Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
March 3, 2025
Starmer’s Summit Gives Birth To A Mouse – It’s Stillborn.

A mountain was in labour, uttering immense groans,
and on earth there was very great expectation.
But it gave birth to a mouse. This has been written for you,
who, though you threaten great things, accomplish nothing."

Sundays meeting of selected European leaders in London reminded me of the above Aesop fable.

Prime Minister Starmer's summit, called for in haste, has achieved nothing:

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer rallied his European counterparts Sunday to shore up their borders and throw their full weight behind Ukraine as he announced outlines of a plan to end Russia’s war.

Starmer said he had worked with France and Ukraine on a plan to end the war and that the group of leaders — mostly from Europe — had agreed on four things.

The steps toward peace would:

  • keep aid flowing to Kyiv and maintain economic pressure on Russia to strengthen Ukraine’s hand;
  • make sure Ukraine is at the bargaining table and any peace deal must ensure its sovereignty and security; and
  • continue to arm Ukraine to deter future invasion.
  • Finally, Starmer said they would develop a “coalition of the willing” to defend Ukraine and guarantee the peace.

“Not every nation will feel able to contribute but that can’t mean that we sit back,” he said. “Instead, those willing will intensify planning now with real urgency. The U.K. is prepared to back this with boots on the ground and planes in the air, together with others.”

It is far from certain whether Russian President Vladimir Putin will accept any such plan, which Starmer said would require strong U.S. backing. He did not specify what that meant, though he told the BBC before the summit that there were “intense discussions” to get a security guarantee from the U.S.

“If there is to be a deal, if there is to be a stopping of the fighting, then that agreement has to be defended, because the worst of all outcomes is that there is a temporary pause and then Putin comes again,” Starmer said.

Starmer said he will later bring a more formal plan to the U.S. and work with Trump.

That mouse the mountain gave birth to is stillborn:

– Trump has made clear that the U.S. will not agree to back any European forces in Ukraine.

– Zelenski, unless under more pressure, will not agree to a ceasefire without U.S. backing.

– Russia does not agree to any temporary ceasefire. It wants a new permanent security architecture for Europe and beyond.

– Russia does not agree to forces from NATO countries in Ukraine. It started the war to prevent that to happen.

– Russia will not agree to a rearming of Ukraine. Its declared aim is to 'de-militarize' the country.

– Russia is winning the war. Neither Starmer nor Europe have the means to prevent it from doing that.

What Starmer and Macron are trying to do now is the very same they had failed to do last week when the both made the pilgrimage to Washington DC:

Macron, Meloni and Starmer were among European leaders who spoke with both Trump and Zelenskiy over the weekend, as they tried to get the two men back to the table. They believe there’s still a narrow path to reviving the minerals deal that the presidents had planned to sign, giving the US leader a vested interest in deterring further Russian aggression against Ukraine.

They still want to win Trump's agreement to prolong the war. I doubt that this second attempt will be more successful than their first try.

One wonders how Starmer and Macron became delusional enough would even try that plot. One reason may be that get advised my 'military experts' like these:

Despite President Volodymyr Zelensky’s efforts, the United States has made it clear that it does not intend to offer Ukraine security guarantees or directly contribute to any forces supporting Ukraine after the imposition of a ceasefire. It therefore falls upon Europe to plan for such a force. This is a serious undertaking. Can European powers field such a force without hollowing out Europe’s ability to defend NATO’s borders, all while the United States potentially withdraws forces from the continent?

While the length of front and the size of Russian ground forces may give the impression that the task is infeasible, in our view it is practicable if European nations are willing to pay the cost. With the right force balance, investment, and political framework Europe could generate a credible commitment.

There is nothing fantastical about a European mission in Ukraine.

Watling and Kofman, the authors of the above, call for the deployment of three(!) European brigades to Ukraine:

Given the significant degradation in Russian force quality over the course of the last three years of fighting, the initial force deployed could be as few as three combat brigades, or their equivalents.

Since the start of the war the Russian forces in Ukraine have more than doubled in size. Russia is now producing more missiles and drones than ever before. Its soldiers have gained valuable experience. How can this be seen as a 'degradation in Russian force quality'?

Ukraine itself has deployed some 100 brigades in the war and Russia about twice that many.

How three inexperienced multinational brigades from western Europe could in any way effect that balance is way beyond me.

Is there any way to direct these people to a more realistic and sane view of the world?

Comments

Mareo @ 502
Liked 👍 and agreed, they have made a whip for their own back by distroying their own credabilty / beleavabilty.
Peace keeping forces are not on the table.
Vladimire Putin says… “they will be anilated”
It looks like surender.
Now we watch a mega face saveing exersize by the usal offenders and spin merchants.
Spin this in public while the whole world watches. Egg on face.
Respect

Posted by: Mark2 | Mar 4 2025 18:00 utc | 501

Monitering the bbc radeo misinformation service.
They say thus… Putin says ukraine will no longer exsist.
Thats what i call negotiating.
And negotiating from a position of strength.

Posted by: Mark2 | Mar 4 2025 18:18 utc | 502

Sorry about my spelling, not intentional.
Posted by: Mark2 | Mar 3 2025 20:32 utc | 104
_________
I don’t believe it. Only a person who knows English well can make the spelling “mistakes” you make. I often wonder why you go to the trouble. But it’s okay, don’t change.

Posted by: Gene Poole | Mar 4 2025 18:24 utc | 503

Not so, Ireland had full control over Queenstown (Cobh) and the other “Treaty Ports”, thanks to I think a 1936 Baldwinn deal. Churchill often lamented their absences, as British anti submarine patrols for the Atlantic had to leave from Liverpool or Plymouth rather than Cobh or Lough Swilly in Donegal.
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Mar 4 2025 13:41 utc | 416
And Castletownbere as well I think!

Posted by: jpc | Mar 4 2025 18:40 utc | 504

In short: Europe is fucked, the leaders of Europe know it, and all they achieve with this saber-rattling is reminding everyone just how weak they are.
Posted by: Monos | Mar 3 2025 20:24 utc | 102
And fronted by the arrogant power hungry incompetent VDL

Posted by: jpc | Mar 4 2025 18:46 utc | 505

Starmer thinks that he is going to save the UK economy by filling Ukraine with British weapons:
https://www.declassifieduk.org/keir-starmers-plan-for-uk-growth-the-ukraine-war/

Posted by: Avtonom | Mar 4 2025 18:59 utc | 506

Re: Refugees ?
There will be very few refugees fleeing West. The population of Kiev controled territory is maybe 12 million these days.
Peace might bring the reverse. Plenty of refugees living in the West will return to their homes once the Banderistas are gone.

Posted by: Exile | Mar 4 2025 19:14 utc | 507

“It is a personal matter with Trump.
Biden tried to imprison him, democrats too. So, break democrats, drown Biden, Hunter and the Biden “Family.”
Zelensky worked against Trump before the election, so he has to be destroyed. ”
seems apparent. Yet you fail to include a major adversary seemingly behind the roots of the opposition to Trump that should be on all of our radars.
I suppose when The Big Z yields, that means they have as well.
I would prefer Trump to stand against that crown, myself.
The world could be improved greatly with their agenda in the dustbin.

Posted by: Not Ewe | Mar 4 2025 19:22 utc | 508

When you then ask Von der Leyen about the money, she calls you Russian propagandists.
https://x.com/MyLordBebo/status/1896870076822819257
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 4 2025 12:52 utc | 406
What would she say if uou mentioned her pHDy shenanigans?

Posted by: jpc | Mar 4 2025 19:36 utc | 509

Posted by: CullenBaker | Mar 3 2025 20:40 utc | 108
______
To whom are you referring when you say “we”?

Posted by: Gene Poole | Mar 4 2025 20:04 utc | 510

First “Commander” is not a rank. Was it a Captain? A Lt?
Posted by: BroncoBilly | Mar 4 2025 16:32 utc | 483
commander is O-5 in the US Navy.
capt is o6, ltCommander is o4.
Not going to read any more.
How embarassing for you.
Id suggest not comnig at me so unprepared next time.

Posted by: UWDude | Mar 4 2025 20:23 utc | 511

I said all that to say… the real damger is Iran… and a big question is does Russia stick by Iran, or is all this tripartite reorganization setting the stage to isolate Iran?
Posted by: UWDude | Mar 4 2025 21:40 utc | 32
i mean, the real danger of Trump going to war, is not with China or Russia, I dont think he ever would, but he is true-blue zionist, and war woth Iran may be his “messianic” mission.

Posted by: UWDude | Mar 4 2025 21:46 utc | 512

I said all that to say… the real damger is Iran… and a big question is does Russia stick by Iran, or is all this tripartite reorganization setting the stage to isolate Iran?
Posted by: UWDude | Mar 4 2025 21:40 utc | 32
i mean, the real danger of Trump going to war, is not with China or Russia, I dont think he ever would, but he is true-blue zionist, and war woth Iran may be his “messianic” mission.

Posted by: UWDude | Mar 4 2025 21:47 utc | 513

BroncoBilly | Mar 4 2025 16:32 utc | 483
Especially for the Navy, resupply isn’t easy. Wasting ordnance would be the last thing that officer would want on his annual appraisal (not certain of the Navy term for it). The career risk would be enormous for anyone who ordered this.
You should also consider the increased danger of landing a jet on an aircraft carrier with fuzed bombs under the wing. all landings are controlled crashes which are a bit more extreme on a carrier. The risk of a bomb coming off on landing or worse on the deck is worth the few bucks a 500 lb bomb costs. It was supposed to be expended anyway.
rookie mistake on Commander. I can tell you a funny story about a Navy Capt I worked for. She was trying to find out the status of a work order on her building and called the Air Force Lt Col in charge of civil engineering on base. She identified herself as Capt xxx and the LTC started giving her a bunch of shit and being rude. She then asked to be forgiven for not knowing all the ins and outs of the Air Force being that she was in the Navy. it took a moment for the Air Force dude to remember the Navy Captain is equivalent to Air Force full colonel and his tone changed.

Posted by: dan of steele | Mar 4 2025 21:47 utc | 514

419, Ghost:
When one’s predictions are wrong, one should be less confident in the future. Unfortunately, the Internet hoi polloi don’t seem to learn from their mistakes. It’s a form of Dunning Kruger, I think.

Posted by: Anonymous | Mar 4 2025 22:43 utc | 515

My prediction has been “muh stalemate”, which the very slow rate of advance seems to corroborate. Snail pace remember.
I’ve also thought for a while that we end up with a line of contact stoppage eventually. Seems like the US is pushing that now (to the dismay of both sides). If we do end up with a stoppage at the line of contact (leaving aside some minor adjustments like trading Kursk portion for Kharkiv portion), then the slow rate of advance will hurt the Russian interests, certainly will hurt them versus what many here talk about (e.g. the Odessa dreamers).
FWIW, I think there’s about zero chance Ukraine walks out of some very well defended major city like Kherson, just because “Putin declared it Russia”. If Russia wants something, they will have to take it. Regardless of what side you are on, it is insane to think Ukr or Russia will cede parts of the “claimed five oblasts”, which they have bled for so hard. (But the Kursk for Kharkiv deal is likely, although kind of a small change issue.)

Posted by: Anonymous | Mar 4 2025 22:49 utc | 516

Has there been a stalemate? I don’t see it that way.
The Russians have been killing “Ukrainians” at high ratios and the overall average seems like it could be close to 10 to 1 and maybe higher.
Please take extra care to notice and understand that those small numbers are far larger than they look:
· “10 to 1” is very little on a small scale where something like a single bombing run can be “250 to 0”.
· “10 to 1” is a large and lopsided number for “three years of warfare” where it is the difference between two hundred thousand and two million.
That’s when it’s starting to look more like conveyor belt slaughter than any kind of “equal” fight.
There also isn’t much point in arguing about exactly where along this figurative conveyor belt the Russians are standing right now or did yesterday or will tomorrow.
One doesn’t have to push to collapse a front, pulling back can be just as effective. In simpler terms on smaller scales this is the difference between someone walking into an ambush and someone being pulled into an ambush.
· · · · · · ·
rk:
Thanks for the Tass link. Hard to say what the exact purpose of that flight is beyond them really wanting to have a look at something further away than usual. If that is all it is then it wouldn’t be something any civilian decides.
I think the point Putin made and often makes is that the war doesn’t make any sense (and never has) for the US (or the west) from an economical perspective. He threads lightly though and it’s clearly on purpose; he simply points out the obvious facts on occasion. It is the gentlest and likely most productive form of needling possible; a simple reminder of basic truth in a low voice.
All the businessmen in Germany understand perfectly well what he is saying 🙂

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Mar 5 2025 5:22 utc | 517

About the illusive mineral deal
“This whole thing is like two bald men fighting over a comb!”
@Arch Bungle | Mar 4 2025 16:03 utc | 473
well put

Posted by: petergrfstrm | Mar 5 2025 9:27 utc | 518

“Kyiv was seeking to resume Qatar-mediated negotiations that came close to agreement in August before being derailed by Ukraine’s invasion of Kursk…”
Kiev was this close, but that darned Ukraine sandbagged them? Come on, FT, do better.

Posted by: LordBydon | Mar 5 2025 15:21 utc | 519

Posted by: Anonymous | Mar 4 2025 22:49 utc | 516
Agree that neither side is going to cede hard-fought territory in some smoke-filled room.
However, there will be no trading Russian territory, as the Kursk salient is shrinking at the rate that it will be long gone by the time there are any serious negotiations. Please ignore Dima as he gets hysterical about every rumor.
And remember, Macron and Starmer want Ukraine to fight on until the last 14 year old Ukrainian catched a bullet in the brain.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Mar 6 2025 13:29 utc | 520

Starmer et al have made a non decision regarding the war in Ukraine. They have put their annoyance and frustrations ahead of the welfare of those in the front line. The brutalist position is that victory is the only valid excuse for war. To allow the killing to continue without the hope of victory is reprehensible.

Posted by: Blackeyebart | Mar 9 2025 23:50 utc | 521