On February 28 2022, five days after the operation to disarm Ukraine had started, I offered a prediction where it might lead to:
The U.S. and its proxies in the EU and elsewhere have put up very harsh sanctions on Russia to damage its economy.
The final intent of this economic war is regime change in Russia.
The likely consequence will be regime change in many other countries.
…
All energy consumption in the U.S. and EU will now come at a premium price. This will push the EU and the U.S. into a recession. As Russia will increase the prices for exports of goods in which it has market power – gas, oil, wheat, potassium, titanium, aluminum, palladium, neon etc – the rise in inflation all around the world will become significant.
…
The shunning of economic relations with Russia and China means that Germany and its newbie chancellor Olaf Scholz have fallen for the U.S. scheme of creating a new Cold War. Germany's economy will now become one of its victims.On February 4 Russia and China declared a multipolar world in which they are two partnering poles that will counter the American one. Russia's move into the Ukraine is a demonstration of that.
…
The Europeans should have acknowledged that instead of helping the U.S. to keep up its self-image of a unipolar power.It will take some time for the new economic realities to settle in. They will likely change the current view of Europe's real strategic interests.
Trump's re-election was the most important regime change caused by the war in Ukraine. On Sunday there will be elections in Germany. Following three years of a shrinking German economy they will lead to another regime change. Many are still to follow.
What I could not predict at that time was that Trump's punishment of Europe would become an accelerator of the process.
Mark Ames @MarkAmesExiled – 15:30 UTC · Feb 18, 2025
The entire US/European media & political establishment are telling themselves (and us, repeatedly) that Trump "is being played by Putin" re: Ukraine. Because they cannot let themselves contemplate the other possibility: that Team Trump is deliberately punishing Ukraine & Europe.
I am not sure who is still claiming that Trump is 'being played by Putin'. Hasn't that play finished? But I am sure about the 'deliberately punishing' part.
Why would Trump want to punish Ukraine and Europe? Because they helped the Democrats and the Deep State to sabotage his first presidency.
Scott Ritter's wide ranging piece on the Munich Security Conference does well in explaining this:
[Trump's] victory in the 2016 presidential election sent a shockwave through the establishment, which spent the next four years undermining the Trump Revolution from within and without.
And the next four years, under the auspices of its poster child, Joe Biden, the establishment used every tool in the establishment bag of dirty tricks, (including politically motivated prosecutions on multiple fronts and, possibly, assassination), to prevent a Trump resurrection.
…
In Munich we see the classic adaptation of the OODA-loop by Trump to destroy his NATO and EU enemies.Now, at this juncture, some might ask, “Wait a minute. How did NATO and the EU become the enemy of Donald Trump?”
The answer is quite clear — because they are an extension of the very establishment elites Trump has declared war on in America today.
These are the European elites who conspired against Trump during his first term, who pined for former President Barack Obama while delaying enacting Trump-mandated reforms in the hope that the American electoral cycle would purge Trump from the American political stage.
These are the people and institutions that doubled down on American warmongering, allowing themselves to sucked into a Ukraine trap that was designed to destroy Russia for America’s exclusive benefit, destroying Europe in the process.
The Europeans, ever the compliant minions, were too blinded by their willingness to serve to see that they were as much the sacrificial lambs as was Ukraine.
And, when it looked as if Trump was going to emerge victorious, it was the Europeans — in NATO and the EU — who conspired with the Biden administration to “Trump proof” policies in hopes that they could, once again, simply ride out four years of Trumpism while the U.S. establishment contained and undermined Trump from within.
But Trump had learned his lesson.
The revolution began on Day One by destroying the [U.S.] establishment Europe was counting on to contain Trump.
…
And then Trump turned his attention to Europe.Keep in mind that in the world of Donald Trump, the Europeans — especially their twin institutions, NATO and the EU — are not allies, but enemies.
Here is what Patrick Armstrong (Welcome back, Pat!) is chipping in:
What have we learned? Well, something that Moscow learned a long time ago: Washington is not reliable (the complicated Russia word is недоговороспособны which essentially means that you can’t make an agreement with it and even if you do, it won’t keep it). In a word, Washington caused the Ukraine disaster and, now that it’s gone irredeemably bad, is walking away from it and leaving it to Europe.
…
In the simplest, bluntest and most brutal terms the fact that has just hit it in the face is that USA is over there and Russia is here. The USA can make a mess anywhere and walk away at any time; remember Vietnam? Afghanistan? Well now it’s you.So Europe, there’re four things you’d better do immediately: 1) figure out what your real interests are; 2) get yourself into a position to defend them; 3) make your peace with Moscow. (A European master of realpolitik told you years ago “The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia“.) And fourth, read and meditate on the joint Russia-Chinese statement of three years ago. Why? Because that’s the future.
The joint Russia-Chinese statement Patrick mentions is the same one I had pointed to three years ago.
Seeing Europe's dilemma China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi is keeping that door open. In his MSC statement he offered to help:
With a five-percent GDP growth last year, China contributed to nearly 30 percent of the world economic growth. It has served as an important engine for global economic growth, and shared with the world the benefit of its supersized market. China is willing to synergize high-quality Belt and Road cooperation with the European Union’s Global Gateway strategy, so as to empower each other and empower the entire world.
Friends,
China has always seen in Europe an important pole in the multipolar world. The two sides are partners, not rivals. This year marks the 50th anniversary of China-EU diplomatic relations. Taking this opportunity, China is willing to work with the European side to deepen strategic communication and mutually beneficial cooperation, and steer the world to a bright future of peace, security, prosperity and progress.
As Trump will continue his war against Europe's bureaucracy it may only take a few months until we will see regime change in Brussels.
It could be the start of the long delayed move of Europe towards China.