Tic-Toc No. 7 On The War On Iran
Nothing happens. The war continues.
Posted by b on June 21, 2025 at 15:03 UTC | Permalink
next page »If Trump bogies at the third hole today, then it’s war. If he has a clear round, peace.
Posted by: Bill B | Jun 21 2025 15:08 utc | 2
Pussin is a coward who only puts on the face of a worried nun.
Posted by: Mario | Jun 21 2025 15:11 utc | 3
Good Day b and fellow barflies!
We seem to still be alive so a round on me, enjoy!
The two statements at the beginning of this thread are contradictory. I posit that if the war continues, things must be happening, just not meeting our or others plans.
I am still of the view that empire will use one or two nukes as they drive themselves into the ground. Using them will divide the world further and harden the positions between them.....a true civilization war.
I expect the China/Russia/Iran axis to win the civilization war because that is the outcome I desire........the shit show continues until it doesn't
Posted by: psychohistorian | Jun 21 2025 15:14 utc | 4
‼️ JUST IN: The Yemeni Armed Forces announce their readiness to participate in targeting American ships and warships in the Red Sea in the event that the U.S. attacks Iran in support of Israel.
https://x.com/MenchOsint/status/1936440488011460866
Will Uncle Sam make a move or is this all another TACO moment?
Can Ansar Allah go 2-0?
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jun 21 2025 15:17 utc | 5
The Pentagon Sad Sacks take 4vr to get their units in place. Months.
If they really join in, in the next couple of days, it means the Likud is desperate.
Posted by: Exile | Jun 21 2025 15:18 utc | 6
Who wins in the US MAGA or the NEOCONS? Who Loses? Everybody.
Posted by: circumspect | Jun 21 2025 15:20 utc | 7
Here is my take on the situation.
Russia's job is to deal with NATO and Ukraine in the north. They are working hard to not take too much territory too fast from Ukraine because they get a lot of benefit from having short supply lines, long supply lines for NATO, and urban fighting where the residents are mostly pro-Russian and helpful in providing intel.
Parsing Putin's speeches seems to imply that if the battle is Iran vs Israel, then Russia will mostly stay out of it. If the US joins directly, I mean when the US joins directly, I suspect they will intervene a bit more forcefully.
China's job seems to be to help keep Russia, Iran, and North Korea afloat economically, and to help Iran militarily vs the expected US attack. I'm not sure what China, the King of Overcapacity, is going to do with a stockpile of 50k or so drones and/or missiles, but I suspect they will be used reasonably effectively.
I can't see any other end result other than 1) Israel no longer existing, with what is now called Israel a part of Palestine, 2) the elimination of NATO naval assets in the Mediterranean, Red Sea, and surrounding areas, and 3) a continuation of the slow steady slog that Russia is accomplishing in Ukraine. China will just have too many missiles and drones and artillery shells and bullets and anti-air missiles and aircraft and naval assets and people.
The only way, imho, for the US to avoid this ending would be for the US to not attack Iran. In this scenario, the sooner the US “convinces” Israel to stop attacking Iran, the stronger Israel would be moving forward.
Posted by: Woke American | Jun 21 2025 15:22 utc | 8
🇮🇷⚡️ Iran's Judiciary Chief, Mohseni Eje'i, personally attends the interrogation process of the recently arrested Mossad spies.A suspect linked to the terrorist Mossad service confessed: “I went to rooftops and took photos of anti-aircraft systems. I'm unemployed but supported my family.”
Judiciary Chief Eje’i:
Key Mossad-related cases must be completed swiftly and sent to court. No files should be left incomplete; full intelligence must be extracted from detainees. As we're in wartime, law enforcement must prioritize critical cases and speed up investigations.
This was the purpose of decades of sanctions: impoverish a people to the extent the poorest become desperate enough to sell their souls just to feed their families.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jun 21 2025 15:23 utc | 9
All the lies we've been fed over and over since the end of WWII
Posted by: Watzov | Jun 21 2025 15:07 utc | 1
Try since time immemorial. Consider Constantine's brilliant master stroke of Nicea.
Better yet, instead of merely suffering opposition by relegating dissenters to backwaters on the web, the 'church' (aka state) actually persecuted heretics by applying all kinds of fearsome punishments to enforce full narrative compliance.
The whole process is quite trivial and boring. After capturing the financial system, one merely needs to control the media to establish and support whatever narrative suits their fancy, be it secular or ecclesiastical.
This is why I'm constantly suggesting one look past the intentionally distracting political news streams and focus on the physics of the thing: Energy, technology, geography, etc.
Discard emotional triggers such as good, bad, right, wrong by looking at true (physical) capabilities and likely outcomes.
Posted by: Markw | Jun 21 2025 15:23 utc | 10
Someone got pissed at some of my comments.
What a badge of honor, someone sick puppeting me at 3
Posted by: Mario | Jun 21 2025 15:24 utc | 11
Insanity in individuals is rareInsanity in groups is the rule
- Friedrich Nietzsche
Useful to remember when trying to decipher current events.
Posted by: Otto Penn | Jun 21 2025 15:25 utc | 12
again, what are the terms Iran will accept. I don't think "leave us alone" will cut it. I think this gets to end of occupation and Palestinian statehood. This is the answer to, how does this end?
Posted by: Scottindallas | Jun 21 2025 15:25 utc | 13
The betrayal of the Iranian people by the Jewish-Neoliberal Trojan horse could not be greater... Iran has helped the Russian Federation with a significant number of drones and missiles at an extremely critical moment... The Russian Federation would not have been able to survive the first months in Ukraine without Iranian help.
If you listen to the statements of the high traitor about Iran in the last three days, you simply have to be ashamed of the Russian Federation... And the Stavka is silent about all this - except for the Achmat special forces, who have found clear words in the person of their commanders. The rest of the military seems to be deeply compromised themselves... It is one single national schame and disgrace!!
Posted by: Brigitte Mohnhaupt | Jun 21 2025 15:28 utc | 14
Iran won the first round, one on one Israel.
If the Iranian regime can survive the second round which is bombing by US military then Iran certainly is the Victor.
There is also a third and final round which is the ground invasion by the US army and USMC. If the Iranian regime can survive that, it is truly over for the American empire.
Posted by: FieryButMostPeaceful | Jun 21 2025 15:30 utc | 15
Peace Terms acceptable to Iran ?
Peking Declaration
UNR 194
UNR from 18.Sept 2024
UNT from 31.Oct 2023
Posted by: Exilr | Jun 21 2025 15:31 utc | 16
Thank you psychohistorian, everyone have a round on me as well!
I can but hope and wish that enough of those involved will realize that both nukes and further attacks on Iran (and elsewhere) are counterproductive and suicidal actions. It's a long journey back to "normal" so they better get started right away.
"Yellow shields" time? I freely admit I thought Biden would be the target. I'm going to assume everyone will know what I mean when/if that happens and if it doesn't then it can be ignored.
Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Jun 21 2025 15:32 utc | 18
Upon reflection, the notion of israeli air dominance over Iranian skies was always stupid as hell, and only the gullible could have fallen for it.
Did we really think fleets of up to 60 fighters jets, dependent on constant mid air refuelling over potentially hostile territory could comfortably keep up flight patterns enough to be called "dominance"?
Yes, mossad psyops is really that good.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jun 21 2025 15:33 utc | 19
"Friendly reminder that last year the official Democratic Party platform slammed Trump for choosing not to go to war with Iran in 2018, 2019 and 2020 during his last presidency."
The motive and origin behind "taco" meme. Trump is too big of a pussy for the Dems. He needs to nuke the country asap or be dubbed "taco".
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Jun 21 2025 15:34 utc | 20
Here is a legit nothing-burger: Hitler invaded Russia on Sunday, June 22 1941
That was 84yrs. ago; every four years is a leap year, and there are seven days in the week,
So every 28yrs. the calendar date and weekday repeats: 4 x 7 = 28 (84 yrs. = 4 x 28)
In many respects, June 22 1942, begins wwII; as in, a worldwide war.
Posted by: Nothingburgers | Jun 21 2025 15:35 utc | 21
Posted by: FieryButMostPeaceful | Jun 21 2025 15:30 utc | 14Your first two paragraphs make sense but the above does not. Where should the boots on the grould come from? What country is going to send soldiers to Iran? This is hopeless!There is also a third and final round which is the ground invasion by the US army and USMC. If the Iranian regime can survive that, it is truly over for the American empire.
There's a reason why Butler's "seven countries in five years" stopped short of Iran. I've seen US TV shows where experts argued shortly before the 2003 Iraq war, "now that we're going to have troops in Iraq already, we should deal with Iran in one fell swoop". It didn't happen: the gain/cost analysis is too bad.
Concretely: do you see any signs for ground invasion preparation? All I read is about planes, carriers, bombs.
Posted by: Konami | Jun 21 2025 15:35 utc | 22
From a Russian outlet...
US ready to send 4th aircraft carrier to Middle East
Its my understanding that the US had a treaty with Korea to keep one group stationed nearby.
Posted by: circumspect | Jun 21 2025 15:36 utc | 23
Posted by: Tichy | Jun 21 2025 15:16 utc | 1000
"I used to program a lot in Fortran, but I quit programming in Fortran 30 years ago, switching to C++ and other languages"
Yer well I programmed a 6502 in machine code using a hexadecimal keypad in 1979. Took me a week to "install" three block space invaders by hand from a book and another week "debugging" to make it playable. Those were the days! Lol
Posted by: gibb_er_ish | Jun 21 2025 15:36 utc | 24
There is also a third and final round which is the ground invasion by the US army and USMC. If the Iranian regime can survive that, it is truly over for the American empire.
Posted by: FieryButMostPeaceful | Jun 21 2025 15:30 utc | 14
If it comes to that, Iran has already won. An Imperialist ground invasion would be Vietnam 2, the final reconning.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Jun 21 2025 15:37 utc | 25
Ukraine and World Affairs: Weekly Update, 20th June 2025: May be useful to some: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-and-world-affairs-weekly-26e Provides summary of first week of the Iran-Israeli war.
Posted by: The Busker | Jun 21 2025 15:37 utc | 26
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jun 21 2025 15:33 utc | 18
My impression from X is that Israel does not have air dominance but is able to continue to strike targets in Iran. Several videos from today.
I don’t believe there has been an Iranian salvo yet today has there been?
My one concern is that Israel bc of still uncaught agents in Iran is able to identify and knock out Iranian radar and missile sites in a way that will degrade Iranian response. My sense is that Iran is intentionally slowing its response rate to this date on the assumption that the US will join, but that is just a hunch.
Posted by: WJ | Jun 21 2025 15:37 utc | 27
There is also a third and final round which is the ground invasion by the US army and USMC.
Posted by: FieryButMostPeaceful | Jun 21 2025 15:30 utc | 14
That's a non-starter. A classic march of folly into oblivion.
Especially since they could also be facing these guys from across the straits:
—❗️🇺🇸/🇾🇪/🇮🇷 BREAKING: The spokesman of Yemen's Ansarallah, Yahya Saree, confirms that Yemen will target all American navy and commercial vessels in the Red Sea and Bab Al-Mandab if the U.S. goes to war with Iran@Middle_East_Spectator
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jun 21 2025 15:39 utc | 28
Posted by: Konami | Jun 21 2025 15:35 utc | 21
It took the US a year of preparation to stage a ground invasion in Iraq. They are not going to be putting boots on the ground in Iran other than possibly a couple CIA/Delta groups.
Posted by: WJ | Jun 21 2025 15:39 utc | 29
The only way, imho, for the US to avoid this ending would be for the US to not attack Iran.
Woke American | Jun 21 2025 15:22 utc | 7
I agree - I just don't see how we win under the current scenario. Let's say we pound Iran to shit along the lines of Germany & Japan in 1945.
Do we effect regime change? And if so, how do we guard against ongoing stay behind elements engaged in sabotage and guerrilla warfare?
How do we protect our supply lines and ensure confidence in ongoing lending and capital spending that are dependent upon steady & secure energy inputs?
Nothing really adds up. Besides, what's the hurry? We fucked up maintaining existing heavy footprint doctrine (ie manned air, sea, land).
Why not take a pause to allow us to pivot towards new weapons development in such promising areas as AI, bio agents, transformative DNA, etc?
We can always come back in a generation or so when we're in a better position to achieve success.
Posted by: Markw | Jun 21 2025 15:41 utc | 30
Yer well I programmed a 6502 in machine code using a hexadecimal keypad in 1979. Took me a week to "install" three block space invaders by hand from a book and another week "debugging" to make it playable. Those were the days! Lol
Posted by: gibb_er_ish | Jun 21 2025 15:36 utc | 23
My first computer was the 6502 VIC-20.
Posted by: Tichy | Jun 21 2025 15:42 utc | 31
Posted by: Markw | Jun 21 2025 15:41 utc | 29
When Trump says “Unconditional Surrender” he might be alluding to Hiroshima. The plan might be to nuke the entire country into submission but I don’t think we could get away with that.
Posted by: WJ | Jun 21 2025 15:43 utc | 32
There is zero chance of a Israeli or American ground operation in Iran. Not only are the Americans allergic to casulaties, they simply dont have the combat force in the region. If they somehow teleported the manpower and materiel needed, they would still have to deal with the mountainous terrain, the unified population and the lack of any strategy. America is a headless chicken having been captured like a scientist in Half Life by a headcrab by the Zionist terror machine.
No, they'll try to bomb and likely suffer losses. Then all bets are off as Trump doesnt seem like someone who can handle losing. The Suez Canal moment of Maerica is nigh.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jun 21 2025 15:43 utc | 33
I don’t believe there has been an Iranian salvo yet today has there been?
My one concern is that Israel bc of still uncaught agents in Iran is able to identify and knock out Iranian radar and missile sites in a way that will degrade Iranian response. My sense is that Iran is intentionally slowing its response rate to this date on the assumption that the US will join, but that is just a hunch.
Posted by: WJ | Jun 21 2025 15:37 utc | 26
About 12 hours ago. The next round usually begins in about 2 hours from now.
We're on the same page on the rest of your post.
Judging by the reports, Iran is quickly rolling up mossad/CIA operators.
However, the "deep sleepers" are the worrisome ones.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jun 21 2025 15:45 utc | 34
When is the revered leader Netanyahu going to return to his beloved Country?
Is he comforting his people, visiting bombed sites, helping the suffering of his own? Too much to ask for. Shouldn't he be at the forefront?
Unless ofc all these strikes are infect carried out by nato. Where in Cyprus are they going to fit 200+ jets taking off and landing every hour that we are led to believe are all Israeli. The locals would witness these and I'm positive would have video confirmation like we did in gaza bombing runs.
Anyone see his where about? Still enjoying continental breakfasts in all inclusive hotels in Cyprus I suppose.
Posted by: ToB | Jun 21 2025 15:45 utc | 35
Posted by: Markw | Jun 21 2025 15:23 utc | 9
I try to follow you suggestion!
Posted by: lex talionis | Jun 21 2025 15:46 utc | 36
There is zero chance of a Israeli or American ground operation in Iran. Not only are the Americans allergic to casulaties
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jun 21 2025 15:43 utc | 32
Add to that, the Jews are fucking cowards.
Posted by: Tichy | Jun 21 2025 15:46 utc | 37
There is also a third and final round which is the ground invasion by the US army and USMC.
@Many commentators responding to the above.
I agree. The odds are heavily stacked in favor of Iranian regime surviving that.
But one can never know.
If the aerial bombing fails, the AIPAC lobby and neocons will 100% push for a repeat of Iraq 2003 in Iran. Even if it results in a disastrous campaign.
Posted by: FieryButMostPeaceful | Jun 21 2025 15:47 utc | 38
There is zero chance of a Israeli or American ground operation in Iran. Not only are the Americans allergic to casulaties, they simply dont have the combat force in the region.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jun 21 2025 15:43 utc | 32
Not to mention they're purging all the women, trannies and gays so they're down even more 'man power'.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jun 21 2025 15:49 utc | 39
Judging by the reports, Iran is quickly rolling up mossad/CIA operators.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jun 21 2025 15:45 utc | 33
I'm hoping for public and televised hangings and/or decapitations, and fast. Or they could go this route. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johann_Patkul
Posted by: Tichy | Jun 21 2025 15:49 utc | 40
Is Iran ramping up production of drones similar to Russia and UKrain?
100 drones a day could be problematic for crIZzies.
That level of outside support is plausible.
Posted by: jopalolive | Jun 21 2025 15:53 utc | 41
Posted by: WJ | Jun 21 2025 15:39 utc | 28Just right! I believe that three posters replied to FieryButMostlyPeaceful about that.It took the US a year of preparation to stage a ground invasion in Iraq. They are not going to be putting boots on the ground in Iran other than possibly a couple CIA/Delta groups.
Beyond that, I wonder if Iran is just another chapter in the US forever wars saga. Ukraine (i.e. NATO leadership but mostly Ukrainian men) is a forever war IMO, as far as the USA is concerned: this can go on at low intensity until Kiev folds or the Russians declare it's over because they've met their goals. Such a low intensity war is good for several reasons, as is certainly known here.
What about the war on Iran? It can't be conquered in a traditional sense, where USA and/or Israel tanks eventually drive into Tehran. It's hard to win a war by bombing, with Serbia 1999 being one of the few exceptions, and impossible against Iran IMO. So just like with the war against Russia, the US goal is not to win militarily but indirectly: there's a lot of talk about regime chain in mainstream media now (with the gutless son of the last shah shown around etc.) The Iranian strategy against Israel rules out a long war at low intensity; Israel cannot take it.
So I get the impression the Israel/USA war on Iran is a bit different. I believe the USA will find a way out that's not too costly for them and especially preserves the existence of Israel as a state. This is also why I'm sure that nuclear weapons won't be used. It's also my hope, of course.
Posted by: Konami | Jun 21 2025 15:53 utc | 42
Statement From Yahya Saree - Military Spokesman of Ansarallah
https://x.com/PalestineChron/status/1936445670195433684
"We will target US ships and warships in the Red Sea if any American aggression is launched in support of the Israeli enemy..."
'The Israeli enemy' is the enemy of all. Down USrael! Victory to Iran! Free Palestine! Brave Yemen!
Posted by: JohnGilberts | Jun 21 2025 15:53 utc | 43
I'm hoping for public and televised hangings
Posted by: Tichy | Jun 21 2025 15:49 utc | 39
I've heard reports of IRGC strapping traitors to missiles.
A gross violation of PoW rights of course but hey, there's no referee ...
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jun 21 2025 15:53 utc | 44
"Outcome of Israel’s war with Iran is uncertain even if US joins conflict
Peter Beaumont
American involvement is not guaranteed to secure Israel’s objectives – and may lead to unintended consequences"
Looks like reality may be starting to sink in at the CIA Guardian....
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Jun 21 2025 15:54 utc | 45
This military initiative by America is not about nuclear war, it is about oil. Who controls the oil controls the world.
America,s plan has been long in the making and we'll on track. The destroy 5 countries in 5 years was about controlling the oil, as has been done notably in Syria and Iraqu and ME. America will use it's ME bases and muscle to control the Persian Gulf. There will be a 20% cost to pass through which will solve a lot of problems for America' faltering economy. The usefulness of the petro-dollar is fading and fee for passage and guarantee of security is the American plan.
Russia is onboard because higher oil prices saves them hitting the wall financially.
America wants to control Canada and Mexico because higher oil pric will make selling them security very lucrative.
America is preparing NATO to control the EU and bring rogue states to heel.
Theilitary plan to control the Persian Gulf is well thought out. Look at the US bases and what ME countries support America. Realise the concentration and type of military assets that America has positioned there. Iran may be willing to fight, but military odds are in favour of America.
The elephant in the room is China. Higher oil prices will slow China down. China's access to ME oil can be controlled. Russia may choose to slow down oil supply to China. America can see it's control of world oil is their effective weapon against China and China's growth.
However China has shown it is not in a mood to be controlled by America. Ther recently sailed their two aircraft carriers to waters off Guam. And Guam is critical to America's military plan. Recently China has has tech breakthroughs in clean energy. And of course their EV industry is superior, so much that America is has directed the EU to initiate anti-dumping laws on China EV imports.
America had thought to control chip industry to control China growth. But that isn't working out well. Then it was AI, but that also isn't working out well.
But a strategic war in the M E is against an inferior for is what America does best.
Will the Chinese dragon wake up and breathe fire? Maybe.
One last word please. Long ago I sat at a Canberra Press Club lunchtime speech by my old boss Paul Keating. He was full of his own ideas and visions as he was his habit. He was discuing personal PCs and their coming popularity. He acknowledged that China could and would make the mass of PC's in the future world. But, he said, who is going to teach these Chinese how to use them? Hard to believe such a smart bloke could be so niaive
. But a lot of people, maybe most, do not understand China and get it wrong.
Lots of those who write on MOA understand how America got strong from oil, and know that oil and war is their chosen way to being top dog. Let's hope others here whcan see this bigger picture too.
7
Posted by: Bingo | Jun 21 2025 15:56 utc | 46
Arch, they aint POWs . They are traitors and franc tirraileurs (sic) Also the British blew Sepoys from their cannons for their treason, so if it is good for Britannia it is good for Iran.
Posted by: Total | Jun 21 2025 15:57 utc | 48
At the end of the day, the outcome will be the Americans will own and control the Straight of Hormuz or they won't. That's the real target here.
This is massive geopolitically.
Disco lights have been placed around the stage to hide the true target. Russia and China know it.
2019:
https://www.heritage.org/middle-east/report/securing-the-strait-hormuz-five-principles-the-us
If they are going to pivot to China they must have it.
Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Jun 21 2025 16:00 utc | 49
Posted by: Tichy | Jun 21 2025 15:42 utc | 30
✊️
If you know, you know!
Posted by: gibb_er_ish | Jun 21 2025 16:01 utc | 50
The US Will Attack Iran From The Prince Sultan Airbase in Saudi Arabia
https://x.com/justinpodur/status/1936433167969206322
"Not a bluff. Not 2 weeks to think about it. Just taking the time to move the bombers into position."
Posted by: JohnGilberts | Jun 21 2025 16:02 utc | 51
Ship tracker live
Pleasure Yacht escape convoys - very active back and forth to from Cyprus ( purple triangles )
Haifa - off shore anchorage getting very crowded. quays ???. Bizare Gyre gone
Ashdod - less traffic versus normal
Eilat - abandoned
Suez Approaches - normal busy
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:34.7/centery:32.4/zoom:7
Posted by: Exile | Jun 21 2025 16:04 utc | 52
The attack on Fordow might be on the cards this weekend afterall.
"3 KC-135R tankers have lifted off from Hickman Air Base, Hawaii, to meet the first batch of B-2 Bombers as they approach the Pacific islands.
This all but confirms they're heading to Guam, and from there a direct strike on Iran is very much possible."
https://nitter.poast.org/GlobeWarReport/status/1936441250393293156#m
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Jun 21 2025 16:05 utc | 53
Iranian Arash and Shahed drones are making it all the way to occupied Palestine.
What failed, among the many layers of defence provided by everyone from the US navy in the Mediterranean, bases in the Gulf, Gulf regime's air defense and Iron Dome?
If neither israel nor it's Western allies can prevent drones from reaching all the way from Persia, what can be said about Iran's capabilities?
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jun 21 2025 16:05 utc | 54
My understanding of the B2 is that it's reduced radar return allows it greater freedom of movement against conventional 70/80's fixed Soviet style air defences. Small gaps or overlaps become huge blind spots which it can navigate, it is not invisible to radar.
Given that the B-2's targets are well known to all of the parties in this conflict and defences could be being held back in anticipation of US involvement, would anyone be surprised to see losses amongst them?
Posted by: Spanish Pipedream | Jun 21 2025 16:06 utc | 55
Painting of Sepoys being blown from English cannons in 1857
https://www.navrangindia.in/2014/12/indian-sepoy-revolt-0f-1857-first-war.html?m=1
Posted by: Exile | Jun 21 2025 16:06 utc | 56
Iran not backing down anytime soon - if this is anything to go by.
"Senior Iranian official: 'Between zero enrichment or war, we will choose war' – Reuters"
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Jun 21 2025 16:07 utc | 57
The US Will Attack Iran From The Prince Sultan Airbase in Saudi Arabia
So why not preemptively hit it? Come to think of it, Iranians could do the whole world a favor and just burn down the Saudi oil fields. That stinking fetid den of scum and USA-vassal villainy deserves it.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jun 21 2025 16:08 utc | 58
Add to that, the Jews are fucking cowards.
Posted by: Tichy | Jun 21 2025 15:46 utc | 36
Highlighted by the fact that their soldiers routinely celebrate killing women and children as proof of their strength. Only an absolute perverted coward would accept shooting fish in a barrel as a win to be celebrated.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Jun 21 2025 16:09 utc | 59
Arch, they aint POWs . They are traitors and franc tirraileurs (sic) Also the British blew Sepoys from their cannons for their treason, so if it is good for Britannia it is good for Iran.Posted by: Total | Jun 21 2025 15:57 utc | 47
No, Iran is not strapping Mossad agents to missiles - it would screw up their flight characteristics.
The British did not blow sepoys from their cannons (their bores were nowhere near wide enough). They were tied spread-eagle in front of the barrels and shot through. Oh,and it was the EIC troops that did it, much to the consternation and disgust of the UK Parliament.
Beware war propaganda.
Posted by: ChatNPC | Jun 21 2025 16:11 utc | 60
How different the situation is from the Iraq war. Then, the US, Uk and France could put together a coalition of hundreds of thousands of troops for occupation, a pipe dream now, without conscription.
Posted by: Bill B | Jun 21 2025 16:11 utc | 61
No, Iran is not strapping Mossad agents to missiles - it would screw up their flight characteristics.
The British did not blow sepoys from their cannons (their bores were nowhere near wide enough). They were tied spread-eagle in front of the barrels and shot through. Oh,and it was the EIC troops that did it, much to the consternation and disgust of the UK Parliament.
Beware war propaganda.
Posted by: ChatNPC | Jun 21 2025 16:11 utc | 59
I thought they'd roast off in a matter of seconds?
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jun 21 2025 16:12 utc | 62
USA national debt is now 37 trillion dollars, according to the Russian Colonel Cassad website.
The USA is a basket case in everything except military power and its tendency to assault others on flimsy pretexts or through savage attack dogs like Israel must be seen in this light.
Posted by: Waldorf | Jun 21 2025 16:13 utc | 63
@Nothingburgers | Jun 21 2025 15:35 utc | 20
"every four years is a leap year"
That's Julian calendar logic, but we use the Gregorian calendar. A leap year is divisible by 4, but if it is divisible by 100, it must also be divisible by 400 to be considered a leap year. Therefore 2000 was a leap year and you lucked out :-)
Posted by: Norwegian | Jun 21 2025 16:13 utc | 64
Trump has a 6 PM EST NSC meeting scheduled in the Oval ofice. He has streamed several of his cabinet meetings from the oval office
Opinions are like assholes, everyones got one...
I suspect Israel will declare victory next week and stop. The US will stay on standby. Israel will declare they set the nuclear program back years so their success is sufficient, for now. Trump's two weeks standby and Israel's announced two week operation come together into one.
When the bombing stops the Persians will stop launching and continue talking.
The Global talking heads will continue to talk. The Zio complex will plan the next round.
Posted by: circumspect | Jun 21 2025 16:14 utc | 65
Posted by: ChatNPC | Jun 21 2025 16:11 utc | 59
Yes, it was the expression “blown from a cannon” and was always understood to mean having a cannon ball shot THROUGH you.
I remember the good old cartoons though ; where the strongman would lie in the cannon and be shot out as a cannon-ball.
Posted by: Total | Jun 21 2025 16:14 utc | 66
The Israeli enemy' is the enemy of all. Down USrael! Victory to Iran! Free Palestine! Brave Yemen!
Posted by: JohnGilberts | Jun 21 2025 15:53 utc | 42
Hear, hear! A toast to that!
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Jun 21 2025 16:15 utc | 67
It would appear the Yanks are desperate for a deal - to stop the further destruction of Zio-land.
"Trump and Erdogan attempted secret U.S.-Iran talks in Istanbul to ease tensions during Israel-Iran conflict.
The plan collapsed as Iran’s supreme leader, reportedly in hiding, couldn't approve.
Trump offered to attend, seeking a nuclear deal to avoid U.S. military action.
(Source: Axios"
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Jun 21 2025 16:16 utc | 68
USA national debt is now 37 trillion dollars, according to the Russian Colonel Cassad website.
The USA is a basket case in everything except military power and its tendency to assault others on flimsy pretexts or through savage attack dogs like Israel must be seen in this light.
Posted by: Waldorf | Jun 21 2025 16:13 utc | 62
Eh, in everything but military power? Basically, it's got a lot of nukes. That's its only real advantage militarily relative to its international opponents. It's just a basket case with nukes.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Jun 21 2025 16:17 utc | 69
The Rand Corporation:
The Flawed Logic of Proportionality
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/06/tic-toc-no-7-on-the-war-on-iran.html#comments
Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Jun 21 2025 16:17 utc | 70
Posted by: the pessimist | Jun 21 2025 15:56 utc | 46
Posted by: lex talionis | Jun 21 2025 16:18 utc | 71
Posted by: Tichy | Jun 21 2025 15:42 utc | 30
"My first computer was the 6502 VIC-20."
Mine 🤣...
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tangerine_Microtan_65
Posted by: gibb_er_ish | Jun 21 2025 16:18 utc | 72
Posted by: circumspect | Jun 21 2025 16:14 utc | 64--
Neither Isreal nor US are able to stop.
Posted by: MorePain4Cakes | Jun 21 2025 16:19 utc | 73
I watched the latest from the "Mizrahi Perspective" and he made a very good point that the Trump administration has in no way readied the US nation for a war with Iran. Here is his latest, his commentary on the internal workings of Israel and its relationship with the US and the world is excellent.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F5dah_99rO0
Just compare this to the build up to even Iraq War #1. Given the colossal economic and financial fallout from such an attack which could destroy the whole of Trump's domestic agenda, and probable US losses, this would be an imperative for any large scale campaign (even an air campaign) against Iran. Iran is a vast mountainous nation of over 90 million with advanced domestic MIC capabilities and supplies from Russia and China. It would also constitute another massive escalation against the global Moslem community, and destruction of US soft power (what remains of it).
The Israeli and US (and most probably UK) elites really believed their own BS and thought that they could deliver a surprise knock-out blow that would completely destabilize Iran. Then the US could just be seen as reacting to the crisis in Iran as it put in place its own puppets a la Syria. As has been the case so many times they had no Plan B and no thought for the problems if their surprise attack failed to topple the state. A classic case of overestimating one's own strength and underestimating one's opponent's. A mistake that the Western elites make again, and again, and again.
Trump is the puppet of a section of the US capitalist oligarchy, and it seems that the oligarchy stepped back from the precipice this week at the prospect of the utter chaos that would be unleashed by a full scale attack upon Iran. The Zionist oligarchs are of course pushing hard for US involvement, but the larger oligarchy views Israel as just a tool of US imperialism and is loath to sacrifice its own power to rescue Israel from the consequences of its own criminal actions. A slow-motion genocide, no problem. The theft of more and more Palestinian land, no problem. The illegal bombings and invasions of Lebanon and Syria, no problem. Wanting the US oligarchy to truly risk its wealth and power by getting bogged down in an Iranian quagmire, while China continues to rise and Russia continues to win in Ukraine, not so fast!
If the interests of Israel are opposed to the interests of the US capitalist oligarchy then suddenly Israel stops being such an asset and becomes a liability. This is the place where Israel now is, and the possibility of the explicit and large scale engagement of the US against Iran is an issue that the US capitalist oligarchy must take time to mull over. Hence, the two week delay that may become quite an elastic temporal concept. This viewpoint may be proven wrong and the bombs may fall, but as of midday Saturday EST no attack has occurred.
Especially when much of the wider societal support for Israel has been greatly reduced by the continuing genocide, and the MAGA coalition is very much splitting on this issue as many call for Trump to honour his commitments of no new foreign wars and a focus on making AMERICA great again. An attack upon Iran may require a level of domestic authoritarianism that will be greatly deleterious to the US economy, greatly damaging US oligarch interests, while forever flushing the US mythical role as "the beacon of democracy" down the toilet.
Political economy and the considerations of a US oligarchy that very much understands economic class in a very Marxist way may very well overrule the lunatic Zionist regime this time. They may have picked a "fight too far" to misquote the title of the movie about the failed "Operation Market Garden" late in WW2 dreamt up by the British. It would not surprise me if the Brits and their MI6 had been very much involved in the planning for the surprise attack on Iran. Repeating their failures of planning within the Russo-Ukrainian War.
The movie "A Bridge Too Far" it has so many lessons about hubris, the dangers of over-complexity, and the ability of the failure of "little things" to undermine the whole, that Western planners and elites need to take to heart.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r6O8rLXB7Qg
Posted by: Roger Boyd | Jun 21 2025 16:19 utc | 74
Caitlin Johnstone:
I’m supposed to hate a country for saying “Death to America”? I yell that during sex.
LOL
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jun 21 2025 16:20 utc | 75
When the bombing stops the Persians will stop launching and continue talking.
Posted by: circumspect | Jun 21 2025 16:14 utc | 64
Why, though? If Netanyahu stops bombing without a deal, it's because things are going incredibly badly for him. The Macron plan was psychotic, and the Witkoff plan was supposedly insufficient. If Iran is "winning," there is zero reason to stop until concessions are made.
Posted by: They Call Me Mister | Jun 21 2025 16:21 utc | 76
Posted by: circumspect | Jun 21 2025 16:14 utc | 64Agreed, this looks like a reasonable scenario to me. What a pity that it doesn't help the people of Gaza.I suspect Israel will declare victory next week and stop. The US will stay on standby. Israel will declare they set the nuclear program back years so their success is sufficient, for now. Trump's two weeks standby and Israel's announced two week operation come together into one.
When the bombing stops the Persians will stop launching and continue talking.
If the reports about damage in Israel are correct then the country will take time to recover. And it's not clear how the population reacts: will those who flee now come back, because "Israel is safe again"? Or will those who cannot flee right now use the first opportunity to make off to USA or Europe?
Posted by: Konami | Jun 21 2025 16:22 utc | 77
A couple of points - I suppose any attack on Iran by the USA, will see a huge cyber attack first, then the attack.
"CENTCOM commanders have given their assent to Trump that all preparations are done
Kuwait announces that it has begun implementing the evacuation plan for its citizens from Iran.
We now only wait for the executive order & we're in play - says U S. Source deployed in Syria in a US mission
Israeli media: Two and a half million Israelis have no shelters and are living in tents in parking lots."
And not sure if this is a threat or not.
"Ali Larijani, a senior Iranian politician to IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi:
When the war is over, we will reach Grossi’s account."
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Jun 21 2025 16:22 utc | 78
It's deja vu all over again.
We've seen the entirety of this playbook before.
Bush I and II, Clinton, Obama, Biden, Trump (x2) - the seven heads of the same hydra.
Look to its past actions to predict its future actions.
Posted by: The Owl | Jun 21 2025 16:23 utc | 79
On a ground force invading Iran.
The Brookings Institute's Which Path to Persia had already layed out the possible scenarios in 2009
https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/06_iran_strategy.pdf (PDF warning)
Put simply, the US doesn't have the forces to do this without calling up the National Guard and the Army reserves. It would be incredibly unpopular (unless there's a 9/11 2.0) and the US forces are likely to suffer much higher casualties than they did in Iraq. Victory is possible if Russia, China, Pakistan, etc. stay out of it.
Brookings assumed vistory, but, in my opinion, that was 2009, today it can no longer be assumed. Drones and EW have changed the game and US heavy weapons no longer assure battlefield success over a less heavily armed opponent.
Anything short of total war by the US (war time economy, draft, etc.) or nuclear strikes result in an Iranian victory. And, if the US goes all in or someone uses nukes, likely Israel, it cannot be assumed that Russia, China, etc. will stay out of it.
Posted by: team10tim | Jun 21 2025 16:23 utc | 80
‼️ Yemeni Armed Forces Spokesman, Yahya Saree, has announced they are ready to attack all US ships and warships in the Red Sea if they attack Iran.
https://t.me/presstv/145561
▶️ Fox News pundit compares bombing Iran to fictional Hollywood blockbuster ‘Top Gun’.
https://t.me/presstv/145562
US war plans are made in Hollywood
🔴 Iran Health Ministry: Israeli regime attacked three hospitals, six ambulances since June 13
https://t.me/presstv/145566
🇮🇱🇮🇷Israeli military spokesman to Fox News:
Our goal is to ensure that Iran is in chaos
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/152829
🇷🇺🇮🇱🇮🇷 Dmitry Medvedev on Twitter: If the West wants nuclear disarmament, start with Israel. Iran won’t back down—no matter the threats.
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/152836
Posted by: Norwegian | Jun 21 2025 16:24 utc | 81
🇺🇸⚡- B2 Bombers over California airspace, the last check-in before the Pacific arena. A KC-46 tanker from Travis Air Force Base carried out refueling before the bombers head off into sea.
The bombers can launch silent attacks on Iran from Guam, and not even land at Diego Garcia.
🇺🇸🇸🇦🇮🇷 The US Air Force is building a massive aircraft fleet at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia.
@CIG_telegram
Posted by: Jo | Jun 21 2025 16:24 utc | 82
it is interesting putting these 2 posts side by side... it does and doesn't add up... obviously it's complicated.. thanks you two..
@ Bingo | Jun 21 2025 15:56 utc | 45 and @ Waldorf | Jun 21 2025 16:13 utc | 62
Posted by: james | Jun 21 2025 16:25 utc | 83
Big problem with nukes is they seriously interfere with the profit motive of war, nukes negate it, their effiency outright eradicates it. One 70 kilotoner does the work of a trillion dollars in conventional weapons, plus they either bring the war to fast end or the world to a fast end. Where's the profit in that?
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jun 21 2025 16:26 utc | 84
ChatNPC @16:11
“ it was the EIC troops that did it, much to the consternation and disgust of the UK Parliament.”
Today we call this “plausible deniability”
Did the Brit gov takeover the EIC or did the EIC takeover the British government?
Posted by: will moon | Jun 21 2025 16:30 utc | 85
8 - How many of the "opposition freedom fighters" in say, Syria, were motivated by Islamist or political principles and how many were there for a pay-out from Turkey, the USA or even Israel in a sanctions-wrecked economy? The swift collapse of the Syrian Army in late 2024 seems to have been partly due to poverty and perhaps senior commanders taking bribes to stand down.
Using sanctions to implode society in a targeted country seems to be part of the regime change package. That poverty has driven people to work for Mossad in Iran is quite credible.
Posted by: Waldorf | Jun 21 2025 16:30 utc | 86
alex krainer from today
"Transcending the forever wars
For all the rest of us, the legitimate question is this: do we want to be permanently at war, so that a tiny segment of people in our society can plunder a colossal horad of other people’s wealth and then use it for their own devious ends? I think the answer is quite obvious. But to transcend this tragic interval of history, Western oligarchy’s influence will have to be quarantined somehow and the financial system they developed will have to be reformed so that the incentives that drive conquest, colonization and imperialism are forever removed."
should be able to get the preview of the article here..
Posted by: james | Jun 21 2025 16:32 utc | 87
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jun 21 2025 16:26 utc | 83Not just in military efficiency. Usually there's war over a territory because both sides want the land. Using nuclear weapons reduces, possibly removes, the potential to make profit from reconstruction and exploiting the natural resources and the local population. (A quick internet search tells me that a tactical nuclear makes the target area uninhabitable for months, perhaps years -- so no quick return of investments...)Big problem with nukes is they seriously interfere with the profit motive of war
In that sense, it's a badly uncapitalist weapon type.
Posted by: Konami | Jun 21 2025 16:34 utc | 88
What I’m seeing reading comments across Xwitter, youtoob and blogs with a diametrically un-MoA perspective…. There’s a lot of ex-mil guys talking tuff about eye-Raq.
“Back to the sandbox guys, time to teach these ragheads another lesson. USAUSAUSA.”
*Sandbox. Hmmm. It seems thousands of ex-mil guys are unaware that the topography of Iran differs vastly from Eye-Raq.
There’s an old muscle memory of *Desert* Storm…charging across the sands at breakneck speed in humvees and similar.
Some (very few) are aware Iran is a mountain fortress and that’s been its geographic advantage for two or three millennium.
I’m sure some in the pentagon know the difference.
But I think there’s enough old timers, still serving, who think taking Iran will be a just a dust-off of the Shock and Awe Iraq playbook.
Posted by: Melaleuca | Jun 21 2025 16:36 utc | 89
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jun 21 2025 16:05 utc | 53
######
In the moment of conflict, vaunted American ISR turned out to be a Kaleidoscope.
Everything we have been told are lies. Everything.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jun 21 2025 16:36 utc | 90
For Ukrainian terrorism to stop, the country must go 404, that is Russian troops at the Polish border.
For Isreal terrorism to stop, ...
Posted by: MorePain4Cakes | Jun 21 2025 16:36 utc | 91
Posted by: Roger Boyd | Jun 21 2025 16:19 utc | 73
Excellent, thought provoking post. I dont say that because it aligns with my own impressions, but it does indeed. Along with Israel clearly having 'bitten off more than it can chew' and within a week already seeing serious damage, which serves to help sharpen minds on the specific point. Do they want to risk their power for what is supposed to be a 'proxy'? Does the tail wag the dog?
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jun 21 2025 16:37 utc | 92
I don’t think we could get away with that.
Posted by: WJ | Jun 21 2025 15:43 utc | 31
I don't understand why not. At their 2023 summit, the 9 heads of the G7 concluded.
We hereby pledge, from Hiroshima, the "symbol of peace", that G7 members will mobilize all our policy instruments and, together with Ukraine, make every effort to bring a comprehensive, just and lasting peace in Ukraine as soon as possible.More recently while scrolling through TikTok I learned that bombing Hiroshima and Nagasaki started WWII.
Posted by: sln2002 | Jun 21 2025 16:39 utc | 93
Seems unlikely this will end with negotiations because nobody trusts the west.
Israel can't sustain long term daily strikes. US can't really stop nuclear enrichment.
So this will be a typical US "wreck everything" campaign ending in their main goal to reduce oil exports to China, and slow down construction of corridors to Russia and China. They can't penetrate inland so they will ruin oil facilities on the coast.
It will taper off with some kind of trade around oil exports. There is no win for US except if they hurt China.
Israel is in rough shape either way. Orange Juice will print money for rebuilding broken Zionist stuff but Israel has a permanent problem with demographics.
Iran will hopefully get rid of their Western loving traitors. That will be brutal.
Posted by: Pym of Nantucket | Jun 21 2025 16:39 utc | 94
Posted by: Roger Boyd | Jun 21 2025 16:19 utc | 73
"We had no choice"
They have been indoctrinated 24/7 that they are victims from the moment of birth. Payed trips to concentration camps in Easter Europe does its job. Then there is military service where they sit on roof tops and sniper kids throwing rocks or simply walking. Israelis are mentally sick. With the latest genocide operation in Gaza it will get worst. Those video of people who are not Jews wanting to get into bomb shelters speak LOUDLY.
These people are damaged. There is no help for them.
Posted by: Tom_12 | Jun 21 2025 16:40 utc | 95
@Posted by: Bingo | Jun 21 2025 15:56 utc | 45
The Chinese are rapidly removing a dependency upon oil from their transport system, not just with personal electric vehicles and increased efficiency standards for ICE vehicles, but also in the light and heavy goods trucking segment. In 2024 China experienced a small drop in oil consumption and in oil imports (from 11.3 to 11.1 million barrels per day [mbpd]). That will accelerate as EVs rapidly approach nearly 100% of personal vehicles sold, helped by state subsidies to scrap older vehicles (the less fuel efficient ones), and become a larger and larger percentage of the trucking fleet.
China has a massive strategic oil reserve and can also stop the export of oil products that currently account for 1 mbpd of oil imports. In any oil supply shock the state can also redirect citizens to more greatly utilize the electric transport infrastructure and reduce some unnecessary industrial uses (e.g. shipping cheap low profitability crap to the US and West). It can also substantially intensify the move to electrification through the greater support for the scrapping of older ICE vehicles.
In many ways an oil supply shock could be used as an opportunity stemming from a crisis by the Chinese state. Its exports of wind turbines, solar cells, intelligent grids, nuclear power stations, electric trains, electric trams, electric subways, electric personal vehicles, electric trucks, electric buses etc. would greatly benefit from an oil supply shock and perhaps the destruction of much of the oil infrastructure of the Middle East. The juxtaposition of crisis/opportunity is found many times within Chinese culture, one that can be well utilized by the efficient and effective Chinese Party-state.
It is the West, and most especially Europe, that would suffer heavily from an oil supply shock. Probably tripping he next Euro crisis. The vast majority of the Us citizenry would also suffer greatly, while a few oligarchs and corporations make out like bandits. Not a good look for a MAGA president.
Posted by: Roger Boyd | Jun 21 2025 16:40 utc | 96
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Jun 21 2025 16:17 utc | 68>
Friends, allow me to present my preferred and oft-repeated formulation. America is a reality show with nukes. The media aspects of the Maerican Empire are its most distinguishing characteristic. 'Empire of Lies' is a good term also.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jun 21 2025 16:41 utc | 97
But to transcend this tragic interval of history, Western oligarchy’s influence will have to be quarantined somehow and the financial system they developed will have to be reformed so that the incentives that drive conquest, colonization and imperialism are forever removed."
Transcending the forever wars
Key Markets report for Friday, 20 Jun 2025
Alex Krainer
Jun 21, 2025
∙ Paid
should be able to get the preview of the article here..
Posted by: james | Jun 21 2025 16:32 utc | 86
Oh history, of which the people of the west have been systematically deprived for at least my lifetime, shows a very clear, organic way to "quarantine" the oligarchs "so that the incentives that drive conquest, colonization and imperialism are forever removed".
It's been done before and can be done again much more effectively today as most of the globe suffer the same kind of wage slavery, although in different degrees. An objective, material unity that precedes consciousness of the fact.
Build a credible revolutionary party and most of the world will come. Billions of wage slaves are quietly waiting for it, now more than ever.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Jun 21 2025 16:42 utc | 98
@MorePain4Cakes | Jun 21 2025 16:36 utc | 90
For Ukrainian terrorism to stop, the country must go 404, that is Russian troops at the Polish border.... it must become Wasreal, that is Palestine is no longer occupied.
For Isreal terrorism to stop, ...
Posted by: Norwegian | Jun 21 2025 16:43 utc | 99
4 carriers, 10 B2 bombers, old B52 and about 400 fighters only make sense if they want to go all in.
Using bombers from Missouri is suspicious to me, that's where it is easiest to load nukes.
If I had to wargame this I would try to suppress AD with as many Growlers as I can get my hands on, flood the target airspace with as much noise and chaff as possible to make room for bomber runs.
3 waves, first MOP, then MOP, then B61-11 nuke. While all this is done, attack some ports and headquarters as well. Israel will take that part.
I wonder if Iran would go all out too on the carriers and Diego Garcia - I doubt it though.
Not much they can do.
There is no plan for day 2 or beyond.
Posted by: SOS | Jun 21 2025 16:44 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
The last act of desperation before total collapse? All the lies we've been fed over and over since the end of WWII being exposed on the daily now. Not as smart as they thought they were. Be interesting to see where loyalties lie now.
Posted by: Watzov | Jun 21 2025 15:07 utc | 1