|
Tic-Toc Thread On The War On Iran – 4
Alastair Crooke is summarizing the first days of USrael's war on Iran:
The situation in the broadest terms is that the attempt by Israel and allied Intelligence services to launch a surprise ‘synergistic psychic-shock’ to the Iranian state through simultaneous muti-domain decapitations, assassinations of scientists, disruption of Air Defence systems and the insertion of drone saboteur teams, failed.
It failed in its expected outcome — that of paralysing and panicking the Iranian leadership and even creating the space for ‘the hoped for’ regime-change vibe to take hold. (It never happened. Iranians buried political differences and rallied to national sovereignty).
Rather, despite the loss of eight military line commanders, the system quickly re-booted itself: the Air Defence systems were restored within 8 hours, and Iran retaliated with missile attacks on Israel.
The point here was that – other than superficial surface damage – there was no setback made to Iran’s nuclear programme. And to be clear, that was never the Israeli aim. They simply do not have the ability to destroy infrastructure buried 800 metres into mountains. They (with their allies — the US and European States) rather hope for ‘regime change’.
[…]
So, the situation has inverted from that of 13 June. Israel now is in big trouble: Its Air Defences are performing badly and it is Israel sustaining (verified) substantive damage to key assets. Basically, every politician in Israel now is begging the US to enter the war for them.
Israeli Minister & Cabinet member, Gila Gamliel: “We categorically demand that the United States join the war against Iran”.
While it first looked yesterday as if Trump may join the war with more overt action that changed after a meeting with his national security council.
As Larry Johnson observes:
Trump continued his intemperate postings on Truth Social until he convened a meeting of his National Security Council in Washington, DC this afternoon.
Something happened in that meeting to derail what seemed to be an inevitable collision with Iran because Trump’s subsequent social media posts only focused on mundane domestic matters, such as erecting two new flag poles on the White House grounds. I have seen one news item claiming that Trump is giving Iran 24 hours to surrender. That ain’t going to happen.
Ayatollah Khamenei confirms that this "ain't going to happen":
Khamenei.ir @khamenei_ir – 11:18 UTC · Jun 18, 2025
The US President threatens us. With his absurd rhetoric, he demands that the Iranian people surrender to him.
They should make threats against those who are afraid of being threatened. The Iranian nation isn’t frightened by such threats.
Since the first day of the war there have been waves of attacks by Israeli forces against Iran each followed by a wave of missile attacks by Iranian forces. Neither side has sufficient air defenses to prevent all hits. Neither side has air supremacy over the territory of the other country.
Iran has intercepted long range drones from Israel. It claims to have shot down several F-35 airplanes but has shown no proof for that. Israel has made claims of having hit Iranian missile launchers. But the video evidence of such strikes is poor and many hits seem to have been on decoys.
The tit for tat strike exchange is likely to continue for a while. Iran has several thousand of missiles. It is firing a mix of old ones, which can be intercepted, with a number of new ones which can't. It has changed its tactic from one big strike per day to multiple strikes per day with smaller numbers.
Israel's air defense seems prone to hit itself. The number of interceptors it is using is limited the Wall Street journal says (archived). It may be less than two weeks before those run out.
Israel claims to have launched some 800 sorties against Iran with which it hit 1,000 targets. It also claims that Iran has fired 400 missiles and 1,000 drones of which only 20 missiles reached their targets while only 200 drones reached Israel but did not hit anywhere. I can assure you that none of those numbers is true.
Both sides censor the results of strikes. From what is known both appear to have taken some significant damage.
But Iran is the much bigger country. It has more than ten times the people than Israel. Its area is 1.5 million square kilometer versus Israel's 21,000 square kilometer. Iran is mostly self sufficient. It has a widely dispersed industry and a well trained work force which can be switched from civil to military production. Israel depends on imports which can be interrupted. Its industry is small and highly concentrated in a few areas.
There is no doubt that Iran would win in a (long) war of attrition.
That is why Israel needs the U.S. to jump in.
I still have doubt that Trump, despite his rhetoric, is willing to do so. The risk is high and the outcome uncertain. Even if U.S. bombers manage to demolish Iran's centrifuges, buried below mountains, Iran will be able to reconstitute its nuclear program within a few months.
His intelligence people will tell him that this threat is not empty:
Khamenei.ir @khamenei_ir – 11:38 UTC · Jun 18, 2025
The US entering in this matter [war] is 100% to its own detriment. The damage it will suffer will be far greater than any harm that Iran may encounter.
At the UN Security Council Russia and China have taken strong positions against Israel's war of aggression. Neither can be expected to give overt support to Iran – at least not yet. The content of a few transport planes from China arriving in Iran will not change the big picture.
Whose reports? Is it too much to ask for you to apply critical reasoning before posting?
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jun 18 2025 19:45 utc | 342
– **Ali Bakir** from Qatar University and the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Initiative stated that Israel significantly weakened Hezbollah, leading to a de facto surrender agreement.
– **Daniel Byman** from the Center for Strategic and International Studies noted Hezbollah’s reluctance to restart conflicts, knowing they might lose.
– **Ellie Geranmayeh**, an Iran expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, highlighted that Iran’s allies, including Hezbollah, have been outgunned by Israel.
– **David Daoud**, a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, detailed how Israel decimated Hezbollah’s arsenal and leadership during a year-long war.
These opinions are supported by reports from reputable sources like *Breaking Defense*, *The New York Times*, and the *Atlantic Council*, reflecting a broad consensus among experts.
### Context and Implications
The weakening appears to stem from targeted strikes, leadership assassinations (e.g., Hassan Nasrallah), and loss of regional allies like Bashar al-Assad in Syria. However, Hezbollah retains some capabilities, such as an arsenal of rockets, which suggests ongoing threats. This complexity means the situation is still evolving, and opinions may vary based on future developments.
—
### Survey Note: Detailed Analysis of Hezbollah’s Weakened State
This section provides a comprehensive examination of the evidence and expert opinions regarding Hezbollah’s weakened state, drawing from recent reports and analyses. The information is organized to reflect the depth of research and the nuanced perspectives of defense experts, ensuring a thorough understanding for readers interested in geopolitical dynamics.
#### Background and Context
Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed militant group in Lebanon, has been a significant player in regional conflicts, particularly with Israel. Recent military engagements, especially since October 2023 following Hamas’s attack, have led to intense Israeli responses, including airstrikes and targeted assassinations. These actions have reportedly impacted Hezbollah’s operational capacity, leadership structure, and regional influence, prompting discussions among defense experts about the group’s current state.
#### Expert Assessments and Key Findings
Several defense experts and credible sources have provided detailed analyses, which are summarized below for clarity:
– **Ali Bakir**, affiliated with Qatar University and the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Initiative, emphasized the significant weakening of Hezbollah during last year’s confrontations with Israel. He noted that these actions forced a de facto surrender agreement, as reported in a recent article on [Breaking Defense](https://breakingdefense.com/2025/06/why-hezbollah-might-sit-out-the-israel-iran-conflict/). This suggests a strategic retreat by Hezbollah, unable to sustain prolonged conflict.
– **Daniel Byman**, from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, highlighted Hezbollah’s reluctance to engage in further fights, stating they would likely lose, as seen in discussions on [Breaking Defense](https://breakingdefense.com/2025/06/why-hezbollah-might-sit-out-the-israel-iran-conflict/). This indicates a perceived reduction in Hezbollah’s military confidence and capability, aligning with the broader narrative of weakening.
– **Ellie Geranmayeh**, an Iran expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, provided a broader perspective in an article on [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/16/world/middleeast/iran-military-defense.html), stating, “Iran has basically demonstrated that it was outgunned and outsmarted again by Israel.” This indirectly supports the notion that Hezbollah, as Iran’s key proxy, has been affected, with its capabilities diminished in the face of Israeli military superiority.
– **David Daoud**, a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, offered a detailed assessment in a report on the [Atlantic Council](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/weakened-by-israel-hezbollah-turns-to-spin-games-to-hold-support/), published on April 15, 2025. He noted that Israel decimated large parts of Hezbollah’s arsenal and wiped out its best military commanders and top political leadership during a year-long war. He further highlighted that Hezbollah is now focused on survival and retaining Shia support rather than rebuilding to fight, indicating a significant strategic shift due to weakened capacity.
#### Supporting Evidence from Reports
Additional reports provide context to these expert opinions:
– An article on [Breaking Defense](https://breakingdefense.com/2025/06/why-hezbollah-might-sit-out-the-israel-iran-conflict/), published just hours ago, states that Hezbollah, once considered Iran’s most powerful proxy, has been “hobbled by Israel in recent months” and is unlikely to directly engage in conflicts, reinforcing the expert views.
– [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/13/world/middleeast/iran-proxies-axis-hezbollah-israel.html), published five days ago, mentions Hezbollah facing growing pressure to disarm, with many Lebanese blaming the group for dragging the country into destructive conflict, suggesting internal and external pressures exacerbating its weakened state.
– The [Associated Press](https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-hezbollah-weapons-disarmament-israel-e5421702925f68040ee354fb7b06e368), in an article from April 28, 2025, reports Hezbollah is “severely weakened” after a war with Israel, with much of its top leadership killed and loss of key allies like Bashar al-Assad, aligning with Daoud’s observations.
– The [Washington Institute](https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/hezbollah-weakened-still-dangerous), in a report from October 2, 2024, notes that while Hezbollah’s leadership has been decimated and military capabilities severely degraded, it still maintains some arsenal, indicating a partial but significant weakening.
#### Table: Summary of Expert Opinions and Sources
| Expert/Source | Key Statement on Hezbollah’s Weakening | Source URL |
|—————————————————-|——————————————————————————————————-|————————————————————————————————-|
| Ali Bakir, Qatar University, Atlantic Council | Israel significantly weakened Hezbollah, leading to a de facto surrender agreement. | [Breaking Defense](https://breakingdefense.com/2025/06/why-hezbollah-might-sit-out-the-israel-iran-conflict/) |
| Daniel Byman, CSIS | Hezbollah reluctant to restart fights, knowing they would likely lose. | [Breaking Defense](https://breakingdefense.com/2025/06/why-hezbollah-might-sit-out-the-israel-iran-conflict/) |
| Ellie Geranmayeh, ECFR | Iran and its allies, including Hezbollah, outgunned and outsmarted by Israel. | [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/16/world/middleeast/iran-military-defense.html) |
| David Daoud, FDD | Israel decimated Hezbollah’s arsenal and leadership, focusing on survival rather than fighting. | [Atlantic Council](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/weakened-by-israel-hezbollah-turns-to-spin-games-to-hold-support/) |
#### Additional Context and Nuances
While the consensus among experts leans toward Hezbollah being weakened, there are nuances to consider:
– The [Washington Institute](https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/hezbollah-weakened-still-dangerous) notes that despite the weakening, Hezbollah still maintains an arsenal of rockets and a cadre of operatives, suggesting it remains a threat, albeit diminished.
– Reports like those on [CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/how-hezbollah-losses-have-weakened-iran-power-influence-60-minutes/), published on June 8, 2025, indicate that Hezbollah’s losses have weakened Iran’s influence, with Randa Slim, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, stating their proxy war strategy is not working, indirectly supporting the weakening narrative.
– The [Carnegie Endowment](https://carnegieendowment.org/middle-east/diwan/2025/02/pushing-back-against-hezbollah?lang=en), in a February 12, 2025, article, mentions attacks that weakened Hezbollah’s capabilities, aligning with the broader expert consensus.
#### Conclusion
The evidence from recent reports and expert analyses, as of June 18, 2025, strongly suggests that Hezbollah has been significantly weakened, particularly due to Israeli military actions, leadership losses, and regional shifts like the fall of Bashar al-Assad. Defense experts like Ali Bakir, Daniel Byman, Ellie Geranmayeh, and David Daoud provide detailed insights supporting this view, with credible sources like *Breaking Defense*, *The New York Times*, and the *Atlantic Council* backing these claims. However, the situation remains complex, with Hezbollah retaining some capabilities, and ongoing developments may alter the landscape further.
—
### Key Citations
– [Why Hezbollah might sit out the Israel-Iran conflict](https://breakingdefense.com/2025/06/why-hezbollah-might-sit-out-the-israel-iran-conflict/)
– [How Tough Is Iran? A String of Military Losses Raises](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/16/world/middleeast/iran-military-defense.html)
– [Weakened by Israel, Hezbollah turns to spin games to hold support](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/weakened-by-israel-hezbollah-turns-to-spin-games-to-hold-support/)
– [Israel’s Strike on Iran Comes at a Moment of Weakness for Hezbollah](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/13/world/middleeast/iran-proxies-axis-hezbollah-israel.html)
– [Pushing Back Against Hezbollah detailed analysis](https://carnegieendowment.org/middle-east/diwan/2025/02/pushing-back-against-hezbollah?lang=en)
– [How Hezbollah’s losses have weakened Iran’s power and influence](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/how-hezbollah-losses-have-weakened-iran-power-influence-60-minutes/)
– [Will a weakened Hezbollah in Lebanon disarm detailed report](https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-hezbollah-weapons-disarmament-israel-e5421702925f68040ee354fb7b06e368)
– [Hezbollah Is Weakened, But Still Dangerous policy analysis](https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/hezbollah-weakened-still-dangerous)
Posted by: Deniz | Jun 18 2025 20:17 utc | 375
|
