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Trump’s Tariff Wars Will Hurt U.S. The Most
President Donald Trump seems to believe that tariffs can help to bring manufacturing back to the States.
Trump's tariffs have so far been aimed at four targets, the U.S. neighbors Canada and Mexico, China and, soon to come, the European Union.
During his first term Trump negotiated the U.S.M.C.A. with Mexico and Canada, a free trade zone covering the U.S. and its neighbors. He is now attempting to change the rules of it. But the way he does so is inconsistent.
On January 21 Trump promised tariffs on Canada and Mexico. On February 1 he announced them. Three days later he delayed the implementation of those tariffs. On February 27 he said the tariffs would go into effect on March 4. On March 5 he was again forced to pull back (archived):
President Trump said on Wednesday that he would pause tariffs on cars coming into the United States from Canada and Mexico for one month, after a 25 percent tariff that he placed on America’s closest trading partners a day earlier roiled stock markets and prompted stiff resistance from industry.
Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, read a statement from Mr. Trump on Wednesday saying that White House had spoken with the three largest auto makers, and that a one-month exemption would be given to cars coming in through United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement.
A one-month exemption is a joke. It takes years to move parts production from one country to another. There are hundreds of companies in Mexico, Canada and the U.S. which make the myriad parts that go into a car. It is an completely integrated industry which took years to build.
U.S. car manufacturers had trusted that U.S.M.C.A. would hold. Should the tariffs apply anytime soon they will have to increase their prices by hefty margins or halt their production.
Trump's tariffs in north America can largely be seen as pressure method for gaining some valuable concessions from neighboring countries. They are part of a negotiation scheme and unlikely to be a longer term problem.
But Trump's tariffs against China are a different animal. The Trump administration views China as a strategic enemy and would like to seriously hurt it. But China is able to hit back (archived):
Cont. reading: Trump’s Tariff Wars Will Hurt U.S. The Most
Palestine Open Thread 2025-046
News & views related to the war in Palestine …
Ukraine Open Thread 2025-045
News & views related to the war in Ukraine …
Open (Neither Ukraine Nor Palestine) Thread 2025-044
News & views not related to the wars in Ukraine and Palestine …
Musing About Europe Without NATO
Tonight Trump will address Congress. There are unconfirmed rumors that he will announce a U.S. exit from NATO.
Now that would be a bummer for the Europeans.
During the last 80 years European leaders never had to think strategically about their own nations' security. The U.S. and USSR did that for them.
How would or should Europe look without NATO?
Over the last eight decades NATO and the U.S. (and until 1990 the Warsaw Pact and Russia) have largely prevented wars between European countries. The continent – where nations have been at war with each other for centuries – could easily fall back into that bad habit.
Just look up what Polish revisionists think of Germany and how that country is re-building its army …
As a German I understand that my country is, financially and size wise, the biggest dog in the European pack (ex Russia). It would be wise for it to declare absolute neutrality and to refrain, like Austria, from joining any alliance. Its army, based on a short conscription of every men, should be stationed and act only within its own borders.
That done it would be time to launch a new Concert of Europe (incl. Russia):
… a general agreement among the great powers of 19th-century Europe to maintain the European balance of power, political boundaries, and spheres of influence. Never a perfect unity and subject to disputes and jockeying for position and influence, the Concert was an extended period of relative peace and stability in Europe following the Wars of the French Revolution and the Napoleonic Wars which had consumed the continent since the 1790s.
The last concert did not keep the continent at total peace but it prevented crises from escalating beyond narrowly defined borders. In that respect it lasted from 1820 up to the start of the first World War.
To conduct such a concert would probably require another Prince Metternich or Otto von Bismark. There is however no such person in sight. (Lavrov would be good at that job but he is Russian, too old and otherwise committed.)
The EU bureaucracy in Brussels has neither legitimacy nor competence in inner-European or international security issues.
Don't count on it when NATO is out.
What are other alternatives?
Zelenski Tries To Make Nice With Trump
As a consequence of Friday's Oval Office Shouting Match President Trump has halted military aid to Ukraine.
Just hours later the (former) President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelenski agreed to submit to Trump's wishes:
Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський @ZelenskyyUa – 15:37 UTC · Mar 4, 2025 ·
I would like to reiterate Ukraine’s commitment to peace.
None of us wants an endless war. Ukraine is ready to come to the negotiating table as soon as possible to bring lasting peace closer. Nobody wants peace more than Ukrainians. My team and I stand ready to work under President Trump’s strong leadership to get a peace that lasts.
…
Zelenski acknowledges Trump's primacy in their relation.
Zelenski then introduces a 'new' idea into the 'ceasefire' talks:
We are ready to work fast to end the war, and the first stages could be the release of prisoners and truce in the sky — ban on missiles, long-ranged drones, bombs on energy and other civilian infrastructure — and truce in the sea immediately, if Russia will do the same. Then we want to move very fast through all next stages and to work with the US to agree a strong final deal.
This is an attempt to delay further steps.
It is also a revamp of the 'truce in the sky' idea President Macron had introduced into the discussion during the last weekend:
In an interview with Le Figaro newspaper, he proposed a four-week truce "in the air, at sea and on energy infrastructure". It would not cover ground fighting along the front line in the east.
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In a separate interview, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said: "Such a truce on air, sea and energy infrastructure would allow us to determine whether Russian President Vladimir Putin is acting in good faith when he commits to a truce. And that's when real peace negotiations could start."
Britain however had immediately rejected the motion.
Macron's idea was not new at all. There have been several agreements between Russia and Ukraine to stop large range attacks against each others infrastructure. It was Ukraine which had blocked or violated (archived) these agreements each and every time.
As FT reported in late October:
Ukraine and Russia are in preliminary discussions about halting strikes on each other’s energy infrastructure, according to people familiar with the matter.
Kyiv was seeking to resume Qatar-mediated negotiations that came close to agreement in August before being derailed by Ukraine’s invasion of Kursk, said the people, who included senior Ukrainian officials.
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said this month that a deal to protect energy facilities could signal a Russian willingness to engage in broader peace talks.
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Both Kyiv and Moscow have previously accepted that stopping attacks on Ukraine’s power grid and Russia’s oil refining capacity was in their mutual interest.
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Ukraine nevertheless plans to keep striking targets, including oil refineries, to pressure Russia into the talks, according to the senior Ukrainian official.
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Four Ukrainian officials told the Financial Times that Kyiv and Moscow had come to a “tacit agreement” last autumn to not strike each other’s energy facilities.
As a result, Russia that winter refrained from the type of large-scale attacks it had conducted on Ukraine’s power infrastructure in 2022-23, according to two Ukrainian officials and a person in Washington with knowledge of the situation.
That agreement was meant to pave the way towards a formal deal, the people said.
However, Kyiv restarted drone attacks on Russia’s oil facilities in February and March this year, as it sought to increase pressure on Moscow after its failed 2023 counteroffensive.
Ukraine did not honor the 'truce' agreement that was in place during the 2023/24 winter. It blew up the August 2024 agreement mediated by Qatar by attacking Russia's Kursk region. The negotiations in October went nowhere as Ukraine insisted to continue its (already failing) Kursk campaign.
At the beginning of this year Ukraine stopped all gas transit from Russia to Slovakia and Austria. Russia countered by striking Ukrainian gas production facilities which it had previously left unharmed (machine translation):
Ukraine lost 40% of its gas production after Russian missile strikes. This is reported by Reuters with reference to sources.
Because of this, Kiev plans to import up to 800 million cubic meters of gas from Europe in February and March.
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After a full-scale invasion in 2022 Russia has already launched numerous missile and drone attacks on Ukraine's electricity sector, but in recent weeks it has stepped up attacks on gas fields.
As Ukraine has already broken several 'truce' agreements about attacks on infrastructure it is doubtful that Russia will agree to another one.
While Zelenski, with his tweet is trying to make nice with Trump he fails to issue an apology for his behavior in the Oval Office. To him this was only 'regrettable':
Our meeting in Washington, at the White House on Friday, did not go the way it was supposed to be. It is regrettable that it happened this way. It is time to make things right. We would like future cooperation and communication to be constructive.
Zelenski agrees to the 'mineral deal' but inserts language that implies the agreement is a step towards 'security guarantees' which Trump had rejected explicitly:
Regarding the agreement on minerals and security, Ukraine is ready to sign it in any time and in any convenient format. We see this agreement as a step toward greater security and solid security guarantees, and I truly hope it will work effectively.
The White House is likely to reject Zelenski's attempt to make nice with Trump. It will want to 'cook' him a bit longer.
If only to demonstrate to Europeans and other recalcitrant figures that any resistance to Trump is futile.
Starmer’s Summit Gives Birth To A Mouse – It’s Stillborn.
A mountain was in labour, uttering immense groans,
and on earth there was very great expectation.
But it gave birth to a mouse. This has been written for you,
who, though you threaten great things, accomplish nothing."
Sundays meeting of selected European leaders in London reminded me of the above Aesop fable.
Prime Minister Starmer's summit, called for in haste, has achieved nothing:
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer rallied his European counterparts Sunday to shore up their borders and throw their full weight behind Ukraine as he announced outlines of a plan to end Russia’s war.
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Starmer said he had worked with France and Ukraine on a plan to end the war and that the group of leaders — mostly from Europe — had agreed on four things.
The steps toward peace would:
- keep aid flowing to Kyiv and maintain economic pressure on Russia to strengthen Ukraine’s hand;
- make sure Ukraine is at the bargaining table and any peace deal must ensure its sovereignty and security; and
- continue to arm Ukraine to deter future invasion.
- Finally, Starmer said they would develop a “coalition of the willing” to defend Ukraine and guarantee the peace.
“Not every nation will feel able to contribute but that can’t mean that we sit back,” he said. “Instead, those willing will intensify planning now with real urgency. The U.K. is prepared to back this with boots on the ground and planes in the air, together with others.”
It is far from certain whether Russian President Vladimir Putin will accept any such plan, which Starmer said would require strong U.S. backing. He did not specify what that meant, though he told the BBC before the summit that there were “intense discussions” to get a security guarantee from the U.S.
“If there is to be a deal, if there is to be a stopping of the fighting, then that agreement has to be defended, because the worst of all outcomes is that there is a temporary pause and then Putin comes again,” Starmer said.
Starmer said he will later bring a more formal plan to the U.S. and work with Trump.
That mouse the mountain gave birth to is stillborn:
Cont. reading: Starmer’s Summit Gives Birth To A Mouse – It’s Stillborn.
Palestine Open Thread 2025-043
News & views related to the war in Palestine …
Ukraine Open Thread 2025-042
News & views related to the war in Ukraine …
The MoA Week In Review – OT 2025-041
Last week's posts on Moon of Alabama:
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Other issues:
Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review – OT 2025-041
The Oval Office Shouting Match – Wrap-Up
The first 40 or so minutes of yesterday's oval office press talk (vid) went quite normal. Questions were asked and replies were given in general form, addressing the public. There was some mild banter. But then a breakdown (vid) occurred:
It was all destroyed when JD Vance, the US vice-president entered the conversation to declare: “The path to peace and the path to prosperity is maybe engaging in diplomacy.
“We tried the pathway of Joe Biden of thumping our chest and pretending the Potus’s words counted more than Potus’s actions,” he declared.
To anyone who has spent time in or around the Ukraine war, such airy talk of “diplomacy” – as if it means anything without hard force to back it up – is exasperatingly naive.
Mr Zelensky should probably have let it slide. But he was not taking it.
“Can I ask you?” he asked, leaning towards Mr Vance.
“Sure,” replied Mr Vance.
…
“What kind of diplomacy, JD, are you speaking about? What do you mean?”
It was a mistake.
There followed a barrage of invective about Ukrainian ungratefulness – in front of the world’s media.
For anyone who remembers how the whole Ukraine conflict was initiated by the U.S., the hypocrisy played out here is overwhelming.
How can one, as Trump and Vance do, lament that the war has destroyed Ukraine and led to countless people dying for no good cause and, at the same time, demand that Ukraine be thankful for all the 'advice', weapons and money the U.S. has given in first place to drag Ukraine into a war and to wage it.
But Zelenski wasn't upset about U.S. hypocrisy. He was upset that he was told to make peace.
The bad mood he was in had already festered for some time. In late 2023 Simon Shuster had portrait Zelenski for Time:
Cont. reading: The Oval Office Shouting Match – Wrap-Up
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