Poisonous Tariff Uncertainty
Uncertainty (or volatility) is the live-blood of financial markets. If financial actors were certain about the development and strength of the underlying factors the markets would be predictable. There would be no need to hedge risks and no profits were to be made through speculation. Uncertainty is what keeps financial markets alive.
For those dealing with real products in the real economy uncertainty is a poison. When the prices of products become too volatile the risk of dealing with them and of investing in their production becomes too high. When volatility prevails real markets will falter.
This is where Trump's tariff mania hits.
As a recent NY Times piece highlights (archived):
Businesses are rushing to cancel factory orders or halt shipping containers before they leave China, unable to afford the tariff when the ships arrive in America. They are pausing capital investments and new hiring, and scaling back spending to only the bare necessities. Future products are being scrapped, because they are no longer financially viable.
The Federal Reserve Bank St. Louis produces hundreds of economic statistics. It includes several which are measuring uncertainty:
bigger
People’s confidence in anticipating the future dwindles during periods of major economic change. Economists and analysts try to gauge the level of uncertainty about economic conditions because it can affect economic decisions (saving, spending, investing, switching jobs…), which can affect aggregate economic outcomes.
...
Many factors can cause uncertainty, such as structural economic shocks, global events, and financial crises. Policy actions can also drive economic uncertainty. In our second FRED graph above, we use the overall economic policy uncertainty index (EPU) to understand how important policy uncertainty is for the recent increase in overall uncertainty.
...
The EPU also has values for subcategories such as taxes, regulation, and trade. By looking at these subcategories, we can identify the specific types of economic policy that are most associated with uncertainty. .. Until summer 2024, most types of economic policy uncertainty were at or below 100, meaning they were at normal or low levels. Recent uncertainty, which began rising in 2024, has been especially pronounced for trade policy. By February 2025, it had jumped to almost 2500, which implies close to 25 times more uncertainty than the norm.
Note that the FRED data only includes February. The additional uncertainty introduced by recent Trump shifts on tariffs have yet to be incorporated.
The larger aims behind Trump's tariffs are to press the world to subsidize U.S. empire and, in a repeat of the cold war, to shun all trade with China. Neither is likely to work.
The cost introduced by the tariffs and the uncertainty will have to be carried by U.S. consumers as well as by a myriad of small and medium enterprises. The lack of imports from China on the shelves will be visible for everyone. The larger economic fallout will have nearly immediate effects.
In his recent interview with Time Trump seems totally unfazed by this. He is convinced that his tariff strategy will win.
Q: If we still have high tariffs, whether it's 20% or 30% or 50%, on foreign imports a year from now, will you consider that a victory?Total victory.
Q: Why so?
Because the country will be making a fortune. Look, that's what China did to us. They charge us 100%. If you look at India—India charges 100-150%. If you look at Brazil, if you look at many, many countries, they charge—that's how they survive. That's how they got rich. Now, zero would be easy. Oh, zero would be easy, but zero, you wouldn't have any companies coming in. They're coming in because they don't want to pay the tariffs. Remember this, there are no tariffs, if they make their product here. There are no tariffs, if they make their product here. There are no tariffs. This is a tremendous success. You just don't know it yet, but this is a tremendous success what’s happening. We're taking in billions and billions of dollars, money that we never took in before. We're also, very importantly, because of that, because of the money we're taking in, those companies are going to come back and they're going to make their product here. They're going to go back into North Carolina and start making furniture again. They've already started. In Mexico, many car plants that were under construction have stopped. They're all coming into this country. We're gonna, you're gonna see car plants going at a level that you've never seen before.
But how long will it take to build those new plants? What if the machines needed to build them come from China? How long will it take to find and train new workers? Will they be able to produce at competitive prices?
The hoped for positive side of the tariffs are long term. The pain from them will hit immediately. Why Trump thinks he and the Republicans can survive this politically is beyond me.
But how can he change course when he is committed like this?
Posted by b on April 26, 2025 at 15:11 UTC | Permalink
The VIX is still within intermediate values.
The short term impacts can be significantly smaller the the tariffs would seem to imply.
As for the immediate chaos , it should be seen as a non military version of shock and awe.
My 2 cents
Posted by: Newbie | Apr 26 2025 15:19 utc | 2
The Golden Don will probably lose the midterms. The GOP under Trump doesn't perform well nationally if he is not on the ballot.
Losing the midterms will strangle the MAGA agenda in the crib.
Trannies will be back, baby!
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 26 2025 15:19 utc | 3
Rational decision making has been in short supply in the western world leadersfor quiet some time as we have all observed.
Posted by: jpc | Apr 26 2025 15:20 utc | 4
Trump has passed remarkably few bills. Almost everything has been by Executive fiat.
The antiquated and anachronistic "American system" isn't fit for the modern world.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 26 2025 15:22 utc | 5
If you want more insight into Trump's trade war here is the playbook he is using:
Balanced Trade: Ending the Unbearable Costs of America’s Trade Deficits
by Jesse Richman, Howard Richman, Raymond Richman
Posted by: anonymous | Apr 26 2025 15:27 utc | 6
The VIX is still within intermediate values.
Posted by: Newbie | Apr 26 2025 15:19 utc | 2
---
A deer in the headlights frozen before impact.
Posted by: too scents | Apr 26 2025 15:27 utc | 7
3/5 posts in support of the continuation Obama/Bideneque policies by other means...yeah that's the right road.
The NYTimes is a 3LA mouthpiece, everything they say is calculated to maintain Langley's hidden hand of fascism...
Posted by: S Brennan | Apr 26 2025 15:32 utc | 8
Why Trump thinks he and the Republicans can survive this politically is beyond me.
Posted by b on April 26, 2025 at 15:11 UTC | Permalink
---
One explanation could be that Trump plans to sell tariff indulgences.
Posted by: too scents | Apr 26 2025 15:37 utc | 9
agreement incapable on a whole another level !
Anyone who has been on the front lines of manufacturing knows how supply chains are built on trust. This trust is developed over years between respective purchasing agents, shop floor managers, engineers, quality departments, and sales teams. It’s Block ‘n Tackle day after day.
Break that trust and kiss your customer/suppler goodbye.
Trump just did this.
Posted by: Exile | Apr 26 2025 15:44 utc | 10
Correcting my #8 post, should have been:
First...3/5 posts in support of the continuation Hillary/Cheney/Obama/Bideneque policies by other means...yeah"
We didn't get here without a bipartisan effort and oddly, the storm-troopers behind Hillary/Cheney/Obama/Biden all exhibit pronounced TDS. How does one know when one is listening to an agent of Langley's hidden hand of fascism? Are there any obvious signs of TDS...there's your first clue.
Posted by: S Brennan | Apr 26 2025 15:50 utc | 11
War party inside St. Peter
Yes!!
The war is back on 😳
Starmer and Macron were most convincing … Russia’s presence is a hinder to peace for the West … can you believe this BS ⁉️
More war a nice investment putsch
The thirteen per cent of China's US export recipients can easily be shifted elsewhere, like in southeast Asia and Europe.
SCMP
BEIJING, April 11 (Reuters) - Chinese President Xi Jinping begins a three-nation tour of Southeast Asia next week, his first overseas trip this year, aiming to consolidate ties with some of China's closest neighbours as trade tension escalates with the United States.
MSN
Faced with an effective trade embargo from the US, Chinese policymakers and business leaders are searching for new markets in Europe and beyond. To help smooth those ties, Xi is preparing to lift sanctions on several EU lawmakers, according to one European official — a largely symbolic gesture of good will as the measures had little impact.
“As the world’s major economies, China and Europe will jointly safeguard the multilateral trading system,” the Chinese Foreign Ministry said in a statement Thursday, adding that it would welcome more European members of parliament to visit China, without addressing reports on sanctions being lifted.
NBC - 2023
Walmart is importing more goods to the United States from India and reducing its reliance upon China as it looks to cut costs and diversify its supply chain, data seen by Reuters shows.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Apr 26 2025 16:32 utc | 13
Trump cannot read or think critically.
The only type of thought he is capable of is counting money.
His grasp on cause/effect is nil.
He is a stable genius because no facts or theory ever enter into his mind.
He is like a gyroscope, spinning away on his own plane.
He is convinced that getting something for credit (American dollars printed up by the Fed to inflate the global reserve currency) is a rip off and a scam, because there is "money" flowing to other countries. He thinks other countries are paying into the American Treasury's external revenue service. Megalomania is an actual personality disorder in the DSM V. Trump is literally psychotic and delusional.
All the efforts to see strategems and game theory behind the cacophony of 'moves' and 'utterances' is a fool's errand.
Posted by: Webej | Apr 26 2025 16:51 utc | 14
A reduction in worldwide consumption is required to prevent/mitigate the catastrophic events that climate change is driving.
Donald Turnip is an environmentalist - by destroying US consumption ability he is reducing worldwide energy consumption.
Just like Dubya was an environmentalist by pushing oil over $100/barrel.
Posted by: Polli | Apr 26 2025 16:51 utc | 15
Posted by: Polli | Apr 26 2025 16:51 utc | 15
The rate of growth of consumption of oil did not change in any meaningful manner then and will not change from this.
Posted by: Badjoke | Apr 26 2025 17:16 utc | 16
Just when you thought the Imperialist ruling class couldn't get more delusional--the lost Ukrainian gamble--we get another jumped up tool of Zios with a new, stupider and even bigger wager: bring China and the world to their knees through tariffs!
On the positive side, I have heard said that Trump is now ready to reverse course on what is effectively a trade embargo on China. I will say that, at least, it appears to take him less time to realize he fucked up than it does for your average true believer Dem. A psyoped Dem will still tell you Ukraine could win if only we gave them more.
Nonetheless, the bare minimum political consciousness for any American wage slave at this stage of history is a complete rejection of both Imperialist parties. Any house slave providing any form of rhetorical support to either of these parties deserves the harshest ridicule. Any bourgeois who provides any significant support to either of the Imperialist parties deserves immediate expropriation or a trial, conviction and the death penalty.
Take the lies of Bernie and make them true: abolish the billionaires!
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Apr 26 2025 17:47 utc | 17
Re Badjoke- I definitely agree real world data is subject to much variation making interpretation difficult.
The rate of growth appears to declining, and at worst no longer increasing exponentially.
Posted by: Polli | Apr 26 2025 17:53 utc | 18
I have heard said that Trump is now ready to reverse course" Ahenobarbus 17
Trump reversed himself on day six of his ill-conceived ploy but, the Chinese have not reversed their response. Ripping a page from their past imperial glory and pasting it into it's present-day imperial glory, Trump must be made to kowtow before today's emperor.
There is much to admire of China's glory, just as there is much to be revolted by...
Mercantilism, balanced-trade and bilateral-trade agreements will create a more prosperous, and resilient world. Any system operating at 99.9% efficiency is a system that's one failure away from collapse. World organizations have proven themselves susceptible to the undemocratic forces of tyranny, they must be torn down and their adherents defenestrated.
Posted by: S Brennan | Apr 26 2025 18:06 utc | 19
Mercantilism, balanced-trade and bilateral-trade agreements will create a more prosperous, and resilient world. Any system operating at 99.9% efficiency is a system that's one failure away from collapse. World organizations have proven themselves susceptible to the undemocratic forces of tyranny, they must be torn down and their adherents defenestrated.
Posted by: S Brennan | Apr 26 2025 18:06 utc | 19
#######
Sounds a lot like bitter cope. America ignores the UN, the criminal courts, lies to start wars, and steals oil in West Asia.
America is a hegemon, it doesn't want a more resilient world. It wants a world that kisses its feet.
There is much to like in China's past. Confucianism is one of the gems of humanity; America has no such analogue. America worships profit and violence.
"Balanced trade". 😂😂😂
"undemocratic". PLEASE STOP!
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 26 2025 18:14 utc | 20
Almost 100 days have passed and DJT has accomplished nada, zero and not a single win.
Instead, he had caused chaos and destruction in nearly 180 countries with his primary-school mathematical tariff formula.
More significantly:
# The IRI has no faith in DJT.
# The PRC has no faith in DJT.
# The RUF has no faith in DJT.
# The EU has no faith in DJT.
# The RoW has no faith in DJT.
Those who act in bad faith can never win.
Earlier DJT threatened the RUF with additional [secondary?] tariffs.
Under the sun of the Vatican City State, the Baron of the City of London had a long and deep conversation with VOZ.
Posted by: pepe | Apr 26 2025 18:23 utc | 21
A deer in the headlights frozen before impact.
Posted by: too scents | Apr 26 2025 15:27 utc | 7
Maybe, but I expect to see things above 80 before things are dire...
One explanation could be that Trump plans to sell tariff indulgences.
Posted by: too scents | Apr 26 2025 15:37 utc | 9
Funny that you should mention that, but the thesis were probably nailed at the end of WWI, we are now heading for the pause before the 30 years war. That's why, for RF, a 10 year truce is in order.
Posted by: Newbie | Apr 26 2025 18:25 utc | 22
Posted by: Polli | Apr 26 2025 17:53 utc | 18
The RoC for the last 30 years has been about 3% per year. The fluctuations have averaged out as new production comes online.
Just wait on the Utah and Colorado oil shale to get exploited. EROI of 1-3 but as it uses a catalytic process to retrieve you don't pay for the energy input which makes it economically efficient even if thermally it is not. Biden got the easements in place to build the pipelines along interstate highways so state interference is null. Now Trump will make sure that emissions from the shale deposits are not covered under regulation so the Dumbs can pretend it's all his fault. After that invade Venezuela and take that nice light sweet you get from the shale to cut that heavy sour and boom world recoverable oil goes back to the roof. Until the mollusks die out from acidification at least and who knows how long that will take.
Posted by: Badjoke | Apr 26 2025 18:57 utc | 23
re: Poisonous Tariff Uncertainty
. . . from LATimes, today
Trump keeps contradicting himself on tariffs, making a fragile world economy nervous
WASHINGTON — President Trump can’t stop contradicting himself on his own tariff plans.
He says he’s on a path to cut several new trade deals in a few weeks — but has also suggested it’s “physically impossible” to hold all the needed meetings.
Trump has said he will simply set new tariff rates negotiated internally within the U.S. government over the next few weeks — although he already did that on his April 2 “Liberation Day,” which caused the world economy to shudder.
The Republican president says he’s actively negotiating with the Chinese government on tariffs — while the Chinese and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have said talks have yet to start. . .here
Posted by: Don Bacon | Apr 26 2025 19:03 utc | 24
Oui
The pic of z and trump holding a meeting on 2 red chairs in a huge marble room in the Vatican is clearly an ad. They probably rent the rooms for private events.
Posted by: Minaa | Apr 26 2025 19:14 utc | 25
I don't know if everyone knows that Scott Bessent was George Soros' fund manager.
What I found interesting is that for most of Bessent's career, he has been anti-China, trying to help Soros collapse Chinese trade through market shenanigans.
We see his idiotic and Sinophobic lies now being perpetuated on Trump's behalf.
I am here for it. Bessent has never been successful against China, and he is part of the massive hole that Trump is digging for America.
The "damage" that Trump is doing will require an asymmetric response to "clean up". A theoretical "new" President can't just order more missiles and cut tariffs to zero.
I used the analogy of a big traffic accident recently. Clearing the traffic may still require hours for the backlog of cars to dissipate.
Every day of Trump is a gift to the world IMO. He's digging that hole so deep that there is no timeline where America can climb out.
It's not all his fault. He is the perfect egotist and supremacist to execute what were flawed policies before he even enacted them.
I heard today that major retailers have been meeting with Trump, warning him that empty store shelves by summer are a serious possibility. The flow of cargo ships from China has nearly ground to a halt, and even if new ones were launched on Monday, it would take weeks for products to reach warehouses.
Oh, and in more amazing economic news, which I mentioned recently, China is issuing US dollar-denominated debt, and that Chinese dollar debt is more sought after than American-issued debt because China is considered to be more reliable economically in the long term. That way, China is finding a way to use dollars without being exposed to the dollar system.
Also, China's recent international banking system allows the world to bypass SWIFT, which would make many transactions opaque to the West. From a Misesian lens, lack of information causes economic misallocation, which is what brought down the USSR according to Austrian economic theory.
Macroeconomics is easy when you own the markets. China creating new markets that the West cannot control is bad for the City of London and Wall Street.
Another year at this pace and many manifestations of Western power will quietly disappear.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 26 2025 19:18 utc | 26
I just finally started reading Art of the Deal today (chapter 1). The first page itself explains all that he is doing and it makes perfect sense into his mindset.
Posted by: Sal | Apr 26 2025 19:57 utc | 27
Posted by: Sal | Apr 26 2025 19:57 utc | 27
#######
A short and easy read. It provides a lot of insight into Trump's approach.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 26 2025 19:59 utc | 28
Hmm, what’s that phrase, oft used by smug leftists? Oh yes, sometimes you have to break a few eggs.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 26 2025 15:19 utc | 3
You assume that the present cracks in the Democratic Party have not widened ‘in 26, to gaping fissures. As for the trannies, they’re already being in the process of being hooked off stage, and in five years time few if any will admit to supporting the ideology, or try to lamely explain that ‘you had to have lived then to understand what happened’.
Your view of history is, it seems, fixed on the idea that the future is simply an extension of the present. To hit a moving target you’ve got to lead it, the LGBGT movement is becoming dangerously counter-productive and therefore a danger to the ‘plan’.
Posted by: Milites | Apr 26 2025 20:08 utc | 29
The end is near for Gaza…West Bank will be cleansed next…then “Palestine” disappears into history…heheheh…
Posted by: Destroyer Of Gaza | Apr 26 2025 20:17 utc | 30
You assume that the present cracks in the Democratic Party have not widened ‘in 26, to gaping fissures. the ‘plan’.
Posted by: Milites | Apr 26 2025 20:08 utc | 29
#####
It is easier to be the hunter than the hunted.
Who will Trump run against as the incumbent? All of his energy is rooted in blame and "the other". The lack of a galvanizing wedge issue like abortion or woke will hurt him since he continues to fail on the economic and war fronts.
Going against SCOTUS and the courts will not help him come election time.
What you think about Trump doesn't matter. How people perceive the economy will be everything.
Let's see him turn over expiring treasuries as global growth and international relations collapse.
As far as history goes, we have seen all of this before in Weimar Germany. The debt, the degeneracy, the fascism, the internal division.
There is nothing new under the sun.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 26 2025 20:27 utc | 31
Destroyer Of Gaza | Apr 26 2025 20:17 utc
For generations to come the Holocaust memory will be gathering dust. Western "civilizatuon" will forever be remembered by being a witness to the Gaza genocide ... Nakba of 1948 and the crimes against humanity in between. I wouldn't invest in the Third Temple just yet ... the red heifers are a false token for Zionism. Kahane is dead.
The end is near for Israel…Brooklyn will be cleansed next…then “Zionism” disappears into history…heheheh…
Posted by: Destroyer Of Gaza | Apr 26 2025 20:17 utc | 30
####
FTFY
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 26 2025 20:31 utc | 33
The end is near for Gaza…West Bank will be cleansed next…then “Palestine” disappears into history…heheheh…
Posted by: Destroyer Of Gaza | Apr 26 2025 20:17 utc | 30
In a 1000 years people calling themselves Palestinians will return to that land that is now colonized by Israeli Jews.
And the rest of the world will look away in shame while Israeli children get slaughtered.
And you will hear some idiot chuckle with glee while the blood flows.
Some things never change.
Posted by: Martina | Apr 26 2025 20:35 utc | 34
good title which i think captures the zeitgeist here.. it is also clearly reflected in the chart you share, and that doesn't include the more recent months of march and april..
the turn around times for shipping and transportation are anywhere from 45 to 65 days - give or take, from china to the usa, and different parts of the usa... we will see soon enough just how this affects supply chains in the usa and canada..
i personally think this redirecting of the titanic is a longer term project that can't be done in a short amount of time.. trump wants to get corporations to build in the usa.. fine... that is not going to happen overnight.. it will take as long as it did in china which began in the 1970's and here we are 50 years later... it is going to take a lot of time.. i am not sure the usa has that kind of time to see this happen... the short sightedness of 4 year mandates of gov't doesn't help either.. thanks for the post b..
Posted by: james | Apr 26 2025 20:39 utc | 35
Which of Palestine and Israel is "Lindy"?
Palestine has endured numerous crusades, the Roman Empire, the Golden Horde, etc.
Western (Anglo-American) Zionism is a fart during a hurricane.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 26 2025 20:41 utc | 36
Some klown Destroyer deeply misunderstands Israel.
First, it's called Azza, just look at the road signs.
Next, ongoing conflict is required for the State otherwise civil war will erupt and end the current apartheid.
The goals of the current regime remain
Keep Bibi out of jail
Prevent an election
Destroy the left wing
Increase worldwide antisemitism
Get with the program please
Posted by: Polli | Apr 26 2025 20:48 utc | 37
Uncertainty is the live-blood of financial markets.
Superb analysis, well-written because well thought-out, commencing with a priceless bon mot to append our list of classical thoughts and meditations on uncertainty.
In the early twentieth century, three great quandaries rose like wandering stars: relativity, uncertainty, and incompleteness. Nearly 100 years later (Gödel published in 1931), we have yet to reconcile the three with each other, and with previous notions of subject and object.
Posted by: Aleph_Null | Apr 26 2025 21:09 utc | 38
Posted by: james | Apr 26 2025 20:39 utc | 35
Deng Xiaoping: 'It doesn't matter if a cat is black or white, so long as it catches mice.'
China's industrialisation happened during a period of relative abundance of energy and raw materials. The USA's re-industrialisation is during a period where energy is much more scarce. It's going to be an uphill battle.
IMHO, it would have been better for Trump to have gotten in touch with Xi, stated clear goals - number of Americans working in industry, percentage of GDP in industry - and negotiated a deal with the Chinese. Perhaps still possible.
Posted by: Passerby | Apr 26 2025 21:28 utc | 39
The American automotive industry is so done.
🇨🇳China's new EV with its own flying vehicle included. No other country can compete with China's innovation. 🚗🚁
1 minute video
https://x.com/commiepommie/status/1916057945139474434
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 26 2025 21:38 utc | 40
@ Passerby | Apr 26 2025 21:28 utc | 39
a good saying to quote... thanks... it seems trump has other plans.. negotiating only happens later, if at all.. i personally think he has put the usa in a corner, and it will be hard to get out of this corner.. time will tell and it won't be obvious for a while..
Posted by: james | Apr 26 2025 21:43 utc | 41
Trump wants to bring industry back to the USA. Creating blue-collar jobs is something every European socialist ought to applaud. Yet the European left shows disdain for Trump.
Posted by: Passerby | Apr 26 2025 21:46 utc | 42
Dystopia Beckons. A bed time story.
If it is the building of the new iron curtains by the collapsing empire then it all makes sense.
The new manufacturing will be Soviet style, centralised, industrialisation.
Using robots not people.
A way of getting past the legacy industry that had built up.
The emerging economies have an inbuilt advantage in not having such drag anchors as they go straight from nothing to the most advanced tech.
The developed world can’t make that transition without first breaking everything and then rebuilding.
That is where the now old first world is.
We can’t maintain the supreme position anymore.
There is no choice, so it is a matter of self isolation from the majority of the emerging humanity. Whilst relying on them to lead the way, which we can copy and fool our golden billion into believing we are still better off than all of them.
One just needs to travel to the outside world and see how far we have fallen behind already.
If we want that advanced tech we are going to have to buy it in.
The future planes, trains and automobiles.
Why invest in a generation of kids to match that?
As long as these who can afford it here can have it.
The rest of us can go hang.
G’dnight all.
Posted by: DunGroanin | Apr 26 2025 21:46 utc | 43
controlled demolition
maybe to further wipe out small biz and deliver to conglomerates
maybe to usher in dastardly wef type policies
certainly nothing to do with trade policy or trumps actual understanding of it given he is just reading off someone's script
Posted by: natrat | Apr 26 2025 21:48 utc | 44
@26 Love Donbass
There are some who think that Scott Bessent in out to crash the USD. Just like he and Soros did to the Pound back in 1992.
The link below takes a deep dive into Bessent and his continuing link to Soros.
David Haggith the author of the Daily Doom. Has some good insights.
Interesting read.
https://www.thedailydoom.com/p/the-deeper-dollar-evidence-of-a-white
Posted by: golddigger | Apr 26 2025 22:43 utc | 45
Correct about the uncertainty shifting investment from manufacturing to speculation in financial markets. It is what happened to me and my company a decade or so ago. Uncertainty, particularly exchange rate uncertainty, forced our company to hedge positions. We became really good at it. So good what we were doing in financial markets dwarfed our risky profits from manufacturing, so we dropped the manufacturing entirely and spend full time consulting and playing financial markets.
People that have the mathematical knowledge to engineer and manufacture technology goods also can quickly learn how to use that mathematics in financial markets. The field is called Financial Mathematics. Together with the mathematics of AI (used to be called Statistical Pattern Recognition) we built our own Generative Large Language Model AI machine.
You can see where this is going.
Posted by: ramAustralia | Apr 26 2025 23:12 utc | 46
"You didn't build that" Obama and "Destroy and Build Back Better" China Joe Biden hitting the accelerator as the car heads toward the cliff, sure didn't create any uncertainty!
Posted by: Blind Bridge Troll | Apr 26 2025 23:19 utc | 47
"But how long will it take to build those new plants? What if the machines needed to build them come from China? How long will it take to find and train new workers? Will they be able to produce at competitive prices?"
I have just read that BYD, a Shenzhen company, China's biggest car manufacturer and the third biggest in the world behind Toyota and VW, is building a new factory up in Henan province to cope with demand which will be the aize of San Francisco.
Dream on, Donald.
Posted by: Walt | Apr 26 2025 23:41 utc | 48
i personally think this redirecting of the titanic is a longer term project that can't be done in a short amount of time.. trump wants to get corporations to build in the usa.. fine... that is not going to happen overnight.. it will take as long as it did in china which began in the 1970's and here we are 50 years later... it is going to take a lot of time.. i am not sure the usa has that kind of time to see this happen... the short sightedness of 4 year mandates of gov't doesn't help either.. thanks for the post b..
Posted by: james | Apr 26 2025 20:39 utc | 35
---------------------------------------
Agreed, with many others here and myself stating about the same.
Reindustrialization has to focus on what will sell in the international market place, produce profits (return of and on capital) and employ labor. Bill Clinton campaigned on decent jobs at decent wages.
Stable tax plans are required for major capital investments, that includes tariffs. Major investments start-ups take quite a while. JD Vance should know.
Overall, the WH has zero credibility. Hard to get any back after all these disastrous moves.
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Apr 26 2025 23:58 utc | 49
Hudson and Wolff pretty much explain how this all works I mean late Finance Capitalism, and China's success/USA manufacturing outsourcing and failure now as a superpower, and why trump's tariffs scam I mean scheme will never/can never work, except to concentrate even more tremendous wealth into the hands of the top 1%
first two links with Nima at Dialogue Works, and the third nnd fourth links to Hudson's blog/website and the transcript of the talk with Ben Norton as well as the video of it
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4G98DeCZcT8
Richard Wolff & Michael Hudson: Trump’s Trade War Collapse: How China Forced a U.S. Retreat
Dialogue Works
and
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oIJx9l6HqjA
Richard D. Wolff and Michael Hudson: China Strikes Back as Trump Ignites New Tariff War!
Dialogue Works
https://michael-hudson.com/2025/04/will-trumps-war-games-backfire/
Will Trump’s Tariff Games Backfire?
Donald Trump’s tariffs are benefiting rich elites at the expense of the majority of the population, argues economist Michael Hudson. He explains how the US trade war on China is isolating the United States and encouraging countries to seek alternatives. Ben Norton hosts the interview.
Transcript
(Intro)
BEN NORTON: Why has US President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on countries all around the world? And in particular, why is Trump waging a trade war on China? What are his real goals?.....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jGsLDQQuzU0
Trump's tariffs hurt the US much more than China - Economist Michael Hudson explains
Geopolitical Economy/Ben Norton
Posted by: michaelj72 | Apr 27 2025 0:44 utc | 50
The American automotive industry is so done.
🇨🇳China's new EV with its own flying vehicle included. No other country can compete with China's innovation. 🚗🚁
1 minute video
https://x.com/commiepommie/status/1916057945139474434
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 26 2025 21:38 utc | 40
Years back GM had profitable subsidiaries in Europe and Australia, being Opel and Holden. Instead of building these companies up though, headquarters sucked all the profits out and made no reinvestment. In Australia they even fudged the books to make Holden appear to be losing money just to get government subsidies. Eventually Opel was sold off and Holden closed. GM like Boeing was taken over by the Wall Streeters, they sucked the companies dry for "shareholder return", corporate America killed off US industry, not China, now they are all just welfare vampires looking for more.
Posted by: Organic | Apr 27 2025 1:54 utc | 51
Posted by: Organic | Apr 27 2025 1:54 utc | 51
########
I remember Holdens from when I lived Down Under decades ago. It was odd to see vehicles with automatic transmissions at the time. Everyone learned to drive "stick" in that part of the world.
If Trump were serious, which he clearly is not, he'd be passing bills, offering incentives for companies to move to America, subsidizing STEM, and passing laws/making rules to hinder private equity parasitism.
Bessent (Treasury) and Lutnick (Commerce) made a lot of their money preying on productive businesses. Trump likes his Oligarchic buddies and has dropped the pretense of being a blue-collar Billionaire.
The midterms are shaping up to be a bloodbath.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 27 2025 2:08 utc | 52
The normal traffic of goods from China will terminate at the west coast on or about May 10. There will be a much reduced need for truckers, in an already broken system.
. . .from American Truckers. . .
Welcome to American Truckers United
The American trucking industry is at a crossroads, facing unprecedented challenges that threaten the livelihoods of American truckers and the safety of our roads. Over the past eight years, an alarming rise in fatal truck crashes coincides with the influx of unqualified, untrained, and unvetted drivers, a direct result of illegal drivers and open borders. This practice, heavily facilitated by brokerage operations, not only undermines the advanced safety technologies designed to make our highways safer but also exploits drivers, forcing down wages and compromising road safety.
American Truckers United is dedicated to advocating for reform, pushing for transparency, accountability, and fair labor practices to restore dignity, safety, and economic justice for American truckers. Join us in this movement to reclaim our roads, ensuring they are driven by those who meet American standards, for the safety and prosperity of all Americans. . .here
Posted by: Don Bacon | Apr 27 2025 2:10 utc | 53
So I am wondering, if Trump is not serious, what is he trying to do?
He half-assed Greenland. Half-assed Ukraine abd is in the process of half-assing Yemen and Iran.
He declared independence, then a week later took most of it back. Does that mean America is enslaved again? LOL
I can understand an agenda I do not agree with, but to me, everything he is doing feels like he's going through the motions and has no real passion for the job.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 27 2025 2:21 utc | 54
The glass windows of Zhengzhou intercity trains.
14-second video
https://x.com/China_Fact/status/1916283079569854876
Like something out of a Neal Stephenson novel.
The West is the third world now.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 27 2025 2:25 utc | 55
@Organic | Sun, 27 Apr 2025 01:54:00 GMT | 51
welfare vampires
Uh, I like that one.
Posted by: persiflo | Apr 27 2025 3:45 utc | 56
Bye bye Amazon & Walmart. Just the facts here. It will soon bite your very own backside, so try to get ready.
Are US Ports Empty and What Impact Does the Tariff Have on Global Shipping? by What's Going on With Shipping? (23min, 4/24/25)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=33kfpNiiAmo
Posted by: blues | Apr 27 2025 4:18 utc | 57
- EVERYONE will suffer under the tariffs. Tariffs are bad for everyone but that's a concept that Trump and his buddies fails to understand. People also don't understand that those imports are subsidizing the US. Think: "Exorbitant Privilege".
Posted by: WMG | Apr 27 2025 4:35 utc | 58
Time for a new word - epsteined, meaning suicided, meaning silenced by state murder.
Posted by: Mo SS ad | Apr 27 2025 4:43 utc | 59
@ Posted by: Organic | Apr 27 2025 1:54 utc | 51
GM is the Michael Jordan of opening and closing subsidiaries. While I think it was a pretty doomed business from the start, they also shuttered their autonomous vehicle subsidiary within the last year. GM also had a head-start in electric vehicles in the late 90s which they blew pretty quick, with the engineers who worked on that project leaving GM to start their own company, which happens to be Tesla Motors. The government, honestly, never should have sold their shares in GM. It would have made a great SEO.
The Obama administration also let the fuck-up CEO make out like a bandit. From Wikipedia:
Wagoner retired with an exit package of over $10 million: $1.65 million in benefits per year for his first five years of retirement, $74,030 per year pension for the rest of his life, and a $2.6 million life insurance policy that can be cashed out at any time.
Imagine making millions of dollars for getting fired. All of that ought to have been confiscated and paid out to laid off GM workers.
Posted by: fnord | Apr 27 2025 4:44 utc | 60
"But how long will it take to build those new plants?
Posted by: Walt | Apr 26 2025 23:41 utc | 48
---
There will be no new plants for a very long time.
The tariff fiasco will trigger a collapse of the dollar. Goldman Sachs' lead economist predicts a 20 to 30 percent fall.
At the same time liquidity will dry up as the US faces more difficulty in refinancing its outstanding debt.
There is a brewing real estate crisis with hundreds of billions of CRE that must be refinanced this year at higher rates. The real estate crisis is spilling over into the housing market where macro conditions have worsened too GFC levels.
All of the above will destroy demand, 'cause nobody will have any money to spend, so there won't be much need for new factories, even if credit was available to finance building them.
Finally, the RoW is unburdened from pulling the yolk of America's Exorbitant Burden, so they will look after themselves first.
It won't be until the RoW runs out of investment opportunities in their home countries until credit will be available to rebuild America.
Posted by: too scents | Apr 27 2025 5:01 utc | 61
China's industrialisation happened during a period of relative abundance of energy and raw materials. The USA's re-industrialisation is during a period where energy is much more scarce. It's going to be an uphill battle.[...]
Posted by: Passerby | Apr 26 2025 21:28 utc | 39
There still is plenty of energy in abundance. Take a look at Germany ... they are sitting on huge coal reserves but they won't use it. They almost certainly have something radioactive they could dig out from under the mountains but they shut down all of their nuclear reactors. Instead they put up solar cells in a country where sunny days are only available a few months every year. Bonkers!
Meanwhile China is building new coal-fired electricity and they recently built that massive dam, and they import gas and oil and uranium ... then build multiple different flavours of nuclear reactors to boot.
Is that because the Chinese are more intelligent than the Germans? No, not at all ... it's because German leaders hate their own people and want to destroy the joint, whereas Chinese leadership at least sees some benefits in national productivity.
Posted by: Tel | Apr 27 2025 5:01 utc | 62
When you've lost Bloomberg:
Weekend EssayAmerica’s Market Exceptionalism Isn’t Coming Back
With the US’s economic prospects waning, free movement of capital is becoming an Achilles’ heel as investors of all stripes start to flee US assets.
April 25, 2025 at 11:30 AM GMT+2
US President Donald Trump’s ‘America First’ economic revolution has quickly turned into ‘America Last’ as far as financial markets go. So many investors have been dumping US assets wholesale that we recently saw equities, bonds and the US dollar all decline in a self-feeding doom loop that hasn’t only hurt the value of American financial assets. If Trump persists, it threatens to cause an extended bear market and a financial crisis. This is a shock to the financial world that received his election with near-jubilation.
and so on ==> https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-25/investors-are-fleeing-us-assets-as-global-financial-crisis-recession-loom?
The Financial Press is nearly universally sell side shilling designed to keep retail investors in the speculation game. The article above could spook the horses.
When Bloomberg says things are bad, they are certainly worse.
Posted by: too scents | Apr 27 2025 5:28 utc | 63
@Tel || 62
Germany built a leading edge fast breeder reactor, which never went online and was decommissioned in the early 90ties for political reasons. Kalkar
Posted by: persiflo | Apr 27 2025 5:29 utc | 64
Likely the old can't see the forest for the trees, or is it can't see the trees for the forest?
Why Trump thinks he and the Republicans can survive this politically is beyond me.
Obviously so.
But how can he change course when he is committed like this?
Presuming he is "committed" is your second mistake. They know what they are doing and why. They planned it.
Some background might help a couple of people.
https://thetricontinental.org/studies-on-contemporary-dilemmas-4-hyper-imperialism/#toc-section-6-2
misc quotes tariffs
Modern imperialism fully inherits the history of the European project’s domination and exploitation of the world. Lenin defines super-profits, a result of modern imperialism, as ‘a surplus of profits over and above the capitalist profits that are normal and customary all over the world’.60
Post-WWI, international capitalist divisions again intensified during the Great Depression (1929–1939), as various imperialist powers locked their economies behind tariffs and other barriers. Before the end of WWII, the US-led reorganisation of the global financial system was agreed to in Bretton Woods in July 1944. The convertibility of the main currencies into the US dollar and the US dollar into gold established the supremacy of the new ‘green gold’. To make sure its regulations were implemented and followed, the International Monetary Fund and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), later, the World Bank, were established. These two institutions have been key pillars of US domination over the Global South since then.
.................
The period from 1945 to 1971 was an expansionary phase of US imperialism. The US did suffer significant political losses during this period, including a number of newly formed socialist projects. However, confident of its own productive supremacy, the US began a radical reorganisation of the global capitalist system after WWII. It dismantled tariffs and other protectionist measures that it deemed unnecessary to its own advancement (but retained subsidy measures that advantaged its own capitalist firms). The post-WWII new ‘globalised’ organisation of world capitalism differed significantly in its international structure from the pre-1945 capitalist system. It achieved a more rapid development of the productive forces than the era of the previous colonial empires.
.................
NATO countries increased the number of their global military interventions but were confronted by a series of defeats such as in Afghanistan, Iraq, and even, to an extent, Syria.
The US decision to expand NATO into Eastern Europe and use Ukraine as a proxy at the centre of the move to control Russia resulted in an important military conflict between nuclear powers.
The US, facing relative economic and political hegemony, began to massively expand the use of sanctions, lawfare, tariffs, and seizure of foreign currency reserves.
To attempt to stop China’s technological advance, the US began using tariffs and protectionism. It began a full-fledged soft power attack on China and started a New Cold War.
Major voices in the US ruling class openly talk of the possibility of using its military hegemony to block China. Since they have also ‘lost’ Russia, at least with Vladimir Putin in power, the US is focused on planning how to complete their historic mission to subordinate Eurasia once and for all. This would ultimately entail the de-nuclearisation and potential dismemberment of both Russia and China.
...................
By 2009, the US began to plan its pivot to Asia to curtail China’s economic growth. Under the Obama period, the US began to move against the World Trade Organisation. This period also marked the increased reliance on tariffs, sanctions, protectionism, and hybrid warfare.
Given that it is now dependent on large scale net capital imports, which by 2022 reached US$ 1 trillion a year, the US has little internal economic ability to provide economic advantages to its Global North or Global South allies.111
Indeed, it needs to continue to attempt to hollow out even more surplus from them.
Under neo-liberalism, the relative autonomy of the US state eroded, and private capital exerted more direct control of much of the state. Today, however, faced with rising international economic threats to the US position, and the failure of neo-liberalism to maintain US economic dominance, the collective political interests of the ruling class are being asserted by an increasingly autonomous state (as opposed to representing the interests of individual capitalist groups). To borrow from Lenin, for the capitalists also, ‘politics must take precedence over economics’.112
Financialisation or accumulation under the phase of monopoly-finance capital is truly a parasitic development aimed at drawing blood from a sponge and marking the structural crisis of capital.
........................
Figure 34 shows that the US has had a long-term overall decline in average growth rate since 1953.
Confronted with this situation the US has subsequently turned to tariffs, economic sanctions, and technology bans, leading to an increasingly protectionist environment. However, despite this economic decline, as already analysed, the US still maintains a military lead over all other states. US Imperialism, therefore, now turns to a growing reliance on force.
[ good luck working anything out in this global house of mirrors and endless disinformation ]
Posted by: William | Apr 27 2025 5:32 utc | 65
Germany built a leading edge fast breeder reactor
Posted by: persiflo | Apr 27 2025 5:29 utc | 64
---
They built one in Detroit too. It didn't go so well.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/We_Almost_Lost_Detroit
Posted by: too scents | Apr 27 2025 5:33 utc | 66
Uncertainty is what keeps financial markets alive.[...]
When volatility prevails real markets will falter.
These are self-contradictory statements.
The financial markets exist precisely for the purpose of allowing risk to be moved around, and it is profitable for the people who have a bit of money they can afford to lose. That's why the whole insurance industry exists ... and there does not appear to be any strange stigma attached to buying insurance for your car or your house.
Well the derivatives traders are doing much the same job ... selling put opinions is selling insurance against a stock price collapse. For some reason, derivatives traders and hedge funds get smeared as dirty and unfair. Look ... there might be bad business practices, but that could just as easily happen selling substandard ice cream as selling naked call options.
If it does happen, we have been told the government regulations will protect us ... don't blame the market participants, blame those regulators for being crap at their jobs. Heck the classic example was Charles Ponzi who operated in an unregulated environment and was found out and busted in less than 12 months ... as compared with Burnie Madoff who operated in a highly regulated market, and achieved high accolades from all sorts of government bigwigs and kept his scam going for years and years, dragged in all sorts of famous people.
Posted by: Tel | Apr 27 2025 5:35 utc | 67
Trump is an utter moron.
I think there are 4 companies who said they would commit to building plants here.
Even so, manufacturing IS NOT coming back here. We don't have the infrastructure to support it. China has entire cities devoted to manufacturing and it took DECADES to build.
This Admin IS NOT about helping Americans, it's about DESTROYING them and stealing everything not nailed down. Why any Magrat believes what the Orange overlord says is beyond me.
Posted by: Kay | Apr 27 2025 5:41 utc | 68
Trump is an utter moron.
I think there are 4 companies who said they would commit to building plants here.
Even so, manufacturing IS NOT coming back here. We don't have the infrastructure to support it. China has entire cities devoted to manufacturing and it took DECADES to build.
This Admin IS NOT about helping Americans, it's about DESTROYING them and stealing everything not nailed down. Why any Magrat believes what the Orange overlord says is beyond me.
Posted by: Kay | Apr 27 2025 5:41 utc | 69
For some reason, derivatives traders and hedge funds get smeared as dirty and unfair.
Posted by: Tel | Apr 27 2025 5:35 utc | 67
---
The reason is simple. Beyond their hedged collars options counterparties have no ability to pay out.
The question to ponder is "how many traders are insufficiently hedged?"
Posted by: too scents | Apr 27 2025 5:43 utc | 70
@too scents || 66
Germany built a leading edge fast breeder reactor---
They built one in Detroit too. It didn't go so well.
mhm.
Posted by: persiflo | Apr 27 2025 5:46 utc | 71
Posted by: golddigger | Apr 26 2025 22:43 utc | 45
#######
Thank you. Bessent does seem to be an elite parasite.
One has to wonder how MAGA signed off on Soros' guy to be in Trump's cabinet.
Someone needs to tell Trump to blink 3 times if he needs rescue.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 27 2025 5:46 utc | 72
In Australia they even fudged the books to make Holden appear to be losing money just to get government subsidies.
Posted by: Organic | Apr 27 2025 1:54 utc | 51
This is standard operating practice. Disneyland Paris has never made a profit, and never will, as long as the French tax rate is higher than the US tax rate.
Whether it's Disneyland Paris, the German car manufacturer Opel, or an IBM subsidiary: once a year you get a bill from HQ for "intellectual property". You're charged for "brand licensing". Or you buy some manuals billed for more than their weight in gold. And presto! all profits are sucked out of the Euro branch to the states.
Posted by: Passerby | Apr 27 2025 6:01 utc | 73
More Doom from Bloomberg:
Private Credit’s Cracks Widened Before TurmoilApril 26, 2025 at 9:00 PM GMT+2
The companies that get private credit loans are looking increasingly wobbly and banks are among those that could eventually be on the hook for losses.
Many companies getting direct loans from private lenders are struggling to produce cash, by at least one key measure: At the end of 2024, more than 40% of borrowers had negative free cash flow from their businesses, the International Monetary Fund warned in a report this past week. That’s up from closer to 25% at the end of 2021.
Borrowers that aren’t generating enough cash flow are at greater risk of defaulting, a particular concern as trade wars lead to fears of economic stagnation.
Market participants are alarmed that the deterioration in debtors’ credit quality has yet to show up in accounting valuations, while a rise in dividend recapitalizations is “further straining borrowers’ debt sustainability,” the IMF wrote.
continues ==> https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-26/private-credit-s-cracks-widened-before-turmoil-credit-weekly
Posted by: too scents | Apr 27 2025 6:16 utc | 74
Is that because the Chinese are more intelligent than the Germans? No, not at all ... it's because German leaders hate their own people and want to destroy the joint, whereas Chinese leadership at least sees some benefits in national productivity.
Posted by: Tel | Apr 27 2025 5:01 utc | 62
Our democratic system seems to put people in power who are good at getting elected, little else.
To our current crop of politicians and captains of industry people, country, religion, or ethnicity are quaint abstract concepts, which matter little. People like that running a country is like a restaurant where the cooks have lost the sense of taste and smell. They are feeling very pleased with themselves, but to everybody else it's a disaster.
Posted by: Passerby | Apr 27 2025 6:17 utc | 75
Posted by: Organic | Apr 27 2025 1:54 utc | 51
When I was a lad, there were five main car manufacturing groups in Britain, and home manufacture produced about 90% of the cars on UK roads. Two were US owned.
Now according to Wikipedia, Ford of Britain operates two manufacturing sites in the UK, in Dagenham (diesel engine production) and Halewood (transmissions). Dagenham was once a big car maker but now it seems no complete vehicles are made in the UK. Similarly, Vauxhall has just closed its main plant at Luton a month ago and just makes electric vans at Ellesmere Port (anybody ever seen one?)
The remaining were British: the British Motor Corporation, Rootes and Standard Triumph, all long long gone of course.
Posted by: Walt | Apr 27 2025 7:00 utc | 76
The reason is simple. Beyond their hedged collars options counterparties have no ability to pay out.[...]
Posted by: too scents | Apr 27 2025 5:43 utc | 70
Have you ever looked at the fine print when you signed an agreement? You see the letters LLC which means "Limited Liability Corporation".
They ALWAYS have the option of bankruptcy ... if that buff guy with "Jr" in his name somehow proves that putting SV40 DNA in your arm caused you to get cancer ... you probably would want to get compensated, right? And you can get compensated, right up until the suppliers declare bankruptcy ... then you get pennies on the dollar.
When Chrysler kept making exceptionally good promises to union workers for brilliant health care and other perks ... they probably knew it was unrealistic ... but when those union workers got older and tried to make use of those generous policies the management simply threw the company into a series of bankruptcies and were somehow smart enough to do it at a time when a left-leaning government was happy to buy out that insolvent wreck.
Limited Liability Corporation you see? Make any promises and then oh well, the CEO is merely an employee ... he doesn't owe nothing.
The moment you make an agreement with an LLC, be that as an employee, or a customer or a supplier, anything else ... you have chosen to agree to this. You decided you wanted it, you may not have understood what you signed up for ... but that's irrelevant.
I go back to the original point: why blame the financial industry when every industry is doing the same thing ... and apparently people like it that way. I mean you can easily see why the shareholders would like it ... but the customers, suppliers and employees all go along happily. They could refuse to deal with such corporations, couldn't they?
Posted by: Tel | Apr 27 2025 7:24 utc | 77
Posted by: persiflo | Apr 27 2025 5:29 utc | 64
Do you know what those reactors were breeding?
The normal fuel for fast flux reactors is U-238, IE depleted uranium. It is bombarded with fast neutrons that get captured by the nucleus and form Pu-239 IE plutonium. The plutonium gets hit with residual slow neutrons and gets split releasing heat. The problem is you wind up with a lot of plutonium as waste like 20-30% as opposed to the worst of U-235 reactors, the CANDU type, where you wind up with about 3%. Outside of general proliferation issues, that I am sure Germany would have no problem with, plutonium is horrifyingly neurotoxic and way more difficult to dispose of or reprocess at those levels of enrichment. Good luck getting Rosatom to deal with your waste.
Thorium reactors are also fast flux type, IE breeder reactors, but the waste is way easier to deal with than a uranium fueled variant. Read up on Hanford Washington if you want to know how much fun it is to deal with them.
Posted by: Badjoke | Apr 27 2025 7:24 utc | 78
Just when you thought the Imperialist ruling class couldn't get more delusional--the lost Ukrainian gamble--we get another jumped up tool of Zios with a new, stupider and even bigger wager: bring China and the world to their knees through tariffs!
On the positive side, I have heard said that Trump is now ready to reverse course on what is effectively a trade embargo on China. I will say that, at least, it appears to take him less time to realize he fucked up than it does for your average true believer Dem.
Nonetheless, the bare minimum political consciousness for any American wage slave at this stage of history is a complete rejection of both Imperialist parties...
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Apr 26 2025 17:47 utc | 17
Thanks for this post, Ahenobarbus. On the 'tariff war', I don't think this has been intentional on Trump's part. More likely it was a clash of cultures, Trump's being, obviously, the wrong sort of culture. He messed up on that.
There are now hopeful signs that Russia is understanding Trump and viceversa. I truly hope China and he can as well. I think we've squawked enough about how terribly stupid Trump's tariff policies have been so far. I hope China, in wisdom, can patiently surmount all the frustrating setbacks. That would be a start on win/win. The US is in a fragile condition, because there is no real industry here any longer. That was the true stupidity. China cannot be blamed, but they did benefit from the foolishness of our leaders. That was China's win/win, an honorable gain.
I apologize on Trump's behalf. He's better than what we had, even if some of those were more polite on the surface of things. Their politeness hid deceit. Trump's impoliteness was a blunder.
Posted by: juliania | Apr 27 2025 7:49 utc | 79
I watched a very enlightening interview with Brian Berletic by Danny Haiphong:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XGEu6bj194g
Just wanted to share this as this covers all the most relevant political events of today like tariffs, China, Russia, Iran.
Posted by: Silent Waves | Apr 27 2025 9:02 utc | 80
Posted by: Dr.Best | Apr 27 2025 8:37 utc | 80
Hamburg uses around 3000 cubic meters of fuel per day in cars, the largest post suez max container ships use 300 cubes a day at top speed. Your numbers suck and you are talking out of your ass on the rest of it.
Posted by: Badjoke | Apr 27 2025 9:29 utc | 81
It is controled demolition. Trump wants the US to fall so his owners can accomplish the great reset and fuse with the EU. The white supremacists need each other.
Posted by: Minaa | Apr 27 2025 10:02 utc | 82
Posted by: Badjoke | Apr 27 2025 9:29 utc | 82
Er!!!! If a container ship uses 300 cubes/day and it takes 10 days to sail there then yes remove one container ship each day and you match car consumption
Posted by: watcher | Apr 27 2025 10:17 utc | 83
Overall, the WH has zero credibility. Hard to get any back after all these disastrous moves.
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Apr 26 2025 23:58 utc | 49
There are now hopeful signs that Russia is understanding Trump and viceversa. I truly hope China and he can as well
Posted by: juliania | Apr 27 2025 7:49 utc | 79
It doesn't matter whether or not the Chinese government understands Trump.
When Trump announced the tariffs, so e Chinese ships en route returned to port, some were redirected, & some dumped their containers first.
That's a lot of losses. Businesses aren't going to trust Trump again any time soon.
Posted by: Mary | Apr 27 2025 11:11 utc | 84
Trump the environmentalist? I thought I'd heard everything when the MAGA spinners went to work with Trump the Subtle and his 4D chess strategy.
Only 21st century western society could be so drunk on its hubris to believe it can affect global climate, even to the point of destroying all life on earth! Give me a break. This is a fairy tale to brainwash school kids on...which our Khmer Rouge inspired education system is doing well.
The sole point of Climate Change and the Homosexual Reign of Terror we've been living in is to divide society. This is why those who run the western world give these minorities full support. Keep the plebs fighting amongst themselves and they'll never dust off the guillotines for the oligarchs.
One drawback to this: the West can never win any kind of war with the Asians because our society is too divided. China, Iran & Russia are not divided societies.
Naturally Globalist 4D chess is to destroy the USA and build back better. This plan concocted by parasites who have never built anything in their life.
Posted by: EoinW | Apr 27 2025 12:06 utc | 85
@Badjoke | Sun, 27 Apr 2025 07:24:00 GMT | 78
Plutonium. Afaik, per definition the "breeder" reactor creates more Pu than it consumes U-235. The reaction would be kept in a mantle of Uranium, further improving fuel efficiency. The logic somewhat resides on the assumption that Uranium is a limited resource. The waste was said to be benign (cool in several hundred years) but they wanted to export something, too. There were large demonstrations against the project. Sorry, I don't really oversee the topic.
A note on nuclear waste in Germany. There was a decades-long debate on the final solution (Endlager), and then a decision to use Salzstock Gorleben for low and medium radioactive waste. People literally went on the barricades over this, but government went ahead anyway saying it'll be safe for 10,000 years. Scientists were scratching their heads about how to properly warn off later generations from the place with signs over such a long period. And then someone used a frontloader to simply dump hundreds of yellow barrels into the ground ... a couple years ago it became clear they would have to get much of the stuff back out again because it's unsafe, after merely a few decades. The Green Party owes much of its early appeal to this kind of frightening tales which, it must be said, became not only true, but far sooner than anyone imagined. There is still no decision about long-time storage of highly radioactive waste. For now it's sitting guarded in Zwischenlager (intermediate storage) above ground.
Cracks in the salt stock, insufficient top layer, connection to groundwater. It was a political decision from the beginning.
Posted by: persiflo | Apr 27 2025 12:23 utc | 86
@Dr.Best || 80
In Germany, combustion engines in Hamburg could continue operating without any restrictions due to CO2 bans if only two container ships did NOT enter the port
The string of golden villas down Elbchaussee started complaining that the exhaust from the boats was smearing on their windows; this helped. Now they have to use Diesel.
I once got caught up in a thick plume protruding from a boat on good speed making the turn into the river. It felt like 60,000 cigarettes at once. I could literally see the plants giving up on their leaves.
OTOH, my sources tell me a modern automotive diesel engine exhausts clearer air than it inhales.
Posted by: persiflo | Apr 27 2025 12:42 utc | 87
Reading all the comments here... it's crystal clear.
Yes, Donald Trump DOES KNOW what he is doing. And maybe many of you don't want to hear it...
...He's "ripping off the bandage", and letting the hard freefall and the resulting crash reshape America in the ultimate collapse, while all the time avoiding a global wide thermonuclear war.
Posted by: Rufus Arrrr | Apr 27 2025 13:05 utc | 88
Look at all the know nothings talking crap about the economy and tariffs again!
Its bad enough that b displays his ignorance, but it clearly encourages the rest of the mental pygmies out there to voice their idiocy.
Stick to war commentary b. Ive heard that on occasion, on your day, you may know something about that.
Posted by: Stu | Apr 27 2025 21:45 utc | 89
Posted by: too scents | Apr 27 2025 5:33 utc | 66
From memory, we have as civilian nuclear accidents in the USA:
- Three Mile island
- Fermi 1 fast breeder in Detroit
- Sodium reactor meltdown in Simi Valley
Posted by: Passerby | Apr 27 2025 22:14 utc | 90
Can't understand why anybody would cry about the woes of banksters. Haven't you given them enough of the common guy's money? Privatized profits and socialized losses? It's bizarre.
Particularly since your bankster buddies are massively increasing foreign capital investment in the US, due to this thing you're shrieking about.
Nice to have the common guy benefiting, rather than bailing out your buddies.
Posted by: seer | Apr 28 2025 11:09 utc | 91
No ships in any of the sea ports in west of the US ?
"Dead Ports"
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/xq-yEMptntc (length: 01:14).
Posted by: WMG | Apr 28 2025 11:29 utc | 92
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Uncertainty undermines investment.
Re-industrialization requires investment.
As usual, Trump says one thing while doing another.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 26 2025 15:17 utc | 1