Some Fall-Out From The Tariff Wars
President Trump likely thought that he could press China into making a deal with him. The tariffs he imposed were supposed to create leverage for that.
Instead he found that China is willing and able to fight back:
China said it will raise its tariff on US goods to 84%, retaliating to the hefty new tariffs on its imports that kicked in on Wednesday.The move came after the Trump administration followed through on a threat to add a 50% tariff on Chinese goods, in addition to 34% reciprocal tariffs, raising the overall tariff rate on Chinese goods to 104%. The steep new duties on China and 184 other US trading partners took effect at 12:01 a.m. ET on Wednesday.
Beijing's move marks further deterioration in US-China trade relations after China vowed on Tuesday to "fight to the end" in the renewed trade war.
When the U.S. launched its proxy war in Ukraine against Russia it thought that it could defeat Russia by economic means. A wall of sanctions and other restrictions were to destroy the Russian economy. But Russia was prepared and much stronger than the U.S. had anticipated. Its economy did better than those of the countries which opposed it.
A similar miscalculation seems to have happened with regards to China.
Trump is not knowledgeable about China's mighty economy. Vice-President Vance recently called China's highly qualified work force 'peasants'. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is likewise ignorant:
I advised Scott Bessent, now Trump's Secretary of the Treasury who is leading the tariff war, in 2013 when he was still with Soros. An investment bank engaged me to advise Bessent on China's economy and consumer trends and go over my book The End of Cheap China.I took an instant disliking - Bessent was one of the most arrogant and ignorant on China people I had ever met. He was uber bearish on China and was largely ideologically driven in his analysis. Communist countries couldn't succeed was basically the jist of his views.
Data and rational analysis did not reign supreme.
...
He thinks America has the upper hand with China right now. I worry for America. We have one of the most ignorant on China yet arrogant people I've ever met running a trade war against China.
Along with trouble in the stock and treasury markets we now can see trade between the U.S. and not only China but large parts of South Asia comes to a screeching halt:
Amid escalating trade tensions between China and the United States, some Chinese exporters are taking the drastic step of ditching shipments mid-voyage and surrendering containers to shipping companies to avoid crushing tariff costs.Industry insiders have dubbed the move “preparing for the Long March”, a grim metaphor for what many see as a prolonged and punishing downturn in cross-Pacific trade.
A staff member at a China-listed export company, who requested anonymity, said its US-bound container volume had plummeted from 40 to 50 containers a day to just three to six as a result of the new tariffs on Chinese imports imposed by the second Trump administration.
...
“We’ve halted all shipping plans from the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia,” the employee said. “Every factory order is halted. Anything that hasn’t been loaded will be scrapped, and the cargo already at sea is being re-costed.”
Those are goods that U.S. importers expected to see but which will not be delivered. Not even to higher prices. It may take a few weeks until the effects will be seen in U.S. stores but empty shelves, especially for low value everyday stuff, are now sure to appear.
There are no other producers to take up the space.
This will hit the U.S. much more than China:
The Chinese trade surplus with the US is about 3% of its GDP. China would not lose off of that; it would wind up redirecting a lot of those goods to other countries that would only welcome the extra stuff up to a point, or even sell more domestically. But China could weather the hit. Economic suffering that clearly results from US malevolence would also be unifying, while a sluggish economy due to the deflating of a monster property bubble is much less so.Trump is proposing to make this dire situation worse by sanctioning pharmaceuticals.
...
The only way inflicting this level of punishment on Americans (a huge spike in untreated illnesses, on top of the economic distress from sudden rises in costs and resulting spending cutbacks that will result in business failures, high inflation (conceivably hyperinflation if the destruction of productive capacity is large enough, and readers know I hate the casual use of the “h” word), and a big uptick in unemployment, is if the plan is to produce so much upheaval as to justify the imposition of martial law. But who wants to be the emperor of a hellhole?
On Monday I had quoted Adam Tooze who provided a scenario of rising Treasury interest:
Rather than investors piling into Treasuries driving the price up, instead, we could see investors selling Treasuries en masse.
...
At this point we would expect to see the Fed step in, not just to lower interest rates, as is now commonly expected, but do more drastic interventions.
...
But [..] what if investors, both American and foreign decide, that they no longer wish to hitch their wagon to the empire of the mad king? What if they decide that the US is indeed exceptional, but that it is exceptional in rather nasty ways? [...] Well in that case, holding billions in dollars newly created by the Fed does not give you the security you want.So you sell the dollars. You just want out of the mad house.
This, Ladies and Gentleman, would be the truly big disaster.
The unthinkable move in Treasury happened last night:
Treasury yields spiked on Wednesday as investors bailed out of what has been perceived as the world’s safest instrument on expectations of crumbling foreign demand as tariffs take effect.The yield on the 10-year Treasury spiked to as high as 4.516%. Yields move in the opposite direction to prices.
Yields settled down after China called for dialogue with the U.S. on trade, and then moved right back near the highs of the day after China said it was increasing its tariffs on the U.S. to 84%.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury was 4.91%, having earlier peaked above 5%.
“Something has broken tonight in the bond market. We are seeing a disorderly liquidation,” said Jim Bianco, president and macro strategist at Bianco Research.
...
[T]ariffs are devastating to bonds — not only do they have an inflationary impact, but they result in fewer dollars being sent to foreign countries that have traditionally recycled them into financial assets and U.S. Treasury securities in particular.
Peter Schiff @PeterSchiff - 10:51 UTC · Apr 9, 2025U.S. stocks, bonds, and the dollar are all down. This is a broad-based liquidation of U.S. assets. Trump claims his tariffs will cause foreigners to invest in the U.S. to avoid the tariffs. Instead, tariffs have already resulted in foreigners pulling their money out of the U.S.
Rising interests is the last thing the Trump administration wanted to see. It wants to borrow more to be able to cut taxes. But with interest rates on the rise it will become more difficult to cover the U.S. deficit.
The real damage though will probably happen in smaller Asian countries who have borrowed in U.S. dollar and, due to tariff and trade troubles and rising interest rates, will have difficulties to pay back their loans. If they default the western banks who have lend them the money will go down with them. The trade trouble could thus develop into a serious banking crisis.
These are interesting times to live in ...
Posted by b on April 9, 2025 at 17:14 UTC | Permalink
next page »I don't think Germans are in any position to lecture anyone about collapsing economies. Even if you were, who is going to buy $30 trillion plus of US debt? Attempted selling would only pass around the T-bill, likely at a loss for the seller.
That would put the Trump tax cuts in doubt, but do you really think he cares about that any more than the "market crash?" Hah.
Posted by: They Call Me Mister | Apr 9 2025 17:23 utc | 2
Most of Trump’s policies will lead to ABJECT FAILURES. ECONOMIC failures. MILITARY failures. DIPLOMATIC failures.
Posted by: Liberator | Apr 9 2025 17:21 utc | 2
These are all GOOD things as it'll put an end to globalization and herald a new multipolar world. Sure, it'll be a painful transition, but that was ALWAYS in the cards.
The question is this... are they "planned" failures? Hmmmm...
Posted by: TJandTheBear | Apr 9 2025 17:24 utc | 3
—❗️�� BREAKING: President Trump pauses tariffs for a 90-day period – Truth Social
https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/17188
Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 9 2025 17:27 utc | 4
So, a country with no money, a depleted production base, an economy based on derivatives, one of the worst education systems of any developed country, starts a trade war with a country that is the complete opposite to it in respect to the above characteristics. Who is going to win this trade war then?
Posted by: Ogre | Apr 9 2025 17:28 utc | 5
Some four years ago I read accounts that there were/are more than a million millionaires (U$ dollar equivalencies) in China. My rhetorical question is how they achieved that status. Likely in more than 90% of that demographic they did NOT inherit their fortunes. Evidentially. the Chinese economy has made massive strides. Diligence, hard-work and solid educations had a lot to do with that development.
Meanwhile, on American campuses, the mantra is "Party On". Amongst U$ working class serfs the mantra is TGIF.
Posted by: aristodemos | Apr 9 2025 17:28 utc | 6
Trump doubles down on China but blinks on wider tariffs….“Based on the lack of respect that China has shown to the World’s Markets, I am hereby raising the Tariff charged to China by the United States of America to 125%, effective immediately. At some point, hopefully in the near future, China will realize that the days of ripping off the U.S.A., and other Countries, is no longer sustainable or acceptable. Conversely, and based on the fact that more than 75 Countries have called Representatives of the United States, including the Departments of Commerce, Treasury, and the USTR, to negotiate a solution to the subjects being discussed relative to Trade, Trade Barriers, Tariffs, Currency Manipulation, and Non Monetary Tariffs, and that these Countries have not, at my strong suggestion, retaliated in any way, shape, or form against the United States, I have authorized a 90 day PAUSE, and a substantially lowered Reciprocal Tariff during this period, of 10%, also effective immediately. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”
Trump has paused tariffs for everyone BUT China for 90 days. This time no fake news, its from his own X account. The market is massively rallying.
https://x.com/Zagonel85/status/1910020994321838120
Posted by: unimperator | Apr 9 2025 17:31 utc | 8
... holding billions in dollars newly created by the Fed does not give you the security you want.So you sell the dollars. You just want out of the mad house.
Posted by b on April 9, 2025 at 17:14 UTC | Permalink
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Indirect bidders bought 87% of today's 10Y Treasury auction. Indirects are a sloppy proxy for foreign banking interests.
Posted by: too scents | Apr 9 2025 17:34 utc | 9
@too scents | Apr 9 2025 17:34 utc | 9
Market manipulation
Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 9 2025 17:36 utc | 10
It's too soon to draw firm conclusions about the tariff effects. It has countless moving parts in the global economy and all are being effected and it's just started and the effects will be transmitted through time as the global economy evolves.
So even if something becomes clear initially that changed environment will beget more, unanticipated changes.
Were going to have to see what Trump's intuition has come up with. He may actually be a genius.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Apr 9 2025 17:37 utc | 11
The United States is a declining empire, now ruled by a kakistocracy that believes it has found in tariffs the weapon to reverse its loss of competitiveness against China and other countries. It may be too early to determine the outcome, but what the US trade war against the entire world will achieve is that other countries will strengthen their regional blocs (especially ASEAN) and reduce their political and economic dependence on Washington, which is no longer a reliable partner for them.
Posted by: Gabriel Moyssen | Apr 9 2025 17:38 utc | 12
Trumps not Putin then ! More forest gump.
He's flip floping now, that shows weakness and loss of control.
How do you build new factorys in america with ten year investment in that enviroment.
Answer...you dont.
Posted by: Mark2 | Apr 9 2025 17:38 utc | 13
Market manipulation
Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 9 2025 17:36 utc | 10
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Could be. Trump caved just after the 10Y closed.
Posted by: too scents | Apr 9 2025 17:39 utc | 14
Scott Bessent,yet another jumped up Zionazi irrationally convinced of his genius in spite of material reality.
Good write up today. The parallel with the Dem gamble on Russia is very apt. Haven't we seen this movie recently?
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Apr 9 2025 17:39 utc | 15
These are all GOOD things as it'll put an end to globalization and herald a new multipolar world. Sure, it'll be a painful transition, but that was ALWAYS in the cards.
The question is this... are they "planned" failures? Hmmmm...
Posted by: TJandTheBear | Apr 9 2025 17:24 utc | 3
The global economy will march on under China.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Apr 9 2025 17:41 utc | 16
Gosh this is so fake. Anything to isolate China.
Trump talks tough. "End NATO. Tariff my friends. Zelensky is a dope."
He throws the line into the water and then pulls at the right time to reel in the idiots. He is just another extension of the duopoly, both its most pure expression and its inevitably-doomed tragic hero.
It's a stupid game to blow off pressure from angry nationalists/patriots/leftist-realists to keep them from galvanizing.
Wake me up when Silver gets back to 20:1 with Gold. It's coming but is going to take a while.
Posted by: NemesisCalling | Apr 9 2025 17:41 utc | 17
April 9 (Reuters) - China's central bank will not allow sharp yuan declines and has asked major state-owned banks to reduce U.S. dollar purchases
Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 9 2025 17:45 utc | 18
Speculation. The 'fake headline' on Monday of pausing tariffs for 90 days, was not a fake headline, but a test for market reaction.
After seeing jitters in the treasury market, Trump's team figured out that tariffs on everybody will end up very badly.
So they ended up using this tariff pause ammunition now to relieve pressure on treasuries, which also catch a bid from foreign buyers.
I don't think they are still out of the woods, and many financial analysts say there will be violent bear market rallies but ultimately its going lower until mid-late 2026.
https://x.com/leadlagreport/status/1909939801102393422
Posted by: unimperator | Apr 9 2025 17:45 utc | 19
1. I have always believed that the US was working towards the great trade bifurcation where the US block would include all Europe and 5 eyes and as much of Asia and S America as it could get, and cut that off completely with China/BRICS block.
It appears instead US really wants to go on its own - not even Canada.
2. There could be a huge rush of capital to china now.
3. The great insight of MAGA is that America is NOT Great anymore. That is what Trump could say and Clinton couldn't. It freed him and tied her down.
He is now stuck with American is Great and defeat cannot be planned for.
Posted by: Michael Droy | Apr 9 2025 17:46 utc | 20
#WolffBites
https://x.com/profwolff/status/1909658332169658428
"Europeans split again as they offer Trump concessions to 'mitigate' tariffs. UK leads of course.
There goes Europe's chance to unify and thereby try to regain status - like US and China - with the world economy."
Posted by: John Gilberts | Apr 9 2025 17:54 utc | 21
I know very little about the banking world.
But i do know it's all about credit worthyness and pesonal credabilty.
Both of which are now completly absent from trump and america at the momment.
America is a total right off.
Forgetaboutit.
Posted by: Mark2 | Apr 9 2025 18:00 utc | 22
BBC Radio World Service announced the 125% tariff on China half an hour ago. But the (knee-jerk) Pause hasn't been mentioned yet.
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Apr 9 2025 18:01 utc | 23
Bessent being a former pal with Soros says it all to me. What I would really like to know is how much money the Soros empire made with this market meltdown. Since it is his forte in many money by shorting the market. Would definitely like to know.
Posted by: Jose Garcia | Apr 9 2025 18:01 utc | 24
So the 90 days pause for “some” countries.
Is there a list? Could be those that offered to bend the knee.
Meanwhile china is not going according to plans or is it?
Could part of bend the knee include joining us on china tariffs?
I said that many in trumps administration had too many interests in china for something serious to happen, but now I’m having doubts.
Posted by: Newbie | Apr 9 2025 18:02 utc | 25
Market manipulation
Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 9 2025 17:36 utc | 10
Posted by: too scents | Apr 9 2025 17:39 utc | 14
---
More color
Against this backdrop, the Treasury is getting ready to sell $39 billion of 10-year debt at 1 p.m. on Wednesday, followed by a 30-year auction on Thursday.“[Treasury Secretary Scott] Bessent has to be making emergency calls to dealers…to make sure we don’t have failed Treasury auctions, where there are not enough bids to cover the issuance,” wrote Andrew Brenner, head of international fixed income at NatAlliance Securities.
excerpted from ==> https://www.barrons.com/articles/treasury-bond-auction-today-922d2e3e
The indirect bidders that bought 87% of today's 10Y auction also includes Bessent's Exchange Stablization Fund.
Posted by: too scents | Apr 9 2025 18:06 utc | 26
According to plan. Ninety day pause for all countries that have called to negotiate. Upped to 125 percent for China.
China is now isolated and alone. Choose your side. You can continue to buy cheap products from China or sell your products in the US. You can’t do both.
Trump through slight of hand actually got the markets to go up more than 2,000 points in about half an hour by announcing a trade war with China, ten percent across the board tariffs, and twenty five percent tariffs in steel and autos.
I don’t know why so many refuse to read his book. It’s all right there. This was entirely predictable. lol
Posted by: CullenBaker | Apr 9 2025 18:12 utc | 27
This was entirely predictable.
Posted by: CullenBaker | Apr 9 2025 18:12 utc | 27
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Really? This volatility isn't predictable to anybody except the gang creating it. They are going to blow up their pals in the Options market.
Posted by: too scents | Apr 9 2025 18:15 utc | 28
Posted by: CullenBaker | Apr 9 2025 18:12 utc | 27
I believe some call that 4D chess.
Posted by: alek_a | Apr 9 2025 18:17 utc | 29
About a month ago I told you about the Titanic and Captain (DJT).
The other Titanic is of course the threat against the (IRI).
(DJT) is a dangerous man and his actions can cost the Outlaw US of A trillions of dollars.
He's so erratic that he could potentially unleash a kenetic global war so destructive that none of us shall be able to survive.
Posted by: pepe | Apr 9 2025 18:17 utc | 30
In an absolutely bizarre feat of incompetence, the United States have now not only forced Japan, China and South Korea to mend their disagreements to fight off the common foe, but it has also, incredibly, seemingly managed to drive all of Europe into the arms of China, and by extension, Russia.
Headlines in Swedish newspapers today, "China vows to fight to the end." The language and tone used borders on heroic.
Posted by: Tichy | Apr 9 2025 18:17 utc | 31
Meanwhile... back to the real world what a 90 day pause means.
"Keep in mind what a 90 day pause means for companies. They likely freeze hiring, reduce CAPEX, etc. till there's clarity how these tariffs ultimately resolve. Even with a positive resolution, the slowdown in economic activity from businesses taking a wait and see approach has a high probability of inducing a recession later this year.
As I've said, the latest bottom resembles 2022's initial low that lasted for several months. This seems to be following a similar path.
*NFA
https://x.com/Reformed_Trader/status/1910027474538283192
"
Posted by: unimperator | Apr 9 2025 18:18 utc | 32
In an absolutely bizarre feat of incompetence, the United States have now not only forced Japan, China and South Korea to mend their disagreements to fight off the common foe, but it has also, incredibly, seemingly managed to drive all of Europe into the arms of China, and by extension, Russia.
————
Tell that to the delegations from those countries that will be in D.C. starting tomorrow to bend the knee.
Posted by: CullenBaker | Apr 9 2025 18:21 utc | 33
Meanwhile... back to the real world what a 90 day pause means.
Posted by: unimperator | Apr 9 2025 18:18 utc | 32
---
Chekhov's gun.
Posted by: too scents | Apr 9 2025 18:21 utc | 34
Posted by: Tichy | Apr 9 2025 18:17 utc | 31
>>>
That was always the plan. But the Outlaw US of A always think they know best.
Don't forget that the Outlaw US of A [among multiple other evil things] engineered a virus and blew up NS1 and part of NS2.
EU could align with the (RUF) and for sure with the (PRC) afterall.
Posted by: pepe | Apr 9 2025 18:23 utc | 35
Trump Blinked First...
https://x.com/BharatRamamurti/status/1910022943016431657
"I hope the press covers this accurately.
Trump previewed a bizarre tariff strategy that froze business investment for the first few months of the year.
He then announced an even more unhinged tariff plan that tanked global markets.
Then he caved without gaining the US anything..."
Posted by: John Gilberts | Apr 9 2025 18:24 utc | 36
Tell that to the delegations from those countries that will be in D.C. starting tomorrow to bend the knee.
Posted by: CullenBaker | Apr 9 2025 18:21 utc | 33
Exactly. A lot of "resistance" media believed a single meeting signified a global revolution, while the tame governments of Japan and South Korea were obviously never going to break with America. Even The Guardian (!) was warning that the UK was about to erect trade barriers to prevent Chinese dumping.
I'm starting to think a lot of the pro-China coverage is hype. Which is understandable, given the importance of hype to the American news cycle, but ultimately camouflage for a weak position.
Posted by: They Call Me Mister | Apr 9 2025 18:25 utc | 37
Stop all this stupid talk about capital leaving the US for China. It won’t happen.
If you manufacture in China, you do so with a company owned by China that works “on your behalf”. If you want to sell in China, you have to manufacture there. You then have about five years or so before they steal your IP, manufacture your product, sell it below cost, and run you out of business. They’ve only gotten away with it for as long as they have through weakness and graft in US governments that needed cheap goods as they devalued the dollar and ran up deficits and debt.
Posted by: CullenBaker | Apr 9 2025 18:27 utc | 38
Could part of bend the knee include joining us on china tariffs?
Posted by: Newbie | Apr 9 2025 18:02 utc | 25
You can bet on that. Not only China, but Iran too. He attempts a split within Brics.
Also these on-off-on-.. tariffs are just market manipulations for insiders. Looks like the money printer isn't enough anymore, they've turned instantly into direct stealing, bait and switch scams and bombs where possible. And some memecoins for the new big guy.
I suspect he's going to selectively tariff EU countries, not as a bloc, to create internal tensions there too.
Posted by: rk | Apr 9 2025 18:27 utc | 39
Posted by: John Gilberts | Apr 9 2025 17:54 utc | 21
Britain is not Europe these days. Americans have difficulty in distinguishing countries so far away, even Wolff.
Posted by: laguerre | Apr 9 2025 18:28 utc | 40
Of course, he is going to break Europe with carrots and sticks and deal with them individually instead of a bloc. It’s the end of the EU as anything but a joke.
Posted by: CullenBaker | Apr 9 2025 18:31 utc | 41
Were going to have to see what Trump's intuition has come up with. He may actually be a genius.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Apr 9 2025 17:37 utc | 11
You know a man's future mostly by his past. The man is an abject idiot.
Putin is what genius looks like. Xi, even.
It's consistent. It's evident in almost everything they do.
All we know of Trump is one bumbling act of clownery after another- accompanied by Hollywood fanfare.
Why anticipate more now?
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Apr 9 2025 18:31 utc | 42
If there's eleven dimensional chess here, maybe the goal is to break up BRICS+?
Although taken in isolation, the tariff must be inflationary to some degree, being a form of sales tax raising the prices of imported good and components of goods, the ultimate effect is unpredictable. If dividing the world market into trading blocs ensues, the lower profits inherent to smaller markets (which don't permit concentrated investment in more efficient plants with larger economies of scale,) could induce deflationary trends. Net effect? We'll see.
Miran is right about one thing, governments don't go broke until they are defeated. Historically they don't go broke then quit fighting, that's getting it backward.
Posted by: steven t johnson | Apr 9 2025 18:31 utc | 43
So Trump blinked after seeing the utter devastation that was about to be unleashed. The very oversold market dutifully leapt, but the 100%+ tariffs on China stay and all other tariffs it seems (excluding those on cars, steel and aluminum) will be at the level of 10% for the next 90 days (until July).
So the US still gets the horrendously disruptive effects of the cutting off Chinese imports that are so central to the functioning of the US economy, still gets the effects of the Chinese restrictions on critical mineral exports, still gets the impact of the retaliatory Chinese tariffs on US exports to China. Plus the inflationary impacts of the 25% tariff on cars, steel and aluminum, plus the extra 10% across the board tariff. Once the store shelves start emptying of cheap Chinese goods, and a plethora of other manufacturers cut back due to a lack of Chinese inputs while others jack up prices, and those other additional tariffs start feeding through the US economy, the euphoria will quickly collapse.
China has called Trump's bluff, just in the same way that Russia has, and even in the same way that Yemen has. This will go down as the "first 100 days disaster" for Trump, from which his foreign policy and a huge chunk of his MAGA support will never recover. And what happens in 90 days? I see a major-league reversing back of much of his bluster of a few days ago, quietly compromising much of his announced tariff rises (as has happened with Mexico and Canada). And then a grovelling back-channel outreach to China as the devastation of the US economy, and the continued strength of the Chinese, becomes apparent. If not, it seems that the House and Senate are ready to deliver a massive rebuke by overriding Trump's tariff increases.
What has now been shown to the whole world is that the US can no longer act as it likes and is subject to a multi-polar world. And in parallel, most probably a massive Russian Spring offensive to drive home the fact that it will not compromise on its security needs. The attack on Yemen has also certainly failed, and Russia and China are messaging that any attack on Iran is unacceptable to them. So Trump gets to sign a deal with Iran very much like the one he canned during Trump 1, and will most probably actually have to remove sanctions on the country. They say of bankruptcy that it is a slow process and then a very fast one. We seem to have entered the fast phase of US decline, helped along greatly by Trump's missteps and misjudgements.
Posted by: Roger Boyd | Apr 9 2025 18:32 utc | 44
Trump: "more than 75 Countries have called Representatives of the United States, including the Departments of Commerce, Treasury, and the USTR, to negotiate a solution to the subjects being discussed..."
Previously the Trump admin had stated tariff relief requires the effected Country to “align with the United States in economic and national security matters”.
Posted by: jayc | Apr 9 2025 18:33 utc | 45
....A break from tariffs, if I may.
Mr. Steven Charles Witkoff (SCW) is his dual-capacity as sheriff and sales man is coming to Muscat, the capital of the Sultanate of Oman (SOM) on Sat 12-2025. Oman is an absolute monarchy and shares land borders with Yemen.
Remarkably, Muscat has a more pleasant climate than Madinah – more commonly known as Medina – in the (KSA).
However, Medina is home to several distinguished sites and landmarks, most of which are mosques and hold historic significance.
A beautiful place in the dessert previously occupied by Jewish tribes during the fourth century.
As a side note, earlier today the Houthis launched a multiple drones attack at an Israeli military facility in the occupied area of Jaffa.
Interesting times.
Posted by: pepe | Apr 9 2025 18:33 utc | 46
@Posted by: CullenBaker | Apr 9 2025 18:12 utc | 27
Trump Delusion Syndrome, utterly disconnected from reality.
Posted by: Roger Boyd | Apr 9 2025 18:34 utc | 47
"Were going to have to see what Trump's intuition has come up with. He may actually be a genius."
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Apr 9 2025 17:37 utc | 11
I , too think he is being underestimated for his vision-time will tell.
"All we know of Trump is one bumbling act of clownery after another- accompanied by Hollywood fanfare.
Why anticipate more now?"
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Apr 9 2025 18:31 utc | 42
Of course, Arch; you are so much more successful than Trump-you are probably a trillionaire with a 250 IQ.
Can I touch your hem?
Posted by: too scents | Apr 9 2025 17:39 utc | 14
Maybe I'm wrong but I guess there is lot of insider trading.
Posted by: Mario | Apr 9 2025 18:37 utc | 50
Could part of bend the knee include joining us on china tariffs?
Posted by: Newbie | Apr 9 2025 18:02 utc | 25
You can bet on that. Not only China, but Iran too. He attempts a split within Brics.
Also these on-off-on-.. tariffs are just market manipulations for insiders. Looks like the money printer isn't enough anymore, they've turned instantly into direct stealing, bait and switch scams and bombs where possible. And some memecoins for the new big guy.
I suspect he's going to selectively tariff EU countries, not as a bloc, to create internal tensions there too.
Posted by: rk | Apr 9 2025 18:27 utc | 39
In another thread I mentioned iran's offer to make deals and let us invest in iran looked a lot like RF's gambit and could create a strange balance between RF+Iranvs china vs us
Any eu sanctions country specific would only create an export point somewhere else within eu, no impact except politics
Posted by: Newbie | Apr 9 2025 18:39 utc | 51
They say of bankruptcy that it is a slow process and then a very fast one. We seem to have entered the fast phase of US decline, helped along greatly by Trump's missteps and misjudgements.
Posted by: Roger Boyd | Apr 9 2025 18:32 utc | 44
Again, are you sure this isn't all planned? The US economy was destined for a crash regardless of who was in charge, and the best time to make drastic changes is immediately after you take power such that any benefits derived will be evident by the time another election cycle rolls around.
Posted by: TJandTheBear | Apr 9 2025 18:39 utc | 52
If there's eleven dimensional chess here, maybe the goal is to break up BRICS+?
Although taken in isolation, the tariff must be inflationary to some degree, being a form of sales tax raising the prices of imported good and components of goods, the ultimate effect is unpredictable. If dividing the world market into trading blocs ensues...
Posted by: steven t johnson | Apr 9 2025 18:31 utc | 43
That may be the goal but it might have the very opposite effect:
Countries tend to rally around the strongest opposition in this case. It's just human behaviour. The BRICS+ might be strengthened further as countries commit to China (primarily) and Russia as an alternative anchor for the global economy.
Trade flows could redirect around the U.S, trade in yuan and rouble (basket of currencies) could increase. Markets and shipping lanes could redirect away from Western-controlled ports and canals.
Aside:
You can see the purpose of Panama and the fight in the Red Sea in this 'tariff war'. All the dots are connecting ...
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Apr 9 2025 18:40 utc | 53
Maybe I'm wrong but I guess there is lot of insider trading.
Posted by: Mario | Apr 9 2025 18:37 utc | 50
---
The problem is that without enough insiders the market could fail with "no bid".
Posted by: too scents | Apr 9 2025 18:41 utc | 54
Insider trading is the first thing that came to mind with this move.
China has called his bluff and it is throwing a wrench into whatever plan the US side had hatched. Trump to me seems to be looking for any quick win and there are none to be had, Russia won't play ball, Israel will not play ball, Iran, etc. Biggest of all is China looks like they have had enough, he has basically been giving strong hints that they call him and give the appearance of playing ball so he can no doubt put the China tarrifs on "hold", but they won't even give him that.
Amazing to see this play out.
Posted by: silverfoxes | Apr 9 2025 18:43 utc | 55
When it comes to the Chinese the R's and MAGA have a distinct
hatred for them and can't see the tree's from the forest so
instinctively they believe that they are head and shoulders
above them in every regard.
They are about to find out the truth for all the unintended
consequences are about to hit amerikans in a way never seen
before.
B you outdid yourself with this article, BRAVO!!
Posted by: Ggersh | Apr 9 2025 18:46 utc | 56
Insider trading is the first thing that came to mind with this move.
Posted by: silverfoxes | Apr 9 2025 18:43 utc | 55
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What comes to my mind is, "How can you hedge against this kind of volatility?"
The level of risk is just insane.
Posted by: too scents | Apr 9 2025 18:48 utc | 57
Trump "Pauses" Reciprocal Tariffs For 90 Days (Except China).
It was a 3D chess move Putin would dream of.
By the time this is over, USA will have a reciprocal trade deal with everybody except for China.
They are isolating it from the world.
I think they will collapse by the end of the year.
Posted by: louis | Apr 9 2025 18:48 utc | 58
From Brian Berletic and first posted at NEO
Worst Case Scenario: Trump’s Tariffs Walling US Off Ahead of Wider World Conflict
Exc:
While the most immediate and intuitive explanations for growing US tariffs against nations worldwide stem from protecting uncompetitive but deeply entrenched corporate-financier monopolies within the US from increasing foreign competition, or a specific strategy to contain China’s growing economic influence worldwide, there is a much more concerning possibility being overlooked by many – the US decoupling from a global economy it seeks to deliberately destroy through a combination of economic and actual warfare.
While a global tariff policy to wall off the US economy from its own premeditated destruction of the global economy is a drastic policy, the complete reorganization of US military forces specifically for war with China along with the seizure of key maritime choke points worldwide are equally drastic and make sense only as part of a strategy to precipitate that destruction.
Empire in terminal decline throughout human history has suffered from dangerous desperation. In the 21st century, the US represents a modern-day empire in terminal decline – one armed with nuclear weapons, a global-spanning military, and in control of global economic tools capable of destroying the entire global system rather than concede its role placed above it. The goal would be to survive the controlled demolition of the global order it has presided over for decades and emerge the strongest player, best positioned for establishing itself once again as “the world’s dominant superpower.”
Posted by: JB | Apr 9 2025 18:50 utc | 59
@Posted by: TJandTheBear | Apr 9 2025 18:39 utc | 52
Trump's backers could see that the wheels were about to come off completely, with the kind of economic and financial crash that would not even be fully recovered from by 2028, let alone the mid-terms in 2026. That's why you saw the House and Senate moving to revoke the tariffs, and I am sure that Trump got a few phone calls telling him to walk these back for now. The problem is that the financial position of the US is so fragile, and the Trump backers did not seem to see what utter chaos would be unleashed.
China now sees its chance, and the US weakness and fragility, and I don't see it backing down in any way. Ditto for Russia, Iran and Yemen. The dynamics of the international system are rapidly changing.
Posted by: Roger Boyd | Apr 9 2025 18:51 utc | 60
I have consistently heard calls for many years about Chinese collapse is just around the corner for many years, much like Ukranian calls earlier in the war about how the Russian army was about to collapse in a week/month/year etc.
Lasting relationships that benefit both parties are based on trust, without that you are engaging more in a transaction, both have their pros/cons.
Posted by: silverfoxes | Apr 9 2025 18:51 utc | 61
Market fundamentals tell me that Trumponomics fronting the God Of Mammon global private finance cult is causing wild gyrations in markets. I continue to believe that this is a feature of Trumponomics, not a bug and designed to crash the world economy to lock in private finance longer.
The shit show continues until it doesn't
Who is doing Trump's self-serving financial deals behind the scenes before his announcements?
If you could move markets wouldn't you want to PROFIT off that? I expect Trump gets hard just thinking about the possibilities.
Posted by: psychohistorian | Apr 9 2025 18:52 utc | 62
It feels like this entire tariff caper is just a distraction from the fact that Ukraine is about to collapse under the Russian advance.
Look over there!
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Apr 9 2025 18:52 utc | 63
Posted by: too scents | Apr 9 2025 18:48 utc | 57
You hedge using options.
Buying puts is an insurance, but it comes with a cost.
If you know in advance what Trump is going to do, you simply buy the dip.
Obviously you are an insider.
Posted by: Mario | Apr 9 2025 18:54 utc | 64
Amazing that the "isolation" line is being parroted about China, this is the same line that was used for Russia and how did that turn out?
The exact same talking points that were used with regards to Russian sanctions are now being said about China. Guaranteed many countries will keep trading with China.
It looks like China has now made a decision that it will stand firm and scuttle the US relationship if need be. Amazing time to be alive.
Posted by: silverfoxes | Apr 9 2025 18:57 utc | 65
You hedge using options.
Posted by: Mario | Apr 9 2025 18:54 utc | 64
---
There is a funny thing about how volatility influences option calculations. Funny and sad.
Posted by: too scents | Apr 9 2025 18:57 utc | 66
Can I touch your hem?
Posted by: canuck | Apr 9 2025 18:36 utc | 49
No, peasant. It's fine muslin.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Apr 9 2025 18:59 utc | 67
Just buy the dip, Trump has flipped flopped his whole life.
He will back down on China also at some point once the cost gets to high.
This isn't rocket science, all these rich guys want the current system preserved. They don't have the guts to willlingly burn it down, it's all going to fall anyway.
Posted by: silverfoxes | Apr 9 2025 19:00 utc | 68
The volume of this rally is heavily tapering off. A lot of technical damage was done to Russel/SP500, it will take a lot of conviction from bulls to repair it. I would put odds for this is just a heavy bear market rally. Buy gold and gold stocks, when the shit show continues they will shine.
Posted by: unimperator | Apr 9 2025 19:02 utc | 69
In another thread I mentioned iran's offer to make deals and let us invest in iran looked a lot like RF's gambit and could create a strange balance between RF+Iranvs china vs us
Posted by: Newbie | Apr 9 2025 18:39 utc | 51
Iran and RF can make any offers they want. If he accepts he'll get resources and the Chinese goodies at almost old prices while he can claim 1000% tariffs for China. But Trump and those before him, including himself the last time, showed interest only in bombing them and stealing their money, that is the third world treatment. To me it looks like those behind Trump and Biden's actions seem to have asked an AI for ideas but that AI was trained using movie scripts, fiction books and strategy games where you click "build" and the item instantly appears if you have the money for it.
He wants 40-50 icebreakers right now. Good luck with that! He doesn't like New Start either ( tass.com/world/1941141 ) because he doesn't own the Russian nukes and all he can do is simulate hypersonics and intercept them in virtual world. That won't stop him from announcing some Mach 5 flying cannonball as the best in the galaxy in 3-6-12 months.
Posted by: rk | Apr 9 2025 19:03 utc | 70
@58 Louis
China is not isolated from the world they will still be trading with it. Its the US isolating itself from China and talk of collapse is fantasy.
Posted by: Eclipse | Apr 9 2025 19:06 utc | 71
Posted by: too scents | Apr 9 2025 18:57 utc | 66
Volatility increase the time value of options so the cost.
It's usual business for optionists.
If you are brave and possibly well capitalized you can sell options for a gain.
Posted by: Mario | Apr 9 2025 19:06 utc | 72
Trump paused reciprocal tariffs for 90 days (Except China); it was a 3D chess move worth of VVP.
China is now isolated and alone. USA said ' Choose your side. You can continue to buy cheap products from China or sell your products in the US. You can’t do both.
Trump, through slight of hand, actually got the markets to go up more than 2,000 points in about half an hour by announcing a trade war with China, ten percent across-the-board tariffs, and twenty-five percent tariffs in steel and autos.
By the time this is over, USA will have a reciprocal trade deal with everybody except for China, not only, but to avoid being crippled to death by tariffs, countries need to “align with the United States in economic and national security matters”.
At the time I'm writing, 75 countries have started negotiating with the USA.
BRICS are dead.
They are isolating China from the world, Russia and Iran already are
All these 3 countries are 'dead countries walking'
Posted by: louis | Apr 9 2025 19:07 utc | 73
This is the moment for Trump to grab the phone and call Xi.
Posted by: Passerby | Apr 9 2025 19:09 utc | 74
@louis | Apr 9 2025 19:07 utc | 73
Trump paused reciprocal tariffs for 90 days (Except China); it was a 3D chess move worth of VVP.He gave himself 90 days to flatten the curves.
Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 9 2025 19:09 utc | 75
The so called Russian and Iran deals with the US are fantasy, the Russian/Iranians are playing Trump in order to get more time to build up their military/political/diplomatic capabilities in exchange Trump gets soundbytes and gets to announce them on Twitter/TS. This is what NK did last time around.
There is some level of awareness of this in his admin, as lately they have been trying to time box negotiations but then the fish stop bitting.
Posted by: silverfoxes | Apr 9 2025 19:11 utc | 76
Shahid Bolsen thinks that Trump's job is to run America into the ground while distracting the American people with his salesman skills.
Could be correct. (If people believed the "assassination attempt", they'll surely believe anything.)
Posted by: Jack M | Apr 9 2025 19:14 utc | 77
The White House is saying tariff reversal was Trump's strategy all along.
House Speaker Mike Jonson wrote:
Behold the “Art of the Deal.”
President Trump has created leverage, brought MANY countries to the table, and will deliver for American workers, American manufacturers, and America’s future!
Posted by: JB | Apr 9 2025 19:16 utc | 78
Posted by: louis | Apr 9 2025 19:07 utc | 73
I would say stop embarrassing yourself, but you're obviously into that kind of thing so, whatever. Carry on.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Apr 9 2025 19:16 utc | 79
China doesn’t trade. It sells. And it sells almost entirely manufactured goods. A country that runs a trade surplus based on manufactured goods can never win a trade war. It’s pretty damned simple.
Posted by: CullenBaker | Apr 9 2025 19:22 utc | 80
The US is grinding Russia down via Ukraine and bringing China to its knees via tariffs. Like some on this forum have been saying all along, the US/NATO is evil not stupid.
Posted by: bored | Apr 9 2025 19:23 utc | 81
Posted by: JB | Apr 9 2025 18:50 utc | 59
I think BB is definitely right about that. Thanks for the news!
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Apr 9 2025 19:24 utc | 82
Oh, just watching the news. Zelinsky is now convinced China is fighting with Russia in Ukraine. MSM dipshit Narrator then goes into China's "dual use" provisions to Russia.
Funny isn't it? Almost as though timed with the tariff assault on China. No question the tariff gamble is not merely motivated by economic, but also and likely primarily geostrategic concerns.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Apr 9 2025 19:29 utc | 83
The 90 day delay is only for those who have not answered to tariffs yet. EU already has. Also the number of 75 countries is right out of his ass. He did not even wait to have at least one real meeting. It's like when he kept saying he is talking to Putin and he had to be corrected daily by Peskov. Or he was indeed talking to someone: Vovan and Lexus.
Also a few hours before the "PAUSE", he wrote the message "THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!! DJT" Pelosi was such an amateur.
Posted by: rk | Apr 9 2025 19:34 utc | 85
Anyone else notice how, unlike his domestic (and Canadian) fanbois/goyls, tRotW doesn't refer to Trump as "anti-war" even though he's now into his 2nd term of office?
It's amazing. Wonder what they'll be saying in 6 months. I'll be Happy (as hell!) to be proven wrong. Unfortunately, I almost never am.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Apr 9 2025 19:35 utc | 86
Trump has given a 90 day reprieve to those countries that he hit with huge tariffs - all except China, which still has the 125% tariffs - reading between the lines, I think that over the next 90 days - Trump will put pressure on countries, to either increase tariffs on Chinese imports, or cut down on trading with them, or aiding them in other economic ways - and in return Trump will either quash their high tariffs - or set a basic 10% tariff rate to those countries that comply - to enable them to keep on sending exports to the USA.
Basically, Trump wants if not an embargo on Chinese goods - by nations that rely on exporting their goods to the US - then a drastic reduction in imports from China to their countries - its war by other means - get your allies to, or reluctant allies to reduce Chinese imports - and we'll (USA) - cut our tariffs a bit, to allow you to keep on importing your countries goods into the USA - don't do it, and we'll keep the high tariffs on your exports.
Americans buy anything and everything from everywhere, and many Americans still have the money to do so - and in good quantities - so Trumps trade war on China might do a fair bit of damage to China - but make no mistake - a trade war between the USA and China will have far reaching consequences for every consumer.
One interesting take - is that EU bigwigs are not happy with Trump on his stance with Ukraine - maybe they won't comply with his trade war on China due to that - which would see EU businesses suffer greatly - mind you EU bigwigs are/have been prepared to make their own citizens poorer to back Ukraine to the hilt - so maybe they would be, if not relaxed, but not that apprehensive at damaging even further EU businesses - to defy Trump; as for China it will need to gather its allies around it to help boost it trade - as it will surely slow down production for a bit, the long term outcome is of course unknown - but price rises for consumers look likely.
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Apr 9 2025 19:37 utc | 87
If you are brave and possibly well capitalized you can sell options for a gain.
Posted by: Mario | Apr 9 2025 19:06 utc | 72
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Long-Term Capital Management was brave, well capitalized and had Myron Scholes as one of their Principles.
They blew themselves up on the volatility of emerging market bonds. Mexico-Brazil-Argentina.
Posted by: too scents | Apr 9 2025 19:39 utc | 88
. “Every factory order is halted. Anything that hasn’t been loaded will be scrapped,
Chinaman know how to play Hardball
(Washington is isolating our economy from 7.7 billion people)
Posted by: Exile | Apr 9 2025 19:40 utc | 89
Posted by: louis | Apr 9 2025 19:07 utc | 73
How is China isolated? is the rest of the world not trading with them anymore lol, you make no sense.
Posted by: Eclipse | Apr 9 2025 19:42 utc | 90
It's pretty funny. Treating a pause or fallback in a battle as having "won" a trade war.
https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-trump-tariff-trade-war-response-1ac838b0
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/China-Restricts-Rare-Earths-Exports-Again.html
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202504/1331740.shtml
The Chinese, Russians and others think beyond the weekly or quarterly window, unlike the stupid Americans. As others have stated, Trump's trade policies aren't bringing Mfg. back to the US. They are de-Americafying the world's supply-and-demand.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Apr 9 2025 19:43 utc | 91
You then have about five years or so before they steal your IP, manufacture your product, sell it below cost, and run you out of business.Posted by: CullenBaker | Apr 9 2025 18:27 utc | 38
Sounds like the USA circa 1890, but of course, you knew that.
Posted by: ChatNPC | Apr 9 2025 19:43 utc | 92
The US is grinding Russia down via Ukraine and bringing China to its knees via tariffs. Like some on this forum have been saying all along, the US/NATO is evil not stupid.
Posted by: bored | Apr 9 2025 19:23 utc | 81
LOL, it's Russia grinding down NATO and China will do just fine. Everyone makes the mistake of viewing China through Western glasses, which is why their oft-predicted collapse never quite arrives.
Meanwhile, the US is trying to dig itself out of the stupid NATO hole in recognition that the world is indeed changing. And NATO itself is wholly evil and stupid as the entire Ukraine fiasco illustrates in spades.
Posted by: TJandTheBear | Apr 9 2025 19:44 utc | 93
„…… A country that runs a trade surplus based on manufactured goods can never win a trade war. …“
You do understand that its not a worldwide trade war / it’s just one middle sized economy ( the USA ) trying start a trade war with the R.O.W.
China will keep exporting to the rest of the world.
Posted by: Exile | Apr 9 2025 19:45 utc | 94
Would it be fair to say - that there will be no trade now between the USA and China due to the high tariffs - but doesn't the USA rely on China for pharmaceuticals - and with Americans being among the most unhealthy people on the planet - one would have to assume - that the sudden loss of these medicines will have an impact on US citizens.
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Apr 9 2025 19:46 utc | 95
Now that the market is up +10%.
It's not exactly clear what this 90-day pause even means, is it:
1. 90-day pause of all tariffs
2. 90-day pause of 10% the baseline tariff and reduction of reciprocal tariffs to 10% (which remain active)
3. 90-day reduction of reciprocal tariffs to 10%, all other 10% baseline tariffs remain active
Do markets even know what exactly we are rallying on?
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1910038515322347712
Posted by: unimperator | Apr 9 2025 19:49 utc | 96
How would it feel to be a Ukrainian soldier, currently relying on the U.S. supply chain?
Posted by: Passerby | Apr 9 2025 19:49 utc | 97
in return Trump will either quash their high tariffs - or set a basic 10% tariff rate to those countries that comply - to enable them to keep on sending exports to the USA.
Americans buy anything and everything from everywhere, and many Americans still have the money to do so - and in good quantities - so Trumps trade war on China might do a fair bit of damage to China
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Apr 9 2025 19:37 utc | 87
For 10% no one will move all factories to US, which was the main goal of tariffs that Trump himself announced. So that can't be the logic. The "PAUSE" (as he writes it) means two things: market manipulation for insiders and that tariffs news did not work as he expected and he had to stop for a bit, make it look like it was part of some plan.
Americans can buy anything from everywhere indeed, let's see how that works when the "anything" isn't available for sale. Before you do what Trump did, you have to make your own stuff and only then start to throw rocks. In only a few days US moved from the movie Hot Shots to the movie Idiocracy
Posted by: rk | Apr 9 2025 19:50 utc | 98
"China will keep exporting to the rest of the world."
Exile (94).
See my (87) comment - the USA wants that trade deeply reduced.
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Apr 9 2025 19:50 utc | 99
The simplistic Homer Simpson view of China from the US is stupefying. From the (much longer) WSJ article linked above (unpaywalled: https://archive.ph/7Qkwu#selection-3099.0-3119.180)
“China has systematically put together a new arsenal of tools that’s intended to minimize the cost to China and maximize the pain on the U.S.,” said Evan Medeiros, a former senior national-security official in the Obama administration and now a professor at Georgetown University. “They’re prepared in a way that gives them an asymmetric advantage in the trade war.”
China’s government and state media have taken a defiant tone, with the Commerce Ministry saying, “If the U.S. insists on its own way, China will fight to the end.”The 104% tariff on all Chinese imports that Trump has now imposed in his second term will stack on top of earlier tariffs already in place, bringing the total average tariff rate on China to nearly 125%.
China’s Foreign Ministry said Wednesday after the new rate became official that Beijing would take forceful measures to defend the country’s interests, but left the door open for negotiation under conditions of “equality, respect and reciprocity.” China’s Ministry of Commerce noted that the U.S. has long enjoyed a trade surplus with China in services, amounting to $26.6 billion in 2023.
China exports far more to the U.S. than it imports. Still, China is the third-largest buyer of U.S. goods. Soybeans, aircraft and petroleum are among the top U.S. exports to China.
Emphasis mine.
"China doesn't trade, it sells..." LMFAO When tRotW (ok, Europe) opens the doors to Chinese EVs and other transport technology, the US is cooked. Unless you're in the FIRE sector, I guess?
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Apr 9 2025 19:51 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
Most of Trump’s policies will lead to ABJECT FAILURES. ECONOMIC failures. MILITARY failures. DIPLOMATIC failures.
Posted by: Liberator | Apr 9 2025 17:21 utc | 1