Does Trump Really Have A Plan For Ukraine?

February 25, 2025

The weird thing about President Trump’s plans for Ukraine is that no knows what they actually are.

Over the last days I have tried to understand what he is trying to achieve. I fail to come up with a theory that makes sense. His behavior is inconsistent. There are also no helpful hints from the White House or leaks to the press. There is frenetic action here and there and pompous pronouncements. But what are the overall plans?

Prof. Mearsheimer likewise says (vid) that Trump’s behavior makes no sense. Blackmailing Ukraine into a resource extraction deal is not a realist position. It is not even mercantilistic. There is nothing to sell there and any deal will be scuppered by courts under oligarch pressure. It makes no sense.

So what is the evidence that Trump has a plan? What is the evidence that he is really negotiating with Russia? What is he factually doing to shut down the war as he has claimed he would do?

Yves Smith, quoting contrarian opinions of Brian Berletic and John Helmer, is likewise wondering what Trump is about:

Because the Trump Administration has no clear idea of what it wants in terms of a Ukraine end game, save being able to claim that Trump ended the war and is therefore a great deal-maker, it is at serious risk of falling into the behavior Sun Tsu warned about: “All tactics and no strategy is the noise before the defeat.”

Specifically, we’ll discuss how oddly under-amplified assessments by Brian Berletic and John Helmer, show that the idea, popular in the independent media, that Trump represents a great foreign policy break from the past is exaggerated. His difference in methods are being unduly confused with differences in aims.

But we’ll first address the way a new Administration pet fixation, that of wresting a minerals/other economic rights deal from Ukraine, is contrary to the aim of reaching an agreement with Russia.
…
Now this Ukraine minerals deal may be an example of Trump habits operating to his detriment. Consider how the Trump approach of maximizing his possible negotiating space by advancing all sorts of frame-breaking ideas is not such a hot idea when done reflexively, as seems to be the case in Trump 2.0, as opposed to deliberately.

Trump himself regularly threatens radically extreme actions, like ethnic cleansing in Gaza, and browbeats heads of state to try to get his way. Not only is Trump not getting his Riviera development there, but his bullying makes him look like a petulant jerkface. Why should anyone want to get in any relationship with a partner who relishes not just crass dominance displays but even humiliating heads of state (witness King Abdullah of Jordan) and is indifferent to destabilizing the entire region? These actions are inimical to building trust and dealing with anything other than subservient parties.
…
Or perhaps Trump and his operatives still believe that Russia is having trouble sustaining its war effort, and so shoring up US credibility and commitment will lead Russia to make concessions.

Neither approach one might think Trump is taking – to use a Ukraine resource deal to keep the U.S. in Ukraine and the war going, or to use the Ukraine resource deal to finally break with Ukraine – is consistent with a realistic assessment of the facts on the ground. At least not if the aim of the game is to make peace.

Trump is may be just rearranging the chairs before continuing with the same old imperial program:

Brian Berletic contends that most independent commentators have fallen for the MAGA/America First hype when Trump represents strategic continuity for the US by trying to maintain dominance, particularly vis-a-vis China. In particular, Berletic described, based on watching the full confirmation hearings for Trump defense and intelligence picks, that the US was not getting rid of the USAID regime change/messaging apparatus, merely shuttering its DEI and other MAGA-disapproved elements.
…
Needless to say, this assessment, based on what the Trump Administration has said it intends to do with USAID operations, is very much at odds with the conventional, complacent view that Trump has gotten the US out of the regime change business. Why pray tell, would it have been in the US’ strategic interest to do so? It’s not as if we could win any concessions for eliminating that apparatus.

Yves Smith’s take on John Helmer’s analysis:

Helmer based on his own experience in the Carter Administration as well as input from Russian sources confirming what could be inferred from the remarks of various participants [of the talks in Riyadh] was that the session, from the Russian vantage, was a train wreck. Even if you didn’t have the benefit of the reports afterwards, the way the US went about it was nuts. The US side demanded an immediate high level session, when those typically do not happen before adequate ground work has been undertaken. On top of that, the key members of the Trump foreign policy team had only just been installed. And with DOGE running a bulldozer through State, it’s not as if Rubio and his colleagues had any expertise (such as from career staffers who’d been there before Team Biden came in) to draw on.
…
He reprised some of its findings, and added new observations, in a talk with Nima of Dialogue Works.

From the very top:

Helmer: The Russian perception is that the American side is a kasha, is a porridge, is a mess. But it’s necessary not to be impolite and say so…..First, what should the Russian side do next?

This problem is actually serious. The US called for a high-level meeting and had no idea what to do then, no agenda, no asks, no proposals. The point seemed to be to create a perception of momentum and pretend that Trump was making serious progress on ending the war. Helmers points to the almost desperation of the US side in saying the fact of this meeting proved that Trump was the only man who could end the war … in lieu of having anything else to say.

The conclusion for me is that there is no Trump plan at all to make peace in Ukraine.

The conflict – in consequence – will have to be decided on the battlefield.

Posted by b on February 25, 2025 at 16:57 UTC | Permalink

Comments

In his chat with Judge Napolitano, Ambassador Chas Freeman said that Trump is “foreclosing” on Ukraine, but aside from that Trump has no outstanding plan as he has no cards to play. Putin in his interview with Zarubin presented a variety of carrots aimed at furthering the improvement of relations. However, it’s very clear that Russia is in no hurry to reach a negotiated end, although it does want one that specifically conforms to Russia’s desires. That sentence paraphrases numerous Russian officials recently and over many previous months and must be considered Russian policy.
But the issue is whether or not Trump has an actual plan. Perhaps Witkoff’s statement about using the abandoned Istanbul grounds as a starting point–a position that Putin has forwarded–IMO is what the US will use as its initial negotiating point, and some of the points raised within that aborted treaty have been floated as balloons by Team Trump.
The big disconnect by many that swallowed the false narrative for this war is that NATO/Outlaw US Empire have/are suffered/suffering a decisive defeat at the hands of Russia–no matter how badly they thirst to defeat Russia they cannot in any way whatsoever attain that goal, now or at anytime in the future. The very longstanding War against the Russian Empire, USSR, and Russian Federation is over, and all those Hawks cannot accept that primary fact.
Some in the EU have a plan for the future, but the vast majority don’t. They are stuck inside a hamster wheel of their own creation and don’t know how or don’t want to leave it. Trump clearly has escaped the hamster wheel but remains in the cage and is looking for an exit. Rhetorically he’s trying very hard to absolve the Outlaw US Empire of its guilt in having started this war of aggression against Russia. Witkoff and others have flipped the Narrative and now say the war was provoked, which we all know since the world’s aware of Nuland’s confession to Pyatt. No amount of spin can deny that basic fact. But I don’t see Trump’s rhetoric fooling much of the world.
IMO, Trump will have some inner disappointment that the treaty ending the Empire’s conflict with Russia won’t be ready to sign on 9 May. I’ll be surprised if it’s ready by 4 July. Remember, the biggest, most important part of this treaty will be the new Eurasian Security Structure, for that will need to be ready for Russia to end its SMO. Does Team Trump know that’s what it will be tasked to do? Gabbard might. IMO, Trump may also be realizing he has few cards to play against China, too. Trump has slowed the speed of the Outlaw US Empire’s plumet into the abyss created by its decline but it’s still headed downward. What his administration does until the next one supplants it will determine how hard the landing is.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 25 2025 19:52 utc | 101

I’m asking a serious question, I genuinely don’t understand. I would like anyone’s thoughts & opinions.
How is this minerals deal going to end the war? I thought the deal would drag Trump into it?

Posted by: Al Balog | Feb 25 2025 19:52 utc | 102

“No one in this room wants to live in a world where … international borders can be violated from one day to the next by anyone.””
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Feb 25 2025 19:51 utc | 100

im sure little macaroni is going to do everything in his power to un-violate serbias borders and return kosovo from natos illegal annexation.
french are honorable people after all, right?

Posted by: Justpassinby | Feb 25 2025 19:54 utc | 103

I recommend reading Helmer and Brian Berletic.
Actually I do not waste my time on orange idiot govt., as it is just the continuation of the same same.
The zionist bi…ch can never be committed to peace.
Read about the ‘division of labor’ between the exhausted USA and EU in their quest for world dominance- all is just a play for the hopeful and hopeless…

Posted by: stranger | Feb 25 2025 19:56 utc | 104

A couple of objections to presumed facts that are not in my judgment true: 1.Biden did pay a steep political cost for Afghanistan. Both factions of the mainstream media turned against him. I think Trump is aware of this. 2.If Trump was planning to blame Biden, he should have started during the campaign, and he should have started full-volume on Jan. 21. The longer he waits, the harder it is to simply blame Biden, however much he wants to keep campaigning against Biden.
I am not at all sure that opting for a full-scale world settlement with Russia first doesn’t act as an obstacle to settling US participation in Ukraine. This stuff about wanting more money from Ukraine seems likely to pose a similar obstacle in a Ukrainian settlement. It is not at all clear to me that Trump’s seeming indecision couldn’t be simple enough: He really thinks Europe can pay for a frozen war in Ukraine, saving the US the cost while keeping Europe divided from Russia, thus weaker competition.
Which brings us to the facts on the ground. I don’t typically post in Ukraine thread as I am not as schooled in military affairs as the habitues. I tend to latch onto the basics. And those basics include one rule of thumb: A successful offensive usually requires a numerical superiority (in the decisive arm) of two or even three to one. In that sense, the SMO is indeed not a war at all. Russia never had enough forces to push through and doesn’t now, not so far as I can see. Yes, attrition can wear away, then there is a sudden collapse. But as I understand the logistics, Ukraine has the EU for civilian economy, hasn’t lost enough territory to unhinge their ability to resupply. (No, attrition of forces and seizure of territory are not separate.)

Posted by: steven t johnson | Feb 25 2025 19:57 utc | 105

I think b’s conclusion that there is no plan, and Brian Berletic’s theory that the deep state is following through on an established plan are both true. the head of state is making a lot of noise with no real direction, so ultimately it will be the smaller cogs in the massive machinery that will steer it. namely, according to Berletic, that the division of labor is now for Europe to ‘freeze’ the Russian conflict and stall as long as possible, while the US fully pivots to take on China.
if that is the ‘plan’, it is doomed to fail. because china has already positioned itself in global trade and its manufacturing base and supply chains so that it cannot lose. only your opponent can determine if you win, while you yourself determine whether you may lose.
“He who knows his opponent and knows himself will not be imperiled in a hundred battles.”
China has been preparing for round 2 of US tariffs and economic warfare ever since Trump 1.0
China’s primary task now is to successfully manage US decline so that:
1. the US doesn’t do lash out and do something frightfully damaging to all, such as instigating a nuclear conflict.
Russia allowing its ‘red lines’ to be transgressed over and over again can also be understood this way. China-Russia are in the business of managing US decline.
2. to minimize the fallout if and when things on the US side finally quickly unwind. eg, China has ceased to buy corn and soybeans from the US, as if it was already blockaded in a hot war, turning to BRICS instead for its supply. and massive divesting from US treasuries in favor of gold and setting up BRICS alternatives to the dollar system.

Posted by: Mastameta | Feb 25 2025 20:01 utc | 106

The role of president is not to govern.
The role is to distract.
Makes perfect sense.

Posted by: Rae | Feb 25 2025 20:03 utc | 107

Szerintem az Ukrajnával kötött ásványi anyagokkal kapcsolatos ügylet a legrosszabb dolog, amit Trump tehet. Szerintem az egyetlen dolog, ami megtörténhet, az az, hogy Trump “igen”t mond arra, hogy új katonai támogatási csomagokat biztosítson Ukrajnának, cserébe az ásványokért.
Még öngyilkosabb, hogy Putyin azt mondja, “nem zavarja”, ha Ukrajna és Trump “igen”-t mond az ásványi egyezményre.
Hacsak nem kapom félre az információimat, úgy gondolom, Trump és Putyin is nagyon naivak az Ukrajnával kötött ásványi anyagokkal kapcsolatban. 🙁
Ettől Orbán Viktor inkább “ember”nek tűnik, mint Trumpnak és Putyinnak, akik nem fogják abbahagyni arról beszélni, hogy “nincs gondjuk” egy ásványi egyezséggel, amely Zelenszkijhez fegyvereket adhat.

Posted by: Al Balog | Feb 25 2025 20:07 utc | 108

I agree with quite a few of the commentators who see Trump driven by the following, in an increasingly focused way:
– The fiscal straight-jacket that he is in that he needs to rein in, while wanting to protect his beloved tax cuts
– The growing realization of how weak the West and Ukraine are and how strong Russia is
– The desperate need to refocus on China before it completely leaves the US behind
– His Zionist donors
The first one drives all the cost cutting, including pulling back on the US military spend abroad (Ukraine, all the bases in vassal territories) and slashing and burning anything that he can find to cut (DOGE).
The second also drives the pullback in Ukraine, as there will either be peace or escalating costs that the US can no longer afford in what is obviously a losing exercise.
The third drives the move out of Ukraine/Europe and toward Asia.
The fourth keeps him hooked into the Israel/Iran conflict.
So getting the hell out of Ukraine and making peace with Russia is part of the first three. And if Trump can screw some extra money out of Ukraine why not, its just a side deal to the main event.
The problem for Trump is that cutting government spending will remove all the stimulus that Biden had poured into the economy, so a recession will be the result. Better to get that over fast rather than it colour the back end of his administration. He wants to go out on a high note (the man is getting closer to his expiry date every day and is not exactly the healthiest old man), not on a low one.

Posted by: Roger Boyd | Feb 25 2025 20:11 utc | 109

Zelensky (the dictator of Ukraine) has reportedly accepted and signed Trump’s mineral deal.
Most likely it won’t take long until Trump publicly establishes that Ukraine does not control, and the prospects of it controlling said minerals is low, which leads to a valid argument to ditch the deal and give Trump alibi to say he did all he could.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 25 2025 20:11 utc | 110

Posted by: steven t johnson | Feb 25 2025 19:57 utc | 105

I don’t typically post in Ukraine thread as I am not as schooled in military affairs as the habitues.

It might be worth your no doubt valuable time actually reading the Ukraine threads before commenting, because

I tend to latch onto the basics. And those basics include one rule of thumb: A successful offensive usually requires a numerical superiority (in the decisive arm) of two or even three to one. In that sense, the SMO is indeed not a war at all. Russia never had enough forces to push through and doesn’t now, not so far as I can see. Yes, attrition can wear away, then there is a sudden collapse. But as I understand the logistics, Ukraine has the EU for civilian economy, hasn’t lost enough territory to unhinge their ability to resupply. (No, attrition of forces and seizure of territory are not separate.)

has been discussed in detail and at length in numerous Ukraine topics.
As some forums would put it: “Lurk Moar”…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 25 2025 20:14 utc | 111

Starmer – doesn’t care one little bit about the population in Britain, especially the less fortunate ones.
“BAE’s share price jumps as Keir Starmer announces he’ll increase military spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027.
Military-industrial complex guides policy, not “national security”. They fund “think tanks” to push militarism.
Meanwhile, the two-child benefit cap is still in place.”
https://nitter.poast.org/kennardmatt/status/1894391434859454949#m

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Feb 25 2025 20:18 utc | 112

The distinct foreign policy change of the Trump admin compared to its predecessor is the emphasis on ceasefire and negotiation in the two major hot conflicts – Ukraine and Gaza. The Biden admin refused to speak with the Russians, period. And their diplomatic efforts over Gaza consisted largely of heading off any momentum toward a ceasefire, particularly at UN.
The American emphasis on the Instanbul “Protocol”, regardless if it informs future negotiations or not, undermines the Project Ukraine narrative because, being considered, it raises the obvious questions: why was the 2022 negotiation unsuccessful and who was responsible for scuppering it?

Posted by: jayc | Feb 25 2025 20:18 utc | 113

@Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 25 2025 19:52 utc | 101
Possession is nine tenths of the law as they say, and I can see the Russian leadership dragging this out through a Spring offensive to gain a lot more possession as the Ukrainians start to disintegrate. It will also put them at a much stronger position at the negotiating table.
I don’t see an offensive slow down to placate the US, I see a methodical arranging of positions prior to a Spring offensive with a well rested and rotated attacking force, once the time of mud has finished in April. With the Russians in the south able to flank the Ukrainian emplacements to the north, and well setup in the north around Kupyansk, north of Lyman, and around Sumy. And subduing Chasov Yar.

Posted by: Roger Boyd | Feb 25 2025 20:19 utc | 114

In deal US gets Ukrainian resources in exchange of financial help?
https://www.ft.com/content/1890d104-1395-4393-a71d-d299aed448e6
Not in exchange for supporting the war.
Also, resources does not mean rare earths. The latter are too low quality to exploit

Posted by: Tuyzentfloot | Feb 25 2025 20:20 utc | 115

Posted by: Roger Boyd | Feb 25 2025 20:11 utc | 109
You are right. Ultimately what is driving USA out of Ukraine is the fact that they were losing dollar hegemony, which would have imploded the domestic US economy through massive inflation and inability to export US dollar around the world.
So they detach Ukraine and hope to claw back some US dollar influence around the world. And create a rift between China and Russia. Xi and Putin recently had a phone call which suggested this has failed.
Most likely, the mineral deal with Ukraine won’t materialize because Ukraine can’t deliver. Instead, Russia reportedly is making its own mineral deal with USA, the minerals in Donbass can partially be extracted by US companies, but the difference between EU and Russia is US companies have to pay their fair share of the extraction and environmental impacts.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 25 2025 20:21 utc | 116

What Zelensky agrees with or not certainly does not matter in any way.
Anyone else (you, me) has as much (or more!) authority to agree with anything as Zelensky does.

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Feb 25 2025 20:21 utc | 117

If you want to understand trump. The final minute of this video is all you need to know
https://youtube.com/watch?v=CAbCQZAFqUU&si=p04tJ_zJD_GCRIIj

Posted by: Feck | Feb 25 2025 20:22 utc | 118

mastameta@2001 Feb25
One quibble regarding China. U$ soybeans and corn are not merely genetically modified, virtually to the nth degree; they are also subject to massive infusions of chemical warfare via all the nasty chemicals profiting the Big Ag Racket. If the current regime centering in Beijing follow the Tao, then such understandings would inform their decisions in a positive manner and thusly reject those poisoned foodstuffs.

Posted by: aristodemos | Feb 25 2025 20:24 utc | 119

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 25 2025 20:24 utc | 120

It is too early to have an actual plan. The tactics are to wedge the US apart from Europe and thus wedge Ukraine away from Europe. Ukraine has more energy and momentum than reality should grant. Zealots are not deal makers. Once they are neutralized they lay of the land is easier to see.
Hungary coming up with legislation to neutralize NGOs and resulting color revolutions is an interesting development. The end legislative result may end up being an RF point of agreement for post war Galicia / Volynia.

Posted by: frithguild | Feb 25 2025 20:26 utc | 121

Wrong, a good business man does not file for bankruptcy a dozen times. Not one of his ‘ventures’ ever made it past 10 years before blowing up. He did however manage to keep his money so he loves to sucker fools, but that is not a ‘good’ business model. That is a grifter.
Posted by: motorslug | Feb 25 2025 17:41 utc | 22

On the contrary, he is a paragon of predatory capitalism in a ‘small’ government, low regulation, ‘free’ market system, where such regulations as there are are written by the businesses that are subject to them and rubber stamped by captive politicians and bureaucrats.
In short: set the system up a certain way and expect certain adaptive behaviours to emerge.
Trump is neither good nor bad, but a rational actor within a certain economic framework.

Posted by: ChatNPC | Feb 25 2025 20:26 utc | 122

I think the plan of the US is what RAND published and Michael Hudson informed about: To weaken European competition. To make european industry shrink.
One way to do it was by the sabotage of nordstream
But the recent appearance of Vance may be seen as a way to decrease european motivation to develop more new weapons systems instead of buying from the US.
When Europe turns out to want to continue the war the most likely motive is that the europeans want to repeat what the US did namely to pump tax payers money into the home industry. But we know the US wants us to do as they say (buy their weapons) and not do what they do(produce them in competitive european setting).
They want Europe to spend 5% on military equipment but to import it from the US.
That is how I interpret the lecture by Vance and I assume the smart people within the oligarchy have written his manuscript?

Posted by: petergrfstrm | Feb 25 2025 20:27 utc | 123

Ukraine has agreed a deal with the US on rare earth metals after Washington abandoned tough demands, including 100% control over production, the Financial Times (https://www.ft.com/content/1890d104-1395-4393-a71d-d299aed448e6?utm_source=chatgpt.com) reports.
In the updated agreement:
– The US has dropped its demand to receive $500 billion in income from Ukrainian resources.
– The clause on full US control over the commercial fund has been excluded.
– A fund is being created to which Ukraine will direct 50% of the income from the monetization of minerals, oil, gas and infrastructure.
– The fund’s resources will be used for investment projects in Ukraine.
– Other conditions may be specified in additional agreements.
Zelensky may travel to Washington in the coming weeks for a deal signing ceremony with Trump

https://t.me/ForeignAgentIntel/13821

Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 25 2025 20:31 utc | 124

The mineral deal is a red herring.
In the days of fox hunts hundreds of years ago, the serfs would have a very bad winter if the lord. The horses and the pack of baying hounds ran through your field. So the serfs would surround their crops with herring, which would put the hounds off the scent if the fox passed that way. The herring would rot in the summer sun, smell horrible and ultimately turn red. Thus, red herring.
What is Zelensky and Europe but a bunch of barking dogs?

Posted by: frithguild | Feb 25 2025 20:42 utc | 125

@ 60 Michael Droy.
The US completely alienating Europe and forcing it to engage in a reasonable way with the Row is my best case scenario.
Interesting times.
JB

Posted by: Judge Barbier | Feb 25 2025 20:43 utc | 126

Clearly, there is no coherent plan. The idiot Starmer in the UK keeps repeating crazy nonsense that has been rejected long ago. And Trump appears to be in on some of it:

🇺🇸🇬🇧🇷🇺 To stop the war: British PM to discuss Russia’s return to the G7 with Trump
▪️British Security Minister Dan Jarvis told The Times this, without ruling out the possibility of Russia’s return to the G8.
▪️Trump recently proposed returning Russia to the G8.
➖”This will be an issue that will be discussed with international allies. And this is an issue that will undoubtedly be considered when the conflict in Ukraine is over,” the minister said.
▪️He added that Starmer would “discuss these issues with the US president later this week.” This is seen as motivation for Russia to end the war.
▪️Earlier, Germany spoke out against Russia’s return to the G8.
▪️At the same time, Moscow stated that it is not interested in returning to the top eight.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/120393
The Russians have no interest in the G7 when they have BRICS, and they have said so. This looks like panic.

Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 25 2025 20:45 utc | 127

Here’s the plan as I see it. Billions upon billions are still in Kiev, UK and Paris (Rothenchilds) want as much of that loot as they can get, Wall Street want all of it. What happens to Ukraine is irrelevant as is what Russia intends to do.

Posted by: Ogre | Feb 25 2025 20:46 utc | 128

Funny outcome if true. The mineral deal was to pay back the US for all the aid it sent, now it appears to put half the profit in a fund to rebuild the country. Will it keep the profits out of the oligarchs hands? Interesting.

Posted by: nook | Feb 25 2025 20:47 utc | 129

Posted by: Night Tripper | Feb 25 2025 20:49 utc | 130

The mineral deal is the nail in the coffin of the war. The Russians have very little more to gain before they hit the ‘trip-Wire’ of American controlled assets in Ukraine. For obvious reasons the Eussisns will not be able to advance into those areas.
Posted by: Night Tripper | Feb 25 2025 20:49 utc | 130
I hope the minerals deal signals the end, but I am very unsure and I think the opposite. I hope I am wrong.
As I wrote prior I think it is a way to prolong the war and to get Trump to send more weapons and military aid to Ukraine.

Posted by: Al Balog | Feb 25 2025 20:50 utc | 131

EU army = NATO-1
That’s pretty close to Charles de Gaulle’s vision from ~1950, non?
I used UK=O there, of course.
One pre-MoA strategist worried about a scenario where old Europe was left to be but the rim lands to the sea. I see the corresponding Russia would fulfill the strategic imperative Brave Sir Schadebanned floated, where she defends the steppe at its gates, which apparently includes portions of baltic nations, too; among them Suomi.
Heretics want to know if we can thence deduce the Great Knight Banned was british.

Posted by: persiflo | Feb 25 2025 20:51 utc | 132

Does any minerals deal include excavating and refining the dust and rubble of Yuzhmash? Who knows what traces of exotic, high-temperature materials might be found there???

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 25 2025 20:56 utc | 133

I hope the minerals deal signals the end, but I am very unsure and I think the opposite.
Posted by: Al Balog | Feb 25 2025 20:50 utc | 131
I hope the ‘red lines’ created by the mineral deal are ignored.
Odessa for example is Russian and they must secure it.
As soon as peace treaty is signed, European ‘peacekeepers’ will enter the rump state and be able to covertly provoke.

Posted by: Night Tripper | Feb 25 2025 20:56 utc | 134

Napolian had to retreat so did hitler….
Take it from their boys.

Posted by: Mark2 | Feb 25 2025 20:57 utc | 135

IMHO there is nothing that USA, EU let alone Ukraine have to bargain.
Winning against RF conventionally by Nato is probably unfeasable, and nuclear option is, hopefully not a real one.
What we are seeing is what most here on MoA had already forecasted, how to make a loss appear as a victory.
Trump or USA, maybe surprising rest of West (EU) decided to blame Europe and/or previously administration and to make some kabuky on inexistent rare earth business in order to sell this as a victory in homeland.
Europe is trying something but being late, as usual.
I would expect some shit hitting the fan and that will be the fat lady singing moment.

Posted by: Mario | Feb 25 2025 20:57 utc | 136

I think Trump has a plan.
He just got US skin in the game with the “legal” Ukraine Rare Earths and More deal. That means Trump now has a card to negotiate with Russia….. This also says that it will be harder for Russia to execute the rump division scenario of portions going to neighboring countries and Ukraine being no more.
Trump is still committed to having US troops on the ground in Europe that pays for their existence on European soil and for being under the US nuclear umbrella.
Trump knows that the relationship with Russia is not just about Ukraine and Europe so negotiations will be structured and compartmentalized so that the yapping poodles of Europe will be brought in at the appropriate time.
Trump knows that negotiation with Russia will effect the China/US conflict as well as Occupied Palestine.
The last thing I would note is that their are at least 3 narratives that are trying to be integrated, Trumps, the global elite opposing Trump and Russia’s. I would go with the Russia narrative until we see actions by the other two instead of bloviations.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 25 2025 20:58 utc | 137

Trump doesn’t have a plan on anything. He just likes to BS and sound important. He’s a pro wrestling TV celebrity. All fluff and no plan. I say this as someone who still voted for him, rather than Kamala. But there IS NO 5D CHESS.
No secret plans. No crazy like a fox. No…”he must have some secret plan or else he’s just being a scatterbrain”. What you see is what you get. Occam’s Razor. He’s full of BS. Remember the border wall Mexico was going to pay for in 2017? Remember how he said the war would be over a day after his election (even before inauguration).
I’ve actually been impressed by Elon so far. And I like Hegseth, Tulsi, RFK, Kash…as at least shaking things up.
But there is no secret plan. For anything!

Posted by: Anonymous | Feb 25 2025 20:59 utc | 138

What if this is a ruse ? Its obvious that Ukraine would be defeated anyway, yet economic compettition with Russia is nonsense for the US … so what if he just creates the circumstances to:
– Make Europe to fall with Ukraine to be a new and very oidient future near third-world ?
– Make sure Rusia has most of the actually interresting resourcess under its controll at the end of the war to be exploited by the US in cahuts with Russia ? ( she has enough resourcess anyway and its not a bad deal if US really pulls all its bases to the 1990 lines )
– Make sure, any support for the remainder of Ucraine would be purely EUs wallet problem, by making sure all EU citizen see, that it was the proactive effort of theyr own governments to do so, in light of the US stopping its own. Thus cleaning their hands in front of the EU citizens from the war, that they actually started and pushed/dragged Europe to be a part of ?

Posted by: Pyton | Feb 25 2025 20:59 utc | 139

Is Trump well?
https://x.com/RT_com/status/1894469878498685007

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 25 2025 21:00 utc | 140

Seriously but not literally, folks. Finding something Trump said that was objectionable (Palestinians out, Zelensky a dictator) and objecting to it is fine as far as it goes but don’t mistake it for analysis. I found the Russian take on Trump to be the best: it’s like a reconnaissance in force, he comes in and shakes things up and then sees how people react, then he adjusts and continues. From Sun Tzu having people not be able to predict you or understand your strategy is a positive (assuming you *do* have one).
I think Trump sees Ukraine as 1) a quicksand trap set by the Biden admin that he doesn’t want to waste any more time or political capital on than absolutely necessary and 2) a place where a lot of the treasonous falsehoods were cooked up so Trump has a list of scores to settle. I see the statements by Vance at the msc as clear warning to the EU that joining the Democrats in partisan US warfare is a dangerous game. (not that what Starmer did was new; Obama sent some of his operatives to work against Netanyahu).
I flatly don’t think Trump has a specific endgame for Ukraine, just a direction to go in and he’s using misdirection and bluster to figure out what is actually possible to agree on.
I hope this finds you well

Posted by: ockham | Feb 25 2025 21:04 utc | 141

🇷🇺🇪🇺 We do not see any prerequisites for resuming dialogue with Europe — Peskov
“Europe continues to follow the path of sanctions dive and conviction of continuing the war. This conviction of the Europeans is in complete contrast to the mood to find ways to resolve the Ukrainian conflict”

https://t.me/ukraine_watch/37589

🔘 An independent Ukraine does not exist, as demonstrated by the closure of USAID, Russian Permanent Representative to the UN Nebenzya stated.
He noted that the agency largely paid for the activities of the Ukrainian state apparatus and also had a direct influence on the judicial system of Ukraine.

https://t.me/ukraine_watch/37626
One can see where this is going. What is signed with the US is not what matters in the end.

Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 25 2025 21:04 utc | 142

@Mario | Feb 25 2025 20:57 utc | 136

What we are seeing is what most here on MoA had already forecasted, how to make a loss appear as a victory.

I agree, the classic: Declare victory and leave.

Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 25 2025 21:07 utc | 143

One can see where this is going. What is signed with the US is not what matters in the end.
Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 25 2025 21:04 utc | 142
Do you think this is a Russian reaction for Trump making Ukraine the minerals deal?

Posted by: Al Balog | Feb 25 2025 21:10 utc | 144

As soon as peace treaty is signed, European ‘peacekeepers’ will enter the rump state and be able to covertly provoke.
Posted by: Night Tripper | Feb 25 2025 20:56 utc | 134
This is literally my biggest concern.

Posted by: Al Balog | Feb 25 2025 21:11 utc | 145

The construct Ukraine solely exists by NATO money, especially from the USA.
Take the money out and there isn’t really any Ukraine left at this point.
This war utterly ruined Ukraine and that not by Russian bombs, with the main destruction by the war being done in the Donbass, which Russia will rebuild (and partly already does), but by debt. Endless, crushing debt.
And the massive lost in people by death and flight just makes it worse.
The richest regions are also lost not stolen by Russia, who simply intervened to defend them, but forever scared away by the regime and its brutality.
What remains is a mess with a debt that would be desastrous for the old Ukraine, but for these fish bones it’s just utter annihilation.
There is somehow a chance, that Ukraine might not just cease to exist, but this will be solely in the claws of those who will not care at all to exploit this to no end.
Trump is already doing just that and Europe followed along.
It’s almost ‘funny’, how obvious the are in their fascism, because you only hear them talk about defeating Russia, about war, about Ukraine as the regime – but you never hear them talk about the Ukrainians, especially not about those in the zones this war ist about…
There is simply no need to listen to “Russian propaganda”. It’s more than enough to listen to our fascists – and just understand what they are actually saying.
Jungle and garden. Civilized vs uncivilized world. Uberhuman vs Subhuman…
They NEVER stopped thinking like that. They just changed some words.

Posted by: Beatrice | Feb 25 2025 21:11 utc | 146

@Al Balog | Feb 25 2025 21:10 utc | 144
I don’t think it is a reaction by the Russians, they have prepared their strategy long ago.

Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 25 2025 21:12 utc | 147

Posted by: nook | Feb 25 2025 20:47 utc | 129
Apparently the mineral deal is:
-sell US companies minerals
-US companies pays minerals into a ‘Ukraine rebuild fund’
-the Ukraine rebuild fund purchases good and services from US companies
Basically the same as the ‘supporting Ukraine’ which meant buying weapons from US companies.
But this deal might not live long, because US is making also a mineral deal with Russia, which specifically focuses on ex-404 minerals in Donbass.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 25 2025 21:15 utc | 148

Dose europe want to see it’s citys turned to rubble ?
Any thing else is just saber rattling.

Posted by: Mark2 | Feb 25 2025 21:15 utc | 149

But this deal might not live long, because US is making also a mineral deal with Russia, which specifically focuses on ex-404 minerals in Donbass.
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 25 2025 21:15 utc | 148
https://oroszhirek.hu/ft-zelenszkij-eladta-ukrajnat-es-beleegyezett-trump-asvanyi-anyagokkal-kapcsolatos-megallapodasaba/
On this Hungarian website that I follow, someone did respond to me.
Kincses Krisztián:
mondták, hogy trump üzletember,erre én és még sokan mások azt mondták, hogy ha az usanak jó üzlet a háború, akkor minden megy ugyanúgy tovább, ahogy eddig…
elvben(!) egy-két újdonság van: 1. Putyin felajánlotta trumpnak, hogy alumíniumot és titánt ad el az usanak( mindkettőből jóval több van nekik,mint ukrajnában van),2. a fontosabb ásványkincsek lelőhelyei oroszok által elfoglalt területeken vannak…lantán, lítium, urán
Google Translated:
they said that trump is a businessman, to which I and many others said that if war is good business for the usa, then everything will continue as before…
in principle(!) there are a couple of new things: 1. Putin offered trump to sell aluminum and titanium to the usa (they have much more of both than ukraine has), 2. the most important mineral deposits are in areas occupied by the russians…lanthanum, lithium, uranium

Posted by: Al Balog | Feb 25 2025 21:18 utc | 150

@116
The other fact besides losing dollar hegemony, is that USA simply ran out of ammo and weapons for Ukraine. Russia has blown up so many Nato ammo dumps in Ukraine, worth a year of production in a few months. So they withdraw from the lost war under the cover of ‘Trump betrayed Ukraine’.
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 25 2025 20:24 utc | 120
At least to try to rule the world.
Not 80 years after constantinople became the center, it washed its hands of the west, iberia lost, gaul lost, britain lost, it was the way to remain the major power. In 40 years the us will let the same happen to the “old empire”, maybe an intermediate return when this truce ends in a decade but finally the us will give up.
to become the proper size is the way to go forward for the us, they’re barely children, their true height is still centuries away, they were just taking care of old granny victoria’s store, but its crumbling…

Posted by: Newbie | Feb 25 2025 21:22 utc | 151

NATO’s aphorism just changed. Now it’s “Keep the Germans in, the US out, and the Russians down. It’s like all accidents : it has multiple factors.

Posted by: Hiro Masamune | Feb 25 2025 21:26 utc | 152

It seems that a lot of commentators are seeing what they want to see, or seeing what CNN/BBC has told them what to expect to see. Does President Trump have a plan? As Karlofi listed on his valuable site, a Russian reporter asked President Putin about that. With a hat tip to Karlofi, here is what President Putin responded:
“P. Zarubin: We hear a lot of different statements from Trump every day. You’ve met him more than once, and you recently had a phone conversation with him. Does he act on the basis of emotions?
Vladimir Putin: Of course not. Naturally, the current head of the regime in Kiev gives a reason to show these emotions. But from what I have just said, something completely different emerges: these actions are based, rather, not on emotions, but on cold calculation, on a rational approach to the current situation.”

Posted by: Gavin Longmuir | Feb 25 2025 21:32 utc | 153

Former U.S. ambassador to Hungary discusses democratic decay under Viktor Orbán – NPR Updated February 25, 202512:27 PM ET
Viktor Orbán is over the target – you can tell by the flack.

Posted by: frithguild | Feb 25 2025 21:35 utc | 154

Douglas Macgregor reporting peace deal reached.

Posted by: ZimInSeattle | Feb 25 2025 21:36 utc | 155

Night Tripper | Feb 25 2025 20:49 utc | 130
“The mineral deal is the nail in the coffin of the war. The Russians have very little more to gain before they hit the ‘trip-Wire’ of American controlled assets in Ukraine. For obvious reasons the Eussisns will not be able to advance into those areas.”
So you think Putin is a full-blown traitor who will try to sell out the entire war here at the end, using this a pretext? Self-evidently no honest Russian views this “deal” as anything but a meaningless joke and would not let it deter them from even one square yard’s advance for even one moment.
Perhaps it’s part of Trump’s political theater, and he intends to disavow it tomorrow claiming some new Zelensky perfidy. It’s purely irrelevant to Russia and the continued advance.

Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Feb 25 2025 21:37 utc | 156

Very soon we will have a war between Russia and the European Union , the colonizing west still think they are more superior to every one else , that is why behaving this way most of their existence.
The Ukrainian with their Nazi ellit were bombing the Russian leaving on the eastern front of Ukraine but no one will admit to it or recognize it , Russia will crush the European west once for all .
Trump is delusional, all he cares about is the continuous keeping attention on him , otherwise will not survive the events of the day .
The Democrats and the general public will cast him out very quickly as soon as few months , he is not a king but a criminal managed to fool a lot of people in the USA .the best con artist ever lived.
So here you have it .

Posted by: Bobb | Feb 25 2025 21:39 utc | 157

Roger Boyd | Feb 25 2025 20:19 utc | 114–
Thanks for your reply. it appears my analysis is too long for barflies to read and comment upon. Yes, Russia’s military hasn’t stopped and is currently creating more hotspots along the FEBA. Russia just completed the capture of a very stubborn locale that will allow it to bound forward. The decision to end the Kusk incursion instead of using it as a major meat grinder is now in motion with the aim of turning it into a vast cauldron. And there remains the need to secure all the new oblasts which means crossing the Dnieper to retake Kherson and beyond.
IMO, Russia’s political position is rock solid and immovable. Larry Johnson offers evidence related to what I wrote about the inability of the Cold Warriors to accept the reality that they’ve lost the longstanding War against Russia:

I hope the Russians understand that Donald Trump’s views towards Russia reflect a minority view in the United States. Most of the Republican and Democrat politicians, as well as the majority of intelligence and defense officers, see no difference between the Russia that exists today and the Soviet Union. Today, for example, a friend shared an email with me that he received from his buddy, a recently retired CIA case officer who is still doing contract work for the Agency. I am an acquaintance of that former CIA officer. In the email he voiced outrage at Trump “cozying up” to Putin and exclaimed: “I’ve spent forty years fighting those bastards and Trump is surrendering.” [Emphasis Original]

IMO, Russia’s well aware of that since it’s constantly reminded by Europeans daily.
Another reason for Trump’s seeming inaction/lack of plan is that he knows getting any treaty ratified that can be interpreted as the US being the loser will have little chance of getting the required 2/3s Senate approval. That’s a very real consideration I’ve seen no one mention. In other words, attaining peace with Russia doesn’t depend on Trump; it depends on the US Senate.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 25 2025 21:40 utc | 158

Gavin Longmuir@153…..Putin tipping the hat to Trump, whoda thunk it. Cold calculation, not based on emotions…..high praise for a guy with no plans.
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Feb 25 2025 21:43 utc | 159

Assumptions for the strategy behind Trump’s resource deal: 1. Trump has accepted that Ukraine is Russia’s backyard and satellite and will remain necessary as the Russians are ready to go to the end. 2. Trump knows the US dependence on certain raw materials such as uranium, titanium, rare earths and the like. 3. Trump knows the well-known dollar problems and therefore recognizes the need to separate Russia and China, or rather the BRICS, in order to prevent alternatives to the dollar. 4. Trump wants to cut spending and increase revenues.
Possible conclusions: 1. Trump is negotiating the deal with Ukraine to drive up the price of recognizing Ukraine as Russia’s backyard. In the end, Russia must offer a better commodity deal than Ukraine – i.e. very long-term and well below world market prices. This makes Russia the number 1 raw material supplier to the USA in the 21st century. 2. Sooner or later, Russia will be reintegrated into the world trade system, BRICS will be weakened, and alternatives to the dollar will be eliminated. 3. Europe is apparently supposed to ensure Ukraine’s security, which drives up Europeans’ spending, and thus massively increases the need for US goods and credit, so it is good for US producers and banks. Europe fails in the end – there is a mass exodus of value-adding companies to the USA. 4. Trump lowers the cost of the US military budget, strengthens security through multilateral trade. He could also possibly not care less about the Taiwan issue, as long as it results in an advantageous deal with China.
Trump apparently knows no taboos on the way to an economically better position of the USA in the world structure. One might think that he had studied classical Marxist-Leninist dialectics. Pure snake-like pragmatism.

Posted by: FreeEast0123 | Feb 25 2025 21:45 utc | 160

*** Another reason for Trump’s seeming inaction/lack of plan is that he knows getting any treaty ratified that can be interpreted as the US being the loser will have little chance of getting the required 2/3s Senate approval. That’s a very real consideration I’ve seen no one mention. In other words, attaining peace with Russia doesn’t depend on Trump; it depends on the US Senate.
Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 25 2025 21:40 utc | 158
Absolutely an issue, especially about the Senate and public opinion. Nothing will get through the Senate right now. RF knows this for certain.
But I’m not really sure peace requires the US to be a party to any treaties. The US is not a belligerent even though a case may be made to the contrary. It depends upon the scope of the security architecture.

Posted by: frithguild | Feb 25 2025 21:48 utc | 161

Gavin Longmuir | Feb 25 2025 21:32 utc | 153–
Thanks for noticing and promoting. One of the very critical things FDR said to Churchill when they met off Canada in early 1941 was the need to get Congress to act. As I note at the end of my comment @158, To attain peace with Russia, Trump will need the consent of the Senate despite the fact that no declaration of war was ever issued., which in itself might present another legal stumbling block to overcome.
IMO, the so-called rare earth’s deal is yet another trial balloon or smoke barrage to obscure the very unpleasant reality that the Outlaw US Empire has lost a major war against Russia that cost over a million combatants on its side alone.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 25 2025 21:52 utc | 162

I discuss my thoughts in the below link concluding with an afterthought
“Trump knows this deal gets rejected but he has already enticed his base and Congress with the idea continued funding for the War in Ukraine will provide $500 billion in dividends. He can paint Putins refusal to accept his good faith offer as proof he is a no good scoundrel and his faithful will eat it up like my dog devours pepperoni pizza and cheer the War on.”
https://pete843.substack.com/p/negotiating-a-new-versailles-treaty

Posted by: Pete Lincoln | Feb 25 2025 21:55 utc | 163

Trump’s only plan for Ukraine (and Gaza) is to get the Nobel Peace Prize.
If he gets that, it’ll be back to war, war and more war. Business as usual.

Posted by: David Pollard | Feb 25 2025 21:59 utc | 164

Yes, this is aligned with my point here that Trump is differing in method, but for the moment at least, is essentially bipartisan :
The US is Being Pulled, Kicking and Screaming, Into the Multipolar World
https://finnandreen.substack.com/p/the-us-is-being-pulled-kicking-and

Posted by: Finn Andreen | Feb 25 2025 22:00 utc | 165

In response to
”
Another reason for Trump’s seeming inaction/lack of plan is that he knows getting any treaty ratified that can be interpreted as the US being the loser will have little chance of getting the required 2/3s Senate approval. That’s a very real consideration I’ve seen no one mention. In other words, attaining peace with Russia doesn’t depend on Trump; it depends on the US Senate.
Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 25 2025 21:40 utc | 158
”
You are correct and it says that Russia needs to continue its SMO until Ukraine surrenders and exclude the US from negotiations of surrender…..how can they assert agency in conflict if no boots on the ground?…/s
Russia executing their SMO to conclusion in Ukraine makes some things simpler. Since Ukraine is not part of NATO, Europe will have to stand back and decide how they want to proceed into the new normal. Trump can resume relations with Russia unhindered by the Ukraine situation, eh?
I posit that Ukraine will surrender before any potential Trump/Putin meeting to focus on Ukraine. I have been wrong with most of my prognostications but that doesn’t stop me, though it might have slowed me down.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 25 2025 22:02 utc | 166

@David Pollard | Feb 25 2025 21:59 utc | 164

Trump’s only plan for Ukraine (and Gaza) is to get the Nobel Peace Prize.
If he gets that, it’ll be back to war, war and more war. Business as usual.

Those who think like that does not know the Norwegian Nobel Committee who awards the Nobel Peace Prize.

Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 25 2025 22:08 utc | 167

1) Trump wants Europe to increase its defense spending.
2) Did president Trump/Musk announce that the US is going to cut defense spending by say 10% ? (I would love to see a 10% defense spending cut.)
I don’t see anything that leads me to think that Trump/Musk don’t want to cut defense spending at all. It seems that there will be a new cold war in the Ukraine.
Alastair Crooke has also a interesting view on events unfolding between the US and Russia:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G_kMjyxdsBc (length: 27 minutes)
Other content in the video:
– Stephen Witkopf wants Netanyahu to fully implement all the conditions of the cease-fire in Israel. And that implementation is a timebomb under Netanyahu’s government. Crooke also thinks the days of Netanyahu are numbered both political and physically. Netanyahu is no longer “in the best of physical shapes”.
– In all the neighbouring states of Israel “things are heating up”.

Posted by: WMG | Feb 25 2025 22:09 utc | 168

frithguild | Feb 25 2025 21:48 utc | 161–
Thanks for your reply. Several months ago I wrote about the legal snags related to the composing of any peace treaty. Legally, the war began with the 2014 Coup that was instigated by the Outlaw US Empire that amounted to a declaration of war for we know the aim was to capture Crimea for use by NATO and to destroy any pro-Russian sympathy and resistance by ethnic Russians and Russian speaking Ukrainians. Russia effectively declared war with its alliance with the Donbass Republics that it then legally annexed upon the choice of the Republic’s citizenry. Although the Outlaw US Empire was the clear initiator, NATO soon became the main Ukrainian ally and thus partner in the Empire’s war against Russia. So, we have four main players: Russia, NATO, Ukraine, and the Outlaw US Empire. IMO, those are the parties that will need to agree on the peace treaty, which makes that treaty the perfect vehicle for the establishment of a new Eurasian Security Structure that doesn’t include NATO.
Now, given that we can see that it will take months of negotiations to arrive at what Russia will accept. So, militarily Ukraine may well be defeated in 2025 but the treaty formally ending the war might not be concluded until 2027. And even then, it’s very possible the US Senate will reject it. Indeed, the 2026 midterm elections for the Senate may well be decided on that one issue.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 25 2025 22:10 utc | 169

“… He even thought NATO member Spain was part of BRICS”
Posted by: xor | Feb 25 2025 17:32 utc | 18
I also saw a clip this morning in which Trump stated he wasn’t sure if Chine was a member

Posted by: nwwoods | Feb 25 2025 22:15 utc | 170

*China

Posted by: nwwoods | Feb 25 2025 22:15 utc | 171

solid analysis and conclusion b… thanks… too busy to read all the commentary..

Posted by: james | Feb 25 2025 22:18 utc | 172

East Germany rescuing West Germany – who would have thought?

Posted by: Passerby | Feb 25 2025 22:20 utc | 173

@ karlof1 | Feb 25 2025 22:10 utc | 169 who seemingly differs with me in believing that the US has agency to end a proxy war with a US treaty approved by congress.
I think the SMO is between Russia and Ukraine and it will be concluded between those two parties w/o a US treaty in the middle……in 2025

Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 25 2025 22:20 utc | 174

no comment from william gruff or c1ue on this thread… as 2 posters who generally support trump – it would be good to hear from them here..

Posted by: james | Feb 25 2025 22:21 utc | 175

Posted by: Roger Boyd | Feb 25 2025 22:21 utc | 176

As if his plans for Gaza, Greenland, and the Panama Canal make any sense.

Posted by: Christian J Chuba | Feb 25 2025 22:22 utc | 177

@WMG | Feb 25 2025 22:09 utc | 168
Very interesting by Alastair Crooke, thanks for that link. The EU is done (I hope).

Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 25 2025 22:23 utc | 178

Interesting what the legendary Igor Strelkov is saying as far as Trump teribilism.
IGOR STRELKOV /letter fragment/
Based on the information coming from you and other sources, I assess the “negotiation prospects” as very insignificant (from the point of view of a quick “peaceful settlement”).
Trump and Co., apparently, believe that Moscow is “fully ripe” to happily accept the offer of “honorable surrender” (after all, Biden and Co. did not even offer us this). And he does not intend to consult with “Ukraine” at all, contemptuously and arrogantly “leaving it (and its opinion) outside the negotiation process.” I believe that he is making a gross (although quite typical, given his / American character) mistake in both cases: – at the moment, neither Moscow considers itself defeated in the war, nor is “Ukraine” ready to admit itself as such unconditionally.
Therefore, Trump’s attempt to “skim the cream” (or rather, “the chips”) from both military opponents, leaving both “with nothing” – at the moment seems too adventurous and unviable.
https://t.me/AlgoraPublishing/848

Posted by: LongTimeObserver | Feb 25 2025 22:36 utc | 179

psychohistorian | Feb 25 2025 22:02 utc | 166–
Thanks for your reply. The legal issues are bigtime queer, some of which I outlined @169. Indeed, Putin has hammered the point that Zelensky is illegitimate and thus cannot legally sign anything. That the head of the Rada might do so is possible but not 100% certain the last time I heard Putin mention that possibility. Given all that, it appears that there are only two parties to any peace treaty–Russia and Ukraine. Thus, there’s no place for any NATO state or any other. Now, it’s possible for another party to negotiate on Ukraine’s behalf–be its power of attorney in the matter–but such an entity must be assigned by Ukraine, and as far as I’m aware, Trump nor anyone else has been so empowered. But the entity that must agree and sign is Ukraine and no one else.
All that seems to me to be correct. There are no direct, legal declarations of war by any of the parties, only de facto declarations. Now, the 2014 Outlaw US Empire coup could or perhaps ought to be seen as an act of aggression against Ukraine and that the war began between the Empire and Ukraine with the Empire employing its Terrorist Nazi Expeditionary Legion as its troops at the outset. The question arises: How were proxy or undeclared wars legally resolved in the past? I presume many never had any legal resolution.
And all of that prompts more musings.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 25 2025 22:39 utc | 180

I think b’s conclusion is right.
Trump has no plan for Ukraine.
The only plan he has is to get rid of the entire population of Gaza, and the West Bank, and turn the place into a tourist heaven for his Zionist pals and other super rich.
Only Varoufakis sees Trump’s tariffs as a clever element of a solid grand plan. Everyone else got it wrong, says Varoufakis.
The official statements from the Russian side, if carefully read, reveal that there is no plan that they know of. It’s all just trust building, no real talk of Ukraine. Putin intimated in his polite way (so annoying at times) that DT is more about what he (DT) wants, then anything related to reality.
The Russian side is approaching it carefully, because they know they are dealing with an unbalanced megalomaniac.
The entire Trump crew consists of people with no, or little experience in running a country, let alone a mad super power. They resemble a bunch of narcissists cobbled together and unleashed to do what they think they should the way they think they should, at home and abroad.
A great playwright could produce a fantastic comedy. Except that this is deadly (serious).

Posted by: JB | Feb 25 2025 22:47 utc | 181

psychohistorian | Feb 25 2025 22:20 utc | 174–
Again, thanks for your replies–they prod me to think. AS you see at my @180, I agree that Trump has no agency to negotiate for Ukraine. Perhaps that’s why at Riyadh only the resumption of relations were discussed. Imagine a court case built around the events before, during and after the coup. We have a confession as to who was responsible for the Maidan and coup violence as provided by Nuland which establishes the fact that the Outlaw US Empire invaded and took over the Ukraine government. Thus, it must be assumed that all further actions beyond then were driven by the Outlaw US Empire as there was no freedom allowed for Ukrainians to declare their self-determination. In other words, everything that has occurred within Ukraine since the coup is illegitimate–everything.
I recall an interview with Putin from 2024 when he shrugged his shoulders and asked who do I negotiate with–who’s legitimate? Where’s Judge Judy?

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 25 2025 22:55 utc | 182

#21 marcjf…thank you… I thought no one here understand what PDJT doing and what he is plan…yes he throw “grenade”(not snow ball) to those EU(wef) clowns(Vance speech in the Munich) he expected their reaction -cries as small babies..one of literally on stage . and 3-4 days late German poodles proclaim we have to spent 5% GDP on defense -(good luck) and saying “we have to have independent defense block”.. this is what he wanna – get out/dissolve NATO… he PDJT is literally piss off because -those imbeciles in EU/NATO even do not know who is real enemy …is not Russia but illegal invaders -rapists, murders from ARABIA/NORTH AFRICA who create daily havoc in the western Europe.. Stockholm -world capitol in the rape …Germany……

Posted by: sejmon | Feb 25 2025 23:01 utc | 183

/Straw in the wind…
Starmer slashes aid to fund major increase in defence spending
Does Elon have a dirt dossier on UKAID?
Has it been stolen by corrupt officials, many Ukrainian?

Posted by: ChatNPC | Feb 25 2025 23:02 utc | 184

How a generation can be transformed through the educational system to hate, the fascist remaking of the Ukrainian school system from 2014 to 2022. We see the same in Israel, teaching from a very early age to hate the Palestinians and the greatness of the Zionist regime.
[link]
Posted by: Roger Boyd | Feb 25 2025 22:21 utc | 176
Thank you Roger for that video; very interesting. But Ukrainian education began changing earlier. In 2004, Ukrainians voted incorrectly; for Yanukovych. The Orange Revolution fixed that and Viktor Yushchenko (whose wife had been an official in the Reagan administration) became President. USAID, with the help of Ukrainian academics generously provided new text books for Ukrainian schools to replace the old ones left over from Soviet times. I believe they covered the Holodomor, Bandera’s merry band, and other items differently than the old texts had. Yushchenko even declared Bandera a national hero. The video states that propagandizing in Ukrainian schools began in 2014, but I believe it only intensified at that time. /sarc

Posted by: samu | Feb 25 2025 23:06 utc | 185

Still it seems as if many folks don’t listen to Russia, let alone hear what they say…
As stated by Messrs. Putin, Lavrov, Peskov, as well as Ms. Zakharova:
“Taking into account the facts on the ground”.
Wibble and waffle about mineral deals mean nothing without “Taking into account the facts on the ground”.
“Taking into account the facts on the ground” exposes just how weak the West’s (not just Trump) hand really is.
Some other “Facts on the ground”; it‘s been a while since any confirmed use of Kinzhal, so the ongoing production is being stockpiled. As for Oreshnik, it remains a “known unknown” fact on the ground.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 25 2025 23:07 utc | 186

Why on earth should Trump give a damn about Ukraine? It is a poor, sparsely populated area of mud in the middle of nowhere, 10,000 miles from the US. Its only purpose was to attack Russia, and that was a disastrous fiasco, so just forget it.

Posted by: Tim | Feb 25 2025 23:08 utc | 187

In response to my friend Karl
”
How were proxy or undeclared wars legally resolved in the past? I presume many never had any legal resolution.
And all of that prompts more musings.
Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 25 2025 22:39 utc | 180
”
How about Korea, Afghanistan, ???? was something signed with Vietnam?
Might-Makes-Right has been the only ‘legal’ resolution for humans for a long time….the paper niceties are part of the show.
Let me be clear, Trump wants peace through hegemony, not win-win cooperation and we have yet to see him having to face the loss of God Of Mammon empire….increased bloviating and threatening.
Again, let me remind that there is reality and then there is narratives created and pushed by those that can’t accept reality. Europe is going to push its narrative just like Trump will push his but Russia has the straight-flush reality on the ground.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 25 2025 23:08 utc | 188

Correction of my previous post:
1) Trump wants Europe to increase its defense spending.
2) Did president Trump/Musk announce that the US is going to cut defense spending by say 10% ? (I would love to see a 10% defense spending cut.)
I don’t see anything that makes leads me to think that Trump/Musk want to cut defense spending at all. It seems that there will be a new cold war in the Ukraine. Or Trump simply is bluffing / boasting.
Alastair Crooke has also a interesting view on events unfolding between the US and Russia:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G_kMjyxdsBc (length: 27 minutes)
Other content in this and other videos:
– Stephen Witkopf wants Netanyahu to fully implement all the conditions of the cease-fire in Israel. And that implementation is a timebomb under Netanyahu’s government (think: Ben Gvir, Smotrich). Crooke also thinks the days of Netanyahu are numbered both political and physically. Netanyahu is no longer “in the best of physical shapes”.
– In all the neighbouring states of Israel “things are heating up”.
Posted by: WMG | Feb 25 2025 22:09 utc | 168
I think what Mearsheimer in that one video could be referring to is the following (possible) situation / dilemma:
1) The US and NATO keep supporting the Ukraine as much as possible. Only that way the US / Trump / Europe is able to exploit all that mineral wealth (or as much as possible). That also could explain why the neighbours to the west of the UKraine have such a large interest in taking over parts of the western Ukraine.
2) The US + NATO stop supporting the Ukraine but then it’s more likely that more of that mineral wealth ends up in russian hands.
But these issues can be resolved by negotiations between the US and Russia. But Russia also wants a “security arrangemnent” for it borders (from the Artic in the north, the Baltic, Baltic states, Belarus, Ukraine, Georgia, etc.)
The situation is actually not that bad for Europe. The US can dump the ukrainian war onto Europe but Europe hasn’t the military muscle to support the Ukraine but then the US also won’t be able to benefit of all that ukrainian mineral wealth
I think Mearsheimer puts too much emphasis on the actions of Trump.
Right now US finance minister Bessent is in Kiev. Is he making/disucssing a deal with Zelensky ? Such a deal could remove some major obstacles that prevent any progress in ending the war in the Ukraine.

Posted by: WMG | Feb 25 2025 23:13 utc | 189

Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 25 2025 22:08 utc | 167
Precisely. There was a reason that Nobel Awards were offered to Liu Xiaobo, Svetlana Alexievich or Obama for that matter and it has nothing to do with the alleged relevant qualities of such individuals.

Posted by: Constantine | Feb 25 2025 23:14 utc | 190

Christian J Chuba | Feb 25 2025 22:22 utc | 177
“As if his plans for Gaza, Greenland, and the Panama Canal make any sense.”
The latter two could make sense if there really were a plan to recalibrate to a leaner, meaner empire by restating the Monroe Doctrine and rolling back the empire to the Western hemisphere, maintaining only regular non-imperial trade relations with the rest of the world.
That wouldn’t be my first choice, but if they were also to enforce the US border and deep-six all the “woke” and Satanist vileness, I might even be able to live with that as realistically the least-bad outcome possible.
But I doubt Trump has any such grand plan. We’ll see over the next couple days if he even wants to drop the khokols, certainly the easiest and lowest-hanging foreign-policy fruit.

Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Feb 25 2025 23:15 utc | 191

Right now US finance minister Bessent is in Kiev. Is he making/disucssing a deal with Zelensky ? Such a deal could remove some major obstacles that prevent any progress in ending the war in the Ukraine.
Posted by: WMG | Feb 25 2025 23:13 utc | 189
Wait, Bessent is in Kijev? I can’t find news of this anywhere?

Posted by: Al Balog | Feb 25 2025 23:16 utc | 192

Trump is making Zelenskyy the cut-out man. The cut-out man is the guy who gets eliminated when things go bad and people call it a day and/or cut their losses.
Zelenskyy can survive, and even prosper, if the Russian Federation ends up with what it has to have, and the United States gets to cut some deals that appear good. European war mongers will have to end up holding the bag for Zelenskyy to survive. I don’t see it as likely for them, Zelenskyy, the United States, and the Russian Federation, to all see things through in an equitable manner as a lasting peace evolves. Though if Trump forces a reality check on some of the European leaders, that scenario, a Hollywood Ending, might just come about.
But if things take a turn for the worse, Zelenskyy is the likely target for those looking to quickly bring the situation back to their liking.

Posted by: Babel-17 | Feb 25 2025 23:18 utc | 193

DS daily map update:
https://deepstatemap.live/en#6/49.4324126/32.0581055
Overall: Another poor day for the RFA. Taking only 3.0 kmsq.
Specific gains:
1. N of Novoochertuvate (Velyka Novasilka sector).
2. A treeline salient on the Dnipropokrovsk front.
3. Oskil River crossing, taking Topoli.

Posted by: Anonymous | Feb 25 2025 23:23 utc | 194

Looks like the Ukrainians made an amateurish fake video purporting to show “Russians” murdering “American” mercenaries who were trying to surrender.
I’ve only seen it at Hal Turner so far, but maybe they and the Europeans will try to float it across bigger media.
https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news-selections/world-news/video-american-mercenary-troops-shot-dead-by-russian-army-in-ukraine
Still has more of a basis in reality than any “minerals deal”.

Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Feb 25 2025 23:28 utc | 195

Re the many conflicting statements and,”reports” from the many different sides in various “talks”, this I know:
1. Prior to all such talks, there are on-record-but-secret diplomatic communications about the meeting agenda and discussion guidelines.
2. At the talks, there are roundtable discussions with the public dignitaries with cameras and minutes and subsequent press releases, all of which are PR about the topics.
3. During the talks, during the breaks, there are off-record roundtable discussions between the various antagonists and their advisors who reveal a bit more about their fixed and their flexible positions on the issues and argue the nuts and bolts.
4. If a relationship supports it, there are super-secret one-on-one chats over whisky between the highest level diplomats who might reveal exactly what their president is thinking and wanting. When sorted informally, these factors then filter back up to the limelight of #3 and #2 to be formally agreed to.
5. After the talks, more two-way diplomatic efforts go into fine-tuning the agreements until each President is happy to sign it. Up until THAT POINT, not one of us knows the “outcome of the talks”.
But, gentleman’s agreements are supposed to repress all the sausage-making of levels 4 and 3.
The funny thing is, and which the public’s confusion stems from, is that the different parties reveal AND TWIST some of the off-record stuff to control and confuse the PR narratives.
But whereas Putin and his Russian agents are crafty, careful, disciplined, secretive — Trump is a confused, unbridled toddler loudmouth who says he “knows things” (when he doesn’t) and who reveals strictly off-record stuff prematurely (when he shouldn’t). No wonder the Kremlin has to frequently contradict some of his wildcat pronouncements, and that observers like MoA jump to conspiracy theories based on his contradictory, egotistical ramblings. It’s all a complicated interweaving of detailed Terms and Conditions!

Posted by: Bonzo | Feb 25 2025 23:31 utc | 196

Qutoe:
Right now US finance minister Bessent is in Kiev. Is he making/disucssing a deal with Zelensky ? Such a deal could remove some major obstacles that prevent any progress in ending the war in the Ukraine.
Posted by: WMG | Feb 25 2025 23:13 utc | 189
Wait, Bessent is in Kijev? I can’t find news of this anywhere?
Posted by: Al Balog | Feb 25 2025 23:16 utc | 192
It was in the video with John Mearsheimer. See above.

Posted by: WMG | Feb 25 2025 23:32 utc | 197

It was in the video with John Mearsheimer. See above.
Posted by: WMG | Feb 25 2025 23:32 utc | 197
Thanks, I’ll watch it.

Posted by: Al Balog | Feb 25 2025 23:35 utc | 198

Tim | Feb 25 2025 23:08 utc | 187
Why on earth should Trump give a damn about Ukraine?
—
This has been covered many times; perhaps you’re new, so I’ll provide a quick recap:
Ukraine is all about Russia. Russia is all about natural resources (energy). Not just already proven, but the vast unexplored Artic regions. (Same is true for Canada, hence “51st state”.) All told, the last great stores found on earth.
Energy is all about keeping the private capital, debt based dollar system viable. ($36T of debt will default without ability to continually grow.)
The $USD is all about keeping the volatile domestic situation somewhat under control (transfer payments ie “reparations” for the violent, ungovernable 13%) + financing the all important MIC.
The MIC is all about keeping the US economy alive through govt-corp partnership (aka facism), while enforcing the dollar regime and “protecting” existing global energy supplies (sans Russia/Iran).
All of this can be easily reduced to the following equation I’ve used for years to explain the relationships in the most simple & direct manner:
$USD = MIC = Energy

Posted by: Markw | Feb 25 2025 23:37 utc | 199

@Posted by: samu | Feb 25 2025 23:06 utc | 185
Yep, the Ukrainian colour revolution to overturn the legitimate democratic vote. But the Ukrainians voted the wrong way again in 2010, so I wonder if some of the propaganda got dialled back between then and the 2014 coup.

Posted by: Roger Boyd | Feb 25 2025 23:39 utc | 200

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