Secretary of State Marko Rubio, presidential envoy Steve Witkoff, several foreign ministers from Europe and the Ukrainian President Zelenski were supposed to meet in London today.
The Trump administration had planned this to be a final meeting over a ceasefire in Ukraine. A U.S. proposal for the ceasefire were to be discussed and accepted.
But Zelenski bailed out and the proposed meeting fell apart. According to the Independent Zelenski had feared to be "ambushed":
Actor turned statesman Volodymyr Zelensky may have only ever played a soldier, but as a war time leader he knows an ambush when he sees one.
Having been trapped in the Oval Office and eviscerated by Donald Trump and JD Vance, he has avoided an enfilade from a crack team of American diplomats in the London kill zone by not turning up at all.
Tipped off that his intended target was not going to wander into his sights, the US team leader, secretary of state Marco Rubio, called off the operation altogether and stayed in Washington along with Steve Witkoff, Trump’s envoy to Vladimir Putin.
Keith Kellog, Trump’s envoy to Ukraine, who was already in London, has been left to observe peering through the privet while foreign secretary David Lammy squires the Ukrainian foreign minister for much downgraded “talks”.
At least the British hosts were not saddled with what could have been an historic mess in which Zelensky was presented with a US-Russian ultimatum and then painted as a rejectionist war monger when he said “nemaye” (no).
Other media are vague about the reasons to downgrade the talks. There is generally no common line in the media reporting of the issue. Axios claims that Ukraine rejected to negotiate a longer term ceasefire and instead only offered a shorter term:
A U.S. official involved in the discussions said Rubio and Witkoff worked together "to develop a framework to get us closer to reaching an end to the war."
- However, the official said that over the last 24 hours there had been indications from the Ukrainians that they wanted to discuss a 30-day ceasefire during Wednesday's meetings in London rather than Trump's peace plan framework.
- "The decision was made for the secretary to not travel to London. Instead, the U.S. delegation will continue to engage in conversations with U.K. and Ukrainian counterparts," the official said.
The U.S. ceasefire plan includes several points which either the Ukrainians, the Europeans or the Russians were certain to reject.
The Telegraph seems to have the most complete list of its points:
A source with knowledge of the plan’s contents said that its points one and two cover an immediate ceasefire and direct talks between Ukraine and Russia, which Mr Zelensky has already accepted in principle.
Point three requires Ukraine to refrain from seeking membership of Nato, though the country would still be free to join the EU.
European countries could deploy an assurance force to deter Putin from invading again, but The Telegraph understands that the plan does not commit the US to guarantee the security of any such deployment.
…
Point four covers territory, with America offering de jure recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea, the region of Ukraine which Putin illegally annexed in 2014.
…
As well as some territory switching hands to Ukraine, the nuclear power station at Zaporizhzhia, the largest in Ukraine and currently held by Russian forces, would be transferred to American control.Under point six, Ukraine would sign the minerals deal allowing US companies access to the country’s natural resources.
Point seven raises the possibility of a new relationship between America and Russia, saying that all US sanctions would be lifted and the two countries could begin to co-operate on energy.
Zelenski does not want to concede any territory. He also does not want to sign the mineral deal which would eliminate all sovereign decisions abut Ukraine's resources. A longer war, during which billions of dollars and Euros keep flowing, is the best deal for him.
At least some Europeans still want to 'win' against Russia. They reject any lifting of sanctions. They want to insert 'peacekeepers' into Ukraine but only with U.S. backing.
Russia wants a bigger deal, not just a ceasefire in Ukraine, but a new European security architecture.
Claims by the Financial Times that Russia is willing to stop the war and to give up on its larger aims of demilitarizing and denazification of Ukraine have been rejected by Moscow. Russia will also not give up control of the nuclear power station in Zaporizhzhia.
The U.S. acceptance of Crimea as Russian territory is an interesting point but likely based on an ulterior motive. It would lift sanctions on Crimea and allow U.S. companies to take part in the exploitation of natural gas fields around it.
There is little the U.S. can do for now to press for a compromise. The best and most likely move is for Trump to wash his hands over Ukraine and walk away.
This would fit the larger plan of leaving the struggle with Russia to the Europeans while the U.S. will concentrate its forces in Asia for a potential conflict with China.