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- Iranian strike at Israel's electric infrastructure.
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June 15, 2025
Tic-Toc Thread On The War On Iran
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Posted by: Ornot | Jun 15 2025 13:45 utc | 1
Excerpted from Pakistan’s Dawn:
‘Pakistan will safeguard Iran’s interests’: Khawaja Asif
Separately, Defence Minister Khawaja Asif on Saturday said that Pakistan will “safeguard Iran’s interests” amid exchanges of missiles between Tehran and Israel, state media Radio Pakistan reported.
Condemning the Israeli attack on Pakistan’s “neighbour and fraternal country” during a session of parliament, the defence minister urged that a meeting of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) be convened to launch an initiative that “manifests the unity of [the] Muslim Ummah”.
“Pakistan stands firm on its traditional stance, as it has neither recognised Israel nor established relations with it,” Asif said. “Pakistan will safeguard Iran’s interests at all international fora, including the United Nations.”
https://www.dawn.com/news/1917111/pakistan-stands-in-complete-solidarity-with-iran-amid-conflict-with-israel-pm-shehbaz
Posted by: too scents | Jun 15 2025 13:48 utc | 2
Does anyone have links to any maps of what has been hit? In Israel and/,or Iran?
Posted by: team10tim | Jun 15 2025 13:49 utc | 3
@3 too scents
Updated to (just now):
Journalist Youssef Fares
“Al Mayadeen : The Pakistani Senate unanimously approves a resolution supporting Iran in its confrontation with Israeli aggression.”
Posted by: Ornot | Jun 15 2025 13:54 utc | 4
Xi told VVP : “We are going to see changes not seen in a century”…
A bit of karma and justice in this Westoxic swamp would feel sweet…
Posted by: Asian Frog | Jun 15 2025 14:01 utc | 5
Scott Ritter claims Iran has likely lost most of it’s ballistic missiles. I wonder if this is true
Posted by: Timurid | Jun 15 2025 14:07 utc | 6
The Cargolux plane has crossed Iran without landing.
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Jun 15 2025 14:11 utc | 7
I quote another above because it is my sentiments too: “US has lost its tiny bit of credibility … negotiations untrustworthy, treaties broken and mediation utterly biased. A true pariah state as I have written some years ago.”
America is a Rogue and Terrorist state. I was MAGA but I have since taken off my Trump bumper stickers. Trump was duplicitous with Iran.
I want Iran to blow Israel off the map!!! Free Palestine!!!
Posted by: wlindsaywheeler | Jun 15 2025 14:15 utc | 8
Iran has likely lost most of it’s ballistic missiles. I wonder if this is true
Posted by: Timurid | Jun 15 2025 14:07 utc | 7
Ritter is on crack this time. Way past his shelf life.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jun 15 2025 14:15 utc | 9
Here is an important video from Professor Marandi and dear Nima:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7bzgC-alNlo
Posted by: juliania | Jun 15 2025 14:21 utc | 10
In America, a lot of people are in church right now lighting candles, drinking blood, and praying for monsters. It must be so weird.
Posted by: chunga | Jun 15 2025 14:18 utc | 10
I would never set foot in a church that has an Israeli flag next to the altar.
Posted by: Joe Turner | Jun 15 2025 14:24 utc | 11
The Cargolux plane has crossed Iran without landing.
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Jun 15 2025 14:11 utc | 7
Ghost signal. Last seen turkmenistan
the cargolux went dark because:
H0. it was taking chinese AD and stopped pretending close to the border already heading for khomeini airport
H1. it was taking NK nukes and stopped pretending close to the border already heading for khomeini airport
H2. Same as H0. but shot down as soon as heading for khomeini airport confirmed. Diplomatic shit is heavy on this one
H3. Same as H1. but shot down as soon as heading for khomeini airport confirmed. Broken arrow and god knows what more
Posted by: Newbie | Jun 15 2025 14:26 utc | 12
Reuters: At least 14 nuclear scientists have been killed in Iran so far – including in car bomb explosions.
Iran should start killing the entity’s scientists too.
Posted by: Georgie | Jun 15 2025 14:26 utc | 13
Iran has likely lost most of it’s ballistic missiles. I wonder if this is true
Posted by: Timurid | Jun 15 2025 14:07 utc | 7
—
Maybe many, but not most? A lot of this has been following the Hez playbook, and many, if not most of their ‘secret’ missile storage sites were infiltrated and taken out in the final snookering.
Posted by: freedom fritos | Jun 15 2025 14:28 utc | 14
MoA Geopolitics Quiz #0001:
Question (10 points, 1 per material fact):
Given the time israel took to reach a ceasefire (or not) with Hezbollah, the Houthi, Hamas during the hostilities of 2024-2025, how long will israel (and it’s active allies) take to reach either a) comprehensive defeat of Iran b) a temporary freeze in the hostilities c) an indefinite cessation of hostilities.
Take into account the following factors in your reasoning:
1. The relative strength and size of Iran vs. Hezbollah
2. The logistic challenges that will accumulate over the coming 1 – 3 weeks.
3. Iran’s capacity to deal with internal threats currently emerging.
As supporting research, consider Garland Nixon’s review of situation at day #2 of the conflict:
TRUMP’S WAR DAY 2 – ISRAELI INFRASTRUCTURE TARGETED – IRON/GOLDEN DOME FAILS – TRUMP GETS COLD FEET
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jun 15 2025 14:28 utc | 15
Trump was duplicitous with Iran.
Posted by: wlindsaywheeler | Jun 15 2025 14:15 utc | 8
—————
Actually Trump’s been saying since his first term that he wanted to go to war with Iran. I didn’t think he was actually that foolish.
But it does seem like the quickest way to take out Israel.
Posted by: financial matters | Jun 15 2025 14:30 utc | 16
Posted by: Newbie | Jun 15 2025 14:26 utc | 13
I watched it cross the Iraqi border. I guess it’s possible it turned round …
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Jun 15 2025 14:32 utc | 17
@b
…desalination plants compromised
…Rafah crossing breached
…West Bank overthrown
Posted by: freedom fritos | Jun 15 2025 14:32 utc | 18
Posted by: Timurid | Jun 15 2025 14:07 utc | 6
What is ‘lost’ even supposed to mean? Lost in Tel Aviv or what?
I rarely listen to stuff with Ritter. Might be my personal spleen but he reminds me of the quintessential murican burger who supposedly found his moral conscience and thus sides with superior people.
Last thing i heard from him was when he spoke to Nima and insisted that ‘Iran must not be allowed to have nuclear weapons’.
Weird fella.
Posted by: kspr | Jun 15 2025 14:34 utc | 19
Posted by: kspr | Jun 15 2025 14:34 utc | 21
[…] thus sides with inferior people.
Was what i wanted to write. Take it as freudian typo.
Posted by: kspr | Jun 15 2025 14:36 utc | 20
Posted by: Timurid | Jun 15 2025 14:07 utc | 6 “Scott Ritter claims Iran has likely lost most of it’s ballistic missiles. I wonder if this is true”
Ritter’s track record is not very good. After all, according to him the war in Ukraine was over years ago with a Russian victory.
The choke point with Iran’s missile launchers is likely the number of TELs available near the missile magazines. Iran was estimated to have a hundreds TELs. All of which can’t launch the larger missiles.
I’ve also seen numbers tossed around for the number of missiles that Iran has. Maybe 2,000 to 3,000? But not all of those can reach Israel.
So far, the numbers I’ve seen for a single missile salvo are max of 100? And some are half that? What numbers have others seen?
Is Iran planning a very long war? If so that could account for the lower count than in the previous exchanges last year. Or has Israel caused enough damage the numbers that we have seen is all Iran can generate right now.
Posted by: ed4 | Jun 15 2025 14:38 utc | 21
This is a serious concern:
The Iraqi army has moved its 96K6 Pantsir-S1 anti-aircraft missile and gun systems to the borders with Iran.
It is not entirely clear what role the command assigned them, whether it was helping Iran from IDF raids, or covering American facilities.
@Slavyangrad
Whose side are they on?
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jun 15 2025 14:39 utc | 22
https://x.com/MenchOsint/status/1934239719640232068
MenchOsint @MenchOsint
No footage yet 🤔 seems like the israelis are now respecting their army and not taking photos
https://x.com/georgegalloway/status/1933666873314566425
George Galloway @georgegalloway
The Israeli armed forces should remove their criminal government from power
https://x.com/caitoz/status/1934078474672890087
Caitlin Johnstone @caitoz
This was all so, so avoidable. The US and Israel sprinted straight at this war, cruising past off-ramp after off-ramp. The Iran nuclear deal was working as intended. Israel could have negotiated an agreement with the Palestinians, thereby cooling things off with both the Palestinian resistance and with Hezbollah long before October 7. The US empire didn’t have to insist on hegemonic control over the entire region.
There was no good reason there couldn’t have been peace. It was right there, ripe for the picking. Begging to be picked. Practically leaping into our hands. It was only by the most tenacious of efforts by the very worst people in the world that we wound up here. It is only by those same efforts by those same terrible people that we continue along this horrifying trajectory instead of taking the final off-ramp.
Peace is still there for the taking. It’s being actively sabotaged by the very worst among us.
Posted by: michaelj72 | Jun 15 2025 14:39 utc | 23
Re: Timurid #7,
Ritter is wrong that Iran has lost most of its’ ballistic missiles, as of yesterday 22 of the 24 (known) Iranian missile bases were fully operational. Even with the confirmed involvement of British and US air planes in firing missiles at Iran, it’s apparent that there simply are not enough airframes available to Israel to hit all possible strategic targets in a single attack or even over several days. Netanyahu admitted as much at the start of the attack, when he said that the attacks will “continue for 2 weeks or how ever long it takes”. The US Shock and Awe style of conflict either wins in the first 48 hours or it loses when the conflict switches to a war of attrition. If the Iranians wanted they could probably launch a single barrage of 600 or more missiles (this is what Israel was estimating a week ago), however doing so would reveal hidden launch sites to American satellite reconnaissance, who would obviously pass that information along to Israel for targeting and the Iranians could not defend all of these site. So what the Iranians are doing is an attrition strategy of launching “limited” salvos of 200-300 missiles while setting up decoy missile bases for the Americans to target instead to prolong the conflict.
Remember for the past 2 years we’ve been constantly told that US/NATO/Israel collective military arms reserves have fallen to critical levels supporting the Ukrainian war with the Russia, the Yemenese bombing campaign, the Genocide in Gaza. Now, either those stories were all bunk to conceal a massive arms build up for a war with Iran that lasts 6 months to a year – OR – the collective West really does have an arms shortage and they cant maintain a missile campaign vs Iran that lasts more than a month or two (in which case, Trump will declare a unilateral ceasefire within a few weeks and try to walk things back to what they were before Israel started the war).
Posted by: Kadath | Jun 15 2025 14:40 utc | 24
It seems as if it is physically impossible for Jews to fight normally. They can only triumph over weaker opponents or by using dirty, insidious tricks. But in open battle, they have absolutely no chance. The opposite of chivalrous behavior is Jewish behavior.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/131276?single
Posted by: Apollyon | Jun 15 2025 14:46 utc | 25
Posted by: Newbie | Jun 15 2025 14:26 utc | 13
I watched it cross the Iraqi border. I guess it’s possible it turned round …
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Jun 15 2025 14:32 utc | 19
Also saw, a EXTRAPOLATED path
here’s the story
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/lx-scv#3ace6546
Posted by: Newbie | Jun 15 2025 14:50 utc | 27
https://x.com/Pataramesh/status/1934095463101223344
Patarames @Pataramesh
Time to explain some realities:
– Israeli missile interceptors stocks & sensor performance will degrade over time
– Iranian missile bases & launchers safety protocols will get more loose once the in-situ sabotage assets like OWA- & FPV-drones/ATGMs are found or depleted
https://x.com/Pataramesh/status/1934095466150424865
Since Israel hit civilian targets at the start of the attack, Iran will use heavy missiles like Emad to hit targets, even in urban regions.
Once Arrow-3 and THAAD are exhausted by trying to catch hypersonics like Kheybar-Shekan-2/Fattah-1 via multiple launches against single missiles
➡️ The gates are open for heavy Emad hits
https://x.com/Pataramesh/status/1934095469711421750
And up until here, there is no talk about higher end even heavier warhead missiles like the Khorramshahr family
In comparison, Israel relies primarily on OWA-type drones to hit soft targets.
The psychological effects of seeing a burning oil depot are very different to experiencing a blast of a 1-ton warhead at mach 6
https://x.com/Pataramesh/status/1934095472978776349
It was a quite irrational, even desperate move by Netanyahu to attack civilian targets and enable Iran to reciprocate
Getting the U.S. involved sounds hence like a good explanation for such a irrational move
➡️ Iran’s missile salvos can’t be stopped anytime soon by the IDF
Posted by: michaelj72 | Jun 15 2025 14:50 utc | 28
Current tic-toc round:
Iranian strike at Israel’s electric infrastructure.
Israeli strike at …
…
Of course peace! Any doubt?
Iran and Israel should make a deal, and will make a deal, just like I got India and Pakistan to make, in that case by using TRADE with the United States to bring reason, cohesion, and sanity into the talks with two excellent leaders who were able to quickly make a decision and STOP! Also, during my first term, Serbia and Kosovo were going at it hot and heavy, as they have for many decades, and this long time conflict was ready to break out into WAR. I stopped it (Biden has hurt the longer term prospects with some very stupid decisions, but I will fix it, again!). Another case is Egypt and Ethiopia, and their fight over a massive dam that is having an effect on the magnificent Nile River. There is peace, at least for now, because of my intervention, and it will stay that way! Likewise, we will have PEACE, soon, between Israel and Iran! Many calls and meetings now taking place. I do a lot, and never get credit for anything, but that’s OK, the PEOPLE understand. MAKE THE MIDDLE EAST GREAT AGAIN!
Posted by: Newbie | Jun 15 2025 14:52 utc | 29
Dilplomatic support to Iran by Putin is absolutely necessary. He is hanging Iran out to dry when they are facing an existential threat which could lead to a nuclear war. This gives credence to the rumors that Putin is compromised by Russian Zionists.
Posted by: Deniz | Jun 14 2025 18:54 utc | 306
Of course he is. It is now becoming clearer why Russia “helped” Syria to give up on their chemical weapons deterrence stockpile. Virtually as soon as Assad fell, the Empire launched a full scale assault against Iran. In other words, an attack on Iran was not possible as long as Syria was standing. That’s why Assad had to go. To everyone’s surprise, Assad held for 13 years, much longer than anyone had expected.
Now, while apparently in the middle of a war against the Empire, Pootin talks with Trump and offers to “help” with the Iranian nuclear program. It’s clear as day what this means.
Besides, if Pakistan has a bomb, how is it unislamic? And why isn’t Pakistan under the wall of UN sanctions for possession of illegal nuclear weapons?
Posted by: abc | Jun 15 2025 14:55 utc | 30
How is USReal still bombing Southern Lebanon, Gaza & Yemen?
Reports from Al-Manar indicate nothing has slowed USReal attacks.
Posted by: Trubind1 | Jun 15 2025 14:56 utc | 31
Scott Ritter claims Iran has likely lost most of it’s ballistic missiles. I wonder if this is true
Posted by: Timurid | Jun 15 2025 14:07 utc | 6
————-
maybe, but Russia lost most of its tanks, a million of its soldiers, most of its standing in the world as a capable military power.
What Russia didn’t lose is its clown leader Putin
Posted by: aaaa | Jun 15 2025 14:56 utc | 32
This is a rather odd war: long distance, virtually soldier free. I initially wrote “a new kind of war”, but I’m sure there are historical precedents which our resident historians can appraise us of. My question is: when does one country or the other begin its “unprovoked, full-scale invasion” of the other? I’m struggling to work out how this war can be brought to a conclusion. How on earth can Israel (population tiny) invade Iran (population quite a lot)? There would be no one left at home to keep killing the Palestinians. How does this end? Israel claims a win and stops bombing? Iran may not agree – then what?
Is this merely a ruse to give the USA an excuse to invade (assuming they even want to), or is it Israel’s last roll of the dice to keep Netanyahu in power? Who is wagging whom? Short of extensive nuking of Iran, I can’t see an offramp that makes sense to have started all of this, other than Netanyahu arranging for Iran to kill Israeli people just so he can stay in power. Given how bloodthirsty the average Israeli is, that is perfectly believable, but for the same reason may misfire for Netanyahu.
Did they really start all this based on regime change for the win? Even after the Ukraine fiasco? Brave choice if that is the case.
Apologies for musing out loud.
As an aside, can we all refer to Israel’s attack as “full-scale and unprovoked”, purely for ironic purposes?
Posted by: Occasional poster | Jun 15 2025 14:57 utc | 33
3 power stations ✅
2 rafineries ✅✅
1 big airport
…. Orot Rabin (Hebrew: אורות רבין, lit. Rabin Lights) is a power station located on the Mediterranean coast in Hadera….
As of 2022 it is Israel’s largest power station and contains six thermal generation units capable of producing a total of 2.59GW of electricity using coal as the primary fuel. …
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orot_Rabin
Posted by: Exile | Jun 15 2025 15:00 utc | 34
Of course peace! Any doubt?
Iran and Israel should make a deal, and will make a deal, just like I got India and Pakistan to make, …
Posted by: Newbie | Jun 15 2025 14:52 utc | 31
Jokes aside, how do they walk back from this one?
A peace deal leaves Iran the winner – basically managing to beat off NATO, USUKIS and the gulf slave monarchies alone.
The Empire can’t allow that to stand. Losing economically to China, militarily to Russia and Iran, geopolitically to BRCS …
I can’t see a peace deal unless It’s because israel is brought to the edge of the cliff of extinction.
Even after that, how does the Empire handle the loss of face?
It looks like Trump set the middle east on a one way trip to hell.
No return tickets.
No refunds.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jun 15 2025 15:04 utc | 35
A nice piece of work by Abdaljawad Omar at Mondoweiss poses the crucial question:
Will Trump Chicken Out?
Indeed, the term coined by his critics — TACO, “Trump Always Chickens Out” — was circulated among financiers and neoconservatives not simply as mockery, but as diagnosis. It captured the oscillation between bluster and retreat, between the rhetoric of dominance and the impulse to recoil when the cost became tangible.
Such moments expose the uneasy alloy at the heart of Trump’s foreign policy: a mix of instinctual nationalism, imperial nostalgia, and tactical indecision. The result is a posture that often courts confrontation without preparation, and retreats from entanglement without resolution. If Israel’s strike on Iran was meant to provoke, it also tested the elasticity of Trump’s foreign policy instincts — and the contradictions that arise when strategic ambiguity meets theatrical resolve.
https://mondoweiss.net/2025/06/israel-started-a-war-with-iran-but-it-doesnt-know-how-it-ends/
Posted by: Aleph_Null | Jun 15 2025 15:06 utc | 36
2.59 GW seems to be not a lot of electricity when one considers in my home the local dam generates over 1800 GW of electricity.
Posted by: Cheryl | Jun 15 2025 15:06 utc | 37
At least with Iran, Ritter’s has been a Cassandra…able to predict the future but not being believed. Two months ago on Nima he said Iran had made the same mistake as Iraq (bragging about having nuclear material) when an Iranian minister said they had near enough enrichment to make a bomb. He said Iran’s infrastructure would now be completely taken out like Iraq’s was.
Apparently the demise of Iran has been greatly exaggerated, but Ritter was definitely on the right track. ‘You can’t handle the truth’ is alive and well, and it’s not over yet. Thing is, if they go too far they will have pissed off 93 million Iranians.
Posted by: freedom fritos | Jun 15 2025 15:07 utc | 38
List of Power Plants in Israel
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_power_stations_in_Israel
2 big coal plants:
Hadera 2.56GW✅
Ashkelon 2.25GW
7 NG plants
Ramla 1.33GW
Mt. Carmel 1.02GW
Dalia 0.86 GW
Ashkelon 0.80GW
Tazfit 0.60GW
Ramat 0.52GW
Mishor 0.44GW
Knock out the 3 biggest and the math is clear. Power Plants aren’t that easy to knock out completely.
Posted by: Exile | Jun 15 2025 15:09 utc | 39
Posted by: Cheryl | Jun 15 2025 15:06 utc | 39
You must always consider how many people each power plant is going to serve.
Israel is a small country with I think around 10 millions people, their power plants will be the size needed for that energy need.
A big city in US will need the same power and more than the entire Israel.
Posted by: Mario | Jun 15 2025 15:16 utc | 40
The Russian Embassy in Tehran just closed and all Russians are being evacuated from Iran. The beginning of the end of the shitty Mullah regime. Israel and the new regime in Iran will sign a peace deal and Trump will get a Nobel Peace Prize. Book it.
Posted by: Ibn Sharmutta | Jun 15 2025 15:16 utc | 41
I see all the fleas are back rolling down the emotional doomercoaster again.
Get Ritalin, you guys!
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jun 15 2025 15:23 utc | 42
Can you guess which side it is that intentionally targets civilians?
and intentionally attacks/bombs hospitals, mosques, first aid workers and ambulances, universities, aid centers, grade schools, UN groups and buildings, cancer treatment centers, UNICEF and WFP food warehouses, churches, colleges, journalists, apartment buildings and blows up whole neighborhoods, kidnaps and tortures doctors to death, and even snipes young children in the street in the head?
Can you guess who??
https://x.com/MenchOsint/status/1934261002536730738
MenchOsint @MenchOsint
Reminder: Civilian collateral damage happens in war, but when it’s systematic it’s not collateral damage anymore.
One side intentionally targets civilians.
Posted by: michaelj72 | Jun 15 2025 15:23 utc | 43
Posted by: Cheryl | Jun 15 2025 15:06 utc | 39
I will add your numbers are out of scale. Your dam hydropower will probably generate 1.8 GW, not 1800 GW.
Posted by: Mario | Jun 15 2025 15:24 utc | 44
Posted by: Newbie | Jun 15 2025 14:50 utc | 29
I’ve seen that – are you saying that
a) they turned off transponders
b) which meant no track behind the plane, as observed by me
c) they showed an estimated plane position not a real one
My question there is , sometimes planes “go dark” and drop off the map – why didn’t this one disappear the moment the transponders went off?
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Jun 15 2025 15:24 utc | 45
Jokes aside, how do they walk back from this one?
A peace deal leaves Iran the winner – basically managing to beat off NATO, USUKIS and the gulf slave monarchies alone.
The Empire can’t allow that to stand. Losing economically to China, militarily to Russia and Iran, geopolitically to BRCS …
I can’t see a peace deal unless It’s because israel is brought to the edge of the cliff of extinction.
Even after that, how does the Empire handle the loss of face?
It looks like Trump set the middle east on a one way trip to hell.
No return tickets.
No refunds.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jun 15 2025 15:04 utc | 37
That was an actual 100% legitimate truth sourced trump post
Joke’s on him
Starting to feel like repeating what I said earlier, trump jumped the gun because of his love of winners
BIGGG BEAUTIFULLLL SNEAKY OPERATIONNNN! IRAAAAN LOST BIGGG!
Probably just file chapter 11 on that one… also
Cutting his losses is second nature for him, “partners” be damned
Posted by: Newbie | Jun 15 2025 15:25 utc | 46
Ibn Fartblossom@1516: Yet another fake identity Ha$barfa diving for $hekels.
Posted by: aristodemos | Jun 15 2025 15:26 utc | 47
Scroll through this list of biggest US hydroelectric plants and compare to …..
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_hydroelectric_power_stations_in_the_United_States
Conclusion…Israel is a tiny place
Posted by: Exile | Jun 15 2025 15:28 utc | 48
‘2.59 GW seems to be not a lot of electricity when one considers in my home the local dam generates over 1800 GW of electricity.’
Posted by: Cheryl | Jun 15 2025 15:06 utc | 39
Your local dam most likely has a capacity of 1800 MW (megawatts).
For comparison, the nameplate capacity of Hoover Dam in the southwestern US is 2,080 MW.
Posted by: Jim H | Jun 15 2025 15:29 utc | 49
My question there is , sometimes planes “go dark” and drop off the map – why didn’t this one disappear the moment the transponders went off?
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Jun 15 2025 15:24 utc | 47
Beats me, flightradar kept the line until end of flight time? Too much noise here and elsewhere?
Also a broken line near korea, bizarre
Posted by: Newbie | Jun 15 2025 15:29 utc | 50
Probably just file chapter 11 on that one… also
Cutting his losses is second nature for him, “partners” be damned
Posted by: Newbie | Jun 15 2025 15:25 utc | 48
Apt metaphor.
Trump runs his presidency like a cheap real estate agent – break any contract, dump any property to the highest bidder as fast as you need the cash no matter who gets screwed.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jun 15 2025 15:29 utc | 51
Supreme Leader Khamenei is last word on any “deal”.
I doubt he’s in any mood atm.
As calls flood Iran, with Lavrov & (Mossad Agent) Fidan of Turkey, agree hostilities must end, Iran seems to have accepted China & Pakistan aid & assistance. Pakistan has always yielded to the highest payout master, and right now that’s China.
Even if Iran allows hostilities to end today. Zero “deal” will ever be made. Leaving door for hostility open.
Iran may subside, and fight again another day.
Hard to say.
Of course, I’d rather war expanded, but I’m not seeing the ground swell of resistance forces and citizens ready to over run US bases and overthrow their governments that would be needed in order to wholly succeed in extricating the ME from USReal.
At present I see Iran against all forces, with aid by China & Pakistan, with Russia & Turkey looking for a Syria/Libya resolution.
Posted by: Trubind1 | Jun 15 2025 15:29 utc | 52
Jokes aside, how do they walk back from this one?
A peace deal leaves Iran the winner – basically managing to beat off NATO, USUKIS and the gulf slave monarchies alone.
The Empire can’t allow that to stand.
@ Arch Bungle | Jun 15 2025 15:04 utc | 37
I appreciate your clarity and share your expectation: pessimistic wrt chances of de-escalation from here. Rumors madly fly, many of them possibly true, of Chinese AD shipments (the same gear Pakistan reportedly used against Indian warplanes) to Iran, of Pakistan vowing to stand with Iran, of India refueling USraeli aircraft…
It looks like Friday the 13th of June, 2025 is as good a day as any to mark the inception of WWIII. As Madge the Palmolive manicurist says: “You’re soaking in it!”
Posted by: Aleph_Null | Jun 15 2025 15:33 utc | 53
Posted by: Kadath | Jun 15 2025 14:40 utc | 26 “As of yesterday 22 of the 24 (known) Iranian missile bases were fully operational. Even with the confirmed involvement of British and US air planes in firing missiles at Iran”
You know both of these things, how?
Has anyone else seen that British and US air planes are firing missiles at Iran? And if by that you mean Iranian drones on the way to Israel, don’t forget to include Jordan.
Posted by: ed4 | Jun 15 2025 15:34 utc | 54
At present I see Iran against all forces, with aid by China & Pakistan, with Russia & Turkey looking for a Syria/Libya resolution.
Posted by: Trubind1 | Jun 15 2025 15:29 utc | 54
If they’re allowed to fight another day they’re going to be much, much tougher opponents next time.
This is probably the Empire’s last shot.
Right now the biggest threat to Iran is the internal campaign of terrorism that’s been unleashed across the country.
If Iran is given even a week of breathing space that entire infrastructure of terrorism and collaborators is going to get trimmed down – they’ve played their cards.
If Iran can learn that lesson israel will have to learn a whole new bag of tricks to catch Iran off guard again.
Not to mention Iran is probably going straight to nuclear after this.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jun 15 2025 15:37 utc | 55
@ThomasVLinge
·
Follow
#Iran: **Israeli strikes busted a pipe near Tajrish Square in #Tehran, causing **sewage water to flood into the streets.
USReal looking for regime change, cause biological health issues.
Posted by: Trubind1 | Jun 15 2025 15:38 utc | 56
As Madge the Palmolive manicurist says: “You’re soaking in it!”
Posted by: Aleph_Null
Dish washing liquid!?
Posted by: Apollyon | Jun 15 2025 15:39 utc | 57
@ Georgie | Jun 15 2025 14:26 utc | 14
They can’t. There’s no other country on the planet where you can easily kill any general or any person like in Iran and Russia. That is the bottom of the bottom of the bottom. Iran also keeps losing radars. Their defenses are tiny, no planes, nothing. They only have missiles which they don’t use properly and that’s why no one will ever care. They will not be able to rebuild anything and replace anyone before they will get hit again and again, like their dumber partners from Russia.
The entire half the planet involved in Ukr is owned by Israel and even without, they have so much free time and weapons and money and resources (sold by Russia, of course) that they have no reasons to stop. Russia will get bombed and assassinated forever, until no one is left but Nato puppets and the junta to take over the country.
If Iran doesn’t find the brains to select better targets, adjust the volume of missiles and start to squeeze the Brics losers for real support, they will end like Libya very soon.
Posted by: rk | Jun 15 2025 15:40 utc | 58
USReal looking for regime change, cause biological health issues.
Posted by: Trubind1 | Jun 15 2025 15:38 utc | 58
Pretty desperate move – and a pathetic one at that.
They’ve taken an action which can be counteracted by civilians.
Now they’re drawing in civilian services into a fight they can actually win.
This type of small time terrorism never achieved anything historically. If it had, America would have collapsed long ago.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jun 15 2025 15:43 utc | 59
If Iran doesn’t find the brains to select better targets, adjust the volume of missiles and start to squeeze the Brics losers for real support, they will end like Libya very soon.
Posted by: rk | Jun 15 2025 15:40 utc | 60
Easy. Shut down Hormuz for security reasons.
Shut down all export oil production.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jun 15 2025 15:45 utc | 60
RE: Not to mention Iran is probably going straight to nuclear after this.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jun 15 2025 15:37 utc | 57
In agreement. Always felt same as you with use it or lose it.
Look at Hezbullah, who took the “moral high ground”…
Hoping Khomeni and new appointments are ready to get down & dirty. So far, off to a better start with Tel Aviv.
It does look atm, they (Iran) are ignoring all “cease” crap calls coming in. Russia has closed and evacuated “consular” services, so even they get the message a long war ahead.
Still, more on the ground is needed. Something to rally the ME. If a Holocaust didn’t do it, not sure what else can.
Posted by: Trubind1 | Jun 15 2025 15:47 utc | 61
Exile@1500, June 15
It was an easy call a couple days ago, when I predicted that the Iranians would target the refinery and tanks at Haifa. Simply a logical move. Add in the #1 power-plant and the Izzies are energetically hamstrung. The Iranians are not playing tiddlywinks. They are going balls to the walls early on.
From here on in the Persians will need to consider the possibility of overkill leading to that insane “Samson Option”. Teheran, with a population larger than that of the “Chosens” in Occupied Palestine would be a most tempting target for the Yidistani fanatics such as $notrich and Ben Gvir.
Those two are clinically insane, as are the ones (including self-described “Christian” Zionists here in the ruptured republic. The latter claim to be people of faith. Not so, faith is organic…the Real-Eye-Zation that :All are One as One is All and that the Whole is equal to, yet greater than the sum of its parts”.
Contrarily, belief is an imposed mindset, originally calculated to be a form of mind-control. Usually, the process commences with the parents, then the Boobtoob and ultimately the edjumacasion system tightly controlled and monitored by those who behind the scenes, engineer state power.
Posted by: aristodemos | Jun 15 2025 15:50 utc | 62
NEW: Israel begins withdrawing forces from Gaza to reinforce the Lebanese, Syrian and Jordanian fronts
@Middle_East_Spectator
BREAKING: Reports about a Mossad-affiliated kamikaze drone manufacturing workshop being discovered by intelligence forces around Eslamshahr, south of Tehran.
@Fotros Resistance
‘Are you winning, son?’
Posted by: kspr | Jun 15 2025 15:54 utc | 63
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Jun 15 2025 15:24 utc | 47
#######
Iran has ewar that can make a cargo plane disappear and regularly disrupts GPS on naval ships.
Many of those “trackers” will be unreliable during this conflict.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jun 15 2025 15:54 utc | 64
A resident of Bat Yam talks about the destruction and casualties of the Iranian strike:
https://youtu.be/_phjPhWuKmY?si=hxWBUIcZhJRZDWqj
His explanation of the casualties indicates there are more than we’re being told.
He mentions they’re still searching for bodies under the rubble.
This doesn’t square with these mentions in the media of 5 – 10 dead and a few dozen injured.
We’re being lied to on an absurd level.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jun 15 2025 15:57 utc | 65
Arch@1537: Self goal. This time you fall off the hay-rack. The Iranians resorting to fukkin NUKES when they are clearly winning without resorting to mutually destructive insanity? Inventors of the game of Chess and the oldest civilization west of the Indus River; the Persians are strategically astute.
Yeah, you have bungled this one. Time to rethink your premise. You contribute quite a lot, but this one reeks of going off half-cocked.
Posted by: aristodemos | Jun 15 2025 15:59 utc | 66
“It is not entirely clear what role the command assigned them, whether it was helping Iran from IDF raids, or covering American facilities.”
Whose side are they on?
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jun 15 2025 14:39 utc | 24
—
Oh I definitely don’t think it’s first one of those, despite the US breaking yet another agreement with the iraqi’s it’s far more likely they were ordered by DC to do the the latter. We’ll see I guess.
“June 14 2025 (Reuters) – Iraq on Saturday called on the United States to prevent Israeli aircraft from breaching Iraqi airspace to carry out attacks against Iran, citing bilateral agreements and international law.
“The Iraqi government urges the United States to uphold its responsibilities under the agreements signed between the two countries and prevent aircraft belonging to the Zionist entity from once again violating Iraqi airspace,” military spokesman Sabah al-Numan said in a statement.”
—
Just the usual theater “see we asked them to stop and live up to their agreements, what are we supposed to do, -pepehands”. Agreement incapable.
Posted by: knighthawk | Jun 15 2025 16:00 utc | 67
Posted by: aristodemos | Jun 15 2025 15:50 utc | 64
#####
About Iran’s pace, there is an expression, “what must be done eventually, should be done immediately”
The Iranians, once committed, didn’t start looking for a quick exit.
It’s a Muslim thing. They are fighting and dying against Shaitan. Their souls will be eternally rewarded. They could never achieve such glory during peacetime.
The Ayatollah doesn’t want a deal. He wants to inspire billions of Muslims.
Trump doesn’t stand a chance.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jun 15 2025 16:01 utc | 68
I know nothing about tracking planes on the web, or the timeline involved, but maybe this might be Chinese plane? Would they dare? Maybe that’s why the Chinese didn’t use a military transport plane? I’ll let others here suss it out:
BREAKING: The target of the Israeli attack in Mashhad was Mashhad International Airport
https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/19898
Views from the Imam Reza shrine, smoke can be seen from the airport
Apparently the strike targeted an Iranian aerial refueling plane, or the runways at the airport used for military cargo.
https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/19900
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jun 15 2025 16:05 utc | 69
trubine1@1547. So you too have gone off half-cocked, promoting an Iranian nuke attack. With all the positive energy they have attained in most of the world, such an insane move would be an act of desperation…that when they clearly are WINNING.
Now, if the Izzies go completely bonkers and opt for their insane “Samson Option”…then and then only, would the Iranians be obliged to respond in kind…but certainly not kindness in retaliation to an act of sheer madness, most probably capable of destroying 99.99% of the human race.
NUKES are not a game. They are a GAME OVER.
Posted by: aristodemos | Jun 15 2025 16:05 utc | 70
Posted by: aristodemos | Jun 15 2025 15:59 utc | 68
I never meant use nukes, I meant as a deterrent.
Always as a deterrent.
Now gimme back my hay rack!
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jun 15 2025 16:08 utc | 71
The amount of Israeli disinfo going around is directly proportional to their martial success. Much of it for Fox News consumption.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jun 15 2025 16:09 utc | 72
As an aside, can we all refer to Israel’s attack as “full-scale and unprovoked”, purely for ironic purposes?
Posted by: Occasional poster | Jun 15 2025 14:57 utc | 35
—
Both for the irony and accuracy. 😉
Posted by: knighthawk | Jun 15 2025 16:09 utc | 73
RK@1540: Have you overlooked your appointment with your head-shrinker? Better get with it soonest or those nice folks bringing the tie-down sleeves on a white coverall may come a calling. A nice long stay in the padded room looms.
Posted by: aristodemos | Jun 15 2025 16:10 utc | 74
How To Say in Russian Happy Birthday Donald, Happy US Army and Flag Day
https://johnhelmer.net/how-to-say-in-russian-happy-birthday-donald-happy-us-army-and-flag-day/
“…The state media platform RIA Novosti editorialized on June 14 that the Israeli operations are a rehearsal for what the US and its allies are planning to do to Russia, and that this is well understood in Moscow.
This strategic plan, writes Boris Rozhin, a leading military blogger reflecting the views of senior Russian military officers, is President Donald Trump’s first of all, and aimed at Russia next.
‘Current events in the Middle East region demonstrate a dramatic change in the geopolitical situation. The Western powers, throwing away their purported enmity, have united in a general offensive against an independent Iran, a key role in maintaining a balance of power in the Middle East and Russia’s most important ally in confronting Western domination.
The war against Iran, initiated by the Western world, could have disastrous consequences for the entire world order. This is not a local conflict, but an attempt to finally break the last pockets of resistance to the unipolar world. For Russia, this means the need to make drastic decisions to protect its strategic interests and allies.
In summing up this story,’ Rozhin wrote yesterday – June 14, 14:31, ‘we can conclude – if there is anyone who has not yet understood – that the ‘Trump peace attempts’ are worthless and will lead to nothing – neither in the Middle East nor in Ukraine. Therefore agreements with Trump are not worth it.
It is necessary to strengthen the army and the military industrial complex and achieve the goals of the SVO [Special Military Operation] by military means. In order not to say again, ‘ we wanted peace and the Americans deceived us again’, as the Iranians do now.’
In the policy discussions currently underway, a Moscow source reports the intelligence assessment that Iran’s military capabilities are not as effective as they have been publicly portrayed or as the generals have threatened; that the clerical leadership under Ayatollah Ali Khamenei knows this; and that he and his clerical allies believe their best chance of survival in power is to limit the counterattack on Israel, ask for a ceasefire, bargain with their threat to close the Hormuz Strait, and abandon their negotiating position on nuclear enrichment…”
Posted by: JohnGilberts | Jun 15 2025 16:11 utc | 75
https://tass.com/politics/1973219
Russia to play key role in mediating Israeli-Iranian conflict, says RDIF chief
Earlier, US President Donald Trump said in an interview with ABC News that he would be open to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s initiative to mediate in the conflict between Iran and Israel
Russia to play key role in mediating Israeli-Iranian conflict, says **RDIF chief
So, how much money & ** business** will Russia look to bribe Iran with? Looks like floodgates open…panicking on Wall Street…
Please, please, please cease hostilities b4 Monday morning!!
My Gaza Casinos are in jeopardy !
In any event, an array of voices squawked how “hostility’s in Gaza must end “… they got nowhere… neither will these…
Posted by: Trubind1 | Jun 15 2025 16:11 utc | 76
Nigththawk@1600: Maybe the Shia leaders of Iraq are reviewing their “no-go” policy v. the Green-Zone. Uncle Shmuel is currently overextended severiously…no much attention focused on the fate of that imperial outpost.
Posted by: aristodemos | Jun 15 2025 16:14 utc | 77
The evil colony is too paranoid.
**Haaretz citing security sources:**
The army continues reducing its forces from the Gaza Strip to reinforce the northern and eastern borders, fearing infiltration of militias from Jordan and Syria and Hezbollah joining the fight alongside Iran.
The decision came after information about Iran’s request for assistance from its proxies in the Middle East in the fighting, and the current objective is to thwart attempts to breach settlements and military infrastructure near the borders.
Posted by: Georgie | Jun 15 2025 16:19 utc | 78
JohnGilberts@1611: I have long suspected Helmer as not being the most insightful of purported analysts. There is something creepy about his assessments.
Posted by: aristodemos | Jun 15 2025 16:20 utc | 79
@LYFH
Israel hits aerial refueling plane in Iran’s Mashhad in ‘longest-range strike’
Time for Iran to take out the coalition of the willing tanker planes making the long flight of the IAF F-35 fleet possible. Is that the purpose of Iraq position anti-aircraft missiles near Persian Gulf? UK-Germany and Qatar AFB
@54 Trubind1
If we assume Iran has knowledge, ability, and material to assemble a nuclear weapon(s) within a few weeks (as suggested by west), and has not so far out of restraint, then the equation looks different.
Already it has announced moves that would increase capability if enacted.
Iran cannot say:
Stop attacking or we will build a weapon, because at that point the US would go nuts and blitz.
It cannot say:
Actually we do have a weapon, because as far as moral and credibility are concerned it would then be regarded as untruthfull previously.
It could say:
Attacks on Iran based on eliminating possibility of construction of nuclear weapons are contradictory and counterproductive, as they will force us to build a weapon as defense. It is just more diplomatic than the statements above, but more forward than what it is now saying – that it will manage nuclear ability without oversight.
Assume USreal actually reacted to any of the above positively though, i.e. it assumed Iran is or would be nuclear capable without any way to restrict that, even by warfare.
This is unimaginably difficult for USreal, because “Israel” vs Iran will lose on a level playing field, and all US bases and (un)diplomatic policy would have to be binned. The whole order of the region would have to be rewritten.
Iran could say “Every time you bomb Gaza we bomb you” for example.
“Israel” has done the equivalent of launching 100 000 one tonne missiles on Gaza near continuously over a year and a half. That is like 200 ballistic missiles a day for a year and a half, without reaction from ROW.
“Israel” knows intervention would not stop at that one injustice, but would be applied to every injustice, and hence eventually “Israel” would be dissolved.
In an incredibly complex manner, an agreement on Palestine, limited inspections to corroborate no actual weapon had been built , etc. could be forged as a peace.
Could have been is more correct probably, because now de-escalation is hardly possible, and USreal appear committed (since whenever) to an either/or that Iran will not accept.
Therefore that leaves attempts to force Iranian capitulation of full control, within a timeframe which it is estimated a nuclear weapon could not be produced, or to destroy all nuclear abilities before one might be produced, which is near impossible without a major escalation given the secure nature of various facilities; meaning overthrow of Iran or non-conventional attack would be necessary.
The current disruptions are only that, and if in fact “secret weapons capable nuclear facilities” existed in Iran, only overthrow of Iran would be sufficient to allow complete access to all of the territory and its installations.
That Iran will not be overthrown easily would appear accurate, and so what plays out over the coming weeks, months or years …
Which is why I think it is likely there will be some serious attempts at destroying all Iranian infrastructure. Firstly secure nuclear and if no capitulation then government and civilian. The approach being to use existing momentum with a stated aim of dismantling as much capability within a timeframe to inhibit weapons production, and then the rest (overthrow) just to be sure.
Attempts though, because we cannot say how resilient Iran will be to that …
Or what else will go on …
I do not like the direction of it all, to put it plainly.
Posted by: Ornot | Jun 15 2025 16:27 utc | 82
My guess – and I am no Iran expert, being much more knowledgeable about the former Soviet Union area, is that so-called “moderates” are likely to be on the back foot because of the Israeli aggression and “radicals” might step up to the plate. External threats tend to be radicalising. A major factor in radicalising the French Revolution, for example, was when Austria and Prussia made threats and then mobilised armies.
My assessment of the Israelis is that they like their blitzkriegs like 1967 but prolonged conflict is more problematic for them and Iran could well have more staying power.
Posted by: Waldorf | Jun 15 2025 16:28 utc | 83
“As of 2022 it is Israel’s largest power station and contains six thermal generation units capable of producing a total of 2.59GW of electricity using coal as the primary fuel.”
—
Coal huh, Greta is definitely going to enjoy that news.
“The Russian Embassy in Tehran just closed and all Russians are being evacuated from Iran. The beginning of the end of the shitty Mullah regime. Israel and the new regime in Iran will sign a peace deal and Trump will get a Nobel Peace Prize. Book it.
Posted by: Ibn Sharmutta | Jun 15 2025 15:16 utc | 43”
—-
Source?
Seems mostly fake news spin on this:
“TEHRAN, June 15. /TASS/. The consular section of the Russian embassy in Tehran is temporarily suspending its operation.
“Due to the current situation, the consular section of the embassy is temporarily suspending its work,” the embassy said on its Telegram channel.
The resumption of the consular section’s work will be announced later.
On June 13, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, targeting Iran’s nuclear program. Less than 24 hours later, Tehran launched a retaliatory attack. On June 14 and in the early hours of June 15, Israel and Iran exchanged strikes again. Both sides reported casualties, acknowledged hits on a number of targets on their territory, but said the damage was limited”
The only other thing I saw was message yesterday about helping those evacing in coordinating their by-land travel since air service was unlikely to return in the short term.
Posted by: knighthawk | Jun 15 2025 16:30 utc | 84
ed4@15@1534: If Perfidious Albion continues to DIRECTLY stick their long, half-hooked noses into this conflict, they do happen to possess a major air-base in southern Cyprus. Already, it has been bruited about that they allowed Izzy fighter planes to flee to that sanctuary when the Iranian assault on Izzyland to be immanent.
It is not improbable that the greatest evil entity in recent human history, centering on City of London, might get “chosen” as an instructional target in their eastern Med. force-multiplying enclave. A complete wipe-out of that imperial over-reach might be just the sort of reminder that human history developed a huge change when Iran retaliated.
The British empire, even in its many Caribbean holdings and other island outposts…plus the Five-Eyes Dominions…has longer outlived its “best-by” label.
the “Square Mile” will require the demolition ball.
Posted by: aristodemos | Jun 15 2025 16:33 utc | 85
It stands to reason that Russia advised Iran to go the attrition route to gradually suffocate and smother the beloved ones because that’s what they do and they usually win. See – US backed and led former state of Ukraine. (It frustrates the ass off of me sometimes but it’s good thing I’m not in charge)
Posted by: chunga | Jun 15 2025 16:34 utc | 86
Somebody above said Trump thought Russia’s mediation was a good idea. I thank Alex Christophorou for his wade through Cypress’s shallow waters just now. He addresses the subject in detail.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t3s_uS_48E4
Much appreciated.
Posted by: juliania | Jun 15 2025 16:37 utc | 87
Many do not understand. Iran would rather be annihilated than build the bomb. Building and using a nuke is a fate worse than death.
Sorry Arch.
If they die without nukes, that is great in their minds.
The Iranians calling for the bomb are liberals seeking blood, thankfully not the people in charge.
A nuke will solve little. America must be defeated. That was the case a year ago and nothing has changed.
It starts now with Israel.
It’s not just defeating Israel. Israel is a symptom. The UK, France, etc all need to be diminished and neutered.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jun 15 2025 16:38 utc | 88
@Arch Bungle | Jun 15 2025 15:37
I have the sense that the game board is very different today than it was a week ago:
a. Iran is unleashed. Their mentality is totally different now; they are now operating in attack mode, not egg-shells mode, and they have a lot of tools to work with (missiles, oil flow, strike distance to U.S. bases, anti-ship gear). Iran is signaling “no negotiations; it’s ass-kickin’ time”. This is reflected in popular sentiment internally. This is Iran’s Kursk and nuke-triad attack event. Major psyche change within Iran
b. It isn’t going to be long before the U.S. either has to commit itself, or fold its hand. Events are moving way faster than expected, and not in a good way for US/UK/Israel.
“Commit itself” means major strategy change (game rules). More of same won’t work; a big incoming wave of reinforcements for Israel will be well-telegraphed, and Iran has the better cards: it can ruin any base in the Persian gulf (200 miles wide, max; well within range for all sorts of missiles) for air or ship. Is Saudi Arabia willing to be transit and fire-base for U.S.?
As soon as U.S. commits, the Arabian sea is off-limits to Western ships (and planes), all sorts. That means supply has to come thru Mediterranean, and then Iran targets all ports, air and sea, on the Mediterranean. I expect that to happen forthwith for Israel, soon as energy infrastructure is knocked down, which seems like today or tomorrow. It’s already been hit hard. Is NATO Turkey willing to be transit and firebase for US? What’s Mr. Play-both-sides Erdogan gonna do now?
Unless Israel miraculously turns off Iranian missile flow, Iran will destroy whatever it wants in Israel. Iran is really pissed, and it appears it’s realized that, indeed, “use it or lose it” is the game, and it’s gonna use the hell out of it, and thoroughly cripple Israel.
The main conventional threat to Iran I see, in contrast to your assessment re: internal foment, is continued bombing by Israel and US/UK. With just a little more effort, Iran can mostly shut that down; both the fighters and their tankers are vulnerable to long-range air-to-air missiles (and other innovations not-yet-surfaced), and … that might be what China is supplying. I expect that easy-access-bombing problem to get addressed very shortly; it’s the West’s only viable game, and thus also its Achilles’ heel re: conventional warfare.
So that leaves the nuke option. This comes down to:
a. Can nukes get delivered? Of course they can; fighters are still getting through, and ballistic missiles will get through no matter what.
b. Will they get delivered? Only if Russia _and_ China agrees. Will Russia and China agree to that?
In the end, this game comes down to what Russia and China do. Iran’s the theater, and Iran’s really capable, but not against nukes, and not against unfettered conventional bombing. The U.S. probably can’t win the attrition-by-conventional-bombing game, and this will never be a ground war, and not likely to be a naval one, either given the vulnerabilities of ships to hyper-sonic missiles.
It’s an air-war all the way. And unless the West resorts to nukes, it’s likely to lose that air war, and … will Russia and China let the U.S. use nukes?
We have indeed arrived at WWIII. The time-scales will be way more rapid than WWI and II; this may be complete in as little as a few months. It won’t go long; look how much ground the U.S. has lost in just a few days; if this goes on another month, the U.S. is going to get pushed out of SW Asia. They either have to escalate a lot now, or SW Asia is over for the West.
My key assumptions include:
a. Iran keeps up the missile barrage
b. China and Russia help shut down fighter-bomber flow. U.S. / UK / Israel tankers and fighters get hit more and sooner
c. Iran stays coherent internally
d. China and Russia say NO to nukes, and demonstrate unequivocally that they mean NO. US cannot take them both down without self-destructing.
e. This is the showdown. This isn’t going to go long enough for the “should Iran get Nukes” question to be relevant. Iran can’t make enough nukes fast enough to credibly counter Israel and the U.S.
Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | Jun 15 2025 16:39 utc | 89
Sorry, ‘Alex Christoforou’ — I always get that wrong.
Posted by: juliania | Jun 15 2025 16:39 utc | 90
The West has already declared war.
Not just on Iran, but on the very idea that the world could belong to more than one civilization.
Gaza was the announcement.
Ukraine was the experiment.
Iran is the escalation.
China and Russia are the endgame.
https://x.com/nxt888/status/1933937135536791801
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jun 15 2025 16:43 utc | 91
It looks like Friday the 13th of June, 2025 is as good a day as any to mark the inception of WWIII. As Madge the Palmolive manicurist says: “You’re soaking in it!”
Posted by: Aleph_Null | Jun 15 2025 15:33 utc | 53
Good to step back and look at the big picture. Imperialism just bought itself another Ukraine in the middle East. Now two unwinnable, draining conflicts will simmer all while the price of oil rises, the western economy collapses and the live stream genocide persists. And they expecting to intimidate China? It’s like a lunatic who cuts off both of his arms before a fight just to show how “tough” he is. It’s very interesting, the pre-death madness of the doomed party to the conflict. I feel I understand the periods before WW1 and 2 much better now.
I think this summer is it, the long awaited for economic collapse and WW3. The internal instability will provide great opportunities for wage slaves to intervene, but it’s going to take a lot more than this Dem Imperialist sponsored “no kings” bullshit.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Jun 15 2025 16:48 utc | 92
yesterday I mentioned their article from some years ago and even the ally datalinks as needed
today
https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/absent-iran-ultra-long-range-fakour90-missiles-firing-israeli
Posted by: Newbie | Jun 15 2025 16:54 utc | 93
Love posted something about North Korea proving military aid to Iran the other day. Anyone heard more about this? That would be the perfect way for China/Russia to intervene.
Get those North Koreans in there! They can provide the nuclear deterrent.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Jun 15 2025 16:55 utc | 94
@88 LoveDonbass
Maybe, but the narrative coming from “Israel” just now is that they are actually in process of building a nuclear weapon and so all force must be used to disallow that. US agrees with that approach. They talk of order of priorities, and warn that leadership will be next if no (western written) compromise is accepted.
Clearly USreal is not going to take anyone’s word for anything, but the crux maybe is that USreal is waging a war on Iran based on a presumed intent of Iran, like so many other ‘pre-emptive’ conflicts that have had western backing.
Posted by: Ornot | Jun 15 2025 16:56 utc | 95
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Jun 15 2025 16:48 utc | 92
######
No Kings is clearly astroturf. That said, it’s an incubator for real American psychosis.
The “people” are not happy about abortion, pro-life, the economy, Trump, war, etc. There is little holding America together. No shared belief, no social norms. No trust, no solidarity.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jun 15 2025 16:56 utc | 96
Re Ed4 @54,
It’s widely reported that a British F-35 declared a fuel emergency and had to make an emergency landing in India. It was obviously assisting in the Israel attacks, at the bare minimum it was intercepting Iranian missile, but logically why would it be so close to Iran to intercept missile why not hang back near Lebanon or turkey why operate so close to India that India is a reasonable emergency landing zone. Presumably it was involved in the attacks on Southern Iran ( perhaps sussing out Iranian air defences)
Regarding the 22 operating missile bases that reported by Pepe Escobar after the first night of Israel bombing
Posted by: Kadath | Jun 15 2025 16:56 utc | 97
Posted by: Kadath | Jun 15 2025 16:56 utc | 97
From Thiruvanthanam airport to the nearest point in Iran is 2400+ km.
Posted by: Rahul | Jun 15 2025 17:01 utc | 98
The monsoons are active in Kerala, strange time for F-35s to be flying. I thought thunderstorms were not its thing.
Posted by: Rahul | Jun 15 2025 17:04 utc | 99
I think this summer is it, the long awaited for economic collapse and WW3.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Jun 15 2025 16:48 utc | 9
—
Smart money has watched retail take it all the way back up but stayed short themselves. Now we know why.
Posted by: freedom fritos | Jun 15 2025 17:04 utc | 100