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Ukraine – Negotiation Failure Plus Other Items
After some diplomatic gyrations, talks between the Russian Federation and Ukraine took place today in Istanbul, Turkey.
The Russian side had sent largely same delegation which had negotiated with Ukraine in March and April 2022. It sees the current negotiations as a continuation of the older ones, provided that new facts on the ground are taken into account.
The Ukrainian delegation was headed by its Minister of Defense Rustem Umerov. Its task was to demand an immediate ceasefire and to prepare a meeting between the presidents of the two countries.
The talks ended after just two hours.
The Russian side is said to have demanded a Ukrainian retreat from the four oblast the Russians have largely conquered and integrated into their country.
The Ukrainian side demanded an immediate ceasefire, the return of children the Russians had removed from the areas involved in military operations and the exchange of all prisoners (of which Russia has many more than Ukraine). It is obvious that Ukrainian side is not interested (yet) in making peace.
Both sides rejected the other side's demands and that was it. For now …
The balance of power in the war is clearly on the Russian side. The Ukrainian army will thus continue to bleed and lose on the battlefield.
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Another exchange of dead soldiers also occurred today. Thirty four corpse of Russia soldiers were exchanged against 909 Ukrainian ones. The rather absurd relation of 1 to 27 has been the case for quite a while. Indeed it seems that Russian side has limited the number of Ukrainian corpses it is willing to release per exchange to 909.
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There are three reasons that contribute to the strong divergence of the numbers of dead on each side.
- For the Ukrainian side the evacuation of dead (and wounded) soldiers is not a priority.
- The Russian side is moving forwards winning control of areas that the Ukrainian side has lost. This allows to collect all dead while not being under fire.
- The Ukrainian losses are in general much higher than the Russian ones.
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Lieutenant-General Andrey Mordvichev, who the Ukrainians had claimed to have killed on March 19 2022, has become the Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Ground Forces in the rank of a Colonel-General.
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The Ukrainian government 'lost' over $700 million buying arms and munitions which were never delivered or unusable.
How Ukraine lost hundreds of millions on arms deals gone wrong (archived) – Financial Times, May 16 2025
Desperate to source munitions, Kyiv paid foreign brokers for weapons and shells that were sometimes unusable or never arrived
A Financial Times investigation, based on leaked Ukrainian state documents, court filings and dozens of interviews with procurement officials, weapons dealers and manufacturers, and detectives, has uncovered how hundreds of millions of dollars Kyiv paid to foreign arms intermediaries to secure vital military equipment has gone to waste over the past three years of war.
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To date, Ukraine has paid out $770mn in advance to foreign arms brokers for weapons and ammunition that have not been delivered, according to figures from Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence, as well as documents seen by the FT.
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Most the deals have (presumably) involved large bribes.
Why Ukraine-Russia Peace Talks Are Doomed – And This War May Last for Years or Decades – A Russian Perspective
The prospect of peace between Russia and Ukraine remains elusive—and according to Russian political analyst Vitaly Ryumshin, it may not just be elusive, but structurally impossible under current conditions. With new speculation around possible ongoing Istanbul talks—reportedly pushed by Trump allies and involving both Zelensky and Putin—the mainstream narrative briefly teased a potential breakthrough. But upon closer inspection, the likelihood of a meaningful or lasting ceasefire appears near zero.
1. The Stage Is Set for Failure—Again
All eyes recently turned to Istanbul, where Russia and Ukraine were allegedly preparing to restart direct negotiations—the first since spring 2022. The hype escalated rapidly after Putin responded to a Western-backed proposal for a 30-day ceasefire. Zelensky initially rejected it, then reversed course under apparent pressure from Donald Trump—though only after attaching his own preconditions, demanding top-level talks “immediately or not at all,” while also threatening additional sanctions if Russia didn’t comply. It has played out like a Keystone Cops movie.
None of this signals genuine intent by any involved party to negotiate. Rather, it seems to be more political theatre—performative diplomacy meant to appease domestic audiences and allies, rather than advance actual de-escalation. The same disconnect that’s plagued previous efforts is firmly in place: both sides are posturing, and neither is engaging in good faith.
Russia, despite making slow but steady gains on the battlefield, is under no pressure to negotiate. Ukraine, despite weakening positions and morale, is defending it’s territory on the front lines inflicting casualties on the Russians, and continues to act ‘as if’ it holds the upper hand. Meanwhile, key NATO players like the UK, France, and Germany talk tough—insisting Russia must lose and Crimea be returned—but offer no coherent diplomatic exit ramp. While Trump continues to be an erratic blowhard of little consequence despite being a major party to this conflict-pretending he is a peacemaker instead.
Nothing will be progressed while all the parties continually deny the truth of what is involved and what has happened.
As Ryumshin points out, each side seems more focused on political optics than substance. Zelensky seeks to avoid Trump’s wrath without conceding anything meaningful. Putin sees little value in being a prop for Trump’s American Hero campaign. Neither side trusts the other, and both are only angling for short term tactical advantages rather than a sustained settlement or peace.
2. Every Ceasefire Attempt Has Failed—This One Will Too
Recent history offers little hope. A series of failed ceasefires—on naval corridors, energy strikes, and symbolic occasions like Easter and Victory Day—have all collapsed under the weight of unrealistic expectations, ambiguous language, and an absence of monitoring mechanisms. Not to mention a total lack of commitment by everyone.
Even now, the so-called “Istanbul process” lacks a formal agenda, articulated unified goals, or any enforcement structure. The result? Each party defines “peace” on its own terms. The U.S. has juggled conflicting peace tracks for months, pretending to shape a compromise from irreconcilable positions it refuses to acknowledge. But without shared definitions or political will, it’s just talk.
In Ryumshin’s words, this is not diplomacy but brinkmanship—a cynical spectacle where each side hopes the other will walk away first. And if the Istanbul talks even happen, they are almost certain to end in the same deadlock.
3. Why a Long War Is More Likely
Beyond the dysfunction of diplomacy lies a deeper structural truth: neither side appears capable of nor interested in ending the war soon. Ukraine lacks the military strength to reclaim its lost territories, and the political space to concede anything without collapsing internally. Russia, on the other hand, believes time is on its side, and is unlikely to accept any Western-brokered ceasefire that doesn’t reflect its battlefield momentum-and it’s original goals. Goals that go far beyond any ability for any government in Ukraine to provide. Ukraine cannot tell NATO or the U.S. what they must do to bring peace to this major Cold War civilisational conflict-nor how to settle nuclear arms disputes between the U.S. and Russia.
Some observers still believe a diplomatic breakthrough could be near. But for that to happen, several stars would have to align: an earth-shattering shift in U.S. leadership and policy, a recalibration of the Ukrainian strategy, and a recognition of Russia’s red lines that have been in place long before the 2022 invasion-going back to first 2014 and before that to at least 2007.
As it stands, none of that is on the horizon.
The result is a grim but necessary conclusion: a negotiated settlement is not only unlikely in the short term—it may be impossible for years. This war could drag on well into the 2030s, especially if neither side achieves a decisive advantage and Western powers remain committed to a zero-sum framework and their continued deceits.
Without significant global pressure on both sides to compromise, we are left with stalemate masquerading as strategy.
Posted by: Roger | May 17 2025 5:56 utc | 217
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