News & views related to the war in Ukraine …
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April 17, 2025
Ukraine Open Thread 2025-081
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Posted by: Kosta | Apr 18 2025 1:01 utc | 66
This forum is run by and infested with unstable delusional anti-social mental cases and rank fools
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A fool is anyone who believes anything that an American “agrees” to regarding “peace” negotiations. Just ask the Indians……Osceola went to “peace” negotiations initiated by General Andrew Jackson. Well, that was just a trap, Osceola was detained and sent to SC.
A fool is someone who does not study REAL history and how America has always lied during “peace” negotiations.
Here is a more recent example:
Qasem Soleimani
Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org › wiki › Qasem_Soleimani
an Iranian military officer who served in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). From 1998 until his assassination by the United States in 2020,
Posted by: CeaClearly | Apr 18 2025 10:30 utc | 101
Ukraine and World Affairs: Weekly Update: May be useful to some: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-and-world-affairs-weekly-84b
Posted by: The Busker | Apr 18 2025 11:24 utc | 102
Waffen SS units were foreign volunteer units
Posted by: Badjoke | Apr 18 2025 9:11 utc | 95
________
Nobel Prize winner Günter Grass was Waffen-SS. Last time I checked, he was German. So was his entire Panzer division.
Posted by: malenkov | Apr 18 2025 11:27 utc | 103
(via dd geopolitics) Ukrainian News Outlet “Strana” on Rubio’s statements:
Marco Rubio’s statement that if there is no progress in the next few days regarding ceasefire negotiations in Ukraine, the U.S. will exit the peace process and shift focus to other global issues, appears more as a threat to Ukraine than to Russia.
Rubio mentioned that the U.S. has supported Ukraine for three years, but now “we’ve reached a point where we need to focus on other things; the U.S. has many other priorities worldwide.” This could be interpreted as a signal that, without progress in negotiations, the U.S. may no longer provide aid to Ukraine.
However, he did not make similar threats towards Russia (“if we don’t get a response from the Kremlin in the next few days, we will impose harsh sanctions”).
If the U.S. steps back from involvement without further action, Moscow will essentially remain unaffected, losing nothing. In contrast, Kyiv stands to lose a great deal, particularly in terms of weapon supplies and intelligence support from the U.S.
Thus, Rubio’s statement seems to be directed primarily at Ukrainian authorities. The intention behind this pressure may be to push President Zelensky into accepting the terms outlined by the U.S. delegation during their meetings in Paris.
Posted by: Justpassinby | Apr 18 2025 11:51 utc | 104
Justpassingby @ 104
Thanks for that writen clarification, the statement was made in Paris. So it”s offical.
It comes on the back of Vance’s Munich statment and a month of failed ceace fire talks, showing clear bad faith from zelensky and genuine good faith from Vladimir Putin.
Say what we like about Trump. He dosent suffer fools.
Posted by: Mark2 | Apr 18 2025 12:02 utc | 105
Thus, Rubio’s statement seems to be directed primarily at Ukrainian authorities. The intention behind this pressure may be to push President Zelensky into accepting the terms outlined by the U.S. delegation during their meetings in Paris.
Posted by: Justpassinby | Apr 18 2025 11:51 utc | 104
Whoever has written this will have no idea what terms were outlined in Paris. If indeed any terms were outlined at all.
The progression of the minerals deal suggests very little in the way of this was discussed, as its ratification would surely open another fault line which needs to be addressed with Russia (presuambly by Witkoff to Putin), as the whole idea of Ukrainian neutrality goes completely out of the window under such circumstances.
Posted by: Night Tripper | Apr 18 2025 12:03 utc | 106
Posted by: malenkov | Apr 18 2025 11:27 utc | 103
As well as Guenther Grass, Joseph Ratzinger was most prolly a waffen SS since he was detained in the same US POW camp dedicated to SS prisoners – according to Grass memories.
And was too old to still be a HitlerJugend member – over 18.
As for the 14th SS Galichina it never mowed Canadians on Juno Beach, which was defended by regular Werhmacht landsers (troopers). The Canucks, mainly Quebeckers and Nova Scotia Highlanders, had to meet the 17,000 strong 12th Panzer SS HitlerJugend in fierce fighting for the next two months before taking Caen from them.
The Ukrainians that mowed allies were the – about – 2000 hilfwilligers from the 352nd infanterie division that was in charge of defending Vierville-sur-mer shore, also called Omaha beach. They succeded in kiling 6,000 US troopers under US Gen Omar Bradley, in a few hours, a massacre that almost prompted the cancellation of this US landing in Normandy and possibly jeopardizing the whole operation Overlord.
Posted by: Greg Galloway | Apr 18 2025 12:06 utc | 107
Newb:
It’s fine to look at other maps. I honestly haven’t figure out how to use them (and no, James, I don’t have a duty to do so…others can do their own work, rather than refining mine). I have found the other maps seem to lack mileage (kmsqage) counters. And lack “new gain” cross hatching. And lack daily updates. But I would love (seriously, LOVE) it if someone were to do the (small) level of work I do, daily. I mean it…would like to hear someone give daily reports on Dima’s map. (Not DPA please, his stuff is a mess, with literal double counting of RFA advances–he has “two maps” on his map.)
The bottom line is, if DS is conservative, for RFA, it’s still not going to make a difference when looking at change over time. Because he’d be conservative from start to end and the gain would be similar to looking at optimistic from start to end. I’m sure that there’s some cope. But I’ve also seen a hella lot of “prediction” rather than reporting from the “first, first” crowd of mappers like Ayden, Divgen, even Sirius (DPA tracked Divgen and Sirius when Rybar was down and found repeated times that they were too optomistic and had to go back on RFA advances).
But in any case, if one map were dramatically wrong, over time, about rate of advance, the maps would diverge. If the rate (per day, sustained) is too low from DS, than he would be WAY BEHIND other maps. They would two, three, more towns ahead all over the front. Continued advances, and geolocations, would make it infeasible to maintain a false image. And actually we see almost exactly the same line of contact, several months later. They are stuck at the same places.
As for the finger out of Toretsk, Skruffy reported on a thunder run to Nelipivka (and some pro UKR mappers showed it also). It was since reconquered by UFA. And now, maybe RFA went back again. (See his recent videos.) But again, we are talking about a tiny finger out of of one town. That maybe is held, contested, whatever. In the grand scheme of things (like daily rate of advance over a 1000km+ long line of contact), it’s a trivial difference. Whoever is right!
And given the back and forth, I sort of understand DS waiting. Sure…you can say maybe it should be gray at least. But…really…if the RFA holds it, leverages it, and continues advances, DS will show it eventually. And God knows there has been a buttload of too “first, first” triumph map changes from the Divgen/Ayden mappers, to the extent that even Russian soldiers were laughing at the “prediction” reporting that they were doing. But again, use whatever map you want. Bottom line is that if you look at 30NOV to 17APR, you will see a very slow rate of advance.
P.s. If you look at the most recent History Legends video, you will see him using DS maps to look at changes over last year (!) around Pokrovsk. (And HL is neutral but probably slightly pro Russian, certainly his viewership, commenters are pro Russian, similar to DPA.) It is just a really good map to use in terms of usability, viewing, etc. And over long periods of time (and we are over 3 years into this war!), it is irrelevant which map you use!
Posted by: Anonymous | Apr 18 2025 12:10 utc | 108
Night Tripper @ 106
Aaa ha ! Not so fast…..
The signing of the ukraine mineral agreement between ukraine and America, was obveously a cleaver plan by Trump to prevent europe getting their sticky fingers on Ukraines minerals thus cleaverly removeing one of the three main incentives for europe starting this war.
The timing between the signing (hours) and the statment proves this point.
Posted by: Mark2 | Apr 18 2025 12:12 utc | 109
Posted by: Mark2 | Apr 18 2025 12:12 utc | 109
But the key matter for Russia was the neutrality of the rump state of Ukraine
This minerals deal ends that idea.
Posted by: Night Tripper | Apr 18 2025 12:15 utc | 110
Minerals deal signed, to be ratified on 26th
Huge escalation if true
Posted by: Night Tripper | Apr 18 2025 8:43 utc | 93
Not ratified, it’s not a treaty, only a memorandum of understanding. It has as much weight as the Budapest Memorandum, perhaps less so since it was agreed under duress. The deal is set to be signed next week, the draft agreement locked in this week. But either party can back out of it with ease.
Posted by: James M. | Apr 18 2025 12:18 utc | 111
Posted by: James M. | Apr 18 2025 12:18 utc | 111
Allegedly new terms are much more favouruable to Ukraine than previously – their debts claculated now at only 100 billion, though we have to see the final wording.
I see no reason why either would back out of the deal – at this point while the war is ongoing it costs nothing.
The problem becomes that once a peace deal is finally agreed with the Americans demanding their cut, the Russian ‘red line’ of neutrality has gone out of the window – whch is the real purpose of signing this deal – to do as much as possible to ensure a continuation of a pro-Western regime in the rump state at least.
Posted by: Night Tripper | Apr 18 2025 12:24 utc | 112
103 – Early in the war, they were all-German. Then as the war went on Volksdeutsche (ethnic Germans with varying degrees of credibility attached to the label) were recruited, and then non-Germans considered Aryan like Dutch and Norwegians, and finally Slavs, Balts etc. A combination of increasing desperation as the war went the wrong way, and Himmler’s empire-building, explained the change.
Posted by: Waldorf | Apr 18 2025 12:26 utc | 113
I have to second James M here: if not ratified by the Senate as treaty, US promises are worthless.
I hope this finds you well
Posted by: ockham | Apr 18 2025 12:39 utc | 114
Posted by: Anonymous | Apr 18 2025 12:10 utc | 108
I didn’t disagree on the km2 per se
I did already defend your work as something worth having (in spite of remarks)
Even when posts here and elsewhere mentioned a new drive by RF I said wobbly at best as casualties reduced again
I think you know all that
On the other hand, just like I mentioned tendrils months ago when things started to change pace, I now mentioned what I feel are significant line breaches
And as for sharing maps, it’s for anyone to take a look and judge for themselves (and you’ll get a bigger club if anyone goes to the maps regularly, most of the time, most of the line, yes watching grass grow is a frantic sport in comparison)
And yet, two factors limit any “decades to take X” logic. One that even RF MoD numbers don’t confirm , only a model I have , that is complete AFU emptying without any reserves… soon. The other a more typical thing in war, slowly then suddenly .
It is your option if you consider it cope, mine to consider as I see it .
Keep the km2 going, it’s something , and when you comment understand if anyone answers.
Posted by: Newbie | Apr 18 2025 12:40 utc | 115
and no, James, I don’t have a duty to do so…others can do their own work, rather than refining mine).
Posted by: Anonymous | Apr 18 2025 12:10 utc | 108
So in other words there’s no reason to take your posts seriously. You use a single biased source, either implicitly stating your own bias, or that you’re just too dumb to figure out other maps. You expose yourself as an ISW troll. And, the audacity to call it “your work”, you don’t even do the calculations or draw the map. You just crib off someone else.
Also, you cannot claim the high ground any time another poster uses a single biased source, and say cope, cope, like the parakeet you are. Now I’ll use two biased sources to one-up your singular source:
https://southfront.press/military-situation-in-ukraine-on-april-17-2025-maps-update/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CAsObjpFua8
Look at that, Russia is advancing all over the place. Your single argument and your credibility, whatever little you still had, is now and forever destroyed. From now on every time you post your link to your little map, sorry the DS map, I’ll cut and paste this post as the definitive response.
Posted by: James M. | Apr 18 2025 12:41 utc | 116
From now on every time you post your link to your little map, sorry the DS map, I’ll cut and paste this post as the definitive response.
Posted by: James M. | Apr 18 2025 12:41 utc | 116
As you should , lately I was answering with the daily AFU casualties .
Giving others data and links is the way.
Data is always limited and debatable in ways but is what we have, that and our reasoned (at least for us) opinion that we choose to share.
Posted by: Newbie | Apr 18 2025 12:51 utc | 117
Posted by: Newbie | Apr 18 2025 12:40 utc | 115
You shouldn’t waste your time with him anymore Newbie. He’s a poser or a troll, or probably both. I thought to reason with him as well a long time ago, but he will never change his stripes. Cut and paste someone else’s work, and hand waves any criticism, rinse and repeat. I’m guessing he’s never read Clausewitz and doesn’t understand friction in warfare. Or other concepts.
Russia isn’t using the blitzkrieg true, but the RuAF is hardly losing. Other than some deadenders in Kursk the war is fought entirely on Ukrainian territory. Russian escalations mirrors Ukrainian ones, with more devastating firepower and only slightly more troops in theater. Remember Russia has millions in reserves that they don’t need to use. Saving them for NATO. Russia keeps its economy booming under global sanctions while Ukraine has to beg, borrow and steal literally everything it has in this war. All those elements, among many others, factor into the square Kms game.
That last paragraph is for Anonymous/Julian/vargas/shadowbanned/any other handles the Troll Collective uses, and not directed at Newbie.
Posted by: James M. | Apr 18 2025 13:03 utc | 118
The Outlaw US of A Treasury Secretary Mr. Scott Kenneth Homer Bessent (SKB) said earlier in the context of the mineral deal with Ukraine:
“We are very, very close.” <…>
“It could even be signed as early as this week”
Good luck with that.
5-days have passed without resolution but just another coalition of the willing gathering this time in Paris.
Zelensky has extended mobilization and martial law (for the 15th time) for another 90 days.
Yesterday, it was revealed a one-page memorandum of intent. That’s it, that’s all.
Now there are many documents spanning multiple dozens of pages each but converging into a single Adobe pdf agreement which is not legally binding and that also includes many small prints in it and nasty footnotes.
Among the most challenging topics are the wording related to the US of A contributions to the investment fund [Ukraine’s NATO] and mechanisms for compensating Washington’s aid to Kiev. This is an indirect transaction where the British Lords [main beneficiaries] sell, fetch proceeds, return (’some’) to Ukraine who then transfer them to the fund and give (’some’) to Blackrock and Corporate US. This is common practice in Banking.
In other words, the Outlaw US of A is trapped, ought to have no other choice but must rely unconditionally on the British Empire, the Lords and the Barons from the City of London.
The memorandum between Ukraine and the US of A explicitly states the goal of finalizing the mineral agreement by April 26-2025, but the final outcome remains uncertain.
Without elections in Ukraine in the Autum this agreement in its current form is null and void.
VOZ shall continue dragging this process for as long as it takes.
And without security guarantees this agreement shall and could never happen.
In the mean while the SMO continues until all conditions are met.
Posted by: pepe | Apr 18 2025 13:30 utc | 119
To : Anonymous | Apr 18 2025 12:10 utc | 108
I’d like to add a different angle to what other barfiles have pointed out.
When B published an article a couple of months ago demonstrating the changing trend in Russian operations around November, he provided information.
When you compare Russian advances against an arbitrary metric (the mean advance in SqKm), starting almost dialy with “another bad day”, you don’t provide information, you (most probably consciously) do information warfare, akin the ‘yes, but at what cost’, directed against the Chinese, B has also written about.
Last time I heard someone finding my performance below the average of the group, it was because he was setting up a pretext for firing me. And a stupid one at that, since in many real world situations around 50% of the observations are below the average, but no one fires half the workforce just because their performance, according to any metric, is below average. Even more so, when this metric is positive.
Now, you have every right to disagree with the slow approach of the RF MoD, although the argument has been debated to exhaustion. But then, why bother and calculate a metric that you know it will look bad, according to your standards? And how come you find most days to be ‘bad’ (below average), when approximatelly half of them should have been ‘good’ (above average)?
To me, that whole thing seems nothing more than pretext to drop the line: ‘just another bad day for the Russians’
And let me guess, if we get to a new phase in the war the catch-phrase will be: ‘above-average, but at what cost?’
Posted by: RandomLurker | Apr 18 2025 13:30 utc | 120
…Anonymous/Julian/vargas/shadowbanned/any other handles the Troll Collective uses, and not directed at Newbie.
Posted by: James M. | Apr 18 2025 13:03 utc | 118
My problem with them all is that they fancy themselves some kind of gatekeepers who are to judge the RuAF work against some imaginary metrics that they pulled out of their asses. Each of them would shit their pants should thry happen to be at the LoC, but they dare to judge.
Posted by: Rutte | Apr 18 2025 13:37 utc | 121
It’s likely that Rubios statment is a altimatuim to zelensky, as thus….
Except you have lost the four Eastern Oblasts.
And negotiate from their. or we (the US) walk away.
What Russia would make of such a development would be very interesting.
It would certainaly make for a difficult decision form Vladimir Putin.
Posted by: Mark2 | Apr 18 2025 13:42 utc | 122
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bx-hCqLecCE
Hard for me to know what to make of this guy but I do think there is an underlying idea behind his videos. He notes surrenders in particular and sudden advances – so I think he strongly believes in the future sudden collapse scenario. Ukraine will go on in seeming stagnation for an extended period (as we can see) but eroding consistently until a tipping point is reached – and he is anticipating that outcome.
Posted by: Eighthman | Apr 18 2025 13:43 utc | 123
Posted by: pepe | Apr 18 2025 13:30 utc | 119
Yes that is what we (and Russia) hope to be the case. That is legally non-binding and worthless. But the Nazis in the rump state will be chomping at the bit at anything, no matter how tenuos to bind themselves to the Waste.
The Budapest Memorandum is not an equivalent because it was signed by 2 parties potentially militarily hostile to one another. This simply isnt the case here, and there will be a definite will (on the part of the Ukrainians at least) to ensure it is front and centre and at all times.
Posted by: Night Tripper | Apr 18 2025 13:46 utc | 124
@Waldorf | 113
Early in the war, they [SS] were all-German. Then as the war went on Volksdeutsche (ethnic Germans with varying degrees of credibility attached to the label) were recruited, and then non-Germans considered Aryan like Dutch and Norwegians, and finally Slavs, Balts etc.
When the Armenians wanted to do SS too, Hitler hat them vetted according to his racial theories. Came back the answer, “Jawoll mein Führer, they are more Aryan than us!”
Posted by: persiflo | Apr 18 2025 13:46 utc | 125
James M@118….entirely on Ukrainian territory…..ah, we following the same war? Lots of stuff outside of 404 goes poof, well only in Russia, they are stuck killing Ukie fodder to stop NATO in Britkrainia. Since Britkrainia is not a party to peace talks I would expect the terror level of threats and actions against Russian citizens and chattel will increase globally.
Thank God Russia is contained in 404, otherwise some nasty people might die……or at least get wrist slapped……
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Apr 18 2025 13:51 utc | 126
Posted by: Mark2 | Apr 18 2025 13:42 utc | 122
There is a lot of noise about USA propositions or wishful thinking.
No one even consider the RF position that it’s clear and steady from the very beginning.
RF, unless forced in some way, will not set for less than the declared targets.
Posted by: Mario | Apr 18 2025 13:51 utc | 127
It’s likely that Rubios statment is a altimatuim to zelensky, as thus….
Except you have lost the four Eastern Oblasts.
And negotiate from their. or we (the US) walk away.
What Russia would make of such a development would be very interesting.
It would certainaly make for a difficult decision form Vladimir Putin.
Posted by: Mark2 | Apr 18 2025 13:42 utc | 122
Not really, if the rest of ukraine is under general terms required by RF, that will do.
And it’s at a very nice discount for trump, he can proudly present it as a major win (and it is, a magnanimous RF offer)
Posted by: Newbie | Apr 18 2025 13:56 utc | 128
No one even consider the RF position that it’s clear and steady from the very beginning.
RF, unless forced in some way, will not set for less than the declared targets.
Posted by: Mario | Apr 18 2025 13:51 utc | 127
Where are the potential agreements that Putin spoke of for minerals deals with the US?
Unsigned, and ignored by the Outlaws of course.
Posted by: Night Tripper | Apr 18 2025 13:56 utc | 129
Mario @ 127
Liked 👍 and agreed.
If the mineral deal was the US sideing with ukraine and europe their would of been no Rubio statement, the statement would have been worded as a threat to Russia, that was clearly absent.
Hopefully this ambiguity will be cleared up by Trump and his team in a matter of days if not hours.
Posted by: Mark2 | Apr 18 2025 14:00 utc | 130
entirely on Ukrainian territory…..ah, we following the same war
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Apr 18 2025 13:51 utc | 126
I should have clarified ground troops, as in there are no Ukrainian soldiers on Russian territory save for those deadenders, Mr. “Russia hasn’t cleared Kursk yet.” Yes an occasional drone or swarm might get through and hit, but Ukraine doesn’t control the tempo of this war. They cannot force the Russians out of Ukrainian “territory” whereas the Russians can force the Ukrainians out of Russian land.
Posted by: James M. | Apr 18 2025 14:02 utc | 131
Not surprised Germany doesn’t want anyone going to the May 9th Victory parade in Moscow. After all, it’s a celebration of the defeat of the Germans, who killed millions…..
Posted by: HERMIUS | Apr 17 2025 12:19 utc | 3
Kaja Kallas has made that demand.
Posted by: MAKK | Apr 18 2025 14:04 utc | 132
Posted by: Mark2 | Apr 18 2025 14:00 utc | 130
the threat doesnt need to be articulated out loud, its implicit by the terms of the deal.
A Neutral rump Ukraine is out of bounds now.
Posted by: Night Tripper | Apr 18 2025 14:07 utc | 133
Spanish Factory to Assemble Ukrainian Armored Military Vehicles
Spanish automobile manufacturer Tecnove has secured a contract to produce armored combat vehicles for Ukrainian industry partner Practika (defensepost)
Does this make Herencia, Spain, (population 8,456) a legitimate war target?
Posted by: Passerby | Apr 18 2025 14:07 utc | 134
Newbie @ 128
Thanks for moveing this conversation onward,
It got stuck in a rut.
You have moved it on, and just inabled me to learn somethig fresh true and posative.
Unlike the naysayers here.
Liked..
Posted by: Mark2 | Apr 18 2025 14:08 utc | 135
It took 87 days for DJT to realize how the U.S. got in over its head in Ukraine. Collective Biden in particular booby-trapped the project from the inside.
The actual *stalemate* is not on the battlefield but at the negotiating table.
The pressure on DJT internally is such that he cannot get to the place VVP needs to reach in order to achieve a durable end to the conflict. Destroying the enemy decisively, as Russia has been doing, is about maximizing strategies & harnessing momentum no matter how long it take to do that. A guy in a rush to prove he’s the most powerful man in the world and able to swing Big Beautiful Deals in a double-quick hurry is incompatible w/ a serious nation addressing an existential threat.
The quick & dirty way was never going to work.
Posted by: steel_porcupine | Apr 18 2025 14:09 utc | 136
125 – There was no specific Waffen-SS Armenian unit. Armenians, usually ex-Red Army soldiers captured by the Germans, were recruited into “Eastern Legions” attached to the German Army. For example, an Armenian battalion based in the south of France confronted Operation Dragoon in the summer of 1944, and was all but wiped out. They wore regular German Army uniform with the addition of a shield in Armenian national colours stitched onto a sleeve.
Posted by: Waldorf | Apr 18 2025 14:11 utc | 137
Posted by: steel_porcupine | Apr 18 2025 14:09 utc | 136
RE: I would add
<<
Re-engagement has been the best outcome for Russia in the negotiation process.
Posted by: steel_porcupine | Apr 18 2025 14:11 utc | 138
Thus, Rubio’s statement seems to be directed primarily at Ukrainian authorities. The intention behind this pressure may be to push President Zelensky into accepting the terms outlined by the U.S. delegation during their meetings in Paris.
Posted by: Justpassinby | Apr 18 2025 11:51 utc | 104
Given the antagonistic attitude of current US administration,Ukraine wouldn’t terribly mind them taking a walk. They hope EU to replace US on the supply side plus boots on the ground. Russia also free to finish it off to the end without hindrance. It could be a rare decision both parties to the conflict agree.
Posted by: Michael J | Apr 18 2025 14:15 utc | 139
The US are going nowhere. They possibly do desperately want to kick the EU into the long grass, but like the degenerate junkies they are, find the willpower required impossible to summon
Posted by: Night Tripper | Apr 18 2025 14:20 utc | 140
The statment was unequvable in some respects.
Do a deal in the comeing 2 or 3 days or America walks away. America has more important prioritys.
Enything else is splitting hairs. (My take)
Posted by: Mark2 | Apr 18 2025 14:22 utc | 141
When you see Witkoff, just substitute Trump. Witkoff is Trump’s direct representative in a way we haven’t seen in U.S. politics since COL House was Wilson’s righthand man. Witkoff has spent an enormous amount of time in direct discussions with Putin.
What guys like Davis miss and the Euros and Zelensky are trying not to acknowledge is that Trump and Putin don’t have any misunderstandings. They have talked a lot. Trump knows that he has no real leverage over Putin. The only thing he can offer Putin, maybe is quicker end to the war with Russia still getting everything it wants for the most part. Putin would like this as that it would cut down in costs and casualties while still accomplishing his goals. And agreements have a way of weathering better than imposing defeat. But if Europe and Zelensky don’t want to do it, Trump will walk away and let Russia do as it will.
When you see Trump make statements or wonder about the impact of a minerals deal, Trump, Witkoff, and Putin have talked enough that they all understand each other. There are no surprises. Trump will not propose something that he knows Putin will not accept. He won’t try to strong arm him, because he knows he can’t.
In the end if this is settled, Russia gets its four provinces and maybe all to the Dnieper. Rump Ukraine can never enter NATO. And Rump Ukraine enters EU. If it isn’t settled, all that still happens six months or a year later with a couple hundred thousand more casualties.
Posted by: CullenBaker | Apr 18 2025 14:23 utc | 142
Posted by: CullenBaker | Apr 18 2025 14:23 utc | 142
So no de-nazification, demilitarisation or neutrality required in the Rump?
I dont think so, somehow. In the sense that Russia would never accomdate such a deal.
Posted by: Night Tripper | Apr 18 2025 14:35 utc | 143
Posted by: Mark2 | Apr 18 2025 14:38 utc | 144
The general terms spoken of by Newbie required are denazification, demilitarisation and neutrality of the rump.
None of that is required under what Cullen proposes.
Posted by: Night Tripper | Apr 18 2025 14:40 utc | 145
Russia handed over another 909 bodies of dead servicemen to Ukraine,
It received 41 Russian bodies in return.
These figures speak for themselves. The catastrophic losses of the Ukrainian military are now inescapable, even for the most deluded Ukrofantasists.
https://x.com/BowesChay/status/1913220915422286185
Posted by: unimperator | Apr 18 2025 14:41 utc | 146
In the end if this is settled, Russia gets its four provinces and maybe all to the Dnieper…
Posted by: CullenBaker | Apr 18 2025 14:23 utc | 142
####
Another MAGA who thinks America will dictate anything to Russia. 😂😂😂
This is difficult for Americans to understand. Russia has won the war, Russia dictates all of the terms.
Trump has to answer the media but he was never part of this process except feeding the war materiel during his first term.
The Axis has been gentle and tolerant with him, increasingly leading him on discussions to nowhere. He gets his soundbites but nothing tangible.
And even the soundbites are dwindling. The worst first-100-days in the modern era.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 18 2025 14:42 utc | 147
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 18 2025 14:42 utc | 147
100% spot on
Posted by: Night Tripper | Apr 18 2025 14:44 utc | 148
So no de-nazification, demilitarisation or neutrality required in the Rump?
I dont think so, somehow. In the sense that Russia would never accomdate such a deal.
————————————————
Well, I’m sure there may be some additional details to the main points I proposed and those may be among them. But what a lot of you “Russia will never accommodate “ guys miss is that eventually Russia will have to make a choice if there is no peace deal. Does it keep going all the way to the Polish border to achieve those goals you mentioned and everything it could possibly want, or does it stop at the Dnieper and declare victory?
One more point of leverage Trump has with Putin is that I don’t think that Putin under any circumstances wants to cross the Dnieper and conquer the entirety of Ukraine. So, at some point Putin needs what is left of Ukraine and the Euros to agree to peace.
So, yeah, Russia will eventually make some “accommodations “ if it actually wants to end the war and avoid a larger conflagration.
Posted by: CullenBaker | Apr 18 2025 14:44 utc | 149
Posted by: CullenBaker | Apr 18 2025 14:44 utc | 149
####
Americans don’t understand because they don’t win wars.
Russia doesn’t need America. Russia is America’s only point of friendly contact with the SCO/BRICS superpower bloc.
America is redundant and weak economically, diplomatically, and militarily. No longer the “leader of the world”.
Trump is the last President of American Empire.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 18 2025 14:51 utc | 150
As a young girl ( in the 70s)I went to Germany as a language student with the Trans-Canada Alliance of German Canadians.
We went to Rotenburg where we met a bunch of US soldiers stationed there. They heard us speaking English and joined our table. They were so thrilled for our company they invited us to their base for dinner and dancing.
They told us how the Germans hated their guts and would not let their daughters date them.
We also went to the Lars Canadian base where the soldiers were a little more welcomed.
During my stay we visited Dachau and the Buchenwald Memorial.
It was the most gruesome experience of my life and changed my perspective of Humanity.
And now the Jews have become the barbarians committing genocide with Germany as their footstool.
Posted by: ld | Apr 18 2025 14:52 utc | 151
Night Tripper
Cullen bless him isnt party to the negotiations.
Where as Newbie is stating Vladimire Putins stated terms for a ceaseation from day one.
Posted by: Mark2 | Apr 18 2025 14:54 utc | 152
####
Americans don’t understand because they don’t win wars.
Russia doesn’t need America. Russia is America’s only point of friendly contact with the SCO/BRICS superpower bloc.
America is redundant and weak economically, diplomatically, and militarily. No longer the “leader of the world”.
Trump is the last President of American Empire.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 18 2025 14:51 utc
————————
Well, bro, you’re a proven dumbass who understands nothing about anything but loves to bloviate about all.
But no one is disputing that Russia has won. It has. It will. But even then, the enemy gets a vote and Russia doesn’t get to quit if the enemy doesn’t. Is Russia prepared to go to the Polish border and then to the Channel if Europe gets involved? And then across the channel to Britain?
You seem to believe that war is like a game of Risk.
Posted by: CullenBaker | Apr 18 2025 15:00 utc | 153
The latest in petulant Trump ploys from Reuters
US will abandon Ukraine peace push if no progress ‘within a matter of days,’ Rubio says
Fantasmagorical projection of guilt on the wrong parties, eh empire?
Posted by: psychohistorian | Apr 18 2025 15:00 utc | 154
Posted by: Mark2 | Apr 18 2025 14:22 utc | 141
Yup, that’s why Trump’s moved more military equipment to the Southern border than the Ukrainian one. Whilst helping to end the war allows a campaign pledge to be kept, the political impact of stopping another conduit of DS funding, whilst publicly spiking one of their ‘projects’ is greater than the diplomatic one.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 18 2025 14:42 utc | 147
Winning a war and ending it are two things entirely, if the US pulls out all support for Ukraine the latter will occur far quicker and at a far lower cost in blood and treasure.
Posted by: Milites | Apr 18 2025 15:07 utc | 155
But even then, the enemy gets a vote and Russia doesn’t get to quit if the enemy doesn’t.
Posted by: CullenBaker | Apr 18 2025 15:00 utc | 153
Without US funding, weapons and intelligence, it gets no vote whatsoever actually.
Posted by: Night Tripper | Apr 18 2025 15:09 utc | 156
But even then, the enemy gets a vote and Russia doesn’t get to quit if the enemy doesn’t.
Posted by: CullenBaker | Apr 18 2025 15:00 utc | 153
Without US funding, weapons and intelligence, it gets no vote whatsoever actually.
Posted by: Night Tripper | Apr 18 2025 15:09 utc
——————————
Wrong. Unless you are willing to kill every single one of them, the enemy always gets a vote.
Posted by: CullenBaker | Apr 18 2025 15:12 utc | 157
You seem to believe that war is like a game of Risk.
Posted by: CullenBaker | Apr 18 2025 15:00 utc | 153
#####
And you seem trapped in a Western media/propaganda bubble.
Ukraine doesn’t get a vote. Trump doesn’t get a vote.
It is delusion to think otherwise. Last year I pushed an exercise for patrons at MoA to lay out what leverage Trump had to negotiate with Russia. No one had a good answer and now we see that becoming reality.
Trump’s numerous deadlines are weakness.
No one of substance is taking his frequent ultimatums seriously. They play along because they know in a week or two, Trump will have moved on. Better to indulge the nuclear armed toddler until the inevitable nap time hits.
Time is not the Empire’s side. Every single day, the ROW moves past the unipolar moment, and oops! No one sent America an invitation. 😂😂😂
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 18 2025 15:14 utc | 158
Milltes @ 155
Liked @ 👍
Probaby to keep northan americans in rather than South Americans out ! ☺
Posted by: Mark2 | Apr 18 2025 15:16 utc | 159
Canadian Gang Fight! Unbelievable
https://x.com/NUCLRGOLF/status/1912491880593367051?t=27s
Posted by: Jerr | Apr 18 2025 15:17 utc | 160
And you seem trapped in a Western media/propaganda bubble.
Ukraine doesn’t get a vote. Trump doesn’t get a vote.
It is delusion to think otherwise. Last year I pushed an exercise for patrons at MoA to lay out what leverage Trump had to negotiate with Russia. No one had a good answer and now we see that becoming reality.
Trump’s numerous deadlines are weakness.
No one of substance is taking his frequent ultimatums seriously. They play along because they know in a week or two, Trump will have moved on. Better to indulge the nuclear armed toddler until the inevitable nap time hits.
Time is not the Empire’s side. Every single day, the ROW moves past the unipolar moment, and oops! No one sent America an invitation. 😂😂😂
—————————————-
And you’re an idiot. How many times have you spoken to Putin directly? I guarantee it’s less than Trump and Witkoff have.
Trump and Putin have no misunderstandings now. They’re on the same page. As I said, the only thing Trump can offer Putin is the possibility of getting pretty much all he wants more quickly and easier. That’s it. Nothing Trump or Putin says to the world is a surprise. Trump isn’t going to propose one single thing that he knows beforehand is a deal breaker to Putin.
And yes, the enemy ALWAYS gets a vote. Even making someone kill you to the last man is a vote.
The simple minded delusion around here from people who have never even so much as negotiated the purchase of a car is ridiculous.
Posted by: CullenBaker | Apr 18 2025 15:25 utc | 161
14th Waffen SS Division was a Ukrainian Nazi unit, used extensively to eliminate Poles, Jews, Romanians and Hungarians who were not sympathic to the Nazi movement or were considered undesireables. The units, much the SS Police Division (the most notorious Waffen SS division) were not considered front line combat units, but were charged with keeping order in the rear areas already conquered, and dealing with partisan units.
These Waffen SS units committed numerous war crimes.
And yet the Canadian government gave large numbers of the 14th asylum after the war, since most of the 14th retreated with other German units and were captured by the Western allies and not the Russians.
Posted by: tobias cole | Apr 18 2025 15:28 utc | 162
Any ideas on why marat’s substack is without updates for over a week?
Meanwhile we already have today’s update (still 1.400ish)
Summary of the last day
During the day, the Armed Forces of Ukraine defeated manpower and military equipment in 143 districts. There are no reports of militant counterattacks in any of the areas.
Destroyed during the day: 1 multiple launch rocket system, 19 tanks and other armored vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (3 of them in the Sumy direction), 51 vehicles (6 in the Sumy direction), 299 drones. It was also reported that 62 artillery installations and probably mortars were destroyed (1 at Sumy).
The daily losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine amounted to 1,415 military personnel, of which 335 were in Donetsk (South), 315 in the Pokrovsky direction (Center), 260 in Kupyansk (West), 135 in South Donetsk (East), 85 in Kherson (Dnieper), 60 in Kharkov (North, including Belgorod). 225 Ukrainian Armed Forces militants were killed in the Sumy area.
The continuation of the destruction of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk and Sumy regions. Advance to Gornal on the right bank of the river. Psel.
Liberation of new regions of the Russian Federation
Full release of Valentinovka (the card is being specified). An official statement on the complete liberation of Preobrazhenka. Entrance and securing in the eastern part of Malaya Tokmachka. Liberation of Valentinovka, expansion of control west of Sukhoi Balka. Capture of a terricon in the north of Dzerzhinsk, advancing to the Church of Matrona of Moscow. Advancing in Kamenka, clarifying the front line. The presence of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the gray zone north of the Spill.
The day before: The complete liberation of Kalinovo with an advance of more than 4 km, the straightening of the front line to Alexandropol, the expansion of control west of Sukhoi Balka.
Posted by: Newbie | Apr 18 2025 15:28 utc | 163
Wrong. Unless you are willing to kill every single one of them, the enemy always gets a vote.
Posted by: CullenBaker | Apr 18 2025 15:12 utc | 157
In no conflict does a weaponless opponent get a vote.
Posted by: Night Tripper | Apr 18 2025 15:31 utc | 164
Let’s see what Tass has as front page and read it as a RF signaling.
US offers easing of anti-Russia sanctions as part of Ukrainian settlement — Bloomberg
US envoy says territorial issue could be partially resolved in Russia’s favor
US has other things to focus on following three years of support to Ukraine — Rubio
I would say it smells of deal, and trump is sweetening it on the sanctions angle.
As for ukraine’s vote they should consider that they’d be voting to continue a war without us support… sucks to be 99% dependent…
Posted by: Newbie | Apr 18 2025 15:42 utc | 165
Posted by: Newbie | Apr 18 2025 15:42 utc | 165
Root causes not addressed, the Russians simply will not countenance any re-heated Kellogg deal.
Posted by: Night Tripper | Apr 18 2025 15:50 utc | 166
Posted by: Night Tripper | Apr 18 2025 13:56 utc | 129
Those are rumors.
I stick with what Lavrov and Putin keep saying.
Posted by: Mario | Apr 18 2025 16:00 utc | 167
Posted by: CullenBaker | Apr 18 2025 15:00 utc | 153
Enemy, if completely defeated had never a say.
Do you really think that RF must go all way to polish border?
The simple answer is no.
Posted by: Mario | Apr 18 2025 16:07 utc | 168
Root causes not addressed, the Russians simply will not countenance any re-heated Kellogg deal.
Posted by: Night Tripper | Apr 18 2025 15:50 utc | 166
Major root cause is nato (WITH THE US) impinging on RF.
If trump says, “we’re out” you are more than able to deal with the rest as it pleases you… that should be enough.
Europe has no real teeth and they’ll be lucky that putin is willing to offer them a deal they can’t refuse.
uk might get a pass, but will forever be airstrip one and us’s poodle…
Posted by: Newbie | Apr 18 2025 16:11 utc | 169
If trump says, “we’re out” you are more than able to deal with the rest as it pleases you… that should be enough.
Europe has no real teeth and they’ll be lucky that putin is willing to offer them a deal they can’t refuse.
uk might get a pass, but will forever be airstrip one and us’s poodle…
Posted by: Newbie | Apr 18 2025 16:11 utc | 169
Again demilitarization, denazification and Neutrality (whch has nothing to do with NATO per se) arent root causes?
Posted by: Night Tripper | Apr 18 2025 16:21 utc | 170
And you’re an idiot. How many times have you spoken to Putin directly? I guarantee it’s less than Trump and Witkoff have.
Posted by: CullenBaker | Apr 18 2025 15:25 utc | 161
####
I might be an idiot. I have replied to you multiple times today.
You manage to make an interesting point.
I have spoken to Putin as much as you have spoken with Trump.
What’s left is logic and deduction. That is why I proposed my thought experiment last year.
So, I will ask you. What does Trump have that Putin needs? And if you have something, why is Putin under time-pressure to make a deal on Trump’s timetable?
You do not seem to understand the SMO is a response to an existential problem caused by America and promoted by Trump in his first term.
Also, you don’t seem to have any insight into Russian society or how deeply the Russian military hates America today.
Putin and Trump serve at the pleasure of multiple power structures not the voters. Putin cannot go too hard against the Ministry of Defense. Trump cannot go too hard against Wall Street. Wall Street serves the CIA and Pentagon.
I maintain that America is in a rapid decline and everyone knows it. Any “deals” that Trump cuts with anyone this year are people playing for time. America is agreement incapable.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 18 2025 16:27 utc | 171
🇺🇸🇺🇦 Ukrainian channel RezidentUA writes:
Our source in the delegation in Paris reported that the Trump Administration set strict conditions for Andriy Yermak regarding a temporary ceasefire, which is supposed to begin soon, or the U.S. will completely halt weapons supplies and start auditing the funds allocated to Ukraine. The Secretary of State had a brief conversation with the Head of the Office of the President, after which our position changed, and we agreed to make a decision in London next week.
theres also alleged leaks that the us is offering eu sanctions relief on russia (but those idiots are already planing their 17th package) and “recognition of the (liberated) territories” plus a “gradual sanctions relief” if the ceasefire is reached.
but for some strange reason, they completely ignore that a ceasefire is not the thing russia wants…
Posted by: Justpassinby | Apr 18 2025 16:29 utc | 172
Posted by: Newbie | Apr 18 2025 16:11 utc | 169
####
It’s been months and Trump has not left NATO and he has still not cut off information sharing.
He’s trying to be cute and I don’t think the Axis is impressed.
America already started Trump’s second term with a credibility deficit.
And now? 😂😂😂
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 18 2025 16:31 utc | 173
And now? 😂😂😂
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 18 2025 16:31 utc | 173
Now we wait
Posted by: Newbie | Apr 18 2025 16:50 utc | 174
Vice president Vance say’s
“We are confident we can bring this war to a close”
That was’nt long to wait ! 😎
Posted by: Mark2 | Apr 18 2025 17:04 utc | 175
Posted by: Newbie | Apr 18 2025 16:50 utc | 174
####
The ROW is not waiting.
Accelerating dynamism is the norm outside of the West.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 18 2025 17:04 utc | 176
iirc the one slowdown in US aid accelerated RF gains. The successful Kursk counter offensive occurred during a week or so US aid intelligence pause.
UKrain should take note of the Rubio implied threat, their defenses will at a minimum partially collapse if aid is reduced. What happens if it stops for a month? Or permanently? EU aid is a stop gap to a total rout. It’s not just the money and weapons, it is also morale, the UKr soldier thinking ‘somebody is on our side’ vs. ‘on our own’.
Yes, Trump admin gets SOME say on the negotiations, as it is a proxy war that could be continued. Another round or spate of high sea ‘accidents’ as recently shown, would not be in Russ favor, which is something relatively easy for the US and unstoppable in that surface ocean domain. This is tempered and balanced by Russia ability to counter elsehow, and global need for Russian products.
They now have a tenuous position in Syria due to their focus on the next door war. Notice the US has allowed Russia those bases, draining military/economic resources, and has stated a partial withdrawal of troops in Syria as a de-escalation in that country. This is the visible iceberg of the negotiations. Imo the reason for US NATO UKrain provocation is/was the fall of Hezbollah pipeline Assad Syria. Was-wussreali the main security objective.
Of course Russia will have the strong hand as the land army advantage continues to slowly accelerate to the exponential.
Posted by: jopalolive | Apr 18 2025 17:27 utc | 177
❗️🇷🇺💥🇺🇦🏴☠️ There is a blow to the energy sector in Konotop (Ukraine).
The moratorium is over.
https://t.me/ZandVchannel/149731
Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 18 2025 17:37 utc | 178
Jesus came back from the dead after 3 days,
And that was coinsidently at Easter time.
Can zelensky pull off a similar mirical this easter ?
Posted by: Mark2 | Apr 18 2025 17:46 utc | 179
Posted by: Milites | Apr 18 2025 15:07 utc | 155
#########
As you’re a Western man, I cannot take you seriously when you speak about winning wars.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 18 2025 17:50 utc | 180
To be even-handed, I will offer a recognition of how excellent Europeans are at colonialism and genocide.
May suck at war but excellent at killing civilians.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 18 2025 17:56 utc | 181
Posted by: jopalolive | Apr 18 2025 17:27 utc | 177
####
I think you’re misreading the Syrian situation.
Russia in Syria enables them to support their increasing African footprint (BRICS partners in Ethiopia and Egypt) and is close enough to help Iran and provide protection for the North-South Transport corridor.
I never used to, but lately, I have been looking at maps to try to understand why certain geopolitical decisions are being made. Logistics are everything.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 18 2025 18:01 utc | 182
I never used to, but lately, I have been looking at maps to try to understand why certain geopolitical decisions are being made. Logistics are everything.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 18 2025 18:01 utc | 182
And I suggest you use google earth, not flat maps, and use the radius/circle tool.
Useful on short distances for range and for spheres of influence on larger radius.
Posted by: Newbie | Apr 18 2025 18:39 utc | 183
Posted by: Newbie | Apr 18 2025 18:39 utc | 183
########
“Spheres of influence” is a Western model, like the Strauss-Howe Generational model, about “turnings”.
Power and growth are coalescing in the East, and AFAIK, the Chinese and Iranians do not use Western models.
Influence and trade are global now. Logistics are everything.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 18 2025 19:09 utc | 184
I never used to, but lately, I have been looking at maps to try to understand why certain geopolitical decisions are being made. Logistics are everything.
Posted by: LoveDumbass | Apr 18 2025 18:01 utc | 182
‘And I suggest you use google earth, not flat maps, and use the radius/circle tool.
Useful on short distances for range and for spheres of influence on larger radius.”
Posted by: Newbie | Apr 18 2025 18:39 utc | 183
LoveDumbass is the epitome of ,’knows just enough to be dangerous’
Posted by: canuck | Apr 18 2025 19:23 utc | 185
Washington is going to make every effort to put out the narrative that the US has cut off intelligence, but I can tell you, they won’t, because there’s no way you can verify if they have.
That is the only main issue for Ukraine imo. Let’s face it, the majority of damage Ukraine does is with mines and drones, neither of which they rely on the US for anyway. Other than intelligence, what is the US really bringing to the table anymore? Overpriced patriots? Some old bradleys from the middle east? I mean…
I do expect this to become a highly partisan issue going forward though.
Posted by: Jimieus | Apr 18 2025 19:28 utc | 186
US & Ukraine Sign Memorandum on Mineral Resources Deal
https://www.rt.com/news/615925-us-ukraine-sign-memorandum-resource-deal/
“The US and Ukraine have signed a preliminary outline of a rare-earths deal, a senior official in Kiev has said. The potential agreement – which the US views as a way to return money spent on assistance to Kiev in the conflict with Moscow – could be signed as early as next week…”
Posted by: John Gilberts | Apr 18 2025 19:33 utc | 187
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 18 2025 19:09 utc | 184
The point was using the circle tool.
Call it what you want.
Posted by: Newbie | Apr 18 2025 19:38 utc | 188
@John Gilberts, §187:
Any deal is meaningless since the rare earths are mostly in the Donbass – under Russian control and likely to remain so.
Posted by: John Marks | Apr 18 2025 19:54 utc | 189
Aaron Mate: NATO’s War Narratives Collapse
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wvynCKVfMWw
A chat with Glenn Diesen about the Ukraine proxy war.
Posted by: John Gilberts | Apr 18 2025 20:32 utc | 190
Daily DS update: https://deepstatemap.live/en#6/49.4383200/32.0526800
Overall: Another meager day with single digit advance, +5.2 kmsq.
Specific changes, S to N:
1. [UFA win] Small loss of RFA position in Udachne, part of the W Pokrovsk flank. The change was from red to gray, not UFA control. Clearly the forces are contesting both Udachne and Kotylne. After the (good) progress by the RFA months ago, in grabbing this area, and threatening taking the last main supply roads to Pokrovsk, UFA has slightly pushed the RFA back and the towns are very very far from settled in RFA hands. Not a good platform, yet, for further RFA advances.
2. Fields S of Sukha Balka, what I call the “H20 front” as that’s the N/S highway. This was a sleepy sector between Pokrovsk and NY since early summer 2024, but has been woken up by repeated, but small, RFA advances recently. One of the few bright spots.
3. Small advance in fields near Katerynivka (Nevske sector). Doesn’t look strategically significant, but at least it’s progress. Take what you can.
3.
Posted by: Anonymous | Apr 18 2025 21:31 utc | 191
120, RandomLurker (great name, btw!)
I have many times given the context for what is small/large. Using two different lenses to think about what that means. It gets boring having to repeat this context, but if you’d followed me more, you’d have seen it.
FWIW:
1. One was the “how does it compare to previous months”. E.g. NOV2024 was 23.5 kmsq/day, so a single digit pace is regression. On the other hand, NOV was better than OCT, better than SEP, better than AUG (not counting Kursk for AUG/SEP against Russia, which I didn’t), better than JUL. And when RFA was getting better, I gave them credit. But, recently it has basically been a worse pace month by month from NOV to DEC to JAN to FEB to MAR to APR. I could be off on the last month or two, when we got into sub 10/day. But the first few were all down, down, down. (Now, it’s reasonable to blame winter…but realize winter comes every year and it sure seems to favor the defense. Also, APR is actually a better weather month than NOV, so it’s not that great of an excuse any longer.)
2. The other context was the “how many years” to take X part of Ukraine. Pick your X, whether all of UKR, or more moderate amounts like Russian speaking parts (to include Odessa/Kharkive), or the “missing parts” of the 4 oblasts, which they formally claim, or even just the remaining 30% of Donetsk oblast. Suffice it to say, at the current pace, it would take them over a decade to take even the most modest objective (Donetsk oblast). I.e. No Odessa, no Kherson, no Zhaporizha, no “everything Putin claimed”. Just that one oblast. As such, the recent pace is miserable.
————–
Now…if you want to believe in the collapse/attrition fairy, fine. Could happen, even! But, no RFA is NOT NOT NOTTITY NOT-NOT “rolling” as some happy believers have claimed.
Posted by: Anonymous | Apr 18 2025 21:52 utc | 192
I’m interested to know why ukronazi vehicles having doors left open and abandoned is now a thing of note. I get it abandoned. But every video seems to note this as if there’s a meaning behind it. Can anyone elaborate?
Posted by: Hankster | Apr 19 2025 1:16 utc | 193
I just want to remind barflies that Germany, that is now saying they are sending Taurus missiles to Ukraine and will operate them for Ukraine, is a US colony just like Japan.
Germany is doing what is being told to do just like when it was told to take the NS2 bombing up the ass.
Posted by: psychohistorian | Apr 19 2025 1:37 utc | 194
I see Rubio is threatening to withdraw from cease fire talks. Scott Ritter thinks this internal strife and efforts to derail talks. My take is US is going to walk away completely and project this as EU’s defeat.
Reading between the lines, this means Taurus use in this conflict will see Russia target NATO states as Article 5 has been exposed as a lie.
Danish drone operators deployed as part of the Danish contingent are already on the ground directly targeting Russian forces.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/50923
Posted by: Suresh | Apr 19 2025 2:33 utc | 195
but Ukraine doesn’t control the tempo of this war. They cannot force the Russians out of Ukrainian “territory” whereas the Russians can force the Ukrainians out of Russian land.
Posted by: James M. | Apr 18 2025 14:02 utc | 131
exactly.
This is how Russia controls the battlefield.
They could stop right now and say, “we done”
And it would be impossible for Ukraine to say, “ok”
Because Russia holds Ukrainian land, Ukraine is forced to attack.
It’s like when putting high value pieces in check, the other player becomes quite predictable.
And Ukraine has been in check since Feb 2022. Russias big retreat gave up lots of land, but not enough for Ukraine to say, “ok, now you have to attack us”.
And this is how Russia is in firm control of the way the battle goes.
Posted by: UWDude | Apr 19 2025 3:26 utc | 196
🇺🇦”50,000 hryvnia,” – Ukrainian Defense Ministry raises rates for bringing a friend
The TCC points have increased the rate by 2.5 times and are promising volunteers 50 thousand hryvnia for each “brought in friend,” The Kyiv Post reports.
Previously, the rate was 20 thousand hryvnia.
This campaign is designed to increase the desire to serve in the army among the population aged 18 to 24, the number of new arrivals of which did not exceed 500 people in 2 months.
Posted by: Justpassinby | Apr 19 2025 6:54 utc | 197
Posted by: Justpassinby | Apr 19 2025 6:54 utc | 197
‘Pals battallions’ were tried by the British in WWI. Unfortunately, given the attrition rate, the consequences for home communities in the aftermath were possibly more devastating than ‘pure’ military loss.
Posted by: James H | Apr 19 2025 7:02 utc | 198
The United States believes that it is important for its European partners to understand that Washington will not “hold meetings about meetings” on Ukraine , State Department spokeswoman Bruce said amid Trump’s threats to withdraw from the negotiating process.
this is something i can get behind. nothing worse then going into a meeting to discuss issues and to find solutions, only to have the whole meeting just end up in drinking coffee and eating free snacks while every proposition is ignored. thats one thing our eu-beaurocracy can do pretty well.
Posted by: Justpassinby | Apr 19 2025 7:03 utc | 199
“LoveDumbass is the epitome of ,’knows just enough to be dangerous'”
Posted by: canuck | Apr 18 2025 19:23 utc | 185
I think that describes a lot of us. LoveDonbass just posts more of it 😇
Posted by: Spectator | Apr 19 2025 7:22 utc | 200