Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
February 2, 2025
Ukraine Open Thread 2025-023

News & views related to the war in Ukraine …

Comments

What DeepSeek Says About Nuland’s Role In Ukraine War
How’s that for a shift in narrative? This actually assumes Americans have some understanding about Victoria Nuland. This was not immageanable 2 weeks ago.

Posted by: frithguild | Feb 5 2025 5:04 utc | 301

Posted by: Banishedandbackagain | Feb 4 2025 22:51 utc | 294
You use sub-serious shitpost channel as source that published “claim” (I don’t think they claimed anything seriously, rather shitposting for teh lulz) with image that has DNR flag in it (indicating the image originates from time before Russia joined the war). What is the thing that would be “denied” here?

Posted by: Kalevi Luumuhillo | Feb 5 2025 8:16 utc | 302

Missile strikes on AFU reinforcements in Sumy, probably intended to be inserted to Kursk cauldron.

Attack on Ukrainian Armed Forces positions in Sumy: powerful explosions and fire recorded, reports @don_partizan
Less than half an hour ago, a powerful explosion was recorded in Sumy, after which an intense fire was observed at the site of the impact. Emergency services arrived in the area of ​​the impact and increased activity of rescue units is noted. Ukrainian sources also report the possibility of repeated launches.
According to preliminary data, the attack could have been directed at the concentration sites of the 80th Airborne Assault Brigade, which are stationed in the villages of Stetskovka and Verkhneye Peschanoye. This unit is actively involved in combat operations in the Kursk direction.
Area coordinates: 50.9828184, 34.7739244
Currently, the details of the strike are being clarified.
https://t.me/Zornkrieger/72365

Iskander-M OTRK
❗️Yesterday at 22:54 monitoring resources reported the sounds of explosions in the Sumy region after the previously announced ballistic threat 🚀.
📹Later, a nondescript photo of a distant glow without any details appeared online.
Here’s what actually happened:
➡️ Russian aerial reconnaissance aircraft have discovered a large concentration of equipment and manpower from the 516th battalion of the 1st separate special forces brigade of the Territorial Army of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the area of ​​the settlement of Stetskovka in the Sumy region.
➡️ An Iskander was immediately sent to the identified coordinates, and it hit the target exactly.
According to information from a 🥷 source, the strike destroyed:
🟠 ammunition depot (burning heavily);
🟠 Armoured vehicle- 23 units;
🟠 All-terrain vehicles – 15 units;
🟠 cargo vehicles – 10 units;
🟠 up to 130 Ukrainian servicemen.
Asbery’s Opinion: Again these are the numbers being reported not our numbers. I tend to be more conservative.
@Slavyangrad (http://t.me/Slavangrad)
“>https://t.me/Slavyangrad/118808

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 5 2025 11:46 utc | 303

You saw what Israel did to Iran with an air strike force. All over in one night.
Thats what happens if America steps into Ukraine, Russia folds in one night like Iran did. And then, shortly after, Russia publically says it won’t retaliate to the US like Iran did with Israel.
Posted by: Banishedandbackagain | Feb 4 2025 21:38 utc | 287

Please, tell us what did Israel do with ‘it’s’ air force? Destroyed 30 S-300 equivalent launchers as reported by the western media? Flew jets above Tehran dropping bombs? One must be seriously retarded to believe that.
Realistically they hit one radar and damaged another in western Iran, using Iraqi air space, launched well beyond their range. Even this required massive logistical support of Nato and continuous radar surveillance. And btw, there was no Israeli jet above Tehran nor did they drop any bombs. These strikes are very negligible in terms of damage. In contrast to the Israeli performance of Patriot PAC or David’s Sling AD systems, which actually were hit with pinpoint ballistic strikes from Iran. They shot down a lot of those slow moving rockets but there are videos showing entire BM salvos hitting the ground intact.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 5 2025 11:57 utc | 304

It’s early: so the Apartheid States attack on Iran didn’t happen due to the lack of photographic evidence to back the claim. That’s just Hazelnuts……
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Feb 5 2025 14:44 utc | 305

Putin knows his economy is souring and he is eager for the war to end. The fact he is willing to negotiate before he could even reclaim Kursk shows he is desperate.

Posted by: ferus gyps | Feb 5 2025 14:57 utc | 306

reply to 287, 307
Assertions made without facts in evidence.
There are reports that Russia is moving towards Kherson and capturing Dniper islands in that direction.

Posted by: Eighthman | Feb 5 2025 16:02 utc | 307

Explosion reported at the draft office in Kamianets-Podilskyi, Khmelnytskyi Oblast of Ukraine.
This is the 3rd explosion linked to army recruiting offices in Ukraine within the past 5 days.
Army draft officer was also shot dead last week in Poltava region.

https://x.com/talkrealopinion/status/1887114142558941361

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 5 2025 16:06 utc | 308

I believe we might have to start another un/rhetorical question going. Where are the negotiations?

Posted by: boneless | Feb 5 2025 16:54 utc | 309

In ressponse to

I believe we might have to start another un/rhetorical question going. Where are the negotiations?
Posted by: boneless | Feb 5 2025 16:54 utc | 310

The negotiations are taking place on the battlefield at this time.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 5 2025 17:12 utc | 310

Posted by: Newbie | Feb 5 2025 2:05 utc | 299
Because African and Asian workers from one failed state with no electricity are just dying to emigrate to another failed state (and a much colder one) with no electricity!
Brilliant, now that’s a victory plan!
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Feb 5 2025 4:19 utc | 301
That part was a joke, though tasteless might be accurate, but the main point I was pushing was that they are missing 3 million men, which is the estimate I have been mentioning for AFU casualties (dead or maimed).

Posted by: Newbie | Feb 5 2025 17:59 utc | 311

In Kharkiv, a man who committed arson on the railway will be tried
A 40-year-old man on the Internet found a part-time job with Russians. He carried out arsons as tasks, and for each time received 9 thousand hryvnias
This is reported by the Kharkiv Regional Prosecutor’s Office, reports RegioNews .
According to law enforcement officers, a 40-year-old man in Kharkiv damaged relay cabinets of alarm systems, centralization and blocking, which ensure the operation of automation and serve for the safety of railway traffic. To do this, he used a solution to light a fire.
The man broke open the metal doors of relay cabinets with a crowbar, doused the electrical equipment of the railway with the specified liquid and set it on fire. After that, he took photos and videos of the consequences, and sent a “report” to his Russian curator. The invaders need these diversions to stop the supply of equipment and ammunition for the Defense Forces in the Kharkiv direction.
“It is established that the defendant recently arrived in Kharkiv and lived with his fiancee. Before that, he lived in Odessa, and even earlier in Lviv. In addition, now the man is brought to criminal responsibility in Odessa for the sale of narcotic drugs and has already served a sentence for attempted premeditated murder and robbery, ” the prosecutor’s office said.
The Russian special service found a resident of Kharkiv region through ads on a job search site. For one arson, he received about 9 thousand hryvnias.
“The accused will be tried in Ordzhonikidze District Court of Kharkiv. He faces imprisonment for a term of fifteen years or life imprisonment, with confiscation of property, ” the law enforcement officers noted.
We will remind, earlier in Kiev , the SBU detained two groups of arsonists . It is known that they set fire to a service pickup truck of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Five SUVs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the National Guard of Ukraine, as well as a relay cabinet belonging to Ukrzaliznytsia, were also burned.
It was also reported that a resident of the Uman region will be tried for sabotage on the railway and energy facilities. The man performed the tasks of the invaders: he set fire to transformer substations, which are important, in particular, for defense purposes.

https://regionews.ua/ukr/news/harkovshchina/1738768021-u-harkovi-suditimut-cholovika-yakiy-robiv-pidpali-na-zaliznitsi (via translation add-on.)
Photo here: https://postimg.cc/67qzVbjj

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 5 2025 18:17 utc | 312

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 5 2025 11:46 utc | 304
Area coordinates: 50.9828184, 34.7739244
So just 300 m NW of Verkhneye Peschanoye and same distance from the main road.
Just shy of 6 kms from sumy city center proper
If Iskander it was probably
1. time sensitive
2. AFU probably has some significant AD there, it’s not even 50 kms from korenovo, glide bombs would do the trick if they could be safely launched (lately I have seen less FABs or is it me?)
3. Unless the target included nato bonus where RF often likes to overkill as a matter of principle

Posted by: Newbie | Feb 5 2025 18:19 utc | 313

Times Radio is still being used as a propaganda tool for the UK / US / NATO against Russia.
Use this URL in your browser:
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=times+radio

Posted by: WMG | Feb 5 2025 18:24 utc | 314

And just like that, Elensky appears as a madman who wants a nuclear exchange, while fearing an audit of aid received, all the while avoiding elections. All this at the same time as USAID in suspense and narrative management (information ecosysyem) missing.

Posted by: frithguild | Feb 5 2025 18:28 utc | 315

Lengthy article here: https://eadaily.com/en/news/2025/02/05/usaid-everything-panic-began-in-kiev-at-the-grantoed-media-exchange delving into the impact of USAID funding on Ukrainian media.
A snip:

And now we will give the floor to Andrey (name changed), a long-term employee of Gosteleradio of Ukraine. He says that there has never been such confusion in the ranks of journalists and editors.
— Employees of various channels and publications are constantly calling us, panicking, demanding that we write an official letter to Trump demanding that the funding of their organizations be restored. They send us autobiographies in batches describing their “achievements for America” so that we can also attach them to the letter. This is just crazy! I had no idea that such a huge number of media people were associated with USAID! Gosteleradio is also connected, here all the projects are Nazi for USAID money. True, we receive funding from the state budget, but recently I was told that this article is funded by USAID. But these are multimillion-dollar projects about the “Russian threat”, “father Bandera”, “beautiful America and Europe”, etc. In general, almost all propaganda of Ukrainians and “amerodemocracy” is based on USAID money — both in state media and in private! Without them, it can just burst like a soap bubble!

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 5 2025 18:37 utc | 316

*** But these are multimillion-dollar projects about the “Russian threat”, “father Bandera”, “beautiful America and Europe”, etc. In general, almost all propaganda of Ukrainians and “amerodemocracy” is based on USAID money — both in state media and in private! Without them, it can just burst like a soap bubble!
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 5 2025 18:37 utc | 317
Nice info!
The interesting discussion may relate to what is the dividing line when USAID type activity crosses the line into interference with the Yalta-Potsdam arcitecture. The Trump administration has an incentive to limit regime destabilizing activity and neocons, Democrats and in general big government types do not want that. A treaty the enshrine whatever that line can be, blessed by treaty aprticipants (RF) is an outside of the box solution. Yes, 2/3 of the Se ate must approve, but who wants to appear to be in bed with a uclear war desiring, illigitimate strongman who is on the take. According to Doctorow, the Kremlin is pretty focused on the USAID tpoic. Just sayin’.

Posted by: frithguild | Feb 5 2025 19:02 utc | 317

Missile strikes on AFU reinforcements in Sumy, probably intended to be inserted to Kursk cauldron.
Attack on Ukrainian Armed Forces positions in Sumy: powerful explosions and fire recorded, reports @don_partizan
Less than half an hour ago, a powerful explosion was recorded in Sumy, after which an intense fire was observed at the site of the impact. Emergency services arrived in the area of ​​the impact and increased activity of rescue units is noted. Ukrainian sources also report the possibility of repeated launches.
According to preliminary data, the attack could have been directed at the concentration sites of the 80th Airborne Assault Brigade, which are stationed in the villages of Stetskovka and Verkhneye Peschanoye. This unit is actively involved in combat operations in the Kursk direction.
Area coordinates: 50.9828184, 34.7739244
Currently, the details of the strike are being clarified.
https://t.me/Zornkrieger/72365

Iskander-M OTRK
❗️Yesterday at 22:54 monitoring resources reported the sounds of explosions in the Sumy region after the previously announced ballistic threat 🚀.
📹Later, a nondescript photo of a distant glow without any details appeared online.
Here’s what actually happened:
➡️ Russian aerial reconnaissance aircraft have discovered a large concentration of equipment and manpower from the 516th battalion of the 1st separate special forces brigade of the Territorial Army of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the area of ​​the settlement of Stetskovka in the Sumy region.
➡️ An Iskander was immediately sent to the identified coordinates, and it hit the target exactly.
According to information from a 🥷 source, the strike destroyed:
🟠 ammunition depot (burning heavily);
🟠 Armoured vehicle- 23 units;
🟠 All-terrain vehicles – 15 units;
🟠 cargo vehicles – 10 units;
🟠 up to 130 Ukrainian servicemen.
Asbery’s Opinion: Again these are the numbers being reported not our numbers. I tend to be more conservative.
@Slavyangrad (http://t.me/Slavangrad)
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/118808
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 5 2025 11:46 utc | 304
Marty/smoothie has a video, apparently.

Posted by: Newbie | Feb 5 2025 19:45 utc | 318

And you fall into the same trap as our dear friend/doormat @Anonymous, judging progress purely by the land take, disregarding the collapse in civil order within Ukraine, the constitutional illegitimacy of the Kiev junta or the anaemic state of its army.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 3 2025 22:18 utc | 222

If it’s “anaemic”, then why hasn’t Russia moved the frontline significantly westward since 2023? Why haven’t they captured Kiev?
In a few weeks, it will be the three-year anniversary of this war…I’m sorry, “special military operation”. That Moscow hasn’t crushed a smaller, weaker state right on its doorstep is utterly pathetic.

Posted by: ReinhardVonSiegfried | Feb 5 2025 20:42 utc | 319

Why haven’t they captured Kiev?
Posted by: ReinhardVonSiegfried | Feb 5 2025 20:42 utc | 320
################
When did the Russians ever say that they wanted to capture Kiev?
They have captured the mineral resources of Ukraine and secured Crimea.
They have killed many thousands of Nazi troops and annihilated NATO equipment while building the most impressive military-industrial base in the world, and managing to decouple from the dangerous and queer globohomo financial system.
Stop pursuing strawman arguments and stick to the record.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 5 2025 20:51 utc | 320

why hasn’t Russia moved the frontline

Posted by: ReinhardVonSiegfried | Feb 5 2025 20:42 utc | 320
Where exactly is the “frontline”?
Is it the Ukrainian police stations and TCC offices suffering bomb explosions?
Is it the grenades being thrown at the homes of TCC officers?
Is it the troop mustering points in Sumy obliterated by Iskanders?
Is the “frontline” at Yuzhmash (nobody is letting on about that)?
Is the “frontline” at every single signal post, relay cabinet or point motor on the Ukrainian rail system?
Update your military thinking from the year 1915…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 5 2025 21:49 utc | 321

Addendum:

In a few weeks, it will be the three-year anniversary of this war…I’m sorry, “special military operation”. That Moscow hasn’t crushed a smaller, weaker state right on its doorstep is utterly pathetic.

Posted by: ReinhardVonSiegfried | Feb 5 2025 20:42 utc | 320
As for this nonsense, again you fall into the same trap as the likes of @Anonymous; you set your own arbitrary timetable for what Russia “should have” achieved by your own uninformed yardstick, then complain vociferously when Russia hasn’t achieved what you decided it should achieve.
It’s your timetable, you broke it, you own it…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 5 2025 22:08 utc | 322

Daily Deep State update.
Only 0.5 kmsq taken. Gains near Andriivka and Dachne.

Posted by: Anonymous | Feb 5 2025 23:53 utc | 323

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 5 2025 20:51 utc | 321
Yeah, good question on why Russia would need (or even want) Kiev. The next capital of Ukraine could be Zaporozhye or Dnepropetrovsk. Kiev could become a remote small town.
They have demolished not only Ukrainian armed forces, but Ukraine itself economically, and suckered the EU into a spiral of death having to support an endless black hole. Ultimately, any way you slice it, it leads to the end of the EU itself, whose task to survive is not support a military Junta outside the union, but whose function was to transfer wealth from one part of EU to another part of EU. Now, with all the wealth going into a bottomless pit, there’s no more wealth for the transfer areas and no more economic motive for the deficit areas.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 6 2025 9:42 utc | 324

According to Russian and Ukrainian telegram channels, Ukraine launched another offensive into the Kursk region. Battles ongoing and the Ukrainians seem to have retaken some lost ground. Yet we keep hearing how they are running out of men and equipment.

Posted by: bored | Feb 6 2025 11:59 utc | 325

According to Russian and Ukrainian telegram channels, Ukraine launched another offensive into the Kursk region. Battles ongoing and the Ukrainians seem to have retaken some lost ground. Yet we keep hearing how they are running out of men and equipment.
Posted by: bored | Feb 6 2025 11:59 utc | 326

Given the firm refusal by the Kremlin to deprive of them of those things, you will be still hearing about how they are out of men and equipment even when they are storming Belgorod city some time in the next few months…

Posted by: ANON2022 | Feb 6 2025 12:35 utc | 326

Daily Deep State update.
Only 0.5 kmsq taken. Gains near Andriivka and Dachne.
Posted by: Anonymous | Feb 5 2025 23:53 utc | 324

February is still in its early days, but so far it is running even lower than January, isn’t? The slowdown is continuing instead of reversing…
There have been numerous successful Ukrainian counterattacks too, around Volchansk, in Zagryzovo, in Kursk, etc.

Posted by: ANON2022 | Feb 6 2025 12:37 utc | 327

Yeah, good question on why Russia would need (or even want) Kiev.
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 6 2025 9:42 utc | 325

Perhaps because:
1) It is a Russian city, one of the most important Russian cities in fact.
2) Geostrategically the border has to run well to the west of it anyway

Posted by: ANON2022 | Feb 6 2025 12:38 utc | 328

When did the Russians ever say that they wanted to capture Kiev?
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 5 2025 20:51 utc | 321

Putin has indirectly said he does not want it.
That was about a year ago, when he said that “If we want to get back to Kiev, we need to mobilized another 500,000 to a million”. Which combined with the firm refusal to do an additional mobilization because Putin’s oligarch buddies have placed a veto on that, tells you what the intentions are.
But that is a catastrophe, not a good thing. It means the Kremlin is run by traitors, because there is no conceivable outcome of this war in which Kiev is not a Russian city again and Russia has not been strategically defeated.

Posted by: ANON2022 | Feb 6 2025 12:41 utc | 329

And just like that, Elensky appears as a madman who wants a nuclear exchange
Posted by: frithguild | Feb 5 2025 18:28 utc | 316

Not a madman at all.
The Western strategy has worked very well so far.
Did you imagine back in 2022 that three years into this Russian cities more than a thousands kilometers into the rear will be bombed daily, pre-war Russia proper will have been invaded and will not have cleared the invaders six months (today is exactly six months since it started) later, and the Kremlin will be on its knees begging for a deal that will finalize its strategic defeat, instead of unshackling the Russian the army to do what has to be done?
The frog was slowly, skillfully and very successfully boiled, taking advantage of the internal dysfunction of Russian society and the comprador nature of Russian elites. The analysts in Langley are very good at what they do, and they did a proper job here too.
The final dagger will be giving nukes to Zelensky.
Which, if the well-established pattern is followed, will soon happen, and might in fact already have happened.
What is it that “Zelensky has asked” and has not received so far? In quotation marks because in reality Zelensky does not ask for anything himself, he says what he is told to say, and the US is just giving itself permission to escalate, safe in their knowledge there will be no meaningful response.
The obvious next step is nukes on Tomahawks and JASSMs.

Posted by: ANON2022 | Feb 6 2025 12:47 utc | 330

The latest AFU offensive in Kursk, toward Cherkasskaya Konopelka from Sudzha has reportedly suffered big losses of AFVs. The AFU offensive has now being reduced to crawling infantry.
It’s funny that this offensive coincided a day or two later after Zelensky said he still plans to use this area as a bargaining chip. That means the AFU is concentrating 90% of its efforts here.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 6 2025 12:50 utc | 331

Military recruitment office in Rivne blown up by a 21 year old man who was attempted to be mobilized. 8 military officers injured. Things are seriously deteriorating beneath the surface.

🇺🇦 The Military Recruitment Center in Rivne was blown up by a 21-year-old guy from the Zhytomyr region.
He entered the military registration and enlistment office building with explosives in his backpack, after which an explosion occurred.
He himself died, eight military commissars were injured, the SBU reported.
-> Another explosion occurred at the Kamyanets-Podilsky military registration and enlistment office.
Military recruitment is the enemy of the people.
https://x.com/MyLordBebo/status/1887120855496310879

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 6 2025 12:54 utc | 332

Posted by: ANON2022 | Feb 6 2025 12:47 utc | 331
Don’t you think, hypothetically, threatening to give Kiev nukes is the final admission of defeat? If they were winning and having planned beach parties in Crimea, they wouldn’t be talking about nukes.
I mean, that is what MSM was fear mongering in 2022 and 2023, Russia would launch nukes into Kiev. Now when threatening Russia with nukes is suddenly Kiev regime winning?

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 6 2025 13:05 utc | 333

Don’t you think, hypothetically, threatening to give Kiev nukes is the final admission of defeat? If they were winning and having planned beach parties in Crimea, they wouldn’t be talking about nukes.
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 6 2025 13:05 utc | 334

The sole reason the war was started was to prevent US nukes being placed in Ukraine.
The Kremlin never gave a single f**k about Russians in Ukraine (or anywhere else, including in Russia itself) as long as the oligarchs were making their billions off selling Russian raw resources to the West, but that prospect forced their hands.
How would that happening be a win for Russia?

Posted by: ANON2022 | Feb 6 2025 13:08 utc | 334

I wonder, how has this 2022 person managed to get new sponsors so quickly?

Posted by: Avtonom | Feb 6 2025 14:00 utc | 335

Posted by: Avtonom | Feb 6 2025 14:00 utc | 336
#############
There are a few lonely and obsessive posters who do this for free.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 6 2025 14:05 utc | 336

Today I see Rusaia using donkeys for transport. Seriously, you guys all can see that the Russian army doesn’t have enough armour for assaults, and over 50% are now in civilian vehicles, how do you guys still think you’ll win?
You saw what Israel did to Iran with an air strike force. All over in one night.
Thats what happens if America steps into Ukraine, Russia folds in one night like Iran did. And then, shortly after, Russia publically says it won’t retaliate to the US like Iran did with Israel.
Posted by: Banishedandbackagain | Feb 4 2025 21:38 utc | 287
Lets be clear here.
You believe that Russia is using donkey carts and automobiles instead of AFV’s yet Ukraine hasn’t been able to take back any of the territory they lost since Jan ’22.
You believe Israel destroyed Iran’s air defences despite Israel turning tail and running half way through the first of three waves of attack.
AND you think it’s a good idea for 2 nuclear superpowers to start firing missiles at each other.
Brother … you are an IDIOT. I swear to god that you must meed a bike helmet while walking and keep a cork on your fork to keep from poking your eye out.

Posted by: HB_Norica | Feb 6 2025 14:20 utc | 337

CEC opens access to election information and prepares to launch voter register — CHESNO
The Central Election Commission (CEC) of Ukraine has restored access to the section of its official website that contains information on parliamentary and local elections.
The CHECNO movement drew attention to this.
After the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by the aggressor country russia, these sections of the CEC website were inaccessible for security reasons.
It is noted that until recently, data on voting could only be viewed if they had been archived in advance.
Currently, the CEC website provides information on presidential and parliamentary elections for different years. Data on local elections is also displayed.
Deputy Chairman of the CEC Serhii Dubovyk confirmed in a comment to CHESNO that access to the official website of the election commission has been fully restored.
“The Central Election Commission is completing another stage of restoring the State Register of Voters – streamlining information about polling stations that operate on a permanent basis. When we receive permission from cyber specialists to open the third component of the register, voters will be able to check their electoral address,” said Dubovyk.
As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, the day before, the U.S. President’s Special Representative for Ukraine and Russia Keith Kellogg said in an interview with Reuters that Washington wants Kyiv to hold elections immediately after the cessation of hostilities.

Election momentum seems to be building up. Probably the quickest way to completely dissolve Ukraine as a nation-state entity.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 6 2025 14:21 utc | 338

328 (ANON)
If you click on the little “i” icon at the Deep State Map, it gives you total RFA territory taken (use the second row down) as well as daily changes. Just doing the math:
05FEB: 68,204 kmsq
31JAN: 68,185 kmsq
————-
delta: 19 kmsq
# days: 5
————
kmsq/day: ~4
So, less than half of JAN. Or about a fourth of DEC. Or about a sixth of the (recent record) NOV pace.
It’s one thing to make copes about the weather (although that happens every year, and a factor favoring the defense is still a factor favoring the defense). But when I see clickbait YT and X channels still pushing the “RFA is accelerating” meme…and I see cheerleader types buying that and saying Donetsk is getting hoovered up…well that is lame!
Also, of course the recent UFA counterattacks at Pokrovsk and Kursk are interesting. Heck even if RFA repels them, it’s sure a different story to say “we repelled the UFA” versus “we moved forward”.
Note that I give the RFA credit when they earn it. Did it during the “acceleration” and will do it again. But doing the math shows you a very interesting story that cuts through the spin. Heck, even at the record month of NOV, the pace on an intrinsic scale was quite small. Still talking over a decade to get RFA claimed 4 oblasts.

Posted by: Anonymous | Feb 6 2025 15:15 utc | 340

329 Anon:
It’s also the head of government, largest city, yada yada. Leaving out what border they want or if it is Russian or not, capital cities are just kinda important and strategic. Why the US hit Bagdhad in 2003. Why Grant hit Richmond in 1865. Why the Russians entered Berlin in 1945.
I mean sounds obvious, but it’s definitely the way war planners on staffs think. They want to take “centers of gravity”, regardless of the post war borders. It just helps defeat the enemy.

Posted by: Anonymous | Feb 6 2025 15:18 utc | 341

I mean sounds obvious, but it’s definitely the way war planners on staffs think. They want to take “centers of gravity”, regardless of the post war borders. It just helps defeat the enemy.
Posted by: Anonymous | Feb 6 2025 15:18 utc | 342
Yes but consider that Napoleon took Moscow then lost the war and the Wehrmacht wasted 50-60% of their offensive power fighting to take Moscow then lost the war when they should have concentrated their efforts in 1941 taking the Donbas coal and Caucasian oil then take Moscow the next year when the Soviets were out of oil and the Volga blockaded from receiving lend lease aid.
Further more did the fighting stop when the Americans took Bagdad or did it ramp up? Destroy the civilian government and it becomes a case of “you broke it you bought it” Your army is no the countries police force, intelligence service and humanitarian service provider.
Your argument would make sense if the “government” of a country was a place and not a set of organizations and institutions that maintain order in a country … note the 8 years of civil war and chaos in Iraq. Buildings and cities can be siezed and destroyed but a government can meet anywhere to make decisions. Destroy Bankova Street and the government meets via Zoom from their dachas all over Ukraine … what did you actually destroy hitting Bankova Street let wasting time and money taking a city of 3 million.
If you can for example create a situation so bad that civilians turn on their government in a coup then the institutions stay intact and the new government is responsible for their own police and security.

Posted by: HB_Norica | Feb 6 2025 16:21 utc | 342

If you can for example create a situation so bad that civilians turn on their government in a coup then the institutions stay intact and the new government is responsible for their own police and security.

Posted by: HB_Norica | Feb 6 2025 16:21 utc | 343
Exactly this, and in the specific case of Ukraine, given its fractured (and fractious) situation, it doesn’t necessarily mean the whole populace rising up and overthrowing the Kiev junta. It could easily be an oblast by oblast basis, with local/regional civilian leadership not only taking responsibility for police and security but also for peace, which means throwing in their lot with Russia.
This is something that the shallow and binary thinkers, who see Odessa (for example) becoming Russian only by military assault, do not factor in the prospect of the residents themselves deciding where their future lies. It’s already a hotbed of pro-Russian partisan actions.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 6 2025 18:36 utc | 343

@Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Thu, 06 Feb 2025 18:36:00 GMT | 344

This is something that the shallow and binary thinkers, who see Odessa (for example) becoming Russian only by military assault, do not factor in the prospect of the residents themselves deciding where their future lies.

Indeed, Crimea became Russian without a shot fired. Same can happen with Odessa. The point of the SMO now is to weaken the AFU to the point that they cannot put up any more resistance. “Centers of gravity” aside, although I doubt our map-dropping friend has read Clausewitz, there are many different ways to win a war.

Posted by: James M. | Feb 7 2025 3:25 utc | 344

If Trump has any brains he will continue Biden’s policy to do just enough to keep the war going.. forever.
If there is one clear winner in this war its US. They took over EU’s lucrative energy markets from Russia, expanded NATO, forced Europe to increase defense spending dramatically (with weapons bought from US), bled Russia dry, and isolated them. All without losing one trooper. Weapons testing and Russia getting kicked out of Syria are the side benefits.

Posted by: okoolo | Feb 7 2025 22:56 utc | 345

@okoolo | Fri, 07 Feb 2025 22:56:00 GMT | 345
Except they lost Ukraine and Belarus, Georgia and Armenia. Russia is more secure, Putin is definitely more secure. Europe is less secure, and in fact the US is on the verge of losing Europe. The US is blocked out of Eurasia (Central Asia) entirely, and has lost considerable influence in Africa and Southeast Asia. France has been kicked out of almost all of their former African colonies, but that’s just a side benefit.

Posted by: James M. | Feb 8 2025 1:04 utc | 346

Trump literally cannot end the war without boosting Russia directly. Even removing sanctions may not be enough at this point. Russia is on the precipice of economic collapse and Ukraine’s drone attacks against oil infrastructure are accomplished with homegrown weaponry.
With the current trajectory (if Trump did nothing) Russia is guaranteed to lose the war. They’ve already lost. Only Trump injecting money into Russia could stop that now.
If Russia had gotten this play a year ago it would have fucked Ukraine completely, but now who knows.
Regardless, all Zelensky has to do is say, “We don’t accept the offered peace” and the war continues. Trump can’t force Ukraine to capitulate from this position, he can only entice them to capitulate or force them to survive without US support. Which they will, as long as they reasonably can.

Posted by: Polygon Man | Feb 8 2025 1:31 utc | 347

@Polygon Man | Sat, 08 Feb 2025 01:31:00 GMT | 347

Russia is on the precipice of economic collapse

We’ve heard that for the last three years. Any actual evidence to back that claim, or are you just another troll/sockpuppet account that need to be blocked?

Posted by: James M. | Feb 8 2025 4:18 utc | 348

if using donkeys was normal for the Russian army we would have seen them in 2022, 2023 and 2024 we didn’t ……………… Russia has had 1,000’s of supply vehicles taken out that’s why they are using them

Posted by: Logical Performer | Feb 9 2025 3:46 utc | 349

illogical comedy act is not like it, lol..

Posted by: james | Feb 9 2025 3:54 utc | 350