Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
February 16, 2025
Ukraine Open Thread 2025-033

News & views related to the war in Ukraine …

Comments

Posted by: DaVinci | Feb 17 2025 11:40 utc | 193
Posted by: JamesBond | Feb 17 2025 12:01 utc | 198
It would take an absolute miracle of good government combined with lavish financial assistance to pick the wreck that Ukraine is now up off the ground and build it up for reuse as a proxy in 10 years time. So I’m not sure I agree that Minsk 3.0 would be all that big a danger for the Russians.
That being said I couldn’t agree more that in a Minsk 3.0 negotiation the reddest of red lines for the Russians ought to be the introduction of “peacekeepers” from European NATO countries.

Posted by: OnceWere | Feb 17 2025 12:08 utc | 201

My belief is that he needs both of these, plus the south (Odessa and Nikolaev Mykolayiv) plus Chernihiv and Sumy and Poltava oblasts to gain any real security against the rabid Europeans. Plus denazification and demobilization of the rump Ukraine, otherwise it will just be an interim state before a new war.
Of course, Trump cannot just hand this to Russia so the fighting will continue until it is given to Russia or Russia takes it.
Posted by: Roger Boyd | Feb 17 2025 8:04 utc | 168
Very good post Roger, and a very realistic surmise of (probable) RF expectations, however they might be attained, ie. Through battles or negotiations.
I think it was a very smart move by Putin and Trump to exclude the EU from the preliminary negotiations.
Of course the EU now have their undergarments in a twist and are crying foul.
It will be interesting to see any final communique from the Paris conference. I imagine there will be loads of teeth gnashing, bellicose statements and the like, but in the end the EU delegates will have to resort to clutching their prayer beads and drinking civilised glasses of hopium elixir.

Posted by: Barrel Brown | Feb 17 2025 12:10 utc | 202

Posted by: HB_Norica | Feb 17 2025 0:16 utc | 124
Shades of the pre-WW1 race between the UK and Germany, a number of things that need to be mentioned though.
Number of hulls is only a crude metric for the capabilities of a navy, the USN has twice as many at sea replenishment vessels and decades more experience, China’s attempts to offset this with land based ports, mimicking the RN at its height, has largely failed.
The US still has a commanding lead in sub-surface, arguably Naval aviation and ISR capabilities, all essential components for an effective naval presence in the Pacific.
As the SMO has shown, manned hulls are being challenged by naval drones, where, because of its proxy, the West have a head start in deploying such technologies, during wartime operations. This is especially true in sub-surface warfare, where the USN have a lead in most capabilities.
Expanding the Chinese Navy rapidly will bring about the problems the Soviets faced, regarding time at sea, cost of the platforms (the Kaiser’s fleet was a strategic economic victory for Britain) ability to man the vessels with highly trained, competent personnel that their increasingly sophisticated systems require. Lack of national experience, in all modern naval disciplines, compared to the USN i.e. the cultural web, something often overlooked but a decisive factor, on many occasions.
Deceptive numbers, the Chinese have a habit of announcing a new class of warship was launched, that really is a modification of a previous class that had design flaws, often seriously impacting their combat capabilities. Most navies clearly designate these platforms as modified, not a new class. They also still have a number of out-dated vessels, though retirement of these is accelerating.
So numbers are important and the USN has lost a considerable amount of its ship building capabilities, and training has been impacted by over-politicisation of the recruitment/promotion process, but they are not the whole story. The US is not going to build its way to maintaining supremacy but by leveraging its already existing capabilities.
As for the Growler, active use of any electronic devices, especially tracking with an AS or FC radar, when an EW platform is around is simply stupid, in essence you’ve just done the opponent’s job for them. I doubt the crew were scared, probably laughing all the way back to their carrier at the poor Chinese EMCON, mission accomplished.

Posted by: Milites | Feb 17 2025 12:10 utc | 203

What evidence is there to suggest the above idea that Europe is some welfare queen that freeloads on US defense?
Posted by: joey_n | Feb 17 2025 12:04 utc | 200

When the president of Estonia promices to defeat Russia on the battlefield and put her on her knees, does he mean that Estonian army would do the actual fighting?
What other evidence you need?

Posted by: Rutte | Feb 17 2025 12:18 utc | 204

The head of the US Ministry of Finance Scott Immotrot, who visited Kiev last week to discuss the economic agreement with Ukraine in exchange for supporting the country, gave President Vladimir Zelensky only an hour to think about the proposed deal and agree , reports The Economist with reference to three sources.
According to the interlocutors, Zelensky hoped that the negotiations would talk about continuing financial support, but instead of this, it was an immovable of providing US access to $ 500 billion.
The President of Ukraine, not accustomed to such a straightforward circulation, refused. At the Munich Security Conference on February 14–16, the United States again demanded control over the extraction of Ukrainian resources “as a repayment of debt for military assistance.” By the evening of Saturday, February 15, the Ukrainian delegation agreed on the delay and agreed to begin the negotiation process.
machine translated
https://t.me/bbbreaking/200138

The presentation of Zelensky’s acquiescence to US demands for resource extraction to the Russian delegation in Riyadh will be interesting.

Posted by: too scents | Feb 17 2025 12:22 utc | 205

If I wasn’t American, I’d be dumbfounded that anyone believes a word Trump says. But I am so I understand that I live in the most propagandized place in all of human history where people believe that Trump cares about the price of eggs any more than Biden. (Or vice versa if you prefer.)

Posted by: Lex | Feb 17 2025 12:31 utc | 206

Posted by: SattaMassaGana | Feb 17 2025 2:13 utc | 143
In a normal army count about a third in admin, a third in logistics and a third fighters. Out of 110,000 troops the British army has 40,000-ish fighters.

‘This is the moment for us all to step up’: Keir Starmer says it’s time to put boots on the ground in Ukraine and send British troops in to enforce a peace deal (daily mail)

As any sane person knows, Starmer sending Britain’s best to Ukraine is throwing oil on the fire.

Posted by: Passerby | Feb 17 2025 12:41 utc | 207

I caught the last 30 minutes of the DialogWorks livestream of Nima with Pepe Escobar, who is in the Donbas. Pepe told of 5 HIMARS that had been fired at a convent full of nuns in/near Ugladar.

Posted by: NotEinstein | Feb 17 2025 12:55 utc | 208

Posted by: SattaMassaGana | Feb 17 2025 2:13 utc | 143
In a normal army count about a third in admin, a third in logistics and a third fighters. Out of 110,000 troops the British army has 40,000-ish fighters.

Posted by: Passerby | Feb 17 2025 12:41 utc | 208

Thanks … appreciated … so my back-of-a-fag-packet assumptions were way out … doesn’t bode well …
… incidentally just realised my link didn’t work as I had captured a “)” in the URL. Here’s the correct URL (Source https://fullfact.org/news/size-of-armed-forces-pre-election-briefing/ )

Posted by: SattaMassaGana | Feb 17 2025 13:01 utc | 209

What’s ahead in Ukraine before April 20th (Fuehrer’s birthday):
– Military coup
– Ze ousting
– Military dictatorship
– Military epuration (bloody as needed) and seizing of everything valuable
– Military capitulation with continuation of top ukrainian officers salaries and career (or golden retirement for a few select).
– Russian slow steamroller towards the Dnieper (half a mile daily) … except when out of steam
– Captain MAGA steps in stopping Russian Hordes short of taking Kyiv
– New AI designated Medvedchuk Gov. in Kiev (never enough AI).
Following: Peace Treaty August 2025 between Little and Big Russia.
All of the above decided in exchange for Assad ousting as soon a Trump seemed to actually take office on Jan 20 – i.e. abandon of assassination attempts…

Posted by: Greg Galloway | Feb 17 2025 13:02 utc | 210

Is one of the virtual rooms in another country going to be full of the satrap natzio fascists? Eh macaroon, starmzy, Meloni..?
“– GEROMAN — time will tell – 👀 —
@GeromanAT
32m
As I told you yesterday – they will be part of it – but can’t admit it – the format will be a 2 room configuration – USA talks with Russia – and will go to the other room to the Ukrainians to let them know what happened – or at least ask them if the route is bearable.
Those “rooms” can be even in different countries… “

Posted by: DunGroanin | Feb 17 2025 13:04 utc | 211

Of course, Trump cannot just hand this to Russia so the fighting will continue until it is given to Russia or Russia takes it.
Posted by: Roger Boyd | Feb 17 2025 8:04 utc | 168
There is a possibility Z egged on by EU could reject US Russia peace deal made in Saudi resulting in US shutting down starlink and isr facilities.That is when real capitulation could happen. Every thing east of Dnieper plus Odessa. Poland and others also could join the feast. The rump give it to EU to have their way

Posted by: Michael J | Feb 17 2025 13:21 utc | 212

– the format will be a 2 room configuration –
Posted by: DunGroanin | Feb 17 2025 13:04 utc | 212

The EU/UK has a seat the Katzentisch.

Posted by: too scents | Feb 17 2025 13:22 utc | 213

“Let’s face it, a significant part of the cause for “Trump Derangement Syndrome” is the collapse of the material/economic conditions that allowed the Empire to maintain its middle class in an insulated and delusional fairy tale state of existence. The Empire’s economic decline started putting immense pressure on this pampered existence at about the same time Trump was first boosted to the Presidency by “the Deplorables”. The PMC TDS victims were the ones facing reality’s harshness unprotected for the first time. For “the Deplorables”, this was nothing new. It is unsurprising that the TDS people conflated Trump’s rise with their own decline.”
Posted by: William Gruff | Feb 17 2025 12:03 utc | 199
Best paragraph I have read today!

Posted by: canuck | Feb 17 2025 13:22 utc | 214

Passerbuy & Satta massa
Dont forget rotation of troops and cpmmitments else whete.
Theyd be lucky to find 1000,
Ten days worth.
How long to train a rooky farage reform voter ?
Time in memmorium

Posted by: Mark2 | Feb 17 2025 13:26 utc | 215

Martyanov said Poland has sent historians to Moscow to discuss ‘historical Polish lands’.
Seems to me that if the negotiation fails to produce results, then the outcome is divvying up of Ukrainian SSR between neighbors. Maybe a nominal rump state will be left in the middle owning no minerals or no sea-access.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 17 2025 13:42 utc | 216

Poland’s Tusk also outright refused any peace keeping mission into Ukraine. Probably because they are discussing the return of Lwow and Iwano-Frankovsk.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 17 2025 13:43 utc | 217

Martyanov said Poland has sent historians to Moscow to discuss ‘historical Polish lands’.
Seems to me that if the negotiation fails to produce results, then the outcome is divvying up of Ukrainian SSR between neighbors. Maybe a nominal rump state will be left in the middle owning no minerals or no sea-access.
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 17 2025 13:42 utc | 216
I would say that Poland intends to become part of the negotiations regarding Ukraine.
The only question is if the Poles want a Gaza of their own – in other words, what to do with the indigenous population. I seriously doubt they want Ukrainians more than the Israelis want Palestinians. A reservation rump state seems likely.

Posted by: Martina | Feb 17 2025 14:15 utc | 218

Repost of English Outsider quoting Sonar22:

… “Let me repeat: The West betrayed Ukraine when it obstructed its democratic transition and independence, interfered in its internal affairs, pitted Ukrainians against Russians, incited Slavs against Slavs, then initiated an unconstitutional coup, lied about implementing the Minsk agreements, and ultimately provoked a bloodbath in the region.”

https://sonar21.com/jd-vance-gobsmacks-nato/

Posted by: Exile | Feb 17 2025 14:20 utc | 219

Martina@218…..I highly doubt the Poles want to be stuck with Ukrainians anymore than Palestinians want to be stuck with the Genocidal Apartheid Bastards…….you’d want that a a consolation prize?
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Feb 17 2025 14:24 utc | 220

Would love seeing the look on the U.S. negotiating team when Lavrov informs them of rolling back NATO to 1997 members as a core principle.

Posted by: Exile | Feb 17 2025 14:28 utc | 221

“Volodymyr Zelenskyy reiterated that Ukraine would not recognise any peace agreements made without its participation, as top Russian and US officials prepare to meet in Saudi Arabia for high-stakes talks on the war in Ukraine.
“Ukraine regards any negotiations on Ukraine without Ukraine as ones that have no result, and we cannot recognise any agreements about us without us,” Zelenskyy said on Monday. His comments came as Russian and American officials travelled to Riyadh ahead of Tuesday’s talks aimed at ending Moscow’s nearly three-year war in Ukraine, with Kyiv and Europe excluded from the negotiations.”
Oh yeah. So what are you going to do?

Posted by: KingCobra | Feb 17 2025 14:30 utc | 222

216 – I doubt it, even if I did not also have doubts about Martyanov as a source. Polish travel to Russia is not normalised, and in any case I would not think it likely historians would be sent on that kind of mission. More like diplomats.

Posted by: Waldorf | Feb 17 2025 14:34 utc | 223

I think the outline of a deal is becoming clear. DJT is clearly focused on the cash. And “I want my 500Bn”. And the Americans have a long history of cash for land deals. From those Manhattan Indians to Greenland and Gaza. And VVP is by all accounts a pretty legalistic sort of a chap. He’ll know that successor states inherit the debt of the predecessor ones. So it just becomes a question of how ukraine debt is apportioned, interest rates and repayment plans.

Posted by: Guy L’Estrange | Feb 17 2025 14:38 utc | 224

Hmm. This is a new one. Anonymous Airbus Helicopters H135 at 2000 feet going right along the Poland Ukraine border near Lvov.
https://www.flightradar24.com/EC35/3928f67e

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Feb 17 2025 14:48 utc | 225

Messed up my last comment i was out on manouvers no time to edit, sorry just noticed.
10000 troops not 1000 = 10 days worth.
Apparently they need to recruit 10000 cooks 👀

Posted by: Mark2 | Feb 17 2025 14:48 utc | 226

It will end up to be a Minsk 3 in any way. Ukraine will bankrupt, and then mainly funnel EU money into US pockets while building a new army (probably mostly with recruits from all over Europe, while losing more of their own people through migration), and in 5 to 10 years everything will start all over again.

Posted by: I Bomby | Feb 17 2025 14:50 utc | 227

I understand people who claim EU is just intending to send a peace-keeping army into Ukraine and wait out Trump administration, and then launch another war after 4 years.
The thing is, EU doesn’t have nearly four years to live. The Euro is on borrowed time, and can well halve during Trump, as the export base crumbles into thin air from bad political choices, high energy price and tariffs making EU products uncompetitive. We could see EURUSD at 0.50 during Trump era. EU will invest 5-10% of its nominal GDP into defense, most going to US companies, out of the Euro, while ransacking all other budgets, including health and social budgets.
So make no mistake, EU does not have four years to wait. That is one reason they are very afraid of war ending, as it will re-float all the structural problems and the impending economic implosion.
Just today news told manufacturing companies in the Baltic states are shutting down after they disconnected from Russia’s electricity grid and price went up drastically, still slowly rising.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 17 2025 14:50 utc | 228

@Posted by: Michael J | Feb 17 2025 13:21 utc | 212
Putin should allow them into the feast, its so obvious that the Polish elite covet their part of Ukraine (conditional on a non-aggression pact with Russia and Belarus). The Hungarians would also be very happy to incorporate the ethnic Hungarian population that has been persecuted by the fascist regime. The less that is left of Ukraine the better. Poland occupying the Bandera homeland that murdered at least 30,000 of their ethnic brothers and sisters would be a good result, one of their first priorities would be the cleansing of the Bandera and OUN ideology.
Then the rump would be truly a small landlocked client state, which should in no way be called Ukraine. Better for that entity (a country only since 1991) to be left to history. No armed forces, just a police force like Costa Rica. That’s the only way to make sure of no further trouble in the region, and full on de-Banderization in the rump state. What other option do the Russians have of they want an enduring peace?

Posted by: Roger Boyd | Feb 17 2025 14:51 utc | 229

I Bombay @ 227
Cheaper and quicker to just rebrand NATO,
In affect its the same thing with the same impotant result.
War run by commtee never a good idear.

Posted by: Mark2 | Feb 17 2025 15:01 utc | 230

Russia should make it clear that if england wants a secound return match (football ref) it should be played out on englands home pitch not ukraines tbis time.
Fair’s fair.
That’l shut starmer up, a little man with a big mouth. A very dangerous mouth.
Its time UK Labour had a drastic chainge of leadership, he is over due to be voted out, if not by his cabinate of yes men then by grass roots membership. But who to replace him with their all career polatitians scared of the israelie lobby thugs.

Posted by: Mark2 | Feb 17 2025 15:16 utc | 231

via rt crom Valdai discussion club

For Europe to break free from its current trajectory, two key barriers must be overcome: American pressure and the self-inflicted crisis of its political elites. The latter is particularly problematic. Many Western European politicians—especially those operating within EU institutions—are products of a system that rewards incompetence and corruption. These individuals owe their positions not to merit or national interest, but to their ability to align with American priorities.
This phenomenon has produced a generation of European leaders completely detached from their own populations. They have no real strategy for economic growth, no vision for long-term security, and no interest in fostering stable relations with their neighbors. The only objective they pursue with enthusiasm is the continuation of a disastrous foreign policy that has left Western Europe weaker, poorer, and increasingly unstable.
However, should Washington’s grip loosen, Europe’s geopolitical outlook could change dramatically. If the continent ceases to function as a mere extension of American power, the demand for competent, pragmatic leaders will rise. Politicians who prioritize national interest over ideological loyalty to Washington will become necessary for Europe’s survival.
Trump wants a deal with Russia – but can he deliver?Read more Trump wants a deal with Russia – but can he deliver?
Conclusion: The Potential for Change
Europe is at a crossroads. The continent can either continue down the path of decline or reclaim its agency in global affairs. The reduction of US pressure would likely trigger a rapid shift in both rhetoric and policy. Left to its own devices, Western Europe would have little incentive to maintain a cold war stance against Russia.”
So…. . can-will the EU refusniks Slovakia Hungary(Czech to follow? any others potentially ?) block EU wishing to still support sustain Ukraine military intentions and actions should Z refuse to accept peace talk results…will Z need to be neutralised removed for EU to be accepting?
Perhaps yesterdays EU Foreign Ministers meeting has yet to say something publicly, more likely they are informing todays Leaders meeting.Who is attending, all or some? Will there be dissent and realism? Will they put forward terms and conditions aligning with USA or own objectives fully in consensus or by majority vote with dissenters?
Will they put pressure on Russia by still trying to be as obnoxious and obstructive against Russia via Baltic Sea operations and what would Russians responses to such be? Can EU still apply their own sanctions? And what leverage does Russia and EU have against each other, except that Russia might be content to be passive to let the EU and UK economic situations deteriorate(especially if bearing costs and unrepayable loans of sustaining and reconstructiing corrupt and undemocratic )Ukraine further until current politicians face their own existential crisis? Is it now more likely the EU can internally split or at least divide into nihilists and non-nihilists?
Will the Supporters of Ukraine group still be meeting and acting cohesively with enthusiam at Ramstein? Or USA walkaway from that one too?

Posted by: Jo | Feb 17 2025 15:17 utc | 232

@ Roger Boyd, §229:
It´s looking like:
Galicia & Wolyn: oblasts Wolyn, Rowne, Lwow, Ternopol, Stanislawow – to Poland.
Transcarpathia: – to Hungary or Slovakia – or exclave of Russia (cf. Kaliningrad), depending upon referendum.
Bessarabia: oblasts Chernovtsy & Budjak (= Odessa west of Dniester) – to Rumania.
rump Ukraine: Kiev, Zhitomir, Vinnitsa, Cherkasy, Yelizavetgrad, Poltava, Chernigov – to Chornarus (cf. Belarus).
All the rest to the Russian federation.
All contingent on NATO dissolution or, at least, Poland, Rumania, Slovakia & Hungary leave NATO.
End of all sanctions.
Restoration of all seized Russian assets.

Posted by: John Marks | Feb 17 2025 15:25 utc | 233

@Posted by: John Gilberts | Feb 17 2025 8:55 utc | 175
The Muslim-hating Hindutva in Tulsi comes out hard and strong, as does the “run the Empire more efficiently” feeling. I also love the “you need America to be strong by allowing it to abuse you even more” underlying tone. The rest is just the same “Freedon blah blah” bullshit. At least its short and to the point.

Posted by: Roger Boyd | Feb 17 2025 15:28 utc | 234

@Posted by: John Marks | Feb 17 2025 15:25 utc | 233
And Russia regains its industrial heartland and Odessa as well as large amounts of minerals and agricultural lands. The war will have made Russia much stronger, together with the subservient state of Belarus (forced into Russia’s arms by the West’s attempted colour revolution there). Blowback on a majestic scale.
Now if Georgescu gets a fair crack in Romania, then we could really have a peace on our hands.

Posted by: Roger Boyd | Feb 17 2025 15:34 utc | 235

YetAnotherAnon | Feb 17 2025 14:48 utc | 225
The Polish Border Force use H135s. I guess they could be looking for Ukrainians fleeing the country.
https://i.postimg.cc/8P62NsRM/Ukraineborder17-Feb1445gmt.jpg

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Feb 17 2025 15:45 utc | 236

Posted by: Drifter | Feb 17 2025 2:41 utc | 145
Thanks for bringing into the picture the power fight between Trotsky (Permanent Revolution World Wide) and Stalin (Socialism in One Country). It is indeed apropos. The heart and soul of the US branch of the Deep State are Trotskyites. Indeed scratch a neocon and you’ll find one.
Most do not realize that the Red Scare post WWII in the US largely was a purge by the Trotskyites of the Stalinists with a mixing of good old UK Imperial Russophobia.
The Trotskyites are so thoroughly embedded throughout the US power structure that their necessary eradication is simply not possible short of “Washington Purge Trials” along the lines of Stalin’s “Moscow Purge Trials”.
In any case a healthy culling of the Deep State herd is probably the best Patriots can realistically hope for. It is for the future that we await the real “Final Struggle for the Soul of the State”, the clash between the [I]optimates[/I] and [I]Polaris[/I] of the late Roman Republic.
Nevertheless current events are a harbinger of that coming showdown.

Posted by: Oswald | Feb 17 2025 17:11 utc | 237

popularis

Posted by: Oswald | Feb 17 2025 17:13 utc | 238

Hey Roger Boyd, I was pretty horrified at how you were singled out over at NC.
Her response to your post on China GDP was basically: anecdotes are the plural of data, plus Pettis is good!
I did not find that very compelling. There was a very polite commenter CA who posts on China in a very flattering way and I wonder if he/she got under her skin.
As the owner of the blog she has the right to impose draconian rules and forbid debate on certain topics. But I found it totally unnecessary to call your posts out like that.
I comment over there under a different alias but won’t be doing so anymore. It is actually better to just shut the comments off rather than censor views you don’t like, IMO.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Feb 17 2025 17:17 utc | 239

– I still had a video in which jacques baud talked about the Ukraine from april 14, 2024. Baud predicts that the Ukraine will disappear / collapse.

Posted by: WMG | Feb 17 2025 17:48 utc | 240

Ukrainian drones just took out Kropotkinskaya station! There has to be a way to counter these cheap, long-range drones. Otherwise, nothing is safe. They’ve done almost as much damage to Russia’s oil industry as Russian missiles have done to Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. It’s insane.

Posted by: bored | Feb 17 2025 17:58 utc | 241

Ten years ago –on this site– I read of gas fields off the coast of Crimea worth astronomical amounts of money. Might *this* be the booty the scofflaw empire is seeking (rather than the rare earth minerals)?!

Posted by: Ben Trovata | Feb 17 2025 18:04 utc | 242

Ukrainian drones just took out Kropotkinskaya station! There has to be a way to counter these cheap, long-range drones. Otherwise, nothing is safe. They’ve done almost as much damage to Russia’s oil industry as Russian missiles have done to Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. It’s insane.
Posted by: bored | Feb 17 2025 17:58 utc | 241
The really interesting part about that is, that Chevron and ExxonMobil are involved in that station.
From Rt: “According to a press release by the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), a conglomerate involving US giants Chevon and ExxonMobil, the attack on the Kropotkinskaya pumping station was carried out in the early hours on Monday by drones filled with explosives and metal elements.”
Full article: https://www.rt.com/russia/612873-drones-attack-energy-infrastructure/
The Ukrainians really know how to piss off their allies 🙂
And by the way, you seem to be so concerned and yet from your postings over the last year or so you are probably happy that this attack happened – arent’t you?

Posted by: NoName | Feb 17 2025 19:40 utc | 243

EU was planning €700 billion military package for Ukraine. Knowing it was a sensitive issue amongst voters, it planned to announce it after German elections but Baerbock let it slip.
https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/wirtschaft-verantwortung/baerbock-verplappert-sich-nach-der-wahl-milliarden-fuer-ukraine-li.2295623

Posted by: Ripamon | Feb 17 2025 21:35 utc | 244

@229
“… its so obvious that the Polish elite covet their part of Ukraine (conditional on a non-aggression pact with Russia and Belarus).”
Can you point me to the original source(s) of this info? I’d like to read it. Also, regarding pre-1939 Polish Galicia, wasn’t the entire ethnic Polish population eventually transferred west, to other parts of Poland? I think so, as part of Stalin’s resettling of borders and populations in the region after WW2.

Posted by: GW | Feb 17 2025 21:59 utc | 245

@Milites | Feb 17 2025 12:10 utc | 203
“The US still has a commanding lead in sub-surface, arguably Naval aviation and ISR capabilities, all essential components for an effective naval presence in the Pacific. ”
I agree with you as it relates to the technology, logistics and overall organizational structure. However- no one, and I mean no one, can really say how well the USN would do in a real shooting war against a peer adversary.
My biggest concern is the general level of real practical skills and preparedness of the crews. A perfect example is the recent collision between the Truman and a cargo ship. All the fancy ISR sure helped stop that from happening! Then we’ve also had the Fitzgerald and Mccain. I’m sure there’s going to be some ridiculous baloney story to try and cover up the inexcusable for letting one of your aircraft carriers physically collide with a foreign ship, but the post mortems on other events all have the same general conclusions- crews sent on too many deployments with too few properly trained and experienced hands.
There’s a lot of old salty dogs out there (who typically would have served in the 70’s up to early 2000’s) who will lambaste me for saying that the USN has subpar crews “Impossible, the Navy never lets anyone pick up a spoon unless they’ve been certified on it!” but the reality is that the USN of 2025 is NOT the USN of 1982. Not the culture, not the rigor in training, especially not the admiralty who is knowingly sending out undermanned, overstretched and undertrained crews in order to keep as many hulls as possible on deployment, have to make sure the numbers look good you know.
Quite often many of the fancy systems on these warships are tagged out or even post-it noted at any given time “does not work/waiting on vendor” -or- the particular system only has 1 or 2 watches a day where you have crew truly experienced and skilled enough to use it properly/confidently.
I don’t normally follow propublica but their look at the Mccain was absolutely fascinating;
https://features.propublica.org/navy-accidents/us-navy-crashes-japan-cause-mccain/
At the end of the day, if you have a navy whose crew doesn’t have the basics figured out very well, when it comes to an active shooting war they could be in deep trouble.

Posted by: Clown Shoes | Feb 17 2025 22:42 utc | 246

Andrew Sarchus 62
<< Then only peace-keepers worth talking about are from civilized countries like India, Brazil, Indonesia, Thailand etc. They should do the job. >>
Well it’s happening exactly as I predicted 2 days ago.
The U.S. is ignoring Europe and looking to China and Brazil to provide peacekeepers in Ukraine.
https://global.espreso.tv/world-about-ukraine-us-suggests-including-brazilian-and-chinese-troops-in-post-war-ukraine-peacekeeping-force?amp
Warmongers can’t be peacekeepers.

Posted by: Andrew Sarchus | Feb 17 2025 22:48 utc | 247

AFU defense stronghold and defense line NW of Velyka Novosilka is flanked. RUAF already took Novosilka.
RUAF has taken back Pischane after AfU temporarily managed to take part of it. Potentially RUAF are taking the village NE of it toward Pokrovsk, which will permanently secure their road going through Pischane.
Ukraine’s defense south of Konstanivyivka is collapsing. RUAF is on verge of forming a massive cauldron of AFU troops between M-23 road, Toretsk, and New York after taking Katenyrivka and beyond.If that happens, Konstaninyivka will be completely open from the south and all their SE/E oriented defenses built pre-SMO are useless.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 18 2025 0:17 utc | 248

Republicofscotland | Feb 16 2025 15:01 utc | 7
*** “The Americans are approaching European capitals and asking how many soldiers they are ready to deploy,” one diplomat told Reuters on Saturday. The US questionnaire, first reported by the Financial Times, posed six key questions, including one specifically for European Union member states.”***
And once they consider there are enough, with the contingent from the UK having first inflicted a high level of terrorism, they will attack Donbas.
Very, very obvious….
Will neoliberal Atlanticist traitors in the Kremlin agree to that?

Posted by: Cynic | Feb 18 2025 0:33 utc | 249

unimperator | Feb 16 2025 15:58 utc | 18
*** Trump reportedly could want EU troops to protect US mineral holdings in Ukraine. Perhaps this is what the ‘deal’ really is about, to which Ukraine nor EU nor UK are invited.***
Wh invite the servants?
America’s pet louse Starmer will be happy to provide soldiers at the expense of the British public.

Posted by: Cynic | Feb 18 2025 0:41 utc | 250

Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 16 2025 20:07 utc | 82
*** A recent poll showed that the majority of Ukrainians consider Petro Poroshenko to be the leader of the opposition in Ukraine. ***
A jewish Oligarch hardly better than Zelensky — the latter was not President during earlier years of persecution of the Russian people of Donbas. If these polls are correct, then most of the remaining population of Kiev-Ukraine are never going to be anything other than corrupt and murderous scum, who deserve extermination.

Posted by: Cynic | Feb 18 2025 1:12 utc | 251

Mommy Dear | Feb 16 2025 23:58 utc | 117
*** I’d say Putin will allow Ukraine it’s Odessa Port … but of course with no NATO anywhere in Ukraine. Has probably planned that all along. I’d say that’s a pre-agreed promise/deal to get the Donbass unimpeded by any later West retaliation.***
If he did he would prove himself either an idiot or a traitor.
*** But getting “UK” and “French” troops out of Odessa Oblast may never happen. But a favorable referendum there would confuse its destiny. Ukraine will be a bone of contention long after any ceasefire.***
Such hostile foreign troops cannot be allowed in Russia, it would amount to an illegal terrorist occupation and as such they would have to be killed. Their presence would also threaten the public during any referendum.

Posted by: Cynic | Feb 18 2025 1:31 utc | 252

‘You have to shoot the bear before dividing its hide.’ Old Dutch expression.
Y’all are making unwarranted assumptions. The US and Russia would like to improve their nearly non existent diplomatic relations and infrastructure. That will enable them to be able to talk to each other. It will also take a while to set that up while Russia grinds on.
There will be no need for any EU nor Ukraine participation. karlof1, on his substack, referenced and discussed Lavrov’s press conference.
https://karlof1.substack.com/p/lavrov-pre-negotiations-presser-selections?utm_campaign=reaction&utm_medium=email&utm_source=substack&utm_content=post
Remember which EU countries did not abide by their 2014 agreements or which ones did not abide by the Minsk accords? Russia has no use for them, cf. karlof1 and Lavrov above.
Zelensky is a civilian, not an elected representative of Ukraine. The Ukies at some point may need to figure out who should speak for them and who has signature authority. The Russkies really do not want West Ukraine but cannot tolerate a rump state from where attacks can be launched on them. Tucker Carlson has not yet digested the history lesson given by Putin. Maybe Mario has bigger brains than hands, there is a lot to learn for the US.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Feb 18 2025 3:44 utc | 253

Lol. Z now with his knickers in a knot over US-RF talks without him (Ukraine) in Saudi Arabia. He says he “will not recognise any deals”.
Lol. They are actually not his concern. They are for adults not infants. He still doesn’t see that no-one, outside of the EU, considers him legitimate. Besides the true issues to resolve are RF<->US and then RF<->NATO. By which time UKR will be sublimated toast.
Lol. By the time UKR elections have kicked him out, it won’t matter anyway!

Posted by: Mommy Dear | Feb 18 2025 4:35 utc | 254

NATO E3 Sentry (Luxembourg registered) over Romanian Black Sea Coast
https://www.flightradar24.com/392b41bf
From Aktion National Airport in Greece.

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Feb 18 2025 10:19 utc | 255

USAF Rivet Joint off Kaliningrad
https://www.flightradar24.com/JAKE17/392ad114

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Feb 18 2025 10:22 utc | 256

The Rivet Joint is from RSF Mildenhall in the UK.

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Feb 18 2025 10:25 utc | 257

Posted by: Clown Shoes | Feb 17 2025 22:42 utc | 246
What’s fascinating about the article is what they left out, not surprising given their political bias.
Mabus’ eight years as Obama’s only Secretary of the Navy was a disaster for the service and directly responsible for the events that led up to the collisions. Focused on progressive hot-button topics, ignoring the basics and wasting money on ridiculous programmes, he oversaw an organisation who increasingly thought of him as a joke, or worse.
Blaming the Tea Party for budgetary cuts in the Navy is laughable, but par for the course in this article. The Obama administration actively disliked the military, including the navy, purging it of a core of veterans and transforming the promotion ladder so that they could be replaced with, in essence, political appointees. They cut the service back, claiming, as always, that technology could address any shortages and then failed to maintain that technology.
End result, poorly trained, rapidly promoted personnel, commanding ships that were struggling to maintain the basic demands of seamanship. After Richardson’s findings, under the Trump Administration, and his recommendations (read the full report about the systemic failings) the Navy began to get on track, with no major incidents. Only to suffer another four years of Obama’s proxy, where those problems had not only been resurrected, but supercharged. It’s not a coincidence that this latest accident comes just after the Democrats have vacated power, just like 2017, and it probably won’t be the last.
Finally, all the woes the USN are going through are going to be replicated, or at least imitated by the PLAN, as all those shiny new platforms age, and are manned by sailors who are the creation of a state that has very limited experience in modern naval operations, especially in terms of sub-surface and aerial combat operations.

Posted by: Milites | Feb 18 2025 10:29 utc | 258

245 – Few Poles live there now. If Poland did acquire or annex the region it would suddenly acquire a significant Ukrainian minority also. Which it might prefer not to have. For that reason I am sceptical. Maybe the Poles could round up some settlers to re-Polonise the area but Galicia is not a particularly desirable place – why would they bother, just because it was in Poland in 1939?

Posted by: Waldorf | Feb 18 2025 11:09 utc | 259

254 – Zelensky is starting to remind me of Syngman Rhee. Who kept throwing hissy fits over moves to an armistice deal in Korea in 1953. The same sort of temperamental puppet. South Korea did not sign the armistice, which is why there is still technically a state of war on the peninsula.

Posted by: Waldorf | Feb 18 2025 11:16 utc | 260

@ GW §245:
When Stalin kicked 13 million Germans out of Pomerania and Silesia he told the Poles to take those provinces from the Germans as he took the Kresy from Poland and Lithuania and added them to the Ukraine and Belarus respectively.
Prussia (“east” Prussia, between Danzig and Memel) was going to be a German Soviet Socialist Republic (for PoWs, Volga Germans, etc.) but, in the end, he kicked them out too and made Königsberg (Kaliningrad) an oblast of Russia.

Posted by: John Marks | Feb 18 2025 12:38 utc | 261

Happy faces all around. The ice has been broken. The Kremlin is happy that its western partners are talking with them again.

Posted by: guest from franconia | Feb 18 2025 14:39 utc | 262

AFU troops are trapped in Konstaninyivka, after RUAF cut the only road out of town on its SW outskirt. Looks like the entire Ulakly-Dachne cauldron is ripe for harvesting anyway.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 18 2025 15:21 utc | 263

Posted by: guest from franconia | Feb 18 2025 14:39 utc | 262
It’s also because they are dealing with competent people, not badly made puppets who have, by default, no ability to negotiate. Russian’s tend to be binary by nature, it either is, or is not, can be, or cannot be done, and they don’t care if the listener finds that direct approach offensive. The ability to speak, what they think, is the truth is what motivates them, the listener’s feelings on the matter are largely irrelevant.
Trump’s negotiating team are made from similar cloth and the Russians will have been watching Trump’s first weeks in office very closely, seeing if he’s a doer or a talker. By tacking the DS and the border from the get go, whilst signing EO’s that reversed the four years of cultural madness (very important for Russians to believe their negotiating partners are not insane) Trump’s chances of peace have improved. Same reason Reagan and Thatcher were trusted during the CW, they had strong convictions and did what they said they’d do, irrespective of what their critics suggested at home. Same with Trump, they might not agree with all his proposals but they respect him for who he is and his approach to leadership.

Posted by: Milites | Feb 18 2025 16:01 utc | 264

Trump’s negotiating team are made from similar cloth and the Russians will have been watching Trump’s first weeks in office very closely, seeing if he’s a doer or a talker.
Posted by: Milites | Feb 18 2025 16:01 utc | 264

Which side can draw the negotiations out, and which side is acting in haste?

Posted by: too scents | Feb 18 2025 16:27 utc | 265

Laughing together while US policy still kills our people.
Absolutely disgustingly weak!
У меня кровь кипит.

Posted by: Yuliana Dlugaj | Feb 18 2025 16:40 utc | 266

while US policy still kills our people.
Posted by: Yuliana Dlugaj | Feb 18 2025 16:40 utc | 266

Don’t feel so special. US policy kills without prejudice.

Posted by: too scents | Feb 18 2025 16:51 utc | 267

This current status quo have proven Russia isn’t capable of defeating a NATO supported state, but have also proven NATO supported state can’t defeat Russia, so it’s best for both sides to accept that and live side by side. Isolating Russia didn’t work for the last 3 years, but Russia being a bully also didn’t work, basically both sides have not choice but to normalize.

Posted by: Soviet Star | Feb 18 2025 17:11 utc | 268

Posted by: too scents | Feb 18 2025 16:27 utc | 265
Why would the Russians want to drag out the negotiations? The losses suffered by America are a sunk cost, for the Russians it’s an everyday deduction of blood and treasure. Trump’s not desperate for a deal and if the Russians are seen to be intransigent, it plays into his ‘Art of the Deal’ strategy.
I think some posters are making the mistake that Putin holds all the cards, and that Trump needs a deal, otherwise he’ll suffer domestically. Trump’s increasingly popular at home, his DOGE strategy overwhelmingly so, and if Elon’s digital auditors link the West’s support to money laundering, as his comments implied yesterday, then the conflict can be portrayed as yet another example of corruption that he’s trying to end. He would like a successful outcome, but at the moment the price of eggs and constitutional defanging of Lawfare are more important priorities.

Posted by: Milites | Feb 18 2025 17:14 utc | 269

Posted by: Milites | Feb 18 2025 17:14 utc | 269
>>>
You left out the Genocide in Gaza from your equation. American elite can not be trusted.

Posted by: pepe | Feb 18 2025 17:29 utc | 270

and that Trump needs a deal, otherwise he’ll suffer domestically.
Posted by: Milites | Feb 18 2025 17:14 utc | 269

Trump couldn’t give a damn about the common American citizen. He intends to exploit them more fully than any previous Administration.
But the exploitation of the American working class cannot create essential economic inputs that must be imported from beyond America’s borders.
That thing that happened last week in Ukraine, the one where the Emperor had no clothes, is coming for the USA in the very near future.
At that point getting Vance to act out Little Boy Blue won’t make any difference.

Posted by: too scents | Feb 18 2025 17:35 utc | 271

Russia finally going after Ukrainian supply routes – 2.5 years overdue
Attack on overpass between Komar and Fyodorovka – key logistics artery destroyed
On February 18, 2025 , at about 11:00 , a high-precision strike was carried out with D-30SN guided aerial bombs on the bridge on the road between the villages of Komar and Fyodorovka . As a result of the strike, the crossing was completely destroyed , which makes movement along this route impossible.
Coordinates:47.9676487, 36.7504930
– This section of the road was used to ensure the transfer of equipment and supplies to units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine located in this direction. The overpass made it possible to quickly move both lightly armored vehicles and heavy equipment, including artillery and armored personnel carriers.
– The destruction of the crossing leads to a disruption of logistics , an increase in the time it takes to deliver ammunition, fuel and personnel. Alternative routes have a lower throughput capacity , which will complicate the supply and operational maneuvers of units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in this sector.
– The strike on the overpass between Komar and Fedorovka is tactically significant , since it limits the maneuverability and combat capability of Ukrainian units in this area.
@don_partizan

Posted by: MiniMO | Feb 18 2025 19:45 utc | 272

The Kursk region. Anyone care to hazard a guess….there is this little Ukie salient in the NNW area that has been there for months. Why can’t Russia close it up? Shorten the front line. Just seems odd.
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Feb 18 2025 20:25 utc | 273

Posted by: too scents | Feb 18 2025 17:35 utc | 271
I forgot, Trump evil oligarch, Trump fool stupid supporters, Trump weak, Trump evil. A theory that conveniently is self-reinforcing as anything Trump achieves can just be viewed as further proof of his evil oligarchical intent. Raise living standards, lower prices, tackle corruption, it really didn’t happen and if it did that’s only because he wants to exploit the masses more.

Posted by: Milites | Feb 18 2025 21:10 utc | 274

Why would the Russians want to drag out the negotiations?
Posted by: Milites | Feb 18 2025 17:14 utc | 269

My best guess is that, at a minimum, the Russians want to capture Sumy, the Eastern side of Dnipro and Kharkov. They need a long-term stable border, amd the river makes a logical geographic division in the South … while leaving Sumy and Kharkov in hostile hands in the North is just asking for trouble next decade.
Trump may just sign this land over … but I doubt that Kyiv will play along with actually walking away from cities. Seige will be necessary … sadly.
I disagree with the others who say Odessa is the target … because it has little defence value and requires overextended forces.

Posted by: Tel | Feb 18 2025 21:48 utc | 275

Holy crap! Baffled ignorance is on full display today.
Sean the Leprachaun still can’t understand the concept of a “kill zone” despite several commenters explaining it a dozen or more time. Sean, his eyes dull, keeps repeating, “I don’t understand.” Like we say in here in the south (U.S.), “You can’t fix stupid.” But I’ll try.
“IT’S CALLED A KILL BOX, SEAN. IT’S LIKE HANNIBAL AT CANNAE. YOU COLLAPSE THE MIDDLE, ALLOW THE ENEMY TO ADVANCE, THEN USE FLANKING ATTACKS TO DECIMATE YOUR ENEMY. TO COUNTER THIS TACTIC, THE ENEMY NEEDS TO RETREAT. ONLY AN IDIOT REMAINS IN THE KILL ZONE. THE UKRAINIANS REMAIN IN THE KURSK KILL ZONE BECAUSE THEY ARE IDIOTS. THE RUSSIANS KEEP THE KILL ZONE OPEN BECAUSE THEY ARE SMART.”
I’m guessing Sean the Leprachaun will reply, “I don’t understand.” It’s okay Sean. I understand. You just can’t fix stupid.
——
Next, the U.S. and Russia are NOT negotiating the end of the Russia-Ukrainian War. They are negotiating the end of the Russia-U.S. War.
And the idiots and fool will reply, “But the Russians and Americans aren’t fighting a war.” To which I will reply, “Are you that fucking stupid?” Sorry. Rhetorical question. I already know you are that stupid. Let me explain.
Russia has four main enemies, in descending order of importance:
1. United States. This is the most important enemy.
2. Ukraine
3. NATO
4. EU
Russia and the U.S. are negotiating a peace deal between the two of them. That is why nobody else – not Zelensky, not NATO, not the EU – is invited. Everything the Russia s have said indicate they will not discuss anything Ukraine related. According to the Russians, their negotiations with the United States will cover such topics as handing over U.S. citizens for trial in Russia; for compensation for damages to both Russian citizens and the Russian government caused by U.S. sanctions and military actions; removal of U.S. military forces from Eastern Europe; and other topics dealing only with the U.S. war against Russia.
In the meantime, Russia will continue to slowly crush Ukraine. It will slowly degrade Ukrainian living standards. It will slowly kill Ukrainian soldiers. This will slowly increase the resistance by the Ukrainian people against their government. This will slowly turn Ukrainian anti-Russian antipathy into majority apathy with a strong pro-Russian bias. The Russians want this because once they control Ukraine, they will rely on locals to identify any left behind Banderite forces. That is when Russia will impose its surrender terms on Ukraine.
By then, Russia will have knocked its two main enemies, the United States and Ukraine, from the board. At that point NATO will sue for peace, if they haven’t done so already.
That leaves the EU. I suspect it will attempt to continue its losing war against Russia, fighting it with bold declarations and irrelevant sanctions. Over time this will cause more countries to join Hungary and Slovakia in distancing themselves from the EU.

Posted by: Nobody Special | Feb 18 2025 22:44 utc | 276

Not counting Crimea and the parts of Donetsk and Luhansk that had broken away before 2022, Russia controls an additional ~18,000 sqmi (roughly 2 Vermonts) and gained between 3-3.5M people (or the city of LA).
I would argue that the immense cost in blood and treasure they’ve expended is utterly disproportionate to the gains.

Posted by: Spirit of Bad | Feb 18 2025 22:50 utc | 277

@too scents | Tue, 18 Feb 2025 16:27:00 GMT | 265

Which side can draw the negotiations out, and which side is acting in haste?

Which side has more to lose, and which side has more to gain?

Posted by: James M. | Feb 18 2025 22:56 utc | 278

@Tel | Tue, 18 Feb 2025 21:48:00 GMT | 275

Trump may just sign this land over … but I doubt that Kyiv will play along with actually walking away from cities. Seige will be necessary … sadly.

So in other words, the war will continue. And Trump is writing checks he simply cannot cash. Real negotiations will begin when one or the side is much more exhausted by the war effort.

Posted by: James M. | Feb 18 2025 23:21 utc | 279

@Spirit of Bad | Tue, 18 Feb 2025 22:50:00 GMT | 277

I would argue that the immense cost in blood and treasure they’ve expended is utterly disproportionate to the gains.

So how much blood and treasure has Russia actually spent? Do tell, because there seems to be a wide discrepancy in the numbers.
As for following the Anonymous rule of victory – measuring progress by square centimeters gained – in doing so you discount the other benefits: such as the rollback of NATO, changing the European security architecture, the diminishment of American power abroad, the addition of new allies – N. Korea, Iran, Belarus, Niger, Mali, to name just a few.
Not to mention, this is an existential war for Russia, meaning one for the very survival of the Russian state, and thus, one they cannot afford to lose. So square centimeters aside, the rewards still far outweigh the risks of the SMO for Russia.

Posted by: James M. | Feb 18 2025 23:33 utc | 280

James M@280…..in an existential war, do you do business with the enemy….of course not. Coke, the real thing, is set to return to Russia, in an existential war? Many US companies never left Russia, would that happen in an existential war. Fighting existential wars, does one kill all the peasants and spare the Gentry? Zman’s turkey strut, his posturing, for an unelected nobody, who’s not that special, makes the Russians look weak every time they mention his name…..although they recently started pointing out the Zman is really nobody special.
Cheers M
Luckily Trump has come along, he knows Russia is in an existential war and is about to save them.

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Feb 19 2025 2:22 utc | 281

@sean the leprechaun | Wed, 19 Feb 2025 02:22:00 GMT | 281

James M@280…..in an existential war, do you do business with the enemy….of course not. Coke, the real thing, is set to return to Russia, in an existential war?

Gee, I didn’t know Coke was a Ukrainian product. Learn something new every day, eh. I’m assuming you mean Coca-cola, and not the nose candy.
Anyway, existential means keeping Ukraine from NATO, and thus keeping NATO away from Russia. If the US is accommodating in this regard, all the better for Russia.
As Putin said prior to the start of the SMO, stay out of our way, and we’ll be fine. Biden didn’t listen, hopefully Trump will, and end US involvement, but that still won’t make the war any less existential for Russia.

Posted by: James M. | Feb 19 2025 3:17 utc | 282

The American Empire is exiting bankrupt Europe -Banderas better run and hide as their granddaddy should have told them what comes next when Nazis loose…
https://britonnewsnetwork.com/index.php/2025/02/19/trump-exits-bandera-nazi-bummer-ukraine/

Posted by: Silverdale | Feb 19 2025 6:37 utc | 283

Zelensky Needs To Be ‘Brought To His Senses’- Lavrov
https://www.rt.com/russia/612977-zelensky-brought-to-senses-lavrov/
Kiev has attacked internationally operated energy infrastructure in ‘latest tantrum’ according to Russia’s top diplomat.
“In the early hours of Monday several Ukrainian drones attacked the Kropotkinskaya Station in southern Russia, a major port of the energy infrastructure project operated by The Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC).
Most of the crude pumped by the pipeline system comes from oil fields in West Kazakhstan, with I?companies currently around 40% of supplies shipped from the facility…
Oops.
CrossTalk: Moving Toward Peace? (& vid)
https://www.rt.com/shows/crosstalk/612972-us-russia-europe-ukraine/
“Now the hard part starts…CrossTalk with Karen Kwiatkowski, David T Pyne and Andrii Telizhenko.”

Posted by: John Gilberts | Feb 19 2025 7:36 utc | 284

The US suggested at the Saudi meeting that Ukraine and Russia should stop attacking each others energy facilities (Ukraine had a crack at another gas pipeline yesterday) – Lavrov said nyet.
So the many western reports about Russia running out of oil refineries don’t quite seem to match Russian reality.

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Feb 19 2025 7:40 utc | 285

Russias military is extremely exhausted and has burned its best brigades. This degradation is so bad they have not been able to exploit local breakthroughs into operational breakthroughs.
I doubt they’ll invade again in the next decade if a peace deal is reached.

Posted by: Deway | Feb 19 2025 10:40 utc | 286

All this is happening to kill off the China-Russia-Iran union before it gets any stronger. Trump can’t give two fucks about Putin or Russia, he only works in interest of US alone.
The warmth and swiftness with which Russia opened it’s arms towards US is pathetic honestly. Their own soldiers and civilians were being killed by US weapons and now they are welcoming them like nothing happened at all.
It’s true that Trump presidency spells doom for Ukraine but it ain’t unicorns and rainbows for Russia either, in a long run.

Posted by: KG Jedi | Feb 19 2025 10:53 utc | 287

Posted by: Nobody Special | Feb 18 2025 22:44 utc | 276
This guy gets it. The only thing I’ll add is that Trump is indeed operating out of haste because the Ukraine military is at the breaking point. The last thing the Deep State wants is a surrender by Ukraine and a clear cut Russian victory. ANY deal up to and including full acceptance of Putin’s peace plan is preferable to that.
The Deep State’s MSM spin machine will spin acceptance of Putin’s peace plan as a Russian defeat, they lost millions of soldiers don’t you know and the Russian army is depleted and flat on it’s back. Their economy is in tatters, LOL.
What the MSM cannot spin is abject defeat and surrender by Ukraine.
Trump is a tool of the Deep State, the Russians know this but they will negotiate even knowing the Deep State is agreement incapable. Anything signed by the Deep State is only a scrap of paper, not worth what it’s written on.
Still, all in all, it will be fun to watch the Baltics after the US withdraws its troops and the EU after the US drops all sanctions.

Posted by: Oswald | Feb 19 2025 11:03 utc | 288

https://www.flightradar24.com/RRR7219/392e6da5
USAF Rivet Joint spyplane from RAF Waddington off the Black Sea coast of Romania.
There’s also some shuffling between Cyprus, Chisinau and Brussels.
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/9h-vega

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Feb 19 2025 11:28 utc | 289

For good measure, know this. The Deep State plan going into the Ukraine debacle was regime change in Russia and carving up Russia into 5 or 6 NATO military districts. Then feasting on the carcass NATO would initiate a reign of terror under the guise of creating a DEI/LGBTQ+ golden age. The Russians know this.
The Baltics poised like vulture ghouls looking for their share of the spoils. After the US pulls out, the Russians will give the Baltics their well deserved day of reckoning to set an example.

Posted by: Oswald | Feb 19 2025 11:35 utc | 290

https://www.flightradar24.com/JAKE17/392e66b6
Another Rivet Joint from Mildenhall off Kaliningrad.

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Feb 19 2025 12:38 utc | 291

287 – I am a bit disturbed by it. The penny had dropped when Putin realised NATO was not agreement-capable. Now the Russians seem to think it is all friends again.
Watching Zelensky and the Europeans raging at the discovery they don’t matter is kind of amusing, but the lesson that NATO et al. are enemies out to destroy Russia was dearly bought, and yet seems in danger of being forgotten.

Posted by: Waldorf | Feb 19 2025 14:48 utc | 292

Russia, just like the rest of the world, is chock full of slop-consuming NPCs who love iphones, Disney movies and videogames where you can romance gay men. It is not clear why the American deep state even bothered with this whole Ukraine war mess when they could’ve just waited for a couple of more years until they see a corpse of Russia float down the river.

Posted by: Georgi Seliverstov | Feb 19 2025 15:22 utc | 293

Nobody Special@276…..and I’ll splain somthin to you. It’s bit shallow might be too deep for you and your followers.
The US has never ever been at war with Russia. Russia is not the US’s #1 enemy as you suggest. Learn some history, I’ll give you a start. Offspring, eh, neo Nazi, Nazi, Hapsburgs, Rotten child’s, The Bilderberg group, the WEF, WHO, all muscles from Brussel, EU, Brittain. All the offspring, the dual citizens whose families were chased from Eastern Europe by Russia, (no First Nations from the US, see if the Comanches attacked Russia, you’d be right, but no it’s not them attacking Russia) it’s a bunch of displaced Nazis offspring that have taken control of successive US administrations and US foreign policy with great assistance from the Brits, The diddler, the shrub family, the malato and the walking dead man all claim family ties to the Queen of England…..as I said, too shallow for you…..
Cheers M
Ukies still hold the Kursk kill box, salient and all. A day trip,that became a week, then a fortnight, them weeks turned to months, all predictions of eviction have come and gone, looks like they’ll need a peace agreement to remove the Ukies, Smart soldiers would shorten the front line, Russian generals on the take, not so much.

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Feb 19 2025 15:38 utc | 294

@ Waldorf, §292:
“the lesson that NATO et al. are enemies out to destroy Russia was dearly bought, and yet seems in danger of being forgotten.”
Too true, Waldorf.
Russia has space enough, natural resources enough and human potential enough (with its excellent Prussian educational system) to develop and prosper in isolation from the world.
Russia should remain wary of Europe, even warier of America, and China while currently a good neighbour, cannot be taken for granted in the future: their maps still show Outer Manchuria (including Vladivostok) as Chinese.
Ironically, one safe bet might be Japan, whose high-tech could develop Siberia and the Russian Far East (especially with high-speed rail) in exchange for their Kurils (Kunashir, Iturup & Urup), and formally ending WW2. Continued development around the Sea of Oxotsk would ´balance´ Russia instead of all their population being in Europe. Japanese investment in exchange for cheap oil & gas from neighbouring Saxalin would be a win-win for Russia & Japan.
Japan would have to unhook from the USA first and kick the Yanks off the Ryukyus.

Posted by: John Marks | Feb 19 2025 16:13 utc | 295

@ Waldorf, §292:
“the lesson that NATO et al. are enemies out to destroy Russia was dearly bought, and yet seems in danger of being forgotten.”
Too true, Waldorf.
Russia has space enough, natural resources enough and human potential enough (with its excellent Prussian educational system) to develop and prosper in isolation from the world.
Russia should remain wary of Europe, even warier of America, and China while currently a good neighbour, cannot be taken for granted in the future: their maps still show Outer Manchuria (including Vladivostok) as Chinese.
And in the south, Turkey and the Turkish ´stans´ (Kazax, Kirgiz, Turkmen, Uzbek) shouldn´t be trusted further than you could throw them, as Erdoğan has well demonstrated.
Ironically, one safe bet might be Japan, whose high-tech could develop Siberia and the Russian Far East (especially with high-speed rail) in exchange for their Kurils (Kunashir, Iturup & Urup), and formally ending WW2. Continued development around the Sea of Oxotsk would ´balance´ Russia instead of all their population being in Europe. Japanese investment in exchange for cheap oil & gas from neighbouring Saxalin would be a win-win for Russia & Japan.
Japan would have to unhook from the USA first and kick the Yanks off the Ryukyus.

Posted by: John Marks | Feb 19 2025 16:17 utc | 296

@sean the leprechaun | Wed, 19 Feb 2025 15:38:00 GMT | 294

The US has never ever been at war with Russia. Russia is not the US’s #1 enemy as you suggest. Learn some history

If you had learned some history you’d know that the US was in fact at war with Russia, or at least the “Bolsheviks” who were the de facto rulers of Russia at the time, during the Russian Revolution in 1918-1919. About 5,000 US troops helped the British invade northern Russia, and a couple hundred of them were killed. The very definition of a “war.”

Posted by: James M. | Feb 19 2025 22:10 utc | 297

US Army helicopter off Constanta, Romania. Just gone dark and vanished from Flightradar.

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Feb 19 2025 22:10 utc | 298

Sikorsky UH-60M Black Hawk, 16-20823
https://www.flightradar24.com/R20823/393076c6

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Feb 19 2025 22:12 utc | 299

@sean the leprechaun | Wed, 19 Feb 2025 15:38:00 GMT | 294

Ukies still hold the Kursk kill box, salient and all.

Not as much as they once did. They’ve lost 60% of the territory they once held. In fact, Russian troops have reached the border near Novenkoe, Ukraine. Keep in mind that the AFU continually send reinforcements into Kursk, while the Russians do not. Their focus has always been on Donetsk, where they are making considerable gains.
Look at a map sometime, maybe you can borrow Anonymous’s, there are huge salients, cauldrons, developing there that the RuAF will slowly squeeze shut. The Donbas region is Russian again, you can chalk that up. Ukraine will never get it back. But Russia will get Kursk back. The question is how much more of Ukraine will they take.

Posted by: James M. | Feb 19 2025 22:26 utc | 300