Trump To Eliminate Capital Gains
unusual_whales @unusual_whales - 9:37 UTC · Apr 7, 2025Trump: We're on track to fully eliminate capital gains tax in 2025
I see two ways to do that. Congress could make a law that would eliminate capital gain taxes. It will also have to find money to replace the new hole in federal income. Alternatives are to raise other taxes, to borrow more or to cut defense spending and/or social social security.
There is luckily a different way to eliminate capital gain taxes. Just make sure that no capital gain is made.
bigger
Looks like Trump is trying his best to achieve that:
But there are also other possibilities. In terms of short-term, high intensity crises these are the ones to look out for. I am NOT saying these are likely. But they are there and here are some of the signs to look out for:Rather than investors piling into Treasuries driving the price up, instead, we could see investors selling Treasuries en masse. There are two possible scenarios, one is more fin-fi than the other.
One very real scenario, which played out in March 2020 (Shutdown), is that investors around the world are desperate to get hold of liquid dollars.
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At this point we would expect to see the Fed step in, not just to lower interest rates, as is now commonly expected, but do more drastic interventions.
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But let us indulge the fin-fi impulse for a moment. What if providing liquidity does not cool the panic? What if investors, both American and foreign decide, that they no longer wish to hitch their wagon to the empire of the mad king? What if they decide that the US is indeed exceptional, but that it is exceptional in rather nasty ways? [...] Well in that case, holding billions in dollars newly created by the Fed does not give you the security you want.So you sell the dollars. You just want out of the mad house.
This, Ladies and Gentleman, would be the truly big disaster. It would be a sell out not just of US stocks. Not just of US fixed income. But of dollar assets tout court. This would be the long heralded crisis of the dollar.
The chance for the last to happen is still low. But there is a nonzero chance that it could happen.
It would eliminate capital gain taxes - by pushing gains to zero.
Posted by b on April 7, 2025 at 16:59 UTC | Permalink
next page »lol... interesting angle to consider.. thanks b..
alex krainer shared a video from a guy in the uk that i thought was worthwhile watching..
Economic Collapse: Alasdair Macleod on Credit Bubbles, Tariffs, and Gold
Posted by: james | Apr 7 2025 17:09 utc | 2
Well tax on capital gains (rent) is fair enough.
But the "gains" should be adjusted w/re inflation.
Posted by: jared | Apr 7 2025 17:10 utc | 3
I think the possibility that China might decide to incur the 500% Trump tariff and keep buying russian oil.. while China continues to promote digital coinage for BRICS plus.. increases the possibility that investors will sell their treasury holdings en masse..
Posted by: snake | Apr 7 2025 17:15 utc | 4
It would be a sell out not just of US stocks. Not just of US fixed income.
Posted by b on April 7, 2025 at 16:59 UTC | Permalink
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Treasuries selling off while at the same time US Dollar FX falls is confirmation that the bloom is off the rose.
10-Year Treasury 4.125 +0.14 +3.51%
Posted by: too scents | Apr 7 2025 17:17 utc | 6
It seems as if Trump is trying to maximize paid to globalists - for whatever reason.
And that they are wanting to return the sentiment.
Posted by: jared | Apr 7 2025 17:17 utc | 7
Trump is following a think tank (Heritage Foundation) plan called "Project 2025."
h/t Brian Bereletic for pointing this out.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 7 2025 17:22 utc | 8
According to Tom Luongo, the point of the tariffs has to do with bond markets, interest rates, bringing dollars back to the USA.
Per him, tariffs in this case are being used to squeeze "arbitrage" out of the system, where costs of the same things differ in different markets, and this creates rent-seeking opportunities and wasted money.
Per him the enemy is Europe and "Davos." Trump is trying to eliminate the influence of Europe and European players (including 400 years of European banking powers and globalists) on the US economy. He says it is a war about who is going to control the US financial system.
That is how I understand what he says here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZV6JCe57NsA
Posted by: Jane | Apr 7 2025 17:28 utc | 10
Posted by: ZT | Apr 7 2025 17:26 utc | 9
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Gold is down 2.5% today and 5% on the week. The lack of liquidity in the market is forcing investors to give up their positions.
Posted by: a stone | Apr 7 2025 17:31 utc | 11
Its pretty simple as far as manufacturing goes. Processes can be automated if enough investment pours in. This investment will however seek a stable ground, meaning the next president should not cut tariffs.
It is better destination for all that pension fund money to invest in manufacturing automation domestically then participate in global capital markets.
Posted by: alek_a | Apr 7 2025 17:39 utc | 12
The lack of liquidity in the market is forcing investors to give up their positions.
Posted by: a stone | Apr 7 2025 17:31 utc | 11
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Things to keep an eye on:
. https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/desk-operations/reverse-repo
. https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/international/exchange-stabilization-fund/esf-reports
The ESF can be used to purchase or sell foreign currencies, to hold U.S. foreign exchange and Special Drawing Rights (SDR) assets, and to provide financing to foreign governments. All operations of the ESF require the explicit authorization of the Secretary of the Treasury ("the Secretary").The Secretary is responsible for the formulation and implementation of U.S. international monetary and financial policy, including exchange market intervention policy. The ESF helps the Secretary to carry out these responsibilities. By law, the Secretary has considerable discretion in the use of ESF resources.
The legal basis of the ESF is the Gold Reserve Act of 1934. As amended in the late 1970s, the Act provides in part that "the Department of the Treasury has a stabilization fund …Consistent with the obligations of the Government in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on orderly exchange arrangements and an orderly system of exchange rates, the Secretary …, with the approval of the President, may deal in gold, foreign exchange, and other instruments of credit and securities.
https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/international/exchange-stabilization-fund
The ESF has rather loose reporting requirements.
Posted by: too scents | Apr 7 2025 17:42 utc | 13
The problem is that the US has to refinance $9T of debt, so crashing the stock market was needed to cause people to move money to US Government bonds, thus deliberately reducing bond rates. Treasury Secretary Bessent admitted to this and it's actually working.
Trump's supporters mostly don't benefit from high stock prices, so this didn't politically hurt Trump.
Posted by: Contrarian_Ed | Apr 7 2025 17:43 utc | 14
eliminating capital gains would in theory drive up investment in US industrial production as a way to bi-pass the tariffs.
Basically, if you sell to American you must manufacture in America (say 80% of all manufacturing must occur in the US for goods to not be subject to US tariffs. So, I as a foreign corporation, would setup a new US-based sub-company and buy/build a new factory in the US and ship partially completed goods to the US where the manufacturing would be completed and I would sell to the US, the sales would drive up my share price, normally I would transfer the profits to the head company outside of the US, but with capital gains eliminated I would have an incentive to reinvest as much of the money from the US sub-company back into itself so I can goose the share price as much as possible (maximizing shareowner return).
The problem with this is two-fold, 1, something like 60-70% of all American have no investment in the stockmarket, so they will not benefit from this directly (beyond working for companies that might benefit from this). 2. the US is effectively pillaging friendly countries by doing this (this is exactly what colonialism did), any country that allows it's companies to build in the US will quickly find that their US sub-companies will starting outperforming their parent companies and eventually they will become larger than the parent company and force them to move to the US or break off and become competitors to their parent companies. Eventually, the vassals countries will be forced to block their companies from trading with the US at all, although by that time the vassal states will have suffered massive, irreparable economy damage (30 years later these economies will still be crippled). this will take a while to become apparent, maybe 3-4 years but we're looking at yet another lost decade for Europe.
Posted by: Kadath | Apr 7 2025 17:44 utc | 15
It is possible they will introduce a capital loss tax.
I supose that would be a form of compensation.
Posted by: Ornot | Apr 7 2025 17:44 utc | 16
Posted by: a stone | Apr 7 2025 17:31 utc | 11
>>>
Few countries are holding 'real' physical gold, most countries are trading paper. Ask Goldman about it.
Posted by: pepe | Apr 7 2025 17:46 utc | 17
Firstly is Capital Gains Tax a fair or unfair tax? - Secondly it would appear that it will be mainly the wealthy that will benefit from its removal - is this another nod from Trump to his wealthy friends and backers - that he's here to make sure they benefit from his tenure in office - or will the removal of Capital Gains Tax help those less fortunate - not poor, but not rich either.
Knowing Trump - a capitalist Neocon - I'd say removing Capital Gains Tax - aids him and his wealthy buddies - and anyone else who benefits (the not so rich) is just a by-product of is decision to further help the really wealthy.
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Apr 7 2025 17:47 utc | 18
crashing the stock market was needed to cause people to move money to US Government bonds
Posted by: Contrarian_Ed | Apr 7 2025 17:43 utc | 14
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Maybe look at the tape?
10-Year Treasury 4.182 +0.197 +4.94%
Treasurys are selling off.
With a ~5% move you could say they are crashing.
Posted by: too scents | Apr 7 2025 17:52 utc | 19
Report:
Belarus has stopped the illegal import of the largest shipment of explosives in Belarus' history from Poland: 580 kg of a particularly powerful foreign-made explosive (presumably from the USA).
It was planned to be transported further to Russia.
https://t.me/belarusian_silovik/52132
Pictures
Forwarded by
Belarusian security official🇧🇾
The press service of the Belarusian president @pul_1 reports that Vladimir Putin called Alexander Lukashenko and thanked him for the detention of the largest shipment of particularly dangerous cargo – explosives.
I would like to remind you that they wanted to transport it further to Russia. For those who haven't read it, here are the details. The Russian president asked for his thanks and encouragement to those involved in uncovering the incident. The heads of state also discussed upcoming meetings and military exercises in Belarus. @belarusian_silovik
.
The West is planning endless terror!
This is another standard by which Trump must be measured, because this quantity was NEVER transported across Poland without the knowledge of the CIA/MI6, etc., and was likely brought into the country on US transport planes.
Posted by: berthold | Apr 7 2025 18:00 utc | 21
Trump Will Claim Victory in the Next Couple of Weeks and then Reverse the Policies He Introduced
"Ramesh Damani believes Donald Trump will reverse his policies and declare victory to avoid admitting failure. He argues Trump's actions are damaging global order and US economic power, but the world is rapidly forming new alliances and moving on. Damani asserts America will eventually realize its overreach and attempt to restore normalcy."
Trumpty Dumpty had a great fall. All the king's horse and all the king's men couldn't put Trumpy together again.
Posted by: John Gilberts | Apr 7 2025 18:01 utc | 22
Posted by: alek_a | Apr 7 2025 17:39 utc | 12
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Who makes the robots?
I listened to Lutnick (Sec Commerce) saying that high school graduate Americans would become robotic mechanics.
Typically of someone who has never produced anything, as Musk called out Navarro last week.
Only in America is watching TV synonymous with making TVs.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 7 2025 18:05 utc | 23
Posted by: E | Apr 7 2025 17:57 utc | 20
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Why don't you link his account when you say that?
I'm tech savvy but some at the bar are not.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 7 2025 18:07 utc | 24
When investors stop being concerned about a return on their capital and start being concerned about return of their capital, what happens next?
Hark, is that the sound of the massed battalions of a liquidity crisis marching towards us?
The effectiveness of the Ctrl+P vaccine will be severely tested...
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Apr 7 2025 18:07 utc | 25
Nonresident aliens shareholders are already exempt from capital gains tax except for ownership in US real estate (FIRPTA). They are also exempt from gains from fixed income sales. So this would not be an inbound play related to tarrifs. This would be just a pure Wall Street giveaway for US investors. The timing of this announcement is likely to calm the markets.
Posted by: Deniz | Apr 7 2025 18:09 utc | 26
25 Jeremy, yep, it is quite a large stew of counterparty risk by now…
Posted by: E | Apr 7 2025 18:11 utc | 27
B opines "It will also have to find money to replace the new hole in federal income. Alternatives are to raise other taxes, to borrow more or to cut defense spending and/or social social security."
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Weak sauce, bro. The number one target for cuts is governmental employment at the federal, state and local levels.
The plan is to return the USA back to the types of spare government and unregulated economy that existed before 1913.
If anyone would actually listen, Trump has repeatedly noted the period of greatest USA growth and freedom was the post civil war to pre WW1 era.
For fvcks sake, he constantly mentions McKinley, who is the literal poster boy of that period, which is why he made a point about renaming Denali.
I find it highly ironic that a site that identifies as a bastion of truth would so obviously omit the very answer to the question of how will the budgets be reformed.
It's also an important lesson on how not to live ones life. There's a reason the pervasive negativity forms a vicious feedback loop that effects both personal finance and mental state.
Posted by: Markw | Apr 7 2025 18:13 utc | 28
Trump has strolled into a no-win situation for him.
I think they never imagined this would happen with tariffs.
Now he cannot back down, or he loses credibility with everyone, the elites, the American people, and every government globally.
China and Russia could make plans to "reindustrialize" and see them through (which they both did over the last 20 years, albeit from a cleaner slate), but American culture and American political culture were never going to give Trump time to do anything carefully and methodically.
I believe that Trump will have to wag the dog.
He is out of options.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 7 2025 18:13 utc | 29
The plan is to return the USA back to the types of spare government and unregulated economy that existed before 1913.
Posted by: Markw | Apr 7 2025 18:13 utc | 28
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Men plan, God laughs.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 7 2025 18:15 utc | 30
Posted by: Markw | Apr 7 2025 18:13 utc | 28
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In 1890 life expectancy for newborn boys in the US was 44 years.
Posted by: a stone | Apr 7 2025 18:18 utc | 32
LoveDonbass | Apr 7 2025 17:22 utc | 8
You just figured that out? OK, will you stop complaining and figure out a way to front run a dunk shot future forecast?
PS Also please don't mistake Trump is simply following the Heritage foundation. Rather, the reverse is true.
He's been talking about what he's now doing for 30 odd years. Back during when he was blocked during term 1.0, he often spoke about his intentions.
Posted by: Markw | Apr 7 2025 18:19 utc | 33
LD tried the link format and failed… just use your favourite (or despised) search engine
Posted by: E | Apr 7 2025 18:19 utc | 34
Should the dollar’s preeminence falter (with ca 85% certainty), the idea of funding a wealth fund or industrial revival becomes problematic, foreign investment wanes, and US of A influence diminishes.
Against the multipolar vision of BRIICS+, tariffs are a vital bid to preserve economic power; losing dollar hegemony would render this approach unviable.
Trump's attempt to replace income taxes with tariffs (18th and 19th century modus operandi) will backfire.
This is the Titanic moment in the making hitting the iceberg in 2-3 weeks times from now.
Posted by: pepe | Apr 7 2025 18:20 utc | 35
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 7 2025 18:05 utc | 23
Hightech equipment manufacturers make the robots. Quite a few are left in the US and already making much money.
The price of parts and labour for the automation equipment - which are proly imported - is not a very significant part of its endvalue. System design and software is.
These tariffs will I think hit hard the lowend consumer market, none of which we need in these quantities. The stock market falls because the tariffs are sucking away the arbitrage profits of such companies. US and foreign companies that supply in those discretionary spending markets (home improvement, clothes, accessories etc) will be most hit.
The end of the “Consumer Society Palaces” is what will happen according to me. “Regionalisation” is the new buzzword for direct to consumer businesses, meaning each country gets its own products that are as much as possible locally sourced.
The hightech sector has anticipated this change for a while. Its profits are all hanging on AI and automation at the moment. Everyone and their mother is working on some aspect of it. Other markets for hightech have been stagnant (transport, medical). Considering the whole economy is being driven by it: if there was no AI and related segments, we would be in a Great Depression type of situation. And started because of the same reasons as then: overproduction and overconsumption on credit 2000-2020. This time one should also add overemployment in the government sector, the worst of which Trump and Elon are cutting away.
People with fake degrees are the ones that should be afraid for their future.
Look at Russia: that is the end goal of Trumponomics.
Posted by: alek_a | Apr 7 2025 18:27 utc | 36
Posted by: Markw | Apr 7 2025 18:19 utc | 33
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I didn't "just" figure that out. I posted it for the benefit of others.
I don't forecast the future. That's a fool's errand and too close to gambling (which is a sin in my religion) for my comfort.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 7 2025 18:27 utc | 37
a collegue of mine had one crazy theory about this tariff madness that was so outlandish and out there, that i am going to share it.
he basically said that what the americans are now doing is to create the conditions on china to sell all their us holdings etc, and to "freeze" chinese assets in the usa and maybe europe, as they have set the precedent with russias assets.
then when the chinese dont hold any dollars anymore and are for all intends and purposes out of the us market, the us would pressure other nations to keep the dollar going so that the brics money wont come to fruition, and thus basically decouple the world economy from china.
we laughed, but we also had this nagging feeling in the back of our heads that this is something that the us would try. i dont know, i have limited knowledge of how world economics and all that works, so i wont comment.
this was his theory, and he was certain that thats trumps plan.
Posted by: Justpassinby | Apr 7 2025 18:29 utc | 38
There are reports China has reduced US treasury holding by $50 billion today (it has perhaps $700-800 billion left). That would explain why bonds are dropping again. Scott Bessent et.co. must not be too happy, as manipulating an environment for crashing stocks was supposed to drive investors into USTs and drop the yield, just in the nick of time for $7 trillion refinancing this year.
Posted by: unimperator | Apr 7 2025 18:34 utc | 39
Bill Ackman is Turning on Trump Because of Tariffs. And He is Not Alone
"Billionaire investor Bill Ackman, who endorsed Trump's 2024 presidential bid, warned Sunday that going ahead with the new tariffs was tantamount to launching an 'economic nuclear war'.
Unless Trump changes tack,'we are heading for a self-induced, economic nuclear winter, and we should start hunkering down,'the CEO of Perishing Square Capital Management warned.
'What CEO and what board of directors will be comfortable making large, long term economic commitments in our country in the middle of an economic nuclear war?' he said, adding that 'the president is losing the confidence of business leaders around the globe..."
Posted by: John Gilberts | Apr 7 2025 18:35 utc | 40
When the US, Canada, UK, France Germany and the rest of NATO only has the mining resources and manufacturing base to produce a combined 1.1 to 1.3 million 152 mm artillery shells a year and Russia is producing over 7 million you have to do something.
Add in the fact that the US has to be able to fight a 2-front war, against Russia and China, which combined could produce at least 15 million artillery shells a year we have to be able to defend ourselves.
Globalization is over. Even Starmer will announce it today. The West has to start producing things again and stop sending all manufacturing to ASIA.
Will the transition be painful over the next 20 years? Yep. But no more painful than the last 40 years were to small towns that lost their small independent famers and manufacturing.
It is what it is.
There are only 2 countries in the world who have the ability to completely support themselves. The US and Russia.
For those talking about replacing the dollar as the world reserve currency you need to consider supply and demand. For every dollar that is taken in by the US Government in Tariffs, or that is made by US companies instead of those in ASIA, that is one less dollar the world has to pay debts denominated in dollars.
The US has to stop the bleeding of industry and turn the ship around and start gaining industry. They have to encourage family, morals, and old stable nuclear family values. In short, we have to do what Russia did in the 1990s. Trump is trying to do it by choice.
If the financialization and globalization trends that have happened in the WEST since DE Gaulle wanted French debts paid in Gold in the 70's that forced the US off of the gold standard do not reverse to make us able to be self-sustainable then we will collapse.
People who need or want things to stay the same will suffer. This is something that has to happen by choice, or like the USSR it will be forced upon us.
Posted by: TundraTide | Apr 7 2025 18:36 utc | 41
Hightech equipment manufacturers make the robots. Quite a few are left in the US and already making much money.
Posted by: alek_a | Apr 7 2025 18:27 utc | 36
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Is that why Teslas are made in Canada?
I haven't worked in North American manufacturing for 15 years, but I find it very dubious that the trend has shifted to significant US production of anything high-tech. America doesn't even make dishwashers or TVs.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 7 2025 18:39 utc | 42
Trump needs to change the subject from: failed proxy war, Putin not buying another Minsk, Bibi genocide, another failed bombing adventure and Turkey stealing Syria for AQ.
S$P still over 5000.
When it hit 2150 worry.
Posted by: paddy | Apr 7 2025 18:41 utc | 43
@39 unimperator
There are a lot of Chinese bots here that want the U.S. consumer a slave to our elite's trade arrangement with China.
My thesis is pain will abound.
U.S. will be crying uncle as white collar sector crashes and burns on par or worse than great depression.
China will have to reorient and bandage the wound from losing U.S. consumer. I think they will be able to weather it through regional trade which will be good for SE Asia (rapproachemont) and as Africa will continue to develop/industrialize.
But please stop the pussyfooting! Grow some balls and throw these shit-eating elites over the side.
Decoupling BTW the U.S. and China is Phase 2 of the Multipolar reorganization. Phase 1 has been Russia doing the heavy lifting by cockblocking western finance.
Posted by: NemesisCalling | Apr 7 2025 18:42 utc | 44
I haven't worked in North American manufacturing for 15 years, but I find it very dubious that the trend has shifted to significant US production of anything high-tech. America doesn't even make dishwashers or TVs.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 7 2025 18:39 utc | 42
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Love your post generally, but everyone has to keep an open mind and be willing to change perceptions.
According to the World Bank, China accounted for about 28.5 percent of global manufacturing output in 2020. This is significantly more than the United States, which accounted for about 17.34 percent who is in 2nd place above Japan in 3rd.
So - we must build something.
Posted by: TundraTide | Apr 7 2025 18:44 utc | 45
Posted by: TundraTide | Apr 7 2025 18:44 utc | 45
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Now subtract military production.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 7 2025 18:47 utc | 46
Will the transition be painful over the next 20 years?
Posted by: TundraTide | Apr 7 2025 18:36 utc | 41
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Don't expect the Asians to sit on their thumbs while the West re-industrializes. They will keep growing their market influence and co-operative ventures.
The USA has not only to re-industrialize, they also have to face their debt overhang. Either individually would be a great challenge. Achieving both goals at the same time is basically impossible.
Posted by: too scents | Apr 7 2025 18:47 utc | 47
Posted by: John Gilberts | Apr 7 2025 18:35 utc | 40
Ackman is a contrarian indicator.
See:
https://x.com/alifarhat79/status/1909088087302451496
Posted by: unimperator | Apr 7 2025 18:48 utc | 48
The Federal government should tax rent seakers out of existence.
If you want to live in a house, that's good. If you want to not create goods and services but instead own houses and live off "rent" you charge to others who need a house to live in, than the rented house should be taxed MORE than what is collected in rent, to encourage the person who does not live in the house but owns the house to sell the house AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. The laws should be tweaked from time to time with the goal of not one person in America pays "rent" to anyone ever again.
There is not anything that will make American quality of life increase as much as solving the rent seeking problem in housing.
Posted by: Hot Carl | Apr 7 2025 18:49 utc | 49
Not sure if it was max keiser who coined the phrase or if he just passed it on:
Can’t taper a ponzi!
PS taking nominations on which ponzi blows first
Posted by: E | Apr 7 2025 18:49 utc | 50
Posted by: NemesisCalling | Apr 7 2025 18:42 utc | 44
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It shouldn't continue to surprise me how little people understand about Russia and China when they give a promise, which they do not do casually.
China and Russia are joined at the hip. If they go down, they will go down together. They have the same vision of a global future, similar views about economics, and diplomacy. There is a reason that almost every week, they are exchanging high-level dignitaries for various talks over the last 2 years.
Any of your analyses that are based on them not being tight is likely completely incorrect.
Just because America has no friends doesn't mean Russia and China operate the same way.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 7 2025 18:51 utc | 51
So - we must build something.
Posted by: TundraTide | Apr 7 2025 18:44 utc | 45
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Assembling fast food is considered to be manufacturing. A Clinton innovation.
Posted by: too scents | Apr 7 2025 18:51 utc | 52
The US has defaulted on its debt twice in its history by massive devaluation of the dollar.
As far as the debt, it is massive, and needs addressed. With that said all debt that is owed to other parts of the government, like US Treasuries held by Medicare, SSA, etc etc can be canceled out. Only debt held by individuals and foreign countries "HAVE" to be addressed.
No CHINA or other ASIAN countries will not just sit around and do nothing. The problem is the US is the largest consumer on the planet. If you take the WEST with UK, Canada, France, Germany, US. etc etc as one block, if they all pull in the same direction and all put up protectionist trade policies, then who exactly is left for ASIAN countries to manufacture and sell things to? Do you honestly think that it would not be painful to CHINA if they only had domestic consumers?
Posted by: TundraTide | Apr 7 2025 18:55 utc | 54
Posted by: unimperator | Apr 7 2025 18:48 utc | 48
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Ackman, deserved or not, moves markets with his statements, which is why it was a big deal when he endorsed Trump.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 7 2025 18:58 utc | 55
@51 Love
I largely agree. I am just impatient, I suppose.
And I wrestle with schadenfreude, as my entire life I have been a laborer with an above average intelligence who felt rejected by my peers for enjoying physical labor and philosophy. The prayers I offer up is to keep me from rejoicing in the pain of others and to remind myself that those behind Empire's walls are about to be fleeced mightily.
The perfect opportunity for a Christian to exhibit charity and provide a shoulder to cry on.
...
Re: China/Russia. I think considering their history, that China chose the U.S. to ally with during the Cold War, it would be a tough hatchet to bury for Russia. But forgiveness is really what the coming century will be about. Charity and forgiveness go hand in hand in a reconciled nation that once, not too long ago, slaughtered its own Christian believers.
Posted by: NemesisCalling | Apr 7 2025 18:58 utc | 56
The only similar drop for an elected president so quickly into his presidency was under George W. Bush in 2001.
We all know what "happened" later that year.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Apr 7 2025 18:59 utc | 57
Posted by: too scents | Apr 7 2025 18:51 utc | 52
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Peanut butter and chocolate remains the greatest American contribution to humanity during its history.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 7 2025 19:00 utc | 58
54 tundra
I’ll take the “political west” as a ponzi to blow nominee (or has it already?!)
Posted by: E | Apr 7 2025 19:00 utc | 59
Yes the end of the efficiency of supply chains will end lots of things and yes that will eliminate capital gains. When efficiency is radically reduced yield is radically reduced. One aspect of yield is financial in nature. Another is the affordability of things needed to live.
The deep state is ending the Republican party in a grand embrace of TDS. The deleterious effects on the economy of ending supply chains will be unimaginable and last for long time and have no doubt Trump will be loved by the neoliberals as the arch nemesis during every minute. Any opposition to any of THEIR insane policies can now be lumped in with nemesis Trump and people can enjoy a good froth of the mouth.
Neither party is for the people and by the people in the least.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=62fOP69whrE
Posted by: LosBanos | Apr 7 2025 19:03 utc | 60
I am not saying that the USA or Trump will be successful. Chances are that this will lead to a deflationary nightmare scenario.
What I am saying is you have 2 choices at this point. With debt parabolic you have to address the issue now. By the end of Trumps term debt will be at or near 50 trillion dollars. AT some point the WEST will be forced to address their problems.
The US is net exporters of food and energy. We need to stop the flow of de-industrialization and actually reverse the trend and build some new manufacturing.
The rest of the WEST in Europe needs to look at what they need.
It is not something that has to be done against CHINA, Europe, or Russia, to harm them, but it has to be done for the US.
Posted by: TundraTide | Apr 7 2025 19:04 utc | 61
"A stock market plunge is a tactic long expected from the City of London and Chatham House and its doppelgänger the Council on Foreign Relations who expressed their opposition to a second Trump presidency."
Money Circus
Exactly!
The problem is the US is the largest consumer on the planet. If you take the WEST with UK, Canada, France, Germany, US. etc etc as one block, if they all pull in the same direction and all put up protectionist trade policies, then who exactly is left for ASIAN countries to manufacture and sell things to? Do you honestly think that it would not be painful to CHINA if they only had domestic consumers?
Posted by: TundraTide | Apr 7 2025 18:55 utc | 54
#################
My friend, I really think you need to consider your post more deeply.
Let me rewrite it.
"The problem is the US is the biggest eater on the planet".
There is this bizarre notion that if America didn't eat and own stuff, the world would stop.
No, trade would reorient, prices would lower, and inventories would eventually clear. Other people around the world want stuff too.
Do you really believe that without the consumption of the West, the Global Majority would no longer seek to prosper? That China's scientific development would stop if Joey Cheeseburger didn't buy another Ford or get a HELOC so he can take his girlfriend on a Caribbean cruise?
Not your fault, it is a common narrative. And I think rooted in the rationalization for colonialism.
Everything the West does is for the benefit of humanity, "that those poor brown idiots need us to have a reason to exist". Hence, it is ok to take their stuff and enslave their societies because the West brings values and enlightenment, regardless of how old and wise the native culture may be.
The music is starting to wind down and there aren't enough chairs for everyone in this game of economic reset.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 7 2025 19:09 utc | 64
"If you want to live in a house, that's good. If you want to not create goods and services but instead own houses and live off "rent" you charge to others who need a house to live in, than the rented house should be taxed MORE than what is collected in rent, to encourage the person who does not live in the house but owns the house to sell the house AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. "
Were already there. Why would anyone want to rent to people who hate you for establishing a fair and mutually beneficial agreement with them? People either own a house or live in cardboard boxes with their children. Whats that you say? You will simply take the houses with force? You dont say.
Posted by: LosBanos | Apr 7 2025 19:10 utc | 65
Wow, another scandal. Goldman Sachs sent fake info about 90 day tariff pause to the media (to get out of something?).
https://x.com/Analyst_G/status/1909261895040708755
Posted by: unimperator | Apr 7 2025 19:10 utc | 66
Posted by: too scents | Apr 7 2025 18:51 utc | 52
##############
"Peanut butter and chocolate remains the greatest American contribution to humanity during its history."
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 7 2025 19:00 utc | 58
Jazz, the light bulb, the personal computer, bourbon, Ernst Hemingway et al , God you are a dullard!
1: Tariffs are paused, says Bloomberg
2: Bloomberg, the news service?
1: No, some guy named Walter Bloomberg
2: What’s his source?
1: Reuters
2: The news service?
1: No, his friend Johnny Reuters
https://x.com/smod4real/status/1909263258353328220
Posted by: unimperator | Apr 7 2025 19:12 utc | 68
Why do some people seem to think consuming is such a special ability? Kinda like the whole ”body positivity” nonsense: ”Fat is beautiful!”
China has already done the work of testing rapid increases in domestic incomes, so they can turn on massive domestic consumption at the drop of a hat. They’re just delaying that until necessary in order to squeeze the last bit of benefit out of being export focused.
Really, why does anyone think it is only fat, dumb Americans who can consume? Unproductive consumption is the easiest thing in the world. You don’t need any special qualities to consume.
Posted by: William Gruff | Apr 7 2025 19:17 utc | 70
So when does the US start raiding washing machines for the chips to power its re-industrialisation???
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Apr 7 2025 19:20 utc | 71
The music is starting to wind down and there aren't enough chairs for everyone in this game of economic reset.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 7 2025 19:09 utc | 64
*********************
Agreed. As far as the rest of the comment. If all of that is true, then the rest of the world should celebrate. They can rejoice in no longer having to provide stuff to the US Consumer because of the Trump Tariffs.
Making generalities is dangerous. Assuming everyone in the US are dumb, lazy, useless eaters and breathers would be a massive miscalculation.
I personally would love it if we did not export chicken, seafood, beef and pork in the quantities that we do to the rest of the planet. Energy as well. My grocery bill would be a heck of a lot smaller.
Posted by: TundraTide | Apr 7 2025 19:24 utc | 72
65 LosBanos… don’t agree with HotCarl’s statism but your response doesn’t even account for basic math and the fact that western countries have arrived at the unpleasant juncture of long-term real estate ponzis at the edge of demographic cliffs… rather than fighting this, it could actually be a first-mover advantage for the first western country that “willingly” jumps (especially if they can attract young immigrant talent through the process)
Posted by: E | Apr 7 2025 19:25 utc | 73
I believe that Trump will have to wag the dog.He is out of options.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 7 2025 18:13 utc | 29
Indeed. That's why all these US bombers, air craft carriers, destroyers etc. have been accumulating recently in Diego Garcia, Jordan, Israel, etc. It could be the final nail in the US coffin.
Posted by: xor | Apr 7 2025 19:27 utc | 74
My grocery bill would be a heck of a lot smaller.
Posted by: TundraTide | Apr 7 2025 19:24 utc | 72
---
Just out of curiosity which would you prefer, a lower grocery bill or better groceries at you current budget?
Posted by: too scents | Apr 7 2025 19:27 utc | 75
Posted by: canuck | Apr 7 2025 19:10 utc | 67
##########
Humorless tryhard. I pity you.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 7 2025 19:27 utc | 76
Reminded of the new $5 million to become American product… such value, much wow…
Posted by: E | Apr 7 2025 19:30 utc | 77
Is that why Teslas are made in Canada?
I haven't worked in North American manufacturing for 15 years, but I find it very dubious that the trend has shifted to significant US production of anything high-tech. America doesn't even make dishwashers or TVs.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 7 2025 18:39 utc | 42
Dishwashers and TVs are those discretionary goods whose supply chain is globalized. We have no idea who made the appliance or TV, all we see is the marketing story. For which we pay many times over a margin to whoever does the marketing. These are the things Trump targets so the supply chain gets regionalized.
Do you know that importers of consumer electronics, meaning TVs and the like, often are instructed by global manufacturers (Samsung etc) to withdraw perfectly good models from the shops so they can sell their new marketing narrative with a “new” product at a higher margin? Those withdrawn goods end up at the recycler. I have seen it with my own eyes a few times. So, how is it profitable for them to destroy product? These type of companies I give no reason to exist in a modern society. Yet they make tons of money.
The facilities of those global corporations resemble modern labour camps with nice facilities but no life there. One of them, in S Korea, effectively runs their own cities. Education, banks, houses, hospitals, childcare, sports, all kinds of services arranged by the employer on campus. Apple and the like do the same in the US.
All of that enabled by huge overproduction by the slighlty smarter and overconsumption by the slightly stupider.
I am perfectly happy to pay more and consume less. If I can buy one thing that lasts me 2-3 years at a price 2x something that lasts me a year or less (e.g clothing), i would do it in a blink. But there is nothing out there that is made to last. Because the sales machine prefers cheap but often bought products as that increases the total available market to them, meaning people buying cheap but many things on weak credit is better for their profits.
All of modern life, except death, is governed by sales and marketing.
Posted by: alek_a | Apr 7 2025 19:31 utc | 78
Just out of curiosity which would you prefer, a lower grocery bill or better groceries at you current budget?
Posted by: too scents | Apr 7 2025 19:27 utc | 75
*************************
I eat zero processed food or drinks. I brew tea to drink. If anything is preserved (like pickles) I do it myself. I make my own sausage, and cure my own meat like hams.
I grew up on a cattle Ranch in the deep south and then became a Nuclear Engineer running power plants.
To be perfectly honest the cost is mainly for the long term storage of food like dried beans, rice, salt etc etc that I do for my neighbors and community in case it is needed. I donate older stock to places like Ashville, N.C. that was hit by the hurricane last year.
SO for me personally, I guess to be honest - both quality for me, and quantity for preps and charity.
Posted by: TundraTide | Apr 7 2025 19:34 utc | 79
@78 alek_a
Agreed. Thx for the post.
I will add that some economists here think things like "full employment" is a public good.
Sure, as long as one spouse gets to practice homemaking. I think one spouse at home is a public good.
I think a company that makes a product without planned obsolescence is a good.
I think savings is a good.
I think high interest rates are a good because it pushes us to pay off our loans quicker.
I think as little government as possible is a good.
That's the problem with the world: everyone wants something different out of life.
Posted by: NemesisCalling | Apr 7 2025 19:38 utc | 80
It seems to me that these moves are less about fixing the US and more about destroying the globalist system -
which then paves the way for the growth of something better.
Posted by: jared | Apr 7 2025 19:38 utc | 81
@ alek_a | Apr 7 2025 19:31 utc | 78
we have a washing machine made in wisconsin... i highly recommend it - huebusch.. no electronics - the straight goods..
Posted by: james | Apr 7 2025 19:39 utc | 82
All of modern life, except death, is governed by sales and marketing.Posted by: alek_a | Apr 7 2025 19:31 utc | 78
‘Life As A Subscription Service’ seems to be the ultimate aim; you want clothes to last a year? Ha, how about they only last a month, if you’re behind on your subs payment you get cold...
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Apr 7 2025 19:39 utc | 83
Making generalities is dangerous. Assuming everyone in the US are dumb, lazy, useless eaters and breathers would be a massive miscalculation.
Posted by: TundraTide | Apr 7 2025 19:24 utc | 72
#################
Not all Americans are dumb, lazy, etc.
Some of them are psychopathic protestants and gender queer degenerates. Some of them are kind and psychologically healthy humanists.
The latter cohort isn't the one with the nuclear codes committing multiple genocides in violation of international law simultaneously.
I am not classifying all Americans as useless eaters. Many choose to be (again the ones in charge for decades), particularly in the capital of "Mordor on the Potomac".
Want a better America? Fix your government. Don't blame China. Don't blame Islam. Don't blame Russia.
Fix your stuff and stop looking to externalize blame.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 7 2025 19:39 utc | 84
The music is starting to wind down and there aren't enough chairs for everyone in this game of economic reset.Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 7 2025 19:09 utc | 64
Exactly, and that is why it's a good time to bring back to mind Exter's pyramid.
Posted by: unimperator | Apr 7 2025 19:41 utc | 85
That's the problem with the world: everyone wants something different out of life.
Posted by: NemesisCalling | Apr 7 2025 19:38 utc | 80
*************************
It seems to me that these moves are less about fixing the US and more about destroying the globalist system -
which then paves the way for the growth of something better.
Posted by: jared | Apr 7 2025 19:38 utc | 81
*************************
I completely agree with both of these statements.
No one can argue that the current globalization / colonialization model that has been used is good for humanity.
We have to get away from the exploitation of other human beings on this planet. Genocide whether done via warfare or indentured slavery is wrong.
Posted by: TundraTide | Apr 7 2025 19:42 utc | 86
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Apr 7 2025 19:39 utc | 83
"You will own nothing and be happy." - Klaus Schwab.
The rentier class's ultimate dream. EaaS: Everything-as-a-Service.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Apr 7 2025 19:44 utc | 87
Posted by: TundraTide | Apr 7 2025 19:34 utc | 79
Admirable but let me ask: how do you find time to process your own food and have a job like that (and maybe family etc)?
Posted by: alek_a | Apr 7 2025 19:46 utc | 88
79 tundra … certainly not the norm for big US cities, food quality, etc… sounds like you are prepared for popping ponzis!
PS there is a reason that agriculture was so contentious for years in multiple WTO rounds… also reminds me of Mr. Orlov and his collapse preparedness comparison from 20 years ago now … USSR (which went through it) vs US (pending??)
Posted by: E | Apr 7 2025 19:47 utc | 89
"The US is net exporters of food and energy. We need to stop the flow of de-industrialization and actually reverse the trend and build some new manufacturing.
The rest of the WEST in Europe needs to look at what they need.
It is not something that has to be done against CHINA, Europe, or Russia, to harm them, but it has to be done for the US."
Food is energy. Every aspect of food production is a consumption of energy. The USA is not willing or able to give up reserve currency status. It seems logical to isolate to force creation of manufacturing. This assumes because forgoing the things we need to live is unthinkable the the resources need to facilitate manufacturing in the USA will be provided as a function of the dollar. The dollars value is solely dependent on trade settlement. If that is eliminated there is no value to create manufacturing facilities or "buy" energy. Each oil extraction is only suitable for one group of products. It is only global trade that places the oi where it needed to refine and the energy products are traded to meet needs. Even valuing a currency based on the goods and services it can purchase will end with the cessation of trade let alone any reserve currency status. What good is any foreign currency if trade has ceased?
Affordable energy is the cornerstone of any decent standard of living. Its continuance is quite uncertain but one thing can not be denied and that is global supply chains of all sorts are needed for its continuance.
The radical reduction in efficiency from elimination of supply chains that will reduce available resources to sustain humanity aside there are numerous practicalities that will destroy the USA from trade cessation. Very few of the things that are needed to tool for manufacturing are manufactured n the USA. To tool up you need foreign manufactured things. Every sensor. Every PLC that is the brain of the line. everything. And when those things fail you need more. None of those things are available if the dollar has no value. None of those things are available if global supply chains are ended.
Emotionally I am very attracted to the idea of self sufficiency. Reality is industrial civilization is the result of connected economy's and global supply chains.
There is no doubt. They are shutting things down. They are ending the things that a large portion of the world needs to live and that certainly includes the USA. My guess is with their large per capita energy consumption ending the USA and Europe is a primary goal. China on the other hand with 12 people in a apartment by cycling to work may be desirable to allow continuance. China will of course have its own set of problems to deal with as industrial civilization ends and they will be substantial.
https://www.fuelstreamservices.com/why-the-u-s-cant-use-the-oil-it-produces/
Posted by: LosBanos | Apr 7 2025 19:47 utc | 90
I make my own sausage, and cure my own meat like hams.
Posted by: TundraTide | Apr 7 2025 19:34 utc | 79
---
Great answer.
Posted by: too scents | Apr 7 2025 19:48 utc | 91
Posted by: NemesisCalling | Apr 7 2025 19:38 utc | 80
Yes I agree. Those points: classical right leaning views. But we have become ostracized lately.
Posted by: alek_a | Apr 7 2025 19:50 utc | 93
Want a better America? Fix your government. Don't blame China. Don't blame Islam. Don't blame Russia.
Fix your stuff and stop looking to externalize blame.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 7 2025 19:39 utc | 84
***********************************
I would argue that the American citizenry who voted for Obama in 2008, and Trump in 2016 were doing exactly that. Voting for change.
Trump in 2024, well color me jaded. I highly doubt him, but hope for the best.
None of us can do much more than try to educate those in our circle, and serve our fellow man, with the hope that others look to our example of good stewardship and change their behavior.
I am not your enemy LoveDonbass. I suspect that the majority of Trump voters in 2024 were voting for change, both in Ukraine and the world.
Like the collapse of the USSR in the 1990's the US has to do some soul searching and hopefully becomes better members of the global community. First however, like Russia, and China after Mao, the US has to focus on its internal problems first.
Nothing would make me and a huge portion of the American populace happier than a return to the isolationist policies of the US prior to Dec 7th, 1941.
Posted by: TundraTide | Apr 7 2025 19:51 utc | 94
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Apr 7 2025 19:39 utc | 83
########
Subscription models are crazy powerful. It's human nature to set up automatic payments such that the consumer doesn't notice marginal decreases in service over time, and the payments get lost in a sea of transactions.
Compulsory subscriptions?
Mark of the Beast, IMO.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 7 2025 19:51 utc | 95
Posted by: unimperator | Apr 7 2025 18:48 utc | 48
##########
"Ackman, deserved or not, moves markets with his statements, which is why it was a big deal when he endorsed Trump."
Posted by: LoveDumbass | Apr 7 2025 18:58 utc | 55
Ackman did not move the needle one bit-it's the hoi polloi and especially the elevated working class Latino and Black vote.
You think these demographics give a fuck about Ackman, let alone know who the fuck he is?
By Zeus, you are out of it.
-B-
I don’t think the chances are that low.
As you rightly point out, the Federal Reserve, via Trump has accelerated the killing of the dollar. Everything to devalue, via lower interest rates, tariffs, eliminating taxes, sanctions, all to “make the economy scream” so that hapless, desperate regular people will allow any reset via tyranny government for monetary relief. As my friend Scott says “to buy an egg to feed their children”.
Physical war, allows them to take out any surviving competitors and suck in their assets as part of the reset.
Like dominating the entire ME and all shipping choke points.
Shock doctrine on steroids. Trump rolling out the austerity while lining the pockets of the wealthy.
Posted by: Trubind1 | Apr 7 2025 19:54 utc | 97
“Nike won’t build factories in the U.S. to make sneakers. That would add more cost than the 40% tariffs,” Peter Schiff wrote on X. “The result will be fewer sneakers sold in the U.S. at much higher prices.”When questioned whether Nike might absorb tariff costs while building domestic factories, Schiff dismissed the idea, suggesting the company would instead redirect products: “They will eventually sell more sneakers to consumers in other countries instead, as they buy what Americans can no longer afford.”
Producers no longer need the US market. China's and the Global South offer better opportunities.
Posted by: Keme | Apr 7 2025 19:56 utc | 98
Selling the panic? Fine, 3 month T-Bills are 4.28 today vs near zero 4 years ago, I mean WTF? https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/USTM3.RT/overview
Posted by: S Brennan | Apr 7 2025 19:56 utc | 99
Why do some people seem to think consuming is such a special ability? Kinda like the whole ”body positivity” nonsense: ”Fat is beautiful!”
China has already done the work of testing rapid increases in domestic incomes, so they can turn on massive domestic consumption at the drop of a hat. They’re just delaying that until necessary in order to squeeze the last bit of benefit out of being export focused.
"Really, why does anyone think it is only fat, dumb Americans who can consume? Unproductive consumption is the easiest thing in the world. You don’t need any special qualities to consume."
Posted by: William Gruff | Apr 7 2025 19:17 utc | 70
You are 100% correct-the problem though is that when the Chinese govt. doe turns on its domestic consumer tap, it will work wonderfully in the short and medium term, but it may doom that next generation into the same kind of entitlement mentality we have in the West.
I am confident the Chinese PTB realize this ominous social/economic reality and will only turn on the tap when absolutely necessary.
The comments to this entry are closed.
So in the most impoverished and unequal United States for almost a century.
Who has the Capital and who makes the gains?
(and how much does Musk and Trump and Thiel and co benefit from this.
Posted by: Mickey Droy | Apr 7 2025 17:07 utc | 1