Just to reiterate, here are Russia’s goals in the SMO, since some posters here seem confused.
1. Ukraine must become a neutral country. No joining NATO, or even the EU. It should have a stated policy of permanent neutrality, something similar to what Turkmenistan has. The Turkmenistan model is acceptable to Russia.
2. Ukraine must be de-militarized. This means no long-range or offensive weapons, at a minimum. And a cap on the size of Ukraine’s military, subject to monitoring.
3. Recognition of Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia as annexed Russian territory. Ukraine relinquishes all claims to these former oblasts, and removes its troops from them. Codified by treaty.

N.B. It is not necessary for Russia to completely occupy all of these territories to ensure annexation. They became Russian territory once they voted to join in the 2022 referendums.

That’s it, the war will end with those conditions, as of now. De-nazification follows from demilitarization. There’s been no formal stated policy on Odessa, or other parts of Ukraine becoming part of Russia. This is why territorial gains are not a necessary condition for Russian victory. They could be sufficient conditions, but not necessary ones.
Other things like the lifting of sanctions, war crimes tribunals, reparations, can be hashed out after the cessation of hostilities. But in order for Russia to accept any peace deal, those three criteria, at the very least, must be met.

Posted by: James M. | Mar 20 2025 0:05 utc | 401