Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
February 12, 2025
The Game Is Up Trump Tells Ukrainian War Party

Today the Trump administration told the Ukraine war party that their game is finally up. Everything it had hoped for is out of reach:

Hegseth Says Return to Ukraine’s Pre-2014 Borders Is ‘Unrealistic’ (archived) – New York Times, Feb 12 2025

A return to Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders is “an unrealistic objective” and an “illusionary goal” in the peace settlement between Ukraine and Russia that President Trump wants to accomplish, the U.S. Defense Secretary, Pete Hegseth, said on Wednesday at a meeting of countries supporting Ukraine.

Mr. Trump, he added, does not support Ukraine’s membership in NATO as part of a realistic peace plan.

After a settlement, “a durable peace for Ukraine must include robust security guarantees to ensure that the war will not begin again,” but that would be the responsibility, he said, of European and non-European troops in a “non-NATO mission” unprotected by NATO’s Article Five commitment to collective defense.

No American troops will be deployed to Ukraine, he said, and Europe should provide “the overwhelming share of future lethal and nonlethal aid to Ukraine.”

Just yesterday Zelenski claimed that Europe cannot guarantee Ukraine’s security without the US. He is right with that. Over the last years Russia's military power has tripled. No alliance of current European armies could withstand its power should a conflict over Ukraine reignite.

There is only one party that can and is willing to give Ukraine real security guarantees.

That party is of course, as I wrote 20 months ago, Russia:

A main question for Ukraine since it became an independent state was who or what could potentially guarantee its security.

The Ukraine is now obviously losing the war. It will soon need to sign a capitulation like ceasefire agreement with Russia.

But who or what can guarantee that any such agreement will be held up?

There will be no NATO membership or NATO security guarantees for Ukraine, neither now nor ever.

A direct full security guarantee from Washington to Kiev is also impossible. It would create a high likelihood of a direct war between the U.S. and Russia which would soon become nuclear. The U.S. will not want to risk that.

There is only one country in the world that can guarantee peace in Ukraine and the security of its borders. That country is Russia!

But any such guarantee will of course come with conditions attached to it. Either Ukraine will accept those or it will never be secure from outer interference.

That is simply a fact of life Ukraine has had to, and will have to live with.

This was all so very obvious.

Why did it take so long for realism to come to the fore?

Comments

Posted by: Mark2 | Feb 12 2025 17:25 utc | 1
#######
The European meltdown on Twitter is glorious.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 12 2025 20:55 utc | 101

Just a random observation….
Biden &co jumped out of Afganistan catching everyone by surprise . Right ?
Biden then deliberatly provoked the start of the Ukraine war. Make it happen on purpose.
Is this what we see trump doing now. Clearing the decks for major action in Middle East or maybe Iran.
He’s certanly beating the M E war drums right this week. Will it blow up this week end ?
Meenwhile america leaves two million Russian specking people dead !
Americans top to bottem dont give a dam about ukraine or ukrainians, they never did. Lets be real here.

Posted by: Mark2 | Feb 12 2025 20:57 utc | 102

Maria Zakharova:
NATO Secretary General Responds to Danish Intelligence Report:
“If Putin decides to attack NATO, he will lose. The response will be absolutely devastating.”
“This statement by Rutte is not about who might lose in the future—it’s an admission that the West’s “Ukraine project” has already failed. Not long ago, their rhetoric was all about “defeating Russia on the battlefield” and “delivering a strategic defeat to the Russians.” They also repeatedly pushed the narrative that “Russia’s economy has been torn to shreds.”
Now, the focus is shifting. It’s clear they no longer see the Kiev regime as a viable bet—used and discarded.
Another crucial shift is the attempt to shift responsibility onto the EU side of the collective West, leaving an already struggling Western European economy to deal with the problems created by the Anglo-Saxons on its own.”

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 12 2025 20:57 utc | 103

The formal read-out is available at Global South: https://globalsouth.co/2025/02/12/formal-kremlin-readout-trump-putin-telephone-conversation/
Which Amarynth compares and contrasts with the Trump social media output.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 12 2025 21:00 utc | 104

Ukraine’s UN ambassador who was previously kicked out of Germany for denying the Holocaust, calling Scholz “sausage” and justifying Bandera’s crimes, has made a new claim.
The Ukrainian diplomat has demanded $100 billion a year from Donald Trump to “rebuild Ukraine”

This Clown clearly doesn’t know that Trump has always been about reducing risk and exposure by using OPM.
In this case, Europe’s money.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 12 2025 21:01 utc | 105

@ rk | Feb 12 2025 18:53 utc | 53
With respect, what the actual fuck are you talking about? More blatant, twisted lies.

Posted by: boneless | Feb 12 2025 21:01 utc | 106

Putin should remember US (esp Trump) does not keep agreements but here is what his opening conditions should be.
Demilitarized Ukraine. Russian Inspectors to monitor compliance.
No NATO member troops in Ukraine.
All land East of the Dnipier River and Crimea to be recognized as Russian Territory
Complete withdrawal from Kursk
No NATO for Ukraine.
Denazification of Ukrainian government

Posted by: Pete Lincoln | Feb 12 2025 21:02 utc | 107

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 12 2025 20:32 utc | 97
Most of Ukraines sovereign debt is in the hands of the EU, IMF, and the world bank

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Feb 12 2025 21:02 utc | 108

LoveDombass @ 101
That we can both / all enjoy,
Cheers

Posted by: Mark2 | Feb 12 2025 21:03 utc | 109

By refusing to participate in an Article 5 event, the US has neutered Europe.
The threat of American “backup” was always the foundation of European belligerence.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 12 2025 21:05 utc | 110

Volo just got pollaxed……and the pro Nazis in the MSM and the DC and London deep state have exploding heads……
Its just great to observe rock heads like Macron, and Starmer completely left out of any process……..
General Kellog too is out, a cold war has been and now a potemkin figurine.
VV still needs to be wary however, no deal without Odessa, and all of the Ukronazi land east of the Dneiper, and a complete de-militarization of the remained of the Ukraine, and of course a corridor to Transnistria……..

Posted by: tobias cole | Feb 12 2025 21:06 utc | 111

Posted by: Roger Boyd | Feb 12 2025 20:29 utc | 94
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 12 2025 20:32 utc | 97
Posted by: Paranaense | Feb 12 2025 20:43 utc | 100
Y’all seem to have a good grip on things. There’s a lot of naysayers out there but give’m some space and time to come to grips with reality.
Still can’t help but LMAO about the usual nonsense STILL being trotted out:
* Putin is scared
* Putin is kissing ass
* Europe is sending peacekeepers
* Europe is going to re-arm
* Ukraine will fight for another year with EU support

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Feb 12 2025 21:08 utc | 112

Got to enjoy the fact that DJT lifted all federal security privileges for Toni Soros Blinkensky and Jake Russiagate Sullivan, Vicky Butcher of Maidan Sq Nuland, and 51 deep state security moles who acted to proclaim the falsehood of the Hunter laptop…..
All gone…..but be wary they will attempt to strike back, like all good fascists…….

Posted by: tobias cole | Feb 12 2025 21:14 utc | 113

Tobias coleA2106Feb12
Just a quibble. If the ethnic Russian majority in Odessa is liberated, then it is virtually axiomatic that there will be NO Ukie forces westwards from Odessa. Thus, access to Transnistria will simply be a matter of course. Go out and get yourself a decent world atlas, and at least use it to follow this war and the “shudder” other one. It’s ever wise to broaden your knowledge base. Enjoy this opportunity to enlighten yourself.

Posted by: aristodemos | Feb 12 2025 21:16 utc | 114

I said before, a purge of Ukrainian elites has started in post-Biden/neocon era. All old USAID darlings of Ukraine lost their protection and are now susceptible to corruption, treason or other criminal charges.
Ultimately it’s likely that this will lead to at minimum neutral or perhaps pro-Russian government.
https://x.com/distant_earth83/status/1889781337659216180

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 12 2025 21:23 utc | 115

One of European leader who officially gave the green light to the Ukraine disastrous war is Boris Johnson representing the UK
He was followed by Ursula van Leyden representing the EU
Both confirmed that Ukraine should not negotiate with Russians and that they will support Ukraine until it gets back the land “stolen” by the dictator Putin who, they assured it, will be crushed.
Now the UK prime ministre just sign a 100 years partnership with Ukraine
Europe and the UK should take over Ukraine.. The USA is right to get out of that mess.

Posted by: Virgile | Feb 12 2025 21:25 utc | 116

***Thus, access to Transnistria will simply be a matter of course.***
Posted by: aristodemos | Feb 12 2025 21:16 utc | 114
This leaves the “real estate development corridor” through Bukovina and across the Carpathians to Hungary. Not much in the category of minerals there …
Zakrova speaking to Romania: Now, the focus is shifting. It’s clear they no longer see the Kiev regime as a viable bet—used and discarded.

Posted by: frithguild | Feb 12 2025 21:31 utc | 117

Alice Weidel: Oligarch Tool
Posted by: Roger Boyd | Feb 12 2025 17:32 utc | 4
Brilliant article Mr. Boyd
But there was another 10-12 european countries that also was set up as facists in the years before WW2. Polan, Romania, Austria, the Baltics. It’s looks exactly like what we are experiencing now.
http://worldatwar.net/article/autocracy/index.html
Peace and remember Gonzalo Lira

Posted by: Paul from Norway | Feb 12 2025 21:40 utc | 118

The EU needs a nuclear umbrella that is entirely independent of the US, perhaps an extension of the French, but with significant collaboration with both Germany and the major Slavic countries, operating under the assumption that the principal peril is Russia, but by no means exclusively so. The trigger for the activation of this umbrella (underground and invulnerable) is a first strike attack by the enemy, where the counter strike is both land based within Europe, but also in territories such Greenland, submarine based, and island based (Atlantic and Pacific EU territories). Under such a scenario, which I assume is akin to the present American or Chinese defensive (but also, in their case, offensive) configuration, the EU could both resume trading widely with Russia, thus preserving its superior economic configuration and simultaneously achieving for the first time nuclear parity with the Russian Federation, making thereby the US defensive role entirely redundant, unnecessary, and more of an impediment and hindrance than anything else.

Posted by: Ludovic | Feb 12 2025 21:52 utc | 119

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Feb 12 2025 21:08 utc | 112
I feel some of the naysayers want a total Putin victory, that was off the cards the moment the coup-de-main failed, because a triumphant Russia and a humiliated and broken West is an essential end-state, for them psychologically. Others cannot accept the reality that Trump is already being talked about as the most consequential President since Lincoln, if he continues his current trajectory of sledgehammering the vampiric deep state who has drained trillions, and killed millions, in its endless quest for power and riches.
The former are seemingly driven by a deep-seated insecurity that Russia maybe isn’t as powerful as they believed, hence the Dolchstoss talk if Putin doesn’t grind another 50K+ troops into the Ukrainian soil to achieve something they’ve been incapable of doing for three years. The latter are equally psychologically tethered, it would seem, by a world-view that demands that Trump reflects his caricature, meaning everything that challenges that perspective is either ignored or ‘modified’ to suit their pre-written conclusions. It’s why TDS occurs, because they are terrified of the implications of being wrong about him.
As for Ukraine, Trump wants that conflict off the books, not cooking them, Big Man style, so that the far more serious problems, closer to home can be addressed. He’ll cut them off and reason that if Putin can’t substantially improve his situation on the ground then tough. No deep strikes into Russia since his inauguration, no new funding and possibly lots of existing programmes frozen or cancelled. On a personal note, the two airbases I regularly drive past have had far more planes, both transport, ISR, tanker, SOCOM on the ground recently, might be something, might be nothing.

Posted by: Milites | Feb 12 2025 21:57 utc | 120

“The first time we’ll meet in Saudi Arabia, see if we get something done,” Trump told journalists in the Oval Office.
Trump indicated that several meetings with Putin could take place in the coming months, saying, “We expect that he’ll come here, and I’ll go there, and we’re going to meet also, probably in Saudi Arabia,” according to Matt Viser, the White House bureau chief for The Washington Post.
https://www.rt.com/news/612610-trump-putin-saudi-arabia/

Posted by: Elber | Feb 12 2025 21:57 utc | 121

It is clear, Putin has betrayed all these dead soldiers.
Russia is scared of NATO, scared of Trump.

Posted by: Lenox | Feb 12 2025 21:58 utc | 122

Saudi Arabia would be a poor choice by Putin (keep in mind, Trump makes shit up and could be BS-ing.)
India, or maybe China would be better sites for neutrality.
At least he didn’t say Turkey …

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Feb 12 2025 22:03 utc | 123

Calm down, Mr. Lenox.
The agreement so far does not involve the European Union; SO, THE WAR CONTINUES! It was Trump who asked for mercy, not Putin!!

Posted by: Elber | Feb 12 2025 22:07 utc | 124

There will be a grand bargain. Expect China to get invited to the talks, which have probably been ongoing for several weeks already. Probably something on nuclear weapons and spheres of influence. Points of contention to be worked out are likely to be the Japan, Korea, and the Middle East. Europe will be pretty much ignored by all and told to wait in the corner until the adults decide what they require of it.

Posted by: CullenBaker | Feb 12 2025 22:11 utc | 125

Minsk 3.0 but only worse
Trump cannot lift sanctions, he cannot remove Zelensky, he cannot provide official recognition of the integration of the new territories he cannot stop European nations from patrolling the rump state
What can he offer Putin exactly?

Posted by: Night Tripper | Feb 12 2025 22:13 utc | 126

It is clear, Putin has betrayed all these dead soldiers.
Russia is scared of NATO, scared of Trump.
Posted by: Lenox | Feb 12 2025 21:58 utc | 122
STOP TALKIN FECKIN BOLLOX YOU IMBECILE

Posted by: HERMIUS | Feb 12 2025 22:15 utc | 127

people just cant seem to grasp that there is no negotiating with the americans, its a completely corrupt entity trump included, now you will see if putin (who is one of klause schwabs leaders) along with trudeau, starmer etc will sell russia like yeltsin, and what a about hegseth? the bloke is a REAL war criminal, the best outcome would be the complete collapse of america without a shot fired

Posted by: Tucker | Feb 12 2025 22:16 utc | 128

>Trump can’t lift sanctions
ORLY?
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-administration-disbands-task-force-targeting-russian-oligarchs-2025-02-06/

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Feb 12 2025 22:18 utc | 129

there’s no point in mentionning Russia’s 2021 demands about NATO retreating. this was before the war, when everyone expected Ukraine to collapse quickly.those demands now look completely unrealistic, after fighting an exhausting war for 3 years in the Donbas. NATO is never going to leave, the best Russia can expect if it signs anything is Ukraine being refused membership… for now

Posted by: abel | Feb 12 2025 22:22 utc | 130

Happy to see the EU get what it deserves. But was that dealt in exchange not intervening in case of a war with Iran or within Syria?
Now that the EU has cut ALL connection with RU (banks, energy, planes, research, exchanges of any sort…they even banned RU academics from some teams and…RU apps and softwares!) it would be fun to see the US benefitting from a renewal of those same relations.

Posted by: Tom | Feb 12 2025 18:50 utc | 52
Considering it was the US that manipulated Europe into burning its bridges with Russia, as the US was threatened by whatever good relations Europe had with Russia before 2014, I don’t expect Russia to reward the USA for its bad behavior. At least not when Maria Zakharova, as quoted by LoveDonbass, implicates the “Anglo-Saxons” (of which the USA is part) in starting the conflict.

Another crucial shift is the attempt to shift responsibility onto the EU side of the collective West, leaving an already struggling Western European economy to deal with the problems created by the Anglo-Saxons on its own.

What am I missing?

Posted by: joey_n | Feb 12 2025 22:26 utc | 131

Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Feb 12 2025 18:50 utc | 51
“Agreeing with this plan leaves them completely vulnerable as it is not a broader regional peace plan. It just sounds like a reset to allow the West to build up their forces ?”
So did you find details of a plan that Trump and Putin discussed that you forgot to share with the rest of us? All that we’ve been told is that Putin and Trump have agreed to begin negotiations. If you have found a more detailed plan that was discussed please share the link. We’re all dying to know.

Posted by: Paranaense | Feb 12 2025 22:27 utc | 132

Posted by: abel | Feb 12 2025 22:22 utc | 130
the best nato can expect is complete withdrawal from the former territory of the ukraine. before the war, nato was hoping of a quick collapse of russia, and that didnt happen. they are now deep into supporting and financing an unwinnable kerkuffle, and trump is desperately trying to get a way out, at least for the us. as russia is never going to leave.

Posted by: Justpassinby | Feb 12 2025 22:27 utc | 133

Trump isn’t “desperate”. He is going to end this or he is going to throw up his hands, walk away, and say “Not my monkeys, not my circus.”

Posted by: CullenBaker | Feb 12 2025 22:30 utc | 134

It is sad that so many of the “alternative” commentators mistake the Trumps, the Melonis, the Farages, the Weidels for agents of real change. But that is the genius of the oligarchy, it excels at co-option, corruption and misdirection to keep the eyes of the working majority away from the greatest problem in society; themselves. And also to mislead the majority into serving the interests of the small oligarch minority.

Posted by: Roger Boyd | Feb 12 2025 17:32 utc | 4
Just excellent – one of the best articles I’ve read for quite some time!
Just a minor observation/addition: there’s another faction originally backing the Greens and they are currently pushing the left (Die Linke) to ensure that it achieves the 5% restriction. This would ensure that, as your article states, the Greens would be needed for a coalition…

Posted by: Zet | Feb 12 2025 22:31 utc | 135

I would caution my friends (and enemies) at the bar not to make linear projections to satisfy their own desired outcomes.
Things are very fluid right now.
There may be another attempt on a leader’s life. A major false flag may occur.
None of us imagined 9/11 6 months earlier, nor the results of 9/11, which includes the election of Trump in ’16.
Transnistria may happen. Odessa may happen. Neither may happen.
Try to remember that Putin (and Xi) see objectives differently because they don’t act in haste or allow themselves to become “prisoners of the moment”.
Putin’s first part of the deal should probably be perceived as an opener, not an endgame. I think Trump is likely to learn this about the Persians and Arabs as well. Zionism is driven by emotion, and so cannot act with patience or strategy.
Everyone who has negotiated or done sales work knows, that the party with the power is the party that can walk away.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 12 2025 22:35 utc | 136

Posted by: HughG | Feb 12 2025 19:07 utc | 62
“The Ukrainians can fight on for another year without US support. Will the EU states take up the baton passed on by the Americans? Yes I suspect they will.”
How many bake sales will they need to have to replace the weapons no longer coming from the US? Too bad they sold off so much weaponry to the Mexican cartels. I wonder if they can get them back?

Posted by: Paranaense | Feb 12 2025 22:36 utc | 137

there’s no point in mentionning Russia’s 2021 demands about NATO retreating. this was before the war, when everyone expected Ukraine to collapse quickly.those demands now look completely unrealistic, after fighting an exhausting war for 3 years in the Donbas. NATO is never going to leave, the best Russia can expect if it signs anything is Ukraine being refused membership… for now
Posted by: abel | Feb 12 2025 22:22 utc | 130
Mr Abel, what happened to those kiev ambitions of getting Crimea back? What about a Maydan in Moscow? What happened to the russian ecomomy “collapse”? Youve grossly miscalculated EVERYTHING throughout this conflict.

Posted by: HERMIUS | Feb 12 2025 22:39 utc | 138

The Telegraph reporting on Ukraine has spun around on a dime.
“We have always been are not at war with Eastasia.”

Posted by: too scents | Feb 12 2025 22:50 utc | 139

Trump is mad if he thinks he can swap peacemaking in Ukraine for warmongering in Palestine. He is totally powerless until he removes the Ukrainian Nazi Neocons who paid for his election.
The first person to visit HTs in Syria after Britain was the Foreign Minister of Ukraine, who now has weaponry and skilled soldiers availble to fight for Israel/ Daesh against the Axis of Resistance and Iran. For this reason and many others Ukraine and Palestine are one and the same problem.
Peace in Ukraine means War everywhere else. Unfortunately for Trump we already know that he is owned by the Neocons to be a warmonger, masquerading as a businessman.
The US doesn’t even know that it blew up Nordstream. It doesn’t know that it recreated Nazism in Ukraine. It doesn’t know that it is 100% responsible for the Genocide in Palestine. It doesn’t know that the Messiah AS will return as a Muslim. The US only knows what Global banksters tell it to know.
Hardly a superpower running the world, more like Uncle Sam’s Big Top Circus with Clowns but no lions.

Posted by: Giyane | Feb 12 2025 22:50 utc | 140

Mr Abel, what happened to those kiev ambitions of getting Crimea back? What about a Maydan in Moscow? What happened to the russian ecomomy “collapse”? Youve grossly miscalculated EVERYTHING throughout this conflict.
Posted by: HERMIUS | Feb 12 2025 22:39 utc | 138
you must be confusing me with someone else. i’ve never believed or claimed those things

Posted by: abel | Feb 12 2025 22:53 utc | 141

@Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 12 2025 21:00 utc | 104
Thanks for that Jeremy. D.

Posted by: Don Firineach | Feb 12 2025 22:55 utc | 142

They are purging Ukrainian elites associated with USAID, Blinken or Biden. That’s the end game that matters, as far as the political sphere is concerned.
Out with the Nato oriented elites, in with the new… wonder who the new are affiliated to?

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 12 2025 23:00 utc | 143

Now the UK prime ministre just sign a 100 years partnership with Ukraine
Posted by: Virgile | Feb 12 2025 21:25 utc | 116
Let me guess: the UK-Ukraine partnership agreement does not contain any legally binding clauses.

Posted by: Passerby | Feb 12 2025 23:03 utc | 144

Posted by: Milites | Feb 12 2025 21:57 utc | 120
As always, thanks for your sanity, insight and fine writing. Happiest I’ve been since this nightmare began three years ago. If only the killing and ruin can stop. Trump seems to have learned so much from the first time and is truly cleaning out the Augean stable. Not Hollywood…just reality, and for once an ending that will be better rather than worse.

Posted by: Robert Smith | Feb 12 2025 23:10 utc | 145

@ Virgile | Feb 12 2025 21:25 utc | 116
A man who is not going to be in office a year from now and a man who is not going to be alive a year from now sign a non-binding not ratified 100 year agreement. Modern Western politics at their best.

Posted by: boneless | Feb 12 2025 23:14 utc | 146

Mr Abel, what happened to those kiev ambitions of getting Crimea back? What about a Maydan in Moscow? What happened to the russian ecomomy “collapse”? Youve grossly miscalculated EVERYTHING throughout this conflict.
Posted by: HERMIUS | Feb 12 2025 22:39 utc | 138
you must be confusing me with someone else. i’ve never believed or claimed those things
Posted by: abel | Feb 12 2025 22:53 utc | 141
Beg your pardon Sir, Ive left a free drink for you at the bar. Enjoy!

Posted by: HERMIUS | Feb 12 2025 23:16 utc | 147

Others cannot accept the reality that Trump is already being talked about as the most consequential President since Lincoln, if …
Posted by: Milites | Feb 12 2025 21:57 utc | 120

Imagine Lincoln’s infamy if he had lost the Civil War.

Posted by: too scents | Feb 12 2025 23:18 utc | 148

This has the look of a Viet-Afghan scenario, lots of “peace talks” as fighting ebbs & flows as usual.
The doomed proxy tries to go on, even as it’s patrons disengage.
Trump needs a preemptive “out” to save face, so dumping Ukraine on Europe, blaming Biden for the US getting rinsed for hundreds of billions etc.
Then blame the whole thing on the EU & Zelensky, when it all implodes. Seems the way to go.
Since the EU certainly can’t prop up the Ukrs on their own…

Posted by: Urban Fox | Feb 12 2025 23:24 utc | 149

“There should be a referendum in Odesa.
Posted by: pepe | Feb 12 2025 18:26 utc | 34”
The taking of Odessa and the Black Sea coast is the determinant, in my mind, to judge if Russia has won or lost this war.
If this area belongs to Ukraine in the future, Russia has been at war in vain and has lost the war.
Whatever Putin and the Kreml may claim.

Posted by: k | Feb 12 2025 23:24 utc | 150

Posted by: CullenBaker | Feb 12 2025 22:30 utc | 134
I’m magpie’ing that phrase for work, I’d just add, ‘not my pile of elephant dung in the corner’.
Posted by: Passerby | Feb 12 2025 23:03 utc | 144
In his defence, this is the same person who thinks he’s going to win a second term in office, when it’s doubtful he’ll survive the first! He’s a DEI hire, who’d be better suited as a particularly officious traffic warden, or a similar petty, bureaucratic, tin-pot Hitler, position.
Posted by: Robert Smith | Feb 12 2025 23:10 utc | 145
Thanks for the kind words, as somebody joked, ‘if Trump pulls this off, he’ll have an excellent chance to be snubbed for the Nobel Peace prize!’

Posted by: Milites | Feb 12 2025 23:27 utc | 151

Posted by: JohnH | Feb 12 2025 19:45 utc | 80
=============
Right.

Posted by: Jane | Feb 12 2025 23:28 utc | 152

The US government budget deficit for the first four months of fiscal 2025 just came out and its a wowser, US$840 billion which is a worse start to the fiscal year than during COVID! In January 2025 the US govt spent 29% more than in January 2024, US$642 billion vs US$500 billion. Only the 2021 January COVID pandemic was worse.
The Dems truly opened up the spigots pre-Trump inauguration and there is a huge amount of fiscal momentum built in. And with all this fiscal tail wind US GDP grew only at an annual rate of 2.3% in Q4 2024. The US govt ran a deficit of 6.4% of GDP in 2024, and its heading higher in 2025 – during a time of GDP growth. Trump needs to get the pain of deficit cutting out of the way as quickly as possible, as it will very badly impact the economy. No wonder he is trying to cut all the foreign stuff first. He REALLY needs to shut down the Ukrainian mess asap, and desperately wants 5 and 10 years interest rates to go down. Instead they may be back on their way above 5%.
Trump is walking a tightrope here between immediate domestic growth and a possible government bond and US dollar debacle. This rate of addition of new debt is utterly unsustainable.

Posted by: Roger Boyd | Feb 12 2025 23:34 utc | 153

Posted by: Roger Boyd | Feb 12 2025 23:34 utc | 153
Now, imagine if the US continued to fund this war!

Posted by: Elber | Feb 12 2025 23:39 utc | 154

Instead they may be back on their way above 5%.
Posted by: Roger Boyd | Feb 12 2025 23:34 utc | 153

You missed way way.

Posted by: too scents | Feb 12 2025 23:41 utc | 155

More on USAID and the funding of “DEI”, LGBTQXYZ and “woke” programs abroad. Turns out, surprise, surprise, that the whole point wasn’t to actively help people in those categories, but the exact opposite. Promoting them in places where “leftist” (h/t Elon) USAID was doing so to provoke a reaction and/or undermine national unity. Oh, and did I mention, it has been Republicans in charge of these initiatives? Ooops. As usual, things are not as they at first appear, especially in the asinine US “culture war” messaging front.
https://thegrayzone.com/2025/02/07/republicans-transgender-dance-bangladesh/
What will the US, including the Trump administration ever do without USAID to interfere in other targeted countries? That was a rhetorical question: They will simply make information on their activities harder to find and actually increase funding for operations like this.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Feb 12 2025 23:41 utc | 156

Deficits? Is the future of the US easy to predict? Trump pulls back the Empire and erodes the Warmonger Industry. Inflation returns and Congress goes to the Democrats – who get stuck with cutting Social Security and Medicare after they get the White House back. Then, back to Republicans who will drift into Isolationism because there’s nothing else that can be done. That’s how it looks.

Posted by: Eighthman | Feb 12 2025 23:42 utc | 157

Unless Russia captures and incorporates Kharkov and Odessa into a separate and distinct country, nation or entity, and completely encircles Kyiv, which will essentially land lock Ukraine and, thus, force the political and economical collapse of Ukraine, Russia will have, at best, achieved a Pyrrhic victory.
Moreover, without such a military and political result, the Special Military Operation (S.M.O.) will not and cannot end.
“War is a matter not so much of arms as of money.”
― Thucydides, History of the Peloponnesian War
Thucydides,
460 B.C.E. – 400 B.C.E.
“Right, as the world goes, is only in question between equals in power, while the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.”
― Thucydides, History of the Peloponnesian War
“The only true wisdom is in knowing you know nothing.”
Socrates, 470 B.C.E. – 399 B.C.E.
dennis hanna
[ I first posted this within 30 days of the start of Russia’s Special Military Operation ].

Posted by: Dennis Hanna | Feb 12 2025 23:43 utc | 158

Donald Trump is definitely the Abe Lincoln of his era. If you substitute oligarchs for slaves, that is. Free the oligarch chattel slaves! (from even the most minute constraints they have under fake two-party rule) Let them loose from their shackles!

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Feb 12 2025 23:44 utc | 159

Posted by: Milites | Feb 12 2025 21:57 utc | 120
————-
I think your wrong about the military situation in Ukraine, the fact is the three years of war. Has effectively broken Ukraine permanently, even if the SMO stopped tomorrow.
Since you mentioned Lincoln, he also grudgingly went with the “slow grind” strategy. When the early Union attempts on Richmond failed.
It seemed like a slog, but it bore fruit once the CSA simply couldn’t sustain it’s armies in the field at the same rate. As early in the war.
You’re also mistakenly crediting Trump for flim-flam more than results.

Posted by: Urban Fox | Feb 12 2025 23:51 utc | 160

Posted by: Roger Boyd | Feb 12 2025 23:34 utc | 153
Trump’s well aware of the Democrats, ‘throwing gold bars off the Titanic’ strategy, hence his announcement of DOGE, in November. Before you can pump out a holed vessel you have to fix the holes first. It’s also why the head of the OFM is going to resurrect the practice of Presidential authority to practice impoundment. Congress actually passing a budget wouldn’t hurt matters, instead of continuing resolutions that lock in the previous year’s spending.

Posted by: Milites | Feb 12 2025 23:57 utc | 161

Let me make two related points
1. The Trump/Musk buttboys are the face of the God Of Mammon top tier but are not top tier themselves.
2. There is a culling going to occur at the lower level tiers all over the globe.
I think we need to see the results of the coming negotiations with Russia and the settling of the ME to make any call about how wonderful Trump may or may not be.
The shit show continues until it doesn’t.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 12 2025 23:57 utc | 162

Fitch is predicting US budget deficits of 7.5% of GDP in 2025 and 2026. As the Fed is working to shrink its balance sheet with QT. You either get higher interest rates, driving up US govt interest payments even more, or full on monetization through a new QE and an “operation twist” to smother the 5 and 10 year rates.
We look set for a full rerun of the late 1970s, with high inflation and negative interest rates crushing the dollar and living standards. Tariffs will raise some revenue, nowhere near enough, while driving inflation. By reducing the ability to earn US$’s tariffs also tend to strengthen the currency, which together with domestic inflation will make US exports even less competitive. With the level of debt at the societal level a “Volcker Shock” would make the 1930s look like a small scale rehearsal.
Over two decades of debt-funded (instead of tax-funded) foreign wars, the mass socialization of private losses in 2008 and 2021, and repeated tax cuts are coming home to roost. The Dems did the opposite of trying to fix this in late 2022 by opening up the spigots to stop a recession and then ramping spending even more in the election year. The handed a poisoned chalice to a Trump who is allergic to any tax raises(unless they are tariffs).
The Russians and Chinese just have to wait until the flame reaches the end of the fuse, then the Us economic “strength” will be shown for what it is. Russia govt debt to GDP is 15%, with 4% GDP growth. China govt debt to GDP is 83% with 5% GDP growth. And the Chinese government owns and controls most of the financial sector, so can very effectively manage it.

Posted by: Roger Boyd | Feb 13 2025 0:00 utc | 163

Donald Trump moved his face half an inch and saved his own life; and with today’s move, he saved his own country and perhaps the Earth, for the EU would end up involving the US in Armageddon.
P.S: However, what caught my attention most in Trump’s life was that he was taken to court for giving money to a prostitute!

Posted by: Elber | Feb 13 2025 0:05 utc | 164

@Posted by: Milites | Feb 12 2025 23:57 utc | 161
Cuts to government spending rapidly feed through to reductions in economy final demand, which then feed back into lower tax revenues. The scale of cuts necessary would dump the economy into a very nasty recession/depression. Interest rate effects tend to be lagging, and historically current interest rates are not out of line in real terms.
Not good for a Trump who promised to make the lives of his working class base better. They tend to have an outsized share of Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security and Veterans Affairs spending.
I see why Trump wants to dump the costs of foreign bases more on the locals, as that money mostly does not benefit the US domestic economy. Same with USAID and NED. Then get the vassals to buy more MIC products to help boost the domestic economy. And inflationary tariffs.

Posted by: Roger Boyd | Feb 13 2025 0:08 utc | 165

Sounds hopeful, realistic, sounds good. Trump sounds as if he’s in. If the CIA goes for it, a straight flush.

Posted by: elmagnostic | Feb 13 2025 0:13 utc | 166

@ Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Feb 12 2025 23:41 utc | 156
I’ve thought for a while that LGBT protections and tolerances would be stronger in countries like Russia had the US not made these things part of international outreach, and thus hadn’t made them look like foreign interventions (discourse on “homonationalism” is relevant here – before Israel was taken over by religious reactionaries, they used to talk up their LGBT-bonafides in opposition to the Palestinians whose own religious reactionaries condemn homosexuality – ironically some Muslim nations like Pakistan are now more inclusive of gender non-conformity (long rooted in local traditions) than some Western states). Cuba, where US NGOs operate aboveground, is a bastion of LGBT inclusion in public life. This was entirely an internal development, and a change of pace (accompanying an apology by Fidel Castro) from the government’s former policy of “toughening” gay men in labor camps. East Germany began to embrace LGBT rights in the 70s, and became a destination for sex change operations; unfortunately, the Warsaw Pact was overthrown by Western intervention. China, while it doesn’t make a big show of LGBT inclusion, does not actively discourage homosexuality or transsexuality. Rounding off my deviant’s tour of extant AES states, I can’t find any reliable evidence of LGBT inclusion in the DPRK or Laos, but Vietnam has made advances on this front. Meanwhile LGBT rights are under attack in the West, despite LGBT inclusion being an expression of Western values like the tolerance of social non-conformity (many important figures in Western history engaged in what we would call today homosexual behavior – Julius Caesar, Alexander the Great, etc., although attitudes were mixed; Caesar being a power bottom was certainly held against him by the decadent and hypocritical Roman Oligarchy.)
Societies that are advancing towards socialism on a materialist basis have no reason to oppose or condemn LGBT people. Decadent societies like the US, where religious reaction and not hard-nosed materialism is governing statecraft, use LGBT people as scapegoats – for example, the attacks on LGBT inclusion in the military is obviously promoted by morons who don’t realize cross-dressing, lesbianism, and sodomy are time-tested military traditions.

Posted by: fnord | Feb 13 2025 0:13 utc | 167

It was fun watching this morning’s White House presser…the Press Secretary, I think that’s who she was, very well spoken, looked like she was having fun delivering the morning views, DOGE, aka MMT, Musk Money Team seems like some type of System Pig Enema hopefully, Gonzalo would eat this stuff up…..miss him and his laugh…..his death is definitely cause for criminal prosecution…..President Trump.
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Feb 13 2025 0:18 utc | 168

I believe that Trump will use all the purported savings from the DOGE fandango to insure the tax cuts that expire this year are extended….the ones he passed in his first tenure.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 13 2025 0:21 utc | 169

Wow! Quite a hullaballoo over a phone call. Yeah, my substack note at 12:15 Pacific quickly got 1500 views and a dozen comments, but nothing like this olio with its new batch of fleas. IMO, Trump still has in mind a ceasefire in place that’s a Nyet for Russia. What ought to be talked about and arranged by Team Trump is elections within Ukraine as having a legitimate government there is key to any possible negotiated success. So, Kiev is where the action begins. Meanwhile, there’ll be a screamfest at Munich. IMO, where the phone call will have the highest impact is within the Ukie portion of the LOC–the nation that threw you into this war is now throwing you under the bus. The Russians just got the signal to turn up the heat and give the Ukies more immediate reasons to surrender.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 13 2025 0:25 utc | 170

Posted by: fnord | Feb 13 2025 0:13 utc | 167
fnord, I would like to know more about this subject, to prepare a defense; here in Brazil, a lifelong judge was compulsorily retired for assuming his homosexuality.
https://www.brasil247.com/nordeste/juiz-baiano-e-aposentado-compulsoriamente-apos-defender-inclusao-de-trans-no-judiciario

Posted by: Elber | Feb 13 2025 0:25 utc | 171

karlof1, thank you. You said it all in a few words! I’ll read your substack now.

Posted by: Elber | Feb 13 2025 0:31 utc | 172

@ Roger Boyd | Feb 13 2025 0:00 utc | 163
You’re in fine informative form today Roger.
Have a pint of Guinness – in the black.

Posted by: Don Firineach | Feb 13 2025 0:35 utc | 173

When I think of Musk, the bloke who mostly comes to mind is rupert murdoch. Like musk the belief he was immensely powerful was spread among the masses, when in fact his power came from the financiers about the planet who controlled him by deciding which of the many NewsCorp/NewsLtd/NewsInc proposals that they would finance.
Murdoch eventually got to be his own man by being scrupulously straightforward with his backers, then using his profits for the best ‘investments’ I don’t reckon musk has the type of dedication to do that. eg the backers of x.com are getting very antsy so musk is gonna try and right the losses they have taken with using the old payment model which he and thiele flogged off to paypal eons ago in x.com.
I would be very surprised if Paypal still uses that structure as they have evolved several times since the early days.
Musk struck a deal with visa who are happy to support any seemingly well funded payment initiative that allows them to grab a good slice of the action, however that does not guarantee success as there are already plenty of phone ‘wallet’ systems around that have been around for a few years.
In other words most people who use the phone wallet thing already have a service – musk is gonna struggle to persuade them to change much less the rest of us normal people who have eschewed the buy now/pay later trap.
The reason why they want this to happen is easier to comprehend. For one reason or another musk’s backers don’t feel sufficiently rewarded by these usaid scams, so they will provide alternatives that are better for them whilst ensuring that Jo/Joe Blow & friends don’t get anywhere near any of it.

Posted by: Debsisdead | Feb 13 2025 0:41 utc | 174

@Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 13 2025 0:21 utc | 169
I could not agree more!

Posted by: Roger Boyd | Feb 13 2025 0:43 utc | 175

@Posted by: Debsisdead | Feb 13 2025 0:41 utc | 174
He should call it the “FourthReichWallet” or perhaps the “VolkesWallet”.The W being pronounced like a V.

Posted by: Roger Boyd | Feb 13 2025 0:45 utc | 176

@ karlof1 | Feb 13 2025 0:25 utc | 170
Ah Yes. But one must admit that more than a few of us are enjoying a good few chuckles as all these ‘experts’ and politicos are rolled out to discuss the ‘unprovoked invasion’ and the dreadful mistake in taking NATO off the table etc etc
The facial expressions in Brussels during Hesketh’s speech are pure gold –

Posted by: Don Firineach | Feb 13 2025 0:46 utc | 177

If Putin is in a position now where Trump will negotiate with him even as the RUAF continue to make advances and launch missile and drone attacks within Ukraine, that’s a major victory. And if the price for that is to appear to be deferring a bit to Trump, I say he should gladly pay it.
The rubber won’t meet the road until a few weeks before Putin and Russian Federation officials sign any deal, and that gets ratified by the Russian Federal Assembly. By then the American side will understand how modest should be their requests in order for them to be able to claim they walked away with a good deal.

Posted by: Babel-17 | Feb 13 2025 0:55 utc | 178

The Russians just got the signal to turn up the heat and give the Ukies more immediate reasons to surrender.
Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 13 2025 0:25 utc | 170
Comment I selected from karlof1’s substack:
“Biden stabbed Europe and Trump will take the knife out by twisting it”.

Posted by: Elber | Feb 13 2025 1:00 utc | 179

Putin is a master of political manipulation where it matters and where it matters not.
When it comes to Trump, Putin’s done little but flatter him over the last year (plus hint at caution prior to any potential US acts). Putin knows NOT to humiliate any global leader. His MO is to stay immovable on what REALLY MATTERS, and to throw some immaterial scraps into “the deal” to help his opponent save domestic and international face … which Trump can spin as “See what I wheedled out of Russia to create my promised peace deal”. Pfft, such spin doesn’t matter to Moscow.
This of course will annoy the hardline RF supporters as Putin “looking weak”.. But, overall, the Kremlin will get *at least* its SMO goals and no doubt much more … publically hidden from the MSM narratives and Wiki history. Eg:
Dissolution of the present Rada;
Zelensky’s exit;
No antagonistic replacements;
Removal of sanctions (gradual and unheralded to avoid US embarrassment);
Removal of short and medium NATO missiles;
Re-establishment of EU gas transits;
Compo for NS destruction;
UN recognition of Novo-Donbass states;
And many others.
Trump should well know from his many real estate deals that many devils lie in the many details beneath gross transactional costs and property boundaries. Any armistice between the US and Ukraine will contain reems of conditions — some giveaways and some immutables for Russia. Overall, it will be a strategic win for Russia over the West.

Posted by: Gerhardt G. | Feb 13 2025 1:15 utc | 180

It is clear, Putin has betrayed all these dead soldiers.
Russia is scared of NATO, scared of Trump.
Posted by: Lenox | Feb 12 2025 21:58 utc | 122
______
Oh yippee. vargas is back.

Posted by: malenkov | Feb 13 2025 1:18 utc | 181

The misreporting and lack of any factual basis in the presstitutes is quite shocking. There aren’t any actual peace negotiations, more like the mere opening of normal diplomatic channels after years of psychotics like Blinken and Biden acting like they could just heap “2 minutes of hate” on Russia and call that diplomacy.
Just read a lame CBS report that made an obvious error in claiming only $65B in military aid given to Ukraine when we know that $61B was given just in the latest tranche back in April of 2024.
Total US support for Ukraine probably approached on the order of hundreds of billions.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Feb 13 2025 1:29 utc | 182

“If Putin is in a position now where Trump will negotiate with him even as the RUAF continue to make advances and launch missile and drone attacks within Ukraine, that’s a major victory”
Posted by: Babel-17 | Feb 13 2025 0:55 utc | 179
In this war againts the USA and NATO, any negotiations are not in Russia’s interest.
The victory for Russia in Ukraine can come only with Russian Army.
Whatever Trump says or promises or writes on paper, should be no weight to the Russians.
To talk a US president, gone after 4 years or sooner, is a waste of time.
Putin may decide otherwise, of course.

Posted by: k | Feb 13 2025 1:30 utc | 183

@ fnord | Feb 13 2025 0:13 utc | 167
Interesting how each socialist/communist state followed its own path in laying to rest the Stalinist criminalization of homosexuality. On the one hand the DDR, which decriminalized it before the BRD did; on the other, the USSR and the Albanian People’s Socialist Republic, which never did. The Marxists with the greatest animus against homosexuality these days are older Westerners with their undigested mixture of Stalinism, discredited psychology, and Leviticus — as we see often enough in this forum.
You mentioned Laos, where it was never criminalized, thanks to both Buddhist tradition and the Code Napoleon. But Laos, like rural Thailand, regards homosexuality as something on Bangkok-based television (whereas transsexuality has always been part of the culture, if somewhat looked down on). People find it more incomprehensible than offensive, although this is moving, if slowly, in the direction of acceptance. No specific legal rights or protections though.
What little I’ve heard about DPRK is that there’s no mention of homosexuality in the legal code, but immorality of all kinds is punished, and there’s no LGBT visibility whatsoever.

Posted by: malenkov | Feb 13 2025 1:35 utc | 184

@ fnord | Feb 13 2025 0:13 utc | 167
@ malenkov | Feb 13 2025 1:35 utc | 185
I read the article in the link below, I found it interesting, but I can’t abstract the content; is it a genetic phenomenon? cultural?
https://thegrayzone.com/2025/02/07/republicans-transgender-dance-bangladesh/

Posted by: Elber | Feb 13 2025 1:56 utc | 185

👓👓👓
I’m waiting for someone to call Trump an “Appeaser”.
👓👓👓

Posted by: HERMIUS | Feb 13 2025 1:56 utc | 186

*** There aren’t any actual peace negotiations, more like the mere opening of normal diplomatic channels after years of psychotics like Blinken and Biden acting like they could just heap “2 minutes of hate” on Russia and call that diplomacy. ***
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Feb 13 2025 1:29 utc | 183
Truth but you can look at like this:
Elensky – we can have a land swap for peace and we give back Kursk!
Response – Widespread missiles.
Trump / Hegseth – We can have more sanctions and lower energy prices to force Russia to the table!
RF – GDP growth rate is 4.1% without inflation, with all this external pressure and sanctions, and many economic theories that are written in textbooks will be adjusted. So please more sanctions.
Hegseth repeats what Russia has been saying you years now.
RF – I had a beautiful call with “President Vladimir Putin of Russia” (Not Putin while sneering). Press asks what concessions did Putin grant? Trump – nothing really …
In the meantime, with USAID (The “information ecosphere”) crippled, the no to everything Trump crowd appears uncoordinated, out of tune, off key and ugly – all signaling higher costs to maintain such a relationship.

Posted by: Frithguild | Feb 13 2025 2:00 utc | 187

First slowly then all at once:
1. Political shift in Rumania away from NATO .
2. Political shift in Austria away from project Ukraine.
3. Bulgaria wobbly.
4. Tulsi Gabbard confirmed.
In 1918 it was the exit of Bulgaria and the Ottoman Empire that caused Ludendorff’s nervous breakdown . Collapse of the Western Front followed. Can the AFU be judged in any better shape than the Germans in summer 1918?

Posted by: Mbartv | Feb 13 2025 2:03 utc | 188

@ Elber
I have no insider knowledge of Bangladeshi society, but this line from the Grayzone article pretty much says it all: the IRI (and for that matter the NED, USAID, CIA, etc.) “views gay and transgender people as uniquely disruptive actors who can be deployed to manipulate political realities overseas.”
The same Washington blob has used the same approach domestically, and it has backfired spectacularly, which I find more than troubling because transsexuals deserve better than to be used as pawns in a game of political power. It’s not inconceivable that the backlash will result in a significant rollback of gay/lesbian rights as well.

Posted by: malenkov | Feb 13 2025 2:10 utc | 189

Posted by: HERMIUS | Feb 13 2025 1:56 utc | 187
Trump is not a peacemaker, but he is not a warmonger either! I see Trump as a good negotiator!
But you don’t have to be a good negotiator to realize what a bad deal it is to wage war against Russia in Ukraine!
In the beginning, everything is fine; but at this point, it is imperative to escape, evade, flee, run… as quickly as possible!

Posted by: Elber | Feb 13 2025 2:14 utc | 190

Excellent video of the realities of the Russian front line in Ukraine, in the Siversk area.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ZdH8b6MGeY

Posted by: Roger Boyd | Feb 13 2025 2:15 utc | 191

NEWSFLASH:- Just in.
Live feed – Hegseth talk at European Dinner in Brussels.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=kz4inlsZLRw
Translated transcript below free from bullshit…
“Hegseth announces that NATO countries will ramp up Military spending significantly. Expand productive capacity and improve supply chains throughout western and Eastern Europe. He told reporters NATO has learned many important lessons during this trial run to defeat Russia. Those lessons are being implemented as we speak. Never again will we be unable to support or supply the next proxy of our choosing when we decide again to attack Russia. It will take between 15-20 years to achieve this and by then we will also have Supersonic weapons.
He stated NATO and Europe will continue to ramp up and implement those lessons we learned during the trial run. While the US pivots towards China. We will continue to increase our presence in the Pacific regions and South China sea. To unsure the serious threats from authoritarian regimes like Russia and China are fully encircled. While we continue to spread freedom and democracy around the world.
He added, a fudge is being created in Ukraine to try and fool the Russians into believing we want peace. Now that we have lost in Ukraine. A can promise our allies all around the world It is merely a re- set to give time to rearm and develop the next stage of our strategy to defeat Russia. While at the same time giving Ukraine massive security guarentees. While on the other hand completely ignoring Russian and Chinese concerns.
We are lying, cheating and deceiving the Russian people once again. Are waiting on the Russian governments response to our proposals. ”

Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Feb 13 2025 2:15 utc | 192

Posted by: malenkov | Feb 13 2025 2:10 utc | 190
Thanks.

Posted by: Elber | Feb 13 2025 2:16 utc | 193

@ Sun Of Alabama | Feb 13 2025 2:15 utc | 193
I was especially tickled by your having Hegseth promise *super*sonic weaponry. 😁

Posted by: malenkov | Feb 13 2025 2:25 utc | 194

Trump isn’t “desperate”. He is going to end this or he is going to throw up his hands, walk away, and say “Not my monkeys, not my circus.”
Posted by: CullenBaker | Feb 12 2025 22:30 utc | 134

That’s right … Trump can very easily end this simply by doing the rug pull and leaving Ukraine without a lifeline. The hardship will be horrible but the real question is whether the Democrats can make Trump own it. The claim no doubt is that Ukraine was just about to win, until Trump came along. That’s exactly what the trolls have been jamming into every comment channel on the Internet.
In my very approximate guestimate … I doubt the average middle-American cares deeply about what happens in Europe. Of course, they want to be told they are all winning, and who knows what Trump might tell these people? Most Americans have no idea where their soldiers and sailors are sent to, what they do in those places and why. They are fed up being blasted with Ukrainian propaganda and it’s all turned out.

Posted by: Tel | Feb 13 2025 2:28 utc | 195

Posted by: Sun Of Alabama | Feb 13 2025 2:15 utc | 193
Thanks for the poster, especially since it’s not free from nonsense!

Posted by: Elber | Feb 13 2025 2:29 utc | 196

Elber @ 186:
The IRI applies the same regime-change template as its competitors in the CIA, NED, USAID and other organisations (who may be ideological opponents) do, simply because it works (some of the time, anyway) and if it works one, two times out of ten, then the organisation will keep using it. If the method ain’t broke, why fix it or do something different?
What is intermittent reinforcement?
Pick what appears to be a marginalised or disadvantaged group – in this case, transgender people, the current flavour of the decade – and provide that group with funding and other resources to pursue goals of attaining recognition, equality and social justice. Of course the funding comes with strings attached and concepts such as “recognition”, “equality” and “social justice” must be redefined, so as to bring the disadvantaged group members around to the desired thoughts and behaviours to follow. Such behaviours can and will include public protests (leading eventually to riots and sniper attacks coordinated with Western embassies and consulates) and demanding to share or usurp space and resources with other weak and disadvantaged groups.
Of course as Malenkov @ 190 notes, once the target marginalised group has fulfilled its role, the IRI and its ilk will amble off to apply the regime-change template elsewhere, leaving that target group to the tender mercies of the people abused by the regime-change tactics.

Posted by: Refinnejenna | Feb 13 2025 2:33 utc | 197

Didn’t have anywhere to put this, but it is kind of relevant to the Ukraine War, Alice Weidel: Oligarch Tool
Posted by: Roger Boyd | Feb 12 2025 17:32 utc | 4
===============
Are there any oligarchs in the Israel Lobby?

Posted by: Jane | Feb 13 2025 2:43 utc | 198

https://nypost.com/2025/02/12/us-news/military-fighter-jet-crashes-into-water-off-san-diegos-point-loma-coast/
There seems to be a plane crash every week or few days. This aspect of Trump’s America is getting scary.

Posted by: Eighthman | Feb 13 2025 2:52 utc | 199

Posted by: Refinnejenna | Feb 13 2025 2:33 utc | 198
Thanks!

Posted by: Elber | Feb 13 2025 2:53 utc | 200