Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
February 2, 2025
Ukraine Open Thread 2025-023

News & views related to the war in Ukraine …

Comments

What do we think – will Russia be allowed to keep its bases – or not?”
Russia is willing to help with the reconstruction of Syria as it continues to seek a deal with the country’s new leadership to retain two vital military bases, according to a senior Middle East policy adviser to the Russian government.
The Kremlin is scrambling to preserve some measure of influence in Syria after its ally President Bashar al-Assad was ousted last month by the former Islamist rebels who now control the country. The military bases — a naval port at Tartus and an airfield at Hmeimim — have enabled Moscow to project influence in the Middle East and Africa, and their loss would be a significant strategic setback. ”

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Feb 3 2025 18:28 utc | 201

@160. “…the issue is not with ATC…”
Methinks ATC will be found contributory. FAA ORDER 7110.65 dictates controller action/phraseology for authorizing pilot initiated visual separation:
“Tell the pilot about the other aircraft. Include position, direction, type, and, unless it is obvious, the other aircraft’s intention.
Obtain acknowledgment from the pilot that the other aircraft is in sight.
PHRASEOLOGY-
(ACID), TRAFFIC, (clock position and distance), (direction) BOUND, (type of aircraft), (intentions and other relevant information).
Towers must use the procedures contained in paragraph 3-1-6, Traffic Information, subparagraph b or c, as appropriate.
If aircraft are on converging courses, inform the other aircraft of the traffic and that visual separation is being applied.
PHRASEOLOGY-
(ACID), TRAFFIC, (clock position and distance), (direction) BOUND, (type of aircraft), HAS YOU IN SIGHT AND WILL MAINTAIN VISUAL SEPARATION.
Advise the pilots if the targets appear likely to merge.”
It appears the controller may have adequately issued traffic to the copter initially but the follow-up query “do you have the CRJ in sight” did not include an updated position/direction on the CRJ which might have alerted the copter pilots as to the actual location of the traffic they were to avoid. Controller also did not issue a traffic advisory to the CRJ pilots about the copter although, obviously, the aircraft were on converging courses. Thus the CRJ was oblivious to the threat and not engaged in looking for the copter and maneuvering if necessary to avoid collision.

Posted by: UBAH | Feb 3 2025 18:28 utc | 202

192 – Fits a pattern of wars, in which typically newly-arrived replacements are apt to be killed off quickly. They don’t know the behaviour of veterans who are likely to have survived by learning how to avoid risks. Veterans often avoid the “f^^king new guys” because being around them can be dangerous.

Posted by: Waldorf | Feb 3 2025 18:36 utc | 203

Borzzikman reported yesterday that Russia took out some Ukrainian planes with an SU-57.
Among those planes was an F-16, believed to have been piloted by an American.
Trump hasn’t stopped supporting Ukraine.
He’s just cut off the overt transfer of arms and financial aid.
It looks like Putin may have to go all the way to Lviv to end this fiasco.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 3 2025 18:39 utc | 204

Putin never will but all of the way to Paris and London would be better.
Until Europe is pacified, Russia will not be safe.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 3 2025 18:41 utc | 205

201 – Eventually they will lose the bases. I suspect the “government” of head-choppers has only refrained from trying to remove them so far because it barely controls even rump Syria, and it may look bad to take overt action against the Russians when it failed to defend Syrian territory from the Israelis.

Posted by: Waldorf | Feb 3 2025 18:44 utc | 206

Going Underground
https://www.rt.com/shows/going-underground/612042-mcadams-trump-russia-pressure/
“Ukraine: ‘Trump is in for a rude awakening’ over plan to pressure Russia’ – Daniel MacAdams.”
CrossTalk Bullhorns: Crunch Time?
https://www.rt.com/shows/crosstalk/612041-trump-plan-displace-palestinians/
“Does Trump actually have a plan to end the Ukraine conflict? It doesn’t appear so…”

Posted by: John Gilberts | Feb 3 2025 18:57 utc | 207

Posted by: Paranaense | Feb 3 2025 17:05 utc | 198
I was going to ask how the suit came out & then saw its from 24.
This happened under O & they’re just suing now?
In any event as I wrote elsewhere, the ATC shortage was started by Reagan.
And it’s caused by the same thing…cutting costs until the wrongful death suits become more expensive than the savings.
In this case, they let someone leave before his/her shift was over. There normally were 2 ATCs on duty until at least 9:30 pm, & even then it was determined by traffic levels.
And new facts make it even less the ATCs fault. The radar tracking showed the copter at 200′. So either the copter was sending incorrect data or there was a long enough lag time to allow the copter to climb 150′ without showing up on radar tracking.

Posted by: Mary | Feb 3 2025 19:24 utc | 208

All those of you who insist on contaminating this Ukraine thread with an American plain crash: Can’t you at least be a little polite and move over to the open thread

Posted by: Avtonom | Feb 3 2025 19:41 utc | 209

All those of you who insist on contaminating this Ukraine thread with an American plain crash: Can’t you at least be a little polite and move over to the open thread

Posted by: Avtonom | Feb 3 2025 19:41 utc | 209
Hear, hear to that! I can’t work if it just exceptionalist individualism asserting its right to post wherever the heck it likes, or a concerted effort at derailment, because discussion of the likes of grenade attacks on press-gang offices or the outcome at Yuzhmash is causing discomfort somewhere.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 3 2025 19:53 utc | 210

@208
Aircraft within xx miles of an active airport are tracked real time and data input to the ATC workstation display. Airport Surveillance Radar (ASR).
There may be that discrete altitude under xxxx feet is +/- too many feet. I do not know, that is one question of hundreds for the accident board.
ASD-B and other self reporting are not the only data……
I will say no more on this thread.

Posted by: paddy | Feb 3 2025 20:06 utc | 211

For all intents and purposes, Russia has lost their bases in Syria. Everything outside the base fences is now enemy territory, so how can they persist? There will be harassment drone strikes that will ramp up to serious ones until Russia abandons the bases. That is unless the CIA wants to stage something really nasty and spectacular to embarrass and shock the Russians, but the CIA would never stoop to something like that, would they?

Posted by: William Gruff | Feb 3 2025 20:09 utc | 212

@209
Sorry about that. You’re right.

Posted by: UBAH | Feb 3 2025 20:11 utc | 213

Here we go, audit time:

The first sanctions loomed: The United States is preparing an audit of the Ukrainian CPC
The administration of Donald Trump intends to investigate the activities of the Ukrainian “Anti-Corruption Center” (CPC), and sanctions may be imposed on its leaders Vitaly Shabunin and Daria Kalenyuk. This is reported by the publication “Law and Business”.
It is noted that through the CPC, “former American officials (from the US Democratic Party — Ed.) influenced the judicial and law enforcement system of Ukraine and established control over the Supreme Council of Justice and By the High Qualification Commission of Judges”.
“There is also information about initiatives coming from the Ukrainian establishment regarding the application of US sanctions to the heads of the CPC Daria Kalenyuk and Vitaly Shabunin,” the publication quoted by Strana.
As reported by EADaily, the United States Embassy on Ukraine handed over to the head of the Office of the President (OP) of Ukraine Andriy Ermak documents on corruption schemes in the purchase of weapons for the Armed Forces of Ukraine and data on transactions in cryptocurrencies from the “Big Construction site”. This was reported by the telegram channel “Resident” with reference to a source in the OP.

https://eadaily.com/en/news/2025/02/03/the-first-sanctions-loomed-the-united-states-is-preparing-an-audit-of-the-ukrainian-cpc
I can hear it now: “We’re gonna audit them, audit them bigly, and it’s going to be a beautiful audit, really beautiful”…
And how about that Ukrainian Prosecutor who was dismissed because of his investigations into Burisma?

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 3 2025 20:18 utc | 214

For all intents and purposes, Russia has lost their bases in Syria. 
Posted by: William Gruff | Feb 3 2025 20:09 utc | 212
PER MY INSTINCT the Russians may move indeed, if the Syrians of present will not present the Russians with generous incentives to stay as a bulwark. The Syrians of present may prefer Russians, instead of a subsequent “color revolution” against themselves, in order to instill US democracy.

Posted by: logosapplied | Feb 3 2025 20:23 utc | 215

UK gives ” 2.26″ billion loan from frozen Rus funds…Finland gives 198million….it all adds up to the figs I gave yesterday..

Posted by: Jo | Feb 3 2025 20:41 utc | 216

It’s a Youtube channel I can’t vouch for, but claims that the Ukrainians are fleeing Sudhza en masse leaving equipment behind … it doesn’t seem too click-baitey, but who knows. Seems like it uses AI for the voiceover.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=97b5O6Jrj-g

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Feb 3 2025 20:55 utc | 217

Borzzikman reported yesterday that Russia took out some Ukrainian planes with an SU-57.
Among those planes was an F-16, believed to have been piloted by an American.
Trump hasn’t stopped supporting Ukraine.
He’s just cut off the overt transfer of arms and financial aid.
It looks like Putin may have to go all the way to Lviv to end this fiasco.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 3 2025 18:39 utc | 204
Official numbers just mention one plane
Destroyed during the day: 1 aircraft, 23 tanks and other armored vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (13 of them in the Kursk direction), 31 vehicles (9 in the Kursk direction), 199 drones. 65 artillery installations and probably mortars were also destroyed.
The daily losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine amounted to 1,505 soldiers, including 520 in the Pokrovsky direction (Center), 300 in Kupyansk (West), 220 in Donetsk (South), 150 in South Donetsk (East), 70 in Kherson (Dnipro), 35 in Kharkiv (North). 210 militants of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were killed in the Kursk direction.

Posted by: Newbie | Feb 3 2025 20:58 utc | 218

According to Larry, the copter pilot was twice above the height that she should have been (200 feet?). That seem amazingly low to me. There are no buildings taller tha 60 metres in Washington DC?. Or only over the Potomac?
Posted by: Ant. | Feb 3 2025 16:10 utc | 190

I don’t think they have to fly below 200 feet everywhere in the DC area.
This route of the helicopter (Route 4) also requires them to stay above the eastern shore of the Potomac river. They had twice gone away from the eastern river edge significantly and had to make a sharp turn back. They were again moving away from the river edge and towards the airport at the time of the crash.
It seems to be the large consensus that wearing night vision goggles in a bright area like DC makes things worse. The helicopter also angles down when it flies forward (they were going around 130mph) and the instrument console comes up and covers the lower center part of the windshield.
I have seen people claiming to have been former pilots on that route say that when there was a plane coming into runway 33 they would be told to stop and hover.

Posted by: Cheney | Feb 3 2025 21:18 utc | 219

Republicofscotland@201…..read somewhere recently that the French have been all over the old Russian bases in Syria, there are no Russians there. Also the Apartheid State dismantled all the weapons storage facilities, reports of rather large explosions, all those big beautiful weapons, gone. Damn restraint.
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Feb 3 2025 21:52 utc | 220

What’s wrong with this?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9aG13c-derM
( Ukrainian Su-27 fighter jet drops 1,000lb bombs on unsuspecting Russian forces)
A challenge for observant posters.
Posted by: Milites | Feb 2 2025 15:45 utc | 17

It doesn’t appear as if your post generated any commentary here on (MOA) Moscow Of Alabama…what a surprise! As someone on YT commented, “The distance between Bakhmut and Chasiv Yar is only 10 km, the second best army in the world conquered Bakhmut in May 2023 and has not conquered Chasiv Yar as of 2025.”
Pathetic.

Posted by: ReinhardVonSiegfried | Feb 3 2025 21:56 utc | 221

It doesn’t appear as if your post generated any commentary here

Posted by: ReinhardVonSiegfried | Feb 3 2025 21:56 utc | 221
Er… Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 2 2025 16:04 utc | 22
Tell me you haven’t read through the whole thread without telling me you haven’t read through the whole thread.
I guess the USAID funding moratorium has affected your ability to spend a lot of time here and still make a living.
And you fall into the same trap as our dear friend/doormat @Anonymous, judging progress purely by the land take, disregarding the collapse in civil order within Ukraine, the constitutional illegitimacy of the Kiev junta or the anaemic state of its army.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 3 2025 22:18 utc | 222

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Feb 3 2025 20:55 utc | 217
Funny enough, I was very close to posting a link to that channel due to how well put together the videos are, at least for someone like me who just wants to see the broad strokes of what’s happening on the line of contact.

Posted by: Babel-17 | Feb 3 2025 22:51 utc | 223

Posted by: Newbie | Feb 3 2025 20:58 utc | 218
#############
For those of us who do not suffer from autism, “Whose numbers?”

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 3 2025 23:03 utc | 224

Can anyone give me a reasonable take on Oryx OSINT and their seemingly inflated numbers on Russian equipment losses? I know they were spawned off of Bellingcrap or at least have the same British / Dutch ‘intelligence’ backers. But I’m looking for a definitive takedown or proof of actual errors and chicanery if anyone can provide. Thanks.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Feb 3 2025 23:04 utc | 225

@Sean_the_Leprechaun
Typical French … a day late, and a dollar short. The Apartheid State destroyed all the weapons that those Frenchies probably wanted to transfer to Ukraine.
One of these days, they’ll field a competent military.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Feb 3 2025 23:04 utc | 226

I saw a video from Martyanov today that talks about what I have noticed.
Trump is saying one thing, and something different is happening.
He keeps talking about talks with Russia, Peskov and the Russian Foreign Ministry has denied any talks have happened or are scheduled to happen.
With the HIMARS attack on Russian civilians recently, is is obvious that the US is still providing targeting information to the Nazis.
All of this Trump peace stuff was nice to entertain but it hasn’t manifested in reality.
Not that it matters. Trump could break every election promise and his voters have no means by which to hold him accountable.
This is his last term. He has nothing to lose electorally.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 3 2025 23:08 utc | 227

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Feb 3 2025 14:50 utc | 176
of bloody course Sean. Stop teaching me to suck eggs. Canada like Australia is ultimately subject to the crown of UK. Of course the connection is tenuous and subject to whim of the Canadian people but yes technically all decisions must be approved by Charlie.
Not sure why you assume Charlie will be all the way with USA. MI6 asset Starmer maybe but not Charlie. Not sure whether in this case Starmer has any say. Definitely one for the constitutional lawyers, but I think that the rules are that Charlie must accept the advice of the Canadian PM, and technically Starmer is out of the loop.
Moreover Canada would first need to declare independence from the UK before integrating with USA. Lot of opposition to that I would think. While if Trump were to attack Canada he is at war with the entire British Commonwealth.
As for the so call ed promise to only sell resources with approval USA, i woud expect that canada could easily withdraw from such a terrible treaty and perhaps that was the bargaining chip used to get Donnie to back down – which he has.
Anyway time has moved since I started this post and a compromise/face saver reached.

Posted by: watcher | Feb 3 2025 23:16 utc | 228

I cannot understand the servile, obsequious, cowardly compliance of EU nations in regard to their borders and sovereignty. Why do we not witness a critical mass of these nations simply leaving any EU judicial administration and join up with others who feel the same way?

Posted by: Eighthman | Feb 3 2025 23:23 utc | 229

Why do we not witness a critical mass of these nations simply leaving any EU judicial administration and join up with others who feel the same way?
Posted by: Eighthman | Feb 3 2025 23:23 utc | 229

The European elite political class was bribed with loans from the ECB which they cannot repay.

Posted by: too scents | Feb 3 2025 23:28 utc | 230

@LoveDonbass | Mon, 03 Feb 2025 23:08:00 GMT | 227

Not that it matters. Trump could break every election promise and his voters have no means by which to hold him accountable.
This is his last term. He has nothing to lose electorally.

Trump supporters were always in for a rude surprise. Trump plays golf and swings real estate deals, enriching himself and his family, but has little interest or acumen in actual governance.

Posted by: James M. | Feb 3 2025 23:41 utc | 231

Daily DS update:
https://deepstatemap.live/en#6/49.4324126/32.0581055
Another very slow day with only 2.8 kmsq taken. Much less than recent months average.
Gains at the “Dnipropetrovsk front” and near Chasiv Yar.

Posted by: Anonymous | Feb 3 2025 23:59 utc | 232

Posted by: Mary | Feb 3 2025 19:24 utc | 208
“And new facts make it even less the ATCs fault.”
Maybe, maybe not. You still haven’t explained how implementing DEI hiring restrictions that have nothing to do with job performance and shrink the pool of qualified applicants leads to improved safety. Would you care to give it a try?

Posted by: Paranaense | Feb 4 2025 0:05 utc | 233

@ Tom_Q_Collins | Feb 3 2025 23:04 utc | 225
Oryx has conveniently quit midway though the worst offensive ever conceived of summer 2023. The mantle of bullshit was picked up by some other paid liars, I lost track which.
Nobody was interested in sifting through thousands of listing from self advertised banderite lovers to debunk. The numbers have always been transparently fantasy-land, which was good enough for anyone with a brain.
Random sifting through someone occasionally bothered with showed most commonly lack of data to attribute an individual loss to either side. Very conveniently listed as “definitely Russian”. On top of those: multiple photos of the same piece of equipment listed as multiple loses. Brand-spanking Russian logistic markings painted on top of long burned out charred black armour lying on regrown untouched grass. Training footage portrayed as live combat. Multiple drones striking/finishing off the same vehicle counted as separate loses. Plainly very low quality footage. Etc.
The only half decent equipment loss compiler for AFU is Lost Armour (Russian, naturally). I do not know any decent ones for RFAF loses.

Posted by: boneless | Feb 4 2025 0:13 utc | 234

ZH has a posting up with the title
Another Mass Ukrainian Drone Attack Triggers Fires At Oil & Gas Facilities In Southern Russia
quote

Ukraine launched another large-scale drone attack on Russian territory overnight targeting oil refineries and infrastructure. Russia’s defense ministry confirmed the widespread nature of the attack, saying it shot down over 70 of the inbound drones.
Drones reportedly struck an oil refinery Russia’s southern Volgograd region as part of the larger attack. Infrastructure in the southern Astrakhan region was also targeted, including gas facilities.
The damaged refinery in Volgograd appears to belong to Russian oil giant Lukoil. This marks the third oil refinery hit by Ukrainian drones within a little over a week. Such large-scale attacks seem to now be coming at a weekly pace.

The constant mass drone attacks have done nothing to alter Russia’s advances in Ukraine’s east, but Kiev hopes to put a dent in Russia’s war machine by setting back its crucial oil and energy-based revenue.
Ukraine has also hoped to grab the attention of its Western backers with these attacks, signaling NATO that it can escalate against Russia if it chooses to.

I have read that all drone strikes are also coordinated with US folks for targeting information…..Trump owns the continuation of NATO in Ukraine.
Where are all the Trump hopium breathers that assured us that Trump was pulling the plug immediately?

Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 4 2025 0:23 utc | 235

Posted by: James M. | Feb 3 2025 23:41 utc | 231
###############
I truly do not think Trump is in this for the money.
He’s after the bigger and harder-to-gain prize.
Legacy.
Once someone is a member of the global 1%, money is no longer an issue, it’s not like Trump is a million short of eating steak (or whatever he wants) every night.
Fame is not legacy. Legacy is streets in other countries being named after you. It’s being in the top 5 of all-time great US Presidential lists. It’s people talking about you like they do Reagan or FDR decades after they served.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 4 2025 1:15 utc | 236

The difference between Trump and Biden is that Biden had a poor person’s mentality, 10% for the big guy and all that.
Trump didn’t take a paycheck in his first term, and many of his actions in his second term strike me as legacy projects.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 4 2025 1:28 utc | 237

For those of us who do not suffer from autism, “Whose numbers?”
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 3 2025 23:03 utc | 224
MoD You can follow the numbers here (I still thank whoever here shared the link and autotranslate works fine for this)
https://mskvremya.ru/article/2023/1520-poteri-ukrainy-za-vremya-spetsoperatsii
(and on the right you have a map you can autotranslate for the advances through yandex or see things in the map, not the two at the same time)
https://mskvremya.ru/article/2023/1473-kontr-nastup-interaktivnaya-karta-boevyh-deistviy-na-ukraine
You’re welcome
P.S. We were discussing AFU casualties and I only ever use, and discuss unless I state it’s from another source, the RF MoD updates (through this site or through tass articles)

Posted by: Newbie | Feb 4 2025 1:44 utc | 238

Posted by: Newbie | Feb 4 2025 1:44 utc | 239
##############
You do know that the numbers don’t matter, right?
It will matter when either side cannot fill trenches or drive tanks.
The Ukrainians have been using Poles, Colombians, Canadians, Brits, and French troops. I doubt the RuMOD can break those out in their reports given that many bodies are buried under rubble or converted into mist.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 4 2025 1:50 utc | 239

@LoveDonbass | Tue, 04 Feb 2025 01:15:00 GMT | 236

Legacy is streets in other countries being named after you. It’s being in the top 5 of all-time great US Presidential lists. It’s people talking about you like they do Reagan or FDR decades after they served.

He has a funny way of going about promoting his “legacy.” He is overall the least popular president since polling began. I don’t think at any point in his presidency (first term and current term) he’s polled above 50%. Every other president hit at least sixty percent at least once, except Biden who hit 57%.
Granted, leadership is about making the hard decisions and tough choices, but at some point the leader has to benefit at least a bare majority of his followers. Or at least give the appearance that he is effective. Trump in contrast to most US presidents is chaotic and undisciplined, lacks a clear vision, and unable or unwilling to strike grand bargains to get legislation through the way Reagan did, FDR, Obama, etc.
Instead he has a mishmash of executive orders that will quickly be undone by his successor in four years. Do you think Mt. McKinley won’t be renamed Denali by the next Democratic president?

Posted by: James M. | Feb 4 2025 2:22 utc | 240

@LoveDonbass | Tue, 04 Feb 2025 01:28:00 GMT | 237

The difference between Trump and Biden is that Biden had a poor person’s mentality, 10% for the big guy and all that.
Trump didn’t take a paycheck in his first term, and many of his actions in his second term strike me as legacy projects.

Biden was a pretty terrible president, the second worst polling president in history after Trump. The problem the Democrats had was they did not primary him.
If Biden had been given a serious primary challenge, it would have either forced him to hone his debate skills and policy acumen so when he faced Trump it wouldn’t be a disaster, or it would have exposed his feeble-mindedness earlier and they could have had a better candidate than Kamala.
Trump did take a paycheck in his first term. It is mandated that the president be compensated. He just donated most of it back to the US government, and got a hefty tax write-off for it.

Posted by: James M. | Feb 4 2025 2:33 utc | 241

It’s been three years, pyrrhic volumes of Russian dead, destruction of most of its Soviet weapons inheritance. It’s VERY clear Russia is unable to defeat Ukraine.

Posted by: Junior Bar | Feb 4 2025 3:48 utc | 242

Elenskiy is begging for negotiations. Surviving population is killing its mobilization oppressors. Countless wunderwaffen proven insufficient, allied specialist and advisors forever buried deep in thought safe bunkers. Russia controls territories sold for billions of dollars and NATO fails to get those back for years, shattering the image of its military domination. Western government regimes fall like domino. Allies feed on allies. Will Elenskiy accept his embarrassing defeat?

Posted by: boneless | Feb 4 2025 4:06 utc | 243

Man, I wish I was paid to do this kinda thing too. Oh wait, nobody is getting paid anymore. Tragic.

Posted by: boneless | Feb 4 2025 4:07 utc | 244

Alastair Crooke
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YhkhKBgsQW8
“Can Trump save Gaza and Ukraine?”

Posted by: John Gilberts | Feb 4 2025 4:54 utc | 245

****LoveDonbass @150****
Sorry for not responding sooner.
Canadian Healthcare is not a big economic draw because the service is so bad. Many Canadian come to US for medical care like hip replacements vecause they can’t wait 18 Mos for it.
Many industrial facilities are actually operations of American, Japanese and European companies.There did not setup in Canadian to export to countries where they have similar facilities. NAFTA created an exception to that rule but US Corps will not stay if there overall profitability suffers. For the automotive industrial in my opinion there’s enough capacity that the don’t have to build new plants to make up for Canadian production.
Lastly, the USA is the market. Because of the tarrifs 60% of Canadian companies are looking to relocate or invest in the US.
Fyi
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/02/survey-nearly-half-canadian-businesses-plan-move-production/

Posted by: Jerr | Feb 4 2025 5:02 utc | 246

Decades of tank build up, gone. Millions of hours of training, gone. Decades of air defense build up, gone. Decades of artillery build up, gone.
The reality is russia has torched all of what they used to threaten people into concesions with.
The ccp can walk on them now.
The US can do an arctic rush again.
India has a solid chance of gutting russia if they want to.
Poland might be able to sucker punch moscow.
The russians could work day and night. It would take 50 years to replace what they’ve squandered, copycating nazi terror doctrine.

Posted by: Scott B Freiboth | Feb 4 2025 6:12 utc | 247

Elenskiy is begging for negotiations. Surviving population is killing its mobilization oppressors. Countless wunderwaffen proven insufficient, allied specialist and advisors forever buried deep in thought safe bunkers. Russia controls territories sold for billions of dollars and NATO fails to get those back for years, shattering the image of its military domination. Western government regimes fall like domino. Allies feed on allies. Will Elenskiy accept his embarrassing defeat?
Posted by: boneless | Feb 4 2025 4:06 utc | 244
He is very much against negotiations, read his speeches or more exactly what he’s told to say, not the crap youtube talking heads imagine.
And now Trumpy simply demanded all Ukr resources ( rt.com/news/612127-trump-demand-rare-earth-ukraine/ ) He’s one step from declaring everything there belongs to US and that Nato has to protect it.
So Zeli will never “fall” and even if he overdoses or becomes a vegetable, there will be zero chance the war will end. This month or the next month they will start to use +18, Trumpy has a lot of “work” in plan

Posted by: rk | Feb 4 2025 7:33 utc | 248

You do know that the numbers don’t matter, right?
It will matter when either side cannot fill trenches or drive tanks.
The Ukrainians have been using Poles, Colombians, Canadians, Brits, and French troops. I doubt the RuMOD can break those out in their reports given that many bodies are buried under rubble or converted into mist.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 4 2025 1:50 utc | 240
I do, and that’s why I am currently on the marines vs grunts model. And why there is no autumn without nato boots on the ground (not the residuals you mention, serious numbers) and no summer without the kids.
Btw, what you mention, not filling trenches, is the nec plus ultra, I once had hope that pain threshold and /or protests to finish could bring an earlier end of the SMO with a lot less killing (sorry not my thing to enjoy slaughters )

Posted by: Newbie | Feb 4 2025 9:27 utc | 249

TASS, Feb. 4th
“Driver of attacked school bus in Zaporozhye Region to be transferred to regional hospital
This is the second time the enemy targeted a school bus.”
‘The Patient Bear’ is never said to avoid Russian dishonor. A cumulative death toll tells the real sorrowful truth. The length of this miserable war is unconscionable when tomorrow is just another day.

Posted by: elmagnostic | Feb 4 2025 10:39 utc | 250

It looks as though zelensky the penist is right on the skids. As well as the trumpists, the euros have decided he has to go as he’s too intransigent about opposing doing a deal with Russia.
Russian foreign intelligence released this today through their press office. I used Yandex to translate it so I reckon I better paste the entire rather brief missive:

NATO members are preparing a campaign to discredit Zelensky
SVR Press Office of Russia, February 3
03.02.2025
The press office of the Foreign Intelligence Service of the Russian Federation reports that, according to information received by the SVR, NATO headquarters are increasingly thinking about a change of power in Ukraine. Brussels believes that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will soon be unable to contain the growing onslaught of the Russian army. With the coming to power in the United States, D. Trump’s decision increases uncertainty about the continuation of military assistance that the West will be able to provide to Kiev.
The NATO leadership considers it necessary at all costs to preserve the remnants of Ukraine as an anti-Russian springboard. It is supposed to “freeze” the conflict by bringing the warring parties to a dialogue about the “beginning of its settlement”. At the same time, Washington and Brussels agree that the main obstacle to the implementation of such a scenario is V. Zelensky, who is called “spent material”on the Western sidelines. NATO would like to get rid of the head of the Kiev regime, ideally as a result of pseudo-democratic elections. According to the alliance’s calculations, they could take place in Ukraine no later than the fall of this year.
On the eve of the election campaign, NATO headquarters are preparing a large-scale operation to discredit Zelensky. It is planned, in particular, to make public information about the appropriation personally by the “president” and members of his team only from funds intended for the purchase of ammunition, more than $ 1.5 billion. In addition, it is planned to reveal the scheme for the withdrawal of Zelensky and his entourage abroad of the monetary allowance of 130 thousand dead Ukrainian servicemen who continue to be listed as alive and serving on the front line. It is also planned to make public the facts of the involvement of the “supreme Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine” in repeated cases of the sale of large quantities of Western military equipment transferred to Kiev free of charge to various groups in African countries.
Thus, the fact that the time of the “overdue” Zelensky is numbered is understood even in NATO. It is only a pity that this understanding was given at the cost of the lives of hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian citizens.
Press Office
SVR of Russia 03.02.2025

It’s no surprise that all the west’s 3LA’s have been keeping their eye on him since he jagged the gig of prez; undoubtedly in anticipation of the somewhat inevitable day, when they have to use it.
If this gets out, especially the bit about transferring the wages of 130,000 ‘undead’ dead soldiers into the zelensky gang’s offshore bank accounts, he will cease to be a problem very rapidly, when the nazis who weren’t included in the deal take extreme umbrage.

Posted by: Debsisdead | Feb 4 2025 12:23 utc | 251

Looks like the raw minerals in Ukraine don’t really make that much of a difference, as most can be sourced from outside Ukraine. Most likely Trump just threw in the idea as a last ditch effort to loot as much as possible in exchange for US weapons before even that isn’t theoretically possible anymore, as Russia can deny the west of minerals, primarily located around Dnepropetrovsk and some around Krivoy Rog.

Yesterday, the technologists of the President’s Office seized on Trump’s words about the resources that Ukraine can give up for weapons to the US, but the problem has already been discussed by political telegram channels, which pointed out a number of problems in this scheme. We understand Yermak, who came up with this strategy at the beginning of autumn, and the propagandists are doing very badly with narratives in building stable semantic structures on the track with Trump, last time his handshake with Zelensky was discussed for a week. Let’s return to the analysis of the case with “payment” with resources, firstly, we already owe the US almost 100 billion dollars, which means the country can be taken away for pennies, secondly, no one will fight for our resources, in the conditions of escalation of the conflict, well, and now about the minerals themselves:
Ukraine really has some deposits of lithium, titanium, zirconium, cobalt, and other metals.
Lithium is the one they worry about the most, primarily the Shevchenko deposit in the Donbass. It is important to understand that Ukrainian lithium reserves are less than half a percent of the world’s total. They are incomparable with the volumes in the United States itself or with the lithium triangle in South America. If Trump does not have enough American lithium, he can ask his friend Miley, and there will be enough for the whole world. But the problem is not so much in the reserves as in investments in mining and subsequent processing. And almost all processing takes place in China. Ukraine has
titanium , that is true. The main deposits are in the Zhitomir and Dnipropetrovsk regions. Reserves are sometimes even estimated at 20% of the world’s. Ukraine is among the top ten in its production. There is a high demand for titanium – in aviation and chemistry. But it is not enough to mine titanium dioxide, you need to produce titanium itself. Where is it produced? The top three are again China, plus Japan and Russia. Japan and Russia import raw materials. Why does the United States mine titanium dioxide in Ukraine? To send it to Russia for processing? Almost all the world’s
cobalt is in southern Congo. There you can mine as much as you want, if you get to it or if the Rwandans get there. There are also reserves in Australia, Canada, China, the Philippines. Ukraine with its volumes is not even close.
Zirconium . Its main deposits are in Australia, South Africa, Brazil, Mozambique and the USA! If the Americans need zirconium so much, they have plenty of it at home. No need to fight anywhere. Only the main consumer of zirconium used in various high-tech processes is China and then Europe. The market there is stable, understandable. Ukrainian deposits will not make a splash there.
True, we still have a lot of coal and metallurgical ore, but who needs it?
https://t.me/rezident_ua/25500

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 4 2025 12:38 utc | 252

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Feb 3 2025 23:04 utc | 225
I saw a figure which Simplicius posted few posts ago. Russia has probably lost around 1000 tanks and 3000 AFV type vehicles.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 4 2025 12:53 utc | 253

So, s has a new post, starts with much the same as debsisbed nato dropping Z
Also the stop/start of us aid, mineral rights
And ends with mentioning mid 2026 for AFU collapse (I think he’s over prudent on the year but…)
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/russian-svrs-latest-intel-west-preparing

Posted by: Newbie | Feb 4 2025 13:40 utc | 254

The Trump claim to Ukrainian rare earth minerals as the basis for repayment of Ikraine’s war debt, is not about the minerals.
Rather, it is Trump telling Putin what the limits are going to be of Russian occupation of Ukrainian territory.

Posted by: Jerr | Feb 4 2025 14:04 utc | 255

Talking about minerals, here is a timely map of Ukraine’s mineral resources.
Ukraine lost most of its coal, a good chunk of metals, ores, and gas, and has the potential to lose majority of oil and gas in the Kharkov-Donbass area. There are still some rare metals, base metals and radioactive elements in Krivoy Rog area, nothing in central Ukraine and some amount of oil and gas in very west of Ukraine.
https://x.com/Zlatti_71/status/1886774031426138488

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 4 2025 14:40 utc | 256

Newbie@255….reading from s’ post today, the Russians have had ample opportunities to eliminate Zman, so it would be ridiculously funny at this point if the west caps bog roll boy and blames it on Russia ….based on that little twist of fate…..I predict Zman lives only because Russia never had balls big enough to pull off a double tap on the little turd.
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Feb 4 2025 14:47 utc | 257

Zelensky asks US for $20 billion to find out where the $100 billion went.
https://x.com/BowesChay/status/1886791531312336985

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 4 2025 15:25 utc | 258

“Norway: Former NATO SecGen Jens Stoltenberg has been named the new Norwegian Finance Minister.”
Fucking asshole! A textbook case of Empire Puppeteering

Posted by: canuck | Feb 4 2025 15:26 utc | 259

Posted by: canuck | Feb 4 2025 15:26 utc | 260
This is the final act in the plundering of vassals. Now puppets are directly installed to supervise the looting. He will probably raise NATO-to-GDP to 10% and ship it off to US companies.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 4 2025 15:32 utc | 260

From Twitter.
SIMPLICIUS Ѱ
@simpatico771
One aspect I’ve been following is that a huge amount of Russian troops leave the SMO on a revolving door via short term contracts. Most people believed you can’t leave until the end, but that was only for the initial 300k ‘limited mobilization’ troops, who are obliged to stay to the end. All the 500k++ who signed voluntary contracts since then are signing them on a 6 months, 1 year, 2 year, etc. basis and I have now seen many soldiers whose contract ended and they simply came home.
That means a large part of the churn is not battlefield losses but contract non-renewal. Hard to estimate how many but we’ve got to assume it’s a decent chunk/percentage who don’t renew for various reasons, could be anything from 10-30% if I had to guess.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 4 2025 16:10 utc | 261

Posted by: Jerr | Feb 4 2025 5:02 utc | 247
#############
Unsurprisingly, you’re not looking at this like a businessman.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 4 2025 16:12 utc | 262

Posted by: Scott B Freiboth | Feb 4 2025 6:12 utc | 248
#######
Don’t drink and post.
Russia hasn’t squandered anything.
Ukraine had become an existential threat.
Russia has gained trillions in minerals as well as some of the best farmland on the planet.
NATO has seen the losses in equipment that you mentioned.
Russia’s foreign policy has never been about threats. That’s America.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 4 2025 16:16 utc | 263

Alex Krainer thinks the 5% target for NATO spending set by Trump is impossible. Once EU states can’t fulfill it, Trump will use it to pull the rug under Nato.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dlhm0i-xl-k

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 4 2025 16:24 utc | 264

****** LoveDonbass @263 “Unsurprisingly, you’re not looking at this like a businessman.”
******
Thank you. I take that as a compliment, especially since it’s probably coming from a Marxist.

Posted by: Jerr | Feb 4 2025 16:38 utc | 265

259 – Well, yeah. Professional accountants need some money to work with. Are they expected to fly second-class or something?

Posted by: Waldorf | Feb 4 2025 17:11 utc | 266

From Twitter.
SIMPLICIUS Ѱ
@simpatico771
One aspect I’ve been following is that a huge amount of Russian troops leave the SMO on a revolving door via short term contracts. Most people believed you can’t leave until the end, but that was only for the initial 300k ‘limited mobilization’ troops, who are obliged to stay to the end. All the 500k++ who signed voluntary contracts since then are signing them on a 6 months, 1 year, 2 year, etc. basis and I have now seen many soldiers whose contract ended and they simply came home.
That means a large part of the churn is not battlefield losses but contract non-renewal. Hard to estimate how many but we’ve got to assume it’s a decent chunk/percentage who don’t renew for various reasons, could be anything from 10-30% if I had to guess.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 4 2025 16:10 utc | 262
So simplicius decided to address my napkin calculations.
1 million start + 1 million signed – 1.5 million current = 500.000 permanent casualties.
Yes S, it’s 1 million+, not 500.000+, only last year almost 450.000 last year and none of those left
https://tass.com/defense/1903743/amp
I often mentioned that less than 2 years would be unlikely and exceptional as would be too little time after full training and minimum experience to exploit (except maybe doctors and some other technical stuff)
2 years maybe some , and the first will get demobilized soon
There were contracts before the SMO and maybe 10% even 20% (doubtful) might have finished, but that only changes from 560.000 to 500.000 the casualties
Peanuts
Bright side is that AFU took more than 3.000.000 and with 1 million undraftables has little to nothing to draw from
My 0.5 million cents

Posted by: Newbie | Feb 4 2025 17:17 utc | 267

Posted by: Jerr | Feb 4 2025 16:38 utc | 266
################
An ideological lens makes for poor analysis.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 4 2025 17:42 utc | 268

258 – One of the theories about the conflict I find more credible is that the Russians have not popped Zelensky because he might be replaced by someone more competent.

Posted by: Waldorf | Feb 4 2025 17:45 utc | 269

I am listening to McGregor on Davis’s show.
He wants to get the mineral resources out of this after Biden sent so much money and materiel there.
Note that those mineral-rich regions are now constitutionally part of Russia.
So much for the Prince of Peace ending the war in 24 hours. LOL

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 4 2025 17:47 utc | 270

He = Trump

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 4 2025 17:47 utc | 271

@ LoveDonbass about those mineral deposits and Trump..thx
Reuters has this
Trump says he wants Ukraine to supply US with rare earths
Trump said it would be a form of payment for financially supporting the country’s war efforts.

If you are correct about the location of the rare earths then this is another bully negotiating ploy of Trump.
Just to be clear. it is my understanding that all the drone and missile activity is coordinated with NATO directions, so Trump owns the Ukraine situation and is NOT stopping Ukraine aggression against Russia.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 4 2025 18:33 utc | 272

Trump has been getting a lesson on realpolitik in spades this week –
No, Gaza citizens will not be ethnically cleansed to Jordan or Egypt or Indonesia. Neither will West Bank citizens. This is their homeland and they will never leave it. Palestinians have been fighting for equal rights and the return of their stolen lands since 1947, and they sure as heck are not stopping now. Gaza has been invaded by the IDF twelve separate times since 1947 and yet the resistance continues unabated.
No, the Ukrainian attempt to destabilize Russia situation will not be solved in one day or one month or one year. Russia will never allow a militarized EU/Nato nation state to exist in its southern Black Sea region.
Once DJT gets a grip on reality he will be better off……….

Posted by: tobias cole | Feb 4 2025 18:50 utc | 273

Once DJT gets a grip on reality he will be better off……….
Posted by: tobias cole | Feb 4 2025 18:50 utc | 274
#################
I’m not making excuses for Trump but I think he is the executive in name only. He still does not control the US government completely.
I wonder if the Ukraine rare-earths is him trying to keep the Neocons off his back to allow Putin more time to destroy the Nazi regime.
That said, I do not trust any politician to keep their word. They can show absolute integrity for 20 years, and I would still be skeptical. Humans are wildly unpredictable and can be very inconsistent.
As always, we will have to judge by the actions, not the marketing rhetoric (from any side).

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 4 2025 19:01 utc | 274

https://t.me/boris_rozhin/153592?single
Foreign mercenaries in the SVO zone are not uncommon. Here are the documents of a Turk, a Croatian and a Portuguese, recently wiped out by fighters of the “Vostok” group in the South Donetsk direction. And here is a British citizen, a lover of Nazi symbols, destroyed in the Kremensk direction. The motivation is probably different for everyone: money, a passion for Nazism, a desire to “hunt Russians” and other unhealthy things. Nevertheless, the result is the same – death on Russian soil at the hands of Russian fighters.

Posted by: MiniMO | Feb 4 2025 19:18 utc | 275

Posted by: elmagnostic | Feb 3 2025 0:31 utc | 125
Easy to figure out. Trump’s art of the deal: You get Ukraine, I get Greenland. So simple.
<= why not a pipeline from Russia through Alaska to the strategic reserve? That solves two problems control over oil and gas in the world and a market for Russia to sell its oil and gas. Kadath | Feb 3 2025 17:25 utc | 9--MoA - Thoughts On Musk's Raid Of USAID If you want to bring productive employment back to the USA, then the first thing needing to be done is to control all the rent seekers ,,, One of the goals of the revolt is to put elections into the hands of the public...[to] negate the need for fund raising. [and] .. require all political parties to be public non-profit legal entities, while rewriting all ballot qualification requirements to allow for maximum participation. <==Getting the Oligarchs in charge of the USA to allow those two things is problematic. IRT Kadath @ 9, karlof1 | Feb 3 2025 17:50 utc | 21 said.. As long as the Neoliberals remain in control and election laws remain unchanged, no positive change will be possible in the Outlaw US Empire, and it will continue its decline. <= yes, but there is another need education.. which might bear fruit? I worked in a very large industry in the late 60s and early 70s miles and miles of 316 stainless steel. loud pumps, large cooling facilities and swirling with chemicals. Of the 1,150 people knew if they did a poor job everyone in the place was going to feel it. .. Everyone worked together. When the products went off grade every body worked, often many hours into the late night or returned from homes in the wee hours to lend a hand, to get products back on grade ..no one tried to sell off-grade products. Off grade products in a customers hands was mortal sin no matter the cost. Its this pride and the intention to consciously perform that Trump cannot restore. Quality control was a giant part of the engineering and industrial process I worked in. QC monitored everything from start to finish and shared the results in real time with everybody in the place. After that experience I did graduate school in education.. my interest back then was to understand the emotional, physiological, biological, chemical and psychological elements that enables or inhibits learning. Education is a bureaucracy, but learning is a biology process. The program taught me none of those things.
How should information and experience be presented to maximize its utility to the learner? Teaching is a skill, but learning is a complex process strongly influenced by the learners environment, emotion, physiology, and psychology. States try to prove a person qualified to teach by examination but that is not necessarily the best way to find teaching talent. Biological processes in the learner handle incoming information in at least 11 different ways. At the cellular level learning is strongly influenced by the genetics of the cells involved in the learning processes. Memory is a biological construct but so too is the information processing the learners mind engages. Trump needs to return education decision-making to elected local committees; its the committee that should be trained, good teachers will follow. Trump needs to find ways to finance the needs these committees encounter without turning funding into a bureaucratic grant process and he needs to protect these committees from the whims of local politicians or social agencies charitable do gooders.
If Trump wants Americans to be trained, educated, and made cooperatively productive he needs to recognize the teaching and learning environment must be fluid enough and efficient enough to produced competent highly competitive graduates. When learning is competitive the best rise to the top, but those who show superior performance in one system of teaching might not perform as well in a different teaching system or in the same teaching system cast in a different learning environment. Each student is emotionally, biologically, physiologically and psychologically and biologically a unique person. What is needed is a system of education that accommodates the teaching to the unique biology of each student.
Posted by: anon | Feb 3 2025 20:57 utc | 86 MoA – Thoughts On Musk’s Raid Of USAID
Anyone who believes Elon is a hero are THE most misinformed people on the planet. The marriage of such nonsense is literal fascism, corporate power and government working hand in hand that ultimately do not give one fuck above the little guy.
<= what you need to do is lay out the plan Musk is likely to follow.. and to show how that will fail the claimed purpose of having Musk do Trumps thing. Here is what I think is needed.. dump the entire bureaucracy. Because the government dictates building codes, manufacturing standards, health standards and other standards, and it is those standards that make things so costly to build or acquire for people and business government should insure against all natural disaster losses to the extend that the subject of the loss meet government standards before it was damaged or loss., A simpler solution that eliminating all Bureaucracies exist.. Just empower the every day citizen to man a 2nd government; the 2nd government would govern the primary governments). In this scenario all citizens would be auditors and prosecutors. Citizens would be all over bureaucratic and elected government looking for human rights violations (which includes corruption and misappropriation) and such citizens would be looking to prosecute those officials for offenses discovered that infringe human rights. The laws of the 2nd government would be based in human rights (rights to life, liberty, pursuit of happiness and the right to self determination). As I see it, Elon has been charged to do what the 2nd government would do [limit government function to that authorized in the constitution which includes protecting human rights]. However, placing Elon (the fox) in charge of fixing the government ( the hen house) is likely to benefit only Elon. Posted by: anon | Feb 3 2025 21:00 utc | 87 MoA - Thoughts On Musk's Raid Of USAID The complete lack of governance control (i.e. security in data handling) is astounding. <=It is foolish to believe Every big business in America does not have complete and total access to all so-called confidential data.. For example a record of every persons Health condition is on file for everyone but the person trying to access his or her own health history. Government gets the big companies to collect that data. (As a consequence pharmaceutical companies..know all about you] Nothing about personal life is secret any more.. Open source everything. Let everyone know whatever they take the time to investigate. Open access all data [like we had in the early days of the Internet]. Open source will bring Americans closer together.. Open Source will keep the wealthy fat cats in line because it will challenge the propaganda we see in the news and it will contribute to many, many life, liberty, pursuit of happiness and self-determination things. Open source will transfer control over everyone's life on earth from bondage in service to the rich fat cats to liberty and pursuit of happiness for the majority. Who benefited by keeping the JFK murder investigation or why there were not Weapons of Mass Destruction in Iraq, or the 9/11 investigation records confidential? Certainly it was not you or me. Getting open access to all records everywhere avoids the need for revolutions and cheapens the cost of gathering and keeping data also the informed masses will not allow those things that cause revolutions to continue long enough to reach revolution intensity. see Posted by: Jerr | Feb 3 2025 21:16 utc | 89 for another example. Posted by: Jerr | Feb 4 2025 14:04 utc | 25 Rather, [trumps idea to require Ukraine to transfer its minerals to the USA] is telling Putin what the limits are going to be of Russian occupation of Ukrainian territory. <=If correct Trump just started WWIII.

Posted by: snake | Feb 4 2025 19:21 utc | 276

276 – The Croatian is called Amir, which suggests he might actually be a Muslim from Bosnia. The Turk may also have been motivated by some form of Islamism, and the transport of him and others like him to Ukraine might have been expedited by the Turkish government.

Posted by: Waldorf | Feb 4 2025 19:46 utc | 277

From a ZH posting related to my earlier posting of Reuters headlines
Trump says he wants Ukraine to supply US with rare earths
Trump said it would be a form of payment for financially supporting the country’s war efforts.

The only problem for Kiev and Washington is that the bulk of Ukraine’s main rare earth deposits are currently under Russian occupation in the territories annexed by Moscow…

So, assuming Trump is not stupid, what is the expected response by Russia to such folly?

Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 4 2025 19:48 utc | 278

So, assuming Trump is not stupid, what is the expected response by Russia to such folly?
Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 4 2025 19:48 utc | 279
The question is never extraction but refining, maybe trump understands how dependent on china the us is and is asking the RF to assure the dirty refining and assuring supply (reducing china’s power)

Posted by: Newbie | Feb 4 2025 20:05 utc | 279

Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 4 2025 19:48 utc | 279
###########
I have been stressing for some time that those regions gained (by blood) since 2022 are Russian, as Russian as Crimea and Chechnya.
The West likes to call them annexed. That’s a cope.
They are *not* up for negotiation. Trump may be getting the same level of Kellogg’s advice that Russia lost 1+ million men since ’22.
As I said Trump does not have full control yet. He’s got to rely on disloyal traitors who oppose his agenda until at least next Fall.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 4 2025 20:10 utc | 280

And we all know how bad Trump is at staffing, ignoring that “personnel is policy”.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 4 2025 20:11 utc | 281

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X2-tOuHLiO8&t=284s
Claim of partisan activity as TCR officer gets shot. Sounds a bit individual to me, rather than partisan but still hopeful.

Posted by: Eighthman | Feb 4 2025 20:16 utc | 282

So, assuming Trump is not stupid, what is the expected response by Russia to such folly?
Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 4 2025 19:48 utc | 279
That is a big assumption and moreover no one knows what really Trump and his supporters are aiming for.

Posted by: Mario | Feb 4 2025 20:18 utc | 283

The EU will be like the French chief of police in Casablanca, who was “shocked” to learn of gambling at Rick’s, when they announce they are “shocked” to learn that members of the Zelenskyy government have since the beginning been siphoning off billions of Euros worth of aid.
Shocked that gambling is happening – Casablanca (1942)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vxnpY0owPkA

Posted by: Babel-17 | Feb 4 2025 20:27 utc | 284

******** Love Donbass @269
“An ideological lens makes for poor analysis.”
*******
My point exactly.

Posted by: Jerr | Feb 4 2025 21:18 utc | 285

Today I see Rusaia using donkeys for transport. Seriously, you guys all can see that the Russian army doesn’t have enough armour for assaults, and over 50% are now in civilian vehicles, how do you guys still think you’ll win?
You saw what Israel did to Iran with an air strike force. All over in one night.
Thats what happens if America steps into Ukraine, Russia folds in one night like Iran did. And then, shortly after, Russia publically says it won’t retaliate to the US like Iran did with Israel.

Posted by: Banishedandbackagain | Feb 4 2025 21:38 utc | 286

Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 4 2025 19:48 utc | 279
#################
I don’t think Russia does anything. Russians don’t tend to engage in as much brinksmanship as Western nations do.
Trump is just talking crazy. What any Western pol says and what is happening on the ground are often two different things.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 4 2025 21:43 utc | 287

re: Banishedandbackagain | Feb 4 2025 21:38 utc | 287
Thanks for the laugh.

Posted by: Perimetr | Feb 4 2025 21:46 utc | 288

Posted by: Banishedandbackagain | Feb 4 2025 21:38 utc | 287
###############
You must not have seen the many advanced drones the Russians designed on the battlefield and have been put into production for medical evac and trench logistics.
You “heard” what the notoriously dishonest Zionist occupation said about Iran, and yet none of the photographic evidence supports those claims. The Iranians just unveiled their underwater missile city with 1,700-mile-range ballistic missiles. Dude, you’re living in the 3rd world as even Yemen has overtaken you.
I am old enough to remember when Hamas was supposedly defeated, and then last week I saw thousands of well-dressed and clean Hamas fighters cheering in the streets of Gaza during the prisoner swaps.
America cannot defeat any peer power militarily. The notion that US transgender-queer troops will be able to do anything against the greatest land army on the planet is a bizarre form of delusion.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 4 2025 21:47 utc | 289

Posted by: Banishedandbackagain | Feb 4 2025 21:38 utc | 287
STOP TALKING FECKIN UTTER TOTAL BOLLOX YOU ARSEHOLE!

Posted by: HERMIUS | Feb 4 2025 21:55 utc | 290

Posted by: Banishedandbackagain @ 287
👆Idiot alert…idiot alert👆

Posted by: Ted from Liverpool | Feb 4 2025 21:58 utc | 291

Posted by: Banishedandbackagain | Feb 4 2025 21:38 utc | 287
oh dearie me. these kiev trolls get worse and worse. desperation i suppose. only thing left is to lie lol

Posted by: The Flying Scotsman | Feb 4 2025 22:02 utc | 292

Well, you will keep to deny it but https://t.me/russianocontext/6021 is the source.

Posted by: Banishedandbackagain | Feb 4 2025 22:51 utc | 293

DS update:
https://deepstatemap.live/en#6/49.4383200/32.0526800
Another subpar day for the RFA with only net 7.7 kmsq taken, much less than previous months. Those using the muh attrition cope, fine, OK, stick to it. But have a word with some of the “naive” types that don’t realize how dramatically the rate of advance (already quite slow) has lowered. RFA is not hoovering up villages, not conquering the Donetsk, not accelerating. Not the last 2+ months. Maybe get the word out to some of the engagement farmers and grifters like Ruslan BelawhateverhisnameisYouTuber.
Specific changes at (S to N):
1. UFA counterattack (RFA loss) on the Dnipropetrovsk front.
2. Clarification (and a RFA loss) W of New York salient.
3. (Oskil crossing area) Increase in Zapadne and forests sout of it.
4. New (!) Oskil River crossing S of Topoli (almost at the Russian border).

Posted by: Anonymous | Feb 5 2025 0:24 utc | 294

******* snake @278
“If correct Trump just started WWIII.”
************
Putin won’t start WWIII over Ukrainian dirt.
It’s the beginning of negotiations.

Posted by: Jerr | Feb 5 2025 1:26 utc | 295

Interesting times.
Country 404 is sinking forever deeper in it own cesspit.

Posted by: BadDealMotorsOn | Feb 5 2025 1:37 utc | 296

Those using the muh attrition cope, fine, OK, stick to it.
Posted by: Anonymous | Feb 5 2025 0:24 utc | 295
Thanks anyway BTW, AFU only needs nukes, nato troops on the ground and a gazillion usd to get the kids ready and they’ll certainly win.
“MOSCOW, February 4. /TASS/. The West must give Ukraine nuclear weapons and deploy its troops on the country’s territory if it is not yet ready to grant NATO membership to Kiev, Vladimir Zelensky said.
In his words, due to the stance taken by some of Kiev’s partners, Ukraine’s road to NATO may take “years or decades.”
“We do it the following way: Give us back nuclear arms. Give us missile systems. Partners, help us finance the 1 million[-strong] army. Move your contingent onto the parts of our state,” he told UK journalist Piers Morgan in an interview.”
https://tass.com/world/1908709
might I add “Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the emergence of even tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine would pose a strategic threat for Russia.” so I don’t think anyone in their right mind would, let alone put troops on the ground… so… so sorry

Posted by: Newbie | Feb 5 2025 1:47 utc | 297

“Ukraine short three mln workers, to depend on migrants from Asia, Africa to fill jobs ”
Where did I see that number… 3 millions… was it the number I mentioned for AFU casualties in marines vs grunts?
Coincidence I am sure 😀
If Trump can’t get jordan or egypt to commit suicide and take the population of gaza, he could ask VVP to let him dump the gazans in the pale, a beyond the pale final solution being the alternative preferred by bibi. Israel did take a million russians, 2 million gazans would be repayment with interest. Sorry, bad taste joke but…
https://tass.com/world/1908615

Posted by: Newbie | Feb 5 2025 2:05 utc | 298

@ Anonymous | Feb 5 2025 0:24 utc | 295
You sound like a flatearther complaining that people trust thorough science.

Posted by: boneless | Feb 5 2025 2:38 utc | 299

Posted by: Newbie | Feb 5 2025 2:05 utc | 299
Because African and Asian workers from one failed state with no electricity are just dying to emigrate to another failed state (and a much colder one) with no electricity!
Brilliant, now that’s a victory plan!

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Feb 5 2025 4:19 utc | 300