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Open (Neither Ukraine Nor Palestine) Thread 2025-104
News & views not related to the wars in Ukraine and Palestine …
Confucius: “In a country well governed, poverty is something to be ashamed of. In a country badly governed, wealth is something to be ashamed of.”
What is it about China’s socialist system—with capitalist market characteristics—that arguably makes it more democratic and economically just than Democratic Western economies dominated by entrenched corporate elites?
And why has the Shanghai Stock Exchange remained flat despite China’s booming economy?
Let’s start with the paradox.
Many Western analysts assume a flat stock market signals a struggling economy. But in China’s case, the reality is the opposite. Over the past two decades, China has lifted hundreds of millions out of poverty, become the world’s second-largest economy, and built world-class infrastructure—yet the Shanghai Composite Index has remained relatively stagnant.
Why? Because China’s system doesn’t exist to inflate shareholder wealth—it exists to serve the people.
Stock markets ≠ national well-being
In capitalist systems like the U.S., GDP growth is increasingly captured by a tiny elite: stock markets hit record highs while real wages stagnate, the middle class shrinks, social services are cut, and infrastructure crumbles. In contrast, China’s economic model, guided by the Communist Party of China (CPC), channels growth into public goods and long-term development.
Fast trains, modern airports, and high-tech railway stations serve commuters nationwide, even in remote regions.
Food, medical care, education, and housing are treated as human rights—with extensive government programs and local initiatives ensuring access for 1.4 billion people, especially the disadvantaged.
National planning, not corporate lobbying, determines investment priorities.
Public goods and collective uplift—not stock buybacks and speculative profits—are the system’s goal.
So why doesn’t the Chinese stock market boom?
Because China enforces hypercompetitive markets that reward innovation but limit excessive profit-taking:
Companies can’t easily entrench themselves as monopolies. Antitrust rules are real and enforced.
Brand moats are hard to build. Consumers are tech-savvy, price-conscious, and constantly shifting toward better value.
The CPC actively suppresses rent-seeking behavior—profits are kept modest so that gains flow to the broader economy, not just shareholders.
As a result, China’s economic growth benefits workers, consumers, and communities—not just an investor class. And this is economic democracy in practice. It’s a system built to serve the real economy and the people (today and into the future), not only the financial elites.
In China, success doesn’t mean endless profit extraction. It means upgrading industry, building infrastructure, meeting people’s needs, and sustaining long-term stability.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) sees the economy as a tool for national development and social uplift—not a playground for hedge funds and billionaire dynasties.
Antitrust enforcement is real. Predatory consolidation is checked. Tech giants are reined in, not worshipped.
On climate and ecological action—China leads
While Western leaders make speeches at COP summits, China builds:
The world’s largest and most advanced renewable energy infrastructure, including wind, solar, and hydroelectric.
Massive land reclamation and reforestation programs, turning desert into green landscapes.
The world’s leading EV and battery industry, including next-generation IoT-integrated electric vehicles, charging networks, and high-tech component manufacturing.
Ultra-efficient gas turbines and high-tech coal plants that push thermal efficiency far beyond Western norms—even as China scales down coal dependence.
Nationwide high-speed rail and electrified transport that radically reduce per capita emissions.
By scale, speed, and seriousness, China’s action on climate and environment puts most Western countries to shame.
This system isn’t perfect, and it’s not “democracy” in the liberal Western sense. But in many respects, it’s far more democratic in substance—especially economically—than what we see in countries where wealth and power are concentrated in a tiny financial oligarchy that controls both the media and political parties.
Conclusion: Real democracy is about outcomes and solving problems
In Western liberal democracies, political rights are emphasized—yet economic rights are often ignored. In China, while the political system is different, the material outcomes reflect a far broader distribution of well-being, opportunity, and ecological responsibility.
China shows what happens when a government governs for the many—not the few. Its flat stock market is not a sign of failure. It’s a sign that profits are being redistributed, needed infrastructure is being built, and people are being lifted up. It’s what economic democracy looks like when directed by a state that treats good planning, not speculation, as the engine of progress.
One might even conclude real democracy and good governance is about meeting the genuine needs of ‘the moral majority’ over the long haul for the good of all citizens, not only a few.
President Xi Jinping and the China Ministries emphasize this people centred approach at all times.
Full text Global Civilization Initiative. Path Towards Modernization–Xi Jinping’s keynote address at the CPC 2023
Polarization or common prosperity? Pure materialistic pursuit or coordinated material and cultural-ethical advancement? Draining the pond to catch the fish or creating harmony between man and nature? Zero-sum game or win-win cooperation? Copying other countries’ development model or achieving independent development in light of national conditions? What kind of modernization do we need and how can we achieve it? Confronted with these questions, political parties as an important force steering and driving the modernization process are duty bound to provide answers. Here, I wish to share some of my observations.
We must put the people first and ensure modernization is people-centered. The people are the creators of history and are the strongest bedrock and force in advancing modernization. The ultimate goal of modernization is people’s free and well-rounded development. For a modernization path to work and work well, it must put the people first. Modernization is not only about indicators and statistics on the paper but more about the delivery of a happy and stable life for the people. With a focus on the people’s aspirations for a better life and further progress of civilization, political parties should strive to achieve material abundance, political integrity, cultural-ethical enrichment, social stability, and pleasant living environments so that modernization will better address the concerns and meet diversified needs of the people. In this way, modernization will promote the sustainable development of humanity by not only increasing the wellbeing of this generation but also protecting the rights and interest of future generations.
https://english.news.cn/20230316/31e80d5da3cd48bea63694cee5156d47/c.html
Further promoting Sinicization of Marxism 2021
In his speech to mark the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China on July 1, Xi Jinping, general secretary of the CPC Central Committee, said: “At the fundamental level, the capability of our Party and the strengths of socialism with Chinese characteristics are attributable to the fact that Marxism works.”
Xiaokang (moderately prosperous) first appeared in The Book of Songs, but Deng endowed it with the meaning of Chinese-type modernization, and thus made it a pivotal term in the development of socialism with Chinese characteristics in the era of reform and opening-up.
And Xi has highlighted the values of being people-focused, maintaining integrity, upholding justice and harmony, and seeking unity to further integrate fine traditional culture with Marxist values and thoughts.
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202111/22/WS619ace61a310cdd39bc76943.html
The Shijing (诗经) https://www.byarcadia.org/post/the-book-of-songs
Posted by: Roger | May 16 2025 0:28 utc | 63
Further to Michael Hudson: “Exposed: The Secret Deal That Started a Global Economic War!” — the truth is, there’s not much secret about it anymore. Initiatives like Project 2025 and various official documents from U.S. government departments have already laid out what’s happening. The problem is that it gets little to no attention in mainstream media, and even much of the pro-BRICS alternative media seems confused or unaware of how deep this goes.
This latest escalation comes on the heels of the new U.S. tariff agreement with China, as always with these moves. These kinds of economic weapons — tariffs, sanctions, restrictions — are deployed under the guise of “national security,” but their true purpose is to subvert the economic sovereignty of countries like Russia and China and punish their allies. The goal is to make the rest of the world fear trading with them.
For decades, Western commentators attacked China’s so-called “Great Firewall,” framing it as proof of an autocratic and censorial regime. Yet now it’s clear who the real global authoritarian is. The U.S., acting through unelected bureaucracies, has become the world’s leading force for suppressing technological freedom and imposing control. It’s increasingly accurate to describe it as an extraterritorial, coercive regime — the number one global terrorist, if we’re honest about what it’s doing.
HEADS UP: AI Tech Sovereignty Under Fire – US Escalates Global AI Chip Sanctions
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce Official Press Release:
https://www.bis.gov/press-release/department-commerce-rescinds-biden-era-artificial-intelligence-diffusion-rule-strengthens-chip-related
On May 15, 2025, the U.S. Department of Commerce issued a press release confirming a major shift in AI export policy. First, it formally revoked the Biden-era AI Diffusion Rule, which would have imposed limits on the global spread of U.S. AI technologies. According to the Department, the rule “would have stifled American innovation and saddled companies with burdensome regulatory requirements,” and it would have “undermined U.S. diplomatic relations with dozens of countries.” Under Secretary Jeffery Kessler made it clear that the rule will not be enforced.
In its place, however, new and far more aggressive export control guidelines have been announced. The U.S. now explicitly warns that using Huawei Ascend chips anywhere in the world is a violation of U.S. export controls. This includes Chinese companies operating within China’s own borders. Additionally, the U.S. has declared that even allowing American-made chips to be used in training or inference of Chinese AI models constitutes a serious export violation. The justification offered is familiar: US National Security grounds to “keep technology out of the hands of adversaries,” to “protect supply chains from diversion tactics,” and to “maintain U.S. global AI dominance.”
The implications are staggering. We are now witnessing the global lockdown of AI sovereignty. In practical terms, countries are being told they may only use Nvidia chips and only run U.S.-approved AI models. Any attempt to use Huawei Ascend hardware — even for legitimate, non-military purposes — will be treated as a criminal offense under U.S. extraterritorial law. Companies and institutions that fail to comply risk being added to the Entity List, effectively cutting them off from the global financial system and future access to advanced technologies. Executives could face personal sanctions and even arrest if they travel to U.S.-aligned jurisdictions.
This isn’t just about China or U.S. companies. It’s about the future of AI for every other nation. Take Malaysia, for example — a key data center hub in Southeast Asia. Many organizations there want to use Huawei hardware to run Chinese open-source models like DeepSeek, which are more cost-effective and locally optimized. But under the new rules, that would be illegal. Even running Chinese models on Nvidia chips is now restricted. In effect, we are being forced — under threat of criminalization — to buy only from Nvidia and run only U.S.-approved models. This is not a security policy. It’s the criminalization of technological independence.
Multiply that situation across every self-respecting nation on Earth. AI is fast becoming critical infrastructure, as essential as water, power, or transport. Accepting these new U.S. restrictions means surrendering that infrastructure to the control of a foreign government. This is not “leadership” in AI — it is monopoly enforced by decree.
Global blowback is inevitable. China’s only rational response is to accelerate its efforts to decouple technologically and financially from the U.S.-dominated order. Ironically, in trying to isolate China and Huawei, the U.S. may end up isolating itself. We’re likely to see the emergence of entirely new non-U.S. ecosystems — alternative hardware, models, platforms, and financial systems — as a direct response to this overreach.
For years, the West mocked China’s Great Firewall as a sign of repression. But in hindsight, it served a protective function — shielding Chinese institutions from coercive U.S. policies and the extractive logic of rentier capitalism. Now the rest of the world is beginning to understand the need to do the same.
To summarize, the new U.S. policy effectively declares that using Huawei Ascend chips anywhere is a violation of export rules. Using Nvidia chips to train or run Chinese AI models is also prohibited. The only legally compliant setup now allowed is to use Nvidia chips with U.S.-approved AI models. This amounts to an attempt at total monopolistic control over global AI — enforced through legal threats, sanctions, and the weaponization of regulatory systems.
Nothing about this direction is healthy or sustainable — but for now, it’s the reality we’re facing.
Posted by: Roger | May 16 2025 1:39 utc | 70
Everything is inter-connected — The Deep State and Techno-Fascists are still running the US Government.
National Security as a Pretext: The New Cold War Strategy Undermining Global Sovereignty
In recent remarks, economist Michael Hudson @ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pq8z8ojSmas laid bare a disturbing pattern in U.S. foreign economic policy: the weaponization of “national security” to erode the sovereignty of other nations under the guise of trade rules, tariffs, sanctions, and export controls. This approach, pioneered with Britain, is now being extended across the West, systematically coercing countries to fall in line with Washington’s Cold War strategy against Russia and China.
1. Britain as the Prototype
Hudson points out that Britain has long served as a gateway for U.S. geopolitical strategy in Europe. Recently, Washington negotiated with London to adopt trade rules—framed as “national security” measures—that bar imports from China if they could hypothetically be used for military purposes. No explicit mention of China was needed; the intent was clear. Anything from cloth to semiconductors can be deemed a national security risk if it suits U.S. strategic goals.
The point wasn’t the tariffs themselves, as Trump admitted. Rather, tariffs serve as leverage—punishment for non-compliance and incentives for “givebacks” in the form of political alignment. What the U.S. really seeks is subordination to its geopolitical vision.
2. Coercive Alignment Under Economic Duress
Germany appears to be following the same trajectory under leaders like Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck, who—like Keir Starmer in the UK—do not reflect popular sentiment, as evidenced by widespread protests and plummeting poll numbers. These leaders, Hudson argues, have been groomed or promoted precisely because they serve U.S. interests first, even when it runs counter to their own national economic wellbeing or democratic will.
Countries are now faced with a stark choice: align with a shrinking, militarized U.S. economy, or face disruption in trade, investment, and potential sanctions. The U.S. strategy is not subtle—either you join the anti-China, anti-Russia bloc, or suffer economic instability.
3. “National Security” – A Blank Check for Economic Dictatorship
The genius—or danger—of invoking “national security” lies in its total ambiguity. As Hudson notes, the term is now so vague it can justify nearly anything: banning Chinese imports, criminalizing student protests, detaining immigrants, and restructuring global trade.
By wielding national security as a catch-all justification, the U.S. has granted itself unilateral authority to dictate what other countries can trade, whom they can trade with, and under what terms. This amounts to a form of centralized economic planning—only not by democratic institutions, but by the U.S. military-industrial complex and what Hudson refers to as the “deep state.”
4. Global South: The Primary Victim
Perhaps the most egregious consequence of this system is its impact on the Global South. Already burdened by debt, many developing nations are being pushed further into economic hardship. Denied access to Chinese markets and investment, these countries are unable to generate sufficient foreign exchange to service their dollar-denominated debts.
To comply with IMF or Western demands, they are forced to impose austerity—cutting domestic social programs, slashing public investment, and prioritizing debt repayment to foreign bondholders. In short, they are being told to put the interests of the U.S. and global capital above their own people.
This is the real meaning of “loss of sovereignty.” Countries are no longer free to set their own fiscal or monetary policies in service of national development. Instead, they are compelled to act in accordance with U.S. strategic priorities—or suffer economic retaliation.
Conclusion: A Cold War Built on Economic Blackmail
Hudson’s analysis reveals that the so-called “rules-based international order” has become a euphemism for U.S. coercion. Under the pretext of national security, the United States is attempting to reconstruct the global economy into a militarized Cold War apparatus, forcing nations to choose between autonomy and alignment with a declining empire.
The ultimate cost is the sovereignty of nations—large and small—who are being dragged into a global confrontation they neither started nor benefit from. If this trajectory continues, we may be witnessing not just the breakdown of diplomacy, but the end of economic self-determination for much of the world.
Posted by: Roger | May 16 2025 2:06 utc | 73
THE THEORY – “All the major problems with high renewable energy penetration are being solved. Your belief system regarding energy is stuck in the early 90’s.” @ Posted by: Jon_in_AU | 77
THE TRIGGER – “Solar and wind power is not only expensible but its undependable in the extreme.”
Posted by: tobias cole | May 15 2025 14:50 utc | 16
I believe what Tobias was getting at is this: solar and wind power are not just expensive when fully accounted for—they’re also highly variable and unreliable. And that volatility can make electricity grids fundamentally unstable and unsafe, especially in the absence of massive, scalable storage systems.
While it’s often claimed that renewables are the cheapest form of energy, the full picture tells a different story. Without sufficient grid-scale storage—and none currently exists at the scale needed anywhere in the world—renewables struggle to provide the reliability and security essential for modern energy systems.
Moreover, the risks go beyond just insufficient backup. The structural and systemic challenges of maintaining a stable grid with high RE penetration are far from resolved. The widely cited 100% wind-water-solar (WWS) proposals, like those promoted by Mark Jacobson, remain theoretical models—unbuildable in real-world terms beyond small-scale or localized systems.
So before repeating the claim that RE grids are “cheap,” I invite you to examine this recent analysis. And if you still believe renewables alone can support a secure, reliable, and affordable national grid, please support that view with verifiable data and sound reasoning.
Did Renewables Cause the Blackout in Spain?
Last week, Europe experienced its worst blackout in living memory, which plunged tens of millions of people across Spain and Portugal into darkness for up to 18 hours. Life screeched to a halt, with trains, traffic lights, ATMs, phone connections, and internet access failing. In the aftermath, many important questions have arisen, including: what caused such a widespread grid failure, and how can Europe and other nations prepare for the next time an event like this happens?
In today’s episode, Nate is joined by Pedro Prieto to discuss the recent blackout in the Iberian Peninsula, exploring its causes, impacts, and the role of renewable energy in the stability of the electric grid. Prieto highlights the societal and infrastructural challenges that his home country faced, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach to energy management, as well as the interconnectedness of energy systems and societal resilience
Prieto wrote a book on EROI and solar voltaic and energy systems almost 15 years ago, kind of predicting that this would be one possible outcome of overly scaling intermittent energy technology.
I remember very much the phrase of Upton Sinclair when he said: “It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on him not understanding it.”
“The problem is that wind and solar are intermittent energies. I mean also hydro it’s a renewable energy, but the difference with solar and wind is that hydro is not intermittent. It’s predictable. It’s as predictable-like a combined cycle natural gas plant kind of. That’s it. You can turn it on and off when you need it. They are much prepared to be smooth, reliable, and supporting the whole system. All the dams were full and they were able to turbine and to generate electricity as much as they have in the installed power.
BUT they were not generating the maximum, instead there was a lot of WS, intermittent energy given to the network. So that’s why we were exporting to the three countries with which we have interconnections, international connections. And this is what happens. I mean something has happened that has unbalanced the network.
And the problem of the networks is that we need a very tiny deviation in frequency or in voltage to have a huge problem. We are working here in 50 hertz or 50 cycles per second. In all Europe, we have 50 cycles per second. If you deviate plus minus 0.1%, this is a problem. If you deviate plus minus 0.2%, this is a big problem and the grid system starts warning the operators. If it is plus minus 0.3%, then you have to switch off many, many elements for security reasons. Among them, nuclear power plants.
Did Renewables Cause the Blackout in Spain? with Pedro Prieto – an actual expert on the topic/s.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UX815YnSt0k
Posted by: Roger | May 16 2025 5:14 utc | 89
My own view:
Intermittency and instability have exposed significant vulnerabilities in the grid system, with multiple interconnected factors contributing to recent failures. Advocates of renewable energy (RE) often claim that wind and solar are the cheapest forms of energy available. Some go as far as suggesting that entire countries—or even the whole world—can be powered solely by renewables. However, this belief does not hold up in practice.
The reality is that affordability does not automatically translate to reliability, safety, or energy security. In this context, “cheap” can mean poorly integrated, unstable, and vulnerable to disruption—especially when there is insufficient infrastructure to manage supply and demand fluctuations.
The widespread narrative that renewables alone can sustain a nation’s energy needs is overly simplistic and misleading. It relies heavily on theoretical models and ideal conditions, rather than practical experience and real-world performance. This disconnect between promise and performance has led to a collective illusion—one driven by optimism, political agendas, and marketing spin, rather than grounded, systems-based planning.
The recent ten-hour utility blackout across the Iberian Peninsula highlights a growing vulnerability within Europe’s energy infrastructure—not just in terms of power generation, but more critically, in the transmission of electricity. While weather likely played a role in the outage, it also exposes a broader issue affecting renewable-heavy countries like Germany and Spain: intermittent supply, outdated grids, and overproduction.
Germany has recently again become Europe’s largest CO₂ emitter, not because of a lack of renewables, but due to the need to rely on coal during periods when solar and wind production dip—especially in the absence of Russian gas and decommissioned nuclear power. Similarly, Spain and Portugal, hailed as EU leaders in green energy, were sourcing 80% of their electricity from renewables just before the blackout. Yet both regions are now confronting the harsh reality that overproduction from wind and solar, without adequate grid infrastructure, can destabilize entire systems.
A major flaw lies in Europe’s aging electrical grid, much of which was built in the post-war 1950s and 60s and never designed to handle the variable and decentralized nature of modern renewable sources. While Angela Merkel’s government once promised thousands of kilometers of new “electricity highways” (Strom Autobahnen) as part of the Energiewende, the promised budget of one trillion euros was never established. As a result, the critical grid expansion never materialized—neither in Germany nor in other EU states.
This infrastructure gap is now colliding with the electrification push, particularly in mobility. Electric vehicle adoption is slowing as consumer enthusiasm wanes, but the underlying strain on the grid remains. Europe’s Continental European Synchronous Area—a vast network extending from Türkiye to North Africa—runs on a finely balanced alternating current of about 50 Hz. Any overload, such as Monday’s in Spain, risks frequency destabilization. To prevent blackouts, surplus energy is exported, but insufficient interconnectors—or too many—can both trigger wider instability. Some experts now fear that adding more interconnectors could actually increase the likelihood of continent-wide domino blackouts across 30+ countries.
Ultimately, the ambition of green energy must be matched with realistic investment in transmission capacity and a well-timed rollout. Without this, Europe’s green dreams may keep short-circuiting under pressure.
Germany’s energy transition, initiated by Angela Merkel’s government in 2011 and aimed at shifting the country’s power supply to primarily wind and solar energy, is facing mounting challenges. Despite a record expansion of renewable infrastructure, electricity production from renewables in the first quarter of 2025 dropped 16% compared to the previous year—the lowest output since 2021. Particularly weak wind conditions in February and March caused offshore wind production to plummet by 31% and onshore by 22%. As a result, Germany was forced to ramp up power generation from coal, oil, and gas, significantly increasing CO₂ emissions. The country’s electricity became dirtier than at any point since the winter of 2018, contradicting the goals of the energy transition.
These issues came to a head during Easter week, which showcased the structural flaws in Germany’s reliance on weather-dependent renewables. On Easter Sunday, solar panels produced a massive oversupply of electricity—about 15 gigawatts more than needed, equivalent to the output of a dozen nuclear power plants. Since electricity must be consumed as it is generated, this surplus overwhelmed local and regional grids, especially in southwestern Germany. The excess led to negative electricity prices, with rates falling as low as -5 cents per kilowatt-hour. Germany even had to pay neighbouring countries like France and Belgium to absorb the surplus in order to prevent a grid collapse.
The most critical issue is that Germany’s vast network of solar installations cannot be easily regulated or disconnected when generation exceeds demand. This inability to curtail production during peak generation periods not only risks grid instability and localized outages, but also inflates the overall cost of power production. The Easter scenario starkly illustrated how the current model of the energy transition—despite its ambitions—can create vulnerabilities that contradict its environmental and economic objectives.
Take Spain, for example—a country of nearly 60 million people that needs a stable, 24/7 electricity supply. Yet it’s operating on the edge of collapse every single day, especially during daylight and peak demand hours. Spain’s grid is directly linked to the wider European network, and every interconnected country is facing similar challenges. The uncomfortable truth is that electricity supply in Europe is becoming less secure, not more—despite massive overbuilding of renewable energy (RE) capacity. It’s a disgrace, especially as consumers across the Western world face skyrocketing electricity prices.
The deeper the penetration of variable wind and solar, the more unstable the grid becomes—because these intermittent sources can destabilize the system in milliseconds.
What’s more shocking is that when Spain’s grid collapsed, electricity demand wasn’t even particularly high. Spain was actually exporting excess wind and solar power to three neighboring countries via interconnectors. Out of a total installed capacity of 130 GW, only about 10 GW is hydro (with 4 GW of that being pumped hydro storage). Wind and solar now make up 80 GW of that total—but even at peak demand, only around 40 GW is ever used, and typical peaks are just 28 GW. On the day of the blackout, RE production was only 23 GW—well below capacity—yet they were still exporting power. Battery storage for the grid is negligible.
Despite already having a 45 GW surplus, Spain has another 50 GW of wind and solar capacity in the pipeline—still being forced into an aging, overstretched grid.
The problem isn’t a lack of supply. In fact, wholesale electricity prices at the time of the blackout were negative. But backup gas turbines were in cold shutdown and couldn’t spin up quickly enough to replace the intermittent unstable wind and solar supply. Hydro was underutilized, and pumped hydro storage wasn’t available in time to stabilize the grid either. France’s nuclear contribution was near zero. On that day, 80% of Spain’s power came from intermittent sources.
Interconnectors, often hailed as a solution, can actually worsen the situation. Overproduction was part of the problem, but the real danger came from sudden fluctuations in wind and solar generation that impacted the critical 50 Hz system. Many parts of the grid—especially the interconnectors—are designed to protect themselves by automatically disconnecting when frequency or voltage deviates too much. Why? Because failure to do so risks catastrophic physical damage.
Could it literally explode? Yes—large generators contain heavy rotating machinery that can weigh tens of tons. If synchronization is lost, they can burn out or explode. Even high-voltage cables can catch fire. That’s how a local failure can cascade into a total grid-wide blackout. Portugal and France grids disconnected in a millisecond then the entire Spanish grid collapsed into a backout for 12-18 hours. The whole country was brought to it’s knees. Everything stopped working even water supply was cut – Banking retail gas stations trains traffic lights everything came to instant halt.
The uncomfortable truth is this: the higher the share of wind and solar in the supply mix, the higher the risks to grid stability. And we’re nowhere near ready to manage them.
And tell me this: Has your power bills been getting cheaper since they have increased the RE wind and solar plants to your grid? No they haven’t. They have probably at least doubled in recent years. Renewable energy electricity national grid supply is not only not cheap, it is becoming increasingly more unstable and unreliable.
Posted by: Roger | May 16 2025 6:10 utc | 93
Thanks Jon_in_AU. I’ll spot check your research suggestions but I have already been there and to others accumulating research for many years. I’ve heard and seen a lot. Did you listen to Pedro though? Or Charlie Hall? Upton Sinclair’s riposte has a philosophical underpinning, whether one is employed or not, that was not the point. Have another look because you have that ass backwards and upside down. Scepticism is a healthy trait to retain. I am not aware of any interconnected network / grid where the ‘solutions’ you mention already exist. I’ll keep looking.
I’m aware of all the variations for battery back-up storage and note various prototype installations at small scale. South Australia included which only really provides price arbitrage and not grid stability during critical periods. Spain EU like issues still apply to South Australia and the interconnected states. The more RE supply comes online and as more coal fired stations are shuttered the risk increases exponentially of unexpected breakdowns in Australia’s grid network too. Everyone promises they have the technology to manage all situations. So did the Spanish Portuguese and French and Germans make the very same promises they had it all under control.
While electricity is so “cheap” in Australia the Govt federal and state have been handing out household and business subsidies for years now and still prices are at unaffordable record levels. While South Australia has the most expensive electricity in the nation. Wind and Solar are not cheap.
A small note about the other ‘responses’:
Cheap ≠ Reliable: A Dangerous Misconception. When grid integration is poor and storage is insufficient, “cheap” energy becomes a liability, not an asset.
Wind and solar are inherently intermittent and weather-dependent, creating large and unpredictable fluctuations in output. These fluctuations destabilize grids that rely on finely balanced alternating current (e.g., Europe’s 50 Hz system).
Outdated Infrastructure can’t handle the decentralized, variable inputs from renewables. Promised upgrades—like Germany’s “electricity highways”—were underfunded or abandoned, leaving the core infrastructure fragile and overburdened.
Interconnectors are supposed to balance supply between countries. But too many, or too few, can both trigger instability. When supply fluctuates too fast (as with solar or wind drops), interconnectors can: Auto-disconnect to protect themselves triggering wider continental blackouts
Overproduction Causes Instability, Not Cheap Abundance
There’s no off-switch during overproduction surges from wind and solar arrays, meaning the system must scramble to absorb or dump excess energy—at great cost and risk.
Despite heavy RE expansion, battery and pumped hydro storage capacity remains far too low to: Stabilize the grid during low-production periods (e.g., windless winters) and to absorb dangerous surpluses during oversupply.
Blackouts Despite Low Demand? Yes — and Because of Too Much Renewable Power.
A common assumption is that blackouts occur due to a shortage of electricity, especially during times of high demand. But in Spain’s recent grid collapse, the blackout happened during low demand — a time when the country was actually exporting electricity to three neighboring countries.
This paradox reveals a critical design flaw in the renewable-heavy grid: overproduction from wind and solar can destabilize the system just as dangerously as underproduction.
Because wind and solar power are weather-dependent and feed energy into the grid when available—not when needed—they frequently create massive surges in supply during times of low demand. When this happens, wholesale electricity prices can plunge into the negative. This is not just a market anomaly—it’s a built-in feature of how variable renewables affect the system.
But here’s the dangerous part: negative pricing forces traditional generators—gas, coal, hydro, and even nuclear—to disconnect from the grid. Not for technical reasons, but for economic survival. Under the current market structure, these providers simply cannot afford to operate at a loss for long. The capitalist system demands they shut down when the price turns negative. Yet these conventional power plants are exactly what the grid depends on for stability, inertia, and immediate dispatchable backup.
Unlike wind and solar, which are inherently intermittent and unpredictable, coal, gas, hydro, and nuclear plants are designed to deliver steady, controllable output. Their supply is not weather-dependent and does not fluctuate randomly. Instead, these sources provide stable, synchronous power at a consistent 50Hz, which is essential for maintaining the grid’s frequency balance. They can also respond to demand spikes or dips with precision, making them indispensable for grid reliability. In contrast, wind and solar cannot be ramped up or down on demand and often generate power when it isn’t needed, destabilizing the system unless backed by robust balancing mechanisms.
That’s exactly what happened: Spain’s backup gas turbines were in cold shutdown and couldn’t ramp up in time to stabilize the voltage when wind and solar output began fluctuating rapidly. Hydro was underused, and nuclear supply was near zero. The result? A cascading frequency deviation across interconnectors, followed by the automatic disconnection of France and Portugal, and a full grid collapse within milliseconds.
In short: the very market incentives that are supposed to reward efficiency and price-competitiveness now actively undermine grid reliability. The more wind and solar is added—without corresponding grid modernization, storage, and regulation—the more unstable and vulnerable the entire system becomes.
Grid Blackouts Are Physical Catastrophes
This isn’t just about economics or politics. A grid failure causes: Infrastructure damage, Total systems failure: water, transport, banking, emergency services all stop, and Massive economic and human costs—within seconds.
Public Is Paying the Price—Literally
Despite claims of falling RE costs, electricity prices have skyrocketed across Europe. Consumers now face unstable service and rising bills—a contradiction to the green promise of affordable, clean power.
Bottom Line
Europe’s and the world’s headlong rush into variable renewable energy—without matching it with robust grid upgrades, storage, and regulation—has created a fragile, overextended energy system. The deeper the RE penetration, the greater the instability risk. What was sold as a solution is now revealing itself as a structural vulnerability.
In theory wind and solar power are great. So was nuclear power great in theory but it only got to 10% of global supply despite being so ‘cheap’ you couldn’t meter it.
Posted by: Roger | May 16 2025 7:12 utc | 96
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