Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
March 13, 2025
Ukraine Open Thread 2025-051

News & views related to the war in Ukraine …

Comments

Seems like the pro-UFA space is a little slow to acknowledge the effect of the pipeline gambit. I’m a fan of being willing to adjust Bayesian priors, so it bugs me a little to see someone like SkruffyTalez (usually quite good) so adamant in saying the pipe gambit was a failure. I mean at least, he ought to retain uncertainty. Does he have absolute proof of “failure” and how to even define “failure”.
To me, there’s a couple key things arguing for success of the pipe gambit (in addition to the videos, assertions, seemingly surviving participants, etc.):
1. The Ukrops never seem to have retaken the ground where the opening was. Sure…they shelled it. But it was in the middle of their perimeter and they never retook the ground. It’s like in A Bridge too Far (really very much like an airborne operation)–if the Brits had held that last bridge indefinitely (i.e, until the relief, mechanized, column rolled up), then Sean Connery and Anthony Hopkins work would have been strategically a success…even AT huge losses. I mean…it would be easy for the UFA to “prove” the failure of the pipe gambit, by just showing the ground and all the losses the RFA took. But they don’t hold that ground now…and seemingly never retook it after the pipe boys popped out. (DS showed it going gray very quickly and then the next day ceded it as red…and we have zero UFA videos showing them controlling the pipe opening.)
2. The collapse of the UFA lines to the north of Sudzha was very precipitant. Not what you’d expect from just squeezing the supply lines. Really quite different from what we’ve seen in the rest of the war. Even in Kursk (which is more open), it’s not like the RFA had a record of just rolling over UFA defenders. Really, more, sort of what you might expect, with UFA troops/commanders learning that Sudzha had RFA troops in it. Heck, Skruffy had a video saying “they can save it” (by cutting the southern salient towards the supply line). Yet, less than 24 hours after he posted that video, Sudzha had orcs inside the castle walls!

Posted by: Anonymous | Mar 14 2025 11:20 utc | 301

Ukrainian drones just smashed Tuapse oil refinery. Massive fire that’s spreading. They are wrecking one of the main sources of Russian income. Why Lvov isn’t a smoldering ruin is a mystery (I can understand sparing Kiev and Odessa but come on…).

Posted by: bored | Mar 14 2025 11:23 utc | 302

The Great Knight Dope Yankee Poodle BraveSyrKyir delivering on both the main reasons he was put into Downing Street for.
The final dismantling of the NHS and full on sale off to US Medical Industrial Complex.
And declaration of war against Russia for the ziofascist overlords.
‘ — GEROMAN — time will tell – 👀 — retweeted
Maimunka News
@MaimunkaNews
2h
‼️🇺🇦🇬🇧 #Zelensky has quietly promised the British control over Odessa’s eight ports, where British special services have arrived, planning to establish a naval base there, another provocative action signaling that #NATO has nointerest in a peaceful resolution to the war in #Ukraine.
https://nitter.poast.org/MaimunkaNews/status/1900168457288573427 ‘
I bet most of these ‘special forces’ are already urm … let’s say, MIA … this will only allow them to be officially recognised as having been officially there.

Posted by: DunGroanin | Mar 14 2025 11:26 utc | 303

It turns out “There is a nuance” (“Есть нюанс”) is a stock phrase in the vocabulary of obscene Russian humor. Andrei explained to Larry that (for Russians only) a sly slap-down is immediately implied by Putin’s “there are nuances” response to ceasefire proposals: “Putin was politely telling Trump’s team of negotiators that they could shove the proposed ceasefire deal in Riyadh up their ass.”
And that’s putting it politely indeed, once you’ve heard the traditional anecdote starting with “Garry asks the general for the definition of ‘nuance’.” I’ll not repeat it further, but no doubt someone around here will. This being a somewhat seedy geopolitical bar, at times.

Posted by: Aleph_Null | Mar 14 2025 11:27 utc | 304

…but no doubt someone around here will. This being a somewhat seedy geopolitical bar, at times.
Posted by: Aleph_Null | Mar 14 2025 11:27 utc | 306

The most polite version goes someting like this;
When my penis is on your mouth we are both having oral sex.
But there is a nuance.

Posted by: Rutte | Mar 14 2025 11:52 utc | 305

Upon relating Larry and Andrei’s frankly funny interpretation of Putin’s “there are nuances” (above), it occurs to me we’re seeing another instance of that special Russian stylistic flair, in this. Humor constantly plays a vital role in human interactions, sometimes in international diplomacy.
Putin’s “nuances” joke illustrates an aspect of Russian humor which can fly right over your head: The inner joke Putin relates is best told scrupulously deadpan. The smirk is to be strenuously repressed, as it would stifle the funny.
The following (from my “phenomenology of humor” collection) is not a Russian joke. But how often would history provide an opening to share it here?

A husband and wife were watching a TV program about psychology explaining the phenomenon of mixed emotions. The husband turned to his wife and said “Honey that’s a bunch of crap. I bet you can’t tell me something that will make me happy and sad at the same time.”
She replied “Out of all your friends, you have the biggest penis.”

Posted by: Aleph_Null | Mar 14 2025 11:55 utc | 306

another perspective here
Trump’s special envoy Kellogg removed from talks “at Russia’s request” due to “too pro-Ukrainian position”, – NBC News citing sources
▪️Putin considers Kellogg “too pro-Ukrainian.”
➖Kellogg is a former American general who is too close to Ukraine. Not our type of person, not the caliber we are looking for, the official said.
▪️According to the American official, Russia did not want to involve Kellogg in the negotiations in Riyadh on February 18.
@Slavyangrad

Posted by: Jo | Mar 14 2025 11:58 utc | 307

Putin to trump…
Are you going to dance all eveing with your hand on my arse ? Or are we going to ‘really’ negotiate ?

Posted by: Mark2 | Mar 14 2025 11:59 utc | 308

delusional ukraine perspective
The reaction from Ukraine to the remote discussion between Putin and Trump has arrived.
Head of the Ukrainian President’s office Andriy Yermak stated that Ukraine will not enter into a frozen conflict.
“Our partners from the US are also against such a scenario, we are against Minsk-3, and Europe will be involved in the peace process,” Yermak said.
At the same time, the Ukrainian publication “European Pravda”, citing its source, wrote that the “red lines” for Kiev are the reduction of the army and a ban on joining the EU and NATO .
“There can be no restrictions on the size of the army, and there can be no prohibitions regarding Ukraine’s participation [in international organizations], including the European Union and NATO. The question [of the red line regarding] NATO was also raised by Yermak, that Russia should not have the right of veto,” the publication writes.
Still don’t think we are that close to a deal, NATO membership is the brightest of redlines for Russia.
@Slavyangrad

Posted by: Jo | Mar 14 2025 12:00 utc | 309

“There can be no restrictions on the size of the army, and there can be no prohibitions regarding Ukraine’s participation [in international organizations], including the European Union and NATO” said Yermak”.
Posted by: Jo | Mar 14 2025 12:00 utc | 311
More propoganda layering by the west. I dont EVER remember Russia saying it objected to kiev joining the EU. But correct if im wrong.

Posted by: HERMIUS | Mar 14 2025 12:07 utc | 310

Ukraine Weekly Update, 14th March 2025: May be useful to some: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-weekly-update-c59

Posted by: The Busker | Mar 14 2025 12:12 utc | 311

Putin to trump… are we going to ‘really’ negotiate ?
Posted by: Mark2 | Mar 14 2025 11:59 utc | 310
Why negotiate? Trumpy just planted more nukes in Europe ( x.com/SMaurizi/status/1898406322842062955 )
On the other side, Putin has completely forgotten “nato go back”, “no more US nukes in Europe”, “close US biolabs” and so on. Now Putin asks Trumpy to invest in Russia, anything he wants he can have. Give them a bit of time and they’ll appear in Ukr, if not used directly or on npps they fully control. But feel free to think the smo is a victory and that all those zombies dead from their own suicide attacks, not thanks to some RF great strategy, matter to anyone or will change anything.

Posted by: rk | Mar 14 2025 12:27 utc | 312

I dont EVER remember Russia saying it objected to kiev joining the EU. But correct if im wrong.
Posted by: HERMIUS | Mar 14 2025 12:07 utc | 312
They did say that multiple times in the first years of the smo. I think last year or so they started saying that Ukr can join any EU it wants. If you have time to waste I’m sure you can find the news on Tass or some other news agency, I don’t have any direct links

Posted by: rk | Mar 14 2025 12:32 utc | 313

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Mar 13 2025 21:02 utc | 183
Nice clarification, Love. We hate it too.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Mar 13 2025 21:27 utc | 197
I sure do. Wasn’t it Twain who said patriotism is supporting your country always, and your government when it deserves it?
It’s been a long, long time since I supported “my” government.

Posted by: Hunsdon | Mar 14 2025 12:32 utc | 314

I see a bigger picture here. Putin offers agreement (in principle) and plays nice in public. Meanwhile, Trump changes from day to day or hour to hour. Just as desperation has emerged in EU/US, that desperation can helpfully deepen such that Russia gets what it wants simply by being patient – and dragging the whole war along. This emotional instability works against EU/US.
I continue to wonder about Ukraine running away from the battlefield. Can this continue? If so, it’s reason for more patience and Bull sh*tting about peace, etc.

Posted by: Eighthman | Mar 14 2025 12:36 utc | 315

It’s like some of you never even negotiated for so much as buying a car.
A week ago Ukraine was loudly proclaiming it didn’t need a new car and would never buy one from Russia. Now we are in the stage where Ukraine says that it wants a new car if it is practically free and Russia says they’ll sell one to Ukraine if Ukraine pays $10k over sticker. In the end, Ukraine will buy the car at least sticker or slightly above because it really needs a new car. Russia will throw in the nice floor mats and a year’s worth of free oil changes and Ukraine will go away bragging about how shrewd they were. Trump and company will step in and talk about nice the car is, what a fair deal it was for all, and how everyone worked hard and made meaningful concessions to make the purchase happen.
The real hold up will come when they get to the financing departments and start talking about the payments. Ukraine is already thinking about defaulting and they want some security guarantees to keep the repo man away. Russia is thinking Ukraine’s credit is shaky and that it should probably stick a GPS device on that car to make it easy to find when Ukraine starts to miss payments.
Meanwhile, Europe is across the street with a shady used car lot telling Ukraine it has a sweet 78 Dodge that is real clean and dependable, just burns a little oil, if they don’t want to make the payments on a new car.

Posted by: CullenBaker | Mar 14 2025 12:56 utc | 316

Roland Oliphant, an op-edder for the Daily Telegraph, is disparaging VVP for “engaging in a classic Russian negotiating tactic,” a strategy right out of the Lavrov Playbook: “By breaking every proposal down into an infinite number of constituent parts, he will attempt to appear co-operative while playing for time, bogging down the talks, and trying to use facts on the ground to squeeze out the maximum possible concessions.”
Okay… Oliphant sees this in a negative light. But where, in negotiating anything—whether the purchase of a house or a car—does one *not* augur for the best possible deal-?
Oliphant acknowledges that DJT’s team faces “a test of nerve and credibility” but urges DJT to get tough: “This could include unleashing the “bone-breaking” sanctions package Senator Lindsey Graham has threatened if Russia does not comply – in other words, smacking the Kremlin’s “donkey” face with a two-by-four, as Gen Keith Kellogg, Donald Trump’s special envoy, boasted to have done to Ukraine.”
It is rich indeed for the fig-leaf belligerent of the war, the hegemonic muscle & money behind Ukraine, the one whose Secretary of State, Rubio, just last week stated that the U.S. is in a proxy war w/ Russia—it is rich indeed for a co-belligerent to serve both as mediator & face-whacker, w/ a 2 X 4 in hand.
Is not the demand in essence, for a ceasefire on terms agreeable to the hegemonic paymaster & the proxy, and on a timeline convenient for the paymaster & the proxy, merely a diplomatic weapon in the hegemon’s arsenal—? Sign or else.
In what world—?
VVP, for his part, claims that Russia has the upper hand all along the line elsewhere, not just in Kursk – effectively asking why on earth Russia should stop fighting now. Moreover, the debate about who would secure the ceasefire itself could drag on for days or weeks. A peacekeeping force? Unarmed patrols? Under which international organization? From which contributing countries? And with what mandate?
If peace does not come this weekend, VVP “will try to lure the Americans into open-ended diplomacy while using force to wring maximalist concessions and lay the groundwork to blame Ukraine if – when – the talks (or the ceasefire, if things get that far) collapses.”
And guess where *the ball* is—? The ball is now in DJT’s court.

Posted by: steel_porcupine | Mar 14 2025 12:56 utc | 317

Posted by: Jo | Mar 14 2025 11:58 utc | 309
Regarding Keith Kellogg and why he was removed as envoy
<< Gen Kellogg's daughter has run an NGO in Ukraine since before the SMO commenced; its focus centers on facilitating to and fro of the foreign mercenaries who wind up fighting for Ukraine--like in the Da Vinci Wolves, the Mozart group, etc. Her NGO also sees to the rehabilitation of foreign mercenaries and their transit back to homelands. Funding for her NGO is coming from an external source, perhaps USAID or National Endowment for Democracy or the Open Horizons group, perhaps a mix of all three. The sticky thing is that Gen Kellogg received an all expenses paid trip to Kiev on the dime of his daughter's NGO in autumn 2023. This info did not come to light in the U.S. until mid-January 2024. At that point it was not only an optics problem but also an ethics problem: how compromised was Gen Kellogg-? It was easier for him to serve as a stalking horse of sorts in the early days of the minerals deal, but after that his utility had exhausted itself.

Posted by: steel_porcupine | Mar 14 2025 13:07 utc | 318

Posted by: Jo | Mar 14 2025 11:58 utc | 309
##########
Removing Kellogg is the Art of the Deal.
He was a bit player who didn’t even attend diplomatic meetings IIRC.
Asking the Americans to remove him is about building compliance. The Russians ask for the tiniest of things, and if they do, the subtle signal is good faith.
And if they do not, the Russians know there is much more work to do.
It’s like a romantic relationship. It starts with small (near trivial) acts of service which can eventually become a marriage.
If a foundation of cooperation cannot be established this at not be “the one”. 💔

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Mar 14 2025 13:10 utc | 319

>>>> may not be, “the one”

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Mar 14 2025 13:12 utc | 320

Posted by: bored | Mar 14 2025 11:23 utc | 304
#########
Russia overreacting to every provocation is how they trade victory for defeat.
Overreacting is what the Ukrainians want Russia t do.
Demilitarization continues.
These attacks only harden Putin’s (and the Russian peoples) resolve.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Mar 14 2025 13:16 utc | 321

Konstantin Kosachev, chairman of the international affairs committee of the upper house of Russia’s parliament, probably reflected the mainstream elite opinion in his Telegram post: “Russia is advancing. Real agreements are still being written there at the front. Which they should understand in Washington, too.”
Recalcitrant & unbowed, Andriy Yermak jutted his chin on 13 March: “We all understand that part of our country is currently under temporary Russian occupation – that is a matter of fact, a reality. But if we are talking about legally recognizing any part of Ukraine as belonging to Russia, that will not happen.”
Regarding “the nuances”—but not the scatological weight of the term, which others have nicely annotated—a professor at Syracuse University, Brian Taylor, said, “Putin’s answer seems carefully crafted to sound like a ‘yes’ to Trump but is actually a ‘no’ in practice, unless Ukraine is forced to submit to Russia’s demands.”

Posted by: steel_porcupine | Mar 14 2025 13:18 utc | 322

Not really understanding while people are still arguing on nuances or, in Msm if Putin said yes or no.
Only thing that really matters is who really have the cards.
If Trump has the cards, like the usual next sanction from hell, let’s see it.

Posted by: Mario | Mar 14 2025 13:27 utc | 323

It has been a week chock-full of media dynamics, so notice of this may have evaded your attention<< From TASS on 10 March: "According to the information received by the SVR, the British leadership sees a threat to its interests in the promotion of dialogue between the US and Russia to resolve the Ukrainian conflict," it noted. "London fears that this could lead to a failure of the British strategy ‘to contain’ Moscow, the central part of which is control of Ukraine. Its possible loss, according to British estimates, would undermine plans to create a Russophobic ‘belt of limitrophe states’ in Europe and organize Russia’s maritime ‘blockade.’" "London is extremely irritated by the fact that [US President] Donald Trump ‘dialogues with Russia as a superpower and shows disregard to close allies.’ [UK Prime Minister Keir] Starmer was stung by the US President’s ‘provocative question’ during the joint press-conference about the ‘ability of the British nation to confront the Russians alone.’ Following the Prime-minister’s visit to the United States, Downing-street concluded that ‘true friends’ were de facto kicking the British to the curb of the process of reformatting European and global security." According to the Foreign Intelligence Service, in the current environment, "The British authorities consider it an ‘urgent priority’ to undermine ‘peacekeeping’ efforts of the new US administration on the Ukrainian track. "The media and specialized NGOs are tasked with demonizing Trump, portraying him as ‘a man with a poor peacekeeping record and susceptible to Kremlin manipulation.” Another example cited by the SVR is that "Starmer’s Cabinet bends over backwards to strengthen the sustainability of the Kiev regime in the face of growing pressure from Washington." "Loud promises are coming from London to send rockets, troops and aviation to Ukraine, no matter what it costs UK economy which is in a deep recession. Nevertheless, behind the scenes, British politicians admit that all these intentions may be ‘ado about nothing’ since without continued US support they are unrealizable," the SVR emphasized. << https://tass.com/politics/1925079

Posted by: steel_porcupine | Mar 14 2025 13:30 utc | 324

If Putin wants to send the jewed-up West’s Eurotrash a clear message, he could simply Nuke “Israel”. That would put a swift end to several ‘unfathomable’ conflicts around the world.
The jews need as many conflicts as they can initiate in order to distract from what they’ve been doing in Palestine for 80 years.
The jewed-up Eurotrash don’t give a flying fuck about Palestinians. How come they’re prepared to risk life and limb for Ukranian sovereignty and independence?
It does not add up.

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Mar 14 2025 13:43 utc | 325

I continue to wonder about Ukraine running away from the battlefield. Can this continue? If so, it’s reason for more patience and Bull sh*tting about peace, etc.
Posted by: Eighthman | Mar 14 2025 12:36 utc | 317
There is no ongoing rout whatsoever in the others sectors. Even in Kursk the ukrainians will likely form a new defensive line somewhere in their territory.

Posted by: Satepestage | Mar 14 2025 13:43 utc | 326

Funny to see how the western press didn’t want to understood VVP’s judo with “the ball is in your camp now.” language element. And what it will lead to for the ones suggesting all this “cease-fire” charade.
Hellensky is still in last year “piss plan” optics with “1991 borders” , several Russian oblast , NATO membership , 1200 Tanks & 800 planes , nuclear weapons , Russian seat at the security council and 42 gazillions dollars in reparations … I’m nearly not exaggerating.

Posted by: Savonarole | Mar 14 2025 13:48 utc | 327

Ukrainian neo-Nazi Demyan Ganul, who was accused of playing a key role in the 2014 mass killings of anti-Maidan activists in Odessa was treated to point-blank street corner justice on Friday morning, 14 March, executed by a one assassin @ close range.
Graphic footage shows the even in broad daylight in the presence of numerous passersby & in range of security cameras.
Ganul led the enforcer unit of the Right Sector unit in Odessa. He was instrumental in the heinous Odessa massacre: chasing a anti-Maidan protesters into a building which was subsequently locked w/ the protesters inside and set ablaze.
More recently, Ganul has been part of a team which forcibly abducted individuals who resisted conscription.
Last July, Ganul posted pix of his attack on a fitness trainer who had insulted Ukrainian military personnel. Local reports indicated that the trainer was also sexually assaulted before being turned over to authorities.
<< BTW: on 13 March, the European Court of Human Rights ordered the Ukrainian government to compensate victims of the 2014 massacre in Odessa for its failure to prevent the violence itself or to conduct a proper investigation. << In the goosestepping sig heiling neo-Nazi *democracy* of lunatics, Ganul may already have a street named for him.

Posted by: steel_porcupine | Mar 14 2025 13:48 utc | 328

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Mar 14 2025 13:43 utc | 327
###########
Putin will never do that.
Many Israelis are dual passport Russian Jews.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Mar 14 2025 13:49 utc | 329

LoveDonbass @183: “…no offense to any of my American friends at the bar. I don’t hate you. I hate what your country does.”
I’ll admit I feel a little guilty at times over my country’s behavior in the world. After all, I suppose I could have done more to set things right, like go all Ted Kaczynski on America’s oligarchs, not that it would have really changed anything.
That said, I really do like how your country happily fellates my country without even having to be asked. I mean, the US whipping it out and slapping it on your country’s face works, but a subtle gesture towards the zipper on ol` Uncle Sam’s trousers and your nation drops to its knees, eager to please as well. That kind of willful servility really goes to a people’s heads, you know. America’s huge ego is easily understood after that.

Posted by: William Gruff | Mar 14 2025 13:51 utc | 330

RE: “I see a bigger picture here. Putin offers agreement (in principle) and plays nice in public. Meanwhile, Trump changes from day to day or hour to hour. Just as desperation has emerged in EU/US, that desperation can…”
Posted by: Eighthman | Mar 14 2025 12:36 utc | 317
An even bigger picture, in my opinion, revolves around the internal combustion heating up in the US itself.
As Trump emphasizes Canada, Mexico, Greenland, Russia, Iran, Hamas, Gulf of “America”, China, Ukraine, Panama Canal. (crickets from Trump on Syria)…
My point is pretty much everything but edicts being announced from the Kingship, however, internal, not the fake fault lines of red vs. blue, but serious, very serious economic issues, not only that threatens global hegemony, but the U.S. economy is being made to scream by the Central Bankers to carry out their new “reset” that they are rapidly running out of time to implement.
Their imaginings of a “global” central banker reset run out of the trio of US, London & Switzerland to rule the entire World from is now a lost cause. The U.S. is now punting, and now just going for half of the World control, but realizes it “half” is weak as crap.
I don’t think the U.S. economy is as far off as others do in its controlled, but nevertheless, collapse to reset as others think. What really ends up ending this war will be the slow, but certain collapsed economy and the proceeding upheaval from all sectors in the U.S. including the citizens.
All these tariffs, sanctions touted out endlessly everywhere on everyone in the World, screams desperation.
Because US is current global currency holder, it won’t be a USSR type collapse, but a collapse for reset in hopes to take as many nations into subjugation with it as possible.
Any this “foreign” focus by Trump is just public sideshow for US citizens to not pay attention to the myriads of edicts and subversion of every constitutional order in the land that remains, while they gut the economy and force a solution on the West.
Long post in response to your “desperation” insight, and just to say, Ukraine war will economically be forced to end, and in my opinion, that’s the only way it ends.

Posted by: Trubind1 | Mar 14 2025 13:57 utc | 331

Posted by: Savonarole | Mar 14 2025 13:48 utc | 329
###########
It is easy to forget that the masses of the voting public in the West have never used, let alone heard of Telegram.
They are informed by state approved TV.
I am a firm believer that people cannot act upon that which they do not know.
Keeping people unaware is key to making them compliant and docile.
Many states dreams of filling hearts and minds with endless propaganda and lies.
See the EU’s crackdown on TikTok during elections for an example of how threatened TPTB are by information channels that they do not control.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Mar 14 2025 13:59 utc | 332

trump begging putin on twitter to spare the lives of the ukrainian soldiers/mercenaries that are surrounded by the russian military, IN ALL CAPS nontheless. must be some natos i guess.
vargas, rk and others always bitch and moan how putin is “begging”, and yet here we have the mighty west begging, litteraly (heh), in all caps. bet they will be quiet.

Posted by: Justpassinby | Mar 14 2025 13:59 utc | 333

As people ping pong truce/peace discussions, let us take a long long step back.
1. The nato early 2022 attempt to force RF to fight against the AFU fortifications in donetsk (or lose the oblasts) was not stupid, it was a very dangerous play that seriously risked a strategic defeat of RF in ukraine (or a destabilization at home)
2. Putin’s preempting and choosing other axis for the attack was extremely well played (if suffering from being severely under strenght) in the long term.
3. April peace talks should have solved everything, RF was overextended but AFU had no chance of wining
4.Bozo then sold what was not an impossibility. In the medium term AFU could do a lot of damage and between that, sanctions and other destabilizing factors, RF could fall. Bonus points for being done with soviet weapons and slav on slav killing (we’re discussing UKUS interests, not ukrainian)
5. We could say that the danger zone, for RF, was august 2022 to july 2023. Very risky but finally excellent choices were made by RF. A deployment of wagner to hold the line, a minimal 300k mobilization, cleaning up the RFAF, outting its industry in partial war mode, retracting unsustainable lines, building serious defense lines, dealing with the wagner folly.
6. But by august 2023 it was over for AFU, having exhausted the soviet material (and the western trinkets given for the breakthrough offensive) , it would start to need and ask for more and more top shelf material (that europe didn’t have in any significant quantities) . Having lost over a million and a half men, replenishing would start being a major problem. It’s ability to break RF lines had been proven lacking. AFU objectives were unattainable and had wasted a huge portion of its capability for nothing.
7. Meanwhile RF had overcome it’s instabilities, streamlined and even thrived in spite of all sanctions and destabilization efforts.
8. Game over.
9. Stalemate enters into play, UKUSEU double down, not for victory but to pin down RF in an eternal ukraine quagmire, but knowing full well that would entail other boots on the ground if things went beyond 2027.
10. By the end of 2023 RF pushes the pedal to the floor. What was assumed to be a sustainable situation suddenly saw its lifespan cut by half.A lot because AFU stubbornly continued to fight for every useless inch.
11. The august kursk caper was a suicidal doubling down that I still can’t understand
12. End of 2024 is another idiotic stage where going full WWIII seemed like thee western objective.
13. 2025 what is trump doing? I would say he’s fully aware of the previous points and needs not to lose to much face, and if he could winsomething he’d love it.
If us does not disengage, and throws unkraine under the bus, whoever loses launches nukes.
As eu is still in 12 mindset, he must (at minimum) disengage the us from a nuclear exchange.
Is it easier to convince putin that if he keeps it local he can nuke uk, etc?
Is it easier to convince western europe to fold?
So two major scenarios, peace (of sorts) or nukes (in a nice scenario a limited european exchange)
So yes, as I mentioned often enough, a 10 year truce will do nicely.

Posted by: Newbie | Mar 14 2025 14:02 utc | 334

In an interview w/ Fox News on 13 March, JD reacted to Poland’s request to host nuclear weapons on its territory “as a deterrent to future Russia aggression.”
JD said he would be “shocked if President Trump supported the idea of American nuclear weapons being based in Poland.”
<< Apparently Polish President Duda had discussed this idea w/ Keith "stalking horse" Kellogg during the latter's trip to Warsaw, per the FT. << In the interview, JD depicted Collective Biden as having "sleepily walked us into the nuclear conflict, allowing Russians and Ukrainians to bleed out." VVP has consistently denied allegations that Russia poses a military threat to European NATO nations. And for his part DJT has said in response to a reporter's inquiry about whether Russia would attack further into Europe, "I don't believe that. Not even a little bit." In fact he has criticized the idea of an arms race, even suggesting that the Great Powers should reduce their nuclear arsenals. << In an unrelentingly weird atmosphere where Euro-NATO elites *insist* that Russia is on the verge of launching "full-scale" attacks into their countries, but simultaneously refuse to have any contact or engagement w/ Russia at all, it is easy to see that preemptive strikes--NATO country-toward-Russia--are working their way onto the table. Paraphrasing Bismarck: preemptive strikes are like committing suicide out of fear of death.

Posted by: steel_porcupine | Mar 14 2025 14:04 utc | 335

Trump posted on Twitter begging Putin to spare the lives of surrounded Ukrops (and no doubt US /Nato officers, is what he is after, as was the case after Mariupol battle).
Putin already designated them terrorists. No negotiations with terrorists, no mercy.

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 14 2025 14:05 utc | 336

To the drunks who live in Plato’s Cave (or Borrell’s Garden), and who DON’T KNOW what HAPPENED YESTERDAY between the USA and RUSSIA! Pay due attention to the last paragraph!
Russian President Vladimir Putin met with US President Donald Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, in Moscow on Thursday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has said. Witkoff arrived in the Russian capital to deliver detailed information on the results of this week’s US-Ukraine talks in Saudi Arabia.
Following their talks in Jeddah on Tuesday, Washington and Kiev published a joint statement in which Ukraine agreed to a proposed 30-day ceasefire with Russia, while the US announced the resumption of military aid and intelligence sharing with Kiev.
On Thursday, media reports suggested that Witkoff had personally traveled to Moscow to deliver the details of the proposal to top Russian government officials, who have yet to issue a formal response.
Speaking to journalists on Friday, Peskov confirmed Witkoff’s visit, stating that the US representative had met with Putin to deliver “additional details” to the Russian leader. Putin also gave the envoy “information and additional signals for President Trump,” Peskov said.
During a press conference on Thursday, Putin stated that Russia “absolutely supports” the idea of resolving the Ukraine conflict through peaceful means and is ready to discuss Trump’s ceasefire proposal. The Russian president suggested that dialogue could include a personal conversation with the US leader.
However, he stressed that all the details of a ceasefire must first be clarified, noting that Moscow is not interested in a short-term solution and instead wants to reach a lasting resolution of the conflict.
Putin cited a system of “control and verification” to monitor any truce as well as Kiev’s potential attempts to use the pause in hostilities to rearm and reinforce its troops on the front line. He also noted the importance of clarifying the status and fate of Ukrainian troops currently encircled in Russia’s Kursk Region, where Kiev launched an incursion last year.
Source: RT in English

Posted by: Elber | Mar 14 2025 14:06 utc | 337

Posted by: CullenBaker | Mar 14 2025 12:56 utc | 318
Indeed. This is going to take a while.
Grab some popcorn and watch Rubio and Waltz slowly broken on the wheel and await Elensky’s resignation in a huff.

Posted by: ChatNPC | Mar 14 2025 14:11 utc | 338

The West likes to have a monopoly on designating who is a terrorist.
According to the State Dept. Iran is the greatest global sponsor of terrorism.
And the Houthis, who don’t leave Yemen, are terrorists as well.
As “racist” became in 2016, “terrorist” has become a useless and overplayed slander in the West.
I don’t know that it will happen but the Russians should televise several of the high profile war crimes proceedings when they occur.
There needs to be a public record about modern Banderism and the abuse of civilians.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Mar 14 2025 14:22 utc | 339

The Indian Generals Put the US Ceasefire Horse After the Russian Army Cart Where It Belongs – Putin Invites Trump to Get Details From the Horse’s Mouth
https://johnhelmer.net/the-indian-generals-put-the-us-ceasefire-horse-after-the-russian-army-cart-where-it-belongs-putin-invites-trump-to-get-the-details-from-the-horses-mouth/
“In this discussion on Thursday morning, Chennai time, two leading Indian military analysts, Lieutenant-General (ret.) Ravi Shankar and Brigadier (ret) Arun Saghal explain that the 30-day ceasefire which the Americans and British have proposed for the Ukraine battlefield should follow as one of the outcomes of the end-of-war negotiations, and not be a precondition for talks.
Otherwise the ceasefire proposal is nothing more than a smoke screen to cover US and NATO reinforcement and resupply of the Ukrainian forces which are now surrounded or in retreat.

Listen to the hour-long podcast…”

Posted by: John Gilberts | Mar 14 2025 14:34 utc | 340

see the video at the links
heavily sedate her, lock her up, and throw away the keys
https://x.com/GeromanAT/status/1900517842652438899
— GEROMAN — time will tell – 👀 — @GeromanAT
lock that crazy bitch up
https://x.com/ColumbiaSIPA/status/1900276325342134780
Columbia | SIPA @ColumbiaSIPA
“Ukrainians are going to die, more of them, if this pause lasts significantly longer.”
@columbiaIGP Affiliated Faculty Member Victoria Nuland is worried about the cut off of the intelligence stream from the US to Ukraine. Watch her conversation with @HillaryClinton, Stephen Biddle, @IanBremmer, Timothy Frye, and Keren @YarhiMilo:
https://www.youtube.com/live/nf3rTHwf5vE

Posted by: michaelj72 | Mar 14 2025 14:36 utc | 341

DJT begs on Truth Social for VVP to spare the lives of “1000s of Ukrainian soldiers” trapped in the Kursk kill-box, though he must know that a beaucoup number of NATO mercs teamed w/ the fig-leaf AFU for this ill-advised Incursion, too.
So he may be catching flak from NATO members.
But in this proxy war, which the U.S. is waging against Russia, DJT did not, for instance, order his proxy Zelensky a month ago to withdraw militarily from an impossible gambit, which rapidly was going from bad-to-worse, in order to save “1000s of Ukrainian soldiers.”
Suddenly it is expedient for DJT to beg VVP not to enact a massacre the likes of which we have not witnessed, according to DJT, “since WWII”–?
DJT in this, his war, has beaucoup blood on his hands.

Posted by: steel_porcupine | Mar 14 2025 14:36 utc | 342

DJT got caught up in the rare earths and failed to notice how blood-soaked the earth of Kursk Region was growing w/ NATO mercs & fig-leaf AFU fighters cauldronized in a kill-box.

Posted by: steel_porcupine | Mar 14 2025 14:38 utc | 343

Trump deserves a ….
‘Noballs’ peace prize.
😁

Posted by: Mark2 | Mar 14 2025 14:42 utc | 344

Why Lvov isn’t a smoldering ruin is a mystery (I can understand sparing Kiev and Odessa but come on…).
Posted by: bored | Mar 14 2025 11:23 utc | 304
I think that Putin is afraid.

Posted by: vargas | Mar 14 2025 14:43 utc | 345

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Mar 14 2025 13:59 utc | 334
I agree there are lots of people propagandized by the states approved medias , but nowadays I’m not so sure they are still the majority. The usual “gaussian curve” of public opinion shrink itself a lot since the plandemic and other cases of narrative overdoses.

Posted by: Savonarole | Mar 14 2025 14:44 utc | 346

@karlof1, 205

Indeed, he offered a new hypothesis for the war on Ukraine–the rare earths were the goal and for that Novorossiya needed to be depopulated.

Is this really a new hypothesis? Here are some quotes from an interview (youtube dated April 29 2014) with Ukrainian media analyst Bogdan Butkevych

“Donbass is not just an absolutely depressive region…a wild number of absolutely unnecessary people live there”

“There are 4 million people living in the Donetsk region of which 1.5 million are unnecessary people”

“We don’t need to understand Donbass…We just need to use it as a resource.”

“There is a category of people who must just be killed. Unfortunately it is impossible to reach an agreement with them.”

“Unnecessary people” – has a ring to it. Something like the Nazi slogan “life unworthy of life” or Yuval Hariri’s “useless eaters”.

Posted by: cirsium | Mar 14 2025 14:45 utc | 347

To the drunks who live in Plato’s Cave (or Borrell’s Garden), and who DON’T KNOW what HAPPENED YESTERDAY between the USA and RUSSIA! Pay due attention to the last paragraph!
Posted by: Elber | Mar 14 2025 14:06 utc | 339
Thanks for an excellent review, Elber. I have just one correction to give — I am not a drunk, but I do live in Plato’s cave and am happy to be here, in the company of the returning true philosophers who understand the importance of dialogue, and of those who merely by accident of location are presently seeing the morning sun after a windblown night.
Sleepers awake! It is a blessed awakening, and there is much work to do.

Posted by: juliania | Mar 14 2025 14:50 utc | 348

re. vargas
…but we know the rule, and there is only one written, and for good reason:
No using a handle to pretend.
Not different one’s, and so without need to say, not someone else’s.

Posted by: Ornot | Mar 14 2025 15:00 utc | 349

Some, under the influence of Alcibiades, propose drunkedness and a noble lie reside in Plato’s cave. This is nonsense. Plato describes neither. In fact, he later proposes, in the final dialogue, “The Laws” that we are all in the presence of a conversation happening on the way upwardstowardthe cave of Zeus.. We Christians see that journey as if towards the tomb of Christ, a Lenten activity. In fact, on Wednesday of Holy Week in my region, pilgrims are physically present on the main highways northward to a sacred shrine. This also happens in other faiths as well.
So now we begin a new journey, not down towards endless war but up towards peace.

Posted by: juliania | Mar 14 2025 15:02 utc | 350

@NightTripper Being in favour of one does not necessarily mean agreeing to one ….
Posted by: Don Firineach | Mar 13 2025 16:22 utc | 34
VP’s response is quite elegant – diplomatic judo. The piss plan is categorically unacceptable, e.g. demands for return of kidnapped children. Logically, DJT did not intend Putin to agree to it – it was for domestic and allied consumption only. Putin, however, apparently accepted it with ‘minor caveats’. In fact, he has kicked it into the long grass of protracted negotiations a la North Vietnam round table et al). But DJT cannot reject this refusal because it allows him to save face by claiming the big win. Amazing really.

Posted by: Tom Paine | Mar 14 2025 15:03 utc | 351

british dunce stramer:

Putin’s appetite for conflict and chaos is already there, and it will only grow.
And Russia is already threatening our skies, our waters, our streets, our national security.
And that’s why I think the fundamental tasks of policy right now are to make tough decisions on security.

dear brits. better stop breathing and drinking water. it may be russian.

Posted by: Justpassinby | Mar 14 2025 15:07 utc | 352

Posted by: Savonarole | Mar 14 2025 14:44 utc | 348
###########
I should have clarified my thoughts better.
Apologies for the sloppiness in my posting.
A majority of the voting and tax paying public.
Usually older and less technologically savvy.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Mar 14 2025 15:09 utc | 353

I found an interesting article on ZH that is being totally blacked out and censored by Google.

The United States Marine Corps has warned that the constant support it has provided to Ukraine’s military over the last three years of war has significantly drained its own supplies and could impact war readiness. This was the testimony of the second highest-ranked Marine, Gen. Christopher Mahoney (assistant commandant of the Marines), to a Senate subcommittee on Wednesday.
“The Marine Corps has provided over $2 billion [replacement cost about $5 billion] in equipment and munitions to the Armed Forces of Ukraine via PDA presidential drawdown authority

Rather than cite ZH, here is the direct source:
https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/statement_of_general_christopher_jmahoneyusmc.pdf
This story is being embargoed by the Hill, Politico, and all other MSM.
I believe it has very strong implications. Trump is fucked. There are no more weapons left to send. The cupboards are empty. China, North Korea, and Iran know this.
He has no realistic options to pressure Russia, other than silly economic sanctions. Trump isn’t stupid – economic sanctions function equivalently to tariffs, which he loves. They protect the country being sanctioned from globalism, foreign competition, and imports.
What a perfect situation for Russia! They’ve only grown stronger and more autarkic.
Russia has endured and thrived for over 3 years under US sanctions. The country’s GDP is better than that of Europe’s. Any further sanctions are symbolic only.
I believe that Putin is aware of this, too. Any further aid packages of a military nature will only harm US readiness even more, tempting Iran or China to make a move.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Mar 14 2025 15:16 utc | 354

Why was Sylenski put under so much pressure in Riyadh, or rather, his commission… (No one believes that he wasn’t there anyway.)
Why did such an ill-conceived plan, a “ceasefire,” have to be created, as unripe as a green banana?
Is it about saving the NATO officers in the Kursk pocket in the shadow of this offer?
That all of this happened so ILL-CONCEIVED, without a plan and without reason, well, if you believe it, keep dreaming.
If the reason isn’t in the pocket, then the only thing that remains is… Trump is playing a dirty game… whether with Putin or Ukraine in connection with the war-mongering Europe, we’ll see.
One thing is certain: the way Trump is behaving and expressing himself right now, he is absolutely NOT worth trusting.
Apparently, that’s also the reason why there’s so much lameness here at the bar; no one can see through it, no one can see the logic in it… AND that just goes to show that IT WORKS

Posted by: berthold | Mar 14 2025 15:17 utc | 355

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Mar 14 2025 15:16 utc | 356
#########
Dangerous times in the prison yard when sharks smell blood in the water.
America has bullied for so long, this was never going to end with hugs and forgiveness. Everyone will want their pound of flesh.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Mar 14 2025 15:19 utc | 356

As an exercise for barflies, try putting any of the keywords in that story I linked to into Google or Bing’s search engine. My experience was that it yielded zero results. I had to find it by using DuckDuckGo.
I believe this is definitive proof of censorship and news embargoing by Google, probably at the behest of the US state dept. BTW – who controls that State Dept, now?

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Mar 14 2025 15:23 utc | 357

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Mar 14 2025 15:16 utc | 356
What does Trump want with sanctions or tariffs against Russia, especially since it currently appears that the US actually urgently needs the little it still imports from Russia, e.g., uranium… They haven’t been able to get titanium since August 2024 because Putin is sanctioning the US with it and several other things!
The US has done about $4 billion in sales with Russia.
Russia, on the other hand, has over $40 billion with India…
So what does Trump want other than big talk?

Posted by: Ost Rentner | Mar 14 2025 15:26 utc | 358

I found an interesting article on ZH that is being totally blacked out and censored by Google.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Mar 14 2025 15:16 utc | 356
Not completely, google is giving out this one
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/marines-readiness-military-spending/2025/03/13/id/1202688/
“No. 2 Marine Tells Senate Ukraine War Impacting Readiness”
But interesting how all the other dozens of articles on his hearing and marine corps readiness are careful not to mention ukraine at all.
The censuring is being done way upstream.

Posted by: Newbie | Mar 14 2025 15:30 utc | 359

@361
There more the west escalates the more holes in materiel readinesss.
Soon Trump will not be able to get any noise out of his Sabre.
Like U.K. and EU

Posted by: paddy | Mar 14 2025 15:34 utc | 360

I don’t know what Trump wants, but I know he has no cards to play. He isn’t dumb, so he probably realizes it.
Stories like the one I found are useful for filtering and seeing through his lies and bluffs. He has no way to escalate, other than nukes.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Mar 14 2025 15:35 utc | 361

The murder suspect in the assassination of Ukrainian TCC enforcer Demyan Ganul looks like a father who lost a son. That’s how justice looks like.
https://tgstat.ru/en/channel/@DDGeopolitics/142102
https://tgstat.ru/en/channel/@DDGeopolitics/142084

Posted by: xor | Mar 14 2025 15:36 utc | 362

I believe this is definitive proof of censorship and news embargoing by Google, probably at the behest of the US state dept. BTW – who controls that State Dept, now?
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Mar 14 2025 15:23 utc | 359
Google’s indexing has been working for a long time, mostly only within the Western bubble. You’ll notice this when you use a VPN because you get different results than if you use a direct search.
This was already the case during the coronavirus pandemic and hasn’t changed; only more terms have been added to the index.
Even with Firefox, there are differences, but not as noticeable as with a VPN.
If you know the URL or title you’re looking for, it works reasonably well. If you search for terms related to the topic, you’ll only land on welcome pages.
I tested it from Europe with a VPN…if I enter the USA, it only gets as much as from Germany, and the same goes for Canada.
If I select Asia, I find the most…if I select Belarus (Russia is blocked by almost all providers), I find even more. This is called, or was called during the socialist-communist era in the Eastern Bloc, CENSORSHIP, and we’re familiar with it here and used to it…but you probably aren’t?
Am I smiling now?

Posted by: Ost Rentner | Mar 14 2025 15:36 utc | 363

As an exercise for barflies, try putting any of the keywords in that story I linked to into Google or Bing’s search engine. My experience was that it yielded zero results. I had to find it by using DuckDuckGo.
I believe this is definitive proof of censorship and news embargoing by Google, probably at the behest of the US state dept. BTW – who controls that State Dept, now?
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Mar 14 2025 15:23 utc | 359
As i Mentioned, the filter is fully in the media, and general Mahoney didn’t make things easy for them.
He went fully official on their asses within the opening statement (don’t blame us if things go tits-up )
https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/statement_of_general_christopher_jmahoneyusmc.pdf
Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) Training Readiness
The Marine Corps has provided over $2 billion (replacement cost about $5 billion) in equipment and
munitions to the Armed Forces of Ukraine via PDA. Replacement and reimbursement for these inventory
losses are needed to rebuild the depth of magazine needed to gain and maintain lost proficiency. Though
some funds have been reimbursed through PDA replenishment funds, the defense industrial base (DIB)
faces significant challenges in meeting production demands for replenishment. New procurement lead
times delay replenishment, as existing programmed deliveries take priority. To mitigate impacts, the
Marine Corps has adjusted training allocations and inventory management. However, continued high-
demand support may require the service to accept further risks to either training readiness or strategic
readiness

Posted by: Newbie | Mar 14 2025 15:37 utc | 364

Posted by: Newbie | Mar 14 2025 15:30 utc | 361
Thanks, Newbie.
So the google filter let one slip through the net!
To your point, there is something upstream trying to suppress the dissemination of this information. Note that Newsmax is a very right wing site.
I bet FoxNews has nothing on the story.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Mar 14 2025 15:37 utc | 365

Google’s indexing has been working for a long time, mostly only within the Western bubble. You’ll notice this when you use a VPN because you get different results than if you use a direct search.
This was already the case during the coronavirus pandemic and hasn’t changed; only more terms have been added to the index.
Even with Firefox, there are differences, but not as noticeable as with a VPN.
If you know the URL or title you’re looking for, it works reasonably well. If you search for terms related to the topic, you’ll only land on welcome pages.
I tested it from Europe with a VPN…if I enter the USA, it only gets as much as from Germany, and the same goes for Canada.
If I select Asia, I find the most…if I select Belarus (Russia is blocked by almost all providers), I find even more. This is called, or was called during the socialist-communist era in the Eastern Bloc, CENSORSHIP, and we’re familiar with it here and used to it…but you probably aren’t?
Am I smiling now?
Posted by: Ost Rentner | Mar 14 2025 15:36 utc | 365
Ok, then it can be a local thing, but as mentioned, the most interesting part is the total absence of the word ukraine in ALL (but one) of the articles covering the hearing.
Media has completely fallen into line with the old regime, how soon before they are thoroughly deloused?

Posted by: Newbie | Mar 14 2025 15:42 utc | 366

Ukrainian drone strike on Tuapse, which is in Southwest Russia on the Black Sea damaged an oil tank and started a fire more than 1,000 square meters.

Posted by: MiniMO | Mar 14 2025 15:46 utc | 367

re Hoarsewhisperer | Mar 14 2025 13:43 utc | 327
People always seem to forget that the Israeli citizenry is only about 80% really or claimed Jewish — and this doesn’t include the OTs. Nuking “Israel” would wipe out hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of Palestinians.
I can’t see how nuking the Palestinians’ rightful home does the Palestinians any favors. Are they clamoring for Israel to be nuked?

Posted by: malenkov | Mar 14 2025 15:50 utc | 368

Even the closure of the Kursk adventure this week has the reek of theatre about it.
How have the Russians at the very moment that a s-called ‘peace envoy’ is sent to Moscow, managed to eject the interlopers after months of leetting them hang around?
Posted by: Night Tripper | Mar 14 2025 11:09 utc | 300
Russians have been shrinking Kursk in the last few months. And they were pushing them out even before Trump’s proposal. But yes, they are very slow. I think it was due to the huge amount of Russian soldiers there, while Russia not wanting or having a large enough amount of soldiers to go after them. Russia really needs a conscription.
Russia needs at least another 100,000 active soldiers in this war to start really making progress.

Posted by: MiniMO | Mar 14 2025 15:50 utc | 369

Related posts (RT)
” USA IS BLANK ”
Reuters: USA wants to supply GLSDB bombs to Ukraine instead of ATACMS missiles!
The US is ready to resume deliveries of precision-guided GLSDB long-range bombs to Ukraine, the Reuters news agency reported, citing people familiar with the matter.
Kyiv has reportedly completely exhausted its stockpiles of US ATACMS missiles, and the GLSDB bombs are intended to fill this gap. The GLSDBs have been modernized to better counter Russian electronic suppression systems.
GLSDBs can hit targets up to 150 kilometers away, while ATACMS missiles have a range of up to 300 kilometers.
The contracts for the purchase of these bombs were signed during the term of former US President Joe Biden.

Posted by: berthold | Mar 14 2025 15:51 utc | 370

here is another story that, while not embargoed, runs contrary to the “Super-duper triple-secret sanctions from Hell” blather that Trump is spewing:
https://archive.ph/rxeuw
Russias Oil Exports Surge in sign that US Sanctions Starting to Crumble – Bloomberg

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Mar 14 2025 15:53 utc | 371

“I think it was due to the huge amount of Russian soldiers there”
Posted by: MiniMO | Mar 14 2025 15:50 utc | 371
I meant Ukrainian soldiers – I think they had more 80,000 soldiers there at the start. Russia won’t give numbers still there, but I’m guessing it is now around 35-40 thousands.

Posted by: MiniMO | Mar 14 2025 15:54 utc | 372

Posted by: MiniMO | Mar 14 2025 15:50 utc | 371
#########
Russia is not short of manpower.
It is able to maintain regular rotations and effectiveness without conscription.
They have created several new major formations over the last 18 months in anticipation of a direct conflict with NATO.
Russia already has a tight labor market, conscription would only worsen that.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Mar 14 2025 15:57 utc | 373

@Ukrainian drone strike on Tuapse, which is in Southwest Russia on the Black Sea damaged an oil tank and started a fire more than 1,000 square meters.
Posted by: MiniMO | Mar 14 2025 15:46 utc | 369
Exactly. Ukrainian. Only Biden was guiding atacms and himars. Trump never does it, it’s only the Ukr specialists and scientists or the evil Europeans that attack Russia, US has nothing to do with Ukr.
Also I see that Trump demands today that all captured or blocked in Kursk to be released immediately. He has spoken! I understand his idea because Putin released Azovs and many of them were sent to vacation in Turkey where they recovered on the beach and a few months later they returned to continue. British “mercenaries” were also released only to return a few months later. It seems fair to do the same in Kursk. How can they invade Belgorod without a vacation and new weapons?

Posted by: rk | Mar 14 2025 16:00 utc | 374

oh, cmon, RK. I’m still pissed about the stupidity of Putin trusting Erdogan but face it – those captured in Kursk are likely all dead.
Fool me once, and all that.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Mar 14 2025 16:03 utc | 375

GLSDBs can hit targets up to 150 kilometers away, while ATACMS missiles have a range of up to 300 kilometers.
The contracts for the purchase of these bombs were signed during the term of former US President Joe Biden.
Posted by: berthold | Mar 14 2025 15:51 utc | 372
Saab did a cheap good work on those, but specs for anti-EW were clearly off.
But they are limited to the number of rocket engines recycled like that.
——————–
Russia is not short of manpower.
It is able to maintain regular rotations and effectiveness without conscription.
They have created several new major formations over the last 18 months in anticipation of a direct conflict with NATO.
Russia already has a tight labor market, conscription would only worsen that.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Mar 14 2025 15:57 utc | 375
Don’t waste time wine mini, and you are absolutely right, one problem going forward is that RF has been too successful and has grown it’s army by 50%+ but at the cost of taking in almost half of each levée as contract recruits.
On the plus side it has half a generation fully trained, experienced and rotated veterans.

Posted by: Newbie | Mar 14 2025 16:04 utc | 376

Posted by: rk | Mar 14 2025 16:00 utc | 376
###########
The Azov prisoners were released in trade.
Do you remember who the Russians got in return?

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Mar 14 2025 16:04 utc | 377

Posted by: Newbie | Mar 14 2025 14:02 utc | 336
I can answer 11 for you, Newbie. Alexander Mercouris said and has repeated that he thinks the Kursk operation was part of the nuclear obsession of Zelensky. Recall that that threat was voiced at the start of the Ukrainian attack upon the eastern oblasts, and that in central Dnieper area the struggle was all about nuclear.
To their enormous credit, the Russians have been engaged in developing non-nuclear capabilities such as the oreshnik which supercede nuclear without the latter’s devastating effect on the environment in which we all have to survive. The latter is the rare earth we all need to keep in mind. It is rare indeed. We will never have another. If you want an existential motive, that’s the mother of them all.

Posted by: juliania | Mar 14 2025 16:05 utc | 378

Posted by: Newbie | Mar 14 2025 14:02 utc | 336
I can answer 11 for you, Newbie. Alexander Mercouris said and has repeated that he thinks the Kursk operation was part of the nuclear obsession of Zelensky. Recall that that threat was voiced at the start of the Ukrainian attack upon the eastern oblasts, and that in central Dnieper area the struggle was all about nuclear.
To their enormous credit, the Russians have been engaged in developing non-nuclear capabilities such as the oreshnik which supercede nuclear without the latter’s devastating effect on the environment in which we all have to survive. The latter is the rare earth we all need to keep in mind. It is rare indeed. We will never have another. If you want an existential motive, that’s the mother of them all.
Posted by: juliania | Mar 14 2025 16:05 utc | 380
But that one was off the table not 3 days into the operation.
Glorious failure and no chance of retrying with proper RF forces aware.
Yes, you do have an answer (that I also shared) for the first 3 days, but not for the 7 months that followed.
And everything is a bit moot after 9, after 9 the AFU had a choice of running to the dniepre and holding out maybe a decade, capitulate or do a fast suicide (as we have been seeing)
Relevant to the thread, trump has accepted putins respectful offer and says the sandwich does not taste of shit in any way… is considering asking for more.
https://tass.com/world/1928441
WASHINGTON, March 14. /TASS/. The White House believes that Thursday’s discussions on resolving the crisis in Ukraine was productive and, according to White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt, the international community has never been so close to achieving peace in Ukraine.
“Yesterday was a productive day for the United States of America and for the world in terms of peace. We have never been this close to peace,” she said.

Posted by: Newbie | Mar 14 2025 16:15 utc | 379

started a fire more than 1,000 square meters.
Posted by: MiniMO | Mar 14 2025 15:46 utc | 369

Reality check: it’s a square 20 by 50 meters, so your glee is misplaced

Posted by: Rutte | Mar 14 2025 16:18 utc | 380

The faith of Demyan Ganul, a “loving father and patriot” according to the Ukr propagandists, was long overdue.
https://nitter.poast.org/EventsUkraine/status/1826215206672023911

8 Aug 2024 On July 6, an Odessan fitness trainer got angry at mobilization officers in his gym He was visited the same day by local nationalist Demyan Ganul. The trainer was then mobilized into the Azov brigade, where ‘work is being done on him’
21 Aug 2024 Update: a video has been making the rounds of the trainer chained to a tree. He says: “I am a faggot. I have just been fucked in the ass. I will serve the armed forces of Ukraine.”
21 Aug 2024 Katarsis, a large Ukrainian nationalist telegram also shared it with gloating and most users reacting by laughing
21 Aug 2024 A final comment – reprisals like this are why polls in Ukraine are not very accurate. People put on the patriot mask necessary to survive. The fact that people are increasingly giving ‘the wrong answers’ shows that the fear of death at war is overcoming the fear of reprisals

And that’s just one instance of his TCC activities. There was also the Odessa massacre. His assassin was merciful.

Posted by: xor | Mar 14 2025 16:21 utc | 381

He has no way to escalate, other than nukes.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Mar 14 2025 15:35 utc
“…We have never been this close to peace,” she said.
Posted by: Newbie | Mar 14 2025 16:15 utc
Oh dear. We’re really close.

Posted by: MorePain4Cakes | Mar 14 2025 16:28 utc | 382

He has no way to escalate, other than nukes.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Mar 14 2025 15:35 utc
“…We have never been this close to peace,” she said.
Posted by: Newbie | Mar 14 2025 16:15 utc
Oh dear. We’re really close.
Posted by: MorePain4Cakes | Mar 14 2025 16:28 utc | 384
Either decade long truce or peace as in rest in peace 😀

Posted by: Newbie | Mar 14 2025 16:36 utc | 383

I remember one professor coining the verb logorrea. I’m afraid that is the difference between Biden and Trump.

Posted by: MorePain4Cakes | Mar 14 2025 16:47 utc | 384

verb -> substantive

Posted by: MorePain4Cakes | Mar 14 2025 16:49 utc | 385

Germany arranges to change its constitution to go into deficit on “infrastructure and defence” spending…

Posted by: Ornot | Mar 14 2025 16:51 utc | 386

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Mar 14 2025 15:09 utc | 355
Don’t be so sure about that. Lots of “older” people have a smartphone now. Even my 96 YO mother knows how to use a PC and internet, she have a Tablet and a Smartphone newer than mine (were I found some pr0n ..rohhh). Most of the administrative tasks are done online now.
Yeah, most of that cohort still don’t use it as their major feed for news and information, but I was surprised to see how quickly those things can evolve. What surprised me the most was seeing lots of “older people” resorting to “alternative media” during the pandemic. Mum knows about Joe Rogan and watched some of the shows !
Paradoxically , I’m more worried for the “digital natives” generation, they seem more akin to fall in algorithmic traps than our elders. But they vote less (for what it’s worth nowadays anyway …)

Posted by: Savonarole | Mar 14 2025 17:00 utc | 387

Here’s what Putin said today at his Security Council Meeting:

President of Russia Vladimir Putin: Colleagues, good Evening!
We will begin work, and today we have the planned issue of restoring Russian-American relations.
We know that the new administration, led by President Trump, is doing everything to restore at least some of what was practically reduced to zero, destroyed by the previous US administration. This process is not easy, if not difficult. Nevertheless, as everyone knows, I had a telephone conversation with President Trump, and our Foreign Minister had the first contacts with his American counterpart, and Russian presidential aide [Yury] Ushakov met with his counterparts. So, in general, the situation is beginning to move. Let’s see what will come of it. We will deal with this topic today. We have two speakers: Sergei Lavrov and Sergei Naryshkin Evgenievich.
But before we start work, I would like to say that we have read today’s address by the President of the United States, Mr. Trump, to spare the lives of servicemen of the Ukrainian army, whose units are blocked by Russian troops in the zone of the invasion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Kursk region.
In this regard, Please note that Ukrainian militants committed in the invasion zone numerous crimes against the civilian population. These deeds, like I have already said that the Prosecutor General’s Office of the Russian Federation qualifies as terrorism.
At the same time, we understand President Trump’s call to be guided by humanitarian considerations with regard to these troops. In this I emphasize that in the event of laying down their arms and surrendering, they will be life and dignified treatment in accordance with the norms are guaranteed international law and the laws of the Russian Federation.
For the effective implementation of the call of the President of the United States, an appropriate order is needed from the military-political leadership of Ukraine to lay down their arms and surrender.
I suggest Let’s move on to the agenda for which we have gathered today. You are welcome the floor is given to Sergei Lavrov. [My Emphasis]

It’s really annoying when the entire context isn’t told and BS gets spun from what is provided. As of last night’s reports, most Ukie troops are already out of Kursk, while some remain isolated in the forests. I must agree with Putin that if the Ukie troops want to live then they must surrender wherever they are. Unfortunately, that’s an order only Zelensky can give, and we all know he won’t.

Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 14 2025 17:14 utc | 388

Don’t know if this is true, but worrying sign if it is…

Russian forces say they’ve received an order to not attack the Ukrainian troops while they retreat from Sudzha, Kursk.
https://x.com/OSINTWarfare/status/1900592612148400243

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 14 2025 17:14 utc | 389

Don’t know if this is true, but worrying sign if it is…
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 14 2025 17:14 utc
Putin knows his adversaries, and their unbridled madness. My guess: Trump is the one who denies pushing the button atm.

Posted by: MorePain4Cakes | Mar 14 2025 17:26 utc | 390

Don’t know if this is true, but worrying sign if it is…
Russian forces say they’ve received an order to not attack the Ukrainian troops while they retreat from Sudzha, Kursk. https://x.com/OSINTWarfare/status/1900592612148400243
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 14 2025 17:14 utc | 391
Let’s see… say 4.000 leaving under fire controlled roads (and FAB galore)
4.000 mangled bodies on the road might be bad PR right now.
or maybe another scenario I pitched some time ago (for sudzha proper) imagine letting them regroup inside sumy and then just make hazelnut purée, but in a way that the west wouldn’t like showing the results.
Little to show concerning bodies but a serious devastation that the west would rather stay secret.
Or maybe it’s giving something to trump, maybe too many western troops to have vacation accidents.
2.000-4-000, it’s a week’s worth of killing, probably less. Is it worth upsetting trump?
Yes, maybe putin is giving something that trump can use to prove RF’s good will and common decency.
We have seen that , for the record, he cannot just let theem go, but maybe something in between is useful.

Posted by: Newbie | Mar 14 2025 17:29 utc | 391

Heavy google censorship happened overnight the momment biden took office.
The information tap regarding activist sites was turned off. Oh boy did i notice. Oh boy did i miss it.
Not speculation, trust mark2.
PS trump has’nt turned it back on and wont.
He is the swamp.

Posted by: Mark2 | Mar 14 2025 17:32 utc | 392

4.000 mangled bodies on the road might be bad PR right now.
Posted by: Newbie | Mar 14 2025 17:29 utc | 393

I have to disagree with this one. The west made Ukraine its sword, and there is no choice but to shatter it. Letting thousands of troops go freely means more Russian casualties, and more tougher fights elsewhere.
The west needs to see thousands of its proxy troops lying on the roads to get a message. Preferably Nato officers too.

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 14 2025 17:32 utc | 393

No quarter can be given to any remnants of the UAF (or mercs) still in Kursk. It’s Russian land. Putin was clear – surrender, or die.
Let’s hope it is a false report. One suspicious detail is it mentions Sudzha, when that was taken several days ago, and the LoC is well south of there. Any UAF in Sudzha proper are likely dead or captured. Maybe they meant the general Sudzha salient>

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Mar 14 2025 17:36 utc | 394

On a positive note, there is a fair chance that the previous report is bogus. Russia is using experimental drones to attack the retreating AFU forces from Sudzha.

Russian FPV Drone Crews Target Ukrainian Forces and Drones in Sudzha
The destruction of Ukrainian manpower and armored vehicles retreating from the settlement of Sudzha, as well as the destruction of Ukrainian Baba Yaga-type drones, was carried out by FPV drone crews from the Russian Defense Ministry’s Rubicon Test Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies. The operation involved precise targeting of retreating enemy forces, significantly impacting their mobility and effectiveness in the area.
In addition to ground targets, the drone crews successfully neutralized the threatening Baba Yaga drones, further safeguarding the region from potential attacks. The footage of these operations showcases the advanced capabilities of Russian unmanned systems in modern combat scenarios.
🌊 Join Military Wave (https://t.me/militarywave)
https://t.me/militarywave/16710

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 14 2025 17:40 utc | 395

Western MSM is in damage control mode, trying to desperately refute Trump’s claim of thousands of Ukrainian troops in encirclement.

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 14 2025 17:44 utc | 396

The whole Sudzha thing was about optics. “Look – we’re winning – we hold a chunk of Russia.” Use of it in negotiations as a bargaining chip was also a motivation. The obsession with optics makes it difficult to admit that Kiev suffered a disaster. Kiev has trouble doing so and so do its Western sponsors.

Posted by: Waldorf | Mar 14 2025 18:00 utc | 397

The whole Sudzha thing was about optics.
Posted by: Waldorf | Mar 14 2025 18:00 utc | 399
I thought it was about the gas metering station as the resident garden gnome was pushing here for week. In the end the gas pipe played its role after all, lmao.
Returning all kidnapped citizens by Ukraine in Kursk oblast and turning over war criminals responsible for atrocities on civilians should be added as another condition for the ceasefire.

Posted by: 5thcolumn | Mar 14 2025 18:08 utc | 398

Posted by: 5thcolumn | Mar 14 2025 18:08 utc | 400
Thanks for the reminder! That garden gnome was right, just not in the way the thought he’d be about the Sudzha pipeline being critical to the Kursk salient.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Mar 14 2025 18:10 utc | 399

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jewo0MzPeLU
Summary of Sudzha events released today, with some interesting images.

Posted by: Waldorf | Mar 14 2025 18:56 utc | 400