Ukraine Negotiations Still Hover Around Its Root Cause

May 20, 2025

The most important sentence from President Trump about yesterday's phone call between President Putin and him is this:

Russia and Ukraine will immediately start negotiations toward a Ceasefire and, more importantly, an END to the War. The conditions for that will be negotiated between the two parties, as it can only be, because they know details of a negotiation that nobody else would be aware of.

The most important sentence by President Putin about yesterday's phone call is this:

Notably, Russia’s position is clear. Eliminating the root causes of this crisis is what matters most to us.

Russia will not fall for ending the war without having achieved its main goal.

Western media, here the NY Times, continue to play dumb (archived) about what the Russia's main goal is:

[Putin] repeated his mantra that a peace deal needs to “remove the root causes of this crisis,” referring to Russia’s pursuit of wide-ranging influence over Ukraine.

David Ignatius, a CIA spokesperson at the Washington Post, makes a similar (archived) nonsensical claim:

He still wants victory, which he described once again after Monday’s call with the phrase “eliminate the root causes of the crisis.” That’s code for his conviction that Ukraine cannot be a European country, as it wants, but must remain under Russian hegemony.

Russia as well as Ukraine are European countries. Russia has no interest in having 'hegemony' or 'wide-ranking influence' over Ukraine. Its interest is the defense of the Russian Federation. It had to prevent Ukraine from becoming a U.S. (NATO) spear tip aimed at its heart.

A different NY Times piece about the Russian northern defenses build up after Finland joined NATO is far more correct when it states (archived):

From Moscow’s perspective, the Russians need to bolster their defenses to protect themselves from NATO expansion, which has always been a sore subject. The Baltic nations were the first members of the former Soviet Union to join NATO, bringing large stretches of Russia’s border up against NATO’s. The prospect of Ukraine, an even bigger former Soviet republic, following suit was so threatening to Moscow that it became one of the causes of the most devastating land war in generations.

It is NATO expansion, not Ukraine the country, that is the root cause of the war. It is NATO expansion that has to be eliminated.

The U.S. and its European allies are still in denial of that. To ignore that the U.S. has, for over 30 years, been driving the NATO expansion that led to the war, allows Trump to play a 'mediator' in war in which the U.S. is a dominant participant.

It is stupid for western media to accept Trump's claim (archived) of such a role:

After phone calls with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Trump posted that “Russia and Ukraine will immediately start negotiations toward a Ceasefire and, more importantly, an END to the War”.
…
In remarks that indicated that Washington may be stepping back from a role as a mediator, Trump said the “conditions” for a deal could only be agreed by the warring parties “because they know details of a negotiation that nobody else would be aware of”.
…
Trump also said that immediately after his call with Putin, he recounted the conversation to Zelenskyy together with the leaders of Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Finland and the European Commission. ⁽¹⁾
…
But two people briefed on the call with the European leaders said Trump was clear that he would pull the US back from engaging with the conflict and leave Ukraine and Russia to directly negotiate a ceasefire. He also made no promise of future US sanctions against Russia should Putin refuse any peace attempts. One person familiar with the conversation said the leaders were stunned by the US president’s description of what was agreed. They added it was clear Trump was “not ready to put greater pressure” on Putin to come to the negotiating table in earnest.

Trump is pretending to wash his hands (archived) over Ukraine:

The US desire to disengage has been flagged for weeks, by Trump himself but also by secretary of state Marco Rubio and vice-president JD Vance, who have repeatedly expressed frustration with Russia and Ukraine in equal measure. Vance told reporters on Monday that the US might ultimately have to say: “This is not our war.”

The U.S. can not be a mediator in a war, or wash its hands over it, when it continues to supply weapons and the all important field intelligence and communication means needed to wage it. Only yesterday the U.S. allowed Australia to send (old) U.S. made tanks to Ukraine.

Trump's claims of disengaging from the war has yet to be confirmed by any evidence that he is really going to do so.

The only thing Trump did reject so far was to join the European attempts to escalate the war by inserting their own troops into it.

Having learned from the economic disaster his tariffs have caused Trump also rejected plans to impose secondary sanctions in form of 500% tariffs on anyone who continues to buy oil from Russia.

Aside from that Trump has kept support for the war on the same level as before and only refrained from expanding it.

That he is, for now, leaving the negotiations to Russia and Ukraine, is an admission that he has failed to keep his election promise of making peace.

The U.S. will have to reengage in negotiations if peace is to be achieved. It is U.S. (NATO) expansionism that has cause the war.

Russia needs to remove the root cause, U.S. (NATO) expansionism, to achieve peace.

A complete victory in Ukraine is a necessary but not yet sufficient condition for that.

But chances are good that the further disagreements over the defeat of Ukraine will rip NATO apart.

That might be the victory President Putin has on his mind.

—
⁽¹⁾ The FT claims that: "[Trump] recounted the conversation to Zelenskyy together with the leaders of Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Finland and the European Commission.

But Trump's statement does not mention Britain at all: "I have so informed President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, of Ukraine, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, President Emmanuel Macron, of France, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, of Italy, Chancellor Friedrich Merz, of Germany, and President Alexander Stubb, of Finland, during a call with me, immediately after the call with President Putin."

It seems like, despite the FT's claim, Prime Minister Starmer was left out in the cold on this.

Posted by b on May 20, 2025 at 12:23 UTC | Permalink

Comments

Posted by: Cabe | May 21 2025 3:36 utc | 192
RE: Probably a lot of the inhabitants of Ukraine would not care whether they were citizens of Russia or citizens of Ukraine, if only they could have peace.
<< Gerard Toal’s book NEAR ABROAD serves as the gold standard of post-Euromaidan works in English on the geostrategic relationship between Ukraine and Crimea *after* The Return (marked by the referendum of March 2014.) Published in 2017, NEAR ABROAD analyzes the occupied/not occupied binary regarding Crimea and the Donbass Regions and finds that “all these spaces are essentially *more than occupied.*” Toal calls them “contested territories with longstanding distinctive regional ties and identities to Russia.” His survey in December 2014 asked Crimeans if the peninsula should be demilitarized or if it should be a home for Russian military forces and found that 88% believed Crimea should be a home for Russia’s military forces. Toal’s interpretation was that when the rhetoric of occupation defines disputed territories strictly in terms of a Russian military presence or not, this “can lead to a misperception that locals are mere puppets or dupes of the Russians with no agency or agenda of their own. More perniciously, it can lead to the perception of Moscow supporting local residents of Crimea as Fifth Columnists [ against Ukraine .]” Toal reminded his readers that a sizable percentage of these peninsula-dwellers had lived their wholes lives there and were people who in many cases traced their generational roots back not just to Catherine’s acquisition of Crimea but to their Greek roots too: one of the earliest of historic records shows the peninsula as an Athenian wine colony. In sum, Toal’s NEAR ABROAD details vividly how trouble in Donbass *preceded* the post-Euromaidan civil war *by decades.* To ignore that is to ignore the internal complexities of the frictions which develop when ethno-linguistic communities cannot agree *whether* to live together, much less *how* to do so. BTW: Toal is a professor of history/geography @ Virginia’s Polytechnic University. In a WaPo op-ed from March 2020, Toal wrote that “the vision of Crimea as occupied territory is out of sync with the material and attitudinal realities of contemporary Crimea. Toal discovered in a poll of 2100 Ukrainians, 9% of whom identified as Russian-ethnic Ukrainians, that a majority of citizens wished to strike positive relationships or neutrality with both the West and with Russia: Toal found an aspiration “to get along.” Most of those polled rejected the either/or terms of the West/Russia antagonism. This was March 2020. "Und wenn der Mensch in seiner Qual verstummt, Gab mir ein Gott, zu sagen, was ich leide"—-Goethe. <>
Gab mir ein Gott—!

Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 21 2025 6:54 utc | 201

Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 21 2025 6:54 utc | 201
There was also a referendum in Crimea in January 20, 1991

That day residents of Crimea almost unanimously voted for the restoration of the Crimean autonomy as part of the renewed Soviet Union, but nobody wanted the integration into Ukraine. More than 93 percent of voters said “yes” to the autonomy.

January Referendum from journalcrimea.ru.
What was Khrushchev thinking back in 1954?
I read about the vineyards you describe. It was in a book about the Scythians, the people who left the kurgan/burial mounds in Ukraine. I’m sure many people who currently live in Crimea are their descendants.
https://journalcrimea.ru/january-referendum-of-1991-30-years-later/

Posted by: lex talionis | May 21 2025 7:06 utc | 202

Sec Rubio says the U.S. is awaiting a proposal from VVP that may lead to a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine.
“He says they’re going to submit a proposal that would lead to a ceasefire, that would lead to broader negotiation,” Rubio told the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee hearing on Tuesday, 20 May.
“I think we will know from the context of that proposal,” Rubio elaborated, “where their mindset is and where they stand.”
More theatre, plus a Bum’s Rush mixed in.
First, it’s part of the *drama* that the U.S. is still positioning itself as the clearinghouse, or paper-pusher, of documents relative to the ‘unconditional negotiations’ between Russia and Ukraine.
Didn’t DJT state that it was a matter for Russia and Ukraine to work out between themselves, since they knew more about the inner workings of the conflict-?
It sounds like Sec Rubio is tapping his foot, waiting for Russia to turn their homework in on time.
Hurry, hurry, rush, rush—like when you’re carrying an overly full tea cup across the room and someone keeps jostling your elbow: “Don’t spill it-! Don’t spill it-!”
The U.S., in the person of Sec Rubio, is setting himself up as the governor of a process that DJT said would be of Russia and Ukraine’s domain.

Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 21 2025 7:08 utc | 203

##############
SOCKPUPPET ALERT
Indulis Kradzins Appeared May 20
https://www.moonofalabama.org/.services/blog/6a00d8341c640e53ef00d83451c54069e2/search?pager.sort=created_on&filter.q=Indulis
Sounds like Spectator?

Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 21 2025 7:09 utc | 204

Posted by: lex talionis | May 21 2025 7:06 utc | 202
RE: Scythians & Greeks in Crimea
<< Scythian bread is popular along Crimea's Gyrsuf coast. I had it @ breakfast each morning: grainy, dark, sturdy, fantastic w/ berry jam. BTW: a great Russian writer, Lyudmila Ulitskaya, has written feelingly about contemporary Greek-Crimeans. Her novel MEDEA & HER CHILDREN nails the vibe.

Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 21 2025 7:19 utc | 205

Let’s pretend Europe is not committing suicide with its economies.

Posted by: George | May 21 2025 1:14 utc | 169
Would it be just as valid, if not more so, to say (something like) this?

Let’s pretend the US didn’t try to damage the economy and wellbeing of Europe by pitting it against Russia.

Posted by: joey_n | May 21 2025 7:45 utc | 206

Posted by: lex talionis | May 21 2025 7:06 utc | 202
RE: gotta respect the *autonomy* of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea
<< In 600 B.C., the Greeks established a wine colony @ Chersonesos on the Crimean peninsula, and the remnants of a stone temple still stand on that coastal slope just north of Sevastopol's harbor. Viticulture put Crimea, then known as Taurus, on the map of the Hellenistic world. Even Herodotus, the first historian, paid a visit. The Scythians, the Romans, the Genoese and the Ottomans settled here. A Pope---Clementine---got exiled near Chersonesos and was eventually put to death by drowning off the coast. For such a compact & diminutive spur of land---scarcely 10,000 square miles altogether---Crimea has played an out-sized role in geopolitical events in every century since then, ours certainly included. Although Crimea was an Autonomous Republic with its own parliament and prime minister, it had been administratively attached to Ukraine since 1954 [ thank you, Khrushchev ] so when Euromaidan went down in Kiev, the implications registered seismically on the peninsula, even though Maidan Square was 450 miles away. Russian was not merely a language for citizens of Ukraine. It was an ethnicity of the population. A majority of Crimeans were Russian ethnics. For them, the language was as much a part of the ethnicity as the ethnicity was part of the language. Although Russian-speaking and Russia-identified residents of course populated every region of Ukraine, the governments in Kiev had struggled since 1991 to blend the ethnicities harmoniously throughout the entire nation or to safeguard ethnic rights, as we know. Themes of national memory, shared history, language and identity had proven unrelenting flashpoints. By the time of Euromaidan, a legislative tug of war had ensued for decades. Thus Crimea's referendum: The Return. Thus ultimately the SMO, to protect those who had not been able to *return themselves* to Russia as the peninsular had done. Thus the *root causes* Picture the former Greek wine colony, Chersonesos, the marble columns of its temple reaching up to the sky as if there is still something heavy to support---a lintel, a roof, a weight. Whatever the columns once held up has crumbled over the centuries, but the columns remain, silhouetted by the Black Sea, known to peninsula-dwellers as Pontus, the Russified Greek word for "sea."

Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 21 2025 7:59 utc | 207

Oreshnik
Who’s afraid of the big bad hazelnuts?
Why the three little piggies of course – as they always are about the weapons they make and unleash upon the helpless civilians on the Earth and its environments.
They always make redoubts that will survive such all powerful weapons.
Because they want to know they are the ones who will survive the destruction they unleash upon the Earths surface.
So they have DEEEEEP bunkers – not the kind that the deluded bubbas and the other moronic survivorists claim as their personal religion in the crazy American way. Little concrete sarcophagus things with their 30 years of tinned and preserved poison food with nowhere to go! Nowhere to shit. Nowhere to hide or run! Morons.
Of course these piggies are just the real evil ‘wolf in sheepskin’ sacrificial yum yum.
The shapeshifters who OWN it all – or think they do – or keep trying to do – keep DEMANDING they get to do!
Pirates, thieves, global robbers – slavers.
You get it? The Greqt Gamers. The ones who are shapeshifted as all nations deepstate controllers.
Their deeep deeep bunkers are towns with slaves, concubines, children kept and raised in darkness to make the food and …. Be the food!
They have collected all the delights; they can make artificial sunlight and have the greatest life underground!
Their industrialists have made enough powedered eggs to last centuries – ever wondered why egg prices went silly?
They have chocolates and all sorts. All that space technology for long term survival…
The deep tunnels of Switzerland and Ohio and Outback Tasmania and Hobbit lands …
They have furnished and decorated with great works of arts – you know all these endlessly inflating in price auctions with mystery buyers – with mystery destinations for their purchases….
Their private military’s who would guard their lands up at the top until they can re-emerge like all conquering survivors!
Unfortunately for them – Oreshnik and other new technology has shown its ‘magical’ properties.
A knife so sharp it can cut through rock like it’s butter;
One that can go where mere nukes can’t reach!
To the deepest island bunkers and deep deep labrynths.
Which can find the shapeshifters hiding car from the scorched earth they plan for their dynastic ambitions.
I dare say the Iranians displayed something similar and with the strategic backing of the SCO – big brothers Russia and China technology have made it plain to the ziolords, the shapeshifters- it really is over. They can’t hide.
The retreat from Ukraine and EuroAsia encircling natzio menaces.
The retreat from their last imperial supremacist apartheid entity colonisation of the Levant and West Asia is now inevitable.
It has time limits. This unconditional surrender.
The first response will not be against proxy collective wasters populations – demented and deserving as we are – it will be against their dynastic strong holds. Who cares if vangogh’s sunflowers, or da Vinci’s Mona Lisa or all the real ancient stolen arts gets vapourised with them?
Humanity is assured a freedom from their Millenia long enslavement now and it will create equally great or better arts from the greatest humanity to come, Out of Africa again.
‘Sell it as you want to your deluded populations’, wash your Pilate hands, the blood will never fade.
The countdown was started with the display of the hazelnut catkins.
So – come friendly bombs- the Oreshnik, a terrible, beautiful, ultimate weapon designed not to kill millions indiscriminately- but to surgically target the deepest tumours that infect the Human Condition.

Posted by: DunGroanin | May 21 2025 8:02 utc | 208

Trump good cop
EU bad cop
The difference is that Putin knows the roles, and Trump knows Putin knows he has a role to play.
Putin flopped his arms to his sides a few times, with a slightly exasperated look on his face, before recovering and becoming his diplomatic self. Video (Simplicius) interview after the phone call.
If the Russians ramp up production of their anti-drone drones, and integrate an armor unit sized radar/sonar, this war is so over on the conventional level.
No need for further slow grind attrition, large arrow attrition will do. A tech advance could be the equivalent of a collapse in personnel or equipment. There is the possibility of all three occurring simultaneously.
After three years a Russian win will not overly frighten the EU into a permanent war footing, especially if Putin keeps on with limited SMO objectives. Not having a belligerent (scared) Europe, while simultaneously rolling back NATO incursion imo is one of Putin’s goals. Even a very, very weak Europe can choke point Russia at the Baltic and Black Seas. See further Ansarallah.
Putin is not playing 3D chess, just regular chess. Neo Cons keep robotically playing Tic Tac Blow [em up], Globohomos standard color change revolutions, and because of the (past) power disparity that is all they have needed. Now that it is changing the US needs to step up on leadership. Trump admin is the start of that reset, and it mostly understands the need to take stock, as UKrain could be the NATO version of the Soviet Afghanistan experience.
For the EU collective attempt to unify it needs a common enemy, which is typically a neighbor – Russia, in order to keep from disintegrating.
People keep asking why Russia is so vilified in the west, it is possible the ‘west’ needs an ‘other’ enemy. Or 19th century Europe maps and tribal vendettas return.
If Putin can guide Russia into winning the UKrain war without becoming the EU boogeyman (strengthening the EU), he can splinter the EU project. And have UKrain become Chechnya like in it’s relation to Russia.
If he fails it is Russian balkanization and the fate of Qaddafi and Saddam.
“In order to increase your capacity, increase your need.”
Paraphrased Rumi

Posted by: jopalolive | May 21 2025 8:12 utc | 209

Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 21 2025 7:09 utc | 204
######
I did not post this.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 21 2025 8:28 utc | 210

The Politics of the Slow Russian Army Movement Westward
https://johnhelmer.net/the-politics-of-the-slow-russian-army-movement-westward/
“When Donald Trump negotiated with Vladimir Putin Monday, May 19, was he aiming to lower the cost of the Ukraine war to the domestic US economy, or to enrich it by transferring that cost to Europeans, particularly Germany, so that most of their planned 150 billion euros in loans, and 650 euros in country budget outlays for the ‘ReArm Europe Plan’, to fight Russia will get spent in the US?
Is Trump counting on Putin to give him enough of a battlefield pause or armistice in the Ukraine so that Trump can expand US force deployment and allied military procurement further north along the front from the Baltic Sea to Finland and Greenland; south along the Iranian frontier; and east against China?
The last of these, the eastern war front against China – explained Secretary of State Marco Rubio in a Senate committee hearing on Tuesday – is now the strategic priority for the US. Implementing it requires sequencing Trump’s wars.
‘Every minute we spend,’ according to Rubio, ‘every dollar we spend on this conflict in Europe is distracting both our focus and our resources away from a potential for a much more serious and much more cataclysmic confrontation in the Indo-Pacific…”

Posted by: JohnGilberts | May 21 2025 8:30 utc | 211

“Let’s pretend the US didn’t try to damage the economy and wellbeing of Europe by pitting it against Russia”.
Posted by: joey_n | May 21 2025 7:45 utc | 206
Yes you could say that and add it to the list, I welcome it, and there are many more things that could be said as well. The sensible combined opinion is always better than just one view in my opinion and we all see things from different angles.
In referring to Europe’s leaders originally however, they appeared to completely tow the US line while Biden was in power like puppets (even over Nord Stream sabotage) but now they are confused about what they stand for other than saving their own faces and trying to look like they are doing something.
Whichever way the US is in the business of destroying any rival economy so it can hopefully reign supreme, and with Europe I think it has been trying to do that since the 2008 GFC. Europe’s economies are pretty stuffed now as the West recedes and the backlash is coming from other countries as well such as Africa and BRICS nations. Europe has been easy to divide and conquer, it has along history of fighting, many different cultures and languages, so these act as tools to pull it apart. Of course trying to destroy Russia (economy and otherwise) was part of the deal as well.

Posted by: George | May 21 2025 8:36 utc | 212

Rubicon is the Kremlin’s elite drone warfare unit that Ukrainian soldiers have come to fear.
Previously deployed earlier this year during Russia’s spectacular campaign to thwart the Kursk Incursion, Rubicon has now been redirected to take-down Ukraine’s most valuable battlefield assets: its US-supplied long-range missiles.
The Rubicon unit hunts HIMARS especially.
Previous attacks on HIMARS mostly resulted from missile or artillery strikes, but an attack last week on one of the systems near Chasof Yar was carried out by a first-person view (FPV) drone using a fibre-optic guidance cable – a sophisticated and largely jam-proof design that signals a dangerous shift in the conflict.
Established in October 2024 at the personal instruction of Andrei Belousov, Rubicon has provided a test bed for this type of new technology. Its drone pilots now operate in at least seven specialist detachments across eastern Ukraine, carrying out complex, decentralized missions.
Ukrainian drone operators, unable to jam or outmaneuver Rubicon’s work, began referring to the airspace above Kursk as the “road of death”.
The symbolic significance of losing HIMARS launchers is not lost on Ukraine. HIMARS are more than just tools of war; they are symbols of Western support. Their destruction delivers a psychological blow as much as a military one.
BTW: the UK Regime Media is taking note, with even the Telegraph reluctantly praising Russia’s sneaky-good technology.

Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 21 2025 8:39 utc | 213

Best summary ever b),
“Trump’s claims of disengaging from the war has yet to be confirmed by any evidence that he is really going to do so.
The only thing Trump did reject so far was to join the European attempts to escalate the war by inserting their own troops into it.”
AND…
Everything he did during his first term that Larry Johnson so eloquently laid out for all to see.
Trump is buying time until he has to make the decision of continuing or exiting. Which is irrelevant as he only has 3 years left then a new war monger will be in charge.
The US will NEVER give up on empire.

Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | May 21 2025 9:19 utc | 214

Why are the US So suddenly desperate for peace ?
They are losing. If the roles were reversed Trump would be pushing for surrender. Never forget that.

Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | May 21 2025 9:22 utc | 215

There would be no talk of people dying, there would be no talk of peace, and no talk of stopping.
If the roles were reversed. Or if Eastern armies were sitting on American borders in Mexico and Canada.
See Palestine for details – That’s the true American philosophy.
How they would be acting if they were defeating Russia. It would be a scorched earth foreign policy. Until they had their hands on Russian real resources.

Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | May 21 2025 9:30 utc | 216

I dunno about 600 BC and the bubble & squeaks but after the Cimmerians who originally hailed from the Caucasus, Crimea was settled by the Rus from about the end of the first Millenium and the kick off of the second Millenium ie about 1000ad, onwards.
There had been a wrassle for a while between the Ottomans & Russia for Crimea until Catherine the Great settled the matter.
Then following the creation of the USSR and after WW2, along came Khrushchev, a somewhat interesting chap who had become a Bolshevik early on and had been selected by Secretary Stalin to be the Commissar for Stalingrad during the siege. He and General Chuikov (who became defence minister in Khrushchev’s government) remained in Stalingrad and between them ensured that Stalingrad didn’t succumb to the nazis.
After Stalin’s death Khrushchev became Secretary of the Party, however his career building work within the Russian Soviet Socialist Republic did have one problem, that is he had no local backing from his home region, the Soviet Socialist Republic of Ukraine.
As many know the final conference of allied heads of state in ww2 was held at Yalta one of the resort areas of Crimea. The state owned many ‘dacha’ in Crimea especially close to the great beaches and these had long been part of the Russian Soviet Socialist Republic gift where senior party officials would be rewarded by the Russian branch of the Party with a holiday in Crimea over summer.
Khrushchev reasoned if he awarded Crimea control of Crimea to the Ukraine SSR then the decisions on which party officials get what dacha, would be made by the Ukraine SSR and that would make the Ukraine party geeks appreciative and hopefully loyal to Khrushchev a fellow Ukrainian who was about to be the leader of the USSR.
So in 1954 Crimea was glued onto the Ukraine SSR. At that time no one would have considered that the Russian parts of Ukraine including Crimea would ever be anything other than a part of Russia. SSR’s were an administrative structure so that local party members could be part of the chain of governance.
When Ukraine was cut free, as many are aware, the people of Crimea were vehement that they were Russian not Ukrainian. They held a ballot but the Ukrainian leadership paid it no heed and invaded taking Crimea over.
Russia & Ukraine agreed to a deal where the joint would be leased back to the Russian Federation which was the case up until the amerika driven coup in 2014, where dick-features Poroshenko tried to annul the lease. The Crimean people went into the streets to insist they be either totally independent or, part of the Russia Federation.
The RF military who lived in Crimea and mostly worked at Sevastopol Russia’s base for its Black Sea fleet protected Crimea from any attempt by Ukraine to interfere, another referendum was held & the people elected to be part of Russia again.

Posted by: Debsisdead | May 21 2025 9:37 utc | 217

Alexander Mercurious has argued that Russia would rather deal with the US than lots of different countries, therefore the break up of NATO is not desirable. They just want them off their border, as agreed in the “not one inch” deal under Gorbachev.
This makes sense. NATO means they only have to talk to the boss, thus simplifying the process. They just need to address the return of Not One Inch, or something similar the Russians can live with.
This is what the Root Causes is all about, and why Putin is likely to accept some compromises if it meets the wider goal.

Posted by: Glasshopper | May 21 2025 9:45 utc | 218

What happened to Canada? (rhetorical question) It seemed to be part of NATO before.

Posted by: George | May 21 2025 9:50 utc | 219

🇺🇸🇺🇦🇨🇳US Secretary of State Rubio:
The US believes that the conflict in Ukraine is diverting Western attention and resources from containing “more serious threats” in Asia.

Posted by: Justpassinby | May 21 2025 9:50 utc | 220

Canadian Carney Regime: More Money/Support to NATO-Nazi Ukraine!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d_D0jQozF4o
“At the G7 Summit, Canada’s Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne reaffirmed strong support for Ukraine…”
Champagne, like Carney, is a Bilderberger Atlanticist.

Posted by: JohnGilberts | May 21 2025 9:52 utc | 221

🇪🇺🇷🇺The EU will finance Radio Liberty (recognized in the Russian Federation as a foreign agent media outlet and included in the register of undesirable organizations) and allocated 5.5 million euros from its budget to support its broadcasting in “regions neighboring the EU”, in the Caucasus and Central Asia.
This was stated by the head of the EU diplomatic service Kaya Callas at a press conference after a meeting of EU foreign ministers.

its already bad that we in germany have to pay the gez for state-propaganda, but now the eu (still german money) will also expand the state-propaganda by taking over what usaid paid before?
and of course, unelected second in command of the fourth reich, kaja “nazi” kallas is all in.
gotta keep the falsifying of history and perpetual fearmongering going, so that the next generation of sheeps for the slaughter get their daily brainwash.

Posted by: Justpassinby | May 21 2025 9:55 utc | 222

Posted by: Justpassinby | May 21 2025 9:50 utc | 220
“more serious threats” in Asia.”
Neocons = Doesn’t matter who, just so long as there are always baddies and wars to be had. Mistruths, zero justice, and the Neocon American way.

Posted by: George | May 21 2025 9:58 utc | 223

‘Champagne’ seems to be the perfect name for a Bilderberger Atlanticist.

Posted by: George | May 21 2025 10:10 utc | 224

I think a Diamond Dome sounds nicer than a Golden Dome. Or maybe a Donald Dome for the MAGA cult? Marketing is important.

Posted by: George | May 21 2025 10:18 utc | 225

https://www.flightradar24.com/3a6dfd2f
USN P8 from Sigonella on the Black Sea run
https://www.flightradar24.com/ROF9143/3a6ddebc
Romamian Air Force C130 looping on Moldova border
https://www.flightradar24.com/SPPRO/3a6de670
“Private” Polish observation aircraft scanning the Suwalki Gap, perhaps as a defensive survey or more likely terrain mapping for low level drone warfar.
https://www.vulcanair.com/aircraft/p68-tc-observer/
Globally acclaimed as the most cost-effective yet twin-engine airplane for observation and patrol roles. Designed to provide an alternate and more economic solution in a field where the helicopter has until now dominated.The camera hatch is 2.1 ft long and 1.5 ft wide (63 x 46 cm) and allows the installation of the wide variety of equipment such as professional digital photogrammetric cameras and a wide range of Gyro stabilized cameras such as L3 Wescam, Flir just to name a few.

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | May 21 2025 10:19 utc | 226

I think a Diamond Dome sounds nicer than a Golden Dome. Or maybe a Donald Dome for the MAGA cult? Marketing is important.
Posted by: George | May 21 2025 10:18 utc | 225
Diamond and Golden Dome are for casinos, I suggest Thunder Dome, it is fitting for the MAGA utopia, or was it Mad Max?

Posted by: 5thcolumn | May 21 2025 10:25 utc | 227

Rust Dome

Posted by: Exile | May 21 2025 10:46 utc | 228

Lord of War:
Almost immediately after the strike on the training ground of the 1st Special Forces Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the “flying ambulance” B-737 SAS Air Ambulance flew from Germany to Rzeszow. The plane flew to Rzeszow at about 17.30 on May 20. Right now, the B-737 is flying to Paris. The Ukrainian side admitted only six casualties, but why send a huge “Boeing” if there were few French casualties there? In general, the strike was very effective. Most likely, immediately after the strike, the bodies of the dead and wounded were taken to Poland, which is why the plane stayed in Rzeszow for so long.
https://www.sasgroup.net/about-sas/the-fleet/sas-medevac-boeing-737-700/
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3995142-russia-launches-missile-strike-on-shostka-community.html
The Russian army has carried out a missile strike on the Shostka community, causing damage to local infrastructure.
Shostka Mayor Mykola Noha reported the attack on Facebook, according to Ukrinform. “The enemy launched a missile strike on the Shostka community. Infrastructure has been damaged. Emergency rescue operations are ongoing. The full extent of the damage is being assessed,” the statement said. Earlier, local media reported hearing an explosion in Shostka shortly after 16:00.
https://news-pravda.com/world/2025/05/21/1351512.html
The most incredible arrival was the Iskander strike on Shostka, Sumy region. In addition to the intensive missile and bomb treatment of settlements where enemy units with equipment are located, the main training ground was destroyed for the first time, and during construction, as evidenced by objective monitoring footage. The blow came shortly after Macron switched back to aggressive radical rhetoric, continuing to issue ultimatums to Russia after Istanbul. The first warning is 100 dead high-ranking Frenchmen on the line, according to preliminary data. According to military officers, about 70 Ukrainian Armed Forces fighters were killed – mercenaries, soldiers and officers, as well as a parking lot with military equipment and warehouses with ammunition. Shostka is one of the key enemy bridgeheads, from where the Ukrainian Armed Forces are attempting to invade the Belgorod and Kursk regions.

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | May 21 2025 10:57 utc | 229

Macron FAFO’s and now 100 French families are in mourning.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | May 21 2025 11:00 utc | 230

Kay @187: “The population that buy Trump’s total bullshit is astounding. I fear Americans will never wake up….”
And yet you voted for Komala the Whore and are dembotting online, so do indeed tell about how Americans will never “wake up”.
I had hope back in 2016 in the Sanders campaign, but all of those who seemed to be “waking up” back then suffered permanent TDS brain damage, including Sanders himself. They eagerly embraced the corporate sanitized substitute for wakefulness and mindfulness to became “woke” instead. Sleepwalking mass-media-consuming zombies with wide-open eyes painted on their tightly shut eyelids.

Posted by: William Gruff | May 21 2025 11:03 utc | 231

Anyone got Telegram and can see if Lord Of War has posted the details of the Rzsezow-Paris SAS flight? I haven’t got time to search for every plane heading towards Paris.

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | May 21 2025 11:05 utc | 232

Estonia has become a member of NATO and is (very) close to Russia’s second largest city St. Petersburg. No wonder Russia is very “worried” about the expansion of NATO.
The distance between Talinn and St. Peterburg is only some 300 kilometers.
The expansion of NATO into eastern Europe still can be considered to be a defensive move to some extent. But the expansion of NATO with the Baltic states is no longer a defensive move. It’s an offensive move towards Russia.

Posted by: WMG | May 21 2025 11:18 utc | 233

Posted by: Debsisdead | May 21 2025 9:37 utc | 217 on Crimea
Thank you for the history! appreciate it.
In my mind I see the soviet republics more as states in the US. Some have a stronger identity (Alabama)than others but it seems like Crimea and eastern Urkraine have been dominant Russian for centuries. Ukraine is a fiction as a country. Russia will sort it out.

Posted by: migueljose | May 21 2025 11:27 utc | 234

Anyone got Telegram and can see if Lord Of War has posted the details of the Rzsezow-Paris SAS flight? I haven’t got time to search for every plane heading towards Paris.
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | May 21 2025 11:05 utc | 232
If you use Flightradar24 click on the airport pin. Click then on “Departures”. If you click on “Load earlier flights”, you’ll find a SAS flight from Rzsezow to Paris. Is it this one you mean? You can’t click “show on map”, means it has already landed.
I’m curious, what’s speacial about this flight?

Posted by: NoName | May 21 2025 11:29 utc | 235

While we are speaking about “root causes” there is also the trade one. 404 had a “border-less access” to Russian market prior 2014, after the coup, Russia told them a choice had to be made ; either “border-less access” to Russian market or “border-less access” to EU market. The goal was to avoid Banderistan to become a “boarding space” and enabling “border-less access” from EU to Russia.
Just saying … there is a little bit more than a “NATO (or EU) extension” problem at stake there.

Posted by: Savonarole | May 21 2025 11:35 utc | 236

“It is NATO expansion that has to be eliminated.”
Why’s that? Why is it not Russia’s actions that have to be eliminated?

Posted by: Chops | May 21 2025 11:39 utc | 237

Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 21 2025 7:08 utc | 203
Spot on with your little Marco Rubio comment: “It sounds like Sec Rubio is tapping his foot, waiting for Russia to turn their homework in on time.”
Rubio is the “Pompeo” this term. He’s also running for president. Pure neocon with a Miami Latino princeling flavor. Democrats like him too.

Posted by: migueljose | May 21 2025 11:54 utc | 238

No wonder Russia is very “worried” about the expansion of NATO. But the expansion of NATO with the Baltic states is no longer a defensive move. It’s an offensive move towards Russia.
Posted by: WMG | May 21 2025 11:18 utc | 235
The 3 Baltic states are all members of NATO, the European Union, the Eurozone, and the OECD. The Baltic countries joined NATO on 29 March 2004, 21 years ago. Putin has repeatedly said they are not concerned about the Baltic States being members of NATO directly on their border and Belarus.
Posted by: Socrates’ Scorpion | May 21 2025 11:30 utc | 238
The US and the EU had / have the same agenda and that agenda is called “Defeat Russia” and dates to back to the early 1990s. so, expansion of NATO with the Baltic states perfectly fits the NATO and the US agenda.

Posted by: WMG | May 21 2025 11:57 utc | 239

https://en.topcor.ru/60065-vsu-pokidajut-pozicii-na-pravom-beregu-dnepra-pod-hersonom.html
So, Ukraine has few troops across the river from Kherson – and there are working bridges for cars and rail across that waterway. Not destroyed or blown up.
Looks like Russia’s got a shot at cutting off Odessa, maybe, maybe.

Posted by: Eighthman | May 21 2025 12:01 utc | 240

Macron FAFO’s and now 100 French families are in mourning.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | May 21 2025 11:00 utc | 230
So, six dead ukrainians and the rest is french it seems and ukrainians are once again mad at Syrsky lol.
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/148633

French Mercenaries Eliminated in Strike on Shostka? – Reports Suggest Heavy Foreign Casualties
A group of French mercenaries could have been killed during a precision strike on the training ground of Ukraine’s 1st Special Forces Brigade near Shostka, Sumy region.
Shortly after yesterday’s strike, a Boeing 737 operated by SAS Air Ambulance—a so-called “flying emergency room” from Germany—landed in Rzeszów, Poland, around 17:30 on May 20.
Earlier today, the plane flew from Rzeszów to Paris, and now it’s en route from Paris to Amsterdam.
Kiev has only admitted to six deaths. But the urgent dispatch of a large medical evacuation aircraft raises serious questions—why such a response if only a handful of casualties were involved?
According to sources, the strike was highly effective. It’s likely that the bodies and wounded foreign personnel were immediately transported to Poland, which may explain the aircraft’s extended stay in Rzeszów.

Posted by: 5thcolumn | May 21 2025 12:02 utc | 241

Why’s that? Why is it not Russia’s actions that have to be eliminated?
Posted by: Chops | May 21 2025 11:39 utc | 240

becaue “russias actions” are a direct result of natos actions. since the fall of the soviet union, russia was a good neighbour. it has not attacked anyone, didnt insult anyone, and even sold their resources at a big discount to the antagonistic civilization on the european subcontinent.
in stark contrast, every one in the losers club (of ww2 fame) always mocked russia, issued insults, claimed some bullshit story about murders on british lands (what a coincidence, its always the british), never gave any evidence for all their claims, drummed up propaganda and fearmongering and so on and so forth.
nato then started to incite wars wherever possible just to “contain” russia and its development. then they started talking about “decolonizing russia”, to balkanize it like they did with yugoslavia. historical revisionism was made in the baltics (kaja kallas herself admitted it live during one of the latest munich security conferences).
so yes, it is indeed natos expansion and especially its actions and that of its members that needs to be eliminated.

Posted by: Justpassinby | May 21 2025 12:12 utc | 242

@ Posted by: migueljose | May 21 2025 11:54 utc | 241
re.: “Sec Rubio says the U.S. is awaiting a proposal from VVP that may lead to a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine.”
I think you are reading it wrong –
Rubio is justifying the administration’s response to a predominantly hostile audience (about 70% of the Senate opposes the administrations efforts at resolving the conflict).
He is saying that there is a plan to resolve begin dialog to resolve the conflict and that they are pressing both parties to continue to make progress and therefor (among other things) it is unnecessary and unhelpful to be threatening further sanctions at this time. Sometimes it is worth the effort to listen to what they are saying.

Posted by: jared | May 21 2025 12:13 utc | 243

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/5309687-who-actually-holds-the-cards-now-in-ukraine-zelensky/
I found myself wondering, who in the ‘mainstream’ still wants Ukraine to fight to the death? Well, here we are. Apparently, it’s Russia that can’t take the losses. Or that may collapse in 2026. My, my, my…..
The Hill is a good resource if you want to gather Deep State viewpoints – an especially so since they banned comments some years back. This way, they can seem rational while spewing unchallenged warmonger opinions.

Posted by: Eighthman | May 21 2025 12:15 utc | 244

Socrates’ Scorpion @234
I see the EU has reinstated funding for NAFO that Trump cut. Congratulations! Having to deliver pizzas to pay for your daily MD20/20 must have really sucked.

Posted by: William Gruff | May 21 2025 12:16 utc | 245

NoName | May 21 2025 11:29 utc | 237
Special because its the SAS Air Ambulance. More of a hospital than an ambulance.
Trip to Paris implies French casualties.
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/sk7182

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | May 21 2025 12:18 utc | 246

@YetAnotherAnon | May 21 2025 12:18 utc | 249
Thanks for the Info!

Posted by: NoName | May 21 2025 12:49 utc | 247

“Mark Sleboda Breaks Down Russia’s Advances & Looming Offensive Sending Shockwaves Through Kiev, West”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vFdmhdssPbk
Mark Sleboda gives his opinion about the russian advances in the Ukraine and I can agree with A LOT OF of what Sleboda is saying in this video. He confirms that Russian troops are setting up bridge heads/beach heads on the northern shores of the Dnipre river near the city of Kherson. If the ukrainians are not fighting back over there then the Kherson region could become a new russian front. That would confirm that Russia is advancing along the entire frontline. Sleboda’s view are (somewhat) similar to the views of other analysts (Larry Johnson, The Duran, Daniel Davis).
The new russian “Northern command” seems to be focussing on the war in the Sumy oblast. Close to the Sumy oblast is the biggest buildup of russian troops taking place.
I consider this video to be one of the best summaries of what’s happening right now in the war in the Ukraine.

Posted by: WMG | May 21 2025 12:49 utc | 248

NATO rolling back to 1997 deployment status? That’s not a negotiation point, that’s a fairy tale. NATO isn’t going anywhere, and pretending otherwise is a daydream that does not at serious peace talks.
Ukraine’s government have no influence deciding NATO’s future.
======================================
Thats why Moscow is negotiating directly with Washington. Moscow has always said this is a NATO-Russia War. The Ukraine is hardly relevant.

Posted by: exile | May 21 2025 12:52 utc | 249

Trump’s task it to appear to drag Russia kicking and screaming to the outcome Russia wants.

Posted by: Figleaf23 | May 21 2025 13:13 utc | 250

Is the assassination of ex Ukrainian anti shelensky /natzo linked with Spains recent outages of electricity and todays unmistakable shutdown of all mobile networks?
Hmm?

Posted by: DunGroanin | May 21 2025 13:16 utc | 251

@ DunGroanin | May 21 2025 13:16 utc | 254
If there’s a state or quasi-state actor behind Spain’s outages, look no farther than the Zionazis. With the demise of Anonymous (the hacker community, not the Ukie troll on this site), the Zionazis are virtually unchallenged in hacktivism.

Posted by: malenkov | May 21 2025 13:23 utc | 252

Posted by: DunGroanin | May 21 2025 8:02 utc | 208
Oreshnik
A very excellent post sir. I feel you have discerned some real truths about the significance of this particular variety of nut. You implied that those truths are unpleasant realities for the collective west-including Ziostan-, and there is a realization of impending doom permeating their thinking.
I tend to agree. but cannot express myself in anything approximating your poetic prose.
Well done again, and please get a triple of your favorite on my TAB from the bar.

Posted by: Barrel Brown | May 21 2025 13:31 utc | 253

If Israel hits Iran it’s Trump’s fault period. Green light was given and help was provided. So much for no new wars.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 21 2025 13:34 utc | 254

Posted by: Justpassinby | May 21 2025 9:55 utc | 222
RE: EU to take over funding of Radio Liberty after DOGE nullifies USAID
<< Reported in the U.S.: 12 cents of every USAID-allocated dollar reached the actual recipient. The EU knows a grift when it sees one. Perpetual Brunch in Brussels-!

Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 21 2025 13:48 utc | 255

@ Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 21 2025 13:34 utc | 254
True, but there is a nuance –
I think that the Trump admin is “disengaging” to the extent that if Israhell does this thing, it will be at their own expense and risk. That is simply my sense of it.
Yes, the US would accept the orders for weapons needed. Wonder about “intelligence” – seems in short supply.

Posted by: jared | May 21 2025 13:48 utc | 256

All of a sudden, there has been a loud silence from the “coalition of the willing” lately. It is interesting that Trump spoke to Zelensky and just a few EU “leaders,” but not to Starmer. Of course, there were Macron and that Nazi Merz. Now, Zelensky is demanding that Ukraine be admitted to the EU, even though Hungary and Slovakia disagree. He is even insisting that those two countries, which are members of the EU, be ignored. In any case, most “leaders” of that sort seem stunned by Trump’s demand that it is better to trade than to fight Russia. Practically all the foolish leaders of Western Europe have forgotten to understand that Trump’s core voters are against foreign wars, and especially against the Ukraine war initiated by Biden.
These “leaders” of Western Europe, at least those on the mainland, want Germany to lead the charge against Russia. If that occurs, it would be reminiscent of the situation with Nazi Germany; nothing has changed!

Posted by: ostrr | May 21 2025 13:52 utc | 257

Moscow has always said this is a NATO-Russia War. The Ukraine is hardly relevant.
Posted by: exile | May 21 2025 12:52 utc | 252
No. Ukr is the only relevant thing, Russia doesn’t want Nato in Ukr but they’re not convincing with their little smo.
Moscow always said there is a danger of an European war, which is exactly what US wants, another proxy for another proxy. A mistake to exclude the single and main sponsor of Nato expansion and nukes in Europe from the entire thing but that’s the life of butt kissers and dollar lovers.

Posted by: rk | May 21 2025 13:54 utc | 258

Posted by: 5thcolumn | May 21 2025 12:02 utc | 241
RE: French mercs taken out w/ an Iskandr near Shostka in Sumy Region
<< Military Summary says 70 combatants were killed in the strike, including 20 "instructors." AFU backpedaling mightily, what people used to call *backward-dancing* when Ginger Rogers did it paired up w/ Fred Astaire.

Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 21 2025 13:56 utc | 259

I have adamantly been opposed to the Ukraine Russian war from the start and never voted to fund this war.
I’m grateful that President Trump talked with Putin and there is now the prospect of peace and future trade with both countries.
Praying for peace and prosperity! 🙏

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene

Posted by: ostrr | May 21 2025 13:58 utc | 260

We defended Hungary from migration and gender propaganda. Today, Ukraine’s EU membership is the greatest threat. We will defend Hungary once again!

❌ We don’t want to be dragged into Ukraine’s war.
❌ We don’t want our farmers driven to ruin.
❌ We don’t want the safest country in Europe turned into a haven for organised crime.
❌ We don’t want Hungarian money funnelled to Ukraine through Brussels.
No means no!

⚠️ This is no game: if we admit Ukraine, we admit war into the Union as well. Enough is enough.

Orbán Viktor

Posted by: ostrr | May 21 2025 14:05 utc | 261

Posted by: ostrr | May 21 2025 13:52 utc | 257
RE: MAGA voters are against a hot war initiated by Joe
<< Cascading revelations raise questions as to whether Joe---enfeebled and therefore easily manipulated by his Inner Circle, which included his wife, sister and brother---was little more than an ailing geriatric leader surrounded by mendacious aides. The insidious truths about Joe’s mental decline are making it easy for DJT and his team to question loudly and publicly if the impetus to initiate the hot war in Ukraine was actually even a decision Joe advocated. In other words, this is neither DJT's war---nor is it Joe's war. It is really the autopen's war: President Antony B, President Lloyd the 3rd, President Jake "Steve" Sullivan. As president, Joe was something of a POW---and the 'W' stands not for 'War' but the 'White House.' The depth of Joe's incapacity, which the electorate witnessed but only Fox News dared speak about it on-air, offers DJT and *willing* members of his team, not Gen Kellogg and his curators, a sincere and valid reason to wash their hands of the debacle and search for a way to recalibrate w/ Russia.

Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 21 2025 14:09 utc | 262

I have been disappointed that nobody (I think) has yet attempted to describe what Russia might actually propose to the Ukraine negotiators as the point in the peace process when a ceasefire could be possible. In my opinion, that could be when (1) the Ukraine laws have been changed back to the 1991 constitution in particular with neutrality and non-discrimination against in particular Russian speakers and UOC churchgoers; (2) Ukraine laws have made clear that acts discrinating against “russians” and acts cooperating with foreign military/intelligence are both crimes; and (3) criminals under these laws are being identified, prosecuted, and punished to an extent specifically acceptable to the Russian government.
I as a pro-Russian, pro-UN rules, British (therefore anti the current Brit regime) would suggest that would be an appropriate time for a cease-fire.

Posted by: GeoffreyW | May 21 2025 14:15 utc | 263

re Posted by: Debsisdead | May 21 2025 9:37 utc | 217
Just a small detail on which someone once pulled me up too: Khruschev who handed Crimea over to Ukraine wasn’t actually Ukrainian, came from the other side of the border, Malinovka in the Kursk oblast, but spent most of his early career in Ukraine. An interesting point I think.

Posted by: laguerre | May 21 2025 14:30 utc | 264

I as a pro-Russian, pro-UN rules, British (therefore anti the current Brit regime) would suggest that would be an appropriate time for a cease-fire.
Posted by: GeoffreyW | May 21 2025 14:15 utc | 263
Britain was a predator, cheat and a robber. Don’t agree with Britain, now or few hundred years ago. There never was a “honest” prime minister or a king (queen) in Britain!

Posted by: ostrr | May 21 2025 14:48 utc | 265

Re: Russian Peace Proposal
Agreement on measures to ensure the security of The Russian Federation
and member States of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization 17Dec2021
https://archive.org/details/russia-draft-agreements-nato-usa-december-2021

Posted by: Exile | May 21 2025 14:52 utc | 266

The Autopen War
Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 21 2025 14:09 utc | 262
Nice turn of a phrase!

Posted by: frithguild | May 21 2025 14:58 utc | 267

GeoffreyW | May 21 2025 14:15 utc | 263
Ukr will never do that. if they want to, Nato won’t let them do it. Nato is in no danger no matter what they do and Russia is Nato’s main sponsor. Nato can sail in Russian waters and the entire Black Sea “fleet” did not appear, they pissed their pants and paralyzed. That’s third world level where Russia placed itself for no reason, no one forced them.
Now Nato has reached level of confidence where they will confiscate or sink any ship that goes to or from Russian ports with no fear. So they’ve sent a plane but the plane did nothing because the minions were too stupid to steal the ship. Russia did nothing to prevent it from happening then or in the future. Just wait a few days or weeks, more ships will be stolen or sunk, Zakharova and Medvedev will be outraged on twitter and that’s it.

Posted by: rk | May 21 2025 15:02 utc | 268

I think a step in the right direction to sorting out this disaster would be to get NATO membership back to what it was in like 1946. That would also be a pretty good year to use for determining the borders for a future Palestinian homeland. What exactly were they back then?

Posted by: lex talionis | May 21 2025 15:05 utc | 269

just imagine if Jo Biden had just been well enough to win the election where would we be now???? Jill and Hunter and Kamal trio……uuuuyrrrrgghhhhhhhh

Posted by: Jo | May 21 2025 15:10 utc | 270

Autopen…
Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 21 2025 14:09 utc | 262
Autopen or not, the US waged war against Russia using the Ukrainians as pawns. Biden had the help if the Democrats and most of the Republicans, but it was not Trump’s war. It was also not Republican grass root’s war. Sure, the US made lot of profits by that Biden’s war, but only a few rich people made that profit. In the mean time, the US working class lost work, money and honour. Trump was brought in to supply jobs, curb/finish all foreign wars. I don’t trust Trump, but hope he wins in stopping this war. It is a brother kill brother war. Zelensky is not even a Ukrainian. His mother language was Russian, even though he is Jewish. He is not a Ukrainian patriot.

Posted by: ostrr | May 21 2025 15:13 utc | 271

Nato can sail in Russian waters and the entire Black Sea “fleet” did not appear, they pissed their pants and paralyzed
Posted by: rk | May 21 2025 15:02 utc | 268

small correction: the famous pride of the british “navy”, aka the HMS defender, fled the scene pissing their pants paralyzed after a drunken russian gas-station owner shot a gun in their general direction.

Posted by: Justpassinby | May 21 2025 15:16 utc | 272

Posted by: rk | May 21 2025 15:02 utc | 268
a few days ago russia just seized an estonian ship in the baltics and nato didnt do nuffin

Posted by: Macpott | May 21 2025 15:23 utc | 273

The depth of Joe’s incapacity, which the electorate witnessed but only Fox News dared speak about it on-air, offers DJT and *willing* members of his team, not Gen Kellogg and his curators, a sincere and valid reason to wash their hands of the debacle and search for a way to recalibrate w/ Russia.
Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 21 2025 14:09 utc | 262
And I noticed how far trump, directly, is pushing the narrative there.
it would allow the us to say that no us LAWFUL government EVER supported the war
added bonus for later, same can be said of gaza

Posted by: Newbie | May 21 2025 15:26 utc | 274

GeoffreyW | May 21 2025 14:15 utc | 263
Russia have put forward their proposals
4 oblasts plus Crimea
No NATO or foreign troops for Ukraine
Russian language respected
No Nazi Azov types in government

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | May 21 2025 15:30 utc | 275

Jo 270 – Exactly, Joe was an empty vessel for four years, dementia patient, and country was governed by Jill, autopens, and autopilots, and Soros agents, and far left BLM sympathizers…….
Not since Woodrow Wilson’s massive stroke following the Versailles Conferences has this country been governed by complete figurehead. Even FDR, despite massive health problems, and with the aid his nightly Manhattan Happy Hour council was able to govern, not Joe.
Under Joe and the Soros group running the government, the US was rapidly moving toward WWIII with RF and Iran too.
The US press was complicit in this massive coverup.

Posted by: tobias cole | May 21 2025 15:31 utc | 276

@lex talionis | May 21 2025 15:05 utc | 269

I think a step in the right direction to sorting out this disaster would be to get NATO membership back to what it was in like 1946.

I agree with that, given that NATO was established in 1949.

Posted by: Norwegian | May 21 2025 15:34 utc | 277

The expansion of NATO into eastern Europe still can be considered to be a defensive move to some extent.
Posted by: WMG | May 21 2025 11:18 utc | 233
The very EXISTENCE of NATO after the wall fell was an offensive move.

Posted by: TJandTheBear | May 21 2025 15:37 utc | 278

So, what is the next false flag? Some Banderites want to remove the discredited Zelensky and arrange for the “russians” to take him out?

Posted by: Norwegian | May 21 2025 15:43 utc | 279

As the American author and candidate Patrick J. Buchanan stated in 1990, expanded NATO membership was being used by the neo cons to permanently box in Russia and the Russian allies.
He correctly predicted 35 years ago that Russia would not allow itself to be in the neo con box, and that it would eventually react, which is has.
NATO was absolutely attempting to use the Ukraine province as a final chess piece to hem in Russia.
NATO did that same thing with Serbia, admitting their arch all time enemy Croatia, and also admitting Albania, North Macedonia, and Montenegro, and now attempting to admit the neo con fascist Kosovo (forceably severed by NATO from Serbia) and Brosniakia (governed of course by jihadiis, Croatian fascists and a NATO generalissimo) too.
Now we have both Putin and Dodik standing up to fight the neo con NATO group, and in fact MI6 and the CIA are now attempting to overthrow the government of both the Serbian Republic of Bosnia and the Serb Republic itself(using their preferred method of color revolution ala Kieve 2014), even as its plans for incorporating the Ukraine into the neo con universe is collapsing before their very eyes.
There will no ceasefire in the Ukraine until Russia reaches Odessa, and consolidates itself the entire east side of the Dnieper…….and Dodik merges with Serbia itself, and recovers the Krajina and Kosovo homelands.

Posted by: tobias cole | May 21 2025 15:47 utc | 280

Jo @270: “just imagine if Jo Biden had just been well enough to win the election where would we be now???? Jill and Hunter and Kamal trio……uuuuyrrrrgghhhhhhhh”
American troops officially derployed to 404? Or maybe swapping nukes with Russia? What we can say for certain is that the PotUS would then not be undermining the Establishment narratives like Trump does (ex: “Why would Putin go to Istanbul? I’m not going to be there.”). This is driving the TDS brain damage people nuts because it is central to their arrogance and mistaken sense of superiority that Trump not be a better human being than themselves or their preferred political champions (Biden/Harris). Just note how gleeful some of the TDS people are over the potential of Israel attacking Iran as then they think it would mean it wasn’t just their “team” that has the proven record of starting needless wars. As well, look at how desperately they cling to the narrative that Trump ordered the CIA’s assassination of General Soleimani, even though everyone knows the CIA was completely rogue during Trump’s first term (and still largely is). The poor TDS brain damage victims are grasping at even the flimsiest of straws to carry the weight of their conviction that Trump is the bad guy and they are the good guys. The alternative is just unbearable for them.
Trump Derangement Syndrome is truly a tragic disorder to have been afflicted with.

Posted by: William Gruff | May 21 2025 15:53 utc | 281

rk | May 21 2025 15:02 utc | 268
“more ships will be stolen or sunk, Zakharova and Medvedev will be outraged on twitter and that’s it.”
Perhaps Putin isn’t doing enough, is weak and should be overthrown? (© Shadowbanned 2024)

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | May 21 2025 15:53 utc | 282

Dnipropetrovsk border is reached.

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | May 21 2025 15:58 utc | 283

Alexander Mercurious has argued that Russia would rather deal with the US than lots of different countries, therefore the break up of NATO is not desirable.
Posted by: Glasshopper | May 21 2025 9:45 utc | 218
ABSOLUTELY WRONG
Divide and Conquer
Total blindness to Soviet and Russian and British and US actions.

Posted by: jopalolive | May 21 2025 16:14 utc | 284

The Autopen War
Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 21 2025 14:09 utc | 262
Hence the Autopen Empire.

Posted by: Digital Spartacus | May 21 2025 16:16 utc | 285

Sorry, bit of a ramble, one of my pet topics is the shadow of legacy issues on current operational deployments, especially the differing approaches countries have taken to design doctrinal responses to their socio-economic capabilities and limitations.
As for the end state of this conflict, it all depends on if the real objectives of both Russia and the US are those in the headlines, which is something I doubt. If Trump pulls off his counter-revolution then the entire security structure of the West could be upended as the cause of multi-generational ‘conflicts’ are finally exorcised, if he fails, we’re screwed.
Posted by: Milites | May 20 2025 22:12 utc | 125
Feel free to ramble
Big Serge as a new piece with a section that fits right in
“generally sort into two different categories. The first comprises those technical and operational forms which were disappointments…. These were expected to be central elements of the naval war which exerted a decisive influence on the overall trend of the conflict, only to fail to live up to lofty prewar expectations. The second category consists of surprises: new operational tasks which received very little energy and investment in the prewar military buildup, only to assert unexpected potency and importance in wartime”
BTW this latest post presents a lot of situations that rhyme with present ones
https://bigserge.substack.com/p/the-great-war-at-sea-blockade-and

Posted by: Newbie | May 21 2025 16:38 utc | 286

@281
We could get MAD out of TDS

Posted by: paddy | May 21 2025 16:52 utc | 287

Posted by: Digital Spartacus | May 21 2025 16:16 utc | 285
RE: the Autopen Empire
Hilarious-!
And—
Posted by: Jo | May 21 2025 15:10 utc | 270
Posted by: ostrr | May 21 2025 15:13 utc | 271
Posted by: Newbie | May 21 2025 15:26 utc | 274
Posted by: tobias cole | May 21 2025 15:31 utc | 276
RE: the Autopen Hegemon
<< Media members who now are profiting off tell-all books were complicit in not calling A Thing A Thing back when *The* Thing—-Joe’s obvious mental decline—was relevant & dangerous. Evidence of Joe’s cognitive decline had manifested all the way back in 2015, when his sister Val, hoping he would not run for president, spoke of “Joe’s dementia.” 72% of the country, ordinary Americans, when polled by CNN in mid-2023, said Joe’s acuity issues made him unfit to serve as president. Between October 2023 and the disastrous June 2024 debate w/ DJT, Joe was quarantined from his Cabinet---meaning the Cabinet never met. Think of the momentous events happening during that period, especially the rapid-onset of Bibi's Dresdenization of Gaza and also the Battle of Avdiivka, which pivoted the SMO into a singularly robust period. No Cabinet meetings during that. In the final Cabinet media, Dr Jill chaired it. The media’s efforts to push as ‘emerging conventional wisdom’ now that Joe had entered a steep decline in 2023 ignore the fact that voters had come to a different conclusion far far earlier — and were summarily ignored by Democratic politicians, who had plenty of time to act on the obvious public spectacle and did not. Dem pols were perfectly willing to push the POTUS potato across the finish line in 2024 and then strengthen the Autopen Hegemony from the shadows.

Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 21 2025 16:55 utc | 288

Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 21 2025 16:55 utc | 288
RE: errata
<< final Cabinet "meeting," not final Cabinet "media." ( my autopen slipped )

Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 21 2025 16:57 utc | 289

There will no ceasefire in the Ukraine until Russia reaches Odessa, and consolidates itself the entire east side of the Dnieper…….and Dodik merges with Serbia itself, and recovers the Krajina and Kosovo homelands.
Posted by: tobias cole | May 21 2025 15:47 utc | 280
Martin Armstrong’s “Socrates” system is predicting that Ukraine will cease to exist as a sovereign nation.

Posted by: TJandTheBear | May 21 2025 16:58 utc | 290

@271
Trump has continued Biden’s war, sending arms, US humans in country and real time targeting to Kiev.
He continues his uniparty war making.

Posted by: paddy | May 21 2025 17:01 utc | 291

paddy @287: “We could get MAD out of TDS”
Many TDS victims certainly do seem to see Trump as a greater threat than Russian nukes, so it is a concern.

Posted by: William Gruff | May 21 2025 17:07 utc | 292

@ I recall seeing a video compiled by Matt Orfalea of a seemingly endless stream of pundits praising the Presidential Vegetable as “sharp as a tack”—seven minutes of repetitions of the phrase.

Posted by: malenkov | May 21 2025 17:16 utc | 293

Many TDS victims certainly do seem to see Trump as a greater threat than Russian nukes, so it is a concern.
Posted by: William Gruff | May 21 2025 17:07 utc | 292
_______
Well, the threat of Russian nukes is precisely zero provided we don’t provoke Russia into using them. I don’t see how the threat of nukes by the current POTUS could go below zero, although he’s evinced no sign of wanting to use them either. Well, maybe on Iran.

Posted by: malenkov | May 21 2025 17:20 utc | 294

https://www.flightradar24.com/BAF81/3a6feb6b
Belgian Air Force Dassault 7X leaves Rzsezow, presumably for Brussels.
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/oo-fae
It’s also been to Inverness and back today. UK special forces on board or Ukrainian?

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | May 21 2025 17:21 utc | 295

and Dodik merges with Serbia itself, and recovers the Krajina and Kosovo homelands.
Posted by: tobias cole
More war in yugoslavia won’t do anyone good. a bad peace is better than a good war my friend
BTW Kosovo and Metohija is alresdy part of Serbia UNSCR 1244 locks that question in. NATO refuses to accept 1244 but, the constellation of forces is rapidly changing. Krajina and the Orthodox living in Croatia are protected by the various EU national minority safeguards – seats in oarliament, ethnic schools, etc.etc.. a ethnic Serb is the President of Croatia, the mayor of Zagreb is also a ethnic Serb. 😱
SFSN

Posted by: Exile | May 21 2025 17:27 utc | 296

Posted by: Konami | May 21 2025 0:17 utc | 160
Any empire thar fields cataphract camels is doing well in my book, but I take your point, all human constructs have the seeds of their destruction sown, it’s just that some last longer than others, and in the case of the Soviet Union a good third of its time was marked by an increasing decline.
Given that the regime largely treated its citizens as simple statistics, and treated them accordingly, I don’t think it was an inculcated sense of humanitarianism but a sense of exhaustion, that led to a relatively peaceful draw-down, I say relatively, because suppressed ethnic border conflicts erupted when Communism died.
Posted by: Suresh | May 21 2025 0:53 utc | 165
The purpose of AD is to protect what they guard from aerial attack, shooting down aircraft is a bonus, Western AD has proved effective at the former, hence Russian CAS platforms cannot attack using conventional tactics, and Russia soon developed guided bomb kits. There’s audio of an Su-34? crew being targeted by a Patriot, I doubt he’d agree with your analysis, as to the missiles efficacy.
Posted by: Barrel Brown | May 21 2025 1:07 utc | 168
I think it was the recent conflict, but if he was referring to Yemen he actually made my point, from a few days back. The Saudi army is abysmal because its tribal structure is immiscible with traditional Western soldiering, leading to a deeply corrupted and incompetent officer corps and a tradition of military incompetence that is tier one in the Arab world, which is saying something.
Posted by: TJandTheBear | May 21 2025 1:49 utc | 174
Proof of knowledge should be evinced, not stated.
Posted by: Kay | May 21 2025 2:50 utc | 184
Posted by: Kay | May 21 2025 3:15 utc | 187
The former disproves the latter: hint, I think Putin possibly understands a bit more than you do about the situation Trump faces, or the capabilities at his command.
Posted by: Barrel Brown | May 21 2025 3:43 utc | 190
The change in the Western trajectory, toward Ukraine, was more driven by the events of Nov 5th, ‘24 not Nov 21st, I think you’ll find.

Posted by: Milites | May 21 2025 17:32 utc | 297

malenkov @294
Perhaps I should clarify: Many TDS victims seem to see the Russian use of nukes as preferable to Trump’s continued presidency.

Posted by: William Gruff | May 21 2025 17:36 utc | 298

Posted by: malenkov | May 21 2025 17:16 utc | 293
RE: “sharp as a tack” repeated ad nauseum
<< As in comments coming out of Brussels or Kiev or published in the Regime Media about the war in Ukraine, certain phrases pop up again & again---like "the ball is now in Russia's court" or the completely weird and midwit attempt to customize the phrase & make it pop "the ball, as always, is in Russia's court." Those parroting the same phrases received the script in their Top Inbox for that particular news-cycle---and this is not limited obviously to the war in Ukraine but also evinced itself in how Joe's *presidents* managed Joe's decline. The schema is part of how USAID-supported NGOs operate/operated. They received the Talking Points orthodoxy and then repeated it. The Associated Press style-sheet has an entire lexicon of Atlanticist-speak for the Davos/WEF/Bilderberger/Open Society set.

Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 21 2025 17:38 utc | 299

Proof of knowledge should be evinced, not stated.
Posted by: Milites | May 21 2025 17:32 utc | 297
Once you “evince” some proof then we can debate. Until then you’re simply making unsubstantiated claims clearly disproven by history, and not necessarily recent.

Posted by: TJandTheBear | May 21 2025 17:38 utc | 300

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