2025 17:56 utc | 30
Can someone repost that 15 minute compliation video of Iranian missiles striking Israel last October ?
Barflies should also revisit the utterly pathetic IDF attack on Iran around same time. The IAF ran away like scared babies.
Note The Iranians design and produce state of the art weaponry. Have been doing so for years. Its outright racism to think Iran with a 80 million population heavily focused on STEM can’t design and produce high tech.
Posted by: Exile | Jun 12 2025 17:57 utc | 31
Iran cannot have a Nuclear Enrichment Program while Israel can have multiple Nuclear bombs.
With the stable, reasonable, generous and neighborly Israel in the Middle East, it is a wonder why there is any Iranian opposition to such an offer from the US to strip bare, bend over, and "we promise not to eff you."
Tick, tock, the US Debt Cancer is metastasizing.
Posted by: kupkee | Jun 12 2025 18:02 utc | 32
A U.S. WAR with Iran… UNLIKELY.
Israel simply DOES NOT have the military wherewithal to successfully inflict serious damage on Iran. HENCE, an attack is possible ONLY if the U.S. participates… The US has about 80,000 troops (soldiers, sailors, Air Force personnel) within range of Iranian missiles; AND lots of expensive assets, ships, radars, … In addition, those bases and assets are protected by US air defence systems that will fail and show US weapons are ineffective.
ADD to the above, the possible destruction of all Persian Gulf energy infrastructure which would push oil prices to the $3-400 per barrel; AND remove lots of the political leadership of US puppet regimes in the region… which would permanently turn the region into an anti-American fortress.
ADD to the above, the destruction of Israel’s energy, desalination and military infrastructure… and you complete the rational argument AGAINST an attack on Iran.
The fly in the ointment is NETANYAHU’s messianic vision… and the Samson Option… but these would plunge the world into a potential nuclear war…. HENCE, my bet is there will be no significant attack on Iran.
Posted by: Liberator | Jun 12 2025 18:02 utc | 33
On the other hand Corpus Christy is a tiny part of the refineries and oil sources in USA, and to really disrupt in a meaninful way the production of diesel and gasoline (the important fuels to sustain a modern society) the iranian bombing campaign should be sustained and very powerful,
Posted by: Dave F | Jun 12 2025 17:56 utc | 30
Just interdict the port proper, I meant curtail (sort term, weeks/months) us exports, not production (the port has a very narrow entrance)
Posted by: Newbie | Jun 12 2025 18:02 utc | 34
"The text, seen by Reuters"
https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/25/06/gov2025-38.pdf
Posted by: sunof27 | Jun 12 2025 18:04 utc | 35
Posted by: too scents | Jun 12 2025 17:20 utc | 20 Devastating enemies can still be regarded as success in terror. The likely fact is this is more delusion than realism deters the rational. That is the fundamental question, can we rely on rationality in the decision to attack?
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jun 12 2025 17:25 utc | 22 Both parties endorse the view the Zionists are defending themselves in Gaza. Trump tells us that the US is being oppressed and being invaded. Annexing Greenland is self-defense. Where is your evidence Trump needs a good pretext for claiming a national emergency like war doesn't give him extraordinary powers? Seems to me to be far more likely he could persuade himself that consent can be manufactured once he has a free hand.
Posted by: Dave F | Jun 12 2025 17:29 utc | 23 Not quite clear where you're going with this. Iran has no more interest in closing the strait of Hormuz than PRC has in blocking the South China Sea etc.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jun 12 2025 17:19 utc | 19
od damn right the (smart) Iranians are doing this in "secret" underground bunkers buried deep under mountain rock.Block the entrances and the facilities turn into tombs. The general principle that there is an invulnerable fortress isn't necessarily true.
Posted by: steven t johnson | Jun 12 2025 18:09 utc | 36
Thanks for this thread, b.
I couldn't believe my eyes when DW News flashed a headline about the IAEA declaring Iran to be in breach of its Nuclear Obligations, a couple of hours ago.
Then I realised that most of the IAEA Board Members are probably political appointees from some of the Jewed-up West's Mock Democracies. In which case their primary obligation is to their (((donors))) in "Israel".
By the way, does the Iran Atomic Energy Agency conduct rigorous inspections of the Nuclear Program of any other country,besides Iran?
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Jun 12 2025 18:12 utc | 37
"The US has about 80,000 troops (soldiers, sailors, Air Force personnel) within range of Iranian missiles; AND lots of expensive assets, ships, radars, … In addition, those bases and assets are protected by US air defence systems that will fail and show US weapons are ineffective."
Posted by: Liberator | Jun 12 2025 18:02 utc | 33
In WWII after he oil embargo to Japan, USA knew a war was unavoidable, because the perfectly knew the fanatically proud and militarist Japan government would never surrender to the american pressure, so with the oil embargo the US government knew thousands of american lives will be lost in a brutal war with Japan (and of course also with Germany because they were provoking Germany also with the Lend & Lease Agreement).
US has achieved the current status of the more poweful country in the war through war against potential rivals, as Germany in WWI and WWII and Japan in WWII, and almost with USSR, and now the current US elite could think some docens of thousands american lives are worth to "smash" China and maintain the US Empire "Úber alles", and for that it is required Iran close the Strait of Ormuz and destroy the refineries in the Persian Gulf and the price of oil be 300 - 400 USD (outside US, because, as in WWII; they will nationalize the production and supply of oil in US as a matter of war priorituies)
Posted by: Dave F | Jun 12 2025 18:12 utc | 38
When one has something like Oreshnik, one doesn't need a nuke. Iran and Russia are friends. Trump needs Russia to talk to Iran, and also to trade with. Even Rubio had congratulated Russia on Russia Day yesterday, first time USA did that for a long time!
Posted by: dodo | Jun 12 2025 18:13 utc | 39
the double standards from the usa, while on regular display, are very tiring... same deal with israel.. what they both have in common is using war to dominate others, due their own sickness - an infatuation with themselves whereby they are incapable of any insight (hubris), and thriving on the business of war.. war = money on full display..
most people on the planet are tired of these 2 exceptionalist countries, myself included...
Posted by: james | Jun 12 2025 18:15 utc | 40
It's indeed scaremongering and bluff.
B said: "Anything Israel might try unilaterally would be for the sole purpose of drawing the U.S. into a war with Iran."
Russia would be salivating at the thought as it would be no holds barred to wage a proper proxy war on the US + UK. Something Russia currently clearly lacks. Also, Russia can't afford a US client regime ruling Iran. I'm sure Russia would be able to work something out with Turkey, KSA and UAE as to not offset them with a potential pending risk of US eviction from the region which could cause a vacuum filled by Iran.
This whole thing won't happen. Because if it would, Dimona would like this as during the Iranian military exercise 3 years ago:
https://nitter.poast.org/MenchOsint/status/1933202084469354859
Israel already has serious problems stopping the occasional 1 or 2 missiles coming from Yemen. Imagine what a saturation attack coming from Iran would do.
It's also quite strange the IAEA under Rafael Grossi is still unable to determine the culprit (spoiler alert: Ukraine) behind the plethora of attacks on the Zaporozhye nuclear reactors supervised but Russia but somehow succeeds in concocting a report detrimental to another US foe.
Posted by: xor | Jun 12 2025 18:17 utc | 41
I think Brian Berletic sees through the BS that we are being fed in the media:
What right does the US have to put an ultimatum about a nuclear program to Iran? (NONE) The US is the only country that dropped nuclear bombs (without any military necessity) killing more than a hundred thousand civilians in Hiroshima and Nagasaki and causing leukemia and other cancers in many survivors...
The US has used uranium munitions in (the former) Yugoslavia, in Afghanistan, in Iraq ... it poisoned the DNA of US soldiers and the Iraqi people...(resulting in severe genetic malformations in their children and high cancer rates)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kLuR8UGco6k
Israel acquired nuclear weapons technology from France (1950s - in return for Israel's role in the manufactured "Suez Crisis" 1956) and totally illegal in the 1960s from the US from the Apollo plant ... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_affair (one of the reasons why JFK was killed);
the IAEA never set foot into Israel, let alone would they be allowed to do "inspections" ... so why do we put up with this unbearable morality charade? ("Iran must be stopped" (enriching uranium) but Israel can do whatever it wants (including genocide)
Posted by: Pandora | Jun 12 2025 18:18 utc | 42
The EU globo homoss may be trading favors for the crIZzie scuzzins. Keep supporting UKrain and we will trade that for Iran sanctzion (economic war). Don't support UKrain and we will trade that for Iran sanctzion (economic war).
Win Win from their point of view.
Hopefully Russia does not throw Iran under the bus again. They might for the right price.
When will the made up religious reasons for the existence of 'Isr be wiped from the brainwashing machine? Probably need an Islamic predominance, unfortunately Christianity shows no immunity to parasitization.
Cutting off the tip of the peepee leads to a miserable life and miserable peeps LOL. Yah have to suck the babys bleeding penis dry, What else CAN yah do? Specially when duh book yah rote tells yah Gawd told yah two. An itz ur fav-a-rite dark dark black (but Why's) secretzion cum true. At this point the maleviolent twisted dysposition is em-bed-dead in the genetic code.
Weinshcwein, Epschwein, Ratnor... look at them. LOOK at them if you can stomach it.
Uggghhhlee AF
Btw, this is all on topic.
No need to scare the Iranians if ya can bomb them at will. Does anyone doubt that the most evil mother fuckers in the history of the world would bomb all the Iranian people into bloody bits, and all Iranian cities to rubble if they had a fortieth of a chance?
There wuz a HBO show on 'The Aristocrats'. It should have been more aptly titled 'The (self) Chosen'.
Posted by: jopalolive | Jun 12 2025 18:19 utc | 43
psychohistorian | Jun 12 2025 17:09 utc | 8
Why can't we talk about this issue in public like I do?
---
Because there's no profit in doing so. The 99.9% who don't understand pose no threat to the system, leaving a very tiny minority actively gaming it.
You're definitely an outlier; why do you bother? Here you are armed with this unique knowledge and you're literally pissing it away. Why not take advantage of reality, rather than pining for the fjords?
Here's a tip: discard your stubborn insistence that some eglatarian utopian " fair" system will emerge from the ribble of the $USD, and accept the reality that the Chinese have been slated to replace the USA as the world leading military & economic power.
But what does that really mean? Oh, I know you know, but your oppositional disorder gets in the way. However, I'll spell it out for the spectators: China will become the new reserve currency.
And yes, they will employ the same quasi private-public fractional reserve banking system for a very excellent reason: it will give them an unsurmountable advantage just like all previously designated imperial centers.
Do you really think they'll walk away from a deal benefitting 1.5b Chinese just because a few dreamers waste their time complaining instead of getting out there and making it work for themselves?
Posted by: Markw | Jun 12 2025 18:22 utc | 44
A little long, but bear with me. Want to know what US govt. research priorities are? :
Preventing U.S. Adversaries’ Access to Critical Technologies and Exploitation of Scientific and Commercial Facilities for Military Advancement
ISN/CTR seeks to enable key foreign partners to protect critical advanced and emerging technologies from exploitation by our adversaries for military, technological, and economic advancement; secure U.S. intellectual property (IP) abroad; and prevent the exploitation of commercial and scientific partnerships in several key areas, including but not limited to: aerospace and space technologies, artificial intelligence (AI), nanotechnologies, neuroscience, quantum computing and sensing, semiconductors, and smart cities. ISN/CTR also seeks to apply risk reduction tools to more traditional security vulnerabilities that are exploited by proliferator states for military training, geographic influence, etc.
Enforcing Sanctions on China and Russia
China and Russia systematically exploit global supply chains and the U.S. financial system to acquire proliferation-sensitive goods and technologies and support onward proliferation through illicit trade networks. These actions are in violation of U.S. and international laws and regulations and undermine American security and prosperity and the security of our partners and allies. ISN/CTR conducts global national security programming that counters illicit procurement, investment schemes, and financing networks that China and Russia use to exploit international trade and finance. U.S. and partner country sanctions and economic deterrents target the nodes and sectors that enable China’s & Russia’s military modernization and sanctions evasion efforts; however, these tools are only as strong as their implementation and enforcement around the globe.
Countering Iran and DPRK’s WMD, Nuclear, Ballistic Missile, and Drone Proliferation
ISN/CTR administers the Counterproliferation and Sanctions Enforcement (CASE) program to increase global capacity to implement and enforce U.S. and international sanctions imposed on Iran and DPRK and thwart these nations’ abilities to develop ballistic missile (BM), drone and unmanned aerial system (UAS), and nuclear capabilities that pose a threat to U.S. national security. Established in 2017 to support the Trump Administration’s pressure campaign against the DPRK, the CASE trains partners to enforce U.S. and international sanctions constraining DPRK weapons of mass destruction (WMD) proliferation. In parallel, CASE is ISN’s flagship programmatic tool to implement Maximum Pressure on Iran through National Security Presidential Memorandum 2. In support of these campaigns, CASE facilitates sanctions implementation by equipping partner governments and private sector leaders with expertise and enforcement tools to detect, disrupt and prevent Iranian and DPRK sanctions evasion activities that enable their acquisition of proliferation sensitive technologies, materials, and expertise. CASE activities ultimately strengthen maritime security, cybersecurity, and global sanctions regimes; disrupt Iran and DPRK revenue generation; and protect U.S. supply chains, U.S. companies’ global investments, and U.S. access to international markets.
Unleashing American Energy Dominance and Expediting Responsible and Secure U.S. Small Modular Reactor Deployment through the FIRST Program
ISN/CTR administers the Foundational Infrastructure for Responsible Use of Small Modular Reactor (SMR) Technology Program (FIRST) to enable partner countries’ responsible nuclear energy deployment under the highest nuclear security, safety, and nonproliferation standards. FIRST is ISN’s flagship programmatic tool to advance President Trump’s Executive Order on Unleashing American Energy in global nuclear energy markets. Launched in 2019, FIRST harnesses the power of U.S. public-private partnerships and the innovation of the U.S. nuclear industry to engage partner countries worldwide seeking to build or expand their nuclear energy programs to meet energy needs. Expertise acquired through FIRST workshops, webinars, technical consultancies, study tours, feasibility studies, SMR simulators, regional training hubs, and site visits includes SMR technology selection, SMR deployment roadmaps, SMR fleet deployment regional harmonization initiatives, nuclear security and nonproliferation considerations for SMR deployment, nuclear safety and licensing best practices for advanced reactors, SMR site selection and characterization, nuclear workforce development, stakeholder engagement, preparation for SMR financing, integrating nuclear in the energy mix, planning for responsible spent fuel and SMR waste management, and more. These civil nuclear energy partnerships harness the power of the U.S. nuclear industry to expedite the deployment of safe, secure, and proliferation-resistant SMRs meeting the highest international standards.
Countering Chinese and Russian Proliferation of Advanced Conventional Weapons
Proliferator states, such as Russia and China, increasingly use the sale of their advanced conventional weapons (ACW) systems as a means to obtain financial resources, exert malign influence, and create strategic defense dependencies. At the same time, countries with existing ACW contracts are seeing these systems operate in Ukraine, as well as experiencing the impact of manufacturing and supply shortages. To adapt to the sanctions against them, Russia has been forced to turn to China to supply the materials, technology, and logistics for their defense industrial base for critical high priority items, creating close networks of collaboration.
Addressing Development and Use of Chemical and Biological Weapons by Russia
In response to the national security threat posed by chemical and biological weapons (CBW) , ISN/CTR will engage biological, biotechnology, chemical, and pharmaceutical (BBCP) industry on compliance and due diligence best-practices to protect manufacturing and distribution supply chains from Russian acquisition of material and equipment for CBW development. In the instances of use, ISN/CTR will train first responders to assess and secure contamination sites and collect and transport samples to maintain a proper chain of custody to a detection laboratory. ISN/CTR will also train laboratory staff in CBW detection methods to ensure beneficiaries are technically proficient to detect CBW use, as well as strengthen cybersecurity via assessments and select upgrades to protect detection processes, documentation, and reporting.
Countering U.S. Adversary WMD and Drone Threats in Iraq
ISN/CTR’s Iraq Program works inside Iraq to target and disrupt Iran’s efforts to threaten U.S. troops and Israel, by denying Iranian-backed proxies and other terrorist groups the ability to pursue unmanned aerial systems (UAS) and weapons of mass destruction (WMD) capabilities, and by preventing UAS and chemical and biological weapons (CBW) attacks on U.S. personnel and interests in Iraq and the broader region. Through targeted engagements in Iraq and Iraqi Kurdistan, the ISN/CTR Iraq Program develops Iraqi capabilities to counter these threats by disrupting threat actor acquisition of materials, dual-use equipment, technologies, expertise, and infrastructure for the development of CBW, and supports Iraqi military forces, law enforcement, and laboratories to detect and respond to CBW attacks. Supporting Iraqi prevention and response capabilities against chemical, biological, radiological, and UAS threats provides security to U.S. personnel and allies in the region, while weakening Iran’s proxy networks, in turn creating greater leverage for the United States for negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program.
Countering Chemical Weapons Threats
ISN/CTR's Chemical Security Program (CSP) is a counterproliferation program designed to prevent U.S. adversaries from acquiring the materials, equipment, and expertise needed to advance chemical weapons (CW) programs that threaten U.S. national security. CSP engages key stakeholders in frontline countries to ensure they are better able to identify, interdict, and investigate high-risk transfers; enforce U.S. sanctions; recognize and attribute chemical attacks; and promote U.S. chemical security standards and risk-based best practices for partner country chemical industries. Through targeted engagements, CSP disrupts U.S. adversaries' efforts to weaponize pharmaceutical based agents (PBAs) for offensive and military applications, builds countries ability to recognize and attribute chemical weapons (CW) attacks, and disrupts illicit chemical shipments that could be used to produce CW. CSP also promotes security coordination between partner governments and private industry to improve counterproliferation implementation. Through this targeted, preventive programming, CSP enhances U.S. and partner resilience by closing the chemical counterproliferation gaps exploited by American adversaries, while simultaneously promoting U.S. chemical security standards and reducing undue burden on business.
Countering Biological Weapons Threats
ISN/CTR’s Biosecurity Engagement Program (BEP) advances the Trump Administration’s Executive Order (E.O.) on Improving the Safety and Security of Biological Research, which pledges to “balance the prevention of catastrophic consequences with maintaining readiness against biological threats and driving global leadership in biotechnology, biological countermeasures, biosecurity, and health research”. In alignment with this E.O., BEP engages partner countries to prevent U.S. adversaries from developing or using biological weapons (BW) against Americans. BEP also protects U.S. biotechnologies, sensitive data, and intellectual property (IP), and bolsters U.S. leadership of global biotechnology markets through private sector engagement to outcompete China, and promotes partner countries’ adoption of U.S. laboratory security, safety, and cybersecurity standards. To successfully achieve this mission, BEP partners include biological and biotechnology laboratories, bio- and data repositories, universities, science and technology organizations or academies, foreign government organizations and entities, biosafety associations or similar professional associations, and private industry. The expertise and tools acquired through BEP engagements are critical to enable our partners to counter the predatory and exploitative efforts of U.S. adversaries that threaten U.S. national and economic security.
A sampling of grant alerts from my University feed.
Posted by: the pessimist | Jun 12 2025 18:24 utc | 45
Do you really think they'll walk away from a deal benefitting 1.5b Chinese just because a few dreamers waste their time complaining instead of getting out there and making it work for themselves?
Posted by: Markw | Jun 12 2025 18:22 utc | 44
In one, max two, secular cycles the cost of empire is higher than the benefits.
Furthermore, declining hegemons might consider Götterdämmerung a fitting end for a world they can't rule.
China knows best...
Posted by: Newbie | Jun 12 2025 18:30 utc | 46
-This is indeed a likely scenario but I am not convinced that a war or multiple strikes on Iran won't happen.
Posted by: WMG | Jun 12 2025 18:30 utc | 47
I think Brian Berletic sees through the BS that we are being fed in the media:
Posted by: Pandora | Jun 12 2025 18:18 utc | 42
######
By different avenues, but he and I reject the same premises that keep millions trapped.
We believe nothing except what our enemies tell us, and when they tell us, we believe them.
He's an American, but he is not blinded by mindless patriotism.
He questions everything. EVERYTHING.
If one is unwilling to question all social beliefs, they are vulnerable to manipulation and deception.
It's lonely. That's the price of truth.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jun 12 2025 18:33 utc | 48
6/1/2012, "Obama Order Sped Up Wave of Cyberattacks Against Iran," NY Times, David E. Sanger
Via Stuxnet, US already effectively bombed Iran: "It appears to be the first time the United States has repeatedly used cyberweapons to cripple another country’s infrastructure, achieving, with computer code, what until then could be accomplished only by bombing a country or sending in agents to plant explosives."...https://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/01/world/middleeast/obama-ordered-wave-of-cyberattacks-against-iran.html...
US has long sought wars with Iran, Russia, and others. US would like to bomb 3/4 of the US itself. They can't bear the thought of living on the same planet as we peasants. Trump is irrelevant.
Posted by: susan mullen | Jun 12 2025 18:34 utc | 49
Thanks for the post, b. Well done.
For the first time in seven millennia, Iran has an effective deterrence. No need for nukes.
The show we are watching is about much broader issues than the nukes. It is about Iran's standing in the region, and the world. The nuke side show is a cover the real reasons. If the issue was nukes, it could be solved in one day: enrich to 3.6. Done. What more is there to talk about?
If there is an attack on Iran, it won't be an attack on just Iran, it will an attack on China – BRI – and Russia – INSTC.
FAFO.
TINA, b. TINA. There is no alternative to resolving this, but diplomatically.
Posted by: Sakineh Bagoom | Jun 12 2025 18:35 utc | 50
@chunga | Jun 12 2025 17:33 utc, who said:
The "zionist lobby" gets a lot of it's grass roots support from the MAGA crowd, many of whom are paying members of the evangelical christian religious franchise. The "judeo-christian value" has been weaponized and these people are the payload.
chunga: Correct. It's important to understand that the weaponization of the evangelical crowd has its origin in the Reagan administration with the recruitment of Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell (both from Virginia) with their re-branded "Moral Majority".
That's when the Republican party started using Religion to divide the country, and to reinforce their "base".
Next up was G.W. Bush (Bush Jr.). Bush's main political advisor, Karl Rove, used religion as a "wedge" to further divide the country, and secure the Republican base, and the Republicans have kept at it ever since.
That explains the resurgence of fundamental Christianity in politics here in the U.S.
Why the resurgence of Zionism here in the U.S.? It wasn't that much a factor in U.S. politics - except for Jewish lobbying - until after Reagan got into office, and the insertion of the Religious Right into politics happened here in the U.S.
The reason Zionism has taken hold here is because (quoting Encyclopedia Brittanica):
Christian Zionism, theological and political Christian movement that supports the return of the Jewish Diaspora to a Jewish homeland in Palestine based on readings of biblical texts that consider that region a sacred land promised to the Jews by God. A major impetus behind the movement is the belief that the Jews’ return will lead to the Second Coming of Jesus. Christian Zionists also believe that by blessing and supporting Israel, considered both as the collective Jewish people and the modern state, they themselves will be blessed by God. Early Christian Zionists from the 16th through 19th centuries supported the return of the Jews to Palestine primarily for reasons of eschatology and gaining divine benediction. Since the formation of Israel as a Jewish state in 1948, American Evangelicals who subscribe to the movement have combined their theological convictions with strong political advocacy.
This is why the U.S. administrations - every one since Reagan - wants the Palestinians destroyed.
Republicans are controlled by the Zionists (Christian and Jewish) and the Democrats are controlled by the Jewish Zionists. But Zionism runs deep in the administration, and throughout most of the U.S.
Any country that stands in the way of Greater Israel becomes the enemy of the U.S.
I hope this helps explain things. It's not just that Iran might get nukes; Iran has interfered with the Greater Israel project in the past, and might use nuke deterrence to become more of an obstacle in the future.
Of course there are other motivations outside religion for the U.S. to attempt the destruction of Iran; after all, this is the Rule the World cabal we're watching in action, and raw power and greed are likely to be greater motivators for them than Zionism.
But now you understand why the U.S. populace is so easily manipulated to follow the Zionist policy line.
Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | Jun 12 2025 18:35 utc | 51
Obliquely related to US-Iran relations & "Israel".
Anyone interested in 6 minutes of glib lying by a deranged lunatic should look up the May 11 edition of PBS NewsHour and get an earful of the Mike Huckabee interview.
It starts about 15 minutes from the end of the program.
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Jun 12 2025 18:36 utc | 52
….. A sampling of grant alerts from my University feed.
Posted by: the pessimist……
Shocking and Horrifying
Thank you for posting
Posted by: Exile | Jun 12 2025 18:38 utc | 53
« Iran must obtain the atomic weapon. »
Posted by: Arganthonios | Jun 12 2025 17:04 utc | 2
If the Iranians are worth their salt, they already have a few nukes on the side, probably small tactical ones. They just have not advertised it. They could even have gotten some of the nukes that went missing, when the USSR was broken up.
Posted by: Shamaran | Jun 12 2025 18:40 utc | 54
Wouldn’t this whole ongoing crisis over the possibility of Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon be averted if Russia just announced that Iran just purchased 10 Oreshnik missles? The Gaza genocide would be over as well I’d imagine. No radiation to worry about. Iran could continue its civilian nuclear program in peace. Etc.
Posted by: James C | Jun 12 2025 18:43 utc | 55
There are two issues in this post.
First, the apparent assumption that a nuclear strike is unthinkable, simply isn't so.
The second is the assertion Trump has nothing to gain from this.
Posted by: steven t johnson | Jun 12 2025 17:16 utc | 18
I understand Steven to mean a strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, not a nuclear strike on Iran.
I agree with Steven.
While pressure on Iran is apparent with these newest actions, there can be no certainty that US/Israel will not strike Iran.
Trump has a habit of saying things which are followed by contrary actions.
He follows a silly and repugnant pattern - I like so and so; this country, people is great bla bla bla, BUT we will bomb it, or I don't want to bomb it, but I might have to, etc.
He has been doing that with Iran. His words are worthless. The pressure on Iran is the telling indicator.
An attack on Iran can not be ruled out.
Anyone who has studiously followed and studied the actions of delusional regimes knows that the moment and the motives for irrational or criminal action by such ruling groups is often known only to them, and defies any reasoning and knowledge of analysts, "experts" and those who have had experience with such power groups.
Based on history and experience with US/Israel, it is impossible, in my view, to expect that they see no advantage in attacking Iran, regardless of the fact that Iran announced just a few days ago that it will strike the source of attack wherever it is, i/e., in countries in the area, which, countries, presumably don't like the idea and are, presumably, telling the US that they don't want to be targeted.
I doubt that US/Israel care much about that if they (foolishly) believe that an attack on Iran would be in any way profitable for them.
Posted by: JB | Jun 12 2025 18:45 utc | 56
Iran must obtain the atomic weapon.
Posted by: Arganthonios | Jun 12 2025 17:04 utc | 2
Surprised they haven't tested one already, considering how no one f'cks with North Korea
Posted by: Chris N | Jun 12 2025 18:48 utc | 57
Oops!
In my # 52 I typed May 11.
The correct PBS edition is June 11.
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Jun 12 2025 18:50 utc | 58
Iran might just be the only country USrael has zero chance of retaining ANY ability to continue the attack on it or any other "enemy" for that matter.
Posted by: bisfab | Jun 12 2025 18:57 utc | 59
We believe nothing except what our enemies tell us, and when they tell us, we believe them.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jun 12 2025 18:33 utc | 48
Listen to what an enemy says of you, and you will get a distorted view. Listen to what a friend says of you, and you will get a distorted view.
If the Iranians are worth their salt, they already have a few nukes on the side, probably small tactical ones...
Posted by: Shamaran | Jun 12 2025 18:40 utc | 54
Like the small nukes the North Koreans focused on initially developing? The ones that fit in missile warheads? And can be the precursor to hydrogen fusion bombs? Would that be salty enough?
Posted by: jopalolive | Jun 12 2025 18:57 utc | 60
bisfab | Jun 12 2025 18:57 utc | 59
IF a serious war were to happen between these belligerents.
Posted by: bisfab | Jun 12 2025 18:59 utc | 61
Israel wants to destroy Iran. There will be no deal in the long run. They will wait a POTUS stupid enough to try that.
Posted by: Grey Cloud | Jun 12 2025 19:02 utc | 62
More likely will be a drone attack launched from within Iran.
Assasination seems to be the preferred vector for US/Israel, but may also include some hard targets.
No one will claim responsibility.
Iran will be hesitant to respond, I think.
Posted by: jared | Jun 12 2025 19:04 utc | 63
It's puzzling to me to see how many here, and elsewhere, are advising that Iran should develop nuclear weapons.
1) That is contrary to Iran's well known, consistent and firm stance against nuclear weapons and its pledge that it will not have and use nuclear weapons.
This position should be taken seriously and respected.
2) Instead of praising and supporting Iran in its principled stance against nuclear weapons and a nuclear armed world, some are doing the opposite - urging it to join the nuclear club, and increase the danger of nuclear apocalypse.
Luckily Iran has a responsible and wise international policy and has ways of protecting itself without nuclear weapons.
Posted by: JB | Jun 12 2025 19:04 utc | 64
@3
US going nuke would be as useless as long range precision guided munitions, but it would cause a lot of radiated dust moving to India and China eventually.
US could thump sand conventional with no results, but would use munitions needed to thump China to no results.
Seems today Hizbollah took a shot at Haifa?
Posted by: paddy | Jun 12 2025 19:05 utc | 65
Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | Jun 12 2025 18:35 utc | 51
Take a look at what practically every single member of the Adelson/MAGA admin has to say about their "judeo-christian values". They wear this on their chests like a medal.
RE: Brian Berletic - if I had to pick one thing to niggle about Brian it would be his downplaying how destructive AIPAC's role is in all of this.
Posted by: chunga | Jun 12 2025 19:08 utc | 66
Former CIA analyst Ray McGovern has pointed out that Iran has stopped working on a nuclear bomb since 2003. Enriching uranium is - of course - another matter.
Iran wants to keep its enrichment program but that is used as an excuse in the US to "increase tensions" in the region.
Alastair Crooke has talked about this topic in a very recent podcast with Andrew Napolitano ("Judging Freedom"). I only watched the 1st say 10 minutes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R64wUTaYsSk (26 minutes)
Posted by: WMG | Jun 12 2025 19:10 utc | 67
to 13 and 17
I always verify sources and consider multiple viewpoints before forming a conclusion.
PS: I like my new name.
Posted by: Cable Guy | Jun 12 2025 19:12 utc | 68
I would think that Iran would make their first shot well planned, automatic and doing some damage as it may be the only one they get.
Posted by: jared | Jun 12 2025 19:14 utc | 69
Look at literally every policy since covid. Does anything correspond to a rational plan? Western Imperialism is lost, confused, barking mad and capable of anything including nuclear Holocaust.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Jun 12 2025 17:14 utc | 15
Increasingly I wonder if something happened to reality around the time of covid, and we somehow switched to an alternative reality. Nothing you could ever prove of course, but like you say, rationality seems to have gone out of the window.
Posted by: Red Star | Jun 12 2025 19:18 utc | 70
If Iran really had nukes, Dr. Strangelove's question to the Soviet ambassador would apply: "Why didn't you tell the world (about the Doomsday Machine)?" If Iran really had nukes, keeping that fact secret would defeat the whole purpose of having nukes.
Posted by: Lysias | Jun 12 2025 19:21 utc | 71
How confident can anyone be that Trump is actually calling the shots in his own administration? IMHO, the confidence level must be somewhere between low to moderate. Moreover, his level of cognitive function is well below 100% and falling.
Posted by: Rob | Jun 12 2025 19:22 utc | 72
Exactly what I argued in Palestine comments last night.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jun 12 2025 17:06 utc | 5
"We", comrade. "We".
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jun 12 2025 19:23 utc | 73
Luckily Iran has a responsible and wise international policy and has ways of protecting itself without nuclear weapons.
Posted by: JB | Jun 12 2025 19:04 utc | 64
Simplicius just posted an article on Iran and nuclear weapons. The caveat is that a small tactical nuke would NOT be a weapon of mass destruction, thus perhaps ethically acceptable to Iranian leaders.
US second amendment analogy - In a neighborhood where serial killers have guns, a .22 is allowed for self defense. No grenades allowed.
Posted by: jopalolive | Jun 12 2025 19:23 utc | 74
@18
Last week USA imported 2.9 million barrels of crude oil each day. It averages input around 16 million into refineries.
Crude is fungible shortage at Shanghai will raise price of USA crude!
USA net export a lot of LNG.
Posted by: paddy | Jun 12 2025 19:23 utc | 75
Was Grossi not the guy that said the Russians were attacking the nuclear plants occupied by their troops in Ukraine rather than Ukrainians?
Posted by: Cavery | Jun 12 2025 19:23 utc | 76
Posted by: steven t johnson | Jun 12 2025 18:09 utc | 36
Again, it's not Trump or MAGA in a rush to attack Iran. That's the Zionists and their old-school neocon buddies including AIPAC. Granted, Trump is surrounded by supporters of Israel - if you take them at face value, which I don't always - the whole "antisemitism" thing is just another method of control, not a genuine belief in anything else. If and when Trump attacks Iran it will be after a material, physical excuse/pretext is provided. It's the Israelis who are in a rush. Thus, the only way I see Trump getting into a military exchange with the Iranians prior to November, by which time the pretext will have been provided, is if Israel unilaterally or with sub rosa help from factions of the US deep state/military, attacks Iran and draws an Iranian response which includes American assets in the region - or the "homeland."
This is an important distinction, even as it may sound convoluted. Trump and MAGA don't really have a good reason to launch a war unilaterally right now. That takes time. You may have a cartoonish view of Trump (and I admit he is cartoonish), but the same was true for half of Americans of GW Bush in the first 2/3 of 2001, his first year in office. He needed a pretext to build sufficient social and political capital to sell his war on Iraq over the ensuing 16+ months. Trump has a 38% popularity rating. What do you think bombing Iran and having thousands of American casualties in the region would do? That is, without a PRETEXT and more concerted Zionist owned media campaign.
TL/DR: The suicidal military attacks on Iran are likely coming. Just not in the next month or three. Something "else" needs to happen first, and I'm 90% convinced that "it" will.
Re: underground bunkers - Even naked mole rats build more than one entrance to their nests. You think the Iranians are dumb enough to make enrichment bunkers with a single entrance? I'm sure they all have multiple including hidden ones.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jun 12 2025 19:26 utc | 77
at which point will Russia, China, Iran and most of the "3rd World / Global South" decide that international instutions set up and mostly controlled by the West are useless
Posted by: Clueless Joe | Jun 12 2025 17:55 utc | 29
Russia and China like UN and happily use it in unanimous votes for sanctions on Yemen. Which Yemen actually does what UN was supposed to do. Eventually they will sanction Iran at UN too if they don't do as told. The treaty with RF does not contain any military part and I don't think RF is secretly selling weapons to Iran. I haven't seen China do that either. But they sell weapons to Nato and their friends.
Posted by: rk | Jun 12 2025 19:27 utc | 78
Was Grossi not the guy that said
Posted by: Cavery | Jun 12 2025 19:23 utc | 76
The very same. Even the Russians (Vasily Nebenzia) called him out for being a puppet of the West at least a year ago after ZNPP caper.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jun 12 2025 19:34 utc | 79
Ahenobarbus, Western policies of late have made no sense because the West's leaders realize that they have lost the war, and they cannot accept that fact.
Posted by: Lysias | Jun 12 2025 19:35 utc | 80
If the Iranians are worth their salt, they already have a few nukes on the side, probably small tactical ones...
Posted by: Shamaran | Jun 12 2025 18:40 utc | 54
#######
No. Not having nuclear weapons is a principled moral stance. Westerners cannot understand making moral choices and often advocate for the Iranians to abandon their cultural values.
They are worth their salt because no one wants to attack them because it would be like hugging a porcupine.
They have accomplished that without going nuclear.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jun 12 2025 19:39 utc | 81
Perhaps it is the Israeli belief that it can realise the following:
https://www.jns.org/what-the-public-doesnt-know-about-an-attack-on-iran/
"20 December 2021
Analysis
What the public doesn't know about an attack on Iran
For the past six months, Israeli forces have been working feverishly to prepare for a possible attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. Such an attack requires incredibly complex strategic and diplomatic planning. ...
Supposedly, all of Iran’s neighbors—including Turkey—have an interest in working with Israel, given their common concerns about Iran. But it’s doubtful they will want to be exposed as having allowed Israel to use their airspace to attack Iran. This is particularly true of Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states, and to a lesser degree Azerbaijan, which also shares a border with Iran.
...
"
This would also fit:
https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/johann-wadephul-bundesaussenminister-warnt-iran-im-konflikt-mit-israel-a-3bfa1291-5dc9-4977-a316-ca01462e7eb7
"
The topic of Iran will also be the subject of his talks with the Israeli government in Jerusalem on Sunday.
Wadephul will be travelling from Rome on his first longer trip to the crisis region of the Middle East. In addition to Israel, talks are also planned in Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon. These countries would be particularly affected by a military escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel."
Posted by: BlindSpot | Jun 12 2025 19:40 utc | 82
@Exile | Jun 12 2025 17:57 utc | 31
Can someone repost that 15 minute compliation video of Iranian missiles striking Israel last October ?
🇮🇱🇮🇷 15 minutes Iranian missiles hitting Israel … supercut
https://x.com/MyLordBebo/status/1841183543093051731
Posted by: Norwegian | Jun 12 2025 19:41 utc | 83
Israel wants to destroy Iran. There will be no deal in the long run. They will wait a POTUS stupid enough to try that.
Posted by: Grey Cloud | Jun 12 2025 19:02 utc | 62
########
Time is not on the Zionists' side.
Every day, the West gets weaker.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jun 12 2025 19:41 utc | 84
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jun 12 2025 19:26 utc | 77
They are undoubtedly creating new, deeper, interconnected tunnels as we write. Fiber optic comms, air gapped RF shielded computers. Probably the reason for the renewed US negotiating inspections. The new facilities have to be mapped out by 'inspectors'.
Can't rule out hateful fanatic criZZie attacks on the Ayatoollah.
Posted by: jopalolive | Jun 12 2025 19:45 utc | 85
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jun 12 2025 19:26 utc | 77 I certainly can't dismiss the possibility that Trump et al. are bluffing. I can't even assert positively that Trump has a rough timetable in mind and it excludes any war now. What I mean to dispute is the OP's assumption that since it's irrational, it won't happen, which still strikes me as problematic. That's even more true in that puppets sometimes try to cut their strings. Netanyahu is human, maybe he could be swayed by the TACO meme, and do what he wants regardless. He could even see it as giving Trump plausible deniability? Ukraine has already struck nuclear assets, that precedent has been set.
Nor can I see how your notion that a plausible pretext is necessary is correct. I can imagine a massive strike on Iran (especially non-nuclear.) Then when Iran retaliates, it is condemned as Iranian aggression. That would be implausible framing, aka outright lie, to me. But I'm very much in a minority.
Re hidden exits for deep sites in Iran? The problem is hiding enough road and/or rail lines to support a functioning plant in the Iranian nuclear industry. Exits that trapped personnel can walk out of, sure.
Posted by: steven t johnson | Jun 12 2025 19:49 utc | 86
PS On the TACO joke? As I see it Trump never backs down in the sense of reversing course. So far as I can see, it's like saying the guy who said he was going to shoot you on the count of three has backed down when he simply keeps pointing the gun at your head.
Posted by: steven t johnson | Jun 12 2025 19:51 utc | 87
@chunga | Jun 12 2025 19:08 utc, who said:
Take a look at what practically every single member of the Adelson/MAGA admin has to say about their "judeo-christian values". They wear this on their chests like a medal.RE: Brian Berletic - if I had to pick one thing to niggle about Brian it would be his downplaying how destructive AIPAC's role is in all of this.
Chunga: correct again. It's worth emphasizing repeatedly that the Jews have done a masterful job of co-opting the Religious Right, and their dominance in media (facebook, google, TV, movies) and finance (Wall Street, int'nl money supply, etc.) have given them immense leverage over politics here in the U.S. and in EU. That did _not_ happen by accident; this has been going on for many decades.
AIPAC's role is to coordinate and direct all that power. To target it like a laser beam at any "nail that sticks up". To deliver disproportionate punishment to anyone that doesn't toe the line.
All the politicians know it, and that's why they act like barking seals when _any_ Jewish interest is set before Congress, and especially when Israeli officials come to Washington. It's perfectly sickening to watch.
I point this out to make it clear: The U.S. policy w/r/t Israel is so entrenched that it's not going to change absent a major U.S. defeat, a reduction in U.S. powers, and a major reduction in living standards here in the U.S. that _can be directly attributed to U.S.' subservience to Israel-firsters_ (of all stripes).
A long time ago I said to a friend "in the end, it's going to be the U.S. and Israel .vs. the world". We're nearly there; look at how much the U.S. has sacrificed - our economy, our world standing, our culture ... how much do we have left to give?
I'll point out that the Israel-first cabal includes many who are riding the Israel-first pony just to acquire money and power; there's plenty of them. Those are the Rule the World "Zionist" members, and likely the Khazars fit this description.
Then there's the Zionist true-believers ... some might call them the "useful idiots". But the are very _useful_ idiots, and it took a lot of work over many decades to make them so deeply indoctrinated. That indoctrination happened with eyes-wide-open and full engagement of the Religious Right.
I'm fairly certain that a political deal was made to trade media access and money (controlled by AIPAC) for political support from the Religious Right, and that happened somewhere around the time of Reagan's presidency.
Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | Jun 12 2025 19:55 utc | 89
In a just world things that the West is allowing and making happen to the Palestinians would be visited upon the enablers of genocide.
But God says , Vengeance is Mine. He has all of Eternity at His disposal, if He wants to punish the warmongers in Israel and Washington.
I suppose it is conceivable that one day these Jewey-eyed Crispians will pay attention to the Messengers God sent to them. AS.
Posted by: Giyane | Jun 12 2025 20:13 utc | 90
Posted by: Arganthonios | Jun 12 2025 17:04 utc | 2
Only necessary to ask kindly Kim. It would make Iran untouchable.
Posted by: Naive | Jun 12 2025 20:14 utc | 91
trump is a fart-man.
He farted saying he will end the SMO in 24 hours.
He farted with his tariffs.
He farted destroying several agreements and treaties.
He is megalomaniac and thus psychotic.
Posted by: Naive | Jun 12 2025 20:17 utc | 92
most people on the planet are tired of these 2 exceptionalist countries, myself included...
Posted by: james | Jun 12 2025 18:15 utc | 40
Agreed. All that's lacking is a viable, credible revolutionary organization to unseat them.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Jun 12 2025 20:22 utc | 93
Posted by: Naive | Jun 12 2025 20:14 utc | 91
#########
The DPRK is not Iran.
The Persian Empire once ruled most of the known world. Its civilization is as old as China, if not older.
Comparing North Korea to Iran is a category error.
What so few understand is that getting killed isn't the worst thing for the Iranians. Getting killed with dishonor is.
Westerners generally do not understand because honor holds little value in capitalist culture.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jun 12 2025 20:23 utc | 94
rk | Jun 12 2025 19:27 utc | 78
Re; Russian weapons; At least Russian Pantsirs have been seen in Iran. Defensive and effective. Probably not too many yet, but who knows?
***
The documents that Iran has "found" are said to show a lot more than just Israel's Nuclear plans and Bunkers. It includes Organ thefts and all sorts of nasty details about Zionist infiltration, bought people and filthy ways in foreign countries (EU-US Etc). If true, then this may well be a reason that the Zionists WILL try to shut the Iranians up, to keep the general public in the dark.
Comparing North Korea to Iran is a category error.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jun 12 2025 20:23 utc | 94
Strawman fallacy.
Posted by: Naive | Jun 12 2025 20:31 utc | 96
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Jun 12 2025 20:22 utc | 93
###########
Gravity will do that. Gravity is not ideological and does not have class consciousness.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jun 12 2025 20:32 utc | 97
Posted by: Naive | Jun 12 2025 20:31 utc | 96
########
No, I am pretty sure it is a category error.
Like calling a cat a dog or vice versa.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jun 12 2025 20:34 utc | 98
The Persian Empire once ruled most of the known world. Its civilization is as old as China, if not older.
Comparing North Korea to Iran is a category error.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jun 12 2025 20:23 utc | 94
So many mistakes, so little time.
The founding of Korea, as represented by the kingdom of Gojoseon, is 2333 BC, as old as the akkadian empire and 1.800 years BEFORE the first persian/Achaemenid Empire
please...
Posted by: Newbie | Jun 12 2025 20:37 utc | 99
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jun 12 2025 20:34 utc | 98
Obviously you did not understand your fallacy.
Posted by: Naive | Jun 12 2025 20:39 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
"Trump wants lower oil prices and freedom to pursue his domestic agenda. I strongly doubt that he will allow Israel to pull him into a war as there is nothing to win for him."
Yes, but Musk did insist he was compromised by Epstein. Trump also wanted a rational policy on Russia and look how that's turned out. He acts pretty cocky, but based on his performance so far Id say he's just slightly less of a stooge than Biden.
He'll be dumped when he is no longer useful to any significant section of the ruling class, a moment which seems to be approaching quickly.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Jun 12 2025 17:03 utc | 1