Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
May 4, 2025
Ukraine Open Thread 2025-096

News & views related to the war in Ukraine …

Comments

@ Eighthman | May 6 2025 14:26 utc | 200

We need facts here.

The irony does escape you.
I’m not telling your what to do or not do by the way. Have your own fun.

Posted by: boneless | May 6 2025 14:30 utc | 201

DJT has had his Men In Black Suits With Dark Ties experience.
Recall VVP describing to Tucker during their 2024 sit-down that he had approached Bill Clinton w/ the prospect of Russia joining NATO. This would have been midway through 2000.
And Bill is like, “Dude, for sure, we want you in NATO. Book it.”
But then the next day, as VVP relayed it to Tucker, the men in black suits w/ dark ties showed up and walked it all back.
In the past 100-Days we have seen DJT do a swan dive into his grandest dreams & schemes only to have the Men In Black Suits With Dark Ties show up and say, “Nah.”
The Directive *is* The Directive.
DJT is saddled w/ implementing it just as Bill was back in 2000, meaning you curb-stomp Russia, you regime-change Russia, you dismember Russia.
You don’t make Russia a member of NATO.
And you don’t *walk away from* a war you (as Javelin-Supplier-in-Chief) goaded Russia into waging.

Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 6 2025 14:31 utc | 202

Am in Moscow for the parade. FWIW, the folk I have talked to are resigned to the fact that this is likely to be a long war, because even though the body count is wildly in Moscow’s favor (possibly as high, currently, as 10:1), the UAF is still receiving significant infusions of non-Ukrainians sponsored by western authorities. These include the French mercenaries who were recently Kinzahl’d, subsequently revealed as Foreign Legion and on the French government payroll.

Posted by: paulC | May 6 2025 14:33 utc | 203

the UAF is still receiving significant infusions of non-Ukrainians sponsored by western authorities
Posted by: paulC | May 6 2025 14:33 utc | 204

yes, and this is the one thing where the russians have a disadvantage. russia can atritt the ukraine, but the west is trying to atritt russia with cheap cannonfodder mercenaries from colombia, syrias “moderate rebels” and other takfiri/wahabi/islamist and so on. theres also enough stupid nazis in the eu who gladly go to ukraine. germany had a tv report about “our brave soldiers on the front” (of course they were only far far away as “advisors”).
at some point russia has to make an example of either britain or poland (the former for instigating all those wars, the latter for beeing the central logistics hub for armament shipments) to stop this nonsense. because otherwise, the eu/uk and us will gladly suicide their own populations in order to get the kill. they are in for the win, no reverse gear.

Posted by: Justpassinby | May 6 2025 14:41 utc | 204

@205
Mobilization dominance! A few more DPRK infantry, maybe some Iraqi irregulars.
How do you think there are EU nazi war tourists, AQ and US wimps to counter the vast Eur-Asian populations?
US would have no nukes if you were real.

Posted by: paddy | May 6 2025 14:50 utc | 205

@205
Mobilization dominance! A few more DPRK infantry, maybe some Iraqi irregulars.
How do you think there are EU nazi war tourists, AQ and US wimps to counter the vast Eur-Asian populations?
US would have no nukes if you were real.

Posted by: paddy | May 6 2025 14:50 utc | 206

reply to 202
I hold the view that this site is for learned opinion and speculation about the war and its future. Sadly, some of us must deal with condescension rather than that pursuit but so be it.

Posted by: Eighthman | May 6 2025 15:17 utc | 207

What ever happened to that southern Zhap offensive, people were talking about months ago?
Posted by: Anonymous | May 6 2025 13:43 utc | 191
Most of the noise was from ukraine sources. Not RF
I often mentioned that before I see serious movement up the E105 I’m skeptical
Kherson, let alone Odessa, need Kryvyi Rih as a solid fulcrum IMOH

Posted by: Newbie | May 6 2025 15:19 utc | 208

I hold the view that this site is for learned opinion and speculation about the war and its future.
Posted by: Eighthman | May 6 2025 15:17 utc | 208
if yuou believe that, then quoting times radio, which is a known EU/UK/Ukro mouthpiece is a mistake on your part.

Posted by: Night Tripper | May 6 2025 15:20 utc | 209

@ Eighthman | May 6 2025 15:17 utc | 208

this site is for learned opinion

This is correct. Furthermore, this is exactly why you’re being told your source is not worth anyone’s time.

Posted by: boneless | May 6 2025 15:23 utc | 210

@ Anonymous | May 6 2025 13:43 utc | 191
What happens to banderite propaganda of n-teenth AFRF buildup is the problem of banderite propaganda audience. Oh, then why don’t you ask yourself?

Posted by: boneless | May 6 2025 15:30 utc | 211

Ukraine attack on Tyotkino is developing with more Ukr troops moved to border.
“he village was essentially in a semi-environment, and the enemy cuts logistics for the second day”

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | May 6 2025 15:48 utc | 212

Ukraine attack on Tyotkino is developing with more Ukr troops moved to border.
“he village was essentially in a semi-environment, and the enemy cuts logistics for the second day”
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | May 6 2025 15:48 utc | 215
A forward defense for sumy?
Or just plain stupid?

Posted by: Newbie | May 6 2025 16:06 utc | 213

Posted by: Newbie | May 6 2025 16:06 utc | 216
Or a classic spoiling attack, either way the idea that Ukraine can win is dead, Trump effectively killed it with his talks about mineral deals and Zelensky not having good cards (code for the removal of the US set of Aces, ISR, logistics and replacement and repair). Even the shoot-down of two Su-30’s registered barely a flicker on the MSM’s froth-o-meter, with the BBC worrying more about their favourite bi-sexual’s chances after his local election drubbing.
Same thing happened in WW2, if you read people’s diaries there seems to have been an individual moment when they realised the prospect of defeat was over, more bloody fighting, more losses, but no defeat. Same here, hardly anyone talks about it, and if they do it’s in the past tense, I doubt the politicians are any different, whatever they might have to say. The focus now is towards the events developing on the Asian continent, namely Western and Indian sub. The announced reorganisation of the US Army, reflecting the lessons learned exercise, is also an indicator that the SMO is in the past tense, even in the sub-consciousness’ of its instigators.

Posted by: Milites | May 6 2025 16:57 utc | 214

Collective Biden thought if they climbed the escalatory ladder on the battlefield they could goad VVP into making a hurried mistake or over-reacting militarily, thereby forcing the SMO to live up to the adjective most often applied by the West—-“brutal”—-as in “brutal war of aggression.”
DJT’s clever-clever team, as personified by the super-clever Gen Kellogg, thought they could goad VVP into making a hurried mistake, w/ a Sword of Damocles-style “unconditional ceasefire” hanging over him. DJT’s clever-clever team, as fronted by the super-clever Gen Kellogg thought they could compel VVP to “sign something,” even if what he signed was a bad deal. After all, a bad deal would allow Russia to regroup & consolidate forces and then take on NATO *later*—right?
Live to fight another day, as it were.
Just as Collective Biden failed in getting VVP to act rashly, so has DJT’s clever-clever team.
VVP is un-goadable.

Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 6 2025 16:58 utc | 215

In today’s presser with Canadian PM Mark ‘Carnage’ Carney, Trump telegraphed a coming ‘great announcement’. That announcement was posted here some days ago. For those that missed it here it is again. Remember, you first saw it here.
The Summit in the Sand…
https://x.com/bears_with/status/1918922467940131183
“Breaking – Putin to meet Trump in UAE May 15-16

Posted by: JohnGilberts | May 6 2025 17:05 utc | 216

“VVP is un-goadable.”
Hope so, those three (!) ISR planes over the Black Sea this morning weren’t there for fun, they’re planning something to damage Russia while he has his guests.

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | May 6 2025 17:34 utc | 217

When Sec Hegseth met in Brussels w/ his NATO counterparts just before the Munich Security Conference, he laid it on the line and told the European leaders that *they* would have to sign the checks for Project Ukraine now while the U.S. prioritized other matters, like containing China.
It was not that Sec Hegseth was having a Big Brain Moment all by himself: he was reading right out of the playbook for The Directive.
Recall The Directive = to curb-stomp Russia, to regime-change Russia, to dismember Russia.
So in Brussels, Sec Hegseth licked his finger, turned to p. 47 of the playbook for The Directive and he enunciated clearly as he read what he found there; he did not mangle any syllables or stumble over any subjunctive clauses.
Making NATO’s European team the custodians of Project Ukraine abides by The Directive—-for now. Of course the U.S. can take the public lead at some point, but now is not that time.
Once this pivot was *on*, we saw the UK and France muscle-up in their leadership and, importantly, in their public embrace—-often literally—of Zelensky. Relieved of the need to act similarly, and removed from the need to talk smack about Zelensky, DJT began to recede a bit from the proceedings. He no longer needed to dunk on Zelensky, for instance, and call him a dictator, all of which energized DJT’s MAGA base. That behavior on the part of DJT has faded away.
Curiously, however, I will note that Project Ukraine still lives rent-free in DJT’s head. Even his ideas about meeting VVP in Riyadh indicate he is still trying to gin something up, still devoting considerable time to a project he seemed willing to let the European NATO members sub-manage.
An emboldened Zelensky has begun to assume center stage; he is swelling into his greatness.
/s
In fact, Zelensky is ordering the U.S. State Department to cancel the visas of members of Ukraine’s Rada who do not ratify the recently inked Trust Fund LLC (lately known as the minerals deal.) Notably Zelensky has stepped confidently forward. No one is asking him to hold elections, for instance.
Even Peskov, representing VVP’s stance, has expressed a willingness to conduct “unconditional negotiations” directly w/ the Kiev government. Peskov still states that Zelensky is not legitimate any longer, because the Usurper of Kiev has sworn off elections, yet he nonetheless states a willingness to sit down in direct negotiations nonetheless.
In short, the UK and France were listening attentively when Sec Hegseth gave the marching orders in Brussels, and they snapped to act. As a consequence, The Directive has pivoted.

Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 6 2025 17:36 utc | 218

Are Ukraine droning the airports again?
I’m looking at this flight from Bodrum (Turkey) and it’s 115km from the Moscow Airport – “Diverting to Astrakhan”.
Most other flights still seem to be heading in though…

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | May 6 2025 17:47 utc | 219

reply to 210, 211
More condescension does not answer the accusations made.
Is the individual on Times Radio a former minister of energy in Russia, yes or no?

Posted by: Eighthman | May 6 2025 18:31 utc | 220

Posted by: Eighthman | May 6 2025 18:31 utc | 223
I don’t know if Times Radio pays people to appear on their programme or not, however the fact that he is a ‘former’ minister should in itself set alarm bells ringing.

Posted by: Night Tripper | May 6 2025 18:55 utc | 221

the closer the victory celebrations come, the shittier/nazier the eu goes.
*poland and lithuania banned ficos plane from their airspace because he intends to visit moscow.
*the lithuanians banned vucics plane for the same reason.
*in washington, europeans whined and moaned about the invitation of belarussian and russian ambassadors (among 15 other nations, most eu) to an annual event commemorating the end of ww2. so the americans invited nobody and the event is now going to be an “american” event.
this is beyond petty now. they spit on the graves of 20mil dead people, just because they are angry that putin is spoiling their project ukraine.
not a single piece of human decency left. at least the american organizers in washington knew to put aside current differences for an event. but the spoiled brat eu managed to shit on that aswell.

Posted by: Justpassinby | May 6 2025 20:24 utc | 222

Ukraine/NATO are sending drones to both Moscow and Crimea.
Moscow
▪️Video shows enemy UAV flying over Ramenskoye near Moscow.
▪️Series of explosions thundered in the city: air defense forces shoot down Ukrainian drones.
▪️5 UAVs flying to Moscow destroyed — Sobyanin reported.
▪️Residents of Ramenskoye, Shchyolkovo and Fryazino near Moscow report explosions.
Crimea
Right now, the enemy is striking Crimea and Sevastopol. It is reported that the enemy is striking with Neptune missiles.
Earlier, 2 UAVs were shot down in the sky over Crimea
via Lord of War Telegram.
Earlier today no fewer than three ISR planes were over the Black Sea. Looking for targets in Crimea, or fretting about alleged preparations for river crossings towards Kherson?

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | May 6 2025 20:46 utc | 223

They’re starting to eat each other:

The head of the [TCC] in the Rivne region was sent to the front after loud statements
The head of the Second department of the Dubensky district [TCC-SC] in the city of Radivilov, Yuri Kovalyuk, known by the nickname “Fox”, was sent to fight after a high-profile interview
This is reported by the publication “Fourth Power”, reports RegioNews .
The interview with Yuriy Kovalyuk was distributed on various all-Ukrainian media and Telegram channels.
The next day after its release, the Rivne regional [TCC-SC] reacted to it.
“The latter (Yuriy Kovalyuk-ed.), on his own initiative, published value judgments regarding mobilization measures,” moral fatigue “of personnel and allegedly” negligent attitude “to the” human resource ” in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. These statements, made in the fourth year of a full-scale war, do not contribute to strengthening the state’s defense capability, ” the report says.
Operational command “West” explained where Yuri Kovalyuk was transferred. A written response was provided by the speaker of the OK “West” Oleg Dombrovsky.
“By the order of the commander of the operational command “West”from 10.04.2025, the head of the Second Department of the Dubensky RTCC and [SC], Lieutenant Colonel Yuri Kovalyuk, was dismissed from his previous post and appointed deputy commander of military unit a 4728.”
They didn’t answer why they made such a decision, the journalists note.
Reference: Yuriy Kovalyuk was in the army in combat positions from 2014 to 2019.
In 2017, he was convicted under three articles of the Criminal Code, for crimes as the commander of the 2nd fire support company of the 130th separate intelligence battalion.
After the full-scale invasion, from February 25, 2022, he headed the battalions of the Territorial Defense Forces. In 2025, he became the head of the [TCC] in Radivilovo.
In an interview with the Fourth Power media resource, Yuriy Konovalyuk said that due to ineffective decisions of commanders, many people were lost in battles that did not make sense from the point of view of military strategy, and the mobilization of recruits failed.
Also, the head of the [TCC] said that his 22-year-old son will not be allowed to join the army.

https://regionews.ua/ukr/news/rovenskaya/1746444484-nachalnika-ttsk-na-rivnenshchini-vidpravili-na-front-pislya-guchnih-zayav (via translation add-on.)
When the enforcement thugs start arguing amongst themselves then things could get very grim indeed.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 6 2025 20:57 utc | 224

Dontcha just love all the unity and loyalty on show in Ukraine:

In Cherkasy region, the head of a [TCC] can be jailed for 12 years for disrupting mobilization
The State Bureau of Investigation has completed an investigation against the deputy head of the Cherkasy [TCC], who contributed to the disruption of the mobilization. The indictment was sent to the court
This is reported by RegioNews with reference to the State Bureau of Investigation.
According to the investigation, the officer deliberately helped some of those liable for military service to avoid conscription. His actions led to the disruption of the plan to send those mobilized to training centers and combat units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in particular those who perform tasks at the front.
“The official exceeded his authority and violated the requirements of the Law of Ukraine “On Mobilization training and Mobilization”, organizing the illegal granting of a postponement. This caused damage to the staffing of units, discredited the work of the [TCC-SC] and undermined confidence in mobilization measures,” the report says.
For the crime, the head of the [TCC] faces up to 12 years in prison.

https://regionews.ua/ukr/news/cherkasskaya/1746527086-v-cherkaskiy-oblasti-nachalnik-ttsk-mozhe-sisti-na-12-rokiv-za-zriv-mobilizatsiyi (via translation add-on.)
“Undermined confidence in mobilization measures?”… Pardon me for asking, but how, exactly, do mobilisation measures instil confidence in the first place? If you’re reduced to basically kidnapping as a means of mobilisation, then doesn’t that suggest you might have an image, let alone a credibility, problem?

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 6 2025 21:09 utc | 225

Is he a former minister of energy from Russia? Then what he says should carry some weight. I have heard that oil in Russia costs $15 to produce but their budget in September will be in trouble
Posted by: Eighthman | May 6 2025 14:04 utc | 198
_______
Fifteen seconds of rummaging through Jimmy Wales’s strangely crusty gym socks — I was wearing gloves of course — yields a name (Vladimir Milov), a former title (Deputy Minister of Energy) and his most recent political party affiliation — the one headed by none other than Alexei Navalny.
Milov may have some expertise, but his agenda os blindingly obvious.

Posted by: malenkov | May 6 2025 21:18 utc | 226

Test test….

Posted by: DunGroanin | May 6 2025 21:22 utc | 227

Posted by: Milites | May 6 2025 16:57 utc | 217
Meanwhile pokrovsk… The breakthrough either expands or fails… Waiting

Posted by: Newbie | May 6 2025 21:26 utc | 228

Ah jolly good back on! Thanks b.

Posted by: DunGroanin | May 6 2025 21:27 utc | 229

India missile strikes on Pakistan, there are casualties. Has Modi been to Netanyahu’s governance classes?

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | May 6 2025 21:33 utc | 230

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | May 6 2025 21:33 utc | 233
Without a link to a source it is difficult to work out the relevance of this to Ukraine…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 6 2025 21:46 utc | 231

The tale is that Pakistan sold nearly all their 155mm artillery shells to Ukraine and only have enough left for a few days, should serious fighting break out. Therefore India can strike them Bibi-style without worrying too much about comeback.

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | May 6 2025 22:01 utc | 232

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/airport-disruption
Major disruption reported at all three of Moscow’s airports, presumably due to drone attacks.
Ukraine/NATO are trying their hardest. To be fair I’ve only ever seen two craft in Ukrainian airspace on Flightradar in the last three years, a recently acquired ISR plane circling Lvov a week or two back, and an Antonov escaping Uzhhorod more than two years ago.

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | May 6 2025 22:09 utc | 233

Ukraine/NATO are trying their hardest.
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | May 6 2025 22:09 utc | 236

They do seem to be desperate to reclaim the narrative, don’t they. Kursk Part Deux, Crimea Redux… don’t they realize they’re reminding everyone of all their prior failures?

Posted by: TJandTheBear | May 6 2025 22:44 utc | 234

Peculiarly, Witkoff’s son and Don jr have engaged in some business dealings in Qatar at the same time that Witkoff himself has been working toward negotiations w/ Hamas in Qatar. Matters don’t look exactly germaine.
Maybe we all invested too much confidence in Witkoff’s trips to Moscow or Saint Petersburg, his lengthy sit-downs w/ VVP, believing that this was the non-political guy who could transact appropriately an end to the war in Ukraine.
In light of how peculiarly close Witkoff’s son is w/ Don jr in their business dealings, however, maybe it is time to ponder how it is that Witkoff showed up in Moscow, often w/ no other person than a translator along side him, to be the solo negotiator on behalf of the U.S.
It’s as if he was there merely w/ a notebook & nothing more.
Sometimes Witkoff returned to the U.S. w/ an incredible painting of DJT, which VVP had commissioned a leading Russian artist to paint, but still.
It is as if checks & balances were suspended on account of Witkoff’s unique statecraft.
Why would this be the case-?
Regarding Project Ukraine, Witkoff’s validity is probably immaterial by now, since he was unable to secure Russian concessions on the SMO. But it is worth noticing his degree of high-level authority in other arenas, particularly West Asia.

Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 6 2025 22:58 utc | 235

It is as if checks & balances were suspended on account of Witkoff’s unique statecraft.
Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 6 2025 22:58 utc | 238

IMHO the use of Witkoff says to me the following:
1. Russia won’t give Kellogg the time of day (and rightly so)
2. Trump doesn’t take Kellogg seriously, but has him around to please the warhawks and play “bad cop” (i.e. useful idiot)
3. Trump’s long-term interests with Russia are more business than war (which is entirely at odds with the EU & neocons)

Posted by: TJandTheBear | May 6 2025 23:12 utc | 236

It is as if checks & balances were suspended on account of Witkoff’s unique statecraft.
Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 6 2025 22:58 utc | 238

IMHO the use of Witkoff says to me the following:
1. Russia won’t give Kellogg the time of day (and rightly so)
2. Trump doesn’t take Kellogg seriously, but has him around to please the warhawks and play “bad cop” (i.e. useful idiot)
3. Trump’s long-term interests with Russia are more business than war (which is entirely at odds with the EU & neocons)

Posted by: TJandTheBear | May 6 2025 23:13 utc | 237

EXCUSE THE DOUBLE POST… site’s been giving me fits lately.

Posted by: TJandTheBear | May 6 2025 23:14 utc | 238

Posted by: ld | May 6 2025 23:26 utc | 242
############
AFAIK, Doctorow spends a lot of time talking to and following liberal fantasists in Moscow.
He’s not talking to serious people in the military, industrial, or diplomatic spheres.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 6 2025 23:40 utc | 239

Are you suggesting that liberal fantasists in Moscow are dreaming of Putin using devastating force by hitting Kiev with a squadron of their Oreshnik hypersonic missiles?
Posted by: ld | May 6 2025 23:47 utc | 244
###########
Yes, because generally, Russians don’t announce their moves before they make them.
Maybe they are going to do that, but I don’t believe they would tell Doctorow if that was the case.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 6 2025 23:49 utc | 240

Yes, because generally, Russians don’t announce their moves before they make them.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 6 2025 23:49 utc | 246

100%

Posted by: TJandTheBear | May 6 2025 23:54 utc | 241

Yesterday was the anniversary of the Odessa Trade Union building fire.
https://consortiumnews.com/2025/05/04/how-bob-parry-covered-odessa-fire-that-sparked-a-war/

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 7 2025 0:01 utc | 242

Posted by: TJandTheBear | May 6 2025 23:13 utc | 240
RE: Witkoff & business opportunities
<< When we consider The Directive, which a series of U.S. presidents have been expected to implement, including DJT right now—-curb-stomping Russia, regime-changing Russia and dismembering Russia—-we comprehend that *conducting* business operations w/ Russia has never been forbidden. In fact, during the Obama era, commerce collaborations flourished, w/ plenty of oil & gas tie-ins in the energy sector. The businessmen of both countries were focused on lucrative deals. For the bold, therefore, mutual commercial ventures are a go. I discern lull periods in The Directive, stretches of time when it is not feasible to go full pedal-to-the-metal in attempting to implement the basics: curb-stomping Russia, regime-changing Russia, dismembering Russia. We have officially entered a lull period for the U.S.-led West. Of course the U.S.-led West cannot *admit* to having failed in this gambit w/ Ukraine, because the fact is simply this: to their mind they have the *equivalent* of a Frozen Conflict, however delusional that is—-and they believe they can regroup for another round against Russia at some point in the future. Again—delulu. So we’re in a lull period. The U.S.-led West are *not* going to mount a full-tilt boogie press to change the calculus of Project Ukraine right now. Russia will continue mulching the AFU on the LOC and will continue liberating as much territory as possible. The rump portion of Ukraine that is left after Russia’s efficient work will be the portion the U.S.-led West fortifies for that *later* distant battle. In fact, a later distant battle utilizing rump Ukraine may never actually happen. Credit Russia for withstanding the economic warfare, fending off the sanctions. Gotta hat-tip Russia on surprising the U.S.-led West economically. They were ready for the worst of financial warfare the West could sling at them. Credit Russia, too, for having elaborately seized control of its civic spaces from the regime-change-minded NGOs which had long Swiss-cheesed Russian society—-whether it was a group like Memorial, which examined the legitimate impact of the gulag on Russia before it got corrupted by nefarious Western influences or even newspaper outlets like Novaya Gazeta, which purported to represent dissident views that were actually Western-implanted propaganda. Neutralizing the Navalny spear-head was significant for Russia, so you’ve got to respect the visionary way the Kremlin, the Duma, the judiciary and other entities clamped down on Western interference. The Russian military is deserving of the most respectful hat-tip of all, because it backed on the battlefield, in the grittiest way imaginable, the other critical endeavors. Historians will never stop writing about this. For a couple of days now, groups have rehearsed parade maneuvers & synced orchestration for the soon-to-be grand 9 May on Red Square. One victory calling out to another.

Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 7 2025 0:02 utc | 243

^^Re: my previous post, I guess the more accurate way to phrase it was that yesterday was the anniversary of when NEWS of the Odessa fire reached us here in “the West” – it actually happened a couple days prior.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 7 2025 0:02 utc | 244

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 7 2025 0:01 utc | 248
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 7 2025 0:02 utc | 250
RE: the Odessa massacre
<< Glad you posted this, Tom Q Robert Parry's write-up from 11 years ago is gold Thx

Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 7 2025 0:06 utc | 245

“This is very interesting if it is true.
Could the RF be seriously contemplating crossing the river and making a push along the coast to Odessa? I doubt anything so dramatic would start till well after the May 9 parade. At any rate, I imagine that Anonymous and/or Julian will correct me on my unrealistic and unfounded speculation.”
Posted by: Barrel Brown | May 6 2025 13:17 utc | 188
Military summary has been talking about this for a while now but there have been four build ups in the last few days that suggest something from the Russian side is happening on a greater scale. It may also be a diversion tactic since there are at least three areas where the Russians are concentrating efforts which spreads the need for Ukraine’s crumbling forces to cover a very long front. Down from Kursk in the Sumy region, across from Donetsk on the Donbass front moving to the west towards Dnipro, and now Kherson. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MsbmmlIlNKE
But my view (and I’m no expert) is that at sometime Russia will be soon heading across the Dnipro into Kherson and in time eventually take Odessa.

Posted by: George | May 7 2025 2:16 utc | 246

First time the west acknowledges that they lost a HIMARS
https://www.newsweek.com/russian-drones-destroy-ukraine-himars-video-2068590
Just posted because it’s official, a truer view is
https://news-pravda.com/world/2025/05/06/1302510.html
30km is far closer than 60-90, desperation?

Posted by: Newbie | May 7 2025 3:10 utc | 247

It seems trump has decided he will support ukraine as long as it takes, basically continue the biden policy. But in order to save face he needs to have ukraine look like they are doing something in return, hence the phoney mineral deal and now this “please take a few deportees” circus.

Posted by: U R | May 7 2025 3:41 utc | 248

Posted by: George | May 7 2025 2:16 utc | 254
George, like you I am no expert but I think they will head for Dnipro before going after Odessa. That is they will take a land route.
To me it seems sad but true, that the Russian navy, based in Sevastopol, has not been successful and with a weak navy, Odessa must be taken via land.
They are closing in now of the Dnipro oblast and also on Zaporizhia city.
But i am no military expert.

Posted by: watcher | May 7 2025 3:41 utc | 249

Odessa must be taken via land.
They are closing in now of the Dnipro oblast and also on Zaporizhia city.
Posted by: watcher | May 7 2025 3:41 utc | 257
you’re not alone
“I often mentioned that before I see serious movement up the E105 I’m skeptical
Kherson, let alone Odessa, need Kryvyi Rih as a solid fulcrum IMOH
Posted by: Newbie | May 6 2025 15:19 utc | 209”
Talks about kherson crossing were mainly noise from ukraine, could be wrong but…RF left because logistics would be hell

Posted by: Newbie | May 7 2025 3:56 utc | 250

Russia’s ‘Solntsepek’ (Sun’s Heat) Thermobaric Rocket Launchers against the backdrop of Moscow City business towers. Beautiful, terrifying, and a bit cyberpunkish.

cool photo
https://x.com/NinaByzantina/status/1919969870588084745

Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 7 2025 4:39 utc | 251

Posted by: Newbie | May 6 2025 21:26 utc | 231
Depends, you’re either witnessing a logistics pause, or a recognition that the current axis of advance is not viable. Remember, the army commanders still remember the Soviet mantra that was drilled into their heads, only reinforce success, let failure fend for itself. Something that some commentators fail to take into account, with their Western centric, media-led, perspective of a failure to advance equalling a victory for the defender.
As I’ve said, keep watching the K’s, my suspicion is that if they think the ISR climate will allow it they’ll make a concerted effort to convince the UAF’s that they’ll attack from one direction, whilst the hammer blow falls from another. It would be fitting to pull off a Bagration II move after celebrating the defeat of the previous target of such a move.
Final thing, does the mineral deal with Ukraine mean that Trump already knows where the line of contact will be frozen? My suspicion is that both the Russians and the US already know how and where this is going to end, with both sides helping each other’s strategic priorities, post SMO. Putin for example would be very useful in any negotiations with Iran (another DS hydra head decapitated, stump cauterised), whilst Putin has already regained the Kursk oblast doesn’t have to fear deep strikes on Russia, or increased US logistic/material support. The rhetoric is largely for media consumption and chaff, the tell, both sides behaviour aligns with the public’s perception of them.

Posted by: Milites | May 7 2025 7:48 utc | 252

Final thing, does the mineral deal with Ukraine mean that Trump already knows where the line of contact will be frozen? My suspicion is that both the Russians and the US already know how and where this is going to end, with both sides helping each other’s strategic priorities, post SMO.
Posted by: Milites | May 7 2025 7:48 utc | 252
No, because I think your logic is moving towards the rump being some kind of US protectorate due to the minerals deal, possibly backed by a huge Ukrainian army and possibly even entry into NATO
Neither of those things would ever be allowed by the Russians, and under those circumstances I dont see how a minerals deal can hold any water. (No Ukrainian amry and no foreign forces/NATO in the rump)

Posted by: Night Tripper | May 7 2025 8:31 utc | 253

Are you suggesting that liberal fantasists in Moscow are dreaming of Putin using devastating force by hitting Kiev with a squadron of their Oreshnik hypersonic missiles?
Posted by: ld | May 6 2025 23:47 utc | 244
Yes, because generally, Russians don’t announce their moves before they make them.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 6 2025 23:49 utc | 240
I don’t see anything “liberal” in wanting to survive. And “generally” Russians don’t make any moves at all. Their style is to ignore everything then Putin appears and says “sorry guys… they tricked me”
They’ve been doing this since 90s, all Nato moves, expansion, endless weapons supplies and so on were approved by both Putin and Medvedev. Now they’ve made another sad gesture of goodwill and stopped the little smo against nazis exactly on the 80th anniversary. You can’t go any lower than that.
Three day ceasefire gave nazis a blank check for unlimited terrorism with zero consequences, which the nazis happily started to use ( tass.com/politics/1954179 , tass.com/politics/1954153 )

Posted by: rk | May 7 2025 8:44 utc | 254

@ rk | May 7 2025 8:44 utc | 254
I won’t get tired call you out every time I see you blatantly lie and mislead.

Posted by: boneless | May 7 2025 9:07 utc | 255

Posted by: boneless | May 7 2025 9:07 utc | 255
Must be nice to live in an area without any crackheads around. Although it does seem to make it more difficult for you to ignore them when they start talking gibberish to themselves.

Posted by: Badjoke | May 7 2025 9:28 utc | 256

Posted by: Milites | May 7 2025 7:48 utc | 252
Maybe, but keeping forces beyond the main circle defense forces RF to keep it breached.
As for the theater part, once again maybe. The announcement of new help of 50 millions (change) felt like it.

Posted by: Newbie | May 7 2025 9:30 utc | 257

Looks like Kursk 2.0 isn’t going anything like the opening of Kursk 1.
Elsewhere, I wouldn’t usually quote these:
https://www.newsweek.com/europe-defense-spending-plan-nato-summit-hague-june-2065649
“Europe is ready to step up,” Ursula von der Leyen, the chief of the European Union’s executive arm, the European Commission, said earlier this year, as the new U.S. administration signaled it will reel in its long-standing support for the continent. “We are taking decisive action,” von der Leyen added. But in the face of uncertainty around the U.S.’s future vision for its place on the continent, there is still no clear plan for defense procurement across Europe, a central European official involved in defense planning told Newsweek. The process of moving away from dependence on the U.S. has “just started,” they said, adding: “There’s no plan at the moment.”

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | May 7 2025 9:43 utc | 258

Re: Posted by: George | May 7 2025 2:16 utc | 246

“This is very interesting if it is true.
Could the RF be seriously contemplating crossing the river and making a push along the coast to Odessa? I doubt anything so dramatic would start till well after the May 9 parade. At any rate, I imagine that Anonymous and/or Julian will correct me on my unrealistic and unfounded speculation.”
Correct BB
Posted by: Barrel Brown | May 6 2025 13:17 utc | 188
Military summary has been talking about this for a while now but there have been four build ups in the last few days that suggest something from the Russian side is happening on a greater scale. It may also be a diversion tactic since there are at least three areas where the Russians are concentrating efforts which spreads the need for Ukraine’s crumbling forces to cover a very long front. Down from Kursk in the Sumy region, across from Donetsk on the Donbass front moving to the west towards Dnipro, and now Kherson. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MsbmmlIlNKE
But my view (and I’m no expert) is that at sometime Russia will be soon heading across the Dnipro into Kherson and in time eventually take Odessa.

Happy to Barrel – and you as well George.
There is ABSOLUTE ZERO chance the Russian army will be in Odessa at any time this year or next.
Want to know how I know that to be an accurate prediction of the future?
President Putin has never stated that Russia intends to move into Odessa. He’s never stated that.
The only people who constantly talk about the Russians marching into Odessa are fantasists – many of which populate this blog – and I love your wild optimism – it is truly very entertaining!
If anyone is interested in wagering some pineapples on that prognostication – let me know.

Posted by: Julian | May 7 2025 10:05 utc | 259

Posted by: Julian | May 7 2025 10:05 utc | 259
Maybe so, however that does not mean Russia has given up on Odessa to the point that they would sacrifice it in any ‘piss deal’ that might be conconted by the Waste.
The minerals deal + the Odessa question means the war carries on indefinitely.

Posted by: Night Tripper | May 7 2025 10:08 utc | 260

According to Oleksii Chernyshov, Deputy UA Prime Minister: In 1991 there were 51 million Ukrainians. In 2015, there were 42 million Ukrainians. In 2024 there are only 32 million Ukrainians. And that is according to the Deputy PM. (welt.de)
At this rate, the last Ukrainian will be long gone before the Russian army is in Kiev.

Posted by: Passerby | May 7 2025 10:33 utc | 261

Posted by: Night Tripper | May 7 2025 8:31 utc | 253
Whilst your logic suggests Trump is simply following the globalist play book, which I think he isn’t for the simple reason he’s an egotist. Being President, for Trump, is not about personal gain, as it was for his predecessors, it’s about the exercising of executive power, and as the DS interferes with that power-dynamic its influence must be removed. I doubt Putin will have entertained his envoy if he thought Trump was like all the rest.
Posted by: Newbie | May 7 2025 9:30 utc | 257
Yup, all we have is maybe’s, which is why the Ukrainians must be pretty nervous, especially if their ISR is being degraded.

Posted by: Milites | May 7 2025 10:37 utc | 262

At this rate, the last Ukrainian will be long gone before the Russian army is in Kiev.
Posted by: Passerby | May 7 2025 10:33 utc | 261
Correct, AFU could muster 7 million reserves when they were near 50 million.
Near 30 million to get 4 million would be the limit.
They already spent well over 3 million…
Do the math

Posted by: Newbie | May 7 2025 10:41 utc | 263

Posted by: Milites | May 7 2025 10:37 utc | 262
Lets then suppose there is no defence of the rump, and that there is a pro Russian government in the rump, which is the other option if you disagree that Trump is not following the standard neo-con playbook and if feel that the Minerals deal in factg marks some kind of ‘demarcation line’.
Is that really a deal that the EU, and Ukros (whatever is left of them) and the neo-cons would ever sign up to?
And in the highly unlikely even that they did, are you seriously of the belief that Russia would make no efforts towards Odessa, Kherson oblast and Kiev itself?
I dont see it personally.
If everyone walks away bar the Russians, then the whole of Ukraine collapses.

Posted by: Night Tripper | May 7 2025 10:48 utc | 264

Posted by: Newbie | May 7 2025 9:30 utc | 257
Yup, all we have is maybe’s, which is why the Ukrainians must be pretty nervous, especially if their ISR is being degraded.
Posted by: Milites | May 7 2025 10:37 utc | 262
A clue could be the HIMARS hit at less than 30 kms from frontline

Posted by: Newbie | May 7 2025 11:17 utc | 265

Awful Avalanche, run by Yalensis, has an important story out today. May 7, 2025.
North of Moscow, is a very important steel mill, owned by an old-school oligarch. Evidently the oligarch has been “dragging” his feet…The current gov. of the oblast is an ally of Putin , and is been pointing out the oligarch’s Western leanings, lately… Perhaps the oligarch will have a change of heart, or something.

Posted by: donten | May 7 2025 12:16 utc | 266

Making no one regret that the Collective Biden ensemble got removed from the White House:
“Putin “can’t stand the fact that the Russian dictatorship that he runs, that the Soviet Union has collapsed — and anybody that thinks he’s going to stop it’s just foolish,” Joe told the BBC in an interview that *someone* apparently thought necessary.
“Suggesting that Ukraine will have to give up territory is modern-day appeasement.”
It was not lost on the BBC interviewer that Joe was giving a nod to British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain’s efforts to appease Hitler in the 1930s before the Second World War.

Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 7 2025 12:47 utc | 267

Merz has already made it crystal clear he will send the Taurus missiles. Russia will make threats about crossing red lines, nuking Berlin and all that jazz and then will bomb another residential area in Kyiv as a response and move on.

Posted by: Young Dan | May 7 2025 13:31 utc | 268

I’m half curious to start running a tally of new nicknames saying exactly the same things exactly the same way. I wonder, do they use an LLM to come up with new names too?

Posted by: boneless | May 7 2025 13:46 utc | 269

I figured the “former minister” probably worked under Yeltsin, and I was right. Looks like it took a couple of years for him to get cleaned out, but that was 23 years ago. Putin didn’t go for his plan to hand over Gazprom to the vulture capitalists. Now he lives in Lithuania, and ekes out a living trashing Russia, it appears.
“Vladimir Milov is a Russian opposition politician, publicist, economist, and energy expert. In 1997-2002, Mr. Milov had worked with the Russian Government (Federal Energy Commission and Ministry of Energy), including being a Deputy Energy Minister in 2002. He was the author of concept of breaking up and unbundling Gazprom vetoed by Vladimir Putin.
Later, Mr. Milov became one of the major public critics of Vladimir Putin, working closely with late opposition politician Boris Nemtsov, and later – as an advisor to the late Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny. Research Associate at the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies in Brussels, Vice President of the Free Russia Foundation (Washington D.C.). Currently based in Vilnius, Lithuania.”
The Duran boys floated a credible reason for the “minerals deal”. Alexander Mercouris points out that speculating from what info has been released, it seems that the US and Ukraine are setting up an unaccountable slush fund, into which tax money flows. And from there, where does it go? Nobody will know. It’s based in Ukraine, where the DOGE boys or anyone else, will not be able to audit.
Makes sense to me.

Posted by: wagelaborer | May 7 2025 16:27 utc | 270

Merz has already made it crystal clear he will send the Taurus missiles. Russia will make threats about crossing red lines, nuking Berlin and all that jazz and then will bomb another residential area in Kyiv as a response and move on.
Posted by: Young Dan | May 7 2025 13:31 utc | 268

The very low number of death from these bombings indicates IMU that it is not attacks on those residential blocks you see, it is fragments of defensive rockets and some Russian munitions, damaged on deviated flightpath.
( Ukraine does not talk about the real targets that are being destroyed.)
Here Tagesschau still shows an image from 2022 the “see through residential block” when reporting on Russian attacks.

Posted by: MAKK | May 7 2025 17:30 utc | 271

VVP is un-goadable
At what point does “un-goadable” become “unfit” to be a wartime leader?
Zero Hedge reports: “Hours before Putin’s unilaterally declared three-day Victory Day ceasefire is expected to go into effect (starting May 8), Ukraine has launched a huge cross-border drone attack on Russia which has reportedly unleashed air traffic and flight chaos in an around Moscow, as well as other regions.
Does a drone have to land on the Victory Day Parade in Red Square before VVP takes definitive action against the US generals at Weisbaden who continue to direct daily attacks against Russia?

Posted by: Perimetr | May 7 2025 18:53 utc | 272

The SBU is very competent. Ironically, they have way more Soviet/KGB heritage than any of the Russian agencies.

Posted by: Nordic ned | May 7 2025 18:59 utc | 273

▪️Airborne assault aircraft are clearing Chapayev Street in Tyotkino, where the Ukrainian Armed Forces infantry had previously managed to break through. Fierce fighting is underway.
▪️Small arms battles are also breaking out on the state border, where Ukrainian militants have been trying to break through to Russian territory from the area of ​​the villages of Iskriskovshchina and Budki in the Sumy region for 3 days.
▪️In the area of ​​the New Path, all enemy offensive attempts have been repelled, a significant number of armored vehicles have been destroyed.
▪️The enemy continues to move reserves to the border area, without yet introducing them into battle. New attempts by the Ukrainian Armed Forces to advance using reserves are expected in the coming days.
(via Lord Of War Telegram). Sounds like Kursk 2.0 is stopped, but not yet defeated.

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | May 7 2025 19:08 utc | 274

▪️Airborne assault aircraft are clearing Chapayev Street in Tyotkino, where the Ukrainian Armed Forces infantry had previously managed to break through. Fierce fighting is underway.
▪️Small arms battles are also breaking out on the state border, where Ukrainian militants have been trying to break through to Russian territory from the area of ​​the villages of Iskriskovshchina and Budki in the Sumy region for 3 days.
▪️In the area of ​​the New Path, all enemy offensive attempts have been repelled, a significant number of armored vehicles have been destroyed.
▪️The enemy continues to move reserves to the border area, without yet introducing them into battle. New attempts by the Ukrainian Armed Forces to advance using reserves are expected in the coming days.
(via Lord Of War Telegram). Sounds like Kursk 2.0 is stopped, but not yet defeated.

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | May 7 2025 19:10 utc | 275

Russian agents ARE incompetent and have more than demonstrated that. I genuinely think they are not trained to operate in a totally hostile environment like that. They’re used to peacetime sloppiness.

Posted by: Maverick Top Gun | May 7 2025 19:20 utc | 276

Lord Of War again, I think not quoting any third party.
How will we respond in case of attacks during the Victory Parade
Here, of course, it depends on the damage caused. But Russia has never taken any drastic steps based on emotions. This is Vladimir Putin. Therefore, I do not think that the “response” will be lightning fast.
✔️ But in the future, European leaders may well forget about cloudless trips to Kyiv by train. Moscow has never launched strikes when EU and NATO functionaries came to Ukraine. If the Russian capital is attacked during the Victory Day celebrations, it is quite possible that we will forget about this unspoken tradition (not to strike Kyiv while “political tourists” are there).
✔️We will respond to provocations on the contact line in the same way as during the Easter truce. If Kyiv is thinking of using the three-day moratorium to create a new bridgehead in the Kursk region, then instead you will get new Krynki. As recently in the Belgorod region in the area of ​​Popovka and Demidovka. As, in fact, in other areas.
By the way, during the last ceasefire, in some areas the parties used the moratorium to remove the bodies of the dead from the battlefield.
✔️ A rumor has spread across social networks that Russia is preparing to strike Bankova with Oreshnik. Allegedly, Ukrainian officials are already taking their families out of Kyiv. I can’t even imagine what the source of such information must be. And I very much doubt that in response to the strike on Parad, we will strike the office of the expired president of Ukraine. I would rate the possibility of using this newest missile as 50/50 – either we will strike or not. But the target will clearly be military. And clearly very sensitive for Ukraine. Personally, I see no point in launching an expensive munition, the industrial production of which is only just being established, for a war with bricks. But the decision, of course, is up to the military-political leadership of the country. In any case, it seems to me that such a retaliatory strike will be carried out after the end of the truce.
✔️We still have quite traditional means of destruction, the range of which is regularly replenished. And we are quite capable of carrying out massive combined strikes across Ukraine for several days in a row. Especially after a month-long energy truce, during which we managed to accumulate a certain number of cruise missiles of various types.

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | May 7 2025 19:58 utc | 277

Daily DS update: https://deepstatemap.live/en#6/49.4324126/32.0581055
Overall: Another slow day for the RFA, taking 11.5 ksmq. This is half the NOV2024 pace. At this rate, it would take ~8 years to accomplish Putin’s stated objectives (the 4 contested oblasts, plus Crimea, but NOT Odessa).
I’m still waiting for the “signs of cracking” to include inability to defend territory. As it is, the inexerable accelerations of 2H2024 turned into deceleration in 1H2025.
Winter is over. Pokrosk was in the upper 70s today. Many people here (and even in the MSM) predicted P town to fall in summer 2024. And yet…there it stands. Looks like Skruffy was right to say the battle wouldn’t even start for a year. He’s pro-Ukrop, but he’s also insightful. Awesome explanation of how long it would take to prepare the flanks.
Specific changes, S to N:
1. A large amoeba-shaped polygon on the E Pokrovsk flank, near Tarasivka. The gain include red in Novoolenkivka and Oleksandropil. The former was a “motorcycle advance” that has been successful enough to go to red. (Gray for a couple days.) Of interest, a different, but associated gray shows continued movement into Novo Poltoka, the stronghold that has frustrated RFA attempts to take “the crossing” for several months. It looks like the “flank even wider to the E” approach is grinding towards better results than the “bang your head on the same wall” approach did.
2. Smaller gain, in Leonidivka. This is N of New York. A pocket has been there between NY and Toretsk for a while, but is getting deeper now. Perhaps something to watch for in future (front straightening and pocket filling).
2.

Posted by: Anonymous | May 7 2025 19:59 utc | 278

More loyalty and unity of purpose:

Attempt to escape from the [TCC] in Khmelnitsky: a man jumped out of the window
Today, on May 7, in one of the [TCC]s in Khmelnitsky region, a conscript who was undergoing a medical examination tried to escape by jumping out of a second-floor window while waiting for the commission’s decision
This was reported in the Khmelnitsky regional [TCC-SC], reports RegioNews .
It is noted that the victim was immediately given first pre-medical care by doctors who were on the spot, after which the man was hospitalized.
The center notes that no physical or psychological pressure on the subject of military service was carried out.
“Passing a military medical commission or other procedures may cause stress or anxiety, but this is not a basis for making decisions that threaten life or health,” the TCC said in an official statement.
~~~
Recently, social networks published a video from a meeting held by the Zhytomyr regional [TCC-SC]. in the description from the video, it was noted that the department directly calls for using fraudulent actions for mobilization.

https://regionews.ua/ukr/news/hmelnitskaya/1746619551-sproba-vtechi-z-ttsk-u-hmelnitskomu-cholovik-vistribnuv-iz-vikna (via translation add-on.)
Presumably this isn’t a result of “Undermined confidence in mobilization measures?”…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 7 2025 20:11 utc | 279

YetAnotherAnon | May 7 2025 19:58 utc | 277
“Lord Of War again, I think not quoting any third party.
How will we respond in case of attacks during the Victory Parade
Here, of course, it depends on the damage caused. But Russia has never taken any drastic steps based on emotions. This is Vladimir Putin. Therefore, I do not think that the “response” will be lightning fast.”

That’s one of the most stupid things I’ve heard anyone say in the 3+ years of this war. No rational person hasn’t been thinking for months now about the possibility of a NATO attack on the Victory celebration. (A Ukraine attack is of course a NATO attack. Even Putin has admitted that he is well aware of this.) Therefore it would be treason or the most gross negligence conceivable if Russia has not long had a full plan in place, conceived ahead of time with no emotional influence whatsoever, for the response to such an attack.
This “Lord of War” clown is merely offering a lame alibi ahead of time for why Russia’s response to any May 9th attack will be equally lame.
Perimetr | May 7 2025 18:53 utc | 272
“Does a drone have to land on the Victory Day Parade in Red Square before VVP takes definitive action against the US generals at Weisbaden who continue to direct daily attacks against Russia?”
Even then they won’t.

Posted by: Flying Dutchman | May 7 2025 20:15 utc | 280

Posted by: Flying Dutchman | May 7 2025 20:15 utc | 280
M’kay, but don’t forget that Western “leaders” won’t be passing up the chance to ponce about on the beaches at Arromanche and nearby on 6th June; could be a “target-rich” environment there…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 7 2025 20:26 utc | 281

@ Nordic ned | May 7 2025 18:59 utc | 273
Western-installed so-called-government of so-called-ukraine has fired many of their original SBU officers and imprisoned some others back in 2014. The SBU banderites like you praise now are overwhelmingly CIA trained bandits.
Now I know this wasn’t a genuine poster, but I thought it’s worth mentioning anyway.

Posted by: boneless | May 7 2025 20:33 utc | 282

Does a drone have to land on the Victory Day Parade in Red Square before VVP takes definitive action against the US generals at Weisbaden who continue to direct daily attacks against Russia?
Posted by: Perimetr | May 7 2025 18:53 utc | 272
The guy who protects the proxy at the expense of his own? Never. Putin is on surrender mode, nothing can stop him now. Though he’s partially forced by team Gerasy-Shoigu, they keep failing to produce results so he has no other options, he can’t change them. The same team probably told him to stay paralyzed in 2014, not do anything because Ukr had no army and was an easy win, and winning is not allowed. So from one ceasefire to another, the population will get used to unlimited terrorism, accept they have no MoD and approve the surrender with joy

Posted by: rk | May 7 2025 22:17 utc | 283

Now that’s just a bad line of coke right there.

Posted by: boneless | May 7 2025 22:25 utc | 284

Would someone please provide a link to an article or video that outlines the economic motivations for the the Ukraine conflict?
I think it is wholly inspired by such yet in all my recorded links I haven’t one that seems to address just that and
a quick google around and such doesn’t find one either. It finds plenty discussing the economics now, predicting the future etc. but none that outline just what economic considerations prompted the initiating of the whole thing.
i.e. why did America and UK do it? Who amongst them was planning to gain what? The more detail the better.

Posted by: arthur brogard | May 7 2025 22:42 utc | 285

The little girl asks: “Daddy, what does incompetent idiocy by a fool look like?”
Daddy answers: “Simple my pet. Russia’s 72-hour ‘Victory Day’ truce begins. Putin’s truce aims to open peace talks as Ukraine keeps up drone attacks. That man is an idiot.”

Posted by: idiocy | May 7 2025 23:27 utc | 286

The Putin-haters here have over-egged the pudding, but they do have a fair point … what possible benefit does Putin see from a unilateral ceasefire?

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | May 7 2025 23:57 utc | 287

Posted by: arthur brogard | May 7 2025 22:42 utc | 285
#######
It wasn’t economically oriented per se.
It’s about power, ideology, and colonialism, IMO.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 8 2025 0:03 utc | 288

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | May 7 2025 23:57 utc | 287
#######
It’s time-limited, and while he is hosting several world leaders. Russia allowed lots of visitation to Kiev during the SMO but there are no guarantees that the Nazis will do the same. I do not understand the controversy from the Chair Force Generals.
It’s 3 days, and when the weekend event is over, I imagine Russia will return to full tempo instantly.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 8 2025 0:08 utc | 289

The Putin-haters here have over-egged the pudding, but they do have a fair point … what possible benefit does Putin see from a unilateral ceasefire?
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | May 7 2025 23:57 utc | 287
To respect the 27 million soviet people that died in the fight against fascism. Soldiers on the Ukraine front line will also want to be able to do this bit cannot celebrate the victory over fascism unless the supreme commander signs an order.

Posted by: HERMIUS | May 8 2025 0:09 utc | 290

while RU follows:”Keep men, lose land: land can be retaken. Keep land, lose men: both land and men are lost.” and continues to slowly collapse a huge country, Ukraine + backers mostly do the opposite of ”focus on using propaganda to serve military operation, never use military operation to serve propaganda” in order to deceive their western audience about the reality.
Ukraine’s population declined to around 20 million in 2023 and 55-60% of the population are pensioners (1,2), birth rates were the lowest in the world in 2023 (TFI of 0.7) (3), life expectancy for men in 2023 dropped to 57y, 71y for women (4), average age of soldiers was at 30-35 at the start of 2022 and reached 43 in October 2023 (5) on top of all this many men are fleeing or hiding, the country is still huge and has 30k villages, the authorities don’t have the means to hunt down and find most civilians and many people just leave in legal ways (6). Most of this is outdated by 2 years, it’s all worse now while most UA backers just ignore and cope their way out of reality.

Posted by: CHIFFRE | May 8 2025 0:43 utc | 291

Posted by: HERMIUS | May 8 2025 0:09 utc | 290
I appreciate the reply. That’s a noble reason … however, we’re not dealing with noble individuals in Kiev, London, or DC.
We’re dealing with animals that need to be put down.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | May 8 2025 0:49 utc | 292

the Bum’s Rush is full-on once more: Gen Kellogg has indicated Kiev’s willingness to Freeze the Conflict and retreat 15km from the current front-line in order to establish a 30km wide demilitarized zone “that you can actually monitor and observe,” according to Gen Kellogg.
As DJT’s team casts about for a way to *trick* Russia into *capitulating* Gen Kellogg proves himself the sharpest knife in the drawer. Armistice-minded down to the beds of his toenails, Gen Kellogg is still auguring for a scintilla of credibility.
If Reassurance Forces can “monitor and observe” the demilitarized zone, then the conflict will be over, especially if those “monitoring & observing” fail to notice UK and French troops posting up.
It’s downright weird that Gen Kellogg would continue serving up leftovers from last night’s dinner. Are we in the 21st Century-?
Peskov to TASS: “There have been no relevant statements by Kiev on this issue.”

Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 8 2025 1:14 utc | 293

On top of which, JD, addressing a Munich Leaders summit in D.C. said, in reference to VVP’s *core issues*, “The Russians are asking for a cetain set of requirements, a certain set of concessions, in order to end the conflict. We think they’re asking for too much.”
DJT, asked to comment on this, said, “It’s possible that JD’s right. I’m not happy about it.”
Russia’s demands for ending hostilities have remained steady & unchanging: Ukraine must demilitarize, denazify, abandon NATO ambitions and remain nuclear free. In addition, Kiev must recognize the Russian regions of Crimea, Kherson, Zaporozhye as well as Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics.
DJT and JD are flailing, unable to deal w/ the inevitable.

Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 8 2025 1:28 utc | 294

DJT *heard* what Russia’s terms were but did not *listen.*
His ability to take meaningful action is as diminished as Collective Biden’s was. The U.S. sees the inevitable—a Russian military victory—but cannot of course aid & abet it.
The tedium of this soap opera has to play out.

Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 8 2025 1:36 utc | 295

Moreover, DJT needs Congressional neocons to help pass his reconciliation bill in mid-July, so the U.S.’s legislative cycle still governs its foreign policy. DJT has to please various masters right now and make sure no Republicans prance.

Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 8 2025 1:41 utc | 296

DS had a second update for the day, showing a loss of 3.6 kmsq for the day. Counterattack by UFA took a position in Lyptsi from the RFA (Kharkov buffer zone area). Netting the 11.5 minus 3.6, makes the actual day worse. Only 7.9 kmsq taken.

Posted by: Anonymous | May 8 2025 2:19 utc | 297

The Putin apologists remind me of Trump excusers. Whenever he does something dumb it must be 5D chess. If there weren’t a ceasefire, they would say that was the right policy. Conversely if there is one. Some of them even defended the failed attack on Kiev at the beginning of the war as some sort of sooper seekrit good idea.
And I’m not even in the disagree with everything Putin does camp. But you have to be able to call balls and strikes. Not just judge every single play a winner.

Posted by: Anonymous | May 8 2025 2:22 utc | 298

Afraid your posts landed at end of page…
Few will read them 🙂

Posted by: Newbie | May 8 2025 2:51 utc | 299

@Anonymous
I thought, when Russia made that move toward Kiev, that it was a pinning move, so Ukraine couldn’t send troops to defend where Russia wanted to attack.

Posted by: Featherless | May 8 2025 3:26 utc | 300