Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
January 7, 2025
WaPo Editors – Ending The War Is Worse Than Losing

The Washington Post editors have long argued for prolonging the war in Ukraine.

In November 2022, when Ukraine was in a good position to negotiate an end to the war, they argued against it:

Mr. Zelensky and his supporters in the West undoubtedly understand that peace talks might eventually be necessary, his commitment to victory notwithstanding. And yet to declare that, or even imply it, before the time is right — before Ukraine’s armed forces have exhausted every opportunity to regain occupied territory — would convey slackening commitment. And that, in turn, can only convince Mr. Putin that time is on his side and that he should prolong the fighting.

Since then Ukraine’s armed forces have exhausted every opportunity to regain occupied territory – and failed. Russia was then and is now convinced that time is on its side.

Now, finally, the editors acknowledge that their war against Russia in Ukraine is lost. But they still insist that this can not be allowed to be formalized in a ceasefire or peace treaty.

While they are stomping their feet they fail to present an alternative:

Ukraine risks losing the war. A Trump-imposed bad deal would be worse. (archived)
A settlement that dismembers Ukraine and rewards Putin will undermine U.S. credibility.

As Russia is the dominating power in the war in Ukraine there will only be one deal that can be had. It will be along the parameters the Russia's President Putin has laid out. That deal will certainly be less than optimal for the U.S. side but how would it be 'worse' for Ukraine than losing the war?

As for 'credibility':

A pullback now would convey that the United States and its allies lack staying power and that their promises come time-stamped as valid only until the next election date. How might China take such a message as its autocratic president, Xi Jinping, contemplates whether to make a military move to try to seize the self-governing democratic island of Taiwan?

The U.S. 'lack of staying power' is a feature of its democracy. It is well known that U.S. citizen's opinions about supporting a war tend to change over time. Just ask the Vietnamese or the Taliban for experience with this. No unrealistic fear mongering about China will change that fact.

It is however good to learn that the editors (finally) see the situation of Ukraine as unsustainable as it is:

Ukraine is also losing troops at a rate far beyond what it can sustain and continue fighting. The official casualty estimate of 400,000 killed or wounded is considered a vast undercount. Thousands of exhausted Ukrainian soldiers are deserting the front lines.

The editors know that it is over for Ukraine but they still reject to acknowledge the consequences. They say that a deal over Ukraine, any deal, would be bad but there is not even a hint of what an alternative might be:

Ukraine can hardly survive another year of this devastating war. But the haste to find a negotiated settlement could produce a bad one that would reward Mr. Putin for his land grab and guarantee he will launch a new attack for more territory once he has a chance to rebuild his depleted arsenal. A poor settlement would also leave Ukrainians bitter after seeing their homes, schools and factories destroyed, and friends and family members killed. Much of their anger would be directed at the Western backers who betrayed them. This is a fight America, and Ukraine, cannot lose, especially with a bad deal.

The war is lost. A hasty settlement will be bad. Russia will be embolden and the Ukrainians will be sad.

But what else is there to do? The editors don't know. They thus close with a sentence that does not even ('cannot lose') make sense.

Comments

Posted by: Newbie | Jan 8 2025 21:58 utc | 203
Absolutely, the well was always poisoned, but many still contained more water than poison and the inhabitants knew to go from well to well, if they wanted to make the most of the resource.
I think the internet is an excellent resource, if info is triangulated, different, contradictory sources are used and it’s adding to a pre-existing knowledge base, not functioning as the sole repository. As with everything it’s a resource and care has to be taken with the provenance of the original source, or secondary sources that are rarely attributed by some creators. We had a strict code of practice, sourcing internet material, that had to be adhered to IIRC an addition to the Harvard Referencing.
Visual photo surveillance is literally an art form, especially BDA, though it can be subject to simple but ingenious decoys, the soil circles after the Blackbuck op comes to mind. The IDF found that because autistic people are largely ego-free their analysis would not be subject to the two cognitive issues discussed. Their work influenced other similar organisations using OSINT and CSINT sources to create similarly staffed analytical cells or departments (GCHQ for example, whose unit is run by an autistic person). Ego can kill product, lack of ego can kill understanding, it’s a tricky balance, which is why these organisations are replicating the heigh-tech company structures, though I’m not sure about the video arcade games, bean bags and play areas!

Posted by: Milites | Jan 8 2025 23:05 utc | 201

Posted by: Milites | Jan 8 2025 23:05 utc | 205
Don’t confuse the ability to dump info “as is” which does not follow ego censuring, with extracting the needed angle (ego is there but a picture is also there and you don’t fool yourself, if the picture is incomplete as in missing on critical details you’ll have the same issue, things will be filled in with experience aka preferred pre-conceptions)
Spectrum does not mean low ego, only you don’t give a damn about the ideas you had before having good hard data, .learning more is more fulfilling than being right when you didn’t know better. There is still risk of pride, but on a completely different angle.

Posted by: Newbie | Jan 8 2025 23:26 utc | 202

Most interesting !
Not really, the yankee reporters must be living in the upper stratosphere on magic mushrooms/cocaine/heroin/LSD.
Whatever. Sadly, only a complete mononeuron oxymoron, would think that way.
So many USSA armchair generals are living in a fools world in yankee(dutch word for pirates).
LOL 😮
News to come. As apparently the newly erected yet to be enthroned Rapist(convicted)/Serial Liar Presidente/Diktator elect. In the Union of the Soviet States of Amerika. Has drafted plans to invade both Greenland and it’s northern neighbour oil rich “Canuckistan” in 2025.
Canuckistan, by the way supplies the USSA with greater than 65% of the crude oil imported into the USSA. In any given year.
Interesting times……..

Posted by: BadDealMotorsOn | Jan 9 2025 1:04 utc | 203

Posted by: Newbie | Jan 8 2025 23:26 utc | 206
It’s more to do with the role of ego, when determining the advocacy of a position. Higher functioning autistic individuals have a weaker sense of self, which can correspond to a greater ability to examine a subject more thoroughly than those who invest too much of their self-image into their conclusions. This is why terms like the self-reflective practitioner and others originate, a recognition that at each stage of the process the analyser/observer must decouple themselves and objectively examine their theory/predictions.
The Unit 9900 experience with visual analysis was partly because of the work on the ‘Where’s Wally?’ Research by leading experts on ASD’s, with some on the spectrum translating their social awkwardness into an ability to recognise objects without being visually distracted by background ‘clutter’. The GCHQ experience is that the autistic analysts are far more open to new information, especially that which challenges previous theories, which links to your reference to attitudes to learning.
My original comment was addressed to some posters who sometimes reveal more about themselves, in their responses, than the target of their analysis. So the ego comment was really only aimed at the ability to incorporate new information or perspectives when they directly challenge previously held beliefs. No one, after all can cause Elon Musk of being devoid of an ego, but he follows the data, irrespective to where it might lead. The danger though becomes when that new data is misunderstood, interpreted incorrectly (I Robot) or deliberately misrepresented to an individual (the Greta Thunberg syndrome).

Posted by: Milites | Jan 9 2025 1:36 utc | 204

DS update:
https://deepstatemap.live/en#6/49.4383200/32.0526800
Another slow day for the RFA, taking 15 kmsq. Compare to NOV pace of 23/day or DEC pace of 13/day.
Various small advances in S Donetsk, from Kurakhove to Toretsk.

Posted by: Anonymous | Jan 9 2025 2:49 utc | 205

Also, some decent movement in Kursk in NW of incursion (towards Malaa Locknia). No RFA gain, but significant loss of UFA control (became gray).

Posted by: Anonymous | Jan 9 2025 3:06 utc | 206

Re: Posted by: Newbie | Jan 7 2025 18:06 utc | 29

Interesting, and the final part particularly interesting.
The other day someone mentioned a trump-xi-putin summit and I asked “what would they be dividing?”
“He suggests that China, Russia, and the U.S. may have reached an agreement to allow each other to take control of Taiwan, Ukraine, and Greenland, respectively.”
If we extend it slightly, to china sea, some europe and any part of americas they care to command…
A lowballing would be the one mentioned, an extreme one would be close to 1984’s blocks.
And it all starts with failing to break RF in ukraine.

Posted by: Newbie | Jan 7 2025 18:06 utc | 29
Absolute fantasy island BS here.
The Americans control 80% of Ukraine and 100% of Taiwan – and effectively – already 100% of Greenland.
Why would they be conceding and giving up that control to adversaries?!?
Why?!?
Also – Russia has stated (REPEATEDLY) the Americans are ” AGREEMENT INCAPABLE “ – so why would they be making ANY agreements with these Agreements Incapable folk?!?
Could they really be that dumb? No, of course not.
There is certainly NO DEAL .

Posted by: Julian | Jan 9 2025 6:18 utc | 207

Re: Posted by: jared | Jan 7 2025 19:54 utc | 68

It is funny how people seem to take the words of Russian leadership pretty lightly.
Russia says that freezing the conflict is not an option and then blogmentators go on to discuss the likelihood of a freeze, as if Russia opinion doesnt really matter.

My impression is that a freeze would amount to a defeat for Russia and its people would be very discouraged by that.
Perhaps that will prove to be necessary – we shall see.
But I think that only a complete defeat of Ukraine to which they submit whole-heartedly and at their own initiative (and tell the west to f’-off) will provide lasting peace. That would not have to mean that Russia conquers the whole of Ukraine.
I heard an interview by one of the old masters saying the “nobody” expected that the conflict would go on for this long. My memory (which is not what it used to be) is completely the opposite – I think that originally Russia had a plan to end it quickly, but did not work out and I think it was the US and others saying that it would last for 5 or more years (they wanted another Afghanistan for Russia).

Except – Russia has FROZEN EVERY EXTERNAL CONFLICT It’s been involved in in the past 30 years.
EVERY. SINGLE. ONE.
That is what Russia does – every time – Armenia/Azerbaijan, Syria, Kosovo, South Ossetia/Abkhazia, Ukraine 2014-15, Croatia, Bosnia/Republika Srpska, Moldova/Transnistria – no clear wins in any of those.

Posted by: Julian | Jan 9 2025 7:11 utc | 208

Except – Russia has FROZEN EVERY EXTERNAL CONFLICT It’s been involved in in the past 30 years.
EVERY. SINGLE. ONE.
That is what Russia does – every time – Armenia/Azerbaijan, Syria, Kosovo, South Ossetia/Abkhazia, Ukraine 2014-15, Croatia, Bosnia/Republika Srpska, Moldova/Transnistria – no clear wins in any of those.
Posted by: Julian | Jan 9 2025 7:11 utc | 212
Except none of the above involved Russia directly.
To say Russia’s common-sense approach by trying to diffuse those conflict as directly involving Russia is dishonest.
I am speaking for myself, have noticed all of your posts include either outright lies or MSM talking points.

Posted by: Suresh | Jan 9 2025 7:21 utc | 209

Re: Posted by: Paco | Jan 7 2025 22:19 utc | 99

Watch out for a 180 and not a 360, as brilliant Annalena would say, it’s Mexico who will claim up to the Arkansas and Dodge, as stipulated by previous treaties, even though the world knows what a treaty means for uncle Sam, Mexico is 130 million people and growing, plus many millions already in place, so careful with those appetizing dreams. Nice story that one about the efficient gringo manager.

And how exactly would Mexico ever enforce such a claim?
They’ve lost every war they’re ever fought against the United States and that ain’t changing any time soon.

Posted by: Julian | Jan 9 2025 8:06 utc | 210

Posted by: Julian | Jan 9 2025 8:06 utc | 212
Very simple Julian, making love. Fifty million and counting while white trash can hang on to their six pack and porno channels. Enjoy. Alaska is a different matter, it’ll be taken care of too.

Posted by: Paco | Jan 9 2025 9:50 utc | 211

Oops sorry Julian, its not fifty, it is sixty five, but the interesting part is that overall population growth is over 70% latino. The love you take is equal to the love you make, sounds familiar? You guys are not making much love around the world, that’s why you’re gonna take it, its coming, Trumff or not.
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2024/population-estimates-characteristics.html

Posted by: Paco | Jan 9 2025 9:57 utc | 212

And how exactly would Mexico ever enforce such a claim?
They’ve lost every war they’re ever fought against the
United States and that ain’t changing any time soon.
Posted by: Julian | Jan 9 2025 8:06 utc | 212
& @ Posted by: Paco | Jan 9 2025 9:50 utc | 213 / 214
About 20 years ago I was in the SF Bay Area and a guy
complained to me that the Mexicans were taking California over.
I corrected him and said, “No, John they’re taking it back”.
Mexifornia

Posted by: waynorinorway | Jan 9 2025 10:42 utc | 213

Julian
“They’ve lost every war they’re ever fought against the United States and that ain’t changing any time soon.” Vietnam? The US also lost in Afghanistan.

Posted by: schmoe | Jan 9 2025 12:53 utc | 214

War Mapper has his end of month calcs out.
https://x.com/War_Mapper/status/1876788865219858654
Directionally similar to Deep State, slight differences. WM shows 13.5+ (round up to 14) kmsq/day in DEC, within Ukraine. This rate of gain was less than NOV, OCT or SEP.
Note that for all the wailing about DS being biased, all the mappers (even crazy RFA biased ones like Ayden or DivGen) will show similar changes over the course of a month. Whether you’re slow (or “first, first” too fast) to give RFA credit for a change, it evens out over the course of a month, since your baseline (end of last month) is different.
Definitely see a stop in the “acceleration” or “collapse” or the like. Now, I agree that weather is a very likely (and good) excuse for the difference. However, the main cheerleaders disagreed that winter would slow down the Russians. Also, it clearly shows that Ukraine has not “Ayden-collapsed”, given they can hinder RFA to a very slow rate of advance (literally slower than a snail’s march).
Most of the gains in Ukraine, were in Donetsk but with noticeable inches forward in Luhansk and Kharkiv (northerly) oblasts.
Also 17 kmsq (additional to above) within Kursk. Pace in Kursk seems to have improved in JAN so far. But of course that is not in the DEC numbers.

Posted by: Anonymous | Jan 9 2025 13:36 utc | 215

From Pravda:
“The oil depot in Engels (1000 km from Ukraine) continues to burn after a Ukrainian drones strike, and the fire is spreading, engulfing other tanks, which exploded.
Governor Busargin reported that two Emergencies Ministry employees died in the process of extinguishing the fire. One was taken to hospital.
Smoke covered half the city, the flames are visible from almost anywhere in Engels. The governor assures that air samples are being taken by specialists from the Rospotrebnadzor department, and no excess of pollutants has been recorded.
A state of emergency has been declared in the city.”
The oil and fuel depot supplies the Engels-2 Air Base, which houses the 121st Guards Heavy Bomber Aviation Regiment, which operates Tu-160 bombers, and the 184th Heavy Bomber Aviation Regiment with Tu-95 MS planes.

Posted by: Perimetr | Jan 9 2025 14:50 utc | 216

Posted by: Perimetr | Jan 9 2025 14:50 utc | 218
I am reminded of Brian Eno’s song Here Comes the Warm Jets.
Another wave of Russian strikes.

Posted by: jopalolive | Jan 9 2025 22:00 utc | 217

aristodemos | Jan 8 2025 1:16 utc | 113
*** Each and every Deutsche regime has been but a puppet entity. They are still under the bootheals of U$$A occupation forces. Very few Americans have ever accessed this information and thusly are ignorant of the true status of that nation which will suffer its 80th year of occupation in the month of May.***
Thanks largely to its “greatest ever statesman” (as the Establishment mass-media habitually calls him nowadays) Churchill — half-Yank, persistently drunken, mentally ill, owned by the Zionists, relentlessly self-promoting and self-deluding — Britain has actually been under US occupation slightly longer than Germany.
But if course the public were never officially told that … instead, their heads got filled with drivel and lies such as “we won the war”, and an alleged ‘special relationship’ with the corporatist USA in reality somewhat akin to bottoms-up perpetual servitude.

Posted by: Cynic | Jan 10 2025 1:15 utc | 218

The article in WP may belong to the genre “unreliable narrator” which was once described as follows: “While the ostensible message of the story is that the main character is wicked, clues scattered in the text show the real message: the narrator is insane”.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Jan 13 2025 10:24 utc | 219