Neocons Attempt To Stall U.S.-Russia Talks
Negotiations between the U.S. and Russia about the war in Ukraine seem to be losing steam.
Russia has long insisted on a solution of the conflict which removes the root causes of it. It can not allow for Ukraine to become a NATO battering ram at its doorstep. It can not allow a fascist government in Ukraine.
Any solution to the conflict must resolve (at least) those two issues.
The Trump administration wants the Ukraine problem out of its way. It wants to implement a ceasefire to be able to turn away and ignore the festering problem.
Russia won't have that (archived):
On Tuesday, Moscow reinforced its hard-line, maximalist demands when Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov complained that Russia’s demand “to solve the problems related to the root causes of the conflict” was being ignored by the U.S., and “we cannot accept all of this as it is.”As the U.S. overstates its progress in talks, Moscow seems concerned that Trump’s negotiators do not understand how serious it is about these demands, according to [Thomas Graham, senior director for Russia at the National Security Council under the George W. Bush administration and now a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations].
“The question is whether the administration has the patience to continue those negotiations and whether they can conduct the negotiations in ways that can extract concessions from the Russian side,” he said.
"Extract concessions"? By what?
The U.S. has no leverage over Russia. It is the Russian army that is winning on the battlefield in Ukraine. It has ample reserves in soldiers. It is by far outproducing NATO in weapons and munitions. It is stable in political, social and economic terms.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio is threatening Russia with more sanctions (machine translation):
"Now we are not interested in negotiations for the sake of the negotiations themselves - we will not continue this indefinitely. We have a certain amount of time during which we want to understand whether they are ready or not, and this time is already coming to an end. Congress has already started working on a bill for additional sanctions, and pressure from the Capitol will continue to grow, " the US Secretary of State said.According to him, it was important "just to start a dialogue, because we haven't talked for a long time, but now we need to make progress."
The above-mentioned draft law provides for the introduction of new sanctions against Moscow, as well as duties in the amount of 500% on imports for countries that purchase Russian oil, gas, uranium and other products.
In "weeks, not months," we will know if Russia is ready to end the war, Rubio said.
Russia is already under a total of 28,000 individual sanctions. If the U.S. is threatening other countries with sanctions for buying Russian oil they will find ways around it. It is, like the U.S. 'tariffs', just another way of wreaking the global U.S. position.
There are signs that Rubio and his fellow neo-cons in the Trump administration have decided to stall further talks:
Trump's inner circle opposes a phone call to Putin until the Russian leader commits to a full ceasefire in Ukraine, two unnamed administration officials said.Despite Trump saying he plans to speak to Putin days earlier, no call between the two leaders has been scheduled, the unnamed officials said.
It is possible Trump will abruptly decide he wants to speak to Putin, but he has been advised against calling the Russian leader until Moscow communicates they agree to a full ceasefire in Ukraine, the two officials said.
Not talk to Putin and wait for what? Godoh?
There is fortunately a second line of communication between Trump envoy Steve Witkoff and the head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund Kirill Dmitriev. Russia is offering the U.S. very big investment opportunities. This is Putin's carrot while the steady progress of the Russian army in Ukraine is his stick.
Dmitriev, during his visit in Washington, stated that talks were going well but that there are certain powers who want to derail them:
Russian President Vladimir Putin's investment envoy Kirill Dmitriev, who is visiting Washington this week, said on Thursday that unidentified forces were trying to sow tension between Russia and the United States."Today, numerous forces interested in maintaining tension stand in the way of restoring constructive cooperation... These forces are deliberately distorting Russia's position, trying to disrupt any steps towards dialogue, sparing neither money nor resources for this," Dmitriev said on Telegram.
"Opponents of the rapprochement are afraid that Russia and the United States will find common ground, begin to understand each other better and build cooperation both in international affairs and in the economy," he said.
It is obvious that the moves against further negotiations are coming from neo-conservatives, like Rubio, within the Trump administration.
Will Trump be able to disarm them?
Posted by b on April 4, 2025 at 16:15 UTC | Permalink
next page »Waltz's role in inviting THE ATLANTIC's Goldberg to the Signal chat revealed to DJT the leaky sieve elements swiss-cheesing his Cabinet. Disarming the neocons willing to undermine his foreign policy aims & intents will mean identifying them first, then walling them off & marginalizing them.
It's important, therefore, for events to move slowly forward when it comes to managing the end of the Ukraine War---slowly enough for Major Players and wanna-be's to reveal themselves, like Waltz did in his clandestine ties w/ Goldberg.
So Waltz is a leaky sieve, but one can trace his contacts/connections better if he remains in his role. It is hard to believe anyone on DJT's team would trust Waltz again.
Posted by: steel_porcupine | Apr 4 2025 16:26 utc | 2
No military leverage. No economic leverage.
Too bad, so sad.
Womp womp.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 4 2025 16:27 utc | 3
On Air Force One, answering questions off the cuff, DJT said, "In dealing with Putin and Russia, Europe has failed, and I will probably succeed in dealing with Putin and Russia."
DJT was indicating the degree to which the European *partners* will continue to be sidelined as DJT's team pulls the levers w/ the Russian team.
Posted by: steel_porcupine | Apr 4 2025 16:32 utc | 4
The new trope is that the “Russians are dragging their heels,” stalling out the moment when they’ll *have* to submit to a full ceasefire, like recalcitrant children @ the dinner table avoiding the spinach on their plate for as log as possible until they’ll have to open their mouths & eat it.
It’s a bizarre trope coming from the American side, the lead belligerent in the war, trying to act as mediator, armed with enough carrots & sticks to *discipline* the Russians into laying down their arms, when they themselves elaborately weaponized Ukraine as an implement of war against Russia.
Posted by: steel_porcupine | Apr 4 2025 16:34 utc | 5
This political cartoon at Escobar's Telegram speaks volumes.
The SMO will continue until all objectives are met. Plain and simple. They may entertain the US and discuss potential ways to reduce hostilities but Russia holds all the cards. They'll keep pushing the front lines west until they get the security gaurantees they asked for before the SMO started. The US can yell and scream and threaten all they want. It changes nothing and we all know they're not going to do anything past that.
Posted by: Watzov | Apr 4 2025 16:38 utc | 7
Russia's deputy foreign minister Sergey Ryabkov said, “What we see so far is an attempt to devise a framework that would first lead to a ceasefire, as envisaged by the Americans, and then move on to other models and schemes.” Ryabkov said that the plans so far fail to address Moscow’s core demand of resolving the root causes of the conflict. “That aspect is completely missing and it needs to be overcome.”
Meanwhile, as DJT was walking off the golf course following a fine tournament win w/ Finland’s President Stubb, he spoke of how “pissed off” he was @ VVP—-while at the very same moment Russia’s negotiator Sergei Karasin, who was part of the 12-hour Riyadh jaw-fest, was giving an interview on Russia’s national television, saying the “talks haven’t led to any radical breakthroughs yet, but the opportunities are there. It would have been naive,” he emphasized, “to expect any breakthroughs.”
Importantly, Karasin said he expects U.S.-Russian negotiations on Ukraine to continue at least until the end of 2025 or beyond.
Posted by: steel_porcupine | Apr 4 2025 16:38 utc | 8
The Constellation of Forces has already changed.
The War Party in Washington and Brussels haven‘t figured it out yet.
Posted by: Exile | Apr 4 2025 16:39 utc | 9
The neocons are highly organized and their intentions are always clear, i.e., total world domination and conquest. Trump is always confused and has not brought in true realists who are interested in pursuing US interests. Trump claims "America First" and he is pursuing this in two concrete ways: 1) taking a hammer to the systemically corrupt Federal Government that, even if it cuts some important programs, is generally good for the country (I worked in the Federal Government); and 2) he is attempting to substitute tariffs for income tax (an unconstitutional abomination). So he has used his political capital on those two matters so he has almost nothing left for FP. The best he can do is sort-of drag his feet on the neocon agenda but Trump, or any POTUS, simply does not have the power to "trump" the neocons they control Congress (both parties) and the all-important international intel/covert ops community. This is also why pro-Israel policies must always be pursued.
Posted by: Chris Cosmos | Apr 4 2025 16:44 utc | 10
Will Trump be able to disarm them?
Posted by b on April 4, 2025 at 16:15 UTC | Permalink
Trump can't even piss straight.
The talks were planned to fail.
The neocons will win as always.
POTUS after POTUS: all same.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Apr 4 2025 16:45 utc | 11
The number of Russian drone strikes targeting Ukraine has surged by more than 50 per cent since US-led peace talks began in mid-February, Telegraph analysis has found. In the 30 days following Feb 18, when the peace talks began, some 4,776 drone strikes were launched by Russia, compared to 3,148 drone strikes in the 30 days before, according to Ukrainian Air Force Command updates.
Note that the Daily Telegraph is shaping up a certain kind of narrative w/ this super high-level beancounting, the intent of which is to reveal how little Russia actually *wants* peace. Yes, the “brutal, aggressive thug” is dragging his feet & stalling a ceasefire but meanwhile is strafing targets bigly.
Note too that the Daily Telegraph is basing all their analysis strictly on data provided by the Ukrainian Air Force, an intentional & studied one-sided effort. This is how *alternative data* gets created from data.
Posted by: steel_porcupine | Apr 4 2025 16:46 utc | 12
The new trope is that the “Russians are dragging their heels,” stalling out the moment when they’ll *have* to submit to a full ceasefire ...Posted by: steel_porcupine | Apr 4 2025 16:34 utc | 5
The shoe really is "on the other foot" and this just shows it all in stark technicolor. Lacking in experience in dealing with "a poor hand", I predict spectacular failure by the US regime.
Russian President Putin recently mentioned UN intervention in Ukraine. Perhaps it was just a nice way of calling for UN intervention ... in the USA.
They need help and they're governed by idiots.
Lucky for the US regime their NATO allies are also governed by idiots. So it doesn't show as much. lol.
Posted by: NH | Apr 4 2025 16:49 utc | 13
As with every war, and the US should know, there is the "we can't accept that our faithful troops died for nothing," so we have to keep on with this until their ultimate sacrifices won't have been in vain.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Apr 4 2025 16:53 utc | 14
U told us they r about to collapse for months. Who knows what will happen if war continues and Russia has to go forward to Western Ukraine if Ukrainians refuse to give up even with 500k casualties they suffered already. Unlikely but who knows
Posted by: A.z | Apr 4 2025 16:55 utc | 15
Oh there was plenty of neo con war mongers floating around in DC, although DJT just fired 5 of them from the NSC and NSA including Lt. General Tim Haugh from NSA.
Marco Rubio is supposedly a reformed neo con, but I do not believe that for one instant, he was all for the Ukronazis two years ago........
The purge of Soros, Nuland, Blinkenskyy friends needs to continue....the war lovers club......
Posted by: tobias cole | Apr 4 2025 16:55 utc | 16
A ceasefire is the Ukrainian government's best hope for postponing collapse, hence the administration's focus on a ceasefire. At this point, it is not at all obvious to me that Trump is even interested yet in settling Ukraine at all. Centering negotiations through the Kingdom shows an interest in a general settlement in the world, presumably to detach Russia from Iran and indirectly the PRC. (Making Iran weak or dependent is a major blow at Chinese energy, though not I think at all decisive.) I have never been able to see how Russia can't help but make a Ukrainian settlement first, or along with, any US/Russian condominium, even if a powerful faction of Russians see the US/EU as fellow capitalist more compatible with them in the long run than the transitional socialist economy of PRC. Witkoff can possibly serve as a useful second channel, given he may actually have more access to Trump than Rubio dreams of. But that's at best a maybe...and having an official place is still very important. Officially both Witkoff and Dmitriev as third-tier players.
But, who are these supposed neocons? The term was originally devised for a coterie of ex-leftists (mostly Trotskyist) who turned sharply right. The organization that best articulated their goals was I think the Project for a New American Century. Much of their focus was on Iraq regime change. As I recall, much of it was also about Iran, North Korea (the so-called axis of evil, remember) alliance with the Kingdom, the war in Afghanistan, support for the Zionist enterprise in general. There is I think a considerable continuity between neocons and Trump. And one of the big differences, the notorious pivot to China, shows similar continuities between Obama and Trump first term and Biden and Trump now. I'm not sure tagging someone neocon (especially unnamed persons) is anything but an insult. Perhaps a so-called neocon really has morphed into someone who still thinks both Russia and PRC first? But maybe a so-called neocon is someone who still thinks the US is the indispensable nation for giving the world peace through strength? Except, indispensability is a form of American exceptionalism. The thing is, Trump is I think a proponent of American exceptionalism, even if his version wants the subordinates to be properly subservient, especially in paying protection money. And Trump is totally committed to peace through strength. I'm not sure that imagining bat-thinking villains called neocons who were appointed by Trump are really a group undermining Trump.
Posted by: steven t johnson | Apr 4 2025 16:59 utc | 17
Bond yields on 10-year U.S. Treasuries are already falling as a result of the tariffs, nearly a percentage point in fact, which may at first blush seem minor but not when you factor in the U.S. national debt which stands at a colossal $38.5 trillion.
A decrease of even 0.74% has monumental impact.
This is opening up breathing room for the federal budget, setting up trillions in *interest* savings and taking the pressure off inflation.
While markets appear obsessed w/ tariffs, the true headline is the steep drop in bond yields. DJT's team is quietly reshaping the U.S.'s balance sheet, which amounts to a massive refinancing process---and the market is already *pricing* it in.
Posted by: steel_porcupine | Apr 4 2025 17:00 utc | 18
Russia's lead negotiator from the talks on the 24th said he didn't expect negotiations to end with a proper settlement until early 2026 given the pace and complexity. The clear inability or unwillingness by Team Trump to control Zelensky and the Ukraine military is blatantly obvious with Ukraine's daily violations of what it actually agreed. The unwillingness of Team Trump to pull the support plug is just as clear. It appears from their utterances that Team Trump's blind to the messages those two behaviors send to Russia. Sure, there might be some modicum of trust by Putin in Trump as a person, but this situation transcends that issue--why negotiate when the other side can't deliver on what it agrees to? I mentioned that normal relations have yet to be fully restored as there're still snags caused by the Americans for Russia to reestablish its consulates--tasks that were supposed to be accomplished in March.
Trump's neocons need to remove their heads from their exceptionalist asses and realize that the Outlaw US Empire has lost its war against Russia and thus there will be no concessions made by Russia. And from what can be discerned so far, no concession of merit has been made by the losing side, which is where all the concessions will come from. But without the ability to control what Ukraine does, any concession by the Empire will be false. And that's why the current negotiations will fail as Team Putin has foreseen.
So america got a million slavs killed and Russia offers minerals and "very big investment opportunities" as a reward? I mean, the legally and ecclesiastically enforced superior ethnicity gets richer, but what makes ordinary Russians want to go along with this? Apathy? Fear?
Posted by: Jack M | Apr 4 2025 17:11 utc | 20
All SMO objectives must be met and will be met...........
If they are not met then Russia will be toast, and the neo cons will have won.
So I do not expect anything other than a full blown RF offensive push this spring in the dry season, there is really no other alternative.
Go for the gold, no other option...........
Posted by: tobias cole | Apr 4 2025 17:13 utc | 21
While markets appear obsessed w/ tariffs, the true headline is the steep drop in bond yields. DJT's team is quietly reshaping the U.S.'s balance sheet, which amounts to a massive refinancing process---and the market is already *pricing* it in.
Posted by: steel_porcupine | Apr 4 2025 17:00 utc | 18
First step to understanding the tariffs issue:
"There is no commodity that can truly be said to be “Made in America” or in any single country. Every item produced today—from the simplest everyday consumer items to automobiles and the most advanced developments in computer technology and artificial intelligence—is the outcome of a global production process within an internationally integrated economic system."
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Apr 4 2025 17:20 utc | 22
A practical solution for Putin:
1. Phone Big Ears.
2. Ask him if his ears are working?
3. Give him 7 days to call off his Yankee & Eurotrash jew$lave$.
4. Warn him that if he fails to comply Tel Aviv will be Nuked.
And 75% of the World's mysteriously illogical (diversionary) conflicts will grind to a halt within a month..
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Apr 4 2025 17:22 utc | 23
"...as well as duties in the amount of 500% on imports for countries that purchase Russian oil, gas, uranium and other products."
You mean the US is going to tariff itself? How does that work?
Posted by: forceOfHabit | Apr 4 2025 17:26 utc | 24
Posted by: steven t johnson | Apr 4 2025 16:59 utc | 17
The neocons united with the old Democratic Party faction that featured "humanitarian intervention" by the US Empire. This is why the neocons are so powerful--they are well-organized, highly ideological (the US must conquer the globe) and bi-partisan. They are deeply embedded not just in Washington but Europe as well. Trump may differ with their globalism but he can't really oppose them completely.
Posted by: Chris Cosmos | Apr 4 2025 17:27 utc | 25
There is I think a considerable continuity between neocons and Trump. And one of the big differences, the notorious pivot to China, shows similar continuities between Obama and Trump first term and Biden and Trump now.
...
The thing is, Trump is I think a proponent of American exceptionalism, even if his version wants the subordinates to be properly subservient, especially in paying protection money. And Trump is totally committed to peace through strength. I'm not sure that imagining bat-thinking villains called neocons who were appointed by Trump are really a group undermining Trump.
Posted by: steven t johnson | Apr 4 2025 16:59 utc | 17
That's the thing. People are focused on Trump and don't realize that they are still dealing with the Empire.
There's no change in goals – the only change is the face and the methods. It has always been America First and it will still be America First even when Homer Simpson takes over the presidency.
There won't be peace in Ukraine. The goal is still Full Spectrum Dominance and these talks are just a way to make Europe take over the mess while the US re-focuses. Rubio reassured European allies just yesterday that the US has no intention of leaving NATO, go figure, it was all just a psyop to make them spend more on weapons...
Posted by: Zet | Apr 4 2025 17:29 utc | 26
It is not obvious to me that the "keep fighting Russia" crowd is strictly neo-cons. The EU has its oar in paddling hard for continuing the conflict as do other liberals across the Western spectrum.
To end the Ukraine conflict the agitators will must be broken. Hillary Clinton said "We have to bring them to heel". That is the dialog that they understand.
These people must be thoroughly humiliated. Only after they have met their shame can they be pacified.
Posted by: too scents | Apr 4 2025 17:32 utc | 27
Trump wants to make a grand bargain. He'll hand Ukraine on a platter to Russia provided that they stay uninvolved in the coming war with Iran. That's the only way that the US can "win" a war with Tehran. A ground campaign is out of the question, so Trump needs a free hand to bomb Iran into submission, regardless of how long it takes or how big the bombs are. Russia is the only country that could spoil that plan.
Posted by: Bydlo | Apr 4 2025 17:35 utc | 28
……While markets appear obsessed w/ tariffs, the true headline is the steep drop in bond yields. DJT's team is quietly reshaping the U.S.'s balance sheet, which amounts to a massive refinancing process---and the market is already *pricing* it in.
Posted by: steel_porcupine …..
Well said spot on
Posted by: Exile | Apr 4 2025 17:35 utc | 29
The Russian Federation__People’s Republic of China__Islamic Republic of Iran (RCI) strategic partnership is ironclad.
The ceasefire talks have reached a stalemate because the US of A have recently discovered that they shall never be able to break the RCI alliance.
On the sidelines, the Russian Federation (RUF) is actively expanding ”mutual trust ties with the majority of global states, including the People’s Republic of China (PRC), the Republic of India (RoI), the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI), the Democratic People’s Republic of North Korea (DPRK), as well as CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States) countries. In Africa, the Sahel States are also becoming a friendly and strong ally to the RUF.
These ties include a comprehensive menu of partnership and strategic cooperation at an unprecedented level of mutual trust and respect of nations’ sovereignty leading to further expansion and deepening of friendly ties in all areas.
Many countries in waiting aspire to joining the BRIICS+ as soon as possible.
Posted by: pepe | Apr 4 2025 17:44 utc | 30
Let us, in-cynically, propose a two-state-solution to the ceasefire negotiations. One state for the Ukro-phobes. We will call it the Annexed Territory. And a second state for the Russo-phobes. They will, no doubt call it a Democratic State of something-or-other. The ceasefire will flow naturally from this arrangement.
Posted by: Nothingburgers | Apr 4 2025 17:49 utc | 31
The question is...
How long will Russia tolerate the attacks on its energy facilities? Either Trump continues to allow them to do so and supports them with the coordinates of the facilities, or the cokehead ignores Trump. The latter would be a poor reflection. But I'm guessing the former, because Wiesbaden will continue to provide data. It wouldn't be bad if Russia shut down the spy satellites, thus significantly disrupting their reception, as well as Starlink. Trump's advisors also seem to be telling him the truth, that with the tariffs and war plans, he could also massively damage the US, and that's probably what will happen. Because countries must realize that any trade with the Americans leads to dependency and becomes vulnerable to blackmail. As we can see now. A ceasefire on Trump's terms is tantamount to capitulation. Because, like now, the cokehead won't abide by it, while Putin keeps his feet still. So then the West will declare that Russia is not complying with the agreement.
.
And this cokehead (Sylenski) is currently showing Trumph to the world by showing EVERYONE how he's keeping the "ceasefire" against attacking GERMS energy plants.
Trumph is the asshole here who doesn't realize it's a ceasefire...
If someone ever opens his eyes, Sylenski will get to know the narcissist Trumph... But right now, he hasn't even understood how Sylenski is showing him up.
.
But okay, as long as the Americans provide the target coordinates or have them delivered via England... they don't want a ceasefire at all...
They're just telling the world that, the mob.
Posted by: berthold | Apr 4 2025 17:50 utc | 32
Ho no ! Michald Gorbatrump is again sabotaged by the Senate-Suprem !
Anyway ...
C'mon , what the US is in dire need right now is a Stalinian purge at the top. Guantanamo has not the adequate weather, what about Anchorage ?
Posted by: Savonarole | Apr 4 2025 17:53 utc | 33
Posted by: Nothingburgers | Apr 4 2025 17:49 utc | 31
Your 'solution' solves none of the existing problems. Think again.
Posted by: Jams O'Donnell | Apr 4 2025 18:04 utc | 34
"It is not obvious to me that the "keep fighting Russia" crowd is strictly neo-cons. The EU has its oar in paddling hard for continuing the conflict as do other liberals across the Western spectrum."
---
Exactly
It is a coalition formed by
(I) the grandchildren of the Polish-Ukrainian Yiddish people who have held the reins of the Western empire since 1963/67 and openly since 1997, plus
(II) London's old and deep hatred of Russia and
(III) the European contempt for the Slavs now recycled in the Yiddish-Liberal-Big-Dream on a global scale: the dream of mixed and diverse multitudes (peasants) diluted national identities, and a supremacist oligarchy above all, in fact the speech was: - servants, do not be 'racist', you have to respect each other, we despise you all equally
Posted by: Simon | Apr 4 2025 18:04 utc | 35
Trump’s Rasputin …
In Trump 1.0 Bannon more or less fulfilled that role ...
The pool of crazies has multiplied during the last 8 years, I already had mentioned Stephen Miller, but today a shooting star has emerged once again ... Laura Loomer
Last year I covered her as “Trump's Loomer Agent Provocateur”
This week she runs the Cabinet meeting to clean house of Biden’s suspects such as Neocons … disloyal to the President.
Trump Fires 6 N.S.C. Officials After Oval Office Meeting With Laura Loomer
Posted by: steven t johnson | Apr 4 2025 16:59 utc | 17
I'm continually amazed by the number of US citizens who are obsessed by Leon Trotsky.
There's something pathalogical about it. I could go on about Trotsky and (the misinterpretation of) his views, but the nub of the matter is that a 'Trotskyist' who becomes a 'Neo-liberal' is no longer a Trotskyist - he is now a Neo-Liberal. Incidentally, there is no connection between these positions, except possibly a warped and very personal trajectory, aided by the distorting lens of US capitalist imperialism.
Posted by: Jams O'Donnell | Apr 4 2025 18:12 utc | 37
……While markets appear obsessed w/ tariffs, the true headline is the steep drop in bond yields. DJT's team is quietly reshaping the U.S.'s balance sheet, which amounts to a massive refinancing process---and the market is already *pricing* it in.
Posted by: steel_porcupine …..
Well said spot on
Posted by: Exile | Apr 4 2025 17:35 utc | 29
Yes. Agree that looking into a massive near-US fiscal black hole leads to the attempt to better refinance massive debt is a key part of their 'strategy' ..... but
... can anyone explain to me why the 10 yr has fallen from near 5 to almost 4 in no time?
Posted by: Don Firineach | Apr 4 2025 18:16 utc | 38
The US needs to lower the trade deficit. How can it do this with Europe? By selling some LNG? But that is only minor. No it wants to massively sell weapons. But therefore they need an enemy that is perceived as an active and imminent threat. If the military in Ukraine would completely collapse and Russia installs a democratic elected new president in Ukraine, what would then happen? We would gradually move to normalisation, like it has always happened in the past. Therefore the emphasise on a cease fire. The so called clash between Europe and the US of the last few months, is all theatre, very well rehearsed during Macrons and Stammers visit to Trump. Trump wants to gain the trust of Putin and then convince him on a Minsk 3. Now that this is apparently not working they will drive up the confrontation. Russia offering the US some financial incentives is nothing compared to the trillions of what Europe has to offer. The crash in the oil price, very well coordinated with the tariffs and the production increase of opec is also no coincidence.
Posted by: hubert | Apr 4 2025 18:18 utc | 39
The concern has to be whether or not there is anyone in the 'Ukraine' who will in place of Zelensky be able to be reasoned with from the russia side. I think no.
Neither am I particularly interested in UN peacekeepers or Poland taking over bits of the west etc. as they simply arent realistic goals.
The war will have to be won with te complete capitulation of Ukraine, and unfortunately that means a serious level of escalation.
Posted by: Night Tripper | Apr 4 2025 18:19 utc | 40
Bond yields on 10-year U.S. Treasuries are already falling as a result of the tariffs, nearly a percentage point in fact, which may at first blush seem minor but not when you factor in the U.S. national debt which stands at a colossal $38.5 trillion.
A decrease of even 0.74% has monumental impact.This is opening up breathing room for the federal budget, setting up trillions in *interest* savings and taking the pressure off inflation.
While markets appear obsessed w/ tariffs, the true headline is the steep drop in bond yields. DJT's team is quietly reshaping the U.S.'s balance sheet, which amounts to a massive refinancing process---and the market is already *pricing* it in.
Posted by: steel_porcupine | Apr 4 2025 17:00 utc | 18
Not convinced.
When the stock market has a fall, the rugged individualist wealth creators of Wall St. always run screaming into the Treasury market.
Once the bottom is wiped they will timidly cycle out again.
Those trillions wiped off the value of shares didn't just disappear, it sought safe haven under the faith and credit of uncle Sam.
Time will tell...
Posted by: ChatNPC | Apr 4 2025 18:20 utc | 41
Posted by: steel_porcupine | Apr 4 2025 17:00 utc | 18
You have to factor in the second-order effects, though. Tariffs may raise revenue, but huge stock market losses will reduce capital gains taxes, and shrinking corporate profits mean lower corporate taxes.
Then there is the real possibility that we're already in a recession in the US, and the labor market goes Tango Uniform by summer. That means higher spending on social safety nets like unemployment, food stamps, and block grants for gumbint cheese.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Apr 4 2025 18:22 utc | 42
In short, this whole issue is a discussion between Sadducee-type Zionists (and their lackeys) and Pharisee-type Zionists (and their vassals)
What's incomprehensible about this whole affair is that Moscow's respect for the barbaric regime of the Levant founded (1917-) by violent Polish and Ukrainians emigrants left Moscow with no good leverage to play the Monstrous Ukrainian Gambit (1997-, 2008-, 2014-)
Posted by: Simon | Apr 4 2025 18:24 utc | 43
[email protected] would Russia nuke Tel Aviv after giving the Aparthied State free hand to do as it pleases from the River to the Sea, might as well toss in the Caspian Sea they'll be there soon enough.....there is no Putin solution, he doesn't have the Hazelnuts to pull it off, and as an aside, there's 1.2 million Russian squatters looking for a piece of Trump Plaza Gaza in Occupied Palestine..... actually the safest place on the entire planet for Russians is Tel Aviv. It was barely touched during the last big Resistance go around, so totally safe for many years to come....
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Apr 4 2025 18:33 utc | 44
One. I've been reading for a very long time how Ukraine is finished and can't last another month before totally collapsing. Two. America is a Peace Loving country now and is trying its best to end the war. Does anyone believe either of these two statements?
Posted by: DenisSaintDenis | Apr 4 2025 18:34 utc | 45
... can anyone explain to me why the 10 yr has fallen from near 5 to almost 4 in no time?
Posted by: Don Firineach | Apr 4 2025 18:16 utc | 38
*******************
During times of instability, such as Banks in Japan dropping over 20% value in one week, there is a flight of money to safety. As bad as a situation that the US has, it is still the gold standard when it comes to Government Debt. It is currently about a guaranteed return OF YOUR money, not the RETURN ON your money. Since more people are looking to go to what is considered a "safe" investment there is competition over the US Treasuries, thus the interest rate keeps falling.
It is the main thing people against the tariffs don't understand. The US is
1. A net exporter of energy
2. A net exporter of Food
3. The largest consumer of stuff and importer on the planet.
4. Has a very large Military backed with thousands of nuclear weapons.
I would also note that on this planet ONLY the US and Russia are able to be true Autarky Nations. If they desire, they can easily become completely self-sufficient and provide all of the food, energy, and stuff they need.
You either need the US to provide you energy, food, protection, and/or you need our spoiled citizens/consumers to buy your stuff. While things may get bad in the US with shortages, supply chain issues, etc etc things will get much worse for those who need one of the 4 above.
Posted by: TundraTide | Apr 4 2025 18:35 utc | 46
The Trumpeting Elephant, or whoever writes his script "suggestions" is fast becoming caught between a rock (Russian adamant stance of not too subtle certainty) and a hard place (his Talmudist controllers).
Likely that Russian stolid hold on all the Aces and Faces will not be upset by any joker. Yet, Trump's ego abhors looking like a loser in this grudge match.
Interesting times.
Posted by: aristodemos | Apr 4 2025 18:42 utc | 47
Dimetriev's press release slaps down talks of Russia wanting sanctions relief. He says only Western countries and companies stand to benefit if sanctions lifted.
Ouch!
Posted by: Suresh | Apr 4 2025 18:45 utc | 48
karlof1@1637 Apr.4
Aha! The Cartooniverse take on the universe has a way of concentrating the parts into a whole. Thanks to you for sharing and for Pepe's cartoonist.
Posted by: aristodemos | Apr 4 2025 18:48 utc | 49
Posted by: steel_porcupine | Apr 4 2025 17:00 utc | 18
Treasuries falling yields are generally the reaction to stock market falling.
Anyway it escapes me why investors could consider us bonds as safe.
Posted by: Mario | Apr 4 2025 18:51 utc | 50
Posted by: Oui | Apr 4 2025 18:11 utc | 36
#################
Ms. Loomer is mentally ill and a hardcore Zionist. I remember her as a young reporter in 2015, trying to sleep with Trump-adjacent young male online influencers at parties.
It's wise to stay as far away from her as possible. She glows, and she is probably someone's agent.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 4 2025 18:54 utc | 51
ChrisCosmos@1644
When and if Trump has his "come to Jesus" moment, he would realize that he utterly needs a realist in his most intimate circle. Like nobody else in the public mirror Col. (ret.) Douglas MacGregor is an individual I have long held...since T's first go-round...should be either the Secretary of State or of Defense. That is highly improbable as a scenario, but such a move would restore a rapidly advancing tarnish on DJT's public image and perception.
MacGregor would be the only actual adult in the Cabinet.
Posted by: aristodemos | Apr 4 2025 18:55 utc | 52
Ahenobarbus@1720 Apr. 4
"...an internationally integrated economic system". Nailed it.
Posted by: aristodemos | Apr 4 2025 18:59 utc | 53
@ Don Firineach | Apr 4 2025 18:16 utc, who asked "... can anyone explain to me why the 10 yr has fallen from near 5 to almost 4 in no time?"
Don: take a look at this chart, which covers the last 2 years of 10-yr bond yields. High point was 4.8, now we're at 4.06. There have been major swings over that 2 year duration; swings with slope (rate of change) at least what we're seeing now.
If the 10 year gets to mid-3's in the next few weeks, well, that'll be different. Too soon to tell.
But here's some interesting perspective on what drives the 10-year bond yield down:
"“What appears to be causing the 10-year Treasury rate to decline is slower expectations on economic growth and perhaps increased risk of a recession,” Wachter said.
That quote was from early march 2025. Think about how the prospects for economic growth have changed in the interim.
It might also be that stocks are rotating into bonds (demand up, yield down) since the stock market seems likely to correct some more. Lot of stock market value got taken off the table lately.
Here's an article that tells that story.
Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | Apr 4 2025 19:01 utc | 54
NSA director General Timothy Haugh dismissed after Trump’s meeting with right-wing influencer Laura Loomer. The Washington Post reports.
The USA has invested hundreds of billions in the war against Russia. Assume the war lost. The question then becomes: how do we get our money back? The answer seems to be: if we can't loot Russia, we always can loot the allies.
- try to have Ukraine pay back the money.
- ask more money of NATO allies
- tariffs
All three proposals are similar: "Give me back my dollars".
Posted by: Passerby | Apr 4 2025 19:04 utc | 56
You mean the US is going to tariff itself? How does that work?Posted by: forceOfHabit | Apr 4 2025 17:26 utc | 24
It will be all fun'n'games when Russia decides to retaliate by banning uranium exports to the USA.
Posted by: ThirdWorldDude | Apr 4 2025 19:05 utc | 57
S. Karaganov sorts it all out in 7 mins at the BBC
Former Kremlin advisor says 'best possible outcome is Ukraine’s total capitulation' | BBC News
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RAaSaqZCBg8&t=1s
# @TundraTide | Apr 4 2025 18:35 utc | 46
Thanks for that - all those running for safety and competing for the treasury note lowers the rate ....
Posted by: Don Firineach | Apr 4 2025 19:06 utc | 58
This situation was entirely predictable, the Kremlin/Putin fought a slow war of attrition [to the applause of their western-fanboys] which allowed the globalists in DC/London/Brussels/Paris/Berlin enough time to foist the inglorious ending of the war onto Trump. Regardless of the tremendous human cost, this greatly amuses globalists/Trump-haters and plays to Trump's weakness; his vanity requires he appear as a great leader and not be branded a loser by globalist/Trump-haters.
The Kremlin's willful inability to foresee the political circumstances that would occur should the spring/summer/fall 2024 polls prove wrong and Trump defeat [what's-her-name-here] is their fault alone. Yes, in the short term, more Russian soldiers would have died had Russia's high command made an effort to achieve a fait accompli prior to 20 Jan 2025 but, that was a penny-wise-pound-foolish decision that'll yield a much higher causality toll in the end. Sad, to watch globalist and their fellow travelers, Trump-haters have their hazelnuts pulled out from the fire but, it is what it is.
Posted by: S Brennan | Apr 4 2025 19:06 utc | 59
I doubt the Russian leadership is holding its breath in regards to Trump. Trump is totally unreliable, to every single party be it friend or foe. Trump is using Russia as a stick to slap the EU into giving more concessions (increased military spending of at least 5% of GDP (on US weaponry)) and Russia doesn't mind being that stick as it sows division between the emperor and its vassals.
The war will follow its course, regardless of Trump's phony show. The US empire will keep pumping its massive flow of high tech weapons and indispensable intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition, and reconnaissance into Ukraine, the kakistocratic EU economically will keep bleeding dry until it's a corpse, the Ukrainian (conscripted) soldiers effectively mere meat will keep dying, maimed and function as organ cattle and the Russians waging attritional warfare will keep gaining ground until Ukraine finally snaps.
Posted by: xor | Apr 4 2025 19:13 utc | 60
Treasuries falling yields are generally the reaction to stock market falling.
Anyway it escapes me why investors could consider us bonds as safe.
Posted by: Mario | Apr 4 2025 18:51 utc | 50
US investors investing in US ....
... and as noted by others above - a more healthy fiscal outlook on servicing all those trillions of debt ..
... beginning to make some sense.
Posted by: Don Firineach | Apr 4 2025 19:13 utc | 61
Posted by: ThirdWorldDude | Apr 4 2025 19:05 utc | 57
#######
Russia has also been locking down Uranium supplies in Africa.
The West is playing for today. Russia and China are positioning for the future.
One day, America will wake up and realize that it has lost, and it will be too late to do anything about it.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 4 2025 19:19 utc | 62
Posted by: Mario | Apr 4 2025 18:51 utc | 50 Why US treasuries? Because it is backed by the US military, the still significant role of the US in world economy and the relentless remorseless commitment of the US government to the wealthy. Internationally, the local capitalists have the problem of their working classes posing a bigger threat to their local governments than the US working class does to its. In the case of iron dictatorship reliant on naked violence, that is intrinsically unstable in general and the local iron man poses a potential threat to themselves, if they have a falling out. Safe havens like USTs are about saving money, not about interest income, as correctly pointed out above @46 Tundra Tide
Posted by: steven t johnson | Apr 4 2025 19:20 utc | 63
…. Why US treasuries ?……
Because Fund Managers are never ahead of the curve.
Posted by: Exile | Apr 4 2025 19:25 utc | 64
@Tom Pfotzer | Apr 4 2025 19:01 utc | 54
Thanks very much Tom. Very informative. I now get the 'growth-scare narrative' as well.
Posted by: Don Firineach | Apr 4 2025 19:46 utc | 65
Dimetriev's press release slaps down talks of Russia wanting sanctions relief. He says only Western countries and companies stand to benefit if sanctions lifted.
Ouch!
Posted by: Suresh | Apr 4 2025 18:45 utc | 48
President Putin's speech to Russian industrialists recently makes the position on sanctions clear - basically, assume that they will continue and attempts to damage RF by the US/West/NATO will continue into the future so 'plan accordingly'. Available on karlof1 subtrack - well worth reading.
Sanctions 'relief' from West is low on RF negotiation agenda ... the roots - the roots and nothing but the roots of the conflict .... The Karaganov option - total capitulation
Posted by: Don Firineach | Apr 4 2025 19:56 utc | 66
Having lost Economic supremacy to China, lost military supremacy to Russia, having lost to Afghanistan and the Yemenis and with a strong likelihood of losing Israel in the ME its reputation to Gaza and losing AI to China, US is down to its last asset. Its deficit.
It takes some imagination to think of a Trade deficit of around $1 trillion a year as an asset rather than as a subsidy to (mostly to the very rich) Americans to buy an additional $1trn foreign goodds through the Fed printing cash.
But then what else does the US have going for it now?
Posted by: Michael Droy | Apr 4 2025 19:59 utc | 67
thanks b... i doubt trump can ''disarm'' them... Kirill Dmitriev commentary at the end at bang on is my guess...
Posted by: james | Apr 4 2025 20:01 utc | 68
290 / 5.000
No one in the West wants peace. The game is simply how to shift the blame (preferably onto Russia) so that the population accepts further disadvantages and further armament, even to the point of open war. (Western "logic": since Russia isn't backing down, it shows that it wants to attack us.) Everyone wants war, but in such a way that it can be presented as necessary defense.
Posted by: smartfox | Apr 4 2025 20:05 utc | 69
Karaganov continues to try to educate the British ... 20 mins
Russia will 'crush the will of European elites', former Kremlin adviser says | LBC
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ux7MIIU65PY
Posted by: Don Firineach | Apr 4 2025 20:09 utc | 70
Alastair Crooke thinks that the talks between the US & Russia are progresssing (below the radar).
Posted by: WMG | Apr 4 2025 20:23 utc | 71
MacGregor would be the only actual adult in the Cabinet.
Posted by: aristodemos | Apr 4 2025 18:55 utc | 52
Totally agree, but his appointment to anything is completely and utterly out of the question because he is not a Zionist. Trump's guarantee of staying alive lies with the Zionists as it did in his first term. Power is power and the Zionists hold the whip hand in Washington and have for decades.
Posted by: Chris Cosmos | Apr 4 2025 20:23 utc | 72
Putin’s helping Trump and Trump’s helping Putin, but both can’t be publicly be seen to be doing so, and given that the latter has mastered the art of weaponising people’s preconceptions about him to his advantage, whilst the former can control what information is released, we won’t know what end state they are working towards, until it happens.
Posted by: Milites | Apr 4 2025 20:27 utc | 73
"This is also why pro-Israel policies must always be pursued"
@Chris Cosmos | Apr 4 2025 16:44 utc | 10
Pro-Israel policies happen because Israel is an anglosaxon elite project from the start
The reason more things happen now is because the rest of the world now has more leverage.
Otherwise the normal operation of the project is determined by some basic conditions:
That the bankers are not to fear that Israel loses just has to struggle a bit. When there is a real threat and the anglosaxons fear that the bankers will not remain their lojal coworkers, things have to heat up like they do now. I am not suggesting that the bankers have openly shown such intentions but the anglosaxons expect that they may come to that. However everything Israel does may be seen as similar to what the colonists of north america have done. Including the comparison between a fake religion imposed on the 'indians'. A religion that was bad for them. While Hamas are a different species being an offspring of the Muslim Brotherhood the commonality is that MB too has its origin closely tied to the anglosaxon intelligence and other europeans.
Dont forget that Hamas took part in Syria to fight against Assads side. Thierry Meyssan pointed out that some subset of Hamas broke with that background and may actually have acted with a more normal lojalty to the Palestinians.
The reason why this comment seems wrong to some anglosaxons is that they avoid to touch the circumstance that Great Britain designed every aspect in their own geopolitical interest. This includes their influence on the neocons.
History as it is usually discussed for this context is completely inadequate. And I doubt that anglosaxons are all ignorant about it though I cannot estimate what portion knows more than they pretend or whether it is honest ignorance.
Posted by: petergrfstrm | Apr 4 2025 20:34 utc | 74
I highly recommend this interview - R. Desai and S. Karaganov [106 mins for a serious window into RF Foreign Policy ...
Introduced by R. Sakwa
Russia's foreign policy with Sergei Karaganov
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ens6hTc94is
Posted by: Don Firineach | Apr 4 2025 20:37 utc | 75
Michael Droy | Apr 4 2025 19:59 utc | 67
Having lost Economic supremacy to China, lost military supremacy to Russia, losing AI to China
---
I feel like a guy in the back of the room quietly hinting that a more cicumspect person would perhaps check their assumptions before taking such strong positions.
Where many analysts lose the big picture is by misunderstanding human nature. They either ignore or don't really consider personal motivations, thereby consistently failing to accurately project outcomes.
There's also a certain bias that even good analysis like B seem to exhibit without realizing theyre just revealing more about themselves rather than making a point.
Speaking of which, here's my point: Who do you think comprises the leading researchers, scientists and entrepreneurs in the USA? Why aren't they in their home countries? Why are those with a good idea in China and India eager to put it into practice in the USA?
Remember folks, greed is good. There's not a person alive who doesn't want more money, fancy cars, a big house, hot wife/GF, etc. And where's the best shot of pulling off this outrageous fortune?
So, consider the guy whispering to you quietly: think. Think big, check your bias.
Posted by: Markw | Apr 4 2025 20:40 utc | 76
Thanks Don @ 60
Yes I did read Karlof1's report and pushed it on 1 of the earlier thread.
Worth repeating as this is crucial to understanding the Russian mindset now to any future Western dealing.
S Brennan still flogging a dead horse?
Posted by: Suresh | Apr 4 2025 20:50 utc | 77
Markw @76
All fine and good until the Empire's carcass looses its shine.
Of course, people's perceptions tend to lag behind changes in material conditions, so many people who don't know any better still think of the USA as that "Shining City on the Hill". They soon figure out though that the "shine" is just the glare of security floods (necessary because of the growing herds of feral lumpen criminals) reflecting off steaming heaps of fresh feces.
China already offers a better quality of life for more of its population than the US, and opportunities for bright and industrious people abound there. There is a reason why Chinese AI has gone from nothing to trouncing American AI in just a couple years, for example, and why the Xiaomi SU7 stands head-and shoulder over any and every American EV.
Truth is, while you were sleeping China leapfrogged past America. Way past America. It will still take a few more years for everyone's perceptions to catch up with this reality, but it is a reality that is breaking through for millions of Americans even as we chat in this forum (remember Rednote? It is still opening eyes).
Posted by: William Gruff | Apr 4 2025 21:07 utc | 78
Posted by: steven t johnson | Apr 4 2025 19:20 utc | 63
It seems it didn't worked very well with Nazis in third Reich and they were shure an iron dictatorship and shure a damn powerful army at the time and for some time.
I'll buy popcorn's and wait how this play out.
Posted by: Mario | Apr 4 2025 21:07 utc | 79
Posted by: S Brennan | Apr 4 2025 19:06 utc | 59
————————
I suggest you to apply for a job in Russia MoD, since you know so well what should be done.
For sure you better master the overall picture with all the pros and cons of what you believe.
In French this is called « Il n’y a qu’à », which translates to « You just need to ».
Armchair general.
Posted by: scc | Apr 4 2025 21:13 utc | 80
still flogging a dead horse? - Suresh 77
No, my post at 59 post is just reminding Russo-fan-boys that they've been repeatedly wrong on the brilliance of destroying endless numbers of ex-ukrainia's conscripts who are..forced into the frontline-meatgrinder by the true Nazis who, remain in the rear. All the men who could rebuild the country are being killed and maimed all while all the quislings that begot this tragic war will escape wealthy and unharmed...such is the "brilliance" of warfare by slow attrition.
And yeah, I think people who don't understand that the object of war is not to turn a country into ruins but, to impose one's will deserve to be reminded of their idiocy.
Posted by: S Brennan | Apr 4 2025 21:13 utc | 81
No, my post at 59 post is just reminding
Posted by: S Brennan | Apr 4 2025 21:13 utc | 81
################
Gammas are gunna gamma.
Secret kings are always posting for the good of humanity. LOL
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 4 2025 21:18 utc | 82
Russia's lead negotiator from the talks on the 24th said he didn't expect negotiations to end with a proper settlement until early 2026 given the pace and complexity.
Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 4 2025 17:04 utc | 19
So... that's why the pace has been glacial? To the last ukranian and to a 2 million bayonets RF army?
This points to waiting for a complete capitulation from a country that no longer has any men to even play any gladio moves?
So the 2 million are for something else...
If europe wants to start something not sure they can wait for 2026q1
Posted by: Newbie | Apr 4 2025 21:20 utc | 83
"Remember folks, greed is good. There's not a person alive who doesn't want more money, fancy cars, a big house, hot wife/GF, etc. And where's the best shot of pulling off this outrageous fortune?"
Posted by: Markw | Apr 4 2025 20:40 utc | 76
Haha, "hot wife/GF". Have you been to USA recently? Very high percentage of obese women with bad attitudes, entitled. Usually with an over-abundance of tattoos. No comment on the rest of the post...
Posted by: Spectator | Apr 4 2025 21:22 utc | 84
No, my post at 59 post is just reminding Russo-fan-boys that they've been repeatedly wrong on the brilliance of destroying endless numbers of ex-ukrainia's conscripts who are..forced into the frontline-meatgrinder by the true Nazis who, remain in the rear. All the men who could rebuild the country are being killed and maimed all while all the quislings that begot this tragic war will escape wealthy and unharmed...such is the "brilliance" of warfare by slow attrition.
And yeah, I think people who don't understand that the object of war is not to turn a country into ruins but, to impose one's will deserve to be reminded of their idiocy.
Posted by: S Brennan | Apr 4 2025 21:13 utc | 81
It's a slower thing but, from a post by S some time ago, regulr troops lose 2/3, NCO lose 1/2, officers lose 1/3.
Thing is, do it often enough and you end up cleaning up all stock of non-meat as well
Posted by: Newbie | Apr 4 2025 21:23 utc | 85
B: Will Trump be able to disarm them?
I don't understand that question.
Who armed Rubio? Who said peace will be done in 24h? Who said peace will be done in 100 days?
He is a madman, completely magalomaniac and psychotic. Typo on purpose.
Cf. Mount Rushmore thing.
Posted by: Naive | Apr 4 2025 21:27 utc | 86
Posted by: Markw | Apr 4 2025 20:40 utc | 76
“Greed is good” is primarily a US phenomenon, where self-interest takes absolute precedence over national interest. This mindset has exported itself to the elites of Europe, to the detriment of the national and regional interests there.
If we look at Russia and China, we can make a case that a policy approach exists where self-interest must absolutely remain subservient to the interests of the nation as a whole.
If we look at the the colonial countries in Africa for example, the populations there have long been on the receiving end of a “greed is good” approach taking by puppet leaderships and their cronies. Now we can see a new generation of leaders emerging who understand this is short-sighted and dooms their nations to eternal poverty and dependency, so they have worked out that aligning their own self-interest with the broader national interest is beneficial all round.
It’s a common mistake made by ultra-libertarians to disregard the social attributes of human nature, the tribal aspect for want of a better description; not understanding that the interests of the larger social group align with one’s own individual self-interest at times.
Such is the bipolar nature of the exceptional rugged individualist whose manifest destiny is to run screaming for a government bail-out when something goes wrong.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Apr 4 2025 21:33 utc | 87
another interpretation
Yesterday's two-hour interrogation of General Cavoli at the Senate Armed Services Committee hearings was not just a routine report. It was a frank demonstration of how the US understands the war with Russia , how it is being prepared for and who will wage it. There were no illusions, no "peace tracks" in this conversation - behind the external background of "searching for dialogue" there is calculation and development of scenarios for years to come.
In this regard, it is important to understand the following.
1. There are many like Cavoli in the US. These are people who know Russian and study Russian culture, study the Russian army, read Russian military regulations better than half of the officers in the garrisons. They do not guess, they model. And they do it professionally.
2. They will not consider Russia as a partner - ever. In their coordinate system, the Russian Federation is a source of instability and a threat sitting on an energy resource that must be contained, not taken into account.
3. They will continue to fight with other people's hands. If not Ukraine, they will find another instrument. Asia, the Caucasus, the Balkans - everything is good if it creates a pressure point.
As for Cavoli himself, he is retiring soon, but he is leaving behind a concept that has already taken over budgets and logistics. It was under him that the active procurement of PrSM, new versions of HIMARS and long-range UAVs began. All of these are weapons for a war with a serious enemy , and not for police operations.
Senator Roger Wicker asked Cavoli directly not about how to “help Ukraine,” but about how NATO can understand where and how to defeat the Russian army. The wording is direct. Cavoli’s answer is cautious, but the essence is clear: the Ukrainian Armed Forces are a testing ground, the goal is to collect data, test approaches, and learn lessons.
And all this against the backdrop of peace initiatives and talk of negotiations. The conclusion is obvious: the peace track is a screen behind which preparations for the next round are underway. And it depends only on Russia whether it will become the object of the next experiment or the one who will disrupt it.
True, General Cavoli’s words are ambivalent, typical of the American military establishment. First, he enthusiastically reports how effectively HIMARS and ATACMS worked, what striking results they showed on the battlefield. And then, a couple of minutes later, in an absolutely calm tone, he reports that “it is difficult to imagine an offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.”
It's an old scheme: if it worked, it means the American weapons system worked. If it didn't, it's the Ukrainians' fault, who "didn't have enough resources" or "didn't have the conditions for an offensive." Both versions can be kept in working order at the same time, without blinking an eye.
In fact, this is what Cavoli does. He issues a report on the effectiveness of weapons and at the same time protects the political leadership from the failure of the strategy.
Posted by: Jo | Apr 4 2025 21:36 utc | 88
"There's not a person alive who doesn't want more money, fancy cars, a big house, hot wife/GF, etc. And where's the best shot of pulling off this outrageous fortune?"
Posted by: Markw | Apr 4 2025 20:40 utc | 76
###############
There are people in this world who do not worship material pleasure like animals.
That you don't know any of them says a lot about you.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 4 2025 21:37 utc | 89
Posted by: Markw | Apr 4 2025 20:40 utc | 76
Thing is Markw - times are changing and most in the US do not fully realise it. The UDSA has lost Economic supremacy to China, that much is clear from the data, certainly in terms of Purchasing Power parity and probably in GDP measured in US dollars. It obviously has lost the race in steel, shipbuilding and most manufacturing. AI is eing challenged
It is less clear regarding military supremacy to Russia, but naval supremacy to China is looming quickly and may already have been lost. China has three Aircraft carriers, two very recent up against the US's 10 aged and one less functional new model. Current reports suggest that russia has one heck of a submarine force, but this is untested.
You are being offensive and ignorant attackin b - perhaps it is because he reads a diversity of sources and ypou do not, still parroting your USA exceptionalist clap trap.
Yes the leading researchers, scientists and entrepreneurs are/werein the USA? Keep current. Chinese leading researchers are returning home. The standard of university teaching there has attracted back returning Harvard professors (in my news feed this week - cannot remember name) . The need for Chinese scientists to study in the USA may be fading very fast. USSR scientists gave the USA tech a boost in the 90s-10s, but it will be interesting to see where their children land - will they go to Russia or china to learn.
"Remember folks, greed is good. There's not a person alive who doesn't want more money, fancy cars, a big house, hot wife/GF, etc. And where's the best shot of pulling off this outrageous fortune?"
All i can say is YUK. YUK and YUK again. It is not even true. The trade off for living in the USA is not being able to feel sure your kids are safe at school lest some crazed kid shoots them.
You are very biased and way, way out of date. Stop living in 2005.
Posted by: watcher | Apr 4 2025 21:43 utc | 90
@Jo | Apr 4 2025 21:36 utc | 88
I agree, same as I think
Posted by: smartfox | Apr 4 2025 21:48 utc | 91
As I mentioned, behavior speaks volumes and none of it is lost on Maria Zakharova. TASS today reports her saying:
The ongoing Ukrainian attacks on the Russian civilian population prove that peace is not in the Kiev regime's vocabulary, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said."It has been reliably established that the modern Ukrainian followers of Bandera hunt innocent and defenseless people every day using drones. Drones stuffed with explosives are cold-bloodedly aimed at any person caught in the neo-Nazis' field of vision," the diplomat emphasized. According to her, "[Vladimir] Zelensky's thugs are mercilessly opening fire on women, the elderly and children, trying to hit residential buildings, shops, schools, hospitals, social and transport infrastructure facilities."
"All these facts show that the Kiev junta's plans do not include a ceasefire and achieving a political settlement of the conflict," the spokeswoman said. "Zelensky's regime has no political will for peace. Its supporters are pathologically obsessed with bloodshed, terror, causing damage and maximum suffering to the civilian population," Zakharova pointed out. [My Emphasis]
Results of those attacks are shown on Russian national news daily. Zero observance of the highly touted energy infrastructure ceasefire is also well known to Russians. Realities make the spin put to events by Kirill Dmitriev reckless from a Russain POV:
“We are noting a positive dynamic in our relations,” Dmitriev told reporters on Thursday evening.He added that “significant progress has already been made” towards reaching a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire.
“For example, under the leadership of presidents [Vladimir] Putin and [Donald] Trump, an agreement has been made to refrain from strikes on energy infrastructure between Russia and Ukraine. It is a first step to deescalate the Ukraine conflict,” the envoy said....
According to the Russian Defense Ministry, Kiev has routinely been violating the truce, including four attacks on Russian energy sites on Thursday alone. Ukraine has been targeting fuel depots, gas facilities, and elements of the power grid, the MOD said.
Kiev has claimed that it was observing the energy truce and accused Moscow of striking gas facilities operated by the energy giant Naftogaz.
I recall the BigLie: "Peace is at hand." Spin clashing with reality is something the Outlaw US Empire does constantly, so Team Putin needs to beware its words. Ryabkov in contrast is honest saying the roots have yet to be addressed, and that's where the heart of these negotiations lies.
@ karlof1 | Apr 4 2025 21:51 utc | 92
This is being controlled by Wiesbaden and London. Everything else is just smokescreen for the media to create a culprit (Russia) and justify the subsequent expansion.
Posted by: smartfox | Apr 4 2025 21:58 utc | 93
Newbie | Apr 4 2025 21:20 utc | 83--
No. It will take that long to deal with the roots of the problem since Team Trump has shown no willingness to even talk about that portion of the overall issue, according to Ryabkov who certainly knows. And then there are those pesky facts that Maaria Zakharova notes weekly and are broadcast to Russians daily. Putin and Dmitriev have dangled very juicy carrots in front of American eyes; but until the roots are excavated and burnt to cinders, those carrots will remain dangling just out of reach.
Senator Roger Wicker asked Cavoli directly not about how to “help Ukraine,” but about how NATO can understand where and how to defeat the Russian army. The wording is direct. Cavoli’s answer is cautious, but the essence is clear: the Ukrainian Armed Forces are a testing ground, the goal is to collect data, test approaches, and learn lessons.Posted by: Jo | Apr 4 2025 21:36 utc | 88
Presumably Senator Roger Wicker has, like the rest of us, not been shown any images of the aftermath of the Oreshnik arrival at Yuzhmash; indeed I’m beginning to wonder if General Cavoli has been kept out of that particular info loop? “Collect data”??? Yeah, I bet they got a darn sight more ‘data’ than they bargained for there.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Apr 4 2025 22:01 utc | 95
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 4 2025 21:37 utc | 89
> There are people in this world who do not worship material pleasure like animals.
> That you don't know any of them says a lot about you.
He even does not have a wife nor a GF. Because if he did, he would know that at least 2 out of 4 items in his wish list would not be in her.
Money and house? Maybe. But fancy cars and hot chicks? Probably not. Fancy handbags and designer shoes more likely.
Posted by: hopehely | Apr 4 2025 22:02 utc | 96
my Cavaloni post authored by andfrom z an v telegram. hope they do not mind me transferring to here.
Posted by: Jo | Apr 4 2025 22:03 utc | 97
smartfox | Apr 4 2025 21:58 utc | 93--
Thanks for your reply. Last Friday it was Ray McGovern who said MI6 was "working hand in glove" with the Kiev Nazis. I wonder what he'll say today when I watch that chat in a few minutes. Doctorow made an interesting observation about Finland's Stubb's altered POV after his meeting with Trump last week:
"As I began to say, when Finnish president Stubb visited Trump for a round of golf in Mar-a-Lago and spent 7 hours with the President, I assumed that this did not look good for the Russians, since Stubb has been one of the most Russophobic leaders in the EU. However, within a couple of days it became clear that Trump had given Stubb a good lesson on what's what and who's who in this world, not the other way around. Stubb was now quoted by journalists as saying that Europe should prepare for normalizing relations with Russia. Then yesterday he added to this, saying someone among the European leaders should take the initiative and make contact with Putin. He specifically named Britain and-or France as the best candidates for the job. Nota bene: no mention of the EU's Russia-bashing vice president for foreign relations Kaja Kallas!"
🇺🇦🤡 Today marks 2 months since we have been working on the deployment of a foreign contingent in Ukraine, — Zelensky
- Such a final first meeting took place today. It is a milestone, very important. This does not mean that only 3 countries that were here today - Ukraine, France, Britain - are included in this process. Many other countries.
- I don't want to say the size of this coalition yet. I think the teams need about another month. And we will be ready to fully understand this infrastructure, Zelensky said at a briefing.
@Slavyangrad
Posted by: Jo | Apr 4 2025 22:08 utc | 99
Posted by: Mario | Apr 4 2025 21:07 utc | 79 Yes when an enemy army raises a red flag over the White House, the dollar and USTs too will be worthless.
Posted by: steven t johnson | Apr 4 2025 22:13 utc | 100
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NATO's logic is this: if Russia defeats the West in Ukraine, then China will be emboldened to take Taiwan. So the message, dear DJT, is that the hegemonic/paymaster of the West cannot undercut Ukraine in any way, shape, form or fashion.
To give Russia a 'W' is to greenlight China.
Fortune cookie logic a la Mark Rutte: as if China's One China concept had not already incorporated Taiwan integration into its future-?
Posted by: steel_porcupine | Apr 4 2025 16:16 utc | 1