Tariffs - Trump Blinks Again
On Thursday President Trump pulled back on tariffs because a sell-off in treasuries threatened to develop into a serious economic catastrophe.
Tariffs were reduced to 10% for most countries but China. (10% is still a lot higher than they were before Trump started his tariff onslaught.) The tariffs on products from China were raised to a total of 145%.
The high China tariffs would inevitably lead to a steep raise of U.S. prices for consumer electronics which, at least partially, are nowadays coming from China. For big U.S. companies, foremost Apple, this would have entailed large losses.
So Trump blinked again:
US excludes smartphones, computers from Trump's reciprocal tariffs - Reuters, Apr 12 2025
The Trump administration has granted tariff exclusions for smartphones, computers and other electronics imports supplied largely by China, sparing them from much of President Donald Trump's steep 125% duties.In a notice to shippers, the U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency published a list of tariff codes that will be excluded from the duties. The exclusions are retroactively to 12:01 a.m. on April 5.
The U.S. CBP listed 20 product categories, including the very broad 8471 code for all computers, laptops and disc drives and automatic data processing. It also included semiconductor devices, equipment, memory chips and flat panel displays.
The notice did not provide an explanation for the Trump administration's move, but the late-night exclusion provides welcome relief to major U.s. technology firms, including Apple Dell Technologies and countless other importers.
The full list of the new tariff exceptions is here.
This is a curious way to 1. undermining U.S. manufacturing and 2. to increase the trade imbalance.
High price, high technology products can now be imported from China with low tariffs applied to them while low tech intermediate goods from China, which U.S. producers need for their products, will have super high tariffs on them.
If this stands it will lead to more low tech production of intermediate goods within the U.S. while the high tech production will stay and expand in China.
China had retaliated to the U.S. tariffs by applying a 125% tariff on all U.S. products. It is unlikely to exempt specific categories from that. At rates above 100% trade between China and the U.S. will within a short timeframe come to a complete halt.
The U.S. has now exempted some 22% in value of its previous imports from China from tariffs while China keeps tariffs on all U.S. products high. The trade between the two countries will thereby become more unbalanced than ever before.
The U.S. will continue to import 22% of its previous imports from China while its exports to China will shrink to zero. The absolute trade imbalance will thereby be higher than it was before Trump started his tariff war.
All this is a curious way of acknowledging defeat in the war. The rolling of heads will start tomorrow.
Posted by b on April 12, 2025 at 15:56 UTC | Permalink
next page »The concession may work for Trump, but will China play ball? They might withhold all exports on principle, take this one to the WTO. That could take three months at least. The big question is where would China re-route its high tech products? Indian sub-continent? SE Asia? Middle East?
Posted by: Gerry Bell | Apr 12 2025 16:11 utc | 1
It would have taken ten years to build the factorys train the work force to make iphones.
Imagine the americans waiting for that long for a new phone.
And what would one cost.
Tariffs are just another shambles.
Good sound bite for his followers for five miniutes then on to Iran.
Mass ammnesa will soon kick in.
One cockup to the next.
Make israel great again.
Posted by: Mark2 | Apr 12 2025 16:16 utc | 2
What if:
1. Crashing the value of the dollar was the U.S objective in preparation for turning it into a manufacturing export economy?
2. The impoverishment of the American working class was preparation for building a low-wage peasant class for factory work.
I'm not saying it will succeed, but if you have pretensions of building a manufacturing economy you're going to need both the above (i.e , a currency weakened against the Yuan, lots of loyal wage slaves - Trumps demographic).
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Apr 12 2025 16:22 utc | 3
Gerry Bell | Apr 12 2025 16:11 utc | 1--
China has already taken its case to the WTO, is extremely confident and won't back down. It appears some very important US economic players were able to breech the communications wall and bite Trump's ass, while threatening to attack a more sensitive body part. I've yet to look at Chinese media today, but I doubt it will be saying anything different since Trump escalated the Trade War.
Trump was a fairly sharp business guy; some do not like him, but I don’t think anyone thinks that he was dumb. Unfortunately, Trump is getting older and he does not look like the sharpest knife in the drawer anymore. He also tends to promote the ideas of the last person that he has talked to and then goes on to the next great idea. In any case, Trump is a guy with a stopwatch in his hand and time is slipping away from him; so everything needs to be done now. There are insider reports that he “gives a f*ck” what happens and repeats this statement often; the main thing is that a particular item happens now and that it is successful. If not, then Trump the toddler, throws a temper tantrum. Of course you can not run an empire like that; things are looking to end badly. Business needs certainty and structure; they are not getting that from Trump.
It looks like the American empire is in very bad shape and things are going downhill real fast. Empires come and go throughout history, but this will be the first to go down that has killer nuclear weapons. I have witness many a crisis, but I can plainly state that I have never been so afraid of a situation as I am now. The wheels are coming off of the empire, the world economy will tank, there is unrest almost everywhere and a major war will surely follow. Patagonia is looking real nice about now; better brush up on your Spanish.
Posted by: meshpal | Apr 12 2025 16:29 utc | 5
As stated in my previous comment, I expect that Trump schizophrenia will lead to his imminent impeachment/resignation and replacement by Vance. That would be a mild outcome of this nutty dual financial and military ride that this individual has put US and the World on. The much more serious would be an internal kinetic conflict - civil war, perhaps starting with a military rebellion. This due to the fact that the Trump-related oligarchy, not bigger than about 10 individuals, is the only one benefiting and then hugely from the mad/crazy wild ride that Trump and his ZOG has put everybody on.
Trump has exceeded all standards of lying politicians - Trump is doing absolutely everything opposite to what he has promised before the election. The only constituency that he appears to be satisfying is those around 10 oligarchs.
Thus, the elections have replaced one set of US crooks with just another. It is not the people who would rebel, nobody is asking “We the people”. It would be the first set of crooks violently challenging the second set of crooks on this volatility profiteering.
Posted by: Kiza | Apr 12 2025 16:33 utc | 6
Arch Bungle | Apr 12 2025 16:22 utc | 3--
There's no plan, period. To recreate the sort of productive industry that once existed here, a very detailed plan is required that includes an equally detailed plan for its financing--no investment, nothing gets built, and the factories need to exist before you can hire the staff. If you've been following what Putin's been doing in Russia, then you'll understand just how immense such an undertaking is. I'm talking trillions of dollars up-front along with the detailed plan--none of that exists. And since nothing exists, then Trump's MAGA is also nothing but a slogan to get him elected, just like solving Ukraine in 24 hours was.
That kind of exemption just sends the signal this is a short-term tactic. Except maybe the 10% which could eventually morph into a VAT.
I don't think "China" is going to do anything to inhibit exports of ordinary goods to any other country but individual importers and exporters surely will be making decisions on delaying or re-routing goods.
If I heard correctly, things that are already on the boat as of the date the tariffs are imposed are not subject so cheap stuff won't be affected for a month or two (maybe longer if importers have loaded up in preparation), after which time I would expect random items to start being unavailable for purchase. Pricier high-margin light stuff that comes by air will be affected much sooner.
Posted by: Billb | Apr 12 2025 16:37 utc | 8
@meshpal 5
In my opinion, in case of a global nuclear war, Patagonia is not the place to be. Based on prevailing winds, it is only the Southern Chile, South Island of New Zealand and Antartica that have a small chance of survival.
Posted by: Kiza | Apr 12 2025 16:49 utc | 9
Customs are having a difficult time with all this "tariff whiplash."
nbc
. . .Dewardric McNeal, managing director and senior policy analyst at Longview Global with a focus on international trade, foreign affairs and defense, told CNBC glitches do happen, but the timing is unfortunate and will lead to more questions about Customs' ability to keep up with the pace of the tariffs.
"Whether you agree or disagree with the policy, you have to ask, do we have the ability to do it this rapidly?" said McNeal. "This glitch may be an indication we need more time. It seems odd this is the time it happens. This adds policy chaos for the implementer."
To keep the freight moving, Customs is telling firms to pay the duties and tariffs within ten days of the cargo's release to Customs.
"It's a mess, to simply state it," said McNeal. "I don't think it will slow down goods. But it will increase the paperwork for the U.S. companies who are suffering tariff whiplash. These companies will need to refile that at a later date. Trade will flow but at greater complexity.". .here
Posted by: Don Bacon | Apr 12 2025 16:53 utc | 10
China is NOT winning the tariff war. For all the smack talking, the United States is still the world's only true superpower militarily AND economically. As long as the US dollar is the world's reserve currency, America's sole superpower status is beyond dispute.
Posted by: bored | Apr 12 2025 17:03 utc | 11
Trump may fold if he can just get some high end investments in the US.
Stocks will keep moving down, given how overvalued they were to begin with. USD is collapsing and bond yields are rising, when the US is trying to pass a budget with trillions of debt involved. The Fed is torn between cutting interest rates to stimulate growth or raising interest rates to combat the coming inflation. Wall St actors are already warning about a credit crunch because of lost investments in fictitious capital.
Trump launched an idiotic trade war without having the budget in order, without having supply chains in place, without any industrial plan, and without any allies.
This is a collosal failure, another in a long line of US strategic errors.
What the US needs is to pull back militarily and cut defense, restore high taxes on the rich, nationalize Wall St to take back control of investment, and invest massively in infrastructure and education. None of this will be done by Democrats or Republicans and so alternative political forces must be built.
Posted by: Crumchy | Apr 12 2025 17:06 utc | 12
It’s funny that when trump accepts a concession, it’s “blinking.” Anyone else it would be called winning.
This is starting to feel like when the SMO started and every Russian move was a “defeat.”
Posted by: Phelps | Apr 12 2025 17:07 utc | 13
Missed the thread, so I'll just repeat what I said in th othr one.
Now would be an interesting time for EXPORT duties of … say 10-15% on those things the us wants
Not enough to reduce on consumer goods, but enough to give some inflation.
On dual usage they could go full 50-100% , and add a delay for approval, just screw the logistic chain enough to put a dent on drones and robotics
Posted by: Newbie | Apr 12 2025 17:09 utc | 14
in french there's a saying "jusqu'ici tout va bien" (distant cousin to "this is fine" meme), as long as the guy falling from the roof doesn't hit ground.
bored's "US superpower beyond dispute" sounds exactly the same...
Posted by: rototo | Apr 12 2025 17:16 utc | 15
High price, high technology products can now be imported from China with low tariffs
Posted by b at 15:56 UTC | Comments (13)
---
Basically the goods that are parasitized with American IP get a pass. Woe unto the Tech-bros when supply chain is broken.
Posted by: too scents | Apr 12 2025 17:18 utc | 16
I'm bored of reading nonsense.
In 2024, approximately 32 million vehicles were sold and purchased in China, and approximately 7 million were exported.
In 2024, approximately 16 million vehicles were purchased and sold in the United States, and approximately 1.6 million were exported.
China's economy is more than twice the size of the United States.
Posted by: Simon | Apr 12 2025 17:19 utc | 17
The loudmouthed new yorker is gifted with such a natural flair for the obnoxious that within six months time Americans will be completely divided against each other and the world will be completely united against Americans. He truly is the Swiss army knife of assholes.
Posted by: chunga | Apr 12 2025 17:22 utc | 18
Great article by Chistopher Black, based in Toronto, to remind us - in the face of the constant Western media propaganda - of what the US is and what the tariffs are.
https://journal-neo.su/2025/04/11/on-steve-miran-propaganda-as-economics/
Posted by: Canadian Cents | Apr 12 2025 17:24 utc | 19
I see typepad doesn't like all the links I have in my comment, which is too bad as it puts a bullet into bored's head. Its content and more will appear the article I compose today at my substack.
And Chinese missiles (DF-26, DF-27, YJ-21 ...) are simply from another planet.
And the American fleet has no defenses because its SM-3 missiles were designed to defend "Our colonial project" (Vladimir Jabotinsky) founded (1917-) by the British Empire and a group of violent Ukrainian, Polish, Lithuanian and Byelorussian emigrants who have been terrorizing the local population for 90 years.
Posted by: Simon | Apr 12 2025 17:26 utc | 21
Time to start considering what are the likely responses from Congress, Presidency, and Federal Reserve Bank once the insolvency of the Federal Gov‘t no longer can be denied…..happens in early 2027 or late 2026.
BTW - stock up on your favorite toothpaste. Beaucoup toothpaste is imported from China.
Posted by: Exile | Apr 12 2025 17:30 utc | 22
The Art of The Deal .. Trust me Trump has the upper hand and it is beautifully played..!
Posted by: Skip59 | Apr 12 2025 17:32 utc | 23
Trump knows nothing about China economy and how powerful it is.
Posted by: alfeu* | Apr 12 2025 17:33 utc | 24
The Art of The Deal .. Trust me Trump has the upper hand and it is beautifully played..!
Posted by: Skip59 | Apr 12 2025 17:32 utc | 23
Question is does he have enough rich buddies this time to bail out yet another failed business venture?
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Apr 12 2025 17:34 utc | 25
Posted by: meshpal | Apr 12 2025 16:29 utc | 5
>>>
DJT does not run the show in Washington.
He's just the captain of the Titanic, that shall hit the iceberg in 8 days time.
The 10y yield will explode next week. The housing market reached its peak on Friday, Feb 7-2025. From here down spiral.
And don't get me started with the (IRI). That's part two of the head-on crash collision.
The Outlaw US of A could never be the same.
The deep state was smart when they chose to nominate DJT for President again.
Posted by: pepe | Apr 12 2025 17:36 utc | 26
It’s funny that when trump accepts a concession, it’s “blinking.”
Posted by: Phelps | Apr 12 2025 17:07 utc | 13
But Trump did concede - and that *is* blinking - no matter what anyone else would have/could have/should have done in some parallel dimension of your imagination.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Apr 12 2025 17:39 utc | 27
As long as the US dollar is the world's reserve currency, America's sole superpower status is beyond dispute.
Posted by: bored | Apr 12 2025 17:03 utc | 11
If this was true, why would the U.S even need this tariff war?
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Apr 12 2025 17:40 utc | 28
Posted by: bored | Apr 12 2025 17:03 utc | 11
>>>
It takes years to build your reputation but five (5) seconds to destroy it.
Captain DJT is accelerating the already damaged US of A's reputation in the eyes of the ROW.
The Outlaw US of A could never be trusted.
Posted by: pepe | Apr 12 2025 17:42 utc | 29
Posted by: pepe | Apr 12 2025 17:42 utc | 29
############
Much of the ROW already knows that America is a bully not to be trusted.
The target audience's belief that is slowly being eroded is the jingoistic beliefs of the Imperial citizens.
IMO, Trump is being set up as the villain who betrayed/destroyed America. He wanted the job so bad.
“You either die a hero or live long enough to see yourself become the villain.”
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 12 2025 17:49 utc | 30
Pepe - more detail pluz.
He's just the captain of the Titanic, that shall hit the iceberg in 8 days time.
The 10y yield will explode next week.
Posted by: Exile | Apr 12 2025 17:49 utc | 32
Global War 6: Tariff Strife
Trump launches, then backpedals on a global tariff blitz primarily aimed at China. America's twin global roles—world cop and financial anchor—are burdens it must address to remain global hegemon.
https://www.beyondwasteland.net/p/global-war-6-tariff-strife
Up is Down; Down is UP; In is Out; Out is In; Roll on Monday and that 10 yr again ...
No sense; no sense at all.
Who's afraid of the Big Bad Wolf?
I'll have a few drinks later on and provide a few tunes to soothe the waves of Vertigo wafting across the bar .... later.
Posted by: Don Firineach | Apr 12 2025 17:50 utc | 34
But
But our oligarchy is large and powerful, the largest and most powerful on this planet, and it has two teams of salespeople at its service in Washington: Pepsi-Cola team and Coca-Cola team.
And the Chinese oligarchy has to suffer under the Communist Party, poor Chinese oligarchs.
-Yeah, You're right about that.
Posted by: Simon | Apr 12 2025 17:53 utc | 35
Ouch!
https://www.ianwelsh.net/china-cuts-the-legs-out-underneath-the-us-lng-industry/China Cuts The Legs Out Underneath The US LNG Industry
BY IAN WELSH ON APRIL 9, 2025
Posted by: Linda Wood | Apr 12 2025 17:56 utc | 36
1. Crashing the value of the dollar was the U.S objective in preparation for turning it into a manufacturing export economy?
2. The impoverishment of the American working class was preparation for building a low-wage peasant class for factory work.
I'm not saying it will succeed, but if you have pretensions of building a manufacturing economy you're going to need both the above (i.e , a currency weakened against the Yuan, lots of loyal wage slaves - Trumps demographic).
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Apr 12 2025 16:22 utc | 3
<=It was not tariffs that brought this idea to my mind ..I saw it in continuous set of USA failures to negotiate a damn thing that benefited America..since for a long time maybe since 1960 the outcome of nearly everything the USA has done has hurt bottom-up real America..and promoted, saved or bailed out the federal reserve and Wall Street.
I suggest your supposition has at least a 60% chance of being correct ..
There are two economies in USA governed America.. One is the deep state owned bank and wall street stock market economy and the other is the bread and butter American household economy. These two economies have been in competition with each other since the war of 1812.. in my opinion.
Developing this view I believe can explain the Lincoln and McKinley assassinations, the 16th amendment and the two notorious acts it produced in 1913, USA's support for WWI and WWII, the EPA act, the continental shelf Act, and many, many other things.
But other prerequisites exist: an experienced work force.. and a cutting edge modern educated scientific, engineering and management class capable to make these industries run. which can be obtained by placing foreigners in these positions.
Posted by: snake | Apr 12 2025 17:59 utc | 37
https://www.ianwelsh.net/china-cuts-the-legs-out-underneath-the-us-lng-industry/
Posted by: Linda Wood | Apr 12 2025 17:56 utc | 36
################
As usual, it looks like the US underestimated China's cards.
Steve Marin (Trump's tariff Svengali) has Curtis Yarvin-tier autism.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 12 2025 18:01 utc | 38
Very often its the small random detail in life that are the best indictors.
Frances best selling tour guide book of america has dropped in sales by 25%.
What dose that tell us.
America is self harming.
Posted by: Mark2 | Apr 12 2025 18:02 utc | 39
Posted by: snake | Apr 12 2025 17:59 utc | 37
################
Trump is doing everything out of sequence.
He's eating the cake before he buys the ingredients.
As an anti-imperialist, I love it!
MORE! MORE! MORE!
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 12 2025 18:07 utc | 40
Kkk must be cheering on their victory: ppl talk more on the tariffs on products that of the deported ppl. No journalist to interview them. New normal fascism.
Posted by: Minaa | Apr 12 2025 18:08 utc | 41
It's going to be painful, but I won't miss globalism. I haven't really been paying attention to all the economic Three Card Monte stuff. Trump is just the guy left holding the bag. Or maybe he's the robber.
I'm surprised more people aren't applauding the uncontrolled controlled destruction of the current state. Everything has been going so well, after all. Doesn't this fit the narrative of enjoying watching the USA reap the whirlwind of its own creation?
Posted by: lex talionis | Apr 12 2025 18:14 utc | 42
Will future historians refer to this hegemon as the Jackass Empire ?
MAGA..., MAKE AMERICA GOOFY AGAIN.
It's the end of the USA and I feel fine - R.E.M
Eating bugs is probably healthier than the current American diet
Posted by: FunnyStuff | Apr 12 2025 18:19 utc | 43
Posted by: Phelps | Apr 12 2025 17:07 utc | 13
I missed the part where China conceded anything. Chinese retaliatory tariffs are still in place.
@bored - wrong, again. China is now a peer adversary for the US. The only thing they lack is a blue water navy. Effectively, that is still a US advantage, but one that is practically limited by the need to stay involved in the ME to keep the spice flowing through the Red Sea. And increasingly offset by the emergence of cheap naval and aerial drone that could take out an aircraft carrier like a sitting duck
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Apr 12 2025 18:24 utc | 44
China is NOT winning the tariff war. For all the smack talking, the United States is still the world's only true superpower militarily AND economically. As long as the US dollar is the world's reserve currency, America's sole superpower status is beyond dispute.Posted by: bored | Apr 12 2025 17:03 utc | 11
Ooh. Pulling out the capitals! How very persuasive.
It’s funny that when trump accepts a concession, it’s “blinking.” Anyone else it would be called winning. This is starting to feel like when the SMO started and every Russian move was a “defeat.”Posted by: Phelps | Apr 12 2025 17:07 utc | 13
Hahahaha. Yes, America is doing so much winning. Thats exactly whats happening.
Real question time..why do Americans always want a savior? You know who fucked up America? Americans.
All the angst and defensiveness over King Thundercunt Blowhards dipshittery is reminiscent of a cult.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Apr 12 2025 18:40 utc | 45
My prediction, everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face. Trump, having failed to bring China to heel or make Russia accept his 'art of the deallll' is now floundering. He will prevaricate and threaten, and blow hot air. It's what he does. There is no fucking actual plan. It's bluster and bullshit all the way down. Holy shit these people cannot be serious.. but they are.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Apr 12 2025 18:46 utc | 46
Trump should appoint Lavrov as his closeist advisor and ditch musky.
Posted by: Mark2 | Apr 12 2025 18:54 utc | 47
@Doctor Eleven #46
The Iranian government telling Witkoff to pound sand will be the trifecta. More distractions being hatched?
Posted by: Billb | Apr 12 2025 18:55 utc | 48
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Apr 12 2025 18:46 utc | 46
Real question time..why do Americans always want a savior?
Perhaps because they know they have no real agency in any of the things that affect their lives.
Stranglers "No More Heroes" (1977)
Posted by: lex talionis | Apr 12 2025 18:55 utc | 49
Shipping from China to the USA and elsewhere has collapsed; in a few weeks, there will be no more pier space to store goods refused by the West.
The plan is simple and elegant: in 2025-2026, tariff and sanction China to death.
If by chance by then a revolution has not happened, bomb China into the Stone Age.
The difficult thing is to destroy enough of China to keep it down for the next 5 centuries, while preserving enough of its industrial base to provide us goods at cheap price.
Maybe an 'Iphone for rice' regime will suffice.
A nice collateral will be the fall and further disintegration of Russia
Posted by: Louis | Apr 12 2025 19:02 utc | 50
I see typepad doesn't like all the links I have in my comment, which is too bad as it puts a bullet into bored's head. Its content and more will appear the article I compose today at my substack.Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 12 2025 17:25 utc | 20
Try adding spaces to the links and "sensitive" words. I th ink the fil ter you spe ak off is bro ken by des ign.
Posted by: xor | Apr 12 2025 19:08 utc | 51
I'm bored of reading nonsense.
In 2024, approximately 32 million vehicles were sold and purchased in China, and approximately 7 million were exported.
In 2024, approximately 16 million vehicles were purchased and sold in the United States, and approximately 1.6 million were exported.
China's economy is more than twice the size of the United States.
Posted by: Simon | Apr 12 2025 17:19 utc | 17
Looks like maths is not your strong point.
As china's population is FOUR times US population, Chna's economy is LESS THAN HALF the USA one
Posted by: Louis | Apr 12 2025 19:11 utc | 53
Shipping from China to the USA and elsewhere has collapsed; in a few weeks, there will be no more pier space to store goods refused by the West.
Taking up fiction writing? I'm not sure there is a future in that, but fantasists like yourself do go far in Maerican politics. Maybe you could head the US Treasury. I mean, how hard can it be, amirite?
Fairy tales are also good for putting children to bed. Nighty night.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Apr 12 2025 19:12 utc | 54
53
Thanks for the laugh.
The next step will be to measure the number of missiles and destroyers ...
... per capita.
Posted by: Simon | Apr 12 2025 19:16 utc | 55
Keep trump on 24 hour watch in case he decides to commit.. herbicide.
Posted by: Mark2 | Apr 12 2025 19:16 utc | 56
- I have two submarines and three destroyers. You have four submarines and six destroyers.
- But my fleet is bigger than yours because my population is smaller.
The West is pure comedy.
Although unfortunately, it's a bloody comedy.
Posted by: Simon | Apr 12 2025 19:20 utc | 57
Posted by: too scents | Apr 12 2025 17:18 utc | 16
#########
IP is a delusion. You're far too smart to fall for that rent-seeking trap.
The only modern innovations America has had are in the number of genders and excuses for losing military conflicts.
The ROW creates new solutions and products.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 12 2025 19:44 utc | 58
Trumps new book "The Art Of The Surrender"
So all the high-tech stuff made in China gets an exception to the tariffs while all the cheap furniture, toys, shoes etc. in Walmart don't. "Only the little people pay tariffs" to misquote Leona Helmsley.
And neither do all the lower tech inputs that actual US manufacturing plants are dependent on.
And the Chinese keep their 125% tariff on everything.
This is not just a surrender, its a surrender plus blow your own leg off.
Posted by: Roger Boyd | Apr 12 2025 19:44 utc | 59
Posted by: Linda Wood | Apr 12 2025 17:56 utc | 36
From the article, also the epitaph on the US gravestone:
"This realigns American allies in Europe and Australia more towards China, it hurts the US, and it highlights the benefits of doing business with China."
Posted by: horseguards | Apr 12 2025 19:54 utc | 60
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Apr 12 2025 16:22 utc | 3
"The impoverishment of the American working class was preparation for building a low-wage peasant class for factory work."
And what about the cost of essentials for the peasants? Will all existing manufacturers, suppliers of goods massively cut their prices to accommodate the new regime? Indeed, can they without going bankrupt or alienating their shareholders?
Posted by: horseguards | Apr 12 2025 20:01 utc | 61
Trump's acrobatic back-peddling skill is impressive in one of his years. Unfortunately, his juggling skills are shit.
Posted by: horseguards | Apr 12 2025 20:09 utc | 62
Posted by: lex talionis | Apr 12 2025 18:14 utc | 42
For me the end of The End of History cannot come soon enough - its been an awful, murderous, amoral and soulless epoch.
Yes it will be painful and possibly dangerous but in the long run it will be good for people with useful skills like being able to do stuff, grow stuff, fix stuff and it may well be far better for the environment than the last 30 years of Green Climate Crisis bullshit.
Down with the FIRE economy, up with reality.
Posted by: ChatNPC | Apr 12 2025 20:09 utc | 63
Posted by: lex talionis | Apr 12 2025 18:14 utc | 42
"Doesn't this fit the narrative of enjoying watching the USA reap the whirlwind of its own creation"?
It certainly does.
Posted by: horseguards | Apr 12 2025 20:12 utc | 64
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Apr 12 2025 18:24 utc | 44
As demonstrated by the Houthis in the Red Sea.
Posted by: horseguards | Apr 12 2025 20:14 utc | 65
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Apr 12 2025 18:46 utc | 46
You're forgetting the contradictory plans of Kellog and Witkoff. Which to choose? Then again, they're best forgotten.
Posted by: horseguards | Apr 12 2025 20:18 utc | 66
And what about the cost of essentials for the peasants?
Posted by: horseguards | Apr 12 2025 20:01 utc | 61
###########
I am paraphrasing, but I think Shahid Bolsen's new video is, "You were always firewood to heat the elites".
It doesn't matter how hard people vote or how loudly they sing the anthem. The rulers have contempt for their subjects in the West.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 12 2025 20:22 utc | 67
One of the interesting observations I see about Trump is how he is simply out of cards both domestically and internationally. Starting in earnest since W. Bush every US administration has done their best to squander the immense power the US had militarily, economically, diplomatically, etc. There are no more effective cards to play other than a big war, but the elite know this will cause immense internal turmoil.
A sad spectacle to see, for the first time I see the actual fear in Trump more than the bluster, begging Putin for 5 hours to give the US a bone.
How the mighty have fallen.
Posted by: silverfoxes | Apr 12 2025 20:23 utc | 68
I don't even like tariffs, but...man, Trump is a cheap foldable suit. All talk loud and carry a twig. The Teddy Roosevelt inverse.
Posted by: Anonymous | Apr 12 2025 20:26 utc | 69
DJT is like a teenager acting out for not getting what he wants in a number of areas. He always is in need of butt kissing and he must be hurting badly.
He could have stuck with just executing the DOGE proposed savings with evidence to get beyond the headlines. Juggling the 10-year T-Bill is risky.
He is quickly accumulating a lot of bad baggage, Ukraine and Gaza included. Iran will run its course since NuttyYahoo is not nutty enough to venture out on his own. Repositioning and staging mil ops, showing the flag, burning up resources, grandstanding and what got accomplished?
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Apr 12 2025 20:29 utc | 70
What Typepad wouldn't allow, I published within "China's Unbowed & Trump Blinks Again". I see that Pepe Escobar and I are writing along similar lines, "Why China won’t call a ‘tariff-wielding barbarian’". The title and a political cartoon at his telegram speak to the idea that Trump assumed his maximum Pressure would force Xi to cower and make a phone call. IMO, what's clear despite the trolls efforts to sway the narrative away from reality is that the world has mostly stood its ground with the few that reacted without thinking have now rethought their actions and like Trump are changing their tune. The dust will further settle on Sunday so a better picture can then be made. Now with most of the drama exhausted, the scene shifts to Oman and the indirect talks between Iran and the Outlaw US Empire. IMO, getting any good info on them will need to wait.
xor | Apr 12 2025 19:08 utc | 51--
Thanks for your reply. I've tried many gimmicks over the years--yes, this issue has been ongoing for almost a decade--but most often they fail. Now that I have a substack platform, I can just republish there, and if barflies want to know what I wrote, then they'll click the link. This last one had five links to Chinese websites, all of which typepad's allowed before.
Defeat, destruction, and a complete asset strip of a more attackable country - will now be on the cards - to show China and the world that the USA isn't to be f*cked with.
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Apr 12 2025 21:35 utc | 73
Re my (73) comment the country in the crosshairs might be Venezuela - Trump has form with regards to Venezuela.
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Apr 12 2025 21:38 utc | 74
Well, round one goes very clearly to China. By showing the proper resolve, it has set a good example for its partners and those Ben dovers sadly trying to placate Trump and the Zionazi cabal in the US.
I think Trump's quick climb down was very revealing as to who really holds the power.
"The events of the past week provide a searing exposure of the class foundations of the capitalist state. The “invincible” Trump crumbled in the face of the demands of the bond market and Jamie Dimon. Wall Street needed a course correction, and it got one. The trillions in market losses and the tremors in the Treasury market were enough to force a sudden, if temporary, retreat."
There is no Trump dictatorship. There is only the dictatorship of finance capital. Trump's position is on lease and can be yanked back at any moment. Meanwhile, the Zionazi finance cabal in the west has the Dems in a laboratory somewhere developing new ways to sell Imperialist slavery and genocide as a virtuous anti racist Socialism. Trump merely cut a deal with our filthy finance vampires. They like his willingness to more intensely repress all internal opponents of the Israeli genocide and his allowance of more direct oligarchical control over the US government.
I'll say one thing for Trump. At least, he knows when he's fucked up. Compare his ridiculous gamble on China's "weakness" to the collective Biden's bet against Russia. The anti Russia crowd still doesn't realize they crapped out years after the loss in Ukraine became apparent to the entire sane world.
Apparently, there's also some political battle between Trump and the Fed, which adds another wrinkle. Trump and Co. seem to have been betting that the Fed would react to the tariffs by lowering rates. The Dem dominated fed seems determined not to help out. The little gremlin Yellin was crowing all last week against Trump. I think they know the crash is coming either way and they'd rather have it come while Trump is in office.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Apr 12 2025 21:38 utc | 75
I wouldn’t be surprised if some of these policies are just someone in the US government copy pasting crap from ChatGPT and reading them to DJT.
Posted by: Eol | Apr 12 2025 21:42 utc | 76
Posted by: Eol | Apr 12 2025 21:42 utc | 76
############
It would be trivial to train an AI to generate statements based on Trump's past ones.
Example from ChatGPT - "Write a short 80-word statement about why America has to use an aggressive tariff policy in the voice of Donald Trump."
Look, it’s very simple—America needs aggressive tariffs because other countries have been ripping us off for decades. They send us their junk, we lose jobs, and our factories close. Not anymore! We’re bringing back American strength, American steel, American workers. Tariffs level the playing field—make America competitive again. We’re not gonna be the world's piggy bank. Under my leadership, we put America First, and that means strong, smart tariffs that protect our great businesses and workers. Believe me!
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 12 2025 22:04 utc | 77
A president like Biden or Obama has advisers, and pretty much does what the advisers agree upon.
A president like Trump has an opinion of his own. That makes his actions less predictable.
One can see why high-ranking public servants would want to get Trump out of the way.
Posted by: Passerby | Apr 12 2025 22:07 utc | 78
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Apr 12 2025 21:38 utc | 75 Wrong, Trump is not fighting the dictatorship of finance capital/finance cabal/finance vampires. Yellen is neither Treasury Secretary nor a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. The Fed is not a Democratic Party institution, because banks/finance invest in both parties...but more in the Republicans of late because they do like Trump's pandering to billionaires directly running things (the only part I agree with!) The Fed would have cut rates earlier in the campaign to help Biden. In fact, as I see it, the Fed wants highest rates feasible without a crash to lower wages---they call that fighting inflation, but there isn't any wage push inflation---to restore profits. And the dictatorship of capital is not a dual power between finance capital and industrial capital, imperialism is the fusion of finance and industrial capital in a highly concentrated (aka monopoly) economy suffering from the tendency of the rate of profit to decline.
Posted by: steven t johnson | Apr 12 2025 22:11 utc | 79
Posted by: steven t johnson | Apr 12 2025 22:11 utc | 79
Although I'm greatly amused my comment has irritated you, Crypto Dem, you have, sadly and characteristically, misquoted me.
Go jack off to your picture of Yellin, creep.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Apr 12 2025 22:25 utc | 80
Thanks Karl for your MoA-link-denied substack piece.
Yes, Spain got a verbal spanking for its independent -heretical- trade with China.
And. Meloni has broken ranks. Before the last 24hr tariff-tornado, she’d booked a flight and an audience with Xi. She was castigated by the EU. And then they decided they’d make a pilgrimage themselves.
EU: https://www.reuters.com/world/eu-leaders-plan-beijing-trip-july-summit-with-chinas-xi-scmp-reports-2025-04-10/
Posted by: Melaleuca | Apr 12 2025 22:45 utc | 82
As Oliver Hardy said to Stan Laurel:
"Here's another nice mess you've gotten me into Stanley."
Or perhaps is should be Donald.
Posted by: George | Apr 12 2025 22:52 utc | 83
Pun: China’s got a beef with the U$.
It’s cut imports of U$ beef and meat products.
[Its buying more from Australia]
{kinda karma, as year’s ago the U$ pressured Australia to some belligerence against China, who cut our $AUD billions beef exports, and the U$ rushed in to take that market share}
Politico: §| Forget tariffs — Beijing is already choking off US exports on the sly
China juices trade war with nontariff barriers targeting MAGA-friendly U.S. export sectors.
“A tariff, you can just pay it, and things just get more costly,” said Ben Lilliston, director of rural strategies and climate change at the Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy.
“But this is a full restriction on your ability to send product to that country.”
The Chinese government knows where it can pinch US exporters hardest. It has already declined to renew export licenses for hundreds of meatpacking plants, alleged that some US chicken products contain unwanted drugs and stopped importing US natural gas. Those industry targets also happen to be some of the president’s most ardent political supporters.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/12/china-trade-war-exports-00287123
Posted by: Melaleuca | Apr 12 2025 22:55 utc | 84
So. Trump-U$ needs a “win”. How does the U$ measure a “win”. It bombs a defenceless country.
Hmmm. Looks at map. Afghanistan . That’ll work.
§|. China is occupying it”, President Trump resolves to ‘have Afghanistan’s Bagram airbase back’
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xKTZYgdy4Os
In a previous thread I posted:
Several reports have emerged that show that a US Military C-17 aircraft landed in Afghanistan’s Bagram Airbase this week.
The C-17 offloaded military equipment and senior intelligence officials including the CIA deputy chief.
Taliban have denied reports that they have handed over the Bagram airbase to the US
This comes amid Trump’s claims of wanting to retake the Bagram airbase as it remains a strategic airstrip to counter China and Iran.
Taliban took control of the airbase in 2021 after the US military made an exit from Afghanistan.
After decades of fighting, why is Taliban working to normalise relations with the US?
Posted by: Melaleuca | Apr 12 2025 23:05 utc | 85
Melaleuca | Apr 12 2025 22:45 utc | 82--
Thanks for your reply. Yes, I saw that written up in today's Global Times. Too funny, I said to myself. A new Gym rat named RalfB left an excellent comment on the "When you make enemies" thread about the real reasons why MAGA is more than a pipe dream. https://karlof1.substack.com/p/when-you-make-enemies-everywhere/comment/108235825
Australian Government just updated the travel advice to America:
https://www.smartraveller.gov.au/destinations/americas/united-states-america
>Latest update: Entry requirements are strict. US authorities have broad powers to decide if you're eligible to enter and may determine that you are inadmissible for any reason under US law.
Check US entry, transit and exit requirements. Whether you're travelling on a visa or under the Visa Waiver Program, ensure you understand all relevant terms and conditions before attempting to enter the United States.
~~~
Australian with working visa detained and deported on returning to US from sister’s memorial
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/11/australian-with-us-working-visa-detained-insulted-deported
Man who says he had previously left and re-entered the country multiple times alleges border officials called him ‘retarded’ and boasted ‘Trump is back in town’
He says the official then told him: “Trump is back in town; we’re doing things the way we should have always been doing them.”
He says he was given a space blanket, meals of “what tasted like dog food” and later swapped notes with other bewildered travellers, some of whom had not left the room for two days.
Eventually, Jonathan says, he was allowed a single phone call, made by an officer to his father. “By that stage, I had been missing for more than 30 hours.”
He says after a day and a half his name was called out and he was escorted by an armed guard to meet a flight to Australia.
Just before boarding – he was the first passenger on to the plane – he was passed an envelope containing his phone and watch. His passport was handed to him shortly before landing.
Comments:
# Why would anyone ever travel to the US under the current circumstances? One grumpy TSA worker is all you need to face life in prison in el salvador, no due process.
It’s legit safer to travel to North Korea than the US at the moment.
Disclaimer:
A lot of comments poked holes in this guys^ story. It seems he may have got a bit Karen when originally encountering U$ border control.
Posted by: Melaleuca | Apr 12 2025 23:18 utc | 87
'The loudmouthed new yorker is gifted with such a natural flair for the obnoxious that within six months time Americans will be completely divided against each other and the world will be completely united against Americans. He truly is the Swiss army knife of assholes.
Posted by: chunga | Apr 12 2025 17:22 utc | 18"
Et Tu Brut
Is that his job assigned by his superiors? Probably not . No shortage of assholes.
If only we would could harness the power of infinite assholes! :)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aXhjp85UNJI
Posted by: LosBanos | Apr 12 2025 23:52 utc | 88
Karl, while the media / chatosphere is focusing on smartphones and the newest nintendo, what’s also been relieved of tariffs a cohort of minerals.
I saw a list of graphite, calcium phosphate, barium surface, magnesium carbonate, fused magnesia, sintered magnesia, caustic calsined magnesite, fluorspar, incl containing calcium fluoride.
Will welcome barflies with expertise to jump in, but am assuming that China fucking/ go slow/ cease supply of these could have a deleterious downstream impact on the U$?
Posted by: Melaleuca | Apr 13 2025 0:06 utc | 90
Lets get this straight people!
Where do the collected tarrifs go?
Into Trumps MIC buddys pockets. Same as Biden buddys.
The tarrifs are a skim nothing more.
THERE IS NO ANTIDOTE FOR THE RESERVE CURRENCY CURSE BUT COLLAPSE.
Collapse is the normal and recurring result of all exponential growth observed on every level biological, natural, and economic.
EROI. Charles Hall.
It is a cancer that eats every economic sector.
Every economic sector.
Example:
Mean price of a house $750,000.
Mean income $62,000
Trying to fix it with more created currency is like a Junkie trying to get clean by shooting more fent.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/248004/percentage-added-to-the-us-gdp-by-industry/
Posted by: LosBanos | Apr 13 2025 0:09 utc | 91
This was posted by a commenter yesterday - had to search for it -
New Chinese Diplomacy here - Cartoon of the week
https://x.com/ChineseEmbinUS/status/1910761118965936633/photo/1
Posted by: Don Firineach | Apr 13 2025 0:19 utc | 92
@LosBanos | Apr 13 2025 0:09 utc | 91
Illustrative stat - 10% manufacturing [MIC?]
Do you have equivalent stats for PRC ...?
Yes, exponentials are a strange phenomenon.
Posted by: Don Firineach | Apr 13 2025 0:26 utc | 93
"China is NOT winning the tariff war. For all the smack talking, the United States is still the world's only true superpower militarily AND economically. As long as the US dollar is the world's reserve currency, America's sole superpower status is beyond dispute.
Posted by: bored | Apr 12 2025 17:03 utc | 11"
dude.
There is no tarrif war.
Thats a reality TV show.
In 72 Nixon left Bretton Woods to create currency for the Vietnam war.
Then IMMEDIATELY he bends over and pulls his pants down for China.
IMMEDIATELY.
The rest is history. The largest wealth transfer in modern history.
Tarrif wars is just another toad licker hallucination reality tv show.
It changes absolutely nothing except Trumps Mic buddys get a skim just like Nixons MIC buddys got a Skim ecetera ecetera ecetera..
USA economy is a distributions from a ponzi nothing more with every party self righteously demanding a cut.
Politicians are actors pandering to specific groups of cut demanders.
Chinas REAL economy, manufacturing capability, technological capability exceeds any society in recorded history.
Dang it appears Chinese civilization has been around for a while???
Go figure???
They got the ball and ran with it. Into the next county. Waterboy x 1000.000.000.000.
I must say the USA reality TV is exciting soap opera but unfortunately exponential growth only ends one way. There is no flexibility for the ghost writers there.
That will be presented with another toad licking psychotic explanation that has obvious holes.
Obvious holes are a demonstration of a sense of humor.
There are however two contradicting toad licking psychotic plot lines and their (fans) are (fanatical).
Example. Copy paste above.
Posted by: LosBanos | Apr 13 2025 0:38 utc | 94
Will all existing manufacturers, suppliers of goods massively cut their prices to accommodate the new regime? Indeed, can they without going bankrupt or alienating their shareholders?
Posted by: horseguards | Apr 12 2025 20:01 utc | 61
They will if they want to remain "existing manufacturers" anywhere in the world.
As for accommodating the new regime, they will do so or die. The u.s controls them wherever they run to on the globe.
If their shareholders start feeling a little alienated they can be replaced with the "shareholder of last resort" - good old Elon Muskrat.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Apr 13 2025 0:48 utc | 95
The internet: “Witkoff came to Russia again, they talked for 4.5 hours”
Q: Has Putin reached the chapter on the Napoleonic wars yet?
Posted by: Melaleuca | Apr 13 2025 0:54 utc | 96
But other prerequisites exist: an experienced work force.. and a cutting edge modern educated scientific, engineering and management class capable to make these industries run. which can be obtained by placing foreigners in these positions.
Posted by: snake | Apr 12 2025 17:59 utc | 37
I agree. The apparently irrational recent u.s actions are part of a preexisting strategy to regulate the kind of economy the American elites want to run.
"Controlled demolition of the tracks in order to change direction."
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Apr 13 2025 0:54 utc | 97
"As stated in my previous comment, I expect that Trump schizophrenia will lead to his imminent impeachment == Kiza"
I sure hope s-!
Posted by: lester | Apr 13 2025 1:11 utc | 98
What else was on the table with the Witkoff Moscow pow-wow?
The Gazprom* pipeline through Ukraine?
Ukraine turned off the gas flow on Dec31. But neither the pipeline, nor the gas belonged to them.
With NS2 out of commission. Is the U$ attempting to usurp Ukraine as the “man-in-the-middle” between Russian gas supply and EU markets?
I saw somewhere in the maelstrom of Trump tariff mayhem that the EU had agreed to take $300b of U$ LNG.
Rather than try to ship that volume to Europe, how about buy it from Russia, put it through the existing Ukrainian pipeline, (now owned by the U$) and thus label the gas “US LNG”. ?
§|~ “Ukraine’s Gas War Backfires — US Demands Gazprom Pipeline Control, Europe in Crisis!”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fwesU29L4-s
*AND. Is this why Russia agreed to a 30-day ceasefire on energy infrastructure?
A backroom Gazprom-U$>EU gas supply and pipe deal?
Russia has form in this - doing gas deals - …It previously kept supplying gas as per existing (pre 2022) contracts despite SanctionsFromHell™️, the sloSMO, and all other insults and indignities.
Posted by: Melaleuca | Apr 13 2025 1:16 utc | 99
"...what’s also been relieved of tariffs a cohort of minerals.
I saw a list of graphite, calcium phosphate, barium surface, magnesium carbonate, fused magnesia, sintered magnesia, caustic calsined magnesite, fluorspar, incl containing calcium fluoride.
"Will welcome barflies with expertise to jump in, but am assuming that China fucking/ go slow/ cease supply of these could have a deleterious downstream impact on the U$?"
Posted by: Melaleuca | Apr 13 2025 0:06 utc | 90
US is 4% of the world's population, but consumes 25% of global minerals production. To steal a word from LoveDonbass, that is UNTENABLE in the long term.
US reliance on imports of minerals (besides oil and gas and coal maybe copper) is truly amazing.
https://nma.org/2023/01/31/u-s-reaches-highest-recorded-mineral-import-reliance/
Posted by: Spectator | Apr 13 2025 1:31 utc | 100
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