Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
May 4, 2025
Ukraine Open Thread 2025-096

News & views related to the war in Ukraine …

Comments

DPA/Wyatt frontline changes report: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kqhl_UcqXXM
Note that at the end, he does a compilation of speed of advance and shows ~20 kmsq over two days or about 10/day.
To his credit, he does normalize by number of days (have seen him miss this before). However, the bulk of his reports are UFA or geolocation confirmations of previous RFA advances. The problem here is he is double counting. He counts it when it is an RFA claim. And then later counts it when confirmed. He tries to excuse this as “entertainment” and “two maps”, but it’s extremely poor analysis. I’m fine with EITHER MAP (optimistic or pessimistic) being used to track RFA advance. But you should not use both at same time. You are double counting.
And no, it’s not just entertainment. I don’t expect perfection. But at least common sense. Don’t double count! Pick ONE MAP and use that as the reference.
Oh…and turn off the WhatsApp notification alarm. And get off my lawn.

Posted by: Anonymous | May 4 2025 14:52 utc | 1

Thank you b, for the Jonathan Cooke article on the Guardian’s drip-drip-drip of news about atrocities committed by Israel posted in the Week in Review. There is also a video from the Duran posted in this week’s lineup featuring John Meirsheimer and Glenn Diesen which demonstrates an equally culpable change of narration that distorts the argument regarding Ukraine, being presented as an unsolvable war no matter the result. Given that body’s usual careful accuracy on this subject, I found this change extremely disturbing. So I shall present again, in my next post, that link.
The two conflicts seem to be joined at the hip in such deviations from accurate reporting. We have become accustomed to having to come online to find journalism we can rely on, but lately the field has been increasingly under attack. We can’t do a lot as mere observers but at least we can point out distortions as they occur.
And Mark2 at 1, please refrain from such attacks. We have no authority here; it is b’s blog.

Posted by: juliania | May 4 2025 15:17 utc | 2

Here is the video I referenced in my comment 3 above. I would be happy to have others’ opinion of it. I realize there are plenty of excellent observations by the participants which I have not referenced, but to my mind those only make the dispiriting equalization of the sides in the conflict more than just a polite reference point. It may have been a personal opinion but it ought to have been contested. That is my feeling. I’m happy to have others disagree, as many did in the comments to the video.

Posted by: juliania | May 4 2025 15:28 utc | 3

Here is the video I referenced in my comment 3 above. I would be happy to have others’ opinion of it. I realize there are plenty of excellent observations by the participants which I have not referenced, but to my mind those only make the dispiriting equalization of the sides in the conflict more than just a polite reference point. It may have been a personal opinion but it ought to have been contested. That is my feeling. I’m happy to have others disagree, as many did in the comments to the video.

Posted by: juliania | May 4 2025 15:28 utc | 4

Woops, that went before I was ready.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dy60zHLlNGU&t=3745s

Posted by: juliania | May 4 2025 15:30 utc | 5

Woops, that went before I was ready.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dy60zHLlNGU&t=3745s

Posted by: juliania | May 4 2025 15:32 utc | 6

Ukraine and World Affairs: Weekly Update, 2nd May 2025: May be useful to some: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-and-world-affairs-weekly-f3b

Posted by: The Busker | May 4 2025 15:50 utc | 7

The Duran.
Russian military objectives w/ Stanislav Krapivnik
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sUCjIWgHs4w

Posted by: unimperator | May 4 2025 15:53 utc | 8

Almost 1.500 day
all maps show bridgehead SW of a yantarne
all maps show breach of pokrovsk main circle defense
all maps show multi-pronged drive north towards konstantinivka
all except DS 😀

Posted by: Newbie | May 4 2025 16:00 utc | 9

Here is the video I referenced in my comment 3 above. I would be happy to have others’ opinion of it. I realize there are plenty of excellent observations by the participants which I have not referenced, but to my mind those only make the dispiriting equalization of the sides in the conflict more than just a polite reference point. It may have been a personal opinion but it ought to have been contested. That is my feeling. I’m happy to have others disagree, as many did in the comments to the video.
Posted by: juliania | May 4 2025 15:28 utc | 4
I agree with you,Juliana!

Posted by: Northern Eve | May 4 2025 16:11 utc | 10

Some takes:
-RUAF Will encircle Kharkov
-Slavyansk and Kramatorsk are cut off from Kharkov when Lyman falls
-From Lyman Slavyansk and Kramatorsk effectively isolated, and also straight shot up toward Kharkov
-AFU complains RUAF not playing ‘fair’ by not attacking cities head-on, but encircling
-AFU facing two front war along Dniepr in the south and the East, with limited logistics over two bridges and Kharkov route under threat
-Kharkov electricity fragile, causing most people to leave and less human shields for AFU
-Chasov Yar was the last major fort area in the central front, the ones west of it are a speed bump relatively
-Kherson will have to be dealt (probably after other advances have taken place)

Posted by: unimperator | May 4 2025 16:13 utc | 11

Posted by: Newbie | May 4 2025 16:00 utc | 10

Does anyone else try to sell UAF beautiful retreat over RAF poor advance?

Posted by: Rutte | May 4 2025 16:14 utc | 12

This thread is looking a bit like a failure to launch scenario.
To really get it moving, I will impart a little thought candy for those with some time to chew…
Putin is NOT looking like he’s impotent and out of options no matter what the one article in the weekly review seems to imply, far from it. Putin is working from a plan laid out a few years earlier so there will be no surprises for the Kremlin and Russian General Staff to worry over no matter what comes down the pike.
**Russia has already agreed along with China to a total transition of power from West to East and this is good news for Asia, Africa and the Global South but there WILL be a few bumps in the road to get there. Russia with 10,000 tons of gold and China, with 20,000 tons are all set to backstop a somewhat less than cordial hand-off of power by the all powerful bankster cabal. There will be a few eggs cracked to get to this Big, Beautiful transfer of wealth but in the end, Putin, XI and a few others will step up to take the place of the politicos front-running the decline of the Western Financial System. Things are going slowly right now, but soon the regional wars that could be building in the ME and with these EU puppies will take us to the next phase of this transition.
Forget the popcorn, you need supplies, food and water, and real money. Become independent quickly..

Posted by: bisfugged | May 4 2025 16:19 utc | 13

-Of RUAF 1.5 million (growing) army 600k involved in Ukraine, rotations happen for experience gain
-RHeinmetall built 8 tanks and NATO 40 tanks vs. Russia built 400 last year
-US sucking money out of EU since EU can’t arm Ukraine itself
-EU fully committed in Ukraine
-Potential French/UK contingent trying to run toward Odessa would come under attack

Posted by: unimperator | May 4 2025 16:22 utc | 14

Christoforou is going to have to ‘up’ his cat treats game by opening the cellophane bag of treats *before* he begins his walk ‘n talk video.
That way, when he encounters one of the Cats of Limassol, he won’t have to set his videocam down, its lens trained, close-up, on a pile of gravel for 30 seconds, while he struggles to open the cellophane bag.
Plus–one of the cats walked away, uninterested, when Christoforou took *forever* in readying the treats.
Plenty of distractions when addressing geopolitical events relative to the SMO lately. Nothing against cats, especially urban strays, but it seems ever since DJT phoned VVP that first week of February the commentary from our faves has taken a nosedive.
It’s as if it is difficult for our faves to reboot the plot-line when they give commentary on Project Ukraine these days. It’s like when Season One of a streaming-series ends and the scriptwriters sit around, unable to figure out what to do for Season Two.
Something in DJT’s stepping in after retaking the White House has put some English on the narrative thread. DJT spent three months negotiating and then misdirecting and then gnashing his teeth about “all the killing” and then ultimately affirming the U.S.’s support for Ukraine.
But it is as if an aspect of the past 3 months, related to DJT’s style of diplomacy, has sucked all the air out of the room.

Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 4 2025 16:37 utc | 15

Rt reports “Putin said;”
https://www.rt.com/russia/616711-putin-collective-west-conflict/
May, 2025 15:54
HomeRussia & FSU
Russia standing alone against West – Putin
Excerpts only:
“Russia is essentially standing alone against the collective West. This required a serious attitude to the possible development of the situation in this particular sense,” Putin stated.”
“Russia is standing alone against the West, which is waging an “existential war” against the country, President Vladimir Putin has said”
Give it up Putin, your poor “put upon” Nation, …all “alone”.
As if Iran, Cuba, Venezuela, Myanmar, North Korea haven’t been “standing alone” against the collective West for 40 years or more.
Your stupid lil 2-3 year spat, whereby all these nations, including China & So. Africa have been, in fact, aiding and supporting your dumb ass.
For an otherwise excellent Statesman and Leader of Russia, these “Trump-like” statements reflect he is spending way too much time of late talking with Trump. Poor “victimized” Russia.

Posted by: Trubind1 | May 4 2025 16:42 utc | 16

Posted by: Trubind1 | May 4 2025 16:42 utc | 17
##########
Friend, worry less about what people say, and more about what they do.
All talk is cheap.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 4 2025 16:47 utc | 17

Can someone please explain what 3LA is? I tried a search engine, but it was unhelpful.
And big thanks to Rob Campbell for his weekly round-ups of the news. That I find helpful.

Posted by: wagelaborer | May 4 2025 16:50 utc | 18

Can someone please explain what 3LA is? I tried a search engine, but it was unhelpful.
And big thanks to Rob Campbell for his weekly round-ups of the news. That I find helpful.

Posted by: wagelaborer | May 4 2025 16:50 utc | 19

https://t.me/CyberspecNews/80275
Kyiv struck earlier this evening…Secondary explosions occuring.

Posted by: donten | May 4 2025 16:52 utc | 20

Posted by: wagelaborer | May 4 2025 16:50 utc | 20
3 Letter Agencies

Posted by: Mary | May 4 2025 16:58 utc | 21

RE: All talk is cheap.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 4 2025 16:47 utc | 18
True.
Just wish this whole last 50 years of “victum” card worship would end.
Even further, it is rather publicly disrespectful to those that have, both publicly & privately “stood” alongside of Russia. Like Belarus even.

Posted by: Trubind1 | May 4 2025 16:58 utc | 22

UKR sources report situation is bad in the area of Konstantinovka, where RUAF Drones control all movement. Combined with earlier reports AFU counter-attacks coming out of Konstantinovka toward the southern RUAF advance were repelled, we might see RUAF getting a firm grip in south outskirts of Konstantinovka soon.

Posted by: unimperator | May 4 2025 17:03 utc | 23

Posted by: juliania | May 4 2025 15:17 utc | 3
Posted by: Northern Eve | May 4 2025 16:11 utc | 11
RE: interrogating the Duran Channel’s vid w/ Diesen, Mercouris & Mearsheimer
<< I sense a measure, among our faves, of grasping about, attempting to find a unique way to drill down into the SMO and, more broadly, Project Ukraine that will lend insight to the doings, but some element---is it energy? is it spirited illumination?---is no longer operative as it was, say, 8 months ago. It's as if all the secrets & surprises have drained away by now. Something in DJT's appearance on the scene has kicked the stuffing out of Project Ukraine. My thought is that the false promises of DJT's desire quickly to end the war took our fave commentators & *us* to a summit of expectation. All that has gone kaput by now, and we're left w/ the ordinariness of the SMO, the routine of Project Ukraine, without anything having refreshed them. I think this is a passing phenomenon, something transitory, however. Our faves will get their mojo back and be able to pivot. I'm listening to the gents interview Stanislav Krapivnik right now about the LOC, and all three guys are delivering bigly.

Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 4 2025 17:05 utc | 24

Posted by: juliania | May 4 2025 15:17 utc | 3
Posted by: Northern Eve | May 4 2025 16:11 utc | 11
Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 4 2025 16:37 utc | 16
RE: interrogating the Duran Channel’s vid w/ Diesen, Mercouris & Mearsheimer
<< DJT has destroyed the ability of The Duran to produce compelling content-! /s

Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 4 2025 17:28 utc | 25

Posted by: Newbie | May 4 2025 16:00 utc | 10
Not even sure what you are talking about (let alone to agree/not).
1. I’m not sure what you are saying with the 1.500 day. I mean 4.3 hairbrushes. $2.7. 25,000 barrels of oil per day. Like…huh???
2. Yantarne? The only one I know, S of Dachne, is well within the red on DS. Is there another one? Damned Ukrops and their repetitive town names…grr…get off my lawn.
3. Pokrovsk circle breach. You’ll have to be more descriptive, as that is a very long front. If you are talking about the DRGs that got killed in south Pokrovsk, Wyatt was skeptical of drawing that as RFA control even on his optimistic RFA map (of the “two maps”). I think he said that AMK was mapping it but Rybar wasn’t. It didn’t meet his hurdle even for optimistic. FWIW, Skruffy mentioned it, in his most recent update. Not in the context, yet of drawing control…but of something to keep an eye on, that could signal an entry in the future. So, it’s not like people had not heard of it.
4. I don’t know what you are asserting wrt Kosti (at all). Maybe link to something (pick one).

Posted by: Anonymous | May 4 2025 17:43 utc | 26

I posted the following notice on the week in review but it needs to be posted here too.
A special 25th Anniversary documentary film, “Russia. Kremlin. Putin. 25 years,” was released by Rossiya 1 broadcaster. Key statements in the film were compiled and published by Sputnik, “Key Statements by Putin in the Documentary ‘Russia. The Kremlin. Putin. 25 Years'”. A Yandex search will provide many returns on this topic, some from the West are attempts to smear Putin are Howlers for their juvenile spin. The 1;38 video is available here but is only in Russian.

Posted by: karlof1 | May 4 2025 17:43 utc | 27

I’m not sure whether droning the Victory Parade would be counted as a terrorist threat or as military action. Feels like a terrorist threat to me but I can see arguments the other way being put forward. Best consider it under both headings, I suppose.
Coping with terrorist threats is something all countries are used to and Russia is no exception. Very much so in the case of the Ukrainian war. Kiev regularly commits acts of terror. From WAPO and the NYT we have irrefutable proof that those acts of terror are backed and facilitated by the West.
So the Russians will have to neutralise the source of the terrorist activity, one hopes without having to go all the way to the Polish border to do so; and as best they can prevent the West backing and facilitating more such attacks.
The line between terrorist activity and legitimate military action is not easy to draw. I regard the Kursk Bridge or a gathering of military personnel in Sumy as legitimate military targets. I regard the Twin Towers or a civilian market place in Gorlovka as illegitimate targets. Terrorist targets. Others draw the line differently but the fact that the boundary might be disputed doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist.
It’s a line, wherever you draw it, that we in the West cross regularly. We back and facilitate terrorist attacks as a matter of course. We did so in Syria using the Jihadis. We’re doing so in this case using the Ukrainian “Banderite” ultras.
We’re doing more of it now. Partly because the devil always finds work for idle hands to do: we have a well developed machinery for such work and that machinery staffed with great numbers of specialists. Partly, maybe, because we’re a bit desperate: half a millennium of undisputed Western domination is coming to an end and we’re scared the easy living will end with it. Probably will by the looks of things at least as far as we in Europe are concerned, though most of that is unnecessary and self-inflicted.
There’s another line we cross regularly. The distinction between covert and open war. Running the war and directing operations for Kiev, and providing personnel who fight alongside the Kiev forces, seems to qualify as covert war though, my view, that’s in truth open war. I doubt the Russians would get away with it if they were doing it to us but so far we get away with it doing it to them.
But providing weapons that can strike into Russian territory, and giving targeting and operating instructions for those weapons, is open war. Launching missiles against Russia from planes flown out of Poland or Romania is open war. We’re lucky that the Russians let us get away with that as well. Presumably they do so because they want to keep the escalation down a notch or so but I doubt they’ll be that forbearing indefinitely. It’s arguable that if the ever-cautious Putin hadn’t been in charge we’d have been seeing mushroom clouds long since.
And I’m not sure we’ll be seeing the cautious side of Putin that much more. Looks to me as if he’s given the US and Europe just about all the rope we’re going to get. I’d hoped that with the change of US President we’d be seeing an end to using terrorists or “look no hands” warfare to pursue our objectives. But Western policy remains much the same whoever is US President so swapping a dotard for a buffoon hasn’t affected matters much.
So in that overall context mounting attacks on the Victory Parade, however those attacks are categorised, doesn’t look to be a good move. Nor the rest of what we’re doing in the world. How many Americans feel that way too about these infantile and vicious antics? In the case of the other bit of craziness the West seems to be drifting towards, war with Iran, some definitely do. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene: “I represent the base and when I’m frustrated and upset over the direction of things, you better be clear, the base is not happy.
“I campaigned for no more foreign wars. And now we are supposedly on the verge of going to war with Iran.”

Risking open war with Russia. Risking war with Iran. And the European politicians as eager too. Who are these creepy losers, who have in their hands the future of the West?
…………………
Rep Greene quoted by Jimmy Walter on Larry Johnson’s site. The Gorlovka killings mentioned by Dr Rob Campbell.
https://sonar21.com/demoting-michael-waltz-will-trump-avoid-a-war-with-iran/
https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-and-world-affairs-weekly-f3b

Posted by: English Outsider | May 4 2025 17:44 utc | 28

Posted by: wagelaborer | May 4 2025 16:50 utc | 20
> Can someone please explain what 3LA is? I tried a search engine, but it was unhelpful.
Posted by: Mary | May 4 2025 16:58 utc | 22
> 3 Letter Agencies
Which are a subset of alphabet agencies.

Posted by: hopehely | May 4 2025 17:45 utc | 29

Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 4 2025 17:05 utc | 25
I agree wholeheartedly on that, s. porcupine — and my apologies for the double posts above- not something I intended; my computer had frozen up. I’ll be revisiting the link you provided as it was a fast-paced but fascinating review of the situation in Ukraine from an excellent guest.
He began with a description of the fortresslike aspect of Orthodox monasteries, which the Ukrainian forces were appropriating. Then he moved on to a description of the central fortified cities on the front line. Thanks to b we have a memory of the placement of those along the Dnieper from maps b provided in the past. So, this was a stellar interview for sure.
Alex in Cypres was somewhat negative on the Australia election, but I would hope Albanese a second time around with a lot of support from voters will feed on their energy. Aussies have that in spades when they play cricket,so hopefully they can join China in a more spirited way seeing that the latter is not fighting any wars and has win-win ideas on the trade front. I’d be cheering that on too, even though I’m not Australian born. (Just picking up on the Banjo Patterson aspect from yesterday’s down under conversations.)
But back to Ukraine – it’s all about the weapons industry in the west. How is it possible to bring that under control as Russia and China do? Giant corporations unregulated are giving capitalism a very bad name here.

Posted by: juliania | May 4 2025 17:48 utc | 30

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene: “I represent the base and when I’m frustrated and upset over the direction of things, you better be clear, the base is not happy.”

“the base” is irrelevant
On this matter there is full agreement between Joe Caligula Biden and Donald Likud Trump

Posted by: Simon | May 4 2025 17:50 utc | 31

UKR sources report situation is bad in the area of Konstantinovka, where RUAF Drones control all movement. Combined with earlier reports AFU counter-attacks coming out of Konstantinovka toward the southern RUAF advance were repelled, we might see RUAF getting a firm grip in south outskirts of Konstantinovka soon.
Posted by: unimperator | May 4 2025 17:03 utc | 24
That’s why i mentioned kromatorsk for summer in te previous thread
Konstantinovka will be encircled/hit b 3 to 4 directions soon (chasiv yar is the troubled 4th)
afterwards it’s a question if lyman will join from NE the encirclement from the south
The choice of breach at pokrovsk is wise, open terrain to the north and if expanded ne and nw will cut critical AFU lines… will need to hold though, it’s a case where AFU’ll probably throw everything and the kitchen sink

Posted by: Newbie | May 4 2025 18:03 utc | 32

Posted by: Simon | May 4 2025 17:50 utc | 32
………………………
Simon – that comment was from TTG’s site. I also submitted it to Andrei Martyanov’s site and “b’s” site because I believe the question could do with an answer. How many MAGA supporters are on board with a foreign policy quite at odds with the foreign policy Trump was elected on?
Because I do disagree with you, if I may, with the notion that the base doesn’t count. The midterms aren’t that far away and if those midterms go against Trump his programme of internal reform will be derailed. So the degree to which his foreign policy U-turn will affect his base will be important to Trump and his team. Any ideas on that?

Posted by: English Outsider | May 4 2025 18:12 utc | 33

Posted by: English Outsider | May 4 2025 17:44 utc | 29
RE: potential attacks on the Victory Parade
<< Terrorist attacks by the neo-Nazis of Kiev against Russia will be this war's long legacy. As Russia settled a similar dynamic in Chechnya, ultimately Russia will settle this matter. A terrorist attack on Moscow during the Victory Day celebrations will of course be appalling, but it won't move the needle on the SMO at all. Right now, the Russian Forces are mulching the LOC and managing admirably the war-faring actions relative to the SMO. That does not preclude new decisions about how to contend w/ Storm Shadow assauls on Crimea or drone-swarms into Russian apartment blocks. These latter attacks fall into the category of terroristic acts, to my mind, because they don't advance military objectives, creating instead a sidebar of peripheral violence that is only tangentially attached to the war. It is as if the terror attacks exist in a different strata from the war of military objectives. To be sure, a hot war creates a climate whereby all manner of peripheral violence/mayhem can arise---which would not have been overtly possible had the onset of the *hot war* not created the pretext. It's how a fetish about destroying the Kerch Bridge manifests. Destroying the Kerch Bridge may sell plenty of commemorative postage stamps in Kiev, but nothing about doing so will move the needle on the frontline, where the war strategy remains the war strategy. Sans a hot war, however, destroying the Kerch Bridge willy-nilly out of nowhere would be an act of war. My thought: the sidebar peripheral acts of terror would be, by themselves, taken individually, singular acts of war---but because they occur in the context of a long-standing hot war it is easy simply to categorize them as an unremarkable extension of the hot war. Anyway, English Outsider, I just want to laud your post for provoking thought.

Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 4 2025 18:13 utc | 34

🇺🇦💬🇷🇺 There may be provocations from the Russians on May 9, if anyone still believes them, they can go and try it all out for themselves. They want some kind of truce, but today there were the most assaults in recent months — Zelensky

he is projecting, and the eu will do the swallowing.

Posted by: Justpassinby | May 4 2025 18:13 utc | 35

Re: Terror Strike on 9.May parade ?
Very likely will be attempted

Posted by: Exile | May 4 2025 18:22 utc | 36

Why anyone would listen to Mercouris quote the gems he found in the Guardian and the Telegraph for an hour every day is beyond me.

Posted by: gce | May 4 2025 18:24 utc | 37

Your stupid lil 2-3 year spat, whereby all these nations, including China & So. Africa have been, in fact, aiding and supporting your dumb ass.
Posted by: Trubind1 | May 4 2025 16:42 utc | 17
He did say “essentially”, you take it too ad litteram. While it’s true that NK was the only one to (recently) provide some direct support (which was also for their own benefit as training against US) and China looks like it has been a good trade partner, you can’t argue with the fact that half the planet united against Russia, with essentially infinite money, but not even all Brics support Russia. SA still wants to arrest Putin, for example. Not applying random sanctions is a simple prerequisite of Brics, you can’t count that as aid.
Even so, with the exception of terrorist acts, which are more a problem of low quality security and secret services (blowing up cheap, personal non-armored cars, shooting in a mall or cluster bombing a beach with tourists is not complex terrorism, is severe incompetence in the RF general staff), Nato & friends suck on a galactic scale. And Russia has not applied any real sanctions yet or increased the smo strength, which these months is close to being stopped anyway.
I don’t know what was the suggested idea in the original language, but the translation doesn’t look to me like Putin is whining. It’s more like “you had enough time to pick sides until now”

Posted by: rk | May 4 2025 18:31 utc | 38

Posted by: juliania | May 4 2025 17:48 utc | 31
RE: election in Oz
<< Great post. Your comments about corporations & capitalism---"Giant corporations unregulated are giving capitalism a very bad name here"---pique my interest, and I want to share thoughts after a bit more cogitation. But on the subject of Albanese's re-election, I'll say that my son's work takes him to Oz quite a bit, and he reports a great zest & zeal among his mates, who impress him as on-fire w/ innovative impulses and determination---what I call "strive." Christoforou's remarks betrayed displeasure w/ an Albanese-redux, but even in the midst of a sour political scene, if that is indeed what it is, one can still find strong evidence of brio & resourcefulness among the populace. After my son's February trip we talked at length about Indonesia's proximity to Oz, for instance, and how the rise of Indonesia, the !-boom-!, is having a carryover concussive effect Down Under. Possibilities afoot.

Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 4 2025 18:36 utc | 39

Posted by: rk | May 4 2025 18:31 utc | 39
>>> …”half the planet united against Russia….”
=====
Maths is not your strongest subject, is it?

Posted by: pepe | May 4 2025 18:39 utc | 40

When you read this article, you’d understand why the West would always fail against Russia. The Russian leader Vladimir Putin is so different from any and all of the so-called leaders of the West. Being the President of the RF is a life long job, that you just can’t leave after 2 terms and forget about any responsibility, as in the US, for example. The responsibility is forever. None of the so-called Western leaders would ever fathom.

Posted by: ostrr | May 4 2025 18:43 utc | 41

SA still wants to arrest Putin, for example.
Posted by: rk | May 4 2025 18:31 utc | 39
#######
SA leadership has made it clear that it would never arrest Putin; that said, who cares what an international arrest warrant is in 2025?

Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 4 2025 18:46 utc | 42

Thank you, Mary and Hopehely, for clearing that up.
I think that any attack on the Victory parade is obviously a terrorist attack, especially during a ceasefire. How could killing civilians and public officials, especially from other countries, be spun as a military action?
I am sure that the Official Spin is already being prepared, though. But anyone with brains will be able to see through that. How many is that?
Sadly, we plebes have no way to monitor the gullibility of the masses, the way our overlords do. I have a bad feeling that their years of monitoring us have led them to supreme confidence in their ability to hoodwink the majority consistently.
Abe Lincoln had no way to monitor public opinion, so he had a higher view of the average person’s intelligence than today’s ruling overlords do.

Posted by: wagelaborer | May 4 2025 18:58 utc | 43

Posted by: Newbie | May 4 2025 18:03 utc | 33
Keep watching the K’s, some sectors are very quiet and the UAF’s are now probably more reliant on second tier Euro ISR, hence the Su-30 shoot down op, and all the media attention, to give the illusion of business as usual. If ISR is denuded then the Russian’s have some options previously denied them, as I said before, Western tier one ISR and logistic support have been far more important than the weapons given, it’s also where Russia are still struggling with legacy issues, especially the latter, factors which are tempo determinants.

Posted by: Milites | May 4 2025 20:24 utc | 44

Ukraine is capable of launching a drone drone from somewhere in Moscow to drop a grenade on the May 9 victory parade. But if this kills, say, the Chinese president – what then?

Posted by: Passerby | May 4 2025 20:24 utc | 45

@steel_porcupine | May 4 2025 18:13 utc | 35
“A terrorist attack on Moscow during the Victory Day celebrations will of course be appalling, but it won’t move the needle on the SMO at all.”
So here’s the thing that I find super fascinating. Up until now, we’ve had a plethora of red-lines crossed by Ukraine with none of the retaliatory fire and brimstone that was promised by the Russians. Multiple attacks on Kerch, various attacks on Moscow, Nordstream etc. And of course this has been seen as a significant sign of weakness by the west and only emboldened them to do more.
On the flip side, we’ve had a lot of “just you wait till X, then the Russians will really kick in!” – also, up until now, hasn’t happened. This leads me to a theory as to why, and a prediction.
Theory;
The reason we haven’t seen the promised retaliation is because Putin doesn’t want to pull that lever, at least not so far. Not saying it’s right or wrong, just the reality that each time it’s been a conscious decision not to escalate things (They have the means, but choose not to use them) Perhaps they feel that the existing scope and nature of the SMO is such that they’ll eventually win without requiring more drastic measures. Could be that they want to save the escalate button for a rainy day as once you do, it kicks things up a notch across the board for everyone. Could be a zillion reasons why. HOWEVER, on the flip side, each time Putin has chosen not to react, this has been taken as a sign of supreme weakness by the west, coming to the conclusion that Russia is either unwilling or unable to respond in kind. They therefore are quite happy to continue with similar and worse provocations with the understanding that this won’t really have any major consequences for them.
Fast forward to the may 9th parade. Prediction (possible)
What if the Ukraine crosses a real red line with their attacks? And by real, I mean something that removes Putin’s ability to say “no, not today” from the mix?
A public attack on the parade, especially causing civilian casualties could leave Putin with a stark choice- either declare war on Ukraine, or, step down/cede power (willingly or not) at some point, if it’s bad enough, the citizens of Russia will effectively make the decision for him.
A declaration of war would be the official end date of the SMO and day 1 in the history books of… something else. And not saying this is all 5D chess on the part of the Russians to get their casus belli in a manner and place of their choosing. That ship sailed a few years ago.
Regardless, an official declaration of war on the part of the RF would change the conflict considerably. Conscripts could and would be used in significant numbers on Ukrainian soil. Not that they would be used as frontline cannon fodder to storm positions, but they could free up a lot of otherwise experienced troops from holding ground, etc.
European nations would be in a real put up or shut up moment- they would have to choose as individuals whether they wanted to officially go to war with Russia, a very different proposition from the safe and cozy support from a distance they’ve gotten used to. And they couldn’t invoke article 5, or if they tried the alliance -would- dissolve.

Posted by: Clown Shoes | May 4 2025 20:37 utc | 46

Well, Xi is coming to Russia for 4 days – 7th to 11th May. So plenty of opportunity for Ukr/CIA/MI6.
I don’t think UKR will go mad. But you never can tell. After all, the whole thing will be live on Russian TV, they may think it amusing to send missiles to try and stop the parade.

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | May 4 2025 21:00 utc | 47

Well, Xi is coming to Russia for 4 days – 7th to 11th May. So plenty of opportunity for Ukr/CIA/MI6.
I don’t think UKR will go mad. But you never can tell. After all, the whole thing will be live on Russian TV, they may think it amusing to send missiles to try and stop the parade.

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | May 4 2025 21:00 utc | 48

Russia are still struggling with legacy issues, especially the latter, factors which are tempo determinants.
Posted by: Milites | May 4 2025 20:24 utc | 45
One thing I’d expect would be china supplying some thousands of transports. Current train based has clear limitations …

Posted by: Newbie | May 4 2025 21:03 utc | 49

Posted by: Newbie | May 4 2025 21:03 utc | 52
They could, but it wouldn’t solve the main problem, a failure to invest in advanced logistics technologies, that the West leveraged from the commercial sector, for nearly a century. Russian munitions are still often delivered in individual boxes, and unloaded by hand, with no access to palletised, universal loading systems which have halved logistics schedules.
The Russian logistics systems are well behind countries with comparative technologies and this deficiency has helped shape the conduct of the SMO, with its continued reliance on rail-based logistics and stockpiling to sustain combat operations, instead of units having any inherently organic capabilities themselves. The use of a CoFM approach goes some-way to mitigate this problem, but it can also be the cause, especially if expenditure exceeds the projected daily rate of units consumed.

Posted by: Milites | May 4 2025 22:34 utc | 50

Why does nobody here know anything about Carl Gustaf Emil Mannerheim? Compare and contrast Mannerheim to Zelensky. Why could Mannerheim give up land for 70 years of prosperity and peace and Zelensky can’t? Why did General Valery Zaluzhny imply that he’d have to do the same as Mannerheim?

Posted by: Contrarian_Ed | May 4 2025 22:38 utc | 51

The Kiev independent gleefully reports a Ukrainian home-made Wunderwaffe.
It claims air-to-air missiles from a Magura-7 drone launched from a ship has downed two Russian Su-30 fighters at §50m a pop.
James Rothwell at the UK Daily Telegraph and other presstitutes are frothing with delight.

Posted by: John Marks | May 4 2025 22:43 utc | 52

Read below how Reuters is trying to control the narrative
Zelenskiy says ceasefire with Russia could be put in place at any moment

Volodymyr Zelenskiy, speaking at a news conference in Prague alongside Czech President Petr Pavel, said that unless increased pressure were applied, Vladimir Putin would take no real steps to end the conflict.

When does the unconditional surrender come?

Posted by: psychohistorian | May 4 2025 22:49 utc | 53

@ Mark2 | May 4 2025 14:35 utc | 1
I dunno, you seem a bit paranoid bro. I don’t believe Mr Gruff does sockpuppet psyops like you say.

Posted by: Featherless | May 4 2025 23:03 utc | 54

They could, but it wouldn’t solve the main problem, a failure to invest in advanced logistics technologies…
Posted by: Milites | May 4 2025 22:34 utc | 54

If the question is “lots of ammo but hard to move” vs. “little ammo but easy to move” the choice is still clear. Russia can fix their logistics but the West will never fix their weapons production.

Posted by: TJandTheBear | May 4 2025 23:40 utc | 55

Read below how Reuters is trying to control the narrative
Posted by: psychohistorian | May 4 2025 22:49 utc | 57

Narrative is all they have left.

Posted by: TJandTheBear | May 4 2025 23:49 utc | 56

The US thought they will simply stop the conflict when they decide to do so. Did they really think Putin will simply accept anything after losing so much in this conflict. The west are responsible for the destruction of hundreds of billions of dollars in Russian equipment, the death of tens of thousands of Russians and so much more and they thought Russia will just stop whenever they ask Russia to stop? Wtf was the thought process here? Why are they surprised Russia will not negotiate for anything less than what they demand?

Posted by: brutal wizerd | May 5 2025 0:10 utc | 57

Posted by: TJandTheBear | May 4 2025 23:40 utc | 60
Trouble is the speed of moving your logistics has a direct impact on your operational tempo. Russia has made little progress since WW2, in this regard, partly due to the CW’s unique circumstances, partly due to its late arrival to modern commercial logistical requirements.
The West does not need to match the Russians munition for munition, given the qualitative differences, but they need to certainly address the cutbacks that successive progressive governments have carried out in stockpiles, to conceal the erosion of defence capabilities, and budgets.

Posted by: Milites | May 5 2025 0:16 utc | 58

Yesterday Zelensky crowed that he “can’t guarrantee” President Xi will be safe from Ukrainian strikes during the upcoming Victory Day celebrations in Moscow.
Today Putin said that he “hopes” he won’t need to use nuclear weapons to end the war.
I love it when Putin shoves NATO/Ukraine arrogance right back in their faces

Posted by: GW | May 5 2025 0:19 utc | 59

For Mark2 who has an interest in Australian viewpoints:
I have linked a website here with some excellent analysis after the massive win for Labor and independents in Australia in the weekend. I think the conservative Tory-like (but dumber and more destructive) Liberal party are destined for the wilderness for a long time and independents in both the house of Representatives and Senate will keep Labor further in check. My view is that the atrocious John Howard – Thatcherite and all the way with the USA era – is over. It is a watershed moment and good news for Australia. Fingers crossed. 🤞
The Liberal leader made a huge mistake in adopting many of the Trump-like policies pretending they were his, and tried to use more venal sections of the main stream media to invoke more fear of China and ridiculous claims about Russia building an airbase in Indonesia – as if Russia on the other side of the world is an enemy. I expect a re-alignment with Asia now since Australians have got the message about how the US treats its friends worse than its enemies and Australians cannot stand Trump, his egotism, bullying and belligerence.
https://johnmenadue.com

Posted by: George | May 5 2025 0:24 utc | 60

Spending so much time and effort celebrating tactical successes is itself an indicator that things are not looking good for Ukraine.

Posted by: Milites | May 5 2025 0:24 utc | 61

Russia’s not winning. They’ve taken massive losses and pains to get very little in return.
Ukraine is being hit hard all of the time, but still managing to grow their platforms, munitions and continue to prove successful regardless Russia’s assaults. I’m sure that there is a significant effect on morale, but many Ukrainians are fighting harder because of it, too.
The massively successful strikes on all of Russia’s various oil depots and refineries and ammo stockpiles is having a profound effect on what ultimate success looks like for Russia.
Not to mention, Trump has finally gotten his “win” from Ukraine and is now willing to allow Zelensky to buy weapons again from the US.
Everyone would be better off if Russia pulls a GW Bush, flies a “Mission Successful” banner from their forever docker aircraft carrier and withdraws forces from Ukraine.

Posted by: pheonix | May 5 2025 0:27 utc | 62

The West does not need to match the Russians munition for munition, given the qualitative differences…
Posted by: Milites | May 5 2025 0:16 utc | 63

You’re kidding, right? If there are any qualitative differences whatsoever they’ve proven themselves irrelevant.

Posted by: TJandTheBear | May 5 2025 0:33 utc | 63

Russia’s not winning. They’ve taken massive losses and pains to get very little in return.
Posted by: pheonix | May 5 2025 0:27 utc | 67
Russia’s not winning? How do you make that out, Mr Phoenix? Are you saying Ukraine IS winning? Come on! Tell us how Ukraine is “winning”?

Posted by: HERMIUS | May 5 2025 0:34 utc | 64

The west is not going to allow defeat. They are enjoying the fruits of Russia bleeding all of its hardware and men to death. The slow attrition is the best deal ever for the west.

Posted by: njordic | May 5 2025 0:35 utc | 65

Posted by: pheonix | May 5 2025 0:27 utc | 67
Dude lay off the crack pipe.

Posted by: Badjoke | May 5 2025 0:37 utc | 66

Posted by: pheonix | May 5 2025 0:27 utc | 67
It aint about winning. Its about protecting russians in east ukraine and crimea from the kiev nazis. Russia has largely managed to do that. When Zaparozhia and Kherson are liberated fully, the job will be done. Then Riussia has “won”.

Posted by: Ted from Liverpool | May 5 2025 0:39 utc | 67

Everyone would be better off if Russia pulls a GW Bush, flies a “Mission Successful” banner from their forever docker aircraft carrier and withdraws forces from Ukraine.
Posted by: pheonix | May 5 2025 0:27 utc | 67

Yes, but… Russia’s definitely winning. The rest of your statements are all pure NAFO propaganda with no basis in reality.

Posted by: TJandTheBear | May 5 2025 0:39 utc | 68

When Zaparozhia and Kherson are liberated fully, the job will be done. Then Russia has “won”.
Posted by: Ted from Liverpool | May 5 2025 0:39 utc | 73

It would’ve been, but given the West intransigence Russia will have no choice but to go much, much further. The proliferation of these drone speedboats (along with the Transnistria problem) pretty much ensure Odessa’s fate.

Posted by: TJandTheBear | May 5 2025 0:43 utc | 69

The west is not going to allow defeat. They are enjoying the fruits of Russia bleeding all of its hardware and men to death. The slow attrition is the best deal ever for the west.
Posted by: njordic | May 5 2025 0:35 utc | 71
Mr Nobdick, the west is not “enjoying” the FACT that their Ukraine project has failed. Theyve lost Crimea on the Black sea, lost east Ukraine. Their project has completely FAILED. Russia is now more united than ever behind Mr Putin. Russia has formed a major alliance with China. Sanctions on Russia, which the west thought so effective, have actually had the opposite effect and galvanised the russian economy. So STOP TALKIN BOLLOX!

Posted by: HERMIUS | May 5 2025 0:47 utc | 70

The West has been brain draining Russia by offering a better lifestyle. Europe can afford this lifestyle by underspending on security . This war has meant money shifting from the welfare state to the security state. Coupled with high energy prices EU is no longer as attractive for Russians to emigrate to. The longer this war goes on and the more the EU militarizes the better the long term prospects for Russian development.

Posted by: Autobot | May 5 2025 0:53 utc | 71

Contrarian_Ed | May 4 2025 22:38 utc | 55
…Why does nobody here know anything about Carl Gustaf Emil Mannerheim?
Nobody? I’d guess there’d be one, maybe 5, barflies who could write an erudite 5000-word essay this afternoon from memory and be 85% accurate.
Me. I’m a product of an Australian tuition system.
We weren’t educated about our own military history. Forget nonsense about the krauts. (Ok, I looked, he’s Finnish, … as if we’d care, down here)
And what we are told of Australian history is 85% bullshit, and runs cover for the truth…..
There’s a reason war time cabinet papers were sealed for 75 years.
PeterAu was good for a discussion on what we learned once sealed papers were released, versus what we’d been told , say, about the Fall of Singapore (where my father was captured, and as a POW in Thailand, was slave-labor for the Burma-Thai Railway).
What the Brits knew 1938-1941 is enough to have had my dad take his old rabbit shooting .22 and secure some justice for his mates who died by bullets, berri-berri, cholera, typhoid and malaria. And starvation. Mostly starvation.
My uncle, his brother who was a North Africa Trubruk Rat, and on the Kokoda Track in New Guinea, would probably have joined him. But he died not long after the war, due to inadequate treatment for complications from malaria.
——
And another point. As for WW2 history …. What is accurate and what is fiction and what is something in between.
Right here, at this humble blog, virtual bar, there are people unable/ unwilling to look / understand original source documents.
We can, from the comfort of our barstools, and with a few keystrokes, find original Putin statements about the sloSMO; we can see Victoria cookies Nuland boasting they spent $5billion on the Ukrainian color revolution. We have access to daily battle reports, and yet there are ignoramuses who arrive here still echoing controlled media narratives about what is happening in:- Ukraine, Palestine, Iran, Pakistan, China…. Chagos.
——
“We” probably should know more about Mannerheim. But I’ll settle for people knowing accurately about what is happening right around them right now.
> I yield my time on the soapbox.

Posted by: Melaleuca | May 5 2025 0:54 utc | 72

Everyone would be better off if Russia pulls a GW Bush, flies a “Mission Successful” banner from their forever docker aircraft carrier and withdraws forces from Ukraine.
Posted by: pheonix | May 5 2025 0:27 utc | 67

It aint about winning. Its about protecting russians in east ukraine and crimea from the kiev nazis. Russia has largely managed to do that. When Zaparozhia and Kherson are liberated fully, the job will be done. Then Riussia has “won”.
Posted by: Ted from Liverpool | May 5 2025 0:39 utc | 73
######
Both of you ignore what Russia is fighting for (probably because you’re both trolls), which they have only told the world unambiguously 30x since the start of the SMO.
Demilitarization, neutrality, no NATO, de-Nazification.
It’s got NOTHING to do with territory or declaring victory.
The 4 Oblasts are Russian now. Constitutionally. Like Crimea, the only way to get that territory back would be to destroy the Russian state.
I see Milites is hitting the jingoistic crack pipe again.
NATO is no match for Russia, like America is not a match for Yemen.
Western supremacy given 3 years of nearly non-stop ass beatings in UKraine, and several months of embarrassment in the Red Sea is a sign of mental retardation. Losers jerking off to 80s-era movie soundtracks.
The West is done.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 5 2025 0:55 utc | 73

Featherless @58
Spectator @59
Correct. I do not post on Unz Review. Someone with my screen name also posts on Bitchute. Unlike some other posters, I do not get butthurt over posters being “mean” to me, and I don’t whine about trolls taking my name in vain. The more intelligent readers here can tell the difference, and that is all that is important to me.

Posted by: William Gruff | May 5 2025 0:56 utc | 74

The west is not going to allow defeat. They are enjoying the fruits of Russia bleeding all of its hardware and men to death. The slow attrition is the best deal ever for the west.
Posted by: njordic | May 5 2025 0:35 utc | 71
#######
The West is done. It doesn’t have a choice. Ansar Allah is imposing defeat on the Americans every time they have to (regularly) withdraw an aircraft carrier from the region.
When you can’t beat one of the poorest countries in the world with a multi-billion-dollar war machine, you’re a paper tiger. You’re a joke. And now everyone in the world knows thanks to the internet.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 5 2025 1:00 utc | 75

‘pheonix’ is just another gaslighter who works for the laughing gas company and we can add ‘njordic’ to the list as well. They both expect intelligent people to believe that night is day and have no evidence to back even a nano-whimper of their claims. Russian successes are far too obvious now.
I wonder if they are not associated with Ukrainian propaganda, Zelensky et al have always done the same. Maybe they are friends of William or given ‘pheonix’ cannot even spell his name correctly he may very well be rusted on Trump religion supporter.

Posted by: George | May 5 2025 1:10 utc | 76

The west is not going to allow defeat. They are enjoying the fruits of Russia bleeding all of its hardware and men to death. The slow attrition is the best deal ever for the west.
Posted by: njordic | May 5 2025 0:35 utc | 71

LMAO, the West doesn’t have any say in the matter, and it’s NATO that’s been hemorraghing badly throughout.
https://www.voanews.com/a/us-air-force-general-russia-military-larger-better-than-before-ukraine-invasion/7788601.html
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/defence/article/europe-uk-peacekeeping-troops-ukraine-6tp2cfgg5
Europe ‘would struggle to put 25,000 troops on the ground in Ukraine’

Posted by: TJandTheBear | May 5 2025 1:26 utc | 77

Ted from Liverpool | May 5 2025 0:39 utc | 73
*** It aint about winning. Its about protecting russians in east ukraine and crimea from the kiev nazis. Russia has largely managed to do that. When Zaparozhia and Kherson are liberated fully, the job will be done. Then Riussia has “won”. ***
No, because they will still be under threat and attack from West Ukraine — in which there will be (officially or not) NATO missile silos and troops (officially or not) to supplement the Galician forces.
Plus terrorism…
All that would really stop the whole thing by now is a sudden Russian attack of such total devastation and viciousness against Galicia that the NATO countries, ridiculously indulged till then, would finally chicken out.
And if that appeared to fail, time to end it all for keeps — thoroughly nuke the West’s major cities, major bases and Oligarch hideouts, of course including those in the USA and Israel. Now that WW3 seems pretty certain to happen anyway, why let the enemy pick the time and thereby increase its own chances of semi-survival.

Posted by: Cynic | May 5 2025 1:29 utc | 78

“Ukraine is being hit hard all of the time”
Posted by: pheonix | May 5 2025 0:27 utc | 67
Ukraine is slowly being demolished. This is the fault of the west. They started this conflict. They could have easily implemented the Minsk agreements, but they failed. They could have responded to Putins appeal for security agreeemnts for Russia in 2021. This war is the fault of the west.

Posted by: Fyador | May 5 2025 1:31 utc | 79

George @ 65
Thanks for that link have book marked it and will read in the morning. I agree with your comments.
Debesisdead i think has a correct view on the Aus election.
I think alot of the old empire countrys see the ukraine war as a cynical way of giveing ther armys live fire training. And the US and Uk are encoaraging that. All be it not so much front line at the momment. Who knows in the future.
I think the above then gets used to create the optics of a united western alliance against Russia.
Militarys are a world unto themselves they need to justify their exsistence.
Sad but true.
Respect.

Posted by: Mark2 | May 5 2025 1:37 utc | 80

HERMIUS | May 5 2025 0:47 utc | 76
*** Russia is now more united than ever behind Mr Putin.***
A pity, since the reality is that Putin and his Establishment (including Oligarchs) are far too liberal, neoliberal, zionist and Atlanticist to themselves be anything other than a long-term threat to the safety — even the eventual existence — of Russia.

Posted by: Cynic | May 5 2025 1:38 utc | 81

As far as I recollect, Russia has still not officially shifted from its SPECIAL MILITARY OPERATION or SMO.
What is going on is still of a ‘lite’ form with special controls over the forces being used. Although Ukrainian civilians have been killed, Russia has still not officially shifted to full War footing, and if they do, Ukraine would be decimated fairly quickly – it is no match, especially now. Kiev would be smashed to pieces irrespective of civilian casualties to start with. Russians have been very careful to avoid Ukrainian civilian casualties to this point in time and are still there to help those in formally (and ongoing) targeted areas of the Donbass region and other sections of Ukraine where there is pro-Russian dominance among its people. This is a far cry from the terrorism and deliberate targeting of civilians displayed by Zelensky and Ukraine.

Posted by: George | May 5 2025 1:51 utc | 82

The west is not going to allow defeat. They are enjoying the fruits of Russia bleeding all of its hardware and men to death. The slow attrition is the best deal ever for the west.
Posted by: njordic | May 5 2025 0:35 utc | 71

LMAO, the West doesn’t have any say in the matter, and it’s NATO that’s been hemorraghing badly throughout.
https://www.voanews.com/a/us-air-force-general-russia-military-larger-better-than-before-ukraine-invasion/7788601.html
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/defence/article/europe-uk-peacekeeping-troops-ukraine-6tp2cfgg5
Europe ‘would struggle to put 25,000 troops on the ground in Ukraine’

Posted by: TJandTheBear | May 5 2025 1:53 utc | 83

Posted by: Mark2 | May 5 2025 1:37 utc | 87
“Debesisdead i think has a correct view on the Aus election.”
I agree.
Due to its British background, WWI (especially Gallipoli and Northern France), help with supressing Maoris in New Zealand, the shocking Boer Wars, the Boxer Uprising in China, and WWII in Europe etc., Australia has a long history of rather mindlessly going far away overseas to help imperialist/colonialist nations achieve their greedy and violent aims. Australia also suppressed and killed large swathes of its own indigenous population, so it agreed in principal with British imperialism. That was later shifted to aiding the USA in WWII in the Pacific, Korea, Indonesia, Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq, and now even Ukraine with military equipment and financial aid. Australians really need to understand their true war history, its distortions have become the tool of many politicians eager to push phony nationalism and patriotism for political gain. Much of the media has been supportive in glorifying this kind of nonsense.

Posted by: George | May 5 2025 2:10 utc | 84

Here in the UK the far right party (reform) have a big succses in the local elections on friday.
I did’nt vote. It was between the right, far right and extreme far right partys oh and liberals.
This will slew the uk to an even more warmongering and racist position. Expect a cival war.
Also expect the reform knuckle heads to very soon be conscripted in to the army to die a pointless death in a ukraineian muddy trench.
Thus reduceing the working class numbers who now become surplus due to AI.
Good night all.

Posted by: Mark2 | May 5 2025 2:13 utc | 85

posted by: juliania | May 4 2025 17:48 utc | 31
RE: election in Oz
<< But on the subject of Albanese's re-election, I'll say that my son's work takes him to Oz quite a bit, and he reports a great zest & zeal among his mates, who impress him as on-fire w/ innovative impulses and determination---what I call "strive." Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 4 2025 18:36 utc | 40 I live in Australia, Albanese with his predecessor is one of our worst PMs, under his direct policies housing and rents have increased dramatically, the cost of electricity has increased, the cost of living has increased, the bureaucracy is swelling and being paid ever higher wages. The aboriginal industry is thriving, and any inquiry is banned, as aboriginal corporations run by those often 1% Aboriginal divert funds from the poor areas into their own pockets, in the poor communities pedophilia and rape are out of control, but don't dare talk about it. Albanese got elected against a Uniparty opponent completely lacking in either personality or policies. The media is 70% Woke and 30% Israeli. He also used the usual lies to create a fear campaign, the decent independents mostly got wiped out. In the regional towns youth crime is rampant, being assaults, car theft and break ins, murders though like in the US are still currently low. Don't ask their ethnicity. Foreign multinationals come in and destroy local businesses, and yet the majority pay little to zero tax. The energy and mineral wealth is being extracted with minimal royalties by local billionaires and foreign multinationals. Australia was renowned as one of the most authoritarian states in the world during covid, this is not an exaggeration, the country went full Stasi with beatings, imprisonment, citizens refused to come home, plus rampant corruption. Transgender adulation is almost compulsory, Albanese marched in the Gay Mardi Gras. My brother is gay and I worked in a gay industry for decades, I am not homophobic. My brother agrees the gay "activists" are being used and then will be dumped when no longer useful. DEI is thriving in proportion to the decline into idiocracy. We have an eSafety commissioner, a US import, that is ramping up censorship. The insane immigration is beyond the capacity of infrastructure to keep up, Australia lacks water but new dams or water transference from abundant to drought areas is banned. It isn't a left or right issue, both sides have useful policies, it is corrupt politicians emulating all the worst of both the EU and US, and none of their better aspects. Much seems WEF policy. The lists just go on, Australia is going down the toilet. Finally as much as new immigrants are arriving, many Australians are looking for places to escape.

Posted by: Organic | May 5 2025 3:11 utc | 86

The chatteratti and a few commentators are in high dudgeon over the fact that Sir Keir has invited an AFU group to march on 8 May, VE Day, w/ UK troops and other hero regiments during London’s Victory in Europe parade. The complaint centers on the fact that the UK is ignoring Russia’s contributions to the defeat of Nazis in Europe by a-historically inflating Ukraine’s singular *heroics* on 8 May 1945 as a means of diminishing Russia’s.
Revisions to history aside, it struck me that DJT, who is planning a splashy military parade on 14 June could conceivably invite an AFU group to march on that day too. Would it be an abomination-? Would it be an outrage-?
Traditionally known as Flag Day in the U.S., 14 June is also DJT’s birthday, so in ordering a military parade DJT is shining a little light on an often unsung & ignored U.S. holiday while throwing the biggest birthday bash on earth for himself.
That’s of course not the abomination. That’s not the outrage.
Incorporating Ukraine’s military into an American display of patriotism would be a peculiar stretch. It would seem like an odd non sequitur, something that doesn’t fit in the sequence of patriotic expressions.
Since Sec Rubio told podcaster Megyn Kelly back in February that the U.S. is in a proxy war with Russia, politicians and media reps and citizens have had to adjust to the fact that, as Rubio’s words convey, the U.S. is using Ukraine to fight Russia in place of the U.S. directly fighting Russia.
This revelation allowed a little truth to seep out, naturally. Until that moment no public official of Rubio’s pay-grade had stated as much so openly.
That, coupled w/ the fact that the AFU will march in London’s VE Day parade, drove home dramatically for me the degree to which civil & political society in the West is undergoing a Ukrainization.
In light of the role Ukraine has played in fighting Russia *on behalf of* the U.S.—sending its troops to die while U.S. troops remain out of harm’s way—Ukraine may always occupy a privileged position in U.S. public life. It may always have an uncommon stature.
If the public acknowledgement of our proxy paves the way for the public *embrace* of our proxy and the mainstreaming of the proxy’s lore and the proxy’s history into *our* interpretation of history, then someday we may end up believing that Betsy Ross was actually a Kievan princess and that as she sat down to sew Old Glory she really intended the colors to be blue & yellow, not red, white & blue.

Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 5 2025 3:19 utc | 87

Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 5 2025 3:19 utc | 104
RE: flags
<< Even the Gadsden---Don't Tread On Me---is only one color away from Ukrainization.

Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 5 2025 3:29 utc | 88

“housing and rents have increased dramatically, the cost of electricity has increased, the cost of living has increased, the bureaucracy is swelling and being paid ever higher wages.”
Organic | May 5 2025 3:11 utc | 102
1. Housing values have increased because every Australian wants to sell his or her house for far more than they paid for it. Before they bought a house they whinged about the prices as they wanted something cheap. The amazing thing about Australians is if they buy a house, and many do, then they switch sides instantly. Real estate agents love pushing up prices too.
2. Rental prices have risen because of negative gearing, Ask Peter Dutton he owns many houses, I think Albanese does too. Neither have have had the guts to get rid of it.
3. Prices like electricity and the cost of living throughout history always go up.
4. Bureaucracies increase due to population increase, especially in Australia where immigration is welcomed by all governments as a way to prop up the GDP- Everybody’s wages increase too including that of tradies who also help to raise the cost of housing and rentals. No politician ever criticises them because they are a large slice of the voting public.

Posted by: George | May 5 2025 3:58 utc | 89

Mark2
I share your frustration with UK’s choice of leaders. Starmer has proved to be a stooge and disaster who immediately forgot the people he claimed to represent – as many predicted – and the Tories were a disgrace before he was elected as ever.
I know it is going back a long way but England never had the revolution the French had and the people were broken way back in the days of the Peterloo Massacre when the ruling classes had formed plans to destroy their initiatives. There is a lot of effort always to exalt the Royalty and upper classes and suck in many of the poorest into the illusion of how great they are and keep them waving flags. It’s one of the only Royal edifices of its kind left in the western world. We saw that even here with the Queen’s death that went on for weeks in the media, and it is why we have never been able to form a republic. A lot of Australians get sucked in as well and the MS media pushes it big time. Orwell explained the phenomenon of the weakness of the working classes in “The Road to Wigan Pier”, and the way the proletariat classes were not even a concern to Big Brother in “1984”.

Posted by: George | May 5 2025 4:37 utc | 90

Below is a link to the Putin interview that contains the nuke threat response to Z
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OwuAXpHZQ3U
Putin talks about praying at the end of the interview for another crisis and we get to see his private chapel.

Posted by: psychohistorian | May 5 2025 5:18 utc | 91

@ steel_porcupine (104)
You are missing the point entirely. The “AFU” contingent invited to march in London on 8 May are the direct military and political descendants of the traitorous minority of Ukrainians who fought for Hitler. THAT is the bloody outrage. Left out of the parade are the representatives of the six million Ukrainians who served in the Red Army, and who should be lauded today as out gallant allies, as indeed they were. What is going on in the West is not “Ukrainization”, it is Nazification, as Ukraine itself has been Nazified.

Posted by: Bernard Davis | May 5 2025 5:19 utc | 92

“I wouldn’t worry about John McCain, he has been utterly unsighted during the Russian SMO in Ukraine.”
Posted by: Julian | May 5 2025 4:53 utc | 115
I think he is referring to the neocons who seem to feature in every US government whether elected or purposefully selected for the administration. Nuland and Blinken featuring in the last government. Powerful and fundamental to the situation in Ukraine, Nuland having been clearly behind the Maidan coup. Cain was a well known neocon and they also previously featured as far back as Bush’s war party for Iraq and Afghanistan. They were in Trump’s last government and back again now, Rubio being way up there.

Posted by: George | May 5 2025 5:25 utc | 93

The Summit in the Sand…
https://x.com/bears_with/status/1918922467940131183
“Breaking – Putin to meet Trump in UAE May 15-16 for feel-good summit.”

Posted by: JohnGilberts | May 5 2025 6:38 utc | 94

Russia UKraine war: US OKs F-16 Deal Days After Trump-Zelensky Vatican Meet | Times Now World | May 5
§|~”The U.S. has approved a deal to supply F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, marking a major escalation in military support just days after Presidents Trump and Zelenskyy held a strategic meeting at the Vatican.
In Kyiv, Zelenskyy revealed details of the discussion, describing it as their most substantial yet — touching on sanctions, a 30-day ceasefire, and deeper US- Ukraine cooperation.
The two leaders also greenlit a new minerals agreement set to channel billions into Ukraine’s reconstruction. As tensions mount ahead of Russia’s Victory Day, with global leaders attending Moscow events, Zelenskyy warned he couldn’t guarantee their safety.
Meanwhile, Russia’s Medvedev issued stark threats, even as the U.S. solidifies its backing for Kyiv. With F-16s on the way and diplomatic momentum growing, the Vatican meeting could mark a turning point — toward either peace or a more entrenched war.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y3nc3_CTsUM
____
F-16s now on the Ukie “minerals” deal Trust account tab.
Wonder what $$$ Trump is going to appraise the old F-16s.
And “training” for Ukie pilots is going on the tab also.
Ukraine is going to find fighting Russia for the U$ very expensive now it’s signed that whatever-it-is “deal”.

Posted by: Melaleuca | May 5 2025 7:03 utc | 95

Posted by: Autobot | May 5 2025 0:53 utc | 72
You make a solid point.
In addition to Europe and Russia equalizing their offer of what you call lifestyles due to Europe going into a defense spending binge and Russia developing fast and rising salaries, thus reducing the appeal of Europe to well-educated Russians, Europe going into a defense spending binge will cause political mini-revolutions because European populace feel they are entitled to more and more benefits from the welfare state and will seriously resent any cut in benefits.
This political mini-revolutions will severely deteriorate the support for far-center parties (already set in motion) and will also be favorable to Russia.
Ultimately this is a social manifestation of a well-known phenomenon in economic and natural systems called over-compensation.

Posted by: Johan Kaspar | May 5 2025 7:24 utc | 96

Posted by: Melaleuca | May 5 2025 7:03 utc | 97
I think this F-16 stuff is just keeping Trump and Zelensky in the news for their punters. As you would know the last F-16s that were talked about for months/years including the lengthy and complicated pilot training resulted in virtually no advantage to Ukraine. They are no match for Russian pilots, Russian fighter jets, and Russian intelligence that wiped many others on airfields with missiles before they even got off the ground. More wadding to look like something is being done and another demonstration that Trump (God’s new Pope) doesn’t know what side he is on, or what he is really doing.

Posted by: George | May 5 2025 7:27 utc | 97

Posted by: Ted from Liverpool | May 5 2025 0:39 utc | 68
When Zaparozhia and Kherson are liberated fully, the job will be done. Then Riussia has “won”.

The full conquest of Zaparozhia and Kherson will certainly mark the end of the first phase of the Russo-Ukrainian war with an indisputable Russian victory. But my guess is at that point the SMO will turn into a classic war, with a formal declaration of war of Russia against the Ukraines.
I don’t see any other stable solution, both for NATO and for Russia, other than the destruction of the Ukrainian state and either (1) its replacement by something new and much smaller and harmless, or (2) its dismemberment and re-distribution among contiguous states.

Posted by: Johan Kaspar | May 5 2025 7:36 utc | 98

Posted by: Milites | May 5 2025 0:16 utc | 59
The West does not need to match the Russians munition for munition, […]

I’m pretty sure the Russian will applaud you for giving that advice 😜

Posted by: Johan Kaspar | May 5 2025 7:44 utc | 99

Posted by: TJandTheBear | May 5 2025 0:33 utc | 64
No they haven’t, it’s why Russian artillery consumption is/was so high because their doctrine was designed to compensate for any accuracy shortfalls, a situation made worse by the use of CW era ammunition stockpiles, where both propellants and warheads suffered during storage. The big problem is that whilst the Ukrainians had more accurate systems, especially artillery, they were asked to perform outside of doctrine (only two legs of the combined arms triad available) and suffered attrition off their skilled crews.
Being able to support, fight and operationally sustain a chosen doctrine is what decides a victor in war, not the individual systems and rarely their individual tactical victories. Leftist posters here tend to be absolutists, their chosen side must be as good if not better than their opponents, because it’s another layer of their fragile belief system. Ironically that’s exactly the opposite way that the Russian system, who will unhesitatingly copy more effective designs, works. Go and watch the unofficial videos of Russian troops in Western vehicles and their initial reactions to the levels of equipment and ergonomic layouts (now cloned in the BMP upgrades) or the comments about the power packs, transmissions and ease of operation. Or ponder why the latest Russian artillery systems clone the design features of existing Western models, or why the Ukrainians can still field a decent number of Western model AFV’s this fat into the conflict.
The disparity between infantry equipment is even more striking, given the Russian’s traditional indifference to infantry, but once again superior personal equipment only helps to secure victory if it supports and compliments doctrine, as many militaries have found out to late, to their cost.

Posted by: Milites | May 5 2025 8:17 utc | 100