Over the last month the war in Ukraine has become less intense.
The number of daily losses on the Ukrainian side, as provided by the Russia Ministry of Defense, has decreased from an average 2,200 per day in early November 2024 to an average of 1,600 per day in late January 2025.
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Ukraine has acknowledged that the level of violence has decreased (edited machine translation):
Over the past seven days, the number of assault operations of the Russian army on the entire front line has been significantly reduced.
This is evidenced by the data of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, according to the military telegram channel Deep State.
Just yesterday, 80 attacks by Russians were recorded, while at the peak in December, this figure had reached 292.
Deep State provided statistics on Russian attacks by month (daily average):
- November – 5,205 (174);
- December – 6,247 (202);
- January – 5,087 (164);
- 4 days of February – 381 (95)
The reasons for the decrease are unknown. It may well be weather related as a relatively warm winter has caused a prolonged muddy season which makes assaults over open land more difficult.
Another reason might be ongoing negotiations.
Ukrainian ATMCMS attacks on Russia seem to have stopped for now as have Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. (This observation may be deceiving though as such attacks usually appear in bursts.)
Yesterday the Russian side confirmed for the first time that diplomatic contacts with the U.S. have intensified:
"There are indeed contacts between individual departments, and they have intensified recently. But I can't tell you any other details, there is nothing else to say," Peskov told reporters, according to Russian state-owned media.
Next week General Kelloggs, Trump's Ukraine envoy, is supposed to announce further plans for peace talks over Ukraine. I do not expect any real change of U.S. strategy. Russia will have to win the war on the battle field.
Meanwhile: Europe’s Ukraine Delusion continues.
And a lecture in political history (recommended!):
Glenn Diesen and his book The Ukraine War and the Eurasian World Order in a Book Club discussion with Jeffrey Sachs (video).