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The Guessing Game Over Trump’s Real Aims In Ukraine
The guessing game about President Donald Trump's real position on peace in Ukraine continues.
Some commentators, including yours truly, think that Trump has blown it by becoming too committed to Ukraine. Others believe that Trump is deceiving the public while working on peace in the backroom.
The last two blog post were part of the guessing game:
To recap the first piece:
Neither approach one might think Trump is taking – to use a Ukraine resource deal to keep the U.S. in Ukraine and the war going, or to use the Ukraine resource deal to finally break with Ukraine – is consistent with a realistic assessment of the facts on the ground. At least not if the aim of the game is to make peace.
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The conclusion for me is that there is no Trump plan at all to make peace in Ukraine.
and the second:
By pressing for the agreement, instead of taking the Russian offer for access to minerals, Trump has committed himself to continue the war in Ukraine.
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It will lead to the failure of his peace initiative.
The war Ukraine is now destined to become Trump's Vietnam.
Yves Smith at Naked Capitalism is supportive of my last take. Citing a recent talk between Judge Napolitano and Col. Douglas MacGregor she writes:
This segment confirms what yours truly had warned about, yet quite a few members of the commentariat seem unwilling to accept: that the Ukraine minerals deal, if consummated, will commit the US to involvement in and therefore support of Ukraine.
Put it another way, there’s no value to this arrangement, and high embarrassment to Trump, if peace negotiations fail (perhaps more accurately, fail even to get started).
During that segment Napolitano presented a quote from Trump:
Trump: President Zelensky’s coming to sign the deal, and it’s a great thing. It’s a great deal for Ukraine too because get us over there, we’re going to be working over there, we’ll be on the land, and that way, it’s sort of automatic security, because nobody is going to be messing around with our people while when we’re there. And so we’ll be there in that way. But Europe will be watching it very closely. I know that UK has said and France has said that they want to put, they volunteered to put so-called peacekeepers on the ground. And I think that’s a good thing.
Napolitano as well as Macgregor dislike Trump's position:
Cont. reading: The Guessing Game Over Trump’s Real Aims In Ukraine
Palestine Open Thread 2025-040
News & views related to the war in Palestine …
Ukraine Open Thread 2025-039
News & views related to the war in Ukraine …
Open (Neither Ukraine Nor Palestine) Thread 2025-038
News & views not related to the wars in Ukraine and Palestine …
Please Support Moon of Alabama
Dear Readers,
twice a year I ask for your help to keep Moon of Alabama going. (I had to skip the last round because I was sick and could not deliver.)
Many come here because they value my analyses. Others are fond of MoA's vivid, if at times overcrowded comment section. I am very proud to host and nurture it, to the best of my abilities.
There are reasons to recommended Moon of Alabama:
Clandestine @WarClandestine – 0:29 UTC · Feb 20, 2025
The world is starting to realize that Ukraine was a massive psyop and money laundering operation. …
Ash @AshleySCHowes – 1:16 UTC · Feb 20, 2025
That's why I always follow @MoonofA when conflict arises. He called it right from Week 1 of the SMO and I never got fooled by the propaganda.
A recent piece for example: Link
Here are more reasons why you should consider to drop me a dime.
I, of course, love feedback like the above. Unfortunately I can't live of it. I also need to pay for food, rent and other necessities of life.
This site is the full time effort of one person. There is no other income I can rely on. While I live in somewhat better circumstances than Spitzweg's Poor Poet, I am neither rich nor do I indulge in luxuries.
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Every donation to this Poor Poet – be it $5, $50, $500 or more – is welcome and needed. A recurring contribution or sponsorship would be great. See below on how to do it.
Cont. reading: Please Support Moon of Alabama
Ukraine – Minerals Deal Agreement, Lavrov Rejects Peacekeepers, War Destined To Become Trump’s Vietnam
The New York Times reports (archived) that “Ukraine has agreed to turn over the revenue from some of its mineral resources to the United States”.
Ukraine will get nothing of value in return for it. The (former) Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenski is expected to visit the White House of Friday to submit to the extraordinary extortion of his country.
The deal is imposed indentured servitude at scale:
a form of labor in which a person is contracted to work without salary for a specific number of years. The contract called an “indenture”, may be entered voluntarily for a prepaid lump sum, as payment for some good or service (e.g. travel), purported eventual compensation, or debt repayment. An indenture may also be imposed involuntarily as a judicial punishment. The practice has been compared to the similar institution of slavery, although there are differences.
Ukraine is expected to get nothing, except more war, from this agreement. As Ted Snider describes it:
Normally, it is the country that defeated you in war, and not the country that defended you, that pillages you after the war. Unfortunately for Ukraine, its biggest military defender is set to pillage its resources as the two countries have now signed a minerals agreement after Trump warned that a refusal to sign would have led to “a lot of problems” for Ukraine.
Many mistakes have been made in the war over Ukraine’s minerals: Zelensky may have made a mistake in his strategy, and Trump may be mistaken in facts.
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[T]he ones who will suffer from the American pillaging of Ukraine will be the people of Ukraine. All of that revenue that will be exported out of the country is money that could now be spent on defense and later spent on rebuilding the tattered economy and reconstructing the shattered nation.
Ukrainian media just published the full text of the agreement. Strana summarizes it as follows (machine translation):
Cont. reading: Ukraine – Minerals Deal Agreement, Lavrov Rejects Peacekeepers, War Destined To Become Trump’s Vietnam
Does Trump Really Have A Plan For Ukraine?
The weird thing about President Trump’s plans for Ukraine is that no knows what they actually are.
Over the last days I have tried to understand what he is trying to achieve. I fail to come up with a theory that makes sense. His behavior is inconsistent. There are also no helpful hints from the White House or leaks to the press. There is frenetic action here and there and pompous pronouncements. But what are the overall plans?
Prof. Mearsheimer likewise says (vid) that Trump’s behavior makes no sense. Blackmailing Ukraine into a resource extraction deal is not a realist position. It is not even mercantilistic. There is nothing to sell there and any deal will be scuppered by courts under oligarch pressure. It makes no sense.
So what is the evidence that Trump has a plan? What is the evidence that he is really negotiating with Russia? What is he factually doing to shut down the war as he has claimed he would do?
Yves Smith, quoting contrarian opinions of Brian Berletic and John Helmer, is likewise wondering what Trump is about:
Because the Trump Administration has no clear idea of what it wants in terms of a Ukraine end game, save being able to claim that Trump ended the war and is therefore a great deal-maker, it is at serious risk of falling into the behavior Sun Tsu warned about: “All tactics and no strategy is the noise before the defeat.”
Specifically, we’ll discuss how oddly under-amplified assessments by Brian Berletic and John Helmer, show that the idea, popular in the independent media, that Trump represents a great foreign policy break from the past is exaggerated. His difference in methods are being unduly confused with differences in aims.
But we’ll first address the way a new Administration pet fixation, that of wresting a minerals/other economic rights deal from Ukraine, is contrary to the aim of reaching an agreement with Russia.
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Now this Ukraine minerals deal may be an example of Trump habits operating to his detriment. Consider how the Trump approach of maximizing his possible negotiating space by advancing all sorts of frame-breaking ideas is not such a hot idea when done reflexively, as seems to be the case in Trump 2.0, as opposed to deliberately.
Trump himself regularly threatens radically extreme actions, like ethnic cleansing in Gaza, and browbeats heads of state to try to get his way. Not only is Trump not getting his Riviera development there, but his bullying makes him look like a petulant jerkface. Why should anyone want to get in any relationship with a partner who relishes not just crass dominance displays but even humiliating heads of state (witness King Abdullah of Jordan) and is indifferent to destabilizing the entire region? These actions are inimical to building trust and dealing with anything other than subservient parties.
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Or perhaps Trump and his operatives still believe that Russia is having trouble sustaining its war effort, and so shoring up US credibility and commitment will lead Russia to make concessions.
Neither approach one might think Trump is taking – to use a Ukraine resource deal to keep the U.S. in Ukraine and the war going, or to use the Ukraine resource deal to finally break with Ukraine – is consistent with a realistic assessment of the facts on the ground. At least not if the aim of the game is to make peace.
Trump is may be just rearranging the chairs before continuing with the same old imperial program:
Cont. reading: Does Trump Really Have A Plan For Ukraine?
Elections In Germany: “Erst kommt das Fressen …”
In comments I was asked to write about yesterday’s elections in Germany. But I find it difficult to describe my country from its inside. There are already good reviews available and Conor Gallagher at Naked Capitalism has done a great job with this one which I highly recommend to read:
Germany Holds an Election in an Alternate Reality – Naked Capitalism, Feb 24 2025
In the alternate reality of German politics the U.S. is a friend. It did not blow up the Nord Stream pipeline and it did nothing to provoke the proxy war with Russia. In the alternate reality the Weakness in the German Manufacturing Sector has not been caused by it.
In the alternate reality it is all about ‘values’.
The legendary writer Billmon had named his blog Whiskey Bar. It was a reference to the Alabama Song by Berthold Brecht. When Billmon closed the comments at his site I opened this blog as an alternative. I named it Moon of Alabama in reference to the chorus of that song.
The German election has brought another Brecht opera to my mind.
Living in their alternate reality the ruling parties in Germany have forgotten that “Fressen” (Engl.: guzzling, seizure, scoring) comes before “Moral” (Engl.: ethics, morale, values).
The voters have honored that by looking and voting for ‘alternatives’:
Berhold Brecht, Dreigroschenoper, NR. 15. ZWEITES DREIGROSCHEN-FINALE.
Cont. reading: Elections In Germany: “Erst kommt das Fressen …”
Palestine Open Thread 2025-037
News & views related to the war in Palestine …
Ukraine Open Thread 2025-036
News & views related to the war in Ukraine …
The MoA Week In Review – OT 2025-035
Last week’s posts on Moon of Alabama:
☀️👀 @zei_squirrel – 15:53 UTC · Feb 21, 2025
> one of the few benefits of Elon Musk giving me a bluecheck without me asking for it is that I can post videos of any length. So here is the full Gaza documentary the BBC just removed from their site because genocidal Zionist freaks demanded they censor it: >>> video <
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Other issues:
Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review – OT 2025-035
Zelenski Has Yet To Eat The Shit Sandwich
“It’s a sh*t sandwich,” a Trump administration official acknowledged.
“But Ukraine is going to have to eat it because [Trump] has made clear this is no longer our problem.”
Axios
The Trump administration is increasing its pressure on Ukraine’s (former) president Zelenski to swallow the shit sandwich. It offered a ‘new’ version of it which turned out to be the same as the old one:
The United States is doubling down on a demand that Ukraine relinquish half of its revenues from natural resources, including minerals, gas and oil, as well as earnings from ports and other infrastructure, according the document, which was reviewed by The New York Times.
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The document, which was dated Feb. 21, states that the revenues will be directed to a fund in which the United States holds 100 percent financial interest, and that Ukraine should contribute to the fund until it reaches $500 billion — the amount President Trump has demanded from the war-torn country in exchange for American aid. That is more than twice Ukraine’s gross domestic product before the war.
The document does not stipulate that the United States will provide security guarantees for Ukraine in return for access to Ukrainian resources. That key demand from President Volodymyr Zelensky was absent in the first draft agreement presented to him last week, prompting him to decline to sign the deal.
There was even a threat, twice, to withdraw Starlink access from Ukraine’s army should Zelenski reject the steal:
U.S. negotiators pressing Kyiv for access to Ukraine’s critical minerals have raised the possibility of cutting the country’s access to Elon Musk’s vital Starlink satellite internet system, three sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.
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The issue was raised again on Thursday during meetings between Keith Kellogg, the U.S. special Ukraine envoy, and Zelenskiy, said one of the sources, who was briefed on the talks.
Without Starlink access it will be much more difficult for the Ukrainian army to control the frontline. Ukraine’s replies to the threat were not diplomatic.
Zelenski has only himself to blame for this.
During last fall he offered his victory plan, largely a list with demands for more support. It was supposed to be rejected as it was. But one detail in the plan was supposed to tickle Trump’s interest:
Cont. reading: Zelenski Has Yet To Eat The Shit Sandwich
By Drones, Mines And Missiles – The British Naval War Against Russia In Ukraine
Since at least 2014 The United Kingdom has been a major participant in NATO’s proxy war against Russia. During the hot phase of the war it has directed a drone and missile campaign in the Black Sea. It is likely responsible for current attacks against Russia related sea transport. It is developing new naval drones for further assaults on Russia.
Britain had initiated and run massive public relation campaigns blaming Russia for various outrages which, in fact, never had happened. Consider the Skripal Affair, the MI6’s Steele dossier used to launch Russiagate and other operations launched through the anti-Russian Integrity Initiative run by the UK government’s Institute of Statecraft.
It was the Brits who, during the war in Ukraine, directed the Black Sea Attack Network (BSAN) to push the Russian fleet out of Sevastopol in Crimea. British Storm Shadow missile were fired against various ships. Directed by British signal intelligence seagoing drones, made in Britain, attacked Russian transports as well as the Kerch Bridge.
As the Armchair Warlord explained:
The BSAN sea drone program scored a number of successes and hair-raising near-misses over the course of 2023 and early 2024, most notably sinking the Tarantul-class missile boat Ivanovets with what was likely some loss of life on February 1st, 2024. At that point I suspect that the Russian Navy decided that something had to be done and, having carefully studied their foe, put a plan into action to destroy what was to them the most concerning part of the BSAN – the maritime drone program.
Using a few rusty old ships as bait the Russian command observed the signal activities during Ukrainian attacks, uncovered the British run network, and finally killed it:
Cont. reading: By Drones, Mines And Missiles – The British Naval War Against Russia In Ukraine
A Left Behind Europe (And Ukraine) Will Fall Into Chaos
Tuesday's talks (not yet 'negotiations') between the Foreign Ministers of the United States and the Russian Federation went well. More will follow. The readouts and interviews from the U.S. and Russia were all positive.
Embassies and Consulates of both sides, shut down for absurd reasons during the Obama and Biden administration, will be reopened and restaffed. Normal diplomatic relations will resume. That in itself is a huge step forward.
There were no negotiations yet about the war in Ukraine. Envoys and delegations will be named to crack that nut. It will be a challenge. The process will take some time.
Meanwhile discussions on other issues will resume and expand. Russia put out some bait. It offered cooperation in economic fields of bilateral interest. U.s. companies may get (re-)invited to explore Russian oil and gas fields, especially in the Arctic.
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Ukraine's former president Zelenski has rejected a blackmailing 'offer' Trump had made to gain 50% of all future Ukrainian income from its resources. (Offering U.S. access to Ukrainian resources had been part of Zelenski's 'victory plan'.) He also took a hostile position towards the talks with Russia and said he would no accept their results.
Shortly before the talks took place the Ukrainian military attacked U.S. interests in Russia. The Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov was asked about it:
Cont. reading: A Left Behind Europe (And Ukraine) Will Fall Into Chaos
Zionist Shots Zionists – Both Blame Arabs
The weird racist mindset behind this terrorist attack is fascinating:
A man who was reportedly hunting Palestinians was arrested over the weekend for shooting two Israelis on Miami Beach in Florida after mistaking them for Palestinians, …
The man, identified as Mordechai Brafman, was detained on Saturday night and faces two counts of attempted second-degree murder, according to reports.
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According to Brafman’s arrest report, he told police in an interview, "While I was driving my truck, I saw two Palestinians and shot and killed both."
Neither of the victims were killed, and the police said they were visitors from Israel.
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Moments after being shot, the Israeli man who was the victim of the shooting took to social media and wrote, “My father and I went through a murder attempt against anti-semitic background.” He finished his social media post with the words, “Death to Arabs.”
A 27 year old married plumber in Miami is driving around with a gun. He sees darker skinned people and shots them because they are 'Palestinians'. The victims turn out to be Jewish colonists who express the exactly same racist mindset and hate as the guy who shot at them.
There is so much wrong with these people that I do not know where to start.
Where does such hate come from?
Alon Mizrahi, himself a darker skinned Jew from Israel, tries to explain (video) how the Zionist apartheid system in Palestine creates it.
How long will it take for the world to decide that such a mindset, and the system creating it, can not be allowed to exist?
Where Trump’s Punishment Of Europe Should Lead To
On February 28 2022, five days after the operation to disarm Ukraine had started, I offered a prediction where it might lead to:
The U.S. and its proxies in the EU and elsewhere have put up very harsh sanctions on Russia to damage its economy.
The final intent of this economic war is regime change in Russia.
The likely consequence will be regime change in many other countries.
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All energy consumption in the U.S. and EU will now come at a premium price. This will push the EU and the U.S. into a recession. As Russia will increase the prices for exports of goods in which it has market power – gas, oil, wheat, potassium, titanium, aluminum, palladium, neon etc – the rise in inflation all around the world will become significant.
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The shunning of economic relations with Russia and China means that Germany and its newbie chancellor Olaf Scholz have fallen for the U.S. scheme of creating a new Cold War. Germany's economy will now become one of its victims.
On February 4 Russia and China declared a multipolar world in which they are two partnering poles that will counter the American one. Russia's move into the Ukraine is a demonstration of that.
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The Europeans should have acknowledged that instead of helping the U.S. to keep up its self-image of a unipolar power.
It will take some time for the new economic realities to settle in. They will likely change the current view of Europe's real strategic interests.
Trump's re-election was the most important regime change caused by the war in Ukraine. On Sunday there will be elections in Germany. Following three years of a shrinking German economy they will lead to another regime change. Many are still to follow.
What I could not predict at that time was that Trump's punishment of Europe would become an accelerator of the process.
Mark Ames @MarkAmesExiled – 15:30 UTC · Feb 18, 2025
The entire US/European media & political establishment are telling themselves (and us, repeatedly) that Trump "is being played by Putin" re: Ukraine. Because they cannot let themselves contemplate the other possibility: that Team Trump is deliberately punishing Ukraine & Europe.
I am not sure who is still claiming that Trump is 'being played by Putin'. Hasn't that play finished? But I am sure about the 'deliberately punishing' part.
Why would Trump want to punish Ukraine and Europe? Because they helped the Democrats and the Deep State to sabotage his first presidency.
Scott Ritter's wide ranging piece on the Munich Security Conference does well in explaining this:
Cont. reading: Where Trump’s Punishment Of Europe Should Lead To
U.S. Questions For European Governments – Another Wake-up Call
U.S. Vice President JD Vance has held up a mirror to Europe's 'elite' which did not like to acknowledge what could be seen in it: Minions, a lot of minions.
"But our common values?" cried Christoph Heusgen, the chairman of the Munich Security Conference.
What values Mr. Heusgen? Those displayed daily, with your applause, by the European colonists in Palestine?
"Like a headless chicken," is what the German broadsheet Frankfurter Allgemeine called the reaction of Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The descriptions fits to (nearly) all European leader.
Today U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will meet Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Saudi Arabia. They will talk like grownups, EU be damned, and find ways to achieve peace in Ukraine and elsewhere.
The Europeans are aghast that they are not invited to take part in the talks.
But why would one invite parties to peace talks when they want nothing more than to sabotage those? The EU's foreign representative Kaja Kallas, a former mayor of Baltic villages, dreams of breaking up Russia into smaller states. How could Russia ever seriously negotiate with such people?
Today the Europeans will huddle in Paris to find some, any, way to get out of the mess. It won't work unless they acknowledge that the war in Ukraine has been lost.
The U.S. has recognized that there aren't enough troops, money or will to achieve a better negotiation position for what's left of Ukraine. The European 'elite' still fails to get that.
Any prolongation of the war will lead to more losses of land to Russia. Will it take the fall of Odessa for the Europeans to be finally ready for talks?
There are still dreams of 'security guarantees' which would be given to Ukraine after it files for peace or surrenders.
No such guarantees would make any sense. When peace is achieved there will be only one manner that can prevent a new outbreak of war: good behavior towards Russians and Russia by what will be left of Ukraine.
Failing that no European battalions strewn over Ukraine could prevent or even hinder another special military operation.
The U.S. negotiation team handed the Europeans a list of questions that will hopefully help them to come to grips with that:
The United States has sent European governments a set of questions about what they would need from the U.S. in order to provide Ukraine with security guarantees.
A U.S. State Department spokesperson said that Washington "has been clear that we expect European partners to take the lead in establishing a durable security framework and look forward to their proposals."
Here are the questions with answers by me in Italic:
Cont. reading: U.S. Questions For European Governments – Another Wake-up Call
Palestine Open Thread 2025-034
News & views related to the war in Palestine …
Ukraine Open Thread 2025-033
News & views related to the war in Ukraine …
The MoA Week In Review – OT 2025-032
Last week's posts on Moon of Alabama:
Arnaud Bertrand – @RnaudBertrand – 15:28 UTC · Feb 15, 2025
Extremely interesting proposal by Wang Yi in his speech that I haven't seen anyone talk about yet: he proposed to merge the Belt and Road Initiative with Europe's own version of it.
That's the quote: "China is willing to synergize high-quality Belt and Road cooperation with the European Union’s Global Gateway strategy, so as to empower each other and empower the entire world."
Europe should really consider it. …
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Other issues:
Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review – OT 2025-032
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