Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
April 08, 2025

An Economic Advisor's Weird Theory

Steve Miran is the Chairman of President Trump's Council of Economic Advisors.

CEA Chairman Steve Miran Hudson Institute Event Remarks - The White House, Apr 7 2025

Today I’d like to discuss the United States’ provision of what economists call “global public goods,” for the entire world. First, the United States provides a security umbrella which has created the greatest era of peace mankind has ever known. Second, the U.S. provides the dollar and Treasury securities, reserve assets which make possible the global trading and financial system which has supported the greatest era of prosperity mankind has ever known.
...
Let me clarify that by “reserve currency,” I mean all the international functions of the dollar—private savings and trade included. I’ve often used the example that when private agents in two separate foreign countries trade with each other, it’s typically denominated in dollars because of America’s status as the reserve provider. That trade entails savings housed in dollar securities, often Treasurys. As a result of all this, Americans have been paying for peace and prosperity not just for themselves, but for non-Americans too.
...
I’m an economist and not a military strategist, so I’ll dwell more on trade than on defense, but the two are deeply connected. To see how it works, imagine two foreign nations, say China and Brazil, trading with each other. Neither country has a currency that is trusted, liquid, and convertible, which makes trading with each other challenging. However, because they can transact in U.S. dollars backed by U.S. Treasuries, they are able to trade freely with each other and prosper. Such trade can only occur because of U.S. military might ensuring our financial stability and the credibility of our borrowing. Our military and financial dominance cannot be taken for granted; and the Trump Administration is determined to preserve them.

From an economic standpoint the theory Miran describes is bonkers. "Savings housed in dollar securities, often Treasurys" are not U.S. savings as he implies. They are money the U.S. has borrowed, i.e. the savings of foreigners.

His example of the U.S. dollar enabling trade between Brazil and China is just as wrong as his treasuries theory:

Brazil, China ditch US dollar for trade payments, favour yuan - News.au, Mar 31 2023

Brazil has just cut a deal with China to ditch the US dollar when paying each other for trade goods. It’s the latest victory in Beijing’s long-term drive to stomp on the greenback and establish the yuan as the dominant international currency.

The deal, announced Thursday, has revived concerns about the US dollar’s future.

Brazil and China will directly exchange payments without first converting their currencies to a trusted third-party economy.

That’s the traditional role of the greenback.

These ain't just small numbers:

According to Chinese customs statistics, the bilateral trade volume between China and Brazil in 2023 was US$181.53 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.1 percent. Of this, China’s exports to Brazil amounted to US$59.11 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.3 percent, while imports from Brazil totaled US$122.42 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.9 percent.

Brazil is not alone in doing this. Several other big countries, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran etc., have dropped U.S. Dollar intermediation in trade with China.

The Trump administration is aware of the problem:

Elon Musk @elonmusk - 22:51 UTC · Mar 29, 2023

Serious issue. US policy has been too heavy-handed, making countries want to ditch the dollar.

Combined with excess government spending, which forces other countries to absorb a significant part of our inflation

Steve Miran says the U.S. military ensures the "financial stability and the credibility" of U.S. borrowing. It does so only in that it destroys small countries which are trying to turn away from trading in dollars. Iraq and Libya are prime examples of this. 

Brazil and China are too big to extort them. The consequences of Trump's tariff mania will show that again.

Posted by b on April 8, 2025 at 16:31 UTC | Permalink

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um

"First, the United States provides a security umbrella which has created the greatest era of peace mankind has ever known"... LOL... see y'all later!

Posted by: E | Apr 8 2025 16:35 utc | 1

Military might ensuring credibility of borrowing?
Is that a euphanism for extortion?

Posted by: Polli | Apr 8 2025 16:37 utc | 2

"Such trade can only occur because of U.S. military might ensuring our financial stability and the credibility of our borrowing." - and so it as always been as per Thomas Friedman's "hidden fist".

Posted by: foreigner | Apr 8 2025 16:42 utc | 3

Complete mafia tactics. Pay us or something might happen to your business, home, family..... glad the desperation of the US and Israel to try and stay on top has completely exposed their true colors finally. Going down in flames and trying to take the rest of the world with it, hoping they come back out on top because they've stolen the gold reserves of almost every country that ever trusted it plus every country they have invaded since WW2. Hope everyone backs away and lets them self destruct completely. Good riddance.

Posted by: Watzov | Apr 8 2025 16:43 utc | 4

"From an economic standpoint the theory Miran describes is bonkers. "Savings housed in dollar securities, often Treasurys" are not U.S. savings as he implies. They are money the U.S. has borrowed, i.e. the savings of foreigners."

Per Grok AI: As of the latest available data, foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury securities vary slightly depending on the exact timeframe and source, but I can provide a clear estimate based on information up to April 8, 2025.

In April 2024, foreign countries held approximately $7.9 trillion in U.S. Treasury securities, which accounted for about 22.9% of the total U.S. debt outstanding at that time (around $34.5 trillion). This figure encompasses all Treasury securities—bills, notes, and bonds—held overseas. By December 2024, posts on X suggest foreign holdings had risen to $8.5 trillion, with the total U.S. debt increasing to approximately $36.4 trillion (based on updates from the U.S. Department of the Treasury and other sources). This would imply a slightly lower percentage, around 23.4%, assuming no significant shifts in the proportion of foreign ownership.

Given that the current date is April 8, 2025, and considering the trend of gradual increases in total debt (projected to reach $37.07 trillion per some estimates), foreign holdings likely remain in the range of 23-25% of total U.S. Treasury securities. The Treasury International Capital (TIC) system and preliminary reports from the U.S. Department of the Treasury indicate that foreign ownership has hovered around 30% of publicly traded debt in recent years, but when factoring in the total debt (including intragovernmental holdings), the percentage drops.
For a precise figure as of April 2025, the most recent comprehensive data from the Treasury’s June 2024 survey (with final results due April 30, 2025) and monthly TIC updates suggest foreign holdings are still significant but not dominant. Adjusting for the growth in total debt to $37 trillion (a reasonable extrapolation from $36.4 trillion in March 2025), and assuming foreign holdings grew modestly to around $8.7 trillion (consistent with historical trends), the percentage of U.S. Treasury securities held overseas would be approximately 23.5%.

Thus, based on the best available data and reasonable extrapolation to April 8, 2025, about 23-25% of U.S. Treasury securities are held overseas. This range accounts for minor fluctuations in foreign investment and total debt growth since the last detailed reports.

Posted by: Mike P | Apr 8 2025 16:44 utc | 5

In his haste to reward his oligarch and Zionist paymasters, Trump is rapidly accelerating the decline in US power. Any attack upon Iran will display to the world the weakness of the US and trigger actions to both protect Iran and undermine the US by both Russia and China.

At the same time the tariff war will display how strong China is and how weak the US is, while driving the rest of the world to decouple from the US and join China in free trade. The Chinese know they have the advantage and will just keep squeezing until the US submits. Also, a surplus country cannot provide the reserve currency so the new tariffs directly undermine the US reserve currency status.

By not walking away from Ukraine at the outset Trump is now engaged in a losing war in Ukraine, where Russia will crush whatever the West sends.

By extending the 2017 tax cuts, lavishing yet more tax cuts on the rich, and filling all the state oligarch troughs to the brim, he is making the US state funding crisis much worse. While also driving resistance in the general population by slashing state services that benefit them and prosecuting citizens and residents for exercising their free speech rights.

All End of Empire stuff. All understandable with idiot advisors like Steve Miran above, it should be called the Council of Delusional Economic Fools.

Posted by: Roger Boyd | Apr 8 2025 16:46 utc | 6

B, why do you expect anything serious from this bunch of bozos, when it comes to the economy? I mean, they consider VAT as tariffs that are specifically designed and levied on US goods, as if all other foreign and national goods were actually exempted of VAT.


Polli | Apr 8 2025 16:37 utc | 2
"Military might ensuring credibility of borrowing?
Is that a euphanism for extortion?"

Since the invasion of Iraq, I've felt that the long-term future of the US would be to go full mobster and racket smaller countries for "protection money", as in "Pay us and we don't bomb you", the way some barbarian tribes were paid off not to raid the late Roman empire.

That's the good thing with Trump 2. Nobody will ever be able to say "Oh, come on, the US are not like that" and "That's just a temporary problem, they'll go back to elect some better guy next time and everything will be back to normal". The predatory nature of the USA as a country, as a society and as a culture is now open for all to see, while it was still mostly hidden and done undercover when Biden, Obama or Clinton were in the office. Even the traitorous scum ruling Europe can't hide it anymore from their citizens, and sooner or later, their peoples will ask them why they've been subservient for so many decades to such a hateful regime that reigns in DC.

Posted by: Clueless Joe | Apr 8 2025 16:46 utc | 7

And the morning stock market rally based on Bessent and Trump bullshit? Already pretty much reversed as reality seeps back in. The big players made good though by sucking in the dupes in another pump and dump.

Posted by: Roger Boyd | Apr 8 2025 16:48 utc | 8

US dollars can buy anything in the world, yuan and reals cannot. Also China keeps it's currency pegged which makes it's value suspect. Finally there's no guarantee you can go to China and just buy anything with yuan. It's a communist country which makes ownership murky and suspect. They may not let you use your surplus to buy the good stuff, probably just more exports.

There's good reasons things are the way they are, which can change but it won't change unless it's profitable to do so, or changed by force.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Apr 8 2025 16:49 utc | 9

That silly notion of "without us NOTHING would be possible". Believe it or not - yes, it would. Humans have a long history of dealing with - and solving - pretty complex problems. Don't for even one second think that people of other nations are some subhumans incapable of resolving issues on their own.
In fact, we could discuss the opposite - would the world see more benefit if things didn't happen as they did, having US as the main controller of financial and economical weather? We seem to be a little bit too accustomed to that Hollywood story of "US being the world's saviour". Many advances we see nowadays are purely a product of technological availability, not some genius politics or (God forbid) financiers, brokers, market manipulators, patent holders, lawyers and such. In fact, we could have already solved all of the major worldwide issues if those mentioned didn't put conditions on technology sharing and stopped dividing people for their own interests.

Posted by: jorgen | Apr 8 2025 16:51 utc | 10

Let's not forget the past couple centuries of history either. The US has been 100% safe and run relatively smoothly. China has been run over a few times, civil war and otherwise. Brazil has an unstable society as well, although it's relatively well insulated from external invasions.

If your hoarding generational wealth for centuries these details make a big difference.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Apr 8 2025 16:54 utc | 11

No need to go back to April of 2024. Here are foreign holders of US debt up to Jan of this year:
https://ticdata.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/slt_table5.html

Here is US debt overall through end of last month:
https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-statement-public-debt/summary-of-treasury-securities-outstanding#reports-and-files
(Entire.pdf)

$8.5T foreign holdings of us debt
$36.1T total us debt

If you read the overall debt closely looking at the maturation date, the us has $9.2T to roll over this year, so the rate on the 10 year bond is very important to us government interest payments.

I hope this finds you well

Posted by: ockham | Apr 8 2025 17:02 utc | 12

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Apr 8 2025 16:54 utc | 11

You can use Swiss franc with no problems. It's not that USA have some special virtue, it's only that thay have, or possibly had, the military power. A hundred year ago or so, usd was not the reserve currency, and there is no reason to be shure it will always be.

Posted by: Mario | Apr 8 2025 17:03 utc | 13

thanks b...

the camp bretton woods agreement, along with oil denominated in us$, and other resources denominated as such, favours the us$ and usa... the voting rights with the imf, world bank, swift and etc. etc. - all byproducts of ''winning'' the war.. usa has been riding on the exhaust fumes from the aftermath of ww2 for a long time and have now reached ( past 20 years, when they are not directly starting wars) a point where they want to levy financial sanctions or war on anyone who doesn't go along with their ''king of the castle'' approach... trump is the perfect president to be king of the castle.. the problem is the foundation of the castle is eroding very quickly here and his actions are going to hasten it's demise.. being a salesman, he is probably figuring out a way to sell the castle to the highest bidder, or bidders... it is another fine example of a move towards bankruptcy - something else the 'king of the castle' has first hand experience with..

the american empire is over... trimming around the edges isn't going to matter in the long run...

Posted by: james | Apr 8 2025 17:08 utc | 14

So stupid it not only hurts but is hilarious at the same time.

Please, have mercy :)

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Apr 8 2025 17:11 utc | 15

@13 Mario.

Switzerland is stable, true but it's too small to fit the uncounted trillions of dollars sloshing around to store. Secondly I dunno where you live but I can't use it to buy things here. I can use the usd though.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Apr 8 2025 17:14 utc | 16

What really perturbs me of all this is the fact that Trump is going to roll out some special incentive to oligarchs around the world, offering a special gold card for 5 million dollars for US citizenship, if they want to open a business in the United States. I guess the entire United States is a commodity. Up for sale. And its citizens are just employees, ready to be hired and fired at a whim. And may I ask how Treasury Secretary Bessent, a former partner of George Soros, was able to land that job? And I wonder how much the Soros enterprise made in this past market meltdown, since Soros made his fortune by shorting the markets?

Posted by: Jose Garcia | Apr 8 2025 17:15 utc | 17

First, the United States provides a security umbrella which has created the greatest era of peace mankind has ever known.

Miran touts the benefits of a protection racket and it goes downhill from there.

Musk pleads to hide the iron fist in a velvet glove.

Our overlords are looking after the sanctity of private property for our benefit. We should all be thankful for the strong enclosure they have erected and not try to escape.

Posted by: too scents | Apr 8 2025 17:15 utc | 18

the United States provides a security umbrella which has created the greatest era of peace mankind has ever known....

Tell that to the millions who are resting "peacefully" underground in Korea, Vietnam, Yugoslavia, Libya, and Iraq. The only "freedom" being considered by the politicians, like Trump or Lindsay Graham, is the freedom of US-led capitalism to run the world in its own interest. Isn’t it time we workers consider a world liberated from US bullying and the right of big companies to profit from the lives and deaths of the people of the world?

Posted by: zeke2u | Apr 8 2025 17:18 utc | 19

@ Clueless Joe | Apr 8 2025 16:46 utc | 7

thanks.. agree with you..

@ ockham | Apr 8 2025 17:02 utc | 12 - thanks..

Posted by: james | Apr 8 2025 17:21 utc | 20

Hand, The Invisible is really a barbaric mafia don we are to be grateful for.

This is the global financial theatre of our civilization war and the propaganda is thick.

This certainly will push BRICS+ financial efforts to bypass the US dollar faster....what will the interim time frame look like?

Trump is the front pushing US dollar dominance behind the curtain of these other military proxy wars.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Apr 8 2025 17:24 utc | 21

Finally there's no guarantee you can go to China and just buy anything with yuan.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Apr 8 2025 16:49 utc | 9

Neither can you use usd or euro to buy serious assets, that is one thing that has become very clear lately.

Yes, you can buy what they allow.

Posted by: New | Apr 8 2025 17:25 utc | 22

US dollars can buy anything in the world, yuan and reals cannot.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Apr 8 2025 16:49 utc | 9

---

I'm pretty sure that money is fungible. That is after all one of its principle properties.

Posted by: too scents | Apr 8 2025 17:26 utc | 23

the american empire is over... trimming around the edges isn't going to matter in the long run...

Posted by: james | Apr 8 2025 17:08 utc | 14

First of all the previous post was an error typing

Posted by: New | Apr 8 2025 17:25 utc | 22

should read Posted by: Newbie | Apr 8 2025 17:25 utc | 22

As for this american empire, it was just stewardship of the late british empire.

Theirs is still a log way in the future, like 300-400 years

Posted by: Newbie | Apr 8 2025 17:28 utc | 24

it should be called the Council of Delusional Economic Fools.
Posted by: Roger Boyd | Apr 8 2025 16:46 utc | 6

Fools United Council of Katastrophic Economic Delusion

Posted by: waynorinorway | Apr 8 2025 17:29 utc | 25

To paraphrase: "To save the world we have to destroy it"
JMHO, these tariff wars are going to have all sorts of intended/unforeseen consequences, most of them bad for the US.
Better stock on popcorn (still made in the US, lol). Lots of countries are bending the knee, begging for relief, but Trump (for now) would even let Israel off the hook... But the big fish, China, imho, will continue the tit for tat retliation until something breaks, which I believe will be the US. The stock market is the canary in the coal mine. If it dies, the consequences will be widespread and bad... Are you not entertained???

Posted by: ctiger | Apr 8 2025 17:31 utc | 26

I'm pretty sure that money is fungible. That is after all one of its principle properties.

Posted by: too scents | Apr 8 2025 17:26 utc | 23

That's one of the points they make, fungible but unless you want to buy right away it can be significantly volatile.

The part about getting "money" and knowing you can save it in usd until such time as you want to buy something somewhere and you can be sure you can exchange your savings for that particular one and to have lost little, or even gained in the mean time.

A reserve currency, and its treasuries, is something you trust to be liquid and stable.

Interesting that brazil being ready to save in yuan (as they have a surplus) is probably a good bet, if anything close to plaza accord go into action, yuan should re-value against usd.

Posted by: Newbie | Apr 8 2025 17:34 utc | 27

@22 new

Re:buying with the usd.

I'll ignore the euro, it's not going to last it's already undergone a few crisis' and it's not bound together by a unified state.

As for the usd becoming less useful in buying US assets this is true and a factor in making it less valuable, hence reducing the some of the motives in using it.

Nonetheless it leaps and bounds better than the yuan in that respect still. I do acknowledge that this can change but right now?

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Apr 8 2025 17:35 utc | 28

"and assuming foreign holdings grew modestly to around $8.7 trillion (consistent with historical trends), the percentage of U.S. Treasury securities held overseas would be approximately 23.5%."

---

the calculation must be made on the debt in the hands of the public, which is a smaller figure and therefore the result is higher.

Posted by: Simon | Apr 8 2025 17:37 utc | 29

Debt held by the public: $29 trillion

8.5 / 29 = ca. 30%

Posted by: Simon | Apr 8 2025 17:41 utc | 30

First, the United States Provides a Security Umbrella - Thru

USAID – About Propaganda – Coups – Color Revolutions – Regime
Change – BioWeapons - War/Drug Profit$$$

Posted by: JohnF | Apr 8 2025 17:42 utc | 31

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Apr 8 2025 17:14 utc | 16

I live in EU and I cannot buy anything here with USD I must use EUR.

AFAIK you can buy in USD, outside of USA, in countries that have a weak currency and often have a black market for currencies, but this is often true with EUR, GBP and other strong currencies.

Posted by: Mario | Apr 8 2025 17:46 utc | 32

If the BRICS+ nations actually stuck together economically as well as militarily, there's no stopping them. Russia, India, China, Brazil, Iran, massive countries with billions of people and more resources than they know what to do with. And yet....

Posted by: bored | Apr 8 2025 17:47 utc | 33

That's the good thing with Trump 2. Nobody will ever be able to say "Oh, come on, the US are not like that" and "That's just a temporary problem, they'll go back to elect some better guy next time and everything will be back to normal".

Posted by: Clueless Joe | Apr 8 2025 16:46 utc | 7

I guess that's exactly what the world will hear when some charismatic guy like Obama is selected again: "yeah, Trump. oh, well, that was a big mistake, we've learned, we're back now, greater than ever! oh, and sorry for setting the world on fire. doesn't make sense to clean that up so we will keep Greenland & Canada – look, here's the next enemy threatening to take away our freedom!"

And at least Europe will cheer: "yes, they are back, let's help them to get on the feet again. yippee! Europe will introduce the Help America Initiative and send over a couple of billions."

With decades of indoctrination and propaganda, they are all quite deep in some mental shithole so that they will have to do it. Otherwise they would go crazy instantly.

Posted by: Zet | Apr 8 2025 17:50 utc | 34

"From an economic standpoint the theory Miran describes is bonkers. "Savings housed in dollar securities, often Treasurys" are not U.S. savings as he implies. They are money the U.S. has borrowed, i.e. the savings of foreigners."
Yes, well, despite the relative decline of US industrial production (but not so much in agricultural production) a lot of treasuries are domestic. Also, yes, well, foreign purchases of are indeed potential debts of the US government. That's why some have floated schemes to convert some (all?) US treasuries held by foreigners into perpetuity bonds, where the principal is never repaid. A Mar-a-Lago accord, reportedly promoted by Miran himself, to effectively devalue the dollar so that the US can retake its so-called fair share (according to Trump) is another possibility, unaffected by who holds title to USTs. Effective inflation is a time-honored way of paying debts down, at the expense of the creditors---in this scenario also including foreign holders of USTs. And of course, the US could theoretically simply sequester foreign held treasuries. That would be a version of selective bankruptcy, which is a huge moral no-no in liberal economic and political theory, if morals matter. Aside from these considerations, there's the question, why is it always bad for the US government to take foreigners' money, and pay interest some time down the line? Some might think that this is an economic mechanism smacking of imperialism. The practical question is, when will foreigners stop parking their money in USTs as a safe haven? They don't buy them to make money but to protect money. They won't in general stop until they have a better safe haven, if not more profitable ways to make money such as investing in their own national economies.

I think the key takeaway from Miran's remarks was:

Such trade can only occur because of U.S. military might ensuring our financial stability and the credibility of our borrowing. Our military and financial dominance cannot be taken for granted; and the Trump Administration is determined to preserve them.

The open confession that Trump is not a populist of any sort, and is totally committed to imperialism, and that the US dollar is founded on blood, not gold, nor even its share in world production, is notable. The larger portion of MoA commentariat suffering illusions about Trump should take note. [Trump Chaos Agent of Accelerationism do wrong I think because accelerationism is a crock, thus they simply function as high-brow apologists.]

There are three aspects to the dollar. There is the famous reserve currency function, which by the way gives the US substantial (as I understand it) advantages in arbitraging other currencies. Individual opportunities for such arbitrage occur only temporarily, but over time repeated because inevitable so-called market imperfections give the currency is widest use the edge. (See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triangular_arbitrage for a start.) The less important this arbitrage is, the less important the current moves away from Swift/denominating exchanges in dollars are. Worse, the setting up of new systems always threatens merely to give some other currency the arbitrage edge, making it difficult to set up such a system. Simply dealing bilaterally will almost certainly create issues with relatively permanent imbalances in trade, where one country accumulate a foreign currency it has less use for. A reserve currency serves legitimate uses in trade, as well as nefarious ones. For one thing, it serves to break the golden chain, which could threaten to strangle world trade due to dearth of gold aka money. Overall a smaller world economy has less growth or worse because large markets have greater opportunities, if only due to economies of scale.

Another aspect is, the dollar is the currency issued by the de facto lender of last resort, the US Federal Reserve. See Adam Tooze's The Crash, for mind-numbing detail demonstrating I think the Fed acted as such. Despite economists' repeated rediscoveries of cure for capitalist crisis, financial crises on a large scale are weathered best when there is such a lender. Doing without such a lender would tend to depress growth worldwide by increasing the potential risk.

And a third aspect is, provision of liquidity. This is the role provided by the USTs. World economy is capitalist/imperialist. They need liquidity for financial operations, which are and have always been essential to capitalist growth. In English the role of the Bank of England and the English public debt, or in the US, the achievements of the Federalists (well, maybe essentially Hamilton?) depended on government debt. Even in the earliest phases concentration of capital in the hands of the winners of speculative bubbles like tulip mania or the Mississippi or the South Sea bubble ultimately concentrated capital, however much they hurt the losers.

The fall of the dollar is not a thing until all three functions of the dollar are replaced by something else (or another country becomes the top imperialist power, if that's an improvement?)

Posted by: steven t johnson | Apr 8 2025 17:51 utc | 35

Please excuse the error in bolding code. Only Miran's remarks were meant to be bolded! My bad.

Posted by: steven t johnson | Apr 8 2025 17:53 utc | 36

"a security umbrella which has created the greatest era of peace mankind has ever known"

Sure. Bomb it to rubble & call it peace.

Too bad the WH site isn't open to comnents. That could be fun.

Posted by: Mary | Apr 8 2025 17:53 utc | 37

The US has been 100% safe and run relatively smoothly. China has been run over a few times, civil war and otherwise. Brazil has an unstable society as well, although it's relatively well insulated from external invasions.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Apr 8 2025 16:54 utc | 11

Right, the US was 100% safe for those natives, the slaves, or even Joe Average from Kentucky...

Oh, and yes, sure, all this unstable countries – the US tried to stabilize them with USAID and NED but hey, you can just do so much if they don't want the generous help of the US... right? How can they say no to free bombs?

Posted by: Zet | Apr 8 2025 17:55 utc | 38

Fiat and crypto currencies are DEBT measures

Gold, silver and commodities are ASSET measures

When the music stops you want to be holding more assets than debts and only use the debt tools as necessary until ????

Posted by: psychohistorian | Apr 8 2025 17:57 utc | 39

Just as Russia's military is more than a match for the US military, China's economy is more than a match for the US economy.
Instead of waiting for the Chinese to call, it would have been better for Trump to call the Chinese. The US would have been given a dignified retreat.
In trying to maintain US supremacy, Trump may well be digging its grave. A USA where life is good is possible - but only if the USA minds its own business and stays within its borders.

Posted by: Passerby | Apr 8 2025 17:58 utc | 40

US dollars can buy anything in the world, yuan and reals cannot.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Apr 8 2025 16:49 utc | 9

Except when you've (or the seller has) been sanctioned.

Posted by: Zet | Apr 8 2025 17:59 utc | 41

In general, a country with an export surplus cannot be used as a reserve currency. In the case of China-Brazil trade, China is in deficit even as it has a large surplus overall. The modest number of countries in surplus wrt China, ag.resource exporters, can accept yuan because there will be a demand from the those in deficit with China (most of the west) for Juan.
However, overall China tends to suck in foreign reserves whereas the world needs a supply of such reserves because of their excess savings and poor investment options. For now, belt/road foreign investments/loans soak up their foreign surplus.
Imo China would be better off with balanced trade and more internal consumption. Trump tariffs might push them in that direction.

Posted by: John k | Apr 8 2025 17:59 utc | 42

You can say the US dollar is a turd floating in a toilet bowl. You would be correct. The problem for you is that every other currency in the world isn’t floating at all and is at the bottom of the bowl.

Now, I understand you Germans and Europeans might not get that analogy with the toilet technology gap that exists. For you I would say that the dollar is the great fetid turd sitting proudly on the shelf stinking up the room while the others are diarrhea splatters on the scatological torture devices you refer to as toilets.

Posted by: CullenBaker | Apr 8 2025 17:59 utc | 43

@Posted by: Zet | Apr 8 2025 17:55 utc | 38

And that thing called the US Civil War. China has been stable since 1949, and it is a nation on the upswing while the US is on its downswing. Following a downward trend is not a good thing. The real incomes of the Chinese population are also rising for the vast majority, while falling for the vast majority of Americans (when actual inflation is taken into account).

In many ways the Chinese population is significantly more free than the US one. With a massively successful private sector and a state managed for the benefit of the people not just the few.

Posted by: Roger Boyd | Apr 8 2025 18:02 utc | 44

I think this might help explain why the lecture delivered by Steve Miron was a load of drivel. I Jewgled Hudson Institute thinking it could be associated with the Michael(?) Hudson Karlof1 pays attention to.

But not so...
According to Wikipedia "Hudson Institute is an American conservative think tank based in Washington, D.C.[8][9][10] It was founded in 1961 in Croton-on-Hudson, New York, by futurist Herman Kahn and his colleagues at the RAND Corporation."

And Nikki Hayley and a Douglas Feith are among its leading lights.

So Neocon trash in = magical thinking out.

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Apr 8 2025 18:05 utc | 45

Jorgen 10

“Many advances we see nowadays are purely a product of technological availability”

Yep, taking undue credit for the Industrial Revolution and the oil age capacity and productivity over centuries… as a casus belli no less!!

Posted by: E | Apr 8 2025 18:05 utc | 46

Steve Miran. Joe Biden was only very brain dead. This guy can hallucinate.

Posted by: elmagnostic | Apr 8 2025 18:11 utc | 47

What was last BRICS summit all about ? Clearing.
US administration didn't take notice .. and apparently didn't understood how it can works.
How many Chinese cars can you buy for how many Russian LNG ? They apparently still don't have a clue ...

Posted by: Hiro Masamune | Apr 8 2025 18:14 utc | 48

@Posted by: John k | Apr 8 2025 17:59 utc | 42

There is the trade balance, then services balance and then the capital account transactions (investment and lending flows).

China's trade surplus in 2024 was US$992 billion (5.6% of GDP), its current account (include goods AND services) was US$422 billion (2.2% of GDP), and the capital account was slightly negative. China could significantly increase foreign investment and foreign lending to provide RMB to the world if it so wished. This is exactly what the US did in the post-WW2 period, recycling its trade surpluses and more into major ownership of foreign assets.

China has been very clever in recycling some of its massive US$ holdings into foreign loans and investments, which do not require it to provide RMB and therefore do not affect the foreign exchange rate. With the US shutting off the world with tariffs, greatly reducing their ability to earn US dollars to pay for US imports and debt and interest payments, it opens the door for China to play a much bigger role by providing more external financing through investments and loans. That will make nations significantly less dependent upon the US.

Trump is being extremely deceitful in only taking about goods, as most countries run a services deficit with the US that significantly offsets their good surplus. Countries should respond by developing their own financial services and cutting off the US financiers.

Posted by: Roger Boyd | Apr 8 2025 18:16 utc | 49

It's 104% tariff for China now. How high can it go?

Someone commented that Trump once said he would impose 100% tariff against China if China takes Taiwan. So China may be better off to just take Taiwan now to get that 100% instead of 104%. That is 4% saving. /sarc

Posted by: LuRenJia | Apr 8 2025 18:18 utc | 50

Something I posted some time ago: “The US$ is backed by a Carrier Battle Group in every ocean.

The problem facing the US now is those CBGs (plus its 800-odd global military bases) are no longer invincible, forming fat and juicy targets for anyone so equipped and minded to do so. So now the question arises as to how the US can enforce its currency hegemony when the means of enforcement are no longer guaranteed to be effective?

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Apr 8 2025 18:18 utc | 51

39 psycho

“Crypto is DEBT” … I would grant that all crypto EXCEPT satoshis require permission (much like all fiat too , aml/kyc, legal tender laws, etc)

I think most barflies remember the REEE-ing about satoshis using too much energy that the network is going to “boil the oceans” … I’m afraid I’m going to have hold your feet to the fire to pick ONE and ONLY ONE from the below:

1. Satoshis use too much energy

2. Satoshis are not backed by anything

If you would do that, perhaps we could have a reasonable debate about the ideas

Posted by: E | Apr 8 2025 18:20 utc | 52

1. Satoshis use too much energy
Posted by: E | Apr 8 2025 18:20 utc | 52

It’s not the energy, it’s the entropy.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Apr 8 2025 18:23 utc | 53

"The US$ is backed by a Carrier Battle Group in every ocean”

Nah

The US$ is backed by the core of the 'death star': CHIPS

https://www.theclearinghouse.org/payment-systems/CHIPS

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clearing_House_Interbank_Payments_System

Posted by: Simon | Apr 8 2025 18:26 utc | 54

Jeremy 53

Now compare/contrast to the entropy of miran’s vision

Posted by: E | Apr 8 2025 18:31 utc | 55

Posted by: Simon | Apr 8 2025 18:26 utc | 54

Unless I’ve missed it, there’s nothing in either of your links referring to the backing of the US$. All you’ve done is linked to a payment clearing system; such systems are agnostic about the currency they handle, CHIPS would work equally as well if it handled quatloos or latinum sheets.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Apr 8 2025 18:33 utc | 56

Yeah, but can China survive four years without the US market. Because that’s how long the tariffs are here for if they choose to go tit for tat. Trump is not running again. He doesn’t care. It’s unlikely that even if the Republicans lose badly in the midterms that there will be a veto proof majority that in Congress. So, the tariffs are here for nearly four more years no matter what. Can China do without the US market that long. I doubt it.

The US can, especially as countries come groveling to cut deals. Trump’s position only gets stronger as manufacturers flee China and global supply chains rearrange.

And if China can survive all that and prosper, great. The US will do so as well and maybe everybody will be better off in the end.

Posted by: CullenBaker | Apr 8 2025 18:34 utc | 57

"such systems are agnostic about the currency they handle"

---

Thanks for the laugh

Posted by: Simon | Apr 8 2025 18:36 utc | 58

Hoarsewhisperer | Apr 8 2025 18:05 utc | 45--

That's an understandable error. Michael Hudson did actually work for the Hudson Inst. But his politics and economics aren't at all in common. He's in the process of producing a paper showing how diametrically opposed Trump's tariffs and his idealization of the Gilded Age are from what his idiot advisors are coughing up. Today he has a somewhat hastily posted transcript of a talk that discusses some of what he intends to write, "How Private Banking Replaced Public Money", which goes well beyond tariffs.

I await other events to occur today for my impending article to give the tariff issue a short break, but one Gym rat provided this article that I suggest, "China’s tariffs as a Mike Tyson knockout punch to America", which as the title suggests presents a very different view. For those with translation software, Pepe Escobar pointed to the article in Guancha that looks at Southeast Asia's response, " Singapore, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Thailand have their own ideas". And there's lots of other international activity--BRICS and SCO are talking mutual coordinated responses, for example. And I should note that the transcript of last week's Hudson/Wolff chat that deals with the tariffs is now available "Can the World Unite Against U.S. Trade Weaponization?".

One last link to note is one I cited in my last article that links to seven different studies that examined Trump 1.0"s tariff performances. Here's what the autor at that link summarized from those studies:

The track record of tariffs since 2018 has been clear; they did not ‘bring back the jobs’ and rejuvenate American manufacturing. Imports did not abate, and America’s trade deficit widened. Economically, they did not deliver on the promise. Politically, they energise the disaffected, but that is all.

There is mounting evidence from Trump’s first term and its legacy about the efficacy of tariffs insofar as their stated aims are concerned. The evidence leans heavily towards demonstrating that tariffs were at best neutral in effect, or worse, counterproductive. [My Emphasis]

I can imagine what Wolff and Hudson would have to say about Miran's verbal diarrhea and his complete detachment from reality.

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 8 2025 18:37 utc | 59

Trump up the tariffs on China to 104%.
Let's see how China does with it.

Posted by: Surferket | Apr 8 2025 18:37 utc | 60

The European Union has agreed to Trump's demand to purchase $350 billion worth of LNG and oil from USA.

Wow.... as bad as tariff effects are in US, EU doesn't leave any opportunity to shoot itself in the foot, leg or head unused. The EU is in a VERY weak position, their economy can't survive a month without being able to compete or export into US market.

https://x.com/Zlatti_71/status/1909674800496177216

Posted by: unimperator | Apr 8 2025 18:38 utc | 61

Posted by: Simon | Apr 8 2025 18:36 utc | 58

Well, thank you too, for your detailed and in-depth explanation...

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Apr 8 2025 18:39 utc | 62

"can China survive four years without the US market"

---

US market is around 3% China GDP

Posted by: Simon | Apr 8 2025 18:40 utc | 63

Team Trump appear to be implementing the “Mar-a-Lago accord” to restructure the global economic system. It’s all set out in the paper Miran published in November 2024 entitled

“A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System”.

https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/638199_A_Users_Guide_to_Restructuring_the_Global_Trading_System.pdf

Posted by: Jax | Apr 8 2025 18:42 utc | 64

Rhetorically speaking, is there anything that amerikkka can't weaponize?? AFAIK, amerikkka can ALWAYS go lower in morality.

Posted by: LuRenJia | Apr 8 2025 18:48 utc | 65

It's pretty easy to debunk Trump team's fhetodic.

Many countries having a trade surplus with the US are not abusing the US for two reasons. One is that the US promised those countries accea to the US market in exchange for a cashflow those couhtries contribute to as interest paid to US controlled lending institutions and that is a good deal for the US. Second reason is that US consumers get good prices on products the US can't make at home.

Now why are computer chips made in the Chinese province of Taiwan? First, during the 70's, plabe loads of Chinese students went to US Universities to study Physics and Engineering, and tgey returned home to work on technological devices in local companies. Semiconductor manufcturing is very polluring and the island has suffered much pollution. I get that from my neighbour who still owns an appartment in the area and managed a company in China for many years. Here again, the US has got a good deal: the US got chep chips in exchange for pollution and hard work. The US was not cheated.

Qnce all the cashflows and balance sheets are layed out from all entities including institutions and individuals then one can find out who gains and who loses, That is bot goihg to happen. The fihal conclusion is that the rhetoric is empty and the purpose of Trunp team ia to cover an imminent escalation in violence and intimidation from the Trump administration.

Pepe Escobar yesterday reported on the use of a new type of US made bomb against populated areas in Yemen. Others have reported on the Israels using similar bombs on civilian areas in Gaza.

So is the purpose of Trunp rhetoric: to fit the world within the limited scope of his own perspective. This is pure madness.

Posted by: Richard L | Apr 8 2025 18:52 utc | 66

Not to change the subject. I would expect the end of the war between Iran and Israel could not be other than the destruction of both nations so as to render both entire non-entities.

War and History more than rhyme throughout the human millennia. If Iran and Israel terminate their own nations as the sides are hurriedly preparing it should come without surprise to anyone observing History/War. It obviously isn't about winning.

Posted by: elmagnostic | Apr 8 2025 18:52 utc | 67

I read a news blurb earlier attributed to FOX News--"China will pay for new tariff hikes." Now, most of the bar understands that tariffs are a tax on consumption, not on the exporting of goods. So, what we have is Trump's favorite network spreading Fake News, and a Howler at that. I should have clicked the link to provide the evidence, provided FOX hasn't recognized its massive gaff and pulled it.

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 8 2025 18:52 utc | 68

US to Remove Panama Canal from China's Influence - US Defense Secretary Hegseth

US State Department: The Indo-Pacific region must be freed from China's unfair economic policies.

Posted by: Justpassinby | Apr 8 2025 18:53 utc | 69

In many ways the Chinese population is significantly more free than the US one. With a massively successful private sector and a state managed for the benefit of the people not just the few.

Posted by: Roger Boyd | Apr 8 2025 18:02 utc | 44

Aye, so true!

Oh, and in regard to your blog post of yesterday (the following is taken from the comment section):

>> "They keep testing the possibility of a CDU/CSU - AfD alliance, and making sure that the AfD are the only real alternative."

Just for your interest: a couple days ago the AfD reached parity with the CDU/CSU and now the party base of CDU is starting to demand to abolish the "Brandmauer" (firewall, the imaginary segregation between "democratic" parties and the AfD)... so, you're spot-on again!

Posted by: Zet | Apr 8 2025 18:59 utc | 70

Trump has got the Midas touch. What comes out of his mouth is kryptonite for the markets.

Posted by: too scents | Apr 8 2025 19:00 utc | 71

Brazil has just cut a deal with China to ditch the US dollar when paying each other for trade goods. It’s the latest victory in Beijing’s long-term drive to stomp on the greenback and establish the yuan as the dominant international currency.

Never confuse Settlement with Pricing or the holding of surpluses of currency.
Too many people think de-dollarisation is easy - it ain't.

I'm sure that when China or Brazil pays the other for a transaction the currency is Not Dollars.
But I'm pretty sure the price is set in dollars, with the exchange rate set according to the central banks fixing rates 2 days before settlement.
And anyone who ends up with large profits continue to keep them in USD.

Changing the settlement currency is trivially easy and has not real effect.
Changing the pricing currency is very high risk and extremely unlikely, particularly in commodities like Oil where very long term contracts are drawn up and there are a huge array of dollar hedging instruments either party can use.
Changing the Reserve currency is really hard. If a Business, or a country or a large drug dealer has multi-billion dollar equiv. to place, name a country where you can place it is $1 billion hits, in liquid safe short term assets and get it back just as quick.

Many of us want to see de-dollarisation happen, but lets stop pretending.

Posted by: Michael Droy | Apr 8 2025 19:02 utc | 72

65 LuRenJia

It has been claimed that amerikkka could weaponize satoshis, but I don’t see it personally… it has 16 years of permissionless history at this point… best they could do is pump the price after trying to get hold of as much as possible (I.e. Silk Road coins)… even the internet remains somewhat permissionless (at the corporation/nation state level)

Posted by: E | Apr 8 2025 19:06 utc | 73

@Jose Garcia | Tue, 08 Apr 2025 17:15:00 GMT | 17

I guess the entire United States is a commodity. Up for sale.

There's this story how the Top Gun flick was filmed on an aircraft carrier at sea. During sunrise on the flight deck, the ship suddenly turns, so the movie director sees the Captain, who states, "Sir, this a warship of the US Navy. It will turn whenever and wherever it wants!" - The director produces his cheque book, underwrites for a huge sum and hands to the Captain. The ship then turned back on its old course.

Posted by: persiflo | Apr 8 2025 19:07 utc | 74

US market is around 3% China GDP

Posted by: Simon | Apr 8 2025 18:40 utc | 63

___________________

Well, good then this is all much ado about nothing…a tempest in a teapot if you will. With the US market being so inconsequential to China it follows that it is inconsequential to the US as well since our GDP is larger than theirs. Both countries will be fine, I’m sure.

Posted by: CullenBaker | Apr 8 2025 19:10 utc | 75

Posted by: too scents | Apr 8 2025 19:00 utc | 71

It seems more mierda touch. 🙂

Posted by: Mario | Apr 8 2025 19:11 utc | 76

As previously pontificated Biden started the cessation of use of the dollar for trade and Trump has now sealed its fate amazingly with a even greater destructive abuse.
These two presidents have ensured the cessation of use of the dollar for trade settlements.
Per capita the USA and the EU use a very very large amount of energy and both are being ended.
The EU gang is on board 100%.
This is the real deal.
Its raining.
Learn to swim.

Posted by: LosBanos | Apr 8 2025 19:15 utc | 77

Can someone please answer this question: What is the point of money in the Satanic Death Cult system which has no regard for human life?

Posted by: KOB | Apr 8 2025 19:15 utc | 78

72 Michael

Sure, it’s a gradual process like a large ship or freight train… doesn’t help when satoshis are resisted either tho… it is full stack: reserve, settlement (with even ecash, lightning transactional layers in heavy development) with little counterparty risk (not debt-based)… yet crickets (the silence is deafening at times)

Posted by: E | Apr 8 2025 19:16 utc | 79

I can imagine what Wolff and Hudson would have to say about Miran's verbal diarrhea and his complete detachment from reality.

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 8 2025 18:37 utc | 59
----------------------------------------------------------
Thank you, young man!

Wall Street is busy correcting Trump et. al. with everybody's money. My guess is that things will have turned by September. Six months is a long time for capital to be wasting away. Ackman and Musk are not the only ones already making noises today.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Apr 8 2025 19:17 utc | 80

What is the point of money in the Satanic Death Cult system which has no regard for human life?

Posted by: KOB | Apr 8 2025 19:15 utc | 78

---

Without regard to human life money can be used to buy wage slaves, or chattel slaves. Your mileage may vary depending on the local amount of disregard.

Posted by: too scents | Apr 8 2025 19:18 utc | 81

Pegging a price to USD uses exactly zero USD because it only uses an agreed/decided upon USD exchange rate reference (pure data) and nothing else.

However even with the above there is still no reason to use USD for direct reference in such a way. One might use it indirectly for one's own private reference but not in a deal conducted between the parties which can more easily and efficiently directly use a similarly agreed upon exchange rate reference of their own currencies.

Extremely easy.

Moreover if for whatever reason one of the parties would like any different currency for any reason it is still trivial.

Now I don't know what the current situation is in all the countries in the world but it used to be common to have something called currency baskets...

Money/currencies is/are very flexible.

In comparison the US government point of view is a retarded clown version of a lie where they believe the USD is involved in everything (lol).

It is interesting to see what looks like people trying to defend it here (maybe I misunderstand them?).

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Apr 8 2025 19:19 utc | 82

I read a news blurb earlier attributed to FOX News--"China will pay for new tariff hikes." Now, most of the bar understands that tariffs are a tax on consumption, not on the exporting of goods. So, what we have is Trump's favorite network spreading Fake News, and a Howler at that. I should have clicked the link to provide the evidence, provided FOX hasn't recognized its massive gaff and pulled it.

———————

Meh…not really. Let’s take something like Lululemon leggings which are pretty much a must for any American middle class girl in the US. They cost around $150 a pair and are made in Vietnam mostly. Any American sororista is going have at least a dozen pair. They probably have .50 cents worth of material and a dollar’s worth of labor. Throw in transport, marketing, and labor and there is probably $125 of pure profit per pair.

Now, if the tariffs stick after all the negotiations, do you think the producers of these things raise their prices significantly and risk losing sales, say “fuck it” and sell to the global south you guys keep bragging about, or eat the tariffs and content themselves with $100 pure profit instead of $125? I know which one I would choose.

I

Posted by: CullenBaker | Apr 8 2025 19:19 utc | 83

"As a result of all this, Americans have been paying for peace and prosperity not just for themselves, but for non-Americans too." Steve Miran

Translation: The reparations now owed to the empire for so many decades of peace and benificence are simply incalculable.

Meanwhile, Karma is putting on her full-metal bitch.

Posted by: Doug Terpstra | Apr 8 2025 19:19 utc | 84

Meanwhile,
To confirm that its military is the guarantor of the USD as reserve currency, DJT proposes a defence budget bill of 1 trillion USD.
I suppose DOGE is useful in cutting spendings in all departments except defence to divert the savings to the Pentagone…

Posted by: scc | Apr 8 2025 19:21 utc | 85

@Posted by: CullenBaker | Apr 8 2025 18:34 utc | 57

FFS do some homework. China GDP in 2024 was US$18.8 trillion, the trade surplus with the US was US$295.4 billion - the latter is 1.6% of the former.

- China imports mainly commodities from the US which it can easily replace with other import sources, together with some manufactured goods that it could easily replace with internal production or other sourced imports. i.e. China can do without what it imports from the US.
- The vast majority of Chinese exports to the US are managed by US/foreign companies (e.g. Apple) who take the vast amount of the profits generated by these exports and will be severely hit by a stopping of these exports. At 1.6% of GDP, the net surplus with the US can be easily replaced with internal demand and exports to other nations.

- The vast amount of goods imported from China to the US are manufactured goods which (i) mostly cannot be provided from elsewhere at the same low prices, so replacements will drive up inflation (ii) would require many, many years of expensive investment to create the factories/workforces/supply chains necessary to replace (iii) cannot be replaced for either cost issues or non-availability elsewhere (e..g. critical minerals). For (ii) and (iii) the US population will have to eat the tariffs and take the inflation hit.
- Many of the imports from China are critical to the US MIC, and the lack of them will utterly cripple it for many, many years.

So China can easily do without the US, the US cannot easily do without China. In fact, significant areas of the US MIC and other important industries would be crippled without Chinese goods. Also, the shelves at Walmart, dollar stores etc. would rapidly go majority empty and the poorest in society would be hit with the highest rate of inflation.

Countries like Brazil, Russia etc. will be happy to export food and raw materials to China to fill the gaps left by the US.

Posted by: Roger Boyd | Apr 8 2025 19:21 utc | 86

Posted by: unimperator | Apr 8 2025 18:38 utc | 61

> The European Union has agreed to Trump's demand to purchase $350 billion worth of LNG and oil from USA.

i cannot find this news except in some random X posts.

i only find that she agreed to discuss it further, and that she want to ensure energy diversity, but nothing about EU agreed on it.

Posted by: hans23 | Apr 8 2025 19:22 utc | 87

@Posted by: CullenBaker | Apr 8 2025 19:10 utc | 75

Read my response to your other post, this is not the frictionless trade of some economics text book. The US is fucked for a significant period without Chinese goods imports.

Posted by: Roger Boyd | Apr 8 2025 19:23 utc | 88

And speaking of full stack: satoshis obsolete A LOT of warfare … which is the traditional way of protecting property (or seizing! In this miran case)

Posted by: E | Apr 8 2025 19:23 utc | 89

@Posted by: too scents | Apr 8 2025 19:18 utc | 81

How are you going to establish a hierarchy (slavery) if no one values your life? All relationships become impossible.

Posted by: KOB | Apr 8 2025 19:26 utc | 90

Posted by: hans23 | Apr 8 2025 19:22 utc | 87

Well, her statement strongly implies EU is going to agree to Trump's demand.

As to how that will increase 'supplier diversity' is a major question mark, but it's the usual EU doublespeak, or just general retardedness of the people involved making decisions.

Posted by: unimperator | Apr 8 2025 19:28 utc | 91

Bye bye bounce, US stock markets now red for the day and only a couple percent short of taking out the previous lows. B*t*!n in very much the same situation.

Posted by: Roger Boyd | Apr 8 2025 19:29 utc | 92

Another post that gives voice to all those with terminal TDS.

That's so important because the "everything Trump does is wrong" crowd [in the US, the Hillary/Cheney/Obama/Biden] crowd hasn't had a chance to speak since Obama came to power. I mean, that crowd barely murmured, when Obama/Hillary/Biden "surged" in Iraq, silent when Obama/Hillary/Biden fought the "right-war" in AF-PAK, not a peep when Obama/Hillary/Biden overthrew Qaddafi, or when Obama/Hillary/Biden began the overthrow of Assad [and finished it in Dec 2024], even when Obama/Hillary/Biden began the war in ex-ukrainia [circa 2014].

Yes, it's time that Obama/Hillary/Biden crowd be given a platform, be given their voice, they have held their tongue too long, far too long or...perhaps we haven't heard them these past decades because then, as now, they sing in perfect harmony with the 3LAs media minions?

Posted by: S Brennan | Apr 8 2025 19:31 utc | 93

Read my response to your other post, this is not the frictionless trade of some economics text book. The US is fucked for a significant period without Chinese goods imports.

Posted by: Roger Boyd | Apr 8 2025 19:23 utc | 88

______________________

Let’s hid and watch and see how it all works out. I suspect you will be disappointed.

Posted by: CullenBaker | Apr 8 2025 19:32 utc | 94

Re: Foreign Holding of US Federal Debt stable ?

The interest rate required by buyers of Treasury debt has skyrocketed from 1.5% to 4.2% for the 10 year. That’s a profound change in risk profile

Note : U.S. federal debt has a significantly higher interest rate than Chinese Gov’t debt.

Posted by: Exile | Apr 8 2025 19:33 utc | 95

"Changing the Reserve currency is really hard. If a Business, or a country or a large drug dealer has multi-billion dollar equiv. to place, name a country where you can place it is $1 billion hits, in liquid safe short term assets and get it back just as quick."

Yes. Thats why it took Trump demanding a 35% - 50% haircut on the heels of Biden stealing Russias currency reserves to make it happen quickly. Without that the dollar would have died a very very slow death. That is not desired. The elites do not want to pay the energy consumption overhead of the EU and USA. The energy cost of those societies is not worth the benefits they provide to the elite. They are cost cutting. China and Russia are societies that will provide everything they desire. Franchises that have high overhead are ended their resources are stripped and moved to profitable franchises, the abandoned franchises financial access terminated.

This is systematic and well ordered disassembly. Its reality as a continuous systematic disassembly denotes purpose not random event or "blunders".

Posted by: LosBanos | Apr 8 2025 19:33 utc | 96

@ Roger Boyd | Apr 8 2025 19:29 utc | 92

Its a wilding.

Posted by: too scents | Apr 8 2025 19:36 utc | 97

TDS

---

WTF

The show between Donald Likud Trump and Joe Caligula Biden isn't funny.

It may be entertaining for the American plebs, but the American oligarchic system pretending to be a democracy really isn't funny at all.

In Washington DC, there's only one free man: Thomas Massie, the last American.

Posted by: Simon | Apr 8 2025 19:37 utc | 98

"Note : U.S. federal debt has a significantly higher interest rate than Chinese Gov’t debt."
Significantly higher than Greece also with its 300% plus debt to GDP.

Posted by: LosBanos | Apr 8 2025 19:37 utc | 99

Chinese commentary ...

This is a hard decoupling with the United States.

We have reached a point where the value of US dollar means nothing to us now.

Previously, the US dollar has already been severely devalued for us, we cannot buy things we like such as semiconductors with it.

Now, it's completely useless.

https://x.com/zhao_dashuai/status/1909687955058573581

Posted by: unimperator | Apr 8 2025 19:43 utc | 100

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