There are a number of discussions about a potentially imminent U.S. war on Iran. Yves Smith at Naked Capitalism concludes that a war is more likely than not. Crooke, Mercouris and Diesen are ambivalent (vid) but also seem to expect a conflict.
President Trump (or, more correct, Netanyahoo behind him) has made demands towards Iran that are designed to be rejected:
- End all nuclear programs
- Destroy medium range missiles which can reach Israel
- Stop support for all 'resistance' movements in the Middle East
Iran will of course reject those demands.
It is willing to put its nuclear program back into the parameters of the JCPOA nuclear agreement, which Trump previously discarded, IF sanctions against it are lifted. It is also willing to do lucrative business with the U.S. But that is about it.
The U.S. is trying to impress Iran with military arrangements. Several B-2 bombers were sent to Diego-Garcia, two airforce carriers are in the Middle East, Israel has been supplied with more THAAD and Patriot air defense missiles.
I find that to be a mere show of force mostly for the audience in the U.S. It is not enough for a sufficiently strong attack that aims to defeat Iran. Iran's abilities to retaliate require a much larger force for the opening campaign and many more forces to handle all the calamities which would inevitably follow.
Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff was in Oman today for talks with Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi. The first reactions are positive but there are no words (yet) of any results:
"Talks were held in a constructive atmosphere, based on mutual respect," and the delegations exchanged the views of their respective governments about "Iran's nuclear program and sanctions relief with the mediation of Oman FM," says the MFA statement.
The talks will continue next week.
It is hard to assess what Trump might do. If he does not give a f*** he will attack Iran no matter what. If he still cares for his legacy he will avoid a war that would let energy prices explode and pull the U.S. into another large war without end which it can not possibly win.
My current line of (wishful?) thinking is similar to Larry Johnson's:
My hope is that Trump is smarting from the beating he has taken over the tariff fiasco and that he is eager to score a diplomatic win. If my assumption is correct, Trump will embrace JCPOA 2 as his creation and proclaim himself as the one who stopped Iran from building a nuke.
Then again, as Alastair Crooke reminds us, the current volatile international situation may make random events more relevant than politicies in creating the outcome. Simple moves, from potentially many sides, (an Israeli attack on Iran?) could easily have snowball effects.