Ukraine - Negotiation Failure Plus Other Items
After some diplomatic gyrations, talks between the Russian Federation and Ukraine took place today in Istanbul, Turkey.
The Russian side had sent largely same delegation which had negotiated with Ukraine in March and April 2022. It sees the current negotiations as a continuation of the older ones, provided that new facts on the ground are taken into account.
The Ukrainian delegation was headed by its Minister of Defense Rustem Umerov. Its task was to demand an immediate ceasefire and to prepare a meeting between the presidents of the two countries.
The talks ended after just two hours.
The Russian side is said to have demanded a Ukrainian retreat from the four oblast the Russians have largely conquered and integrated into their country.
The Ukrainian side demanded an immediate ceasefire, the return of children the Russians had removed from the areas involved in military operations and the exchange of all prisoners (of which Russia has many more than Ukraine). It is obvious that Ukrainian side is not interested (yet) in making peace.
Both sides rejected the other side's demands and that was it. For now ...
The balance of power in the war is clearly on the Russian side. The Ukrainian army will thus continue to bleed and lose on the battlefield.
Another exchange of dead soldiers also occurred today. Thirty four corpse of Russia soldiers were exchanged against 909 Ukrainian ones. The rather absurd relation of 1 to 27 has been the case for quite a while. Indeed it seems that Russian side has limited the number of Ukrainian corpses it is willing to release per exchange to 909.
bigger
There are three reasons that contribute to the strong divergence of the numbers of dead on each side.
- For the Ukrainian side the evacuation of dead (and wounded) soldiers is not a priority.
- The Russian side is moving forwards winning control of areas that the Ukrainian side has lost. This allows to collect all dead while not being under fire.
- The Ukrainian losses are in general much higher than the Russian ones.
Lieutenant-General Andrey Mordvichev, who the Ukrainians had claimed to have killed on March 19 2022, has become the Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Ground Forces in the rank of a Colonel-General.
The Ukrainian government 'lost' over $700 million buying arms and munitions which were never delivered or unusable.
How Ukraine lost hundreds of millions on arms deals gone wrong (archived) - Financial Times, May 16 2025
Desperate to source munitions, Kyiv paid foreign brokers for weapons and shells that were sometimes unusable or never arrived
A Financial Times investigation, based on leaked Ukrainian state documents, court filings and dozens of interviews with procurement officials, weapons dealers and manufacturers, and detectives, has uncovered how hundreds of millions of dollars Kyiv paid to foreign arms intermediaries to secure vital military equipment has gone to waste over the past three years of war.
...
To date, Ukraine has paid out $770mn in advance to foreign arms brokers for weapons and ammunition that have not been delivered, according to figures from Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence, as well as documents seen by the FT.
...
Most the deals have (presumably) involved large bribes.
Posted by b on May 16, 2025 at 14:04 UTC | Permalink
next page »Here is the full text of Medinsky’s statement:
Dear colleagues,
Direct negotiations with the Ukrainian side, organized at the initiative of the president of Russia, have just concluded. Overall, we are satisfied with the outcome and are ready to continue contacts.
Here is what was agreed:
First – in the coming days, a large-scale prisoner exchange will take place, 1,000 for 1,000 people.
Second – the Ukrainian side requested direct talks between the heads of state, and we have taken this request into account.
And third – we agreed that each side will present its vision of a possible future ceasefire, outlining it in detail. Once these visions are presented, it has been mutually agreed that it would be appropriate to continue our negotiations.
Posted by: Jo | May 16 2025 14:14 utc | 2
There are three reasons that contribute to the strong divergence of the numbers of dead on each side.For the Ukrainian side the evacuation of dead (and wounded) soldiers is not a priority.
The Russian side is moving forwards winning control of areas that the Ukrainian side has lost. This allows to collect all dead while not being under fire.
The Ukrainian losses are in general much higher than the Russian ones.
You could add more - 4 days training doesn't allow time for medical skills, Russians get 6 months training (or 3 if returning to army).
Ukrainians are dragged off the streets in their middle age, Russians are in their prime.
And each feeds on each other.
Failure to evacuate means people die within 1 hour if they don't know how to stem the blood.
And Ukraine sends in good bodies after bad, exhanging large human losses to minimise Land loss.
Posted by: Michael Droy | May 16 2025 14:21 utc | 3
The Economist reports that the head of the Russian delegation, Medinsky, asked this question during negotiations with Ukraine:
We [Russia] don't want war, but we are ready to fight for a year, two, three - as long as it takes. We fought with Sweden for 21 years. And how long are you ready to fight?
@TabZLIVE
Posted by: Jo | May 16 2025 14:21 utc | 4
In wikipedia related to Andrey Mordvichev "According to an interview he gave at the end of July 2023 with the state-run Russia-1 television channel, Mordvichev views the invasion of Ukraine as a mere "stepping stone" to further conflict with Eastern Europe". I assume this view aligns with the overall strategy of the Military command in Russia.
Posted by: hubert | May 16 2025 14:23 utc | 5
Went from last ensuring negotiated “peace settlement” to introducing “visions” of “ceasefire”.
How the mighty Russia has fallen.
Now we can have a 2 month circus of “he said, she said”…
In any event, they got Russia to eat crow publicly about considering a “ceasefire”… regardless. Must be the “willing to compromise” Putin toted.
People here will say, “yeah, but by 2 months, they’ll be no Ukraine army anyways”… either way, the bodies, weapons & $ will pour in, especially if they have a carrot that they’re close to a freeze.
No, I’m not Putin, or Russian Federation or anything else.
But now more “international pressure” not less, is being applied to Russia, Brazil, the Vatican, all the EU can now “unite” again around this “upcoming ceasefire”, even China is being put in a bad situation optically.
Saying it again, bad move, not 5d chess, stupid to have even “cracked” the door.
Posted by: Trubind1 | May 16 2025 14:28 utc | 6
Getting back the *hostages* from the Kursk Region is important. It was worth it to sit down in Istanbul on account of this.
It was important, too, to gauge intractability vectors, plus the appetite on the part of Ukraine merely for stunts & media shows.
My sense is that Istanbul is tapped out as a future venue for potential negotiations. It was all right to give Istanbul a whirl, since that was where the talks were left off in 2022, but I don't see a NATO country as promising going forward.
The next sit-down should be a bilateral in Moscow between DJT and VVP.
Meanwhile, since the Victory Day ceasefire, Russia's Battlegroup Central has inflicted more than 3040 casualties, destroyed 26 armored combat vehicles and liberated 6 villages in the Donetsk Region.
Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 16 2025 14:31 utc | 7
At the moment, it is known from various sources that during the negotiations in Istanbul, the Russian side put forward strict conditions for a ceasefire:
complete withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the territory of the Kherson, Zaporizhia regions, the DPR and LPR;
creation of a security zone in the Sumy and Kharkiv regions.
In case of refusal, the Russian army will not only liberate the parts of the Russian regions controlled by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, but will also forcibly ensure control over the Dnepropetrovsk, Sumy and Kharkiv regions.
Posted by: Gipas | May 16 2025 14:35 utc | 8
western press makes me think it's not the same conflict ...
"Kyiv is seeking an 'unconditional ceasefire' in the fighting that has killed tens of thousands"
Posted by: Newbie | May 16 2025 14:39 utc | 9
Ukraine and World Affairs: Weekly Update, 16th May 2025: May be useful to some: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-and-world-affairs-weekly-5d7
Posted by: The Busker | May 16 2025 14:39 utc | 10
"Most 'of' the deals have (presumably) involved large bribes."
b
I would upgrade from , 'presumably', to , 'without a doubt'.
Posted by: canuck | May 16 2025 14:40 utc | 11
Posted by: Trubind1 | May 16 2025 14:28 utc | 6
#######
There is no Ukraine now. Economically, demographically, politically. Ukraine remains 404.
The ceasefire was entirely a NATO idea. Never a Russian one.
Nothing has changed from last week, month, or year. Russia will have to continue until the NATO "partners" are exhausted. That was true in '22, '23, and '24.
The difference is that Russia adding thousands more men every month.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 16 2025 14:40 utc | 12
Sadly, there is surprisingly little analysis available on the data available on the negotiations.
WHY is Russia sending who the are sending:
1. Mostly military people and
2. People who have brought to life the Bennet-Deal two years ago. A deal that, allegedly, was first broken by Ukraine - by claiming to have defeated Russia when, according to Russia, Russia had withdrawn their troops from Kyiv as part of the deal. A deal that, secondly, was ripped to pieces by NATO.
2. seems to suggest that Russia would like to discuss the fate of the last agreement and seek some assurances that Kyiv won't stab the in back again.
1. seems to suggest that Russia's military may, following Theodore Roosevelt's approach, intends to show Kyiv the big stick they are carrying while the political leadership can speak softly with President Trump and anybody else willing to negotiate in earnest. The big stick may include ratching up the responses to Ukraine's provocations. And it may include a message for Ukraine to pass on to willing stooges in Europe who seem to think they can continue taking pot shots at targets in Russia while pretending Ukraine is doing the firing.
My 2 cents. It would be interesting to see some serious thoughts on what can be read from the representation on the negotiating team. And from the moves both sides made so far on the grand chessboard of international diplomacy.
Posted by: Marvin | May 16 2025 14:43 utc | 13
RE: Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 16 2025 14:31 utc | 7
Respect your view, but prisoner exchange was in the works & would happen anyways. Ukraine wanted their hardcore Nazis back in exchange for Kursk civilians mainly. Most likely Russia, in the end, because they’re Turkeys loverboys, guessing another “compromise” Russia most likely made.
Either way, Ukraine is desperate fir men, so would have compromised on something without this meeting.
As for your other points, agree, battlefield going well.
But again, would have anyways.
Nope, Russia is simply doing the same thing it’s done for 100 years. Sabotaging itself to save the West.
As for the sit-down with DJT & VVP, it would end up a sickening televised stomach turning event, that would finally lock in the Russian populace how 2 faced their Leader really is about “the Collective West”. If Putin has an ounce of political wisdom left, he’ll steer clear of that trap.
Posted by: Trubind1 | May 16 2025 14:46 utc | 14
ukraine caved on their "all prisoners for all prisoners" exchange demand.
how the mighty nato-backed ua has fallen. bad optics.
went from "unconditional 30 day ceasefire" to some "visions" of it. meanwhile, the russians simply ignored that western ultimatum and keep pounding away.
cant wait for the media to spin ukraine caving into a win somehow. well with enough cocaine they sure can.
Posted by: Justpassinby | May 16 2025 14:52 utc | 15
Well, since Ukrainians talked/negotiated with Russians, Zelensky's no negotiations edict must have been abolished, yet there's no news of that having happened that I've seen. And despite attempts to spin the outcome as somehow negative for Russia, the status quo continues. Putin met again today with the Security Council, and there are both Russian and Ukrainian reports of very thinly held areas on the LOC being assaulted and/or abandoned. The Nazi command clearly is more interested in the possibility of killing Russian civilians along the border regions than in forming a more defensible line. It appears Russian commanders understand the very low density of opposing troops and are pressing forward despite the heavy use of drones and artillery. Climatic and foliage conditions are also aiding Russia.
The negotiations have provided the optics Russia intended as well as the anticipated response from the Nazis and their backers. I predict this tread will see many fleas trying to spin all that otherwise.
Yeah I read that the only positive to come from it was a 1,000 prisoner exchange plan, also why would Putin want to sitdown with a Neo-Nazi dictator and discuss terms, eventually Ukraine's fate will be decided between Trump and Putin, or maybe even just Putin - if the Kremlin decides to keep on pushing West.
Posted by: Republicofscotland | May 16 2025 14:55 utc | 17
Russia was never going to negotiate territory and neither was Ukraine. Both sides understand this at this time. Both russia and Ukraine have resources to fight for a long time, in ukraines case they will never run out of weapons as it's supplied externally from untouchable areas. It's manpower is still substantial as they don't need to have people running their economy, if it comes down to it migrants will be imported to run important operations.
No these negotiations are a signal that neither side is averse to peace, while not being ready to make substantive compromises.
Russia can't compromise because it's enemies can't be trusted to any half measures, and ukraine wont be allowed to quit and they have no one who can rebel all fighting age men are conscripted.
The war only ends when ukraine collapses and that is hard to do when it's being held together from the outside.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | May 16 2025 14:58 utc | 18
I've mentioned before, there is no path to Ukrainian victory.
What would a victory look like?
Collapse of the Russian state and capture of Crimea?
Does anything indicate either are possible or likely?
Did the European NATO powers discover a crashed alien ship loaded with weapons technology? Maybe several thousand arms factories that they forgot about?
I'm not being arrogant. I'm seeing the disposition and capability of forces and it has seemed obvious to me for a year that the momentum is all in one direction, with few signs that it could swing.
After hearing that the Pentagon was sweating the use of precision munitions against Yemen, the well may truly be running dry. Coupled with Chinese export controls that presumably Russia is exempt from, the Western war machine is fast approaching its limits.
NATO can't score a decisive victory now. Every day it becomes more unlikely they will be able to do so.
Just like I knew last year that Trump would be unable to negotiate with the Russians (even if he wanted to, which he does not), it seems obvious to me that NATO is unable to achieve victory at war.
1 + 1 = 2.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 16 2025 14:58 utc | 19
RE: Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 16 2025 14:40 utc | 12
I see a lot of your points, as far as “on the ground” goes.
But no, ALOT has changed.
Putin went from insisting on a negotiated settlement, addressing root causes, potential “settlement” (ie total capitulation, which they are in every military advantage to insist upon) to presenting a Minsk 3.0 “vision”.
Publicly.
How are they going to walk that back?
I hope Putin/BlackRock/DJT got themselves all organized for the Russian populace backlash, and all their money hidden away. It’s like the Americans finding out there were no weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.
Good luck Putin.
Obviously from the first Minsk, this has been a ruse between the power brokers. Since we’re now going to present Minsk3 … and sell it.. again… as “patience of Putin”
Posted by: Trubind1 | May 16 2025 14:59 utc | 20
If there was anyone in the leadership of Ukraine that cared for Ukraine, there would be peace, but complete depopulation of native population and subjugation to global interests seems to be at play. Furthermore the brutality with which the job is executed gives the Ukrainians a spiritual home with Israel and Islamic fundamentalists, almost as though they are all fingers on the same hand
Posted by: Jacq | May 16 2025 15:00 utc | 21
Publicly.
Posted by: Trubind1 | May 16 2025 14:59 utc | 20
######
I follow a lot of Russian media and you seem to be following Western narratives.
What is being said in Russia (which is actually quite little) hasn't changed at all from last year when Putin was addressing the security institutions of the state.
All of the "movement" is being generated by Russia's enemies, not from Putin.
It's clearly a tactic to undermine Putin's domestic support.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 16 2025 15:05 utc | 22
EU policy for next 50 years
I found a Ukraine flag Meme Generator online and created a proper Ukraine flag that best illustrates European policy. Unfortunately it is only on Finnish and difficult to translate.
KÖYHÄT KYYKYYNja
RAUTAA RAJALLE!
The first line translates to something like "Fuck the poor". The bottom line literally means "move iron or steel to the border (with Russia)". It is a call for extreme militarization of society, huge investments in weapons, confrontation with neighbors, and cleansing society of leftist or pro-Russian elements. Just like Finnish policy in the 1930s.
In English the meme could be something like this:
F*CK THE POORand
MILITARIZE!
If you want to delight your Finnish friends and neighbors, you can download the meme here.
https://imgflip.com/i/9u7xa3
Posted by: Petri Krohn | May 16 2025 15:06 utc | 23
Just PR and buying time thx to the US/EU team. As Freeman says the 27 cannot agree on anything except the pursuit of the war. MbS and Erdo got rehabilitated. That was not difficult after even a djihadist like Sharaa was for his role in the war on the "reds".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iTn-CqdOA8Y
Posted by: Tom | May 16 2025 15:08 utc | 24
I will reiterate that just as Trump cannot negotiate a Palestinian state or an admission of defeat in Ukraine, Putin cannot do a Minsk 3.
He would be removed from power if he tried. It would be seen as a Gorbachev tier betrayal.
That is why Western "sources" continue to push this narrative. Political unrest. Demoralization.
There is what we "hear" and what Putin says.
I have not heard any softening from the Russians.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 16 2025 15:10 utc | 25
In the East, things are said once because they are said carefully.
The way Trump flip flops and embellishes is not how things are done in Russia or China.
Last we substantively heard from Putin is what he has been saying for years.
A lot of this confusion arises in the West from a combination of projection and inception.
This is information warfare.
Some here are wittingly or unwittingly participating in it.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 16 2025 15:17 utc | 26
RE: Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 16 2025 15:05 utc | 22
I’m not talking about Western or Russian “media”
You act as if Russian people are stupid and wouldn’t understand this as a Minsk 3.
No one in Russia or this site cares about the “media”.
Russia’s own government is saying “ceasefire”.
I think you’re underestimating the military and civilian impact of this. “Ceasefire” is not “settlement”. Is not an end of aggression. You think the military sitting here advancing in every direction wants to hear this shit? Let aline the Russian families that have made sacrifices of loved ones?
And frankly, no one has any reason to believe that Russia won’t agree to a Minsk 3, with of course, more promises than b4 to break.
You act like it “won’t happen”. I’ll toss a coin atm…
Posted by: Trubind1 | May 16 2025 15:21 utc | 27
Keeping "muh ceasefire!" hope alive is just Russia being smart. it keeps Trump hooked in to diplomacy, he cannot escape the tar pit.
Meanwhile, go full speed ahead on the ground. Pokrovsk, and that Konstantinov (spelling) town SW of Chasiv Yar look like reasonable objectives for the next 3 months. Plus Lyman. After that, the last of the Biden aid will be either spent or burned out into smithereens by the RF.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | May 16 2025 15:23 utc | 28
thanks b..
this is between russia and the west - usa, and stupid friends... maybe capitalism is at stake, lol.. keep the money machine churning out the weapons of destruction to keep the capitalist engine going... if people have to die in the process - so be it..
this is a really shitty live theatre thing as i see it, even if the drama queen trump is involved...
here is a new word for me and maybe you - interregnum
that is where the world is at now, and no new beginning is in sight, but the old order ain't dead yet..
Posted by: james | May 16 2025 15:26 utc | 29
$700 million of money laudering and baksheesh ?
Just the tip of the iceberg. Rumored that the Euros were oft visiting Kiev just to bring back suitcases if cash under diplomatic cover.
Posted by: Exile | May 16 2025 15:33 utc | 30
Ukrainian defence minister Rustem Umerov says his country’s third objective is to hold “high-level discussions”.
I think the next step would be that [a] leaders level meeting should be organised. That would be our next step.
Ha ha ha
Posted by: Night Tripper | May 16 2025 15:37 utc | 31
Suggested prior that 30-day ceasefire is a ruse:
—retrenchment, rearmament of Ukros forces
—possible window for Euro force occupation
—PR victory of course
None of this was ever possible. But apparently it forced Russia’s hand, leading to today’s talks.
And the question of a Trump appearance, and VVP going to Istanbul also looks implausible.
It seems that the narratives are contrived, there is no sensible reason besides theatrics.
We might conjecture that the Nazis are negotiating secret deals to save their skins.?
Posted by: Nothingburgers | May 16 2025 15:39 utc | 32
You act like it “won’t happen”. I’ll toss a coin atm…
Posted by: Trubind1 | May 16 2025 15:21 utc | 27
######
Being able to recognize inevitability cuts away a lot of BS.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 16 2025 15:39 utc | 33
Suggested prior that 30-day ceasefire is a ruse:
—retrenchment, rearmament of Ukros forces
—possible window for Euro force occupation
—PR victory of course
None of this was ever possible. But apparently it forced Russia’s hand, leading to today’s talks.
And the question of a Trump appearance, and VVP going to Istanbul also looks implausible.
It seems that the narratives are contrived, there is no sensible reason besides theatrics.
We might conjecture that the Nazis are negotiating secret deals to save their skins.?
Posted by: Nothingburgers | May 16 2025 15:40 utc | 34
Russia’s own government is saying “ceasefire”.
Posted by: Trubind1 | May 16 2025 15:21 utc | 27
########
Who?
Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 16 2025 15:40 utc | 35
Interesting take from Strana.
It seems like western media do their best to project the talks as hostile and a (Russian) failure.
The participants in the talks are much calmer.
Strana (machine translation):
The first brief comments on their progress were given to journalists at a brief briefing by the head of the Ukrainian delegation, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov and Russian Vladimir Medinsky.The Ukrainian minister said that at the talks, the parties discussed "all the modalities" of the ceasefire. And he added that he will soon report on the agenda of the next round of negotiations.
"We are potentially preparing a meeting at the level of country leaders," Umerov said.
He also said that an agreement was reached on the exchange of prisoners according to the formula 1000 for 1000. This will be the largest exchange since the beginning of the war.
So far, Umerov's comments are far from the harshly negative leaks in the media about the progress of the negotiations, which were distributed by Western (mainly British) and Ukrainian publications. In general, these comments indicate rather a constructive course of negotiations and their continuation-judging by the words about the next round.
In turn, the head of the Russian delegation, Medinsky, said that his side was "satisfied with the result" of the negotiations with Ukraine. He added that the Russian Federation is " ready to continue contact." He also confirmed that in the near future Ukraine and Russia will conduct a large-scale exchange of prisoners.
According to him, Russia has taken note of Ukraine's request for a meeting between Vladimir Putin and Vladimir Zelensky. Also, "each side will describe in detail its vision of the ceasefire," after which another meeting may take place.
...
It should be noted that these statements are in sharp contrast to the harshly negative "leaks" about the course of the negotiations, which were distributed by Western (mainly British) and Ukrainian media.
RE: “The negotiations have provided the optics Russia intended as well as the anticipated response from the Nazis and their backers. I predict this tread will see many fleas trying to spin all that otherwise.”
Posted by: karlof1 | May 16 2025 14:54 utc | 16
Back to your “fleas” theories again when you’re trying to “spin” this as some optic victory for Russia.
The facts are: 1) More international players because of “optics” want to jump in (the Pope/Brazil/Turkey/Saudi Arabia) and pressure Russia, not less, not just the wacky EU/Ukraine/US… the “optics” invited more “ceasefire” calls, and accelerated pressure on RUSSIA, not the West.
2) They all “optically” speaking, looked stupid.
3) Absolutely zero need to “counter” EU “ultimatum” at all.
Posted by: Trubind1 | May 16 2025 15:42 utc | 37
[email protected] don't bother me, stuff for little kids.....you are saying the gods of climate and nature favour Russia? In close combat? Russia needs optics to continue....continue what? Kill more grunts at the LOCC, pride spills over!
The Russians have identified the Nazis and their backers as you write, you, and me also, we both know, like the Russians, we all know, the entire bar of MOA flies and fleas alike, we all know who's behind the current Russiaphobia. But Russia enabled FUKUS to continue the combat by allowing USNATO to pour arms and men into the Donbass, so much attrition the Russians won and now send delegations to foreign countries to negotiate a safe peace......hmm, ironic if nothing else.
At this point Russia, as a Regional Power, (maybe they are not) should be demanding heads of State, their nazis and their backers appear in Moscow or else......
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | May 16 2025 15:45 utc | 38
Most the deals have (presumably) involved large bribes.
Come'n B.
Presumably?
You'd consider possible that advance payments amounting to US$700 million could be lost simply because ukrop trusted their suppliers and then later these innocent and very decent ukrop buyers were disappointed?
More likely, ukrops pocketed over half of that amount and laughed at the American suckers giving them that kind of money.
Posted by: Johan Kaspar | May 16 2025 15:47 utc | 39
Posted by: Trubind1 | May 16 2025 15:21 utc | 27
The Russian position on conflict settlement, as expressed at the Istanbul talks, is that Ukraine cede 5 regions to Russia (Crimea, Lughansk, Donetsk, as well as Kherson and Zaporizhia entire) and demilitarize Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts. The Ukrainians were told that if a settlement is not reached and talks disrupted again the next time the Russians will demand 8 oblasts (likely Kharkiv, Sumy, and Dnipropetrovsk in addition to the 5).
You are so full of it.
Posted by: the pessimist | May 16 2025 15:50 utc | 40
b | May 16 2025 15:41 utc | 36--
Thanks, b for providing that additional information. It puts the lie to spin like "How the mighty Russia has fallen," and such.
Lavrov said some interesting things at yesterday's Diplomatic Club meeting. He closed with these words:
"As for the prospects. Diplomacy is not about guessing, but about doing it. This must be done professionally. And professionally does not mean shouting into the microphone like Vladimir Zelensky, demanding that President of Russia Vladimir Putin "come here personally," but do real things."
That meeting's translation will be available later today at my substack.
I said nothing about "gods." The foliage growth provides more visual cover while drier ground allows for faster advances across open terrain. Foliage growth would also help Ukrainian infantry if there was any in the trench systems snaking within the tree lines.
“Who?”
Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 16 2025 15:40 utc | 35
Statements by the Russian side
The head of the Russian delegation, presidential aide **Vladimir Medinsky**, said he was satisfied with the outcome of the talks and Moscow is ready to continue communication. The sides agreed to a 1,000 for 1,000 exchange of prisoners of war. According to Medinsky, Ukraine requested direct talks between the leaders of the countries and Russia took this "under advisement. **Moscow and Kiev would present **their vision of a *possible ceasefire, with** each side "spelling it out in detail." **The head of the Russian delegation said the sides plan to continue negotiating.**
Is there anything in these “talks” reported about “root causes”, “permanent ceasefire”, “recognition of Ukrainians right to speak Russian? The Orthodox Church? “. A “recognition of Crimea and the 4 territories?
No??
What? are the going to “negotiate” that after the “sides” present their Minsk 3 “vision”?
In every sense the West won. They only wanted to “talk about “ceasefire”. Nothing else. They got that. And they were happy to “optically” look like clowns to get it.
The other prisoner exchange crap was thrown in to look like a win for somebody.
Posted by: Trubind1 | May 16 2025 15:58 utc | 43
Posted by: b | May 16 2025 15:41 utc | 36
Russians and ukrops are playing with Trump's vanity and euroliberals don't count for much. That's all. War will continue. Eventually Trump will understand what's going, but it may take some more time and meetings and shit.
Posted by: Johan Kaspar | May 16 2025 15:58 utc | 44
> Both sides rejected the other side's demands and that was it.
> Indeed it seems that Russian side has limited the number of Ukrainian corpses it is willing to release per exchange to 909.
Posted by b on May 16, 2025 at 14:04 UTC | Permalink
---
Sorry. Can't resist.
Both Sides Now ==> https://youtu.be/yXr2EFomFkU
One After 909 ==> https://youtu.be/t8UeWjynWvE
Perhaps I'll have something more substantive later?
Posted by: too scents | May 16 2025 15:59 utc | 45
Everyone knows what would happen to any children sent to the ukronazis, americans and the other unspeakable shit that piles in Ukraine.
Posted by: Jack M | May 16 2025 16:05 utc | 46
RE: You are so full of it.
Posted by: the pessimist | May 16 2025 15:50 utc | 40
That was not reported in any Russian read out.
Because that was tweeted, or blurted out by a Russian politician, doesn’t mean it made it to “the talks”.
Waiting for full read out myself.
But currently going by TASS reporting of the conclusions of the meeting.
Posted by: Trubind1 | May 16 2025 16:07 utc | 47
New StandWithUkraine flag meme
@Petri Krohn | May 16 2025 15:06 utc | 23
(On the difficulty of translating Finnish meme into English.)It is a call for extreme militarization of society, huge investments in weapons, confrontation with neighbors, and cleansing society of leftist or pro-Russian elements. Just like Finnish policy in the 1930s.
After some thought, I realized that the translation "militarize!" only needed some Norse of Vedaic decoration to capture the exact meaning of the Finnish phrase.
F*CK THE POORᛋᛋ and ᛋᛋ
MILITARIZE!
You can download the image from this link and maybe use as your profile picture on social media.
https://imgflip.com/i/9u8adk
Posted by: Petri Krohn | May 16 2025 16:12 utc | 48
From DD Geopolitics Telegram:
„🇪🇺🇷🇺🇺🇦 EU Leaders Blame Russia After Istanbul Talks
European leaders criticized Russia following negotiations with Ukraine in Istanbul, though Moscow and Kiev issued no mutual accusations and signaled readiness for further talks.
🇬🇧🤡 UK Prime Minister Starmer called Russia’s position “unacceptable” and accused Putin of deliberately delaying a ceasefire.
🇫🇷🤡 French President Macron claimed Russia ignored ceasefire demands from the U.S., Ukraine, and the EU.
🇵🇱🤡 Polish Prime Minister Tusk accused Russia of derailing the talks, stating the Kremlin rejected U.S. involvement and made unacceptable demands.
🇮🇹🤡 Italian Prime Minister Meloni said the talks made clear “who truly wants peace and who doesn’t,” urging a ceasefire and security guarantees for Ukraine.
🇩🇪🤡 German Chancellor Merz also blamed Russia but acknowledged a “very small, yet first positive signal” during the talks.“
Posted by: NoName | May 16 2025 16:14 utc | 49
From Intel Slava Telegram:
„🇺🇦❗️ The Russian delegation demanded the complete withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from 4 regions, and when the Ukrainians refused, ours stood up and declared that next time they would have to leave 5 (including Dnipropetrovsk) - Axios“
A posting on DD Geopolitics mentions a source which said „8“ instead of „5“. Take it with a pinch of salt.
Posted by: NoName | May 16 2025 16:22 utc | 50
Looks to me like Putin won the negotiations..
the war continues.. Russia's progress in the Ukraine continues..
and the utterances without meaning issue non stop from the west continue..
Posted by: snake | May 16 2025 16:27 utc | 51
RE: A posting on DD Geopolitics mentions a source which said „8“ instead of „5“. Take it with a pinch of salt.
Posted by: NoName | May 16 2025 16:22 utc | 50
Sounds nice.
Certainly can see the Russian General muttering that loudly on his way out. None to pleased with the “talks”.
Or may he fabricated to boost military field.
Either one, it’ll be true shortly anyways.
Posted by: Trubind1 | May 16 2025 16:29 utc | 52
Until the last Banderist... 404 will become a graveyard if nobody stops them. The locals better do like the Italians before it's too late !
Posted by: Savonarole | May 16 2025 16:30 utc | 53
Posted by: Trubind1 | May 16 2025 15:58 utc | 43
########
They didn't mention ceasefire, did they?
Not at all.
So, are you projecting or propagandizing?
And if it is the former, why?
Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 16 2025 16:34 utc | 54
RE: “Looks to me like Putin won the negotiations..”
Yeah sure.
“the war continues.. Russia's progress in the Ukraine continues..
and the utterances without meaning issue non stop from the west continue.”
And multiplied… nothing unites EU better than a public spectacle.
Posted by: snake | May 16 2025 16:27 utc | 51
The SMO was going to continue regardless for another year or 2 anyways.
There was zero gain for Russia, Trump “runs” nothing.
He was selected to get $$ and slash money. The end.
Posted by: Trubind1 | May 16 2025 16:38 utc | 55
🇫🇷🤡 French President Macron claimed Russia ignored ceasefire demands from the U.S., Ukraine, and the EU.Posted by: NoName | May 16 2025 16:14 utc | 49
whoa there, macron had a lucent moment? someone must have stolen his cocaine!
of course russia ignored that petty ultimatum.
Posted by: Justpassinby | May 16 2025 16:38 utc | 56
Posted by: Trubind1 | May 16 2025 16:07 utc | 47
Your dismissal of this information as "a tweet by a Russian politician" is merely an incorrect self-serving attempt to bolster your position. It was reported by RT from Istanbul from sources from the talks and corrected to "8 regions" by the source after some confusion about what had been said. You only need to look at the chorus of reactions from European leaders calling Russian demands at the talks "unacceptable" to know the truth of the matter. The Ukrainian side tried to get European and US support to avoid the talks altogether, but was told they must participate by the US. Who succeeded here and who capitulated?
Posted by: the pessimist | May 16 2025 16:38 utc | 57
The failure here belongs to the West and its attempts to sell the conflict as something that it is not.
#infowar
Oliver Carroll, a journalist for The Economist, reported that Russian negotiator Vladimir Medinsky asked the Ukrainian delegation the following question during the talks:"We don't want war, but we are ready to fight for a year, two, three — however long it takes. We were at war with Sweden for 21 years. How long are you ready to fight?"
According to the report, Medinsky then continued:
"And Peter the Great… do you know who financed him? England and France. Sweden would still be a great power today if that hadn't been the case."
https://x.com/SprinterObserve/status/1923415847768375314
Does that sound like ceasefire or Minsk 3?
Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 16 2025 16:41 utc | 58
Posted by: NoName | May 16 2025 16:14 utc | 49
I’ll give a B to macron , just stated the obvious, that RF told us, eu and Ukraine where to shove their demands
Will also give a C- to Merz for diverging from the narrative and seeing positive signs
Now for a completely different subject .
2022 summer AFU offensive, RF “lost” 160 bodies per month that AFU was kind enough to send back.
It was a period of fast advances , even big arrows, and yet, now on a snail pace as anonymous likes to say, AFU misplaces 909 corpses per month. More than 5.5 times RF’s worst months.
And 5.5 ratio crawls its ugly head once again…
As for the 909 limit, maybe a cargo plane with 60 ton capacity and average weight of bagged found parts near 66kg? I’d bet few return without significant weight loss , a leg here, an arm there….
Posted by: Newbie | May 16 2025 16:45 utc | 59
Re: Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 16 2025 16:34 utc | 54
Did you read the read out?
I thought “both sides would present visions of a ceasefire” actually was talking about “ceasefire”. Sorry, if I purposefully read the text correctly.
“ Moscow and Kiev would present their vision of a possible ceasefire, with each side "spelling it out in detail." The head of the Russian delegation said the sides plan to continue negotiating.”
Oh, unless you think a “ceasefire” actually means “negotiated settlement” in Russian. Then sure, I’m out to lunch.
Posted by: Trubind1 | May 16 2025 16:46 utc | 60
By the way, prisoner exchanges are counter to an attrition strategy. It is ultimately advantageous to the side that is suffering proportionately higher losses. There may be political reasons for this, arguably important enough to take the loss. The party ahead in the attrition struggle is also suffering losses, which affects morale, both for troops on the front line, as well as the people on the home front.
Posted by: steven t johnson | May 16 2025 16:51 utc | 61
Oh, unless you think a “ceasefire” actually means “negotiated settlement” in Russian. Then sure, I’m out to lunch.
Posted by: Trubind1 | May 16 2025 16:46 utc | 60
You can bring me a sandwich!
RF started firing when 2021 settlement was ignored, RF will cease firing only when some central points are guaranteed .
Yes, RF is presenting the minimum for cease firing , deal with it
P.S. the alternative to “negotiated settlement“ is unconditional surrender
Posted by: Newbie | May 16 2025 16:53 utc | 62
By the way, prisoner exchanges are counter to an attrition strategy. It is ultimately advantageous to the side that is suffering proportionately higher losses. There may be political reasons for this, arguably important enough to take the loss. The party ahead in the attrition struggle is also suffering losses, which affects morale, both for troops on the front line, as well as the people on the home front.
Posted by: steven t johnson | May 16 2025 16:51 utc | 61
Those lucky prisioners can teach the others.
They know how to surrender, they know they’re reasonably treated. Practice makes perfect. And be sure to bring a couple of friends ;)
Posted by: Newbie | May 16 2025 16:56 utc | 63
Posted by: Trubind1 | May 16 2025 14:46 utc | 14
RE: the next sit-down-? DJT w/ VVP in Moscow
<<
During capitulation, it is typical for the one capitulating to sign the documents on the victor's home turf.
DJT and VVP *will* meet. There will be little opportunity for media. DJT will exit stage left, noticing that no one greeted him w/ a Purple Carpet, white Arabian stallions or a camel brigade.
Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 16 2025 16:59 utc | 64
@43 trubind
Your missing all the details under your quotes. There's a lot of material to know and understand though, it simply can't be quoted with a few words.
Like for real Putin brought the issue back a 1000 years in his tucker Carlson interview so I understand it's tough and a little tedious but nonetheless there's a whole lot, and I mean copious amounts of history both recent and ancient to know to understand what's being said in the moment. Otherwise it can only be a surface lets validate my beliefs conversation.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | May 16 2025 17:02 utc | 65
"So, are you projecting or propagandizing?
And if it is the former, why?"
Posted by: LoveDumbass | May 16 2025 16:34 utc | 54
You are really a retard.
Posted by: canuck | May 16 2025 17:02 utc | 66
The problem for the Ukrainian side with any possible negotiated settlement that leaves the current government in place is that its survival is at stake. To agree to what the Russians currently put on the table will confirm for the Ukrainian population that all the bloodshed and losses over the past three years were for nothing. The nationalists will gather themselves and attempt a coup and there will likely be civil war unless they effectively seize power. If they seize power the war will continue until surrender. If they don't accept the current terms the war will continue until surrender.
Posted by: the pessimist | May 16 2025 17:03 utc | 67
RE Does that sound like ceasefire or Minsk 3?
Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 16 2025 16:41 utc | 58
Why is there any misunderstandings here?
Russia will be at war with EU now for years, and they are ready. Russia has won. Did win militarily the day they rolled in.
I’m going to go back to the “ceasefire” as I stated earlier, is a coin toss. We all have to see what unfolds. Frankly, there wasn’t (at least reported) a single objective of Russia’s brought up (formally).
I won’t be surprised either way. And neither should anyone here.
But all of us would be remiss if we forgot Syria.
The years and years of schemes, plots, manipulations, terrorism, assassinations & every known political tool.
This “olive branch” was unhelpful to Russia.
As a matter of fact, TASS is moving on, away from the “optics” into other focused news.
Posted by: Trubind1 | May 16 2025 17:03 utc | 68
Lieutenant-General Andrey Mordvichev, who the Ukrainians had claimed to have killed on March 19 2022, has become the Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Ground Forces in the rank of a Colonel-General.Posted by b on May 16, 2025 at 14:04 UTC
Rybar’s reaction (in Russian, requires Telegram app to view):
Radical changes in the ground forcesThe appointment of Mordvichev, one of the most effective and soberly assessing the situation commanders of the troop groups in the SVO zone, to the post of commander-in-chief of the Ground Forces instead of the old-school military leader Salyukov is a sign that a new, relevant trend will come to the Ground Forces as a whole, and they will be brought up to modern standards.
We will hardly reveal a secret to anyone if we say that the reality in the SVO zone and what is happening in the rear units (primarily in terms of attitudes to change and the demands of the times) differ radically.
It is the placement of effective military leaders in structural positions, who have demonstrated flexibility and operational skill on the battlefield in a constantly changing situation, that is the key to reforming approaches to the construction of the RF Armed Forces.
And one can only sympathize with the Ground Forces headquarters: now they will have to work for results, which many have resisted for a long time, putting uniforms and slideshows at the forefront.
And this is simply wonderful.
Posted by: S | May 16 2025 17:04 utc | 69
$700 million is a drop in the bucket in the grand scheme of this thing, no?
Posted by: Jonathan Caine | May 16 2025 17:06 utc | 70
RE: Otherwise it can only be a surface lets validate my beliefs conversation.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | May 16 2025 17:02 utc | 65
I agree. Much more I don’t know.
I’m simply a person that understands when you crack a door to an enemy on the other side, it goes no where good.
Posted by: Trubind1 | May 16 2025 17:07 utc | 71
$700 million is a drop in the bucket in the grand scheme of this thing, no?
Posted by: Jonathan Caine | May 16 2025 17:06 utc | 70
I agree, Ukraine is so broke, the 700 million probably really don‘t matter anymore.
Posted by: NoName | May 16 2025 17:09 utc | 72
S/F posted a very interesting video (apparently American made) about the Soviet liberation of Poland in WW2.
"The Unknown War" (1978) (I imagine that refers to war on the eastern front).
It discusses briefly the massacre at Katyn.
Is what happened at Katyn still in dispute? I gather the Soviets (Gorbachev) later accepted blame for it.
Why would Stalin have done this - it seems it has poisoned relations?
Posted by: jared | May 16 2025 17:09 utc | 73
@ b | May 16 2025 15:41 utc | 36
thanks b.. the idea that the western press would spin this in a negative way towards russia is 100% predictable... it is not worth going over, but for the thick headed folks who think they are reading an unbiased appraisal of what is happening - they are delusional..
speaking of delusional - this idea that zelensky and putin have to meet - complete bullshit.. so of course the nato stooges will demand it... utter bs and distraction..
clearly the war will continue as it has and the delusions will have to go away over a longer time frame...
nice circus act though, lol..
Posted by: james | May 16 2025 17:13 utc | 74
NATO Hit By Corruption Scandal
https://www.rt.com/news/617659-nato-corruption-probe-procurement/
"Police have conducted arrests and searches in several countries as part of a corruption investigation involving current and former employees of the NATO Support and Procurement Agency (NSPA)..."
Posted by: JohnGilberts | May 16 2025 17:16 utc | 75
The way Trump flip flops and embellishes is not how things are done in Russia or China.
Posted by: LoveDonbass
True. Sometimes Russia insists that they have an "inadmissible" red line, until things crack apart inside a week and negotiations start regardless.
I'm not sure why some people insist that President Trump is a "LOSER, HUMILIATED, TOTALLY DEFEATED" when his domestic position has never been stronger and has established fine relationships with India and just about all of the Arab states. Then again, the Russians clearly have more respect for Trump than the resistance media does. I've said most resistance types will be bitterly disappointed with the results of negotiations in Israel and Ukraine- but VVP's broader goals for Russia are likely to succeed well beyond his ambitions.
Posted by: They Call Me Mister | May 16 2025 17:18 utc | 76
It’s like the Americans finding out there were no weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.
...
Posted by: Trubind1 | May 16 2025 14:59 utc | 20
Point of order - please specify what, exactly, was the backlash to the event you describe.
IIRC, USA gladly re-elected Bush the Second, the Patriot Act was not abolished, the terror scares, surveillance of the honest majority and chipping away at civil liberties (because terrorism) carried on unabated and the forever wars sprouted up across the Middle East like cress.
There was no backlash, things just got worse and worse.
USA, USA, USA!!!!
Posted by: ChatNPC | May 16 2025 17:23 utc | 77
@ jared | May 16 2025 17:09 utc | 73
Officially, the topic isn't brought up at all, but lack of meaningful proof continues to be a sticking point to some people. The official Polish line is too "Stalin was evil" cliche, on top of other illogical elements. Besides, Gorbachev had a motive to throw Stalin under the bus this way.
There must be scientific means to prove the details and time of the event once and for all, but why would Poles bother if what they have now suits their policy line.
On top of that, it is rather difficult to "poison" relations with Poland when it is their natural and preferred state of being. They always act like assholes to whomever they feel like whenever they feel like.
Posted by: boneless | May 16 2025 17:23 utc | 78
Yip, the Neo-Nazi dictator of Ukraine Zelensky - won't be party to any REAL deal with the conflict in mind.
"US President Donald Trump will meet his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin to help Russia and Ukraine finalize a peace agreement, a deputy assistant to Trump, Sebastian Gorka, has said. The meeting between the two leaders is “imminent” he told a security summit organized by Politico.
“Deals are all about timing. When the time is right, that’s when the president is in the room with Putin,” he stated, while maintaining that the right moment is “imminent.” He did not elaborate and did not provide any further details about a possible meeting between Putin and Trump."
Posted by: Republicofscotland | May 16 2025 17:27 utc | 79
Meetings are a waste of time. Look what DJTdid. He went to the ME to exchange weapons for oil.
Many bastards in Dubai are making tons of money from the money laundering and selling of weapons.
This war was already won by the RUF in the battlefield.
In addition, the Kremlin recovered 20% of territory in Ukraine and more than $10 trillion of minerals, rare earth materials, gas, oil and hydrocarbons, etc.
The Outlaw US of A showed again to be a paper tiger.
Even DJT understands that but he's too timid to tell the Europeans.
The SMO shall continue for as long as it takes. No ceasefire will bring peace but more war and re-arming of Ukraine.
Ukraine will lose Odessa, for sure.
Posted by: pepe | May 16 2025 17:29 utc | 81
RE: Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 16 2025 16:59 utc | 64
True. And afterwards Saudi Arabia announced they were going to the St. Petersburg Economic Forum.
It is also reported they paid off Syria’s debt.
The pay off to Trump was to get them to back off from USReal’s request to attack Iran.
They don’t want their back yard mucked up with bombs
(Hence, the truth of why they went on Yemen bombing campaign, squeeze Saudi “this can happen in Iran too, pay up)
It’s why Trump bypassed USReal. Doesn’t want to hear there nonsense. He got his money, tributes and left.
But I digress. Off to Russia Sauds go.
https://tass.com/politics/1958639
KAZAN, May 15. /TASS/. “Representatives of Saudi Arabia will participate in the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), the country’s Ambassador to Moscow Abdulrahman bin Suleiman Al-Ahmed said at the 16th International Economic Forum Russia - Islamic World: KazanForum.”
https://www.yahoo.com/news/world-bank-says-saudi-arabia-150723715.html
World Bank says Saudi Arabia and Qatar have paid off Syria's outstanding debt
Associated Press
Fri, May 16, 2025 at 10:07 AM CDT
2 min read
DAMASCUS, Syria (AP) — The World Bank said Friday that the $15.5 million Syria owed it has been paid off by Saudi Arabia and Qatar, clearing Damascus to **take out new loans.**
The financial capitalist of Syria and carpet baggers are moving in.
Another reason not to muck up the place with bombs.
Posted by: Trubind1 | May 16 2025 17:31 utc | 82
Posted by: Trubind1 | May 16 2025 15:58 utc | 43
You are quite patently "full of it." The only way for the West to have won would have been a ceasefire announced immediately, followed by implementation, and then the frogs and limey bastards marching into the rump Ukraine. Mere "tawk" doesn't cut it. That's what the gaslighting press want you to believe.
Nothing of the sort happened. Instead, we'll watch more Youtube videos on Russia taking more towns, and we have Anonymous' daily glacial territorial gains update to look forward to for the foreseeable future.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | May 16 2025 17:51 utc | 83
hubert @5: "..Mordvichev views the invasion of Ukraine as a mere "stepping stone" to further conflict with Eastern Europe". I assume this view aligns with the overall strategy of the Military command in Russia."
This is more of a realistic assessment rather than a statement of intention. There are plenty of "hints" that NATO intends to attack Transnistria and Kaliningrad, which would necessitate Russia extending the war beyond the Ukraine. This doesn't at all mean Russia wants the war to expand, but rather they recognize that is a strong possibility.
Posted by: William Gruff | May 16 2025 17:57 utc | 84
@ Posted by: boneless | May 16 2025 17:23 utc | 78
They always act like assholes to whomever they feel like whenever they feel like.
Well it does seem they have some cause:
The Massacres of Poles in Volhynia and Eastern Galicia were carried out in German-occupied Poland by the Ukrainian Insurgent Army, with the support of parts of the local Ukrainian population, against the Polish minority in Volhynia, Eastern Galicia, parts of Polesia, and the Lublin region from 1943 to 1945. The peak of the massacres took place in July and August 1943. These killings were exceptionally brutal, and most of the victims were women and children.wikipedia
The Katyn massacre was a series of mass executions of nearly 22,000 Polish military and police officers, border guards, and intelligentsia prisoners of war carried out by the Soviet Union, specifically the NKVD, at Joseph Stalin's order in April and May 1940.wikipedia
When it is claimed that the Soviets are responsible for the massacre at Katyn, would that possibly mean Ukrainian Nationalists or is that not plausible? Just trying to understand this odd bit of history.
Posted by: jared | May 16 2025 17:59 utc | 85
@ jared | May 16 2025 17:59 utc | 85
Wikipedia is a shit source for historically/politically contended events and you do know that.
Short alternative explanation - nazis did it. Short reasoning - location and victims' belongings provide inconsistencies to the official claims. On top of lack of reasonable motive. Circumstantial, sure. The official line has no exact proof either (even alleged post-Stalin Soviet government documents provided to Poland... can't be found), so that's all we've got.
That's the best I've gathered. Any further details would require to find a Russian historian on the topic.
Posted by: boneless | May 16 2025 18:05 utc | 86
Posted by: They Call Me Mister | May 16 2025 17:18 utc | 76
#######
There are differences in messaging based on the audience.
Red lines are almost always warnings to other nations and reassurance to the domestic audience. They are not "promises" just like campaign rhetoric in the West are not promises.
How many red lines has Trump given Hamas, Yemen, Iran, Russia, and China since he was elected?
I think the way the West, specifically America, conducts the infowar distorts expectations of other countries that are not as worried about "optics" as many Western politicians are.
Optics schmoptics. Russia is winning on the ground. Ukraine hasn't made an offensive move since Kursk last year. China won the tariff war in under 60 days. Yemen chased the Truman out of the Red Sea. Regardless of what anyone says, reality always casts the final and deciding vote.
Just because Trump/EU leadership says something doesn't mean reality will bend to their will. Most of those people are quite mediocre, in my opinion. Dunning-Kruger is very common in Western politics.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 16 2025 18:21 utc | 87
Mark Rutte about the negotiations today in Türkiye: https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/148229
He likes to talk about where the ball is... well I understand that, he is Dutch, they are crazy about football.
One can't listen to this guys and the shit they are blabbering about.
Posted by: NoName | May 16 2025 18:25 utc | 88
What many may be unaware of is that Russia has gotten a lot better at offensive operations that preserve manpower. Robotic guns, continued excellence with the God of War (artillery), bombing, heavy drones, and missile strikes.
Makes that massive army in the rear look all the more intimidating, maybe for a future Finnish front?
Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 16 2025 18:27 utc | 89
Posted by: Trubind1 | May 16 2025 15:42 utc | 37
The facts are: 1) More international players because of “optics” want to jump in (the Pope/Brazil/Turkey/Saudi Arabia) and pressure Russia, not less, not just the wacky EU/Ukraine/US… the “optics” invited more “ceasefire” calls, and accelerated pressure on RUSSIA, not the West.
Do you actually realize that nobody outside western propaganda bubble believes "ceasefire optics" rhetoric?
Posted by: Sekava Seppo | May 16 2025 18:34 utc | 90
The Russian delegation said that the Ukrainians need to withdraw from the 4 new Russian regions if they want a ceasefire. Ukrainian delegation said no. The Russian side stood up, said “Next time, it’ll be 8”, and left the room.
That'd be Mykolaev, Odessa, Kharkov and Sumy.
Posted by: xor | May 16 2025 18:44 utc | 91
@boneless @May 16 2025 18:05 utc #86
That's something I've spent some time trying to pursue with little luck. I've heard Martyanov and others talk about how Solzhenitsyn was western agitprop. So what I'm trying to find is history in the local languages that have been translated to English: Russian, Byelorussian, Ukrainian, Polish on the topic of WW2 (and also Stalin/USSR). You never get the whole truth from one side, but finding multiple sides on this in my native tongue I'm finding frustrating. Any barflies with pointers to history books that meet these specifications are encouraged to chime in.
I hope this finds you well
Posted by: ockham | May 16 2025 18:44 utc | 92
Ukrainian losses for the week May 10th to May 16th, as reported by the Russian defence ministry:
- Kursk & Kharkov fronts: 1,330 troops, 5 tanks, 20 LAV/HMV, 81 motor vehicles, 1 MLRS, 36 artillery pieces, 9 EW and counter-battery systems.
- Zapad Group (Luhansk area): 1,490 troops, 3 tanks, 12 LAV/HMV, 64 motor vehicles, 2 MLRS, 18 artillery pieces, 4 EW systems.
- Yug Group (Donetsk north): 1,400 troops, 1 tank, 23 LAV/HMV, 50 motor vehicles, 23 artillery pieces, 11 EW systems.
- Tsetr Group (Donetsk south): 3,040 troops, 26 LAV/ HMV, 66 motor vehicles, 14 artillery pieces.
- Vostok Group (southern front): 1,130 troops, 15 LAV/HMV, 41 motor vehicles, 22 artillery piece, 5 EW and counter-battery systems.
- Dnepr Group: 380 troops, 39 motor vehicles, 8 artillery pieces, 7 EW systems.
In total: 8,770 troops - an decrease from the previous week (38,000 per month, with undercounting probably above 40,000).
9 tanks (5 in Kursk/Kharkov), 0 IFV, 0 APC, 96 HMV/Light Armoured Vehicle (20 in Kursk/Khakrov). The Russians burnt through the extra supply of tanks, IFV and APC very fast - already pretty much depleted it seems. 341 motor vehicles.
121 artillery pieces (36 in Kursk/Kharkov). Down to a rate of 524/mth, is the Ukrainian stock of artillery dwindling? Plus 36 EW and Counter Battery systems, and 3 MLRS.
Back to the Ukrainian reliance on light armoured vehicles, pickup trucks and cars, and their feet for mobility. With what seems to be a dwindling supply of artillery. Drones is the only defensive advantage they still have left to slow down the Russians, and that is dwindling.
Posted by: Roger Boyd | May 16 2025 18:44 utc | 93
Have you noticed that the Russians had not launched another Oreshnik yet? One can understand why the cry by Starmer, Micron and the nazi Merz, don't you thin so?
Posted by: ostrr | May 16 2025 18:49 utc | 94
Way too much blah blah blah. RIA Novosti reports (from the Russian MoD) that the Ukronazis lost 8,000 people just yesterday (May 15) via the RF battle groups. Eight thousand. One day. This is an absolutely staggering total. It's not a fight, it's a slaughter. How much longer can Zelensky, the SBU and their evil sponsors feed the dragon's maw?
No matter which side you take, you have to feel sorry for the poor bastards, they must know what their fate must be.
Posted by: pasha | May 16 2025 18:53 utc | 95
(Not read more than a few comments so far)
Maybe bribes and skimming off the top but losing funds in non-existing deals is also a great way to cover up simply taking the money as well as transferring it.
· · · · · · · · ·
One first day of very rudimentary negotiations (or rather the first tentative exploration of what might possibly be the items in negotiations about possible future negotiations) and yet some quickly adopt all kinds of dubious narratives while avoiding all understanding of diplomacy, protocol, and bureaucracy.
Such impatience can't signify anything real when held up in comparison against both the meeting itself and the serious ongoing situations in the wider world; it is simply too extreme.
· · · · · · · · ·
OT: As always it took me by surprise but I think today is/was another one of those days we got extremely lucky. Keep up the good work whoever you (plural) are!
Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | May 16 2025 18:58 utc | 96
Another contributor to the very high death levels of Ukrainian casualties will be the Ukrainian lack of adequate motorized (especially tracked) vehicles and helicopters to remove casualties in a timely manner from the battlefield. Time is very much of the essence in such situations, as small injuries turn into amputations and bigger ones lead to what could have been preventable deaths.
Seems like the Ukrainians did the Russians a service with their ridiculous demands of an immediate ceasefire, the return of the "deported" children, and an exchange of 1,000 Russian POWs and 500+ kidnapped Russian citizens (from the Kursk region) for 9,000 Ukrainian POWs! So the Russians once again achieved the required PR cover, and Putin should now unleash full on war on the Ukrainian army, infrastructure and political/administrative class. That will help the European political class to wake up from their fever dreams of official NATO troops on the ground.
Posted by: Roger Boyd | May 16 2025 19:00 utc | 97
That's something I've spent some time trying to pursue with little luck. I've heard Martyanov and others talk about how Solzhenitsyn was western agitprop. So what I'm trying to find is history in the local languages that have been translated to English: Russian, Byelorussian, Ukrainian, Polish on the topic of WW2 (and also Stalin/USSR). You never get the whole truth from one side, but finding multiple sides on this in my native tongue I'm finding frustrating. Any barflies with pointers to history books that meet these specifications are encouraged to chime in.I hope this finds you well
Posted by: ockham | May 16 2025 18:44 utc | 92
Solzhenitsyn can be read directly, or in collaborative books in which his writing is one of a number of essays, and, as I recall, his monarchist tendencies were very clear.
That sort of did it for me; not only did he want to turn the wheel of history back to before the Bolsheviks, ... he wanted to turn the wheel back to before Kerensky, i.e., to a Tsarist regime.
Now that's a reactionary.
Posted by: NH | May 16 2025 19:00 utc | 98
Re: Posted by: ChatNPC | May 16 2025 17:23 utc | 77
You have a point. Only a minority at the time, and then 10 years later, maybe a bigger minority. But, no heads ever rolled, no one went to prison. No uprising. No nothing.
You’re right.
Posted by: Trubind1 | May 16 2025 19:05 utc | 99
Ukronazis lost 8,000 people just yesterday (May 15) via
Posted by: pasha | May 16 2025 18:53 utc | 95
Weekly data, includes truce, 4 full days, +2 partials
Average 1.333, about right some lows 1.200 some high 1.400 (still low)
Check better
Posted by: Newbie | May 16 2025 19:12 utc | 100
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Moscow is quite confident. And, why not?
Posted by: Merkin Scot | May 16 2025 14:09 utc | 1