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Tic-Toc 10 On The War On Iran – Summing Up The First Round
USrael's long planned attack to regime change Iran did fail.
Control by the military and political leadership of Iran was never in doubt. Attempts to kill Ayatollah Khamenei were unsuccessful (and would have not mattered at all). The military response to the Israeli attack was quick and successful.
After just twelve days of war Israel sued for peace. Iran agreed but may well rue that decision in future.
It had the advantage of being able to fight and win an attritional war against Israel. At the same time it could control U.S. reactions by its dominance over the oil-flow through the Strait of Hormuz. Holding the war for a few days or weeks, as is done now, will only give time to Israel to prepare for next round.
Israel's understanding of the current ceasefire is that it will allow it to hit again at Iran as soon as the U.S. has refilled its munition storage:
Katz told the news outlets that Israel maintained aerial superiority over Iran and was poised to strike again.
“We won’t let Iran develop nuclear weapons and threatening long-range missiles,” he told Channel 12. To Channel 13, the defense minister said: “The main point is that the policy of the State of Israel and the government of Israel is to implement enforcement actions against Iran.”
He said the policy would be “like in Lebanon” — where Israel has targeted Hezbollah’s attempts to rearm — “just times 100.”
Tehran is likely ready to hit back.
A secondary objective of the regime change war against Iran was to eliminate its nuclear program. That part also failed.
Several strikes have damaged Iran's primary enrichment facilities. But it has retained the highly enriched Uranium. It also retained a sufficient number of its most modern centrifuges and so far unused underground facilities to further enrich it to weapon's grade. Should Iran decide to make nuclear weapons it could have them within a few months.
Iran has ended all cooperation with the IAEA. The eyes and ears of western intelligence on the ground in Iran are no longer there. Future strikes will thus lack precision.
Trump bombing attack against the underground enrichment facility in Fordow was supposed to be a one-and-done-with operation. He wanted to to do away with the Iran problem to get on with his domestic program.
But the brashness of insisting that Iran's nuclear program was 'obliterated' is coming back at haunt him. He will be pressed to do more even while there is little left that can be done.
Background
Iran justly hates America for installing and supporting the puppet Shah regime. Iran justly hates Israel for being an American agent and for it’s cruel criminality toward the Palestinians.
Israel is small and weak. Iran is large and strong. Therefore out of fear Israel categorizes Iran as an “existential threat”. Even a lame, one-eyed cat is an existential threat to a mouse.
America is strong but dumb. Bullies can brook no defiance, so American hegemononists regard Iran as a constant thorn in their side.
So America and Israel share a dislike for Iran and Iran dislikes Israel and America.
With nukes, Israel and America are existential threats to Iran. In response, with nuclear enrichment Iran can be an existential threat to Israel even without nuclear weapons.
Nuclear enrichment is permitted under the NPT, and nuclear weapons are not. So in order to justify threats, attacks and economic warfare, it is necessary for the US and Israel to assert that Iran is making nuclear weapons. (Even though all authorities refute that.)
The Lead Up
Israel wants Iran to be weakened to reduce the its own fears. Israel wants Iran defanged so it can’t support Israel’s victims. Israel wants America to fight Iran for it.
Israel knows its weapons cannot do significant harm to Iran on a strategic level, including the nuclear enrichment sites. So Israel came up with a plan to overthrow the Iranian government. The plan involved fifth column elements in Iran to carry out a coup, and a strong destabilizing decapitation strike by Israel to enable it.
Israel can’t fly it’s planes safely over Iran to do decapitation strikes with Iran’s AD working. So a key part of the plan is to shut down the AD using a radio-inserted software virus to be delivered by Israeli experts working on site with fifth column elements in Iran. It’s a good plan, and they get to work putting it in place.
The Turning Point
In early June, Iran snared a treasure trove of Israeli intelligence. This included enough information to expose (and thus nullify) Israel’s regime-change plan. At this point, Israel had to choose to either use-it or lose-it. Driven by its usual hate, hubris, solipsism, fanaticism, and adding a worsening domestic situation and Bibi’s corruption problems, Israel chose to use-it even though it was premature.
So Israel’s sleazy attack was rushed ahead of schedule and they had no time to recruit the (potentially resistant) Trump administration to greenlight it. (Note that the usual level of coordinated stridency had not been built up in the MSM before the attack. While the co-opted head of the IAEA had spewed a few lies on June 12, it had not yet been widely circulated and gravely imprimatured by the Sunday pundits.
Also, after the vile zionists did their paltry attack, the puppet leaders of rabid ‘western’ countries were weirdly silent, presumably because they hadn’t gotten any scripting.
Also weirdly silent was Trump, except for a couple of tepid, canned remarks favoring Israel in a rather pro forma way. Further in support of Trump not approving is the timing. It really seemed to take some wind out of his big parade. It seemed like he only got the B-teams with the A-teams somewhere busy prepping for eventualities.
Furthermore, Israel coming around mooching for the necessary bombs only after the events got rolling smacks of unpreparedness as well. Even Bibi’s hasty scurry to Greece even suggests he had some reservations about the move.
So Israel attacked. The plan worked well for a few hours, giving Israeli planes freedom to bomb over Iran. Three problems arose quickly, however: (1) the Iranian regime was far more resiliant than Israel hoped, (2) Iran restored its air defenses before Israel was able to complete their physical destruction, and (3) (what they should have already understood) Iran’s offensive missile capabilities are devastatingly effective.
So suddenly Israel is caught, it’s strategy in disarray, no means to bring the fight to Iran effectively, and being pasted by missiles. And Iran, having been attacked, has every justification to bash Israel and no incentive to stop.
Israel is fucked, so it runs whining to America to pull its ass out of the fire. Trump doesn’t want a politically disadvantageous and economically destructive war with Iran, but the scumbag neocons and Israel Firsters still have influence, so he is compelled to do something.
The Trump Ploy
Israel knows, America knows, and Iran knows that Iran is not making nuclear weapons. But the assertion of nuclear weapons has become the fulcrum for US and Israeli hostility against Iran. So the solution that works for everybody is for everyone to pretend that a brilliant military maneuover removes the (imaginary) threat of nuclear weapons.
Every party gets something:
-Trump satisfies his zionist supporters by saving Israel, and he successfully avoids a ruinous conflict with Iran;
-Iran avoids a ruinous conflict with America, and is alleviated from the false accusations of nuclear weapons while retaining the enrichment program;
-Israel gets its ass saved from more destruction, and Bibi has a small window to claim is connivance was successful in ending the (never really there) Iranian nuclear weapons program.
The Final Tally
Israel lost trust with the Trump administration, billions of dollars of equipment and infrastructure, many lives, the nuclear stick to whack Iran with, much of its networks in Iran, and any remaining confidence in it’s defenses. Israel gained virtually nothing.
The Trump administration lost the confidence of the ‘isolationist’ wing of MAGA, and some fraction of the perception of American’s pre-eminence, and the nuclear stick to whack Iran with. It gained being less influenced by zionist elements who had to spend their favors and share the losses of Israel noted above.
Iran lost some important people, and billions of dollars of equipment and infrastructure. It gained an evident military victory over Israel, and freedom from the false accusations about a weapons program.
Posted by: Figleaf23 | Jun 27 2025 16:45 utc | 3
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