Ukraine Confirms Sumy Strike Target - Russian Build Up For Summer Campaign
Yesterday I reported of Sunday's missile attack in Sumy, Ukraine:
There was a ceremony planned for the seventh anniversary of the founding of the 117th Territorial Brigade. This was to take place in the congress center of the Sumy State University. Medals were to be presented for the recent participation of the brigade in the attack on the Russian oblast of Kursk. Invitations to the commanders of neighboring units were sent out.
...
The Russian military got wind of the event and destroyed the congress center (pics) with two Iskander missiles. There were military and civilian casualties. But under the rules of war the strike was on a legitimate target.
Ukrainian politicians had alleged that the head of the Sumy Oblast State Administration Volodymyr Artiukh had send out the invitation for the event and had arranged for the military ceremony to take place in the middle of the city.
The government of Ukraine essentially confirmed that today by removing Artiukh from his position:
The Cabinet of Ministers has approved the dismissal of Volodymyr Artiukh from the post of head of Sumy Oblast State Administration and the appointment of Oleh Hryhorov to this position.Konotop Mayor Artem Semenikhin accused Volodymyr Artiukh, Head of Sumy Oblast State Administration, of organising a gathering of soldiers from the 117th Brigade for an award ceremony in the centre of Sumy on 13 April.
Artiukh acknowledged that an award ceremony for servicemen took place in the city centre, but did not name the initiator.
Do not expect any western mainstream media to report these facts.
I have for quite some time not reported on the progress of the war in Ukraine. That is not because nothing is happening there. The Russian forces are pressing on all fronts while building up their reserves. Most of the many small pushes are successful but the current progress isn't measured in miles per day.
This is an attrition war. The capturing of land, which still happens, is not the measure of success. The destruction of the enemy's material and personnel resources is what matters. In this regard the Russian forces are making good progress. Over the last month the daily Ukrainian casualties as reported by the Russian Ministry of Defense have crept up from a low of about 1,200 per day to some 1,500 per day now. That is still far away from the 2,500 per day reported during the summer and fall of 2024 but still a noticeable increase.
There is also an intensification of air and drone strikes on military factories far behind the frontlines. Instead of once or twice per week these are now a daily occurrence. The results of these strikes are only rarely reported. They do not have an immediate effect on the fighting. But they will over time diminish Ukraine's resources and its supplies of weapons and munition.
The ground in Ukraine is still muddy. Only when it dries up will we see a general campaign by the Russian forces.
They will look for weak spots in Ukraine's defense lines and push on each of those until one or more breakthroughs occur. Fresh forces will then moved up to exploit the breaches.
Posted by b on April 15, 2025 at 15:07 UTC | Permalink
next page »"Over the last month the daily Ukrainian casualties as reported by the Russian Ministry of Defense have crept up from a low of about 1,200 per day to some 1,500 per day now."
=====================
This is such a horrific thing.
How can European leaders be gung ho to continue this slaughter?
And throw their own children into the charnel house?
For what?
Per Alex Krainer (in an interview with Glen Diessen), the answer is: It is for European elites to preserve their hegemony in their own countries and the EU. Elites' enthusiasm has to be seen, actually, as a class war and a defensive action against new domestic and international political and economic structures in which they will not hold on to the power they have exercised for the past four centuries.
Posted by: Jane | Apr 15 2025 15:32 utc | 1
We will see how Ukraine's in-country reserves of military supplies last given what I expect to be a cessation of supplies from the US. China's export ban on rare earths must be leading the US to realise that arms that are wasted in Ukraine will not then be able to be easily replaced, thus crippling an armament build up in anticipation of war with China.
And to think that Trump gave China the perfect excuse to shut the rare earth gate!
Posted by: Marduk | Apr 15 2025 15:36 utc | 2
This is such a horrific thing.
How can European leaders be gung ho to continue this slaughter?
And throw their own children into the charnel house?
For what?
Posted by: Jane | Apr 15 2025 15:32 utc | 1
Because they're not actually sacrificing their children. Ukrainian, Poles, even Columbians- there is no shortage of any of them, and Europe will happily expend them all.
I've said often that if Russia doesn't make Tel Aviv into an example, nukes from France and Britain might very well reach Moscow. This will only end when the European elites realize how much they have to lose personally.
Posted by: They Call Me Mister | Apr 15 2025 15:49 utc | 3
North Korea...
The DPRK supplies half of the ammunition Russia needs on the front lines.
Terrorist Budanov told Reuters this, and his assessment is confirmed by an investigation by the publication and the British research organization Open Source Centre.
An anonymous Ukrainian military expert said North Korea's contribution was 70 percent.
Reuters concluded that Russian artillery units at times used almost exclusively North Korean ammunition.
Which begs the question...
What is the Russian production being hoarded for then?
After all, this industry continues to operate and produce, so what is Russia preparing for with millions and millions of shells...etc.?
For the lunatics from Brussels?
Posted by: Bertold | Apr 15 2025 15:56 utc | 4
I've finally posted Lavrov's interview with Kommeesant, "Lavrov Paints Fuller Picture in Interview with Kommersant", which lasted 80-minutes, so the read is long but decidedly different from pervious interviews, including the one just completed at Anatalya.
"How can European leaders be gung ho to continue this slaughter?
And throw their own children into the charnel house?"
Posted by: Jane
The European leaders are Satanists, they love human sacrifice. And the European population consists of stupid sheep. Anyone who enlists as a soldier in an EU army is a brain-dead moron.
Posted by: Apollyon | Apr 15 2025 15:57 utc | 6
This is an attrition war. The capturing of land is not the measure of success. The destruction of the enemy's material and personnel resources is what matters
Not true. This is the same failed claim put forth by air-campaign advocates. And interestingly, the neocons could care less about the human, military losses, until Russia takes the land, particularly the Black Sea coast to Transnistria, the war will continue.
Right now Russia is killing untrained/unwilling conscripts who are being sent to the front upon pain of death in a brutal campaign by the modern day Galician Waffen SS. This is an ethnic cleansing of all those that are considered sub-human in ex-ukrainia, [non-Nazis], those to be exterminated by the cruelest means.
The ground in Ukraine is still muddy. Only when it dries up will we see a general campaign by the Russian forces
True.
Hopefully, this year's good weather will dry the feet of clay that support Russia's high command and they will take the land they need to be secure. And we can call it peace...a peace that could have been agreed to more than a year ago but for the go-slow warfare employed by Russian war planners.
Posted by: S Brennan | Apr 15 2025 16:00 utc | 7
thanks b... great coverage and insights that need to be reemphasized too...
Posted by: james | Apr 15 2025 16:03 utc | 8
@ Jane | Apr 15 2025 15:32 utc | 1
we are in a class war and the elites are winning...
Posted by: james | Apr 15 2025 16:04 utc | 9
Le Monde:
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, stressing that the attack occurred on Palm Sunday, said: "Only bastards do this." (…) US President Donald Trump called the strike "a horrible thing" (…) Trump's special envoy to Ukraine, retired lieutenant general Keith Kellogg, said on X that the attack by Russian forces on civilian targets "crosses any line of decency." (…) French President Emmanuel Macron said it showed Russia's "blatant disregard for human lives, international law and the diplomatic efforts of President Trump." (…) UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said he was "appalled" (…) Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni also condemned the Russian strike: "On this holy day of Palm Sunday, a new horrible and cowardly Russian attack took place in Sumy, once again leaving innocent civilian victims, including, unfortunately, children," Meloni wrote on WhatsApp (…) Germany's chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz said Sunday that Russia committed a "serious war crime." (…) UN Secretary-General António Guterres was "deeply alarmed and shocked" by Sunday's strike (…)
In Gaza nichts Neues.
Posted by: Leuk | Apr 15 2025 16:07 utc | 10
@Posted by: Bertold | Apr 15 2025 15:56 utc | 4
There might be some munition from NK but certainly nowhere near half.
This is from the clowns who tried to to sell us the Ghost of Kiev, NK soldiers and the 'civilian target' in Sumy story.
They never stop lying.
More demonising and slandering 2 enemies at once.
Posted by: Ed Bernays | Apr 15 2025 16:07 utc | 11
Posted by: Bertold | Apr 15 2025 15:56 utc | 4
You seriously expect Budanov and an "anonymous Ukraininan military expert" to issue accurate information on Russian forces and supplies?
Posted by: pasha | Apr 15 2025 16:08 utc | 12
Here in the Uk.
We ship iron ore from Australia to smelt into nice brand new steel, at a large financal loss.
We then make military equipment out of it, at our tax payers expense.
Then we give that military equipment to our best freands the Uqrainian nazi's.
Who promptly get blowen up at a rate of 1,500 a day dying,
Becouse we the british want to protect these nazi freands from the Russians in a war we invented and lied into exsistence, a make beleave war that after 3 years is still a figment of our imagination.
From an economic perspective its not a good buseness plan, no product !
Or am i missing something.
This clearly cant and wont last, its terminal.
Posted by: Mark2 | Apr 15 2025 16:12 utc | 13
Posted by: S Brennan | Apr 15 2025 16:00 utc | 7
So you pretend to know more than Russian war planners about how the Russians should purse their war with ukrops. How many wars have you planned in positions of high command?
And also you pretend to know more than Bernhard about hot to denominate this war, eh?
Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Apr 15 2025 16:15 utc | 14
####
From an economic perspective its not a good buseness plan, no product !
Or am i missing something.
This clearly cant and wont last, its terminal.
Posted by: Mark2 | Apr 15 2025 16:12 utc | 13
Someone is and will be profiting from that failed business. 😎
Posted by: Mario | Apr 15 2025 16:16 utc | 15
"Or am i missing something."
Yes, you are. The British pirates make sure that no Ukrainians survive and the grab the mineral resources.
Posted by: Apollyon | Apr 15 2025 16:19 utc | 16
Over the last month the daily Ukrainian casualties as reported by the Russian Ministry of Defense have crept up from a low of about 1,200 per day to some 1,500 per day now. That is still far away from the 2,500 per day reported during the summer and fall of 2024 but still a noticeable increase.
Posted by b on April 15, 2025 at 15:07 UTC | Permalink
I'm afraid it's still wobbly near 1.400 for latest information
Summary of the last day
During the day, the Armed Forces of Ukraine defeated manpower and military equipment in 144 districts. There are no reports of militant counterattacks in any of the areas.
Destroyed during the day: 2 multiple launch rocket systems (both Himars in the Sumy direction), 17 tanks and other armored vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (4 of them in the Sumy direction), 53 vehicles (13 in the Sumy direction), 304 drones. It was also reported that 67 artillery installations and probably mortars were destroyed (2 at Sumy).
The daily losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have become minimal since April 7 and amounted to 1,420 military personnel, of which 335 in the Pokrovsky direction (Center), 285 in Donetsk (South), 250 in Kupyansk (West), 155 in South Donetsk (East), 100 in Kherson (Dnieper), 90 in Kharkov (North, including Belgorod). The department could not determine the losses in the Kursk direction – 200 were declared, but 5 more were added to the total losses in the direction – 205 (we add the difference in total losses to the table).
The losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces militants inside the equipment that burned down during the day were not counted. Officially registered losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the current year alone (from January 1, 2025) exceeded 160 thousand people, and for the entire time of ITS more than 1 million 150 thousand.
Weekly summary (7 days from April 5th to 11th)
Posted by: Newbie | Apr 15 2025 16:24 utc | 18
Apollyon @ 16
That is part of the crazyness. It'snt happening and never will.
I just wanted to point out the insanity of what we see.
Insanity that has become normalised.
The insanity of war and mass murder.
The true enemy and trators being our own govenments.
It's on the level or worse than the book catch 22.
Posted by: Mark2 | Apr 15 2025 16:28 utc | 19
As a follow on to my #7 comment, I mention one of the men responsible for prolonging the US-Civil-War. Though touted as a hero, the reality is, his fear of failure was the proximate cause of substantial suffering for both north and south.
The cost of Caution
"The central accusation leveled against McClellan is not incompetence in arms, but a deeper deficiency: a persistent reluctance to act, to take responsibility...Despite commanding vast armies outnumbering Confederate forces by three to one, [McClellan] failed repeatedly to seize opportunities or press advantages. His inaction became policy.
McClellan’s flaws were especially evident in his tendency to..demand impossible levels of preparation before committing to action. Time and again, [McClellan] convinced himself—and others—that the Union was at risk of annihilation if it acted prematurely...the paralysis of leadership above was not merely academic: it was lethal...most damning was McClellan’s failure to pursue the retreating Confederates after victories or strategic withdrawals. McClellan had one of the largest armies ever assembled, failed to follow up with urgency..."
Posted by: S Brennan | Apr 15 2025 16:29 utc | 20
(To repeat)
The Ukrainian Civil War Is a mere side Show to the global struggle underway.
Posted by: Exile | Apr 15 2025 16:33 utc | 21
"Do not expect any western mainstream media to report these facts."
The failure of the Western media to report the Ukraine civil war is the most extreme example of self-censorship by the Western media I've ever seen. Even the horrors of Gaza are given more coverage. The death of young men in uniform may be psychologically less shocking than that of babies, but the death toll is ten times that of Gaza, and is absolutely invisible. The press occasionally reports Ukraine's absurd estimates of Russian casualties, but never any rational estimates of Ukrainian losses, and never anything from official Russian sources.
A reason for this silence, beyond general Russophobia & the media's propaganda aims, may be that the authorities know what's likely to happen after any settlement, and are desperate to keep this knowledge from their electors. The remnants of the Ukrainian army will have the same "stab in the back" reaction as the German army in 1918, with this difference: they will be well armed, there will be war profiteers ready to finance them, and millions of their families are already installed legally in Western Europe. They could terrorise Europe, unless the EU finds them some alternative employment ..
Think Freikorps, well-funded and armed with ground to air missiles..
Posted by: geoff chambers | Apr 15 2025 16:48 utc | 22
There might be some munition from NK but certainly nowhere near half.
This is from the clowns who tried to to sell us the Ghost of Kiev, NK soldiers and the 'civilian target' in Sumy story.
They never stop lying.
More demonising and slandering 2 enemies at once.
Posted by: Ed Bernays | Apr 15 2025 16:07 utc | 11
.
Well, in this case, the message does NOT come from the West!
But from a Telegram channel that is more Russian-oriented and one of the best (https://t.me/s/sheyhtamir1974)
But
And given the North Koreans' performance in terms of the quantities of grenades produced monthly...it's quite possible that the numbers are correct.
Just referring to grenades of different calibers and types...North Korea produces more of them in a month than the entire EU in a year, and about 28 times more than the entire West combined.
By the way:
North Korea's multiple launcher is even far superior to the Russian original and is demonstrably in use by the SMO.
So, based on the numbers, it's within the realm of possibility!
Which, in turn, tells me that Russia is probably setting aside millions of units as reserves.
``` One reason could be that the warmongers in the EU are exaggerating...like Merz (Germany) wants to ignite the fire again with Taurus...and it should be known that he is working for and in the interest of Blackrock...and what does Blackrock want...a really big war...this almost chancellor "Merz" their assistant
Posted by: Berthold | Apr 15 2025 16:49 utc | 23
Posted by: Exile | Apr 15 2025 16:33 utc | 21
....global struggle underway.
>>>
And yet again after American-made COVID-19, the military from the Outlaw US of A is preparing for another pandemic to scare the hell out of civil society. This makes sense after the colossal loss in Ukraine, economic and financial issues and the fact that the property market has reached a peak already in February 2025. Notwithstanding, the ongoing genocide in the Middle East without a tenable solution.
Mr. William Henry Gates III (WHG(o)) has been busy as of late.
Posted by: pepe | Apr 15 2025 16:52 utc | 25
Crocodile tears are flowing I'm disgusted about the intense, emotion being poured out by our MSM without even trying to determine if this was a military target and the total disdain for the suffering of Gazans, 35 hospitals and counting.
The Palm Sunday bombing of a Christian hospital in Gaza was just another day in paradise.
It's true, the presence of a military parade does technically make it a military target but I would not order a strike in the middle of a town with civilians present. I could if there was a munitions factory or other unique military infrastructure. Killing a soldier is just killing a soldier, destroying munitions is a force multiplier. I know, war is hell, etc, just giving my honest opinion. Not a warcrime but unfortunate.
Posted by: Christian J Chuba | Apr 15 2025 16:54 utc | 26
what does Blackrock want..??
Posted by: Berthold | Apr 15 2025 16:49 utc | 23
Read this Berthold- IS THE TRUMP TARIFF FINANCIAL CRISIS A CRISIS OF THE DOLLAR?
It doesn't seem to be ......yet !
https://www.crisesnotes.com/is-the-trump-tariff-financial-crisis-a-crisis-of-the-dollar/
This is an article you bookmark forever it is so important. It is an absolutely outstanding piece of work. You are so lucky it is not behind a paywall. Has been given to you for free.
Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Apr 15 2025 16:56 utc | 27
The cost of Caution
Posted by: S Brennan | Apr 15 2025 16:29 utc | 20
You present an excellent example.
Could the south be subjugated, broken and pliant if it hadn't thrown everything (99% of eligible) and end up with 83% killed, wounded or captured?
My guess is that the percentage of those pressed into the AFU is lower, but that the percentage of killed, maimed or captured (as percentage of eligible) is almost there...
You don't want to "win" say mission accomplished and get stuck in a forever war of resistance.
As for those resenting that means almost 4 million ruined lives, I just remind that this did not need to happen, this should not have happened, it was nobody east of the Oder that decided this had to be to the last ukranian.
An exit ramp was provided in 2021.
Another by spring 2022, when casualties were less than 5%.
Then again and again, latest early summer 2024, things had come to the 80% level by then but peace was offered at terms not significantly worse than before.
Every time someone thought that letting the AFU pay everything to cause whatever damage to RF was an acceptable price for a war the AFU could not win.
Even now the question is WTF? Without nato boots on the ground (and crashing planes in the sky), 2026 is not a year AFU will be able to hold alone.
Capitulation will soon be the only possible result.
Posted by: Newbie | Apr 15 2025 17:08 utc | 28
Muh attrition is a cope that both sides use. (On the Ukrop side they talk about meat waves and the like.) Both sides have biased reporting of the other sides losses (and lack clear intel anyways).
Let me know when the attrition gets big enough to allow movement warfare. Or make a clear prediction of when you expect it, based on your believed-in attrition reports. WhirlX was very wrong about the Odessa by early spring2024 prediction, but at least he made one.
Oh...and winter comes every year...and so do mud seasons. Let's see how much hay Russia can make in the summer. As it is now, the UFA has shown the ability to hold the RFA (yes, with a weather helper, but so what...that's life).
P.s. I still remember "b" talking about the gloves coming off and Putin going after Z, after the Kremlin drone attack. Never happened. And "b" never addressed his emotionally driven prediction.
Posted by: Anonymous | Apr 15 2025 17:09 utc | 29
Think Freikorps, well-funded and armed with ground to air missiles..
Posted by: geoff chambers | Apr 15 2025 16:48 utc | 22
That's right...
None of the "smart" intelligentsia in Brussels ever considered the consequences of a Ukrainian capitulation!
Even without capitulation, the security authorities in Europe are already afraid of the day their governments take a NEGATIVE stance against Ukraine.
Since there are already thousands in the country, and among these thousands there are definitely hundreds who would take revenge if, in their opinion, Ukraine is betrayed or abandoned.
An air defense system fits in any trunk, and controls between Ukraine and the EU are like Swiss cheese.
I, over 70 years old, will certainly live to see planes brought down in Paris/London or Madrid/Berlin, etc. Perhaps one of the reasons why Macron and others, at least officially, present themselves as "friends"... to avoid what happens afterward.
If you observe how "incidents" with regular security always occur BEFORE elections, BEFORE meetings; Add up BEFORE decisions... example Germany... BEFORE the election, over 15 incidents involving migrants, including Ukrainians... now, after the election, suddenly QUIET.
I'm sure... in the event of a capitulation to Russia, there will be no refuge for fellow Nazis! A country will be found for the higher-ups, Canada, for example, but the thousands of petty Nazis, the murderers of Azov... WHERE TO?
Poland will be careful... former Soviet republics, well, a few will disappear there, perhaps forever and forever.
The majority will want to escape to the EU... the EU elites will be surprised.
.
Cases like the one in Sumi could become more frequent, with deliberately betrayed locations and times, in order to specifically eradicate the Azov and other forces.
Because they will kill every MP, every commander who wants to lay down their arms. Because it's their death sentence! And dive into the setting sun.
Posted by: Berthold | Apr 15 2025 17:11 utc | 30
b nails it: "This is an attrition war. The capturing of land, which still happens, is not the measure of success. The destruction of the enemy's materiel and personnel resources is what matters. In this regard the Russian forces are making good progress."
Scuttlebutt has it, according to Christoforou during his Cyprus walk-about this morning, that the French have prepared a force in Romania to rush into Odessa, should the U.S. opt *not* to send weaponry/support once the dregs of Collective Biden's final aid package runs out.
It is said that the U.S. materiel will run out in the summer. If the U.S. 'quietly quits' by not sending additional weaponry and begins to pull personnel, then that will signal the end of a *portion* of Project Ukraine, the one in which the U.S. actively participated, but not a full cessation.
By the way, I evoke the phrase 'quietly quitting,' knowing that *nothing* having to do w/ DJT is ever quiet---so we'll hear plenty of loud remarks about it.
My point, though, is that when the U.S. exits, if it does, then that will shift the dynamics significantly to herald a new phase, especially if the French make a run on Odessa, attempting to establish primacy.
Look: Russia will make quick work of the French forces. The tempo will be pell-mell. A grinding war of attrition may still govern the pace along the Dnipr line of contact---but I can expect a show like a grand fireworks finale against the French.
Posted by: steel_porcupine | Apr 15 2025 17:15 utc | 31
VVP to DJT: “Get moving on a deal-!”
(A tweet that never happened.)
Posted by: steel_porcupine | Apr 15 2025 17:19 utc | 32
Posted by: S Brennan | Apr 15 2025 16:29 utc | 20 It seems to me that not nearly enough emphasis is given to the probability that McClellan's politics didn't influence him. The great case against McClellan was sitting on the battlefield waiting for Lee to retreat after his defeat at Antietam. My thought is, he didn't want to annihilate good white men. It's not an accident I think he ran against Lincoln for president. Of course, politically unreliable generals who beat Lee were promptly fired, like McClellan or effectively demoted, like Meade.
That said, on the attrition vs. land debate, McClellan won the attrition in the Peninsular Campaign, yet Lee was universally deemed the winner because McClellan strategically withdrew to a tactical defensive at every point. Lee also lost the (relative) attrition battle during Grant's Overland Campaign, but he was regarded as defeated because he kept withdrawing. But the attrition on Union forces was in absolute figures so high that Lincoln believed he would be defeated in the 1864 elections. Our host may believe attrition is relative numbers...but I believe historically attrition has an indispensable component in taking land to unhinge any tactical/strategic withdrawals and disorder any other attempt to stabilize a new front.
As regards that, the Russian forces are still too small to occupy all Ukraine. I'm not even sure they have enough reserves, in men or logistics or operational capacity, to properly exploit any local breakthroughs this summer. I guess that justifies calling it SMO instead of war, but I'm not clear on
any path to victory in the foreseeable future.
Posted by: steven t johnson | Apr 15 2025 17:19 utc | 33
Posted by: Anonymous | Apr 15 2025 17:09 utc | 29
Don't you have some square kms to count ?
You went full z cheerleader, you never go full cheerleader.
To reply to your request, let's say that if/when RF decides to push the pedal to the floor (late 2025 rhythm), I'd say the AFU has less than 6 months to live (as do most remaining soldiers in their service).
Now... rains can start earlier or later, but betting on having good conditions beyond september might be risky.
So if things are to end before the rain, yes, the increased pace must start pretty soon. May at the latest.
If it doesn't then the objective is no longer finishing off the AFU and the kiev regime, but to muster forces (2 million bayonets strong) for a 2026 confrontation with european nato (and all bets are off as to how much the theater will expand).
I already mentioned that current rate seems precisely in order with reaching 2026 with an army twice as big as in 2022 and with 10 times as free bayonets. You don't store soldiers, if it goes tht far they are to be used. Europe's choice.
Posted by: Newbie | Apr 15 2025 17:25 utc | 34
@geoff chambers #22
Michael Kellogg wrote a book about the influence of White émigrés who fled Russia after the Bolsheviks took over on German Nazism. And "émigrés from Russia" means émigrés from the Baltics and the region today called "Ukraine": https://assets.cambridge.org/97805218/45120/frontmatter/9780521845120_frontmatter.pdf
Posted by: Apollyon | Apr 15 2025 17:26 utc | 35
Even your prediction is conditional. If AFU is still hanging in there, in 2026, you can just say RFA never "pushed the pedal".
Cope, cope, cope. Seen it all before with The Last Refuge, Q-anon crowd before. "Trust the plan."
Posted by: Anonymous | Apr 15 2025 17:29 utc | 36
"Russian forces are still too small to occupy all Ukraine" - steven t johnson 33
To which I note;
" A straw man fallacy is the practice of refuting an argument different from the one actually under discussion, while not recognizing or acknowledging the distinction".
Additionally, with deference to your expertise on all subjects, I prefer to judge historical characters by their actions rather than using a commenters supposition of factually unsupported ulterior motives. And I add, militarily, it doesn't matter why McClellan was such a failure.
Posted by: S Brennan | Apr 15 2025 17:38 utc | 37
Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Apr 15 2025 16:56 utc | 27 Thanks for the link. Unfortunately I suspect my confirmation bias has affected my takeaway, which is that USTs are key to liquidity and de-dollarization requires new institutions for providing global liquidity that no one, not BRICS is even attempting as yet. I also gather that the tremors in the bond market are driven largely by deleveraging from firms under stress, not by some loss of confidence in the ability of the US to pay. And that this is a tremor, not a collapse.
The thing is, I've tended to believe these things already, so maybe it's just wishful thinking, hey, I was right! The temptation to believe that is very strong indeed.
I also gather this gentleman believes DOGE can wreck the Treasury sufficiently that people will lose confidence in the dollars, especially in USTs as the fundamental pool of liquidity. At first glance, this does seem to be a genuine possibility. But the notion that DOGE won't simply obey the dictates of finance capital in the end seems to be a question. DOGE to my eyes seems like a semiprivate initiative of a would-be dictator to undermine government in the sense of one responsive to political interference, aka legislation and any vestige of effective political control by Congress (either or both Houses.)
Posted by: steven t johnson | Apr 15 2025 17:46 utc | 38
Posted by: Anonymous | Apr 15 2025 17:09 utc | 29
Now you are asking for predictions.
Let me tell you.
Noone can make predictions on a war, expecially on timing, even if something could be predicted you will need exact data on what are the goals on each side and what really is going on on the battlefield such as real data on Kia and so on.
Not enough information is available to us.
Posted by: Mario | Apr 15 2025 17:46 utc | 39
(...) Let me know when the attrition gets big enough to allow movement warfare. Or make a clear prediction of when you expect it, based on your believed-in attrition reports.
Posted by: Anonymous | Apr 15 2025 17:09 utc | 29
Back in 1914 there was movement warfare on the western front for six months. Then, each side lacking a decisive victory, soldiers dug trenches protected by landmines, barbwire and supported by heavy artillery. 1915 to 1917 saw massive technolocial leaps forward, including the development of Air forces and armored all terrain vehicles with embarked guns called "tanks". Both of these have reigned supreme throughout the whole following century. Despite these, the static front couldn't be broken until mid 1918, when German forces wasted their last reserves in spring and summer offensives, which despite tactical successes couldn't lead to decisive victory, and were left with not enough soliders to man their trenches all along the frontlines. Overwhelmed by far superior forces, they were led to unconditionnal surrender late 1918.
The pattern is for you to see. It is quite obvious. Just replace western front by eastern Donbass, germans by nato-backed ukrainians, planes and tanks by drones and hypersonics, spring offensive by, well, spring offensive, and you'll get an idea what will inevitably happen. The time doesn't matter and russians generals don't have to oblige to your unability to handle frustration. War is not a video game. Quite early in the SMO, RUAF top command estimated that war will last to at least 2025. The final date is not important, what is important is that NBU is reaching its attrited threshold, and it is a process that no western power is able to reverse. Movement warfare will come when its due, when russians will maximize their gains and minimize their losses.
Posted by: Pierrot | Apr 15 2025 17:48 utc | 40
Posted by: Newbie | Apr 15 2025 17:08 utc | 28
I think it's a poor example. A 19th century war between sides with high fertility rates versus a 21st century war with both sides with low fertility rates.
To rush things taking high casualties because the enemy is retreating is for nations with high fertility rates OR when competing with allies to crush the enemy first.
In addition, rushing things with high casualties will allow the extended enemy to achieve one of their goals. The Jewish comedian is the kind of character that would try to retire happy and rich after sending a million countryfolk to death to satisfy those that made him rich and famous.
Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Apr 15 2025 17:50 utc | 41
Even your prediction is conditional. If AFU is still hanging in there, in 2026, you can just say RFA never "pushed the pedal".
Cope, cope, cope. Seen it all before with The Last Refuge, Q-anon crowd before. "Trust the plan."
Posted by: Anonymous | Apr 15 2025 17:29 utc | 36
Have you seen what I wrote @18?
In spite of ukraine saying, for days or weeks, that RF started a new offensive, I see very little of that.
Yes they are winning, yes there are plenty of nice opportunities for advance, yes the RF army is much bigger.
So why sit on their hands? Right now even attrition was relegated to slow burn. And then I read "start of 2026" somewhere, and the only way for that to happen is RF allowing the pace to slow as AFU resources are depleted. Basically you let the other guy take as long as he wants to get back on his feet before hitting him again... why? Only reason that makes sense is to build up, and clearly not for ukraine, for ukraine current RF levels (taht were clearly too little in 2022) are already overkill.
So yes, you are right that advances are sparse and i tell you that even more significant casualties are too low.
I would be highly tempted to say that RF is already factoring a new confrontation and for reasons that make sense, want it within the current theater as much as possible.
Within easy logistics for RF
Within sphere that belongs to RF
The first is important (at least until china decides to offer RF a massive fleet of wheeled transports)
The second to limit any critique to RF and raise doubts about the other countries actions within that sphere.
RF was baited into ukraine, the form of the SMO neutered some of the worst problems that RF would face.
Now it's time to see if anyone else is baited (and that is one of the reasons not to accept the recent narrative that this is strictly a british operation)
As a final reflection for you, you don't even know what game is being played, how do you want to know when it ends? You can know who wins but not how nor when.
Posted by: Newbie | Apr 15 2025 17:54 utc | 42
Hmm.. as per another post, I wonder how many of the cannon fodder used by Ukraine are ethnic Russians? Could a high Ukrainian death toll be a feature not a bug, the Azovists 'cleansing' their nation? If so the joke is on them, because after they are done with the 'cleansing' they will find overwhelming western pressure to import massive numbers of third-world refugees as a source of cheap labor, and their precious ethnically pure Ukraine will never come to be...
One also notes that even if indeed Russia is winning the current war of attrition, that may be just the opening act of a larger war. The western elites may be abhorrent and evil but they are relentless, they do not care about their civilian populations or the overall health of their societies, just money and power. They will not stop. Imagine they blockade the Baltic Sea and dare Russia to attack them. Imagine they finally overthrow some more border countries - Georgia, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, whatever - and convert them into zombie kamikaze slaves as they already have the Ukrainians? Even the most ardent Russophile must admit that Russia has had to really work up a sweat to take on 20 million Ukrainians - and suppose they have to do this again, and again, and again? And the western elites have near unlimited money, there is no telling who inside Russia they might be able to turn. Putin appears to be a smart man, and perhaps Russia really will win outright, but I would bet on a much longer and messier and broader campaign and there is a lot that can happen...
Posted by: TG | Apr 15 2025 17:55 utc | 43
which is that USTs are key to liquidity and de-dollarization requires new institutions for providing global liquidity that no one, not BRICS is even attempting as yet.
Posted by: steven t johnson | Apr 15 2025 17:46 utc | 38
---
Consider that liquidity isn't necessary when means are sufficient. It is only grease for credit.
Liquidity serves the era of "buy now, pay later". We should move past that idea.
Posted by: too scents | Apr 15 2025 17:59 utc | 44
North America and Europe have emptied their arsenals in Ukraine. When the war is over much will end up in the black market, enough to de-stabilize Europe for years.
Posted by: Passerby | Apr 15 2025 18:01 utc | 45
The U.S. has blocked the G7's condemnation of Russia over the strike on senior foreign military officers in Sumy and their Ukrainian counterparts.
Canada, which is presiding over the G7 this year, was quick to draft the condemnation but then had to pull it back when the U.S. refused to back it.
Think of the rifts forming within the Western constructs. DJT 2.0 is not your daddy's Collective Biden.
Posted by: steel_porcupine | Apr 15 2025 18:04 utc | 46
Posted by: S Brennan | Apr 15 2025 17:38 utc | 37 Politics matters. The vagueness of Putin's stated goal of denazification implies in some form all Ukraine but attrition cannot do this, because leaving so much territory is a recipe for a frozen front. (Political developments in Kyiv that lead to something else are entirely unpredictable.) Worse it is entirely unclear how attrition alone can do this. Your comment @7 verbally stated this but then you confused matters with your comment @20 which reduced Putin's lack of strategic clarity to the clay feet of Russian generals, apparently a bunch of McClellans. (Otherwise, why bring up McClellan at all?) You claim to look at results rather than the politics, but famously, war is politics by other means. Your analysis is incomplete at best.
McClellan is not generally touted as a hero, despite your false statement @20.
Never claimed to have expertise in all matters, but I will match what I do have against your expertise in none. It is entirely unclear why you object so strenuously to my agreement with you on attrition without territorial gains being ineffective. If you don't know what you're objecting to, much less why, do you really have anything to contribute?
Posted by: steven t johnson | Apr 15 2025 18:05 utc | 47
Berthold ( Apr 15 2025 16:49 utc | 23 ) wrote:
"North Korea's multiple launcher is even far superior to the Russian original and is demonstrably in use by the SMO."What is the source for this statement? Social media will not be accepted as trustworthy.
(Nor will anything from the OSCE btw. They also made weird and silly claims about equipment years ago).
A reminder to all that (to the best of my knowledge) the talk of Iranian drones supplied to and used by Russia is still unsubstantiated and denied.
However much I would love both Iranian drones and North Korean artillery and shells it (so far) looks like very dubious rumors :/
· · · · · · · · · · · ·
The "elites" are not winning. "The west" is in the crapper like at no time ever before.
Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Apr 15 2025 18:08 utc | 48
enough to de-stabilize Europe for years.
Posted by: Passerby | Apr 15 2025 18:01 utc | 45
---
You would think that it would be more profitable to destabilize other regions than Europe. Europe is already squoze.
Posted by: too scents | Apr 15 2025 18:11 utc | 49
Posted by: TG | Apr 15 2025 17:55 utc | 43The western elites may be abhorrent and evil but they are relentless, they do not care about their civilian populations or the overall health of their societies, just money and power.
Lol, what a cartoonish view of Western elites. It's so dumb that it spoils the core message of doom and cope.
Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Apr 15 2025 18:14 utc | 50
American Civil War and Russo-Ukrainian war two very different wars, especially geopolitically.
The Union did not have to worry about a United Europe attacking it if it suffered enough losses all at once in some "damn the toroedos, full speed ahead" assault.
Nor was the confederacy bolstered and upheld by this United Europe precisely to inflict enough losses on the Union so Europe can swoop in and take over the Union if it suffered enough losses.
Russia has more to worry about than just losing to Ukraine.
----------
Anonymous/Julian will never address the fact Ukraine needs to kill Russians 8 to 1 to be even in a war of attrition with Russia, more of it somehow thinks it is going to win while losing land every day.
He likes to tout the over optimitic predictions of many here, but he will never address those like me who say the war could last until 2030 or even 2035, that it really does not matter, because in the end, all that matters is the W, and Russia can take these losses forever.
Furthermore, Russian war industry is humming a long just fine, it does not show any signs of winding down signalling Russia expects more war in the future, something NATO just cant seem to get going for some reason.
Anonymous/Julian also can not name the simple key way how Russia has shaped the battlefield, and I mean, name the simple, (to any military hostorian) key way Russia is in control. His analysis is based purely on cynicism, not any kind of even basic strategic understanding of war.
Posted by: UWDude | Apr 15 2025 18:14 utc | 51
@ Sunny Runny Burger | Apr 15 2025 18:08 utc | 48
Russian Geran-2 drones have been more or less defacto accepted as originally based on one of Iranian Shahed drones by both Russian and banderite war coverage channels. There is even documented breakdowns of their evolution over the years by banderite's own tech/drone groups.
Calling them Shaheds happens because gotta blame Iran, that's the only reason. It's more of the tired, old, lazy propaganda, that's all.
Posted by: boneless | Apr 15 2025 18:18 utc | 52
"...per another post, I wonder how many of the cannon fodder used by Ukraine are ethnic Russians? Could a high Ukrainian death toll be a feature not a bug, the Azovists 'cleansing' their nation?" TG - 43
We know from Hungarian and Slovak news reports that in addition to ethnic/inculcated Russians being sent to the front for execution by Russian artillery that the modern day Galician Waffen SS are sending ethnic/inculcated Hungarians and Slovaks to die on the Russian front. As TG points out, the modern day Galician Waffen SS are using Russian artillery to enact globalist goals. Such is the reward of "attrition-warfare", had the 3rd Reich only been as "clever" as globalist and their minions, the modern day Galician Waffen SS.
Posted by: S Brennan | Apr 15 2025 18:19 utc | 53
Even more on the topic of so-called-ukrainians so-called-readiness to continue to die for the West.
The Kiev regime has legalized the recruitment of foreigners into the Armed Forces of Ukraine [...]. Now official recruitment centers will be able not only to agitate, but also to deliver to the so-called Ukraine stateless persons and citizens of other countries who wish to serve in the Ukrainian army.[...]
An attempt to conscript young Ukrainians aged 18–24 failed : only about 500 contract soldiers were recruited from across the country. And the hunt for draft dodgers abroad is running into legal restrictions and so far weak cooperation from Western countries.
So we won't be surprised if, under the guise of recruiting foreigners, recruiters engage in the forced removal of fugitive Ukrainians who, for various reasons, have not received protection in Europe. And the European authorities, judging by their rhetoric, will turn a blind eye to this.
For Kyiv, this is a chance to plug the hole in manpower. For everyone else, it is another reminder of how degraded the very idea of Ukrainian statehood has become.
Posted by: boneless | Apr 15 2025 18:23 utc | 54
Posted by: Pierrot | Apr 15 2025 17:48 utc | 40 But I can't use the WWI analogy, because Kyiv is not an independent actor. The general perspective that it was attrition on the western front that led to German surrender neglects the role of the political collapse of Austria-Hungary throughout October, leading to a military collapse at Vittorio Veneto for one thing. And the ultimate surrender was even more influenced by revolution at home. In one respect, the German Army marched home to crush the revolution, to become Freikorps. That didn't save the monarchy, but how often does anyone get everything they wanted?
Posted by: steven t johnson | Apr 15 2025 18:23 utc | 55
(...) Let me know when the attrition gets big enough to allow movement warfare. Or make a clear prediction of when you expect it, based on your believed-in attrition reports.
Posted by: Anonymous | Apr 15 2025 17:09 utc | 29
A smart person realizes that in life "haste makes waste" and "slow and steady wins the race".
Breathe, just breathe and come back in a month or so. We don't need your daily whine.
Posted by: CeaClearly | Apr 15 2025 18:27 utc | 56
Again, I mourn all the dead in this horrible conflict engineered by Deep $tate entities here in the $tates, under "suggestions" from both City of London and Wall $treet on behalf of all the massive profiteering on blood money by the major shareholders in those financial centers...as well as the WarDefense industrial complex and its many working stiffs who continue their rather well-paying jobs and...damn the consequences.
Even amongst these relative "innocents", those baldies will get caught up in windstorms and there will be Hell toupee.Lady Karma is a bitch and she damned well knows the various levels of guilt.
Posted by: aristodemos | Apr 15 2025 18:39 utc | 57
"McClellan is not generally touted as a hero, despite your false statement" - steven t johnson - 47
Really? Well, I'm sure with your "expertise in all matters" you can get DoD to rescind it's multiple honors bestowed upon the man. Sadly, lacking your "expertise" I relied on first hand knowledge having been trained at
Fort McClellan - Military Bases:
"Fort McClellan, originally Camp McClellan, is a United States Army post located adjacent to the city of Anniston, Alabama. During World War II, it was one of the largest U.S. Army installations, training an estimated half-million troops...after World War II until it was closed in 1999, it was home of the Chemical Corps School, which trained soldiers in chemical warfare.
Please keep posting, your conceit as an "expert in all matters" is an amusement for many, posts such as yours help many people to feel better about themselves.
Posted by: S Brennan | Apr 15 2025 18:39 utc | 58
@Posted by: Berthold | Apr 15 2025 16:49 utc | 23
Thanks, that is a bit more credible as source.
I do suppose the ammo is relatively'cheaper' also in NK.
With the vast numbers needed it would amount to a serious savings in cost.
Posted by: Ed Bernays | Apr 15 2025 18:51 utc | 59
Really?
Posted by: S Brennan | Apr 15 2025 18:39 utc | 58
yes. McClellan is known as the general who couldnt get it done, proven by Grant taking over and getting it done.
Forts and ships and bases are named after all sorts of people, that doesn't make them considered heroes, especially if they are fired.
The only heroes in American lore from The Civil war are Robert E Lee, to a lesser degree Grant, and much lesser degree stonewall jackson. McClellan ranks probably around 30th or so. I have never heard anybody ever refer to him, or consider him a hero.
Do you?
LoL, your essay serms to say, no.
LoL.
Posted by: UWDude | Apr 15 2025 18:55 utc | 60
The menace of Ukrainian revanchism explains why Macron & Starmer are so eager to place Euroboots on Ukrainian soil - not to protect Ukraine from Russia, but to protect Western Europe from angry Ukrainians.
Yesterday a dozen French prisons were attacked, presumably by drug dealers angry at a current government crackdown - in one case with a Kalashnikov. Wait till the voters discover where the Kalashnikovs are coming from, and that they are paying the salaries of civil servants in Kiev.
Immigration, rising insecurity, the threat of war, and the desertion of the USA - these are subjects which are raising voter anxiety to dangerous levels, leading voters to turn to some strong man (or woman) to save them.
Posted by: geoff chambers | Apr 15 2025 19:00 utc | 61
missed out the beginning of the previous post. Here it is:
Berthold | Apr 15 2025 17:11 utc | 30
Thanks to your reply to my post at geoff chambers | Apr 15 2025 16:48 utc | 22
I understood something that I was only speculating about vaguely. You say:
"the security authorities in Europe are already afraid of the day their governments take a NEGATIVE stance against Ukraine."
Posted by: geoff chambers | Apr 15 2025 19:03 utc | 62
UWDude 60,
I take your point, however, in fairness to myself, I said that McClellan was; "touted as a hero".
Much different than what our "expert" related using his repertoire of fallacious arguments, just as I pointed out at 37, the Straw-Man fallacy:
"McClellan is not generally touted as a hero, despite your false statement"
Clearly, DoD [and McClellan's fan base] touted McClellan as a hero, neither I nor do most military historians agree but, that's besides the point. Being touted/promoted as something is far different than being generally acclaimed as something. Again:
"A straw man fallacy is the informal fallacy of refuting an argument different from the one actually under discussion, while not recognizing or acknowledging the distinction"
Posted by: S Brennan | Apr 15 2025 19:16 utc | 63
Berthold, various posts
North Korea maintains extremely large stocks of artillery shells. They have expiration dates, past which they are not totally reliable. They can be recycled, new is better and only slightly dearer. Those are the stocks RF is using. This has been well reported. Entirely possible that in a certain sector of the front a tranche of NK munitions arrives and it appears that NK is a big source of RF armaments.
Posted by: oldhippie | Apr 15 2025 19:22 utc | 64
In case people didn't get already, this is meant to be a loong war, 10+ years, because it benefits ALL sides of the global oligarchy (see: "great reset"/agenda 2030/"sustainable development"). For as long as the people are accepting others as their "authority", this will keep going. The choice is ours. Once this "war" is over, the next one will start.
Posted by: KOB | Apr 15 2025 19:25 utc | 65
Yeah, McClellan is not regarded as a hero. The Civil War is the foundational myth of the American Empire like WW II is the founding myth of the modern globalist system. As such, Lincoln is the founding father and patron saint of the American Empire. McClellan was political opponent of Lincoln before and during the war and was for being generally ineffective during the war. So, he always is compared unfavorably to Saint Lincoln. Most historians will credit McClellan with being the organizational and logistical genius behind the building of the Army of the Potomac from virtual scratch into a modern force of several hundred thousand, but say that he was too afraid to use it out of either timidity or over fondness of his troops.
Still had Davis not removed Johnston as commander of the Army of Tennessee and appointed the maimed , drug addled, and suicidally aggressive John Bell Hood in his stead, McClellan likely wins the presidency in 1864 and negotiates a peace.
Posted by: CullenBaker | Apr 15 2025 19:37 utc | 66
Re: WWI
The collapse of the Hapsburg Military was sparked by their defeats on the Saloniki Front.
One might want to watch the epic film King Petar the First to familiarize oneself with the complete history (trailer linked)
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=guQzHCPkqJs&pp=ygUaa2luZyBwZXRlciB0aGUgZmlyc3QgbW92aWU%3D
Tamo Daleko
Posted by: Exile | Apr 15 2025 19:40 utc | 67
Boneless:
Thank you but I've heard that before and don't give it any importance.
First:
They would not actually know the origins of either or both drones, which came first, whether there was some cooperation or anything else: it is all speculation, perhaps very ...earnest... speculation but still speculation.
Second:
If Russia was receiving large amounts of shipments of various weaponry it would be relatively easy to identify and trace including at the point of manufacture and "we all know who" would be shouting it from every rooftop and sharing all kinds of things that we currently don't see any hint of.
(I still wish it was true :D It would be a good thing for Russia, Iran, and North Korea (and maybe China too?)).
So I see it all as not much different to the mutterings about North Korean and/or Chinese soldiers ...why don't they mention the European volunteers serving Russia? Ah, of course not :P
Anyway thank you (and everyone else too in general): just because I don't agree doesn't mean I'm not appreciative ("triple negative"... so to be clear I am saying I do appreciate it) and I recognize the good intent :)
This of course also includes Berthold. It sometimes strikes me how easy it is to end up sounding hostile when trying to keep things short, it is not intended that way :S
Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Apr 15 2025 19:40 utc | 68
May I propose a new medical diagnosis? Attrition Denial Syndrome (ADS); there seems to be a case study posting in this very thread...
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Apr 15 2025 19:45 utc | 69
Posted by: KOB | Apr 15 2025 19:25 utc | 65
yes yes yes. Everything is fake and ghey. viruses arent real, and nuclear weapons dont exist.
this is a war of depopulation and extinction running way slower than nany other wars of the past, and not using nuclear weapons because.. oh, yeah, I forgot, nukes are t real, (except the ones used at fukushima and Beirut, those definitely were), so they have to depopulate the white race by facing off aryans vs mongloids...
wait, where was I again? Oh, yes, I am the only one who knows the real truth, and the real truth is everything is fake and ghey.
Posted by: UWDude | Apr 15 2025 19:46 utc | 70
To oldhippie ( Apr 15 2025 19:22 utc | 64 ):
Following my other comments I have to ask; where has this been well reported?
I am sorry for any ignorance on my part but I am unaware of it and hope you can help with one or several believable sources.
It may well be true (I want it to be true) but I don't want to simply believe it on account of wanting it to be true.
Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Apr 15 2025 19:47 utc | 71
Posted by: Mark2 | Apr 15 2025 16:12 utc | 13
Terrible spelling!
Posted by: Ray | Apr 15 2025 19:49 utc | 72
Sure ….the DPRK (with a population of 10 million) is out producing the RF (with a population of 145 million) in artillary rounds.
Completely believable
Posted by: Exile | Apr 15 2025 19:56 utc | 73
For those living in fantasy of Russia using NK ammo in any significant amount:
In 1945, after Nazi Germany was done, Soviet Union packed all men from armored divisions without tanks on trains and sent them to Far East in preparation of offensives against Japan in Manchuria.
New tanks awaited them there.
It was easier to build new ones and send them straight away there than to move all the heavy stuff across whole Asia.
Think about it. WTF would Russia move stuff all the way from NK when their factories are 10 times closer?
Posted by: Abe | Apr 15 2025 20:07 utc | 74
SRB @ 71
When I read it twenty times I figure I don't need a bookmark
North Korea has had a wholly static front line against the South and the US for 70 years. The conflict has long been conceived as an artillery duel. They have had time to prepare for this. It is not hard to understand.
Posted by: oldhippie | Apr 15 2025 20:17 utc | 75
Posted by: Bertold | Apr 15 2025 15:56 utc | 4
'Which begs the question...
What is the Russian production being hoarded for then?
After all, this industry continues to operate and produce, so what is Russia preparing for with millions and millions of shells...etc.?
For the lunatics from Brussels?' -
Perceptive question. Let us just say that Russia stands well prepared for any eventuality. The Russians now must assume that there is a plot underway to unleash a full invasion, as crazy as that must seem.
As Andrei Martynov has indicated, NATO does not want Russia to move from SMO to full scale war. If that happens Russia can level the Ukraine n a matter of days and destroy European cities (and US cities for that matter) with devastating effectiveness.
Posted by: Áobh Ó'Sheachnasaigh | Apr 15 2025 20:19 utc | 76
@ Chuba 26
""the presence of a military parade does technically make it a military target but I would not order a strike in the middle of a town with civilians present."
This was NOT a parade, but a working meeting of NATO and Ukie military leaders to plan further military operations. The medals ceremony was a side show. The Russian Ministry of Defense has consistently been warning civilians to stay from any concentration of military personnel.
Know this: The Ukie military has ALWAYS planted its equipment in civilian areas, using them as human shields. I saw photos from long before the SMO started, showing Ukie tanks hiding among apartment buildings, with official OSCE SUV's parked alongside. Despite protests from the Kremlin, the OSCE never protested the UAF"s hiding behind civilians. I think Russia finally quite the OSCE, but4 those photos remain on the web and in memory.
Save your tears for Gaza and all of Occupied Palestine, and for Lebanon and Yemen.
Posted by: JessDTruth | Apr 15 2025 20:19 utc | 77
@ Brennan and UW - Naming a US Army installation in the deep south after Union General McClellan was just the par for the course by the federal government. Keep sticking a finger in the eye of Johnny Reb. The namesake need not be a hero, any Yankee would do.
Posted by: Adriatic Hillbilly | Apr 15 2025 20:21 utc | 78
I can see why Russia would use lots of nk arms. Nk needs oil and gas
. What else can it trade for this.
Nothing strange just a sensible deal win win
Posted by: Watcher | Apr 15 2025 20:27 utc | 79
Orban Balazh, political adviser to Hungarian Prime Minister, on how much it will cost for Ukraine to join the EU:
According to calculations by the Hungarian Institute of Foreign Affairs, Ukraine's integration into the European Union will cost a total of 2.5 trillion euros, which is more than 12 times the EU budget for 2025. According to the World Bank (at a conservative estimate), Ukraine's reconstruction alone would cost 500 billion dollars.
While Ukrainians have already estimated this amount at 1 trillion dollars. An operation in Ukraine would cost $100 billion a year, given that the Americans no longer want to be involved, and under current EU plans, the allies must spend 0.25 percent of their GDP on strengthening Ukraine's defense - that would mean 50 billion euros a year.
@Slavyangrad
seems to be DT seriously thinking ceasing funding Nato and UN and others I read somewhere today.But would have to go through Congresss
Posted by: Jo | Apr 15 2025 20:36 utc | 80
@ Jane | Apr 15 2025 15:32 utc | 1
we are in a class war and the elites are winning...
Posted by: james | Apr 15 2025 16:04 utc | 9
------------------------------------------------
All the elites have to lose is their position. That makes them keep up the lies about Ukraine and Russian aggression towards all of Europe. The memories of the Soviet 'threat' are still not gone, so they will keep up this propaganda war.
There are cracks beginning to appear. CBS, by inviting Zelensky on 60 Minutes, is busy undermining Trump's feeble efforts. Trump is busy dismantling himself with the trade wars and his minions tending to Slav country still have no clue. JD Vance referring to the Chinese as peasants makes me wonder of the frat boys have taken over the White House. Which makes me think of Tucker Carlson, who, in spite of being a frat boy as Jane has so eloquently pointed out a while ago, does seem to right some wrongs.
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Apr 15 2025 20:40 utc | 81
Russia should take everything east of the Dniper river. That will provide a natural barrier.
However the main focus should remain attrition of Ukrainian troops and Denazification.
Posted by: Jason | Apr 15 2025 20:41 utc | 82
until Russia takes the land, particularly the Black Sea coast to Transnistria, the war will continue.. . .
Posted by: S Brennan | Apr 15 2025 16:00 utc | 7
==================
I agree.
Russia's security requirements include controlling the land mass to create an effective buffer. What is the point of killing the poor conscript sods but leaving top echelons in place to continue fighting to preserve a disloyal, ungrateful, greedy, stupid nation with borders called Ukraine?
A nation for a Nazi diaspora to continue to use to harry and threaten Russia and send Canadian fifth columnists and invite in EU "peacekeepers" to create mischief.
Posted by: Jane | Apr 15 2025 20:55 utc | 83
Come on Russia , stop fucking around .Finish these Nazis in Ukraine and their backers
Posted by: Cuffy | Apr 15 2025 21:03 utc | 84
This war is measured in more than square kilometers per day. Take the state United States, NATO, EU are in. How trade is moving away from dollar and turning towards Asia. The world has changed a lot in since 2022, and not in favor of the instigators of this war.
Posted by: Passerby | Apr 15 2025 21:16 utc | 85
Come on Russia , stop fucking around .Finish these Nazis in Ukraine and their backersPosted by: Cuffy | Apr 15 2025 21:03 utc | 84
There’s no rush, no hurry, no timetable. Russia will do what it needs to do in accordance with its priorities and needs; this is what is grinding Western gears so much. Without true insight into the operational planning of the Russian General Staff none of us really know. The Sumy attack suited Russia at this time, from where do we get the right to gainsay them?
Unless, of course, we regard ourselves as somehow exceptional?
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Apr 15 2025 21:18 utc | 86
This war is measured in more than square kilometers per day. Take the state United States, NATO, EU are in. How trade is moving away from dollar and turning towards Asia. The world has changed a lot in since 2022, and not in favor of the instigators of this war.Posted by: Passerby | Apr 15 2025 21:16 utc | 85
Exactly this, for a start the attritional effect on the Ukrainian economy has left it as a brain-dead, “nil-by-mouth” casualty, wholly relying on direct intravenous infusions of Western funding, with copious leakage from the wounds, boils and pustules of corruption oozing all over its body.
Then there is the social attrition; in what kind of well-functioning and stable society does a domestic marital argument get resolved by the husband blowing up his wife with a grenade, as happened recently in Ukraine [sidebar from Mrs R-L, who told me not to get any ideas!!!].
And of course we have no attrition of the undying popularity of the press-gang commissioners, who never have their homes, cars and offices set on fire...
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Apr 15 2025 21:43 utc | 87
However much I would love both Iranian drones and North Korean artillery and shells it (so far) looks like very dubious rumors :/
@ Sunny Runny Burger | Apr 15 2025 18:08 utc | 48
I can't speak to the Iranian contribution but, when it comes to North Korea, a few things should be noted:
North Koreans, are the same race as South Koreans who are considered to be the among the most technologically advanced nations in the world.
North Korea, albeit with some assistance from a certain Pakistani scientist, have created an indigenous nuclear weapons program that leapfrogged 'normal' steps and went directly to miniature warheads that could be fitted to their existing ICBMs. As a side note: this is the reason that their underground tests were originally labelled 'fake' because they were much smaller than those of other nuclear nations. The IAEA and other agencies have subsequently acknowledged this.
The indigenous NK ballistic missile program (based on improving Egyptian Scud 2 variants) is acknowledged to have been a remarkable success and is the subject of a number of case studies.
A minor matter but relevant to their technological prowess is their counterfeit US $100 bill, virtually undetectable and well reported by US Treasury officials.
Considering all these achievements, however concerning, I expect improving the range of MLRS systems would be a trivial challenge to NK especially, if previously, the Soviets (subsequently Russians) never saw the need or got around to doing it themselves.
Posted by: Raumati | Apr 15 2025 21:47 utc | 88
First, to Abe: shipping is cheap. How else can they grow and process cucumbers into relish in India, and ship it to Canada, and sell it for $1.49/jar retail? It's less than 500 km by sea from Hamhung NK to Vladivostok, and then it gets loaded on a train. Not an impossible idea at all.
Second, the US Treasury market is no longer dominated by foreign holders, but by US hedge funds. I tried to explain the basis trade here a few days ago, but perhaps neglected to emphasize the how highly leveraged and margined the hedge funds are.
Typically, a futures investor need only put 5% of the total cost of his position. So to control $1 billion in Treasury futures, one only need put up $50 million - an impossible sum for you and me, chump change for these Masters of The Universe TM. And as long as treasuries stay fairly stable, you're fine.
And, if you use your stocks as collateral to buy these futures, you can use all your uncashed in gains in the Mag7 to leverage even more money in the bond market. Which is what these firms did.
Only when the steam came out of the stock market, they were now short on collateral for their margin accounts. So they had to start selling stocks, and closing out bond positions, all of which combined to worsen the declines A note I saw yesterday estimated that the big six hedge funds, like Citadel, controlled close to $2 trillion in US treasuries. So unwinding those positions definitely had an impact on the market.
And for too scents: Liquidity isn't important, until it is. There are thousands of home owners in downtown Toronto whose homes are worth $1.5 million or more, according to real estate experts. Most would love to sell and get out at the "estimated" price their homes are worth today. Two or three years ago, that wasn't a problem; houses sold within 30 days. Today, they sit on the market for months. My GF wants to sell, tap her equity, and move to a smaller town. No chance she can do that today. So while her net worth is six figures, her liquidity is almost zero.
Posted by: KevinB | Apr 15 2025 21:48 utc | 89
Posted by: S Brennan | Apr 15 2025 18:39 utc | 58 Ft. Bragg and Ft. Hood showed DoD touted them as heroes, too, according to your lack of sense.
You can write the phrase straw man fallacy...but the fact remains what I wrote about McClellan was in support of the thesis that a purely attritional strategy simply doesn't work. At one point, you made that claim yourself, even if you quickly decided to undercut it by citing McClellan as a great failure for not being aggressive enough, meaning in this exchange, not attritional enough! McClellan's Peninsular campaign came close to defeating the Confederacy by holding territory near the Confederate capital, thought for good reason to be a decisive political Schwerpunkt (look it up.) And he was condemned for tactical withdrawals that won relative attrition for the Union. Slamming McClellan for not pursuing casualties is you running the football over your own goal.
A later commenter upholds Joseph Johnston's strategy of sacrificing territory (especially mountainous terrain with limited opportunities for maneuver) to preserve his own forces. But the result was that Sherman took Atlanta in time to provide a major morale boost to recover from the political attrition to the Union's public will, seemingly shattered by the horrific casualties of Grant's Overland Campaign. Again, the Confederates lost more relative to their capacity than the Federals...but they were nowhere near as close to giving up as the North appeared to be after Grant's drive seemed to stall in the siege of Petersburg. Again, the politics matter. [I cannot assume that Johnston would have won or even stalled Sherman outside Atlanta. Maybe? Johnston did lose at Fair Oaks.]
Posted by: steven t johnson | Apr 15 2025 22:05 utc | 90
The indigenous NK ballistic missile program is acknowledged to have been a remarkable success
Posted by: Raumati | Apr 15 2025 21:47 utc | 88
From 2017: North Korea’s Missile Success Is Linked to Ukrainian Plant, Investigators Say (nytimes)
"Yuzhmash".
Posted by: Passerby | Apr 15 2025 22:07 utc | 91
Posted by: Áobh Ó'Sheachnasaigh | Apr 15 2025 20:19 utc | 76
"here is a plot underway." Hence, Trumps push for a Europe-wide commitment of 5% of GDP for defence spending.
Posted by: horseguards | Apr 15 2025 22:16 utc | 92
"This is an attrition war. The capturing of land is not the measure of success. The destruction of the enemy's material and personnel resources is what matters."
Correct.
This must be the focus. Not grabbing land.
However when the attrition strategy is working it releases land as Ukraine is unable to hold on to land. That is when land should be taken. Horse before the cart.
Taking Odessa and linking up with Transnistria should be the goal but that can't happen without expanding territory in east Ukraine. Flank attacks even by a depleted Ukrainian military can cause large casualties. Taking over land east of the Dniper river after a process of attrition against Ukraine is the way to go for now.
Posted by: Jason | Apr 15 2025 22:24 utc | 93
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Apr 15 2025 21:43 utc | 87
I like your metaphors.
So, how many countries are backing Ukraine? Yet the whole collective of this rabble have failed to "attrit" (is that a word?) Russia?
Posted by: horseguards | Apr 15 2025 22:29 utc | 94
Posted by: Raumati | Apr 15 2025 21:47 utc | 88
Good post.
Posted by: horseguards | Apr 15 2025 22:31 utc | 95
@ Acco Hengst | Apr 15 2025 20:40 utc | 81
your first paragraph - i think you are right about that...
2nd para - tucker carlson seems like a mixed bag, but mostly i like him.. bare in mind, i have limited knowledge of him and only watched a few of his videos... that was a kind of ignoramus comment from vance showing his hillbilly background, lol..
Posted by: james | Apr 15 2025 22:36 utc | 96
Mention of Citadel.
Saw the on the interwebs during the bond brou-ha-ha.
When it starts to unravel… it’ll be quick
§| Citadel has derivatives exposure of $944 billion
Citadel Securities Swap Dealer LLC
Notes to Statement of Financial Condition pg9
Posted by: Melaleuca | Apr 15 2025 22:45 utc | 97
I grasp why RF wants/needs/ emotes for Odessa.
But why do they need a land bridge to Transnistria?
There’s some Russians living there?
There’s Russians living in the chihuahuas, and being badly abused.
I’m not aware of a repatriation program, or any notion that Russia wants a land bridge to thei borders.
It has Belarus, but the border is tightly sealed by the chihuahuas and now Finland.
Why the angst over Transnistria?
Posted by: Melaleuca | Apr 15 2025 22:51 utc | 98
Posted by: KevinB | Apr 15 2025 21:48 utc | 89
LTCM - Long Term Capital Management.
Posted by: horseguards | Apr 15 2025 22:54 utc | 99
From 2017: North Korea’s Missile Success Is Linked to Ukrainian Plant, Investigators Say (nytimes)
"Yuzhmash".
Posted by: Passerby | Apr 15 2025 22:07 utc | 91
I wonder if they got paid in $100 bills?
Posted by: Raumati | Apr 15 2025 22:55 utc | 100
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