An Immediate Peace Is The Best One Ukraine Can Ever Get
The attritional war in Ukraine is moving towards a new phase. The Ukrainian army is crumbling but its leadership, with the support of some Europeans, is unwilling to concede its defeat.
There are still very unrealistic views in the West about the losses and capabilities in this conflict. They prevent those who have them from acknowledging the urgent need for peace negotiations.
In a new analysis Alex Vershinin, an expert from RUSI, provides sound arguments and numbers for those who support an immediate end of the war.
In military circles Vershinin is a well known capacity:
Lt Col (Retd) Alex Vershinin has 10 years of frontline experience in Korea, Iraq and Afghanistan. For the last decade before his retirement, he worked as a modelling and simulations officer in concept development and experimentation for NATO and the US Army.
Vershinin is working for the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), the official think tank of the British military. His experience with modeling and simulations allows him to take the 'big picture' view.
In June 2022 RUSI published his piece on The Return of Industrial Warfare (Jun 17 2022) in which he warned about of lack of an industrial base in the West to sustain a war in Ukraine against Russia. I have referred to the piece in some of my writings:
Russia Is Winning The Industrial Warfare Race - Moon of Alabama, Sep 14 2023
A warning that Russia will outproduce the West was given back in June 2022 when Alex Vershinin of RUSI issued a note about The Return of Industrial Warfare:
The winner in a prolonged war between two near-peer powers is still based on which side has the strongest industrial base. A country must either have the manufacturing capacity to build massive quantities of ammunition or have other manufacturing industries that can be rapidly converted to ammunition production. Unfortunately, the West no longer seems to have either.It has become too expensive for the West to regain that capability.
That Russia was running out of stuff was always wishful thinking, not fact based analysis. On that point it took the media more than a year to catch up with reality. On other aspects of the the war, casualty numbers come to mind, the media are still miles behind.
In another RUSI piece published in March 2024 Vershinin repeated his warning. I referred to it in May 2024:
When it came out in March I had read and linked to the latest Alex Vershinin piece at RUSI:
The Attritional Art of War: Lessons from the Russian War on Ukraine - RUSI
The attritional character of the war was obvious since Putin ordered the de-militarization of Ukraine. It is finally getting some discussion.
Vershinin is thus right in that the war in Ukraine is a war of attrition. But it is a one-sided one. It is only NATO and its proxy force Ukraine which get attrited while the Russian military gains in quality and quantity.
Still, it's a must read:
The fastest way to lose a war of attrition is to focus on manoeuvre, expending valuable resources on near-term territorial objectives.This is exactly what Ukraine has done so far (Bakhmut, Krinky).
...
The 'west' (i.e. the U.S.) has lost its mind on the issue:If the West is serious about a possible great power conflict, it needs to take a hard look at its industrial capacity, mobilisation doctrine and means of waging a protracted war, rather than conducting wargames covering a single month of conflict and hoping that the war will end afterwards.
Shortly after that writing the Ukrainian army launched its disastrous incursion into Russia's Kursk region. It was, after Bakhmut and Krinki, the third large operation which wasted Ukrainian lives and resources on a large scale for temporary propaganda gains.
A months ago Vershinin came out with a third piece that covers the issue. RUSI refrained, for whatever reason, from publishing it. It first appeared in Russia Matters under the title:
Battlefield Conditions Impacting Ukraine Peace Negotiations - Russia Matters, Apr 18 2025
It received little response. It was later republished under a different headline by Responsible Statecraft where I finally noticed it:
Ukraine’s battlefield position is deteriorating fast - Responsible Statecraft, May 5 2025
Should Kyiv collapse, the Russian army will surge forward, pushing the line of contact deeper into Ukraine and peace terms will get worse
Vershinin starts by pointing out the geopolitical importance for the West of wining (or losing) the war:
Historically in many conflicts, peace negotiations lasted years, even as the war raged on, such as during the Korean and Vietnam wars. Thus, the balance of power, measured in resources, losses and quality of strategic leadership are critical to the outcome of negotiations.For Western powers, this carries serious consequences. They have staked their reputation on this conflict and with it, the fate of the rules-based world order. The Global South and the multipolar world order is waiting in the wings to take over. Failure to achieve victory has the potential to fatally undermine that order and remove the West from global leadership, which it has enjoyed for the last several centuries.
He goes on to describe the nature of the war in Ukraine:
The war in Ukraine is now attritional. These types of wars are won not by capturing terrain, but by careful management of resources, preserving one’s own while destroying the enemy’s. The exchange rate of losses must not only be favorable to one side, but it must also account for the total reserves available to the enemy. The path to victory lies in the ability to replace losses while fielding new forces and sustaining the civilian economy and morale.
...
For this war, terrain is far less important. Fighting is often centered on the same patch of ground with only a little movement until one side is no longer able to sustain the conflict.
...
Strategic leadership is vital because it guides the resource management of the conflict. Failure to identify strategic goals and wasting resources on irrelevant objectives causes the odds of victory slip away.
Vershinin follows up by a summary of each side's losses and their capacity to maintain the conflict. He is one of the few serious military analysts who dares to publish reasonable numbers for casualties:
Russia appears to be able to replace its losses and still grow the size of its army.
...
This currently averages to about 3,600 dead [Russian soldiers] per month. Historically, for every dead there are four wounded, so another 452,000 wounded needs to be added to the Russian count, which equates to a monthly loss of 14,400 or 18,000 total. However, the same data indicates that out of these, three quarters usually return to duty (RTD) after treatment. To break it down, Russian forces are suffering 7,200 permanent losses and 10,800 RTD per month. At the same time, Russians are recruiting 30,000 volunteers a month, plus the wounded who have recovered. This translates into growth of 24,000 soldiers every month, including RTD. Even if Russian losses are double what Mediazona was able to count, the Russian army is still expanding.
Over 40 months of war this sums up to a total of 144,000 dead Russian soldiers and the same number of seriously wounded.
In conclusion Russia can sustain the war at its current and even a higher level.
The Ukrainian position is much worse:
My view is that the Ukrainian senior political leadership has spent too much time trying to attain public relations objectives at a significant cost to military operations. The tremendous losses of resources, especially human, have significantly depleted Ukraine’s combat capability and places long term combat potential at risk. This is doubly challenging because Ukraine started out with fewer resources. Russia has three times the population of Ukraine, and in the case of artillery ammunition, it vastly outproduces not only Ukraine, but the entire West by a ratio of three to one.
Vershinin details the horrific Ukrainian losses in Bakhmut and Krinki. They add up:
Ukraine’s total losses are hard to assess. The Jamestown Foundation estimated that Ukraine had mobilized 2 million men back in July 2023, and the number should be approaching 3 million by now. Most estimates place the Ukrainian fielded army at about 1 million men, while Zelenskyy claimed to be fielding 880,000. The official Ukrainian losses of 43,000 are unrealistic in the light of previous numbers. For a more realistic estimate, the “Antiseptic” Telegram channel has one of the few databases that compare current and prewar satellite photos of select Ukrainian cemeteries.
...
The final estimate is about 769,000 dead, and based on historical data, likely another 769,000 wounded who will never recover enough to go back to the front.
...
This matches the Jamestown Foundation’s estimate. Some 1.5 million are permanent losses, another 400,000-600,000 wounded recovering in hospitals, leaving 1 million to 800,000 still in the field.This loss rate means that Ukraine is running out of trained, motivated formations.
(Remembering anecdotes from the battle field I doubt that Russian and Ukrainian care for wounded soldiers is on an equal level. Ukraine likely has much higher relative numbers of seriously, non-recoverable wounded that Russia.)
It is not only the irreplaceable losses of men but also of the material means to continue fighting:
Equipment is also running out. The West, whose military support is keeping Ukraine in the fight, appears to have emptied out its equipment storage, and there is little left to give.
...
With mounting manpower and equipment shortfalls, it is difficult to see how Ukraine can hold on without the direct intervention of Western, and specifically U.S., forces. Especially with Ukrainian political leadership continuing to prioritize PR instead of military objectives.
Which brings us to the issue of negotiations and how to make the best of them:
Western powers have staked the liberal world order on the outcome of this war. Negotiated peace on Russian terms today would be bad, but betting on an unlikely improvement in battlefield conditions and losing would be far worse.
With especially European powers unwilling to give in, the war may turn, from a western view, to a worse end:
Right now, Russians are demanding Crimea and four of Ukraine’s oblasts, a ban on Ukraine entering NATO and the EU and guaranteed rights for Russian-speakers. These demands are for regions where the Russian army already controls 60% or more of the territory. Should Ukraine collapse, the Russian army will surge forward, pushing the line of contact deeper into Ukraine and terms can get worse. There is a good chance that Russia will go for all of Novorossiya, adding Kharkiv, Odesa, Mykolaiv, Poltava and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts to its demands, as well as referendums on succession in Trans Carpathia, and if the political climate in Romania is favorable, for Northern Bukovina, and other Romanian-speaking areas as well, buying off select NATO members with territories to split the unity of alliance. This will reduce Ukraine to a landlocked rump state based around Kyiv, Chernihiv and Lviv.
Vershinin's current view of where the war might end, should Ukraine fail to negotiate, is consistent with the prediction I made on the very day the war started:
Looking at this map I believe that the most advantageous end state for Russia would be the creation of a new independent country, call it Novorussiya, on the land east of the Dnieper and south along the coast that holds a majority ethnic Russian population and that, in 1922, had been attached to the Ukraine by Lenin. That state would be politically, culturally and militarily aligned with Russia.
biggerThis would eliminate Ukrainian access to the Black Sea and create a land bridge towards the Moldavian breakaway Transnistria which is under Russian protection.
Vershinin closes with this question:
The real question is: Can Ukraine gain an acceptable, if bitter, peace now, or will it keep fighting, risking a military collapse and a far worse Russian dictate later?
My view is that Ukraine could gain peace now but will likely miss the chance due the unwillingness of its current leadership to concede defeat and due to the irrational fear of European leaders to lose their imagined importance in this world.
Or, as Gordon Hahn summarizes:
Unfortunately, Moscow’s limited need for either a ceasefire or peace at this point, the Trump administration’s lack of a strategy, and the Europeans‘ and Ukrainians‘ insincerity and political speculation on the war bodes ill for an agreement on either a ceasefire or direct Russian-Ukrainian talks any time soon. Moscow will be forced to intensify the pressure on Kiev. Trump will continue to thrash here and there. Europe will insist on discrediting itself further, becoming even more irrelevant — a ‘coalition of the willing’ to do something different and of limited purpose. And poor Ukraine will be subjected to more suffering, bringing the collapse of its defense lines, army, regime, and state even closer than it is now.
Posted by b on May 12, 2025 at 15:45 UTC | Permalink
next page »For what I know about Europeans leaders ; if there is a reviewed, proven and demonstrated best solution for a problem, they will do otherwise.
Posted by: Savonarole | May 12 2025 16:04 utc | 2
I think Vance and most practical analysts (in the middle or at least not on the dreamer-coper side of either pro-UFA/RFA), realize that (1) the UFA is not going to recover lost territory (sans a collapse, which is now very unlikely, at least soon) and (2) that the RFA cannot achieve even its MINIMAL political goals on any reasonable time frame. The lines are just very VERY slatemate-ish.
So, what they want is some sort of armistice and the recognition at the line of contact. Neither R nor U needs to dissolve their "claims". But they would just settle in AT THE LINE OF CONTACT. If the RFA wanted more, they should have moved and taken it. They can't. They can't cross the Dnipro River. They are far from even threatening Zhaporizia. Pretty far from Krematorsk, Sloviansk, and Siversk also. They haven't even started the assault of Pokrovsk. And are still chewing on Toretsk and Chasiv Yar (not 100% taken even).
There is zero chance the UFA is walking out of cities, the RFA is incapable of taking. And the contrary. So both sides should settle in AT THE LINE OF CONTACT.
Posted by: Anonymous | May 12 2025 16:06 utc | 3
Today's post is in line with all serious commentary since the beginning of the SMO and points to the underlying cause - the US and European failure/refusal to take seriously Russia's European security concerns. At the start Russia said that failure of diplomacy would lead to the employment of "military-technical means" to address its concerns. Nothing has changed except Ukraine's continually worsening negotiating position.
Posted by: the pessimist | May 12 2025 16:08 utc | 4
Reading between the lines, Trump goes out of his way to talk about losses, I believe to put pressure on Putin.
Trump is remarkably transparent for a compulsive liar.
Russia will not compromise the necessary goals of the SMO.
As with the Red Sea, Trump will have to compromise his ambitions.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 12 2025 16:11 utc | 5
The SMO will not stop until the provinces are 100% secured. If opportunity permits, Odesa might be added to the mix as Ukraine ethic rules are still being aggressively pushed.
Posted by: azeclecticdog | May 12 2025 16:12 utc | 6
Ceasefire will not happen. That would revert the situation to 2021. Which was untenable.
Negotiation are useless. The empire has only stated they will rearm.
The official decree of the EU rulers is “Russia is menace, forever “. These are not the rulers to negotiate with.
Russia can talk but continue to break up the former SSR that the west is using to stage a rerun of Hitler in June 1941.
The retired O-5 lacks sympathy and imagination.
Let them talk about turning the SSR in to a Yugoslavia. That is not a country’s
Posted by: paddy | May 12 2025 16:12 utc | 7
What's your point b? That the West needs to reindustrialise, what to keep the war going forever?
Posted by: Barofsky | May 12 2025 16:14 utc | 8
Posted by: Anonymous | May 12 2025 16:06 utc | 3
########
Why should Russia settle when Ukraine cannot retake territory?
You post every day about how Russia takes territory, even during a ceasefire, and Ukraine has been non-stop losing territory for 3 years.
Drugs are bad, okay? 🍳
Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 12 2025 16:14 utc | 9
Posted by: Anonymous | May 12 2025 16:06 utc | 3
For Russia, this is not about territory but what happens in it. Rather, what does not happen like: no NATO, no Western propaganda NGOs, but equal political and ethnic rights, economic equidistance. Russia has no need to administer those territories themselves, they have plenty of land and people.
They dont even have fundamental problems with EU integration as long as the things above hold.
It seems that it is getting closer to this objective with the current push for negotiations. If not, there is plenty of time for attrition.
Posted by: alek_a | May 12 2025 16:15 utc | 10
Posted by: Anonymous | May 12 2025 16:06 utc | 3
And allow the Ukros to build up their army afterwards and allow the remains of the state into NATO, amirite?
As per your Nazi dream that you hasve reiterated on multiple occasions
Fuck off you fool.
Posted by: Night Tripper | May 12 2025 16:17 utc | 11
Posted by: alek_a | May 12 2025 16:15 utc | 10
Exactly right, but Anonymous (likely based in Western Ukraine) doesnt even hide the fact that he believes the rump must be allowed into NATO and have as big an army as it wants.
Posted by: Night Tripper | May 12 2025 16:19 utc | 12
The Nazis were not going to leave Azovstal.
They left Azovstal when the Russians forced the issue.
The Russians have demonstrated that they can breach any fortress position.
Sudzha and Avdeyevka are recent examples.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 12 2025 16:20 utc | 13
There are still very unrealistic views in the West …
My understanding they are fully aware of shortcomings and projection … their expression of unrealistic views is the game they play at a cost for Ukrainians … believe the Western war narrative of LIES. The British playing cards.
Israeli ally PKK lays down arms and voted for dissolution… will Erbil (Kurds) be free from Mossad … Türkiye leads to become a regional powerhouse and looks to cooperate with the 3 GCC states KSA-UAE-Qatar.This week a NATO FM Summit in Istanbul and UA meets RF for taking away root causes of war … Türkiye is quite biased pro Ukraine sovereignty in respect to Crimea and the Tatars.
Egypt kicked out Morsi [Erdogan MB], Sisi has strong ties $$$ to Sunni kingdom Saudi Arabia. Lebanon will become a Sunni protectorate, Syria is closely attached to Türkiye, Iraq shaped by Shia majority (Iran) … all countries will profit from major shift. Iran’s retaliatory strikes were on Erbil (Mossad HQ) and Idlib NW Syria the Khorasan terror group located near the border with Türkiye. IS-K for hire to strike at the wish of the U.S. and Israel … Kerman twin bombing and the Crocus City Hall massacre in Moscow. Plenty of terrorists to go around.
In my opinion the Ismay quote is still operative concerning US backed and led former state of Ukraine and NATO. The only way to change that is likely by force.
Posted by: chunga | May 12 2025 16:24 utc | 15
Posted by: Night Tripper | May 12 2025 16:19 utc | 12
#######
Based on his past comments, I believe Anonymous is a Yankee.
The man that NAFO left behind.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 12 2025 16:24 utc | 16
Russia will not have ensured it's security if it does not take Odessa.
Given that they appear to have the opportunity (though it would be difficult),
the name Putin will become a swear word in Russia if they fail to do so.
He conducts the war like an accountant.
Posted by: jared | May 12 2025 16:25 utc | 17
It's not about what you want. It's about what you can get. If Putin wanted more, he should have had a better war plan. Getting kicked out of Kherson? And Kiev/Kharkov environs? That showed piss poor planning. He thought he could pull a speed run in Georgia and it didn't work out. There's no soooooper seeekrit 65-D plan where Putin knew ahead of time that he was going to get bogged down in a WW1 style conflict, with massive usage of artillery, tanks, aircraft, and even men.
Putin has to deal with the here and now. The stark realities. Same as the Ukrops. Ask yourself this, just as a thought experiment (look it up on Google if you never took physics), would RFA want to continue if they were taking a single kms1 per day and looking at 50+ years to reach objectives. (Not even counting the massive issue of getting across the Dnipro.)
Oh...and "Odessa". Dream dream, Q-anon types. How they heck are you going after Odessa when you can't get Kherson? Were in it and LEFT IT because of inability to maintain GLOCs. Look at a map! Look where Odessa is. Look where Kherson is. And then look where the line of contact has been for over 2 years without advancement by either side. The Dnipro is in the way! Look at maps. Get off the chitchat comment section and LOOK.
Posted by: Anonymous | May 12 2025 16:29 utc | 18
Posted by: Anonymous | May 12 2025 16:29 utc | 18
You think any other territory not presently occupied by Russia can be pumped full of foreign troops, have NATO membership and a contain a no-limits Ukrainian army
Just say it, or are you now pretending that is not your position?
Posted by: Night Tripper | May 12 2025 16:32 utc | 19
Posted by: Savonarole | May 12 2025 16:04 utc | 2
What is a problem for the peasant is rarely view as a problem by the leaders, possibly an opportunity.
Only when the peasant become really hungry than the leaders can possibly get in trouble.
Posted by: Mario | May 12 2025 16:32 utc | 20
Excellent summary. One way or another, Odessa and the Black Sea coast will join Russia again. Most likely through a military collapse.
It is not possible to reach any reasonable peace as long as Zelensky and the Azov handlers are in power in Kiev. It is not possible to reach any reasonable peace as long as the coke heads in the west are in power. If they fall soon, the situation might change but it looks very unlikely.
I expect some kind of Vietnam-like collapse, perhaps in 2025.
Posted by: Norwegian | May 12 2025 16:38 utc | 21
19: Tripper.
Perfect example. It's not about what you want. Not about what I want. Not about what Putin wants. Not about what Z wants.
It's about what they can get. If Putin wanted to keep Western forces out of Ukraine, he should have fought better. He screwed up massively with the failed speed run. Now...he's gonna have to eat a sh$+ sandwich. Just like he did with Finland joining NATO. That's the reality in statecraft. You don't get what you WANT. You get what you can control.
Putin screwed up. He either (a) should have gotten the speed run done. Maybe with double the troops and half the points of attack...massing forces. And way better logistics planning. -OR- (b) Just not gone in.
As it is, Putin is going to have to deal with a NON "deNazified" Ukraine. And one that has arguably been born as a nation/language, etc. FROM this war. He turned a slightly crappy sandwich into a very crappy one. Now, he's gonna have to eat it. Not because he wants to...or I want him to. But because he can't advance faster than a snail. Literally...way slower than a snail!
Posted by: Anonymous | May 12 2025 16:39 utc | 22
The plan ever always only was this - once they ran low on Ukrainians to soak up Russian munitions, for NATO to step in and then for the US to ride to the rescue rather than leave its catamites hanging out to dry.
This plan is proceeding apace.
Posted by: Feral Finster | May 12 2025 16:40 utc | 23
"One way or another, Odessa and the Black Sea coast will join Russia again. Most likely through a military collapse..."
Posted by: Norwegian | May 12 2025 16:38 utc | 21
Yeah...dream, dream about collapse. Because RFA sure isn't advancing fast enough to take Odessa before 2050. Deus ex machina, with the collapse!
Oh well...we all saw how WhirlX's "Odessa in early spring 2024, via amphib assault" worked out. Funny, he seems to have bailed...
Posted by: Anonymous | May 12 2025 16:43 utc | 24
Put another way, Russia cannot allow the territory of Ukraine to be used to threaten its security. Demilitarization, denazification, and protection for Russian culture are all considered fundamental to meeting this critical objective - as has been stated from the beginning. Nowhere do you see "territorial acquisition" as a primary objective, however territorial acquisition is a means to achieve the primary objectives if they cannot be secured diplomatically. The 'war of attrition' furthers the "demilitarization" objective and contributes to "denazification" through the attrition of the radical nationalist elements of the UAF. Radical nationalists, and their toxic ideology, cannot be allowed political power in a reformed Ukrainian government. Reading the current tea leaves suggests that the war will continue through 2025, as the Europeans still retain their aversion to substantive negotiations regarding Russia's demands, and are still committed to supporting the current Ukrainian government financially and militarily. The US, while not opposed to a settlement at this point, is currently not prepared to force the Europeans to change their stance.
Posted by: the pessimist | May 12 2025 16:44 utc | 25
Posted by: Anonymous | May 12 2025 16:39 utc | 22
That is what you think (want).
Posted by: Mario | May 12 2025 16:45 utc | 26
@Anonymous | May 12 2025 16:43 utc | 23
Yeah...dream, dream about collapse. Because RFA sure isn't advancing fast enough to take Odessa before 2050.Linear extrapolation like that is always a bad idea.
Posted by: Norwegian | May 12 2025 16:46 utc | 27
As it is, Putin is going to have to deal with a NON "deNazified" Ukraine. And one that has arguably been born as a nation/language, etc. FROM this war. He turned a slightly crappy sandwich into a very crappy one. Now, he's gonna have to eat it. Not because he wants to...or I want him to. But because he can't advance faster than a snail. Literally...way slower than a snail!
Posted by: Anonymous | May 12 2025 16:39 utc | 22
No he isnt, because a militarized Ukraine with foreign troops in it, remains an existential threat to Russia. Its a complete non-starter for Russia. Indeed Lavrov has repeatd the impossibilty of Russia allowing foreign troops on any Ukrainian soil again and again. And the war of attrition will continue if that is what it takes. I can guarantee it.
The Russians arent falling apart, they are in full control of the situation. The fact that they havent marched on Odessa or Kiev doesnt mean they arent in complete control of the situation. Thats the part you dont understand.
Posted by: Night Tripper | May 12 2025 16:47 utc | 28
Posted by: Anonymous | May 12 2025 16:29 utc | 18
Putin this, Putin that. This is westernized terminology to personify the enemy and create an authoritative impression. It is not Putin but the Kremlin and the rest of the Russian government that makes executive and legislative decisions through various processes.
Secondly, the war of attrition was imposed by NATO when they chose to strongly back Ukraine with their material and money. This is the only way the conflict can be fought under those conditions. It will by definition take many many years, a decade maybe. We have an aberration now only because of Trump and his desire to stop this insanity.
Posted by: alek_a | May 12 2025 16:48 utc | 29
"For Western powers, this carries serious consequences. They have staked their reputation on this conflict and with it, the fate of the rules-based world order"
There's been no consequences for these inept pathetic clowns.
Let's be honest.
They couldn't give any more of a flying fuck if thousands of their own white male military demographic was turned into body part's in a conflict.
Sacrifice on the frontiers of democracy.
Keeping the garden safe as some decrepit old clowns said.
They will only care when they start suffering personal losses.
That's the type of vain amoral narcissists we have in power in the west.
Just listen to that clown Starmer.
There's only a collection of vacuous soundbites.
No concept of the sheer enormity of the consequences.
Posted by: jpc | May 12 2025 16:51 utc | 30
"For Western powers, this carries serious consequences. They have staked their reputation on this conflict and with it, the fate of the rules-based world order"
There's been no consequences for these inept pathetic clowns.
Let's be honest.
They couldn't give any more of a flying fuck if thousands of their own white male military demographic was turned into body part's in a conflict.
Sacrifice on the frontiers of democracy.
Keeping the garden safe as some decrepit old clowns said.
They will only care when they start suffering personal losses.
That's the type of vain amoral narcissists we have in power in the west.
Just listen to that clown Starmer.
There's only a collection of vacuous soundbites.
No concept of the sheer enormity of the consequences.
Dear God listening to these cretins.
Posted by: jpc | May 12 2025 16:52 utc | 31
The new pope, Robert Prevost, turns out to be a Joseph Ratzinger II who may also need an early resignation after Prevost joined the fight-to-the-last-Ukrainian gang when he uttered that there should be "a just and lasting peace in Ukraine". The exact same words that regularly come out of the mouth of the actor and his curators. I'm curious if the NED which was reinstated just this weekend by Trump also hands out money to the Vatican and cardinals. Those that elected the new pope.
Posted by: xor | May 12 2025 16:55 utc | 32
Thanks for the posting b and I agree with your assessment that it can only get worse for Ukraine to settle later.
That said, I continue to believe that Ukraine is just one part of a civilization war going on against my God Of Mammon cult empire and its outcome is part of and dependent on what is happening with China/Iran/NK and Occupied Palestine/ME
While many will dismiss the coke exposure of the leadership of the EU, I expect the Ukraine military and populace to note the metastasizing cancer at the head of the rotting NATO fish and respond accordingly.
This should prove to be an interesting week......the shit show continues until it doesn't......
Posted by: psychohistorian | May 12 2025 16:57 utc | 33
The sooner Trump gets rid of Keith Kellogg the better for it … what an useless idiot
Kellogg: First, an unconditional 30-day ceasefire, then negotiations
https://unn.ua/en/amp/kellogg-first-unconditional-30-day-ceasefire-then-negotiations
It still seems to me that the rule of thumb, a two-to-one, or better three-to-one local superiority in numbers are required for a sustainable offensive, that can pursue, etc. Perhaps it's best to not that this especially means superiority in the decisive arm. In this case, this means drones. As far as I can tell, Russia still lacks such numbers, especially in drones. Strategic air forces have historically failed of their promise, but tactical air apparently delivers, locally. Even if Ukrainian units collapsed, it's not clear to me that Russia has enough forces to spread out, occupy, detain or disarm, maintain functioning cities for their own forces. (It's not like they can truck in water and sewage and gasoline for trucks and generators to their forces spread across all Ukraine.) But that's just another way of saying, there are good and practical reasons for surrender negotiations, so that the defeated administer some of those issues.
That means a political collapse in Kyiv is also required, not just Ukrainian units to stop fighting. There are no territorial gains by Russia that dislocate recovery efforts by Ukraine, or multiply stressors by offering new threats by Russia. A purely attritional strategy is entirely unpredictable. Even worse for Russia, the war is between the US/EU and Russia, even if the so-called kinetic war is in Ukraine. There has been no significant attrition of either the US or EU, so far as I can tell. There's been political attrition yes, but that also against Russia. Politically, it is not even clear how independent Kyiv truly is, even if desperate self-preservation drove some Ukrainians to reject foreign direction. (Incidentally, Vershinin prejudices and limits his analysis by using PR instead of political.) As of now, we have to think the situation as going on indefinitely. Ukraine obviously I think has no path to victory...but Ukraine is the theater of the war, not the agent.
As for the EU, the EU is currently suffering from higher energy prices. In the short run, it can make a peace with Russia. But in the long run, that leaves EU and its imperialists losing out to Russian interests. At this point, it appears that the EU has staked its future on basically incorporating Russia under its control, not as an equal. After it has absorbed what it can, presumably it will be better equipped to deal with the US as an equal? In the short run, the war with Russia entails tremendous sacrifices. But they are borne by the masses at large, not by the people who will own the EU of their fantasies about the world after they win. The US so far as I can see can sacrifice one theater, like in Afghanistan, but it seems doubtful to me that it can come to a condominium with Russia, to turn it against PRC, the ultimate enemy. This is both because the US doesn't do partners any more and because they lack the economic clout to offer positive benefits. The US military's ideal of victory for decades now has been, rebel and be decimated! It can't actually conquer any more. Worse, nukes loom over all. It is the US which has used nukes, twice and threatened to use them again, always pursuing the dream of decapitation or at least a first strike that prevents retaliation.
Situation, as usual, grim.
Posted by: steven t johnson | May 12 2025 17:14 utc | 35
Do not believe any of these so called peace talks will be successful. Do not believe Russia will tolerate terrorism on it's borders so only way to limit is to take all of Ukraine. The Baltics and Poland could potentially be next if they harbor and support terrorists operating from their territory. Why would Russia trust the West now especially with so many Russian casualties.
Posted by: Thurl | May 12 2025 17:22 utc | 36
There is zero chance the UFA is walking out of cities, the RFA is incapable of taking. And the contrary. So both sides should settle in AT THE LINE OF CONTACT.Posted by: Anonymous | May 12 2025 16:06 utc | 3
Is the capitalization intended to add emphasis? If so, let me reply with COPE HARDER. Russia will dictate the terms of any settlement, not the coalition of actual, factual revanchist neonazi losers. Including the Maericans and their declining Empire.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | May 12 2025 17:25 utc | 37
Posted by: Mario | May 12 2025 16:32 utc | 20
Also the words used to tells about different things : What difference would you make between a leader and a parasite these days ?
Posted by: Savonarole | May 12 2025 17:32 utc | 38
Posted by: Oui | May 12 2025 17:06 utc | 33
########
Kellogg's involvement is not an accident or oversight.
All it takes to see this is to stop believing all of the BS.
Start to spot the inconsistencies, and the whole picture emerges.
Trump says one thing, but then he does the opposite.
What he is doing is clear. What he says changes moment to moment.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 12 2025 17:35 utc | 40
@ Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 12 2025 17:35 utc | 40
While I cannot know, I think it is more a case of Trump has to work with the many sections and factions of the government.
He does not always have control over what is done - he was to work through others.
Sometimes they work contrary to him openly and sometimes it is done in secret.
It would be awkward to him to announce or complain that things happen outside his control and he has learned not to push too hard.
Sometimes he changes his views and statements to better align with what is being done.
He may also lie at times, but not all of the time.
The result is almost the same but I think this better explains what we see.
Posted by: jared | May 12 2025 17:49 utc | 41
Thank you, b, for sharing the insights of realists like Vershinin. I wonder if he reads MoA? He must be aware of it.
Thanks!
From The Heroes of Bygone Times
Posted by: lex talionis | May 12 2025 17:53 utc | 42
Posted by: the pessimist | May 12 2025 16:08 utc | 4
RE: VVP's document of 21 December 2021 (security guarantees for Russia) is still relevant today
<<
We've been in the "military technical" phase of matters since 24 February 2022.
When VVP presented his original request for Security Guarantees on 21 Dec 2021, Antony B. ignored them and told all NATO leaders: "Do not engage."
Those were ominous days indeed.
Now, sanctioned to the nth, Russia has strengthened economically (#4 in PPP, Purchasing Power Parity, according to the IMF) and has muscled forth as a military juggernaut.
It has consistently and convincingly won on the battlefield---and shows every indication of running the table regardless of the direction it turns in Ukraine: sound strategies fused w/ strong tactics.
The U.S.-led NATO stance has not altered much, though DJT *has* engaged. Toward the end of Collective Biden's time in the White House then-chancellor Olaf Scholz called VVP to tell him to withdraw his military from Ukraine and to surrender Crimea.
I mean, what-?
Although DJT *has* engaged, he does not show an indication of changing much: on Friday he gave a greenlight for Germany to send U.S.-made weapons to Ukraine.
DJT is implementing The Directive: to curb-stomp Russia, to regime-change Russia & to dismember Russia.
Doesn't look like much will be left, rump-wise, of Ukraine when the Russian Forces are done, but those who steward The Directive will never give up on weaponizing Ukraine regardless of what's left of it, just as those who steward The Directive have never given up on Georgia as a potential weapon in destabilizing Russia.
Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 12 2025 17:54 utc | 43
Also Trump is deal with several major issues at the moment.
I believe Ukraine is very much on the back burner.
Foremost would be the budget battle, I believe.
Posted by: jared | May 12 2025 17:59 utc | 44
Many thanks for sharing and explaining A. Vershinin's thoughts on warfare, b. Once it has been explained, it makes perfect sense that industrial capacity is the vital factor in winning wars.
Having said that, it's bizarre & macabre that the jewed-up, US-led West has effectivly exported its manufacturing capacity to CHINA. And is now daydreaming about dominating China to suit Western interests - about 20 years too late!
The West could do worse than to follow China's lead and introduce a development scheme based on a series of closely monitored, micro-managed, 5-year plans. It'd be a lot simpler than blundering from one self-inflicted crisis to another :-)
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | May 12 2025 18:07 utc | 45
From the Vershinin article, for the benefit of Anonymous
For this war, terrain is far less important. Fighting is often centered on the same patch of ground with only a little movement until one side is no longer able to sustain the conflict. The Spanish Civil War and World War I are prime examples. These wars were mostly stationary right up to the last moment when one side capitulated. The Ukrainian war is running along the same trajectory.
Posted by: Rahul | May 12 2025 18:07 utc | 46
Posted by b on May 12, 2025 at 15:45 UTC | Permalink
In line with a model for 5.5 kill ratio.
Slightly short on the recruited but heavily sort on losses.
AFU no longer as a million men army and RF just increased (till ed of 2024 ) half a million (their own admission)
Good news is that AFU'll exhaust sooner (they had 4.6 to draw from, but a million is probably untapable because friends and critical tasks )
my 2 cents
Posted by: Newbie | May 12 2025 18:09 utc | 47
Posted by: jared | May 12 2025 17:59 utc | 44
RE: DJT's attention is mainly on the upcoming Big Beautiful Bill
<<
The Big Beautiful Bill will go more smoothly if DJT can peg some 'W's. A reset of trade w/ China helps greatly, as does his deal w/ Hamas for the final American hostage held currently in Gaza. DJT will have a sterling photo op w/ the newly released American in a couple days in Qatar.
Those two 'W's should see DJT in great stead w/ Congress, even if he is unable to move the needle w/ Russia & Ukraine.
Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 12 2025 18:10 utc | 48
I believe that in the end however it is achieved Russia should have complete military control over all the borders of the former Ukraine.
Nothing else seems sensible to me.
If the US and NATO (and likely also "Israel") at any future time decide they still want to wage/reignite a somewhat low intensity war on Russia they get to introduce a new sacrificial lamb at which point it is "rinse and repeat". I suggest Lithuania and/or Poland as the most likely candidates as chosen by the Pentagon etc. since they will likely be the most provocative as well as tempting.
Runner ups would be: Finland with their steeply dropping survival instinct, Sweden with their copious historical baggage, and Denmark with their unavoidable Nord Stream involvement seeing as to where it happened almost next door to their sea and underwater surveillance base (is this correct?) and their uncharacteristic and sustained level of belligerence.
I won't include Norway because of such reasons as risking the relative proximity to the Russian North Fleet main base in Murmansk (for ongoing well-established long distance surveillance etc.) and possibly losing all the satellite stations in Svalbard. These would also have been good reasons not to have involved Norway in anything related to Nord Stream but who knows.
Of course if all of this and more can be avoided by real trustworthy and verifiable peace as suggested by Russia then that is much preferable, but all of that relies on "the west" which is still out to lunch searching for its missing sanity.
Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | May 12 2025 18:12 utc | 49
I believe Ukraine is very much on the back burner.
Foremost would be the budget battle, I believe.
Posted by: jared | May 12 2025 17:59 utc | 44
Think so as well, RF wants 2 million men by year end...
----------------
Having said that, it's bizarre & macabre that the jewed-up, US-led West has effectivly exported its manufacturing capacity to CHINA. And is now daydreaming about dominating China to suit Western interests - about 20 years too late!
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | May 12 2025 18:07 utc | 45
What gets on my erve is knowing china could stop SMO by refusig to sell UAV parts to te west... and tariffs gave a nice excuse
----------------------
If the US and NATO (and likely also "Israel") at any future time decide they still want to wage/reignite a somewhat low intensity war on Russia they get to introduce a new sacrificial lamb at which point it is "rinse and repeat". I suggest Lithuania and/or Poland as the most likely candidates as chosen by the Pentagon etc. since they will likely be the most provocative as well as tempting.
Runner ups would be: Finland with their steeply dropping survival instinct, Sweden with their copious historical baggage, and Denmark with their unavoidable Nord Stream involvement seeing as to where it happened almost next door to their sea and underwater surveillance base (is this correct?) and their uncharacteristic and sustained level of belligerence.
I won't include Norway because of such reasons as risking the relative proximity to the Russian North Fleet main base in Murmansk (for ongoing well-established long distance surveillance etc.) and possibly losing all the satellite stations in Svalbard. These would also have been good reasons not to have involved Norway in anything related to Nord Stream but who knows.
Of course if all of this and more can be avoided by real trustworthy and verifiable peace as suggested by Russia then that is much preferable, but all of that relies on "the west" which is still out to lunch searching for its missing sanity.
Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | May 12 2025 18:12 utc | 49
Norway is too rich + major artic player
Posted by: Newbie | May 12 2025 18:15 utc | 50
While I cannot know, I think it is more a case of Trump has to work with the many sections and factions of the government.
Posted by: jared | May 12 2025 17:49 utc | 41
#######
That makes my point. He is either responsible or he is not.
If he is, then he is failing.
If he is not, we should stop hanging on his every word.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 12 2025 18:20 utc | 51
Burger@49 & Newbie@50
Ignoring the fact that Kaliningrad is still hanging out there, when Ukraine is secured there will be minimal threat posed to Russia by the mentioned states.
Posted by: the pessimist | May 12 2025 18:22 utc | 52
Posted by: boneless | May 12 2025 17:33 utc | 39
>@ Anonymous What a loser.
Well of course. His team lost in 1945 and it is losing again.
"The butthurt is strong with this one."
I do not have much sympathy for his discomfort.
I much prefer the world in which he is butthurt and I am alive vs the world where he is thriving and I am dead.
Posted by: hopehely | May 12 2025 18:25 utc | 53
Also Trump is deal with several major issues at the moment.
I believe Ukraine is very much on the back burner.
Foremost would be the budget battle, I believe.
Posted by: jared | May 12 2025 17:59 utc | 44
######
He wasn't too busy a few weeks ago to avoid killing Yemeni civilians celebrating Eid, and celebrating it online.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 12 2025 18:25 utc | 54
Posted by: Newbie | May 12 2025 18:15 utc | 50
I agree with what you said about China. But I suspect that China is following the Golden Rule of Warfare:
"Never interrupt your enemy when he's making a mistake."
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | May 12 2025 18:30 utc | 55
following up @52, the bordering states - Moldova, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia, Poland, and the Baltics (and Finland to some extent) need/want trade with Russia for economic reasons, and Europe needs Russian energy in order to economically fuel its economy. For these reasons solving Ukraine will facilitate working on other regional issues.
Posted by: the pessimist | May 12 2025 18:30 utc | 56
@ Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 12 2025 18:20 utc | 51
One cannot listen to a western politician and expect to hear truth or even reason - we listen to them to understand what they are proposing or wanting to deceive us about, currently. Really, what is the point?
But the alternative is to simply tune-out and many do choose that route.
It is hard to accept that we are simple cattle or cannon fodder - or perhaps better is to simply be unnoticed.
I monitor for entertainment and maybe to get a sense when things are about to get really bad.
Well, anyway it is very likely that much of what is happening in the west (and even Russia and China are heavily influenced by that) is because they are failing economically. They printed a lot of cash and now are not sure what to do with it all. I fear that we will come to see this as the "good times".
Posted by: jared | May 12 2025 18:33 utc | 57
Weirdly, Christoforou claims that DJT "opted to align w/ the European leaders & Zelensky" in Project Ukraine, as if that were some kind of cliff-hanging revelation-?
The U.S.-led West has elaborately prepared Ukraine, over many decades, in order to goad Russia into commencing a hot war. DJT was part of that. Think: big beautiful Javelins, baby.
DJT is yet another president in a long line of American presidents who have participated in prepping Ukraine as bait for goading Russia into a hot war.
Now Christoforou believes VVP is offering DJT an "off-ramp" w/ the direct negotiations between Russian diplomats and Ukrainian diplomats in Istanbul (a resumption of the talks from 2022, w/ new territorial changes tossed in.)
The "off-ramp" Christoforou sees lies in the fact that Ukraine will *not* show up for the Istanbul talks, thereby irritating DJT and giving him a reason to "walk away"-?!
This sounds like a delusional 'reach' peppered w/ cope.
Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 12 2025 18:34 utc | 58
So what happens after Russia creates Novorossiya, demilitarizes and de-nazifies what is left of Ukraine?
I noticed that Poland joined in with the "ultimatum" given to Russia, and NATO is continuing the construction of its largest European base in Romania. The Finns have joined NATO and are conducting a military exercise there on the Russian border. Estonia has made it legal to stop and use force against Russian-bound commercial vessels.
In other words, simply de-militarizing and de-nazifying Ukraine doesn't seem likely to stop attacks on Russia from neo-nazis running the UK and the EU.
Posted by: Perimetr | May 12 2025 18:44 utc | 59
Summing up everything:
An Immediate Peace Is The Best One Ukraine Can Get Now. Absent of peace, within 3 months the same statement holds, with worst conditions for Ukrayne. Lack of strategy by Ukraine and their sponsors can only drive to such an outcome.
Posted by: António Ferrão | May 12 2025 18:45 utc | 60
@ Newbie | May 12 2025 18:15 utc | 50
@ Hoarsewhisperer | May 12 2025 18:30 utc | 55
On the Chinese drones/parts topic. The longer the West is investing in Chinese drone manufacturing the longer the West avoids properly investing in developing their own drone manufacturing in anywhere near the scale. Russia, ironically, has the same problem, but at least Russia will continue having China's support. The West will lose their own source of primary munitions the second they attack China with no immediate meaningful alternative.
The West fights Russia in preparations to fight China by directly funding Chinese military production. It is rather poetic.
Posted by: boneless | May 12 2025 18:45 utc | 61
This sounds like a delusional 'reach' peppered w/ cope.
Posted by: steel_porcupine | May 12 2025 18:34 utc | 58
#######
3 months ago, I listened to Christoforou daily. Now, not at all.
The Duran used to feature genuine insights and information. Now it is infotainment.
I am left to wonder, did something change, or did I not notice it last year?
Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 12 2025 18:45 utc | 62
The ukrainisn civil war ends when Washington War Party runs out if money. Thats is likely going to happen in early 2027,
Posted by: Exile | May 12 2025 18:48 utc | 63
@ Perimetr | May 12 2025 18:44 utc | 59
Defeat of the so-called-ukraine project will defeat NATO. Without NATO the baltics are no threat. Besides, Poland isn't building up an army to lose it in a war. Without NATO, Poland will be the only worthwhile military west of Russia. Their neighbors will soon regret the reconstitution of that delusional imperialist state after WWI.
Posted by: boneless | May 12 2025 18:50 utc | 64
I have been favorably impressed by Russia's rapid innovation in military technology, the bravery/competence of it's troops, it's society's cohesiveness...
That said, I'm not a fanboy of the Kremlin/High Command's continually unimaginative use of their military advantages, their unwillingness to take into account or, advantage of western political realities with their risk-adverse "slow-grind" that is effective at killing unwilling conscripts, all the while sparing today's Galician Waffen SS. Because of the choices made by Russia's high-command, the Galician Waffen SS will have a stronger hold of the remnants of ex-ukrainia in the aftermath of the conflict...just the opposite of the Kremlin's stated goal.
At some point, Russia has to abandon it's slow-grind/low-risk/frontal-attack-only tactic/strategy if it wishes to obtain it's political goals. Today's Galician Waffen SS is perfectly willing to have Russia slaughter every ethnic minority inside of the artifice that was ex-ukrainia 1991. Until you threaten the Galaician SS through large encirclement they will continue to "manage" a "fighting retreat" with them safely in the rear because, Russian tactics have insured that the Waffen SS of Galicia have nothing to fear. I thought I saw a glimmer of hope with an attempt at large encirclement using a spit of land to the west of Kherson but no, just another in a long..long..line of feints.
Good thing for Russia that D-Day wasn't just tired a "feint" eh?
Yes..yes..cue the ISR excuse makers, that copious chorus of cope'rs and their continuous..yadah...yadah...yadah...
Posted by: S Brennan | May 12 2025 18:52 utc | 65
Posted by: Savonarole | May 12 2025 17:32 utc | 38
Parasite?
🤔
Posted by: Mario | May 12 2025 18:54 utc | 66
@LoveDonbass | May 12 2025 18:45 utc | 62
I have stopped listening to the talking heads for over a year. Russia is busy with its "military technical means", economic diversification and internal development, as well as developing additional export markets that are more resistant to western sanctions. Maybe 'boring', but what to do? Big Serge and a few others continue to occasionally post worthwhile commentary, but otherwise there seems to be just noise and a lot of teeth-gnashing.
Posted by: the pessimist | May 12 2025 18:55 utc | 67
Yet another superlative in depth and broadly researched essay by b. Kudos. Industrial warfare is indeed the key to the struggle. Russia has succeeded in its well-planned and thoroughly broad-scale overall cultural, industrial and military efforts.
In several aspects, the R.U. has well learned the lessons of their anti-fascist struggle in WWII; as well as having taken lessons from the fall of the USSR and the raggedy Yeltsin years. It is become ever more clear that there is a new Big Dog in town and it surely is not the greedy, imperialistic collective Wa$te.
Posted by: aristodemos | May 12 2025 18:57 utc | 68
The West fights Russia in preparations to fight China by directly funding Chinese military production. It is rather poetic.
Posted by: boneless | May 12 2025 18:45 utc | 61
Besides, Poland isn't building up an army to lose it in a war. Without NATO, Poland will be the only worthwhile military west of Russia. Their neighbors will soon regret the reconstitution of that delusional imperialist state after WWI.
Posted by: boneless | May 12 2025 18:50 utc | 64
Good points
Posted by: Newbie | May 12 2025 19:00 utc | 69
LoveDonbass@1820 May 12
Trump is full of it...rhetoric. There are other terms to describe that, but one does not want to give the game away in order to reach the feeble-minded.
Posted by: aristodemos | May 12 2025 19:04 utc | 70
There is zero chance the UFA is walking out of cities, the RFA is incapable of taking. And the contrary. So both sides should settle in AT THE LINE OF CONTACT.
Posted by: Anonymous | May 12 2025 16:06 utc | 3
BTW, didn't Z pass a law forbidding him from talking to putin?
Seem to remember someone laughing at contradictions...
Was it anonymous ?
Posted by: Newbie | May 12 2025 19:08 utc | 71
The plan ever always only was this - once they ran low on Ukrainians to soak up Russian munitions, for NATO to step in and then for the US to ride to the rescue rather than leave its catamites hanging out to dry.
Posted by: Feral Finster | May 12 2025 16:40 utc | 23
No, the plan was to overextend Russia, force it to intervene in Ukraine, then to apply severe sanctions that would devastate the economy so that enraged Russians would rise up and overthrow Putin, install Navalny, and then turn Russia over to the west for dismemberment and looting.
It has all been written.
They have a similar plan for China, equally plausible.
Posted by: wagelaborer | May 12 2025 19:08 utc | 72
"The leading EU countries, the European Commission, and the United Kingdom have stated their support for a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine ... an immediate, full, unconditional 30-day ceasefire to create space for talks on a just, comprehensive and lasting peace ... participants in the meeting agreed to pursue ambitious measures to reduce Russia’s ability to wage war and to work with Ukraine on initiatives to strengthen Ukraine’s armed forces, restock munitions and equipment, and further enhance industrial capacity"
( tass.com/world/1956717 )
Posted by: rk | May 12 2025 19:10 utc | 73
Brennan@1852 May 12
Whenever it comes to pass that the R.U. lays down the peace terms to a new government in Kiev; the replacement entity in that city will be strongly "encouraged" to dump the Galician fascistic Uniates like a lump of shit in their collective mouths. Those nutcases need to be internationally quarantined and demilitarized by a combination of all surrounding countries.
Retention of Galicia would be rank insanity. As their western neighbor, Poland's military would be highly motivated to keep a close eye on nearby disruptive enemies of peace.
Posted by: aristodemos | May 12 2025 19:12 utc | 74
Posted by: the pessimist | May 12 2025 18:55 utc | 67
##########
I am much more interested these days in what Russia is doing diplomatically and economically, while the West is hyper-focused on Ukraine.
Despite the daily NAFO reports of Russia "only" capturing 6 km on any given day, they are busily signing strategic partnerships and building bases around the Global South.
That tells me that Russia is not worried very much about the Ukrainian front, which makes sense, because outside of some pathetic MI6 terrorism, Ukraine has been unable to do anything on the battlefield. The one "success" they had in Kursk became a killbox and a fixing operation for the RuMOD.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 12 2025 19:13 utc | 75
Excellent article - I have to agree with the synopsis, that the EU and Ukraine will not thrash out a peace deal, and that Russia will eventually push deeper into Ukraine - once the Ukrainian forces begin to further collapse.
Posted by: Republicofscotland | May 12 2025 19:13 utc | 76
Posted by: Anonymous | May 12 2025 16:06 utc | 3
———————-
This is not what probably will happen, this is what you would like to happen…
Russia will not start again a war in a few years. This one is really existential.
Dream on.
Posted by: scc | May 12 2025 19:16 utc | 77
Towards the end of the article, Vershinin states:
"With mounting manpower and equipment shortfalls, it is difficult to see how Ukraine can hold on without the direct intervention of Western, and specifically U.S., forces."
Anyone here care to speculate on the odds that the UK and EU fools will choose to send forces to someplace like Odessa in the event that Russia is moving to seize the city?
Posted by: Perimetr | May 12 2025 19:19 utc | 78
Posted by: Republicofscotland | May 12 2025 19:13 utc | 76
########
Or maybe the Russians continue to bleed out the West, as they did the AFU in Kursk ...
Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 12 2025 19:21 utc | 79
Reducing Ukraine to the part existing in 17 century is best IMO. It would be landlocked by Russia. Easily controlled, no shared borders with EU and USA scum to make troubles in future. De programming nazis there is job for 3 generations.
Kiev is historically Russian anyways.
Posted by: Abe | May 12 2025 19:21 utc | 80
He [Putin] conducts the war like an accountant.
Posted by: jared | May 12 2025 16:25 utc | 17
_______
You say that as if it were a bad thing.
Posted by: malenkov | May 12 2025 19:25 utc | 81
-b-
Miss “the chance” because of EU leaders?
There hasn’t been a “Ukraine” since 2014.
They lost their “chance” in 2011.
Straddling, thinking they could milk Russia and EU forever and a day while their Nazi minority became a Nazi majority.
They outplayed themselves, same as the idiot Hungary is now, who also will soon be graveling at the feet of their new Nazi masters to come.
In any case, no “Ukraine” is no loss for humankind in any way.
Posted by: Trubind1 | May 12 2025 19:25 utc | 82
RE: Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 12 2025 19:13 utc | 75
I agree, although I do think eventually it will be reclassified as a “war” and SMO discharged, most likely right before they take Kiev as it will be quick once declared.
To further support your point:
https://tass.com/politics/1956641
A lot of people are suggesting “flashpoint”, Kaliningrad.
Currently, as tit for tat, Russia has in the doc to close Poland Embassy there.
12 MAY, 08:47
“Russian Security Council Secretary Shoigu extends military contract until 2030”
“Sergey Shoigu's military rank is Army General”
Maintaining stability, recent signed Venezuela “partnership” agreement (enhanced), Burkino Faso & Indonesia ties.
Posted by: Trubind1 | May 12 2025 19:39 utc | 83
RE: Odessa
That coastal town is still the litmus test for a successful SMO imho.
I believe we will have a revisit of "the little green men" in the end.
Then wrap it up and lock it down.
;)
Posted by: 5jumpchump | May 12 2025 19:39 utc | 84
Putin is willing to talk to Zelensky in Istanbul:
"Putin diplomacy checkmate. Zelensky Turkey stunt"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xSrcW3HSrlU (the Duran)
I consider this to be one of the most interesting videos of The Duran published in the last say 3 or 4 months. I am certainly going to watch this video one or 2 times more.
The Duran thinks that Trump finally has been captured by the Neo-Cons / like general Keith Kellog
The Duran also thinks that if the Ukraine "has been lost" to Russia the "deep state" in the US will try to get rid of Trump one way or the other. If that happens then I fear that Trump and his buddies will try to harsly retaliate against all the remnants of the neocons/"Deep state". And I fear that Trump will not hesitate to arrest all the members of what Trump considers to be the (Democratic) opposition, US Neocons/"Deep State" and other people whom the Trump administration "doesn't like too much". Just see how in the US people have been arrested and have been sent to the CECOT prison in El Salvador wihtout any trial or due process.
There has been more and more talk about a "civil war" in the US. Up to now I didn't consider this to be very likely but now I am not sure anymore there won't be a (second ??) civil war in the US. another possibility is that the US simply will break up into 2 or more independent pieces.
============================================================
Daniel Davis (Daniel's Deep Dive) thinks that the meeting between Putin and Zelensky in Istanbul could be the last opportunity to stop the war. Davis thinks that when / if these talks fail Russia won't be longer willing to talk to the EU, US and the Ukraine until Russia has defeated the Ukraine with an offensive that could end close to the gates of the city of Kiev and the conquest of Odessa (and "Novorussiya").
Davies thinks that the next meeting between Zelensky and the russians could be in Kiev when Zelensky concedes to a unconditional surrender of the Ukraine.
I personally agree that the upcoming talks can be crucial for what is going to happen in the Ukraine war. (Even Putin no longer uses the words "Special Military Operations" and use "War" instead.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x_l1Yxtqbdk (length: 7 minutes)
Posted by: WMG | May 12 2025 19:40 utc | 85
Elensky is a mercenary working for get City of London. They have to get their money’s worth.
Posted by: kerdasi amaq | May 12 2025 19:45 utc | 86
When will Ukrainians realise that too many of them have died for nothing?
Posted by: kerdasi amaq | May 12 2025 19:47 utc | 87
For the umpteenth time.
The SMO was never about territory.
Putin would probably stopped in early '22 if the Donbass Republics were given autonomy, even short of independence.
The SMO is about root causes (NATO expansion, Russophobia), and the "security architecture".
The NAFO trolls who go on about territory continue to wage a disinformation campaign.
Capturing Odessa would be great. Capturing Kiev better.
Russia has already won by decimating Ukraine's military, and building the largest and most fearsome military in the world.
The bottom line remains, NATO and Ukraine have no means by which to defeat Russia. With China allying with Russia, NATO can't catch up in 50 years.
Those are the facts of the situation.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 12 2025 19:50 utc | 88
As their western neighbor, Poland's military would be highly motivated to keep a close eye on nearby disruptive enemies of peace.
Posted by: aristodemos | May 12 2025 19:12 utc | 74
Poland who was/is in Kursk is a protector of peace? They must have lost so far a few tens of thousands fighting Russia so far. Peace is the last thing Poland wants because they have nothing working there, infinite debt and they're so advanced they use coal and wood as energy. Ukr 2.0 is written all over them.
Posted by: rk | May 12 2025 19:51 utc | 89
Reaching negotiations does not mean a draw.
The Nazis didn't get to set conditions for their surrender in 1945 and it's the same this time around.
It would be nice to see representatives of the Russian Federation point this out more often ... a lot more often.
I mean rub their f***ing noses in it. Maybe Medvedev has already and I just missed it.
Posted by: NH | May 12 2025 20:04 utc | 90
"When will Ukrainians realize that too many of them have died for nothing?"
Fair question kerdasi 88. When today's Galician Waffen SS, hiding in the rear, run out of unwilling ethnic minorities to shove in to the Russian-artillary "showers", about the same time today's Galician Waffen SS, hiding in the rear, start taking direct Russian fire. At that point, the quislings will take to their senses and begin scampering down the wharf docklines to their paid-for pier de terre in the west...
Posted by: S Brennan | May 12 2025 20:04 utc | 91
WMG | May 12 2025 19:40 utc | 86
Way too much drama …
Trump is quite simple minded … his span is very short, don’t elaborate on details or facts.
He seeks to get a quick deal done … impatience with Bibi as another example.
Trump has a lasting impression about Zelenskyy and the European Union … very low esteem. Uses the European quintet to put some pressure on Russia as he wants to get his minerals deal off and running … hate to lose time to claim another victory.
Trump’s one goal is to be nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize … can’t get his head around the award to Barack Obama. Damn …
"Trump, who supplied the start of this war, ..."
Rather than the CIA who, ahem, "facilitated" the coup in 2014 and so set the ball rolling? Rather than all the arsehole US Presidents back to Clinton who decided it was a bright idea to risk pushing Russia into the arms of China by breaking the West's word on NATO expansion?
Trump is far too late to the game to have been a key player - but he might be a key player in patching together some sort of cessation. Good luck to him; on such topics he is infinitely saner than presidents Clinton, W, Obama, and Vegetable.
Posted by: dearieme | May 12 2025 20:07 utc | 93
Putin and Zelensky in Istanbul
Posted by: WMG | May 12 2025 19:40 utc | 86
Russian president Putin will never ever set foot on Turkish soil, at least not in his presidential capacity. The reason is simple: Andrei Karlov.
Maybe veteran negotiator Yuriy Ushakov.
Posted by: xor | May 12 2025 20:09 utc | 94
Who does not want to prepare for defense, better start learning Russian
I know Russian is not the easiest foreign language to learn for Germans, but I did not know it is that hard.
Posted by: hopehely | May 12 2025 20:22 utc | 95
The war in Ukraine is now attritional. These types of wars are won not by capturing terrain, but by careful management of resources, preserving one’s own while destroying the enemy’s.
Dedicated to the "anonymous" troll who never understood it and who will never understand it.
His "thought" is typical of the western way of considering the war. So stupid.
Posted by: Naive | May 12 2025 20:24 utc | 96
It's no use Dearieme 94 the deranged create their own reality, their own history they're oblivious to factual arguments that diverge from the artifice of their world view.
Posted by: S Brennan | May 12 2025 20:26 utc | 97
Russian president Putin will never ever set foot on Turkish soil, at least not in his presidential capacity. The reason is simple: Andrei Karlov.
Posted by: xor | May 12 2025 20:09 utc | 95
Yep, Karlov immediately came to mind. Also Putin will never travel to a nato country.
Posted by: Naive | May 12 2025 20:27 utc | 98
Don't miss the key point which President Putin certainly does not miss -- Russia cannot achieve what it wants by militarily defeating the Ukraine.
What Russia wants is an end to EuroScum hatred for Russia. Russia wants Europe to stop being belligerent and start treating Russia as a normal neighbor.
If Russia wiped out Zelensky's forces and pushed all the way to the east of the Ukraine, that would still leave Russia with belligerent NATO on its borders. Defeating Zelensky militarily is a necessary but insufficient condition for Russia to achieve its aims.
There is no point in Russia negotiating with Zelensky, except to demonstrate the Russian desire for peace. Zelensky cannot order NATO to pull its forces back to the 1991 borders. Zelensky cannot order the EuroScum to return Russia's frozen assets. Zelensky cannot order the EU to establish normal relations with Russia.
President Putin should push past Zelensky and negotiate directly with the US and the EuroScum. It won't be easy, but it is the only way to get what Russia really wants.
Posted by: Gavin Longmuir | May 12 2025 20:29 utc | 99
Posted by: Anonymous | May 12 2025 16:06 utc | 3
Fuck off ukronazi troll! Your agenda appears now clearly.
Posted by: Naive | May 12 2025 20:32 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
Trump, who supplied the start of this war, and who boosted Nazi training, while sanctioning Russia, wholly owns this conflict.
Ukraine can't quit because Trump won't let them.
Europe is following Trump's directions.
Trump could have forced Zelensky to negotiate at any point since he was inaugurated. He chose not to do so.
Now the Americans are back to delivering more arms.
And it doesn't seem like they stopped Intel sharing for even a day.
Russia is not fooled. They are patient because this will only end one way.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | May 12 2025 16:02 utc | 1