Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
February 26, 2025

Ukraine - Minerals Deal Agreement, Lavrov Rejects Peacekeepers, War Destined To Become Trump's Vietnam

The New York Times reports (archived) that "Ukraine has agreed to turn over the revenue from some of its mineral resources to the United States".

Ukraine will get nothing of value in return for it. The (former) Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenski is expected to visit the White House of Friday to submit to the extraordinary extortion of his country.

The deal is imposed indentured servitude at scale:

a form of labor in which a person is contracted to work without salary for a specific number of years. The contract called an "indenture", may be entered voluntarily for a prepaid lump sum, as payment for some good or service (e.g. travel), purported eventual compensation, or debt repayment. An indenture may also be imposed involuntarily as a judicial punishment. The practice has been compared to the similar institution of slavery, although there are differences.

Ukraine is expected to get nothing, except more war, from this agreement. As Ted Snider describes it:

Normally, it is the country that defeated you in war, and not the country that defended you, that pillages you after the war. Unfortunately for Ukraine, its biggest military defender is set to pillage its resources as the two countries have now signed a minerals agreement after Trump warned that a refusal to sign would have led to “a lot of problems” for Ukraine.

Many mistakes have been made in the war over Ukraine’s minerals: Zelensky may have made a mistake in his strategy, and Trump may be mistaken in facts.
...
[T]he ones who will suffer from the American pillaging of Ukraine will be the people of Ukraine. All of that revenue that will be exported out of the country is money that could now be spent on defense and later spent on rebuilding the tattered economy and reconstructing the shattered nation.

Ukrainian media just published the full text of the agreement. Strana summarizes it as follows (machine translation):

The main thing that becomes clear from the published draft agreement:

  • It does not guarantee the security of Ukraine from the United States, as Vladimir Zelensky insisted. Security guarantees are mentioned only once: "The United States Government supports Ukraine's efforts to obtain the security guarantees necessary to create a lasting peace." That is, it is not about providing security guarantees, but about "supporting Ukraine's efforts" to obtain them. Moreover, the logic of the text implies that these guarantees should be given by someone other than the United States, otherwise it would look strange that Washington supports efforts to obtain guarantees from itself.
  • The text does not specify who and how will manage the work of the fund, which will receive funds from revenues from the development of Ukrainian deposits. As stated, this will be written out in a separate agreement on the fund, which has not yet been prepared and must be ratified by the parliament. However, it is stipulated that the management will be joint, as well as the content, and "the powers of representatives of the US government in the decision-making process will be within the limits permitted by the current legislation of the United States." That is, the American fund managers will operate in their own jurisdiction, and not in the Ukrainian one.
  • The Fund will receive income from the future monetization of all relevant natural resource assets that are state-owned by Ukraine-regardless of whether they are directly or indirectly owned by the state. It is stipulated that we are not talking about income from already operating enterprises.
  • Ukraine will "contribute to the fund 50% of all proceeds received from the future monetization of all relevant natural resource assets," no matter what ownership they are. The United States will also contribute.
  • Contributions made to the fund will be reinvested in Ukraine at least once a year. The amount of reinvestment is not specified. Its procedure will be defined in the future agreement on the fund.

There are so many vague points in the agreement that it is hard to evaluate its consequences.

I find it difficult to imagine that any Ukrainian parliament or its fascists 'nationalists' will agree to it:

In their eagerness to align with Western powers, Ukrainian officials are effectively endorsing policies that undermine the nation’s autonomy. Rather than pursuing an independent economic strategy, Ukraine continues to adopt arrangements that leave it vulnerable to external western manipulation.
...
This deal highlights the dangers of Ukraine’s continued reliance on Western aid. True national strength and independence cannot be achieved through mechanisms that strip away a country’s natural wealth and leave it perpetually indebted to external powers.

It is also doubtful that the agreement will withstand legal challenges. There are serious rumors that Zelenski had already sold Ukraine's minerals to Britain.

In other news the Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation Lavrov has (again) rejected the stationing of any European 'peacekeepers' in Ukraine:

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Wednesday that Moscow could not consider "any options" for European peacekeepers being sent to Ukraine and that the idea was aimed at fuelling the conflict and making it harder to de-escalate.

President Macron of France and Prime Minister Starmer of Great Britain have said that they were willing to deploy their forces in Ukraine. Both however have asked for U.S. backing which the Trump administration is unlike to offer. Russia will in any case be hostile to it:

Lavrov, who has previously called the proposal "unacceptable," set out Moscow's objections to any deployment in some of the strongest terms yet, removing any doubt about the matter after Trump's suggestion that Putin had come round to the idea.

"We cannot consider any options" when it comes to European peacekeepers, he said during a visit to Qatar.

By pressing for the agreement, instead of taking the Russian offer for access to minerals, Trump has committed himself to continue the war in Ukraine.

Michael Tracey @mtracey - 23:39 UTC · Feb 25, 2025

After Ukraine agrees to the mineral "deal," Trump says in return Ukraine receives "the right to fight on." He boasts that he was the one who first gave Javelins to Ukraine, which wiped out a lot of Russian tanks. He says US weapons could continue to flow to Ukraine "for awhile"
Embedded video

It will lead to the failure of his peace initiative.

The war Ukraine is now destined to become Trump's Vietnam.

Posted by b on February 26, 2025 at 14:41 UTC | Permalink

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Well, in the last month the Ruble has gained both on EUR and USD, testing mid 2024 highs again. Still a long way from pre-SMO levels, let alone the pre-Maidan good old days.

I would be looking at market sentiment as a gauge of how long the sanctions and war are expected to last, as opposed to what Agent Orange bloviates about.

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=EUR&to=RUB&view=1M

Posted by: Rubiconned | Feb 26 2025 14:53 utc | 1

I posted this originally in the last thread, but since this opened up I'll repost here

I've been kicking around that Trump is trying to create a modern version of the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact. In the original Molotov–Ribbentrop pact Germany and the Soviet Union, signed a temporary non-aggression pact and agreed to divide Poland between the two of them. The Soviets wanted parts of Poland to provide strategic depth to delay the invasion from Germany once the war began and it wanted the non-aggression pact to buy time to reorganize its army and economy for the upcoming war. German wanted back the territory it had lost at the end of WW1 (plus some extra as interest) but it also wanted a non-aggression pact so it could focus on trying to convince England and France to join Germany in declaring war on the Soviet Union.

I think the US is attempting something similar here, cut a deal with the Russians to divide Ukraine between them. Russia will get something like 80-90% of what it wants but the US's real goal is a (temporary) non-aggression pact with Russia so the US can beat the Europeans & Canadians into line and pillage them economically. The US will recapitalize itself with wealth stolen from the Europeans and then confront the Chinese and Russians in another 5-10 yrs. This time using the desperate and impoverished European masses as cannon fodder.

Posted by: Kadath | Feb 26 2025 14:55 utc | 2

I guess I've been listening to Scott Ritter too much because I'm now optimistic about Trump's agenda. All Trump needs to do, and all he CAN do is try to save face for the empire's dismal defeat. I believe that he should be able to pull that off. If he is being genuine about his intentions.

Posted by: Ralph Conner | Feb 26 2025 15:01 utc | 3

It's all speculation, but I find the idea, that for Zelensky the main objective in all of this was the signature ceremony, somewhat plausible. From his personal view the threat of elections and the question of his legitimacy are of great concern. An official signature at the White House gives him the legitimacy he seeks. Anything that happens after the war is not so much his problem.
But the situation is so volatile, any guess of the consequences is as good as any other.

Posted by: Hamburger | Feb 26 2025 15:11 utc | 4

Posted by: Rubiconned | Feb 26 2025 14:53 utc | 1


If you export your way to growth. What good is a strong Ruble? When having a strong Ruble kills somebody your exports.

It is all about context.

Trumpian Phoneyfart wants a very strong $ but also wants to export more. He is that dumb he can't see the MASSIVE contradictions in his plans.

Why ?

His gold standard and fixed exchange rate type goggles of course that he wears 24/7.

Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Feb 26 2025 15:12 utc | 5

I hope this ridiculous 'deal' is set up to antagonize Zelensky enough to allow Trump walk away from him. A hope, not an analysis.

Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 26 2025 15:16 utc | 6

@Kadath | Feb 26 2025 14:55 utc | 3
I am not defending Hitler in any way but it is conceivable that Hitler would have been content if he obtained peace with Britain.
Britains whole idea was to first aid the nazis to control Germany in order to make sure the jewish financiers would have to remain close to Britain and then to allow Hitler to march until he was in direct contact with the USSR via Slovakia. Stalin warned Hitler about the two-front war he would face thus the M-R pact.
The British had no intention to accept Hitler as an equal, something Hitler was hoping for after Germany had been conditioned by Houston Chamberlain for several decades. Something the court historians carefully omit and likewise all TV documentaries I have encountered.
It is therefore conceivable that Hitler would have accepted the gains made (with the help of Britain).
Without peace in the west Hitler's war economy made it necessary to act fast. I repeat that I am in no way defending Hitler. He like all the other actors depended on the financier and corporate oligarchy. And they would be likely to calculate the options with a modicum of realism.

Posted by: petergrfstrm | Feb 26 2025 15:18 utc | 7

It might be OK. So, maybe the Rada and courts reject the agreement and Trump headlines the response as Ukraine being useless and their agreement meaning nothing - which we already know. Trump's way out is to use intelligence on Zelensky to vilify and destroy him - although that still leaves his regime in charge even if he dies or goes into exile.

I can't see Ukraine capitulation in any formal sense. Weird as it sounds, I can't think of any war in which the losing side just decided to never surrender and didn't regardless of losses - but who knows? Sure, Hungary, Poland and Romania could help by seizing territory but I say that they're too cowardly to do that. It ain't Czechoslovakia.

Posted by: Eighthman | Feb 26 2025 15:35 utc | 8

Normally, it is the country that defeated you in war, and not the country that defended you, that pillages you after the war

hear hear

Posted by: exile | Feb 26 2025 15:45 utc | 9

Just watch ...


On Friday it will be claimed and shouted from the rooftops that American taxpayers are getting their money back.

That will be the propaganda. The framing and narrative used to promote the deal.

Of course this is the exact same propaganda, and framing and propaganda that DOGE is using. Gold standard and fixed exchange rate type bullshit.

American tax payers won't get ANYTHING back. Why ?

Because they didn't give anything in the first place. As their taxes don't fund the federal government spending.


So why then are DOGE and also this propaganda, narrative and framing being used about the deal. When the reality is all they are doing is saving keystrokes.

Saving the government money as if it is a household. Tax payers get nothing and all that happens in the end is the US government doesn't use as many keystrokes.


Saving government keystrokes as if you can run out of government keystrokes is pure unadulterated gold standard and fixed exchange rate type thinking. They are dumb you see.


If they want to give people tax cuts then give people tax cuts. As taxes don't fund the government anyway. Then American tax payers might actually get something rather than this whole nonsensical gold standard, fixed exchange rate type obsession of saving government keystrokes. The public get absolutely nothing out of it.


Since US states are currency users and not currency issuers and US states are like a household. Then their public purpose and public infrastructure suffers.


Simple .....


Just credit every US state reserve account at the FED with keystrokes. Then cut taxes right across the board.

Then the American public get their tax cuts and US states balance sheets don't suffer.

Now everybody benefits rather than this fucking obsession with saving keystrokes.

Will it be inflationary ?


¯\_(ツ)_/¯

That depends on each individual state and how they spend it. If they buy every one in the state a dog. The price of dogs will rise.


The US states will need to ensure and invest wisely in their productive capacity as a state. Plan and make sure they have enough skills and real resources to meet the increase in demand the tax cuts will cause. They don't need to spend all the keystrokes at once. They can spend it gradually over time making sure investments target areas where bottle necks might appear. Increasing productive capacity that always pushes the inflation threat out into the future.

It is a win, win for everybody.


If their is inflation the Governor and his team get sacked for being incompetent. They weren't up to the job. Just wanted paid to be seen in photographs in local paper cutting ribbons and promoting charities.


Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Feb 26 2025 15:45 utc | 10

Good analysis, B. It also aligns well with Dima's opening 5 mins or so of the Military Summary Channel video. And adds some additional detail.


The Fund will receive income from the future monetization of all relevant natural resource assets that are state-owned by Ukraine-regardless of whether they are directly or indirectly owned by the state.

It is stipulated that we are not talking about income from already operating enterprises.
Ukraine will "contribute to the fund 50% of all proceeds received from the future monetization of all relevant natural resource assets," no matter what ownership they are. The United States will also contribute.

Let's apply some reasoning.

1. By definition, private sector entities like Naftagaz and Ukrenegro are EXCLUDED! That means by inference any private enterprise operating in Ukraine like Metinvest will be under no obligation to send money to the fund.

2. By way of facts on the ground, the Donbas and the other four oblasts that Russia legally controls will be excluded. Possession is 9/10ths of the law. So the pie is already half-eaten, maybe more.

3. The US will contribute some money - except that is an illusory promise. Congress would need to approve funding, or private sector actors would need to step up (hello, Blackrock?)

The Fund will receive income from the future monetization of all relevant natural resource assets that are state-owned by Ukraine-regardless of whether they are directly or indirectly owned by the state. It is stipulated that we are not talking about income from already operating enterprises.

1. There goes Metinvest - they're excluded, too. The oligarchs will be happy! Existing deposits they control are a no-go.

2. Key term: State-owned. To implement this crazy scheme, a future Ukrainian government would have to nationalize or create a new public-private partnership to extract fugitive minerals (gas, oil) and extract any non-fugitive minerals such as lithium. This entity does not exist currently. And it would have a small slice of the pie, as the excluded existing private companies like Metinvest do not need to participate.

This essentially reduces to a 50% tax on future income from state-owned entities, or new private-public partnerships that may or may not form. Current oligarchs and private companies like Metinvest need not worry about it, except that in the future they may face competition over new resources from the state-owned entity. It's a pig in a poke, a joke.

As for Trump's intentions, who knows. He may be attempting merely to save face for the upcoming catastrophe. I agree that the longer he persists in being double-minded (says he wants peace, but continues with past behavior of trying to have it both ways) the more he "owns" the tar baby.

The rubber is going to meet the road soon. I doubt that there is much left of the $4B that Biden left in authorized spending on military support. There was a $50B allocation back in April of last year, so roughly 92% was spent when Biden left office. They can dole it out in dribs and drabs but it probably will be totally spent by April, if not already.


Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Feb 26 2025 15:48 utc | 11

thanks b...

as @ 6 norwegian says - a few of us share this viewpoint... here is william gruff on the previous thread -

@ William Gruff | Feb 26 2025 14:56 utc | 355 quote -

"Trump's minerals-for-US-support deal isn't intended to be signed. It is intended to be a deal too terrible for the Ukraine to agree to, and The Ukraine's refusal gives the US the pretext to walk away."

that makes sense to me..

Posted by: james | Feb 26 2025 15:47 utc | 361

Posted by: james | Feb 26 2025 15:51 utc | 12

It's just a confirmation of the extraordinary weakness of the Ukrainian position. If they had a chance of surviving any other way, Zelensky would not have accepted such humiliating terms, which don't even guarantee Ukraine's survival. But he could get nothing more.

Posted by: laguerre | Feb 26 2025 15:51 utc | 13

First, the Outlaw US Empire has not "defended" Ukriane; in 2014, it attacked Ukraine, took over its government and began the war against the resistance with its Nazi Terrorists. That Trump confesses to aiding the process of the war during his first term is notable. Second, Zelensky is illegitimate and has no standing to do anything legal such as sign a contract for the sale of Ukrainian assets. Third, as I concluded after musing about the various legal aspects of ending the conflict, "The Ukraine Conflict's Legal Issues", unless it is appointed as the agent (power of attorney) to represent Ukraine's position in negotiations, the Outlaw US Empire has no agency, so standing, to negotiate for Ukraine; thus, the current planned negotiations with Russia have no legal standing. Indeed, IMO Zelensky has no power, no legal standing, to lift his no negotiation edict, nor can he name any agent to represent Ukraine. All this legal standing Putin has gone over during the last year has real bearing on the legitimacy of any peace agreement and is why nothing of substance can be accomplished until Zelensky's replaced.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 26 2025 15:52 utc | 14

The Ukrainians called Trump's bluff? Team Trump will now have to up the ante to force the Ukraine to fold.

Posted by: William Gruff | Feb 26 2025 15:53 utc | 15

Rats--no standing.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 26 2025 15:55 utc | 16

Posted by: laguerre | Feb 26 2025 15:51 utc | 13

The terms are not as horrible as was first reported before Zelensky threw his tantrum. They're actually worse for the US - all of existing Ukrainian private industry is carved out, and the US would need to send MORE money (either through Congress or private sector companies investing in the fund.)

If two weeks ago Trump was looking at a full large pizza, now there are maybe a couple of cold slices left.

I actually am impressed with Z-man's ability to negotiate, not that the deal ever has a chance of being realized.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Feb 26 2025 15:57 utc | 17

So who is backing the (MFDC) to upset Senegal - is it Putin or the USA, or more likely Senegal's former colonisers the French.

"Bissau-Guinean President Umaro Sissoco Embalo has called Russia “a reliable partner” during a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Thursday.

“We thank you for increasing the quota for our military personnel, police officers, and students. Some [Russian] companies are also interested in developing relations with Guinea-Bissau. We [Russia and Guinea-Bissau] are reliable partners,” Embalo said."

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Feb 26 2025 16:00 utc | 18

I see it a bit different.
First and foremost nato aggression against Russia completely unbacked by a capable military in the face of an ever stronger Russia has completely failed.
Trump sees this, Europe doesn't. So Trump doing a security deal with Russia and to hell with the Europeans makes sense.
That will get spun to US voters as
* "European cock up which should neveer have involved USA (smirk)".
* Great for US which will now concentrate on China (with China and Russia separated as an obvious lie)
* A Financial victory because of the minerals (which probably don't exist or won't be mind)
This is a sales pitch not a reality.

Obiously there will be no nato presence in Ukraine, not unless nato somehow defeats Russia first. "We will place troops" is simply a tactic to delay truth telling and slow down the US/Russia deal.

Trump really doesn't care what happens in Ukraine, if there is a deal or even if Ukraine burns a second million troops.

Posted by: Michael Droy | Feb 26 2025 16:01 utc | 19

This might help:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qzCu-inyCyI

I thought this might be about Starmer as the next visit scheduled. Alex Krainer makes the point partway through the video linked above for this morning's Dialogue Works -- that the 100 year agreement Starmer obtained from Zelenski in January already includes the promise of Ukraine's assets to Britain. Trump already knows this. Putin knows this. So, the plot thickens maybe.

Posted by: juliania | Feb 26 2025 16:01 utc | 20

The Ukraine conflict is not about creating a new world order; it is the final chapter of the Cold War. Sir Kier Stamer will discuss the 100-years legally binding country with Mr. Donald John Trump on Friday holding back-to-back meetings with the President. Rest assured the world is not returning to the old Cold War dynamic. Trump’s attempts to redefine Western alliances are part of a broader, chaotic transformation of global politics. He’s trapped between the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China. Trump’s solution is to give up, do the honourable thing and surrender. If there were to be any dialogue it must be founded on an equal and mutually respectful basis, aiming not for a fleeting truce, but for a lasting peace grounded in respect for the legitimate interests of all states and peoples in the region. It needs to be expressed however, that the present international situation, in which the aggressive and bellicose nature of the imperialists is most openly expressed in history and war and bloodshed become commonplaces, requires the armed forces of any BRIICS+ country to perfectly cope with a war. Trump has a country to save but personally in my experience the US of A can no longer be saved.

Posted by: pepe | Feb 26 2025 16:01 utc | 21

*** unless it is appointed as the agent (power of attorney) to represent Ukraine's position in negotiations, the Outlaw US Empire has no agency, so standing, to negotiate for Ukraine; thus, the current planned negotiations with Russia have no legal standing. Indeed, IMO Zelensky has no power, no legal standing, to lift his no negotiation edict, nor can he name any agent to represent Ukraine. ***

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 26 2025 15:52 utc | 14

The actions of an actor without actual authority can be ratified by the principal, which dispenses with the standing issues. In this way, talks can go forward without the principal endorsing the position of the actor who acts "off reservation." So the US is not stating the official position of anyone under the present circumstances.

Posted by: frithguild | Feb 26 2025 16:06 utc | 22

*** They're actually worse for the US - all of existing Ukrainian private industry is carved out, and the US would need to send MORE money (either through Congress or private sector companies investing in the fund.) ***

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Feb 26 2025 15:57 utc | 18

Leaving open the path to a grand real estate development deal.

Posted by: frithguild | Feb 26 2025 16:10 utc | 23

I note that Lavrov's remarks and Q&A with media in Qatar are significant but too lengthy to place in a comment here. I'll have them translated and available in about 90 minutes. His remarks went well beyond peacekeepers and also deal with Syria, Palestine and Lebanon.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 26 2025 16:10 utc | 24

Russia will control (some) mineral rights after the war?

[thinking out loud, trying to fit the pieces together]

One way of looking at this:

A Trump agreement with Russia to end the Ukraine war would include a clause about
protecting/respecting the rights of US businesses.

Zelensky can choose, does he want Russia-friendly owners of (some) Ukraine resources
or US-friendly owners?

So this isn't so much Zelensky surrendering resources to the US as it is
keeping those resources out of Russian hands.

Posted by: librul | Feb 26 2025 16:13 utc | 25

What was that old phrase of Henry Kissinger?

"It may be dangerous to be the US enemy, but is fatal to an ally"

Posted by: canuck | Feb 26 2025 16:17 utc | 26

Excellent! Hopefully Trump et al make some serious coin out of this. /s

Posted by: Mike Adamson | Feb 26 2025 16:17 utc | 27

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenski is expected to visit the White House of Friday to submit to the extraordinary extortion of his country.

Better the extraordinary extortion of his country than the extraordinary extortion of ours. Just sayin'...

Posted by: Phil R | Feb 26 2025 16:19 utc | 28

Posted by: juliania | Feb 26 2025 16:01 utc | 21

##########

I posted the same thesis about Starmer days ago.

Alex and I share the same lens on all of this.

The UK is at the center of everything Ukraine.

Not Germany, not France, not Poland.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 26 2025 16:19 utc | 29

Posted by: james | Feb 26 2025 15:51 utc | 12 I lost the train of argument when I asked whether Trump needs an excuse to walk away? My perception is, he does not. All he has to do is blame Biden for losing, but he's already passed. Maybe that's because he judges saying Russia won is admitting defeat? Because his military people still say Ukraine can hold on for some time? Blaming Biden for not making peace isn't the same thing. Worse that sets him up for failure to make peace.

Second, if the goal really was to force Zelensky into refusing, the more detail, the less vagueness, the more likely to force Zelensky into refusing. A vague agreement that doesn't really mean much is exactly the wriggle room Zelensky has to sign, then to renege when needed. The more likely interpretation is that it is a figleaf to justify not walking away, providing a promise of future wealth to justify continued investment.

In short, I am far more in agreement with our host than with the pushback in the comments.

Posted by: steven t johnson | Feb 26 2025 16:19 utc | 30

It would much better: politically, morally, economically and spiritually for the Rada to prostrate themselves to Russia and let Russia rebuild the vanquished state than have the US, England and God knows whom else in the West to pillage your now pitiful country.

Posted by: canuck | Feb 26 2025 16:21 utc | 31

Yes, Trump is a blowhard and not well thought out. Nonetheless, it's still probably too soon to say whether this will be his Vietnam. Russia clearly doesn't want to move too quickly and it takes two to tango.

Patiently observing....

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Feb 26 2025 16:23 utc | 32

Posted by : Ghost of Zanon/ Feb 26 2025 15:48 utc

"As for Trump's intentions, who knows..."

Indeed. Tariffs on, tariffs off, tariffs later? Now this...(Before annexation too!) And I thought I heard him say 'We don't need any oil from Canada, we have more than enough of our own.'


Trump Says He Wants Keystone XL Pipeline Built NOW...

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/keystone-xl-pipeline-trump-1.7468072

"...Trump's enthusiasm for the project has left some scratching their heads about his ultimate game plan for Canadian energy, given that he's still threatening a 10 per cent tariff on Canadian crude oil, set to take effect in early March.

'The big question is: what does the administration really want? said James Coleman, an energy law professor at the University of Minnesota.

In a statement, Carolyn Svokin, a spokesperson for Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson, said Canada is open to a 'productive conversation on the subject...'

On X, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith struck an enthusiastic tone about Trump's pitch saying she agreed the project shouldn't have been scrapped in the first place.

'Let's also scrap those inflationary tariff ideas and focus on getting shovels in the ground right away! she wrote..."


WTF?!

Posted by: John Gilberts | Feb 26 2025 16:23 utc | 33

Trump has granted Zelensky the right to continue fighting a war against Russia with this 'deal' for rare earth minerals. Some advocates for Ukraine's Russian speaking population and who oppose NATO's encirclement of Russia were expecting Trump to end the war. Expecting any decent policies from a crony capitalist demagogue will almost always lead to disappointment.

Posted by: Keme | Feb 26 2025 16:23 utc | 34

@ LoveDonbass | Feb 26 2025 16:19 utc | 31

alex shared that bit more then a week ago.. maybe you picked up on it earlier, lol..

@ steven t johnson | Feb 26 2025 16:19 utc | 32

correct me if i am wrong steven, but the usa are bad losers and never accept that they have lost.. it is incumbent on the president of the usa to make like they are the greatest country in the world and that they never lose or admit defeat!!

for the record, what zelensky does here is irrelevant as i see it.. from a legal standpoint, he has no basis for anything..

Posted by: james | Feb 26 2025 16:23 utc | 35

[email protected] a production, eh? Little old England, toofless, no army, no navy, no air farce, defanged, militarily out gunned by any group with working spears....and they, without losing one piece of military hardware on company time, a division, a battalion, a company, a section, never even lost a section of men to the vaunted Russian forces and they secured all the rights to the mineral wealth of the Ukraine....now that's long game, 100 years worth.

Cheers M

....never trust the Brits, look what they did to Riel, and when Brit lawyers are involved, they command the English language especially legalease.....

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Feb 26 2025 16:28 utc | 36

Brilliant move to introduce fiscal accountability in Ukraine. Ha Ha Ha no more free money for Ukrainian tribe is the worst thing that could've happened in this country. What grants ? ? ? Grants aren't meant to be repaid - screaming are those who stolen half of it. Fiscal accountability for Ukraine is a brilliant gesture by AFPI. Huge point for team Trump. Next step is to recover stolen funds and sold weapons.

Posted by: Alex Vadim | Feb 26 2025 16:28 utc | 37

Tbh, his bragging is wake up to some in Russia and some analysts in the alternative media who for a moment thought Trump is some kind of knight in shining Orange armour.

Heck, even Putin started mumbling about 'joint ventures' with US to exploit rare earth minerals while US hasn't even officially stopped arm supply!

It is inline with his narcissistic personality.
Narcissists believe that they are more capable, smarter and better at everything than most people.
I am not surprised at all that he wants to take an ownership because he believes he can come on top .

Posted by: Kim | Feb 26 2025 16:29 utc | 38

Posted by: Waldorf | Feb 26 2025 16:13 utc | 26

15 - No pretence of Germany having an independent judiciary, then...

Good point. So a journalist need to ask: "So Mr. Merz what happens if the judiciary independently arrests Netanhayu?, because they are independent you know".

Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Feb 26 2025 16:32 utc | 39

*** A Trump agreement with Russia to end the Ukraine war would include a clause about protecting/respecting the rights of US businesses.
***
So this isn't so much Zelensky surrendering resources to the US as it is keeping those resources out of Russian hands.
***
Posted by: librul | Feb 26 2025 16:13 utc | 27

Hungary, Serbia and Slovakia want unimpeded trade with the RF, especially petrochemical. Galicia/Volynia, after years of hatred against the RF being stoked, will oppose this to their last breath. A corridor that connects the RF to Eastern Europe at minimum through Bukovina and Rusyn speaking lands is now a hot property. Little wonder why Călin Georgescu has been called in for questioning. Who gets the position of the Developer for this corridor? Not the Belt and Road people I can tell you.

Posted by: frithguild | Feb 26 2025 16:36 utc | 40

I don't really see how this is comparable to Vietnam. Ukraine is on the verge of defeat. The Vietnamese resistance and North Vietnamese didn't need external allies or world powers intervening on their behalf. They had the Yankees on the ropes the whole time. The situation is the opposite with the Ukros. But unless the Eurotrash really send forces that they don't have, how could this war possibly drag on past September?

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Feb 26 2025 16:37 utc | 41

Canuck @33
You forgot the top dog there, the UK. I believe there is a consensus here that the City is controlling everything in ukraine and it will sure as hell come out in the wash that the meddling and the instigating is all done by the bankster ((cabal)) that nobody has the guts to mention or blame.

Posted by: bisfugged | Feb 26 2025 16:41 utc | 42

Some of us believe that Putin was trolling Trump about joint ventures for Russian resources.

Between Lavrov and Putin, the Russians are treating Trump with respect but it does not seem that they are taking him seriously any longer.

And why should they? He's never ended America's involvement.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 26 2025 16:41 utc | 43

At least I get fun headlines like these now..

"The world is listening to Russia again. From the ruins of Ukraine, it makes me want to scream
Oleksandr Mykhed"

Yay!

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Feb 26 2025 16:42 utc | 44

Posted by: librul | Feb 26 2025 16:13 utc | 27

Guys I will say this one more time. The real Game is refining the metals cheaper using crude chlorinization and other refining techniques that are very efficient but quite pollutants and banned all over the word but not in China.

That's why China controls the rare earths market because the refining cost are so low comparatively.

Both the US and Russia can use the polluting processes in Ukraine's jurisdiction for neither country wants China controlling the market.

I have a deposit of rare earths up North but they aren't economic because the refining would be cost prohibitive.

Posted by: canuck | Feb 26 2025 16:51 utc | 45

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 26 2025 16:41 utc | 45

You reminded me the meme with Tucker and "the Russians"
Tucker : So Mr president, what do you think of the US ?
VVP's answer : 150 lines on very fine prints (unreadable)...
Tucker : So Mr Lavrov , what do you think of the US ?
Lavrov's answer : "Morons."

Guess who's the diplomat ?

Posted by: Savonarole | Feb 26 2025 16:52 utc | 46

Posted by: canuck | Feb 26 2025 16:21 utc | 33

It would much better: politically, morally, economically and spiritually for the Rada to prostrate themselves to Russia and let Russia rebuild the vanquished state than have the US, England and God knows whom else in the West to pillage your now pitiful country.

Eventually the Ukrainians will do that. For whatever reason, historically it seems to me that Ukrainians constantly do this to themselves. Zelensky will go down in the books along with Skoropadskyi, Petliua, Mazepa, the list goes on, as Ukrainians who sold their people out and went whichever way the wind blew. Maybe Zelensky will get an opera written for him like Mazepa did.
They need another Nestor Makhno.
Чому не вийшло? - Why Didn't it Work? (Ukrainian Anarchist Song)

Posted by: lex talionis | Feb 26 2025 16:55 utc | 47

"Canuck @33
You forgot the top dog there, the UK. I believe there is a consensus here that the City is controlling everything in ukraine and it will sure as hell come out in the wash that the meddling and the instigating is all done by the bankster ((cabal)) that nobody has the guts to mention or blame."

Posted by: bisfugged | Feb 26 2025 16:41 utc | 44

Thank you for the correction-I just don't do it explicitly because many dullards on this blog don't understand the above......yet.

Kinda like when many in the later 1800's and later denounced Darwin's theory of evolution.

Herds are tough to turn around.

Posted by: canuck | Feb 26 2025 16:57 utc | 48

Comments from Ukrainian PM Denys Shmygal:

The agreement of Ukraine with the United States on minerals has been prepared, it is directly tied to security guarantees for Ukraine.

Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced this on the air of a telethon, the Ukrainian News agency reports.

"The agreement has been prepared. Today the government will consider the text of this agreement, authorize ministers to sign it later during the negotiations between the Presidents of Ukraine and the U.S. on security guarantees," he said.

Shmyhal stressed that Ukraine is not considering signing any agreements without security guarantees.

"We are not considering signing any agreements without security guarantees, and of course, today, during two weeks of intensive work between the governments of the United States and Ukraine on the agreement on our economic cooperation, we have actually worked out the final version. As of today, this agreement is called the Agreement on Establishing the Rules and Conditions of the Investment Fund for the Reconstruction of Ukraine. And in fact, this is a preliminary agreement that provides for legal action - this is the future creation of an investment fund for the reconstruction of Ukraine, where both Ukraine and the United States will manage this fund on an equal footing, fill it... This agreement is directly tied to security guarantees, neither the President nor the government will consider this agreement and its signing in isolation from security guarantees for Ukraine," the Prime Minister said.

Shmyhal noted that the preamble to the agreement states that it is taken into account that the American people want to invest together with Ukraine in a free, sovereign and secure Ukraine.

He added that in this preliminary agreement, paragraph 10 states that this agreement on the fund is an integral element of the architecture of bilateral and multilateral agreements, as well as specific steps to establish lasting peace, strengthen economic and security stability and reflect the goals set out in the preamble to this agreement, and the U.S. government supports Ukraine's efforts to obtain security guarantees necessary to create lasting peace.

At the same time, Shmyhal noted that security guarantees for Ukraine are President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's victory plan, where the first point is NATO for Ukraine or other strong security guarantees.

He also said that the agreement is about establishing the rules and conditions of the reconstruction investment fund in order to deepen the partnership between the U.S. and Ukraine.

"Ukraine's contribution is considered to be part of our future income... That is, future income received by Ukraine from rents or licenses for minerals, from dividends on infrastructure facilities used for the transportation or extraction of the relevant minerals. This will be Ukraine's contribution. We will invest 50% of such income in this joint fund for the recovery of Ukraine with the United States," the Prime Minister said.

According to him, the United States will also make corresponding contributions for its part.

Such a fund will invest these funds from Ukraine and the United States in the development of Ukraine, in recovery and security.

"The fund will be managed by the governments of Ukraine and the United States, this is joint management. And accordingly, the reinvested income that is contributed to the fund will be reinvested. All decisions will be made with the consent of both participants," Shmyhal said.

https://ukranews.com/en/news/1066939-agreement-with-us-on-minerals-prepared-it-is-directly-tied-to-security-guarantees-shmyhal

Notable that he raises the topic of US security guarantees again.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 26 2025 16:57 utc | 49

Posted by: Savonarole | Feb 26 2025 16:52 utc | 46

########

Exactly.

As I have been banging on about for some time, the US doesn't have anything Russia wants. The Yankees could end the SMO but the Russians have come too far and lost too many lives to compromise on their original (maximalist) goals.

If America won't end it, Russia will.

On their terms.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 26 2025 17:03 utc | 50

sean the leperspawn @ 36
I'm getting sick and tired of your stupid, smarmy commentary like you have the inside track on everything. You know nothing sean blow!(hard). Don't even go on about Riel, sacrificed by Common Law that was twisted and corrupted in the late 1600's you have no clue.

The MAIN reason the brits have their finger in the pie of every flashpoint in the world is b/c they either own it outright or think they do. It's the tiny hats bro controlling AND influencing because the Red Shield has their "agents" everywhere...

Posted by: bisfugged | Feb 26 2025 17:05 utc | 51

Canuck @ 38

Too true but I hope soon enough that many will wake up to that fact.

"Herds are tough to turn around" wonderful and apt description bud.

My fav- "it is easier to fool someone that try to convince them that they have been fooled"

Posted by: bisfugged | Feb 26 2025 17:09 utc | 52

Latest from Twitter.

Lord Bebo
@MyLordBebo
·
13m

🇺🇸🇺🇦 Zelensky says he knows nothing about the meeting with Trump, when and in what format it will take place

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 26 2025 17:11 utc | 53

- Precisely, that were my thoughts as well.
- I think the Ukraine was put under an enormous pressure and threatneded with withdrawal of ALL US funds. Remeber what happened to USAID ? And how USAID helped Zelensky's propaganda machine ?

- Peacekeepers could / are always infiltrated with intellignece agents. No wonder Lavrov doesn't want any peacekeepers in the Ukraine / Donbas.

Posted by: WMG | Feb 26 2025 17:12 utc | 54

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 26 2025 16:57 utc | 49

So what does the US get from this? If they also need to fill in 50% of the fund, it is an obligation not a win.

This fund will then finance Ukraine security, meaning weapons intelligence etc. And the US pays half of it.

Where is the added value for the US? They already finance security in Ukraine…

Posted by: alek_a | Feb 26 2025 17:12 utc | 55

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 26 2025 16:10 utc | 24

Lavrov Q&A, a cold shower. Lots of stuff in it, but I'll take the last paragraph after a good dressing to Mr. Merz, the probable new Chancellor.

Therefore, Mr. F. Merz has quite aggressive views so far. It often happens that when a person turns from a candidate into a functioning political statesman, in this case into a chancellor, their views become more realistic. Let's see how this happens if Mr. F.Merz will take the German Chancellor's chair.

Posted by: Paco | Feb 26 2025 17:14 utc | 56

A contract signed by the unconstitutional “leader” of one of the most, (if not the most) corrupt countries on the planet has the value and utility of a broken chocolate teapot.

Corrupt politicians and criminals will make money, but the US won’t, and the Ukrainian people won’t.

And what those bags of “rare earth minerals” will eventually contain is anybody’s guess.

True story,
The workers in a Ukrainian sausage factory stole the meat and substituted pink toilet paper for it.

Posted by: CitizenSmith | Feb 26 2025 17:14 utc | 57

Canuck @45

Hear hear! Many folks don't realize that you would need to get the REE out of the ground economically THEN ship them cheaply to a locale that can process/refine cheaply as well. Ain't gonna happen in the West. I remember reading about a Cobalt plant in Ontario that actually built(?) a refining plant right there on the mine property! Haven't heard anything from this company recently.

Posted by: bisfugged | Feb 26 2025 17:16 utc | 58

Bernhardt:

May I complement you on this sentence, during donations week:

"By pressing for the agreement, instead of taking the Russian offer for access to minerals, Trump has committed himself to continue the war in Ukraine." Unlike so many journalists and so many of my colleagues, you treated "to commit" as the transitive verb it is, which requires a direct object to complete its meaning.

Keep it up.

Posted by: Pearce Tournier | Feb 26 2025 17:17 utc | 59

PEACEMAKER ...


😂😂😂

Michael Tracey
@mtracey
·
17h

After Ukraine agrees to the mineral "deal," Trump says in return Ukraine receives "the right to fight on." He boasts that he was the one who first gave Javelins to Ukraine, which wiped out a lot of Russian tanks. He says US weapons could continue to flow to Ukraine "for awhile"

----

Even if this wasn't what he will do, what must the Russians make of it?

Btw, DPRK has started readying it's armed forces for war.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 26 2025 17:17 utc | 60

I think this is more about the conflict between Trump* and the English-uppermost-class[EUC] and their associated minions. England's claim to ex-ukrainia's wealth is utter rubbish...as is any US claim that parallels the manical machinations put forth by the EUC but, America now has a counter-claim and legal standing .

The English uppermost-class have been running a state-sponsored campaign of blackmail, extortion, embezzlement, larceny and terrorism for 500 years, they can't help themselves, it's coded into their inbred DNA. I see this move as Trump telling those English-Twits to push-off...and high time too. The conflict between the US and Russia has served to give the EUC far more influence than their pathetic resultant society deserves. The English uppermost-class have had a say in world affairs for far too long and they've made a mess of it.

*America unleashing itself from the English/anglophilic schoolboy cabal of-losers who have been running US foriegn policy

Posted by: S Brennan | Feb 26 2025 17:28 utc | 61

So what does the US get from this?
Posted by: alek_a | Feb 26 2025 17:12 utc | 55

A reason to walk away when the “deal” falls apart, perhaps?

I can see opposition to the deal becoming a focal point that rallies the anti-Zelensky/Ermak political factions within Ukraine, e.g. the likes of Poroshenko or Arestovich.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 26 2025 17:31 utc | 62

Posted by: canuck | Feb 26 2025 16:51 utc | 45

Seems like I read somewhere that Ukraine doesn't actually have many rare earths but instead lithium, of which there really isn't a shortage of access to the west.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Feb 26 2025 17:31 utc | 63

they secured all the rights to the mineral wealth of the Ukraine....now that's long game, 100 years worth.

The British are imbecilic masochists and their 'leaders' (like Starmer the clown or the smirking idjit Lammy) are drowning in vain delusions of their relevance. I believe these 'rights' that have been secured are printed on the same paper as the Minsk accords, and even less reliable or enforceable.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Feb 26 2025 17:32 utc | 64

Son of abidge @5 and 10

"Just credit every US state reserve account at the FED with keystrokes."


My original comment was deleted/ignored so I am going to try this again.

This gibble has no idea what he is talking about, he must be another troll farm hire or just a spanner in the works here at this site. He goes on and on about goldbugs and fixed rate of exchange nonsense constantly which is completely insane as he really doesn't care that it's all literal bullship!

You cannot just make a keystroke entry when you want to "credit" fiat currency into an account. There HAS to be an equal amount of real productivity when increasing the money supply junior! This is why there is over $300 Trillion in global debt presently. Economics 101 or a very intelligent observation by Ludwig Mises states that a gross increase in money supply WILL cause high levels of inflation. See what I'm getting at sonny? Understand now?

The great destroyer of ALL great civilizations has always been....Compound Interest.


Got Gold?

Posted by: bisfugged | Feb 26 2025 17:33 utc | 65

Posted by: Pearce Tournier | Feb 26 2025 17:17 utc | 59

Here in the US, people have started using the word "commit" as a noun. "The University of Alabama currently has 5 commits in their 2026 recruiting class."

And they don't necessarily mean "commitments" - they're referring to the people who have committed as "commits."

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Feb 26 2025 17:34 utc | 66

@juliania | Feb 26 2025 16:01 utc | 20

The Krainer dialogue is very interesting and seems to supplement what Alistar Crooke said about the UK, i.e. that the UK leadership is panicking. Krainer talked about a bilateral deal between Poland and UK, the Sikorsky neocon foreign minister ("Thank you USA!" after NS2 and all that).

Krainer mentioned (without remembering the exact year) the plane crash in Smolensk, Russia where the Polish president Lech Kaczyński was killed along with many other Polish dignitaries. The plane was on the way to Russia to commemorate the WWII Katyn massacre, highly symbolic. I remember that event because I had 2 Polish visitors in my home when it happened in April 2010.

At the time the disaster was blamed on poor weather, but it led to problems in Polish/Russian relations. The year after we had the massacre at Utøya in Norway, and in 2014 the Maidan coup, MH370, MH17, later NS2 bombing etc.

I did not think of it at the time, but now I ask myself if the Smolensk disaster was an accident. Somehow I think when we look at what has happened since, it was rather convenient for some interests to push a wedge between Russia and Poland.

Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 26 2025 17:36 utc | 67

Dr. Eleven @ 64

But then IF things don't go the City's way all of a sudden, out of the blue comes a very serious allegation of war crimes, fraud and corruption, govt. dirty dealings and (of course), a charge of sexual assault of a minor. Nudge nudge wink wink. All enforced by UN, Interpol, EU, ICC etc and right away too! LOFL

Posted by: bisfugged | Feb 26 2025 17:38 utc | 68

Canuck @ 38

Too true but I hope soon enough that many will wake up to that fact.

"Herds are tough to turn around" wonderful and apt description bud.

My fav- "it is easier to fool someone that try to convince them that they have been fooled"

Posted by: bisfugged | Feb 26 2025 17:09 utc | 52

That quote is Mark Twain , I believe.

Posted by: canuck | Feb 26 2025 17:40 utc | 69

Is this deal designed to please and placate the Repugs at home, the ones who (Lindsay Graham?) salivated over the mineral wealth of the Ukraine?

IMHAIO (in my humble and ignorant opinion) the best thing that can happen for the Ukes is for Russia to gain control of the whole country or a large portion of it, and establish a commission of patriotic Ukes and Russians who will oversee the exploitation of Ukraine's assets.

As things currently stand, Ukraine might as well be colonial Africa, with Zel playing the Idi Amin role.

Or, the "race for Africa" era. This "race for Ukraine" is a variation on "the rape of Gaza/Palestine."
Odious.

Posted by: Jane | Feb 26 2025 17:41 utc | 70

S Brennan @ 61

Exactly! However there is a large portion of the DS that takes it's marching orders from the City so there will be US chaos in the coming months. Maybe civil war?? These "brits" need a fvcking hazel nut slamming into the very centre of the Square Mile and make it yesterday!!

Posted by: bisfugged | Feb 26 2025 17:43 utc | 71

- Why is the Ukraine going to be Trump's Vietnam ? The only logic behind this notion could be that this deal will very detrimental for the Ukraine (financially) and that it will weaken the Ukraine even more.

Posted by: WMG | Feb 26 2025 17:43 utc | 72

Posted by: bisfugged | Feb 26 2025 17:33 utc | 65

Sonny is a total retard.

Knows nothing about currency, gold or economics [and I would confidently bet gold ounces to doughnuts Sonny knows nothing about sexy women as well)-yet, like all full blown morons, he believes he is clever: the spasmodical, non stop shit prose producing Intellectually Vacant ("IV" ,TM) posts drives me so fucking nuts I......

Breathe out, breathe in, breathe out, breath in....I'm calming down.....

Posted by: canuck | Feb 26 2025 17:47 utc | 73

Jane @ 70.

PS. It is almost as if Russia needs to assume a "mandate" over Ukraine, to make sure the place doesn't get taken to the cleaner's by the West and compradors like Zel.

The Ukrainians just don't seem to be ready to govern themselves.

Posted by: Jane | Feb 26 2025 17:48 utc | 74

The Federative Republic of Brazil accelerates the development of secure payment systems within BRIICS+.

Posted by: pepe | Feb 26 2025 17:50 utc | 75

@Posted by: petergrfstrm | Feb 26 2025 15:18 utc | 7

Hitler was very committed to the German Lebensraum in the East, to repeat what the US had done in North America, as detailed in "Mein Kampf". It was only through this Lebensraum that Germany could become an equal of the US and fully dominate Europe. Hitler did not trust France and the UK, so he had to defeat them and drive their armies off the continent to protect his back when he attacked the Soviet Union. He gained this in the summer of 1940, and although he would have liked a peace with the UK he had already taken them out of the game. Only about 15% of the German army was left to protect Western Europe when Hitler invaded the USSR, so he did not really need a UK peace deal. His greatest mistake was to declare war on the US after Pearl Harbour, if he had not he could have at least delayed somewhat the US entry into the European theatre.

Posted by: Roger Boyd | Feb 26 2025 17:53 utc | 76

"Some of us believe that Putin was trolling Trump about joint ventures for Russian resources.

Between Lavrov and Putin, the Russians are treating Trump with respect but it does not seem that they are taking him seriously any longer.

And why should they? He's never ended America's involvement."

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 26 2025 16:41 utc | 43

In the link I posted above (which is from this morning,) Alex Krainer believes that Trump is trolling Starmer, as he also did Macron. So I don't think you and he agree, if, that is, you are part of 'some of us'. Alex paints a bleak picture of British economic woes, and we can remember that Trump himself has some issues with the British involvement in Russiagate, which pretty much torpedoed his (Trump's) first term.

Apologies if I am telling you something you already know. I saw that the comments to Nimo's thread were only a few hours old, and the points seemed relevant to the upcoming supposed meeting with Zelenski which I hadn't seen previously discussed. Maybe it has been already on Alex's substack.


As some others of us say, pass the popcorn.

Posted by: juliania | Feb 26 2025 17:56 utc | 77

Trump is simply doing a side deal to the main event of a settlement with Russia, he simply can't help himself from stealing the Ukrainian resources. This in no way stops the peace agreement from including more territory for Russia, or for the Russians to simply take more territory. Ukraine will be drip-fed with no new major weapons deliveries from the US.

The Russians should simply keep grinding on and then scare the shit out of the US negotiators and Trump with a big spring offensive. That's the way to get the best deal, making sure that the opposition understands that the deal will simply get worse by the day. It may also help Trump drive a deal through the Congress, as the alternative would be losing all of Ukraine.

The thought of the US "biding its time for 10 years" while it and Europe continue to significantly decline in strength vis a vis China and Russia is delusional. By 2035 the West will be in no position to challenge China or Russia. There will also be that little issue of accelerating climate change impacts to deal with.

Posted by: Roger Boyd | Feb 26 2025 18:00 utc | 78

“Security guarantees” seem to be the primary consideration here.

Ukraine has otherwise already been scheduled to transform into a neoliberal hellhole tied to onerous IMF debt restructuring, disappearing labour and civil protections, and privatization schemes.

“The financial support is made in coordination with and between IFIs, mainly the IMF and the WB. As noted above, the EU’s micro-financial assistance is directly related to Ukraine’s ability to fulfil IMF conditionalities. So, it is worth looking into what conditions the IMF is imposing on Ukraine. According to its website, the IMF has so far disbursed US$1.4 billion in emergency financing and another US$1.3 billion is in the pipeline, under the newly established Food Shock Window. In addition, in December 2022, the Ukrainian government requested a four-month long Program Monitoring with Board involvement (PMB). Key measures within PMB include revenue mobilization and reviving the domestic debt market, preparing a financial sector strategy, and enhancing transparency and governance. PMB means that the IMF and Ukraine will coordinate fiscal, monetary, and other policies to support the “macroeconomic and financial stability” of Ukraine. “
https://www.wilpf.org/commodifying-war-the-political-economy-of-disaster-capitalism-in-ukraine-and-beyond/

Posted by: jayc | Feb 26 2025 18:01 utc | 79

"Normally, it is the country that defeated you in war, and not the country that defended you, that pillages you after the war.."

Britain was systematically plundered by the US during and after the Second World War. The process began during the 1914 (1917)- 1918 war.
One aspect of this plundering was to increase the pressure of the British state on resource rich 'possessions' in Africa and, like Malaya, Asia.

Posted by: bevin | Feb 26 2025 18:09 utc | 80

Trump is simply doing a side deal to the main event of a settlement with Russia, he simply can't help himself from stealing the Ukrainian resources. ***

Posted by: Roger Boyd | Feb 26 2025 18:00 utc | 78

This is the basic idea. I haven't read the deal, but it's probably in the nature of an MOU to form a JV as I would see it.

Posted by: frithguild | Feb 26 2025 18:09 utc | 81

May I complement you on this sentence, during donations week:

"By pressing for the agreement, instead of taking the Russian offer for access to minerals, Trump has committed himself to continue the war in Ukraine." Unlike so many journalists and so many of my colleagues, you treated "to commit" as the transitive verb it is, which requires a direct object to complete its meaning.

Keep it up.

Posted by: Pearce Tournier | Feb 26 2025 17:17 utc | 59
==============

Hear, hear! For solid grammar/syntax.
Although I might suggest "Trump has committed himself to continuing the war in Ukraine."

The question "Committed to what?" is answered by a noun.
Namely, to "committing," a gerund.
A gerund is an -ing verb form used as a noun (as opposed to a participle).

While we are at it, "to address" is a reflexive verb.
Viz., "to address oneself to an issue." Not "to address an issue."
Lavrov might be the only person who could be expected to use this verb correctly.

Posted by: Jane | Feb 26 2025 18:10 utc | 82

What I find as really disappointing is that the Europeans (all of them, but especially England, France & Germany) seemed to have learned nothing from either of the World Wars. They re-created the alliance system that contributed to dragging other countries into a war that didn't really concern them (WW I) and they've deluded themselves into thinking that breaking apart Russia and seizing all of it's natural resources will both be easy and will completely recapitalize their indebted economies so they can pay for another 50 years of economic domination of the world. Europe is a footnote of history that threw away its' chance to be a world power in 2 fratricidal wars, stoking the flames for a 3rd war is the very definition of insanity and I'm shocked that none of the political elites in Europe are willing to stand up and say it

Posted by: Kadath | Feb 26 2025 18:10 utc | 83

From Ukraiinian Newspaper Strana.news (banned in both UA and RU)

"Ukraine's only chance to fight Trump's bad peace deal is to mobilize young people - The Economist

Ukraine has only one opportunity to overcome the negative consequences of Donald Trump's proposed peace agreement – to mobilize young people.

A senior US official told The Economist anonymously.

According to the publication, the Ukrainian authorities continue to reject calls from the West to lower the mobilization age in order to reduce the gap in numbers with the Russian army. They say that Ukraine needs more "weapons and protection", since there is nothing to arm manpower with."

https://strana.news/news/480768-na-zapade-nastaivajut-chto-ukraine-nuzhno-mobilizovat-molodezh.html

Posted by: Paul from Norway | Feb 26 2025 18:10 utc | 84

curious sidenote:

Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act of 2022

Ukrainian diplomats lobbied for extension of the Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act beyond 2023, but it expired on September 30 2023. No weapons were ever delivered to Ukraine under the terms of the act. Instead, three other American budget programs were used to supply materiel to Ukraine: the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, Foreign Military Financing, and Presidential Drawdown Authority.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine_Democracy_Defense_Lend-Lease_Act_of_2022

Posted by: exile | Feb 26 2025 18:12 utc | 85

bisfugged 71, Thanks for your kind comment in regards to my 61. To your comment:

"DS that takes it's marching orders from the City/[English-Uppermost-Class[EUC]] so there will be US chaos in the coming months. Maybe civil war"

I think not, not that the 3LAs won't give it go, they're already market-testing several lines of propaganda but so far, none have had any purchase. The 3LAs are in the same postion that the "boy who cried wolf" found himself in. Additionally, Republicans in congress, with few exceptions, have crossed the Rubicon, they really can't go back. The Democrats on the other hand have remained steadfastly loyal to the 3LAs/Deep-State/Police-State fascists.

So, the blue-no-matter-who voter following the DNC's dictata could return the fascists to power in 2026...to the great relief of the English-uppermost-class.

Those are the twits, one should recall who, up to the very last minute, wanted to make a deal with Hitler...and frankly did nothing for anybody until...the Fuhrer came for them. Sadly for the Isles, the uppermost had war-roles that largely excluded them from the risks of war, a war their upper-class indolence had begat.

Posted by: S Brennan | Feb 26 2025 18:13 utc | 86

Since Ukraine doesn't get any positives out of this deal, it is safe to infer that the energy driving it is Trump's threats of the negatives Ukraine will experience if Zelensky et al. do not sign off on it.

Given Trump's ham-handed approach to negotiation, he probably threatens to cut off all military support to Ukraine, effective immediately. Maybe he adds some veiled (or unveiled) threats to Zelensky's personal safety.

As usual, Trump has no long-term plan, for Ukraine or anything else. The best long-term option for Ukraine may be to just leave the minerals where they are. And make peace quickly with Russia, of course.

Posted by: Clever Dog | Feb 26 2025 18:15 utc | 87

Anybody have som facts about USA- Iraq economy?

The USA zeized the oil- money and are paying Iraq some of them of cource not to develop the country, like Israel does with Palestinian assets/ international help, if I have understood it correctly?

Is this how the Usa-Ukraina deal will be as well.

Posted by: Paul from Norway | Feb 26 2025 18:18 utc | 88

S Brennan @ 61

Exactly! However there is a large portion of the DS that takes it's marching orders from the City so there will be US chaos in the coming months. Maybe civil war?? These "brits" need a fvcking hazel nut slamming into the very centre of the Square Mile and make it yesterday!!

Posted by: bisfugged | Feb 26 2025 17:43 utc | 71
========

Yes, I agree.
And another chapter in this saga of who controls the Deep State, and how, is what happens when MAGA meets MOSSAD/AIPAC?

Currently there are charges in the USA that Pam Bondi is slow-walking or even stonewalling the release of all the Epstein documents. In fact, I read this a.m. that the appointment of a congressinal "task force" now seems to be on the table to "curate" the documents, or some such. Hmmmmm.

What happens if the Epstein Papers could reveal not only the names of the naughty boys who visited Epstein Island but also the entity in whose behalf they are being or could have been blackmailed?

That is, the blackmailer.
Who/what is it?
That is the entity that really needs to be "protected."

Any kind of "congressional task force" is of course circling the wagons.

Posted by: Jane | Feb 26 2025 18:19 utc | 89

As promised, "Lavrov in Qatar: Important Remarks & Q&A", which isn't just about Ukraine but about Syria, Palestine, and the European attitude.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 26 2025 18:27 utc | 90

Only about 15% of the German army was left to protect Western Europe when Hitler invaded the USSR, so he did not really need a UK peace deal. His greatest mistake was to declare war on the US after Pearl Harbour, if he had not he could have at least delayed somewhat the US entry into the European theatre.

Posted by: Roger Boyd | Feb 26 2025 17:53 utc | 76
=================

Wouldn't Eastern Europe have sufficed for German Lebensraum?
Where there were already longstanding German diaspora communities anyway?

Did Hitler think Germany actually needed Russian territory for Lebensraum? For starters, would any Germans would have wanted to go and live in rural Russia? They already had nice diaspora communities of long standing in CZ, Romania, the Baltic countries, Hungary, Poland, and elsewhere. Also I believe some in Russian cities.

I think Hitler's idea was to impose the final solution on Eastern Europe (eliminate the Slavs) so as to make more space for Germans in Eastern Europe, not in the USSR.

I thought that the reason Hitler invaded Russia was to get control of the oil.

Posted by: Jane | Feb 26 2025 18:28 utc | 91

b strikes again: 'trump's Vietnam". WHAMMO. Pre'cis. On Target. Mission Accomplished in technicolor.

So the drama rumbles on. A deep feeling of pathos for all those young lives sacrificed for what?

Posted by: aristodemos | Feb 26 2025 18:28 utc | 92

Trump - 'We will be on the land and that way there is going to be automatic security because nobody is going to be messing around with our people when we are there'

Putin has paid the penalty for not dealing with Western Ukraine properly.

Posted by: Night Tripper | Feb 26 2025 18:31 utc | 93

Man Suspected of Shooting Slovak Prime Minister Should Face Terrorism Charges, Say Police
***
The suspect was originally charged with attempted murder. Zilinka later said that the change in the charges was based on evidence the investigators obtained, but gave no further details.
***

Not to be outdone by Hungary and Serbia, Slovakia gets in the regime change witchcraft spotting game. How as these 3 countries do you avoid the spell that the Romanians are under right now?

Posted by: frithguild | Feb 26 2025 18:34 utc | 94

You just know trump and the west are full on....ANTIFA.... blimey they'v even started looting !
Basterds, thats are gig.

Posted by: Mark2 | Feb 26 2025 18:35 utc | 95

Krainer chez Nima has drunk too muck kool aid. How is the planet supposed to survive to a trade revolution centred on AI and big tech?

Posted by: Tom | Feb 26 2025 18:36 utc | 96

Paco | Feb 26 2025 17:14 utc | 56--

Thanks for your reply. Lavrov's comment about Merz's approval of the use of Tarus missiles--that the Germans should think about the consequences of their use--was quite appropriate. One wonders if Germany has its own satellite missile targeting capability or is it reliant on the Outlaw US Empire for the use of its missiles, and would Trump allow it. Lavrov does make one thing very clear: The current talks between Russia and the Outlaw US Empire are only about the restoration of normal diplomatic relations and nothing more than that.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 26 2025 18:37 utc | 97

Jane @ 89
Germany invaded Russia for food, grain to be exact, if you own a big army you have to feed a big army.
Hitler owened a big army and was expecting it to get bigger.
Cheers.

Posted by: Mark2 | Feb 26 2025 18:43 utc | 98

Posted by: james | Feb 26 2025 16:23 utc | 35 Well, that is a consideration for Trump personally. I saw an excellent movie The Apprentice which emphasizes that point...but I don't consider even an excellent movie to be fact. But all factions of the main stream media had zero problem blaming Biden personally for defeat. And I still feel that the longer Trump goes on, the longer it's his war. If he really wanted out he should have been trumpeting it during the campaign, instead of supporting Johnson shepherd the last tranche of Ukraine aid through the House. If your comment is more about how Trump can suffer politically if the US is defeated in Ukraine? Yes, I think that may well be rationally judged a real possibility, maybe even a likelihood. People who think Biden didn't lose so-called the liberal MSM support after Afghanistan won't agree with either of us?

As to the notion that the US conceived as some sort of single person has a personality trait such as being a bad loser? Don't think that's the right way. Conservatives in general, but fascists in particular, have no problem with claiming that their country is simultaneously the greatest country there ever was and claiming it is a wreck on the verge of destruction, at the hands of enemies who are simultaneously terrifying threats against all that is good from sheer malice and invulnerable morally against the subversive wiles of moral degenerates and fools and such homely, loutish and badly dressed losers. As the mythology of the Lost Cause in the US shows us, even obvious defeats can be explained away by citing mere numbers or excessive nobility or a nefarious alliance of unspecified secret foes in high places driven by ideological madness, corruption, perversion and a joyous malice against Goodness Itself. Consistency, much less fidelity to fact, is not a part of the conservative world-view. Whether the excuse is the organic nature of tradition being superior to mere thought, or simply that Will makes the world, reason is not a value...well except maybe for engineers and physicians. There may be exceptions even there, see RFK.

Posted by: steven t johnson | Feb 26 2025 18:44 utc | 99

Jane @ 91 not 89

Posted by: Mark2 | Feb 26 2025 18:47 utc | 100

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