Does Trump Really Have A Plan For Ukraine?
The weird thing about President Trump's plans for Ukraine is that no knows what they actually are.
Over the last days I have tried to understand what he is trying to achieve. I fail to come up with a theory that makes sense. His behavior is inconsistent. There are also no helpful hints from the White House or leaks to the press. There is frenetic action here and there and pompous pronouncements. But what are the overall plans?
Prof. Mearsheimer likewise says (vid) that Trump's behavior makes no sense. Blackmailing Ukraine into a resource extraction deal is not a realist position. It is not even mercantilistic. There is nothing to sell there and any deal will be scuppered by courts under oligarch pressure. It makes no sense.
So what is the evidence that Trump has a plan? What is the evidence that he is really negotiating with Russia? What is he factually doing to shut down the war as he has claimed he would do?
Yves Smith, quoting contrarian opinions of Brian Berletic and John Helmer, is likewise wondering what Trump is about:
Because the Trump Administration has no clear idea of what it wants in terms of a Ukraine end game, save being able to claim that Trump ended the war and is therefore a great deal-maker, it is at serious risk of falling into the behavior Sun Tsu warned about: “All tactics and no strategy is the noise before the defeat.”Specifically, we’ll discuss how oddly under-amplified assessments by Brian Berletic and John Helmer, show that the idea, popular in the independent media, that Trump represents a great foreign policy break from the past is exaggerated. His difference in methods are being unduly confused with differences in aims.
But we’ll first address the way a new Administration pet fixation, that of wresting a minerals/other economic rights deal from Ukraine, is contrary to the aim of reaching an agreement with Russia.
...
Now this Ukraine minerals deal may be an example of Trump habits operating to his detriment. Consider how the Trump approach of maximizing his possible negotiating space by advancing all sorts of frame-breaking ideas is not such a hot idea when done reflexively, as seems to be the case in Trump 2.0, as opposed to deliberately.Trump himself regularly threatens radically extreme actions, like ethnic cleansing in Gaza, and browbeats heads of state to try to get his way. Not only is Trump not getting his Riviera development there, but his bullying makes him look like a petulant jerkface. Why should anyone want to get in any relationship with a partner who relishes not just crass dominance displays but even humiliating heads of state (witness King Abdullah of Jordan) and is indifferent to destabilizing the entire region? These actions are inimical to building trust and dealing with anything other than subservient parties.
...
Or perhaps Trump and his operatives still believe that Russia is having trouble sustaining its war effort, and so shoring up US credibility and commitment will lead Russia to make concessions.
Neither approach one might think Trump is taking - to use a Ukraine resource deal to keep the U.S. in Ukraine and the war going, or to use the Ukraine resource deal to finally break with Ukraine - is consistent with a realistic assessment of the facts on the ground. At least not if the aim of the game is to make peace.
Trump is may be just rearranging the chairs before continuing with the same old imperial program:
Brian Berletic contends that most independent commentators have fallen for the MAGA/America First hype when Trump represents strategic continuity for the US by trying to maintain dominance, particularly vis-a-vis China. In particular, Berletic described, based on watching the full confirmation hearings for Trump defense and intelligence picks, that the US was not getting rid of the USAID regime change/messaging apparatus, merely shuttering its DEI and other MAGA-disapproved elements.
...
Needless to say, this assessment, based on what the Trump Administration has said it intends to do with USAID operations, is very much at odds with the conventional, complacent view that Trump has gotten the US out of the regime change business. Why pray tell, would it have been in the US’ strategic interest to do so? It’s not as if we could win any concessions for eliminating that apparatus.
Yves Smith's take on John Helmer's analysis:
Helmer based on his own experience in the Carter Administration as well as input from Russian sources confirming what could be inferred from the remarks of various participants [of the talks in Riyadh] was that the session, from the Russian vantage, was a train wreck. Even if you didn’t have the benefit of the reports afterwards, the way the US went about it was nuts. The US side demanded an immediate high level session, when those typically do not happen before adequate ground work has been undertaken. On top of that, the key members of the Trump foreign policy team had only just been installed. And with DOGE running a bulldozer through State, it’s not as if Rubio and his colleagues had any expertise (such as from career staffers who’d been there before Team Biden came in) to draw on.
...
He reprised some of its findings, and added new observations, in a talk with Nima of Dialogue Works.
From the very top:Helmer: The Russian perception is that the American side is a kasha, is a porridge, is a mess. But it’s necessary not to be impolite and say so…..First, what should the Russian side do next?This problem is actually serious. The US called for a high-level meeting and had no idea what to do then, no agenda, no asks, no proposals. The point seemed to be to create a perception of momentum and pretend that Trump was making serious progress on ending the war. Helmers points to the almost desperation of the US side in saying the fact of this meeting proved that Trump was the only man who could end the war … in lieu of having anything else to say.
The conclusion for me is that there is no Trump plan at all to make peace in Ukraine.
The conflict - in consequence - will have to be decided on the battlefield.
Posted by b on February 25, 2025 at 16:57 UTC | Permalink
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Posted by: Exile | Feb 25 2025 17:03 utc | 2
Plan!? There's no plan. Its just "I am an elected God, do as a say."
Posted by: azeclecticdog | Feb 25 2025 17:03 utc | 3
He does not even need to. The difficult thing is not to stop the war but to keep it running.
Posted by: xblob | Feb 25 2025 17:05 utc | 4
Trumps needs to cut Federal Spending by 30% within 12-18 months. This drives all his decisions. Highest priority.
Abandoning Kiev saves ~$100 billion a year.
Posted by: Exile | Feb 25 2025 17:08 utc | 5
I, too, am confused. There is news of the "seismic" vote at the UN regarding the Russia and the SMO. Then I read about the US long range bomber with escorts tooling around in the Baltics.
It is amusing to see thing fall apart. But it could very quickly cease being funny.
Changes are happening I never thought I would see in the USA. I hope they just follow the money with all the corruption in the various agencies and the ghouls that roam the halls of power. It shouldn't be too difficult with Ukraine because they bragged about it publicly and spread the message widely.
Posted by: lex talionis | Feb 25 2025 17:11 utc | 6
@Exile | Feb 25 2025 17:08 utc | 5
Regarding amerikkkan treasuries, its 10-yr yield drops to about 0.20% in 3 days. I seem unable to see what might cause it. You often commented on amerikkkan treasuries, I wonder if you have any insight about the possible cause(s)? Also, would you mind elaborating about your comment "Trumps needs to cut Federal Spending by 30% within 12-18 months." when you have a chance?
Thanks a lot.
Posted by: LuRenJia | Feb 25 2025 17:15 utc | 7
Does Trump have a plan is much less important than whether he has the means to execute a particular plan.
Have we reached the point yet where Trump owns this war? He was a willing participant in his first term.
As Martyanov says (cleverly IMO), "tactics are for amateurs, logistics are for professionals".
What are the logistical realities of any of these situations?
Iran, Russia, China, BRICS.
If America was in a regulation NBA game and down 50 points at half-time, we wouldn't be talking about how they can juggle the lineup to stage a comeback, we would be talking about resting the superstars for the next game.
Does Trump have a plan?
More importantly, does it matter?
The Axis continues to hold all of the cards. Russia and China have been trying to stage an orderly replacement of the hegemony with minimal death and destruction.
I've watched these extended seasons of The Apprentice and understand that Trump + American media dominance = entertainment, not results. As I said recently, firing a bunch of queer crooks isn't a revolution. It's partisan red meat for the base. 2 minute hate as the world is dumping US debt holdings.
Dancing music in the ballroom of the Titanic after the fateful collision.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 25 2025 17:15 utc | 8
The plan is to give Putin what he wants. It's not rocket science.
Posted by: Mike Adamson | Feb 25 2025 17:17 utc | 9
B, the real issue for Trump right now isn't Ukraine, Russia or even really China. Rather, it's emerging victorious in the (so far) cold civil war.
If you lived here, you'd be subject to the 24/7 attack acussing Trump of being a Putin stooge, a Russian spy, betraying our allies, destroying liberty and so on.
In this environment he cannot just simply "end the war" favorable to Russia. Rather, he has to create enough confusion to provide a smoke screen of deniability while allowing Russia to end it on the ground.
The fallout is going to be magnitudes greater than Saigon or Afganistán, so it's important not to be effectively tarred by the deep state.
Posted by: Markw | Feb 25 2025 17:19 utc | 10
The other half to that question is what is Putin's political plan and does it align with the military's plan?
And also, what exactly was agreed in Saudi Arabia?
What a time to be alive!!!
Posted by: Skeletor | Feb 25 2025 17:20 utc | 11
As the minerals are mainly in the Eastern Ukraine,the demand could be understood as one to Putin and not Zelensky, that "we will sell you the Ukraine for 300 billion in rare earth minerals." Efffectively, it would be a pirate's demand for ransom for what was part of Russia up until 1991.
Posted by: nazcalito | Feb 25 2025 17:21 utc | 12
What are Trump's options?
1. Escalate
2. Continue
3. Negotiate
4. Get out
1. Escalate - An all out war with Russia may go nuclear. Win or lose. China wins by sitting it out. Likewise a war with China, Russia wins by sitting it out. All out war against both China and Russia is unthinkable. Both too powerful. All but deluded Washington hawks undertand that, even before China showed off 6th generation fighters in Decemeber.
2. Continue - the current attrition war suggests, Russia will eventually win. The Ukraine defeat will fall on Trump.
Trump doesn't want to carry the label of losing the Ukraine war. So the option is to negotiate an end or abandon Ukraine and blame the failure on Biden administration.
Options 3 and 4 are on the table after eliminating 1 and 2. Trump just wants to see what's best available option out of 3 and 4 while fighting the deep state.
I think Brian Berletic is wrong. Yes, the deep state still wants the war. But Trump doesn't, not out of goodness, but out of selfish reasons.
Posted by: FieryButMostPeaceful | Feb 25 2025 17:21 utc | 13
Perhaps all the hooting and hollering is because it is slowly dawning on the Trump administration quite how weak their hand actually is, though much of this results from the corrupt Biden regime’s shambolic approach and lack of clear long-term thinking.
The minerals question is just mining a rich seam of the ore “red herringium”, all it has done is raise questions about the positioning of the trans-national corporations and their vested interests in the conflict.
Is President Trump even aware of Russia’s December 2021 draft security documents? At the moment it seems as if he’s not aware of these, so far, at any rate, he shows no signs of actually having read them.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 25 2025 17:25 utc | 14
Trump first in his term was amazed, pleased and congratulatory with himself for having signed a 6.3 trillion dollar check to big Pharma and other key players.
Bigger than any check you've ever seen.
Arguably, this lead to inflation then and it continued and it continues. With our fake money backed by force.
That Trump is "all over the map" and inconsistent and blurts out stupid non sequiturs is consistent, not with multi-dimensional chess, but it is consistent with Trump being a clueless moron. Lead by others. Unable to recite the script accurately. Not unlike Biden.
It may be notable that Producers, directors and others experienced great difficulty in getting Trump to recite his lines correctly.
In some cases, the Producers of "You're Fired" had to revise the plot because Trump had, by ad lib or misunderstanding (or both) fired the Selected protagonist.
Posted by: Chaka Khagan | Feb 25 2025 17:29 utc | 15
When they invade Syria he made a deal w/Putin to give him time to take Odessa
Posted by: marc | Feb 25 2025 17:29 utc | 16
If by having no plan you just mean "going through the motions" and plain dropping ukraine and asking RF to finish them off (and warning europe not to buy a war they can't win) ... then maybe he doesn't.
But I'm fine with it, he can then say he stopped the war (for the us) and Z made a "huuuuge mistake" by not taking his peace efforts and excellent deal.
Now the ball is in europe's corner. The UN security council decision to abstain might mean they'll fold, or they might go full retard and all bets are off.
RF is seriously offering more than ukraine can pay, so trump will get pissed off by z any moment now.
What's the angle? Screw biden team seems certain, screw the EU likely, screw the uk? Big question can he get starmer without really hurting good old uk?
Let's give it to the man, nobody seems to know what he's thinking, and the most scary part is that maybe he doesn't either.
Posted by: Newbie | Feb 25 2025 17:29 utc | 17
First of all, Trump might be a good business man but it certainly doesn't mean he's a genius. He even thought NATO member Spain was part of BRICS.
So the (stupid) plan might be dumping the Ukraine disaster on the EU, make sure they as the heir carry the full burden, try to entice the Russians to sink their strategic relationships with Iran and China (never gonna happen) and take aim at China. Either way, I'm enjoying the show while it lasts.
Posted by: xor | Feb 25 2025 17:32 utc | 18
It's pure folly to think trump has any plans other than to keep everyone paying attention to him. Putin/Xi play 3d chess, biden's lackeys barely played checkers but trump's clown show cannot even spell the word. US looks like an asylum to the ROW with the lowest looneys in charge.
The biggest irony is trump's job was stolen by an immigrant.
Posted by: motorslug | Feb 25 2025 17:35 utc | 19
To plagiarize Heath Ledger, "Does Trump look like a guy with a plan?"
That said, the real plan might be to put pressure on both Europe and Ukraine so that there'll be cracks, Trump can basically drop Ukraine and leave it be on its own - so basically new elections then deal with Russia or collapse -, and make sure EU freaks out and buys way more useless US military gimmicks. He might be genuine when considering the deaths as a waste (that'd be the businessman talking, all these consumers and workers lost for no good), but I don't think he cares much about how it ends, and how badly it ends for Ukraine. I think he wants to pull out, and if the war goes on after that, it's not a war the US would be tied to in any way, so it's just as if the war was actually over from an American point of view.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 25 2025 17:15 utc | 8
"As Martyanov says (cleverly IMO), "tactics are for amateurs, logistics are for professionals"."
Indeed. What's funny is that Martyanov is basically quoting Bradley, Patton's colleague. He was well-placed to see the huge logistical advantage the US had and how Marshall and Eisenhower used it.
Posted by: Clueless Joe | Feb 25 2025 17:36 utc | 20
I think trump has a plan, but it is not obvious to people who think the world works in a rational way and people behave.
He is throwing snowballs in the air, confusing everyone, and outraging everyone, making impossible and probably contradictory demands.
Why?
So he can claim that no one wants a "just peace" on "America's terms" and wash his hands of "Biden's fubar", claim his team "did their best" - and just walk away. He is also blaming Z who looks like he will carry the can for the failure of the war. So sad.....
This will be in the US news cycle for maybe 2 weeks. Then he can get get Musk or ANO to outrage the Dem base by something or other. The news cycle will change. The Rep base want out of Ukraine. Not the grandees of the GOP, but he has them on the run at the moment.
Strike while the iron is hot. Kick the table over and see where the chips land. But the USA is walking.
Anyway, that is what I think. Trump is no dullard and people who underestimate him and his methods tend to come off worst. It is not 5d chess, just disruption on a scale most people can't deal with.
Posted by: marcjf | Feb 25 2025 17:39 utc | 21
@ xor #18
Wrong, a good business man does not file for bankruptcy a dozen times. Not one of his 'ventures' ever made it past 10 years before blowing up. He did however manage to keep his money so he loves to sucker fools, but that is not a 'good' business model. That is a grifter.
Posted by: motorslug | Feb 25 2025 17:41 utc | 22
I think the plan is "negotiate a way out" but with no concrete way to fill it in and a very high chance of failure. But it's not about giving the appearance to negotiate.
It could be about giving the appearance to Ukraine that the US will help them out for a price, so that dumping them is easier.
The bigger question is, is it calming down one front(at the expense of Ukraine and EU)to double down on the China front or does Trump want to calm down the China front as well. And is there any chance that will happen. They're all china hawks.
Posted by: Tuyzentfloot | Feb 25 2025 17:48 utc | 23
MarkW at 10: "the real issue for Trump right now isn't Ukraine, Russia or even really China. Rather, it's emerging victorious in the (so far) cold civil war."
Absolutely spot on! Foreigners reading US anti-Trump media (which is most of it) miss where the real action is.
Clearly, as a human being, Trump would like to end the senseless slaughter in the Ukraine. As President, however, the Ukraine just is not much of a priority. Cutting spending on Europe/NATO and re-establishing normal relations with Russia rank much higher.
Foreigners may also misunderstand how little the Ukraine means to most Americans -- just the same as Afghanistan, where "Joe Biden" suffered no political cost for walking away. If the Euros and Zelensky give President Trump a good-enough excuse, the US is out of there!
Russia's real issue is with Europe/EU. President Putin's ideal would be to have those countries stop being aggressive and stop treating Russia like an enemy. It is difficult to see how Russia can achieve that political end -- and the near-certain military victory over the Ukraine (or even over Ukraine+EU) will likely not yield that outcome.
Posted by: Gavin Longmuir | Feb 25 2025 17:52 utc | 24
The bigger question is, is it calming down one front(at the expense of Ukraine and EU)to double down on the China front or does Trump want to calm down the China front as well. And is there any chance that will happen. They're all china hawks.
Posted by: Tuyzentfloot | Feb 25 2025 17:48 utc | 23
Not all, some have, or belong to people with, very strong china interests.
Posted by: Newbie | Feb 25 2025 17:53 utc | 25
"The conclusion for me is that there is no Trump plan at all to make peace in Ukraine.
The conflict - in consequence - will have to be decided on the battlefield." b
+1
Posted by: Don Firineach | Feb 25 2025 17:53 utc | 26
The conclusion for me is that there is no Trump plan at all to make peace in Ukraine.
The conflict - in consequence - will have to be decided on the battlefield.
The latter is the plan.
.
Please think it through and it will become clear,
IT WILL BE DECIDED ON THE BATTLEFIELD
And it would ONLY have advantages for Trump and Putin as far as political goals are concerned!
Both would emerge as winners, BOTH would achieve their set goals, BOTH WOULD SAVE FACE!
Europe would be destroyed as a result (also a goal of BOTH!!)
Posted by: berthold | Feb 25 2025 17:54 utc | 28
It's about leaving Ukraine with an excuse. The so called mineral deal looks good to the public and not so great to the Russians. Trump is a negotiator and this is part of the game. Everyone will pretend so he looks good and the U.S. will do what makes the most sense. Remove itself from a losing game. The NATO/Ukraine was a nutty idea from the beginning because the Russians have made clear for decades it would lead to a war that they wouldn't quit. You don't fight that sort of war with a country with nukes.
Posted by: Mike | Feb 25 2025 17:54 utc | 29
If you lived here, you'd be subject to the 24/7 attack acussing Trump of being a Putin stooge, a Russian spy, betraying our allies, destroying liberty and so on.
Posted by: Markw | Feb 25 2025 17:19 utc | 10
##############
That's the paradox.
Trump is hyper-competent and brave and he has been building a revolutionary plan.
Simultaneously, Trump cannot say and do certain things.
He's brilliant and powerful, except when he doesn't have permission from his Daddies in the Deep State. LOL
Not unlike the "Trump as Peacemaker" paradox where he was sending Javelins to the Azov terrorists and placing the biggest sanctions "ever" on Russia at that time.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 25 2025 17:55 utc | 30
Well he's saying the right things, Zelinsky is offering to relinquish his position, Europe's idiot leadership is freaking out, Dem war monsters are freaking out, etc.
All good signs, but again with Trump words don't indicate much. He probably has no plan other than engage with Russia and see what it will take to end the war in a way that looks like a victory.
For their part, Moscow has made it clear that it's going to take it's time and ensure that a real thaw occurs and some trust can be built up.
Perhaps, Trump is just winging it until Russia is ready to deal?
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Feb 25 2025 17:58 utc | 31
US plan is not so complicated.
Non negotiable parts :
- the US ditch the Kokholistan.
- negotiate a "security framework" with the RF.
- make NATO EU again and pull out of it.
- take some/all of what's money/value is left in 404.
- lift the sanctions.
Negotiable parts :
- "korean solution" and abandon the crappy stick to the EU (remember : EU is the new NATO).
- "Finland solution" with a rump 404 and no EU.
- In both cases : Karkov, Sumy , Mikolaiev are negotiable. Kiev and Odessa are big no-no.
There are also some untold parts ... (Dollar, Swift , China , BRICS , Pipelines)
The most important thing ; UE, UK and 404 must be kept out : US is making a separate peace.
Posted by: Savonarole | Feb 25 2025 17:59 utc | 32
"Neither approach one might think Trump is taking - to use a Ukraine resource deal to keep the U.S. in Ukraine and the war going, or to use the Ukraine resource deal to finally break with Ukraine - is consistent with a realistic assessment of the facts on the ground....
The US side demanded an immediate high level session, when those typically do not happen before adequate ground work has been undertaken. On top of that, the key members of the Trump foreign policy team had only just been installed. And with DOGE running a bulldozer through State, it’s not as if Rubio and his colleagues had any expertise (such as from career staffers who’d been there before Team Biden came in) to draw on."
None of that would be a problem if Trump and his people were clear in their own minds that they wanted to drop the Ukraine and walk away, which is the least bad thing they could do. It would only matter if Trump remains very confused and still keeps flipping wildly between thinking of walking away and still thinking of the US as being in the decisive power position here.
For example, according to this, Trump came out of his meeting with Macron spewing Minsk III nonsense, with Euro-"peacekeepers" and all:
"The ever-changing Trump: latest new position on Ukraine security guarantees can only lead to failure of his peace initiative...
Judging from what I heard in the televised press conference of Emmanuel Macron and Donald Trump in Washington earlier today, the road to peace just got that much longer and more problematic due to Trump’s seeming acceptance of the latest French suggestions about a European peace-keeping force to be deployed in Ukraine with unspecified back-up from the Americans."
Meanwhile:
"The conflict will have to be decided on the battlefield."
There was never for a moment the slightest alternative to that. If Russia wants to conclude this war successfully, attaining its necessary war goals, it will have to impose all of this through force on the ground. The one and only relevant action of any other player is for the Ukraine to unconditionally surrender or to collapse completely. Any other idea would be pure delusion or worse.
Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Feb 25 2025 17:59 utc | 33
"He is throwing snowballs in the air, confusing everyone, and outraging everyone, making impossible and probably contradictory demands."
This must be the Modern Theory of the Time-tested strategy of throwing a lot of shit at the wall and seeing how much sticks.
Yet, admit it is entertaining to watch intellectual Midget Trudeau, desperately trying to be relevant and backdoor into the throne position, alongside various Europe drones, doing their slapstick "My Democracy" routine.
Crying over their dead baby. Sorry, Mom, the kid is dead. We had to pull it out of the crack of your lazy butt. Yet... the kid is still dead.
For Trump, his domestic agenda is a priority over the noise in Europe because the enemies of Trump have yet to have all of the grubby heads spiked onto a post onto the road to nowhere.
Posted by: kupkee | Feb 25 2025 17:59 utc | 34
Posted by: xor | Feb 25 2025 17:32 utc | 18
###########
My favorite recent ones are when he didn't know whether China was in BRICS or that the German elections were happening.
Supposedly he told everyone 100% tariffs on BRICS nations, which he claims shattered the entire project.
I don't think he has dementia but he increasingly says incorrect things. Things that matter.
Maybe it is for the average MAGA person who doesn't know where Ukraine is on a map.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 25 2025 18:01 utc | 35
In the meantime, in Bulgaria
https://balkaninsight.com/2025/02/21/bulgaria-parliament-votes-against-military-deployment-in-ukraine/
Bulgaria’s parliament adopted a draft declaration on Friday, banning deployment of military forces in Ukraine – a move dubbed “meaningless” and “populist” by some local media.
The vote lacks authority but reflects concerns voiced by pro-Russian voices in the country. In the vote, 166 MPs supported the proposal while 27 voted against and 11 abstained.
Boyko Borissov, leader of the ruling GERB party, on Friday said that “the US remains a strategic partner and the European Union, our family”.
Referencing recent moves by US President Donald Trump to end the war in Ukraine, he said: “I support Donald Trump’s initiative to stop this extermination of peaceful citizens.
“We hope that as Bulgarians we’ll look after our own national interest,” Borissov added.
The pro-Russian party Revival voted against the draft – but only because it wanted the document to be worded more radically.
Posted by: Piotr Berman | Feb 25 2025 18:05 utc | 36
berthold @ 28 "IT WILL BE DECIDED ON THE BATTLEFIELD"
Yes and no. Yes, Russia will continue until the Ukraine cries uncle and ends that round of conflict. But that Russian victory does not solve the real problem for Russia -- which is the continued high level of aggression from the Euros.
Suppose Russia takes over the Ukraine completely (which is not something it apparently wants to do). Then Russia would have aggressive EU/NATO directly on its borders:
avoiding that situation was a part of what triggered the conflict in the first place.
The problem for Russia is the Europeans. It looks like President Trump is also beginning to see the Euros as the root of the Ukraine problem. Easiest course of action is for the US to walk away and leave Russia & the Euros to work it out.
Posted by: Gavin Longmuir | Feb 25 2025 18:05 utc | 37
One can set up sub corporations/entities that can be bankrupted without affecting the parent corporate entity. This was a method wherein Trump would default and remain whole. The process can be repeated, which he did. It's like fraud made legal.
Insurance companies do it. Where Slate Firm, the parent company will do business in Florida via a sub entity called Slate Firm of Florida. It charges premiums and offers insurance protection for only Florida collecting premiums in Florida. Once its settlements begin,funds are exhausted, the situation ends with the bankruptcy of the smaller subsidiary.
The big company's billions are protected because they are not officially a part of the smaller subset.
Roy Cohn was Trump's best friend.
Posted by: Chaka Khagan | Feb 25 2025 18:05 utc | 38
As previously stated, Mr. Donald John Trump -- a reality TV personality -- is trapped between the Russian Federation and the People's Republic of China. He has no plan because he can't produce one without a total surrender. Sir Keir Starmer will change his mind this week and his perception regarding the future of Ukraine as a state. Foreign policy chief Ms. Kaja Kallas stated on Monday that “there is no need to hold elections” in Ukraine. After its first rejection, 280 lawmakers in the parliament in Kiev voted on a declaration of support for Mr. Volodymyr Oleksandrovych Zelenskyy -- former comedian -- to continue ruling for as long as it takes. This is dangerous but that's the European plan that seems to be working [in addition to the re-arming of the new NATO Ukraine all the way]. The Russian Federation is watching these events unfolding very carefully and making rational decisions on what to do next.
Posted by: pepe | Feb 25 2025 18:08 utc | 39
The minister level meeting in Saudi Arabia is more like Yalta 1943 than the latter Yalta.
FDR went to the first big three with a lot of plans but not much accomplished and mostly hope.
Like 1943 there is a lot of bait to cut before RF and USA going fishing together after 3 years of frost.
Kiev corruption is a sideshow
Posted by: paddy | Feb 25 2025 18:09 utc | 40
Mike | Feb 25 2025 17:54 utc | 29
"It's about leaving Ukraine with an excuse."
Several days ago he had the best excuse he's going to get anytime soon (to paraphrase) : "We're sick of throwing money down this rathole where most of it gets stolen, the place is run by a stupid annoying dictator that everyone is sick of, who keeps double dealing against us and who never had a chance in this war anyway. It's all because of these depraved loser Europeans, who as we speak keep trying to make deals to steal our rightful mineral spoils. We decent Americans are sick of them too. Let them pay for their own stupid European wars. We Americans have more important things to do than get involved in World War III for nothing."
However "disingenuous", that's good enough for enough Americans (and sounds exactly right to many of them), and it would've gotten the job done.
Instead, the last few days Trump's been mucking up the waters again, sounding like he's actually serious about this retarded "mineral deposit" stuff (unless he's really already looking ahead to swindling the Russians in some bilateral resource development deal, but that's a different issue than the war), sounding like Macron got him turned around etc.
Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Feb 25 2025 18:11 utc | 41
This isn't difficult. Its the economy stupid. Trump has seen the numbers and knows the US cannot keep spending money that it doesn't have. Economic default will be the end of the USA. He doesn't want it happening on his watch and truth is we are THAT close to the dollar being Zimbabwe like currency. Nobody is too big to fail. especially when the 2nd biggest economy in the world turns its back on you and 6 out of the top 10 economies are in the opposite bloc (BRICS) working assiduously to divorce itself from you. US makes a whole lot from being the trade unit of the world, every time and 2 countries make trade with each other a fraction of that payment goes to the FED in NY. This amounts to BIllions each year. Free money that just sloshes in with no effort
Trump is no pacifist..if Russia was even LOOKING like it was looking, Trump would be all in with the Biden trajectory. He needs to get the Ukraine burden off the budget, Cut services to the bone, trim the budget and maybe even earn a Nobel prize for his efforts
The crazy thing is the fact that the existence of humanity is now totally dependent on the continued heartbeat of 1 man (TRUMP). The psychotic Dems were prepared to risk everything including economic collapse to further their insane desire to defeat Russia. Im not convinced that Vance would be as committed to the course Trump is taking. We need to pray no psycho assassin is mobilised against him to keep the Neocon dream alive.
Posted by: DaVinci | Feb 25 2025 18:14 utc | 42
COST CUTTING AND RECAPITALIZATION: Everything Trump has been doing can seemingly be reconciled with these functional concepts, deeply internalized by him during his days of empire building, where he went from bankruptcy to bankruptcy.
Greenland, Canada, Ukrainian resources – all of these belong to 'recapitalization,' while everything else falls under the heading of cost cutting—all in an attempt to deal with and forestall bankruptcy, morally, ethically and fiscally.
Now, being reductionist and parsimonious and boiling down this complex mess to two business school buzzwords works for me. I'm not saying that it needs to work for you!
We can still attack him on many levels, or attribute whatever else we want to him, but his gaze appears to me to be solidly fixed on these dimensions!
Posted by: Michael64 | Feb 25 2025 18:16 utc | 43
A comment about Bulgaria:
Nationalism remains important to the east of Oder and Adriatic, and attitude to Russia is strongly colored by perceptions of national history, thus Poland + Baltics, very anti-Russian, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, basically neutral and open to Trump, Bulgaria, nationalism is pro-Russian. Like in Serbia, notwithstanding some historical conflicts of Serbia and Bulgaria, while Croatia and Slovenia seem neutral. Thus in neutral and pro- countries, Trump idea has wide positive reception, because anti-Russian policies lacked acceptance but deference to EU was argued by strategic and economic necessity. But now a choice appeared, deference to EU or to USA?
The idea to fund continuation of further war by printing Euro may contributed to opposition toward adopting Euro in Bulgaria (EU office ransacked). Further quote from the linked article
---
Soldiers would be sent to Ukraine “over my dead body”, MP Stanislav Balabanov told the media on Thursday: “Not a single Bulgarian citizen should be sent to the front in Ukraine.”
Posted by: Piotr Berman | Feb 25 2025 18:16 utc | 44
Trump simply wants to distance his administration from this already long lost war. Then, when the end comes he will blame Biden and Europe.
Posted by: nook | Feb 25 2025 18:17 utc | 45
Mainstream media has brainwashed most Americans into reviling Russia and the evil Putin. Most Americans are easily fooled because they are very gullible and stupid.
Most would prefer to live in Russia if they had any knowledge. Life has only become more difficult in the USA as its being gutted by Oligarchs of the NWO.
Posted by: Chaka Khagan | Feb 25 2025 18:17 utc | 46
from what some sources report, Putin is interested in the Americans lifting the sanctions, re-establishing banking connections and starting doing business together again,
if these are the demands of a leader of a Mikitar and economic power, well!
I would rather say that they are the demands of a mouse locked in a cage,
Posted by: Cagliostro | Feb 25 2025 18:18 utc | 47
if these are the demands of a leader of a military and economic power, well!
Posted by: Cagliostro | Feb 25 2025 18:21 utc | 48
If Trump had any clue about economics, he would not have written the biggest check in world history in the amount of 6.3 trillion dollars. He was beaming like a schoolboy when he did it with Mitch McConnell leaning over his shoulder.
Posted by: Chaka Khagan | Feb 25 2025 18:21 utc | 49
Posted by: Exile | Feb 25 2025 17:03 utc | 2
Mass shitcannings and recession are coming to the Land of the Free.
Watching NVDA stock its showing a classic bearish chart. Failed to break out 3x to new ATHs since July of 2024. The last effort was a "kiss of death" where it kisses the ATH, then collapses.
AI is being exposed as marketing hype along with outright civil fraud. Many lawsuits will be coming from plaintiff that relied on illusory promises from tech pricks, to their detriment.
The recession will cause a big drop in tax revenue and make the deficit worse. Lower rates could partially offset that.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Feb 25 2025 18:27 utc | 50
Whatever Trump's plans are he has lost Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Economists are starting to worry about a serious Trump recessionTariffs on America's neighbours and assault on federal government will hit US economy
Donald Trump's assault on the US federal government and the world's interlinked manufacturing system have together reached an economic tipping point.
"It seems almost unavoidable that we are headed for a deep, deep recession," said Jesse Rothstein, Berkeley professor and former chief economist at the US labour department.
Once the pace of job losses crosses a critical line, the multiplier effects can snowball suddenly.
Prof Rothstein said monthly non-farm payrolls -- the barometer of US economic health watched closely by markets -- could turn viciously negative by late spring, contracting at rates surpassed only during the worst months of Covid and the Lehman crisis in 2008.
"I think we're going to see historically large drops. Losses of 400,000 a month are not implausible because people are getting nervous out there.
"It is not just the federal employees being fired: it's all the other people worried they could be next, so they are cutting back too," he told The Telegraph.
Torsten Slok, of Apollo Global, said layoffs could approach 1m after factoring in the likely chain reaction through contractors. "We are starting to worry about the downside risks to the economy and markets," he said.
Mr Slok said it is a mystery as to why credit spreads and equities are still so well-behaved when the US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index was now higher than at any time during the great recession.
continues ==> https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/02/25/economists-starting-worry-serious-trump-recession/
Posted by: too scents | Feb 25 2025 18:28 utc | 51
Posted by: Cagliostro | Feb 25 2025 18:18 utc | 47
###########
What sources? What is their reputation?
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 25 2025 18:29 utc | 52
Posted by: too scents | Feb 25 2025 18:28 utc | 51
On the other hand "a deep, deep recession" will cure inflation tout de suite.
Posted by: too scents | Feb 25 2025 18:30 utc | 53
- I think that Trump has no plan except but grab as much resources in the Ukraine as possible but the bulk of those resources are in the regions now occupied by Russia.
- Did Trump / Msuk announce any budget cuts to the US "defense" budget ? If so then Trump/Musk are REAL about cuts also for the Department of Defense ? Up to now Trump/Musk didn't announce any cuts for the DoD or I didn't hear about those. the "Defense" budget is too beloved to be cut by both Democrats and Republicans. No wonder China is getting (a bit) afraid ?
Lots of questions and very few (good) answers.
Posted by: WMG | Feb 25 2025 18:32 utc | 54
Suppose Russia takes over the Ukraine completely (which is not something it apparently wants to do). Then Russia would have aggressive EU/NATO directly on its borders:
avoiding that situation was a part of what triggered the conflict in the first place.
The problem for Russia is the Europeans. It looks like President Trump is also beginning to see the Euros as the root of the Ukraine problem. Easiest course of action is for the US to walk away and leave Russia & the Euros to work it out.
Posted by: Gavin Longmuir | Feb 25 2025 18:05 utc | 37
I see that and so do others here.
The currently rabid Europeans are only a small clique, very small compared to the population.
And without Russia's raw materials and energy, the whole of Europe would not exist, let alone be competitive. Imagine if Trump exploited that, the direct competitors of the "rest" of Europe's industry would definitely exploit it.
The Ukraine itself... well, the West Ukraine, including its Nazi society, will probably be a problem for the Poles, so it will become the EU, Hungary, Romania will be completely closed to this type of people.
The rest of Ukraine will become a buffer zone for NATO... the dollar will be the first to sacrifice the euro, the USA will hardly be able to supply enough oil and gas because of China, Putin may sanction everything the EU needs to survive, even if only for a short time.
France today offered to provide Europe with a nuclear shield... without having invested in or researched this technology for around 30 years. But don't forget one thing... the French are more left-wing than fascist. And rather hostile towards their government...that means the "offer" will not last long because in an emergency it also means "becoming a target".
Rabid European elites are better off...because they will go down with Selenski or their downfall will be heralded with him.
One could write a thousand words on the subject and get thousands of words of opposing opinion...but Putin (Russia) is not afraid of Europe WITHOUT the USA and does not need to be...
Posted by: berthold | Feb 25 2025 18:32 utc | 55
"Does Trump Really Have A Plan For Ukraine?"
I am sure he does.
Tomorrow, probably a different one. Then another new one the next day.
The real question is, Does Trump have, or is there any realistic possibility of him having, a sane, workable and realistic plan?
I doubt it. He is the embodiment of ignorant arrogance.
Posted by: saner | Feb 25 2025 18:33 utc | 56
To understand Trump, you need to understand the behind the scenes power blocs in the United States. These bloc are, in no particular order:
1. Jewish Neocons. Neocons is a shortened form of Neo-conservative. Irving Kristol, a Jew born in the United States to parents who immigrated from the Russian Empire, and a Trotskyite anti-Stalinist, is the "godfather of neoconservative" and father of Never Trump Bill Kristol. This is a bit to disentangle, but the neocons had their origins in Jews from the Russian Empire who saw in the Bolshevik Revolution an opportunity for Jews to gain control of a major power. Stalin's rise to power and Trotsky's exile enraged them and they moved in the Republican Party, hiding anti-Soviet motivations. The Republican Party welcomed them, not realizing the neoconservatives had no interest in the United States, but instead saw the United States as a tool for the Jewish conquest of Russia. Most astute political observers had begun to suspect this in the 1990s after the fall of the Soviet Union when the neocon's supposed anti-communist stance was revealed to be actually an anti-Russian attitude coupled with an increasingly obvious desire to invade and conquer Russia. When that happened, the Jewish Neocons intended to become the new Russian aristocracy.
2. Non-Jewish neocons. These include the Bush family, etc. They share many of the same goals as the Jewish Neocons, but appear to think they will become the new Russian aristocracy. Personally, I think the Jewish and non-Jewish neocon factions dance around each other, carefully keeping an eye on the other group, waiting for the opportune moment to eliminate them once they win control of Russia.
3. U.S. Imperialists. This group has no hatred of any other countries. It just wants the United States to rule the world. They are no different than Athenian imperialists, Roman imperialists, Mongol imperialists, Ottoman imperialists, etc. They see the neocons as useful tools to bring about the rise of the unipolar world with the United States running everything, everywhere.
4. Greedy bankers. Don't underestimate the concept of "All wars are bankers' wars." Bankers are opportunists and have a love for money. Many old banker families have family wealth in the trillions of dollars. You can buy and sell a lot of politicians with that money. Bankers will work all sides, behind the scenes, for profit. In the United States, those families include the Rockefellers (got their start in oil, but are now a financially powerful family), Morgans, Rothchilds (doesn't every country have them), Gettys (another oil family turned bankers, although most of them live in Europe now), etc.
5. Small time government thieves. These are only small time in comparison to the first four groups. However, they apparently have been plundering the U.S. Treasury for millions every year for decades.
6. America first. This is a majority of Americans who would like to have a country that minds its own business and takes care of its people. The first five groups above hate this group.
So, what about Trump?
Nobody knows what Trump is doing. Does he work for one of the power factions? Is he posing as an American First president, but only to destroy the factions opposing the one he belongs to? Is he truly interested in taking care of his nation and its people? Nobody knows.
Even if he is what he claims to be, an American first president, he is contending with powerful groups. These groups see him as a threat and have tried to destroy him for four years, including assassination attempts. Just today, the news broke about the discover of surveillance devices planted throughout the Oval Office, the president's office. Ukraine is only one part of a very large struggle for Trump.
What are Trump's tactics?
Trump must keep his many powerful, and incredibly wealthy adversaries guessing. When you look at the Rockefeller, Getty, Rothschild families, and the various neocon groups, these people are multi-generational players in the game of subverting the U.S. government to their own ends. Regardless of his goals, Trump cannot allow them to know his plans. You can see some of how he is operating by the pushing Keith Kellogg as the face of his Ukraine policy, up the moment it was revealed a week or so ago that Kellogg was a deception and the true envoy is Steve Witkoff.
Because of this, be very careful about making any strong conclusions. Personally, I think Trump wants to be done with Ukraine. To do this, he is following a carefully constructed plan with deceptions, feints, and blind alleys to prevent his many opponents from marshalling their power against him. Only he knows where he is going.
Posted by: Nobody Special | Feb 25 2025 18:33 utc | 57
From: https://aurelien2022.substack.com/p/what-we-talk-about-when-we-talk-about a few days ago:
Trump, stuck in a commercial negotiation mindset and believing the current situation to favour the US far more than it does, probably thinks that he can walk off with the outlines of a “deal,” with the details to be sorted out later. Putin, a careful lawyer and by reputation something of a stickler for detail, will obviously limit himself to setting out the Russian minimum acceptable demands. Now there’s nothing wrong with that divergence, so long as it is expected and allowed for: indeed, it might actually be educational for Trump to understand what the Russian position is and how firmly it is held. The message that Lavrov gives to Rubio is key in this respect.The whole piece is well worth reading.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 25 2025 18:34 utc | 58
Posted by: too scents | Feb 25 2025 18:28 utc | 51
###############
The other shoe always drops.
Trump hasn't faced more than some weak legal challenges and some retarded protests by congressional Democrats.
I don't know what it will be or how effective it will be but the enemies of Trump aren't going to roll over and play dead.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 25 2025 18:35 utc | 59
1. Of course Trump has no Ukraine plan or any interest in Ukraine.
2. Trump has recognised that the first, the only thing that matters is a security deal with Russia that leaves US safe to concentrate on China. (Yeah I know, that is what Putin said every year since 2007 but shhhh)
3. next in importance for Trump is a few morsels that can be sold to US voters as a success while obscuring what is actually a massive defeat for nato, Europe and at least pre-Trump USA. These "successes" will be the minerals deal and a peace deal with Russia which can be spun as a success even though it will simply be signing again all those previous deals Trump and other Presidents ripped up. Even a withdrawal from Romania and Poland can be spun as a success if they can pretend to concentrate on China.
4. Trump may or may not understand that Russia will never break away from China (a country that can do deals) for USA (which can't). But perhaps enough of his staff and US media don't understand that to spin it anyway.
5. The hard part is Europe. Treat it too soft and it stays as Biden influenced poison, delaying any deal with Russia. Treat it too harshly and it might just turn away from US and do trade deals with Russia and China (=disaster for US). Is there a Goldilocks middle route that works or is the middle way the worst of both worlds?
Posted by: Michael Droy | Feb 25 2025 18:35 utc | 60
American “Special Envoy” Witkoff, who has been identified as the individual most directly involved in talks with the Russians, has basically said the process so far has been limited to outreach and re-establishing dialogue. The only agreements so far have been about moving forward reopening diplomatic facilities in each country.
Specifically on Ukraine, Witkoff has identified what he called the “Instanbul Protocol Agreement” (i.e. the negotiations in Turkey in 2022 shortly after start of SMO) as a potential basis for future talks and negotiation. Nothing has been developed beyond that, and there is no indication the Russians have shared their opinions regarding such aspiration.
The perceived “lack of a plan” seems to refer to the administration’s inconsistent policy proscriptions involving its putative allies, who are not at all on board with a rehabilitation of Russian relations.
Posted by: jayc | Feb 25 2025 18:36 utc | 61
As marcjf in comment 21 implies, Trumps 'plan' to "end" the war depends very much on what definition of "end" is being applied.
It may be that Trump's definition is simply that the "end" of the war occurs once the US washes its hands of the Project. Which would be congruent with the way the US views itself as the only actor which counts on anything and everything. The conflict could likely continue of course, but as far as the US/Trump is concerned it's over because the US is no longer playing because it has taken its bat and ball home?
That might be easier said than done, however. Yesterday's farce with Macron - firstly not being there to greet Macron at the White House and subsequently undermining that action by folding like World Trade Center 7 in agreeing to a rerun for the cameras at Macron's insistence (it made Trump appear weak); and then seeming to do a 'half Annalena' (180 degree U turn) on the issue of a European Peace Keeping contingent - made Trumps' gormlessness more and more apparent.
The European comprador elite may be weak, feckless and venal but it seems reasonable to surmise that the only hand they have is to play to Trump's weaknesses - which is being all over the place. Not at the same time, in parallel as it were, but in series. The inconsistencies and constant changes of direction suggests that it is Trump, rather than his opponents, who are at the wrong end of the OODA loop. No one can cut any kind of serious deal or agreement with someone so inconsistent and making it up on the fly.
The only people Trump is confusing here is himself, his team and the country he represents. Everyone else can simply keep their distance and watch the freak show run out of steam. Except the Europeans who will try to use this weakness to keep the pot boiling in whatever way is necessary.
To have a plan requires an agenda. The problem - and the irony for a supposed businessman like Trump - is that the Trump Agenda is looking more and more like the inverse of the old Godfather meme; "it's not business, it's personal." Trump spent four years out of office not just defending himself from attacks by the Deep State but planning to get revenge on it when he returned to office. What Trump has against the Ukraine conflict is that it was the Project of those who went after him. Ergo, like everything else, he has to pursue a contrary trajectory regardless of whether he has any coherent, never mind workable plan to achieve it.
Posted by: Dave Hansell | Feb 25 2025 18:37 utc | 62
Why does Trump need a plan? This thing has been going on for a few years and at this point it's just tit for tat strikes on each other's energy infrastructure. At this rate it can go on for decades.
Posted by: bored | Feb 25 2025 18:37 utc | 63
Trump is merely a puppet for Zionists. He makes NO decisions whatsoever.
No matter what Trump does,even if it's something "good", his motive is always bad. Everything he does is for the benefit of Zionists. For example, he wants peace in Ukraine because it will make easier for Israel and USA to attack Iran.
Posted by: Anton Gorbatow | Feb 25 2025 18:37 utc | 64
Posted by: jayc | Feb 25 2025 18:36 utc | 61
#########
Karlof1 shared an interview with Lavrov recently that I found very illuminating.
Question: Steve Witkoff, one of the participants in the Russian-US talks in Riyadh, said that the draft Istanbul agreements could again form the basis for resolving the Ukrainian crisis. Can you confirm or deny this information? What consultations between Russia and the United States did Donald Trump talk about on February 25?
Sergey Lavrov: As for Stephen Witkoff's statement that the draft Istanbul Agreements of April 2022 can be taken as a basis for resolving the Ukrainian conflict.I have not heard this.
I can only confirm one thing. President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin has repeatedly made this statement, recalling that in Istanbul we were literally "one hour" away from signing a full-fledged agreement based on the principles proposed by the Ukrainians, but Boris Johnson forbade this. The head of the Ukrainian delegation at those talks, Dmitry Arakhamia, who heads the Servant of the People faction in the Verkhovna Rada, publicly confirmed this fact in his interview that 3 years ago they were ready to sign, but they were banned by the leaders of the regimes who are in London, Brussels and were then in Washington.
The principles of the Istanbul agreements are, first of all, the refusal to join NATO, the deployment of military bases, military exercises with the participation of foreign troops, non-aligned status and the receipt of security guarantees from the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, as well as Turkey, Germany and others. All this was "broken" and decided to "wait" and see in which direction the situation on the battlefield would lean. So we waited.
As for the meeting with the Americans during the Russian-American talks in Riyadh, we agreed to restore channels of communication on all issues in various fields and on international affairs, including Ukraine. The Americans must appoint their special representative for this purpose.
The easiest thing to do is to organize, as we have proposed, the normal operation of the embassies-–the Russian one in Washington and the American one in Moscow. For this purpose, two technical preliminary contacts have already taken place last week. Full consultations will take place this week. I hope that they will remove the artificial obstacles that have been piled up by the democratic administrations of the United States in recent years.
I believe that from the start of the Trump administration, there has been an obvious disconnect between what the Americans say and what the Russians say.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 25 2025 18:42 utc | 65
He does not have a plan because he is not privvy to it. He, like Putin is part of the obscuration layer for us plebs, while real action is not shown though twitter but invisible to us, by the script writers behind the scenes. These guys control both sides of any fake situation. Trump just does what he is told to do today, and tomorrow he will do the same.
Posted by: LikeItsHot | Feb 25 2025 18:42 utc | 66
Posted by: Gavin Longmuir | Feb 25 2025 18:05 utc | 37
"Then Russia would have aggressive EU/NATO directly on its borders:"
EU/NATO is already directly bordering RF confer Kaliningrad bordering Poland and Lithuania and in the north RF bordering Norway, Finland and Estonia.
Posted by: DaVinci | Feb 25 2025 18:14 utc | 42
We need to pray no psycho assassin is mobilized against him to keep the Neocon dream alive.
They already had at least one real swing at him. If a patsy assassin would be mobilized again it would only be done to serve as another message to others who would dare to do the something similar. My bets would be on natural causes or an accident. But let's hope the show can continue for a little longer.
Posted by: xor | Feb 25 2025 18:43 utc | 67
Posted by: Markw | Feb 25 2025 17:19 utc | 10 I agree
We are in a cold civil war, Rooting out the fraud and corruption that funds the deep state and it's tenacles that are spread through out the world is the priority. The Biden administration left booby traps ready to ignite from Ukraine to Palestine. Cleaning up the deep state is the number one priority! Until they can get a firm gripe one things in the USA, it appears like the Trump people are just throwing out "things" to keep everyone guessing and scrambling. If you are not in the US and you don't and you only follow mainstreams media you don't understand the task at hand. Ukraine isn't really that important ... mineral.. sideshow for the masses and the parasitic elites wonder and chew on that's my read. Besides rumored that Z already signed everything way to Stamer in the 100 agreement Yet we are talking to the Russians, that is at least something
Posted by: dp | Feb 25 2025 18:47 utc | 68
At this rate it can go on for decades.
Posted by: bored | Feb 25 2025 18:37 utc | 63
That's asuming Ukraine has/will have enough able bodied men to take up arms, which it does not. Though there is enough cannon fodder that wants to manifest their rusophobia in countries like Poland, that should be good enough for a few years.
Posted by: 5thcolumn | Feb 25 2025 18:50 utc | 69
The plan is to give Putin what he wants. It's not rocket science.Posted by: Mike Adamson | Feb 25 2025 17:17 utc | 9
In the immortal words of an old pay-to-play globalist hag - What difference does it make at this point!?
Is there anything the Empire could offer to Russia, that Russia isn't able to get by itself...?
Posted by: ThirdWorldDude | Feb 25 2025 18:51 utc | 70
At best he is probing. Probably he is all into internal US affairs. Meaning cutting deficit. And the war is the huge part of that deficit. The idea is to skim fat from the colonies, ie Europe. It seams he is doing fine so far. We'll see how long it will last.
Posted by: Grey Cloud | Feb 25 2025 18:52 utc | 71
Does Putin really want to play with SWIFT again after he was ripped off by America's SWIFT?
The ghost of Gaddafi cries out. Don't do what I did.
Dick Tater Putin must Move On Dot Org. With BRICS. I think he's the R in BRICS.
Posted by: Chaka Khagan | Feb 25 2025 18:57 utc | 72
Then Russia would have aggressive EU/NATO directly on its borders:
avoiding that situation was a part of what triggered the conflict in the first place.Posted by: Gavin Longmuir | Feb 25 2025 18:05 utc | 37
thats true, but also a double-edged sword.
at that moment, eu has no proxy between them and russia anymore, and then its themself in the crosshairs.
and if we have witnessed one thing trough all of this ukraine disaster, its that the eu is a bunch of cowards. they talk big all the time, and love hiding behind others, but i have yet to see the cowardly british pipsqueeks or the french going in with their own uniform and armour openly, bravely, like real men.
no, they will shut up and be quiet when that moment arrives, like the cucks that they have all become in brussels and london.
Posted by: Justpassinby | Feb 25 2025 18:57 utc | 73
ThirdWorldDude | Feb 25 2025 18:51 utc | 70
"Is there anything the Empire could offer to Russia, that Russia isn't able to get by itself...?"
The sanctions, the $300 billion, neither of which I'd call of existential importance to Russia; and rolling back NATO forces from eastern Europe, which is important.
But none of those is important enough for Russia to let itself be distracted right now from the necessity to finish the war successfully and completely through force on the ground.
Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Feb 25 2025 18:58 utc | 74
The rabid EU and its dwarves are afraid of losing their livelihood!
.
RT headline today:
"Abolish all red lines against Russia" - Danish Prime Minister incites Europe
.
The truth is...no EU country would be prepared to sacrifice Berlin, Paris, Warsaw or Madrid to come to the aid of even one of the dwarves...
These idiots have left the protection of NEUTRALITY without need and have fallen for Biden's trap...like all EU politicians, now there is a lot of outcry!
ALSO or especially because the world is now laughing at them.
To defeat the EU, not a single Russian soldier would need to cross the borders. Economically speaking, not even a shot would be necessary...
Squeeze them, play them off against each other, and they will betray, destroy and fight each other if necessary.
Posted by: berthold | Feb 25 2025 19:00 utc | 75
Posted by: Nobody Special | Feb 25 2025 18:33 utc | 57
Where do you put the mic and the multinational companies?
Posted by: Naive | Feb 25 2025 19:01 utc | 76
Trump has tried to divert attention from USUKIS direct support for Nazism both in Ukraine and Palestine. But because he isn't familiar with the evils of Nazism, having benefited all his life from a Liberal, Western society, he doesn't understand what is morally wrong with it. He says, trade commodities, but trading commodities doesn't tackle the evil of the corruption or the evil of the killing.
Can you teach an old dog new tricks?
I can only unhelpfully say that Kamala Harris would have 1/ also not recognised the issues at stake and 2/ allowed somebody else to take over the reins . Maybe Obama.
A clueless Trump is a thousand times better than a hidden Obama.
So we should be thankful for small mercies and hope Putin gives him some wise counsel.
Posted by: Giyane | Feb 25 2025 19:01 utc | 77
Trump has a few priorities above that of Ukraine. Staying alive and ahead of all those in to get him is 1.
Building a legacy as the greatest POTUS (MAGA) is another.
It should be no surprise that the US delegation was clueless in Riyadh. There has been no meaningful diplomatic contact prior, and the US civil servants still around are mostly part of the previous blob. But does this mean it was a failure?
Rubio went to listen and judging by the reports of jovial interaction, my guess is the US team came away with a better idea of where to even begin.
What to make of the standover demands by Trump? Could it be his way of raising the stakes so much that it is impossible to comply?
This Administration wants to walk away but with minimum damage to the US, no repeat of the Afghan/Vietnam optics.
Trump has a score to settle with the "elites" in EU who participated in making his 45th a nightmare.
I expect there will be loads of fumbling and missteps by the US, especially since most of the players are still haunted by the old "Narrative".
Posted by: Suresh | Feb 25 2025 19:02 utc | 78
"A clueless Trump is a thousand times better than a hidden Obama"
not for those of us who live under the poverty line
I just wish they'd send the black pill already
cuz TAX CUTS FOR BILLIONAIRES is waaaaay more important than citizen's lives and health
Ukraine/Europe seems far away when your survival is on the line
Posted by: furies | Feb 25 2025 19:08 utc | 79
The sanctions, the $300 billion, neither of which I'd call of existential importance to Russia; and rolling back NATO forces from eastern Europe, which is important.
But none of those is important enough for Russia to let itself be distracted right now from the necessity to finish the war successfully and completely through force on the ground.
Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Feb 25 2025 18:58 utc | 74
.
This fits in with:
Sanctions that Hungary and Slovakia now actually want to block!
If they do this, the frozen billions from Russia would be free again!
Problem:
Billions of interest are missing, as we know, paid out to Ukraine or weapons bought with it.
Belgium, as the administrator of the billions, now has a problem and this was also raised loudly in Brussels in view of Trump's behavior and his suggestion that all sanctions should be lifted...which the EU does not have to do in return but will then go under economically very quickly!
In Brussels, the Belgians were actually given a way out...
"Declare war on Russia, then the billions would not have to be paid back"
Should we laugh about it...or be happy that the problems that arise when sanctions are lifted...
The respective people are left alone...which in turn will become clear to the people very quickly.
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Posted by: berthold | Feb 25 2025 19:09 utc | 80
The truth is...no EU country would be prepared to sacrifice Berlin, Paris, Warsaw or Madrid to come to the aid of even one of the dwarves...
Posted by: berthold | Feb 25 2025 19:00 utc | 75
Russia will never target cities, it is not useful. All objectives will be military ones. And we are far, far from it.
Because the western leaders are cowards. They show it for 11 years already.
To understand trump: it is enough to remember: we cheat, we lie, we steal. He always did it and will do it. Sorry for the trumptards.
In fact: I am not sorry.
Posted by: Naive | Feb 25 2025 19:11 utc | 81
Trump turned out to be that bridge in Brooklyn he was trying to sell everyone. What a salesman! The USA bought swampland in Florida and thought it was Monaco. Trump is a real-estate guy; why did we expect he'd know anything about anything else?
Posted by: Patroklos | Feb 25 2025 19:12 utc | 82
We all know about the Boy who cried Wolf.
Trump got his first shot at being transformative in 2016.
He was not.
By transformative, we mean disabling the western liberal system to continue acting unipolar-ly.
Biden came in and sure as shit, nothing had changed in terms of wonton disregard for "others" and their sovereignty from Obama to Biden. Trump did nothing.
For four years during Biden, we heard from Trump that the system had been completely exposed and he knew exactly how to handle it now.
So we give him another shot with the caveat that you must act quickly.
That window is closing very fast.
...
In my view of things, Trump was a historical figure because he announced phenomenon of the liberal world order that could no longer be hidden from speaking it. In this way, he was perfectly assigned because of his nature as an opportunity and showman.
TPTB in one final effort to maintain hold over the security state that had existed since the destruction of the Germans in WW2 and had its architectural blueprints established decades prior that even, gave Trump airtime.
But the window is fast closing.
And Trump, once a champion of world spirit, is now becoming a tragic figure before our eyes.
"Those who assiduously follow the way
treat the people as straw dogs..."
~ Tao Te Ching
Trump is about to be trampled on. Mar-a-Lago like Chernobyl.
Posted by: NemesisCalling | Feb 25 2025 19:15 utc | 83
Sanctions that Hungary and Slovakia now actually want to block!
If they do this, the frozen billions from Russia would be free again!
Posted by: berthold | Feb 25 2025 19:09 utc | 80
It's just talk, like they always do. Both Hungary and Slovakia never went through with any vetos. They all fall in line in the end. It is just theatrics. Fico can talk about being "pro-russia" all he can, yet Slovakia keeps supplying weapons to Ukraine. One of the Zuzana 2 howitzers spectacularly exploded today at a testing ground in Slovakia before being handed over to Ukraine btw.
https://dennikn.sk/minuta/4489231/
The explosion occurred this morning at the military institute's training ground in Zagorje during test firing of the newly manufactured howitzer before its transfer to Ukraine.
The police have launched an investigation into the incident. It is not ruled out that the powder charge of a large-caliber projectile exploded.
Posted by: 5thcolumn | Feb 25 2025 19:18 utc | 84
Let's take inventory:
a. EU has just committed itself to spend _another_ $700 billion to continue the Ukrainian war, to re-arm the EU to continue to heckle Russia. A significant amount of that $700B will get spent on U.S.-produced armaments
b. EU is under sizeable and growing economic pressure to "find something new" to be and do in order to have a viable economy. The recent election does little to address that problem, and boxes the E.U. into at least another 3 to 5 years of decline while they chant "Russia Russia Russia". That's the political fault line, expect major repression to continue papering it over.
c. The recent German election has solidified (enough) political control to continue with the Hate Russia campaign, and if you look at the poll numbers (from Conor Gallagher's Naked Capitalism report on the German election) across the E.U., they are all-in on Opposing Russia
What Trump has done is to accelerate, via rhetoric and some political snubs, the process of getting the U.S. out of Europe. Unless he's turfed out (one way or another), E.U. has four more years of disconnection to look forward to. All Trump has to do is to continue to be "not committed" and "not supportive", and then, quite shortly now, E.U. owns Ukraine war and more broadly EU-Russia cold war. When you want out of a deal, find a way to ask for something the other side simply can't provide.
If the "plan" is disconnect from EU, EU-Ukraine, and EU-.vs.-Russia, looks to me like that's very well underway. And those actions definitely _do_ play well to Trump's base.
While that's going on, there are major efforts underway in the U.S. to re-shore, re-industrialize, and lock up the markets of the Americas. Up-thread, someone said "tactics are for amateurs, logistics are for professionals".
I'd amend that to say "tactics are for amateurs, fundamental economic strategy and investment is for professionals". That "fundamental economic strategy and investment" - here in the U.S. - is (apparently) coming from both the public and private sector. It comes from the private sector, and the private sector is in-motion:
a. Major new north-south (Canada, U.S. and Mexico) railroad company consolidation (FEC and Ferromex, and CN and KCS)
b. Tariffs to reduce imports of goods that can be sourced within the U.S.
c. Chasing China out of Central and South America
d. Attempting to "buy" Greenland
e. Walmart, U.S.' largest retailer, announced $600 billion investment in U.S. manufacturing over next decade (TV ads I saw recently touted $700B)
So, E.U. spends $700B on boat-anchor military equipment while (just one!) U.S. company spends $600B on re-shoring manufacturing.
Those are just a few of the elements of major economic re-positioning occurring here in the U.S.
I think there's a plan emerging from the People That Own Stock .vs. the Globalists (who are in the pillaging business).
I'm not sure what role Trump is assigned to / allowed to play; he's acting like he's siding with the Stock Owners. Watch where the money is getting invested - where it's coming from, and where it's going. That will deliver a clearer picture.
Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | Feb 25 2025 19:19 utc | 85
"Does Trump Really Have A Plan For Ukraine?"
Of course not!
He may have some whims like re-naming it "Trump Land" but nothing remotely practical!
Posted by: lester | Feb 25 2025 19:22 utc | 86
Zelensky just agreed to Trump's rare earths deal. War's over boys.
Posted by: bored | Feb 25 2025 19:29 utc | 87
Posted by: bored | Feb 25 2025 19:29 utc | 87
How is this minerals deal going to end the war? I thought the deal would drag Trump into it?
Posted by: Al Balog | Feb 25 2025 19:31 utc | 88
The Trump team had time to prepare the "opening shots", and did so very successfully. But it gets harder when you have to start to improvise.
If thousands of smart people around the world are unable to figure out what the plan is, chances are there is no plan.
Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 25 2025 19:32 utc | 89
Will it go anywhere? I hope so, but I’m not holding my breath.
“For the first time ever, a US-based organization has formally asked the International Criminal Court to investigate a former US president for possible complicity in war crimes and crimes against humanity.
The 172-page request submitted by the Democracy for the Arab World Now (DAWN) alleges several figures – including former President Biden, former Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and former Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin – aided and abetted Israeli war crimes in Gaza.”
https://zeteo.com/p/breaking-icc-asked-to-investigate
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Feb 25 2025 19:32 utc | 90
a. EU has just committed itself to spend _another_ $700 billion to continue the Ukrainian war, to re-arm the EU to continue to heckle Russia. A significant amount of that $700B will get spent on U.S.-produced armaments
Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | Feb 25 2025 19:19 utc | 85
###########
As with American aid to Ukraine, a good chunk of that will be spent domestically and clawed back through taxes and payoffs.
Government funding in the West never goes where it is advertised for.
So, France will spend, say, $300M on fighter jets, which will go to French firms, stimulating wages (income taxes) and employment.
Whether the planes are worth a damn on the battlefield is irrelevant. Macron will be long gone by the time that question is answered.
Much of Biden's NATO aid money was payoffs to the MIC under the auspice of helping Ukraine.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 25 2025 19:34 utc | 91
Posted by: bored | Feb 25 2025 19:29 utc | 87
Eat shit and die, troll!
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Feb 25 2025 19:39 utc | 92
Q1: Is there a plan?
A1: Maybe. Anyone can make a plan just as well as anyone can decide a plan would be useless. Did Biden have a plan beyond self-enrichment? Does Trump need a plan beyond looking good to himself/his own?
Q2: If there is a plan then does it matter?
A2: Probably not. Would a plan to push it all onto the EU or the UK or even to just walk away actually mean anything much? It hasn't so far has it? At least not beyond wild speculation.
Is this a fair take and/or decent answers that avoid jumping into speculation and confirmation bias?
Is there really all that much else that can be said? I mean I see people are trying but there are so many assumptions.
The questions look too big for the limited/nonexistent amount of data. The error bars of uncertainty cover the entire field of possible answers.
No? Just me then :)
Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Feb 25 2025 19:41 utc | 93
With all due respect to the learned barflies that populate this place, the Saudi Arabia confab with Russia was not primarily about Ukraine. Ukraine is a Biden Fustercluck that will be resolved sooner than you think on better than Istanbul terms for Russia as is proper in light of its military advantage. Saudi Arabia was about normalizing relations with Russia, indeed, creating an economic one that is the opposite of sanctions. As to europe, they can take it or leave it. More importantly, like Trump, Putin is anti-globalist and two of three superpowers with nationalistic ideals would present an insurmountable barrier to the dystopic plans of the monsters at the WEF. Trump's ultimate goal is a better America for his wards and a more peaceful world, recognizing it is indeed multipolar with the 3 superpowers to be happy with their respective spheres of influence and incursion into the spheres of the other will be by consent in the future, most often purchased. Trump is by no means a moron with no plans, indeed, quite the opposite.
Posted by: Oddknot | Feb 25 2025 19:42 utc | 94
Interesting stuff – though it more like Fourteen Eyes than Five Eyes.
“White House official pushes to axe Canada from Five Eyes intelligence group”
https://nitter.poast.org/FT/status/1894407407196860509#m
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Feb 25 2025 19:42 utc | 95
Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Feb 25 2025 18:58 utc | 74
The sanctions turned out to be a gift of self-sustainability and unexpected economic growth, and the $300 billion are only a matter of principles and trust in the system of international law (Russia could retaliate manyfold, but she willfully chose not to be like her enemies).
I concur with your assessment and believe that's exactly what the Russians are planning to do - let the Yanks boast about peacemaking, only rebuke their pompous statements once in a while and in a very polite manner, all the while keeping up pace on the battlefield until all of the goals of the SMO are fully accomplished. After all, it's definitely not Russia who's desperate to "make a deal"...
Posted by: ThirdWorldDude | Feb 25 2025 19:43 utc | 96
The Plan
In the beginning, there was a plan,
And then came the assumptions,
And the assumptions were without form,
And the plan without substance,
And the darkness was upon the face of the workers,
And they spoke among themselves saying,
"It is a crock of shit and it stinks."
And the workers went unto their Supervisors and said,
"It is a pile of dung, and we cannot live with the smell."
And the Supervisors went unto their Managers saying,
"It is a container of excrement, and it is very strong,
Such that none may abide by it."
And the Managers went unto their Directors saying,
"It is a vessel of fertilizer, and none may abide by its strength."
And the Directors spoke among themselves saying to one another,
"It contains that which aids plants growth, and it is very strong."
And the Directors went to the Vice Presidents saying unto them,
"It promotes growth, and it is very powerful."
And the Vice Presidents went to the President, saying unto him,
"This new plan will actively promote the growth and vigour
Of the company With very powerful effects."
And the President looked upon the Plan
And saw that it was good,
And the Plan became Policy.
And this, my friend, is how shit happens.
From anonymous email.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 25 2025 19:45 utc | 97
Jeremy Rhymings-Lang ( Feb 25 2025 19:45 utc | 97 ):
And then the party congress/state of the union breaks out in thunderous applause.
Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Feb 25 2025 19:49 utc | 98
Any Flashman aficionados out there. Flashman at the Charge is set during the 1st Crimean War It is a metaphor for the current Ukraine situation:
Flashman, Scud East and Vala are pursued, through the snow by first wolves, then Cossacks, across the Kerch Causeway trying to escape Count Ignatieff and report to Raglan at Sevastopol. Flashman heaves the naked and drunken Vala out of the sled to lighten the load.
So, the discarded Vala would be a coked up Zelensky. The scoundrel Flashman, (Trump), tossing her into the snow to the oncoming Cossacks (RF). Count Ignatieff as Putin. The virtuous Scud East as the virtue signaling puppy Trudeau, reporting back to Raglan (EU/NATO).
Whaddya think?
Posted by: dontflayme | Feb 25 2025 19:50 utc | 99
Le Petit said this whilst standing next to Trump – France and America have impinged upon – crossed so many borders illegally that, this from Macron would be funny if it wasn’t such BS. Recently Le Petit’s imperialist troops have been getting kicked-out all over Africa – so Macron will have an abundance of troops standing around – not making money for France’s elite or French corporations.
“French Pres. Macron lauded the “courage of the Ukrainian people” in their fight against Russia, saying at a White House press conference on Monday: “No one in this room wants to live in a world where … international borders can be violated from one day to the next by anyone.””
https://nitter.poast.org/ABC/status/1894117419532046742#m
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Feb 25 2025 19:51 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
sometimes not having a plan is the plan
Posted by: g wiltek | Feb 25 2025 17:00 utc | 1