Ukraine - There Is Nothing Left To Trade For More War Or A Peace Deal
When Donald Trump got re-elected the leadership of Ukraine was elated (archived):
[I]t comes as quite a surprise—and as an indication of just how bad things have become in the country in recent months—to learn that many senior officials [in Ukraine] were hoping for a Donald Trump victory. Faced with the choice of continued bare life-support or a wildcard president who would rip up the rules and almost certainly cut aid, they were prepared to gamble.President Volodymyr Zelensky was quick to endorse the victory, and in fulsome terms. “We look forward to an era of a strong United States of America under President Trump’s decisive leadership,” he wrote on X (formerly Twitter, and now run by the pro-Trump billionaire Elon Musk). This was not just spin. In private, his staff have become increasingly frustrated by what they describe as the Biden administration’s “self-deterrence”, the habit of fearing escalation with Russia to the point of paralysis, and a growing gap between the rhetoric of “standing with Ukraine for as long as it takes” and actions that suggest the opposite.
Zelenski thought that he could make deals with Trump:
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy pored over a once-classified map of vast deposits of rare earths and other critical minerals during an interview with Reuters on Friday, part of a push to appeal to Donald Trump's penchant for a deal.The U.S. president, whose administration is pressing for a rapid end to Ukraine's war with Russia, said on Monday he wanted Ukraine to supply the U.S. with rare earths and other minerals in return for financially supporting its war effort.
"If we are talking about a deal, then let's do a deal, we are only for it," Zelenskiy said, emphasising Ukraine's need for security guarantees from its allies as part of any settlement.
Trump agreed to take the offer but in return of nothing for it:
Trump, 78, insisted that the US should have access to Ukraine’s natural resources regardless of whether a peace deal between Russia and the former Soviet state can be successfully negotiated, arguing that the “more than $300 billion” the US has provided Ukraine dwarfs what other nations have contributed to the war effort.“They may make a deal. They may not make a deal. They may be Russian someday, or they may not be Russian someday. But we’re going to have all this money in [Ukraine] and I say, I want it back,” the president said.
“I told them that I want the equivalent of like $500 billion worth of rare earth [minerals], and they’ve essentially agreed to do that,” Trump revealed.
There are many delusions in all of this. Those rare earth and other valuable deposits in Ukraine which are economically viable to explore have already been sold to various businessmen and international companies (machine translation):
In order for the United States to work with Ukrainian minerals, permits for the operation of deposits must be withdrawn from the current owners, in particular from the former Minister of Ecology and president of Burisma Mykola Zlochevsky.This was stated in his Telegram channel by the head of the committee. The Supreme Court Minister of Finance, Tax and Customs Policy Daniil Hetmantsev.
Before giving them to the U.S. Ukraine would have to steal those back:
"For 30 years, all permits for commercially interesting deposits have already been distributed to "respectable" people. That is, we have nothing or almost nothing to offer our partners," Hetmantsev wrote.He added that the priority issue now is to audit all mineral deposits and return them to the people. Moreover, this issue, according to Hetmantsev, should be "resolved regardless of the interests of the United States or other partners."
The whole argument from either side is thus a scam. There are no minerals for Ukraine to simply hand over to Trump. Whatever is there has already been sold or is too expensive to retrieve (see here for details (in Russian)). Moreover, there is no price Trump will accept to further support Ukraine or to hand it some guarantees.
U.S. attempts to get to some ceasefire are stillborn. Trump is unwilling to give Russia what it has demanded. Knowing that the U.S. can not to be trusted Russia is not willing to accept anything less than that:
The very short version of the argument is that top Russian officials, most visibly Putin, have taken to regularly and in very long form describing the US and Western record of duplicity, not just with Ukraine but on other fronts. This line of commentary has only become more pointed and the bill of particulars of Western treachery, longer.This means the Russians are clearly, repeatedly, and consistently saying any agreement with the West would be worthless. The obvious implication isn’t simply that there would be nothing to gain in signing one, but that it would be self-destructive to do so, since it would give Russia a false sense of security that the West would exploit, as it has again and again and again.
In other words, all of the focus on the content of a potential agreement misses the elephant in the room: the content is almost irrelevant. Russians cannot get to a process by which the perfidious West can be made trustworthy.
With talks going nowhere Trump may try to delay a Russian victory. Or he may want to dump the whole issue to Europe.
[T]hinking that Ukraine can hold out as long as early 2026 seems charitable. And given the Trump team’s apparent complete misreading of Russia’s cards, they seem vanishingly unlikely to believe how Russia can and will simply proceed to roll over Ukraine and not even break all that much of a sweat in the process.
And that’s before Trump’s outsized ego getting in the way. I don’t think he is constitutionally able to deal with Putin from a position of real weakness, which will result in further delay in setting up a meeting, and that eventual session resulting in Putin and Trump talking past each other.
There will be no peace deal.
This outcome of this war will have to be decided on the battlefield.
Posted by b on February 11, 2025 at 16:34 UTC | Permalink
next page »If the outcome of this war is to be decided on the Battlefield then Russia should stop scratching it's Hazelnuts and get the fuck on with it......
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Feb 11 2025 16:43 utc | 2
This war was lost when Ukraine's counteroffensive stalled out on Surovikin's defenses.
Since then, this has been a slow-motion car crash.
Artillery is the God of War and the Russians always had the advantages in air defense and artillery.
They also benefit from relatively easy logistics fighting on their front porch.
Ukraine has to import materiel from America, the UK, and France.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 11 2025 16:49 utc | 3
The development of the FAB bombs has saved thousands of Russian lives.
Allowing Russian forces to assault and pummel prepared Ukrainian defenses from a safe distance.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 11 2025 16:50 utc | 4
Dmitry Peskov makes some observations:
MOSCOW, February 11. /TASS/. A large part of Ukraine seeks to reunite with Russia and has already done so, as the situation on the battlefield demonstrates, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.https://tass.com/politics/1911279Commenting on US President Donald Trump's statement that Ukraine could one day become Russia, the spokesman said: "The fact that a large part of Ukraine wants to become Russia or has already joined it is obvious."
"This is a fact that has materialized on the ground: Russia now has four new regions. People who, despite many dangers, were queuing to vote in a referendum on joining Russia - this in many ways corresponds to the words of [US] President [Donald] Trump," Peskov pointed out.
Speaking about the possibility of implementing the US leader’s proposals, the Kremlin spokesman added that "every event has a 50% chance: either yes or no."
Earlier, in an interview with the Fox News TV channel, Trump said that "Ukraine may be Russian one day" and did not rule out that he would like Ukraine to return all the money spent by the US government on its support. The US leader clarified that he would like to receive the equivalent of $500 billion in Ukrainian rare-earth metals.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 11 2025 16:51 utc | 5
For once I agree with our friend Sean the Leprechaun. Time to open a can of "ass-whuppin'" on NATO. Send some more generals off to the Alps to have tragic skiing accidents!
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Feb 11 2025 16:52 utc | 6
Trump washes his hands of the whole affair. On the way out he blames the intransigence of Z and the Eurofags and hands it off to them. If they want to continue it, they can without US help or support. It isn’t and never was Trump’s war anyway.
Russia can deal with the Brits, who are certifiably crazy if he doesn’t want to deal with Trump. Without the US restraining them, no telling what the twits in London do.
Posted by: CullenBaker | Feb 11 2025 16:53 utc | 7
Hmmm, you can still make "deals" with an untrustworthy adversary. The way to do it is to make sure that the deal is truly a win-win so that it's in the adversary's interest to stay with the deal. To avoid changes in interests causing abrogation of agreement, make sure the deal focuses on Long Term interests, rather than temporary or short-term ones.
The SU/US nuclear arms treaties worked for decades because they were in the strategic interests of both parties. Once they were not post SU's end, the western side started to change or end the agreements. But for decades, the agreements reduced nuclear tensions and promoted peace.
So, can a win-win be developed here between Russia and the US? I don't know since, beyond the obvious war MIC grift and Euro beggaring aspects of the Ukraine Caper, I have trouble seeing what the US interest in Ukraine is in the first place. So smarter minds need to let me know :)
Posted by: Caliman | Feb 11 2025 16:55 utc | 8
Thanks for the posting b
I keep putting Ukraine within the context of the civilization war that humanity is in. I suspect that global focus is currently on the ploy of empire in Occupied Palestine because of it religious and geopolitical implications.
Ukraine has lost and it is just uncertain how the surrender works out since there are not enough adults in the room to develop a new world order like a Yalta agreement.
I see the military doing the surrender rather than Z who has no agency.
Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 11 2025 16:55 utc | 9
i agree with you b.. thanks...
i think he dumps it all on europe.. meanwhile von leyen, or lie'n as the case may be, is saying europe has to get its own set up similar to nato.... would be nice if the usa packed it's propaganda bags, money bags, and military weapon bags and went home.. not sure the folks back home in good ole usa are going to be happy about that, unless they can find another place to get a war going..
what i don't understand is how zelensky has held on for as long as he has - unelected at this point and essentially a dictator... it is becoming harder and harder for the west to support him here and that is a good thing..
Posted by: james | Feb 11 2025 16:57 utc | 10
Xi Jinping to visit Putin in Moscow in May, says Russian ambassador to China.
Posted by: Elber | Feb 11 2025 16:58 utc | 11
To B's point:
"Trump is unwilling to give Russia what it has demanded"
I wrote this yesterday:
"Because of the 4 year long propaganda blitz "Russia..Russia..RUSSIA", Trump can not publicly appear to be conciliatory to Russia because, the blue-no-matter-who/DNCers/Cheney-Bush-blue-blooded-Rs/3LA-media-minions will start the whole "Russia..Russia..RUSSIA" all over again. As stated earlier today"
To Sean the leprechaun 2:
"If the outcome of this war is to be decided on the Battlefield then Russia should stop scratching it's Hazelnuts and get the fuck on with it......"
I concur and wrote this yesterday:
"The Kremlin needs to pull it's head out of the sand and start shaping western opinion by securing the Black-Sea-Coast. That is an objective reality that western propaganda ministries can not gloss over... until the willfully ignorant, elite/wanna-be-elites have military reality shoved up their collective @$$...Trump is not going to have leeway to negotiate the terms of surrender. For reasons unknown to me the Russian High Commands military focus has been in areas that ex-ukrainia has heavily defended, lands that the US [not ex-ukrainia] will cede in negotiations anyway while ignoring the areas that will force the west to end this wasteful war. Take the Black-Sea-Coast and this war is over...sans the signing ceremony, until then intransigence is the order of the day".
Posted by: S Brennan | Feb 11 2025 17:04 utc | 12
@ james | Feb 11 2025 16:57 utc | 10
what i don't understand is how zelensky has held on for as long as he has
A likely answer is that he is someone’s puppet, or at least front-man, and it suits whoever is behind Zelly for him to remain in position, at least for the time being. Who his backers might be could fill reams of posts with speculation, but whatever, his fate is not in his own hands as I see it.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 11 2025 17:05 utc | 13
And Ukraine's chief of military intelligence Budanov already stated behind closed doors that if there is no kind of peace deal by the summer, as in a delay of hostilities so Ukraine's military can restructure and re-arm, then Ukraine will likely seize to exist in it's current form. Ukraine should be partitioned. The sooner the better and then Ukraine's NATO curators just maybe might get a grip of reality again.
Posted by: xor | Feb 11 2025 17:05 utc | 14
"There are many delusions in all of this. Those rare earth and other valuable deposits in Ukraine which are economically viable to explore have already been sold to various businessmen and international companies (machine translation):"
b
You are a bit off the track. The most important element of making profit in rare earths is having the best jurisdiction
And rare earths are not that 'rare'.
China controls 95% of the rare earths production not because they have more deposits no, they use chlorinization to refine the rare earths ore-very cheap and the ore returns (955) are very high. However, chlornization (1) is banned in almost every country but China as it is a huge pollutant-destroys creeks, river, water tables.
So here is what is interesting-Ukraine can be used as a competing producer of rare earths in Ukraine as there laws/regulations are what the Empire says they are; so now they would use the cheap chlorinization process on Ukraine soil.
Hence, the Empire could compete with China on the ever more important rare earth's market. Greenland has deposits of rare earth just mine them and send them onto Ukraine-doesn't matter that , currently, the rare earths on Ukranie soil are 70% owned by the Russians.
Its the jurisdiction, the reulatory framework, not the geography of rare earth's deposits themselves.
1. "While a complete ban on all chlorination refining processes isn't currently in place globally, specific types of chlorinated chemicals, like short-chained chlorinated paraffins (SCCPs), are considered highly concerning and have been banned by the EPA due to their persistent, bioaccumulative, and toxic nature; meaning certain applications of chlorination are restricted depending on the chemical compound involved".
"Ukraine has lost..."
To be true to the history of this war, people should say NATO's Ukraine has lost, and the Ukrainian and Russian people have won.
Posted by: SLOWDL | Feb 11 2025 17:10 utc | 16
The Ukrainian civil war will not be decided on the battlefield, rather on the Bond Market.
10 year treasury still above 4.5%….
No cheap debt =
No money =
No war
Posted by: Exile | Feb 11 2025 17:12 utc | 17
Addendum:
The Ukrainian Civil War is a mere sideshow to the global struggle.
Posted by: Exile | Feb 11 2025 17:15 utc | 18
A lot of you don’t realize how drastically the media dynamic and mood have changed in the US. There will be no repeat of “Russia, Russia, Russia” no matter what Trump does. No one listens to those voices anymore. They are discredited. No one cares what CNN and the like say. The people with suits and briefcases in government that Putin claimed would tell Trump what to do, have been fired or are hiding in their offices and keeping their heads low. Americans are pissed about their money being spent on wars and the like. If Trump lined up bureaucrats and shot them without trial, his popularity would probably increase.
If he can’t get this settled pretty quickly, he will was his hands of it.
Of course, there are rumblings of a large scale deal with the Chinese covering everything from trade to Taiwan and Panama. That could impact everything.
Posted by: CullenBaker | Feb 11 2025 17:16 utc | 19
Another possibility for ending things is if the war-weary population of Ukraine cry “Enough!”.
Unknown people beat up employees of [TCC] in Rivne regionhttps://regionews.ua/ukr/news/rovenskaya/1739291874-na-rivnenshchini-nevidomi-pobili-pratsivnikiv-ttsk (via translation add-on with [Edits].)In one of the districts of the Rivne region, unknown men attacked employees of a [TCC] during a document check. The attackers are now being sought by law enforcement officers
This is stated in the message of the Rivne regional [TCC-SC], reports RegioNews .
The [TCC] notes that the military in the performance of their duties were attacked by persons of mobilization age. The attackers caused injuries to employees of the [TCC] and damaged their equipment.
Police crews and paramedics arrived at the scene of the attack. The [TCC] did not say what injuries the soldiers received during the attack, only clarified that their lives and health were not threatened.
It is also known that the attackers fled the scene, now they are wanted.
The [TCC] reminds that for obstructing the activities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, violators face a sentence of up to 8 years in prison, and for intentional grievous bodily harm committed by a group of people, they can face up to 10 years in prison. There is also a penalty for destroying or damaging someone else's property-from a fine to imprisonment for 3 years.
We will remind, earlier Chernihiv police detained a 43-year-old man who sprayed pepper spray in the face of a military man of the [TCC].
It was also reported that since the beginning of 2025 , there have already been 9 terrorist attacks aimed at the [TCC] and the police. Several people were killed and many were injured.
The Security Service of Ukraine calls for reporting on attempts by Russian agents to recruit Ukrainians to undermine the [TCC].
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 11 2025 17:19 utc | 20
The Ukies will have to formally surrender, and be seen to have done so. The US started it, but can't end it.
Posted by: seer | Feb 11 2025 17:20 utc | 21
You can tell that the whole situation is hopelessly radioactive when Apartheid Clyde doesn't swagger in and offer his solution. Crickets on that front.
Posted by: too scents | Feb 11 2025 17:23 utc | 22
The BRIC Nations Will Eventually Tire Of The US-NATO Belligerence.
“That Many Nations Would Disappear From the Face of the Earth – That Russia
Would Be the Instrument of Chastisement From Heaven For the Whole World.”
Sister Lucia of Fatima 1957
While Your CIA-MOSSAD 'Operation Mockingbird' Media System Tells You Russia
Is 'Bluffing' About Using 'Nuclear' Weapons.!
The Reason The World Hates USA: USAID - About Propaganda, Coups and Color Revolutions.
Posted by: JohnF | Feb 11 2025 17:26 utc | 23
SLOWDL 16 - "Ukrainian and Russian people have won"
Dude, put down the pom-poms before you hurt yourself...this has been a God-awful war based on the infantile fantasies of Anglophilic/English schoolboys residing in DC & London, the objective was never realistic, the cost in lives inestimable.
Yes, Russia has persevered and it's society has been united in cause but, it has lost ~80-90,000 soldiers KIAs. For comparison, the Viet Nam war cost ~60,000 American Soldiers their lives. Multiply those numbers by 5 and you have the number of grieving families.
As for the rump-ex-ukrainia, the country itself will no longer exist, the population willing to serve has been effectively exterminated, the males who are left are unfit for marriage, the women have been sent to the whorehouses of the middle east, Europe and Asia...
As I said; "put down the pom-poms before you hurt yourself"
Posted by: S Brennan | Feb 11 2025 17:31 utc | 24
Meanwhile, things for AFU continue deteriorate behind the western MSM bullshit copium shroud.
Our source reports that at headquarters, Commander-in-Chief Syrsky complained to Zelensky that all current offensives are failing because the military does not want to go on the offensive/meat assaults. They have to mainly send motivated ones, of which there are fewer and fewer in the army every day. This threatens that the army will soon lose its combat capability.Our source reports that all these hyped statements by Zelensky that 18-24 year olds will get a bunch of goodies if they sign a contract with the Armed Forces of Ukraine for a year.
...
We will disappoint many who decided to trust the scammers in power again.
1. They will give one million per year, which means you will simply be given a salary of 83 thousand hryvnia. It follows that you will immediately be trained as an attack aircraft, where the chance of surviving for a year is 5-7% (while 100% you will get PTSD and some other wounds, injuries and ailments in a year).2. Interest-free mortgage. The clever thing is that there is no such project - it's a slogan. Most likely, they will write in it that you can only buy from state-owned construction companies that will build houses after the war. Buy in order of the queue.
3. Admission to a university without exams. This point is completely boring. Now 94% of Ukrainian universities accept everyone who signs a contract, since there is a terrible shortage of applicants.
The main thing that Ze-scammers do not tell you is that the contract is automatically extended during martial law. This means that you will be the same "slave" and will not be able to leave the army until you become disabled without arms/legs, or die, or are captured.
-Legitimny/TG
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 11 2025 17:31 utc | 25
hmm...
"Upmarket means high quality and expensive, intended for rich people."
an anagram of the words
Trump Ukraine
is:
upmarket ruin
Best try to make money elsewhere, Trump.
Posted by: librul | Feb 11 2025 17:31 utc | 26
Atlanticist propaganda mill known as Munich Security Council runs the next few days….
Before RF talks to Trump all sanctions on RF and its citizens must be vacated and all stolen financial assets returned with accrued earnings.
Then RF will have all NATO assets east of Rhine be dumped in Baltic Sea where fish could colonize artificial reefs.
Then Trump and Starmer can offer reparations maybe a few trillion in gold.
Then maybe entertain US surrendering
Posted by: paddy | Feb 11 2025 17:35 utc | 27
From his extensive experience and background in Real Estate, Casinos and Bankruptcy, Trump clearly brings a transactional mindset to geopolitical negotiations. The evidence here and elsewhere is overwhelming.
It is good that the senseless yapping about democracy, freedom, human rights, genocide, etc. is gone from the USA's diplomatic discourse.
It has been replaced with more obvious lying about the situation. There is no way the US has "invested" $300 billion in Ukraine. The Ukraine envoy, Keith Kellogg, tries to convince us that the sanctions pain dial on Russia is only 3/10 when it is closer to 9/10.
Russia knows it is all bluster and bluff. There will be no deal except on their terms.
Posted by: Fool Me Twice | Feb 11 2025 17:41 utc | 28
Posted by: xor | Feb 11 2025 17:05 utc | 14
The newly installed EU puppet in Romania was just kicked out of office - there is a better-than-decent prospect of divvying up some territories of west Ukraine. That could also accelerate Nato/EU dissolution, common borders with Romania, access to Hungary, non of those countries need to care about EU/UrsulaVDL/Nato diktats anymore. The thing will pick up mass and momentum like a snowball and crumble EU.
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 11 2025 17:42 utc | 29
@10
Term expired Zelensky and similarly expired parliament are the same as the U.S. puppets who pillaged S Vietnam during US’ war of fictional dominos in the 1960 to 1975 era.
The difference today is only US mercy are dying.
Posted by: paddy | Feb 11 2025 17:44 utc | 30
As promised yesterday, here's Lukyanov's op/ed, "The American establishment has realized that it is inexpedient for the United States to be everywhere--Fyodor Lukyanov". It's a shorter read than most. IMO, his POV is interesting but not shared by Team Putin.
Recognition the US, no matter who is president, does not abide by its agreements is an advancement the world requires to deal with the decrepit hegemon. The use of the Minsk agreements to secure time to arm Ukraine and disenfranchise its Russian speaking citizens has finally educated the world.
Posted by: Keme | Feb 11 2025 17:51 utc | 32
The suicidal tactics of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are becoming more and more sophisticated. Big Frontline Report February 1-10, 2025
Excerpt:
The genius of the Russian military machine lies in the fact that our generals can turn the enemy's strengths into a deadly trap for them. However, in the case of Ukraine, stupidity and blind faith in Western superiority have turned the tactics of the AFU not even into a trap for themselves, but simply into a machine of mass suicide on an industrial scale. Nobody is forcing the Ukrops to fight in such a wasteful way - this is their own initiative. From the outside, it seems that Ukrainian soldiers simply love to die senselessly for Zelensky.
The Perekhvat Telegram channel published preliminary data on AFU losses since the start of the Special Military Operation (SMO) - a million Ukrainian corpses and cripples since 2022. Can you imagine? One million able-bodied men, mostly of childbearing age, buried in the ground or disabled.
Posted by: berthold | Feb 11 2025 17:53 utc | 33
The outcome has already been decided. Ukraine lost long ago. All that is left is how the West will spin this one as they walk away with their hands full of nothing. The real fun begins when western Ukraine falls into chaos. That will happen.
Posted by: nook | Feb 11 2025 17:56 utc | 34
Cleaned up link posted by @berthold: https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/the-ukrainian-armed-forces-suicide
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 11 2025 17:58 utc | 35
Posted by: xor | Feb 11 2025 17:05 utc | 14
The newly installed EU puppet in Romania was just kicked out of office - there is a better-than-decent prospect of divvying up some territories of west Ukraine. That could also accelerate Nato/EU dissolution, common borders with Romania, access to Hungary, non of those countries need to care about EU/UrsulaVDL/Nato diktats anymore. The thing will pick up mass and momentum like a snowball and crumble EU."
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 11 2025 17:42 utc | 29
Quite a perceptive post, I agree; and, hope.
"For reasons unknown to me the Russian High Commands military focus has been in areas that ex-ukrainia has heavily defended, lands that the US [not ex-ukrainia] will cede in negotiations anyway while ignoring the areas that will force the west to end this wasteful war. Take the Black-Sea-Coast and this war is over...sans the signing ceremony, until then intransigence is the order of the day".
Posted by: S Brennan | Feb 11 2025 17:04 utc | 12
You're right! I agree with you!! Just tell me one thing: why are you in such a hurry?
Posted by: Elber | Feb 11 2025 18:11 utc | 37
The West -- but mainly the US of A and NAFO -- lost this war the moment they chose to ransack 300 billion worth of toxic $/eu currency.
Trump knows that he has no options left on the table but to declare loud and clear an absolute unconditional surrender unless of course he opts for more war which would be futile and the end of the empire of lies.
Posted by: pepe | Feb 11 2025 18:11 utc | 38
The last word on trust:
https://www.lauriemeadows.info/conflict_security/Coercive-Diplomacy-the-West's-Strategic-Blunder-Part_one.html#The_Place_of_Trust_in_Relations_between
In which Vladimir Putin says "I hate saying this, but I don't trust anyone".
Posted by: Power and people | Feb 11 2025 18:17 utc | 39
If you want to have a look at how the elites in Ukraine are living then go here and scroll down:
https://kmdesignlab.com/en/project/
I wonder who is owning the 820sqm apartment named American Dream:
https://kmdesignlab.com/en/projects/american-dream/
Marble wherever you look... probably a lot of taxpayer money in there.
Posted by: Zet | Feb 11 2025 18:18 utc | 41
While Trump is clearly being fed bull$#!t intel by Langley it's pretty clear he's getting to a place where this thing could end by late fall 2025. That's significantly better that what Team-Biden had on offer. I know my comment will be troubling, for those suffering cognitive dissonance or, in layman's terms TDS. Here's the supporting evidence for that claim:
======================================
In an interview President Trump related "that Ukraine may make a deal, they may not make a deal. They may be Russian someday, or they may not be Russian someday."
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov responded Tuesday the situation in Ukraine "largely corresponds to President Trump's words. The fact that a significant part of Ukraine wants to become Russia, and has already, is a fact. Any phenomenon can happen with a 50% probability – either yes or no"
Posted by: S Brennan | Feb 11 2025 18:20 utc | 42
@ james | Feb 11 2025 16:57 utc | 10
re: "what i don't understand is how zelensky has held on for as long as he has"
Sure, Russia could have outed Z long ago, but he serves the Russian "special military operation."
Posted by: Don Bacon | Feb 11 2025 18:22 utc | 43
"Hmmm, you can still make "deals" with an untrustworthy adversary.The way to do it is to make sure that the deal is truly a win-win so that it's in the adversary's interest to stay with the deal. "
Posted by: Caliman | Feb 11 2025 16:55 utc | 8
Unfortunately that depends very much on the opposite side of the deal accepting the concept of a win-win non zero-sum outcome. To quote from Michael Hudson recently:
“To Trump, a win-win is a loss, because a win-win means some other country also wins, not only you, the United States. And if some other country also wins, that means the United States has not grabbed everything there is to grab, and Trump wants to grab everything that is available, the entire economic surplus……"
And that appraoch is not limited to economics and trade it underpins the entire mindset and culture across the USA. As numerous broken agreements going right back to 1776 - including the agreement it made with its own people, The Constitution - attest to. We are dealing here with what the rest of the planet recognises as an entity which is not, never has been, never will be agreement capable.
Like a spoilt child it wants everything. Sharing is not in the DNA. The Russians are well aware of this and are playing the long game of letting the West destroy itself.
Posted by: Dave Hansell | Feb 11 2025 18:23 utc | 44
>> Russians cannot get to a process by which the perfidious West can be made trustworthy.
There is a way. If President Trump really wants a deal. And a Noble prize...
It starts with Putins proposal to NATO back in 2021, for a demilitarized zone from Berlin to the Ueal mountains...
There is little chance of a deal for Ukraine. The chance for a much bigger deal are much better. A deal that could save big nations before both get eaten up by the cost of their military. Or by China, which sits on the fence, growing it's military power at a scary rate, getting ready to pick up the pieces should Russia and NATO get into a war.
Posted by: Marvin | Feb 11 2025 18:23 utc | 45
The majority of those rare earth minerals (and other metals) are in the Donbass mining region and are controlled by Russia. If that's what Zelensky has sold to Trump and what Trump has agreed to, this is like Trump having bought the proverbial bridge from Zelensky.
Actually I'm curious about why the media and Trump is beating up this rare earth angle. Rare earth mining is widely known to be costly, heavily polluting, and to have lower profit margins than other types of mining. The US occupied Afghanistan for 20 years and did nothing with it despite Afghanistan's "trillions" worth of rare earths for this very reason. Ditto for the numerous mothballed rare earth mines across the US.
Even if they do capture it and sink billions into developing the mines, given the location and economics, all that is going to happen is the rare earths been exported for sale to China or they'll get retaken by Russia in the next conflict. So it's not even a smart endgame even if they somehow manage to succeed.
Posted by: Autumn | Feb 11 2025 18:24 utc | 46
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 11 2025 16:51 utc | 5
From TASS:
The US leader clarified that he would like to receive the equivalent of $500 billion in Ukrainian rare-earth metals.So here is one idea for negotiations between Trump and Putin: Trump takes the 250 billion euros owned by Russia frozen in Euroclear and the USA completely abandons the whole of Ukraine for Russia to annex plus the Jewish comedian and his whole government and bankova have to face trial in the Donbas for good measure. The USA loses what, 250 billion in sunken costs and Russia loses 50-100 thousand soldiers. Sounds like a deal.
Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Feb 11 2025 18:25 utc | 47
> Americans are pissed about their money being spent on wars and the like. If Trump lined up bureaucrats and shot them without trial, his popularity would probably increase.
> Posted by: CullenBaker | Feb 11 2025 17:16 utc | 19
Oh yeah, they are pissed. They also were pissed 5 years ago, 10 years ago and 15 years ago. What did it bring? Not much. Nothing even of a size of Canada truckers protests, which itself was prooved not enough.
Popularity? Yes, it probably will. I aso suppose, JFK's popularity is quite good, but it does not make him sitting president, does it? Yep, Trump can boost his popularity one or another suicidal way, just we should not mistake popularity for power.
Posted by: Arioch | Feb 11 2025 18:29 utc | 48
Posted by: Autumn | Feb 11 2025 18:24 utc | 46
Russia doesn't have money or interest to develop mineral extraction (at least quickly), they are denied from western companies. China is the only one who has capacity to develop extracting processes for deep underground minerals in a devastated landscape.
Historically the way Russia and China operated gas fields was Chinese money developing fields and China gets a nice discount on purchased products. So it will probably be with these minerals.
The main thing is the minerals are decided from the west, and they contribute adding clout to non-western currencies, and non-western economies (BRICS), as they will be traded in different than western controlled currencies. All part of the process where Europe needs to pay a fair price of things, instead of low colonialist looting prices.
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 11 2025 18:30 utc | 49
Elber 37 "Just tell me one thing: why are you in such a hurry?"
On a personal level, I can think of, at least, ~1,300,000 reasons. Geopolitically, the sooner the "west" stops it's war against Russia [WAR] the sooner Asia will stabilize...with the exception of the coming conflict between those who dream of empire in Nazifide-Isreal and Ottomanstan [formerly Turkey].
So now tell me Elber 37, why do you want this war to continue past it's "sell-by-date"?
Posted by: S Brennan | Feb 11 2025 18:32 utc | 50
I hope President Putin is not as logically/mathematically challenged as his spokesman.
MOSCOW, February 11. /TASS/. A large part of Ukraine seeks to reunite with Russia and has already done so, as the situation on the battlefield demonstrates, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.
..
Speaking about the possibility of implementing the US leader’s proposals, the Kremlin spokesman added that "every event has a 50% chance: either yes or no."
..
https://tass.com/politics/1911279
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 11 2025 16:51 utc | 5
Posted by: Ново З | Feb 11 2025 18:34 utc | 51
Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR):
Ukraine's special services, with the assistance of Western handlers, are preparing for a series of high-profile anti-Russian provocations.It is planned to blow up a foreign vessel in the waters of the Baltic Sea with Russian-made mines and accuse Moscow. According to calculations of Ukrainian and Western security services, the action will push NATO to the decision to close Russia's access to the Baltic Sea.
Also Kiev, together with European security services, is preparing attacks on representatives of the Russian non-system opposition and businessmen living abroad who have fled the law. They want to involve natives of Asian and Middle Eastern countries and offer them up to 20K USD; in case of arrest they should blame the Russian security services.
Posted by: Zet | Feb 11 2025 18:37 utc | 52
paddy | Feb 11 2025 17:35 utc | 27--
You and other barflies might find this of interest, "Frontrunning the Munich Security Conference 14-16 February".
Ukraine just suffered a massive defeat of their counterattack in Kursk and Kramatorsk is now being prepped by artillery. Do watch what's happening on the west side of the Oskol River as Kupyansk looks like it will be bypassed as Russian forces head toward Kharkov. Meanwhile in the South by Kherson it appears prep for an assault is being made there while the river is at a very low level. On the Ukie side, there are those willing to die hard while more IMO are unwilling to die, particularly since the truce talk has lasted almost a month. However, as we saw in WW2, the Nazis won't surrender. IMO, they'll see any attempt at holding elections as the first step toward surrender, so they'll do their utmost to halt that.
Thanks b.
My guess is that Trump will walk away from Ukraine and focus-- or try to focus-- on "America". Mexico is a big one but he might try and smack down a smaller country to work up the frenzy. Lots of red meat issues related to the border, wokeness, rapists, drugs, cartels. Plenty of material for all kinds of mini-series.
Posted by: migueljose | Feb 11 2025 18:39 utc | 54
Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Feb 11 2025 18:25 utc | 47
Not so sure about any of that, I can see Russia insisting upon the wider European security architecture forming a core part of any dialogue or negotiations. It’s not clear to me what leverage Trump has there.
He really does need to read and understand Russia’s December 2021 draft treaty before sitting down with VVP.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 11 2025 18:39 utc | 55
Posted by: Dave Hansell | Feb 11 2025 18:23 utc | 44
"Like a spoilt child it [West] wants everything. Sharing is not in the DNA. The Russians are well aware of this and are playing the long game of letting the West destroy itself."
For those in a hurry, above is why the game has to be slow!
Posted by: Elber | Feb 11 2025 18:46 utc | 56
Real Clear Defense --
What is the state of the Ukrainian minerals industry?
Ukraine’s rare earth elements are largely untapped because of the war and because of state policies regulating the mineral industry. The country also lacks good information to guide the development of rare earth mining.
Geological data is thin because mineral reserves are scattered across Ukraine, and existing studies are considered largely inadequate. The industry’s true potential is clouded by insufficient research, according to businessmen and analysts.
In general, the outlook for Ukrainian natural resources is promising. The country’s reserves of titanium, a key component for the aerospace, medical and automotive industries, are believed to be among Europe’s largest. Ukraine also holds some of Europe’s largest known reserves of lithium, which is required to produce batteries, ceramics and glass.
In 2021, the Ukrainian mineral industry accounted for 6.1% of the country’s gross domestic product and 30% of exports.
An estimated 40% of Ukraine’s metallic mineral resources are inaccessible because of Russian occupation, according to data from We Build Ukraine, a Kyiv-based think tank. Ukraine has argued that it is in Trump’s interest to develop the remainder before Russian advances capture more.
The European Commission identified Ukraine as a potential supplier for over 20 critical raw materials and concluded that the country’s accession to the EU could strengthen the European economy. . .here
Posted by: Don Bacon | Feb 11 2025 18:47 utc | 57
Ukraine's special services, with the assistance of Western handlers, are preparing for a series of high-profile anti-Russian provocations.
Posted by: Zet | Feb 11 2025 18:37 utc | 52
---
What are they going to do? Catapult Budanov's corpse over the Kremlin wall?
Posted by: too scents | Feb 11 2025 18:47 utc | 58
The Trumpenfuehrer is pulling everyone's leg. He has no intention of negotiating. He lies about phone calls with Putin that apparently didn't happen. He blusters. He bloviates.
The perfect face for a Clown World dying empire.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Feb 11 2025 16:42 utc | 1
So true!
But not to forget that he is owned by Musk.
Both of them do not understand the words denazification and demilitarisation. How much time will it take for them to understand?
Posted by: Naive | Feb 11 2025 18:50 utc | 59
Rare earths are actually reasonably common. The US has significant deposits. The main issue is refining (separating them from each other). China is best at this because they use large, open, cheap, and environmentally sketchy methods of refining.
Trump is a BSer. Remember how he said the war would end a day after the election? Not even inaugeration, but election. Remember how Mexico was going to pay for the border wall last term (which never got built). He's just way more bark than bite. Speak loudly and carry a twig.
Russia does have interests in ending the war. 1. It is expensive monetarily. 2. It is expensive in lives. 3. It distracts them from other regions. 4. Sanctions (relief).
Sure, Russia is doing slightly better than Ukraine, lately. But it sure ain't some drive on Berlin. It's a snail march. And the muh attrition is total cope. If Russia could deal with Ukraine and kick them out of Kursk/4 oblasts quickly, they would. They just can't. So we have the snail battle. And the cost mounts...
Posted by: Anonymous | Feb 11 2025 19:01 utc | 60
@ Posted by: Arioch | Feb 11 2025 18:29 utc | 48
Missing in this and the preceding analysis is that these disruptions (the BLM uprisings of 2020, the mass protests against Covid prohibitions) were not sufficiently aimed at taking popular power back, and were quickly co-opted by the political (and corporate) mainstream. The GOP, an establishment party if there ever was one, was very happy to throw public health concerns to the wind in the name of unrestricted capital accumulation. The BLM uprisings were put down with force, but the concerns expressed - the ones compatible with the private property regime - were recuperated by established powers as well (although these concessions have now been largely reversed).
Had the BLM uprising resulted in, say, the storming of police armories, the arming of the people, and the expropriation of the electric power and water facilities, the uprising could have used that newfound power to shut off the means of modern life to the ruling class. The ruling class, after all, lives in known neighborhoods, and these facilities have the power to shut off water and electricity to individual domiciles. That would have achieved a lot more than mere concessions. Paraphrasing CLR James, the ruling class is only defeated when running for their lives.
Posted by: fnord | Feb 11 2025 19:02 utc | 61
Posted by: CullenBaker | Feb 11 2025 16:53 utc | 7
Trump washes his hands of the whole affair.
<=The city of London is not going to give up..they are going to increase the terrorism to unfathomable levels and take the terror to downtown Russian cities just like the Israelis did in Gaza..
Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 11 2025 16:55 utc | 9
I see the military doing the surrender rather than Z who has no agency. <=I don't believe the UK elite will allow surrender..
Posted by: S Brennan | Feb 11 2025 17:04 utc | 12
"The Kremlin needs to .. secure the Black-Sea-Coast.
<=IMO, if Russia wants peace, it needs to do something that scares the hell of the British..
Posted by: SLOWDL | Feb 11 2025 17:10 utc | 16
NATO's Ukraine has lost, and the Ukrainian and Russian people have won.
B. S. Ukraine is a continuation of the British war against Russia. Its been ongoing since at least as early as 1944..
Posted by: CullenBaker | Feb 11 2025 17:16 utc | 19
A lot of you don’t realize how drastically the media dynamic and mood have changed in the US.
Americans are pissed about their money being spent on wars and the like. If Trump lined up bureaucrats and shot them without trial, his popularity would probably increase.
<= I am one who does not realize any change in mood or media. Everything good guy Trump does bad guy supreme reverses.
Americans are being bad guy, good guy manipulated.
Not enough Americans are pissed. Most Americans do not believe the USA is involved in wars. Very few Americans understand numbers as big as Billions, Trillions so outrageous spending is a non comprehension able. Further support for the war in Ukraine is coming from the private companies.. with interest or intentions in Ukraine. Americans cannot point Ukraine out on an un labeled map.
Further adoption and execution of USA foreign policy is done in secret.. allowing the people appointed to manage government to keep secrets is a major fault in the design of the US constitution.
It is impossible for democracy to exist if the government people can keep secrets..
Posted by: snake | Feb 11 2025 19:03 utc | 62
What are they going to do? Catapult Budanov's corpse over the Kremlin wall?
Posted by: too scents | Feb 11 2025 18:47 utc | 58
How about a yacht with some Russian explosives (probably called noviblast analog to novichok) taking out one of the tankers of the Russian shadow fleet. Doesn't make sense? Well, welcome to the West!
Posted by: Zet | Feb 11 2025 19:04 utc | 63
Dave Hansell | Feb 11 2025 18:23 utc | 44
I disagree with the idea that the US has never kept its agreements … I’m sure both of us could list many agreements made that have been kept over decades and longer.
Your point about wanting it all is a symptom of the misreading of omnipotence: if one is all powerful, why should one compromise at all? Why not simply demand? That’s been the way they have acted since shortly after 1991, to great disasters to their own relative power.
In Trump, you have a consummate deal making businessman president: he’ll try to get everything he can, but I actually think he realizes there are costs to unilaterality (if that’s a word), not least being everyone is gettable in the end.
I think there’s a deal to be had here. Europe will lose bigly but they deserve to, craven satraps that they have been. But Russia could achieve most of its ends and restabilize which would be worth a lot.
Talk about keeping deals: I’m waiting to see European faces when they realize US will categorically Not come to their rescue when nukes are threatened and Article 5 means zero when it becomes inconvenient. That’s a deal that was never meant to be kept.
Posted by: Caliman | Feb 11 2025 19:08 utc | 64
I ran into an interesting contrarian or skeptical take on all of this today from a Spanish substack writer, who I guess writes in English. Some of the stuff reminds me of shadowbanned and other ostensibly pro-Russia but highly critical accounts of how "Putin" has managed the war, but in this case there is another angle.
https://concernedceltiberian.substack.com/p/the-new-entente
Things that DO NOT MAKE ANY SENSE in the Russian side One of the most striking things for any neutral observer is that Russia is assaulting headlong strictly only against the most urbanized, fortified areas in the Donbass region and not attacking across open, rural areas with much less dense fortifications - and almost no civilians in harm’s way. A couple of maps here to make things more obvious-er: (picture of a map)In green all the inactive areas.
One obvious front that is not activated is the Zaporozhye steppe. By just launching it - even if it used only a fraction of the exiting forces-, the strategic cities of Zaporozhye and Dnipro would be instantly endangered with the potential for a flanking attack into the back of the UKR Donbass fortifications & supply routes as well. (another map)
Pretty obvious move here along mostly empty flat fields.
But perhaps the most incomprehensible Russian operation is the ongoing (January-February 2025) Oskil river bridgehead. If you zoom out a bit you can see how moronic it is to embark into establishing a bridgehead -one of the most complicated military operations-, when you just could walk North to South from the frontier along the Western riverside, potentially enveloping the UKR defenders entrenched along the river as well. (another map)
[.......]
Another big red flag in the not-war is Russia not taking down the electric grid. UKR could be already living back in the 19th century (and having a military potential also reduced to a similar historic standard) if Russia would have chosen to do it, and with a fraction of the munitions that it has used hitting targets that can be quickly repaired, like switch-yards and transformer substations. Apparently, leaving the lights on in Ukraine is because of humanitarian reasons. Of course, the counter of not pursuing this strategy means the additional killing of hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian conscripts and Russian soldiers, something which looks to be OK for the Kreml.
A related point is Russia not taking down transport or other energy infrastructure (the famous bridges over the Dnieper, railways, harbors, high voltage power lines connecting UKR with the neighboring countries, domestic natgas infrastructure inside UKR, etc…), neither carrying out decapitation strikes.
On the other side, while Russia is winning the industrial war (although it is more exact to say that it is the West the side who has lost the industrial mobilization by its own choices), many of the Kreml internal policies do not make any sense, either. A short list: Not establishing capital control to avoid capital flight out of the country; not declaring a state of war and commandeering critical industries’ resources (in part) to support the military industry; not establishing a national policy (like a national development bank) to deliver soft loans and other support to critical areas of the economy; not mobilizing Russia’s allies potential, like e.g. creating additional production lines of critical military gear in allied countries and receiving the product of these lines in exchange for the technology transfer, etc etc.
And what about the Oreshnik super-weapon? If it works as advertised, it gives an important edge to the Russian side because it allows the Bear to hit almost anywhere in the continent with an almost nuclear-like power without having to resort to tactical nuclear weapons. But instead of making a big PR show out of its use (e.g. by publicly declaring the target before its use so that the impact can be filmed from several angles or by using it to blow up a very symbolic target), it is used against some half-empty factory where the damage can be easily concealed by the Ukies.
Other thing that does not make any frigging sense is the economic / financial side. OK, we can all agree that Russia withstood the sanctions war pretty well. And this might have been precisely one of the turning points of this whole affair that has led the USA to accept defeat. But frankly, in a world with very inelastic prices for many of Russias’ top exports (oil, gas, uranium fuel, etc), completely shutting down Russian exports would have produced such a severe price spike in vital commodities that, considering the precarious economic situation in many regions, it would have set in motion a global recession. A first year Economics student could have predicted that. Also, due to Russia’s size, its type of economy and its direct connections with its present BFF, China, it’s not so difficult to come to the conclusion that Russia is the most “unsanctionable” country around and that the end result of these sanctions has been rather the de-industrialization of Europe and its further vassalification under the Gringo boot. On top of that, as John Helmer has pointed out, many of the economic problems surfacing in the Russian side have been caused in no small part by the neoliberal (and frankly unfathomable) policies of the RU central bank. While alternative economists like Glaziev, who has lobbied for dedollarization and Eurasian integration, continue to be sidelined. This financial auto-sabotage extends to the even weirder affair of the Russian assets seized by the Western side under the total passivity of the Russian authorities and where, of course, no one of relevance was punished.
I could go on and on for a long time into more and more examples. (and he does)
Any thoughts? There are some compelling questions and a grander 'unifying' theory involving the recent noises from Trump about Greenland and Panama and also Rubio regarding breaking the world into multiple zones under the influence of regional hegemons. Thus a slow wind down of the US global empire, with Russia and China both seemingly trying to help rather than collapse the whole thing quickly. Again, English not the author's first language, may be machine translated.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Feb 11 2025 19:11 utc | 65
@ Posted by: Dave Hansell | Feb 11 2025 18:23 utc | 44
Well said and should be widely read.
Posted by: Clever Dog | Feb 11 2025 19:12 utc | 66
P.S. regarding that Substack link I excerpted above - I only did a small fraction of the overall article. The author also expresses skepticism about the Ukrainian side of the war and it's quite long. Anyway, if anyone reads it, let me know what you think.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Feb 11 2025 19:15 utc | 67
There will be no peace deal. The immigrants ate the dogs.
MAGA voters are so clever.
Meanwhile Nineteen state Attorney Generals collectively sued the Trump administration and the Treasury over the Treasury’s treatment of safe and secure data on Sunday night, in a lawsuit now known as “New York et al. v. Trump et al.”
Here:
Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Feb 11 2025 19:21 utc | 68
This outcome of this war will have to be decided on the battlefield.
It's been a long time since anything was decided this way. We have been living under the shadow of fake war for 80 years and have all grown up believing war is inherently bad. But it is the great teacher, as Plato said, and (this time Heraclitus) resolves both contradictions and ambiguities. War is a juridical ordeal that settles the conflict which underpins it. We always think Capital loves war—and that's true to a point. A certain type of gangster capitalism gains from the racket. But under a dominant form of capitalism that looks for stability in order to establish indebted clients and docile compliant consumers war is hugely disruptive. It can radicalize, destroy supply chains, push populations to default or cease consuming in predictable ways. It can foster social change. Finance capital doesn't like it.
But in the end, once we clear away the obvious negatives, war reveals the underlying realities. The USA may well have been on track to become the industrial superpower of the 20th century but WW2 was the necessary condition for the fulfillment of that promise partly because of the New Deal and partly because the markets for manufacturing needed to be forced into place. WW2 cleared the air sufficiently to be able to make out where the lines of power truly lay. War is not morally good or bad, but a crisis in the etymological sense: a turning point, a febrile test, a judgment and a harsh ruling. Good or bad, it's necessary.
Posted by: Patroklos | Feb 11 2025 19:21 utc | 69
Tom_Q_Collins 65,
I too am baffled by Russia's MOD wanting to stretch out the war as long as possible. Clearly, there are ghouls who think mass causalities a good thing but, not I.
This war should have ended, on Russian terms, 6 months ago, is this Russia's MOD doing to Russia/Putin what the USA's DoD did to the US/LBJ?
Posted by: S Brennan | Feb 11 2025 19:22 utc | 70
Posted by: canuck | Feb 11 2025 17:10 utc | 15
China controls 95% of the rare earths production not because they have more deposits no, they use chlorinization to refine the rare earths ore-very cheap and the ore returns (955) are very high. However, chlornization (1) is banned in almost every country but China
Here he is again with his China bad lies.
They certainly do have the largest rare earths reserves. Even more than double of nr 2, Brazil.
The biggest polluter country that has never had any regard for the environment, the US obviously uses it, not just China. And so do India, Aus, Japan.
While a complete ban on all chlorination refining processes isn't currently in place globally, specific types of chlorinated chemicals, like short-chained chlorinated paraffins (SCCPs), are considered highly concerning and have been banned by the EPA
Again lies:
The EPA has -'proposed restrictions' on IMPORTATION
-'Reviewing the manufacturing and processing of SCCPs in the U.S.' and 'evaluating the potential for safer alternatives.'
-'Monitoring and controlling'
No better than the "China steals our tech".
Your sore loser "China is only winning bcs of cheating" cope is based on lies.
AS always with N-americans.
Posted by: Ed Bernays | Feb 11 2025 19:22 utc | 71
No Open Thread.
Musk has been linked and nurtured by the CIA since at least 2018 - Trump wants Musk to build an Iron Dome over the USA, that uses Musk's StarLink satellites, or something similar to shoot down incoming nukes against the USA - leaving America free to nuke whatever country it wants - the nukes will need to be based in space - and Musk is giving the excuse that the hundreds of nukes that will be based in space - are to be fired at Mars to kick-start its atmosphere.
Truman nuked Japan - and both Truman and Eisenhower wanted to nuke China - its said that Oppenheimer actually leaked nuclear secrets to Russia/USSR post-WWII - to stop the US nuking the Soviets.
If Trump and Musk can pull this Iron Dome thing off, it means Washington can nuke any country in the world that it wants - without America being nuked itself.
"Until he entered the Trump White House, many still perceived Musk as a radical tech industry outsider. Yet this was never the case. From virtually the beginning of his career, Musk’s path has been shaped by his exceptionally close relationship with the U.S. national security state, particularly with Mike Griffin of the CIA.
From 2002 to 2005, Griffin led In-Q-Tel, the CIA’s venture capitalist wing. In-Q-Tel is an organization dedicated to identifying, nurturing, and working with tech companies that can provide Washington with cutting-edge technologies, keeping it one step ahead of its competition.
Griffin was an early believer in Musk. In February 2002, he accompanied Musk to Russia, where the pair attempted to purchase cut-price intercontinental ballistic missiles to start SpaceX. Griffin spoke up for Musk in government meetings, backing him as a potential “Henry Ford” of the tech and military-industrial complex."
https://www.mintpressnews.com/pentagon-recruiting-elon-musk-nuclear-war/289055/
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Feb 11 2025 19:23 utc | 72
@snake
You simply don’t have any idea of what is going on in the US right now. Americans are WELL aware of the billions and trillions squandered. And they pretty much want blood.
At this moment, Trump is the most powerful US president since FDR and he is on the way to being the most powerful since Lincoln. His opposition is scrambling and powerless and he has manipulated them into reflexively opposing him on issues where public opinion is 80/20 and they are taking the 20. This is a revolution in US politics and he was serious about dismantling the deep state.
Now, sure, the issue remains to be completed and he may fail in the end, but he has already struck mortal blows at elements of the deep state. Unlike past reformers, Trump immediately and with great vigor went after the life’s blood of the deep state…the money. The deep state is being strangled. And he is airing the dirty laundry in public for all to see. Most of it is indefensible and yet, the opposition is too stupid to a avoid defending the indefensible and gets sucked further into the trap.
It’s been the most remarkable three weeks I’ve ever seen in my life.
Posted by: CullenBaker | Feb 11 2025 19:26 utc | 73
If Trump and Musk can pull this Iron Dome thing off
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Feb 11 2025 19:23 utc |
---
Its all fun and games until a madman nukes the ionosphere.
Posted by: too scents | Feb 11 2025 19:28 utc | 74
Our host is quite correct that Trump cannot actually get $500 gigabucks from Ukraine for rare earths. But then it is nearly as improbable that Trump can do a fabulously develop Gaza strip into Trump property either. The question is, does the man really think this? Or, is it more an empty promise that there will be a profit to America in continuing the war? The problem with endorsing a dictator is you can't really be sure what he'll do. Trump sent aid to Ukraine's war all through his term, absent the notorious interruption he was impeached for. And his man Johnson ran the last Biden tranche through the House. So the pushback in the comments that of course Trump is the Anti-War Hero who will keep his campaign promises seems to me rather optimistic. The basic conclusion, that at this point there isn't any reason to see Trump making peace, sorry, I have to agree with.
I would add it's not at all clear Trump would return seized Russian assets to Russia. Keith Kellogg claiming $300 000 000 looks more like he's thinking of the Russian assets than direct US aid. Nor is it clear that Trump wants to break up NATO, rather than get more money from them via arms sales as they ramp up defense spending. A cheaper NATO, given its incorporation of revanchist powers like Poland and the Baltics and Finland is a delicate task to administer. At a guess it would be beyond the competence of Trump and his latest mouthpieces. And NATO will still aspire to play a role in the Balkans?
It also seems to me that if Ukraine is straightforwardly defeated on the battlefield, it will be seen as a defeat of imperialism, of American power. And Trump will take the blame for that (unfair to blame him alone, but like Biden in Afghanistan, that won't matter.) I don't think the fury at defeat will be limited to die hard Democrats who really believed Trump was Putin's puppy. Presiding over the defeat of America will be deemed anti-patriotic, not partisan.
People saw the fall of Kabul as the fall of Saigon, they'll know what it means. The sitting president takes the blame for events not under his control. I suspect Trump believes the same.
Our host's belief the issue will be decided on the battlefield is actually a very grim one...and poses the threat of victory to Putin. Whatever will he do when the imperialists are not just greedy but truly threatened?
Posted by: steven t johnson | Feb 11 2025 19:30 utc | 75
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Feb 11 2025 19:11 utc | 65
There are many mistakes in this text, e.g. not having capital controls:
Plus stuff like this: "when you just could walk North to South from the frontier along the Western riverside"
Well, you can surely see the local issues directly from your couch's comfort in Italy, right?
Posted by: Zet | Feb 11 2025 19:30 utc | 76
Anybody who thinks Farage, Meloni, Le Pen, Geert Wilders or Elisabeth Weidel or any other supposedly right-wing populist will be any different is living in la la land.
Even Orban was "all in" until the failed summer offensive and realised he couldn't win. His number one priority is get Serbia into the EU.
Gangsters the lot of them.
But they sure know how to herd sheep with dog whistles and disco lights.
Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Feb 11 2025 19:32 utc | 77
Posted by: Zet | Feb 11 2025 18:37 utc | 52
###############
Russia is fully aware that there are still elements of the USG that Trump does not control.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 11 2025 19:32 utc | 78
Posted by: S Brennan | Feb 11 2025 19:22 utc | 70
###################
Russia cannot stop until all of its aims are achieved.
The point is not to have to do this again in 5 years.
As long as the EU and America aren't ready to stop, the war must continue.
Zelensky controls nothing.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 11 2025 19:36 utc | 79
It’s been the most remarkable three weeks I’ve ever seen in my life.
Posted by: CullenBaker | Feb 11 2025 19:26 utc | 73
What you're witnessing, at the end of the day, for any relatively minor goods* that may come of it, is the final oligarchification of the US administrative state (soon to merely be administrative function). Reagan on 'roids. With the benefit of more centralized technical systems (themselves ultimately the creation of Reagan- and Clinton-ism, coupled with the prevalence of the 'Unitary Executive' most recently invoked by the Bush II Regime).
*Regarding the "goods" I alluded to, even getting rid of USAID is not going to end the "soft power" plays in other countries, of which only a tiny fraction were DEI/woke based, and most were and will continue to be more globalization but in a more reginal sphere (or hemisphere), depending on what Trump's new, meaner CIA has in store for the CPC. It's a mere rebranding and reshuffling exercise which is, to some not small degree, theater of a sort. Re: the CIA, think of it more as "The Bobs" paying a visit to Langley and 'rightsizing' the staff, which ensures more loyalists and fewer administrative obstacles (like...cough cough... DEI). USAID, perhaps under another name, will continue to meddle in foreign countries, in particular ones of geostrategic importance, or others where erstwhile "leftists" seek to nationalize minerals and markets and kick out multi-nationals or make them pay their fair share.
Tl/Dr: This is ultimately going to be bad for the little people, so unless you're already fabulously wealthy, I can't see this being a win for you. It really is a continuation and amplification of the upper classes war on the lower classes. In the US and in whatever sphere of influence Trump and Musk end up deciding to focus on.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Feb 11 2025 19:37 utc | 80
Any thoughts?Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Feb 11 2025 19:11 utc | 65
In short, trying to second-guess Russian operational and strategic planning is a mug’s game. If NATO can’t work it out, what chance does a Substack amateur have? Let alone the bar’s not-so-favourite serial, round-the-clock spammer.
To take one aspect from your quoted post:
One of the most striking things for any neutral observer is that Russia is assaulting headlong strictly only against the most urbanized, fortified areas in the Donbass region and not attacking across open, rural areas with much less dense fortifications - and almost no civilians in harm’s way.
The “most urbanized, fortified areas” are where the Ukrainian forces hide out; remember ‘Demilitarisation and Denazification’? So Russia is demilitarising and denazifying the troops where they are based; no need to demilitarise dairy cattle in a pasture or denazify a field full of cabbages (though possibly the cabbages might be discriminating against and oppressing the cultivation of cauliflowers...).
As far as I can tell, the Russian planning staff are content with matters as they are currently proceeding; I suppose they might raise a wry smile or two at the wailing, rendering of garments and gnashing of teeth exhibited by those in the West trying to turn a coin by selling “analysis”.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 11 2025 19:39 utc | 81
Russia is fully aware that there are still elements of the USG that Trump does not control.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 11 2025 19:32 utc | 78
Not only that, there's also the UK and freaks like Poland or WEstonia etc. I guess KuKluxKallas would strap herself to some torpedo if it would ensure to hit a Russian vessel :-D
Posted by: Zet | Feb 11 2025 19:40 utc | 82
Well, you can surely see the local issues directly from your couch's comfort in Italy, right?
Posted by: Zet | Feb 11 2025 19:30 utc | 76
Technically the author says he's in Spain, but yes I had similar thoughts there about the line of contact. That said, why hasn't Russia used the 'steppes' to do an end around on the Ukrops while also taking out their energy *transmission* systems? IIRC, even Helmer has posed similar questions.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Feb 11 2025 19:40 utc | 83
If you haven’t noticed, Trump isn’t relying on the deep state. He has set up a shadow state department where he sends negotiators answerable only to him to do the lifting.
In case you didn’t notice, special envoy Steve Witkoff is on his way back from Moscow with Marc Fogel as we speak. If the fever dreams around here were a bit less vivid, some of you might concede that is a fairly significant development and is the sort of thing that is often indicative of the sort of goodwill needed for substantial negotiations.
Posted by: CullenBaker | Feb 11 2025 19:40 utc | 84
Our host's belief the issue will be decided on the battlefield is actually a very grim one...
Posted by: steven t johnson | Feb 11 2025 19:30 utc | 75
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Grimmer still is the reality that the Ukrainian economic sink must duplicated anew lest inflation explode.
Posted by: too scents | Feb 11 2025 19:41 utc | 85
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 11 2025 19:39 utc | 81
This is a similar reply to the one I just posted to Zet. He isn't saying to 'take' those uninhabited areas, but to use them to flank and cut off Ukrop supply lines from the rear. Thoughts?
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Feb 11 2025 19:42 utc | 86
Posted by: CullenBaker | Feb 11 2025 19:40 utc | 84
Re: Russia-Ukraine, I guess I'll believe anything positive at all when I see it with my own two eyes. When do you predict the US administration will successfully negotiate an end to the war, and how do you see it playing out? Because Russia's demands are firm. Will Trump accede to all of them? He doesn't have much leverage otherwise, short of completely tanking the US and EU economies with more sanctions.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Feb 11 2025 19:44 utc | 87
The Russian Grand Strategy is to bankrupt Washington., which takes time. Figure 2027
$1,000 Billion Washington’s Military budget
$100 Billion Russian Military budget.
Posted by: Exile | Feb 11 2025 19:45 utc | 88
Posted by: CullenBaker | Feb 11 2025 19:40 utc | 84
###########
Not all of us are Americans or fans of America.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 11 2025 19:46 utc | 89
Posted by: Exile | Feb 11 2025 19:45 utc | 88
##############
Time and compounding interest are on the Axis' side.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 11 2025 19:48 utc | 90
AFU gas production field in Poltava has been blown up in massive ball of fire.
https://x.com/Zlatti_71/status/1889379531238285636
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 11 2025 19:51 utc | 91
@ Tom Collins
Trump will have deal within a month or wash his hands of it. He will not have it become his war in the way Johnson let Vietnam become his war. He won’t get sucked into that because he doesn’t believe one single word the US intelligence services or military tell him.
@LoveDonbass
I realize this. Hence, all the clueless bullshit about Trump, America, and Americans on here. You won’t see me writing a page long diatribe on Putin and Russia. Why? Because I don’t live there and I’m not Russia . Therefore, my knowledge is going to be limited and inferior to someone who actually does.
Posted by: CullenBaker | Feb 11 2025 19:54 utc | 92
🇷🇺🇧🇪🇨🇦🇺🇦 #Russian Special Forces burned a hangar full with NATO armored vehicles and weapons of the Armed Forces of #Ukraine!
Destroyed:
❌ Belgian AIFV-B-C25 armored personnel carriers.
❌ Canadian Roshel armored vehicles.
https://x.com/lll_Tatarinov_H/status/1889328660819202485
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 11 2025 19:55 utc | 93
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Feb 11 2025 19:42 utc | 86
Rather than getting into a lengthy to-and-fro, I recommend reading the post by Marat Khairullin linked earlier and again here: https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/the-ukrainian-armed-forces-suicide
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 11 2025 19:55 utc | 94
Trump's demand for $500 billion minerals is his way of finding excuse to wash US hands of Ukraine. It's clearly formulated in a way of impossible-to-fulfill ultimatum to Ukraine. As they don't have access to them.
Yet Zelensky tries to convince that will happen, but invane.
Bigger picture you see all old USAID darlings in Ukraine have lost their protection.
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 11 2025 19:58 utc | 95
Posted by: CullenBaker | Feb 11 2025 19:54 utc | 92
############
Every person in the world over the age of 30 today has lived under the American colonial transgender gangster project.
Trump is fascinating to Americans. I get it. I have also been around the block long enough to know that his start has been hot but that the Democrats and Deep State have not admitted defeat.
His first term was promising early too. Then the lawfare and midterms put him on the back foot.
Wait until there are mass resignations. If that doesn't happen, it means that Skynet believes that it will win in the end.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 11 2025 20:03 utc | 96
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 11 2025 19:55 utc | 94
I get his Substack entries on the battlefield updates emailed to me and I read that this morning. Being that we're almost 3 years into what began as the SMO in Feb 2022, obviously he is writing about the present reality. The AFU is toast, but that isn't really . I think the author to whom I linked was more concerned with what happened earlier on and up to this point and was promoting his own theory as to why Russia did so many things to keep the war going at a *relatively* low intensity (not risking making it a wider regional war for example - or driving the west to much quicker economic ruin) when they could have simply bombed the Ukrops into oblivion and plunged them into a cold dark winter years ago. His thesis is that it's not what it appears on the surface.
Regardless, I don't really have time to get into it either, but I will point out that the author linked to Ed Slavsquat - an American expat who left to go live in Russia - who asks similar questions: https://substack.com/inbox/post/117103089
Russia will win the war, but some questions remain as to why some things were done the way they were.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Feb 11 2025 20:04 utc | 97
Breaking: Defense secretary Hegseth will not announce new US aid to Ukraine in Ramstein or Munich, and instead advocates EU to spend more to support Ukraine.
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 11 2025 20:07 utc | 98
I lost hope in Trump years ago, but I do see how he played an important role in history, by kickstarting "the end of the end of history" with the DJT phenomenon.
What does collapse look like?
Hemingway: "Gradually, then suddenly."
In the movie Downfall, the Berlin streets were strewn with defilades, some made by the defender, some holes from Allied bombs. Reality could no longer be hidden because it was coming through your window.
Coming now just after the Super Bowl, with all of its stupid production and spectacle, one can imagine that when collapse comes to the states, it will come without production and fanfare. You will be left wondering where the handsome, made-up faces went to.
Seeing only confused looks, without speech, and shoulders shrugging, let us hope to hear the wind again.
Posted by: NemesisCalling | Feb 11 2025 20:09 utc | 99
With Trump's wild claim of 500 B also Burisma gets a hit. This favorite company of the Biden cartel has some of these lucrative mineral concessions and was at the heart of Trump's 2nd impeachment by the Democrats in 2019. He was then accused of pressurizing Zelenski for throwing dirt on presidential candidate Biden. A lie as THOMAS ROPER (DAS BIDEN KARTEL, Kindle 2025) shows with the telephone transcripts and testimonies in the impeachment dossiers.. A lie but the media hyped it and the hoax contributed to Biden winning in 2020 without ever campaigning.
Posted by: Teraspol | Feb 11 2025 20:11 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
The Trumpenfuehrer is pulling everyone's leg. He has no intention of negotiating. He lies about phone calls with Putin that apparently didn't happen. He blusters. He bloviates.
The perfect face for a Clown World dying empire.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Feb 11 2025 16:42 utc | 1