War In Ukraine - The Mineral Deal Pulls Trump Back In
This week the U.S. and Ukraine signed a 'mineral deal'. It will allow the U.S. to profit from all future explorations of minerals and hydrocarbons in the grounds controlled by the Kiev regime.
The deal grew out of a scheme the (former) President Zelenski had peddled within the framework of his 'victory plan' last year. He had hopped to entice further support in form of weapons and even direct military intervention against Russia in exchange for some access to rare earth minerals in Ukraine. With the current deal Trump took the second part without offering any guarantee for providing the first.
What the now signed deal really entails is still unknown. The text of the framework agreement was published (in Russian) by the Ukrainian government. There are however two additional agreements which define the all important details.
The Ukrainian government claims that only the first part has been signed. The other two will follow only after the Ukrainian parliament, the Rada, has ratified the main one. Several 'western' media have contradicted that claim. All three parts of the agreement were signed. But the Ukrainian government is keeping the details of the second and third part secret because the conditions imposed by them are extremely bad for Ukraine.
As Strana has summarized (machine translation):
The document published by the Ukrainian government and signed yesterday does not contain any specifics on the fundamental aspects of the fund's activities.In particular, the details of the fund's management and the decision-making mechanism for disposing of funds received by the fund are not specified.
...
There is only a reference to the fact that the distribution of shares in the fund, its management principles and other specific issues will be regulated by an additional limited partnership agreement, which, according to the Ukrainian authorities, has yet to be signed (recall, the American media write that it has already been approved).
...
In the published text of the agreement, the goal of the fund (Partnership) is extremely vague: "to become a flagship mechanism for encouraging transparent, accountable and future-oriented investments in critical sectors of the Ukrainian economy in support of the country's recovery strategy."At the same time, the text of the agreement contains clear commitments on contributions to the fund from Ukraine (50% of the cost of new mineral development licenses), but does not contain specific commitments on contributions from the United States. There is also no commitment from Washington to continue military assistance. It is only written that if there are still arms deliveries, they will be counted as an American contribution to the fund.
The agreement will without doubt be used by the U.S. to rob Ukraine of whatever valuables it has left.
At the same time it does not commit the U.S. to do anything.
With this capitulation Zelenski has fulfilled everything the Trump administration had demanded from him for a ceasefire. The U.S. has, however, no means to press Russia into a ceasefire. President Putin and other Russian officials have made it clear that they have no interest in just stopping the fighting but want a long lasting peace agreement.
The Trump administration has neither the will nor the capabilities to negotiate and enter into long term peace agreement with Russia.
That is why it is now, on one side, washing its hands over the whole issue:
Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated Thursday that a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine is still on the horizon but noted the eastern European nations are still very much at odds with “no military solution.”“I think we know where Ukraine is, and we know where Russia is right now and where [Russian President Vladimir] Putin is. They’re still far apart,” he told Fox News’s Sean Hannity. “They’re closer, but they’re still far apart.”
Rubio essentially says: 'We got what we wanted. Now lets get out of here':
“There does come a point where the president has to decide how much more time at the highest levels of our government do you dedicate it, when maybe one of the two sides or both aren’t really close enough, when we have got so many, I would argue, even more important issues going on around the world, not that a war in Ukraine is not important,” the secretary of State said Thursday.
Vice President Vance confirmed that take:
U.S. Vice President JD Vance said Thursday evening that the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine is far from over and that it’s now up to Russia and Ukraine to end the fighting with Washington mulling a step back from peace talks.“It’s going to be up to them [Russia and Ukraine] to come to an agreement and stop this brutal, brutal conflict,” Vance said during an interview with Fox News’ Bret Baier.
“It’s not going anywhere, Bret. It’s not going to end anytime soon,” he added.
Now, as the mineral deal is signed, the U.S. says it has no more responsibility for what happens in Ukraine.
But the mineral deal is also, on the other side, a trap to keep the U.S. committed to the war. As Yves Smith explains:
[O]ur prediction that this deal would be a spoiler as far as normalization of US-Russia relations look every bit as operative as we predicted from the get-go.We had warned from the outset that the so-called Ukraine “raw earths” deal conflicted with the US agreeing to a settlement of the Ukraine conflict by creating an economic incentive for the US to support Ukraine in retaining as much territory as possible.
... To put it another way, the minerals pact was certain to be a source of conflict with Russia were it ever to get done. The fact that the Administration pursued the deal so aggressively said it valued a splashy but low to no value win over normalizing relations with Russia.
The U.S. may already be back to be fully committed to the war. As soon as the mineral deal was signed the State Department gave notice to Congress about a $50+ million weapon sale to Ukraine.
During the night from Thursday to Friday a large scale drone attack from Ukraine took place in Crimea. Last night another, ever larger attack took place. During the attack Ukraine used Storm Shadow cruise missiles which need U.S. intelligence based coordinates to reach their targets (machine translation):
For the first time since January, Russia announced a strike by British Storm Shadow missiles.This is reported by the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation.
The ministry announced the downing of eight such missiles over the Black Sea.
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The last time the Russian Federation officially reported on the Storm Shadow strike was almost three months ago-on January 15.Also in Russia, a mass drone raid was reported on the Crimea (96 were shot down) and the Krasnodar Territory (47 UAVs were shot down). In addition, it is stated that 14 Ukrainian unmanned boats were destroyed in the Black Sea.
Recall that on the night of May 2 , the Crimea was also under a massive drone attack . Explosions were, in particular, in the areas of military airfields.
Without U.S. (and British) intelligence support the recent attacks by Ukraine would not have been possible.
This points to not yet public Trump decision to continue the war even though the U.S. has no chance to win.
Michael Brenner explains how Trump's 'malignant narcissism' has led to this outcome.
When Russia will launch its big Summer offensive after Victory Day on May 9, it will become very obvious that making peace with Russia would have been the more difficult but also more promising way to proceed.
Posted by b on May 3, 2025 at 13:01 UTC | Permalink
next page »This morning's chat with theduran's Alexander Mercouris, Glenn Diesen and John Meirsheimer came to much the same conclusions.
Interestingly, US Rep Marjorie Taylor Green (I saw it on Telegram, likely posted to twitter/X as well) spoke out saying this is not what she campaigned for:
keeping Ukraine going, bombing Alsar Allah (I think she used Houthis) potentially war with Iran. Said why is mRNA still on the vaccine schedule?
I don't know if the Trump Administration is paying enough attention but the cost in political capital of these foreign policy misadventures is beginning to pile up. If Trump doesn't want midterms to stop any chance to move his agenda forward, he needs a course correction. (this is said from a functional political perspective not as an endorsement). I've suspected that Trump plans to put on a show with prosecutions of corruption running up to the elections next year, but as any good US political observer knows: Americans vote with their pocketbook.
I hope this finds you well
Posted by: ockham | May 3 2025 13:21 utc | 2
The 'mineral deal is just that a deal but a pretext and back door to build a multi-trillion toxic $ NAFO in Ukraine.
DJT loves wars and money.
DJT does not want peace. He's lying through his teeth on a daily basis.
The RUF shall continue with the SMO until the very end until all conditions are met.
The Outlaw US of A could never be trusted.
Posted by: pepe | May 3 2025 13:27 utc | 4
Daily DS map update: https://deepstatemap.live/en#6/49.4383200/32.0526800
Overall: A better (than recently) day at 11.1 kmsq. Just barely out of the single digit midget world, but still. Note that this pace is still half of NOV2024 pace and less than most months in 2H2024. Also, it would take ~8 years, at this pace, to realize Putin's stated war objectives. (The 4 oblasts, plus Crimea, already held. But NOT Odessa.)
Generalizing, from below, the advances are all in Donetsk oblast. And all in the (broadly speaking) Pokrovsk vicinity.
Specific changes, S to N:
1. Fields W of Petropavlivka. (DP front.)
2. Fields W of Zhaporzhia (not the one you are thinking of, a random other hamlet with same name). (DP front.)
3. Fields NW of Nadezhdynka. (DP front.)
4. The NE part of Shevchenko (recapturing the town). (Directly S of Pokrovsk.) Note that this area was held for a while, by RFA, then lost for a while. Now recaptured. This is some of what Skruffy is talking about with the "RFA regaining the initiative in Pokrovsk" remarks. There was also, the DRG getting killed in S Pokrovsk itself. Note that DS does not show even a gray zone for this momentary probing raid. But it is interesting, that it probably originated from Shevchenko (nearest place the the S part of Pokrovsk).
5. Two separate, but very close, polygons of fields near Tarasivka. (Far E flank of Pokrovsk.) Note that DS also shows a new gray zone approaching the small settlement of Oleksandropil. The gray zones crossing the main road, ultimate objective have not changed yet. Skruffy has an excellent discussion of this whole area, but basically the takeaway is that RFA efforts to flank Pokrovsk and cut the road were repulsed for months by too-strong UFA defense, so RFA is basically "going even wider" in terms of flanking the E side of the city.
Posted by: Anonymous | May 3 2025 13:35 utc | 5
Posted by: ockham | May 3 2025 13:21 utc | 2
RE: this is not what MTG expected from DJT: arming Ukraine/bombing Ansar Allah
<<
Gotta check the Laura Loomer over/under
Would be helpful to have a FlightTracker on LL's moves. Is she in a holding pattern now over the White House-? Perhaps Bedminster-?
Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 3 2025 13:35 utc | 6
Posted by: Anonymous | May 3 2025 13:35 utc | 5
Told you DS is quite late or incomplete
Most of what I said to you yesterday confirmed by S’s new post (check it out)
Posted by: Newbie | May 3 2025 13:37 utc | 7
This is extremely silly. Ukraine is a money pit, not a source of valuables. This deal is an excuse to pour more money (and arms and intelligence) into Ukraine. It will never realize $$ for the USA.
In addition, it draws Trump further into the war, rather than distancing himself from it. It's pulling defeat out of the jaws of victory (in terms of the efforts to destabilize Zelensky and distance the USA from the war.)
But Orange Man is a moron. All he cares about is some time on Fox News with radio host Sean Hannity. A lazy image uber substance fluffhead like his Attorney General blond bimbo.
Posted by: Anonymous | May 3 2025 13:42 utc | 8
The Big Beautiful Minerals Deal is actually a trust fund, which is not surprising since
A) the U.S. needed a way to keep the grift flowing through a money laundering project
and
B) Sec Bessent's relevant expertise involves inventory assets, ensuring appropriate investments, managing fiduciary commitments & safeguarding investments.
Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 3 2025 13:42 utc | 9
7 Newb: Yeah, he can be 12-24 hours late with stuff that the "first, first" brigade comes up with. I actually scan them just for that reason. (Because despite them milking for clicks, I am interested in news.)
I do like to wait for DS though. S has had to periodically walk things back. DPA (Wyatt) tried using him as a source and noted a pattern. This happens with the first, first crowd, because they always run with the first/biggest reports from Telegram. But some of them are bogus (e.g. a thunder run that got killed, interpreted as control. Or disputed territory claimed as control.)
If it's legit AND RFA continue to advance, then there's no choice but for DS to show it eventually. And for a monthly review, it is sort of irrelevant if it is listed as 02MAY or 03MAY. (FWIW, the most recent DS report was late 02MAY, so it's actually even the same day as your report, just later in the PM.)
Posted by: Anonymous | May 3 2025 13:47 utc | 10
Posted by: William | May 3 2025 13:39 utc | 8
RE: the clarification of Tammy Bruce
<<
Those who support Russia's aims in the SMO probably shuddered just a little when State backtracked on its earlier assertion---we will no longer mediate---and then hustled right back to *reassure* everybody that "Erm, we're not leaving."
Maybe Gen Kellogg is sniffing about for a few more minerals-?
Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 3 2025 13:50 utc | 11
TOTAL BS, THERE IS NO RARE MINERALS IN UKRAINE. An excuse to keep the war going. TRUMP IS BREAKING HIS PROMISE TO END THE WAR. I am still grateful he won over Kamala who would have been worse but come on WHAT HAPPENED TO AMERICA FIRST?
Posted by: Fortuna | May 3 2025 13:51 utc | 12
The main practical consequence of this so-called deal and its parts are:
-Ukraine give future mining rights, at least 50% proceeds from mineral sales and preferential mining/investment rights to US companies
-No obligations to the US, beyond whatever incentive they have to 'protect' its newly found rights to Ukrainian minerals
-Instead of Kiev receiving free stuff from Nato (of which 90% consists of US stuff), it will have to pay for the stuff (most likely EU/UK funds will guarantee all Ukrainian purchases from Nato a.k.a. Nato)
The 'deal' has been hailed as 'brilliant' by EU media. Apparently due to their thinking it ties US back to the war. But US may find out the cost of attempting to secure whatever easily extractable minerals will far exceed potential future benefits, and opt to source these minerals from alternative sources, like Canada or Greenland, or potentially resuming Chinese or Russian trade.
The main rationale for signing the deal is to secure the loot of Zelensky and his associates. Like his recent visit to South Africa despite it accounting for 0.01-0.05 % of all Ukrainian imports/exports, demonstrated Zelensky's personal interests and gains in a local platinum mining company and securing personal interests and gains in the post-Ukraine era.
Posted by: unimperator | May 3 2025 13:52 utc | 13
Putin has been preparing the Russian population and the entire country for a long period of hostilities. In which motivation, Industry and Patriotism play a large part. He, at least, has been thinking ahead to decide what would be best for Russia and Russians in the future. What is necessary to counter an existential threat that may not have a clear "ending", except by the complete exhaustion of the foreign forces aligned against it. (USUKEU, Mammon and fiends, etc)
****
I have been thinking about why the SMO is slow. Not only for attrition of the enemy, but I have come to the conclusion that there must be other reason or reasons.
**
I imagine that Putin had to rethink his strategy after the first moments of the SMO, and as it became clear that the Ukrainians (Russian speaking) would not or could not join Russia, and that NATO-US expansion, among others, would have to be countered. The subsequent build-up of an industrial base for arms production, and the expansion of troop numbers followed. However, this was not all. Over the last 100 years of history, Russia has lost millions of citizens, to war, politics and other aggressions. So how to counter a new aggression designed to "bleed" the population of Russia yet again?
This may have become clarified by the news that Russia is creating another army on its' western "front" (A cool million?). An army made up of experienced troops, perhaps withdrawn from elsewhere to form reserves with experienced officers etc. However, I do not think that the purpose of this army is some "invasion" or massive attack. Rather it is designed to be unattackable or too hard to attack easily. (NATO don't bother, as you would lose).
****
Note that Putin believes in peace, but what sort of peace?
The nearest equivalent is the Swiss system of armed defense. (Up until recently) Where everyone did their stint and were individually armed afterwards (Gun and ten rounds at home). These citizens were "patriotic", independent individuals, even with political units with their own degree of freedom, (Cantons have their own taxes and partially their own financial affairs), multi-lingual, (Fr, Ger, Ital and Romanche). Religious freedom, even if there are other major groups. Referendums, (although this has become rather limited in practice). They have many well defendable positions, Bunkers (including nuclear, and also for the population.), Which are still in use and well looked after. No absolutist central politics. (i.e. the 7 "Sages", one of whom will be elected president for a short while). These factors led to neutrality as a policy and a large amount of financial success and wellbeing.
The similarities with Russia are evident. Multi-lingual, multi-religious (mainly Christian but Muslim and others are accepted), Various Ethnic groups and the equivalent of Cantons (Oblasts, and tribal affiliations and traditions). So the Slow-MO is now also designed to give Russia the time to create a "Swiss style" Union, well-armed and with a fervent Patriotic core spirit. That will allow future generations to profit from an extended period of peace for civic regeneration, and allowing a period where ancient population losses can be rescovered. (it will take one generation!) To refill the country and then morally rearm it.
**
This can also explain why Russia will make pacts with other countries who will defend their own interests (North Korea and possibly Iran), but will not fight other people's wars for them. They would have continued in Syria IF the Syrians themselves had been able to fight the Mossad inspired thugs that have taken over. Bu not alone if the citizens are not on board.
****
Long post, but I was working on it before the new thread started.
DJT is mercurial, peripatetic & sclerotic. He is not a reliable partner. Plus he occasionally cosplays as the Pope. On account of this, Russia has to ensure that they, on the battlefield, protect against the vagaries of DJT.
During the time that Collective Biden was super-sizing Ukraine , the AFU/NATO mercs were consistently & conspicuously losing in Donbas, almost as if they had pledged a commitment to burn up as much MIC armor as possible @ breakneck speed.
So of course DJT is now sending his first disbursement to Ukraine—-a $500 million dollar package—of F-16 support items---after setting up the jointly administered trust fund (lately known as the minerals deal.)
Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 3 2025 13:59 utc | 16
The so-called minerals deal is a joke. Even if Ukr exists to deliver (it won't) without the tech to extract the minerals (which afaik is what 1. makes them rare & 2. we lack) it is nothing but a patch of dirt.
Trump now owns the slavic genocide along with the Palestinian etal genocide.
The good news is the more munitions we waste genociding Slavs, the less available to genocide Palestinians, Syrians, Iraqis, Lebanese, Sudanese & Yemenis on behalf of USrael. (Sorry if I left anyone off the ever-growing list.)
USrael can't become Wasrael fast enough.
Posted by: Mary | May 3 2025 14:04 utc | 17
By the way, Afghanistan also signed a mineral deal with US in mid-2017. How did that end up afterwards?
Posted by: unimperator | May 3 2025 14:10 utc | 18
Posted by: Night Tripper | May 3 2025 5:51 utc | 309 (previous thread)
It's not about encouraging RFA to accept a bad deal, but just to be realistic. At some point, you have to eat your ess sandwich. If Putin wanted different, he should have done a better job with the FEB2022 invasion. He failed to take Kiev or Kharkov and got his ass kicked out of Kherson as well (sorry Odessa dreamers!)
I mean...I didn't want the Taliban to take over Afghanistan either, but at some point you just fish or cut bait...and the decision is to cut bait.
Posted by: Anonymous | May 3 2025 14:14 utc | 19
After taking office, DJT had three options
1) get a deal to conclude hostilities
2) hand Ukraine off to the Europeans (i.e., to walk away)
3) become Joe 2.0
During his confab w/ Diesen and Mercouris this morning, the *stuff* was so tight that Professor Mearsheimer committed a Freudian Slip, saying, "Biden is going to have to make a decision whether we step in, meaning the Americans, to stem the tide..." It's @ The Duran post, 24:49
No shine off Professor Mearsheimer, of course, because the mix-up between DJT and Joe is inescapable now.
Maybe instead of posting memes of himself cosplaying the Pope, DJT should now post memes of himself tearing into bigly ice cream cones, mouth wide open-?
Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 3 2025 14:17 utc | 20
I've suspected that Trump plans to put on a show with prosecutions of corruption running up to the elections next year
Posted by: ockham | May 3 2025 13:21 utc | 2
What tipped you off? The mass firings of commissars, the cuts to CIA cutouts like USAID, or President Trump bringing in his own lawyers to get things done?
The layoffs in oligarch media and contining collapse of the Democrats are all tied together. Every attack on the machine makes it that much less likely that the Democrats will even make the midterms. The perils of being a massively corrupt party.
Posted by: They Call Me Mister | May 3 2025 14:20 utc | 21
Ukie claiming today that a sea drone launched the missile that downed the Russian SU. If true, of course it's not true, right guys? If not true the mere mention of such will have the engineers busy all day and night.
Russians complaining they still have no answer for surface sea drone swarms....
Cheers M
.... predictions, love em or hate em, late night Ouija session in Whitehall: drone swarms coming to a Sea of Azov near you, may see some drone mating pods blocking the Russian Right of Navigation exercises taking place in the Baltic Sea....must consult the I Ching.
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | May 3 2025 14:33 utc | 22
When Russia will launch its big Summer offensive after Victory Day on May 9, it will become very obvious that making peace with Russia would have been the more difficult but also more promising way to proceed.
Posted by b on May 3, 2025 at 13:01 UTC | Permalink
Also expected things to stay on slow burner until then, but yesterday there were some interesting developments.
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7 Newb: Yeah, he can be 12-24 hours late with stuff that the "first, first" brigade comes up with. I actually scan them just for that reason. (Because despite them milking for clicks, I am interested in news.)
I do like to wait for DS though. S has had to periodically walk things back. DPA (Wyatt) tried using him as a source and noted a pattern. This happens with the first, first crowd, because they always run with the first/biggest reports from Telegram. But some of them are bogus (e.g. a thunder run that got killed, interpreted as control. Or disputed territory claimed as control.)
If it's legit AND RFA continue to advance, then there's no choice but for DS to show it eventually. And for a monthly review, it is sort of irrelevant if it is listed as 02MAY or 03MAY. (FWIW, the most recent DS report was late 02MAY, so it's actually even the same day as your report, just later in the PM.)
Posted by: Anonymous | May 3 2025 13:47 utc | 13
You have a point, but as we've been discussing for some hours, and S seems to confirm and as I comment to b above, things seem to have changed.
Couple of days ago I mentioned interesting tendrils, still there, but now some serious breakthroughs seem to be happening at the same time.
A last tangential thought. The very slow MO made sense as a way to reach 2 million bayonets by year end. Accelerating now, probably with increased casualties (not ISW casualties but casualties nonetheless) could be a sign of assessed lower risk of a nato play in 2026.
And that could mean that this deal is seen as "2) hand Ukraine off to the Europeans (i.e., to walk away)", no us support if europe decides to party like it's 1939
Posted by: Newbie | May 3 2025 14:34 utc | 23
I'm afraid some are still under the misapprehension that Russia needs a deal. It doesnt. America and it's allies need one. Russia can continue to slow bleed the US and her puppies for a very long time.
As someone said, the Americans do tactics, Russians do strategy. Of course the cocommittant risks of us all dying in a nuclear fireball have gone up exponentially, but why care about such details?
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | May 3 2025 14:34 utc | 24
And like clockwork, the green man is here off shift from MI6 to gloat about the fascists latest outrage. When the shoe is on the other foot, how they'll bleat.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | May 3 2025 14:36 utc | 25
>>The Mineral Deal is nothing. It's a side show...
That largely sums it up.
Posted by: Jmaas | May 3 2025 14:37 utc | 26
Sorry, I just assumed you were glowing about their use of sea drones to launch Fpv drones that, while they didn't hit anything of military significance killed several civilians including children when they hit three separate apartment buildings.
They didn't hit any 'SU', but they did kill kids which I'm sure your British friends are happy about. What goes around comes around.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | May 3 2025 14:40 utc | 27
In this segmnt of Issues of Contemporary Politics with Dr.Brovkin I focus of political consequences of sighning of the Minerals' Deal with the US.
Hailed as a win for the US I here argue is that it is in reality a big defeat for Trump, for his agenda, for his claims of peace-maker and for his overall standing generally.
Dt. Brovkin is an American historian of Russian history and politics, formerly a Professor of Soviet History at Harvard University, the author of seven books on Russian Soviet History and of scores of articles. A consultant, researcher and teacher, his latest book: from Vladimir Lenin to Vladimir Putin: Russia in Search of Its Identity (Routledge, London 2024) is available from Routledge.com, Amazon, and Barnes and Noble.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QQbpHas4DaA
Posted by: unimperator | May 3 2025 14:45 utc | 28
Ukraine can never agree to a peace w/ Russia, because this war has become a nation-building modus vivendi for them, full of ideations of identity-construction, forging who & what it is to be a Ukrainian, chockfull of national alignment.
Losers never forget. Ukraine will lose this war, and they’ll never forget what they lost. If they get a Frozen Conflict, they’ll leap back in @ the first chance, trying to get *their land* back.
The debacle creates a sweepingly toxic political landscape in perpetuity that will keep Europe’s knickers in a Russophobic twist for @ least a generation, but I suspect longer. Consider, for instance, how long the Lost Cause former Confederacy clung-on.
This is especially a catastrophe for Europe. Reports like the one this week in the WSJ about Russia’s military build up near Finland will naturally kick off a competition on Europe’s part to rearm-to-scale, which—lacking the industrial heft—-it never can accomplish.
Russia is raising 30,000 - 40,000 new troops *each* month. Germany’s army, to compare, stands @ under 40,000. Russia is literally raising *a Germany* each month. The dearth of strategic thinking on the part of the Europeans is mind-blowing.
Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 3 2025 14:49 utc | 29
Thanks b. Very good.
1. No normalization of diplomatic relations between the US and Russia.
2. No common ground for talks.
3. The Trump administration is not walking away from the conflict and it follows the same agenda Biden was committed to.
4. Trump's period of grace is over. At this point in the conflict, Russia knows pretty well who her real ennemies are and where to hit if needed.
5. It's quite possible that Russia will start enforcing her red lines and Russia might retaliate against US and UK military assets outside of Ukraine. If the US and the UK can use proxies and deniable means of covert warfare, Russia can do it as well, probably.
Posted by: Richard L | May 3 2025 15:07 utc | 30
"We cheat, we lie, we steal."
As always. Nothing new, nothing changed.
Posted by: Naive | May 3 2025 15:18 utc | 31
Read somewhere that Russia will prepare referenda in new regions of 404.
Posted by: Naive | May 3 2025 15:19 utc | 32
Perhaps our host's usually excellent English failed in the title? There was no pull, it was a push, from Trump ultimately. It's always the fish that bites, never the fisherman, much less the bait. Even forgetting the fact that someday the war on the ground will decide the fate of this so-called recovery fund, what it can mean is entirely unclear. It's possible our host and Yves Smith are correct that the point is to be a piece of paper to wave, like a Chamberlain or McCarthy. But another possibility is that shares in the fund are effectively bought by weapons transfers?
As to the general possibility that the US can walk away, I still do not see how Russia can make deals with Trump on energy, etc. Ukraine is too important I think. Maybe more important, this war is war with Russia. A frozen war or even an indefinitely prolonged slow death of Ukraine hurts Russia, therefore the US wins something in the war on Russia. It's not the whole loaf, sure. But diplomacy is still politics. Politics is the art of compromise, half a loaf.
Posted by: ockham | May 3 2025 13:21 utc | 2
... prosecutions of corruption running up to the elections next year.
Posted by: They Call Me Mister | May 3 2025 14:20 utc | 24
Every attack on the machine makes it that much less likely that the Democrats will even make the midterms.@2 is skeptical that this will work, as pocketbook issues are more important. I would add that Trump has his own corruption issues, except that the oligarch media has for years minimized these. Also, Congress is Republican-controlled. Every poll rating confidence in Congress even lower than confidence in Trump therefore is a sign of possible trouble for Republicans as well. In the states, the local rich (who are minnows compared to leviathans like the Musks) tend to rule rural and suburban districts by the time-honored methods of the legal structure supporting the duopoloy, vote suppressions and gerrymandering. If Trump delivers on his pocketbook promises, no worries for the Trump cult on that score. But at this point they seem to me to be rather like those religious cults that actually predicted a date for the Second Coming. The truly faithful will double down but like the progenitors of the Adventists and Jehovah's Witnesses, the failure of their Christ to actually appear bodes ill for becoming a majority.
@24 so far as I can see implicitly says the Trump plan is to crush the Democrats by legal means (which objective eyes would call the Republican version of lawfare,) but is sure this campaign will render the elections effectively null and void by its success. I'm not sure why the Democrats as a whole (which they aren't, by the way!) are conceived to be committed opponents in the first place. I am sure that counting on Trump's lawyers to be competent is more an act of faith than thinking.
Posted by: steven t johnson | May 3 2025 15:20 utc | 33
"Stalin was right, social democracy is just the moderate wing of fascism."
Posted by: Badjoke | May 2 2025 10:14 utc | 17
(From May 02, 2025 “Trump Tops Tariffs On China With Sanctions”)
Badjoke, when and where did Stalin say that? Or does anybody else know? Thanks!
Posted by: Northern Eve | May 3 2025 15:20 utc | 34
The ppp is threatening the leaders attending the celebration on the 9th of May in Moscow.
Meanwhile ukronazi drones are targeting civilians in Russia.
Day 1167 of the SMO and the head of the snake is still alive.
Posted by: Naive | May 3 2025 15:22 utc | 35
Russia peace plans, cease fires, (call it presmoke in mirrors) were all planned to keep the 'snake' trapped, occupied. They can also play the game of deception. The snake is unable to maneuver out of this debacle, keep them in the deep pit as long as it takes, piercing into its fake powers.
I realize now, The ceasefires by Russians, served multiple purposes and was never intended for pleasing the US or Ukraine.
Pivot to Asia will never happen.
Posted by: TheTurk | May 3 2025 15:23 utc | 36
Let me make a historical analogy - When Julius Caesar was pursuing Pompey to Egypt, he found out that Pompey had been killed by Egyptians trying to curry favor with Caesar. Caesar pretended that he was really upset, but thinking about things more closely it served his interests, because now he didn't have to worry about Pompey any more. Moving to Ukraine - Russia launches its 2025 offensive, takes everything up to the Dneiper River. Trump will pretend he is upset, but he really doesn't care because now he doesn't have to worry about Ukraine any more.
Posted by: gepalmer | May 3 2025 15:24 utc | 37
Posted by: Naive | May 3 2025 15:19 utc | 35
#####
I think it was Martyanov who said that Russia knows the outcomes on the ground before holding referenda.
Makes sense. It would be a huge blunder to hold and lose a referendum.
So, if they can do it, and do not, that means conditions aren't ready (yet).
Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 3 2025 15:25 utc | 38
Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 3 2025 14:49 utc | 32
Consider, for instance, how long the Lost Cause former Confederacy clung-on.
----
Clung on? The South took 150 years, but they WON the Civil War. Their toxic, macho, lowbrow, philistine culture is now the culture of the US. Trump, although from NYC, is definitely of Southern culture. What are WWF and "The Apprentice" but macho chest-thumping?
Then there is Lady Lindsay, the ineradicable senator from the firebrand state of South Carolina. A militarist from the get-go. Texas and Florida are full of people who have self-segrated into regulation-challenged regions that want no taxes but expect to be saved when a hurricane hits.
I could go on, but you get the point.
It must be admitted that the Confederates got a lot of help from the limp-wristed caricature of progressivism that the fake-left Dems have been touting for at least a decade.
Posted by: john brewster | May 3 2025 15:28 utc | 39
"When Russia will launch its big Summer offensive after Victory Day on May 9, it will become very obvious that making peace with Russia would have been the more difficult but also more promising way to proceed.
Posted by b on May 3, 2025 at 13:01 UTC | Permalink"
This smells like wish fulfillment contaminated analysis. If anything, the indications are that Sumy/Kursk will remain a fringe theater, with the RFA at most trying for a Vovchansk style border region and a distraction for the UFA. (And not even clear if it is the UFA distracting RFA or the converse.)
Pokrovsk is the real objective. And indications that I, Newbie, Skruffy and several others are noticing is that RFA is starting "to tendril" (gain the initiative) in this area. It just makes huge sense for Pokrovsk to be this summer's Avdiivka/Bakhmut.
Yes, a "big arrow" move on Sumy would be noteworthy. But zero evidence that RFA could pull it off (on the modern battlefield, with huge advantages to the defense). Or even that this is the style of war they are best at (big arrow versus grind).
Heck, as long as you are dreaming of a surprise big arrow against Sumy, why not dream of Kharkov?! Or, heck, Kiev!
But, really "big arrows" is dreaming. Could it happen? Sure. Anything "might" happen. But should you bet on it? No. Try to look at evidence and trends. And not let what you want to happen affect your guesses on what is likely to happen.
At the end of the day, Pokrovsk tendrils are more ominous than out of the big arrow dreams. Than the "turn it up to 11" fantasies.
Posted by: Anonymous | May 3 2025 15:29 utc | 40
The "deals" (Ukraine, tariffs, etc) are all Kabuki for 2 week approval poll bumps.
The pages could be blank, it doesn't matter what it "says".
What matters is that for another 10 days or so, Trump can dodge questions about the stock market, Yemen, Iran, illegal immigration, etc.
Campaigning in America is easy. Just use big data to ascertain the key talking points, then make grandiose promises about the utopia you claim will be created.
The hard part is actually following through.
In Trump's first term, Steve Bannon kept a huge whiteboard of promises that had been made. That's where, "Promises made, promises kept" came from as they completed one. Clever marketing to build credibility.
Not only is Bannon gone but the idea of measuring accountability is as well.
Trump has one priority now. ZOG.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 3 2025 15:34 utc | 41
MoA's cloudflare service is absolutely a DOG the past few days. Takes several seconds to even load the "verification" check box and then another 7-8 seconds to load the page. What gives?
Anyway, to those (including me) who said that the Obama-Biden camp were corrupt to the hilt with Ukraine - and to the Trumper MAGA morons who seemed to think that it would be rectified with the new US regime - whatcha got to say now?
ALL of the future corruption flowing into and out of Ukraine and into and out of NYC and DC are Trump's to own. Like a mafioso gangster, he strode into office and extracted protection-but-non-protection money out of the illegitimate leaders of a nation whose male and female population btwn the ages of 20-40 is decimated, and all for a completely sold out future.
Yeah, Trump. The "anti-war" President who will also likely lead us into a war with Iran by year's end. Fuckin sick joke. But... TDS right?! Does Cullen Baker have any input?
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 3 2025 15:34 utc | 42
Doctor [email protected], nothing to do with Ukie Russia just the introduction of, or even the premise of their existence....sea drones capable of firing on jets, I doubt they'd use a sea launched air drone to attack a jet, more like a modified SAM sea launch platform....knowing Whitehall and their nefarious actions I'd lay money they exist already.
I read recently of a mother sea drone, that carries multiple smaller armed drones.....it is the future of sea warfare.... outside Hazelnut export season.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | May 3 2025 15:36 utc | 43
Does Cullen Baker have any input?
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 3 2025 15:34 utc | 45
######
I expect Mr. Baker's frequency of appearances will be influenced by how Trump is really doing.
The MAGAs are getting smart that most of the announcements and declarations are empty calories.
We don't hear about TSMC, or the 51st state anymore.
We don't even hear about new factories or DOGE.
100 days of "meh" can really tax the enthusiasm of fanatics.
And just like that. MAGA dies.
Like the pro-war energy for Vietnam and Iraq 10 years after the bulk of the troops left. Most sane people become embarrassed to acknowledge their previous full-throated support.
Empires thrive on domestic supporters having the attention spans and memories of goldfish. Useful idiots come in handy since they often know nothing and will believe anything, programmable NPCs in red caps.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 3 2025 15:50 utc | 44
@b who wrote
"
Without U.S. (and British) intelligence support the recent attacks by Ukraine would not have been possible.
This points to not yet public Trump decision to continue the war even though the U.S. has no chance to win.
"
I think that the decision to continue the war is public and agree that the US has no chance to win but more military equipment needs to be destroyed yet.....demilitarization of NATO
I expect the coming 80th anniversary celebrations in Russia to be attacked by the US/UK/proxy poodles. It is what small minded people do.
I stand in awe of Russia/Iran/China keeping their powder dry.........let the bully fall on its sword.
Posted by: psychohistorian | May 3 2025 15:51 utc | 45
The aim of the deal was:
[1] To press Z's attempt to rope the US, to test his bluff, hoping he would back away, giving Trump cover for backing away
[2] To present some kind of a Win to the American public
Now that it is signed, it is harder for the US to back away, but this is no more than wish and feint.
The US will simply not give up on this proxy war, cutting of all ISR, command & control, and aid.
It is Trump's war as much as Biden's, and he has just owned it all over again.
Posted by: Webej | May 3 2025 15:52 utc | 46
Ukraine and World Affairs: Weekly Update, 2nd May 2025: May be useful to some: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-and-world-affairs-weekly-f3b
Posted by: The Busker | May 3 2025 15:54 utc | 47
Posted by: Stonebird | May 3 2025 13:52 utc | 17
The nearest equivalent is the Swiss system of armed defense.
No way.
These citizens were "patriotic", independent individuals,
"were" is correct.
even with political units with their own degree of freedom, (Cantons have their own taxes and partially their own financial affairs),
It is called subsidiarity.
Referendums, (although this has become rather limited in practice).
To launch an initiative or a referendum, you need money. The accepted initiative on immigrants was never applied, violating thus the constitution.
They have many well defendable positions, Bunkers (including nuclear, and also for the population.), Which are still in use and well looked after.
No. Some are even used to shelter illegal immigrants.
No absolutist central politics. (i.e. the 7 "Sages", one of whom will be elected president for a short while).
Complete central politics for everything within the federal jurisdiction.
These factors led to neutrality as a policy
led: past tense. Now Switzerland is a dictatorship since the federal government decided not to respect the neutrality imbedded in the constitution.
The power is economic and financial and there is no economic and financial democracy.
and a large amount of financial success and wellbeing.
Only due to the banking secrecy.
The similarities with Russia are evident.
No. The different sizes make everything different.
multi-religious (mainly Christian but Muslim and others are accepted),
No. There is at least one law against the muslims. Quite a few cantons are secular.
Various Ethnic groups
Only by immigration.
and the equivalent of Cantons (Oblasts,
No. Donetsk territory represents 0.64% of the territory of Switzerland.
and tribal affiliations and traditions).
Tribal? LOL!
So the Slow-MO is now also designed to give Russia the time to create a "Swiss style" Union, well-armed and with a fervent Patriotic core spirit.
You are very gullible if you think that the Swiss have currently a "fervent Patriotic spirit" or you are very ill informed.
To refill the country and then morally rearm it.
If Russia would need that, it would mean very bad news.
Posted by: Naive | May 3 2025 16:00 utc | 48
Posted by: Webej | May 3 2025 15:52 utc | 49
US Could theoretically walk away because the only thing that's holding it is the nominal promise of extracting some mineral which may be 5 years away to get set up and build infrastructure even after war ends.
I think the neocons dominate Trump and that is the real reason they won't back away. With the last 60 body exchanges being on average over 10:1 in favor of RUAF, this will go on to the end until sub-18 and over 60 year olds are killed or captured as EU/US have no more weapons to arm Ukraine, leaving them to literally fight with shovels as MSM said a few years ago.
Posted by: unimperator | May 3 2025 16:01 utc | 49
...when and where did Stalin say that? Or does anybody else know? Thanks!
Posted by: Northern Eve | May 3 2025 15:20 utc | 37
Stalin wrote this in his article "On the international movement" published in the magazine Bolshevik #11 1924.
Article in Russian
Posted by: Rutte | May 3 2025 16:06 utc | 50
I think the neocons dominate Trump
Posted by: unimperator | May 3 2025 16:01 utc | 52
######
The bulk of the NATO training in Ukraine pre-SMO happened under Trump.
Remember, Obama only sent blankets. Trump sent offensive weapons.
Trump is the latest in a long line of US Presidents that campaigned on peace and then pursued the opposite when in office. Zelensky did the same thing in Ukraine.
Neocons, like the Deep State, are convenient villains that "corrupt" Presidents.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 3 2025 16:23 utc | 51
I think the neocons dominate Trump
Posted by: unimperator | May 3 2025 16:01 utc | 52
######
The bulk of the NATO training in Ukraine pre-SMO happened under Trump.
Remember, Obama only sent blankets. Trump sent offensive weapons.
Trump is the latest in a long line of US Presidents that campaigned on peace and then pursued the opposite when in office. Zelensky did the same thing in Ukraine.
Neocons, like the Deep State, are convenient villains that "corrupt" Presidents.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 3 2025 16:23 utc | 52
As far as Ukraine is concerned Trump has as much to say as Zelenski, they are both actors (look at the photos from the meeting in the Vatican if you have any doubts). It are the military who are in charge in this case. As the temporary cease fire failed expect all kinds of new NATO projects in Ukraine to roll out again. Russia is in no hurry, as long as the war continues in Ukraine, the confrontation with NATO will be on territory that is favourable to Russia. Russia takes its time to further prepare. NATO started the proxy war because of the growing power of Russia, militarily. In the mean time they have become much powerful.
Posted by: hubert | May 3 2025 16:26 utc | 53
What the "blue-no-matter-who" crowd like Yves doesn't want to acknowledge is that the war has been lost for quite some time but, the knowledge of that loss and consequently the blame has yet to be place.
Anybody with an once of honesty knows that blame belongs to the 3LA's Hillary/Cheney/Obama/Team-Biden crowd, aka, the never Trump crowd but, that's not how political games are played in the anglo-sphere. The never Trump crowd above did all they could to forestall ex-ukainia from collapsing in their time, sending over huge amounts of cash, weapons and sanctioning the Galician SS's slaughter of hundreds of thousands ethnically/culturally-Russian/Slovaks/Hungarians who had the misfortune to be inside the borders of the artifice that is post-Soviet-ex-ukrainia.
The never-Trump-crowd knew that the newly elected President would have a very hard time facing his electorate with the biggest loss of the the post WWII era hanging around his neck. To the never-Trump-crowd the loss of so many men, so material, so much national treasure meant nothing compared to their goal of defeating Trump, who is an impediment to their long term goal, the imposition of a police state.
So, Trump & his team, came up with a piece of artifice all their own to snatch a superficial veneer of "victory" the jaws of defeat, the blame of which belongs squarely on the shoulders of the 3LA's and their political hacks, the Hillary/Cheney/Obama/Team-Biden crowd, aka, the never Trump crowd.
That being the case the line below should read:
"The agreement will without doubt be used by the U.S. to rob Ukraine of whatever valuables it has left provide a political fig leaf to cover for the biggest loss in the post WWII era"
Blame that would otherwise be unfairly placed around Trump's neck. Meanwhile the scoundrels that caused this horrendous tragedy are left free, surely scheming to create another such tragedy. God help us all.
Posted by: S Brennan | May 3 2025 16:31 utc | 54
Stripping Ukraine of its black earth requires no processing and not much machinery.
It is my understanding that that process is already under way.
How does the deal Ukraine signed fit in with this, and what does what is left of Ukraine’s population think of the theft of a major asset in order to line politician’s pockets?
Posted by: CitizenSmith | May 3 2025 16:34 utc | 55
Signing over Ukrainian mineral rights to the US does not provide the EU much incentive to continue arming Ukraine. US imperialists now have a reason to continue arming Ukraine. Russia will have to smash the remaining Ukrainian fighters off the battlefield to end the war.
Posted by: Keme | May 3 2025 16:41 utc | 57
The black soil is literally Ukraine’s rare earth, and `Trump wants to steal it.
And Ukraine’s politicians will steal it from their own citizens.
Posted by: CitizenSmith | May 3 2025 16:42 utc | 58
53 - I think he had a point, looking at the pro-war energy of such as Blair and Starmer.
Posted by: Waldorf | May 3 2025 16:44 utc | 59
Posted by: CitizenSmith | May 3 2025 16:42 utc | 61
The EU/UK and their investment fund organizations and gene manipulative agriculture companies have been transferring the black soil in Ukraine for a long time before the US mineral deal.
Posted by: unimperator | May 3 2025 16:51 utc | 60
America's Five-Front Trap
With Ukraine peace efforts dead, the U.S. now confronts five active fronts—against Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, and Yemen—with allies hesitant to share the burden.
Posted by: Anonymous | May 3 2025 15:29 utc | 43
> At the end of the day, Pokrovsk tendrils are more ominous than out of the big arrow dreams.
You mean more promising. Right?
Posted by: hopehely | May 3 2025 16:53 utc | 62
Posted by: S Brennan | May 3 2025 16:31 utc | 57
######
The scoundrels are MAGA who love to front run tariffs like they are bombing campaigns on poor brown people.
MAGAs don't get to walk away from ZOG now.
If Trump had militarily defeated Russia, Yemen, and Iran, and if the tariffs had crippled China, you would be dancing in the street like it was 9/11.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 3 2025 16:53 utc | 63
Trump might be sitting on a golf cart waiting to see if the smoke rising from the Vatican is orange in colour.
Why all the silly talk about itbeing Biden's war and now Trump owns it ?
It's a partisan/ uniparty effort, Project Ukraine, continuity of the agenda.
Posted by: ScreamingMonk | May 3 2025 16:59 utc | 64
Naive | May 3 2025 16:00 utc | 51
Sure, the Swiss are not what they used to be, but that was not my point (the Swiss were only the closest example I could think of). Just what I think may be Putins thinking about a long term battle for the minds of those under him, and how he can apply some "ideals" needed to guarantee a national cohesion, in spite of a diversity of ethnies and "tribes" (The tribes I referred to were not the Swiss!)
You have simply chosen to criticise the Swiss at length, without thinking how an "idealised example" can be used by Putin to create something that corresponds to all the civilians of his vast territory, in Russia.
Think about how he has emphasised, child -bearing, Patriotism, the armed forces, industry, education, as a way to improve the life of the majority. (ie The soviets had a big army, but one important part was that it taught masses of peasants to drive and look after lorries!). Think how the citizens can ask and he will reply in person. (ie direct contact as a democratic concept)
If you look at original Russian sites, you should be struck with the amount of emphasis on giving voice to Ethnic groups from "the far reaches" of Russia. China does the same with its own minorities. The EU and US are the opposite, they try to limit minorities to just obedient fodder. (Look at the EU)
Russia needs "refilling" with a population. It is an enormous country and there are vast spaces to be filled. All of those spaces need to be encouraged and to supporting the center, but not to become filled with overly ambitious pre-thugs or proto-oligachs.
***
Maybe I was not clear enough, but I do not see an "End" to the war in Ukraine, as the US, NATO, EU and the others will continue to try to break up Russia, for the forseeable future. So Russia under Putin has to make itself the "poison pill" that if attacked or threatened, is likely to cause more damage to the attacker.
Perhaps Trump should channel his inner Nixon and show up in Moscow May 9th.
Posted by: morongobill | May 3 2025 17:06 utc | 66
"When Russia will launch its big Summer offensive after Victory Day on May 9"
So, this right here is the big question, and something everyone has been wrong about so far. We've been hearing for 3 plus years now "wait till after X, then you'll see!"
Wait till after general winter visits! Hint- general winter doesn't really visit anymore, not like people think. More just makes a brief appearance for the ground to harden enough for a bit more mobility for Armored units and reduction of foliage cover in some forests. But all of the stuff about various rivers freezing over for crossings or severe hypothermia= temps and duration don't even come near the ballpark for that.
Wait till after holy event X (new year, victory parade, declaration of new pope, some nato or peace summit blah blah blah)
Wait till after the AFU exhaust themselves in offensive Y - to be fair, there is absolute truth in this but it has always been localized tactical pushes on targets of opportunity vs a "big arrow" reply.
Wait till after current weapon aid package runs out! Hint. There's always another one in the pipe.
Wait till after "x" crosses red line "y", then the RF will really stop holding back!
Anyway, not to be disparaging but everyone playing the "wait till" game has, so far, been wrong. That begs the question, WILL there be such a moment or will the RF just gradually chip away until there's a localized breakthrough that then leads to a healthy chunk being taken. Example Ugledar, the flowering expansion after avdeevka that allowed them to take selidovo fairly quickly, etc. May be another one happening right now around Toretsk, we'll see.
But so far, on big arrow moves it's been Waiting for Godot. And that isn't a complaint or criticism, just a fact!
Posted by: Clown Shoes | May 3 2025 17:12 utc | 67
Trump's pantomime has run its course, and his never fulfillable campaign promise to be a peace president is now cashiered along with MAGA, and his base nationally has noticed as reflected in polling. Then there's the spin that Waltz was "promoted" by being fired as NSA Director and nominated as UN Rep. As I noted in previous commentary, the "deal" contains a neat little loophole for the continued provisioning of the Nazis by Team Trump. All of Trump's bluster and bullying failed to have any effect on Zelensky or his Nazis, and pulling the intel and supply plugs clearly weren't in the cards for Trump due to domestic pressures, so we're back with essentially the same situation that existed in mid-February--the two sides are talking but that's the extent of the progress. The War Pigs Trump's fronting will not accept defeat by Russia despite their inability to alter that fact; so, as with Vietnam, they'll make Russia completely earn its SMO victory since that's the only way Russia can be harmed.
On the battlefield, I've noted sharp, "small arrow" advances resulting from exploiting weak points in the LOC that exist because the Ukies lack ground forces to attack the flanks of those advances--drones can't hold ground, although they can contest advances. However, it appears that Russia has developed tactics enabling them to attack drone pilot bases. Add Russia's increased effectiveness in attacking rear assembly and logistics areas, and Ukraine's ability to resist is being further degraded.
Posted by: Northern Eve | May 3 2025 15:20 utc | 37
Collected works of I. V. Stalin | Volume 6
Социал-демократия есть объективно умеренное крыло фашизма.
Social democracy is an objectively moderate wing of fascism.
https://marxism.online/stalin/ivs-vol-6/282/
Posted by: Paco | May 3 2025 17:17 utc | 69
Trump's partners in the mineral 'deal' are on a roll according to the armchair warpigs at Politico who are positively drooling over the latest military initiative from Kiev:
Points for kills: How Ukraine is using video game incentives to slay more RussiansUkraine has created a macabre points scheme based on video games to boost the effectiveness of its soldiers.
https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraines-army-have-video-game-like-digital-weapons-store-deadly-realistic/
The programme "Army of Drones bonus" (worthy of a page in a Philip K. Dick story): "...assigns points for each type of kill: 20 points for damaging and 40 for destroying a tank; up to 50 points for destroying a mobile rocket system, depending on the caliber; and six points for killing an enemy soldier."
Proof comes in the form of uploaded drone footage & according to Politico, the points earned will soon allow individual military units and brigades to "buy' equipment on an Amazon style military website.
The surprise is that they haven't grafted an online gambling component to the 'game' given its popularity with the forcible conscripts at the front. This 'initiative' feels like it comes from the same NATO mind that thought bribing 18-24 year olds into signing military contracts based on the annual number of burgers you could consume would be a roaring success.
Likewise, three years into the conflict & this is how the NATO psyop department believes you motivate a conscripted army suggests they are grasping at straws. This is despite the latest Western talking point of the conflict lasting 'centuries' predicated upon existing Russian territorial liberation (ignoring the non-linear nature of war as other barflies have already noted).
Posted by: FakeBelieve | May 3 2025 17:19 utc | 70
"The agreement will without doubt be used by the U.S. to rob Ukraine of whatever valuables it has left"
Governor Trump is getting a raw deal on raw earth minerals. There's nothing there.
Looks like RUAF is consolidating their control far WSW of Pokrovsk, the AFU counter-attacks have been long since defeated against the salient (no longer salient). The AFU line have been isolated and split to Pokrovsk and Dnipro border no longer having synergy.
Posted by: unimperator | May 3 2025 17:19 utc | 72
Narendra “this is not the time of war” Modi jumped on the war-wagon in a double-quick hurry over the terrorist attack in Kashmir, directing his military to high readiness on the border India shares w/ Pakistan.
In other words, Modi acted swiftly to demonstrate how hard he was willing to come down on his neighbor, a fellow superpower. He wasn’t waiting for the outcome of an *investigation.*
Contrast that speedy decisiveness w/ Russia’s response to the Crocus City massacre in March 2024 or even the car-bomb assassination of the retired General outside his Moscow home last Friday while Witkoff was meeting w/ VVP.
My thought is that we’re about to see VVP unleashed from previous restraints or war-faring niceties and such in-yer-face terrorism will be curb-stomped.
A Leningrader, the man is getting ready to channel his Inner Leningrad.
Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 3 2025 17:22 utc | 73
Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 3 2025 16:53 utc | 66
RE: had all DJT's plans worked, MAGA would be partying like it was 9/11
<<
Sort of sad Prince did not leave an anthem in a time-capsule for a moment such as this.
Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 3 2025 17:26 utc | 74
Because something not happening is never noticed by TDS-sufferers [what passes for today's western "liberal"]:
The last missile attack on Russia that was directed by the US occurred the week before the inauguration when Team-Biden [probably auto-penned] ordered that ATACMS [I believe 8 ATACMS missiles in combination with English Storm-Shadows] be used to attack Russia in the hopes of provoking a conflagration during Trump's first weeks in office. Fortunately, Putin didn't rise to the hate-bait offered up by the never-Trump-crowd in DC/London.
Since Trump has been office, such direct attacks against Russia by the US have ceased. Of course such realities are never noticed by TDS-sufferers because; well, in some cases it's probably ignorance but, for most, certain facts don't fit with the 3LA narrative prescribed for them on mainstream-media and so those facts are studiously ignored.
Posted by: S Brennan | May 3 2025 17:27 utc | 75
@ steel_porcupine | May 3 2025 17:22 utc | 76
Once again, someone mistakes SMO's pace and means dictated by realpolitik with some form of weakness with an extra bonus of making a false comparison. Some people can't be taught.
Posted by: boneless | May 3 2025 17:29 utc | 76
I am William and I am me
Impostors are many and annoy like fleas
Please pretty moderator, please can you please
Can you police this place better cause as you can see
I’m so erudite prolific and top of the tree
Everyone everyone wants to be me
Posted by: William Not William | May 3 2025 17:37 utc | 77
This is just creating an 'Idlib' inside Ukraine, the USA is daring the Russians to attack 'their minerals'. At the moment the USA is pulling its troops out of strike range in Syria like they got out them of Afghanistan prior to the Ukraine War so the bet's on there'll be action in the Middle East and they need the Euros to hold Russia by the nose in Ukraine. Poland and Germany are vying to see who can militarise the fastest to keep the US on their side and pumping their economies. At least Poland can't get any pipelines blown up.
Of course China knows they're next on the chopping block after Iran and then th USA will come full circle and try and fix Russia.
This is creating a strategic dilemma for the Russia-China-Iran axis of 'not allies'. Do they wait for the knock at the door or try and foil the timetable ('sequence') by pre-empting something? Can this even be done without unleashing an attack?
Regardless it's like we all knew would happen; the USA will not relinquish global supremacy gracefully and will try and kick the tables over in the hopes it can salvage its position in the chaos which is won't work but they've got a fake economy, a fake industrial base and a trillion dollar a year military. Everything looks like a nail right about now.
Posted by: James 1 | May 3 2025 17:38 utc | 78
Since Trump has been office, such direct attacks against Russia by the US have ceased. Of course such realities are never noticed by TDS-sufferers because; well, in some cases it's probably ignorance but, for most, certain facts don't fit with the 3LA narrative prescribed for them on mainstream-media and so those facts are studiously ignored.
Posted by: S Brennan | May 3 2025 17:27 utc | 78
##########
TDS claims are a very Zionist refuge for scoundrels.
Trump was supplying offensive weapons first to the UkroNazis.
Trump was all-in on building NATO bases in Poland (his earliest foreign trip).
Trump oversaw the NATO training of UkroNazis.
Trump has never been for peace, just like he has never been for God.
Get that retarded stuff about Trump being pro-peace out of here.
Everything about Trump gets compared to Biden, which is an unbelievably low bar. Biden had dementia and was not running his government.
People who "suffer" from TDS are afflicted by sobriety, maturity, and honesty.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 3 2025 17:38 utc | 79
Postat av: Paco | 3 maj 2025 17:17 UTC | 72
Thank you very much for you precise answer!
Posted by: Northern Eve | May 3 2025 17:51 utc | 80
"They have many well defendable positions, Bunkers (including nuclear, and also for the population.), Which are still in use and well looked after."
No. Some are even used to shelter illegal immigrants.
Posted by: Naive | May 3 2025 16:00 utc | 51
You have to make the distinction between bunkers for the army and bunkers/shelters for the population. Today, Switzerland has around nine million shelter places in approximately 370'000 private and public shelters. Concerning the military bunkers there is a different picture. Many are form World war 2 and probably obsolete.
Posted by: NoName | May 3 2025 17:51 utc | 81
Stonebird | May 3 2025 17:03 utc | 68--
As you note, Russia is very much together in ways the West isn't. Putin and the larger legislative circle that runs Russia's government are in sync with current and future plans and goals in ways the West isn't--plus the public agrees. The number and quality of Russian produced consumer products is rising instead of falling as the West predicted and its trade is thriving despite all sorts of illegal sanctions. (And yes, the world must be reminded that they are illegal and are not to be obeyed.) Big Picture shows the new BRICS core--Russia, China, Iran--standing firm against the Outlaw US Empire bully while they don their SCO hats to diffuse the clear attack on that organization by the Empire in hopes of destabilizing relations between India and Pakistan. The timing of the attack on Iran must also be noted.
Russia has a very long Western Front, which is even longer when the Union State Belaris is included as it must. The NATO/EU Nazis want to inflict some sort of harm onto Russia but fear the consequences. Currently, they seem to think they have an advantage in the Baltic Sea or against Kaliningrad. The Finns and Poles seem to be the only ones knowing what the outcome would be if either are attacked. Trump's attack on Europe has also changed EU Nazi thinking to the point that there's now no willing coalition.
The national flags displayed at the May 9th Parade will be vastly important as will Nazi actions to attack the event.
Simply put, the U.S.-led West is not going to permit Russia to win a war it provoked Russia into waging.
Please note: I am not stating that Russia needs *permission* to win.
My statement is illustrative only of what the U.S.-led West *cannot* permit to happen (even if they are powerless to stop the inevitable.)
Once more: Russia, acting under the steam of its own agency, is impervious to what the U.S.-led West *can* or *cannot* permit. Russia’s ability to achieve its SMO aims is the result of its own strategies, implementations, combat spirit and efforts. So no *permission* needed, naturally.
The U.S.-led West, hell-bent on crushing Russia, is in a bind, because they cannot achieve those goals w/ their current proxy, Ukraine. What they need more than anything is to force a Frozen Conflict in order to have time to rearm & reload. Not happening.
DJT carried out a 100-Day diversion.
In this 2nd '100-Day' period we’re seeing the Brit-enabled massive attack on Crimea and the southern coastal ports north of Sochi, where the Black Sea Fleet is @ anchor.
Air-launched Storm Shadow cruise missiles over the Black Sea suggest aircraft may have taken off from Romania. A sea-drone's own air defense took out an SU. This was 100% a Brit escalation.
Five days *before* the Victory Day ceasefire begins. Five more nights of *slamming* Crimea’s air defense-? Playing nice, even in the run-up to the Victory hols, may have been top-of-mind for Russia, but it can’t be the path forward now.
Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 3 2025 17:56 utc | 83
Trump does not intend to put U.S. boots on the ground in Ukraine … no peace deal in the near future … the White House will leave the fighting (presence of some so-called peacekeepers) to NATO partners in Europe … mainly GB, France and Nordic states.
Trump is already imposing more sanctions on global trade of oil with Russian ally Iran that hits China.
Do not see the Middle East separate from Ukraine and conquered territories of Crimea and the Donbas. In a sudden turn, Trump left Bibi standing w/o support for an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. Both have set in stone to halt all enrichment potential and development ballistic missiles. There will be a risk of secondary effects once Israel pushes for an attack. The UK is needed, see the bombing of Yemen.
For the moment, Trump values the relationship with Putin of greater value than with actor Zelenskyy …
As the nuclear talks with Iran have been burdened by new harsh economic sanctions … this stopped any further negotiations in Rome, Qatar or Oman.
Mossad agents, warmongers trying to derail Iran-US talks | PressTV |
Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 3 2025 17:22 utc | 76
>>>
Mr. Narendra Damodardas Modi (NDM) needs to calm down.
The Islamic Republic of Pakistan (IRP) can blow up the white marble mausoleum Taj Mahal located in Agra [27.1750° N latitude and 78.0419° E longitude ] in few seconds.
This is the same place where potato face JDV was at when the latest red flag was launched in Jammu and Kashmir killing at least 26 people.
Posted by: pepe | May 3 2025 18:03 utc | 85
Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 3 2025 17:38 utc | 82
RE: comparing DJT to Biden
<<
Joe was a non compos mentis commander-in-chief who liked ice cream. President Antony B, President Jake "the slim reaper" Sullivan and President Lloyd the 3rd ran Joe's White House.
Even without an ice cream cone in hand DJT is indistinguishable from Joe. Moreover, he is the walking/talking embodiment of Antony B, Jake "the slim reaper" Sullivan and Lloyd the 3rd.
Efficiently, we got 4 for 1-!
Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 3 2025 18:07 utc | 86
Posted by: pepe | May 3 2025 18:03 utc | 88
RE: NDM needs to calm down
<<
Think how big a target the Ram Temple is.
Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 3 2025 18:11 utc | 87
It seems like only yesterday that Zelenski was whining about the juiciest deposits of Ukraine's mineral wealth being located in the areas annexed by Russia.
Or did I imagine that?
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | May 3 2025 18:17 utc | 88
@ LoveDonbass
In case it means anything and at the risk of offending other valuable contributors by omission, am generally luvin your posts…
Posted by: I forgot | May 3 2025 18:31 utc | 89
Pokrovsk is the real objective. And indications that I, Newbie, Skruffy and several others are noticing is that RFA is starting "to tendril" (gain the initiative) in this area. It just makes huge sense for Pokrovsk to be this summer's Avdiivka/Bakhmut.
Posted by: Anonymous | May 3 2025 15:29 utc | 43
If you use my name, ask what I see
Kramatorsk for summer/autumn, they're already heading for konstantinyvka
Posted by: Newbie | May 3 2025 18:39 utc | 90
#14 steel porcupine....my humble opinion gen. kellogg(flaming neocon) soon will be sniffing his breakfast Kellogg Cornflake cereal after sudden departure from VSGPDJT cabinet.....waltz/wong (both neocons/globalists/warmongers) are gone.......
Posted by: I forgot | May 3 2025 18:31 utc | 92
######
Thank you.
I get frustrated when we have to go over the same stuff again and again when the truth of it all seems obvious.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 3 2025 18:44 utc | 92
Posted by: ebear | May 3 2025 17:19 utc | 74
That's my take, as well, FWIW. The Ukrainians sold Trump a pig in a poke. Yves Smith noted that there are carve-outs in the agreement for existing Ukrainian companies and industries, such that they are exempt from having to contribute to the fund. We are talking about unknown unknowns, to the extent that there may be nothing but empty beer bottles and used condoms in the fund 10 years from now.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | May 3 2025 18:52 utc | 93
Posted by: Exile | May 3 2025 16:40 utc | 59
That is the impression I have gotten from reading what the Russian MOD has been saying the last couple of years. It will take until mid 2027 applying the active defense doctrine for Ukraine to be militarily exhausted. At which point rapid moves can be made without having to worry about NATO intervention. Unless of course a real political solution occurs before then. That seems unlikely.
Posted by: Badjoke | May 3 2025 19:01 utc | 94
Stonebird | May 3 2025 17:03 utc | 68-
I heard that prior to launching the SMO, President Putin visited the magnificent Main Cathedral of the Russian Armed Forces, built from melted Nazi tanks. I have a feeling he contemplated a long war, and many of the other points you bring up.
Thank you for all you excellent comments! I enjoyed learning how Switzerland is set up, as well.
Posted by: lex talionis | May 3 2025 19:03 utc | 95
Re-posting part of a post 2 days ago on the Ukraine Open Thread, with bolding added
Another subtle point is the point according to which the agreement is higher than the internal Ukrainian legislation. Whatever one may say, we are dealing with the loss of at least part of our sovereignty. Therefore, ironically, what the pro-Russian forces have been scaring the Ukrainians with all these years has finally happened. And, by the way, we may have problems with European integration – because from now on we will have to additionally coordinate certain international positions not only with a united Europe, but also with the United States. Which it is not known who will lead. "Unknown who" is not accidental here, because the agreement is indefinite, and its operation can only be stopped by the agreed position of both sides. That is, we will have to negotiate with the White House again.This was extracted from one of the Ukrainian media outlets I keep an eye on; it appears that not everyone in Ukraine is onside with the “deal”.Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 1 2025 19:51 utc | 120
One other thing: there seem to be questions about how abundant the mineral deposits in Ukraine actually are. I’m seeing conflicting reports, with some saying the place is dripping with stuff, while others suggest that extensive (and intensive) geological surveys were carried out during Soviet Union times which reported that, while trace deposits existed, they weren’t worth the energy and time investment needed to exploit them.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 3 2025 19:08 utc | 96
Posted by: sejmon | May 3 2025 18:42 utc | 94
RE: buh-bye to Gen Kellogg
<<
Hearing that snarling attack dog Stephen Miller will assume the now-vacant NSA role, per Axios. DJT super-trusts Miller, who has earned his chops as a major DJT loyalist.
Miller slays w/ rhetoric, so he'll be a communications asset wherever he gets installed, but so far his area of expertise has mainly focused on immigration & border concerns.
Perhaps Miller as a pick signals a shift inward for the NSA, pivoting the agency away from foreign policy right now in order to go full-tilt boogie on the domestic focus on illegals & got-aways.
Attention to domestic matters will swing DJT's polling upward a skosh.
Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 3 2025 19:10 utc | 97
A Heat Check VVP might potentially administer-?
Shooting down an MQ-9 Reaper Drone on its routine surveillance run over the Black Sea. Taking a page out of the Ansar Allah playbook.
Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 3 2025 19:13 utc | 98
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 3 2025 19:08 utc | 99
Let me guess ... the people saying that Ukraine is "dripping" with rare earths are Lindsay Graham, John Bolton, and other shit-neocons?
Please refer to ebear's post at #74
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | May 3 2025 19:23 utc | 99
NoName | May 3 2025 17:51 utc | 84
Re Bunkers;
Long long ago I worked in Neuchatel and took the road up to La Chaux de Fonds every day. I tried to identify them as I passed by. There were more than you might think, and still well camoflaged. i.e, not left totally abandoned. Those remaining WW11 bunkers were mainly firing points, with some "false" ones to confuse. Those made in the Alps are still active, and I think the US now has access to them, partially due to conjoint air-training programs.
The main Swiss army in WW11 would have retreated to the Alps, and left the plain to an invader. You can still visit some which are now tourist attractions.
The Jura fortifications would have been to slow or stop a Germn advance from France. However, although most of those defenses are now obsolete, there remain several points of entry that are newly painted and looked after..... (Info that dates to a couple of years ago, when I last walked about up there.)
Many new road tunnels have what appear to be odd "additions" and accesses that I presume could be used n the case of a war, taking into account larger weapons and bombs, but not yet drones I presume.
The comments to this entry are closed.
It was a show from the start.
All US ever wanted was to replace Biden/UK extortion racket with their own version.
They simply used Putin et el “peace” as a pawn.
That was clear from the start.
If it helped Russian envoys ect dealing with daily life in NY for UN purposes (eased living or money transfers) then Russia got something out of the act.
I’m certain the Russian Security Council, we’re never moved by any of the hoopla anyways.
Posted by: Trubind1 | May 3 2025 13:16 utc | 1