How many days to mud season?

Posted by: paddy | Feb 6 2025 14:23 utc | 1

Superb b),

Indeed, I have watched the lecture in political history 3 times it is that good.

Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Feb 6 2025 14:24 utc | 2

Posted by: paddy | Feb 6 2025 14:23 utc | 1

The weather has been terrible for drone warfare. Why we see some small oppertunist Ukrainian counter attacks.

Russia has been concentrating on way behind the front lines supply lines. Using Kinzhal missile strikes. Getting ready for when the weather clears to keep pushing forward.

Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Feb 6 2025 14:28 utc | 3

Trump has made Pootin an offer He cannot refuse.

Posted by: Surferket | Feb 6 2025 14:28 utc | 4

You guys heard, eh, Putin says no probs I'll sit and negotiate with Bog Roll Boy.....chalk that one up, the Chaunster called it.....no assassinations any time soon.

As for intensity, it's all over but the whining.....sorry no cheese. Who in their right fucking mind wants their Red Badge of Courage the day before a ceasefire? Huh?

Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Feb 6 2025 14:32 utc | 5

The interesting discussion may relate to what is the dividing line when USAID type activity crosses the line into interference with the Yalta-Potsdam arcitecture. The Trump administration appears committed and has an incentive to limit regime destabilizing activity (notwithstanding Gaza) and neocons, Democrats and in general big government types, all benfitting from USAID largesse, do not want that. Even Fox news is pointing out the connection between USAID and regime change. A treaty the enshrine whatever that line can be, blessed by treaty aprticipants (RF) is an outside of the box solution. Yes, 2/3 of the Senate must approve, but who wants to appear to be in bed with a uclear war desiring, illigitimate strongman who is on the take? Assuming a treaty doent pass immediately, then there is the law route which may coincde with the deconstruction of USAID. According to Doctorow, the Kremlin is pretty focused on the USAID tpoic.

Posted by: frithguild | Feb 6 2025 14:35 utc | 6

Klitschko was called out by a junior member of the city council for operating a brothel in the middle of the city.

Apparently it was registered under his brother's name.

Russians have no use for Ukrainians who are not culturally Russian.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 6 2025 14:39 utc | 7

Yes, it’s been sometime since those numbers, even more than area, became evident.

You mentioned negotiations, and I have been mentioning a dozen year truce for weeks, but on the other hand also recently mentioned it could be a communication that RF would not be forced to a quick timeframe and associated risks of a trap.

The kremlin knows which , we’ll see when we are told or signs confirm which.

In a way looks like RF is giving time for AFU to re-order, why? Even some line straightening and pimple-popping are strangely slow.

Posted by: Newbie | Feb 6 2025 14:40 utc | 8

What the figures don’t record is the number of casualties away from the lines of direct contact. The Iskander strike in Sumy has reportedly caused over 130 losses but, as far as I’m aware, the Russian Defence Ministry never account for these attacks on rear positions in the daily reports.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 6 2025 14:46 utc | 9

https://x.com/MyLordBebo/status/1887485869105291283

Klitschko stuff with video.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 6 2025 14:47 utc | 10

What the figures don’t record is the number of casualties away from the lines of direct contact. The Iskander strike in Sumy has reportedly caused over 130 losses but, as far as I’m aware, the Russian Defence Ministry never account for these attacks on rear positions in the daily reports.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 6 2025 14:46 utc | 9

They don’t even count casualties within destroyed vehicles.

Posted by: Newbie | Feb 6 2025 14:54 utc | 11

You guys heard, eh, Putin says no probs I'll sit and negotiate with Bog Roll Boy.....chalk that one up, the Chaunster called it.....no assassinations any time soon.

As for intensity, it's all over but the whining.....sorry no cheese. Who in their right fucking mind wants their Red Badge of Courage the day before a ceasefire? Huh?

Cheers M

Posted by: sean the garden gnome | Feb 6 2025 14:32 utc | 5

Bullshit as usual, you haven't heard shit, neither you read relevant statements from both Russian MoD and Kremlin about the negotiations and Putin's conditions for them.

Posted by: 5thcolumn | Feb 6 2025 14:57 utc | 12

[email protected] heard the Russian conditions for talks, Zman can attend, why, what did you hear? Someone here once said Russia could end the SMO in seven days ....I laughed out fucking loud....I think they were scratching their Hazelnuts.

Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Feb 6 2025 15:03 utc | 13

At least trump had kellogg state the obvious

""The chance of them getting their nuclear weapons back is somewhere between slim and none," he said. "Let's be honest about it, we both know that's not going to happen.""

https://tass.com/world/1909523

Posted by: Newbie | Feb 6 2025 15:07 utc | 14

To me it looks like in many places the front line (LOC) has just dissolved and movements are more like an organic contamination, a rot spreading. Pores and sprouts of the RF appearing and disappearing here and there. Small units have mutated to even smaller still, depending on improvised logistics and supplies.
The game is now like Conway's Game of Life.

Posted by: Catilina | Feb 6 2025 15:10 utc | 15

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-soldier-rams-truck-into-putin-s-prized-su-25-fighter-jet-report/ar-AA1ywmap?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=03296b7464b14ffee1268230cc1bff2b&ei=12

Shit. And double shit. And most Americans believe it. Truly sad...

Posted by: DakotaRog | Feb 6 2025 15:12 utc | 16

'Diplomatic contacts with the US have intensified.' Starting from a baseline of near zero, ANY contact is an improvement. No evidence so far of talks at a higher level. It's the mud. Why risk an offensive if tanks get stuck and are sitting ducks. Russians took Velika Novoselka and stopped to let troops R&R. Some action to close the Kurakhovo pocket but nothing major. Shaping operations around Kupyansk. Russians can firm up their logistics. Ukrainians can do the same, but they still don't have the resources to plug all the weak points along the line. When conditions allow, the push will resume. Russians have no intent of backing off until at a minimum 4 oblasts are taken and Nazis are pushed out of Kursk.

Posted by: Mike R | Feb 6 2025 15:13 utc | 17

Couldn't it be that there are fewer casualties because there are fewer soldiers?

The same trench line that used to have 30 soldiers might now only have 20.

Et voila', everything is explained...

Posted by: PallottolaVagante | Feb 6 2025 15:13 utc | 18

Meanwhile: Europe’s Ukraine Delusion continues....
.
RT
"Utopian assurance to defeat Russia" - serious accusations against Brussels from Bulgaria.
.
Representatives of European countries urged Kiev to attack and falsely claimed that Russia would collapse, according to Bulgaria's President Rumen Radev. He also doubts the effectiveness of sanctions and questions whether the EU will play any role in negotiations at all, given massive miscalculations.
.
Bulgarian President Rumen Radev has accused EU leaders of pursuing an unrealistic policy in connection with the Ukraine conflict. Speaking on Wednesday at a forum on competitiveness in Sofia, the head of state criticized Brussels' inability to tackle pressing problems such as high energy prices.

Diplomatic defeat - Ukraine loses on all fronts
Radev's comments echo those of other EU leaders who questioned the EU's determination to support Kyiv "for as long as necessary" while Brussels simultaneously neglects diplomatic engagement with Moscow.

"Why, instead of building solid defense lines to protect its potential and territory, Ukraine was encouraged by many leaders to launch a counteroffensive with the utopian assurance of defeating Russia?" Radev asked, referring to Kyiv's unsuccessful counteroffensive in the summer of 2023.

He also questioned the portrayal of the effectiveness of sanctions against Russia: "Why have we been repeatedly told that the collapse of the Russian economy is only a matter of months?" In reality, Radev said, NATO estimates that Moscow produces three times more ammunition than the entire EU.

The president warned that the EU risks being excluded from a negotiated solution to the Ukraine conflict by the US and Russia, despite having a vital interest in influencing the outcome. Radev urged swift diplomatic action to secure a "visible seat" at the negotiating table, adding that it would be difficult to reach an agreement given Moscow's current superiority on the battlefield.

Kursk region: Ukrainian military uses recruits as decoys
Radev urged a review of EU policy to find a new balance between economic growth, self-defence and diplomatic action. He is skeptical of the demand that member states should increase defence spending to 5 per cent of GDP, claiming that some countries would struggle to achieve a 1 per cent increase. There is a legitimate concern that EU countries could be forced to "sacrifice the welfare state in favour of rearming the continent," the president warned.

Radev is very popular in Bulgaria and is currently serving his second consecutive five-year term, despite his limited powers as president. His critical stance towards the EU is similar to that of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico.

Posted by: berthold | Feb 6 2025 15:19 utc | 19

Posted by: PallottolaVagante | Feb 6 2025 15:13 utc | 18

###########

Next you will suggest using pencils in outer space!!!

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 6 2025 15:20 utc | 20

sean the leprechaun | Feb 6 2025 14:32 utc | 5

"You guys heard, eh, Putin says no probs I'll sit and negotiate with Bog Roll Boy.....
As for intensity, it's all over but the whining.....sorry no cheese. Who in their right fucking mind wants their Red Badge of Courage the day before a ceasefire?"

I especially liked how Putin made a special point of saying that the Germans of today are wonderful people and that it's completely wrong to compare them with the Nazis.

(Which is the exact opposite of the truth. Today's Germans, just like all of Western Europe, are vastly more pro-war, and more specifically Russophobic, than the Germans of 1939. But Putin's very anxious to let bygones be bygones and extend the olive branch to his Western globalist "partners", as he still keeps calling them, that he misses so much.)

Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Feb 6 2025 15:22 utc | 21

Mike R | Feb 6 2025 15:13 utc | 17

"'Diplomatic contacts with the US have intensified.' Starting from a baseline of near zero, ANY contact is an improvement."

How is contact with those who are non-agreement capable an improvement? Why didn't the Allies in 1944-5 seek such contact with the Hitler regime or think such contact would be an improvement?

Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Feb 6 2025 15:25 utc | 22

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 6 2025 14:47 utc | 10

Looks like the old Nuland/Samantha Powers/USAID/Blinken/Biden darlings of Ukraine have no more protection politically or from corruption they are doing. Trump admin is throwing the old blood to the wolves.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 6 2025 15:31 utc | 23

Whatever the reason for the reduction in hostilities - Russia will negotiate from a position of strength - if, and when it gets to the point of discussions - on what Russia keeps (terrain wise) - and what Ukraine loses (terrain wise).

One thing that we know, that should be a no brainer - is that the Donbas will not be returned to Ukraine - no matter how the discussions go - and with the English government underwriting Ukrainian debt - to which amount I don't know, in order for access to important minerals in the Donbas, which now won't happen - one wonders what concession from Russia the West will ask for via its puppet Zelensky.

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Feb 6 2025 15:32 utc | 24

Representatives of European countries urged Kiev to attack and falsely claimed that Russia would collapse, according to Bulgaria's President Rumen Radev. He also doubts the effectiveness of sanctions and questions whether the EU will play any role in negotiations at all, given massive miscalculations. ***

Posted by: berthold | Feb 6 2025 15:19 utc | 19

Narrative sacrilege more than 2 weeks ago. Now without the USAID possee to enforce orthodoxy Radev and others in his position will "talk their book" diffetently, especially as larger issues are discussed and coalitions are built.

Posted by: frithguild | Feb 6 2025 15:38 utc | 25

Zelensky is no longer under White House control. He is more likely under British control.

That said, the British are forcing the AFU to hold on to even a few square kilometers of Kursk oblast, anticipating negotiations. They think they can use their holdings in Kursk as a leverage.

However, if the hypothetical negotiations don't start within next 6 months, they won't be able to use it as a bargaining chip. By that time, even the city of Zaporozhye might not be on the table anymore. Then there are no more discussion about territory, there is only discussion about NATO in Europe.

I see the EU states are attempting to fulfill Trump's 5% NATO target. Even Trump didn't believe they would be stupid enough to do it, but doing it is in fact the economic suicide of those states, so regardless, the road leads to a weak Nato or dissolution of EU and Nato.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 6 2025 15:39 utc | 26

Flying [email protected] feel the MOD pulled the rug from under Mr Putin. I don't envy him, the job he has to do. But the RF MOD is and was as corrupt as the Ukraine's or the US's. I won't quote Butler, but leaving Oil facilities untouched for three years, major facilities at that, not going after the command and control centres, as they often ran that trope around the LOCC, the "bridges", then the attrition cope for being stuck on the LOCC.....and every day as Russia burns here and there, Russians are still dying by the bucket load, not truck load like Ukie, but still dying none the less.

Cheers M

.....can you imagine the bowel spasms here when Vald faces Vald at Big Don's Peace Conference......I hear, moist, very moist chocolate cake is on the menu......

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Feb 6 2025 15:42 utc | 27

If so, Russia would be focused on honing the front lines to something defensible, pulling back even in pockets.

It's also understandable that Trump might have waited to purge some intelligence elements before proceeding.

Posted by: Scottindallas | Feb 6 2025 15:55 utc | 28

PallottolaVagante | Feb 6 2025 15:13 utc | 18--

Yes, quite--thinner lines yield fewer casualties. The advances past the Oskol River in Kharkov oblast North of Kupyansk are impressive. Toretsk and Chasov Yar urban areas are almost completely Russian with little combat aside from mopping up operations and likely rotations of troops. The next urban area to be invested is Pokrovsk. It should be noted that beyond these urban areas the road net almost vanishes with only a few major arterials and very few secondary roads to advance along and move supplies. So, while the overall intensity of combat has abated, IMO it's temporary and will resume when the Russians return to advancing beyond their newly liberated urban areas. IMO, the potential for negotiations has no affect on the SMO's political goals and related plans by Russia's General Staff. Ryabkov's recent statement is worth sharing:

"The first step towards normalizing bilateral relations, meaning negotiations based on the principles of mutual respect and equality, should be taken by the United States. We are open to dialogue, ready to negotiate in a tough bargaining mode, taking into account the realities "on the ground" and our national interests , predetermined by history and geography. So the decisions and choice are up to Trump and his team." [My Emphasis]

IMO, the bolded text is a big problem since the Outlaw US Empire treats no nation in such a manner and Kellogg is a Hardline Cold Warrior. And now that Genocide Don has shown his real colors, I don't see any reason for Russia to be eager to engage in useless negotiations. And another issue is the certain brawl over who follows Zelensky and comprises a new Rada, which the Outlaw US Empire will need to produce before anything meaningful can be discussed.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 6 2025 16:09 utc | 29

TRUMP IS WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THERE IS A GLOBAL DEFICIT IN LEADERSHIP

Russia and China have made a point of not wanting to challenge the US in terms of global hegemony.
Instead, they opted to wait for the US to succumb to emerging geopolitical realities that would have the US downsize voluntarily. In the process, a global leadership vacuum emerged.
Trump has broken with expectations regarding the downward spiral of American power, and instead is moving to fill this vacuum forcefully.
There is a method to his madness.
This doesn’t make it right. But it does create the opportunity for the US to once again flex its muscles in a world where countervailing potential has largely atrophied.

The question is who, if anyone, will push back on the global stage?

BRICS is not mature enough.

America’s allies are too beholden and besotted to mount any viable pushback.

Which leaves Russia and China, neither of which are prepared to act decisively on the global stage.

This creates maneuver room for audacious and outrageous policy initiatives, of which Gaza is but the most recent incarnation.

@ScottRitter

https://t.me/ScottRitter/3652

I am trying to understand what Scott means by lack of leadership on the world stage since Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin have both displayed more leadership on the international sphere than the anemic Washington did during the last decade, including Trump's firdt term in office.

I guess Scott has in mind the kind of leadership they promote in military academies which happens to be also the kind of leadership within the US business community. Showing simple and clear objectives, motivating the troops, looking bold and decisive on trivial matters, expecting "esptit de corps" and absolute loyalty, punishing to show examples, make sure there is no dissonance.

This is the kind of leadership that has lead the US to where it is right now. The US "leadership" has been destructive both at home and abroad. The US has shown leadership in feeding both the Ukrainian and the Palestinian conflicts. Now, as the US has lost in both conflicts, it should again take the leadership role in the region?

The "lack of leadership" Scott is talking about is rather an euphemism as they often use in the US military to say that neither Russia nor China can commit troops to the Middle-East. Scott apparently believes that short of a direct military intervention by Russia on the ground in the Middle-East, chaos will prevail and I agree with him. However any chaos there is is ultimately the effect of US policy. So Scott essentially argues that the arsonist is the best choice to extinguish the fire. It might be the only option left at this point to end the loss of lives.

The context is that Russia has left Syria and there is almost zero chance that the governments of Turkyie, Egypt, Saudi Arabia etc will ever act in unison.

Scott says that he works as a trained analyst, just looking at the facts. The facts, as I see them, show that as soon as countries become successful at developing their economies, the US comes in wifh its hardware and money doing everything it can to hurt them. This is exactly what Trump is setting up to do. That is the theme of MAGA as I now understand it. So I don't like Scott's position supporting US "leadership".

Posted by: Ricchard L | Feb 6 2025 16:10 utc | 30

Regarding fewer casualties - as lines get thinner, the units shift into smaller sizes. Large scale operations turn into smaller scale operations, and the battleground get smaller and more localized.

There have been reports where AFU is now relying only on FPV drones in some sectors (that is, there is no more coherent front in existence except in certain key areas).

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 6 2025 16:18 utc | 31

Sorry, this ended up in the Ukraine forum while I tought I was in the Palestine one!

Posted by: Ricchard L | Feb 6 2025 16:18 utc | 32

Speaking about EU's Banderistan Delusions, I step on a load of that thing this morning (with the left foot).
The article is in french , but who didn't have an auto-translation module ?
I'll just translate the title : "Why am I persuaded Russia will loose this year."

https://desk-russie.eu/2025/01/27/je-suis-persuade-que-la-russie-perdra-cette-annee.html

Copium : not even once. Just say no !

Posted by: Savonarole | Feb 6 2025 16:19 utc | 33

Are you sure that Russia's attacks have decreased, or are they just not being reported as much as we were used to?
And why is it no longer being made public, out of consideration for Trump's dreams or the world in which he lives when it comes to Russian successes and losses??
Excerpt: 06.01.2.25
Night attacks on the Ukrainian military infrastructure

On the night of February 6, 2025, Russian troops launched a combined attack on airfields, launch sites for unmanned aerial vehicles, naval guard firing ranges and important railway infrastructure of the Ukrainian armed forces. Western-made equipment was destroyed, including mobile drone launch pads, communications and command systems and the BG-28 boat, which was used for patrols on the Danube and sabotage attempts in the Black Sea.

Gusarovka, Kharkiv region (20:00, 05.02.2025)
Two Iskander-M missiles hit the launch bases of the drone units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which performed the tasks of the operational reconnaissance and strike complex.

Results of the attack:
- Three mobile UAV launchers were destroyed, including one converted to transport Boeing Insitu ScanEagle drones (USA).
- The UAV control station, equipped with a Harris RF-7800W (USA) communication system, which provided data transmission and control of the drones, was disabled. - The explosions destroyed an ammunition depot, which contained, among other things, aviation ammunition for the Switchblade 600 kamikaze drones and components for the RQ-20 Puma attack drones (USA). - Personnel: at least 7 confirmed dead, including drone operators and electronic warfare specialists. Uman, Cherkasy region (01:50, 06.02.2025) As a result of a drone attack, the airfield of the 110th Aviation Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which was one of the reserve bases of tactical aviation, was hit. Results of the attack: - The command and control center of the airfield, which included equipment of Western production, including a Vaisala MW41 weather station (Finland) and flight navigation systems Thales TopSky (France), was completely destroyed. — Spare radar modules were disabled, including the Indra Lanza-N 3D mobile complex (Spain), used to control tactical air operations. — A maintenance hangar, where repair work was carried out on the fuselages of the F-16 fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine, was destroyed. Danube estuary (03:35, 06.02.2025)

Attack drones struck fortified positions of the tactical unit of the naval guard of the State Border Service of Ukraine , which ensured control over the water space and cover of sea routes for arms deliveries from Romania.

Results of the attack:
- The patrol boat “BG-28” was destroyed . On board was a group of five soldiers tasked with monitoring the water area. The boat was seriously damaged and sank.
— A maritime surveillance radar station , presumably a Furuno FAR-3000 (Japan) , responsible for coordinating the actions of the maritime guard, was disabled . — Personnel: 1 missing and 2 wounded confirmed as a result of the attack on ground positions . This area was used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces to organize sabotage attacks from the sea and control the flight of Russian drones over the Danube. — Railway infrastructure in Kharkiv: The destruction of important railway junctions damaged facilities used to transport military goods and equipment of Western production. — Kharkov (01:00, 06.02.2025) – Three contact lines of railway tracks in the area of ​​Uspenovsky Lane were damaged. Three overhead line network supports were destroyed, which led to a power outage at the railway junction and a complete stop in traffic on the section. The explosion damaged the relay cabinet of the switch control, which made restoration work difficult. — Kharkov – As a result of the air defense shooting, debris from the drone fell on the territory of the Barabashov market. A fire broke out in the warehouse pavilions, and the shopping arcades were damaged by the blast wave. @don_partizan
.Addendum:
I think that's a lot of attacks...
by the way, it's less than 5 km to the border of Donets to the west...so Donets would theoretically be liberated.

Posted by: berthold | Feb 6 2025 16:20 utc | 34

If you know the history of this war going back to 1991, you know that the Kremlin had to be dragged kicking and screaming into doing anything at all, but even then there are very still very powerful people there who want to surrender, to this day.

Which is why the war was never fought seriously and Putin has been begging to be allowed to surrender for years now.

Now that moment is approaching finally.

Can't have the oligarchs separated from their dear Courchevel and megayachts for too long after all, that would be an apocalyptic calamity.

Russia is a country that has been run in the interests of that tiny elite since the last years of the USSR, and until that changes, the Kremlin will never truly defend Russian national interests. And the whole multipolarity BS is just a delusion for gullible fools.

Some of us have been trying to explain this for quite some time, but we get called trolls for bursting the "alternative media" bubble in the West.

It is very telling who the Kremlin went after internally and externally. Did it go after the billionaire and liberal traitors who sold out the country? No. There were literally Russian oligarchs giving millions to the AFU, those were never jailed for treason. Did the Kremlin go after the Ukrainian elites who are responsible for the atrocities against and the deaths of so many Russians? No, those are still untouchable.

But who was targeted? Those who criticized the Kremlin's conduct from a patriotic position. Strelkov was jailed long term, Gubarev, Kvachkov and others for just a little bit, as a lesson.

What does that tells us about true loyalties and priorities?

Also, did e.g. The Duran ever tried to interview someone like Gubarev? He would have told them the truth about the oligarchy, how it rules and how it sabotaged the war since 2014 (the story of why Mariupol ended destroyed thanks to Rinat Akhmetov picking up the phone and telling Putin to order the DNR forces to halt their advance after the AFU had fled the city and it was there for the taking back in 2014 is particularly instructive). But maybe that would have hurt the clicks and ad revenue machine, wouldn't it? The people who generate that revenue don't want to hear that Putin is an errand boy even for Ukrainian, let alone Russian oligarchs, do they?

John Helmer is the only one who has seriously touched upon the real situation, but he has to watch what he says because he is located in Moscow, so it is not safe for him to speak openly against the Kremlin.

Karaganov has broken the nuclear taboo conversation, but he will never seriously criticize the oligarchic model, because he is on the inside and has to protect that position.

That exhausts the very short list of people who the "alternative media" in the West has given a platform to say a bit of the truth.

The likes of Glazyev will on occasions say it as it is but mostly without mentioning names, again because it is not safe to do so, and they have not been heard of in the English-speaking media almost at all.

Posted by: ANON2022 | Feb 6 2025 16:24 utc | 35

they now the freeze is in the works. Putin preparing his final gesture of goodwill

Posted by: abel | Feb 6 2025 16:25 utc | 36

Ricchard L | Feb 6 2025 16:10 utc | 30--

As Ritter's confessed, he's an American and wants America to succeed, which makes his position conflated and can be seen as a pushme-pullyou. That said, he ought to be against Trump's continuing the policy of shredding International Law, which also means shredding the US Constitution. As for pushback, China's been very sophisticated in its choices since it understands the sanctions and tariffs have a greater negative effect on the Empire than on China. The geoeconomic reality is China doesn't need the US market--yes, it's nice but not necessary. Russia's situation is similar. Indeed, most of Eurasia's situation is that way. The US Empire's in decline and there's nothing Trump can do to reverse that trend, but that reality seems to be beyond the ability of some/many to see.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 6 2025 16:25 utc | 37

sean the leprechaun | Feb 6 2025 15:42 utc | 27

"I feel the MOD pulled the rug from under Mr Putin."

It seems like most other commentators (for example Simplicius or John Helmer) have thought the other way around. I've long pictured it being like Operation Rolling Thunder, where like LBJ before, Putin was dictating which targets to hit and which were off limits, all according to political rather than military criteria. That's certainly why they didn't put the light and heat out permanently in 2022.

I read Putin also was anxious to give the AFU a three week breathing space in order to let them regroup, under the pretext of a "Christmas truce", but that the generals said No.

Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Feb 6 2025 16:28 utc | 38

Whatever the reason for the reduction in hostilities - Russia will negotiate from a position of strength

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Feb 6 2025 15:32 utc | 24

What position of strength?

Look at the situation objectively.

After the USSR fell the US was free to bomb and invade whoever it wanted. And a common theme between all those operations was that the targets never fought back. They were bombed to bits, some subjected to ground invasion, but nobody ever fired anything back.

What is the Russian situation right now?

-- Is the US/NATO bombing it? Yes, it is, and have been for some 18 months now, but it has really ramped up in the last six months. Reaching more than a thousand kilometers deep into the Russian rear, missiles, drones, etc.

-- Was Russia invaded? Yes, that happened too.

-- Is Russia fighting back? No it isn't.

Well, what is the difference then between Russia and e.g. Syria?

There is no difference. It will just take longer, but if that continues indefinitely, the final outcome is the same.

Note that Syria had some quite serious deterrent weapons once upon a time. Between Putin forcing to give some of them away and the rest never being used, it didn't matter. The use-it-or-lose-it principle remains king.

Posted by: ANON2022 | Feb 6 2025 16:30 utc | 39

How geostrategists from Russia and the USA assess the dangers of the new year.

At the beginning of the year, think tanks like to publish their forecasts for the coming year. It is interesting to see how the forecasts and priorities of experts from the USA and Russia differ.

.
by Anti-Spiegel
February 6, 2025 12:00 p.m.

In my opinion, Andrei Shitov is one of the best USA experts in Russia. He was a correspondent in the USA for four decades and is well connected there and knows the Washington apparatus from the inside. That is why I have already translated many of his analyses that he writes for the Russian news agency TASS.

Excerpt:

Peace or global conflict: What risks does the year 2025 hold?

Andrei Zhitov on how analysts in Moscow and New York assess Donald Trump's new odyssey and a return to the "law of the jungle"

Difficulties are expected this year, primarily from America and for America. This is what experts in risk assessment in global politics, both domestically and abroad, warn of. All in all, in their opinion, the year promises to be turbulent. But how could it be otherwise in a year that began with the return of the nationalist, populist and voluntarist Republican Donald Trump to power in the USA?

In my assessments of the expected global risks, I usually rely on the assessments of the "Eurasians" from the banks of the Moscow and Hudson Rivers: the consulting agency of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO) of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, Eurasian Strategies, headed by Andrei Suzhentsov, and the Eurasia Group, a New York company with the same profile, founded and headed by Ian Bremmer.

This year's report of our analysts is titled "International Threats 2025. Change of Archetype?", and the cover image shows a plot from the story of the Trojan War: Odysseus next to the Trojan Horse, a painting on an ancient Greek vase.

The image, in my opinion, is apt: we remember how many kinds of tricks, cunning and deception were present in the stories about Odysseus. Probably, in order to protect themselves from tricks, this time our authors preferred not to publish their text, and Suschentsov simply explained the essence to me in words. As I understood it, the researchers see a likely change of archetype in the expected transition of the US under Trump from an implacable confrontation with Russia (archetypes of "overcoming" and "retaliation") to a strategy of searching and choosing options (archetype of "search", like Odysseus). At the same time, they warn in advance that success is not guaranteed and that everything can return to "overcoming", that is, to tough confrontation.

"Law of the jungle"
The New Yorkers, who work mainly for the business world in the USA and the collective West, have printed their report as usual. Let's start with it, especially since the very first lines, one could say, sound the alarm. "We are moving back to the law of the jungle," write Bremmer and his people. "To a world in which the strongest do what they can and the weakest are condemned to endure what they must endure. And the former - be they states, companies or individuals - cannot believe that they are acting in the interests of those who are in power in their country. This is not a sustainable path.”

The phrase about the strongest and the weakest is a quote from the ancient Greek (an unexpected echo of our report) “History of the Peloponnesian War” by Thucydides, who is considered the founder not only of history but also of political science. Despite its age, however, it immediately reminded me of a relatively recent confession by former US President Bill Clinton about his scandalous affair with the young White House intern Monica Lewinsky: “I did it because I could.” That is, he could afford it; he believed he could get away with it.

Here you have, in my unprofessional opinion, the most stable and unchanging historical archetype, and that without any Aesop language. For me, these six words sum up the essence of US politics as I have experienced it in my life. There is and never has been any morality there. And how sustainable and rational this approach is (which is exactly what the term "sustainable" implies) is an open question, but I think it is more rhetorical. Like Clinton, no one usually thinks about it; everyone just looks at how they can get more. Don't we see that in what Trump has done since the first days of his new presidency?
.
Geopolitics “set to zero”
But back to the report. As always, it describes and comments on the ten biggest risks to normal life on the planet this year, as the Eurasia Group sees it. First and foremost is “the victory of G-Zero”. G-Zero is Bremmer’s favorite concept, which he outlined in his 2012 book Every Nation for Itself; at its core, it is about a “global leadership deficit” that is now, according to the US analyst, “becoming critically dangerous”.

“The central problem of the global order is that the basic international institutions – the UN Security Council, the IMF, the World Bank and so on – no longer reflect the fundamental balance of power in the world. This is a geopolitical recession,” argue the authors of the report. They estimate that “in 2025… the risk of a global generational crisis and even a new global war is higher than at any other time in our lifetime”. I would of course like to emphasize the last words.

I think it is clear from what has been said that Hudson's analysts do not believe in Trump's global leadership. Judging by the data they cite, Americans as a whole are not particularly prepared for it either. Last summer, in a survey conducted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, almost half of respondents (49 percent), including most Republicans (57 percent) and independent voters (54 percent), agreed that the United States has enough problems at home and should interfere less in the affairs of the outside world due to limited resources.

And as for domestic leadership, the second risk factor in the report is specifically titled "The Don's Reign." It highlights that Trump is now much stronger and more experienced politically than he was in his first term, that he has a much stronger foothold in the electorate, in his party, and in all three branches of government. Accordingly, he will now crack down on undesirables and expand his own powers in every possible way; under him, "an even greater shift in the balance of power in favor of the executive and to the detriment of the legislative" is likely.

For this reason, I call Trump a voluntarist. Americans generally stigmatize this style of leadership - in others, not in themselves - as authoritarianism. While they do not expect their new administration to pose a threat to democracy as such, despite fearing that in their last report a year ago, they are under no illusions about their system: the "Oligarchs and Workers" section begins with an eloquent admission that this system is "two-tiered," with "different standards" for the "haves and the have-nots." I remember that in Soviet times, we were told exactly that about class inequality.

Russia is "rogue"
The most important section for us - "Russia is still rogue" - comes in fifth place. It states: "Despite a likely ceasefire in Ukraine, Moscow will continue to undermine... the US-led global order this year." And further: "Russia will take hostile asymmetric steps against EU countries - especially those on the front lines - as they continue to support anti-Russian policies. It will also maintain its leadership role in the Axis of Rogues, the strategic military partnership with Iran and North Korea, which could significantly disrupt global stability this year."

Of course, these theses raise their own questions. What kind of disruption of the US-led global order can one speak of if American analysts themselves do not see such an order in the world? And if Moscow, as they themselves say, is simply reacting to the irreconcilably hostile foreign policy, is this not normal?

When I pointed this out to Bremmer, he agreed with me, albeit with one reservation: yes, for Russia this is normal, but NATO sees it completely differently. On the first question, he wrote that the "zeroed" order in the world arose primarily because of Russia. And he added that now "many are playing from the defensive, trying to save what they can from the existing multilateral architecture (including the preservation of a strong and united Europe)," but "Russia's interests are a risk factor for these efforts."

But Moscow has repeatedly stressed at the highest level that it does not intend to jeopardize these interests, including the highest of them - national sovereignty. And that, to quote Thucydides, we will have the strength to determine our own destiny.

Joint source
The Eurasia Group cites third SThe top global risk factors are the "uncontrolled decoupling" between the US and China, i.e. in the "most important geopolitical relationship in the world"; fourth, "Trumponomics," including the US tariff war against other countries, including allies and partners. The New Yorkers predicted in advance that reality would exceed expectations.

In sixth place is the "highly dangerous" Middle East due to the "weakest Iran in decades." And then: "accelerated geoeconomic fragmentation," mainly due to the aforementioned decoupling of the US and China; the "unbridled" development of artificial intelligence; the preservation of "almost ungoverned and forgotten spaces" in the world - from Gaza, Syria and Libya to Sudan, the DR Congo and Haiti (incidentally, this category also includes the new Russian territories in the former east of Ukraine). The list closes with "the dispute [between the US] and Mexico."

Whatever way you look at it, most of the risk factors are directly or indirectly linked to Washington. And that's without analyzing Trump's interventions in Canada, Greenland and Panama in more detail.

No preconditions for a major war
As mentioned above, Moscow's Eurasians are keeping quieter this year. When asked how great they currently assess the threat of a "major war", Suschentsov replied that they "do not expect this threat to intensify this year for several reasons."

First of all, he pointed out that Trump is not as reckless as he sometimes appears to the outside world and that he has never done anything that would have endangered "the physical security of the United States" - and also his personal security and that of his family. For example, he has been bankrupt several times, but not personally, only professionally. And he himself has publicly called for people not to exaggerate their own willingness to take risks.

Therefore, the interlocutor is sure that the American president "has absolutely no intention of escalating the confrontation with Russia over the Ukrainian issue now, this year." "There is no ideological and emotional fuse for this, there is no means that could be used immediately to escalate the situation," the political scientist said.

"The situation in the Middle East, where Israel has considered attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities as one of the scenarios, is dangerous," the interlocutor continued. In his opinion, this "cannot be ruled out" to date, but nevertheless "after the agreement with Hamas, Israel seems to have put its ambitions on hold." Otherwise, he believes, Tel Aviv would not have agreed to the US military sending Patriot anti-missile missiles from Israel to Poland for transfer to Ukraine, but would have preferred to keep them in its own arsenal.

Better not to hesitate

Posted by: berthold | Feb 6 2025 16:30 utc | 40

Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Feb 6 2025 16:28 utc | 38

That is correct.

In the Kremlin they are mostly traitors.

In the MoD the are quite a few of those too. The General Staff and especially the GRU and the strategic forces are what will save the country, if it is in fact saved. But that will require them to act at some point against the Kremlin, which is fraught with all kinds of risks.

Posted by: ANON2022 | Feb 6 2025 16:33 utc | 41

Not sure how great the data is. But just accepting that both sides show a reduction in combat deaths, seems consistent with RFA taking less territory also.

Oh...but how does this affect the muh attrition cope?

Oh...and how far is it to Odessa?

Posted by: Anonymous | Feb 6 2025 16:37 utc | 42

Posted by: ANON2022 | Feb 6 2025 16:33 utc | 41

Are you starting another one of your 24hr round-the-clock post-a-thons? They do get tedious.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 6 2025 16:39 utc | 43

Sure seems like we are lurching to an armistice. And mostly at the current line of contact.

Keep Odessa dreaming...for a little longer.

Stand by for another Minsk agreement. Russia has a lot of interests outside of Ukraine and is sick of wasting money and lives there. They will cut bait.

Posted by: Anonymous | Feb 6 2025 16:40 utc | 44

Posted by: Anonymous | Feb 6 2025 16:40 utc | 45

Funny how after usaid stopped, vargas from franconia and other resident concern trolls are now gone, yet you and sb2022 with the garden gnome are still here. You are either doing it for free or are paid by butthurt belters like Poland. All in all, you got big clown shoes to fill now that vargas is gone. Being a dimwit broken record can get you only this far.

Posted by: 5thcolumn | Feb 6 2025 16:51 utc | 45

meaning negotiations based on the principles of mutual respect and equality

and Kellogg is a Hardline Cold Warrior.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 6 2025 16:09 utc | 29

Maybe not a bad thing, he's 80, in the old cold war there was a much better notion that the ussr was not to be trivially prodded.

And trump is no spring chicken either, kellogg probably says "if we had done a fraction of this mess in the 80's I'd be shitting my pants and waiting ww3 any day" and trump replies "I know..."

Cold war had very strict rules to avoid going hot.

There was a measure of respect implied.

Posted by: Newbie | Feb 6 2025 16:54 utc | 46

Both @ANON2022 and @Anonymous (heck I’ll include the garden gnome as well) are far too simplistic in their so-called “analyses”. A lot of dynamics are in play, some of which are quite well hidden, with only hints surfacing.

For one example, take the increased rumblings about elections in Ukraine; think about the implications, think about all the different factions and players involved. Think about exactly how an election campaign is actually going to work without degenerating into low-level civil conflict. Then think about how that works to Russia’s advantage.

Or take the utterly decaying Ukraine economy; inflation forecast to hit 14%; how is that sustainable if external funding is restricted/stopped?

But no, you won’t really think, will you? You’ll just keep repeating the same old stale memes, parroting Western ‘think-tank’ talking points, displaying no ability to learn or absorb new information and outlooks. Sad, really, a waste of an ability to make potentially intelligent contributions, but it’s your loss.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 6 2025 16:56 utc | 47

I have been tracking the Russian army data consistently for a long time, and adding in the undercounting (losses away from the front not recorded etc.), the Ukrainian army losses peaked at around 90,000 a month for a few months around the third quarter, after escalating to 60,000 a month earlier in the year. Previously Ukrainian losses had been about 30,000 a month.

The sheer scale of the previous Ukrainian losses will have thinned out the front line, plus added a lot less committed to fight to the death press-ganged conscripts with little or no training. Also, the AWOL problems seems to have escalated in recent months - including from units being trained in EU countries. Given that temperatures have been above zero previously in January, and the current highs hover near the zero level, the ground will also be muddy under any equipment; helped by quite a few sunny days. The full blast of the mud season has yet to hit and usually lasts for about a month. There does seem to be more activity north of Kupyansk where its colder and there are less Ukrainian forces, with Russia building a sizeable bridgehead over the Oskol.

So Ukrainian losses have dropped back to a level of 60,000 / month, which is still well above the 30,000 / month at the start of 2024; the Russians are inflicting Ukrainian casualties at a rate of 720,000 per year. Given the above, we should not read too much into this. As soon as the ground starts to dry out in April, Russia could easily start some very major offensives, with their troops currently diligently clearing away the remaining fortifications that would get in the way. Better for Russia to display its full strength during negotiations than reduce activity, they learnt that the hard way when they retreated from Kiev during the early 2022 negotiations. Always negotiate from strength.

Posted by: Roger Boyd | Feb 6 2025 17:03 utc | 48

Posted by: Ricchard L | Feb 6 2025 16:10 utc | 30

#######

While Scott is well-travelled, he cannot imagine a world with America at the front.

Patriotism is often mentally, emotionally, and morally debilitating.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 6 2025 17:03 utc | 49

Without America at the front ...

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 6 2025 17:04 utc | 50

"Ukraine has acknowledged that the level of violence has decreased"

You know Marat has noted over the last several months that the Russians had been increasingly encountering no or light resistance in many locations. He mentioned more than once Ukie territory taken after the remaining Ukie soldiers just fled disorganized and without much fight.

Could this be contributing to the reduction in monthly losses? They say Russia has reduced its attacks, but could that be a euphemism for the fact that, in some cases the Russians do not have to mount a massive attack to take territory?

I sincerely hope Russia is not slowing down the conquest just to placate the waffling ass idiots of US Imperialism. They will be ignorant and aggressive until they get a brick in the face. The proper course would be to increase territory acquisition in the run up to talks, especially with the clowns of Imperialism on the other side of the table.

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Feb 6 2025 17:10 utc | 51

Kellog announces an audit of US funding to Ukraine to take place in the US and Ukraine. That and the leak of Trump’s alleged peace plan which Z will surely reject are clearly setting it up to jettison Z as a bad actor and impediment to peace. If he isn’t careful, he is going to end up taking the fall for the entire war and end up in the dock somewhere or with a bullet behind the ear. He should quit today and go to one of his houses in Miami, the South of France, or Israel.

Posted by: CullenBaker | Feb 6 2025 17:14 utc | 52

Berthold@1620 Feb6

Thank you for the highly informative posting. Makes sense. With Ukraine's General Mud slowing up the advances at the front' the R.U. forces are decomposing the Ukrainian logistics and interior defense situation. All concern trolls should pay attention to your posting. Not likely to happen, though, as most of them are plants.

Posted by: aristodemos | Feb 6 2025 17:19 utc | 53

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 6 2025 14:39 utc | 7
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 6 2025 14:47 utc | 10

Klitschko is something of a thorn in the side of the Zelensky junta. He’s at loggerheads with the Kiev District Military Administration; he’s also been standing against a corruption scandal (what else is there, in Ukraine?) swirling around construction development at the Kiev Botanical Gardens.

There’s an interview with him here (needs a translation app or browser add-on): https://regionews.ua/ukr/articles/1738845523-dmitro-bilotserkovets-nayblizhchiy-soratnik-mera-kieva-vitaliya-klichka-pro-konflikt-z-op-ta-maybutni-vibori

I think he will be one of the disruptive factions in any Ukrainian election scenario.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 6 2025 17:20 utc | 54

Most USAID goes to Ukraine

https://www.intellinews.com/most-of-usaid-aid-goes-to-ukraine-365187/?source=ukraine

Posted by: JAB | Feb 6 2025 17:25 utc | 55

The decreasing number of Ukrainian soldiers might also play a role - less troops to defend, less troops to die, couple to a possible more realistic assessment of "Not a step back" Zelensky policy, and therefore less needless pointless deaths.
Whatever, this is a good sign - less people being sacrificed on either side for US profits.

Posted by: Clueless Joe | Feb 6 2025 17:28 utc | 56

Roger Boyd@1703 Feb6

Here in the Northwoods of Minnesota, temperatures overnight in a few days time will drop considerably colder than -20lF. Could it be that weather "modification" initiatives on the part of the U$ AirFARCE are adjusting in the opposite direction in the Donbass region?

This war is existential for the R.U. Perhaps the ruling financiers feel that they are also in such a situation. The central bankster cabal is looking at a looming debt crisis of no known equivalent. Could be they are becoming very nervous and are using all their devices to use a midwinter thaw to freeze the conflict.

Posted by: aristodemos | Feb 6 2025 17:28 utc | 57

Ukraine still attempting offenses in Kursk. Their forces must be large for them to make these attacks.

Official statement of the Russian Ministry of Defense on the attempted advance of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region:

- The enemy attempted a counteroffensive in the direction of Ulanki and Cherkasskaya Konopelka;
- All attacks were repelled;
- The settlements are under the control of the Russian Armed Forces;
- The Ukrainian Armed Forces deployed up to two mechanized brigades;
- The enemy lost at least six tanks and 14 combat armored vehicles.

@voenkorKotenok

Posted by: MiniMO | Feb 6 2025 17:32 utc | 58

Tass reports:
It is too early to talk about the prospects for negotiations on Ukraine. At the moment, Washington's position is unclear and there are no concrete measures.
Bloomberg reports that Keith Kellogg is expected to present Trump's plan to end the Ukraine conflict at the Munich conference, which will take place on February 14-16.
Kellogg said he would not present a peace plan to resolve the Ukraine conflict next week, saying that this is the president's prerogative.

Posted by: berthold | Feb 6 2025 17:34 utc | 59

I sincerely hope Russia is not slowing down the conquest just to placate the waffling ass idiots of US Imperialism. They will be ignorant and aggressive until they get a brick in the face. The proper course would be to increase territory acquisition in the run up to talks, especially with the clowns of Imperialism on the other side of the table.

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Feb 6 2025 17:10 utc | 51

My thoughts exactly Ahenobarbus. I just don't understand after everything that has been thrown at Russia including the terrorist attacks within Russia. Why they need to sign anything right now.

Finally after getting the US and NATO on the back foot for the first time in decades why would you retreat ?

Everything East of the river and Odessa then sign. Should be a minimum.

Remembering that what they sign will be toilet paper in a few hundred days time. That's what I think most would call a position of strength. As you don't really want to hold Western Ukraine.

Then when the establishment figure fills Trumps suit in a few hundred days time. You have created a very strong buffer zone between yourself and the West. Control the sea.

Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Feb 6 2025 17:53 utc | 60

Flying [email protected] a politician is directing a war, any war, one deserves what one gets....

Cheers M

.... especially if they have zero military experience....KP Duty doesn't count....

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Feb 6 2025 17:55 utc | 61

@Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Feb 6 2025 17:10 utc | 51

Exactly, less Azov committed types who stand and die and many more press-ganged conscripts who run and live. If Dima's latest is to be believed, Dachne and the central part of Andriivka just fell which means the Dachne pocket is in the process of collapse. Also, Ukraine attempted some counter-attacks around Pokrovsk that were repulsed with losses.

@Posted by: aristodemos | Feb 6 2025 17:28 utc | 57

The reduction in the stability of the Arctic climate zone stability, as temperatures rise much faster in the Arctic than in the regions bordering the Arctic, has been well researched and documented by climate scientists. The lower the temperature gradient the less stable the separation of climate zones. That means that the cold air mass escapes south more often, and warm air invades the Arctic more often. That is exactly what is happening this winter, as the Polar Vortex moves south over North America (bringing colder weather) and north over the Arctic (bringing much warmer weather). Right now, Arctic Sea Ice Area is at an all time low because of the intrusion of warmer weather.

The science involved, done a year ago when we had an El Nino. Moving to a La Nina increases the likelihood of such events.

How does climate change affect the polar vortex?

@Posted by: berthold | Feb 6 2025 17:34 utc | 59

The Trump plan is delusional, an absolute non-starter with the Russians.

Posted by: Roger Boyd | Feb 6 2025 18:00 utc | 62

) Get a free prize box on - https://shorter.me/k8kxX

Posted by: Millenta | Feb 6 2025 18:04 utc | 63

46 - I suspect that is true. A scary aspect of the current situation is that we might walk into full-scale WW3 out of sheer arrogance, at the behest of figures a good deal dumber than those directing policy during the Cold War.

Posted by: Waldorf | Feb 6 2025 18:06 utc | 64

For me -

Everything East of the river and Odessa then sign is signing from a position of strength and all the sacrifices have been worthwhile. You have just about achieved everything you wanted to achieve. You've Created a strong buffer zone defence for the future.

Anything less is signing from a position of weakness. Creates a "What was it all for scenario." Just encourages the bastards to keep trying.

Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Feb 6 2025 18:07 utc | 65

Jeremy [email protected]?
Surely you jest. Talk about living in a bubble, where have elections ever mattered, and whom might wear the crown at any given time.....not that that or any election ever mattered, you've heard of Sir Smedley of Butler?

And yes Ukraine's economy is utterly destroyed......hmm, how'd that happen again, oh, yeah, blowed to bits.....I read Russia as trying to do a Yankeestan, not attacking or totally destroying Ukraine but selectively like the WW2 Yanks did to Germany, they didn't touch German industry that was owned or heavily vested in Yankee hands.

Someone on another thread actually posited as how German after total defeat in WW2, blowed to bits, became the industrial powerhouse of Europe.....that's how it's done folks....

Cheers M

......pass the hazelnuts, I'm of the popcorn, heard it's GMO.....

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Feb 6 2025 18:14 utc | 66

18 - My impression is that most of the fighting is done by relatively small units, not least because bigger ones are more vulnerable to detection and then attack by drones.

Posted by: Waldorf | Feb 6 2025 18:16 utc | 67

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Feb 6 2025 18:14 utc | 66

Complain to Colonel Cornflake about elections, he’s the one who’s fortified the election vitamins.

Enjoy your Crunchy Nuts...

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 6 2025 18:20 utc | 68

I read more and more reports about TCC being ambushed or blasted by IED , yesterday there was even a suicide bombing in a TCC center reported : things are going awry !

Posted by: Savonarole | Feb 6 2025 18:25 utc | 69

It’s hilarious that Ukrainian units are fleeing the field and the Ukraine partisans immediately declare victory.

Posted by: a stone | Feb 6 2025 18:27 utc | 70

90 days @ 1600/day =66.667/hrs 150000. Plus maybe another 150000 wounded. Looks like the end game.

Posted by: John k | Feb 6 2025 18:28 utc | 71

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Feb 6 2025 15:03 utc | 13

It's unfortunate you have so little to offer other than bluster. You're like a microcosm of the UK press, down to the maturity and erudition.

I see today's little ukrops 'look at me daddy' Kursk sortie went exactly as one would expect.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Feb 6 2025 18:31 utc | 72

The CIPSO liars are back, running on fumes.

Sacrificing another few hundred soldiers and a few dozen armoured vehicles for a tactical gain in an operationally doomed front is now considered a sign of strength.

"Look at what AFU can do! They're strong!", propagandists sacream, pointing at the twitching corpse.

Always a good sign when you spot certain nicknames pull their heads out of the shit creek they have to shovel.

Posted by: boneless | Feb 6 2025 18:34 utc | 73

Z-Team sent 300 troops and 50 vehicles to a new attack to expand the southern perimeter of Sudzha, anticipating negotiations which may or may not materialize in the coming weeks and retaining a 'bargaining chip'. Around 25 - 50% of those have been destroyed in a few days.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 6 2025 18:40 utc | 74

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 6 2025 18:40 utc | 74

There shouldn't be any bargaining chips. If it is the Oblasts Putin stated as minimum a few months back.

Those were the minimum back then regardless who holds parts of Kursk right now. Kursk doesn't even come into it. As Russia will eventually push them out.

Now should definitely be everything East of the river and Odessa not just the Oblasts stated a few months back.

There is absolutely nothing NATO or the US can do about it. Russia needs to drive home the massive advantage they have and push the bastards out.

Bargaining chips is a false narrative and framing created by the West because they have been utterly defeated.

Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Feb 6 2025 18:51 utc | 75

@ 5thcolumn | Feb 6 2025 16:51 utc | 45

“guest from franconia” posted just yesterday, and vargas’s latest disappearance occurred before Trump went after USAID. I attribute vargas’s disappearance to the increasing amount of bad (for 404) news that his divine Dima has been compelled by circumstance to report. As you’ve noted, shadowbanned is back, and now MiniMo as well, and of course the leper-con never left. Julian is just about all that’s missing.

Guess these guys weren’t worth USAID largesse after all.

Posted by: malenkov | Feb 6 2025 18:52 utc | 76

Everything East of the river and Odessa then sign is signing from a position of strength and all the sacrifices have been worthwhile. You have just about achieved everything you wanted to achieve. You've Created a strong buffer zone defence for the future.

Anything less is signing from a position of weakness. Creates a "What was it all for scenario." Just encourages the bastards to keep trying.

Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Feb 6 2025 18:07 utc | 65

The general idea is correct, but note that in order to take Odessa and then protect it, you also need to have Kiev and a 100-200 km buffer to the west of it...

Posted by: ANON2022 | Feb 6 2025 18:56 utc | 77

"I sincerely hope Russia is not slowing down the conquest just to placate the waffling ass idiots of US Imperialism...."
@Ahenobarbus | Feb 6 2025 17:10 utc | 51

I understand your impatience. But there are as they say unknown unknowns. Priorities to consider.
Like e.g. how it will go with the transport ships when the west increases its blockades and sanctions.
At every such zone of confrontation risk for serious escalation emerges. And the western leaders are examples of irrational actors. Their advisors may be informed about game theory where a weaker actor sometimes has better odds when behaving irrationally.
I am quite sure that the west is running such strategy simulations.
The irrational decision makers in EU may have deduced that escalation in Europe is worth the risk.
Russia probably thinks they do and is the only grown up in this context.

Posted by: petergrfstrm | Feb 6 2025 18:56 utc | 78

Posted by: CullenBaker | Feb 6 2025 17:14 utc | 52

He should quit today and go to one of his houses in Miami, the South of France, or Israel.

It's a very difficult decision, when and where to run.

If he can replace the lost USAID and other US money with EU money then he can survive inside the Ukraines in his current post for some more time as long as the Russians keep the slow tempo.

If he doesn't replace American money with EU money then he is no use for anyone but where to run to be safer? Having no use for any party, he'll surely be terminated by the Americans or by the Russians.

Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Feb 6 2025 18:57 utc | 79

Mud season, troop rotation, are both better alternative explanations for a (temporarily) reduced pace of operations.

Men can't fight non-stop and need rest. Trump is all talk and doesn't have the time for serious negotiations ... he is too busy making ethnic cleansing great again, focusing on the W. Hemisphere, and fighting the swamp.

Time is on Russia's side. Meanwhile here's joke for you:

Q:What does Ukraine's GDP and trolls' shlongs have in common?

A: They're both getting smaller every day!

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Feb 6 2025 18:58 utc | 80

"Next week General Kelloggs, Trump's Ukraine envoy, is supposed to announce further plans for peace talks over Ukraine. "

Well, be prepared for any changes to his plan to not be the last.

By the time this war ends, 'General Kelloggs' will be a cereal negotiator..

Posted by: Rubiconned | Feb 6 2025 19:01 utc | 81

The CIPSO liars are back, running on fumes.

Well, they certainly aren’t running on funds any more! We can safely describe the remaining dregs as “charity cases”...

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 6 2025 19:07 utc | 82

Z-Team sent 300 troops and 50 vehicles to a new attack to expand the southern perimeter of Sudzha, anticipating negotiations which may or may not materialize in the coming weeks and retaining a 'bargaining chip'. Around 25 - 50% of those have been destroyed in a few days.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 6 2025 18:40 utc | 74

Yeah, and clearly there is no shortage of them, because they are also holding the line everywhere else quite well in the same time.

It's vicious fights around Pokrovsk, that have slowed down to Bakhmut-level crawl, the Zaporozhye front has frozen completely, the stretch between Liman and Chasov Year is dead too, there is some progress along the Oskol river, but again, very, very slow. The Kharkov incursion was a complete fiasco and is now being rolled back by the AFU, Sudzha has not been cleared for six full months.

If that is winning, I don't want to imagine what losing will look like...

Posted by: ANON2022 | Feb 6 2025 19:09 utc | 83

The general idea is correct, but note that in order to take Odessa and then protect it, you also need to have Kiev and a 100-200 km buffer to the west of it...

Posted by: ANON2022 | Feb 6 2025 18:56 utc | 77

I wouldn't worry about Kiev. As Jeremy stated above Kiev will eat itself and collapse and Russia will easily be able infiltrate it anyway. If they take everything East of the River and Odessa and what is around it to link up with Transistria.

I really don't know what the answer is, but I am certain you have to completely ignore Trump.

I am pretty sure the best option is look ahead beyond a few hundred days and try and guess what America looks like with the establishment being back in charge. Who can reverse everything Trump does.

Then once the Russians have decided at the highest level what America looks like in a few hundred days time. That points the way how much of Ukraine you have to take right now today.

For me, looking ahead to an America without Trump. I would definitely take everything East of the river and Odessa right now today. As an insurance policy against the future. Link up with transnistria.

Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Feb 6 2025 19:16 utc | 84

Next meeting in Ramstein format will be held for first time not under US leadership – media

The next meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (the Ramstein format) will be held for the first time not under the representation of the United States of America. The United Kingdom will chair the meeting.

The British publication The Times reported this, citing sources.

The publication's interlocutors said that the 26th meeting in the Ramstein format, scheduled for February 12, will be held under the representation of British Defense Minister John Healey.

According to them, Washington turned to London with a corresponding request the day before.

The publication writes that the U.S. refusal to chair may be due to the fact that the administration of President Donald Trump has not yet decided on its position on Ukraine and the fate of military aid.

At the same time, one of The Times' interlocutors said that the U.S. refusal to take the lead at the Ramstein format meeting may be temporary, as the new U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth needs time to get used to it.

He added that Hegseth will be present at the contact group meeting on February 12.

As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, on January 8, 2025, Polish Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz suggested that the 25th Ramstein format meeting could be the last due to uncertainty over the fate of U.S. military assistance to Ukraine.

So, are negotiations between Trump and Putin really on the cards? Or will the whole sorry mess be dumped (Drumped???) in Europe’s lap?

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 6 2025 19:21 utc | 85

Well, what do you know. British losers planned the latest failed offensive as well. With friends like these..?

Appears that another Kursk counter attack has failed to achieve its minimum objectives.
Reports from Russian sources talk only of abandoned/burning equipment. I don’t get the purpose of these attacks and waste of crucial resources. Obviously the Ramstein
meeting is fast approaching and the Ukrainians (but mostly the British) wanted something to present.

With the Brits at the wheel expect the battlefield disasters to increase and the pointless operations to continue. Watch the ZNPP.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 6 2025 19:26 utc | 86

berthold | Feb 6 2025 16:20 utc | 34

Yes indeed, in all official data published, not twitter rumors, there were attacks on infrastructure. It's all in the official news.
And in Kursk and Kursk-related areas the dead count must be a lot more for Ukr, missiles and bombs are not in the list. Even today they tried again with a few tanks and failed. It's so dumb I suspect someone in Nato wants to kill them faster than the smo does, they could reach 70k-100k soon. And for what?
Another proof that there is not less smo and there are no talks with Trump/Nato, outside his own fantasy, is the ratification of a nuclear retaliation in case Belarus is attacked. Oreshink deplyment in multiple bases in Belarus hasn't stopped either ( tass.com/pressreview/1909325 )

Posted by: rk | Feb 6 2025 19:46 utc | 87

As of 21:00 on February 6, 2025, units of the North group of forces have thwarted an attempt by the Ukrainian Armed Forces to conduct a counteroffensive in the direction of the settlements of Cherkasskaya Konopelka and Ulanok in the Kursk region.

All attacks have been repelled.
In this direction, since the morning of February 6, the Ukrainian Armed Forces, with forces of up to two mechanized battalions on infantry fighting vehicles and armored combat vehicles, supported by tanks and obstacle clearance vehicles, have launched eight waves of attacks.

Servicemen of the 11th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade, the 810th Separate Marine Brigade, the Veterans and ArBat volunteer formations, as well as UAV operators from the Rubicon Advanced Unmanned Technologies Center, the 40th Separate Marine Brigade and the 177th Separate Marine Regiment, with the support of aviation and artillery, stopped and routed the Ukrainian assault units.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost over 200 people and about 50 units of weapons and military equipment, including: eight tanks, five infantry fighting vehicles, an armored personnel carrier and 30 armored combat vehicles, as well as three engineering vehicles, a bridge layer and other equipment.

Units of the North group of forces are clearing areas where scattered enemy groups remain.

Posted by: MiniMO | Feb 6 2025 19:50 utc | 88

Most USAID goes to Ukraine

https://www.intellinews.com/most-of-usaid-aid-goes-to-ukraine-365187/?source=ukraine

Posted by: JAB | Feb 6 2025 17:25 utc | 55

I'd worry if I was jordan

-----------------

- The Ukrainian Armed Forces deployed up to two mechanized brigades;
- The enemy lost at least six tanks and 14 combat armored vehicles.

@voenkorKotenok

Posted by: MiniMO | Feb 6 2025 17:32 utc | 58

I'd say they just had 500+ casualties there today

When they do a full assault, not sparing tanks, it's 100 casualties per tank lost.

-------------

46 - I suspect that is true. A scary aspect of the current situation is that we might walk into full-scale WW3 out of sheer arrogance, at the behest of figures a good deal dumber than those directing policy during the Cold War.

Posted by: Waldorf | Feb 6 2025 18:06 utc | 64

Kellogg's old, maybe he's wise enough not to.

-----------

Z-Team sent 300 troops and 50 vehicles to a new attack to expand the southern perimeter of Sudzha, anticipating negotiations which may or may not materialize in the coming weeks and retaining a 'bargaining chip'. Around 25 - 50% of those have been destroyed in a few days.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 6 2025 18:40 utc | 74

trying to recover before being cut-off from the roads to sumy? Sounds like too little too late

Posted by: Newbie | Feb 6 2025 19:52 utc | 89

Well, what is the difference then between Russia and e.g. Syria?

There is no difference. It will just take longer, but if that continues indefinitely, the final outcome is the same.

Posted by: ANON2022 | Feb 6 2025 16:30 utc | 39

Yes, they both mainly just react to what western-backed armies/militants do. Syria needed to be more proactive about destroying and purging its enemies, but was merely content to hold some of Syria. Russia is content with a mostly frozen conflict where it is just holding the line in most places or creeping very slowly, so slowly that it will take years longer to clear the Donbas. Meanwhile the west is arming Ukraine for more attacks against Russia.

Posted by: MiniMO | Feb 6 2025 19:56 utc | 90

Russia cannot push forward towards the west strongly, quickly or decisively, she cannot completely destroy the military of the Drug Addict of Kiev, the Russian advance is held back by Putin (against the wishes of the siloviki) for one and one only reason: if the Ukrainian forces were to collapse, NATO, read the Americans, will have to step in, the American companies (say) Monsanto and others have invested too much in the purchases of land and natural resources, in advancing loans that must be repaid, Putin must not snatch all that from them.

Posted by: Baron | Feb 6 2025 19:56 utc | 91

remy [email protected]?
Surely you jest. Talk about living in a bubble, where have elections ever mattered , and whom might wear the crown at any given time...

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Feb 6 2025 18:14 utc | 66

##################

I think Trump is proof that (to quote Obama), "elections have consequences".

Just ask anyone who worked at Politico or any trannies that were in the US military a month ago.

You're right that elections don't control high-level decision making but they do affect the economy and society.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 6 2025 20:03 utc | 92

"Putin must not snatch all that from them."

There's a long way from Donbas to Kiev and NATO is already involved and supplying Ukraine with weapons to hit deeper and deeper into Russian territory.
Russia needs to stop the deliveries by destroying or controlling the supply routes.

Posted by: MiniMO | Feb 6 2025 20:04 utc | 93

Well, what is the difference then between Russia and e.g. Syria?

There is no difference. It will just take longer, but if that continues indefinitely, the final outcome is the same.

Posted by: ANON2022 | Feb 6 2025 16:30 utc | 39

#############

I know replying to a known troll account is of little value, but it does provide me with a platform to express a perspective that is generally lacking at the bar.

Syria could not have gone better for the Axis. That is why (IMO) Russia and Iran signed off on Turkiye taking it over.

Creates stress on NATO, Israel, and America.

Some Israeli pundits are talking about the necessity to bomb Turkiye's nuclear power plant before they can develop nukes from the waste material.

It's funny to me how scared the Zionists are of nuclear attack.

Russia has redeployed most of its Syrian resources to Africa (Libya and Mali) which further undermines the West.

Meanwhile, the deal with Iran provides Russia with friendly ports in the region within striking distance of the Mediterranean.

Syria was a poisoned chalice and the Axis gifted it to the Empire.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 6 2025 20:18 utc | 94

@Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 6 2025 20:18 utc | 94

Syria was a poisoned chalice and the Axis gifted it to the Empire.

Exactly how I see it, Assad would not help himself (or stop his family stealing from his people) and was far too naive about his new Arab "friends". An absolutely rational move that provides a new quagmire for the West. Same issue with Palestine, a horrible situation but Russia and China need to keep well away from. The US and West are doing their best there to destroy their own reputations and soft power.

The religious-supremacist ethnic cleansing and genocidal state of Israel will end up picking a fight with Turkey, I think that Trump may be doing all the theatrics to let Israel down from the fact that the US will not support it in a new war with either Iran or Turkey. The Zionist pigs will have to restrain themselves to bombing, murdering, imprisoning and torturing Palestinians in the West Bank instead.

Posted by: Roger Boyd | Feb 6 2025 20:28 utc | 95

Who knew that narrative maintenance was such an expensive hobby?

Oksana Romaniuk: 90% of Ukrainian media survived thanks to grants

Nearly 90% of Ukrainian media survived thanks to grants. This is a consequence of the advertising market in Ukraine dropping in the first year of Russia's full-scale invasion, by 92% in the online media sector in particular.

Oksana Romaniuk, director of the Institute of Mass Information (IMI), said this on Hromadske Radio while discussing the outcomes of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) suspending funding for all programs and projects for 90 days.

“And it (the advertising market. – Ed.) has not recovered. Especially in regional media. While national media got advertisers and started earning money – and they cannot cover 100% of their needs with that – we learned that in regional media advertising revenues now range from 3 to 10%. It is simply impossible to survive on such amounts,” noted Oksana Romaniuk.

She named the key risks of funding suspension: the weakening of democracy and democratic institutions in Ukraine.

“Because the media make the government accountable to society. The media ensure control over the government. They do not just inform citizens. They make all these stories, all these developments, transparent. And if there is no proper support for the media, they cannot fulfill their main function. What happens then? Corruption flourishes. Abuses of power, restrictions on human rights, etc. grow,” noted the IMI director.

Oksana Romaniuk also mentioned the risk of the media space being monopolized. She said that before the full-scale invasion in Ukraine, the media space used to be controlled by oligarchs.

“We had five big oligarchs, and all that is gone. Now, when the media are weakened, someone may want to take advantage of the situation to seize the media space, start controlling it and thus turn the media into a tool for some kind of influence. Well, I hope that this will not happen,” the IMI director clarified.

According to her information, 80%, and perhaps more, of Ukrainian media worked with USAID.

“The problem is that almost everyone had grants. The question is that for some, these grants amounted to 100% of their income and they could only survive thanks to grants. These grants amounted to 40–60% for some, less for others,” Oksana Romaniuk said.

She added that the grants were not only from the USA, but also from the EU and the UN.

“And even though American grants were probably key in the market and the US invested the most not only in the Ukrainian economy, but also in the Ukrainian media field, we still have European institutions, and I hope that they will now demonstrate leadership and come up with proposals for the Ukrainian media and the state. To support and protect us from what could happen,” said Oksana Romaniuk.

“[..]the weakening of democracy and democratic institutions in Ukraine.” Yeah right, perhaps you should speak to your president-overdue about that...

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 6 2025 20:37 utc | 96

Ehh... I suspect this is usual British misinformation. If Zelly refuses, Trump will get his reason for cutting aid and Ukraine loose.

Trump peace plan for Ukraine is leaked: Talks with Putin, ceasefire by Easter and an end to Zelensky's NATO dream

- Donald Trump is reportedly working on a peace plan to end the Ukraine war within 100 days if re-elected.
- A ceasefire is expected by April 20, freezing Russia’s advances and banning Ukraine from NATO.
- Ukraine would have to accept Russian sovereignty over annexed territories and withdraw from Russia’s Kursk region.
- European troops, potentially including British forces but not Americans, would enforce a demilitarized zone.
- The EU would help fund Ukraine’s reconstruction, estimated at $486 billion.
- The plan includes a Zelensky-Putin phone call in early February, followed by a meeting and a ceasefire declaration.
- Trump would maintain U.S. military support for Ukraine and back its EU membership by 2030.

https://x.com/clashreport/status/1887527549414129667

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 6 2025 21:11 utc | 97

Posted by: Newbie | Feb 6 2025 19:52 utc | 89

The TG channels say the AFU offensive was overwhelmingly repelled. That has undoubtedly the potential to put them in an even weaker position in south of Sudzha, to prevent RUAF from putting the road to Sudzha and coming from Sumy under fire control.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 6 2025 21:14 utc | 98

Syria could not have gone better for the Axis. That is why (IMO) Russia and Iran signed off on Turkiye taking it over.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 6 2025 20:18 utc | 94

NATO tanks will be rolling down the Red Square and you will be posting what a strategic masterstroke that is by Putin.

Go back in time and review when the USSR first allied with Syria and what it did (and was willing to do, but it did not come to that) for Syria.

Also, think about the fact that Putin first went to war to protect Syria, and only seven years later did he enter Ukraine. What does that tell us about Syria's importance?

P.S. How hard is it to look at the obvious objective truth, which is that nearly all Russian oligarchs that matter are Jewish and Zionist, and that Putin is entirely under their thumb, despite the mythology that he somehow subjugated them. That fact explains all of Russia's foreign policy, in the Middle East and elsewhere, neatly and with no complications. The highly multidimensional geopolitical chess grandmastery hypothesis very much does not do that.

Posted by: ANON2022 | Feb 6 2025 21:27 utc | 99

Russian military in Ukraine riding on donkeys amid vehicle shortage.

Posted by: Märla | Feb 6 2025 21:34 utc | 100