News & views related to the war in Ukraine …
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March 28, 2025
Ukraine Open Thread 2025-063
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Is Odessa still on the menu or not? This is still the litmus test for a successful SMO imo.
Posted by: 5jumpchump | Mar 28 2025 14:53 utc | 1
Posted by: 5jumpchump | Mar 28 2025 14:53 utc | 1
#######
There is no rush. Russia has been around for 1,000 years. 5 more years to finish the SMO properly is a blink of the eye.
Whether by capture or referenda, Odessa will be Russian again.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Mar 28 2025 14:59 utc | 2
@5jumpchump
Is Odessa still on the menu or not? This is still the litmus test for a successful SMO imo.
I guess a safe Odessa for Russia speakers is the demand. So serious de-nazification achieves the same end.
My feeling is that really depends on Europe admitting they can no longer influence things and cutting off support for open Nazis.
Posted by: Michael Droy | Mar 28 2025 14:59 utc | 3
The last village in Kursk (Guevo?) was liberated by the RF according to DPA.
Meanwhile, does anyone else find this story about four missing US servicemen swallowed up by a swamp In Lithuania smells like 5-day old fish left in the sun?
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Mar 28 2025 15:00 utc | 4
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Mar 28 2025 15:00 utc | 4
#######
No one is asking why they were in Lithuania training on the Belorussian border.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Mar 28 2025 15:06 utc | 5
Ukraine Weekly Update, 28th March 2025: May be useful to some: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-weekly-update-aa5
Posted by: The Busker | Mar 28 2025 15:07 utc | 6
They have to widen their portfolio to head off a situation of having more crashes than they have helicopters…
Posted by: andy | Mar 28 2025 15:09 utc | 7
@ LoveDonbass | Mar 28 2025 14:59 utc | 2
I have always assumed that Russia really, really doesn’t want to take Odessa by force. That beautiful city, so very Russian, it would be tragic to have to take it the way Mariupol was taken. Much better to conquer everything necessary to receive the city intact from the new regime.
Posted by: Grieved | Mar 28 2025 15:15 utc | 8
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Mar 28 2025 15:06 utc | 5
Correct. What I don’t get is — if they just wanted to cover up four service members who got new orifices in the shape of a .50 caliber round to the head in Kursk, they could make up a skiing accident or helicopter crash (conveniently over the middle of the Barents Sea or somewhere with no witnesses.)
This seems to be a lot of work just to do a cover-up. Something else is going on, IMO.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Mar 28 2025 15:27 utc | 9
Media reports, saying that Britain and France were involved in Kiev’s latest attack on energy infrastructure.
Its a developing story.
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Mar 28 2025 15:27 utc | 10
Much better to conquer everything necessary to receive the city intact from the new regime.
Posted by: Grieved | Mar 28 2025 15:15 utc | 8
Classic Putin.
Win, but without breaking the furniture.
In the end he always loses the furniture.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Mar 28 2025 15:32 utc | 11
Putin has an idea that he floats as a trial balloon in “Putin the Submariner in Murmansk”. He also explains why elections are absolutely essential in Ukraine thus lending his shoulder to the legal arguments I’ve been making. Yes, the two are connected.
No one is asking why they were in Lithuania training on the Belorussian border.
Oh, that’s easy. There is a military training ground near Pabrade (which is ~20 km from the border to Belarus, so there you have the “at the border with Belarus”, it existed already in Soviet times), two US regiments are stationed there “rotating”, last exchange was in January 2025.
The incident is said to have happened within this training ground. It’s mostly sand, but also some lakes and bogs.
It made a lot of noise in Lithuania.
So this part of the story is reasonable. In theory, a tank could be stuck in a bog, being buried completely – but the tiny bog they showed doesn’t seem to be deep enough.
Strange are other things. An Abrams in engineering version just doesn’t disappear that way, it has an order and place where it has to be and ongoing communication. Well, and of course fresh tracks, where it went (no rain since missing). So the need to look more then 12 hours for a missing tank on 40 square kilometers is strange. Digging it out, if one would expect living persons inside, should not last another 2 days …
And you always get contradicting information, Rutte: they are dead, LT: haven’t found them yet, Nato: dead anyway, LT: haven’t opened the box yet
Posted by: BG13 | Mar 28 2025 15:36 utc | 13
Will Putin have push his forces all the way to Kiev? – if its left to Brussels, I’d say yes.
“President Vladimir Putin has declared that Russian forces are gaining momentum across the entire line of contact and could soon “finish off” Ukraine’s military, while commenting on attempts by Kiev’s European backers to derail a diplomatic resolution of the conflict.
The Russian president made the remarks on Thursday during a meeting with the crew of the Arkhangelsk nuclear submarine, which is equipped with Zircon hypersonic missiles. Putin reiterated that Moscow has always sought to resolve the conflict through diplomatic means but was met with deception and obstruction from the West – first with the failed Minsk Agreements and then during the 2022 Istanbul peace talks.
“Their European handlers… convinced the Ukrainian leadership that they had to continue armed resistance, essentially to the last Ukrainian, with the goal of inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia.”
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Mar 28 2025 15:37 utc | 14
Years of Dread: Part 4 – Empire Rising
How Ukraine’s impending defeat will mutate nationalist defiance into Azov’s transnational terror, seeking to destabilize America while simultaneously consolidating Brussels’ imperial grip.
https://www.beyondwasteland.net/p/years-of-dread-part-4-empire-rising
Putin might not have much choice – when it comes to breaking the deal with Trump, if this goes on much longer.
“The Ukrainian military has attacked Russia’s energy infrastructure in three separate regions, again violating a US-mediated moratorium on such strikes, the Defense Ministry in Moscow has claimed.
The incidents, recorded over the past 24 hours, took place in Belgorod, Kursk and Saratov Regions of Russia, the Friday statement said. On Thursday, Ukrainian artillery struck an element of the Russian power grid in Belgorod Region, disrupting the power supply in Shchebekino near the international border, the report said.
A separate incident involved HIMARS artillery strikes on the Sudzha gas metering station in Kursk Region, where “the energy site was de facto destroyed.” The ministry had previously accused Kiev of damaging the facility with planted explosive charges as its forces were retreating from the area.”
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Mar 28 2025 15:40 utc | 16
The US/EU Moldovan puppet leader Sandu guided by her western handlers is clamping down in Moldova – Sandu recently won an election in the country – that saw hundreds of thousands of Moldovans disenfranchised.
Her arrest and trumped up charges have been condemned by Russia.
Currently the west is trying to overthrow the government of Serbia, they attempted to overthrow the governments of Georgia and Slovakia – and they are also trying to imprison or remove popular candidates in Romania via trumped up lies.
“Sandu had – Yevgenia Gutsul, arrested the detained leader of Moldova’s autonomous Gagauzia region. According to Moldovan media, Gutsul was taken into custody as part of an investigation into the 2023 gubernatorial election in Gagauzia, which she won. Her campaign was accused of financial irregularities. The Moldovan government claims that Gutsul is part of a Russian influence operation aimed at disrupting the country’s attempts to become a member of the EU.
The Gagauz are a Turkic-speaking, predominantly Orthodox Christian ethnic group living in southern Moldova. Their region, Gagauzia, has been granted broad rights to self-government. Sandu has questioned Gutsul’s mandate as governor, denouncing her former party ‘Shor’ as a “criminal organization.” A court in Chisinau banned the party in 2023.””
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Mar 28 2025 15:50 utc | 17
I have always assumed that Russia really, really doesn’t want to take Odessa by force. That beautiful city, so very Russian, it would be tragic to have to take it the way Mariupol was taken. Much better to conquer everything necessary to receive the city intact from the new regime.
Posted by: Grieved | Mar 28 2025 15:15 utc | 8
i think it’s a matter of priorities.
What the Russians are looking for first and foremost is security from attack from the west. Back in 2013 they were happy to lease the Sevastopol naval base from Ukraine and the Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts were happy in Ukrainian hands.
In 2016 the 2 Donbas oblasts asked to join Russia and were refused because the Russians didn’t need the headache.
In 2022 the Russians were happy to only come out of the war with Odessa and the 2 Donbas oblasts.
In 2023 Zaparozhia aand kherson were also taken under Russia’s wing.
Logically if the Russians can get away with peace and security without losing a hundred thousand young men fighting for Odessa they’ll take it. It’s consistent with their policy to date.
No one wants to live with a violent failed state as a neighbor. Given the options of taking Odessa by force and leaving a failed rump full of nazis as their neighbor and having a Russia tolerant Ukraine that includes a seaport to export their grain giving Ukrainians an income it would be smart to choose the latter IMO.
Russia doesn’t need to be a big swinging dick in the world … they just need peace and prosperity and finally enjoy the fruits of shaking off the Tsar.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Mar 28 2025 15:51 utc | 18
Zakharova reports that the Brits & French supplied the AFU w/ guidance for a missile attack Friday a.m. on the Sudzha energy station, effectively destroying the station.
“The command came from London,” she said.
Recall that Russia began observing the limited ceasefire on energy infrastructure on 18 March. Kiev game lip-service sort of to the limited ceasefire but has never really abided, even hitting an oil transfer system in the Caspian jointly maintained by the U.S. through Exxon and Mobil Oil.
It is necessary to bring global attention to Ukraine’s opting not to abide by the ceasefire. Russia can additionally withdraw from the limited ceasefire on energy infrastructure as a result of violations from the Kiev side.
But you can’t *run to Daddy*
There is no *Daddy*
Russia must be its own Daddy
Posted by: steel_porcupine | Mar 28 2025 15:52 utc | 19
In response to post 13: The vehicle in question is an M88 Hercules. It is a “VTR”. Vehicle, tank retriever. It’s the vehicle that gets sent to assist armored vehicles that get stuck or are disabled and need a tow. The crew is comprised of mechanics. Usually, the only weapon on the vehicle is a 50cal. machine gun mounted on top.
Posted by: Leroy | Mar 28 2025 15:57 utc | 20
I’m taking it as pure misdirection to fill space, I see no value or importance in it at all.
Arguably I shouldn’t write this comment :/
US soldiers die all the time for all sorts of reasons; bogs moving into their way (and then perhaps away again because “mystery” (spooky noises)) would be no different than mountains speeding into them or islands and coastlines surfacing in front of them. Such cheeky geology, they’re going to need a war on geology soon 😛
Meanwhile: what’s going on with the US possibly attacking Iran? Is that also make-believe and noise?
What (beyond the genocide which receives little coverage anyway) are these covering up? (If indeed they are). I don’t see anything in/about ex-Ukraine (including the US leaving or whatever) needing any cover like this, nor anything else.
They could be setting the stage/”tuning the volume” for some later stuff I suppose but I fail to see what that is supposed to be as well, unless maybe Iran is actually happening —that could be big enough for them to have most people interested elsewhere. Then again they already have their script on “Iran = bad” hammered into everything and it doesn’t look like they would need any misdirection on that no matter what.
Sorry for writing “I don’t know” with so many words 😀 (and it quickly went off topic).
Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Mar 28 2025 15:58 utc | 21
From Reuters
Months after first incursion, Ukrainian troops are fighting inside a second Russian region
Just as Ukrainian forces are losing their grip on the pocket of Russia’s Kursk region they captured last year, they have staged a so-far little-publicised incursion into the adjacent Belgorod region, according to Russian military bloggers.
Posted by: psychohistorian | Mar 28 2025 15:58 utc | 22
Things going as planned…
Ukraine is out of men.
“There are no human resources left in the area.”
A court cleared Zelensky’s commissar, who failed to meet the mobilization quota for kidnapped men. Turns out, there are simply no men left in his district.
https://x.com/Panchenko_X/status/1905645318303056203
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 28 2025 16:02 utc | 23
Putin might not have much choice – when it comes to breaking the deal with Trump, if this goes on much longer.
@Republicofscotland | Mar 28 2025 15:40 utc | 16
He made the decision so it probably won’t be changed, he wants to please Trump at all costs. They were tricked again today. The civilians stolen from Kursk were not all returned in the exchange where they released around 900 Ukros for about 40 ( tass.com/society/1935899 ).
Currently Zakharova blames FR and UK for the attacks. That is very funny because the news said Sudzha was destroyed with Himars. when Biden was president they kept saying Atacms and Himars are controlled by US, now with Trump it’s only the famous Ukros behind everything, including satellites, and only EU is helping them.
“Zakharova also noted that the strike on the “Sudzha” gas distribution station was likely carried out with the assistance of France and the UK”
Posted by: rk | Mar 28 2025 16:12 utc | 24
Posted by: rk | Mar 28 2025 16:12 utc | 24
To be honest, no one ever expected Sudzha pipe and compressor station to survive as long as it did. I think it was fully expected and written off long ago.
Ukraine didn’t even use rocket artillery to hit it, they rigged it with explosives while they still had the chance.
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 28 2025 16:17 utc | 25
Sputnik has a good article dealing with aspects of the trial balloon Putin floated yesterday in Murmansk, “Three Ways How ‘Expired’ Zelensky Can Be Ousted as Chief Obstacle to Peace in Ukraine”. Within this article, I see another legalism needing to be addressed–If elections can’t be held because of Martial Law and with the passage of time the official(s) who issued the Martial Law edict become illegitimate because of no elections, who then is deemed legitimate to end the Martial Law edict? Putin argues in his talk with the submarine crew that the entire Kiev government is illegitimate because of the lack of elections. That’s a position I’ve held–if the president becomes illegitimate because his term expired and no elections were held, then the same applies to the Rada’s elected officials. Complicating the matter are the Nazis waiting in the wings to take over as Putin explained.
So far, I’ve seen no news report provide the entire conversation with all the points Putin made. One must read the conversation’s transcript to learn about all of it, which I linked to @12 above. The issues Putin raises constitute a major set of “nuances” that must be resolved to arrive at a legitimate peaceful resolution to the war waged on Ukraine and Russia by the Outlaw US Empire and NATO. Currently, it’s very clear most European NATO members don’t want a peaceful resolution to the war and are abetting Kiev’s efforts to destroy the energy infrastructure ceasefire.
Meanwhile, the emerging clarity regarding the Ukrainian government’s illegitimacy, particularly Zelensky’s, makes anything signed by him or made into law by the Rada null and void dating back to when elections should have been held.
Per the WaPo, the new draft of the minerals deal, said one senior Ukrainian official, looks like “Ukraine was in the war with U.S., lost, [was] captured and now has to pay lifetime reparations.”
Well, yeah…
Posted by: steel_porcupine | Mar 28 2025 16:22 utc | 27
Just as Ukrainian forces are losing their grip on the pocket of Russia’s Kursk region they captured last year, they have staged a so-far little-publicised incursion into the adjacent Belgorod region, according to Russian military bloggers.
Posted by: psychohistorian | Mar 28 2025 15:58 utc | 22
This is indeed a head scratcher.
I can understand a lightning raid to sieze the Kursk NPP or to destroy the gas pumping station at Sudzha but I don’t understand holding the region at the cost of 60,000 + lives and thousands of vehicles and equipment.
Now they’re trying it again only this time there’s nothing of value where they’re attacking. What’s the point?
Posted by: HB_Norica | Mar 28 2025 16:23 utc | 28
Is Odessa still on the menu or not?
Posted by: 5jumpchump | Mar 28 2025 14:53 utc | 1
—
Odessa is dessert.
Posted by: too scents | Mar 28 2025 16:23 utc | 29
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Mar 28 2025 15:00 utc | 4
Maybe they wanted to reenact the “Panzer of the lake, what is your wisdom” meme once again … remember kids, drivin’on a swamp on a 60 tons vehicle isn’t cool ^^.
Anyway, four deads ; it would have been worse if they weren’t vaccinated :op.
Posted by: Savonarole | Mar 28 2025 16:26 utc | 30
Posted by: HB_Norica | Mar 28 2025 15:51 utc | 18
I maybe wrong but rests of Ukraine without sea access, needing to be rebuild, is useless and will probably be abandoned by the west.
Given that I will put my coin on the Nazis killing each other.
Posted by: Mario | Mar 28 2025 16:31 utc | 31
Russia is harboring Zelenski in Kiev. Their reward? Years of hell and massive losses of life on all sides.
Vietnam? 58,000 dead US soldiers.
Russia?
Ukraine?
Sickening.
Posted by: elmagnostic | Mar 28 2025 16:32 utc | 32
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 28 2025 16:17 utc | 25
Allegedly they used himars in the last attack after having exploded it with mines. Go figure.
Posted by: Mario | Mar 28 2025 16:33 utc | 33
I previously reported this here in MOA but this theme is now getting momentum. It’s highly likely that the American Military will depart from the EU in the next few months. There are 140,000 military personal in the region – ca. 70% fixed vs. ca. 30% rotating forces. The Ukrainian supplemental budget has now expired. This means, 2 Brigades (8,000 manpower) to disappear as a consequence of this cut.
Further, EDI (European Defense Initiative) is also ending. The EDI was paying for the rotational forces. And, the baseline forces were paid by regular budget which may be ending soon. This means all the real armor and combat forces will be gone sometime this year.
All in all, from 140k to 0k. But don’t worry, the British empire and France will move in and lead Ukraine’s NATO with European armed forces mostly from Easter Europe [Poland the largest bulk of the military] and €800 billion from Frau Ursula Gertrud von der Leyen and Germany’s €500 new military package. In her own words ‘Peace through force’.
Posted by: pepe | Mar 28 2025 16:34 utc | 34
Big Serge is back again …. always worth reading
Ukraine: Fighting to the Conclusion
Russo-Ukrainian War, Spring 2025
“I have never made any bones about my belief that the war in Ukraine will be resolved militarily: that is, it will be fought to its conclusion and end in the defeat of Ukraine in the east, Russian control of vast swathes of the country, and the subordination of a rump Ukraine to Russian interests.” Big Serge
https://bigserge.substack.com/p/ukraine-fighting-to-the-conclusion
Posted by: Don Firineach | Mar 28 2025 16:36 utc | 35
My understanding is that the area were the 4 American soldiers were lost also has the pipeline running from Belarus through Lithuania and services Kalingrad.
A lot of heavy equipment for road, canal and drainage engineering is going on were the M88 VRT sank 5 metres.
I read that they also stopped, expunged the pipe for safety reasons.
Will they turn it back on after the bodies are found?
Posted by: Angelo | Mar 28 2025 16:47 utc | 36
Again Putin turned Russian into a complete weakling/joke country, if someone said, such strikes on Russian in 2020 or even 2022, one can clearly say it would be impossible since Russian response of at-least a conventional if not nuclear is guaranteed on the countries involved. It is directly Putin’s policy and decision making fault that no one takes Russian nuclear power status seriously anymore and which turned Russia a country under compromised leadeship
Posted by: dooknakin dooknakin | Mar 28 2025 16:49 utc | 37
Posted by: HB_Norica | Mar 28 2025 16:23 utc | 28
RE: what’s the point of attempting a Kursk Incursion 2 in the Belgorod region-?
<<
*Somehow* these incursions *play well* w/ the non-U.S. members of NATO. They see a feisty peripatetic AFU really *sticking it* to the Russians.
Welp...
Recall, too that the Kursk Incursion was a variant of the hare-brained !-Krynky-! from the autumn of 2023
This Belgorod variant--call it Omicron, if you like--looks like the knee-jerk reflexive move of an animal in its death spasm.
Posted by: steel_porcupine | Mar 28 2025 16:52 utc | 38
France, Britain and Germany never intended to send troops in Ukraine.Troops were to be sent by Poland, Romania, the Baltic States, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, and the former Yugoslavs.There are no volunteers in the east.Under these conditions, the “big guys” calmed down…
France and Britain&Co are militarily negligible without the USA.
NATO has become a burden for the US, it was also observed in Afghanistan
Posted by: surena | Mar 28 2025 17:05 utc | 39
Classic Putin.
Win, but without breaking the furniture.
In the end he always loses the furniture.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Mar 28 2025 15:32 utc | 11
Crimea.
Posted by: UWDude | Mar 28 2025 17:16 utc | 40
Things going as planned…
Ukraine is out of men.
“There are no human resources left in the area.”
A court cleared Zelensky’s commissar, who failed to meet the mobilization quota for kidnapped men. Turns out, there are simply no men left in his district.
https://x.com/Panchenko_X/status/1905645318303056203
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 28 2025 16:02 utc | 23
Said as much in the previous thread…
Posted by: Newbie | Mar 28 2025 17:20 utc | 41
Dmitry Medvedev
The Americans rolled out an excellent draft commodity deal to the Kiev freak. If the Kiev regime approves it, the drug addict and co. will then be hanged on the Maidan, like Mussolini. And if it rejects it, the United states will reset the Bandera regime. Checkmate.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/123086
Posted by: Norwegian | Mar 28 2025 17:25 utc | 42
It is necessary to bring global attention to Ukraine’s opting not to abide by the ceasefire. Russia can additionally withdraw from the limited ceasefire on energy infrastructure as a result of violations from the Kiev side.
I am no good at reading a room, but I suspect a more likely Russian response will be to tally up the violations over the 30 days ceasefire, and the next time something similar is brought up in negotiations, use the fact that “last time they broke the ceasefire 43 times, why should we trust them this time around?” as a bargaining chip. Whether that is good procedure is another debate, but it appears inline with current RUS geostrategy IMO. The perception: Better(?) to take somewhat mild hits in violation, and try to politically leverage down the road…. though a negative is presumably EU ain’t gonna play any ball in any case.
Posted by: Call it what u will | Mar 28 2025 17:27 utc | 43
Big Serge
https://bigserge.substack.com/p/ukraine-fighting-to-the-conclusion
Posted by: Don Firineach | Mar 28 2025 16:36 utc | 35
yay!
Posted by: UWDude | Mar 28 2025 17:29 utc | 44
Posted by: Don Firineach | Mar 28 2025 16:36 utc | 35
Big Serge is back again …. always worth reading
That has been my view as well from the start: “the war in Ukraine will be resolved militarily: that is, it will be fought to its conclusion and end in the defeat of Ukraine in the east, Russian control of vast swathes of the country, and the subordination of a rump Ukraine to Russian interests”.
It’s not an ideological or political opinion, it is grounded on history and the realities of power. Just like Mexico could never win a war with the USA to recover California, etc, no matter how much help it received, the Ukraines will certainly be defeated and given other facts of this war, it will disappear as a sovereign nation.
Ukrops failed at the Great Ol’ Summer Counter-Offensive (GOUSCO) and failed at their mini-invasion of Russia in Kursk, what else can these losers try now to stay in the game?
Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Mar 28 2025 17:51 utc | 45
I think we are finally about to see the real US-Ukraine split.
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 28 2025 17:52 utc | 46
Ich bin immer davon ausgegangen, dass Russland Odessa wirklich nicht mit Gewalt einnehmen will. Diese wunderschöne, so typisch russische Stadt wäre tragisch, wenn man sie so einnehmen müsste wie Mariupol. Viel besser wäre es, alles Notwendige zu erobern, um die Stadt unversehrt vom neuen Regime zurückzuerhalten.
Geschrieben von: Grieved | 28. März 2025 15:15 UTC | 8
Well, many factors come into play with Odessa.
One is that capturing Odessa would act as an initial spark for some in NATO, especially the English and French. Perhaps this is one reason why Putin never brings up Odessa on his own, apparently not even to Trump. At least, it was never revealed that Odessa was even mentioned.
Odessa is much, much more important to the West than Kyiv.
But don’t forget one thing, and anyone who has ever been there knows that they experienced it 75% of the time, or if they understand Russian, even 97% of the time… BECAUSE THE RUSSIANS THERE ARE PRIDE IN THIS CITY….
I’ve been there about 12 times (for work). What I’m saying is that the Russian underground in this city is probably quite strong and could represent a strong opponent for the Ukrainian Nazis, even stronger if it comes to Russian attacks from outside, as the “defenders” would have the enemy at their backs.
Maybe Odessa is on Putin’s list of targets…
And he’s just waiting for Sylenski to call off all reserves, including those stationed there who are blocked…to hold the rest of the front??
If the Deniber falls, the “defenders” of Odessa will also fall victim to the meat grinder on the front.
But as I said…if Odessa does NOT become Russian…the entire SMO will have been pointless, and the Russians in Russia would resent Putin for it!
Posted by: Mit Leser Sascha | Mar 28 2025 18:00 utc | 47
Meanwhile, the emerging clarity regarding the Ukrainian government’s illegitimacy, particularly Zelensky’s, makes anything signed by him or made into law by the Rada null and void dating back to when elections should have been held.
Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 28 2025 16:20 utc | 26
UN announced today that they consider everything in Ukr as legitimate, Guterres was very upset such crazy ideas appeared. EU said the same thing, and that no Ukrainian wants elections so no one can force them to have any.
Also Peskov pi…d on Putin’s speech ( tass.com/politics/1935787 ) turned all ideas in “hypothetical”. Putin can say anything he wants, he has zero support internally and zero support externally up to UN. Except for NK, no country, no UN recognizes even Crimea as Russia
Posted by: rk | Mar 28 2025 18:05 utc | 48
Posted by: pepe | Mar 28 2025 16:34 utc | 34
################
140,000 personnel might be 100,000 fighters. That 140,000 includes a lot of secretaries, drivers, and massage therapists.
Almost none of those fighters the US has over there will have seen real combat, let alone peer combat. “Policing Iraq and Afghanistan” is a walk in the park compared to facing the Russian God of War (artillery).
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Mar 28 2025 18:05 utc | 49
Colonel Larry Wilkerson made a great point with Nima recently, as soon as the US is losing a conventional war, they will introduce nukes.
Zionism is a death cult. Zionism is Americanism.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Mar 28 2025 18:09 utc | 50
History. USuk began to ‘weaponize’ UKR rapidly after the Fall of the Wall, Berlin, 1989.
US Foreign Policy is a constant that does not change with Presidents, the switcheroos are just a convenient way of blaming others. Trump blames Biden for the URK mess (failure, loss), it started well before, plus he supported UKR in his first term.
Trump actually boasted about that recently “I gave them Javelins! ”
UKR became officially ‘independent’ in 1991.
In 2004 there was a Color Rev., one of the most typical, imho. It was partly succesful, but didn’t stick. Two contenders for the Pres., Yushenko (an ex-bankster who ditched his local wife and kids to marry a US lady) and Yanukovitch, branded as pro-Russian, head of Party of the Regions, for military non-alignment, faced off.
The horror! Yanukovitch win ! Fraudulent !
Demos followed, etc. etc. A second run-off installed Yushenko with a tally of 52%. (He was the guy poisoned by Dioxin.)
Next election, 2010, Yanukovitch won, against the Lady of the Braids, Tymoshenko.
So, in 2014, the ante was upped and the Maidan ‘coup’ was orchestrated (Obama admin) and a pro-W (say) Poroshenko was installed. Yanukovitch fled to Russia.
(Zel was next.)
So here we are, with UKR to be partioned, taken over, in some way(s) > Russia-West, like Syria, to be split between the US, Isr. and Turkey.
Posted by: Noirette | Mar 28 2025 18:11 utc | 51
I don’t think rk is even lying anymore. It is as if they peer into a completely different universe. Like bored. They must have started sharing desks after the budget cuts.
Posted by: boneless | Mar 28 2025 18:13 utc | 52
In the attack on the Sudzha gas metering station, we’re talking about US missiles, French satellites and British boots on the ground.
Posted by: Passerby | Mar 28 2025 18:14 utc | 53
Posted by: boneless | Mar 28 2025 18:13 utc | 52
############
I think you’re onto something, they are watching different movies, maybe even in different cities.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Mar 28 2025 18:17 utc | 54
Big Serge is back again …. always worth reading
Ukraine: Fighting to the Conclusion
Russo-Ukrainian War, Spring 2025
“I have never made any bones about my belief that the war in Ukraine will be resolved militarily: that is, it will be fought to its conclusion and end in the defeat of Ukraine in the east, Russian control of vast swathes of the country, and the subordination of a rump Ukraine to Russian interests.” Big Serge
https://bigserge.substack.com/p/ukraine-fighting-to-the-conclusion
Posted by: Don Firineach | Mar 28 2025 16:36 utc | 35
Every day I go there to see if he posted something new, you beat me to it.
Not the best big serge I’ve seen but worthwhile.
The post mortem of kursk is accurate, though it doesn’t go into the option of making a cauldron from gordeevka when the AFU left shoulder failed.
The advance options, all good as I often mentioned, are mentioned but just create a bigger doubt about the limited commitment so far (worth a read for those less map invested).
No mention whatsoever about this ending not with terrain conquest but demographic exhaustion.
Some good reflextions on the trump angle as well.
Overall a nice post for those that only wish to take a look every 3 months.
Still cannot helping thinking that big serge is being very prudent on what he chooses to say.
Posted by: Newbie | Mar 28 2025 18:29 utc | 55
I maybe wrong but rests of Ukraine without sea access, needing to be rebuild, is useless and will probably be abandoned by the west.
Given that I will put my coin on the Nazis killing each other.
Posted by: Mario | Mar 28 2025 16:31 utc | 31
Ukraine is ideally placed on the European terminus of the Belt and Road.
China is making more money than they can spend due to a massive trade surplus. The EU is re-thinking their China policy after Trump tariffs … they’ve even green lit a BYD motors factory in Hungary and China has vast experience developing resource extraction in trade infrastructure development. War torn Ukraine is a blank canvas to them. Even without the war they haven’t seen much investment since the fall of the Soviet Union. A lot of the bomb damage is just a cost saving on demolition.
The main issue is whether Russians and Ukrainians living in Ukraine can live peacefully … at least for long enough for investments to pay off. Other countries have managed after a civil war. I’m sure that most Ukrainians are tired of war, Ukrainian oligarchs will make money off this and the hard core nazis can go back to football hooliganism.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Mar 28 2025 18:41 utc | 56
That was supposed to read “resource extraction AND trade infrastructure development”. as in ports, railroads etc.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Mar 28 2025 18:43 utc | 57
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Mar 28 2025 14:59 utc | 2
“Odessa will be Russian again.” I hope so. But what will be the economic effect on Ukraine if is pricipal port goes?
Posted by: horseguards | Mar 28 2025 19:21 utc | 58
Note that Russia’s age and gender graph already sucks in for both men and women at around 20-30 years of age, meaning that cohort of Russian society was already smaller, due to the very hard time Russia went through in the 1990s and the massive decline in birth rates immediately following the collapse of the Soviet Union. Ukraine has a similar demographic “sucking in” in the same period.
The current cohort of Russian men of “prime” military age is smaller than the cohort in their upper 30s or the teenage cohort. Putin’s war is killing off- and driving into exile- Russian men at a time when the cohort of “military aged men” is already small due to historic factors. He is hitting an already hard-hit generation, on both sides of the trench line- not to diminish the many older men fighting and the terrible civilian casualties faced by the Ukrainians.
Posted by: ED Roots Music | Mar 28 2025 19:24 utc | 59
#56 “Ukraine is ideally placed on the European terminus of the Belt and Road.”
I don’t think it’s an accident that more and more of the countries separating Asia from Europe are falling under U.S. sanctions or seeing color revolutions spawned. It’s literally an attempt to install roadblocks, inspection stations and toll booths on the Eurasian BRI. Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, Afghanistan, Iran etc.
I suspect that initiative won’t be abandoned easily or bloodlessly.
Posted by: Billb | Mar 28 2025 19:24 utc | 60
Posted by: Michael Droy | Mar 28 2025 14:59 utc | 3
“depends on Europe admitting they can no longer influence things and cutting off support for open Nazis.” Macron’s just-promised two-billion Euro says otherwise. Inexplicably, he is just being obstinate and deluded; and increasingly isolated.
Posted by: horseguards | Mar 28 2025 19:26 utc | 61
Even without the war they haven’t seen much investment since the fall of the Soviet Union.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Mar 28 2025 18:41 utc | 56
I wonder why…
Look up the Motor Sich story where Chinese investors were robbed. Would they want to try again and invest some more?
Posted by: Rutte | Mar 28 2025 19:26 utc | 62
Posted by: Grieved | Mar 28 2025 15:15 utc | 8
The same excuse was used by the allies in WWII to spare a ceratin German city. So Dresden was bombed. Fuck off with your faux, superfical sensitivity.
Posted by: horseguards | Mar 28 2025 19:30 utc | 63
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Mar 28 2025 15:27 utc | 9
Maybe Special Forces. Why were they there?
Posted by: horseguards | Mar 28 2025 19:36 utc | 64
@ 63 horseblinder
Not that Grieved needs my help, but bad form.
Sober up.
Posted by: NemesisCalling | Mar 28 2025 19:44 utc | 65
Posted by: steel_porcupine | Mar 28 2025 15:52 utc | 19
“bring global attention to Ukraine’s opting not to abide by the ceasefire.” Global attention is incidental: it is European (and US) attention which matters, certainly to Zelensky. And the Europeans are dragging their feet.
Posted by: horseguards | Mar 28 2025 19:45 utc | 66
Posted by: steel_porcupine | Mar 28 2025 16:22 utc | 27
That’s funny.
Posted by: horseguards | Mar 28 2025 19:51 utc | 67
Posted by: horseguards | Mar 28 2025 19:30 utc | 63
Nope it’s you who should f/o w your little man over the top sensitivity and aggression. For nothing except a poster who posts a thought ? Get outa here. But first. A round on horseguards for being triggered by thoughts.
Posted by: Tannenhouser | Mar 28 2025 19:52 utc | 68
Posted by: too scents | Mar 28 2025 16:23 utc | 29
Touche.
Posted by: horseguards | Mar 28 2025 19:53 utc | 69
Posted by: Savonarole | Mar 28 2025 16:26 utc | 30
Excellent.
Posted by: horseguards | Mar 28 2025 20:00 utc | 70
WASHINGTON (Sputnik) – European sanctions against Russia will likely have to be taken into account as part of any final peace deal on Ukraine, US State Secretary Marco Rubio said in a readout of press remarks published by the Department of State on Friday.
no explanaition of how when exactly by which represenatives(individual countries or tha Parliamentary Council of Europe as it is this place especially most fervently by outraged Merkel that authorised initial sanctions be ause of Crimea that would never be recognised as Rusdian)with this dubious “why” considering they are belligerents.But today Z says Europe will be negotiating”at the table of victory”….. as he called it. Delusional.Some motivational speaker..
Posted by: Jo | Mar 28 2025 20:07 utc | 71
Posted by: NemesisCalling | Mar 28 2025 19:44 utc | 65
Fuck off.
Posted by: horseguards | Mar 28 2025 20:16 utc | 72
Posted by: Jo | Mar 28 2025 20:07 utc | 71
Where the US leads, Europe follows. We are all aware of the suicidal effects of sanctions on Europe. Wouldn’t Germany like to save its auto industry?
I’m guessing lifting of US sanctions would be the greater benefit to Russia compared to European sanctions. Re-establishment of mutual business arangements may see a more concentrated, streamlined arrangement. In other words, fewer opportunitites. If the Europeans refuse to play, they’ll lose out, and how long before they recover, if at all?
Posted by: horseguards | Mar 28 2025 20:26 utc | 73
“Odessa will be Russian again.” I hope so. But what will be the economic effect on Ukraine if is pricipal port goes?
Posted by: horseguards | Mar 28 2025 19:21 utc | 58
If the war ended with Russia just getting the 4 oblasts, Ukraine will still be a train wreck. Demographically hollowed out of people in their prime productivity, hundreds of thousands of war casualties that will require medical care the rest of their lives, electrical infrastructure wrecked, and the EU does not have the resources to rebuild 404. The loss of Odessa to Russia won’t make that much difference to a country that is already a dead man walking. OTH, Russia will likely allow a rump Ukraine access to the port, provided it behaves like an adult. The best outcome for the people of Ukraine is the destruction of their illegal government and control by Russia. Those regions that choose to join Russia in a referendum can do so.
Posted by: Mike R | Mar 28 2025 20:28 utc | 74
Posted by: boneless | Mar 28 2025 18:13 utc | 52
—————————
rk wholeheartedly wants Russia to loose, be dismantled and to disappear.
But it doesn’t happen so he rants in desperation.
Posted by: scc | Mar 28 2025 20:28 utc | 75
Putin’s war is killing off- and driving into exile- Russian men
Posted by: ED Roots Music | Mar 28 2025 19:24 utc | 59
Stop the BS scumbag, it is the US’s war that it started in 1945. Russia had no option but to try to defend itself.
Posted by: acementhead | Mar 28 2025 20:30 utc | 76
@Mit Leser Sascha
Bringing up “Deniber” wins you a virtual birthday cake from me! Where did you get that from? A quick google search brings up no other place but your very comment in all of the internet. I have never heard it before. And yet, I immediately recognize it … it is the German tongue compatible name for the Dniepr! I had been looking for this, like, thirty years or so. What the heck.
Posted by: persiflo | Mar 28 2025 20:41 utc | 77
rk | Mar 28 2025 18:05 utc | 48–
Guterres has zero legal standing to make any such judgment. What Putin and many now see most high school students can see and understand. By opening his mouth, Guterres again violates article 100 of the UN Charter by being partisan when he’s supposed to be neutral. From all the evidence Lavrov has compiled and stated publicly, Guterres ought to be shown the door along with his staff.
Looks like another Nato hotel/theme park/holiday destination was hit in Dnipro.
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 28 2025 21:03 utc | 79
UK and France want to send troops to Ukraine. The US wants Ukraine to pay back the cost of the war.
All this feels as if they made a game plan
for winnjng. They lost, but keep following the game plan as if they were victorious.
Posted by: Passerby | Mar 28 2025 21:08 utc | 80
So serious de-nazification achieves the same end.
Posted by: Michael Droy | Mar 28 2025 14:59 utc | 3
Denazification is not possible without Russia having control there. Otherwise there will only be a change of flags, covering of tattoos, but underground terror as before
Posted by: smartfox | Mar 28 2025 21:25 utc | 81
No one is asking why they were in Lithuania training on the Belorussian border.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Mar 28 2025 15:06 utc | 5
Much more interesting is the question of why only 4? Were they there alone? If not, did no one notice that they were “missing”?
Posted by: smartfox | Mar 28 2025 21:28 utc | 82
I have always assumed that Russia really, really doesn’t want to take Odessa by force. That beautiful city, so very Russian, it would be tragic to have to take it the way Mariupol was taken. Much better to conquer everything necessary to receive the city intact from the new regime.
Posted by: Grieved | Mar 28 2025 15:15 utc | 8
Yes, it would be a shame. But Odessa is a special case in military terms because of the catacombs. 2500 kilometer long tunnel system
Posted by: smartfox | Mar 28 2025 21:32 utc | 83
All this feels as if they made a game plan
for winnjng. They lost, but keep following the game plan as if they were victorious.
Posted by: Passerby | Mar 28 2025 21:08 utc | 80
What else can they do? They’ve invested heavily and lost. Russia was stronger than they expected, and Russia’s ally China didn’t even have to intervene decisively. This is what losers look like: Obama, Biden, Blinken, Macron, Starmer, von der Leyen, Scholz, Tusk, etc. etc.
Posted by: Oliver Krug | Mar 28 2025 21:39 utc | 84
Meanwhile: what’s going on with the US possibly attacking Iran? Is that also make-believe and noise?
Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Mar 28 2025 15:58 utc | 21
There will be no war. Putin has made it clear to Trump that there is no threat from Iran as long as it is not attacked (not even by Israel). China and Russia are both firmly committed to Iran, and Trump has realized that in the meantime. No one wants an attack on Iran to endanger Jerusalem, no matter what is being propagated. (you could read this last week, I no longer have the link)
Posted by: smartfox | Mar 28 2025 21:45 utc | 85
Arch Bungle // 11
Putin loses furniture. OMG! Is it like his own personal furniture, or is it Kremlin furniture, or does he lose furniture when he’s over at a friend’s house. Is it like, “Hey, where did my settee go?” Then everyone starts looking and they find it hanging up in the hall closet, and everyone goes, “Putin!” Then he shrugs his shoulders, but nobody gets upset because he’s always losing furniture dinette sets, wardrobes, and once he lost Sally’s entire guest bedroom furniture. That Putin, what can you do?
Posted by: Nobody Special | Mar 28 2025 21:58 utc | 86
I think we are finally about to see the real US-Ukraine split.
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 28 2025 17:52 utc | 46
Wishful thinking. You are projecting all your wishes onto the statements in the media instead of soberly analyzing what has really changed since Munich. Just media spin. But has Trump stopped intelligence, satellite data, arms deliveries, money for Ukraine? No. Only with words, but in fact everything went on, just via Paris or London, both of which also have access. Trump never banned the transfer.
So it was all just blah-blah, sand for Russian eyes, which didn’t work, only in the media.
So far, absolutely nothing has really happened, which for Putin means: carry on as before, just leave one door open so that Trump (he is a choleric man, after all) doesn’t lose face and the line of communication remains open. The same goes for the gas control station: it was shut down long ago, so no real damage for Russia, but propaganda against Ukraine.
Posted by: smartfox | Mar 28 2025 22:07 utc | 87
Colonel Larry Wilkerson made a great point with Nima recently, as soon as the US is losing a conventional war, they will introduce nukes.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Mar 28 2025 18:09 utc | 50
Nonsense. Nobody wants Nukes to explode on their own territory. That’s muscle flexing and for the war-hungry.
Nukes: USA – 5,244 – Russia – 5,889 – China 410 – France 290 – UK 225
The lunatics who think they can win a nuclear war ignore the damage they would have even if they “win”
Posted by: smartfox | Mar 28 2025 22:17 utc | 88
Smartfox @ 87
I think your spot on.
i add…
Its about deception missinfomation, for the western public via their media.
The public thinks ceacefire talks are taking place.
The west then bombs the gas transfir station, but dosnt report it.
If and when Russia retaleates, they are then prceived as the agressor again.
And so its been since day one or earlyer.
Media optics is all.
Posted by: Mark2 | Mar 28 2025 22:21 utc | 89
I maybe wrong but rests of Ukraine without sea access, needing to be rebuild, is useless and will probably be abandoned by the west.
Posted by: Mario | Mar 28 2025 16:31 utc | 31
Wrong. Ukraine will then be an agrarian state with some natural resources. Nothing that you give up. The black soil alone (which the Chinese tried to siphon off at the time) makes Ukraine one of the main producers of wheat. Ukraine will then be similar to Poland.
Posted by: smartfox | Mar 28 2025 22:26 utc | 90
Is Odessa still on the menu or not? This is still the litmus test for a successful SMO imo.
Posted by: 5jumpchump | Mar 28 2025 14:53 utc | 1
I imagine a complete integration of Odessa into the Russian Federation happening any time soon as an iffy proposition, albeit possible by way of a collapse of the AFU, and the government in Kiev. That being said, I think it would be a success if at the end of the day the RF has guarantees regarding the city region, and to give those guarantees teeth has as part of any deal the right to be the sole power to garrison the port. No troops from Kiev, NATO/the USA, just the Russian Federation along with police/militia who actually are long time residents of Odessa. It would be the Russian Federation ensuring the rest of the world got access to the port.
Imo that would be an arrangement the RF government could easily live with, defacto control and semi-de jure control of Odessa while allowing those who needed the fig-leaf of asserting Odessa wasn’t “lost to Russia” to have it. Limited self governance under the watchful eye of Moscow could work out, assuming foreign agents were shown the door and perpetually watched for. But should Great Britain and others show they wouldn’t abide by any such arrangement then going for a true annexation might be deemed the only way forward.
Posted by: Babel-17 | Mar 28 2025 22:29 utc | 91
Posted by: Mark2 | Mar 28 2025 22:21 utc | 89
RE: media optics biased toward the West
<<
"Hey, listen--no one in the world that matters, which is to say the Western world, will *believe* that Ukraine has violated any ceasefire agreement at all, as lily white as the Ukrainains are, pure as the driven snow. As long as *we* don't report Ukraine's violations, the violations don't exist. Get on board, Russia. This is the way your 3-D chess board is slanted."
(end /sarc voiceover)
While prosecuting its SMO against the U.S., via the U.S.'s proxy Ukraine, it is critical for Russia to chive-on right now.
Which means Russia should indeed abide by the limited ceasefire on energy infrastructure until 18 April, which marks the 30-day period.
But they should not go beyond that.
Posted by: steel_porcupine | Mar 28 2025 22:31 utc | 92
Russia’s position has improved dramatically since Trump’s inauguration. Not because Trump is a Russian asset or even actually Russia friendly, but because he painted himself into a corner as a “peacemaker” for the sake of winning an election. And he’s actual a bad negotiator, surrounded by sycophants who have an internet comment thread understanding of the world.
Moscow doesn’t think Trump or Zelensky will be true to their word, hence the Black Sea ceasefire being contingent on ending specific sanctions. Kiev wouldn’t have stopped attacking energy infrastructure or civilians in any case, while Russia can afford a break in attacking Ukrainian energy infrastructure. What’s important is the rift growing between the U.S. and Kiev, and just as important the right growing between the U.S. and EU. Moscow will drive both wedges as much as possible.
As for Odessa, when the fighting ends Ukraine will change a lot. The only thing holding the Ukrainian state together right now is war and martial law. Russia likely gains additional territory after the fighting by virtue of residents deciding to leave a failed state and there not being a strong central government to stop them.
Posted by: Lex | Mar 28 2025 22:36 utc | 93
The U.S. team has remained silent on whether Ukraine *has* or *has not* violated the 30-day limited ceasefire.
Which results in skeevy messaging but maybe is appropriate overall.
Russia, in the driver’s seat, needs to see to its own concerns regarding the violations coming from the Ukrainian side.
Russia cannot look to the U.S. as some kind of *Daddy* in this instance.
Remember: the U.S. still functions as a belligerent, supplying Ukraine w/ weaponry and succor.
So Russia has to see to its own interests, with a free hand, a liberated hand, and simply pursue its military aims.
It is noteworthy that the U.S. and Russia have re-established diplomatic engagement.
But it is obvious that the U.S. is unable fully to live up to those diplomatic aims as long as it remains an active belligerent on the battlefield.
That is an *extreme* limitation on the part of the U.S.
But more to the point: this is a conflict on Russia’s doorstep, taking place in Russia’s neighborhood.
A Great Power like Russia needs to Take Care of Business on its *own* behalf and not wait for the U.S. to step forward w/ an assist.
Posted by: steel_porcupine | Mar 28 2025 22:44 utc | 94
… but because he painted himself into a corner as a “peacemaker” for the sake of winning an election.
Posted by: Lex | Mar 28 2025 22:36 utc | 93
even more. Trump has set a deadline with his usual boldness: Easter, with which he has tied himself down and threatens to lose face if he does not deliver something presentable.
So something has to happen by then that will help him in the US elections. If he fails to do so, he could step up the attacks on Russia in his usual defiant reaction. I don’t think so, but anything is conceivable with Trump.
Posted by: smartfox | Mar 28 2025 22:49 utc | 95
Posted by: smartfox | Mar 28 2025 21:28 utc | 82
I think those who report that the gas pipeline to Kaliningrad may have been the target. Now that is in fact serious for Russia. I assume they have large reserves but it is still an issue.
The west is still trying to provoke russia to outright aggression on NATO and Russia is tryimng very, very hard NOT to be provoked.
This is the latest threat. Will it be enough to force Russia to attack Lithuania.
Now personally I think that Russia needs Odessa and it also needs the a secure Baltic coast. Either there is a deal with Poland/Lithuania or this might be the trigger that works to force Russia to attack.
Posted by: watcher | Mar 28 2025 22:50 utc | 96
Both america and europe including england are much much weaker becouse of their war with Russia, whilst the Jews in both domains are much much stonger. They rule both.
Thats is the only logical motive for this whole conflict.
Motive and opotunity.
Posted by: Mark2 | Mar 28 2025 22:53 utc | 97
Posted by: smartfox | Mar 28 2025 22:49 utc | 95
RE: has DJT painted himself in a corner-?
<<
Here on MoA we hover over every metric of the war in Ukraine, but most MAGA normies care more about domestic inflation, the burden on the wallet at the cash register, the ability to pocket a little more money each month from the paycheck and matters attendant to domestic crime rates and immigration in general.
Whether DJT ends the war in Ukraine is *not* a high priority for most MAGA normies, though I recognize that those of us who post here are understandably invested in that topic.
The midterm elections in the U.S. are still 18 months away. A lot of issues may influence how that election goes, but the war in Ukraine--whether it ends through DJT's efforts or ends through Russia's victory on the battlefield--will *not* govern the outcome, much as *we* care about the outcome.
Posted by: steel_porcupine | Mar 28 2025 23:08 utc | 98
France and the UK are encouraging Ukraine to keep up the penny-packet border invasions into Russia, whether in Belgorod or in Bryansk or along any contiguous area—in order to tie up *spare* Russian forces in those areas and divert men & materiel from Petrovsk, for instance.
What they’re misunderstanding, though, is that Russian conscripts are disallowed by regulations from engaging in battle in Ukraine-held territories–like the Petrovsk region–though they are able to fight within pre-2014 Russia against the AFU or fig-leaf NATO mercs in ‘old’ Russia.
So it is not the case that border incursions will necessitate the movement of battalions from the original LOC in Donbass or the diversion of materiel from there either, like we mainly saw in Kursk.
The French and the British want Ukraine to throw everything they can muster against the borders w/ Russia, and this sounds like an epic flail.
Posted by: steel_porcupine | Mar 28 2025 23:17 utc | 99
Slowly, slowly members of the EU, like Italy, and non-U.S. members of NATO, like Hungary and Slovakia, are starting to throw in the towel on Project Ukraine.
It’s just a matter of time now, and of course attrition, which Russia is handling impressively.
Think of your neighbors who nailed the flag of blue & yellow propaganda to the sides of their houses. How long will it take for them to climb up on the ladder and remove the sun-worn flag-?
These are not neighbors who would ever hoist the Star-Spangled Banner on a flag pole on their front porches…
Perhaps they will never pry the nails from the flag of blue & yellow propaganda from their houses because they.just.can’t
Posted by: steel_porcupine | Mar 28 2025 23:23 utc | 100