Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
May 16, 2025
Ukraine – Negotiation Failure Plus Other Items

After some diplomatic gyrations, talks between the Russian Federation and Ukraine took place today in Istanbul, Turkey.

The Russian side had sent largely same delegation which had negotiated with Ukraine in March and April 2022. It sees the current negotiations as a continuation of the older ones, provided that new facts on the ground are taken into account.

The Ukrainian delegation was headed by its Minister of Defense Rustem Umerov. Its task was to demand an immediate ceasefire and to prepare a meeting between the presidents of the two countries.

The talks ended after just two hours.

The Russian side is said to have demanded a Ukrainian retreat from the four oblast the Russians have largely conquered and integrated into their country.

The Ukrainian side demanded an immediate ceasefire, the return of children the Russians had removed from the areas involved in military operations and the exchange of all prisoners (of which Russia has many more than Ukraine). It is obvious that Ukrainian side is not interested (yet) in making peace.

Both sides rejected the other side's demands and that was it. For now …

The balance of power in the war is clearly on the Russian side. The Ukrainian army will thus continue to bleed and lose on the battlefield.

Another exchange of dead soldiers also occurred today. Thirty four corpse of Russia soldiers were exchanged against 909 Ukrainian ones. The rather absurd relation of 1 to 27 has been the case for quite a while. Indeed it seems that Russian side has limited the number of Ukrainian corpses it is willing to release per exchange to 909.


bigger

There are three reasons that contribute to the strong divergence of the numbers of dead on each side.

  • For the Ukrainian side the evacuation of dead (and wounded) soldiers is not a priority.
  • The Russian side is moving forwards winning control of areas that the Ukrainian side has lost. This allows to collect all dead while not being under fire.
  • The Ukrainian losses are in general much higher than the Russian ones.

Lieutenant-General Andrey Mordvichev, who the Ukrainians had claimed to have killed on March 19 2022, has become the Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Ground Forces in the rank of a Colonel-General.

The Ukrainian government 'lost' over $700 million buying arms and munitions which were never delivered or unusable.

How Ukraine lost hundreds of millions on arms deals gone wrong (archived) – Financial Times, May 16 2025
Desperate to source munitions, Kyiv paid foreign brokers for weapons and shells that were sometimes unusable or never arrived

A Financial Times investigation, based on leaked Ukrainian state documents, court filings and dozens of interviews with procurement officials, weapons dealers and manufacturers, and detectives, has uncovered how hundreds of millions of dollars Kyiv paid to foreign arms intermediaries to secure vital military equipment has gone to waste over the past three years of war.

To date, Ukraine has paid out $770mn in advance to foreign arms brokers for weapons and ammunition that have not been delivered, according to figures from Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence, as well as documents seen by the FT.

Most the deals have (presumably) involved large bribes.

Comments

Posted by: Jacq | May 16 2025 15:00 utc | 21
“…almost as though they are all fingers on the same hand.”
That is my take on the situation. There seems certain layers of continuity exist between all three, including: their style of millenarian/messianic/nationalist/cultist indoctrination, their training and tactical-military approach, and their ultimate funding sources.
They are all under the umbrella of the USUKIS axis of evil, but the ultimate funding likely comes from several sources. It’s basically at the nexus of a spiders web of overlapping alliances between the City of London, the BIS, Wall Street, Brussels, and the “Black Nobility”.

Posted by: Jon_in_AU | May 16 2025 19:17 utc | 101

That will help the European political class to wake up from their fever dreams of official NATO troops on the ground.
Posted by: Roger Boyd | May 16 2025 19:00 utc | 97
The coalition of the hirelings should worry about other things.
“AAmbassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker said Friday that the U.S. will begin discussions with European allies about reducing its troop presence in Europe later this year.
Speaking at a conference in Estonia, Whitaker said talks would begin after the NATO summit in The Hague. He emphasized that no decisions had been made, but discussions would occur within NATO’s formal structure.”

Posted by: Newbie | May 16 2025 19:21 utc | 102

I was watching Martin Armstrong – who predicts the End of Ukraine per some computer model. He said Zelensky can’t hold elections because he’ll lose and end up dead. Really, that’s the key point. So, we see maybe 1100 – 1500 Ukrainians killed or neutralized every day simply so that one man may keep living – Zelensky. Who points this out? Not even the Russians – which raises the question of why not?
He must be serving their purpose – not in a conspiratorial sense but simply a practical one. He is destroying Ukraine and pushing it towards demographic extinction.

Posted by: Eighthman | May 16 2025 19:21 utc | 103

FUGUP
https://x.com/bears_with/status/1923434716327211032
“In Albania today FUGUP – France, UK, Germany, Ukraine, Poland – declared victory to continue losing as Russia’s Spring Offensive accelerates westward across the Ukrainian battlefield.”

Posted by: JohnGilberts | May 16 2025 19:22 utc | 104

Posted by: Roger Boyd | May 16 2025 18:44 utc | 93
Something I have noticed about drone usage by the two sides of late is that it seems the Ukrainians only use drones to attack advancing Russian troops or positions along the line of contact, while the Russians use drones massively to attack the Ukrainian rear areas as well as near the line of contact. Perhaps the Ukrainian side has fewer drones at their disposal, cannot effectively deploy them against strong Russian EW in the rear areas, or they need to keep their operators at a safe(r) distance from the front to help their survival rate.

Posted by: the pessimist | May 16 2025 19:22 utc | 105

RE: “You can bring me a sandwich!
RF started firing when 2021 settlement was ignored, RF will cease firing only when some central points are guaranteed .
Yes, RF is presenting the minimum for cease firing , deal with it
P.S. the alternative to “negotiated settlement“ is unconditional surrender”
Posted by: Newbie | May 16 2025 16:53 utc | 62
Be happy to buy that sandwich, and a beer.
Here’s hoping you’re right …cheers 🍻maybe Ukraines “ceasefire” is Russia’s “negotiated settlement” and simply a language play .
Also possible it’s all never heard if again…

Posted by: Trubind1 | May 16 2025 19:22 utc | 106

So. If Zelenskyij and Putin are going to meet in person. They’ll have to make the piano player undergo a drug test first.

Posted by: Avtonom | May 16 2025 19:27 utc | 107

Posted by: Eighthman | May 16 2025 19:21 utc | 103
I tried to make this point here:
The problem for the Ukrainian side with any possible negotiated settlement that leaves the current government in place is that its survival is at stake. To agree to what the Russians currently put on the table will confirm for the Ukrainian population that all the bloodshed and losses over the past three years were for nothing. The nationalists will gather themselves and attempt a coup and there will likely be civil war unless they effectively seize power. If they seize power the war will continue until surrender. If they don’t accept the current terms the war will continue until surrender.
Posted by: the pessimist | May 16 2025 17:03 utc | 67

Posted by: the pessimist | May 16 2025 19:27 utc | 108

Posted by: Trubind1 | May 16 2025 15:42 utc | 37
Posted by: Sekava Seppo | May 16 2025 18:34 utc | 90
RE: What if Bob the Pope puts pressure on VVP-?
<< Bob the Pope *may* press VVP for a ceasefire... (Haven't we already *seen* that movie-?) But nonetheless Russian Forces will continue applying pressure on the battlefield. What are Pope tears when the towns & communities keep getting liberated-? "Remind me again---how many Divisions does the Pope Have-?"

Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 16 2025 19:28 utc | 109

European Political Community, or EPC, summit attended by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
“We just had a meeting with President Zelenskyy and then a phone call with **President Trump to discuss the developments in the negotiations today, and the Russian position is clearly unacceptable,” Starmer told reporters.
“As a result of that meeting with President Zelenskyy, under discussion with **President Trump, we are now closely aligning and coordinating our responses and will continue to do so,” he said.***
Shocked…

Posted by: Trubind1 | May 16 2025 19:31 utc | 110

@ the pessimist | May 16 2025 19:22 utc | 105
NATO has been unable to replicate Geran-2 drones (let alone any Lancet version) for over two years is a big factor. No long-range drone NATO cobbles together can deal with Russian AD in any meaningful capacity. Recall the 500+ drone strike a few weeks ago – NATO managed to hit literally nothing to even have a media spin with.
I suspect they are able to build a technically comparable model, but which would cost millions of dollars instead of alleged ~20k for a Geran.

Posted by: boneless | May 16 2025 19:32 utc | 111

In response to Trubind1@60,
The Russians want Ukraine and its European sponsors to elevate the term ceasefire a notch above the current empty rhetoric into a concrete proposal, which no doubt is work that they would prefer not to do. It’s unlikely that, even if they were acting in good faith, they would be able to come up with a ceasefire proposal that is minimally acceptable to both sides — the tactical and political situation makes the idea itself illogical. The parallel between the ceasefire gambit and Minsk is that, in both cases, their utility is strictly rhetorical for the European side, to create a narrative of something being done or proposed, with Moscow the one dragging its feet. Having to actually produce a hypothetical ceasefire framework complicates that utility.

Posted by: Skiffer | May 16 2025 19:37 utc | 112

Another important element is, of course, degradation of NATO AD. Originally, Russia used long-ranged drones exclusively for a combined cruise/ballistic strike to deplete/confuse AD. Now they don’t have too.
The only thing NATO achieves with a similar tactic is wasting Russian AD missile stocks. Hoping Russia will run out of surface-to-air missiles is the only thing they can do (even a banderite official said as much not so long ago about their drone strike ineffectiveness).

Posted by: boneless | May 16 2025 19:37 utc | 113

Re: Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 16 2025 19:28 utc | 109
Agree. We’ve seen all the movies, short films, and cameo shots of these idiots now for 10 years.
North Koreas style of dealing with the “West”, is looking more and more like a model that needs replicating globally…
(Please no anti-North Korean responses), it’s just an example of the need to blow off the West, and make them unimportant. Especially when you are as interlinked as Russia is with other nations.

Posted by: Trubind1 | May 16 2025 19:38 utc | 114

^ NATO is simply unable to provide literal thousands of cruise missiles to banderastan to emulate Russian air-strike tactics, nor can they guarantee protection of those launch platforms.

Posted by: boneless | May 16 2025 19:40 utc | 115

That’d be Mykolaev, Odessa, Kharkov and Sumy.
Posted by: xor | May 16 2025 18:44 utc | 91
According to Telegram (either “DD Geopolitics” or “Intel Slava”) I read one of the oblasts would be Dnepropetrovsk.

Posted by: NoName | May 16 2025 19:42 utc | 116

“…it seems that Russian side has limited the number of Ukrainian corpses it is willing to release…”
according info from ukrainian TG, there’s limit on UA side, they only have 9 mobile morgue refrigerators, each for 101 corpses max.

Posted by: sh0tek | May 16 2025 19:46 utc | 117

RE: Posted by: Skiffer | May 16 2025 19:37 utc | 112
Agreed. It’s why the dirt never should have been cracked.
Russia not talking to anyone for 3 years, was good for Russia.
Why? Because it changes nothing on the battlefield, nothing in the schemes, ploys and plots of the West, brings back attention to Ukraine where like Gaza it was getting buried, and will soon follow with an artist version of the MOA FFs complete with mass civilians to come.
Nevertheless, they’re far from “capitulating”…

Posted by: Trubind1 | May 16 2025 19:48 utc | 118

Pope Leo XIV is Augustinian.
St Augustine a Doctor of the Roman church wrote Just War doctrine in time for Christians to fight for western Rome.
The pope might consider the U.S.’ proxy support for both Kiev and Tel Aviv breaks that doctrine.

Posted by: paddy | May 16 2025 19:53 utc | 119

Talks, but no ceasefire. I’m putting the ‘W’ on VVP’s side of the balance sheet.
Mirroring how the Russian Forces shape the battlefield, VVP shaped the format for the Istanbul talks, withstood ultimatums from Zelensky and his curators—and VVP sent his preferred team, according to his own composition.
The Russian diplomatic team laid out their stipulations for a potential ceasefire and also the requirements for buffer zones near Sumy & Kharkov—so cards on the table.
Going in to June 2025, matters are immeasurably better than they were going in to June 2024, largely because the Russian military has robustly positioned the diplomatic sector w/ convincing victories.
The Russian military has strongly stood up diplomacy—-reinforced and guaranteed it—by succeeding so valorously on the battlefield.
Ongoing jaw-jaw, if there is any, will follow characteristically along the lines VVP selects. He and Russia do not need any help in winning.
In contrast, Zelensky and his curators are in a hole.
They dawdled on their way to Istanbul, pulled some stunts, hurled insults & invective, but left w/ little to show.
Plus, Zelensky and his curators are still in a hole.
Glancing down at the balance sheet, I see another couple of ‘W’s on VVP’s side of the ledger.

Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 16 2025 19:56 utc | 120

reply to 108
Maybe we’ve missed this…..if Russia was in any real trouble, they’d send an Orestnik to kill Zelensky. Then, a civil war would likely develop but that would offer more possibilites for Russia than if Zelensky keeps living.

Posted by: Eighthman | May 16 2025 20:01 utc | 121

According to Telegram (either “DD Geopolitics” or “Intel Slava”) I read one of the oblasts would be Dnepropetrovsk.
Posted by: NoName | May 16 2025 19:42 utc | 116
They mentioned only seven oblasts. Addditional minimum is Odessa. Putin cannot do without!
Dnepropetrovsk and Pavlograd cannot hold, after Odessa and Nikolajev/Krivoy Rog moved to the Russian side. But…
IMHO it makes sense to look at the military decisions from WWII. So the order would be Sumy, Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk, and then south towards Odessa.

Posted by: MorePain4Cakes | May 16 2025 20:04 utc | 122

trump praises iranian drones and wants to make some himself
imitation and flattery and all that.

Posted by: Justpassinby | May 16 2025 20:07 utc | 123

In response to Trubind1@118,
I don’t think it costs the Russians anything to talk, and when you can get the other side to talk back, they ultimately end up exposing themselves. Tell people you want world peace and everyone agrees. Describe how you intend to bring it about, and even your closest friends will call you an idiot. The EU knows that fact intimately, as all their coalition meetings turn into a shitshow where nothing concrete is ever agreed and someone always breaks ranks. That’s where the European ceasefire demand is at the current stage — they’re even talking about unconditional ceasefire, which is great for when they inevitably present their own conditions. So I say, keep them talking. Even if their mass media covers for them at home, the adverse effect that it has on the standard for rationality in reporting is starting to turn even certified idiots and sheeple against the narrative.

Posted by: Skiffer | May 16 2025 20:12 utc | 124

Doesn’t want to end the war
Ukraine
NATO
Russia
American Senate Neocons

Wants to end the war
Trump (sorta, kinda, maybe)

The rest is drama for public consumption.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 16 2025 20:12 utc | 125

Posted by: Justpassinby | May 16 2025 20:07 utc | 123
#####
The irony is that Iranian national hero, Soleimani, was assassinated by a drone.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 16 2025 20:14 utc | 126

Russia (including Donbass) has a 5x bigger population than Ukraine. So still elite troops are fighting on Russian side while Ukraine has to fight with forcibly recruited disabled and pensioneers since their elite troops are basically exhausted due to simple math. So the casualty difference is not surprising and will even increase.

Posted by: xblob | May 16 2025 20:18 utc | 127

reply to 108
Maybe we’ve missed this…..if Russia was in any real trouble, they’d send an Orestnik to kill Zelensky. Then, a civil war would likely develop but that would offer more possibilites for Russia than if Zelensky keeps living.
Posted by: Eighthman | May 16 2025 20:01 utc | 121
Letting Zelensky live is to Russia’s and SMO’s benefit. He might be a puppet but he regularly defies his masters and doesn’t take their advice. His refusal to retreat from meat grinders like Bakhmut and Avdeevka, led to losses of valuable troops and equipement, same case with the 2023 counteroffensive where he split the forces making the main attack that was supposed to reach Melitopol through Tokmak ineffective. He also had a beef with Zaluzhny, who wouldn’t waste troops and equipment to defend areas already being lost, that led to replacing him with Syrsky who is infamous for getting into boilers or encirclements since 2014 and has no issue with wasting valuable troops. Killing Zelensky and making him into a martyr would only be to Russia’s disadvantage. They can just wait until it gets so bad his own people or handlers are going to dispose of him.

Posted by: 5thcolumn | May 16 2025 20:21 utc | 128

You act as if Russian people are stupid and wouldn’t understand this as a Minsk 3.
No one in Russia or this site cares about the “media”.
Russia’s own government is saying “ceasefire”.
Posted by: Trubind1 | May 16 2025 15:21 utc | 27

And one strawman fallacy.
Fuck off bastard with your lies! There is no ceasefire, there is no Minsk 3. They are only inside your deranged mind.
The Russians are not stupid, you are. A completely stupid troll.

Posted by: Naive | May 16 2025 20:28 utc | 129

Killing Trump, Bibi, Zelensky, etc, changes nothing.
Any of these leaders could have a natural death at any time.
There are processes and hierarchies in place in such an event.
No one great man is directing all of the world’s machinations.
Keep liquidating NATO and Ukrainian officers/trainers who take years and years to replace.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 16 2025 20:47 utc | 130

Posted by: sh0tek | May 16 2025 19:46 utc | 117
Thanks. Good explanation. They could raise that number of trucks easily but probably don’t want to, to save costs. As in not wanting to pay the surviving family members the monthly due payments.

Posted by: xor | May 16 2025 20:48 utc | 131

Posted by: 5thcolumn | May 16 2025 20:21 utc | 128
Russia’s long standing policy has been not to (at least overtly) interfere with Ukrainian politics. While there have been numerous accusations from the west stretching back to at least 2004 with Viktor Ushenko’s poisoning and the contested election, I don’t believe any of these claims has been proven. While there were always pro-Russian politicians in Ukraine this simply reflected demographic, political, and economic realities. Russia was Ukraine’s main trading partner, and until 2014 had a free trade agreement with Ukraine. Numerous Ukrainians worked in Russia. The ‘gas wars’ were simply Russia insisting that Ukraine uphold its signed contractual obligations and Ukraine trying to claim that the evil Russians were withholding gas from its European customers. IMO Russia’s main fault during this period was simply accepting the corrupt status quo in Ukraine and allowing their own business class to do what it wanted wrt Ukrainian dealings. This policy fed Ukrainian unhappiness with Russia and the (not unfounded) notion that Russia was in league with corrupt Ukrainian politicians. In their defense Russia was trying to put its own house in order during this period and had not the energy to meaningfully address these issues, but the ‘hands off’ policy was used in Ukraine to fuel anti Russian sentiment.
From what I can see this policy has not changed during the SMO. Russia has not responded to Ukrainian assassinations of Russian political and military leaders in kind. While they have targeted military command centers associated with the Ukrainian military effort they have not targeted the political leadership. I believe this policy helps Russia in the long term. Zelensky can stew in his own soup, and his unconstitutional extension of his term is a Ukrainian issue and must be addressed by Ukrainians. The Russians will not target him.

Posted by: the pessimist | May 16 2025 21:30 utc | 132

Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 16 2025 20:47 utc | 130
Absolutely
The whole idea that assassinating leader X will change things is silly. There is always a replacement who may be worse or very unpredictable.
Geography, resources, economics, military power and soft power (ie diplomacy) not a “great man” – at least they do 95% of the time.

Posted by: watcher | May 16 2025 21:42 utc | 133

Zelensky can stew in his own soup, and his unconstitutional extension of his term is a Ukrainian issue and must be addressed by Ukrainians. The Russians will not target him.

Posted by: the pessimist | May 16 2025 21:30 utc | 132
Agreed, Zelly is in far greater danger from the swirling maelstrom of corrupt self-interests that are benefiting from the financial skim scam that is Ukraine.
~~~
As for the theme of the thread, from the Russian perspective the Istanbul “peace talks” haven’t been a failure, as the Russian side came into the talks with no expectation of success.
The de-briefing in Moscow will probably be along the lines of “Nope, they still don’t understand the need to deal with the root causes, they have no real clue about taking account of the facts on the ground. We are a long way away from having a worthwhile direct meeting between the President of the Federation and Mr. Trump.”
And actually, the BBC reporting that I have been inflicted with is surprisingly neutral in tone, highlighting the agreement to exchange PoW’s, but skating over any overall context of ‘success’ or ‘failure’.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 16 2025 21:50 utc | 134

DPA frontline changes report: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ao7koY7mqck
Wyatt says RFA gained 27+ kmsq. More than half of this is from a pretty tentative geolocation. At 7:30 minutes he discusses it. It’s not guys waving a flag. It’s UFA drones bombing abandoned motorcyles of the RFA.
The thing is this is a huge pocket that he is converting. And arguably it is “gray zone”. I mean neither side can control those empty fields unless they hold positions in both the east and the west. While I understand Wyatt’s concerns about gray zone, it is in reality a drone playground that neither army can really “control”. So being inflexible about “no gray zone”, means we get these questionable geolocation “confirmed” RFA captures. The same thing happened with a thunder run that everyone knew had failed months before Vuhledar fell.
The weird thing is Wyatt actually sort of DOES have a gray zone, given he has “two maps”.
And then, I honestly don’t know if or how much he double counts when there is a confirmation of a claim.
Add onto that, that I can’t actually go to the map and click on it and get figures for daily extent and the like (including old days). Instead there’s just “YT content” that I’m supposed to watch…and it is very hard to compare it to day before or do month long analyses.
It’s not even so much if he uses the most aggressive (pro RFA) claims or the opposite. As long as he did one or the other, all the time, I could make sense of his daily numbers. But as it is, it’s a dog’s breakfast, given that we have some amount of double counting going on.

Posted by: Anonymous | May 16 2025 22:06 utc | 135

In contrast, look at this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KxDXtEzPHL0
It’s not the presenter or his points. Ignore that…I know he is pro UFA, that’s not even my point.
But look at how USABLE the DS map is. He shows a lot of how you can click on things and do analysis. (And he doesn’t even show everything…there’s actually a day by day territory total that you can click a button to get…not Wyatt style polygon addition stuff.)
IF there were a pro RFA map that was usable, I would try it out. I really think, you get very similar answers over long periods of time, because otherwise the maps would diverge with one showing RFA in Kiev by now. And we don’t get that…front is basically the same and has been for months. But I don’t know of any other map that is as usable as DS (especially for kmsq estimates). It’s not even a pro or anti RFA thing…but a quality of the tool thing.

Posted by: Anonymous | May 16 2025 22:12 utc | 136

The whole idea that assassinating leader X will change things is silly. There is always a replacement who may be worse or very unpredictable.
Posted by: watcher | May 16 2025 21:42 utc | 133

You are wrong on one point: the assassinations of JFK and later of RFK changed everything. The culprits are still in power, even Trump.

Posted by: Naive | May 16 2025 22:13 utc | 137

Utilities inflation isn’t attritional, is it?

In Ukraine, the cost of utilities has changed in 2025. This is especially true for electricity
This is reported by the State Statistics Service, reports RegioNews .
During the year, prices for utilities increased by an average of 20.1% in Ukraine. The highest increase in the cost of electricity increased by 63%. Other services have also become more expensive:
maintenance of apartment buildings-by 18.9%%;
household waste removal-by 10.7%%;
repair and maintenance of housing stock – by 3.3%%;
water supply-by 0.7%%;
water disposal-by 0.6%.

https://regionews.ua/ukr/news/ukraine/1747407074-v-ukrayini-podorozhchali-komunalni-poslugi-skilki-teper-potribno-platiti-za-svitlo-ta-vodu (via translation add-on.)
They’ll fit right in with EU membership…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 16 2025 22:19 utc | 138

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 16 2025 22:19 utc | 138
If it is not territorial according to the lying anonymous troll it does not count.
So.. it does not count. Or…?

Posted by: Naive | May 16 2025 22:22 utc | 139

Honestly, I can’t tell if posters like Turbind1 don’t understand the language, symbolism and signals of international diplomacy or if they’re being purposefully obtuse.
It was like a 2 hour meeting. For purposes like this, 2 hours is essentially “hello, are we going to meet again?” And that’s what the after statements amount to as well. Beyond a prisoner exchange, nothing was concluded and even the prisoner exchange is light on the necessary details. The Russian statement on a ceasefire was clear. Both sides will determine how they view a potential ceasefire and maybe they’ll get together to compare notes.
Russia will say the same thing it has been saying. Leave the 4 oblasts and demilitarize the Russian border and maybe there can be a ceasefire. It can say that because Zelensky can’t agree to it, so he won’t. He’ll be shot by his own people if he agrees to that. Kiev will say stop advancing across the line of contact, stop bombing us, etc for the next thirty days. And Russia will say, “who’s going to make us?” Because the four oblasts are legally part of Russia now, so Putin can’t stop until that’s achieved.
One side desperately needs a ceasefire. It wouldn’t be asking for one if it didn’t. The other side doesn’t need a ceasefire so it can be magnanimous and negotiate patiently. Nobody outside of Europe is actually calling for anything other than what they’ve called for all along: an end to the conflict. But this is in the most banal and general diplomatic terms. They are not serious statements. Just like the western call for peace isn’t serious. If it was, then those countries would be offering something like an end to military aid. If non-western countries weee serious they would be threatening relations with Russia.

Posted by: Lex | May 16 2025 22:27 utc | 140

Posted by: JohnGilberts | May 16 2025 19:22 utc | 104
In that photo, it looks like Macron is breaking up the blow he brought on the train.
Z boy is just chompin’ at the bit for a rail. “Yo, I got five on it.”
Hell, I want one now!

Posted by: lex talionis | May 16 2025 22:29 utc | 141

Its pretty obvious to me that nothing short of complete demolition of Ukraine will stop this war as long as the current military and civilian leadership is in place. Destruction on the order of Germany after WW II.
It took that to erase the civilian and military leadership in Germany and that was with a good portion of the officer core wanting Hitler gone. Ukraines officer core is far more hardcore.

Posted by: circumspect | May 16 2025 22:30 utc | 142

…..one showing RFA in Kiev by now.
Posted by: Anonymous | May 16 2025 22:12 utc | 136
Mr Anonymouse, Kiev is not and never has been the direction of travel for the Russians. But I guess you know this. Anyway, seeing as you’re a accomplished mathematician/expert in prediction of the length of time it will take to conquer, take or retake land, then please give us the benefit of a prediction as to when the Kiev regime will retake Crimea.

Posted by: HERMIUS | May 16 2025 22:31 utc | 143

Posted by: Skiffer | May 16 2025 20:12 utc | 124
RE: when you get the adversary to talk, they expose themselves
<< The Euro-led Ukrainian camp looked lost at sea all week, rank amateurs in comparison to Russia's team, whether at the executive level or at the diplomatic level. It is glaringly obvious who the serious-minded participants are in war negotiations. If talks are necessary *going forward* I can imagine we will see the same tomfoolery. At some point one must say that "Enough is enough." And then the professionals have to commandeer the proceedings. As on the battlefield, so also in the halls of diplomacy: Russia, claim your Victor's Peace.

Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 16 2025 22:33 utc | 144

@125
Trump is not for peace. He is an extender of Obama and Biden beholding to neocons and the likes of Lindsey Graham.
If he was concerned about Slavs killing each other he would stop the arms, ground NATO reconnaissance, shutdown Kievs satellite receivers and close shop in Kiev!
He is all for a new Minsk scam to take another go at colonizing Russia in Vance’s term.
Shorter Trump is Biden who remembers what he had for lunch, most of the time.
Kiev will fight to its last conscript.

Posted by: paddy | May 16 2025 22:33 utc | 145

UK trying to break up the process says Rus Embassy London…and EU finding any scurious reason to refute..Tusk says we share your pain Z still suport you to EU(not seen real evidence of that for me), Poldyak says no surrender…etc etc..still trying to make USA back Ukraine at all costs..
European leaders unhappy with Russia-Ukraine talks
▪️British Prime Minister Starmer said that Russia’s position in the negotiations is “unacceptable” and he accuses Moscow of delaying the ceasefire.
▪️French President Macron said that Russia ignored the demands of the US, Ukraine and Europe for a ceasefire.
▪️Polish Prime Minister Tusk said that the Kremlin refused to conduct dialogue with the participation of the United States and put forward unacceptable conditions.
▪️Italian Prime Minister Meloni called for a ceasefire and security guarantees for Ukraine.
▪️German Chancellor Merz accused Moscow of disrupting the talks, but noted that the talks had produced “a very small, but first positive signal.”
▪️It is worth noting that the statements of the Russian and Ukrainian delegations following the negotiations were constructive, and the parties did not voice any mutual accusations.
Do these guys know what their hand is? Not sure what intelligence these guys are getting because their position is only getting worse every month.
@Slavyangrad

Posted by: Jo | May 16 2025 22:37 utc | 146

Posted by: Naive | May 16 2025 22:22 utc | 139
Well, I don’t know, I’m trying to remember the disclaimer I posted once, it was something like:

I am not a Chartered Professional Attritionist. I am not licensed to sell products that cause attrition, nor to dispense attritional advice.
Any similarity between the Ukrainian quagmire of corruption/economic collapse, and attrition is purely coincidental and should not be taken as a guarantee of product performance

Serving Suggestion

Only Chartered Practitioners of Attrition should handle it, it can be very dangerous to ignore its widespread side-effects

As best as I can remember…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 16 2025 22:41 utc | 147

You are wrong on one point: the assassinations of JFK and later of RFK changed everything. The culprits are still in power, even Trump.
Posted by: Naive | May 16 2025 22:13 utc | 137
########
Change everything for whom?
You may think you’re the “good guy,” but the “bad guys” also think they are the good guys even as they commit atrocities.
In games of power, only the winner can call themselves the good guy. I think that applies to the Kennedy murders. The Kennedy murderers have “won” in a sense, wouldn’t you agree?

Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 16 2025 22:46 utc | 148

I’ve finished “Sergey Lavrov’s Remarks & Media Answers at the Diplomatic Club, Moscow, 15 May”, which does plow new ground while also replowing much of what’s been explained many times about the SMO and Russia’s negotiating position.

Posted by: karlof1 | May 16 2025 22:49 utc | 149

Posted by: Jo | May 16 2025 22:37 utc | 146
RE: they can only whinge
<< When a military runs out of ammo, it cannot any longer prosecute its war. Zelensky and his curators have run aground. Led by VVP, Russia refused to bite on any dangling tasty possibilities, like a ceasefire, which never would have appealed to Russia in the least, who is, by the way winning on the battlefield. So Russia always, convincingly, held the upper hand going into Istanbul. Zelensky and his curators have no way to re-load. Not only because they lack armaments but because they have no foundational strength on which to attempt a reload. They are tapped out. If I know this, Russia knows this. At this point Zelensky and his curators can only whinge LOUDLY and play the Victim Card. I don't see this as projecting strength. Meanwhile, the Russian Forces continue to liberate villages & communities on the LOC.

Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 16 2025 22:50 utc | 150

@137
The culprits were in control. JFK and RFK were potential threats.
George Marshall crossed the culprits by refusing to recommend to Truman to be dragged in the corrupt mud with Chiang Kai Shek.
The great hero of WWII was McCarty’ed.
The well informed American would have had nothing to do with any of the wars since 1945.

Posted by: paddy | May 16 2025 23:08 utc | 151

Change everything for whom?
Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 16 2025 22:46 utc | 148

First of all for the Vietnamese who lost their life and later for all who lost their life because of the yankee imperialism, be it in Yugoslavia, Irak, Syria, Libya, etc. and now in Ukraine.
Your tirade on good guys bad guys is typical of the absence of morality, when strength makes right. Typical way of thinking of the west, especially the yankees and the ukronazis. Only now the latter are whining because they are not the strongest and they are losing.
Read Nietzsche, you should love it.

Posted by: Naive | May 16 2025 23:11 utc | 152

Ukraine should offer something Russia cannot get by continuing the war for something Ukraine cannot get by continuing the war.
Throughout history, this is usually what negotiation is meant to be, even with surrender (the winning side get to lower the cost of manpower and other resources (including time) compared to a fight to death, and may even get a subordinate faction, which is useful to some extent; while the losing side, or at least the leaders of the losing side and their close people, get to have more people survive).
What does Ukraine even offer to Russia? offering that peace would save further loss of Russian lives? at what cost? If Russia agree to such ridiculous offer, the mere aspect of showing weakness would in long run cost them more lives than the further loss of Russian lives in this war. And it is also a fact that the further loss of Russian lives is indeed a reasonable price to pay for what Russia get to keep from this war (compare to the ridiculous demand of Ukraine).

Posted by: Lazy Perfectionist | May 16 2025 23:14 utc | 153

The two sides in this conflict are completely incompatible.
The Russians reject the 30-day ceasefire proposal, unless it involves Ukraine withdrawing from the 4 oblasts which Russia has already included in the Russian Federation via referenda.
Although both parties have diametrically-opposed views, they can nonetheless agree on basics, like the exchange of POWs or, in the case of Ukraine, hostages. That in itself is a good.
Meanwhile, Russian Forces continue to run-the-table on the battlefield, liberating village after village. Russia’s LOC strength will continue to govern matters going forward.
Ultimately, DJT will capitulate to VVP in Moscow.
Nota Bene: a capitulation does not mean *defeat* regarding The Directive.
It is merely the case that The Directive will languish a bit, step back and reconfigure itself. As long as there is *one* centimeter of soil that someone can call Ukraine, then that solo centimeter will be *fortified* in the future as a weapon to use against Russia.
But this can happen in 5 years… It can happen in 10 years…
Capitulating to Russia in the Ukraine War right now does not mean that The Directive has *capitulated.* It has just been delayed. So it’s all good.
Recall that The Directive involves curb-stomping Russia, regime-changing Russia and dismembering Russia.

Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 16 2025 23:27 utc | 154

What worries me more is Putins negotiating team is same capitulation professionals that Putin assembled for Istanbul 1 which gave up Donbass. It means that he is preparing to really bend over backwards to his esteemed Western partners this time.

Posted by: Steven P Manning | May 16 2025 23:33 utc | 155

@HERMIUS | Fri, 16 May 2025 22:31:00 GMT | 143

…..one showing RFA in Kiev by now.
Posted by: Anonymous | May 16 2025 22:12 utc | 136
Mr Anonymouse, Kiev is not and never has been the direction of travel for the Russians. But I guess you know this.

He keeps dangling those red herrings. Never mind the actual war, let’s talk about my red herring. It’s a clear logical fallacy that Mr. Anonymous/Julian uses.
the red herring is a deliberate diversion of attention with the intention of trying to abandon the original argument.
https://www.logicallyfallacious.com/logicalfallacies/Red-Herring
Argument A: Russia is winning.
Anonymous Red Herring: But why can’t Russia reach Kiev, if they can’t take Kiev, they can’t take over Ukraine and can’t win the war.
Argument A: Russia’s war objectives do not include taking Kiev or all of Ukraine. They are very limited.
Anonymous: But Russia is so slow, they’ll only take Kiev in the year 2224, so they can never win.
Argument A: Again Russia’s strategy says nothing about taking all of Ukraine (restates Russian war aims).
Anonymous: Russia is so slow, they’ll never reach Kiev, Zelensky will stay in power until 2199 and be declared the God-Emperor. Russia will lose.
Argument A: Restates original argument.
Anonymous: Restates Red Herring.
And so it goes. Best to ignore the red herring. The originator of the red herring argument’s intent is to derail, not to debate.

Posted by: James M. | May 16 2025 23:34 utc | 156

@ Steven P Manning | May 16 2025 23:33 utc | 155

The Russian delegation demanded the complete withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from 4 regions, and when the Ukrainians refused, ours stood up and declared that next time they would have to leave 5 (including Dnipropetrovsk) – Axios

Fuck off.

Posted by: boneless | May 16 2025 23:38 utc | 157

Anyway, seeing as you’re a accomplished mathematician/expert in prediction of the length of time it will take to conquer, take or retake land, then please give us the benefit of a prediction as to when the Kiev regime will retake Crimea.
Posted by: HERMIUS | May 16 2025 22:31 utc | 143
—————————————————–
There is something floating on the internet whether the temperature of hell is Exothermic or Endothermic.
Worthy of a visit. https://www.albany.edu/faculty/miesing/teaching/assess/hell.html

Posted by: Acco Hengst | May 16 2025 23:40 utc | 158

@Steven P Manning | Fri, 16 May 2025 23:33:00 GMT | 155

What worries me more is Putins negotiating team is same capitulation professionals that Putin assembled for Istanbul 1 which gave up Donbass. It means that he is preparing to really bend over backwards to his esteemed Western partners this time.

What a stupid argument. According to some reports, the Russian delegation did this:

Reportedly, the Russian delegation said that the Ukrainians need to withdraw from the four new Russian regions if they want a ceasefire. Ukrainian delegation said no. The Russian side stood up, said “Next time, it’ll be five”, and left the room.

Posted by: James M. | May 16 2025 23:41 utc | 159

@Posted by: the pessimist | May 16 2025 19:22 utc | 105
Not surprising with Russian EW capabilities getting better and better, and the Russians having the lead in fibre optic drones. Also, the Russians seem to be having a lot of success with taking out the large Ukrainian surveillance drones with their own drones, which blinds the Ukrainians to possible targets in the Russian rear.

Posted by: Roger Boyd | May 16 2025 23:44 utc | 160

Story has been making rounds that Ukrainians were outraged when Russia negotiators said that Ukrainian soldiers must leave the four new Russian regions as part of ceasefire, to which the Moscow delegation replied “Next time it will be five.”
Now, our reporter in Istanbul got to ask the Russian side how it really went down:
“We didn’t say five. We said eight.”

https://x.com/M_Simonyan/status/1923384537112789260
Despite some claiming this was a capitulation earlier in the discussion.
The Russians came to play hardball.
NAFO BTFO

Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 16 2025 23:45 utc | 161

Inadvertently, Ukraine opened the door to Russia demonstrating its professionalism in a diplomatic setting and its serious-minded approach to the negotiations in Istanbul.
The Ukrainian team did not comport itself well, in contrast, revealing its own parsimonious buffoonery.
Strangely, therefore, Ukraine gave Russia a platform on which it could shine. VVP came off as rational, calm, patient, forward-thinking, while Zelesnky was a basket case.
Ukraine’s *moves* wind up benefiting Russia. This mirrors exactly the battlefield doings over the past 2 years, if not longer. Ukraine is neither winning in the domain of the battle nor in the domain of clear-headed pragmatism.
Moreover, nothing in Ukraine’s moves over the past 18 months have created better options for it in the war.

Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 16 2025 23:50 utc | 162

Posted by: Naive | May 16 2025 23:11 utc | 152
From his own library
JFK was as committed a cold warrior as Eisenhower or LBJ, believed in the Domino theory and funnelled vast amounts of ‘munny and vepons’ and (cough) advisors to the South Vietnamese dictator. (sound familiar?).
Worse still he knowingly lied about the number of Soviet nuke warheads just to score points against Nixon while campaigning for President and before precipitating the Turkish Missile Crisis.
JFK was no fecking angel.

Posted by: ChatNPC | May 16 2025 23:50 utc | 163

Posted by: Naive | May 16 2025 23:11 utc | 152
#########
Theory of Mind doesn’t come easily to those lacking emotional control.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 16 2025 23:51 utc | 164

@ Lex | May 16 2025 22:27 utc | 140
thanks.. i agree with you..

Posted by: james | May 17 2025 0:05 utc | 165

In the end the Russians came out ahead on this whole negotiation mess, the US came out as the biggest losers as the bad cop(Europe)/good cop(Trump) strategy failed utterly.
Trump is quickly running out of runway where he will either have to ante up via actions(sanctions, weapons) or walk away from the mess. It looks like Helmer was wrong and while the oligarchs and perhaps some in Putin’s circle are willing to take a bad deal, the military as well as other institutions are not(Foreign, Intellegence, etc). While Putin may want a deal, he isn’t an idiot as if it goes wrong he will be responsible.
The makeup of the Russian negotiation team and the influence the Russian military is having on the negotiations is bad news for Trump.
Europe and Ukraine also came out as winners in the short term as they are closer to getting Trump/USA to double down.

Posted by: silverfoxes | May 17 2025 0:16 utc | 166

Turkiye was nothing but more histrionics as usual – the Zelensky-US-NATO show continues. Russia will just keep plodding along, being polite but direct, do a few more offensives and eventually Ukraine will completely collapse. Alexander Mercouris says Zelensky has capitulated and has agreed to direct talks, but Zelensky’s mind blows like the wind with the direction changing every five minutes. For NATO, the main point of Turkiye was to be able to say that Putin didn’t have the courage to come when Zelensky did. The show continues.

Posted by: George | May 17 2025 0:24 utc | 167

If the negotiations fail I fully expect Russia to escalate as the US/Europe will have no choice but to escalate also.
Putin is giving strong hints with the new ground forces commander as well as calling this conflict a war for the first time. The Russian military is asserting themselves in the Kremlin and Putin has to be careful, he keeps adding military people to national security advisor type posts centered around Shoigu.

Posted by: silverfoxes | May 17 2025 0:28 utc | 168

Posted by: Anonymous | May 17 2025 0:18 utc | 167
#######
Are you going to disappear if Russia launches a big arrow with their two reserve armies from the rear?
Also, what is currently Ukraine’s pace of advance?

Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 17 2025 0:29 utc | 169

Posted by: Anonymous | May 17 2025 0:18 utc | 167
Mr. Anonymous, instead of playing with words, you would do well to try to discover why Ukraine is losing the war, with the whole of the West supporting them with weapons, intelligence, and moral support. How come they can’t beat an army using spades to fight with and stealing chips out of washing machines to use in the manufacture of drones?
Your media continue to live in a world of fantasy, lying to their populations. “Ukraine is winning”….Yeh, course it is. LOL.
You come on MoA and say we are living in a delusion. LOL. But in reality, it is you who are delusional. You know this to be true.
We all know you are a paid NAFA troll, trying to disrupt an english speaking forum that happens to be a base of truth, independence and light in the fog of war.

Posted by: HERMIUS | May 17 2025 0:30 utc | 170

Posted by: Anonymous | May 16 2025 22:06 utc | 135
Clearly you do not follow sufficiently. First he does 2 broadcasts. One is the daily update where he includes numbers the second is the situation report which is more strategic and non numerical. You need to understand what you are looking at.
Secondly he does not include stuff in his certain captures unless he is sure, and generally waits for confirmation from Ukraine. Trouble is that Ukraine is getting slower and slower in acknowledging losses, however still Wyatt does NOT give them to Russia unless confirmed by some sort of clear geolocation, or if other geolocations/captures make it impossible for Ukraine still to be there.
He only counts once. Sorry to upset your certainties. By the way he does have a map that can show distance over time. It is buried on his main website. it is pretty good but badly located I agree. however from the dates on all the flags you can count the settlements captured over time.

Posted by: watcher | May 17 2025 0:38 utc | 171

Re Bob the Pope puts pressure on VVP
Hows about he has a test run with Bibi?
Palestine being biblical bible holy lands n all that.
Once he’s got a ruin on the board, maybe then he can “pressure” Putin

Posted by: Melaleuca | May 17 2025 0:41 utc | 172

Any tactical shifts from Europe will remain just that—temporary and superficial.
Posted by: Roger | May 17 2025 0:25 utc | 169

A couple of points: first and foremost, Ukraine is yesterday’s news.
Its primary importance was acting as a proving ground to demonstrate the MICs primary carrier and fighter assets are no longer viable.
No, as everyone knows, but not many within the existing DoD framework want to admit, the future is AI weapons platforms, whether terrain, drones or missiles.
Did anyone notice Trump’s comments about subs? To wit, they are the world’s most powerful weapons, but perhaps more importantly, he claims the US makes the best ones.
Now, take a quick moment to reflect on what he’s actually saying. What’s the best (AI) missile platform? What about carriers and (pilot operated) jets? Now, think of the massive funding and appropriations battles looming on the horizon.
It’s funny, MoA is so anti US, so anti Trump, that commenters who wish for and imagine all kinds of setbacks are at the same time seemingly ignoring what observers are saying.
There is no guarantee the USA is going to prevail; it’s going to take some effort. But to get there, America is going to have to conduct a similar soft revolution as Russia & China.
Failing that, the country is already toast. So, knowing that people who matter are well aware of these facts, the real action people should be paying attention to is not Ukraine, Palestine or Iran, but the good old USA.

Posted by: Markw | May 17 2025 0:46 utc | 173

Posted by: Anonymous | May 17 2025 0:18 utc | 167
Mr. Anonymous, instead of playing with words, you would do well to try to discover why Ukraine is losing the war, with the whole of the West supporting them with weapons, intelligence, and moral support. How come they can’t beat an army using spades to fight with and stealing chips out of washing machines to use in the manufacture of drones?
Your media continue to live in a world of fantasy, lying to their populations. “Ukraine is winning”….Yeh, course it is. LOL.
You come on MoA and say we are living in a delusion. LOL. But in reality, it is you who are delusional. You know this to be true.
We all know you are a paid NAFA troll, trying to disrupt an english speaking forum that happens to be a base of truth, independence and light in the fog of war.
Posted by: HERMIUS | May 17 2025 0:30 utc | 172
👏👏👏👏👏👏👏 WELL SAID

Posted by: Ted from Liverpool | May 17 2025 1:02 utc | 174

Hey “anonymous” you shd b grateful you have a voice on MoA. Opponents of the war in western channels get banned accused of russian propoganda

Posted by: Fyador | May 17 2025 1:10 utc | 175

Naive |152
How can he read Nietzsche when he has so much MoA posting to do

Posted by: Barstool | May 17 2025 1:10 utc | 176

People seem to be ignoring the obvious concession in these talks — a concession that came 100% from the Ukrainian side.
Remember that Zelensky had his tame “democratic” parliament pass a LAW forbidding any negotiations with Russia as long as Putin was still around. Then recently Zelensky was reported as saying that the Ukrainian LAW applied only to his subordinate weenies, and not to him — he could negotiate with Russia. Finally, Zelensky sent his weenies to Turkey to negotiate with Russia while Putin is still President.
Looks like a Ukranian LAW does not mean much. And Zelensky definitely buckled on that one.

Posted by: Gavin Longmuir | May 17 2025 1:12 utc | 177

Looks like a Ukranian LAW does not mean much. And Zelensky definitely buckled on that one.
Posted by: Gavin Longmuir | May 17 2025 1:12 utc | 179
Interesting point Mr Gavin!

Posted by: HERMIUS | May 17 2025 1:21 utc | 178

Just returned from a trawl around the internet.
I’ve been musing why TrumpTeamTrix have such tumescence for bringing kinetic conflict in Ukraine to a climax.
The answer is what it always is: money.
Mid year Biden’s last tranche of billions expires.
Trump then has to go to Congress (red begging cap in hand) and “please, sir can I have some more”.
The man is almost incapable of embarrassment. Begging Congress for money for moar war in Ukraine… a conflict he could fix in “24hours” likely will make him squirm. The media will certainly eviscerate him.
Someone posted above that Trump is running out of runway.
He is.
Putin, as his team stated, can fight for another year, two, five…20?
Trump’s got mere weeks to “git’er done”.

Posted by: Melaleuca | May 17 2025 1:34 utc | 179

https://www.newstatesman.com/international-politics/2025/05/john-fetterman-and-the-death-of-american-shame
This focuses on Fetterman but offers a small illustration of what I have strong feelings about – regarding not just the US but the whole Western world. It’s as if being deranged – and in charge – is somehow OK. Biden, Trump, Santos, but also Starmer, Macron and others.
I’m not a mental health professional but frankly, if they aren’t loudly protesting about this epidemic of psychotic thinking in leadership, then maybe they’re as useless as some cynics may believe.

Posted by: Eighthman | May 17 2025 1:44 utc | 180

I continue to point out how fittingly Trump is the face of the God Of Mammon cult.
The God Of Mammon cult is a Rules Based Order type of organization that has constrained itself for some years to a fig-leaf of Rule Of Law that is now falling away from the curtain of Might-Makes-Right patriarchal barbarism of the past 2K years.
The negotiations between Russia and Ukraine show the stark difference between those approaches and the state of our civilization war, IMO.
Barbarism or socialism is the simplest meme characterization but the barbarians use propaganda to convince the public they are doing God’s work when it is exactly the opposite.

Posted by: psychohistorian | May 17 2025 1:47 utc | 181

Why would Stalin have done this – it seems it has poisoned relations?
Posted by: jared | May 16 2025 17:09 utc | 73
As I recall, the Katyn massacre was done after the Soviets moved out, just like the Bucha massacre.
Same Empire spinning it, then as now, to boot. Gorbachev was an Empire shill, by the way.
I’ll bet Wikipedia will tell you the Russians committed the Bucha massacre, just like the TV does. Same as it ever was.
But I have no doubt that the Poles believe the bullshit. Did you know that polls show that the majority of Europeans think the US was the main fighter against the Nazis?
It’s the power of the Empire’s narrative. They are really, really good at it.

Posted by: wagelaborer | May 17 2025 1:53 utc | 182

Soooo… the Russians go to Istanbul and tell the Ukrainians to GTFO of the 4 oblasts, and if they don’t then they should be prepared to lose 4 more because Russia’s ready to go the distance. Novorossiya here we come.

Sorry, Trubind1, your posts just don’t age well and no amount of rationalization now it going to save them. Russia has repeatedly shown it holds all the cards and isn’t giving an inch. The willingness to talk never signals weakness when you’re only going there to tell them you’re kicking their collective asses and will continue to do so until they capitulate. That’s been their position since the first Istanbul talks so there’s never been any concessions let alone anything to “walk back”.

Sorry, Neofeudalfuture, Ukraine is already running out of men & weapons so you’re argument was lost before you made it.

OH, and the new RF commander of the ground forces? He’s exactly the one they want to roll up the rest of the AFU, having mopped up Mariupol and Azovstal — some of Ukraine’s best, most committed troops — early in the SMO.

Posted by: TJandTheBear | May 17 2025 2:08 utc | 183

Hey 167
Why don’t you send your sicko rubbish rant onto the families of the latest 909 corpses the RFA just sent back to your buddy Cocoa Zelenskyy-your Piano boy.

Posted by: Bones 🦴 | May 17 2025 2:15 utc | 184

Posted by: Melaleuca | May 17 2025 1:34 utc | 181
Trump allowed himself to be body slammed followed by him running off crying like a bitch while whining like one too. All on live TV.
The memory wholes around this guy are amazing. He does not give a fuck what you think. He is a grifter out for cash just like every other NYC real estate developer has been. The whole ‘massive ego that needs to be deflated’ was a bit he started as a WWE actor. It got him a gig at NBC that expanded his brand and made him even more money. Narcissists and idiots make poor conmen, and Trump is an excellent conman.

Posted by: Badjoke | May 17 2025 2:15 utc | 185

DJT, in an interview w/ Bret Baier, said”Nobody uses leverage better than me,” in his pledge to slap more sanctions on Russia should Moscow fail to reach a peace settlement w/ Kiev.
Sanctions, of course, are a weapon of economic warfare, but they are not an impossible to thwart or impossible to counter weapon like, say, the Oreshnik is.
Besides which, Russia has been sanctioned to the nth for many years, and the sanctions have counterintuitively worked to Russia’s advantage by making the country more resilient and less likely to fold under pressure of sanctions.
DJT flatters himself w/ a *leverage* he does not proactively possess. But that’s called bluffing—and that’s what bluffing is all about. Additional sanctions on Russia are not suddenly going to exert pressure.
“It will be crushing for Russia,” DJT bluffed to Bret Baier, “because they’re having a hard time with the economy.”
DJT knows as little about the Russian economy as he does the daily casualty figures in the Ukraine War. Bleating ad nauseum about ‘the Russian economy’ is a way for DJT to Jedi mind-trick his way into Russia’s head.
But this is not the planet Tatooine and Jedi mind-tricks won’t work here, because VVP actually *knows* the status & state of the Russian economy.
So talking smack can’t goad Moscow into inking a disadvantageous deal w/ Kiev.
And remember: VVP is ungoadable.
DJT, having no leverage, can’t leverage his way out of a paper bag. He says he’s going to boost domestic oil production in order to undermine Russia’s energy exports.
Right.
He says VVP is “tired” from the conflict.
Yeah.
Tired as in “tired of winning”-? No military on the verge of a Victor’s Peace suddenly gets tired.
DJT is leveraging-to-nowhere.
Trash-talk notwithstanding, it’s all good. “Putin and I have to get together,” DJT told Bret Baier. “I have a very good relationship with Putin.”
You betcha.
VVP may personally respect DJT, but it is not as if he will pump the brakes on a Victor’s Peace that is so tantalizingly within reach, let alone shut off the engine altogether.
The two leaders will still have “a very good relationship” once Russia finishes mulching the neo-Nazi regime. But mulching the neo-Nazi regime has to take precedent right now.
Besides which, VVP’s diplomat in Istanbul did in fact present negotiation terms to the Ukrainian team, which the Ukrainians summarily dismissed. By all rights DJT *could* as quickly slap sanctions on the recalcitrant, foot-dragging neo-Nazi regime before slapping them on Russia.
After all, Ukraine is balking.
The thing to keep in mind is this: bone-crushing sanctions are a weapon of war. A belligerent, the U.S., is directing a weapon of war at Russia.
It’s a reminder that the peace-loving mediator DJT is a co-belligerent, pushing not only his proxy against Russia but also the full-weight of western economic warfare against Russia too.
DJT is at war with Russia.

Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 17 2025 2:28 utc | 186

Posted by: Melaleuca | May 17 2025 1:34 utc | 181
RE: the media will eviscerate DJT if he has to beg Congress for more $$$ in Ukraine
<< The utter public humiliation of having to beg Congress to fund a war he said he could end in 24 hours, as you rightly repeat, would constitute an act of political suicide the likes of which world history has scarcely known. Even immediately committing a face-saving act of seppuku just afterward could not/would not allow him to atone. Tough to lose, but Russia has proven its mettle robustly. VVP's got that dog in him.

Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 17 2025 2:40 utc | 187

Posted by: karlof1 | May 16 2025 22:49 utc | 149
Thank you,karlof1. I approached the discussion with a degree of hopefulness, but there was very little to build on in Lavrov’s answers to questions. In those, his descriptions seem to describe a moribund UN, even not willing to have the Russian Federation make its required monetary contributions. And with others noting that the position of leadership of the General Assembly seems assured to go to a person unqualified for it as far as what she has contributed elsewhere, that is very troubling indeed.
Lavrov seemed to be making a distinction between the use of tourism and diplomacy itself in answering many questions that seemed to try to give the former more potential usefulness than the actual craft of diplomacy, the latter having more real substance as far as the achievement of positive results in creating dialogue with the opposition parties. I’m not sure how AI comes into that picture, but I suspect it might be the tool of the tourism proposers, given Lavrov’s opening statement that “….Creative solutions can only be found by a living person with erudition experience.”
If I’m offbase in these suppositions, my apologies.

Posted by: juliania | May 17 2025 2:41 utc | 188

Posted by: juliania | May 17 2025 2:41 utc | 191
I would just add: What a Secretary General Lavrov himself would make!

Posted by: juliania | May 17 2025 2:46 utc | 189

Posted by: silverfoxes | May 17 2025 0:28 utc | 170
RE: the U.S./Europe will have to escalate if Russia goes full throttle
<< Escalate with what-? The U.S. and Europe have nothing left in the arsenal to throw @ a Russian juggernaut that is getting ready to run-the-table. For the U.S. and Europe, a frozen conflict would be a saving grace, because it would allow them to catch a breather, but that's out of the cards now. Their Titanic is going screw-up, and they're sliding off the deck.

Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 17 2025 2:51 utc | 190

Escalate with what-?
Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 17 2025 2:51 utc | 193
#######
That is the question.
A lot of people in NATOstan talk a big game but don’t have the ability to back it up.
It is going to be a gloomy day in America when a peer decides to call the bluff.
Iran or China, although China won’t first strike. Iran still owes TP3 to the occupation.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 17 2025 2:59 utc | 191

This is not a failure of negotiations. It is a failure of foolish and unrealizable expectations being thrown aroud the public domain like candy to children. There is no possibility of a ceasefire or a negotiated peace any time soon.
Realism is found among several credible experts and institutions who like myself have long expressed skepticism about the prospects for a near-term resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. They argue that the war is likely to continue for years, possibly decades, due to the inability of either side to achieve decisive military victory or to reach a diplomatic settlement.
Expert and Institutional Assessments
1. General Valery Zaluzhny (Ukraine’s Top General): In late 2023, General Zaluzhny stated that the war had reached a stalemate, with both sides entrenched and unable to make significant advances. He emphasized that the prospect of a prolonged war could favor Russia.
POLITICO+1AUSA+1
2. Ian Bremmer (President, Eurasia Group): In a 2023 essay, Bremmer predicted that the stalemate in Ukraine would likely persist for at least another year, citing the lack of decisive military breakthroughs and the challenges in achieving a diplomatic resolution.
Time
3. Chatham House: In a 2024 report, Chatham House outlined scenarios for the end of the war, including the possibility of an “endless war,” where neither side can secure a decisive victory, leading to a protracted conflict.
Chatham House
4. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: Analysts from Carnegie have noted that Russia possesses the resources to sustain a long-term conflict, suggesting that the war could continue for an extended period unless significant changes occur.
Council of the European Union
5. Harvard University’s Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies: In April 2025, experts convened by the Davis Center expressed doubts about the effectiveness of U.S.-brokered talks, indicating that a quick end to the war was unlikely.
Harvard Gazette
Summary
The consensus among these experts and institutions is clear: the Russia-Ukraine conflict is entrenched, with no realistic prospect of a swift resolution. The ongoing military stalemate, compounded by deep-rooted geopolitical dynamics, points to a war that could drag on for many years. Unfortunately, much of the mainstream media — and even many in the alternative or pro-BRICS media — remain fixated on the latest headlines or statements from the past 48 hours. This short-term obsession routinely ignores the broader context and hard-earned insights already on record.
The squeaky wheel gets the grease.

Posted by: Roger | May 17 2025 3:12 utc | 192

@ Roger | May 17 2025 3:12 utc | 195

The consensus among these experts

Sigh.

Posted by: boneless | May 17 2025 3:14 utc | 193

Non of them are experts, they aren’t even saying the same thing to be in a consensus and there was never any stalemate.

Posted by: boneless | May 17 2025 3:21 utc | 194

@ Roger | May 17 2025 3:12 utc | 195
you’d be better pedaling that shit elsewhere..it doesn’t fly at moa.. right wing neo con think tanks talking the usual bullshit.. wow..

Posted by: james | May 17 2025 3:30 utc | 195

@TJandTheBear | Sat, 17 May 2025 02:08:00 GMT | 185

OH, and the new RF commander of the ground forces? He’s exactly the one they want to roll up the rest of the AFU, having mopped up Mariupol and Azovstal — some of Ukraine’s best, most committed troops — early in the SMO.

Yup, he’s the guy Russia wants in charge. Hilarious that Ukraine claimed to have killed him early in the war. I wonder if Ukraine ever corrected their error? I doubt it. Like all the other lies Ukraine has spread – 44 Russian generals killed, Ghost of Kiev, Snake Island, Mauripol hasn’t fallen, Russian war crimes in Bucha, Russia using inmates, Russia running out of troops, tanks, ammo, etc. – this one was proven false.

Posted by: James M. | May 17 2025 3:31 utc | 196

A belligerent, the U.S., is directing a weapon of war at Russia. It’s a reminder that the peace-loving mediator DJT is a co-belligerent, pushing not only his proxy against Russia but also the full-weight of western economic warfare against Russia too. DJT is at war with Russia.
Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 17 2025 2:28 utc | 188
Definitely correct. No matter what is said, who holds meetings, or who happens to be president in either country, this underlying truth isn’t going to change.
That said, the Russian economy does face serious structural challenges that are already difficult to manage. If I know this, then so do Trump’s advisors—the same people who help craft his public stance. Putin is undoubtedly aware as well, but neither his government nor the aligned media are likely to broadcast just how serious those challenges really are.

Posted by: Roger | May 17 2025 3:33 utc | 197

Posted by: Roger | May 17 2025 3:12 utc | 195
RE: the western experts
“In late 2023, General Zaluzhny stated that the war had reached a stalemate, with both sides entrenched and unable to make significant advances. He emphasized that the prospect of a prolonged war could favor Russia.”
<< At the time Zaluzhny stated the above in a phone interview w/ the WaPo, Russian Forces were dismantling Avdiivka. The ultimate liberation of the citadel from which neo-Nazis had launched cluster munitions and petal mines @ Donetsk City since 2014, would take 2 months still---but the war was by no means in a stalemate. I'll never forget the battles for various terrikons and the pipe---the OG pipe---which permitted the Russians to surprise the AFU from behind. This was riveting, compelling warfare intelligently implemented w/ great heart & attitude. The momentum Russia gained from the courageous victory in Avdiivka has only accelerated since. The Regime Media prefers to focus on *muh stalemate* because it is carrying water for the U.S.-led NATO which, sensing Ukraine's impending defeat, wants to freeze the conflict as soon as possible. In a media ecosystem where the squeaky wheel gets the grease, keep in mind that there is a great deal more intricacy about Project Ukraine and the actual battles in Ukraine which colleagues posting here at MOA actually *know* and have researched from various non-western sources--but which the Regime Media naturally suppresses & ignores. The suppression itself, a form of censorship, can convincingly mimic a stalemate, if that is what the Regime Media wants to boost. A stalemate is what they want to boost.

Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 17 2025 3:34 utc | 198

@Roger | Sat, 17 May 2025 03:12:00 GMT | 195

The consensus among these experts and institutions is clear: the Russia-Ukraine conflict is entrenched, with no realistic prospect of a swift resolution. The ongoing military stalemate, compounded by deep-rooted geopolitical dynamics, points to a war that could drag on for many years

Two dictums of international relations: All wars end. All empires fall.
These negotiations are just preliminary posturing, but the fact that there are negotiations, after none in three years, is a sign of progress toward a resolution. The war will end sooner than you think.

Posted by: James M. | May 17 2025 3:37 utc | 199

Posted by: WTF | May 17 2025 2:31 utc | 189
Uneccessarily offensive
The order is right at this moment being implemented
1. Rest of Donetsk (major advances happening right now)
2. Sumy (major inroads)
3. Kharkov (under pressure)
4. Dnipro (Getting very very close to the border – less than 2km)
5. Zaporizhia city (depends on 4)
6. Rest of Kherson (depends on 4 and 5)
7. Nikopol or possibly Krivy Rhi
6. Probably Odessa

Posted by: watcher | May 17 2025 3:38 utc | 200