I commented yesterday that Trump Always Chickens Out (TACO) by pointing to a CNN piece:
Trump will allow 2 more weeks for diplomacy before deciding on US strike in Iran, White House says
“Based on the fact that there’s a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks,” said the president in his statement, which was read aloud by press secretary Karoline Leavitt from the White House briefing room.
However, "within the next two weeks" is open to many possibilities. Still I perceived that Trump had decided to not bomb Iran.
Yves Smith at Naked Capitalism sees a different form of TACO:
Trump has approved a US strike package for Iran but is allegedly holding off to see how Tehran responds to his latest ultimatum, which is to give up not just nuclear enrichment but also ballistic missiles, that is, render itself defenseless. Trump has put pedal to the metal and has also thrown the steering wheel out the window. He’s created too much in the way of expectation of action to reverse course. TACO is prevailing: Trump is unwilling and/or unable to stand up to the Israel lobby and neocons.
We will see. My hunch is still that Trump will refrain from attacking Iran because the potential damage it may cause to the global position of the U.S., as well as to his domestic political plans, is too high to make it a viable solution.
When the war in Ukraine was launched by Kiev the U.S. and its proxies had planned to shock Russia into submission. They anticipated that Russia was weak. The hoped for an economic crash and a breakdown of its government. But the move failed. In the months and years following the attack Russia pulled Ukraine into a war of attrition which Ukraine, even with support from the west, had no chance to win.
After recognizing that there was nothing to win in fighting Russia Trump pulled back from the war.
Similar plans were laid out for the attack on Iran. A shock and awe campaign would leave Iran decapitated and diminished. Despite all evidence Iran was perceived as weak. A revolution would break out. Any response from Iran would be defeated. But the move failed. In the days since the launch of the war Iran has dragged Israel into a war of attrition which Israel, even with the support from the west, has no chance to win.
It may still take a few days for Trump to accept that view. But, like in Ukraine, he is likely to draw the right conclusion from it.
Today the war proceed like it did over the last days. Neither side has air superiority. Israel is using stand off weapons and drones to hit targets in Iran. But its success against Iranian mobile missile launchers is so lousy that it promotes each of several different photos from one strike as unique defeats of Iranian forces.
Iran is using ballistic missiles with astonishing precision. By now at least 50% pass through the formerly dense network of Israel's missiles defenses. Several dozen do impact Israel each and every day.
But the reserves of missile for defense like Israel uses are counted in hundreds while the reserves of ballistic missiles Iran is using are numbered in thousands. Logistically and financially it is a fight that Israel can not win.
Its only hope is to involve the U.S. directly into a fight with Iran. But there is nothing in it strategically for the U.S. to win. Russian and China will not be sorry when the U.S. gets again bogged down in the Middle East.
Still it is of course possible that Trump's instincts will fail and that he will order an outright attack on Iran. Seymour Hersh's sources claim that the U.S. will strike during this weekend:
This is a report on what is most likely to happen in Iran, as early as this weekend, according to Israeli insiders and American officials I’ve relied upon for decades. It will entail heavy American bombing. I have vetted this report with a longtime US official in Washington, who told me that all will be “under control” if Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei “departs.” Just how that might happen, short of his assassination, is not known. There has been a great deal of talk about American firepower and targets inside Iran, but little practical thinking, as far I can tell, about how to remove a revered religious leader with an enormous following.
It would of course be the surest way to guarantee that Iran will indeed develop real nuclear weapons:
U.S. Spy Agencies Assess Iran Remains Undecided on Building a Bomb (archived) – NY Times
U.S. intelligence officials said Iran was likely to pivot toward producing a nuclear weapon if the U.S. attacked a main uranium enrichment site, or if Israel killed its supreme leader.
Conventional bunker busters are unlikely to be sufficient to knock out Iran's deeply buried enrichment bunkers. The U.S. would have to go nuclear. The B61-11 nuclear earth penetrator has a yield of 300 to 400 kilotons. Hiroshima and Nagasaki were 15 and 21 kt. Using it would set a precedence that the no one will want.
Iran's Foreign Minister is in Geneva to meet with the UK, Germany and France. There is nothing to expect from this. President Macron of France, who years ago condemned Trump from leaving the JCPOA agreement with Iran, has now adopted Trump's position. He is demanding zero enrichment, limits on Iran's ballistic missiles and limits on its support for resistance forces. A farce as all these points are well known Iranian redlines.
P.S.:
This is good:
Why Iran? The Context & The Consequences – Roger Boyd
