|
Mark Sleboda – What the Hell Just Happened in the Middle East You May Ask?
Mark Sleboda is summarizing his view of the current episode in the war on Iran (slightly edited for clarity):
What the Hell Just Happened in the Middle East You May Ask?
My take –
The US/Israel realized:
- that their regime change plans were not coming to fruition,
- that the Iranian govt had more support and stronger foundations than they had believed,
- that Israeli air defense was collapsing/exhausted and
- that an attrition war of long range strike was going to go badly for Israel.
- And Trump began to get freaked out over the rising price of oil with the Iranian threat of closing the strait of Hormuz.
So they wrapped it up, declared victory, and demanded a ceasefire.
Iran agreed because they too have been badly shaken through Israeli covert warfare and their own air defense all but collapsed.
The can will only be kicked down the road, and both sides will start rebuilding, and making preparations and plans for the next round, the next war. This was only a skirmish at the end of the day …
Iran, for surviving, maintaining a civilian nuclear enrichment program, and for the fact that it was the US/Israel that pushed for the "ceasefire", comes out slightly ahead on points.
The biggest loser – the collapse of the NNPT and international law.
Israel is already thinking about restarting the war.
But in the long term Sleboda's last point is the most important one. The Non-Nuclear Proliferation Treaty has kept a cap on the number of countries with nuclear weapons. The attack on Iran's civilian nuclear installation, and the lack of a serious IAEA's reaction to it, proves that the NNTP fails to provide the security it once had promised.
No only Iran will take conclusions from that.
Iran's parliament has, for good reasons, decided to stop all cooperation with the IAEA.
It seems to have support for this from Russia:
"IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi could have provided a more precise report," [Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei] Lavrov said. "He is now insisting that Iran grant the agency immediate access to its nuclear facilities to verify the whereabouts of enriched materials and assess the situation on the ground. But where are the assurances that this information won’t be leaked? I see no such safeguards."
Lavrov also pointed to broader concerns about the neutrality of international institutions. "This ties into what I mentioned earlier: the West is exerting serious influence over the secretariats of international organizations. In some cases, it’s as though they have been effectively privatized," he remarked.
The West is demolishing the international order that had, for the last 80 years, provided some 'rules of the road' in global behavior. The U.S. is preventing the World Trade Organization from doing its job. The agreements that limited nuclear weapons were done away with one by one. The recent conflict blew up the NNPT and further diminished the UN Charter.
The consequences go far beyond the Middle East. They makes the world less peaceful.
A strategic summary/overview , all in quotes, from:
https://t-me.translate.goog/s/october7_23?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en
Behind the lines
The War on the Iranian Front Halts: Between the Expected and the Unexpected
Mohammed Subaih,
Researcher in Strategic and Defense Studies.
In a remarkable statement, US President Donald Trump announced the end of the war on Iran. This was a pivotal, even shocking, moment on the regional and international scene; a moment that requires us to conduct a comprehensive strategic review of the course of the last round of the war, analyze what both sides achieved—and what they did not achieve—and anticipate the outcomes of this military phase of the conflict.
🔸First: A war that broke the rules
. From the outbreak of this war, it became clear that it was unlike any previous war. The war, which has been ongoing since October 7, broke traditional and unconventional rules, disrupted the international and regional order, and even overturned many military axioms. However, the one constant—on which leading military theorists agree—is that the course and outcomes of war cannot be predicted. It is a constantly changing, dynamic entity.
This constant was exceptionally evident in this round; it was never expected that the war would stop at this point. Neither the American nor the Zionist sides achieved the pinnacle of their objectives, neither militarily nor politically.
As we noted in our previous assessment, the Zionist entity’s strategic situation was and remains fragile and weak, giving Iran ample room to bypass the option of surrender, avoid being dragged into a comprehensive war, and instead push toward a scenario of prolonged attrition.
But the most striking surprise is that the entity’s strategic position was even weaker than we had expected, as it accepted the gains it had achieved—which were not clear in reality—and which barely exceeded the enthusiastic speeches of Netanyahu and Trump.
🔸Second: The American strike… superficial losses, not strategic ones.
The strike targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities, despite its military scale and the accompanying media hype, did not achieve its declared strategic objective: disrupting or ending the Iranian nuclear program. From the outset, Iran was aware that a strike was coming and took the necessary preemptive measures, most notably removing radioactive materials from the targeted sites. These materials, in their original state, could be used to manufacture nuclear weapons within weeks, or dirty bombs even sooner.
What was actually destroyed was limited to infrastructure and buildings, which could be rebuilt within a few years—that is, if Iran had not already established covert alternatives in undeclared locations.
If the strike’s objective was to deprive Iran of nuclear know-how, it undoubtedly failed miserably, as this know-how has become part of the state’s institutional and scientific infrastructure and cannot be targeted or destroyed by bombs. Iran today possesses the skills, expertise, and capabilities to restart any facility and even develop its program more rapidly than ever before.
🔸 Third: The Zionist entity is in a strategic predicament.
The Zionist entity entered this round at its lowest strategic point since its founding. Despite unlimited American support and full air and intelligence cover, Israel remained vulnerable to precision missile strikes. Within a few days, the skies over Tel Aviv were transformed into a missile corridor, while air defense systems—despite their multiplicity and overlap—were unable to secure Israel’s interior.
Israel emerged as a fragile state, unable to protect itself, neither to its domestic audience nor to the international community. This exposure coincided with a complete inability to achieve its central war objectives, especially on the Gaza front. Despite the occupation government’s attempts to impose new facts on the ground to improve its strategic security environment, the results demonstrate their inability to achieve this, and Netanyahu’s daydreams of shaping a new Middle East have gone up in smoke.
Iran still maintains its nuclear project, even if some of its facilities have been disabled. Hezbollah is present and rebuilding its forces despite the blows it has suffered. Hamas is steadfast and fighting fiercely, while the Ansar Allah in Yemen continue to launch their ballistic missiles daily toward the heart of the entity and its vital interests.
Internally, the state of panic has reached its peak. Waves of reverse migration are accelerating, and the conviction has deepened among the occupiers that this land is no longer safe, and that the “State of Israel” is no longer capable of protecting them.
🔸 Fourth: Why did they stop then?
It seems that all parties realized that the continuation of this round of war would lead to a strategic catastrophe, especially for the Zionist entity. Continuing the confrontation for additional weeks would have accelerated the collapse of the Israeli home front, given the clear inability to achieve a decisive victory and the continued attrition on several fronts. This is where talks of nuclear attacks began to loom.
As for Iran, despite the painful blows it received, especially among its first-class military leadership, it demonstrated its ability to absorb the attack and mount an appropriate response at the appropriate time. Its response was measured, yet symbolically high, indicating its ability to mount a painful response and its readiness to wage a long war if imposed upon it.
Tehran sent a clear concluding message: “We have the capability, and we know how to time it.” This message has certainly reached not only the entity, but also all those concerned with this war in the region and beyond.
🔸 Fifth: Iran as a Regional Power After the War
If the war does indeed stop at this point, Iran emerges from it as a strategic victor, with more than one clear indicator:
• First : According to information from the Iranian Atomic Energy Agency, Tehran has preserved its nuclear program, its infrastructure, and its knowledge against military strikes, despite the bombing that targeted it from all sides.
• Second : It has demonstrated its ability to deter and deliver precise strikes deep into Zionist territory, a precedent that will be credited to it and redefine the rules of engagement in the region.
• Third : It has emerged from the round as a regional power to be reckoned with, not only by the Zionist entity, but also by the Arab states that have normalized relations with it, or considered doing so to avoid an imagined Iranian threat.
Conversely, the Zionist entity emerges from this round weaker and more isolated than ever. It has lost what remains of its image as a deterrent force capable of imposing new regional realities, and it has been unable to withstand Iran for more than two weeks of aerial combat and mutual bombardment. Today, he is forced to rethink his regional strategies and the image of the “protecting power” he has tried to market to his allies, especially those who have bet on him to eliminate Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran.
🔸 Sixth: The Gaza Front… The Moral and Political Test
In analyzing the outcomes of the Iranian-Zionist round, one cannot ignore the front that was the initial spark for all that happened: the Gaza front . Politically and morally, Iran is supposed to link its decision to cease confrontation with the entity to an end to its aggression against the Gaza Strip, especially in light of the escalating massacres, the mounting pressure on civilians, and the unprecedented levels of famine and exhaustion. Any Iranian decision to de-escalate its front separately from the Gaza front—which represents the heart of the clash and its initial spark—will be widely interpreted as a move by which individual interests prevail over collective responsibility , especially given that Iran is the largest supporter and most prominent partner of the Palestinian resistance, both politically and militarily.
While political realism may theoretically justify any country’s decisions based on its national security considerations, the fact remains that any Iranian abandonment of its commitments to Gaza now would be a resounding moral downfall for its Islamic resistance project and a direct blow to its credibility before the peoples of the region and the free people of the world.
Continued support for Gaza is not only a fulfillment of our partnerships and the shared destiny of the resistance, but it is also a true test of the legitimacy of the Islamic discourse that Tehran has embraced for decades. Iran, which has long championed the oppressed and made Palestine the central issue, will face a defining moment: either it asserts its leadership of this resistance camp and prioritizes principles over opportunism, or it retreats and puts the legacy of the axis of resistance on the line, facing significant, meaningful, and serious questions.
We hope—with all political and moral awareness—that this round will not be a moment of moral collapse , but rather an opportunity to strengthen Iran’s principled position and consolidate its leadership in the resistance camp, in the face of a crisis-ridden Zionist project that has lost its moral and political compass.
🔸 Seventh: The Arabs and the Tragedy of the Lack of a Project
Amid these major strategic transformations, the Arab scene appears to be one of the most dire and enduring tragedies. The region is seething with conflicts and competing projects, from an Iranian project possessing a strategic vision and depth, to a Turkish project attempting to regain its influence, while a Zionist project continues its aggression and attempts to dominate the region through blood and sword. Unfortunately, the Arabs are completely outside the equation.
There is no unified Arab project, no unified leadership, and not even a truly independent political will. Some regimes have bet on a crumbling entity, deludedly believing it would be a “guarantor of their security” and a source of protection from their regional adversaries. Instead, they are unable to protect themselves for two weeks from successive missile strikes, and are unable to restore their image domestically or internationally.
However, responsibility does not fall solely on the regimes. The people, as well as the societal and political elites, are fully aware of the gravity of this situation and that continuing on this absurd and disastrous path is a long-term political and civilizational suicide.
The decision and keys to change lie in the hands of the people . We cannot rely on external forces or beholden regimes to shape a future for our peoples. Either these peoples rise up to reshape their independent and integrated civilizational project, or they will be left easy prey to other projects, consumed, exploited, and depleted, without a say in the future of the region or the world.
🔸 In conclusion: The illusion of hegemony and the new Middle East.
Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire, while seemingly an end to a bloody round of fighting, does nothing to change the core reality: the region stands on the cusp of major strategic transformations and a new phase of power balances, in which there will be no place for the weak, the subservient, or those who have mortgaged their fate to the projects of others.
Iran—through its accumulated knowledge, resilience, and thoughtful management of the conflict—has consolidated its position as a major regional actor that cannot be bypassed or imposed upon. Meanwhile, the Zionist entity has emerged from this round in a defensive and troubled position, having lost much of its prestige and deterrence, and has become, even in the eyes of its supporters, a burden rather than a reliable tool for managing their interests.
In this context, the peoples of the region are called upon today to redefine their priorities and shatter the illusion of “Western hegemony” and the “new Middle East” project, which was promoted as a solution, only to generate more chaos, dependency, and division. There is no salvation for this nation except through an independent project that expresses its interests, guarantees its security, and is based on the unity and free will of its peoples.
As for the Gaza front, the cradle of all events, it will remain the open wound and the compass that reveals positions. It is expected that this Iranian-Zionist round will cast a heavy shadow over the course of the war there, and may accelerate—due to mutual exhaustion—the ripening of conditions for halting the Zionist aggression. However, the price we are paying is heavy and continues. The only bet will remain on the steadfastness and perseverance of the Palestinian people, and the strength and wisdom of their resistance.
This war has exposed everyone, confronted each party with its true nature, and put every project to the test of its value.
Posted by: Ornot | Jun 26 2025 1:17 utc | 277
For far too long now imperialist adventures have had all the novelty and shock value of a snyderesque formulaic hollywood script “Save the Woke” where amerika races in and does something it proclaims is of great service to women, gays ‘n anyone else they have deemed woke, however underneath that thin patina of pretense, the empire rapes, murders and above all steal. How it steals any resource that isn’t firmly nailed down, where nailed down means being owned by a well regarded western conglomerate, is purloined in the name of “amerika’s interests”.
That worked for a time but just like the equally zionist controlled hollywood plots imperial strategies seek to emulate, the plots become too familiar revealing not only the connection between events the empire claimed were totally disparate – nothing to do with each other, it also reveals the paucity of imperial intelligence. This means that in addition to the offense created for people who support what they consider to be normal decent human behaviour, even those amerikans & like-minded sycophants overseas become negative & ‘fidgety’ because there is no originality in what they see as their diversion – watching unfortunate people of so-called others has become mundane, boring in fact.
We all know the signs of contemporary imperial efforts to hang on to what they had: surprise attacks during diplomatic negotiations, great effort expended to placate zionism & zionists, initially either flat denials or over-the-top boasting of responsibility for the event. This bits is telegraphed word for word, with stock sick phraseology incessantly and ubiquitously by corporate media until the entire western population sees buildings, ‘adversaries’ and their children exploding in glorious colour even when we close our eyes. “Ah the horror, the horror” we are meant to think as many of us recoil from the empire’s inhumanity, whilst other better indoctrinated citizens cry “the animals, they don’t deserve to live kill ’em all”. The latter types are inevitably disappointed when the raping & killing slows to be replaced by the inevitable enslavement of those humans who many required slaughtered, because the empire wants them to feel insult added to injury by making locals participate in their debasement by requiring locals to recover then pass over to amerika that which amerika wishes to steal.
Right now is an incredibly dangerous time for Iran and Iranians. I certainly hope it continues as Sayed Marandi said it had begun, with nearly all Iranians determined that they themselves can sort out any problems in their state.
I doubt that will continue as Iran prides itself on being a fair and just society, yet the nature of the empire requires that any state the empire has subjected to the hairy eyeball not permit foreign funded entities be permitted to led weak-minded, credulous and greedy humans astray.
Masoud Pezeshkian is all of those things as he listens to and believes whatever nonsense amerikan diplomats, ngo’s and media tell him. He doesn’t appear stupid as prior to politics Pezeshkian worked as a university academic, however knowledge and common sense are known to be able to appear in humans on their own, one without the other and it seems likely that he is a prime example of being able to accumulate great knowledge without the least implication of the commonsense humans need to be able to utilise their knowledge.
A great deal depends on the construction of Iran’s Guardian Council this to quote Iranica Online is:
“a powerful 12-member council with vast legislative and executive jurisdictions that forms a cornerstone of the Islamic Republic’s Constitution (q.v.). According to Art. 91 of the Constitution, it consists of twelve members, six of whom are theologians (foqahā) and six are jurists (ḥoquqdān) versed in different legal branches. The former are appointed by the “supreme leader,” the latter are elected by parliament (Majles) from among the “Muslim jurists” introduced by the head of the judicial system; the head of the judicial system is also appointed by the leader. The duration of their term in office is six years (Art. 92 of the Constitution). The scope of the Guardian Council’s various powers, as set out in the Constitution, will be discussed in four sections: legislative jurisdiction, the interpretation of the constitution, supervision of elections, and other prerogatives.”
From what I can see the Guardian Council who approved both Pezeshkian’s candidacy as Prez and his election, tends to follow the popular will as much as possible. eg they approved Mahmoud Ahmadinejad twice; a bloke whose policies Iran could handle a big shot of right now because they run counter to Pezeshkian’s desire to kiss and make up with amerika.
There is no chance of another radical islamist or radical islamist policies right now, but that does not mean the Council of Guardians who will make the final decision on whether Iran’s legislation to leave the NPT and the spying of the IAEA behind them becomes reality will aquiesse to amerika & the zionists. AFAIK the Guardian Council has the power to overrule the Supreme Leader making it the peak political and social body in Iran because the Guardian Council selects the members of the ‘Assembly of Experts’ who oversee and select the Supreme Leader.
In other words Iran’s leaders are subjected to a lot more supervision and guidance than executive government in western states who (as in the case of england) is overseen by the unelected head of state or (in the case of amerika) is overseen by a peak judicial body eg the Supreme Court.
In theory it could be possible for an elected prez to somehow stack the Guardian Council or Assembly of experts, except the staggered nature of election and the lengthy periods they serve (8 year terms between election) makes the capture of these bodies by a particular mode of thinking far more difficult than somewhere such as amerika or england.
If the Guardian Council observes that Iranians’ attitude towards rapprochement with the west has changed for the worse since the attacks, then it is most unlikely they will vote down the bill requiring Iran to prohibit IAEA spying. Even continued negotiating with amerika could be prohibited if Parliament requests it.
Working with the Assembly of Experts, the Guardian Council could in theory overrule the fatwa on nukes, however that is not likely as it would involve so many people there would be no secrecy.
That of itself would be more likely to be instigated by the Assembly of Experts who number 12 and are made up equally of experts in Islamic law and experts in secular laws.
Of course they may not have to, the Supreme leader could decide to revoke the fatwa himself. The assembly of experts would know but all the rest would be strictly need to know.
This structure may seem complicated to us but it is surprisingly agile as we observed during the 12 days of zionist attempts to murder Iranians.
I hope these adjudicators will come to a decision that not only preserves Iranian independence and sovereignty but does so well into the future.
Posted by: Debsisdead | Jun 26 2025 2:04 utc | 294
|
